finance

How China’s $7.4T trade strategy impacts global supply chains—and steps CFOs must take now to regain control.

This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine.

Ram Charan is an adviser to CEOs and boards who built his reputation advising CEOs and boards inside some of the world’s largest companies. In his new book, China’s 90% Model: China Has America by the Throat: Here’s How to Fight Back and WIN, he turns that lens on the trade war reshaping global supply chains.

In this Global Salon conversation, he lays out how Beijing uses cheap exports to flood markets and squeeze out rivals — and what CFOs need to do, in the boardroom and beyond, to respond.

Global Finance: Your book lays out the scale of China’s trade surplus and cash reserves. Can you walk us through what you believe are the actual numbers?

Ram Charan: China has earned over time $7.4 trillion in hard cash [e.g., dollars, yen, euros] and 2,250 tons of gold. It is now earning hard cash at a rate of $1.5 trillion a year. My forecast is $1.8 trillion. If nothing is done, in five years China will have an additional $10 trillion in cash in dollars, yen, euros, South Korean won, and other currencies of countries that trade with them. 

Negotiations between President Trump and President Xi Jinping have taken place. They have now stopped because President Xi has clearly declared, “If you do this, I will supply the supply chain. If you don’t do this, I will stop supplying the supply chain.” He’s done the same thing with India.

GF: The Indian rupee is down about 10% against the U.S. dollar compared to a year ago. What does India’s currency situation tell us about the mechanics of the risk from China?  

Charan: Nobody knows the outcome of that crisis [the currency and trade deficit spiral] like the Indian currency going to hell, and trade deficits, which are increasing [India’s bilateral trade deficit with China grew from about $44 billion in 2020 to roughly $100 billion in 2025]. If you call 10 business people of reasonably sized companies in India, now they understand it. 

The reason? The currency. They’re taking action. Your business model has got to change. You better make cash flow [a priority]. If nothing is done, your currency will decline, as it has in India. Your balance of payments will decline, and that is a real cycle.

GF: If a CFO agrees with you on the China threat, what three things should they do in the next 12 months, and what should they avoid?

Charan: First, be defensive. Analyze your country. Which imports are coming from China? If nothing is stopped, what will it do to your country’s currency and balance of payments? A country’s currency is directly relevant to the CFO. 

Second, the CFO should look at which industries are totally dependent on China. If the industry stops, what happens to the country’s GDP? What happens to the value chain? Because almost all value chains, in some way, are interconnected. The CFO has to allocate cash for defensive purposes.

Third, the CFO should substitute China [products] if they can. But the cost of every single thing non-Chinese is very high. How would this change the market? How would they sell, and how would they price? I recommended they start a war room, every morning, see what’s changed, what’s the pattern, who’s driving it, and what are the signals.

GF: What about going on the offense?

Charan: On the offensive side, identify the gaps the Chinese are not filling, including which countries and segments, and where the opportunities lie. The best thing I’ve learned is to think 20 years out. Just think: What will humans need 20 years out? 

For example, there’s the Adani Group in India. The [founder] predicted that India would need ports 25 years ago. Now he’s the largest private port developer and operator in India. Look for those opportunities. You don’t spend your money on a 20-year basis, but you learn how to get there. Get three or four people on the payroll to investigate and look at the technologies.

A company is not competing with a company in China. A company is competing against President Xi Jinping of China, so it has to pull together as an industry. Go to the government. Stop fighting alone. India is doing this actively. Europe is struggling; they don’t have an answer yet.

GF: What is China’s impact on the European auto industry? 

Charan: Europe is at a major crossroads. Europe doesn’t have a strategy. Germany’s auto giants spent decades helping build China’s car industry; now, they are outcompeted and heavily dependent on China. Volkswagen is already moving into defense, so that single indicator shows they know the Chinese are coming. The destruction of the auto industry is a major blow to Germany, including parts suppliers and chemical and energy suppliers. They don’t yet know how to deal with it. I would say one option for them: get a hold of Trump and combine three or four countries just for the auto industry.

GF: Do you see boards and CFOs as locked into short-termism by their fiduciary duty to shareholders, even when the long-term strategic risk is larger?

