finance

Fed Stress Test 2026: US Banks Pass Worst-Case Simulation

Major US banks proved resilient under the Fed’s severe 2026 stress test scenario.

This year’s Federal Reserve Stress Test, which involved 32 U.S. banks, simulated a hypothetical real estate Armageddon in which commercial real estate prices fell 39%, housing prices declined 30%, unemployment spiked to 10%, and economic output dropped commensurately.

The results were encouraging.

Capital declined only 1.6 percentage points in aggregate, according to a Federal Reserve Board statement. All of the banks remained at their minimum common equity Tier 1 capital requirements despite having $708 billion in total hypothetical loan losses.

Of the projected losses, the Fed identified approximately $200 billion in credit card losses, $160 billion in commercial and industrial loan losses, and $75 billion in commercial real estate losses.

“Today’s results underscore the strength of the banking system,” Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman said in a prepared statement. “As we work to increase the transparency and accountability of the stress test, public feedback will help us continue to improve and instill greater confidence in the stress test and its results.”

Compared to last year’s stress test, this one saw a larger decline in aggregate capital due to higher loan losses stemming from increased loan balances and the greater severity of certain test variables, and lower projected unrealized gains in bank securities resulting from smaller hypothetical interest rate declines in the scenario.

The results, however, showed a projected increase in capital from higher interest income driven by recent bank financial performance, offset by the same hypothetical interest rate declines.

Regardless of their results, participating banks will not need to adjust their stress capital buffers since the Fed voted to maintain the current requirements until 2027.

Test Format Change

“This year marks the transition between the Federal Reserve’s existing stress test framework and an updated one that aims to enhance transparency, reduce volatility, and provide opportunities for public comment on the models and scenarios,” said Greg Baer, president and CEO of the Bank Policy Institute, in a statement. “We hope that the revised framework will shed more light on the inputs and provide more certainty. We have also recommended that the most recent Basel proposal be updated to eliminate overlaps with the stress test. These combined changes will allow banks to plan capital more efficiently and support more lending and capital markets financing.”

The Fed opened the 2026 test scenario for comments in October 2025 to improve transparency while avoiding litigation it faced in previous years over opacity and defects in the test itself.

“Capital requirements should not be set in a way that is shielded from meaningful public scrutiny,” the Fed’s Bowman said. “As vice chair for supervision, I am committed to providing transparency and accountability for both the Board and our supervised firms. This is essential for maintaining the value of our stress testing program, and for supervision and regulation more broadly.”

Contact the author at rdaly@gfmag.com

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Ferrari’s marketing boss quits after troubled EV debut as former BMW executive steps in

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Ferrari has announced that Enrico Galliera, its chief marketing and commercial officer of more than 16 years, will step down, handing one of the most sensitive jobs in the luxury car world to an outsider.


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His successor, Massimiliano Di Silvestre, the former head of BMW’s Italian business, takes over on 1 July and will report directly to CEO Benedetto Vigna.

Galliera’s exit comes barely a month after Ferrari pulled the covers off the Luce, its first fully electric model, which received a reception few at the company were happy about.

The car, whose edgeless styling was developed with LoveFrom, the design studio founded by former Apple design chief Jony Ive, broke sharply from Ferrari’s traditional look and drew swift ridicule from enthusiasts and investors alike.

The backlash was unusually public for a brand accustomed to adoration.

Ferrari’s shares fell more than 8% in a single session after the reveal, a sharp market verdict on one of the industry’s most valuable names.

Critics lined up to attack the design, among them the company’s own former chairman, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, who warned that the brand was risking the destruction of a legend and went so far as to suggest the famous badge be removed from the car.

Italy’s deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, joined in, questioning the four-door model’s price, which starts at €550,000.

However, Ferrari has firmly rejected any link between the criticism and Galliera’s departure.

According to the company, he had decided to move on some time ago and agreed to remain in place through the Luce launch before pursuing what it described as a new chapter in his career.

Vigna praised his contribution and framed the change as part of the brand’s evolution rather than a reaction to it.

An outsider for an uncertain road

Whatever the motivation, the choice of replacement is telling.

