Strait

WASHINGTON — A tentative armistice between the United States and Iran reached less than a month ago appeared all but dead Wednesday after the two sides traded fresh military strikes, and as President Trump directed further attacks on the Islamic Republic.

The escalation marked a dramatic turn after the Trump administration spent weeks selling a diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran that proved controversial across the political aisle, lifting oil sanctions and a naval blockade on Iran in exchange for the promise of talks over the status of the Strait of Hormuz and its decades-old nuclear program.

Now, speaking to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump said he believed the truce — which diplomats describe as a memorandum of understanding — was “over” and that it was a “waste of time” dealing with Iranian leadership.

“They’re scum. They’re sick people,” Trump said of Iranian leaders, whom he had characterized last month as “very rational people” and “very nice to deal with.”

The president’s dim views of the ceasefire agreement’s fate were shared by Iran’s foreign ministry, which issued a statement on Wednesday saying the American attacks, the reinstatement of a U.S. naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel’s continuing attacks in Lebanon rendered “important and fundamental” parts of the deal “ineffective.”

The truce’s unraveling was underscored by Trump ordering the U.S. military to launch a series of strikes against Iran on Wednesday afternoon to “further degrade their ability to threaten” the commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement on social media.

Earlier in the day, Trump signaled that the United States planned to “hit them hard” and floated the possibility of taking over Kharg Island, which is vital to Iran’s economy. His remarks quickly prompted oil prices to rise and global stock markets to fall, a worry that Trump acknowledged but which did not seem to sway his decision-making in relation to Iran.

“If we hit Iran, oil goes up a little bit, it is all right,” Trump said. He later added that the United States may “do some other thing that could lift it a little bit, but I don’t think it’s gonna lift it a lot at all.”

As Trump signals the continuation of fighting, his administration has been seeking more than $67 billion in funding to cover expenses related to the Iran war, a request that Congress has not yet approved as lawmakers have been split over the president’s handling of the conflict.

“The American people are paying the price for Trump’s total failure in Iran,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement Wednesday. “Our troops are back in harm’s way and high gas costs are continuing to punish working families.”

The president’s stance on the war marked the latest setback to a fragile truce that has barely held since the 14-page agreement was signed June 17, as the U.S. and Iran engaged over the last few weeks in cycles of attacks and counterattacks.

Trump was noticeably angrier at Iran on Wednesday as he cast doubt over the deal. Last month, Trump had complimented Iranian leadership for trying to reach a peace deal and celebrated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route for the world’s oil and gas. But based on his remarks, it was clear he was out of patience.

“I am not happy with them,” Trump said. “They’re cuckoo. There’s something wrong with these people. For 47 years, they’ve been the bully of the Middle East and they are not the bully anymore. They are not the bully anymore.”

Trump expressed frustration with Iran’s negotiators and their resistance to abiding by U.S. demands to reopen the strait. When asked if he intended to send troops to Iran, the president dismissed the idea.

“Why would I go in now?” Trump said. “I’d go in when they’re completely eliminated or an agreement is made.”

Still, the president kept the door open for negotiations, saying that his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner “want to negotiate.”

“They’re good people, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, but they have to come back to me,” Trump said. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with [the Iranians]. They’re liars.”

The latest breakdown to the ceasefire followed a now-familiar chain reaction of tit-for-tat attacks, starting with a series of strikes on three oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, including a Qatari vessel carrying natural gas, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center.

The Qatari tanker was off the coast of Oman when it was hit and caught fire, the maritime monitor said, in what experts say was a move to thwart ships attempting to use an alternate transit route to the one Iran specified. Iran did not claim responsibility, but a report on Iranian state television said the Qatari tanker came under attack after ignoring warnings to turn back.

The two other vessels were damaged but were able to continue to their destination, according to the U.K. group.

Qatar, which has played a vital role in facilitating negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, condemned the attack on its tanker as “unacceptable.”

The U.S. responded with a wave of strikes against more than 80 Iranian targets aimed at “impos[ing] heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” according to a statement from U.S. Central Command. That tally included roughly 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in the strait.

Iranian state media said U.S. strikes targeted Sirik, Qeshm Island and Bushehr and Bandar Abbas, while a U.S. drone strike on the port city of Mahshahr killed one Revolutionary Guard member.

Ahead of the strikes, the White House revoked the 60-day temporary license given to Tehran to sell and deliver oil during the truce.

Iran’s military countered with its own strikes on 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait; it also shot down an MQ-9 drone, according to a statement on Wednesday.

Kuwait said its military intercepted two ballistic missiles and 13 drones, but that none had resulted in material damage or casualties.

Global oil prices surged 6% on news of Trump’s reversal on the deal, rising to more than $78 a barrel, down from the peak during the war but still above prewar levels.

The renewed violence appeared to have little effect on the funeral for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Feb. 28, in the war’s opening hours.

The funeral, a days-long period of mourning, is set to end on Thursday, when Khamenei’s body will return from Iraq to be buried in the city of Mashhad, his birthplace. Negotiations were to begin once more.

In his remarks Wednesday, Trump said Iranian leaders had asked for a “timeout” to attend the funeral, and that he had promised not to kill them.

“And I said give it to them, and they start shooting missiles,” Trump said.

Whether those talks — which were meant to deal with the thorniest issues between the two countries, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program — will go ahead remains unclear. Iran, for its part, maintained a defiant attitude.

“The era of bullying and extortion is over,” wrote Mohammad Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker. “It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.”

Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the supreme leader, posted on X that Trump’s policy had “driven the region towards fire.”

“We had previously warned that the region is not a place for the political gambling of small countries, and we have repeatedly proven that adventures are met with an immediate response,” he wrote.

He added that the Axis of Resistance — a reference to Iran’s network of allied groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen — would not be “silent against humiliation and adventurism” and has “its finger on the trigger.”

Bulos reported from Beirut and Ceballos from Washington.

On Tuesday, two tankers were attacked as they transited the Strait of Hormuz via a passage in Omani waters. Gulf countries responded by sharply condemning the attacks and blaming Iran. The United States then launched attacks on Iranian territory, to which Tehran responded by striking Bahrain and Kuwait. US President Donald Trump has now said the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that Iran and the US signed is void.

This latest escalation illustrates how the Strait of Hormuz has become the central issue in the US-Israel war with Iran that began on February 28. Disagreements over the strait’s future have proven to be the hardest to resolve in the US-Iranian negotiations, as questions about Iran’s nuclear programme have been put to the side.

The disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has an immediate and costly price tag attached, for Iran, for its Gulf neighbours, and for a global economy that has spent four and a half months absorbing the largest oil supply shock in the history of the modern market.

