Strait

The war in Yemen is threatening to open a new front as the Iran-allied Houthi rebels are trying to advance along the Red Sea coast, through the mountain chains of Taiz province, edging closer to strategic ground that overlooks one of the world’s most vital maritime arteries.

For the internationally recognised Yemeni government, this is an offensive with global consequences.

In Wednesday’s interview with Al Jazeera, Yemen’s Ambassador to Qatar, Rajeh Badi, a former government spokesman, said that his government and its armed forces had not violated any truce since 2021.

The Houthis, he argued, are “the aggressors”. “What we are seeing now is a surprise Houthi offensive to seize strategic ground along the Red Sea, in order to allow Iran, through its Houthi proxy, to tighten its grip on maritime routes,” Badi said.

He added that the Houthis, who have advanced on al-Makha (Mocha) and al-Waziyah, and over large stretches of the mountain chain overlooking the Red Sea in Taiz province, “want commanding positions to launch more effective strikes on ships and disrupt navigation in the Red Sea”.

Badi said the Yemeni government responded by opening fronts in al-Jawf, Marib and al-Bayda, and that the consequences could extend far beyond Yemen.

“We are now facing a real threat that does not stop at Yemen’s borders,” he said. “It threatens the entire region and the world. If the Houthis manage to choke maritime traffic in the Red Sea, we will be looking at another Hormuz in these waters – with potentially even greater impact.”

The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb “represent a vital artery for global shipping, for both energy and food supplies”, he added.

A chokepoint that belongs to the world

Bab al-Mandeb connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. To the north, the Red Sea leads to the Suez Canal, while farther east, beyond the Arabian Sea, lies another critical chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. This geography is what gives Yemen’s conflict consequences far beyond its borders, as Saudi Arabia is already being drawn into the confrontation.

The Houthis have targeted Saudi territory, civilian infrastructure in the kingdom’s south and Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea.

Major-General Turki al-Maliki, spokesman of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, said the Houthis on Wednesday attacked Saudi cities of Khamis Mushait, Abha, and Jizan with ballistic missiles and drones. He did not elaborate on any casualties as a result of the attacks.

Badi, who has spoken to the media for the first time since taking up his post, said those attacks are designed to change the nature of the war.

“By targeting Saudi territory, civilian infrastructure in the kingdom’s south, and Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea, the Houthis are trying to drag Saudi Arabia into their war. Their calculation is simple: they want to rebrand this conflict as a Saudi-Yemeni war,” he said.

The ambassador assessed that “every time their militias suffer heavy losses inside Yemen at the hands of the Yemeni armed forces, they respond by firing missiles and drones at civilian sites in Saudi Arabia, in an attempt to inflame Yemeni public opinion and convince the outside world that Yemen is at war with Saudi Arabia”.

The conflict, he said, is fundamentally about Yemen’s state and its future. The Yemeni people are fighting to “reclaim their state, their republic, their dignity and their stability”.

Iran’s hidden hand

Behind Yemen’s fragmented front lines, a larger regional confrontation looms, and its architect, according to Badi, is Iran.

The official said that Tehran’s relationship with the Houthis is now impossible to hide. “Iranian officials openly boast about it, and Houthi leaders proudly talk about their ‘strategic’ ties with Tehran,” he said.

The Houthis are “one of Iran’s key regional arms – just like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq. Many of Tehran’s other proxies have come under pressure,” he added.

“Former Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi used to say that if Iran gains control over Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, it will not need a nuclear weapon – its grip over these two chokepoints would be more powerful than any nuclear arsenal. Events have proved him right,” Badi recalled.

‘We have exhausted all peaceful avenues’

For Yemen’s government, the alternative to another war was supposed to be diplomacy.

Badi urged the world “to stand with us so we can rid ourselves of this scourge – a threat that no longer targets Yemenis alone”.

“We have exhausted all peaceful avenues. For more than 13 years, we have been engaging in dialogue rounds and signing agreements, whether inside Yemen or after the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa,” he said.

Badi added that the Houthi rebels have effectively “buried peaceful options. Peace is simply not part of this movement’s culture or mindset. That is what ultimately forced us to take up arms”.

“The world must understand this difficult equation,” the ambassador concluded, that the Houthis are “an armed proxy, an extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Houthis do not represent us”.

The Strait of Hormuz has become the central pressure point in the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran. Before the conflict, roughly 20 million barrels of oil moved through the narrow waterway each day, equivalent to about one fifth of global oil consumption. For years, traders could therefore rely on relatively consistent estimates of the volumes passing through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

That certainty has now disappeared.

The use of “dark crossings,” in which tankers switch off their identification and navigation systems, has made vessel movements increasingly difficult to monitor. Satellite imagery, port records, tanker drafts, loading schedules and shipping data are being used to reconstruct movements, but the information remains incomplete. Recent estimates of Hormuz flows have differed dramatically, leaving traders and governments uncertain about the true scale of oil moving through the waterway.

The uncertainty comes as Brent crude has moved above the $100 a barrel threshold for the first time since July, driven by renewed military escalation and concerns over Middle Eastern oil supplies.

The Hormuz Information Gap

The most unusual feature of the current oil crisis is not simply that supplies may have fallen. It is that markets cannot confidently determine how much oil is actually moving.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said more than 17 million barrels crossed the strait on August 31 under U.S. Navy supervision. Shipping intelligence firm Kpler, however, estimated that only around 6 million barrels crossed that day. Kpler put average August flows at approximately 4.3 million barrels per day, with flows rising to nearly 5 million barrels per day during the first days of September.

The difference could partly reflect different methodologies, including whether shipments using alternative routes outside Hormuz are included. Tankers that remain invisible to tracking systems for days or even weeks make the picture even harder to reconstruct.

This means that traders are attempting to price global oil supplies without reliable visibility over one of the world’s most important supply arteries.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

Hormuz is strategically important because of the enormous concentration of energy exports that normally pass through it. Any sustained disruption can affect crude supplies, tanker availability, insurance costs and shipping times, eventually feeding into fuel prices and broader inflation.

The current situation is different from a straightforward blockade. The strait has not necessarily become completely impassable. Instead, its reliability has been severely compromised.

That distinction matters because a tanker does not have to be physically prevented from crossing for markets to react. The possibility that vessels may be delayed, attacked or unable to cross safely is enough to increase the cost of transporting oil.

As a result, the market is responding not only to actual supply losses but also to the risk of future disruption.

Iran’s Strategic Leverage

Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic remains an important source of leverage despite indications that its military capabilities around Hormuz have been weakened.

U.S. demining operations and a growing U.S.-protected shipping corridor along Oman’s coast have allowed more vessels to enter and leave the Gulf. At the same time, Iran-linked forces continue to threaten commercial shipping, meaning Tehran retains the ability to create uncertainty even if it cannot completely shut down the waterway.

This gives Iran a form of asymmetric leverage. Tehran does not necessarily need to close Hormuz completely to impose economic costs. Sporadic attacks, warnings or restrictions can increase insurance premiums, delay shipments and encourage traders to price in a greater possibility of supply disruption.

The renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have added another layer of risk by threatening alternative routes that have become increasingly important as traffic through Hormuz has declined.

Impact on Global Oil Markets

The immediate consequence is a higher geopolitical risk premium on crude.

Oil prices normally respond to measurable fundamentals such as production, consumption, inventories and transportation. But when the market cannot establish how much oil is moving through Hormuz, uncertainty itself becomes part of the fundamental picture.

This can keep prices elevated even if actual physical supply losses are smaller than feared.

Brent has already moved above $100 a barrel, while analysts and major financial institutions have raised their oil price forecasts as concerns about prolonged disruption increase.

For oil-importing countries, sustained high crude prices could translate into higher fuel and transportation costs, increased inflationary pressure and greater economic uncertainty. Airlines, manufacturers and businesses dependent on energy-intensive supply chains would also face higher operating costs.