Di Silvestre brings more than two decades of experience in the premium car market, having steered BMW Italy since 2019, and represents a rare move by Ferrari to recruit its commercial chief from a rival rather than promote from within.

He inherits the task of selling an electric Ferrari to a clientele that pays a heavy premium for exclusivity, at a moment when demand for high-performance EVs has cooled.

Ferrari maintains that interest in the Luce remains strong, though investors will not get a clearer picture until the company reports its second-quarter results on 30 July.

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Newsom says wife is target of Trump. Here’s what we know of her finances

Jennifer Siebel Newsom has spent more than a decade cultivating an identity distinct from her husband, Gov. Gavin Newsom, as an active documentary filmmaker and gender equity activist with her own organizations, staff and salary.

The 51-year-old calls herself California’s “first partner,” a title she coined herself to signal an equal footing with the governor and gender inclusivity.

Her independent streak has generated her a steady income. She earns money from a set of organizations she founded or controls. They include the Representation Project, a nonprofit that advocates for gender equity through film and education programs; Girls Club Entertainment, a for-profit production company she owns that holds the copyrights to her documentaries; and the California Partners Project, a second nonprofit that works closely with her government office and receives donations solicited by the governor.

Since its creation in 2020, the California Partners Project has received nearly $5.1 million from so-called “behested payments,” raising alarms over the years about the influence large companies have amassed in Sacramento.

California law allows officials to solicit donations to specific charitable or governmental causes when the payments are reported within 30 days. The public donation system, however, came under scrutiny in 2020 when payments made at Newsom’s behest — to a variety of organizations, not just the California Partners Project — ballooned to an unprecedented $226 million to help fund the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

With no limit on how much money can be donated by organizations or individuals at the behest of the governor, millions of dollars flowed in to prop up public services during the pandemic and fund Newsom’s favored programs, including an effort to address homelessness and a public safety campaign promoting the importance of wearing masks. The top donor of Newsom-behested payments in 2020 was tech giant Facebook, which gave $27 million for gift cards that went to front-line healthcare workers and for public health ads.

“It’s not illegal, but it certainly pushes the bounds of campaign finance law, and the first couple has been doing this for some time,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University. “In this battle between Newsom and [President] Trump this makes their [the first couple’s] actions, these payments and the operation of the nonprofits a rich target for scrutiny.”

The Newsoms’ financial arrangements are now the subject of renewed scrutiny. The governor has accused the Trump administration — specifically, the FBI and the Internal Revenue Service — of questioning their friends and former employees about him and his wife. The governor said the probes are politically motivated, a personal vendetta because he’s considering a run for president in 2028.

Newsom said he and his wife have nothing to hide, and promised to release all of his recent tax returns — though he has not announced when.

In turn, the governor has demanded that the Department of Justice release all records pertaining to the probe.

“The American people deserve to know who ordered this abuse of power and how far it goes,” the governor wrote on social media last week.

“These are dark days in our nation’s history when the leader of the free world spews animus openly and without shame — aiming to silence and destroy not only his political opponents, but their friends, colleagues, and families,” Siebel Newsom said in a statement to The Times. ”My husband and I will continue to push back on this vindictive attack — and I certainly will not let this distract me from the important work ahead to protect the health, wealth, and safety of women and children and give California kids the best start in life. Together, we can set an example of strong leadership that protects people rather than preys on them.”

To better understand the finances, here is a breakdown of how Siebel Newsom’s company and nonprofits are working.

The Representation Project

Alongside the release of her first documentary, “Miss Representation,” in 2011, Siebel Newsom created her nonprofit, which originally shared the same name as her film. The organization licenses her films and reimburses costs to her production company.

The nonprofit earns some revenue from licensing the first partner’s documentaries for use in classrooms, college campuses and workplaces. Licensing for film screenings at schools starts at $49, while corporate licensing for her films starts at $995; purchase of screening rights also comes with curricula to facilitate discussions.

The Representation Project has earned more than $5.2 million in revenue from film screenings, licensing and speaking fees since 2011, according to a review of its tax filings.