Charan: There are exceptions, but it’s a fact. I sit in the boardrooms. The market drives short-termism. But the more important point is they are unaware that China is attacking their industry. There is no manufacturing industry in the world that is unaffected by China’s strategy, directly or indirectly.

GF: You’ve said there are tools to wage a financial war with China. How fast can these be implemented, and how confident are you?

Charan: Saudi Arabia probably could fight, because China depends on oil. The Saudis have control of the price of oil. Small countries can’t fight alone. America alone cannot fight. It has to be coordinated. There are tools for a financial war with China. If Brussels and Washington can work together, Chinese power will be reduced.

GF: How can finance leaders fund next-generation industries where China is ahead?

Charan: In a crisis, you have to have good execution and a dedicated team. We did that in World War II. This is an economic war, and people don’t realize it, so each company is doing its own thing. 

You select the industries, assign full-time people. We must have a department of manufacturing and technology, which I’ve recommended to President Trump, in the U.S., in Europe, in Japan, in South Korea, and in Israel. People have to understand that the cost and the price China charges for products is absolutely not real. It is based on [the fact] that you incur losses internally and earn a trillion dollars in hard cash. Therefore, your profit is on a national basis. It is not on an industry basis.

GF: Beyond solar panels, batteries, and rare earths, what should CFOs be watching in supply chains that they’re not?

Charan: First, most important, are the ingredients that go into the chemical industry, APIs [active pharmaceutical ingredients]. Then, in biology, they take the molecules, they have very fast testing, build it, and now begin to come in at a tenth of the price. 

I have gone to DuPont and other companies to see what China needs from us and what they’re buying. But they know our people are not doing the detailed work. The people who are advising Donald Trump are economists. You need chemical engineers and biological engineers. You need the R&D people in Washington to deal with this. Economists and consultants cannot do it.

GF: Isn’t China under great strain, due to the challenging job market for young workers, the housing collapse, and extremely thin profit margins?

Charan: President Xi has said many times: austerity, austerity, austerity. I believe he correctly realized the real estate booms and busts were created by the central bank. So he’s letting it cool for a long time, because his concern is the threat to the Chinese Communist Party from inside China. He’s very clear about it; that is, that going forward, it may take a loss, a lower GDP.

The rural areas are not in great shape. President Xi is taking that calculated risk. But selecting industries, giving them money, and creating hyperscale: That is the real model. Civil control is total; students are under full control. 

GF: Twenty years out, will AI and robotics change the manufacturing equation for finance and operations leaders?

Charan: If you don’t have industry, you are nobody, [even if] you use AI, robotics, and automation. Any country that says it will go without manufacturing, I guarantee, will not be a democratic country and probably won’t survive.

GF: What practical tools can finance leaders use to act on what you’ve described?

Charan: Figure out the whole supply chain’s vulnerabilities, put an industry coalition together, and then try to get to your government and say: Here is the gap. If we don’t fill this gap against China, this industry will go away.

Weld Royal is a contributing writer based in the U.S.

The largest North American and European banks posted double-digit gains as higher-for-longer inflation looms.

All the biggest North American and European banks expect full-year 2026 profits to meet or exceed projections, as AI spending and a surge in market and investment banking activity fueled second-quarter profits.

With drama surrounding AI disruption in the tech sector and gyrations in the commodities markets tied to the war in the Middle East, trading volumes have been robust all year, including the first month of the third quarter.

Christopher Marinac, a banking analyst at Brean Capital, said a steepening Treasury yield curve is allowing banks to improve spreads on loans and securities.

“The way banks are pricing loans is just stable to slightly better, and that is bullish for net [income],” Marinac told Global Finance. “That is the sort of positive undertone.”

The earnings underscored that optimism. Industry leader JPMorgan Chase reported a 41% increase in second-quarter net income, while investment banking giants Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley posted gains of 84% and 57.7%, respectively. Bank of America’s profit rose 27%, Citigroup’s 45%, and Wells Fargo’s 16.6%. Canadian giant Royal Bank of Canada rose 25%. European banks also delivered strong results, led by UBS with a huge 134% increase; Santander jumped 17%; Barclays added 15.3%; and Deutsche Bank gained 10%.