Economic and Geopolitical Implications

The crisis demonstrates how vulnerable the global energy system remains to a single strategic chokepoint.

For the United States, maintaining freedom of navigation through Hormuz is not simply a military objective. It is also essential to preventing a regional conflict from becoming a wider global energy crisis.

For Gulf producers, the challenge is equally significant. Even countries with substantial production capacity cannot fully compensate for disrupted shipping if export routes remain vulnerable.

For major Asian importers, the risks are particularly serious because much of the energy normally passing through Hormuz is destined for Asian markets. A prolonged disruption could therefore create significant pressure on import bills, currencies and inflation across energy-dependent economies.

The crisis also highlights the limits of alternative routes. Pipelines and routes outside Hormuz can reduce some of the pressure, but they cannot immediately replace the enormous volumes that normally pass through the waterway.

What’s Next?

The key variable is whether the confrontation between Washington and Tehran moves toward negotiations or further escalation.

A diplomatic breakthrough could rapidly reduce the geopolitical risk premium by restoring confidence in shipping and improving visibility over oil flows. A further escalation, however, could produce additional attacks on tankers, restrictions around the Gulf or renewed pressure on alternative shipping routes.

The oil market will therefore be watching tanker movements as closely as military developments.

If shipping activity becomes more visible and flows recover, some of the current premium could disappear. If the information blackout continues, traders may continue pricing the possibility of a much larger supply disruption.

Analysis

The deeper significance of the Hormuz crisis is that information itself has become a strategic commodity.

Modern energy markets have traditionally depended on the ability to monitor ships, cargoes and supply chains with increasing precision. Satellite imagery, tracking systems and port data created an assumption that physical oil flows could be observed and measured with reasonable accuracy.

That assumption is now being challenged.

The result is a market where perception can influence prices almost as powerfully as physical shortages. If traders believe Hormuz is becoming less reliable, they will pay more for crude today even without definitive evidence of a catastrophic supply loss.

This gives Iran an important form of strategic leverage. The threat of disruption can generate economic consequences even when actual disruption remains limited.

At the same time, Washington faces a difficult calculation. Greater military protection may help keep shipping moving, but prolonged confrontation can also increase the geopolitical risk premium that the United States is trying to contain.

The central question, therefore, is no longer simply how much oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It is how long the global market can function without knowing the answer.

If that uncertainty persists, the oil market could continue carrying a substantial security premium even if physical supplies prove higher than current estimates suggest. The longer the uncertainty lasts, the more deeply it can become embedded in prices, inflation expectations and global economic planning.

With information from Reuters.

SINGAPORE: Six cargo ships transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, Tuesday, compared to nine ships the previous day and an average of about 12 ships over ten days, according to shipping data released today, Wednesday.

These numbers may change, as some ships typically choose not to operate their transponders during the voyage.

Preliminary data from Kpler at 0200 GMT showed that five of the six ships entered the strait while one exited, and the group included a Panamax-sized tanker and a medium-sized tanker.

The US-Israeli war on Iran escalated yesterday, Tuesday, as Houthi militia in Yemen, allied with Tehran, launched attacks on Saudi cities, further involving the kingdom in the conflict.

Simultaneously, US forces targeted several Iranian oil tankers, while Iran struck a US base in Jordan.

Meanwhile, 25 cargo ships transited the Bab El-Mandeb Strait yesterday, Tuesday, with 11 ships entering and 14 exiting the other vital Middle Eastern waterway.

This compares to an average of about 27 ships transiting the Bab El-Mandeb Strait over the past ten days.

Among the ships that transited the Bab El-Mandeb Strait were two Suezmax tankers, eight Aframax tankers, and a Very Large Crude Carrier.

Oil prices are rising to nearly a six-week high amid a wave of strikes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply travels during peacetime.

On Monday, Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, rose to hover around $97 a barrel — up 9 percent over the last five days and 19 percent over the last month. Monday’s market moves are approaching the highest point since July 24th, when prices topped $97.93.

US West Texas Intermediate crude similarly rose to $92.27 a barrel, up 79 cents, also a near six-week high.

In recent days, strikes escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. The US hit three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had struck three tankers and three US-linked vessels in other areas.

“This is a reflection of continued conflict and exchange of fire. The supply deficits globally are persisting, and there is little end to these shortages,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Al Jazeera.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco’s Jizan facilities were struck for the second time in the last month, according to reporting from the Financial Times that cited two people familiar with the matter.

“The fact that a Saudi refinery in Jizan was hit, possibly delaying its return to production, didn’t help,” Ziemba added.

Amid increased strikes, there’s less traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with an average of 10 commodity ships crossing the vital chokepoint each day over the last 10 days, according to Kpler, a data analytics platform.

“Crude went back down to what the pre-war level was in early July. Then it increased again, and then it reduced again, and now it’s increasing again on this weekend’s exchange plus the Aramco attack,” Arif Gasilov, a partner at the Gasilov Group, an energy advisory firm, told Al Jazeera.

“I would say that you might eventually see an inflection point, depending on how long this keeps going on, where a ceasefire doesn’t move the market at all, maybe by just a dollar or two.”

US consumers pinched

US consumers are feeling the impact of heightened oil prices at the petrol pump. The average price for a gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol has jumped 7 cents over the course of a week, reaching $4.15 nationally on Monday, up from $4.08 this time a week ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

That’s up from $4.04 this time a month ago and $2.98 from February 28th, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, marking a 39 percent increase since the war began.

Last week, diesel prices hit all-time highs at $5.85 per gallon.

“US diesel prices have never been this high, and now the countdown starts for the trickle-down to everything consumers buy… record diesel will start funnelling down into the economy,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on the social media platform X.

Prices have continued to climb since, with average prices on Monday topping $5.90 per gallon.

“Markets are pricing in longer disruptions. It continues to be in product markets where the biggest disruptions lie, though, including diesel,” Ziemba added.

Those price gains are weighing on Americans, who have spent an average of $764.59 per household on fuel since the war began. That’s $418.82 more than usual, according to Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs.

Ahead of the US’s September 5-7 Labor Day weekend, the unofficial end of summer and a popular time for US travel, AAA forecasts showed a 20 percent increase in flight costs compared to the same weekend last year.

Ahead of the midterm elections, the economy is emerging as a key issue for US voters — and a potential warning sign for Republicans. Polls show voters souring on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, with his economic approval rating falling to a new low in a recent Financial Times poll. Just 17 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy.

An Economist/YouGov poll similarly found that 39 percent of Americans believe Democrats are doing a better job handling the economy, compared with 32 percent who said Republicans are.

China pressures

Southeast and East Asian markets rely more heavily on imports travelling through the Strait of Hormuz directly than the US, but Beijing has moved to insulate itself from the disruption by turning to domestic sources, including its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

“China has been managing this situation successfully since the beginning of the war. We know that China has many domestic resources, despite rising oil prices,” John Gong, an economics professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told Al Jazeera.

“China has been conserving its oil and gas consumption for quite some time now. China was prepared for these challenges,” Gong said.

He also stressed that China’s close relations with Russia give Beijing another source of supply, with Moscow able to provide nearly half of China’s daily oil needs.

China has also begun tapping into its SPR while reducing its reliance on imports, as Beijing accelerates a broader shift towards alternative energy sources and vehicles that require little or no oil to operate.

“We have national strategies focused on transitioning to clean energies like solar and green power,” Gong said. “When we look at the vehicles purchased in China, more than 50 percent of cars sold on the Chinese market are electric.”

WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance rejected the use of the word “war” to describe the U.S. fighting with Iran as he steered clear of predicting that the six-month-old conflict would be over by November’s midterm elections, in which Republicans are trying to hang on to their narrow majorities in Congress.

“I wouldn’t call it a war,” Vance said Thursday after being asked during a White House press briefing about whether the fighting could end before voters cast their ballots in the Nov. 3 congressional elections. “Right now, there is no active shooting.”

Vance’s assertion came even as Iran fired at U.S. Gulf ally Kuwait on Thursday as it continued to retaliate for rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran earlier in the week.