Iran’s leverage is also its liability

For Tehran, the strait is its strongest card – one that is also incredibly costly. Since the war began, Iranian forces have mined the strait, attacked vessels and cut traffic through the passage by roughly 95 percent. This has led to what the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol has called “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.

That leverage is real: about a fifth of the world’s oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) normally move through Hormuz, and no amount of Gulf pipeline capacity can fully replace it.

But Iran has effectively been strangling its own lifeline along with everyone else’s. Iranian crude, once sold for $3 a barrel less than international benchmarks, is now selling at a 20 percent discount. The country’s oil exports collapsed by more than 90 percent in May as US naval enforcement squeezed its shadow fleet.

Even before the war, the World Bank projected that Iran’s economy would contract in 2026. The impact of the collapse of oil sales will be far-reaching because of the closure.

A 60-day US Treasury waiver issued on June 22, permitting Iran to sell oil at full market rates through August 21, but has now been renounced following the attacks on Tuesday.

This is the economic backdrop to Iran’s insistence on asserting joint authority over the strait and floating a system of transit fees or “service charges” for passing ships. Washington has made clear that Iran cannot charge tolls in international waters governed by the right of transit passage under the Law of the Sea.

For Tehran, the dispute is not really about toll revenue, which would be rather modest when compared to its oil income; it is about establishing precedent and sovereignty over a chokepoint that is its only real point of leverage once sanctions relief and frozen-asset release are negotiated.

The latter is itself contested: Iran wants half of an estimated $25bn in frozen assets released immediately, while the US has resisted. A separate $300bn reconstruction fund floated in the MoU has already become a political flashpoint in Washington.

The Gulf is paying for a crisis it didn’t start

For the Gulf states, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has meant improvising around geography. Saudi Arabia has redirected crude through its roughly 1,200km (746-mile) East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, and the UAE has leaned on the Habshan-to-Fujairah line to the Gulf of Oman.

Together, though, these pipelines carry a fraction of what Hormuz once did, at best 7 million barrels a day of design capacity for the Saudi line and under 1.8 million for the Emirati one, against roughly 20 million barrels a day that transited the strait before the war.

Both alternatives have themselves come under attack: Iranian strikes cut the East-West pipeline’s throughput by an estimated 700,000 barrels a day in April, and drone attacks disrupted loading at Fujairah. Seaborne crude exports from Gulf states excluding Iran fell by roughly half between February and March.

Qatar, host to the talks between Iran and the US, has its own acute stake: its entire LNG export industry depends on the Strait of Hormuz, and it has been pushing the hardest for a settlement.

Oman, drawn into Iran’s sovereignty claim as co-owner of the strait’s territorial waters, is caught between commercial interest in a resolution and a legal position, as a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that publicly rejects Iranian tolls. Iraq, highly dependent on its Gulf terminals, has quietly explored an export route north through Turkiye.

None of these workarounds are cheap, and all of them are political as well as commercial, tying Gulf capitals’ economic fortunes to a settlement between the US and Iran.

The rest of the world: Insurance bills and inflation

Beyond the region, the crisis has been transmitted mainly through two channels: price and insurance. Higher oil prices are passed on to various consumer goods down supply chains and suppress growth. According to estimates, the global economy can slow down to 2.8 percent in 2026 from 3.4 percent last year due to the closure of the strait.

Insurance for Hormuz transit, which cost roughly 0.25 percent of a vessel’s value before the war, has spiked as high as 8 percent, turning a single large tanker’s coverage into a $3m-to-$8m expense. Shipping lines including CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have layered on conflict surcharges of $1,500 to $2,000 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU). Washington’s own International Development Finance Corporation has had to step in as, in effect, an insurer of last resort, offering up to $40bn in reinsurance capacity to keep vessels moving.

China has absorbed the largest share of this pain: It takes close to 40 percent of its crude imports through the Strait of Hormuz and buys more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports outright, making it simultaneously Tehran’s most important customer and one of the war’s most exposed bystanders. Japan, which sources 70 percent of its Middle Eastern crude via the strait, has already tapped strategic reserves.

For import-dependent economies across Asia and Europe, the strait’s fate is not an abstraction of Middle East diplomacy; it shows up directly in fuel, freight and fertiliser prices.

Oil and gas dominate the headlines, but roughly 30 percent of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade also passes through Hormuz.

The World Bank’s fertiliser price index has risen more than 12 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and has since climbed to its highest level since October 2022, driven largely by the closure. The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the resulting scarcity of urea and other nitrogen products will show up as lower yields through the 2026–2027 growing season, hitting import-dependent and already food-insecure countries in Africa and Asia the hardest.

Unlike an oil-price spike, which mainly stings at the pump, a fertiliser shortfall reaches into next year’s harvest, meaning an unresolved Hormuz standoff carries a slower-moving but longer tail of economic damage than crude prices alone suggest.

That is the arithmetic weighing on both sides. A deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz without resolving who controls it risks recreating the same instability that shut it in the first place; one that concedes Iranian toll authority risks a precedent Washington and shipping nations will not accept. Until that circle is squared, the global economy is left pricing in a chokepoint that neither side can fully afford to keep closed, nor fully agree how to reopen.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces have launched “a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway.” The U.S. strikes “are in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM stated on X. “Iran’s demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

The official Iranian state media outlet IRIB reported 13 explosions in southern Iran.

The CENTCOM attacks follow the U.S. Treasury Department revoking a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil. That abrogates a key part of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by Washington and Tehran on June 18.

Here’s the new Treasury license on Iran: “Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian Origin” pic.twitter.com/2jgRRTQudu

— Phil Mattingly (@Phil_Mattingly) July 7, 2026

While the future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its stockpile of enriched uranium are among other key issues addressed in the document, the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a flashpoint.

The latest attacks on shipping all involved tankers.

“A LNG tanker reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side engine room causing a fire, whilst travelling southbound through the SOH,” UKMTO reported. That incident took place about eight nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.

Before that, a “VLCC reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side upon exiting the SOH” about 16 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan, UAE, UKMTO added. “Vessel was able to proceed to NPOC [nearest point of call] and no crew injuries were reported.”

The first of the three vessels struck today was a tanker that reported being attacked six nautical miles east of Musandam Peninsula, Oman “by an unknown projectile and has sustained minor structural damage,” UKMTO stated. “No casualties or environmental impact reported and vessel is proceeding to NPOC.”

These attacks all took place along the southern-most route in the Strait, which is controlled by the U.S. and Oman. Iran controls the northern route and the mid-section of the body of water is considered too dangerous to transit due to the threat of mines.