The Representation Project is not required to disclose its donors but has received at least $2.6 million since 2014 from various charitable foundations that disclosed the gifts in their own tax filings. Several corporations that have had business before the state have donated to Siebel Newsom’s nonprofit, including Pacific Gas & Electric Co., AT&T and Kaiser Permanente.

Its past donors also include entrepreneur and progressive donor Susie Thompkins Buell, who is credited as a producer on several of Siebel Newsom’s documentaries, as well as the Marin Community Foundation and Onward Together, the political action organization founded by Hillary Clinton.

Four months after Newsom took office in 2019, the state Department of Education recommended that high schools screen two of his wife’s films, “Miss Representation” and “The Mask You Live In,” a move that has garnered criticism from conservative media outlets. The state said the films “can help facilitate a discussion about the impact of mass media and gender socialization on self-image and relationships with others.”

Though it does not specify where its films have been licensed, the nonprofit boasts in annual impact reports that its films and curricula have “reached over 2 million students” and “are being used in over 5,000 schools in fifty U.S. states.”

Since founding the Representation Project in 2011, Siebel Newsom has received more than $1.9 million in compensation from the nonprofit organization, according to a review of federal tax records. Her separately owned film production company, Girls Club Entertainment, has collected about $2.2 million in independent contracts from the nonprofit, records show.

Combined, the two streams of money total about $4.1 million flowing from the charity to Siebel Newsom personally or to entities she controls over the span of a little over a decade.

Her current annual salary is $161,250 for a 40-hour workweek, records show. Siebel Newsom earns income from both her production company and her nonprofit, according to state financial disclosures.

Jeff Tenenbaum, a nonprofit attorney with 30 years of experience advising nonprofit, tax-exempt organizations, declined to comment on Siebel Newsom’s specific case. But generally, he explained the legal framework that would apply to an arrangement like the one described in the filings.

Under federal tax-exempt organization law, he said, the “private benefit doctrine” governs whether a nonprofit’s overall activities unduly benefit any single individual — including through indirect payments to entities they own. The tax law asks whether too much benefit flows to one person or entity.

This is separate and distinct from the “private inurement” doctrine, which prohibits nonprofits from paying greater-than-fair market value compensation to insiders, including founders, and which requires that such compensation arrangements be approved by individuals with no conflicts of interest.

“Theoretically, a situation like this could raise some private benefit concerns,” Tenenbaum said, when the structure of the arrangement was described to him.

The doctrine does not prohibit all private benefit, he said, only what the federal tax code calls “impermissible” private benefit.

“There has to be too much benefit compared to the benefit to the public,” he said. Whether that threshold is crossed here, he said, would require a fuller review of the organization’s finances, contracts, and other considerations, including copyright ownership issues relating to the films produced.

Girls Club Entertainment

An actress and documentary filmmaker, Siebel Newsom founded her production company to develop independent films with a focus on combating gender stereotypes and empowering girls and women. She serves as the company’s chief creative officer.

She has written, produced and directed five films exploring themes of inequality and traditional gender roles. Siebel Newsom is best known for her 2011 documentary “Miss Representation,” which focused on the few and narrow representations of girls and women in American media.

Tax records show that the production company owns the rights to “Miss Representation” and has licensed the film to the Representation Project for a minimum of seven years for the purpose of distributing and screening the film in public. Costs associated with film production — including the writer, director and producer fees — have been reimbursed by the Representation Project, tax filings show.

Her latest documentary, “Miss Representation: Rise Up,” examines “the rising backlash against women’s progress and the hostile landscape of technology designed to harass and, ultimately, silence women.” The film premiered this month at the Tribeca Film Festival.

California Partners Project

In 2020, Siebel Newsom founded the California Partners Project, a nonprofit focused on improving gender equity in the workplace and the safety and well-being of children in online spaces. She does not collect compensation from the nonprofit or serve on its board.

It hosts an annual “gender equity summit” and provides resources for parents on issues such as social media safety and child mental health.