The vice president said the U.S. had a “responsibility” to carry out this week’s strikes because Iran continued to target commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Vance’s attempt to minimize the intensity of the fighting illuminates the difficult task at hand for Trump and his administration as he tries to persuade American voters to keep Republicans in control of Congress, even as the unpopular conflict — one the White House said at its outset would last a matter of weeks — has driven up gas prices and left consumers grappling with higher inflation.

Vance said he didn’t want to set “artificial timelines.”

“But when you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” Vance said. “I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians.”

The administration in July faced scrutiny after it reclassified four fallen soldiers as well as dozens of wounded troops in its Defense Casualty Analysis System, which Pentagon officials have repeatedly pointed to as the definitive source on the numbers of dead and wounded from the conflict. Those killed or wounded in fighting after a brief ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran fell apart were classified in a new category called “Overseas Operations” after initially being tallied in the totals from the war.

White House insists more oil is getting out of Gulf, but prices remain high

Brent crude prices hovered above $95 per barrel Thursday. The international benchmark was around $72 per barrel the day before the conflict began.

Still, Trump and his aides have sought to push that the U.S. Navy is in control of the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s traded oil passed before the war. They insist a near prewar level of Gulf oil is now making its way out of the critical waterway.

Vance at Thursday’s press briefing said the U.S. escorted about 15 million barrels of oil on Wednesday. This was after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Wednesday that 17 million barrels were carried through the strait on Monday with assistance from the U.S. Navy. About 20 million barrels of Gulf oil flowed through the strait prior to the start of the war.

But ship traffic through the strait remains well below prewar levels, according to independent firms that track marine traffic.

There were 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, according to shipping data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence, compared with 130 or more per day before the war.

Over the past 28 days, 5 million barrels a day have exited the strait on average, according to TankerTrackers.com. Other recent estimates have varied from 2 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day.

Trump has tried to soothe volatile markets

Over the course of the war, Trump has repeatedly reported progress in negotiations or called off threats of military action at the last moment when global markets have become jittery. And markets have reacted swiftly to his public signals of peace or hints of progress.

“The administration is still jawboning oil markets,” said Rosemary Kelanic, Middle East director at Defense Priorities, of the administration’s claims of dramatically increased flows of oil. “And they appear to be doing it again to keep prices from going too high, so that they can extend the timeline before there’s a worse price spike.”

With Iran’s refusal to back down in the face of the U.S. military campaign, Trump has settled on a dual-prong approach that combines economic pressure with threats of an escalation in force, if necessary.

Trump has consistently emphasized that the campaign launched by the U.S. and Israel has been devastating for Iran’s navy and air force. Iranian officials have said the country has suffered $270 billion in direct and indirect damage. Israeli military strikes in the first weeks of the war wiped out much of the theocratic government’s leadership structure, including its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Still, Iran has found leverage through its own strikes on the strait and Gulf allies of the United States. But the administration has sought to make the case that the waterway will become less important by the day, even as it asserts that more oil is getting through.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox Business interview this week that the Strait of Hormuz will become a “worthless piece of water” within two years as new land pipelines planned for the region bypass the energy chokepoint. Trump himself took to social media on Thursday to highlight a news report about Syria’s effort to transform the port of Baniyas on the Mediterranean coast into a westward route to international markets for Gulf exporters.

Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have recently discussed a phased approach to jointly managing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump settles into holding pattern before midterms, analysts say

The administration maintains it’s making progress economically choking off Iranian hard-liners, including the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. At the moment, it would be a leap for Trump to agree to any plan that puts Iran in position to claim control of the strait, analysts say.

“I find it hard to believe the president would agree to anything that hands back any modicum of IRGC control over the strait that has been wrested away,” said Richard Goldberg, who served as a senior adviser on Iran policy in Trump’s first administration.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Iran does not appear ready to “let Trump out of the box” despite the massive pain being inflicted on its economy.

At the same time, Miller said, Trump seems to have settled into a holding pattern ahead of the midterms — one in which he avoids both a return to the full-throttle bombardment of Iran and making any accommodations to Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz.

“The White House doesn’t want a massive war, and they don’t want to be seen as offering massive concessions,” Miller said. “The tack they are taking avoids both of those things.”

Madhani writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Jonathan J. Cooper and Josh Boak in Washington and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — Confronted by an intransigent Iranian government that has refused to back down in the face of a massive military campaign, President Trump appears to have settled on a dual-prong approach that combines economic pressure with the potential of a devastating escalation in force.

Having launched “Operation Economic Outcast” just last week to try to isolate Iran from its remaining global trade partners, the Trump administration also resumed strikes in recent days, prompting Iranian retaliation that has renewed concerns of an all-out regional war.

However, the combination of already intense sanctions on Iran and an off-and-on bombing campaign since the war began more than six months ago has not bowed the Iranian leadership and has left the administration struggling to find a way to wind down the conflict. Tehran has dug in its heels — to Trump’s frustration — as energy prices rise, the global economy roils and poll numbers on the administration’s handling of the war dip ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections.

Trump said Wednesday that he didn’t think the conflict would last “much longer,” but he again shrugged off suggestions that its unpopularity and high gasoline prices resulting from Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz would affect the elections for Republicans.

“It doesn’t matter. And I’m not affected by the election,” he told reporters. “I’m not running. But my party is running, and I’m going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

A regional diplomat briefed on the matter described the current impasse between Tehran and Washington as reflective of both countries’ domestic priorities: the midterm elections for Trump and Republicans and the internal crises within Iran.

Domestic issues are critical reasons why neither side is willing to blink first, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

The diplomat said negotiations, including those between Iran and Oman or even Iran and the U.S., will not go anywhere without addressing the initial catalyst of war: Israel. And the diplomat was skeptical of the Trump administration’s new sanctions plan, saying the threats require more explanation than what the U.S. has provided so far.

The Trump administration’s economic isolation of Iran is off to a slow start

The administration’s new push for Iran’s economic isolation was announced with great fanfare last week and a dire warning for all remaining countries to cut off financial and trade ties with Iran or face U.S. retaliation — but the campaign so far has fallen flat.

Just one branch of an Egyptian bank in the United Arab Emirates has been targeted so far. For actual sanctions to bite, experts agree that they must apply to Iran’s main trading partners: mainly China but also India and Russia. But Trump is loath to target China especially as he is preparing to host President Xi Jinping later this month.

Trump also insists that the U.S. has control over the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil transited before the war began. The strategic waterway has been a key pressure point for Iran, and reopening it fully has become one of the prime goals for the U.S. administration.

Ship traffic through the strait is well below pre-war levels due to the risk of attack if vessels don’t comply with an Iranian vetting regime near its coastline, which is in sharp contrast to the unhindered navigation before the war. There were 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, according to shipping data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence, compared with 130 or more per day before the war.

“As President Trump said, the strait is open and all mines have been cleared,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Thursday. “The naval blockade remains in full force and effect, and Operation Economic Outcast is underway to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the regime.”

The White House has repeatedly touted the economic impact that the sanctions have had on Iran, citing its rampant inflation and the massive loss in the value of its currency. U.S. officials have described Iran’s financial system as “one big house of cards.”

Going forward, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the price” Iran will pay will be primarily economic, “but we reserve the right … to take military action when necessary — not just to protect ourselves but to prevent them from being able to threaten others as well.”

“They’re going to continue to feel the squeeze,” he told Fox News host Brian Kilmeade in an interview that aired Wednesday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week likened Iran to a snake that has been decapitated but whose body is still writhing.

“We are burying the head of the Iranian snake,” he said Tuesday. “The snake doesn’t know it’s dead yet, but it will stop wiggling when the sun goes down. And so the Iranian regime — they are in demise, and they will figure it out.”

Combining military force and sanctions on Iran ‘is the only option,’ one analyst says

Complicating things for the U.S., Iran’s leadership has shown signs of divisions between moderates more open to a diplomatic solution and hardliners who want to press ahead with a more confrontational approach.