Last Thursday, Iran’s military warned that all oil tankers moving through the Strait must use its approved routes. It also said that interference by U.S. forces in the strait “will be met with a rapid and decisive reaction.”

But the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), a multinational body overseen by the U.S. Navy, told shippers Monday that the route around Oman “has been expanded and remains available for all traffic.”

The most recent attacks on shipping came after that JMIC notification and about a week after Iran and the U.S. promised to stop striking each other. 

What happens next is unknown. The peace talks were paused while Iran holds a weeklong funeral for former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in an airstrike.

In an interview with Iranian media posted on X, Iranian Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, advisor to Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, seemed to appeal to Iranian hardliners who want to resume fighting.

“Friends who oppose negotiations, be patient; the Americans themselves will derail these talks,” he posited.

This is a developing story.

UPDATE: 6:22 PM EDT –

Video and still images purporting to show the U.S. attacks on Iran are emerging on social media. Bandar Abbas, site of Iran’s key naval base on the Strait of Hormuz, appears to be one of the targets. Bandar Abbas has come under attack several times during this conflict.

Fires seen burning at the Port of Shahid Haqqani in Bandar Abbas, Southern Iran, following tonight’s wave of retaliatory strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure sites by the U.S. Air Force and Navy. pic.twitter.com/ccZPuZvDPG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) July 7, 2026

Bandar Abbas Airport was a major target tonight, where a senior figure in the Islamic regime was present and from where the regime has launched missiles and drones toward neighboring countries. This regime only understands Hebrew and Arabic; it does not understand American… pic.twitter.com/RdDPTgR87T

— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) July 7, 2026

Video from Shahid Haqqani Port, validated by the network, following U.S. airstrikes on the facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran. pic.twitter.com/msNbYm6r7O

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) July 7, 2026

In a post on X, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said the U.S. strikes on Iran today were “four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago.”

The U.S. strikes in Iran on Tuesday were four or five times bigger in scope and power than the previous strikes 10 days ago, the U.S. official told me https://t.co/TiDTGTxMTV

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 7, 2026

Authorities “have launched a search effort for K2 Airways Cargo 737 AP-BOI after the flight did not land as scheduled in Karachi,” FlightRadar24 reported. “KTA1732 was en route from Sharjah to Karachi when contact was lost with the aircraft. Preliminary ADS-B data indicate a loss of altitude, followed by a climb, and then a second, sudden and dramatic loss of altitude. The final received data point from the aircraft was at 16:21 UTC, placing the aircraft at 1,100 ft AMSL with a reported vertical rate of -22,400 feet per minute.”

According to FlightRadar24’s data, the cargo jet flew east over the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman when it disappeared from radar screens at about 12:20 PM EDT.

The Pakistan Airports Authority reported on X that the aircraft was suffering a “navigational system issue” before contact was lost. There were five people onboard at the time.

However; at time 2121PST aircraft was observed on RADAR rapidly descending and with rapid heading change, subsequently RADAR contact and communication was lost approximately 155 NM west of Karachi.

— Pakistan Airports Authority (@Pk_PAA_Official) July 7, 2026

The exact cause of this incident is unknown at this time. While there are no indications that the aircraft was lost due to hostile activity, the area is extremely tense.

UPDATE: 947 PM EDT –

CENTCOM says it has “completed its strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”

“U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor,” the command said in a statement.

“Iran recently attacked three commercial vessels transiting the strait including Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity,” CENTCOM added. “The unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces is a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire and undermines freedom of navigation. CENTCOM forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable when the agreement is not adhered to or obeyed.”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Qatar and Saudi Arabia also denounced the attacks, each saying a tanker from its country had been hit while transiting in or near the strait, and blaming Iran.

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said it held Iran “fully responsible” for an apparent targeted attack on a vessel called Al-Rekayyat as it transited near the strait.

Qatar demanded that Iran “immediately cease all practices that undermine regional security” and “refrain from endangering global energy supplies & the resources of the countries of the region in pursuit of narrow interests”, he added in a post on X.

In a separate social media post, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry said Iran had targeted the Saudi tanker Wadyan as it crossed the strait.

It added that the assaults were “an attack on the security and safety of international navigation, and the security of global energy supplies”.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described Qatar’s accusations as “contrary to the principle of good neighbourliness”.

In a statement, posted to Telegram, he added that commercial vessels using routes not co-ordinated with Iran or tampering with the ship’s tracking face a risk of collision and disrupt Iran’s efforts to “facilitate safe transit” in the strait.

The UKMTO said a tanker travelling through the strait had reported a fire after an unknown projectile hit an engine room on Monday.

In two separate incidents on Tuesday, a tanker reported being hit as it exited the strait but was able to proceed to its next port of call, while another tanker reported sustaining minor structural damage after being struck, the organisation said.

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding, agreed last month, extended a ceasefire between the two countries.

The 14-point agreement would put an end to all conflict “on all fronts”, says that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and also commits a $300bn (£220bn) fund for the “reconstruction and economic development” of the country – although the US is not required to contribute.

As part of the agreement Iran and Oman, which both border Hormuz, must hold talks “to define the future administration and maritime services” in the waterway with other Gulf states.

Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies are usually transported, following US and Israeli strikes on 28 February.

During the conflict Iran sought to assert its sovereignty over the strait, including by establishing the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” which it said would manage “safe passage permits”.

Iran’s Fars news agency has reported that under the new deal with the US the strait would ultimately be managed by Iran in co-ordination with Oman, including possible “service fees” for ships to transit the waterway.

July 6 (UPI) — An oil tanker was struck by an unknown projectile near the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, the British military said, renewing tensions amid U.S.-Iran negotiations.

The unidentified ship was hit about 8 nautical miles off the coast of Limah, Oman, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center said in a statement.

The ship’s master reported the incident at 1:19 a.m. local time, it said.

The strike to the port side of the vessel caused a fire, officials said, though no casualties or environmental impact was reported.

Though Iran has eased its maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran continues to seek control over the vital energy transit route.

Following the strike, Iran’s state-controlled Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that the Qatari tanker Al Rekayyat was targeted after allegedly ignoring Iranian warnings against transiting through what it called the “Omani route” of the Strait of Hormuz.

It said the tanker was being escorted through the route by the U.S. Navy.

It was not immediately clear whether Al Rekayyat had been struck or whether it was the vessel reported by UKMTO.

Al Rekayyat is a liquefied natural gas tanker sailing under the Marshall Islands flag, according to the Marine Traffic website.

Iran has been blamed for attacks on more than 15 ships during its effort to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Israel launched a joint offensive against Tehran on Feb. 28.