In the fall of 2024, Siebel Newsom and the California Partners Project hosted representatives from TikTok, Meta, Pinterest and other social media platforms for an event about children’s online safety. A day before the panel, state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta took a more forceful tack to go after the tech industry by joining with 13 other states in a lawsuit against TikTok that accused the platform of exploiting young app users with its addictive features.

In September of 2024, the governor signed a bill to prohibit internet services and applications from providing “addictive feeds,” defined as media curated based on information gathered on or provided by the user, to minors without parental consent.

The California Partners Project also does not publicly disclose its donors in its tax filings, but much of the nonprofit’s funding appears to come from behested payments. Siebel Newsom does not receive a salary from the organization.

Since its founding, the Newsoms have steered more than $5 million to the nonprofit via behested payments, according to a review of the disclosures. While many donations to the California Partners Project come from charitable foundations, it also received hundreds of thousands from companies including Silicon Valley Bank, Pinterest and the charitable arm of Blue Shield of California.

Its biggest funder is the Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria, a Sonoma County tribe that operates a casino in Rohnert Park and spends heavily in state and federal elections. The tribe has given $2.3 million to the nonprofit since 2022. In June 2023, Newsom appointed tribal Chairman Greg Sarris to the University of California Board of Regents. Newsom has also supported efforts by the tribe to block a smaller tribe from building a casino in nearby Vallejo.

Blue Shield, which has reported giving $100,000 to Siebel Newsom’s nonprofit, also has a cozy relationship with her husband. The nonprofit health insurer was an early donor to Newsom’s 2018 campaign for governor and later received a $15-million no-bid contract to distribute COVID vaccines. State regulators in 2024 also signed off on the nonprofit’s request to restructure and establish a new parent corporation out of state, a move that raised alarm among healthcare advocates.

The California Partners Project did not respond to questions about its donors and spending.

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Micron posts record results as AI boom drives 15-fold jump in net profit

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Micron, one of only a handful of companies able to make advanced memory chips at scale, said on Wednesday that revenue in the third quarter reached $41.4 billion (€36.5bn), more than four times the $9.3 billion (€8.2bn) it recorded in the same period last year.


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The figure also comfortably beat the roughly $35.7 billion (€31.4bn) analysts had forecast, while profit climbed even more dramatically.

The Idaho-based group posted net income of $28.24 billion (€24.9bn), or $24.67 per share, against less than $2 billion (€1.7bn) a year ago. Adjusted earnings of $25.11 a share sailed past the $20.49 expected.

The market reaction to the impressive results was immediate.

Micron shares rose more than 15% in after-hours trading to around $1,213, leaving the company valued at roughly $1.16 trillion (€1tn).

The stock has now climbed about 700% over the past year, one of the most dramatic re-ratings of any large company through the AI boom, reflecting a fundamental shift in the economics of the AI build-out.

The vast data centres being constructed by hyperscalers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta, which have collectively earmarked hundreds of billions of dollars in capital spending this year, depend on enormous quantities of high-bandwidth memory, a specialised chip that sits alongside the processors made by Nvidia and others.

Micron has said its entire 2026 output of these chips is already sold out under fixed-price contracts.

According to CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, the results reflect what he called the strategic value of memory in the AI era.

The company pointed to a series of multi-year customer agreements that it expects to make earnings more durable and predictable, a notable claim in an industry long defined by brutal boom-and-bust cycles.

Margins to rival the biggest names

What has startled analysts most is Micron’s profitability.

The company reported a gross margin of around 85% for the quarter, a level that now rivals or exceeds those of far larger technology names such as Nvidia and Meta, an extraordinary position for a memory maker historically squeezed by volatile chip prices.

The tightness of supply, with new factories not expected to add meaningful output until 2028, has handed producers exceptional pricing power.

Micron’s guidance was more striking still.

The company expects revenue of around $50 billion (€44bn) in the current quarter and adjusted earnings of roughly $31 a share, implying the boom is accelerating rather than fading. It is ramping up investment to match, lifting planned capital spending to about $27 billion (€23.7bn) this fiscal year and signalling a further jump in 2027, management told analysts during the earnings call.

