Month: July 2026

This article examines the historical origins of Nicaragua’s Sandinista Revolution Day, highlighting the rise and fall of the Somoza family dynasty. The narrative explains how Anastasio Somoza García seized power in 1936, initiating a decades-long hereditary dictatorship that maintained authority through U.S. backing and the suppression of political rivals. Over time, the regime faced growing opposition from the Sandinista National Liberation Front, a socialist group that drew inspiration from past resistance leaders. By the late 1970s, long-standing social unrest among students and workers escalated into violent military confrontations against the government. Ultimately, the text illustrates the  … 

July 19 (UPI) — Extensive search and rescue missions were underway in Peru’s mountainous central Andean highlands Sunday following a deadly 5.1 magnitude earthquake.

The Peruvian National Police said they were actively conducting search, rescue, emergency response and security operations in the Junin region after Saturday’s temblor, which had its epicenter in the Chongos Bajo district of Chupaca province, about 200 miles east of Lima.

More than 250 personnel from the Peru’s emergency services, K-9 and medical units, as well as other specialized teams, were also in the rugged highlands as the government issued a preliminary report of five dead, 21 injured and more than 300 affected by the quake.

It struck at 9:21 p.m. Saturday local time.

“I deeply regret the consequences of the earthquake that occurred in Junín,” Peruvian President-elect Keiko Fujimori said in a statement. “I express my most heartfelt condolences to the families of those who have passed away and my solidarity with those who have been affected.”

The national volunteer firefighting corps were similarly dispatched to the region to aid the National Police in search and rescue operations, debris removal, evacuations and pre-hospital care for those in the hardest-hit areas, the interior ministry said.

The health ministry, meanwhile, sent a brigade of specialists brigade to begin providing medical care to those affected, joining local teams already present in Junin.

“The Ministry of Health maintains continuous monitoring of the emergency and will continue to mobilize the human, logistical, and medical resources necessary to safeguard the lives and health of the affected population,” officials said.

US forces attack Iran for the ninth consecutive night as one US soldier killed in northern Iraq.

HOLLYWOOD’S Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner shared a kiss at the World Cup final as a host of celebrities have turned out in force.

Spain and Argentina battle it out in this year’s final which is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Make-up mogul Kylie, 28, was among a list of A-listers in the crowd, along with her Interstellar actor boyfriend Timothee, 30.

Kylie wore a plunging black long sleeve top and black jeans, while the Dune star went for a blue and white jersey top and black trousers.

The pair were spotted holding hands while they watched the tense game, before enjoying a kiss in the stands.

The famous duo were joined by a number of other famous faces in the crowd, including the likes of Tom Cruise and David and Victoria Beckham.

The Beckhams looked stylish with David sporting a navy suit and Victoria in a white vest top and white jeans.

The pair were seen smiling and laughing with good pal Tom Cruise, 64, in the stands.

The I Need Your Love hitmaker Ellie Goulding, 39, was spotted in the crowd with her boyfriend Beau Minniear, who was seen with a disposable camera.

Split actress Anya Taylor-Joy was sat in the row behind and she looked chic in a satin one-shoulder beige midi dress.

She was seen chatting with her US musician and actor husband Malcolm McRae.

Other big names included Robbie Williams and Ayda Field.

It’s been a tense World Cup final between Spain and Argentina so far – but the star-studded half-time show livened up the crowd.

Justin Bieber, Shakira and Madonna are just a few blockbuster names who performed at the interval.

This follows the huge closing ceremony that saw Robbie Williams, Post Malone and IShowSpeed rock the stage.

But fans have flooded social media to brutally hit out at the tournament’s closing ceremony.

Nicole Scherzinger and actor Tom Cruise were also involved as the curtain was brought down on the tournament.

But the performances did not go down well in the stadium or at home – leading to fans heading onto social media to slam Fifa.

One said: “The worst closing ceremony ever. Even the fans look bored.”

Another added: “I’m crying what a terrible ugly closing ceremony.”