The strait has been a sticking point in ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran toward ending the war. Iran has resisted the Trump administration’s demand for freedom of navigation through the strait, seeking to maintain authority over shipping routes there.

Late last month, the newly founded Persian Gulf Strait Authority warned vessels attempting to transit outside its approved routes that their security cannot be ensured.

Last week, the two sides held indirect talks in Doha, but made little progress.

Military command issues threat a day after Qatari mediators hailed ‘positive progress’ in indirect US-Iranian talks.

Iran’s military command has threatened ships that attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz using unapproved routes with a “forceful response,” casting new doubt over trade flows in the critical conduit for global energy supplies.

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters issued the threat on Thursday, a day after Qatari mediators hailed indirect negotiations between US and Iranian officials as making “positive progress” towards a peace deal.

“Any failure to comply with and depart from the designated route or disregard for the navigation protocols of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz will be met with an immediate and forceful response from the armed forces, and will endanger the security of the offending vessels,” the military command said in a statement carried by the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency.

While Tehran did not specify what prompted the warning, it came after US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday said it had presided over a security dialogue in Bahrain during which regional leaders expressed their commitment to the “free flow of commerce” in the strait.

Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi hit out at CENTCOM’s statement on Thursday, saying the forum “cannot establish legal order and security for the Persian Gulf”.

“The region’s security will be ensured through the end of interventions and the US withdrawal from the area, respect for countries’ sovereignty, and acceptance of new geopolitical realities – not under the military umbrella of America,” Gharibabadi said in a post on X.

The Strait of Hormuz, which facilitated about one-fifth of the global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas before the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February, has become a major sticking point in Washington and Tehran’s talks aimed at turning their fragile ceasefire into a lasting peace.

While Iran agreed to make its “best efforts” to arrange the safe passage of ships in the strait in the memorandum of understanding it signed with the US on June 17, Tehran has repeatedly threatened to attack ships that do not use its preferred route close to the Iranian shoreline.

At least 49 attacks on commercial vessels have been recorded in the strait since the start of the war on February 28, according to MarineTraffic.

Most of those incidents, including drone attacks on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship and Panama-flagged merchant vessel on Thursday and Saturday, respectively, have been blamed on Tehran.

While transits through the waterway have risen since US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed their MoU on June 17, they remain far below the roughly 130 daily crossings that took place before the conflict.

At least 45 vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, up from 34 on Tuesday, according to MarineTraffic data.

After dropping to pre-war levels on Thursday on reports of productive talks in Doha, oil prices largely held steady as markets opened in Asia on Friday.

Brent futures for August delivery stood at $72.07 per barrel as of 02:30 GMT, after dropping below $71 for the first time since the war the previous day.

Brent crude edges up as tit-for-tat strikes imperial return to normality in key waterway.

Oil prices have climbed following the latest flare-up in hostilities between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude, the primary international benchmark, rose about 0.9 percent on Monday after tit-for-tat US and Iranian strikes over the weekend renewed doubts about a return to normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures for August delivery stood at $73.21 a barrel as of 03:30 GMT, 127 cents higher than the day before the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.

“Brent’s partial rebound this morning reflects a market that had perhaps run too quickly on ceasefire optimism,” Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG in Sydney, Australia, told Al Jazeera.

“Oil had nearly unwound its entire war premium, despite an MoU with no enforcement details and ongoing strikes. Thursday’s attack on a commercial vessel was a reality check, and this weekend’s tit-for-tat exchanges have compounded that,” Yip said.

Asian stock markets were mixed on Monday morning, with losses in Tokyo and Seoul and gains in Hong Kong and Taipei.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was 0.7 percent lower, while South Korea’s Kospi was down 1.9 percent.

Japanese and Korean stocks tied to the AI boom saw some of the biggest losses amid heated debate about whether tech firms’ massive investments in the emerging technology will pay off.

Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group fell about 5 percent, while Advantest Corporation, a key maker of semiconductor testing equipment, slumped 3.7 percent.

South Korean memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped about 5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index and Taiwan’s Taiex both rose, gaining 2.2 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

“Quarter-end profit-taking is adding to the selling pressure, with investors locking in gains from what has been a remarkable run. The Kospi is up roughly 95 percent this year, and the Nikkei up 37 percent,” IG’s Yip said.

“The underlying concern, however, is whether the AI boom can continue to translate into sustained earnings growth, or whether margin pressure is arriving sooner than the market anticipated.”

US Central Command announced strikes against Iran on Friday and Saturday, citing Iranian attacks on two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which in peacetime serves as a conduit for about one-fifth of the global trade in oil and liquified natural gas.

Iran responded to the strikes by launching a series of missiles and drones targeting US military assets in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Washington and Tehran agreed to cease their attacks and renew their negotiations on ending the war, multiple media outlets reported late on Sunday, citing unnamed US officials.

Axios, citing an unnamed senior US official, reported that the sides would hold talks in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday.

Iran has yet to comment on the reported agreement to cease hostilities or the planned talks.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war on June 17, but the agreement has repeatedly come under strain due to flare-ups in hostilities and disagreements about the meaning of the text.

Iran’s foreign minister has urged ‘all parties not to interfere’ in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, after the US bombed Iran for a second day following a drone attack on a vessel. Abbas Araghchi says the MoU gives Tehran control of the waterway, during a press conference with his Iraqi counterpart in Baghdad.

Iran’s IRGC says it targeted US military in region after Trump administration launched attack on the country.

The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) has suspended plans to evacuate more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship transiting the waterway was struck by a projectile.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said several crews had already been evacuated, but the agency had decided to pause the operation until there were “necessary safety guarantees” for those involved.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a Royal Navy maritime security agency, said on Thursday that a cargo vessel had been struck by “an unknown projectile” about 7.5 nautical miles (14km) southeast of Dahit, Oman. No casualties were reported.

The incident comes despite a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by the United States and Iran last week that ended hostilities and included provisions aimed at reopening the strategic waterway. Iran had restricted passage through the strait in early March after the US and Israel attacked it on February 28. In April, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran-linked vessels trying to pass through the waterway.

Since the MoU was signed, commercial traffic has restarted through the strait, but key disagreements remain over which shipping routes vessels should use — and whether Iran gets to charge a toll or fee.

Oman and the IMO have proposed a new shipping corridor that would partially bypass waters under Iran’s direct control. Tehran has rejected the plan, saying it was announced without consultation and raises safety concerns while demining operations are still under way. While Iran has not claimed responsibility for Thursday’s attack on the ship off Oman, it has not denied any role, either.

The latest attack has heightened concerns that tensions over navigation through the strait remain unresolved. Here’s what we know.

Why is the UN evacuating sailors?

Following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, Tehran and Washington imposed counter restrictions on the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving thousands of seafarers unable to leave vessels trapped in the waterway.

More than a dozen sailors have also been killed in attacks on ships — some from American missiles, others from Iranian projectiles. Most of those killed were from India.

Even with last week’s agreement between Washington and Tehran to end the conflict, more than 11,000 sailors remain stranded in the strait.

Announcing the evacuation plan on Tuesday, the IMO’s Dominguez said the operation would be conducted in “close cooperation with Iran, Oman, all other coastal states in the region, the United States and the maritime industry”.

Oman’s Ministry of Defence said the operation, which had been under discussion for months, would be carried out in phases.

Denmark also announced on Tuesday that it would join a multinational maritime mission led by France and Britain to help restore safe navigation through the strait.

Why was the ship attacked?

The Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely was struck by what authorities described as an “unknown projectile” while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.

Ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic showed the vessel had been following the southern shipping route proposed by the IMO earlier that day, a corridor that passes closer to Oman’s coastline and has been rejected by Iran.

Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) said the vessel had since completed its transit through the strait and was continuing its voyage, adding that all 21 crew members were safe.

The authority said it was “deeply concerned” by an attack it described as “unprovoked, unjustifiable, and a breach of international law”.

“All actions affecting international shipping must fully comply with international law, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and not endanger the safety of seafarers and ships at sea,” the MPA said.

The incident prompted the IMO to suspend its planned evacuation of stranded sailors. Dominguez said the Ever Lovely “did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework”.

“I have always reiterated that the safety of the seafarers remains paramount. Therefore, to ensure a coordinated approach and navigational safety, the evacuation plan will be paused until further clarity is obtained,” he said.

What has Iran said?

While it remains unclear if the attack was carried out by Iran, the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had criticised the new shipping corridor announced by Oman and the IMO, while also warning that passage through the strait, “is only possible via routes announced by Iran,” the state broadcaster IRIB reported.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, has said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed for vessels transiting “with ambiguous arrangements, parallel routes, or decision-making outside of Iran’s considerations as the coastal state”.

“Any credible framework must be based on coordination with Iran and the provisions of paragraph five of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,” he said in a statement on X. “Otherwise, the outcome will be the suspension of the designated parallel route.”

Iran first published its own map of approved navigation routes in April, directing ships to sail much closer to the Iranian coastline than before the conflict.

The IRGC’s latest warning came after a Liberian-flagged oil tanker transited the strait on Thursday using a route closer to Oman’s coast.

On Friday, a further three foreign oil tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz “without authorisation” were turned back after a warning from the IRGC, Iranian state TV reported.

Analysts say control over the Strait of Hormuz has long been one of Tehran’s most important sources of strategic leverage, allowing it to exert pressure on the US, whose economy is inextricably tied to global markets.

Why was the evacuation suspended?

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas said the attack appeared to show Iran was prepared to enforce its warnings over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran insisted vessels using either the Iranian or Omani route must coordinate with its authorities.

“Yesterday, Oman announced new routes for the passage of the ships. But then the IRGC released a statement, saying that whether the ships go through the Iranian or Omani territorial waters, they need to be in full coordination with Iranian authorities,” Atas said.

“And if they violate that, then Iran is going to act accordingly. So the question was whether Iran is going to really act or not?

“The answer is yes. Now, we have seen that a tanker has been attacked by some projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. The Revolutionary Guards did not claim responsibility but did not deny it either.”

Atas added that Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, had also warned that any shipping arrangements made without taking Iran’s position as a coastal state into account would be unacceptable.

“Perhaps, in the coming days and weeks, we are going to see that the Strait of Hormuz will be one of the main sticking points.”

What other disputes remain?

Under last week’s memorandum of understanding, Iran agreed it would “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa”.

Although the agreement says commercial traffic should resume immediately, it also acknowledges that mines laid during the conflict must first be cleared, stating that “demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days”.

It also provides for discussions between Iran, Oman and other Gulf states over future arrangements for managing navigation through the waterway.

However, the agreement does not specify what will happen after the initial 60-day period.

Last week, Tehran announced it would waive any transit fees during those 60 days while negotiations with the United States continue in Switzerland, raising the possibility that charges could be introduced if no broader agreement is reached.

Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has also suggested Tehran does not intend to return to the pre-war status quo.

“Hormuz will never return” to how it operated before the conflict, he said. The proposal has also faced resistance from the United States and several Gulf states.

Are ships still moving through the strait?

Commercial shipping has gradually resumed, although traffic remains well below normal levels. Before the conflict, between 120 and 140 vessels typically passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day.

According to maritime analytics firm Kpler, 54 verified commercial and energy-related vessels transited the strait on Thursday, down from 70 verified crossings the previous day.

“West-to-East movements dominated, while the Omani Route accounted for the largest share of identified passages. Yet route transparency remains incomplete, with several Dark or Unknown crossings recorded.

“A reported projectile strike on a cargo vessel southeast of Dahit, Oman, adds fresh operational risk, underscoring the gap between improving physical flows and still-fragile maritime security conditions,” Kpler added.

Brent crude rises after cargo ship comes under attack in key waterway.

Oil prices have jumped after the United Nations maritime agency called off its planned evacuation of ships stranded around the Strait of Hormuz following an attack on a cargo vessel in the waterway.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose as much as 4 percent on Thursday after the International Maritime Organization paused its evacuation plan amid renewed violence in the strait.

Brent futures for August delivery stood at $74.89 per barrel as of 02:00 GMT, after earlier dropping below $72.48, their closing price the day before the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran.

After dropping sharply following the US and Iran’s signing of a memorandum of understanding on ending the war last week, the price of Brent currently stands at about 3 percent above its pre-war level.

Asian markets opened lower on Friday, with key indices in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan seeing steep losses.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 and Seoul’s Kospi both fell more than 3 percent in morning trading, while the Taiex dropped about 1 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was down about 1 percent.

The latest attack in the strait, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas supplies transit in peacetime, dealt a blow to hopes for a return to normal shipping in the region after a recent resurgence in traffic.

On Wednesday, 70 vessels transited the waterway, a more than twofold increase from the previous day and the highest daily figure since March 1, according to ship tracking platforms MarineTraffic and Kpler.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre said on Thursday that a cargo vessel reported being struck by an “unknown projectile” on its starboard side while attempting to cross the strait near the Omani coast.