The results offer reassurance to investors betting that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, with Micron’s order book serving as a real-time gauge of that demand.

The open question, as ever in the memory industry, is how long the upswing can last before supply catches up. Even the most bullish observers acknowledge that risk has not completely disappeared.

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Micron signals HBM TAM crossing $100B in 2027 as it lifts FY26 CapEx to around $27B (NASDAQ:MU)

Earnings Call Insights: Micron Technology (MU) Q3 fiscal 2026

Management View

  • Mark Murphy (Executive VP & CFO) tied capital returns to cash durability, saying: “We’re really pleased with the financial trajectory of the business… we are delivering record cash flow numbers.” He added that after maintaining “appropriate excess

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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MillerKnoll projects $3.93B-$4.13B in fiscal 2027 net sales as it plans 9-11 Herman Miller store openings (NASDAQ:MLKN)

Earnings Call Insights: MillerKnoll, Inc. (MLKN) Q4 fiscal 2026

Management View

  • “I am honored to step into this role” and “our financial performance is not where we want it to be,” said Chief Operating Officer and incoming Interim CEO Jeff Stutz, adding that fiscal

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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Trump renews push for year-round E15 gasoline sales across U.S. (ADM:NYSE)

Corn Made Biofuel

matt_benoit/iStock via Getty Images

The Trump administration asked Congress on Wednesday to pass a law allowing year-round sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, marking the first formal push ​by his White House to enact the policy and siding with the biofuels industry against

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U.S. REIT giants aren’t immune: 10 large-cap stocks with weak momentum grades

wooden cubes spelling

Large- and mega-cap U.S. REIT stocks with market capitalizations from $10B to more than $200B, have generally held up better than their smaller peers, but several major names still carry weak Momentum Grades between D and C-.

Telecom tower REITs

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Zuckerberg wants Meta to launch its own prediction market, report says

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Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has given the green light to develop a prediction market app, according to the New York Times, as Meta moves to capitalise on one of the fastest-growing sectors in tech and finance.


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The app is currently being referred to as Arena internally and would let users earn points for correctly predicting the outcomes of events such as sports results, political developments and stock market moves but without any real money changing hands, at least initially.

It would operate independently of Meta’s existing social platforms, though those could funnel users towards it, according to the reporting.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is essentially a financial exchange where people buy and sell contracts or bets tied to the outcome of real-world events.

Each contract is a simple yes-or-no question, such as whether a certain candidate will win an election, a team will come out first in a championship or if a major political figure will pass by a certain date.

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the two most popular prediction market platforms, users buy contracts that pay out $1 if they are right and nothing if they are wrong.

As more people trade those contracts, the price reflects the market’s probability of the event occurring. If a bet is worth 40 cents, there’s a 40% chance of it happening, according to the people who have placed bets.

Fans of prediction markets argue the mechanism produces more accurate forecasts than polls or political analysts because participants have real money on the line.

Polymarket and Kalshi

The two dominant platforms in the space are Polymarket and Kalshi, which together generated around 85–90% of the roughly $44 billion (€40bn) in total trading volume recorded in 2025.

Polymarket, founded in 2020 by New York University dropout Shayne Coplan, operates globally on the blockchain. In October 2025, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company invested $2 billion (€1.8bn) in the platform, in a major sign that Wall Street was taking the sector seriously.

Kalshi, founded in 2018 by two MIT graduates, spent years winning regulatory approval before launching as the first prediction market sanctioned by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The turning point came in October 2024, when a US court ruled Kalshi could legally offer election contracts 32 days before the presidential election. Monthly trading volume has since surged from less than $5 billion (€4.6bn) in September 2025 to around $24 billion (€21.8bn) in April 2026, overtaking the roughly $14 billion (€12.7bn) wagered monthly through legal or traditional US sportsbooks.

Donald Trump Jr. becoming an investor in Polymarket and a paid adviser to Kalshi, while federal regulators adopted a more permissive stance, also helped fuel the boom.

The risks

The boom has not come without controversy and legal cases have mounted, with a former special forces soldier getting arrested over allegations he used insider knowledge of a US operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro to place a winning trade on Polymarket worth around $400,000 (€365,000).