A third chimed in: “That closing ceremony was so underwhelming.”

A fourth noted: “A completely forgettable closing ceremony is finally and thankfully over.”

And a fifth comically claimed: “The crowd has gone absolutely mild at this closing ceremony.”

A huge number of fans missed the closing ceremony due to massive queues outside the stadium.

There has been an increased security presence due to President Donald Trump being in attendance.

And that led to those who snapped up tickets having to wait more than TWO HOURS to reach their seats.

July 19 (Asia Today) — North Korea is intensifying engagement with China and Russia as South Korea, the United States and Japan broaden their cooperation to include the overseas deployment of small modular reactors.

The diplomatic activity follows events marking the 65th anniversary of the North Korea-China Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.

North Korea received a senior Chinese delegation for the anniversary and dispatched Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui to Russia, signaling efforts to manage relations with both of its principal partners.

The moves are widely viewed as an attempt to strengthen alignment among North Korea, China and Russia as Seoul, Washington and Tokyo expand their security and economic cooperation.

The three allies recently signed a memorandum aimed at encouraging cooperation among their civilian nuclear industries and supporting the deployment of small modular reactors in third countries.

The Korean Central News Agency said Choe left Pyongyang aboard a government aircraft Saturday at the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry also said Choe was making an official visit to the country.

It was Choe’s first visit to Russia in about nine months and the first major high-level exchange between the countries since the April opening of a memorial in North Korea honoring troops sent to support Russia.

Because the trip was not tied to a major anniversary or previously announced diplomatic event, analysts said Choe could be preparing for a possible visit to Russia by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly invited Kim to visit Russia during their June 2024 summit and again when the leaders attended events in China marking the anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia.

Possible subjects for Choe’s talks include a visit by Kim, recent developments in North Korea-China relations and coordination involving the Tumen River region, where the three countries share geographic and economic interests.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said military and diplomatic accomplishments are easier for Pyongyang to demonstrate than economic achievements.

“If Chinese President Xi Jinping visits North Korea and Kim Jong Un subsequently visits Russia, North Korea could present those events as major diplomatic accomplishments,” Park said.

“Practical trilateral cooperation among North Korea, China and Russia has not progressed smoothly, but the Tumen River project could become a vehicle for cooperation among the three countries.”

China ties show signs of recovery

Relations between North Korea and China also appear to be recovering rapidly around the treaty anniversary.

Kim and Xi exchanged messages, a North Korean delegation traveled to China and Wang Huning, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, led a Chinese party and government delegation to North Korea.

The exchanges could expand cooperation in economic affairs, science and technology, public health and culture.

Wang’s visit to the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Area was particularly notable because the resort is one of Kim’s priority development projects.

Analysts have questioned whether Russian tourists alone can generate enough demand to make the resort financially sustainable.

Wang’s visit has therefore raised the possibility that the two countries discussed bringing larger numbers of Chinese tourists to the site.

Tourism is considered an area in which China may be able to support North Korea without directly violating the main restrictions imposed by U.N. Security Council sanctions.

Oh Gyeong-seop, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said attracting Chinese visitors is crucial to the resort’s prospects.

“Bringing in Chinese tourists is an issue that can avoid U.N. Security Council sanctions and is therefore critically important for North Korea,” Oh said.

“Large numbers of Chinese tourists are necessary to revitalize the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Area, so related discussions are likely to have continued.”

North Korea’s renewed engagement with China and Russia does not necessarily indicate that the three countries have established a formal trilateral alliance.

Their interests frequently differ, and analysts say much of their coordination remains bilateral.

The latest exchanges, however, demonstrate Pyongyang’s effort to strengthen diplomatic, economic and strategic ties with Beijing and Moscow while South Korea, the United States and Japan deepen their own cooperation.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260720010006651

JD and Usha Vance welcome a baby boy, the first child born to a sitting vice president in more than 150 years.

United States Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha, have announced the birth of their fourth child.

In a statement, Vance and his wife said their son was born on Sunday at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland.