Multiple media outlets, including The New York Times, CBS News and the Reuters news agency, cited unnamed US officials as saying the attack had been carried out by Iran.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which claims the right to regulate shipping in the strait, said after the attack that any vessel attempting to use routes outside its designated “framework” would not be guaranteed safe passage.

“The consequences arising from passage through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander,” the authority said on X.

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta in Singapore, said the attack was a reminder to markets of the fragility of peace in the strait amid the tenuous US-Iran ceasefire.

“There is a pressing need for tankers to enter and offload the high crude stocks from onshore tanks in order for normal production to resume again,” Goh told Al Jazeera.

“Thus, security of the passageway is paramount to recover the lost supply.”

The U.N. International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its plan to evacuate hundreds of ships stuck in the Persian Gulf after a vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. A U.S. official told us the attack was carried out by an Iranian drone, which was confirmed by Iranian officials.

The evacuation plan, which IMO developed with Oman, was designed to provide safe passage to vessels in the Persian Gulf that are still unable to transit the Strait, which has been largely closed since Iran was attacked by the U.S. and Israel. The announcement came as traffic was beginning to move through the Strait again amid ongoing, albeit tense peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. However, these transits represent a tiny fraction of what took place before the war.

The IMO decision today also came after a warning earlier on Thursday by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) that safe passage through the Strait was limited to routes designated by Tehran and that other routes were “unacceptable and completely dangerous,” according to The Washington Post. The publication cited Iranian state-run media. The IRGC-N also claimed it turned back several ships trying to transit the Strait through the southern route suggested by IMO. There is also a northern route, near the Iranian coastline while concerns remain about mines in the main route, down the middle of the Strait.

IMO said it is pausing its evacuation plan even though the ship that was attacked was not taking part in that nascent effort.

“Following the launch of the IMO’s evacuation plan, through which several vessels have already been successfully evacuated, I have decided to temporarily pause its implementation in order to reconfirm that the necessary safety guarantees continue to be in place for the ships on our evacuation list and all those in the region,” IMO Secretary-General Mr. Arsenio Dominguez said in a statement. “I have been informed of an attack today in the Gulf of Oman on a vessel which passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This vessel did not transit under IMO’s evacuation framework. I have always reiterated that the safety of the seafarers remains paramount. Therefore, to ensure a coordinated approach and navigational safety, the evacuation plan will be paused until further clarity is obtained.”

“Today marks the Day of the Seafarer, underlining the importance of ensuring that the continued evacuation of the thousands of seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf can proceed without the risk of them becoming collateral victims in this geopolitical conflict,” Dominguez added.

A maritime security official told us the ship that was attacked was the Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged cargo ship, according to MarineTraffic. The incident occurred about 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Dahit, Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center.

“A cargo vessel has been hit on the starboard side by an unknown projectile, causing damage to the bridge,” UKMTO stated on X. “Master has reported no casualties and no environmental impact. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said all Gulf countries oppose a toll in the Strait of Hormuz during a tour of the region following US-Iran talks. Rubio added, “There isn’t a nation on Earth that supports having to pay money to go through the straits”.

Oman and the U.N. International Maritime Organization (IMO) are sharpening up their plan to evacuate hundreds of ships still stuck in the Persian Gulf since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. The move comes as shipping traffic in this strategic chokepoint is increasing amid tense ongoing peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. However, there is still a very long way to go and many challenges, including the possible presence of mines, to overcome before transits reach pre-war levels.

“The Sultanate of Oman based on its responsibilities toward the Strait of Hormuz, and its importance to the global economy, and in accordance to its continued commitment to the international law and the law of the sea to ensure freedom of navigation in the strait without imposing any tolls, in line with the outcomes and efforts reached by the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran…has worked in coordination with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to provide vessels with the option of a temporary maritime corridor defined by the coordinates announced by IMO and Omani authorities. Ships willing to transit must coordinate with IMO,” Oman’s Maritime Security Center stated Wednesday on X.

“This large-scale operation will be carried out in close cooperation with Iran, Oman, all other coastal States in the region, the United States and the maritime industry,” according to the IMO.

IMO on Wednesday issued additional guidance to what it is calling an “evacuation” plan and noted that there are two routes for ships transiting the Strait. The northern route, close to the Iranian shoreline, is controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran while the southern route, along the Oman coastline, is coordinated with U.S. authorities.

The southern route is clear of mines and is the preferred route, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.

Regardless of which route ships prefer, IMO is cautioning them to “remain in their current position and await further instructions.”

Vessels have to wait to “allow safe sequencing, avoid congestion, and mitigate risks related to mines and degraded navigation conditions,” IMO added. “Movements will only begin once vessels are contacted through the coordinated mechanism involving IMO, UKMTO, and MICA Center, followed by coastal State coordination.”

As for current mine clearance operations, CENTCOM would not offer details about how they are being carried out.

“I won’t go into specifics for operational security reasons,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM’s spokesman, told us Wednesday morning. “We’ve been at this for a number of weeks and we’re making progress, as demonstrated by the safe passage currently available to commercial vessels and enabling traffic flow to pick up.”

All this comes after tensions surrounding the Strait erupted again last week, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying it was being closed again after Israeli attacks on Lebanon and CENTCOM maintaining it was open.

Trump on Wednesday took to Truth Social to dispel what he claims are inaccurate media accounts about the Strait.

“Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are ‘NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ,’” Trump proclaimed. “If this is false information, negotiations would end, immediately!”

Trump: Iran has informed the U.S. that, despite troublemaking Fake News reporting to the contrary, there are “NO TOLLS, NO INSURANCE COSTS, & NO OTHER CHARGES OF ANY KIND BEING SOUGHT OR RECEIVED BY IRAN ON SHIPS TRAVELING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.” If this is false information,… pic.twitter.com/3bYur1t71o

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) June 24, 2026

TWZ cannot independently confirm any of these statements; however, ship tracking organizations on Wednesday say commercial vessels have been transiting the Strait at increasing rates, though far from what they were before the war.

“Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded sharply across two consecutive weekends, pointing to a clear shift in traffic patterns through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints,” the MarineTraffic website stated on X Wednesday. “According to #MarineTraffic data and Kpler data, confirmed crossings rose from 32 vessels between 12–14 June to 93 vessels between 19–21 June, an increase of 61 crossings week-on-week.”

The biggest change came on Saturday, MarineTraffic noted, “when crossings jumped from 3 to 42 compared with the previous weekend. The recovery has been supported by recent diplomatic developments and a temporary OFAC general license, which has helped ease immediate compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits until 21 August.”

When it comes to oil, at least 20 tankers carrying 35 million barrels have exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. and Iran agreed to open the sea lane, according to data provided by Kpler.

