talks

Sources tell Al Jazeera that Pakistani mediators are hopeful about a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear programme.

A high-level Pakistani delegation has travelled to Iran to hold talks focused on arranging a fresh round of negotiations between Iran and the United States, a week before their fragile truce is due to expire.

Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir is heading the delegation that arrived in Tehran on Wednesday evening, according to Iranian state media. It said he came with a new message from the US and plans to coordinate a second round of US-Iran talks, after an initial round in Islamabad ended on Sunday without a deal to end the war.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is also joining mediation efforts in Tehran, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Saudi Arabia for the first stop in a four-day Gulf tour.

Pakistan’s diplomatic blitz comes as competing US and Iranian sea blockades strain tensions – and the global economy – but amid indications of progress towards a deal to end the war, which has killed 3,000 people in Iran and spiralled across the Middle East.

“The urgency is being driven by the ceasefire expiring on April 22, and Pakistani officials are hoping they can get that extended,” said Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett from Islamabad. “Sharif will try and convince regional partners to also use their leverage to convince the US to participate in new talks with Iran and make sure there is no diplomatic line-crossing.”

Washington ‘feels good’ about potential deal

The latest mediation appears bolstered by optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump, who said the world should brace for an “amazing two days” as the war with Iran is close to over.

Trump also said his negotiators were likely to return to Pakistan, thanks largely to the “great job” Munir was doing to moderate the talks.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later reiterated that additional talks with Iran would likely go forward in Islamabad. “We feel good about the prospects of a deal,” she told reporters on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the US military said its naval blockade on all Iranian ports was still in effect, with US forces “present, vigilant and ready to ensure compliance”.

The blockade, which Iran’s military slammed as a violation of the ceasefire, turned nine ships away as of Wednesday, according to US Central Command.

The commander of Iran’s joint military command, Ali Abdollahi, threatened to halt trade in the region if the US did not lift its blockade. He also warned Iran would retaliate by blocking trade through the Red Sea along with the Gulf and Sea of Oman.

‘Detractors on all sides’

Mediators in the conflict are pushing for a compromise on three main sticking points – Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages.

Iran’s Foreign Minister spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has said Iran is open to discussing the type and level of its uranium enrichment, but his country “based on its needs, must be able to continue enrichment”, according to Iranian state media.

Sources told Al Jazeera that Pakistani mediators are optimistic about a potential major breakthrough on the nuclear front, which is the reason for Munir’s rare diplomatic trip.

“It looks like there is some agreement in the making, but we’ve been cautioned by sources [close to the mediation effort] that there are detractors on all sides,” said Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid from Doha.

He said the detractors include elements “in Tehran, in Washington, DC, and biggest of them all, according to Pakistani sources, is Israel, which does not want a peace deal and wants a perpetual war in the region”.

U.S. and Iranian negotiators made significant progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, according to a report by Axios citing two U.S. officials.

Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are working urgently to bridge

April 15 (UPI) — U.S. President Donald Trump said peace talks with Iran “could be happening in the next two days,” with American negotiators most likely to return to Islamabad where the first round of talks at the weekend ended without a breakthrough.

In an interview with the New York Post on Tuesday, Trump said talks between the sides were “happening, but, you know, a little bit slow,” saying a new round of direct negotiations would probably be hosted by a country in Europe.

However, around 30 minutes after the interview had concluded, Trump called back to tell the Post that it should keep its reporter covering the talks in Islamabad in place and not bring them home.

“You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there [Islamabad]. It’s more likely, you know why? Because the field marshal is doing a great job,” Trump said, referencing Pakistan’s Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir who has a direct line of communication with the regime in Tehran and a strong relationship with Trump.

“He’s fantastic, and therefore it’s more likely that we go back there. Why should we go to some country that has nothing to do with it?” added Trump.

The Washington D.C.,-headquartered Institute for the Study of War also said a fresh round of negotiations was likely this week but said it believed Iran’s approach would be to try to buy time by spinning out the talks

“Iran likely aims to protract negotiations as long as possible in order to prepare for a potential resumption of conflict,” ISW said in a post on X.

