strategic

BEIRUT: Since a ceasefire went into effect between Israel and Hezbollah more than two months ago, fighting has stopped in much of Lebanon, but not on a strategic hill overlooking parts of a main southern city.

In recent weeks, Ali Taher hill has been the scene of daily shelling and airstrikes by Israel’s military. Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Iran, has repeatedly attacked Israeli forces in the area with drones.

The United States, which is mediating talks between Lebanon and Israel, had wanted Hezbollah to hand over the hill to the Lebanese army as part of larger plan to disarm the militant group and dismantle its infrastructure. But Hezbollah has refused.

Lebanon and Israel reached a framework agreement in June stating Israel will withdraw from Lebanon as Hezbollah is disarmed. The militant group was not a party to the negotiations and has rejected calls to disarm in areas north of the Litani river, which is where Ali Taher is located.

A full-on battle over this hill near the city of Nabatiyeh could escalate fighting across the country, and unrest in Lebanon complicates efforts to resolve the war in Iran.

On Thursday night, Israel’s military announced it had taken “operational control” of Ali Taher and a network of tunnels beneath it that Hezbollah uses to shelter its fighters and weapons. It is unclear how far Israel’s control extends. Just before Israel’s announcement, its air force was still targeting the hill, according to Lebanese state media.

There has been no official statement from Hezbollah since Israel’s announcement.

US pushes Lebanon to pressure Hezbollah

Hezbollah firmly rejected a proposal from the Lebanese government to hand over Ali Taher to the country’s army. It fears Israel would then seize control of the hill from the Lebanese army and then demand the handover of more territory.

Israel had occupied Ali Taher for 18 years before it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.

The hill has a strategic location overlooking several villages as well as main roads leading to Nabatiyeh. Losing full control of it would disrupt Hezbollah’s presence and supply lines in the area.

The Israeli military says the site is also important to Hezbollah because of tunnels it built there, with funding from Iran.

Israel said in its statement Thursday that the hill housed underground command centers, weapons storage rooms, generators, living quarters, showers and a kitchen. Israel said it cleared Ali Taher of Hezbollah fighters and was working to “neutralize underground infrastructure sites.”

Hezbollah legislator Ihab Hamadeh questioned why the Israeli military was still attacking the hill if it was really in control of the area, according to the Arabic-language version of Russia’s state-funded news outlet Sputnik. An Associated Press photographer who visited the nearby village of Kfar Rumman on Friday saw no sign of Israeli military presence on the hill.

The hill, topped with a shrine to a Muslim scholar, sits north of the Litani river, which has become the de facto boundary of the area captured by Israel since its latest war with Hezbollah began in early March.

Fighting in the area has heated up in recent weeks

Israel has been conducting military operations around Ali Taher since July, said Nasser Khdour, a Middle East researcher at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED, a US-based group that tracks conflicts around the world.

Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qamati told a Lebanese podcaster in late August that the group’s fighters were repelling attempts by Israeli troops to take Ali Taher. But he, and others, downplayed the significance of the site should Israel take it.

“Ali Taher is important, but if it is lost it does not mean the end of Hezbollah,” Qamati said.

In mid-August, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes on southern Lebanon that it described as retaliation for a Hezbollah drone attack on Ali Taher that seriously wounded three soldiers. The Israeli strikes, which killed 11 people, including women and children, were the deadliest since the US-brokered ceasefire went into effect in late June.

On Aug. 27, Israel carried out a series of airstrikes, killing one person and wounding six, after the military said Hezbollah fired two explosive drones at Israeli troops in the area. Hezbollah did not claim responsibility for any of the attacks.

Lebanon says Israel is hindering its army

Lebanon’s Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri told an Arab TV station in late August that the Lebanese army was ready to take over Ali Taher.

He accused Israel of blocking the army due to its own political considerations ahead of Israeli national elections on Oct. 27.

“The problem is not in the Lebanese army’s readiness but in Israel’s stance,” he said.

Lebanese and Israeli officials are set to meet for negotiations in Rome later this month. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, which has always refused to speak directly to the US, appears to be changing its policy after the major setbacks it has suffered during its wars with Israel since 2024.

A Lebanese official told The Associated Press that indirect contacts are going on between the US and Hezbollah, but refused to give any details. He spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations.

The US ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, said recently that Washington is ready to speak with Hezbollah if the group agrees to disarm.

Still, Hezbollah is not likely to take any move forward regarding talks with the US without a green light from its main backer, Iran. While talks with the US over their war have stalled, Iran has sought guarantees that Israel will halt its attacks on Hezbollah as part of any permanent deal.

Capture of Ali Taher could lead Israel to other Hezbollah strongholds

The capture of Ali Taher would open the way to Nabatiyeh and also lead to the nearby Apple Province and Rihan Mountain, where Hezbollah has been building up its presence since the late 1990s.

Israeli leaders have repeatedly pledged to leave troops in Lebanon and threatened to escalate military pressure until Hezbollah disarms.

“Israeli control of the area is an operational and military setback for Hezbollah,” said Khdour of ACLED. He said clearing these sites helps Israel protect towns in the northern part of its country, and increases pressure on Hezbollah.