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains active, but recovery stays cautious

Confirmed vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained steady on 23 June, with 31 verified crossings recorded across commercial and energy-linked vessels. According to #MarineTraffic data, west-to-east… pic.twitter.com/dz3o9OWRJx

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) June 24, 2026

Still, two major shipping companies we spoke with remain cautious about transiting the Strait.

Maersk referred us to a statement they gave TWZ last week saying that the announcement about the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding “is a welcome and positive development, but publicly available details are still limited, and it is too early to assess how it will impact logistics and maritime operations in the Middle East. At this stage, there are no changes to our operations in the region.”

On Wednesday, a company spokesman told us Maersk still has five ships stuck in the Persian Gulf.

Hapag-Lloyd is also taking a wait-and-see attitude.

“Our vessels are ready for a transit, but we will only sail through the Strait of Hormuz when it is safe to do so,” a company spokesperson told us, declining to say how many ships it still has in the Gulf.

Meanwhile, the Royal Navy’s RFA Lyme Bay and two German warships have transited the Red Sea in case they are needed to help remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz. The Lyme Bay, “now configured as an Afloat Forward Support Base for mine countermeasures, transited the Suez Canal on 19th June and then passed south through the Red Sea,” the Royal Navy (RN) noted. 

The ship carries uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) with towed sonar arrays and AI automatic target recognition that can “filter and refine vast amounts of data allowing operators to speed up the process of classifying and neutralizing mines,” according to the RN.

Lyme Bay also has “Video Ray Defender-Viper portable mine disposal submersibles, capable of locating, identifying and destroying mines.”

There are also mine warfare, diving and explosive ordnance disposal specialists on board to assist the mine clearance mission.

Lyme Bay was accompanied by the German command and support ship FGS Mosel and minehunter FGS Fulda.

However, those vessels “detached from the task group on 23 June to head for Djibouti for resupply and further preparation,” according to Navy Lookout, an independent publication focusing on the Royal Navy. “They currently operate under the European Union mission Operation Aspides, which has the sole aim of defending merchant shipping against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.”

We have reached out to the German Bundeswehr and Aspides for additional insights.

Amid the renewed flow of traffic through the Strait, oil prices have plummeted in recent days. As of Wednesday morning, Brent Crude was trading at just under $74 a barrel, according to OilPrice.com. That’s down from a high of more than $114 per barrel at the height of U.S.-Iran tensions in early May.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels last week, pushing stockpiles to 412.1 million barrels—7% below the five-year average. Despite the bullish draw, oil prices fell sharply as traders focused on easing Middle East supply risks. #Oil #CrudeOil #EIA…

— OilPrice.com (@OilandEnergy) June 24, 2026

How long oil prices continue to fall is an open question as the U.S. and Iran continue to express disagreements over the terms of a final Iran-U.S. peace deal following the MoU signed last week.

In addition to the aforementioned confusion over the status of the Strait, there is ongoing discord over whether Iran has agreed to allow inspection of its nuclear facilities. Trump and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) both say Iran has agreed to let inspectors in while the Iranians say that isn’t the case.

President Trump said Iran agreed that it will “never have a nuclear weapon” during his visit to a Pennsylvania’s Mack Truck facility on Tuesday. He also said “19 million barrels of oil flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz” on Monday, which he said is “the most oil in the history of… pic.twitter.com/ycsILtZRpq

— CBS News (@CBSNews) June 23, 2026

Meanwhile, both sides have issued bellicose threats against the other as the often acrimonious negotiations for what is essentially an extension of the ceasefire continue. 

As we have noted in the past, there is tremendous global and domestic pressure on Trump not to resume the war. The world economy is only beginning to recover from rising oil prices while Trump’s Republican party faces a midterm election in November made challenging by the unpopularity of this conflict. In addition, forces have now been deployed for many months and will have to be rotated out in the coming weeks.

Regardless, while getting vessels finally out of the Persian Gulf is still a priority, when robust two-way transits will return is still unclear, which will be critical to stabilizing the situation economically and geopolitically.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Following the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, Tehran had effectively closed off the strait, leaving vessels stuck. 

The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) has begun evacuating more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the Strait of Hormuz following the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran to end the US-Israel war on Iran.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said in a statement on Tuesday that the operation would be carried out in “close cooperation with Iran, Oman, all other coastal states in the region, the United States and the maritime industry”.

“We have secured the necessary safety guarantees and have thoroughly verified the conditions for safe navigation to support these operations,” he said.

Following the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, Tehran had effectively closed off the strait, leaving vessels stuck on the waterway.

But shipping traffic has increased since the signing of the agreement last week, with the Kpler shipping intelligence agency reporting that at least 36 commercial vessels passed through the strait on Monday, a record level of traffic since the war began.

According to Oman’s Defence Ministry, the evacuation process under the IMO plan, which has been under discussion for months, will be phased.

“Given the elevated risk of collision in the current environment, a gradual and controlled evacuation of vessel traffic is required,” it said.

Denmark announced on Tuesday that it will join an international maritime mission set up by France and Britain to help reopen the crucial waterway.

Reporting from the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi explained that talks between the US and Iran on a peace deal have gotten “a little bit better”.

“Today, we’ve got a joint statement by the Omani and Iranian sides saying they are talking about mechanisms to reopen trade through the Strait of Hormuz. This is a positive indication,” he said.

“However, it remains to be seen how long it’s going to take for the strait to reopen, and until then, we see hundreds of ships stranded on both sides of Hormuz.”

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday and reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to charge tolls in the strait under any final deal with the US.

“It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway,” he said, adding that he believed “all the countries in this region would agree”.

Tehran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, had earlier insisted the Strait of Hormuz “will never return” to the pre-war status quo, despite the foes agreeing to set up communication lines to keep it open.

The UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to evacuate more than 11,000 sailors who have been stranded in the Gulf because of the US-Israel war against Iran.

IMO secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said the “large-scale operation” would be carried out in cooperation with Iran, Oman, the US, other coastal states in the region and the maritime industry.

“We have secured the necessary safety guarantees and have thoroughly verified the conditions for safe navigation to support these operations,” he added.

An interim deal was signed last week to end the conflict, but both the US and Iran continue to clash on details of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

The US has said the MoU includes guarantees that Iran’s nuclear weapons programme will come under inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

US President Donald Trump posted on social media on Tuesday: “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!). This will insure ‘Nuclear Honesty.'”

Shortly before Trump’s post, Iran said the UN watchdog would not be able to inspect nuclear sites bombed by the US and Israel last year.