The developments, which came as a fragile cease-fire that took effect April 7 entered its second week, followed earlier reports in which unnamed White House officials told CNBC, CNN and NBC News that in-person negotiations could restart before the truce expires on Tuesday.

Vice President JD Vance said round one of the talks in Islamabad, which ran for more than 20 hours, foundered on differences over Iran’s nuclear program — which the United States wants it to give up completely to ensure it can never develop a nuclear weapon — and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports later emerged that more progress had been made than initially suggested, with the sides getting close to agreement on nuclear enrichment after Iran countered U.S. demands for a 20-year suspension with an offer to halt all enrichment for 5 years.

Trump told the Post he was unhappy with the thinking that a moratorium on enrichment, instead of terminating the program, would make the regime in Tehran more amenable to a lasting peace agreement by providing them a face-saving “success” to sell to the Iranian people.

“I’ve been saying they can’t have nuclear weapons. So I don’t like the 20 years. I don’t want them [Iran] to feel like they have a win.”

Experts concurred with Trump’s analysis, saying the only way to guarantee Iran would not be able to pursue a nuclear weapon in the future was to make sure the entire program was put beyond use, in a verifiable way, and that it needed to happen while Trump was still in office.

Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a 2025 deal between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, enrichment by Tehran of its 300 Kg stockpile of uranium was capped at 3.67%, in exchange for sanctions relief.

However, that deal lapsed in October, although in practice it was long dead after Trump pulled the United States out of the agreement in May 2018, during his first term, with Iran subsequently proceeding to enrich an expanded 441 kg uranium stockpile to around 60%, not far short of weapons grade.

European stocks were mostly steady on Wednesday as investors weighed signals from Washington that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war could be imminent.

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The pan-European Stoxx 600 had ticked down 0.1%, Germany’s Dax edged 0.11% higher and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.11%. The CAC 40 in France fell by a slightly greater margin, at 0.65%.

US President Donald Trump said fresh talks between Washington and Tehran “could be happening over the next two days” in Islamabad, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough, and added that the war was “very close to over” — despite continued uncertainty over key sticking points in negotiations.

Asian markets were broadly higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7%.

The Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to its gains from the previous day, and the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is now just 0.2% below its record set in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2%.

On Wednesday, benchmark US crude inched up by 1 cent to $91.29 a barrel.

Brent crude added 48 cents to $95.27, or less than 1%, after falling 4.6% the previous day. While that is still above its roughly $70 level from before the war began in late February, it remains well below the peak of $119.

Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses across the economy. However, some analysts noted that the war is still ongoing, warning that the optimism may prove unfounded.

“The counterintuitive decline in crude appears driven by growing hopes that a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran could soon materialise, after the first attempt fizzled out,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“Traders are clearly choosing to price in the possibility of de-escalation rather than the immediate reality of restricted flows,” he added.

Asian nations depend on access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is the main route for crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf to reach customers worldwide. Disruptions there have kept oil off the global market, driving up prices.

Global inflation this year is expected to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, which had previously forecast a slowdown to 3.8%.

The IMF also downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% this year, from 3.3% projected in January.

Overall, the S&P 500 rose 81.14 points to 6,967.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 455.35 points to 23,639.08.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30% late Monday.

In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.03 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro stood at $1.1780, down from $1.1797.

US stocks climbed to the brink of a record high on Tuesday, while oil prices eased as hopes grew that Washington and Tehran may resume talks to end their war.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, leaving it just 0.2% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2%, tracking broader global market gains.

Investors are betting that renewed diplomacy could prevent a prolonged surge in oil prices and inflation, allowing focus to return to corporate earnings.

Brent crude for June delivery fell 4.6% to $94.79, down from recent highs, though still above pre-war levels.

However, volatility remains high, with markets sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.

After the first direct talks in decades, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to begin ongoing negotiations for the ‘security of both countries’. Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna explains why US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sees this ‘milestone’ meeting as just the ‘start of the process’.

The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the United States arrived at the State Department in Washington for their countries’ first direct talks in decades. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting the discussions.

Trading on Tuesday began with high expectations that the Iran war is inching to a close, fuelling gains across major stock markets and pushing oil back under $100 a barrel.