President Masoud Pezeshkian is one of the most prominent voices still calling for a negotiated solution. But the hardliners appear to have gained the upper hand, and Iran shows no sign of backing down. Tehran continues to lash out at U.S. interests and allies around the region in response to military strikes.

“This kind of a hybrid approach — the combination of military force, blockade and economic pressure — that is the only option that seems to be available to the United States at this moment,” said Hamidreza Azizi, consulting senior Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group.

Still, he said, “it’s been for a long time, but now maybe more than ever, a battle of endurance between the two sides.”

Amr Hamzawy, director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed to two main reasons for the deteriorating situation.

“One, none of the two parties is satisfied with the outcome — meaning that the current situation does not serve U.S. interests well, and it does not serve Iranian interests well,” Hamzawy said.

The other reason is how leaders from both sides are perceived at home.

“The Trump administration is afraid of being portrayed in the U.S. as an administration that failed to end a military campaign successfully, and that’s going to impact the midterm elections,” he said. “And the Iranians, especially the Revolutionary Guard, are quite afraid of appearing as if they are submitting to U.S. sanctions with no actions on their side, which might hurt them domestically.”

Lee, Magdy and Amiri write for the Associated Press. Magdy reported from Cairo. AP writers Will Weissert in Washington and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.

Sept. 1 (UPI) — Two oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles on the Strait of Hormuz while the renewed fighting between Iran and the United States sends oil prices on the rise again.

One Saudi Arabian and one South Korean oil tanker were hit by projectiles within minutes of each other on Monday night, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported. The organization said no casualties or environmental impact have been reported.

The strikes followed President Donald Trump warning of further escalation in the war with Iran.

The United States launched strikes on Iranian troops in Larak Island on Sunday, causing Iran to retaliate with strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan. Trump said in a TV interview on Monday that he planned to respond by hitting Iran “hard.”

Dr. Majid Al-Ansari, spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, said on Tuesday that the nation will re-up its efforts to bring the United States and Iran back to the table to discuss a peace agreement.

“This escalation will not benefit anyone,” Al-Ansari said. “We are all affected by this escalation. Therefore we urge the parties, first, to exercise wisdom and return to the negotiating track, and we continue and intensify our efforts with our mediation partners to ensure a return to this track.”

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran would be open to returning to peace talks if the United States moves in that direction.

Oil prices increased by 2% early Tuesday on the back of escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, was up 2% to $92 per barrel while West Texas intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was trading for $88 per barrel.

WASHINGTON — For the last six months, President Trump has attempted to control the narrative of the Iran war.

As days, weeks and months passed, he repeatedly said that an agreement to end the conflict was close at hand and that Iran was already defeated. Between fraught negotiations, Trump has gone from conciliatory to antagonistic, characterizing Iran’s new leadership as more “rational” than their predecessors, only to later call them “sick individuals.”

There have even been times the commander in chief contradicted himself and his own Cabinet in the same week — and sometimes, the same day.

Friday marks the sixth month of the war launched by the U.S. and Israel. Among U.S. forces, there have been at least 18 killed and 758 wounded, according to Pentagon data. The Human Rights Activists News Agency puts the death toll in Iran at 3,636. In Lebanon, officials, say more than 4,300 have died. The Israeli military reported 72 deaths, and at least 50 civilians have died, according to news reports.

Here is a recap of notable comments Trump made in public remarks and on social media during half a year of war:

What he said: “The United States military has undertaken a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.”

In announcing the start of Operation Epic Fury from the White House, Trump called Iran the world’s No. 1 state sponsor of terror and recalled actions by Iran or its proxies, such as the hostage crisis of 1979 and the bombing of a Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983 that left 241 dead.

The goals of the operation, Trump said, were to destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its naval capabilities and missile industry and to ensure that Iranian proxies — including Hezbollah and Hamas — were thwarted. He implored Iranian citizens to rise up against the government.

Women carry the casket of a teacher from Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School toward the cemetery in Minab, Iran, on March 30. The teacher was among those killed in a missile strike on Feb. 28, the first day of the war on Iran.

(Zohreh Saberi / For The Times)

What happened: That morning the U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as other key military and government figures. According to Iran’s Red Crescent, 24 of Iran’s 32 provinces were hit in the first day of bombings, with more than 200 deaths and 700 injuries reported. Iranian officials said that at least 120 students and 26 teachers died in a missile strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab.

Iran retaliated by launching missiles at Israel and U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also warned ships to not travel through the Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for 20% of the world’s oil and energy supplies.

What he said: “We grieve for the true American patriots who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our nation, even as we continue the righteous mission for which they gave their lives. Sadly, there will likely be more.”

Trump announced that at least three service members were killed in an Iranian attack, the first U.S. casualties in the war.

In an interview with the New York Times, Trump was asked how long the U.S. and Israel could sustain its offensive in Iran. “It won’t be difficult,” he replied. “We have tremendous amounts of ammunition. You know, we have ammunition stored all over the world in different countries.”

What happened: An Iranian one-way drone attack was launched against the industrial Port Shuaiba in Kuwait, where American soldiers set up an operations center after abandoning the larger Camp Arifjan military installation.

What he said: “We projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.”

At a Medal of Honor ceremony at the White House, Trump assessed the progress of the attacks on Iran, saying the U.S. was “already substantially ahead of our time projections.”

Retired Command Sgt. Maj. Terry P. Richardson is presented the Medal of Honor by President Trump on March 2, the same day Trump said progress in the war on Iran was exceeding projections. ..

(Win McNamee / Getty Images)

What happened: The conflict expanded, with Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon launching drones against Israel.

Israel’s counter-strike would ultimately decapitate Hezbollah leadership, but strikes between the two forces would continue through the first week of war.

U.S. Central Command increased the number of U.S. troop deaths in the Kuwait strike to six from three.

What he said: “The war itself is going unbelievably. It’s as good as it can be.”

He said that the U.S. “wiped out” the Iranian navy, air force, drone manufacturing capabilities and “every form of leadership you can have,” adding that he was interested in being a part of the selection of Iran’s new leader.

He also said that he believed the strike on the Minab school was a misdirected missile launched by Iran. He offered no evidence.

The family of 8-year-old Reza Habashian, a second-grader killed in the strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School, observes the Persian New Year at his graveside in Minab, Iran, on March 20.

(Zohreh Saberi / For The Times)

What happened: Iranian drone and missile strikes on gulf neighbors continued.

The day after Trump said Iranians had no existing leadership prospects, Mojtaba Khamenei, one of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s sons, would become the new supreme leader.

U.S. officials familiar with the preliminary findings of an investigation into the Minab school strikes leaked information to the New York Times that indicated the U.S. had bombed the school as a result of a “targeting mistake.”

What he said: “Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today. They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!”

In a Fox News radio interview with Brian Kilmeade, Trump said that an uprising by Iranian civilians appeared likely. “It’ll happen, but it probably will be, maybe not immediately,” he said.

What happened: Iran and Hezbollah continued joint attacks against Israel, while Israel continued its own large-scale strikes on Beirut and Tehran.

On March 13, a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker — a refueling and airlift plane — crashed over Western Iraq without being attacked, resulting in the death of six more U.S. service members, Central Command announced. The U.S. death toll increased to 13.

What he said: “I think we won. All they’re doing is clogging up the Strait [of Hormuz], but from a military standpoint, they’re finished.”

Lightning streaks across the sky over an oil tanker on March 21 at Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman.

(Elke Scholiers / Getty Images)

That same afternoon, in a post on his social media website, Trump said the U.S. was considering “winding down” military efforts in Iran.

What happened: The Pentagon said in a statement that it would send three warships and roughly 2,500 Marines to the Middle East for “routine training.”

What he said: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”

Trump also postponed military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure after threatening to do so if Iran did not open access to the Strait of Hormuz.