Some US states have begun suing the platforms, arguing they are running illegal gambling operations without proper licences. The Trump administration has responded by suing the states that have moved to ban prediction markets, creating a messy legal standoff between federal and state authority.

A New York Times review found that Polymarket published hundreds of false and misleading social media posts, while Politico uncovered a campaign to pay influencers to praise the platform’s supposed accuracy.

Whether Meta’s gamified, cashless version of the concept can avoid those pitfalls or will simply serve as a gateway to them remains unclear.

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European defence IPO: KNDS lays out listing plans that could value it at up to €15bn

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One of Europe’s largest military equipment producers, KNDS, rolled out long-awaited details of its initial public offering (IPO), aiming for a dual listing in Paris and Frankfurt in the coming weeks.


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The IPO could value KNDS, the maker of Leopard and Leclerc tanks, at between €12bn and €15bn, according to the Financial Times, potentially making it one of Europe’s largest defence listings in recent years.

The listing comes at a time when European military budgets are surging, driven by the war in Ukraine and doubts over the reliability of the US as a security guarantor.

The company declined to comment on the precise date, but CEO Jean-Paul Alary told reporters the offering was expected within weeks.

According to Alary, the move comes as the continent enters what he called a new era of defence and security, with armed forces modernising rapidly and rebuilding the land-warfare capabilities run down during decades of lower spending.

According to Reuters, the firm has now formally launched the IPO process, which is expected to take place in mid-July.

The announcement comes days after Germany unveiled plans to acquire a 40% stake in KNDS, saying the move would secure long-term influence over a company it considers strategically important to European security and defence.

France, which currently owns 50% of KNDS, is expected to reduce its stake to 40%.

The remaining 20% of the company is set to be floated on the stock market, with France and Germany each retaining 40% stakes following the transaction.

According to the Financial Times, the shares are expected to be marketed primarily to institutional investors amid strong demand for European defence stocks.

Once the listing is completed, KNDS shares will begin trading on Euronext Paris and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, giving investors direct exposure to one of Europe’s largest land-defence manufacturers.

KNDS was created in 2015 through the merger of Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and France’s Nexter.

A growing headache for Rheinmetall

The rapid emergence of the rival adds to the pressure on Rheinmetall, Europe’s largest ammunition maker and KNDS’s main competitor in subsectors such as land systems.

The Düsseldorf-based group, whose shares have shed roughly a quarter of their value this year, had itself reportedly hoped to buy into KNDS, only to be shut out by the governments’ intervention.

To make matters worse, Berlin announced it would scrap Rheinmetall’s multi-billion-euro F126 frigate programme, which would have been Germany’s largest warship order since the Second World War, in favour of smaller vessels from rival builder TKMS.

Rheinmetall, which had been poised to take over the project, fell 13% in early trading on Wednesday due to the news.

The squeeze also coincides with regulatory scrutiny at home.

Germany’s Monopolies Commission has warned that defence procurement is concentrated among a small number of suppliers, potentially weakening competition and driving up costs.

Calling for reforms to procurement rules, commission chairman Tomaso Duso said competition was “the fundamental pillar of Europe’s economic order” and should play a greater role in the defence sector.

A listed KNDS will give investors a direct yardstick against which to measure Rheinmetall’s order momentum and margins.

Additional sources • AFP

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Europe’s crypto reset: MiCA creates a single market as hundreds of firms face exit

The clock is running down on the most consequential deadline the crypto sector has faced in Europe.


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From the start of July, the transitional window under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) closes for good, and companies that have not secured authorisation must either stop serving European customers or wind down altogether.

MiCA is the EU’s first comprehensive law for the crypto industry, bringing exchanges, brokers and digital wallet providers under the kind of formal oversight that has long applied to banks and other financial firms.

It replaces a fragmented mix of national rules with a single rulebook spanning all 27 member states: a company licensed in one EU country earns a “passport” to operate across the bloc, but in return it must meet standards on how much capital it holds, how it is run, how it safeguards customers’ funds and how it prevents money laundering.