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Investors remained hopeful for a lasting de-escalation of the conflict, now in its seventh week, as the US and Iran are said to be weighing a second round of talks before a temporary ceasefire agreement expires next week.

The US military on Monday began a blockade of Iranian ports as Washington steps up pressure on Tehran, following weekend ceasefire talks between the two sides that ended without agreement.

Trump also suggested on Monday that the United States is still willing to engage with Tehran.

“I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side,” he said, without elaborating further.

Oil prices continued to pull back on Tuesday from earlier gains.

Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.8% at $98.62 per barrel, nearing 8 am CET.

It reached nearly $104 early on Monday amid Iran war concerns and limited progress in weekend ceasefire talks.

Benchmark US crude fell 1.7% early Tuesday to $97.40 a barrel.

The global energy shock stemming from maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil is typically transported, has led to surging fuel prices and threatens to push up inflation in many countries and weigh on economic growth.

Stock markets are hungry for good news

Investors were quick to recover after the dismal first trading day on Monday. Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to 6,004.30.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 25,759.75, while the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,010.45.

This comes as China on Tuesday reported worse-than-expected export growth.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded its exports by 2.5% in March year on year, significantly slower than the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand.

The March data missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded in January and February.

Wall Street rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.

Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 1.9% despite the investment bank posting better-than-expected quarterly profits.

In other trading, gold and silver prices rose on Tuesday. Gold was up 0.6% at $4,796.60 (€4,219.62) an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $77.05 (€67.80) per ounce.

The US dollar fell to ¥159.08 from ¥159.45. The euro was trading at $1.1766, up from $1.1759.

Relief for global markets comes after Trump says Iranian officials are keen on a deal.

Asia’s main stock markets have surged, and oil prices have declined amid renewed hopes for ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

The relief for global markets on Tuesday came after US President Donald Trump said overnight that Iranian officials had reached out to his administration and expressed their openness to a deal.

“We’ve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly,” Trump said in remarks at the White House.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose as much as 2.5 percent on Tuesday, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 3.7 percent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed about 0.6 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up about 0.4 percent in the early afternoon, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai was about 0.5 percent higher.

The rally in Asia followed gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500 finishing up 1 percent overnight.

Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, dipped nearly 1.5 percent, falling below $98 a barrel.

The positive turn for markets came despite the US following through on its threat to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that analysts warn is likely to exacerbate the energy shortage that is roiling the global economy.

Brent had surged above $103 per barrel after Trump on Sunday threatened to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.

The US military later clarified that the blockade would only apply to vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, in an apparent scaling back of Trump’s threat to fully close the waterway.

Iran has effectively halted shipping through the strait since the start of the war on February 28, throwing the global energy market into a tailspin.

Only 21 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, according to maritime intelligence provider Windward, compared with roughly 130 daily transits before the start of the conflict.

Naim Qassem says planned talks in Washington, DC, are a ploy to pressure Hezbollah into laying down its weapons.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has rejected an upcoming meeting between the Lebanese government and Israel in the United States, calling such efforts “futile” as Israeli forces intensify their attacks on Lebanon.

In a televised speech on Monday, Qassem called on the government to take “a historic and heroic stance” by not attending the planned talks.

The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the US are scheduled to meet in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to discuss holding direct negotiations between the two countries.

Qassem said the talks are a ploy to pressure Hezbollah into laying down its weapons.

“Israel clearly states that the goal of these negotiations is to disarm Hezbollah, as [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu repeatedly states. So, how can you go to negotiations whose objective is already clear?” Qassem said.

“We will not rest, stop or surrender. Instead, we will let the battlefield speak for itself,” he added.

Israel intensified its war on Lebanon in early March following a salvo of rockets launched by Hezbollah. A ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group had ostensibly been in effect since November 2024, but Israel continued carrying out near-daily deadly attacks.

Hezbollah said its March 2 attack was retaliation for the US and Israel’s killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two days earlier, on the first day of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Since then, Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon and a ground invasion in the south have killed at least 2,055 people, including 165 children and 87 medical workers. More than 6,500 others have been wounded, while some 1.2 million have been forced from their homes.

Lebanese authorities insist the priority is to secure a ceasefire, but Israel has said it wants to open formal peace negotiations with Lebanon. It has placed Hezbollah’s disarmament as a priority, with no mention of a ceasefire or withdrawal of its forces from southern Lebanon.