“This will strengthen Israel’s position in any future negotiations over its withdrawal,” said Khdour.

Drones of an unknown origin were reportedly sighted over the remote joint U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia installation located deep in the Indian Ocean. As we have frequently reported, this island base has long been a highly strategic operating location for the U.S. military. Beyond its large airfield that has been an epicenter of bomber operations over the decades, it plays many roles for the Pentagon. These include hosting Space Force operations, serving as a key port for U.S. Navy vessels, including nuclear submarines, and its lagoon provides shelter for a Sealift Command Prepositioning Ship Squadron.

The installation was targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles during the Epic Fury operation, but the threat posed by drones is even more plausible for the island outpost, especially at this extremely tense time as the standoff between the U.S. and Iran grinds on.

The issue of reported drones over Diego Garcia highlights a plausible threat of sea-launched drones that TWZ has been drawing attention to for years now. It also again raises concerns about the danger to critical infrastructure and aircraft parked in the open at Diego Garcia and many other U.S. installations. This is another issue TWZ has been highlighting for years.

“We are aware of reported sightings of drones (UAS) over Diego Garcia,” the U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) told us Monday morning. “We are unable to provide any details about a situation which may affect the security or operation of the joint U.K.-U.S. base on Diego Garcia.”

“The U.S. and U.K. Commanding Officers on Diego Garcia consider and implement appropriate measures to ensure the security and safety of the base and the safety of the personnel on the island,” MoD added.

U.S. officials were less forthcoming.

“As a matter of operational security, we do not discuss specific force protection measures or security procedures at U.S. military installations,” an official from U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) told us on Friday. “We remain vigilant in protecting U.S. personnel and facilities.”

Neither MoD nor PACOM would say what kinds of drones were sighted, when they were sighted, who was operating them or what, if any, defensive measures were taken as a result. Both military organizations were responding to our questions about an Aug. 7 posting on the Air Force amn/nco/snco Facebook page, an unofficial social media channel that posts about service topics.

“Inbox: ‘Diego Garcia. Drones spotted near fuel farm. Base on 0700 to 1900 curfew until further notice’ Note: message us if you have further information, thanks,” the post read.

On Sunday, the page published a second post on the topic titled “Diego Garcia Curfew reportedly due to Drone Threats.” The post displayed what the page purported to be an official listing of curfew times for various locations around the installation.

We cannot independently confirm the accuracy of these posts and have reached out to MoD and PACOM for details. MoD did not specify who reported the drone sightings over Diego Garcia, so we have asked for clarification. Making this an even more unusual event, Diego Garcia is essentially a closed island with no significant general population or tourists around to be operating drones on a recreational basis. So seeing one or more over the base would certainly raise alarms.

Though Diego Garcia is about 1,000 miles from Sri Lanka, the nearest large landmass, its remote location does not rule out the possibility of drone incursions by an adversary.

During the run-up to the launch of the Epic Fury operation against Iran, the FBI sent out an alert warning about the possibility of an Iranian drone attack on targets in California using uncrewed aircraft launched from ships off the coast. Though the alert was based on raw, unverified intelligence, and was sent out of an abundance of caution rather than any fears of an imminent action, the overall threat of drone attacks from ships is very real. You can read our feature about this very real threat vector and its relation to that questionable intelligence release here.

Generally speaking, there are long-standing concerns that Iran and/or other actors operating on its behalf could seek to launch asymmetric attacks on targets in the United States, as well as elsewhere outside of the Middle East, in retaliation for large-scale strikes or even in an unprovoked manner. The risks of Iranians deciding to take such action have historically been seen as especially high in any scenario where there might be an existential threat to the regime in Tehran.

There were enough concerns about an Iranian attack on Diego Garcia that F-16s were deployed there in February, before the war erupted, for protection primarily against one-way attack drones and cruise missiles. F-15Es were first deployed to Diego Garcia for this same purpose last year, in what appeared to be a first of its kind force protection change. As noted earlier, Iran clearly sees the installation as a top target, as it has long been something of a refuge for U.S. forces to fallback from the Middle East from, if need be. Iran subsequently launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia during Epic Fury; however, neither struck the base.

The threat from drones launched by ships is not just limited to Iran. Russia is suspected of sending drones over key European military installations from vessels.

Long-range one-way attack drones with endurance measured in many hundreds of miles, if not more than a thousand miles, are increasingly a staple in military arsenals globally, and have also been proliferating to non-state actors. Yet the drone threat isn’t just limited to these kinds of weapons for remote locales like islands. Ukraine has carried out devastating attacks on Russian radars and other targets on Crimea and elsewhere using short-range aerial drones launched by uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). This same capability set is proliferating around the globe, allowing for the USV to work as a relatively low-cost delivery system for highly precise and relatively inexpensive short-range drones that can then execute near-field attacks. The U.S. and others are also developing similar capabilities for its submarines and future uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs), which could even more easily sneak into close proximity to targets ashore before launching their deadly drone munitions.

The following video shows a Ukrainian USV launching drones against Russian targets: