send

A potentially very strong El Niño is emerging as a major risk for global agricultural markets, threatening to disrupt rainfall, raise temperatures and expose some of the world’s most important tropical crops to severe weather stress.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026 to 2027. For commodity markets, the concern is not simply that El Niño causes drought. Its effects vary sharply by region, meaning excessive rainfall in one major producing country can occur alongside extreme dryness in another.

That makes the phenomenon particularly important for soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee and sugar, whose production is concentrated in climate sensitive tropical regions.

Why El Niño matters for commodity markets

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific become unusually warm as trade winds weaken. The pattern generally lasts between nine and 12 months and can alter global temperature and rainfall patterns.

For farmers, the problem is timing. Crops can be damaged not only by drought but also by excessive rainfall, heat, fungal disease and disrupted flowering or harvesting cycles.

This year’s potential El Niño also arrives at an unusually difficult moment for agricultural producers. Farmers are already dealing with higher fertiliser and diesel costs linked to the U.S. Israeli war on Iran. Another major weather shock could therefore amplify existing production pressures.

Historically, strong El Niño episodes have been associated with substantial increases in soft commodity prices. But the effects differ considerably between crops.

Cocoa faces one of the clearest risks

Cocoa appears particularly vulnerable because production is heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.

Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for roughly half of global cocoa production, while Ecuador is the third largest producer. All three can experience significant El Niño related weather disruptions.

Every strong El Niño over the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, according to WisdomTree.

The previous El Niño illustrates why the relationship is more complicated than simply associating the phenomenon with drought. During the initial phase of the 2023 to 2024 event, West Africa experienced unusually heavy rainfall. Excess moisture contributed to fungal disease affecting cocoa trees.

Conditions subsequently shifted toward intense heat and unusually dry Harmattan winds. Trees weakened by disease struggled to flower, further damaging production.

That sequence demonstrates the real danger for cocoa: El Niño can produce multiple weather shocks during the same crop cycle.

The consequences can quickly reach global consumers. Cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed, eventually exceeding $12,000 per metric ton.

A very strong El Niño could therefore revive fears of another supply deficit if weather conditions deteriorate across major growing regions.

Coffee faces a divided outlook

Coffee presents a more complicated picture because the world’s two major varieties are concentrated in different regions.

Robusta coffee is particularly exposed to El Niño because Vietnam and Indonesia, which together account for about half of global robusta production, typically experience higher temperatures and reduced rainfall under the weather pattern.

The timing is especially important. Dry conditions can hit these countries during crop development, with the consequences becoming visible during harvesting later in the year.

Citi analysts warned that dryness in Vietnam and Indonesia could significantly reduce robusta yields.

Arabica coffee presents a different picture.

Brazil, responsible for nearly half of global arabica production, can initially benefit from warmer conditions because they reduce the risk of damaging winter frosts.

But that advantage could prove temporary. El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Brazilian coffee growing regions later in the year, when the next crop is developing.

That creates the possibility of a delayed supply shock in 2027.

Sugar could be the exception

Sugar demonstrates why El Niño does not automatically translate into a bullish commodity market.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, can experience heavier rainfall during the second half of the year. Excessive rain can disrupt harvesting and affect sugar quality.

India and Thailand face the opposite problem. El Niño generally reduces rainfall during the summer monsoon, creating additional pressure on production.

India is already expecting its lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years, at around 90% of the long-term average. Hedgepoint estimates that even a moderate El Niño could reduce Indian sugar production by around 1 million metric tons.

Yet there is an important counterweight.

El Niño’s wetter conditions in Brazil could ultimately support the country’s following sugar crop. Since Brazil accounts for roughly half of global sugar exports, stronger Brazilian production could offset losses elsewhere.

That means sugar may not experience the same sustained price pressure as cocoa or robusta coffee.

The bigger problem is climate uncertainty

The most important market implication is not simply whether El Niño becomes “very strong.” It is where its effects materialise and when.

Agricultural markets operate on highly specific growing cycles. Rain arriving at the wrong stage can be just as damaging as drought. Excessive rainfall can create disease, while heat can interfere with flowering and crop development.

Climate change further complicates the picture.

The relationship between El Niño and agricultural weather is becoming harder to interpret because rising global temperatures can intensify the consequences of existing climate patterns. A weather event that might previously have produced manageable stress can now occur against a much hotter baseline.

This means commodity traders increasingly have to price not just the probability of El Niño, but the interaction between El Niño, climate change and already strained agricultural supply chains.

What could happen to prices?

The clearest risk is concentrated in cocoa and robusta coffee, where production is particularly exposed to adverse conditions in major growing countries.

Cocoa has perhaps the greatest vulnerability because West Africa dominates global supply and has already experienced serious weather related production problems. Another major disruption could quickly tighten inventories and push prices higher.