“We want the dismantling of Hezbollah’s weapons, and we want a real peace agreement that will last for generations,” Netanyahu said on Saturday.

Qassem said the planned talks “require a Lebanese consensus to shift our approach from non-negotiation to direct negotiations”, calling them a “free concession” to Israel and the US.

His speech came after hundreds of people in the capital, Beirut, protested on Friday and Saturday against the planned talks. Demonstrators accused Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of betraying the Lebanese people by holding direct talks with Israel, while it continues its bombing campaign and expands its invasion.

The Israeli military on Monday said its forces had completely surrounded the key southern town of Bint Jbeil, while Hezbollah continued to claim attacks against Israeli forces there.

Qassem said that northern Israeli localities “will not be safe, even if the Israelis were to enter any area of Lebanon”. He also accused Beirut of “backstabbing” his group by declaring Hezbollah’s military activities illegal at the start of the war.

“Israel and the US clearly said they want to strengthen the Lebanese army to disarm and fight Hezbollah … but the army cannot do that,” Qassem added.

UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer has announced talks to be held this week and co-hosted with France, aiming at a diplomatic end to the war on Iran and securing safe passage in the Gulf shipping afterwards.

Islamabad, Pakistan – More than 12 hours of face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran ended without agreement in Islamabad on Sunday, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire as the only barrier between diplomacy and a return to war.

Pakistan, which spent weeks positioning itself as a mediator and succeeded in bringing both sides into the same room, emerged with its role intact. But officials acknowledge the harder phase now begins — getting American and Iranian negotiators back into talks before their differences explode into full-fledged war again.

“Pakistan has been and will continue to play its role to facilitate engagements and dialogue between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America in the days to come,” Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said in a statement after the conclusion of the talks.

The talks, the highest-level direct engagement between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, faltered over differences surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme.

“The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” said US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, Vance left a narrow opening for the resumption of talks.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” Vance said, tapping the podium for emphasis, before ending his brief remarks, which lasted for less than five minutes.

Pakistani and Iranian sources confirmed that the Iranian delegation met senior Pakistani officials later on Sunday before departing for Tehran, though details of those discussions remain unclear.

What is clear is that Pakistan isn’t giving up yet.

Washington’s red lines

US officials said that Iran had entered negotiations misreading its leverage, believing it held advantages that, in Washington’s assessment, it did not.

According to these officials, Vance spent much of his time during the talks correcting what they described as Iranian misperceptions about the US position — asserting that no deal would be possible without a full commitment on the nuclear issue.

Officials also suggested that Trump’s subsequent announcement of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was not an impulsive reaction, but a pre-planned step aimed at removing the waterway as an Iranian bargaining tool and forcing the nuclear issue back to the centre of any future talks.

But the US officials, speaking on background, also acknowledged that the gulf in the positions between Washington and Tehran that they failed to bridge extended to issues beyond Iran’s nuclear programme.

In essence, they said, the two sides failed to agree on six key points: ending all uranium enrichment; dismantling major enrichment facilities; removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium; accepting a broader regional security framework involving US allies; ending funding for groups Washington designates as “terrorist” organisations, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

Hours after the talks ended, Trump acknowledged partial progress, but underscored the central impasse.

“The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not,” he wrote on Truth Social.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

Iran has effectively controlled access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass, since the US-Israeli attacks began on February 28.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has imposed what analysts describe as a de facto toll system, requiring vessels to secure clearance codes and transit under escort through a controlled corridor.

The disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel at times, unsettling global markets and placing sustained pressure on energy-importing countries across Asia and Europe.

Tehran has framed its control of the strait as both a security measure and a key negotiating lever, one it has shown little willingness to relinquish without a broader settlement.

Tehran’s point of view

Iran’s account of the breakdown differed sharply.

In a post on X early on April 13, after returning to Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country had engaged in “good faith”, only to face shifting demands.

“When just inches away from an Islamabad MoU, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” he wrote. “Zero lessons learned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.”