“What emerges is a genuine single market replacing the old patchwork of 27 national regimes,” Yamal Kalaf, co-founder of MiCAR Whitepapers Europe, which advises crypto businesses on MiCA authorisation, told Euronews.

Since the core rules took effect at the end of 2024, existing operators have been allowed to keep operating under older national registrations, but that concession was temporary.

Crypto firms need European licences but many are behind

The scale of the looming shake-out is striking.

According to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), which confirmed in April that there would be no extension, only around 210 firms had obtained full authorisation by May, out of more than 1,200 that previously held national crypto registrations across the EU.

That points to a conversion rate of well under a fifth, leaving the vast majority of the old market without a licence as the cut-off arrives in a few days.

Speaking to Euronews, Roshan Dharia, CEO of distressed-investment firm Echo Base, explained that “the low conversion rate suggests that a meaningful portion of the market has concluded that obtaining and maintaining a MiCA licence is not economically viable within its current operating model.”

National regulators have warned that firms operating beyond the deadline without the new licence face enforcement action. France’s markets watchdog has also cautioned that continuing without authorisation could expose companies to criminal prosecution.

ESMA has told unlicensed providers to prepare orderly wind-downs, including transferring customer assets to authorised platforms or self-custody wallets, and to notify clients in advance so they can move funds safely.

“What we will see after 1 July is a smaller, more institutional market with real passporting. That is not a market in retreat. That is a market growing up,” Miguel Zapatero, Head Counsel at Crossmint, told Euronews.

Crossmint is a crypto infrastructure provider whose licensed rails let developers build wallets, custody and payment products.

A market reshaped around licensed rails

Plenty of familiar names have already cleared the bar.

Coinbase has been authorised in Ireland and Kraken in Ireland and Luxembourg. At the same time, the banking app Revolut secured its licence from Cyprus’s regulator late last year, allowing it to offer crypto services across the EU.

For these firms, the new rules promise a reward as unlicensed rivals retreat, the survivors stand to absorb their departing customers.

“MiCA is a genuine regulatory identity shift, not a registration exercise,” Gal Arad Cohen, partner at law firm S. Horowitz & Co, told Euronews.

The most prominent casualty so far may be Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange.

According to Reuters, which cited two people familiar with the matter, Binance is set to lose permission to serve EU clients because its licence application to Greece’s market regulator, the Hellenic Capital Market Commission, is poised to be rejected.

Without approval in any member state, the exchange would be unable to operate across the bloc from July onwards.

Speaking to Euronews, Patrick Mollard, CEO at Fipto, a blockchain-based payments company for businesses, referred to the Binance case by stating that “scale earns you no shortcut to a licence, and that is precisely the point.”

Binance has pushed back, saying it has worked constructively with regulators for 18 months and believes its application met MiCA’s requirements. The company added that it understood the Greek authority had completed its review and found the filing compliant.

The company has promised a further update before 30 June.

The episode has also reputedly taken on a political dimension.

French crypto publication The Big Whale reported, citing unnamed sources, that ECB President Christine Lagarde had opposed Binance’s bid for a Greek MiCA licence.

Euronews could not independently verify the report, and neither the ECB nor the Greek government has publicly commented on the allegations.

The Big Whale also reported that Binance is exploring a potential MiCA application in France after the setback in Greece, a claim that neither Binance nor French regulators have publicly confirmed.

Binance did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Euronews.

A shake-out for smaller crypto firms

Beyond the biggest names, the deadline is expected to push smaller crypto apps and brokers towards licensed custody providers. Rather than building their own MiCA-compliant systems, many are likely to rely on authorised firms to hold customer assets.

“We will see consolidation and transfer of clients as the deadline will not be met by all currently operating entries,” Floortje Nagelkerke, partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, explained to Euronews.

The result, analysts suggest, will be a smaller, more concentrated European market, with fewer players, higher barriers to entry and a clear advantage for those holding a licence, but stronger consumer protections.

“People who hold crypto in the EU after 1 July will, on balance, hold it on safer rails,” Miguel Zapatero, Head Counsel at Crossmint, concluded.

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