Inflation remains a threat to growth, and investor jitters about shifts in tech spending away from more traditional software names have fed stock market volatility, along with the latest Fed moves.

But for now, banks are doing extremely well, with mega IPOs such as Anthropic and OpenAI potentially on deck, following the record $75 billion SpaceX IPO and an $85 billion capital raise for Alphabet, which boosted investment-banking fees in the second quarter.

The regulatory environment remains relatively friendly, and larger M&A deals continue to occur, including the $10 billion acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals by Vertex Pharmaceuticals, announced on July 10.

The performance so far bodes well for 2026 bonuses, given a strong first half of the year.

JPMorgan, BofA, Santander All Looking Up

During second-quarter calls with Wall Street analysts, JPMorgan Chase raised its net interest income outlook for the year, while Deutsche Bank said it will meet or exceed its net interest income outlook, and Bank of America projected 2026 net income growth at the upper end of its 6% to 8% range.

Barclays raised its 2026 profit forecast to £31.5 billion ($42 billion) from £31 billion and said it still expects to meet its full-year performance goals.

UBS Group CFO Todd Tuckner said he’s “confident” the bank will exceed its 2026 targets, with a formal update expected later this year. He added that the bank is “well-positioned” to outperform its exit-rate return target despite market uncertainty around inflation and interest rates. 

Santander, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Royal Bank of Canada kept their guidance unchanged but signaled stronger earnings ahead.

“Not everybody is giving the increase of guidance, but I think there’s higher conviction in the existing guidance for those who did comment,” Brean Capital’s Marinac said.

Looking ahead, the big banks are still optimistic about AI, both to improve internal efficiency and deal-making.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said AI investments are feeding capital needs for infrastructure, energy and data centers — not just core technology.

“This is creating significant opportunities for Goldman Sachs to provide structuring, financing, risk management, and capital markets execution across both public and private markets,” Solomon said.

Deutsche Bank Group Treasurer Richard Stewart said private pension reforms are creating a positive opportunity for Germany’s largest bank, alongside AI, “which is evolving even faster than we expected.”

Banking analyst Marinac said he expects European banks to benefit from the need to increase military and domestic spending.

“As everybody looks a little bit more inward, that’s probably good for business from a bank’s standpoint,” he said.

Some Big Banks Slash Jobs

Along with favorable conditions in the bond market, another earnings tailwind for banks has come from headcount reductions and productivity gains.

Citigroup cut 5,000 jobs in the second quarter, bringing its total headcount down to 219,000. Wells Fargo reduced its headcount by 3,500 to 197,000, and UBS eliminated 2,500 positions, bringing its total headcount to under 100,000. 

Analysts asked banks such as Wells Fargo how AI is shaping the job picture as technology advances.

Wells Fargo CFO Mike Santomassimo said the bank has “a lot of room to grow” to improve efficiency. But it also continues to hire branch bankers, investment advisors, commercial banking relationship managers, investment bankers, and traders.

“Certainly, technology and AI help us get at aspects of that in a different way or faster than maybe in the past,” Santomassimo said. “We expect that we’ll continue to see more efficiency from here.”

One key metric for banks’ future performance is employment levels, which have been robust in the U.S. As long as people keep working and paying their bills and business activity keeps up, credit quality will remain healthy, and the big banks will prosper as the year plays out, market observers said.

Steve Gelsi is a contributing writer based in the U.S.

Holcim CFO Steffen Kindler on executing a regional spinoff, AI value creation, and team leadership.

This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine.

Steffen Kindler has served as Holcim’s CFO since 2023. He brings with him two decades of finance leadership experience from his time at Nestlé. He now guides the financial strategy of the Swiss multinational building materials giant, which generated CHF15.7 billion (approximately $19.7 billion) in net sales last year.

Holcim, listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, commands a global footprint with more than 45,000 employees. It operates across 43 markets in Europe, Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

Global Finance: What do you consider your main achievements since joining Holcim?

Steffen Kindler: A major achievement was helping drive the decision to split Holcim into a North American company and a rest-of-the-world company, and then successfully executing the spinoff. We completed a financial carve-out, established the new company’s finance organization, and listed the North American entity on the New York Stock Exchange. Since then, both companies have operated smoothly and separately.