What happened: Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, responded to Trump’s claims in a post on X. “No negotiations have been held with the U.S.,” Qalibaf wrote, adding that he believed the U.S. was using the prospect of an accord to ease strain on financial and oil markets.

What he said: “The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.”

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, addressing journalists in Tehran on March 30, said a truce plan proposed by the United States contained “very excessive, unrealistic and unreasonable” demands.

(Shadati / Xinhua / Getty Images)

While saying in a social media post that progress had been made, Trump leveled additional threats if a pact wasn’t reached shortly. “We will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island,” he wrote.

What happened: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei once again rejected that direct talks with the U.S. had taken place, describing the proposed terms as “unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive.”

What he said: “We’re gonna hit them hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re gonna bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”

In an address to the nation, Trump also denied that a change of governments was ever a goal in attacking Iran.

What happened: Thousands more U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East amid continuous back-and-forth strikes. Iran hit an oil tanker off Qatar’s coast and fired missiles and drones at Jordan, which were intercepted. Israel carried out strikes on a Beirut neighborhood.

What he said: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

Vice President JD Vance holds a cellphone up to a microphone while on a call with President Trump at an event on April 7..

(Jonathan Ernst / Pool Photo)

What happened: Trump’s post about a whole civilization dying went live around 5 a.m., but later in the day the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week truce. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement that the truce did not “signify the termination of the war.”

What he said: “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”

What happened: U.S. Central Command announced that the blockade of Iranian ports began at 10 a.m. Eastern. Central Command said the blockade would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations” entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas.

People pass in front of a pro-government political mural in Tehran on April 12.

(Majid Saeedi / Getty Images)

What he said: “I think it’s close to over, yeah. I view it as very close to being over.”

Trump’s comment to Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo on “Mornings with Maria” came two days after he announced the blockade of Iranian ports.

What happened: Though the ceasefire continued to hold, Iran officials had not relented on their right to enrich uranium, to maintain conventional defensive capabilities and to police traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

What he said: “I didn’t guarantee no war. Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?”

In an interview with Kristen Welker of NBC on the 100th day of the conflict, Trump claimed that he had never promised during his campaign that he would not engage in new wars in the Middle East.

President Trump sits for an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker.

(Adam Bettcher / NBC / Getty Images)

What happened: On multiple occasions during his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump suggested that he wouldn’t start new “endless wars.”

In a social media post in late June 2024, he framed the election as a choice between “peace and prosperity or war and no war.”

What he said: “It’s a memorandum of understanding, and if I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”

Trump spoke the same day he signed a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding with Iran to cease hostilities for 60 days. Trump put his signature to the memorandum while attending a dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron in Versailles.

French First Lady Brigitte Macron, President Emmanuel Macron and President Trump meet at the Palace of Versailles in France on June 17.

(Mustafa Yalcin / Anadolu / Getty Images)

What happened: The document set out a series of conditions, including the release billions of dollars in Iranian assets that were frozen and restricted by the United States “upon the implementation” of the memorandum.

Some issues, such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program, were set aside for negotiations down the road.

The White Housed pushed back on bipartisan criticism of the deal, arguing its concessions were contingent on Iran’s conduct.

What he said: “There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”

President Trump boards Air Force One on Aug. 9 at Morristown Airport in Morristown, N.J.

(Eric Lee / Getty Images)

What happened: Trump’s social media post came as Iran and the U.S. continued to carry out strikes in the Middle East despite the memorandum. CENTCOM announced that military surveillance, air defense sites and drone storage facilities were struck after an Iranian attack on a container ship, the Ever Lovely.

What he said: “Iran has been very, very badly damaged. They’ve lost everything, almost, militarily. … They’ve got very little left; They’ve got some missiles; They’ve got some drones; They’ve got some manufacturing ability, not much; We control the Strait.”

People gather July 19 on a bridge rendered unusable in a U.S. airstrike in Iran’s Hormozgan province. Iranian authorities said the United States carried out attacks on 95 locations in Iran over the previous 10 days.

(Amir Hossein Khorgooei / Anadolu / Getty Images)

What happened: According to a CENTCOM press release, the U.S. completed 13 nights of consecutive strikes against Iran by July 23, adding to an earlier announcement that Iran had attacked more than 30 commercial vehicles in the previous three months of conflict.

What he said: “I think it’s going to end really soon.”

Trump made the comment in the Oval Office while back-and-forth strikes — primarily over control of the Strait of Hormuz — continued.

What happened: According to a report by NPR, Iran’s parliament aimed to block U.S. and Israeli access to the Strait of Hormuz, despite Trump’s assertion that the waterway was under his control.

What he said: “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

Trump’s comments reflected how U.S. officials sought to readjust wartime strategy after multiple rounds of failed negotiations. Trump told Axios that he would not proceed with expanded strikes against Iran, as the U.S. was “low-keying” its approach to the conflict.

What happened: As the war approached its six-month mark, both sides mostly ceased military attacks, but shifted to economic pressure.

“ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences,” Trump wrote in an Aug. 19 post, threatening “ECONOMIC D-DAY” if Iran did not comply with his demands.

According to Reuters, Qalibaf, the Iranian parliament speaker, said that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until military threats ceased and sanctions on Iran were lifted.

What he said: “IRAN IS COMPLETELY COLLAPSING!!!”

What happened: In a post on X three days before Trump’s “completely collapsing” post, the hard-line leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had noted economic sanctions placed on Iran by previous presidents, including Obama and Biden, and said they had all failed.

“We have seen this movie before,” he wrote. “Same bull. Different bullies.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials attend an event at the mausoleum of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Tehran on Aug. 23.

(Anadolu / Getty Images)

Aug. 28 (UPI) — The U.S. military said it has clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines, removing a major obstacle to President Donald Trump‘s goal of regaining freedom of navigation through the vital energy route, though Iran refutes the claim.

The strait has become a focal point in the U.S. war against Iran, which has been restricting maritime traffic at the chokepoint via military drones, missiles and mines since the conflict began.

Trump has repeatedly stated for months that the strait is open, despite the number of ships making it through each day dwindling from about 140 vessels to only a handful.

U.S. Central Command Commander Adm. Brad Cooper announced in a video posted online that the U.S. military has “achieved a major milestone” in the Strait of Hormuz.

“We have successfully cleared sea mines in the strait’s international shipping lanes that were laid months ago by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Internationally recognized transit routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines, thanks to the incredible work of the U.S. military,” he said.

Cooper made the announcement a day after Trump on Tuesday said on his Truth Social platform that he had been informed that the mines had been cleared by the U.S. Navy.

“Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” he said.

“Through Space Force, we are watching every square inch of the Strait,” he added. “There is Zero Tolerance policy on mine placement in full force and effect.”

The claim could not be independently verified.

However, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, refuted Trump’s comments, saying only Iran knows where the mines are, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported.

“The Strait of Hormuz is closed both because of the presence of mines and because of our military actions. If America is making this claim, why is not a single vessel passing through?” he said, seemingly meaning none have transited without Iran’s permission.

“These remarks are propaganda intended to create calm in global energy markets. No one has accepted these claims.”

Gharibabadi was speaking about framework for the strait being by Iran and Oman.

A provision of the proposed agreement concerns the implementation of a joint project to clear the strait of mines.

Iran has restricted transit of the strait since the war began Feb. 28, when it was attacked by the United States and Israel. While the United States launched the war with the goal of preventing Tehran from securing a nuclear weapon and encouraging regime change, the Trump administration has now focused on regaining freedom of navigation through the strait. Iran is fighting to maintain its ability to oversee ships transiting the chokepoint.

US President Donald Trump has said that the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the Strait of Hormuz – the vital waterway which Iran has largely closed since the beginning of the war in the Middle East.

“Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

There is no comment from Iran.

Closure of the strait has caused wild fluctuations in the price of oil on world markets. Trump has often said the US has control of the area – but Iran has fired against vessels it says have sought to cross without its permission.