“We are excited to announce that our baby boy, Alec Neel Vance, was born this morning,” the statement said.

“Usha and the baby are happy and healthy, and our kids are overjoyed to meet their little brother,” it added.

Vance, an Ohio native, and Usha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, met while attending Yale Law School, where they graduated in 2013.

Their first son, Ewan, was born in 2017, followed by another son, Vivek, in 2020. The couple’s daughter, Mirabel, was born in 2021.

Alec Neel Vance is the first child born to a vice president in more than 150 years.

The last time a sitting vice president became a new father was in the 1800s.

Schuyler Colfax and his second wife, Ellen Wade, had a son, Schuyler Colfax III, in 1870, when Colfax was serving as vice president, according to the White House Historical Association.

Vance, a former US Marine, is a passionate advocate for Americans to have more children. He repeatedly expressed alarm about declining birth rates in the US as he launched his political career in 2021 with a bid for a US Senate seat from Ohio.

As vice president, he said in Washington at the 2025 March for Life anti-abortion rally, “I want more babies in the United States of America.”

The newest addition to Vance’s family was part of a recent mini baby boom among top members of President Donald Trump’s administration.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller’s wife, Katie, recently gave birth to the couple’s fourth child, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt had her second child with her husband, Nicholas Riccio, in May.

ECO-conscious pop superstar Ed Sheeran has installed a £20,000 root cellar in his sprawling mansion’s garden.

The singer, 35, has set up the trendy structure near his vegetable patch to keep the produce cool.

The cellar is partially dug into the earth and covered by an earth mound for insulation — making it look like a Hobbit hole from Tolkien’s fantasy tales.

It uses the earth’s natural insulating qualities to keep contents at a cool 8C to 15C without electricity and can be used to store veg, cheese and wine.

The cellars, which can hold 3,000 litres, are a growing trend among celebrities, including US actress Jennifer Garner. Hollywood star Gwyneth Paltrow also had the high-end Groundfridge on her Goop brand’s gift guide.

Ed’s model features solar­powered ventilation and lights up when opened, just like a fridge. It costs £15,500 plus installation fees.

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The Dutch firm says having a fridge in your kitchen is “too easy” and says it is “more fun” to get outside to grab produce.

Other energy-saving root cellars can also be bought from high street stores, including B&Q, which is selling one for £8,138.

It is the latest addition to Ed’s pad in Framlingham, Suffolk, which is dubbed “Sheeranville”.

The property also boasts a pub, tree house, underground music room, tunnels and a ­private chapel.

July 19 (UPI) — Jens Spahn, a member of Germany’s Bundestag, has resigned his post amid uproar over his use of a surrogate to have a baby.

The leader of the center-right Christian Democrats in parliament quit abruptly Saturday, The New York Times reported. The move came three days after he announced the birth of his child, Georg, with husband Daniel Funke.

“Georg is our greatest joy,” Spahn, 46, told the German newspaper Bild. “This feeling is almost impossible to put into words.”

The couple faced criticism for the decision to use surrogacy to have a baby because the practice is outlawed in Germany — a law Spahn and fellow Christian Democrats voted to keep in place in February. Spahn and Funke used a surrogate in the United States to welcome their son.

In 2015, Spahn wrote that “as a gay man and a Christian, I find it personally very hard to warm to the idea of a rented womb,” The Guardian reported.

In an appearance on a podcast, Spahn said he struggled with the decision to use surrogacy but ultimately put his family first, the Times reported.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, also a member of the Christian Democratic Union, called on Spahn to step down Saturday. Other regional members of the party also sought his ouster.

Ferran Torres scores the only goal of the game as Spain win their second World Cup.

Ferran Torres scored ‌in the 106th minute to lift Spain to their second World Cup title with ⁠a 1-0 win ⁠in extra-time over 10-man Argentina in the final.

Torres’ deserved winner on Sunday came 16 years and eight days after Andres Iniesta also scored in extra time ⁠to lift the Spaniards to their first World Championship with a 1-0 victory over the Netherlands.