Another major achievement was defining a standalone company strategy and equity story. We identified where we want to grow, how we want to allocate capital, the financial KPIs we want to be measured against, and our people plan. The strategy was very well received by the financial markets, reflected in strong share price appreciation throughout 2025. 

Since then, the focus has been on executing that strategy quarter after quarter, demonstrating progress on both the strategy and our financial results, and earning the confidence and support of shareholders and stakeholders.

GF: Why did you split off the North American entity?

Kindler: The logic was sustainability and different market environments. In Europe, decarbonizing the product portfolio and production process was a key driver of our strategy and financial success. In the U.S., customers were more focused on volume growth, and the sustainability strategy was not as relevant. We felt the regions were hindering each other more than helping. 

GF: Holcim expects AI to generate CHF200 million in recurring EBIT by 2028. How so?

Kindler: We began exploring AI more than three years ago and felt we were leading in that area. Technology has now matured to the point that we can reliably say it is creating value. Rather than focusing on savings or restructuring, we see AI as a value-creation tool.

Key applications include predictive maintenance, where AI anticipates machine breakdowns, and commercial sales where AI analyzes large amounts of data to optimize our offers to customers for all types of building projects. We are already seeing tangible benefits of roughly CHF30 million this year, even before scaling these programs further.

GF: Can you provide details on how you expect to achieve that EBIT goal?

Kindler: Holcim said that roughly half of the CHF200 million AI benefit will come from additional profit and the other half from cost avoidance. Predictive maintenance helps avoid losses by reducing breakdowns, while AI supporting the commercial teams creates additional value by giving them better insights, faster project proposals, and the ability to participate in more projects. It gives commercial teams insights into how the different inputs of an offer were determined and reduces the manual work involved in bidding. By automating data analysis and proposals, teams can evaluate more projects and focus on judgment and decision-making rather than information gathering.

GF: How important is it to have a strong finance team?

Kindler: I cannot do a job of this scale on my own: the team is everything. I spend about a third of my time on people-related topics, including succession planning, coaching, and career development. We have a structured process for discussing talent, open jobs, strengths and weaknesses, and career paths with regional CFOs and direct reports. It is also important to keep people motivated by giving them interesting roles, exposure, and support through an open-door approach.  

Tiziana Barghini is a contributing writer based in New York.

Treasury teams are adapting to ongoing market volatility by treating uncertainty as the norm.

This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine.

Treasury teams now navigate sustained market volatility by treating uncertainty as a core factor in everyday
decision-making, rather than an exception. That’s among the central findings of the latest Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer Corporate Treasury Report, whose survey of finance and treasury professionals found 72% now treat volatility as “business as usual,” up from 41% in 2025.

Strikingly, this finding emerged even before the Middle East conflict threw global markets into turmoil. Follow-up interviews conducted since (between February and March 2026) reflect the impact of the early days of the crisis. Just 8% (down from 17% in 2025) reported a material negative impact from macroeconomic and geopolitical events, while 3% reported a material positive outlook (up slightly from 2% in 2025). As of May 2026, energy prices and U.S. tariff uncertainty—in particular the Supreme Court’s Learning Resources v. Trump ruling — were the chief concerns.

The survey, conducted with the Association of Corporate Treasurers, reveals that 45% of corporates are looking to diversify their debt while 55% are not—reflecting both tighter credit conditions and a search for flexibility. The report’s authors suggest the findings point to the economy being at or near a cyclical trough.

Survey respondents said they expected to increase expenditure in 2026 on debt repayment, returns to shareholders and share buybacks, and to reduce spending on acquisitions and capex — suggesting a consolidation, rather than expansion, mindset.

There was also a notable decline in respondents prioritizing cash management, to 71% in 2026 from 91% in 2025. The focus was instead on managing interest rate volatility, derivatives, supply chain and technology risks.

Stacey Pang, of counsel at HSF Kramer, told Global Finance that cash management is, and always will be, a central focus: “The data may simply show that some treasurers have successfully implemented cash management programs in the last year, and therefore have time to prioritize other projects.”

