Downward revisions and finance and insurance job losses paint a pessimistic picture for the U.S. labor market.
In the last jobs numbers report before a contentious U.S. mid-term election, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls added 29,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%
The BLS also revised its July numbers for a second time, now showing a loss of 10,000 jobs compared to its first revision, which upped the number of jobs created to 21,000 from a loss of 23,000 jobs. It also revised August’s number down to 132,000 from 162,000.
The report may have underwhelmed market expectations, but economists at RBC say that doesn’t mean the labor market is weak.
“The 29,000 payroll gain is quite healthy in the context of our breakeven estimate of 20,000 jobs per month,” they wrote in an RBC Economics note. Gains were broad-based, and the declines more likely reflect retirements than layoffs, especially in sectors with an older workforce (e.g., the median worker age in financial services is 44.2 years compared to 42.1 years overall). Despite a slowdown in health care hiring, strength was driven by the goods sector, which continued to recover from the post–Liberation Day layoffs earlier in 2025.”
Finance Sector Feels the Bite
Despite the overall positive number, the finance and insurance sector lost 7,000 jobs, with credit intermediation and related activities accounting for 4,600 fewer jobs, followed by insurance carrier and related activities, which lost 2,300 positions.
Employment in the capital markets remained unchanged, with no job gains or losses compared to August.
The information industry took a harder hit than the finance and insurance sector, losing 10,000 jobs. Publishing lost 4,000 jobs, while broadcast and content providers lost 3,000 jobs, and computing infrastructure providers, data processing, and web hosting and related services eliminated 1,600 jobs.
Private Optimism
Using a proprietary methodology developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, ADP is far sunnier in its view, estimating that U.S. private employers added 90,000 jobs over the same period, according to its ADP National Employment Report for September.
“It’s a strong report. After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded, and pay growth remained solid,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in a prepared statement.
However, the report’s authors have no good news for those working in financial activities, which lost the most jobs (-16,000) of any sector, while professional and business services lost the second-largest amount (-11,000).
The information sector managed to eke out growth, adding 3,000 new positions.
Mid-sized companies (50 to 499 employees) created more than half of the new jobs (54,000). Small companies (1 to 49 employees) added 23,000 new positions, while large companies (more than 500 employees) added the fewest jobs (14,000).
However, not everyone shares the optimism.
The BLS report reflects an economy that has not set itself up for growth, Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Employment Law Project, told Global Finance.
“Nobody was planning to build a manufacturing economy in the United States again,” she said. “Growth was going to come from innovation. If we get rid of the core government research, that is what was going to build jobs of the future, I’m afraid this is par for the course for the foreseeable future until either the AI bubble crashes or AI turns out to be amazing and starts taking over jobs.”
Rob Daly covers fintech and the economy. Contact him at rdaly@gfmag.com.