It came on La Roja’s 20th shot on the contest against a defending champion Argentina ⁠that failed to manage any to that point and struggled to wrest possession away from their superior Iberian opponents.

That was true at even strength and became more difficult when La Albiceleste’s numbers were reduced when Enzo Fernandez’s late challenge of Pau Cubarsi left referee Slavko Vincic no ‌choice but to produce a second caution just before the end of normal time.

Spain remain the only nation ever to win a European Championship and World Cup in successive tournaments, having now done so a second time. They are also the first World Cup champion ever to concede only once across an entire tournament.

Lionel Messi’s Argentina failed to earn a title for the first time in three major tournaments, having also captured the ⁠2021 and 2024 Copa Americas either side of their 2022 World ⁠Cup triumph.

The 39-year-old, eight-time Ballon d’Or winner Messi finished the competition with eight goals and four assists, but had little time on the ball until Spain finally took the lead and never seriously looked like lifting his ⁠side to another great moment as he has so many times in the last two World Cup cycles.

Emi Martinez made 11 ⁠saves for La Albiceleste, who fell short in their ⁠bid to be the first consecutive World Cup champions since Brazil won the 1958 and 1962 titles.

What had felt so difficult for the first 105 minutes suddenly looked easy after 37 seconds of play in the second period of ‌extra time.

Pedro Porro curled in an outswinging cross from the left to the back post, Nico Williams won the header and nodded it back into space, and Torres hammered a ‌half-volley ‌at last past the flailing Martinez.

It was his only goal of the tournament, making him the seventh player to score during a tournament in which his side never trailed.

Asked about his goal, Torres said after the game: “Honestly, I didn’t think too much. I just saw the ball coming to me, and I just shot with the power of all the Spanish people.”

The win made Spain coach Luis de la Fuente, at 65, the oldest coach ever to lead a team to the World Cup title.

“We are world champions,” de la Fuente said. “It was together we reached this stage.”

There was some pushing and shoving after the final whistle, which was quickly cleaned up and Spain commenced its celebration as most Argentina players sat on the turf in disbelief.

Cooler heads prevailed, and Spain’s players lined up minutes later to form an honour guard of sorts for Argentina’s squad to walk through on their way to the stage for the runner-up medals.

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni admitted Spain were the better team.

“They were the better side – that’s the truth – but I’ll cherish the memory of them [his side], of what they achieved, and of the value of making it this far,” Scaloni said.

“We have to place immense value on this because it takes so much effort.”

The first ever FIFA World Cup halftime show attracted a mixed reaction from sports fans – with Wayne Rooney declaring the best part was when it ended, despite Madonna, Justin Bieber and more taking part

The 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show has been brutally panned despite including performances from the biggest names in music. On Sunday night, Argentina faced off against Spain to fight for the official World Cup trophy, which was delivered to the pitch at the beginning of the match inside a Louis Vuitton case.

But the footballers were not the only major stars to appear on the pitch as a host of big names lined up to perform during the halftime interval. Anticipation was high as the musicians prepared to take centre stage in the first halftime show of its kind in the FIFA tournament’s history.

Pop music legend Madonna kicked off the celebrations with a lively performance of her 2000 single Music – weaving in elements of her recent hit, Bring Your Love. While Bring Your Love duet partner Sabrina Carpenter was nowhere to be seen during her performance, Madge had other major stars at her side to give her appearance an extra punch.

She sat in a pink jeep with Brazilian football legends Ronaldo and Ronaldinho at the wheel as they drove into the stadium and took a bow after the chart superstar repeated her infectious chorus, “Music brings the people together.” Cameras then cut to members of The Muppets on stage performing an instrumental version of the White Stripes’ classic song “Seven Nation Army,” with help from Gustavo Dudamel.

Korean pop kings BTS then took over the spectacle, belting out their song Dynamite – before cameras cut to Jason Sudeikis and Brendan Hunt in character as Ted Lasso and Coach Beard. The duo then introduced Canadian pop prince Justin Bieber, who took to the field to strum out his single, EVERYTHING HALLELUJAH.