The reference to an “Islamabad MoU”, a memorandum of understanding, was the clearest public signal yet that the two sides had come closer to a formal agreement than either government had previously acknowledged.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the country’s delegation, said his team had proposed “forward-looking initiatives”, but failed to secure trust.

“Due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side,” he wrote on Sunday.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also pointed to partial progress but unresolved differences.

“On some issues we actually reached mutual understanding, but there was a gap over two or three important issues and ultimately the talks didn’t result in an agreement,” he said.

Tehran’s key demands, including an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, the release of $6bn in frozen assets, guarantees on its nuclear programme and the right to charge vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, remained unmet.

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, however, offered a more measured view — suggesting that Tehran was not closing the window on talks.

“The Islamabad Talks is not an event but a process,” he wrote in his message on X on Sunday. “The Islamabad Talks laid the foundation for a diplomatic process that, if trust and will are strengthened, can create a sustainable framework for the interests of all parties.”

Pakistan’s balancing act

For Pakistan, analysts say, the outcome represents a setback but not a failure.

Officials were careful to describe the talks as “an important opening step in a continuing diplomatic process”, stressing that issues of such complexity cannot be resolved in a single round.

The emphasis, they said, was on keeping the channel open.

Muhammad Obaidullah, a former Pakistan Navy commodore who has served in Iran as a diplomat, said expectations of a breakthrough were always unrealistic.

“The mere fact of bringing both parties face to face is a significant diplomatic achievement in itself,” he told Al Jazeera. “The diplomacy is not dead.”

Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor emeritus of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, went further.

“The talks did not collapse; they concluded without agreement but with a defined US offer on the table and the channel still intact,” he said.

“Pakistan’s role was to move the crisis from escalation to structured engagement, which it achieved. The absence of convergence reflects structural differences between the US and Iran, not a failure of mediation.”

Both Trump and Iranian officials have praised Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir for their efforts to secure the ceasefire, and for hosting the talks in Islamabad. That, say analysts, suggests that they remain open to further Pakistan-brokered negotiations.

Sahar Baloch, a Germany-based scholar of Iran, said that trust remains Pakistan’s most valuable asset.

“The real test of credibility is not preventing breakdowns, but remaining relevant after them,” she said.

Fragile ceasefire

The immediate threat to Pakistan’s role comes from the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and in Lebanon.

Iran has already warned that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon could render negotiations meaningless. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has framed such attacks as a direct challenge to the ceasefire.

Trump’s blockade announcement now adds pressure from a second front.

Ahmad, a former Pakistan chair at Oxford University, warned that a collapse of the truce would sharply narrow diplomatic options.

“If the ceasefire collapses, the immediate consequence is the loss of the diplomatic window,” he said. “A second round becomes far more difficult because both sides would return to negotiating under active escalation, where positions tend to harden rather than converge.”

Obaidullah drew a historical parallel with the US naval quarantine of Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis. What if China were to use its own ships to import Iranian oil? Would the US attack them?

“The world will again be watching who blinks first,” Obaidullah said. “However, it may turn into a far greater conflict if neither side does.”

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 brought the US and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war, after Washington discovered Moscow had installed nuclear missiles on Cuban soil, within striking distance of the American mainland.

The US blocked the Soviets from providing more equipment to Cuba, and eventually, a diplomatic settlement was reached, with the Soviets agreeing to withdraw the missiles in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba.

Baloch, the Berlin-based scholar, agreed that the situation remains volatile.

“The ceasefire risks becoming more symbolic than substantive,” she said. “But paradoxically, escalation can sometimes force a return to talks, even if under more urgent and less favourable conditions.”

What is the road ahead?

Pakistan’s room for manoeuvring is also shaped by its economic fragility.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy prices, compounding pressures on an economy already under strain before the conflict.

Ahmad said this creates both urgency and limits.

“Economic exposure, especially to energy shocks and external financing, creates urgency for Pakistan to prevent a prolonged conflict,” he said.

“But it also reinforces a constraint: Pakistan cannot afford escalation with either side. Its leverage is not coercive; it is positional. It comes from being the only channel acceptable to both sides, not from the ability to impose outcomes,” Ahmad said.

Eight days remain until the end of the initial two-week truce, a window Pakistani officials said privately represents a genuine opportunity for further technical and political alignment, if both sides choose to use it.