Looking ahead, Pang anticipates the “promise of AI” and its more meaningful deployment will be a key priority over the next 12 to 24 months — with the caveat that AI “cannot and should not replace the ultimate decision-making role of treasury professionals.”

Deborah Ritchie is a contributing writer based in London.

For these CFOs, summer is where the year is won or lost.

This article appears in the July/August issue of Global Finance Magazine.

Every spring, airlines, cruise lines, travel booking platforms, golf tour operators, race promoters and other seasonal businesses begin trying to answer the question that will define much of their year: How is summer shaping up? For their CFOs, a few months of peak demand often determine whether the entire year meets expectations.

This year, the early signals have been broadly encouraging. Despite conflict in the Middle East that rattled European and Asian bookings, travel advisories in Mexico, and lingering concerns about consumer sentiment, many travel companies reported strong demand. Europe’s TUI Group reported its best-ever first half, with 7.9 million summer bookings already in place, while Expedia posted its highest first-quarter EBITDA margin in 15 years.

But the stakes remain unusually high because many of these businesses generate a disproportionate share of their annual revenue in a relatively short window. Whether they operate airlines, racetracks, or golf tours, their finance chiefs spend months forecasting demand, managing labor and capital, and preparing for risks—from weather disruptions to geopolitical shocks—that could derail the season.

The Aviation CFO: Gauging Bad Weather

Today, by contrast, consumers want to travel, and the booking window is holding steady. That signal is especially important to the CFOs at companies whose fortunes depend on summer travel. 

Max Mertz is CFO and co-owner of Alaska Seaplanes, which operates a fleet of 20 aircraft based in Juneau and serves communities throughout southeast Alaska. Summer brings millions of visitors to the state, many seeking flights over glaciers, bear safaris, and trips to remote fishing lodges. 

“June, July, August, and then, if you add the shoulder season, which starts around mid-May and lasts until about a week after Labor Day, account for two-thirds of our revenue. It’s critical, honestly,” Mertz says.

Bookings at his company’s tourism subsidiary arrive months in advance, enabling year-over-year comparisons. Fishing lodges commit capacity based on their own guest projections. Strong retail sales and corporate bonus cycles in the Lower 48 states translate into lodge demand. Construction projects and gold and silver mines in remote communities create predictable demand for cargo and charters.

The seasonal concentration is all about costs. 

“Aviation is a high fixed-cost industry,” Mertz says. “On a per-flight, per-unit basis, obviously the higher your volume, the more you cover fixed costs, so you’re making a good chunk of your bottom line as well.”

What makes Alaska Seaplanes unusual — even among seasonal businesses — is the extent to which weather inserts an uncontrollable financial variable. Anyone who has flown in Alaska knows how its dense cloud layer and mist can quickly form, grounding aircraft for days. Mertz has invested in reliability. Alaska Seaplanes has spent multiple seven-figure sums on specialized navigation systems that increase aircraft safety and reliability.

No Do-Overs: Running Racetracks

Weather also matters to Mike Morrisey. As CFO of Green Savoree Racing Promotions for the past 31 seasons, he oversees four motorsports race properties: Mid-Ohio; a newly built circuit in Markham, Ontario; St. Petersburg, Florida; and Portland, Oregon. “The summer is where you make your revenue,” he says.

Often, a big race weekend is a single 72-hour window when gate revenue, hospitality, suites, sponsorships, and concessions converge. There is no making it up later. 

“When the checkered flag drops, we have crews out there tearing it all down” at the temporary street racing circuits, Morrisey says. 

The leading indicators he watches for signs of summer success are ticket renewals and suite sales. The next forecasting cycle begins almost immediately after the prior season ends. 

“We typically launch ticket renewals in the fall for the following year,” Morrisey says. “St. Pete tickets go on sale in mid-September, and Mid-Ohio in mid- to late October.” Suite customers are approached for renewal while the race is still being torn down. 

The logistics of motorsports racing would likely surprise CFOs in other industries. Green Savoree owns roughly $4 million in portable grandstands and suite infrastructure. These aluminum structures sit in a St. Petersburg warehouse between events, are loaded onto about 40 trucks after the Florida race, and are shipped to Canada for use in Markham. The company operates with fewer than 50 full-time employees year-round, a number that swells to about 270 during the peak summer season. 