Some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the war, which began on 28 February with US and Israeli air strikes against Iran.

In addition to closing the strait, Iran retaliated against Israel and against US bases in the region as well as US Arab allies in the Gulf.

A ceasefire aimed at facilitating talks to end the war has collapsed and there has been intermittent exchange of fire between the US and Iran.

However, this week the US announced a raft of economic sanctions against Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that any nation financially partnering with Iran would be isolated.

Iran and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in June – a 14-point document which set a 60-day deadline to reach a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, before substantial negotiations on resolving the nuclear issue – allegations that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, which Tehran has consistently denied.

However, that deadline has now expired and talks have collapsed leading to the new US sanctions that Trump believes will lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime.

Iran has been under sanctions for most of the time since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979 and Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said Tehran was “fully prepared” for the wider sanctions, which he added would lead to “another defeat” for the US.

Its economy, however, has suffered as a result of the war – and a blockade of Iranian ports that the US has been maintaining for weeks not to allow trade to continue.

On Tuesday, China – the biggest buyer of Iranian oil – said it was firmly opposed to what it called the US’s “illegal unilateral sanctions” and would take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its rights.

The US announcement comes ahead of planned talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month.

Washington is likely to be wary of potential retaliation from Beijing, which processes the majority of the world’s rare earths and other critical minerals, crucial in the manufacture of many high-tech products.

Beijing has already tightened export controls on rare earths as part of previous trade negotiations with the US.

Aug. 24 (UPI) — An unidentified projectile struck an oil tanker off the coast of Oman early Tuesday, a British sponsored maritime security organization said, the latest attack in the U.S.-Iran war over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The UKMTO center said in a statement that it received a report of the strike at about 12:25 a.m. local time. It said the vessel was struck roughly 9 nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishan, Oman.

The tanker, which was not identified, sustained damage to its engine room, disabling the vessel.

“Crew reported safe,” the UKMTO center said. “Environmental impact is unknown at the time of the report.”

The UKMTO did not identify who launched the projectile nor has anyone yet taken responsibility. However, the strike comes as Iran has been enforcing a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran started the ongoing war in late February.

The Trump administration has for months employed military operations combined with economic measures to secure a diplomatic end to the conflict, its focus has since shifted to restoring freedom of navigation to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy shipping route. Meanwhile, Iran continues to use the strait as a bargaining chip in negotiations and has said it is seeking to maintain sovereignty over vessels that pass through it.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that the United States has control of the Strait of Hormuz and that vessels are transiting it. Over the weekend, Trump posted an image of the strait, calling it a “new U.S. territory” on his Truth Social media platform.

However, despite Trump’s claims, the number of vessels trainsiting the strait has drop from about 140 to a handful a day, according to a maritime tracker by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Over the weekend, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an Iranian government entity formed to oversee the Strait of Hormuz, warned that vessels violating its protocols face with punitive measures, such as restrictions on future passages, fines, detention or confiscations.

On Monday, the Trump administration unveiled even more stringent sanctions targeting Iran, tightening its financial vises on Tehran.

U.S. Central Command also said a blockade of Iran’s ports, enforced since July 14 in response to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has redirected 71 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two others.

There is a report of a new ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the difficulty of ending hostilities with Iran. The strike came hours after the Trump administration on Monday unleashed the threat of harsh new sanctions to further isolate the Islamic Republic. Though details were sparse, and no deadlines were issued, the goal was to compel the Iranians to return to negotiations by inducing additional economic pain instead of through bombardment. Originally touting the announcement as an “economic D-Day” against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s lack of firm timelines presented Monday doesn’t seem to match that initial rhetoric.

Monday evening, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center (UKMTO) said it “received a report of an incident 9NM northeast of Ash Shishah, Oman.”

“The Master of an oil tanker reports the vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile causing damage to the engine room and disabling the vessel,” UKMTO reported on X. “Crew are reported safe. Environmental impact is unknown at time of report. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO. Authorities are investigating.”

UKMTO didn’t assign blame, but it’s obviously extremely likely the attack was carried out by Iran.

Hours before Bessent’s sanctions announcement, the Houthi rebels of Yemen also attacked another Saudi ship in the northern Red Sea. These strikes are a stark reminder that the war launched on Iran by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28 is still sending kinetic shockwaves around the region and roiling the global economy.

At a press conference in Washington, Bessent formally announced the broad outlines of a new list of measures to cut Iran off from global trade. The move comes as the Iranian economy, which was reeling even before the war broke out, continues to suffer after months of war and an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of its ports.

“We are level-setting with every country to tell them our expectations. We know who they are. They know who they are,” Bessent told reporters. “So when the hammer of U.S. Treasury actions falls upon them, they will have no one to blame but themselves.”

Dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast,” the plan calls for every country to “be given a defined timeline to shut down its Iran-related business activity,” Axios noted. “If it fails to do so, the U.S. will impose secondary sanctions.”

As part of this effort, the Treasury Department “issued determinations against five critical sectors––digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping––that the Iranian regime uses to try to prop up its failing economy,” it explained. In addition, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) “sanctioned nearly 60 entities, individuals, and vessels in multiple jurisdictions that enable the Iranian regime’s recklessness, including illicit nuclear and missile technology procurement, cyber operations, and oil‑revenue generation networks.”

OFAC also “suspended several general licenses that previously authorized certain remittance payments to Iran and Iranian access to the U.S. cultural and academic system,” Treasury noted. “OFAC issued additional guidance on the sanctions risks of bowing to Iranian demands related to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Asked by a reporter what actions the U.S. might take against China, Bessent hinted that Beijing is not exempt. China has been a major importer of Iranian oil and its banks have helped support Tehran’s economy.

“We want to make clear here today that no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions,” Bessent responded. “That if they facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted.”

BIG: Bessent on China and Iran:

We want to make clear here today that no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.

That if they facilitate transactions and are part of the ecosystem that turns Iranian oil into money, into repression, they will be targeted. pic.twitter.com/hVuFLlgaZa

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 24, 2026

Bessent did not offer any further specifics. He was equally vague about any timelines for this effort.

“We are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior,” Bessent told reporters. “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”

For their part, the Iranians dismissed Bessent’s plan and promised their own harsh response to the new sanctions.

“Americans know that no one buys their bombast; the United States is not in an economic position to further restrict its relations with other countries,” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, stated on X. “Iran’s trading partners, both in the media and through messages sent to us, have made it clear that they don’t take these statements into account anywhere.”

آمریکایی‌ها می‌دانند که کسی گُنده‌لافی‌های آنها را باور نمی‌کند؛ آمریکا از لحاظ اقتصادی در شرایطی نیست که بخواهد روابط خود با دیگر کشورها را محدودتر از این کند.
شرکای تجاری ایران، هم در رسانه‌ها و هم با ارسال پیام‌ به ما اعلام کرده‌اند که این اظهارات را به هیچ جا حساب نمی‌کنند.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) August 24, 2026

“Any escalation of this situation will undoubtedly bring about consequences,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said. “Our hands are not tied.”

Baghaei did not offer specifics, but Iran still possesses missiles and drones that it can use to strike U.S. and allied interests in the region. In addition, Tehran still maintains a large degree of control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Even the threat of additional attacks could affect the flow of oil through the strategic chokepoint.

In addition, on Saturday, Mohsen Rezaei, the head of Iran’s national security council, threatened to attack U.S. businesses, The Telegraph reported. He also warned allies of the U.S. that they would be considered enemies, and their interests harmed if they joined Trump’s economic warfare. Cyberattacks on U.S. water systems that officials suspect may be linked to Iran-backed hackers have been reported in at least a dozen states, CBS News reported earlier this month. Iranian-linked hackers are also suspected of forcing a small British power generator offline for four days last month. Aside from that, there are still many U.S. business interests in the Middle East, and especially energy firms, with major facilities right across the Persian Gulf.

While the U.S. and Iran trade threats, the Houthis carried out a fresh strike on Saudi shipping as we noted earlier in this piece.