In response, a US official said: “the Iranians have agreed to robust IAEA inspections of the remains of their nuclear weapons programme. The Iranian regime will say what they have to say for their domestic audience.”

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said during a visit to Pakistan on Tuesday that Iran “will never negotiate with anyone, under any circumstances, ever, about our defensive capabilities”.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a tour of the Gulf on Tuesday in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and will also visit Kuwait and Bahrain – which both host US military bases – to discuss the deal with Tehran.

The secretary of state warned on Tuesday that no country is allowed to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been pushing to charge ships passing through.

“It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law,” he said as he arrived in the UAE.

“I don’t think we have anybody to convince around here in that regard. I think all the countries in this region would agree with us.”

Iran’s chief negotiator said the Strait will never return to the way it was before the war, but also said Iran will fully comply with international law. He spoke while on his way back from first round talks with the US in Switzerland.

Ship tracking data shows sharp fall in transits as US and Iranian officials hold talks to save fragile peace framework.

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has plunged following Iran’s announcement that it has closed the waterway once again over Israel’s strikes on Lebanon, according to ship tracking data.

A total of 12 vessels crossed the strait on Sunday, down from 35 transits the previous day, an analysis by maritime intelligence company Windward showed on Sunday.

Five of eight vessels entering the strait had their Automatic Identification Systems turned off, according to Windward.

“The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait,” Windward said in a post on X.

Maritime traffic in the strait had been showing signs of recovery since US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday signed a memorandum of understanding on ending the US-Israel war on Iran.

Twenty-five vessels transited the strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, according to data from maritime intelligence provider Kpler.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Saturday declared the waterway shut, citing Israeli “crimes” in Lebanon and the failure of the US to maintain a ceasefire in the country.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) on Saturday denied that Iran had closed the strait, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas supplies, saying that safe passage through the waterway remained “intact”, with 55 merchant ships transiting that day.

The cause of the discrepancy between the transit figures provided by CENTCOM and commercial ship tracking providers is unclear.

US and Iranian negotiators on Sunday held make-or-break talks in Switzerland as the conflict in Lebanon threatened to derail efforts to turn their 60-day ceasefire extension into a permanent peace deal.

In a briefing to Iranian media after the talks, Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the sides had discussed the safe passage of ships through the strait, and “a mechanism was set up, which is important”.

Despite renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran and signs of slowing traffic in the strait, oil prices moved lower on Monday morning in Asia.

Brent crude, the primary international benchmark, was down about 0.9 percent as of 01:30 GMT, at just below $80 a barrel.

Asia’s major stock markets opened higher, with key indices in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan making substantial gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 and Seoul’s Kospi were up 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, while the Taiex in Taipei surged 2.6 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the rally, dipping 0.7 percent.

Iranian armed forces say they’ve closed the Strait of Hormuz after Israeli attacks on Lebanon – just days after an agreement with the US reopen it.

Disruption to the crucial waterway has had a huge economic impact worldwide.

So, what happens next?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Ian Ralby — Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Associate Fellow with the International Law Programme at Chatham House

Mehran Kamrava — Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar and Head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

Stavros Karamperidis — Associate Professor in Maritime Economics and Head of the Maritime Transport Research Group at the University of Plymouth

However, after Iran’s statement, US Central Command (Centcom) spokesperson Tim Hawkins said “traffic continues to flow”. He said US forces were “monitoring the situation to ensure this remains the case”, adding that “Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz”.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged there will be no tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, unless they are collected by his own country.

Trump’s statement, made in a Saturday afternoon post on Truth Social, is the latest sign that a recently signed memorandum of understanding (MOU) may be unravelling.

“There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired,” Trump wrote, “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America.”

Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, Iran has successfully used the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point, closing the strategic waterway to traffic.

But under the terms of Wednesday’s ceasefire memorandum, the strait is supposed to reopen for an interim period of 60 days. During that time, Iran is barred from charging vessels for passage.

On Saturday, however, Iran’s joint military command said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, citing a “clear breach” of the memorandum’s commitments.

US Central Command (CENTCOM), the agency that oversees military operations in the region, denied that report and maintained that the traffic continues to flow through the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a flashpoint in the conflict between the US and Iran. Nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas is transported through the strait, as well as about 30 percent of the global fertiliser trade.

Closure of the strait has caused global fuel costs to soar and has tested agricultural sectors across the world.

Trump had responded to Iran’s chokehold over the strait by imposing a US naval blockade on Iran’s ports in the region.

But that naval blockade was lifted under the terms of Wednesday’s memorandum. The deal also paused fighting on all fronts in the regional conflict, including in Lebanon.

The memorandum, though, was not intended as a long-term deal. It serves as a launching point for negotiations on key issues, including the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

Several points of divergence also went unaddressed in the memorandum. Nowhere does the memo say that future tolls cannot be collected from the strait after the 60-day period expires.

Before the war, there was no charge for passage through the strait. Trump himself said in an interview with The New York Times that the waterway should remain “permanently toll-free”.

But he appeared to reverse course in Saturday’s post, once again floating the possibility that the US could extract tolls in the strait, while barring Iran from doing so.

No fees should be levied, Trump wrote, “unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed”.

He explained that such a charge would compensate the US “for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs”.

Trump used similar language in his New York Times interview earlier this week, floating the US becoming “the guardian of the Middle East” in exchange for 20 percent of its revenue.

Saturday’s post is not the first time Trump has mused about the US imposing tolls in the strait, either.

In April, for instance, he discussed the idea with reporters, saying, “What about us charging tolls? I’d rather do that than let them have them. Why shouldn’t we? We’re the winner. We won.”

There has been no indication that Trump’s plans have been officially presented to countries in the region, many of whom have struck a careful balance in their dealings with both the US and Iran during the war.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have repeatedly said they will not rule out imposing tolls in the strait, framing the issue as a matter of sovereignty and regional negotiation. The strait sits between Iran and Oman.

Further discussions are expected on the matter in the coming weeks.

But such negotiations have been thrown into jeopardy amid ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon, which threaten to violate Wednesday’s ceasefire memorandum.

Iran claimed that Saturday’s closure of the strait was a result of new Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, which killed dozens of people after the ceasefire was announced.

Iranian officials have also said that any upcoming talks should focus on proper implementation of the initial memorandum, and that the 60-day negotiating period stipulated in Wednesday’s deal would begin after that was settled.

Pakistan, a top mediator between the US and Iran, has said that follow-up talks are set to begin in Switzerland on Sunday.

Switzerland’s Federal Department of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that an Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, has already arrived for the negotiations.

On the US side, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance are expected to attend.

Vance departed for Switzerland late Saturday.