As the halftime show continued, Shakira took to the centre of the stage alongside Burna Boy and an army of backing dancers to belt out Dai Dai – the official song of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This was then followed by Coldplay and PS22 Chorus, who sang the uplifting track We Believe in Love – before all the performers and dancers took their final bow.

While no one can dispute that the halftime show was packed with major stars, some felt that the show was a disjointed mess – and they made their feelings very clear.

Wayne Rooney was among those to put the boot in. Asked what his favourite part of the show was, he deadpanned: “Mine was when it finished.”

He added: “I like a lot of those artists but I thought it was crap. I did, honestly, it just didn’t get me going, I wanted the football to come back on.” He later explained that he believed Justin Bieber’s performance was “flat”. He fumed: “I liked Burna Boy, I like Bieber, I like Shakira, but that was too flat.”

Liam Gallagher also shared his thoughts, wading in to praise Justin Bieber for his performance of Everything Hallelujah – but hinted he didn’t fully enjoy it. While he said Justin “rules”, he added: “This is like a bad trip… It’s a good job I’ve got my spiritual socks on or that halftime entertainment could have tipped me over the edge.”

However, many fans were thrilled by the halftime show, with one on X, formerly known as Twitter, remarking that the entrance of Madonna alongside Ronaldo and Ronaldinho was “Iconic”.

There was more music before kickoff, with a fun-filled closing ceremony show. IShowSpeed took to the stage to sing their song, Champions. And Post Malone thrilled fans with a trio of hits; Chrome Heartbreaker, Wow., and the song Sunflower – featuring Swae Lee.

As the kick-off grew closer, Jennifer Hudson appeared to give a powerful performance of the United States National Anthem, the Star-Spangled Banner, while Spanish Brass performed La Marcha Real and Maria Becerra belted out the Argentinian national anthem. And amid all the celebrations, there was even time for Robbie Williams to join Laura Pausini and Nicole Scherzinger to sing the Fifa song, Desire.

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Two weeks after suspending his bid for Wisconsin governor, David Crowley has reentered the state’s Democratic primary, with the Milwaukee County executive securing a last-minute endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers.

The moves appears to be a Democratic effort to best position the party for success in November.

Evers had initially declined to endorse in the race, but threw his weight behind Crowley and resuscitated his bid to lead the swing state known for razor-thin election margins, where appealing to moderate and independent voters is crucial.

It was the latest turn in a chaotic Democratic primary that has jeopardized the party’s chances this fall and comes after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez said she was abandoning her campaign for the state’s top office after a campaign finance scandal.

Democrats are looking to November to secure full control of Wisconsin state government for the first time since 2010, and hope it will send a signal about where the country’s politics are headed by shaping a key political battleground that helps decide presidential elections.

In an event in Milwaukee on Saturday relaunching his campaign, Crowley referenced the stakes, saying that “winning this election will require building the broadest possible coalition,” and touting his ability to forge relationships across partisan divides. And Evers’ endorsement, he added, “reflects his confidence that I have the experience” to lead and to win.

Evers was on a trade visit to Africa and not in attendance at Crowley’s Saturday event, but acknowledged in a social media post that he was now “all in” for Crowley, touting his executive leadership on issues including job creation and balancing budgets.

“He’s not just a candidate who can win in November, but he’s the kind of person who cares about doing the job right,” Evers wrote.

Crowley, 40, is reemerging into a competitive primary for Wisconsin’s open governor’s race that was turned on its head Friday with the departure of Rodriguez, who earlier in the week fired her campaign manager after discovering her campaign had hundreds of thousands of dollars less on hand than expected.

Now, as they approach Wisconsin’s primary election Aug. 11, Democrats are hoping to hold on to the governor’s office as they also eye flipping majority control of the state Legislature, which Republicans have held since 2011.