The Iranian-backed group claimed it hit the oil tanker Amzan off the coast of Yanbu. That’s the kingdom’s key port on the northern Red Sea, about 600 miles north of Houthi territory.

🔺Ansarallah says it struck the Saudi oil tanker Amzan with a ballistic missile off Yanbu in the northern Red Sea, declaring the attack part of its maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and its “blockade for blockade” campaign.

Military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the missile hit… pic.twitter.com/PS6vna9XA2

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) August 24, 2026

Both the UKMTO and the Ambrey maritime security company confirmed the attack, which took place about 64 nm west of Yanbu, Ambrey noted.

After the vessel was hit, “the Egyptian Navy was reported to have responded and was transiting to the area of interest to conduct a rescue operation,” Ambrey stated. “At the time of the attack, the vessel was not transmitting its AIS signal. Its previous AIS transmission was recorded at 02:33 UTC on 8 August.”

The ship attack was the latest Houthi strike against the Saudis. The Yemen-based group had already struck Saudi ships in the southern part of that body of water and refineries along the northern portion after imposing a blockade on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait (BAM), leading several oil tankers in the Red Sea to avoid that route in favor of the Suez Canal. The expansion of the Houthi campaign against Saudi shipping began earlier this month with an attack off the port of Yanbu on the NCC Wafa, a Saudi oil tanker.

Though both the Strait of Hormuz and the BAM remain under pressure, ship traffic ticked upwards in both chokepoints last week, according to the Kpler global trade intelligence firm. Those numbers alone, however, don’t paint the full picture, Kpler cautioned.

“Traffic edged higher through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, but headline volumes obscure contrasting risk signals,” Kpler cautioned on X. “Hormuz crossings rose 2.5% to 121, while laden transits fell 27% and sanctioned crossings increased from 9 to 16. Use of Iran’s unilateral routing scheme also climbed to 46.3% of crossings.”

“Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose 3.1% to 269 crossings,” the firm added. “Dark transits declined, but sanctioned and shadow fleet crossings remained broadly flat at 74 combined. The data suggest commercial substance is weakening at Hormuz even as overall traffic holds up, while Bab el-Mandeb remains resilient despite an active threat environment.”

Hormuz traffic masks rising risk

Traffic edged higher through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb last week, but headline volumes obscure contrasting risk signals.
Hormuz crossings rose 2.5% to 121, while laden transits fell 27% and sanctioned crossings increased from 9 to… pic.twitter.com/iHKsCigEJL

— Kpler (@Kpler) August 24, 2026

While the U.S. is threatening further moves to hurt the Iranian economy, doing so has inherent risks. For decades, Iran has weathered sanctions and isolation and yet the regime has persevered. It withstood mass protests against it earlier this year with bloody crackdowns that played a big role in moving U.S. President Donald Trump to take military action.

Iran continues to wield the cudgel of threatening the U.S. by resuming attacks on its assets in the region as well as against allies. In July, Tehran took rare initiative with a surprise attack on U.S. forces in Jordan, a contrast to its previous pattern of responding to strikes.

For the U.S., continued conflict risks further expenditure of its stocks of high-end offensive and defensive weapons and strain on its troops and equipment. It would also add new economic pressure. To help mitigate gasoline prices that shot up during the war, the Trump administration began releasing a large amount of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. That move set off a cascade of downstream effects.

“Stocks of crude ​oil in the ‌U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) ​fell ​by about 3.7 million ⁠barrels ​to 289.7 million ​barrels last week, the lowest ​level since ​November 1982,” Reuters reported, citing data from the Department of Energy. “The ​drawdowns ​are ⁠part of a ​U.S. agreement ​to ⁠release 172 million barrels ⁠from ​the ​facility.”

Barchart, the global market data and technology firm, offered a stark assessment of the state of the SPR.

“The U.S. has just 41 days of crude oil inventory left, the lowest level in half a century,” Barchart noted on X.

While that doesn’t mean gas pumps in the U.S. are about to shut down, the alarm bells are ringing.

Earlier this month, the president said his new strategy was to be “low-keying it” in Iran, a suggestion wants to avoid further major military action. However, in addition to global and domestic economic pressure, there are other factors weighing on Trump as he decides what to do next with regard to Iran.

The war is unpopular and the midterm elections are fast approaching. The White House and Republican leadership remain keenly aware that the conflict dragging on until November won’t help the party’s bid to hold onto control of both the Senate and the House.

We will have to see if the Treasury’s plan is actually enacted and what Iran’s response will be. As it sits now, the administration is clearly hoping the threat of such economic isolation will press them to the negotiating table, but Iran has shown no signs yet that it will.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com 

Aug. 22 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Friday said he now considers the Strait of Hormuz to be “an American territory.”

“We don’t even know if we won, because I view the Strait of Hormuz as an American territory right now,” he told a crowd of supporters during a campaign event in South Carolina.

Trump first floated the idea of claiming the waterway last week, saying he would wait until the conclusion of the war in Iran to declare the strait a territory of the United States.

Then on Tuesday he posted an image on Truth Social showing the strait with the label “New U.S. Territory.”

He took his threats further on Friday during a campaign rally for Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., as she attempts to fill her late brother Lindsey Graham‘s Senate seat.

“It’s an American territory,” he said.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, had previously called the president’s remarks “fanciful delusions.”

“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian,” he said.

Trump this week said he would launch “economic warfare” against Iran as efforts to end the war continue to fail.

On Saturday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the economic operation was “bound to fail.”

“We have seen this movie before,” Araghchi wrote in a statement on X. “Same bull. Different bullies.”

As part of his economic warfare threat, Trump said institutions or governments providing any support to Iran would face “tremendous” consequences.

Esmaeil Baqaei, a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Trump’s move “is an assertion of extraterritorial sovereignty over every independent member state of the United Nations.”

“The end result would be the complete erosion of sovereignty as the foundational basis of the UN-based inter-State system, and a recipe for an abysmal return to full-scale classic colonialism,” he added in a statement on X.

Aug. 18 (UPI) — A ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under attack on Tuesday, sustaining at least one casualty, amid claims by Tehran’s top negotiator that the critically important sea route would remain closed pending the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.

The British Royal Navy’s U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center said in an alert that the security officer of the ship’s owner had reported that the engine room of the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing outbound through Strait of Hormuz [from the Persian Gulf].

“The impact caused damage to the engine room and resulted in a crew casualty. The remaining crew are currently being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard. At present, no environmental impact has been reported,” said UKMTO which did not identify the ship.

It was not immediately clear if the affected crew member was injured or killed, or what type of weapon was used in the attack.

The incident coincided with comments by Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, vowing not to permit shipping to pass through the strait until the United States complied with terms set out in a cease-fire deal the two sides signed in June, including the lifting of sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil abroad.

“I want to state clearly that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the American commitments stipulated in the memorandum of understanding… are implemented,” Ghalibaf said in an address carried on Iranian state television.

Sailings through the strait have remained drastically curtailed, as they have been since the war started on Feb. 28, despite the 14-point framework calling for it to be reopened to commercial vessels for the duration of the 60-day deal, which expired Monday.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency added the ending of all military threats and operations by the United States to Ghalibaf’s list of demands.

The U.S. Navy is currently enforcing a blockade preventing ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

President Donald Trump on Friday said he would designate the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States “pretty soon” as the status of the waterway, a global chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes, remains under a military and diplomatic deadlock.

Iran has fired back, dubbing Trump’s threats as “nonsense” as the memorandum of understanding signed between the two in June expires on Sunday.

Tehran has blocked the passage to leverage it as a global economy kill switch, while Washington has maintained a military naval blockade against Iran’s ports, choking its economy further.

In the apparent game of who blinks first – though Trump says negotiation with Iran “is like chess” – the US president’s military rhetoric has also followed a pattern throughout the ongoing war, which began on February 28. On many occasions, he has threatened to attack Iran only to pull back at the eleventh hour.