Ahmad suggested that any breakthrough would depend on creating a sequence of steps acceptable to both sides.

“The US is asking for early nuclear commitments; Iran is asking for guarantees and relief first,” he said.

Pakistan’s role, he added, would be to help “structure this sequencing, keep both sides engaged, and prevent breakdown at each stage”.

Islamabad won’t be the one drafting a deal itself, he emphasised, noting, “At this point, maintaining the channel is as important as the substance of the deal itself.”

Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

President Donald Trump is considering renewed military action against Iran, including limited strikes, following the breakdown of negotiations in Pakistan, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing officials familiar with the discussions.

A broader bombing campaign remains an option but

April 12 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iran’s shipping lanes after peace talks in Pakistan failed to produce a deal.

Vice President J.D. Vance, who Trump sent to negotiate a deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, said Saturday that the talks were not successful because the two sides cannot agree on what to do about the Iranian nuclear stockpile and who will control the Strait, CNN and The Washington Post reported.

Trump told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo that the United States was going to block the Strait — it will “take a little while, but it’ll be effective pretty soon,” he said — and that nations in the Gulf region have agreed to help in the effort.

The blockade, he said, will prevent “any and all ships” from entering or leaving the the waterway, including vessels belonging to Iran, which have been shipping its oil to other countries and reportedly been bringing weapons parts from China to the Middle Eastern nation.

Vance told reporters early Sunday morning that while Iran had not yet accepted the United States’ “final and best offer,” he expressed optimism that a deal can be reached.

“We just could not get to a situation where the Iranians were willing to accept our terms,” Vance said. “I think that we were quite flexible.”

In a post on X, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is Iran’s leading negotiator in the talks, said that he and his colleagues had “raised forward looking initiatives, but the opposing side ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiations.”

“Before the negotiations, I emphasized that we have the necessary good faith and will, but due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side,” he said.

“If there’s one thing we’ve learned about President Trump, particularly in this term, it also applies to his first term, you have to draw a distinction between what he says and how he says it, particularly on social media, and what he does,” Streeting said.

US Vice President JD Vance is leaving Pakistan after 21 hours of talks with Iran, saying Tehran chose not to accept their ‘final and best offer’. Here’s his full press conference in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump says ‘we win regardless of what happens’ in Iran talks. His comments outside the White House came as US and Iranian delegations continue negotiating late into the night in Islamabad.

The Strait of Hormuz is believed to be a key sticking point as Iran and the US continue negotiations in the Pakistani capital.

April 11 (UPI) — Talks between the United States and Iran began Saturday morning between the two delegations in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Vice President JD Vance arrived at 10:30 a.m. PKT. At Nur Khan air base, Vance walked down a red carpet and met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif said Friday that the United States is at a “make or break” moment in a national address Friday.

It’s not clear if the talks are direct or indirect, but CNN reported the talks are a mixture of both.

Though there was heavy security, with road closures and checkpoints, the mood in Pakistan was jubilant, The Washington Post reported.

Both sides have repeatedly accused the other of violating the fragile cease-fire that began last week. The United States has said Iran is violating the agreement because the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Only two ships passed through it on Friday, The New York Times reported. Iran is angry that Israel continues to attack Lebanon, though Israel and the United States say they never agreed to stop fighting in Lebanon.

Israel has hit more than 200 targets in Lebanon affiliated with Hezbollah in the past 24 hours, The Times reported the Israeli military said.

Iran can’t find all the mines it set in the strait, The Times reported that U.S. officials said Friday, causing a snarl in Iran’s ability to comply with American demands.

Saturday morning, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is “clearing out” the strait.

“We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves. Very interestingly, however, empty Oil carrying ships from many Nations are all heading to the United States of America to LOAD UP with Oil.”

He didn’t clarify what “clearing out” of the strait means.

On Friday, he said that Iranians must negotiate.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

The U.S. delegation includes envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranian side has more than a dozen senior officials, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, along with senior security officials and Iran’s central bank governor, The Post reported.

Both sides seem motivated to see the war come to an end, but they remain at odds on several issues. Control of the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, Iran’s enriched uranium and withdrawal of the U.S. military in the region are some of the sticking points.