The primary also comes after democratic socialists’ earlier victories in the liberal strongholds of New York City, Washington and Denver. Francesca Hong, a single mother who has worked as a dishwasher and line cook, is trying to do the same with her campaign for Wisconsin governor, with her candidacy turning the Democratic contest into a test of party voters’ growing embrace of leftist candidates heading in the November midterms.

Crowley, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected, had ended his own bid two weeks ago to back Rodriguez. Now, he’s returning to a contest against Hong, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Sen. Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan, a former top aide to Evers. The Democratic nominee is expected to face Republican U.S. Rep. Thomas P. Tiffany, who faces only token opposition and has the support of President Trump and other GOP leaders.

In an interview Saturday afternoon, Crowley told the Associated Press that voters would see “a much more aggressive campaign” from him in the primary’s closing weeks, buoyed in part by Evers’ backing and “a renewed, energized, volunteer base.”

“I wouldn’t have gotten into this race if I didn’t believe a pathway was there,” Crowley said. “We can not only get over the hump in winning on the Aug. 11 primary, but then we’ll be able to really focus on how we can make sure that Tom Tiffany doesn’t bring an extreme MAGA agenda to the state of Wisconsin,” Crowley said.

In the first iteration of his campaign, Crowley leaned into his background, highlighting how his family was once homeless in Milwaukee but he rose to become a community organizer and was elected to the state Assembly in 2016 at age 30. He served until the middle of 2020, when he was elected as executive of Milwaukee County, the state’s largest county. He was the first Black person to hold that job and also the youngest, at 33.

In a statement to AP, Tiffany portrayed Crowley as “asleep at the wheel” in his role as county executive and described his reemergence as Democrats’ “only shot at stopping the socialist who wants to abolish the police and prisons.”

In an email statement, the Republican Governors Assn. said that “watching Wisconsin Democrats is like watching a clown car crash into a parked semitruck.”

Kinnard writes for the Associated Press. AP reporter Scott Bauer in Madison, Wis., contributed to this report.

Andy Burnham, who becomes the United Kingdom’s next prime minister on Monday, faces a roster of challenges as the country’s seventh leader in a decade.

Burnham was overwhelmingly backed as Labour leader on Friday after current Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned last month.

It has been a whirlwind month for the former Greater Manchester mayor, with his vision for the country and his cabinet still unclear.

“This has gone faster than he thought. It’s only been four weeks since he won the by-election. I don’t think he knows all of the answers yet; he hasn’t had the thinking time,” Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, told Al Jazeera.

Experts say the incoming prime minister will inherit an economy that has barely grown in two decades and a challenging geopolitical environment. He also has to deal with a marked decrease in Labour’s popularity, with the party trailing the right-wing Reform UK in the polls for 18 months.

“Burnham has relatively little fiscal room for manoeuvre,” said Anand Menon, director of UK in a Changing Europe.

New spending will have to be raised via taxation rather than borrowing, though there may be scope for “hypothecated spending” tied to a clear purpose, such as defence bonds, Menon said.

“If you make it absolutely clear what these things are for, the markets will be more permissive. But the fiscal situation is tight,” he noted.

Manchester model

The government spent around 110 billion British pounds ($148bn) on debt interest in 2025-26 alone, about eight percent of all public spending. Borrowing has run higher than planned this year, and taxes are forecast to reach their highest share of the economy since World War II by the end of the decade.

Gareth Dale, associate head of Social and Political Sciences at Brunel University, points to Burnham’s record in Manchester, including the city’s fare-capped bus network, as proof that “meaningful reforms needn’t always come with a big price tag”.

Whether that scales up nationally will hinge on his willingness to confront the bond markets.

“What Burnham did in Manchester might be harder to do at a national level,” warned Menon. “He’s got to get the balance right between showing he’s aware of the fact that there’s a country outside of London and that isn’t just Manchester.”

Menon doubts fiscal manoeuvring alone will shift the public mood. He says that living standards have stagnated and services have eroded since 2008 so “people don’t just want to listen to what you’re saying, they want to see changes for the better in their lives”.

Burnham’s in-tray is complicated further by a diplomatic dispute that flared days before he is slated to take office. The government fully nationalised British Steel’s Scunthorpe works, a year after taking control of the loss-making plant when Chinese owner Jingye Group said it planned to close it.

Jingye has vowed to pursue “full compensation through legal means,” while China’s Ministry of Commerce accused London of undermining Chinese investor confidence.

It leaves Burnham managing a strained relationship with China from day one, after Starmer went to great efforts to reset relations between the two countries.

Beyond borders

Menon argues that much of what shapes a prime minister’s fortunes lies outside their control and outside Britain’s borders.

“Sometimes the drivers of political success and failure are utterly out of your hands,” he said. He cited the war in Ukraine, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic as reminders that a “medium-sized open economy” is exposed to forces it cannot direct.

That extends to Washington, where personal chemistry with US President Donald Trump will matter “at least for a while, until he goes off people”, Menon said.

Dependence on the US for defence and technology rules out any dramatic reconfiguring of British-US ties.

Menon expects European Union relations to get less attention than under Starmer, predicting Burnham to be “more avowedly domestic” focused.

This could still be tested by Gaza, where Burnham has apologised for the previous government’s stance. Menon cautions that turning words into policy “depends heavily on events”.

“He’s given some hints he’ll be less knee-jerkly supportive of Israel than Starmer was, but whether that carries over into power, we’ll have to wait and see,” explained Menon.

He also doubts whether Burnham would risk a rupture with Washington regarding US bases in Britain, which could be used, indirectly, in US-Israel war on Iran.

Defence first

Reports suggest that Burnham is likely to put defence above welfare spending, which will again rankle some in his party.

“He’ll probably prioritise arms spending over welfare… while dialling down the ‘net zero’ programme,” warns Dale, with Burnham expected to allow for new North Sea oil and gas drilling.

“And he voted to make the asylum system more brutal. If he does set policy in these directions, it’ll put wind in the sails of the far right, and probably accelerate the shift of voters from Labour to Green,” Dale said.

Burnham has moved from Labour’s Blairite wing to its soft left, but “commands widespread support among Labour MPs” and “gets on with various factions”, he noted.

But that unity masks deeper erosion: Labour’s vote fell from 12.9 million in 2017 to 9.7 million under Starmer.

The centre-left party’s support base is also “narrowing towards wealthier, less diverse parts of the electorate, with the Greens now drawing disillusioned voters on the left”, said Dale.

Political divides

That erosion is bound up with a wider polarisation in the country that Katwala says no government can avoid.

“I don’t think it’s enough to say we’d like to talk about jobs and devolving power and therefore we won’t talk about identity, immigration, race,” says Katwala.

He argues that fairness should be framed as universal rather than a concession to certain groups of society.

“Whether it’s tackling anti-Semitism, Islamophobia or racism generally, these are issues for everybody in society. It’s not for the minority group itself to work out how to challenge the prejudice it faces,” Katwala said.

“The people who are hostile to Muslims are the people who know the least Muslims and live furthest away. It’s the government’s job to get to that really tough end of attitudes and perceptions that are making people feel less safe.”

Menon sees a narrow opening on the right-wing narratives popularised by the Reform UK party.

Labour entered government in 2024 with 33 percent of the vote against Reform’s 14 percent, a gap that has since collapsed following the right-wing party’s links to George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster.

Recent polls put Reform around 24-26 percent and Labour close behind it, a marked turnaround from polling earlier this year.

By-election results also suggest a broad anti-Reform coalition and tactical voting exist, which should strengthen Labour.

“Even if 30 percent of people are willing to vote Reform, almost 70 percent are willing to do whatever it takes to stop them being elected,” Menon noted.

Whether that holds, he said, depends on how Burnham performs once the difficulties of government set in.

“It becomes a very different game when things are going badly, and if he ends up being a lucky general, then Reform self-destructs,” Menon said.