So, can the US actually make the Strait of Hormuz its territory? And what does that even mean?

What has Trump said?

“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said during a speech at a police academy in New York.

Referring to the naval blockade, Trump went a step further to suggest that the Strait of Hormuz is already a US territory. “Essentially, that’s what it is,” he added.

“We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to,” he said.

Iran maintains that it controls the waterway — and despite the US claims, some vessels have transited the passage despite the blockade, maritime navigation data shows.

“It’s clear the US president, with a chuckle as he said that, even himself, is not taking this particularly seriously,” said Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett, reporting from Washington, DC.

“These are the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. But what the US president likes to do is get under the skin of adversaries, and, in this case, it’s Iran,” she said.

“What we should point out, though, is what the US president is not backing down on is the fact that there is a naval blockade by the United States in effect in the Strait of Hormuz, and that is ongoing.

How has Iran reacted to it?

Several Iranian officials have sharply reacted to Trump’s remarks. The head of the judiciary came out with furious rhetoric, calling the US president criminal and feather-headed, his remarks “nonsense” and saying the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, also responded, saying, “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, nor by aircraft carrier, nor by issuing an order, nor by an election speech.”

“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian; this strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iran has been holding talks with Oman, the only other coastal country in the strait, to reach a settlement on the management of maritime traffic in the strait. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in comments carried by the Iranian Students’ News Agency, said negotiations between Tehran and Muscat “may reach a conclusion soon”.

The reopening of the waterway, however, is a separate issue, Araghchi said, where Washington has to adhere to promises made in the June memorandum of understanding, including removal of the naval blockade and sanctions on Iran.

That is the new Iranian position on the ongoing war, where Tehran is now seeking these US concessions for mere reopening of the waterway, which were originally conditions for ending the war.

Is Trump’s claim even practical?

First, sovereignty does not exchange hands over a mere unilateral presidential proclamation.

For instance, Trump had earlier threatened to send US boots to Iran’s Kharg Island to take over the key Iranian oil export hub in the Gulf. Tehran then responded by saying that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be waiting for them, “with fingers on the trigger”. Trump had previously also threatened to take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark.

Bruce Fein, associate deputy attorney general under President Ronald Reagan, says Trump is constitutionally powerless to annex on his own.

“A treaty ratified by the Senate or statute is constitutionally required to annex territory, as with the Louisiana Purchase or annexation of Hawaii or Panama Canal or acquisition of Puerto Rico or the Philippines in ending the Spanish-American War.

If he goes ahead with annexation, Fein says, it would “constitute the crime of aggressive war under international law, including the UN Charter”.

Natalie Klein, a specialist in international law and associate dean at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, said, “Essentially the only way Trump’s claim could have any plausibility under international law would be if the US was asserting control over the Strait as an occupying power perhaps comparable to the authority the US exercised over Japan immediately after World War II.”

“But in that scenario, the US would need to have military control over Iran or at least its coastal areas.”

Trump’s war on Iran is also widely unpopular in the US, where the president and his fellow Republicans are seeking to defend their narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections. Barely 35 percent of Americans approve of the war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Several US media publications have reported that Washington is running short on munitions, including the crucial Patriot antimissile interceptor. Petrol prices have also increased, and are now averaging more than $4 a gallon – a major issue for Americans.

Last week, US Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration’s top priority in the war was to control increasing petrol prices, while stopping Iran’s supposed race to a nuclear weapon now comes second.

Tehran has also attacked its neighbours in the Gulf, which analysts say are aimed at forcing the regional countries to push Washington into a corner at the negotiating table.

Even Iran does not enjoy unfettered sovereignty over the strait as a whole, under international laws, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), but only some coastal sites near its own borders.

The UNCLOS recognises coastal-state sovereignty over territorial waters, but limits that territorial sea to 12 nautical miles (22km), and notes that ships enjoy a right of passage that “shall not be impeded”.

The Strait of Hormuz is in international waters, sandwiched between the coasts of Iran and Oman. At its narrowest point, the strait is only about 21 nautical miles (39km) wide — and the two countries’ 12-nautical mile territorial seas overlap across it.

While neither the US nor Iran has ratified UNCLOS, the convention’s rules on international straits are widely regarded as customary law.

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Trump usually makes such statements primarily to speak to a US audience, especially his support base.

It is important to remember, he added, that Trump is a product of US reality TV and is, at the end of the day, a “showman”.

“This is a guy who speaks big. You have to take him seriously in some cases but not literally,” Musgrave cautioned.

Trump cannot be taken seriously, especially in this case because making the strait US territory is physically and legally impossible, he said. But the statements do show that Trump is determined not to back down from Iran and accept defeat in the months-long war, he added.

Israel kills 11 in deadliest attacks on Lebanon since June truce as Iran and Oman continue talks on Hormuz.

Aug. 15 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Friday said he wants the Strait of Hormuz to become U.S. territory.

Speaking at an event in New York, Trump said he plans to declare ownership of the waterway between Oman and Iran once the war is over.

“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said, as reported by the Guardian.

“Essentially, that’s what it is,” he added. “We have the blockade — no ships get through unless we want them to.”

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, on Saturday called the president’s remarks “fanciful delusions.”

“Once and for all, accept the reality: up to this point, you have suffered strategic and heavy defeats,” Gharibabadi said in a statement on X. “The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian.”

“This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” Gharibabadi added.

Traffic through the strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually pass, has slowed dramatically since Trump launched the war with Iran on Feb. 28.

Six ships traveled through the strait last weekend, where usually as many as 140 would pass in a single day, The Hill reported.

Both Trump and Iranian officials claim to have control of the strait.

“We have control over it, nobody else, only us,” Trump told reporters earlier this week, The Hill reported. “Our Navy is unbelievable and things are going great for our country.”

Published on
12/08/2026 – 16:50 GMT+2

Two of the most influential voices in energy markets set out opposing readings of the year on Wednesday.

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The IEA now expects the world to burn less oil in 2026 than it did in 2025, its first such call since Covid-19 ground the global economy to a near-halt, while OPEC still pencils in growth, leaving them more than two million barrels a day apart.

The Paris-based IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, a downgrade of 510,000 b/d from July.

“The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption,” it said, cutting its second-half forecast by roughly 550,000 b/d.

OPEC still expects demand to grow, though its estimate has been trimmed for a fourth consecutive month, to 580,000 b/d from 780,000 b/d.

The producer group has consistently argued the war has done less damage to consumption than Western forecasters believe, and the two sets of numbers imply a difference of about 2.2 mb/d in what the world will burn this year.

Supply still 6.3 million barrels short

The supply picture explains the pessimism.

Global production rose by 2.4 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d in July but remained 6.3 mb/d below year-earlier levels, with 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in.

Gulf production climbed to 23.9 mb/d, yet regional exports fell 2.1 mb/d to 15 mb/d after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again in early July and tankers and infrastructure came under attack, with loadings sliding from 20 mb/d to around 12 mb/d.

With no deal to reopen the waterway or secure passage through Bab el-Mandeb, the IEA cut its supply forecasts again and now expects output to fall by 4.3 mb/d this year.

Observed global stocks also dropped by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 billion, down 410 million since the war began.

Both bet on 2027

Where the two agree is next year.

OPEC now expects demand to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2027, an upgrade from the 1.94 mb/d it forecast last month, while the IEA goes further still at 2.4 mb/d.

That is an inversion worth highlighting, as the gloomier forecaster for this year delivers a more bullish read for the next.

The IEA reads the damage as a blockage rather than a collapse, oil that cannot reach buyers rather than demand that has vanished, so the deeper this year’s hole, the steeper the climb out of it once Hormuz reopens.

OPEC, which never accepted that consumption fell much, has less ground to make up for.

The agency’s outlook rests explicitly on de-escalation, assuming flows gradually recover and turning this year’s supply contraction into growth of 8.3 mb/d, flipping a 1.3 mb/d deficit into a 4.6 mb/d surplus.