Golf’s Stark Scheduling Problem

Gordon Dalgleish co-founded Perry Golf in 1984 and remains president of the luxury golf travel company he and his brother built around the British Isles. The company is now majority-owned by private equity investors. His seasonal challenge is stark: He sells access to some of the world’s most coveted golf inventory in a region that is closed for business for roughly half the year.

“It is very seasonal, and it doesn’t matter what you do,” says Dalgleish. “You cannot sell golf trips for November. It gets dark and rainy.”

The business operates at near-full capacity during the peak season and near-zero outside it; the peak season runs from late April to early October. St. Andrews, which Dalgleish calls the engine that “drives the bus” for the entire Scottish golf hospitality industry, closes for three weeks in September and early October for the Royal and Ancient Golf Club’s autumn meeting and the Dunhill Links Championship. When St. Andrews closes, the broader market goes quiet. 

Booking lead time has changed dramatically, reshaping Perry Golf’s forecasting model. 

Pre-Covid, Dalgleish saw a fairly predictable 12-month booking cycle. Inquiries would begin in July for the following summer, slow through the holidays, and ramp back up in January and February, giving him a clear picture of the season by late February. Today, he sees inquiries for July 2028 arriving in spring 2026. By this Christmas, he expects to have 40% to 50% of next summer’s bookings in hand. 

One possible driver of this shift is affluent Americans, a key customer segment, who have reoriented their spending toward experiences rather than assets and who plan farther in advance to secure exactly what they want. However, the supply of premium Scottish golf inventory has barely grown. 

“There are 25 courses that are on everyone’s must-play list in Scotland,” Dalgleish notes. Demand is running ahead of last year’s pace, and father-son trips are booking at high volumes. “There’s an affluence slushing around in golf just now.”

The Franchise Model Meets the Heat Wave

Josh Greear models a different kind of seasonal pressure. As CFO of Maryland-based Authority Brands, which derives over 90% of its revenue and more than $2 billion in annual system sales from 15 home services franchise brands, he manages seasonal concentration across a portfolio of businesses, each facing different summer inflection points.

“Summer’s always been important to Authority Brands,” Greear says. Its America’s Swimming Pools franchise business faces heavy warm-weather demand. Consumers tend to seek the services of its Mosquito Squad brand as critters emerge in warm weather. One Hour Heating & Air is driven by heat waves, not the calendar. Figuring out when to hire is tricky.

“The hardest time to manage labor is on the shoulder of the seasons, when you’re seeing the largest change,” Greear observes. In a business like One Hour Heating and Air, if temperatures spike sharply and you’re not prepared, you miss the demand and usually have no easy way to make it up. Conversely, if you’ve overstaffed in anticipation of early summer, profitability erodes.

To better manage risk, Greear says Authority Brands has invested in large-language-model-driven forecasting that integrates local weather trends, historical demand patterns, and brand-specific variables at the ZIP code level. The business now uses multivariate models that ingest large datasets and distill them into actionable insights for specific locations. For summer 2026, Greear flagged a milder-than-typical start to the season in many parts of the US, which will affect the timing of demand for weather-sensitive brands.

Greear measures success by revenue, share gains, and franchisee health: “If we’re taking share, our customers are happy, and, most importantly, our franchise owners are healthy, then our business is in a very stable, long-term strong position.”

Another way to manage seasonal risk, however, is to diversify: in this case, by owning businesses that operate year-round, collectively if not individually.

California-based Youth Enrichment Brands traces its roots to summer camp and has spread that model across 12 months; its portfolio now includes US Sports Camps, i9 Sports, and School of Rock, which together smooth the seasonal curve. 

“As of 2025, less than 20% of our systemwide sales are derived from summer-based activities alone,” says Dustin Bertram, CFO. Winter programs, year-round leagues, and music instruction have broadened the revenue base. “The platforms that win will be those that remain focused on the customer experience, maintain diversified offerings, exercise disciplined cost control, and invest in evolving their programs.”

Weld Royal is a contributing writer based in the U.S.