Robusta coffee faces a similar risk if drought develops across Vietnam and Indonesia.

Sugar is more balanced. Production losses in India and Thailand could be partly or potentially substantially offset by improved Brazilian conditions for the following crop.

The broader lesson is that El Niño is not a uniform commodity shock. It redistributes weather risks across producing regions, creating winners and losers within the same market.

Why consumers should care

The effects will ultimately extend beyond commodity exchanges.

Higher cocoa prices can increase chocolate production costs. Coffee shortages can raise prices for roasters and consumers, while sugar disruptions can affect everything from beverages to processed foods.

And because agricultural markets are interconnected, a weather shock in one producing region can encourage buyers to compete more aggressively for supplies elsewhere.

The potential super El Niño therefore arrives at a particularly sensitive moment for global food markets.

If forecasts prove correct, the next several months could test whether commodity markets have adequately priced the risks of increasingly volatile weather.

The real threat is not El Niño alone. It is El Niño hitting an agricultural system already under pressure from rising costs, concentrated production and a changing climate.

With information from Reuters.

Willson Contreras and Romy Gonzalez homered to back the superb pitching of Sonny Gray, who gave up one run and four hits in six innings of the Boston Red Sox’s 8-1 win over the Angels on Saturday night at Angel Stadium.

Wilyer Abreu added a two-run double, and relievers Jovani Morán, Greg Weissert and Alec Gamboa combined for three hitless innings for the Red Sox (39-48), who have won seven of nine games. The Angels (36-54) have lost five straight and 11 of 17 since June 17.

Gray (10-1) induced two of Boston’s three double-play grounders, struck out seven and walked one. The 36-year-old right-hander has six straight quality starts since May 30, a stretch in which he’s gone 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA.

Though he leads the American League in wins and ranks second with a 2.61 ERA, Gray was not named to the AL All-Star team Saturday.

Angels starter Sam Aldegheri (3-4) walked two ahead of Contreras’ 19th homer, a 421-foot blast to left-center that gave Boston a 3-0 lead in the first.

Josh Lowe’s one-out homer pulled the Angels to within 3-1 in the second. Jo Adell walked, and Wade Meckler singled, but Gray struck out Donovan Walton and Tyler Heineman to escape the jam.

Aldegheri did not give up a hit in the second, third and fourth, but with his pitch count at 88, he was pulled in favor of left-hander Samy Natera Jr., who gave up one run in his first nine big-league games.

Anthony Seigler led off the fifth with a double, Ceddanne Rafaela walked, and Abreu slammed a two-run double off the right-field wall for a 5-1 lead.

Gonzalez, robbed of a potential first-inning homer when Adell made a leaping catch of his drive above the wall in right, followed with a towering, 368-foot fly that cleared the short left-field wall for his first homer of the season and a 7-1 lead. Rafaela’s RBI single in the eighth made it 8-1.

Up next: Red Sox LHP Ranger Suarez (4-3, 2.94 ERA) will oppose Angels RHP Ryan Johnson (1-3, 7.40) in Sunday night’s series finale.

June 28 (UPI) — Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said Sunday he plans to send housing affordability legislation to President Donald Trump for a signature Monday despite his refusal to sign the package last week.

In an appearance on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Johnson said he believes Trump will sign the legislation.

“I’m going to send the bill over to him Monday, and it will become law,” Johnson said.

“I certainly want him to take the biggest, boldest marker that he has and do that big Trump signature proudly on that legislation because we’re delivering for the people, and that’s what he wants to do.”

Both chambers of Congress overwhelmingly voted in favor of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act last week. The legislation seeks to lower housing costs, expand homeownership access, and limit corporate and institutional ownership for rental purposes.

The bill includes 60 pieces of legislation that would also seek to ease bureaucracy to hasten housing development, modernize federal housing programs and banking regulations, and incentivize local governments to prioritize housing.

The non-profit National Low Income Housing Coalition said the United States is facing a shortage of 7.2 million affordable units for low-income renters, resulting in a housing crisis in every state.

The House voted 358-32 and the Senate voted 85-5 in favor of the bill.

Trump was originally scheduled to sign the legislation Wednesday, but he canceled those plans, saying he won’t sign housing legislation until lawmakers approve the SAVE America voting bill.

There haven’t been enough votes to pass the legislation, which would require people to prove their citizenship before they can register to vote. Opponents to the law say it would disenfranchise millions of legitimate voters.

In an appearance Sunday on NewsNation‘s The Hill Sunday, Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., said he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump doesn’t sign the housing legislation.

“I don’t know with this president, because he’s said that he doesn’t care about rising costs,” Subramanyam said.

“He said … if he doesn’t have a housing problem and his friends don’t have [a] problem with housing, then it doesn’t matter to him. So I actually wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t sign it.”

The new Hollywood adaptation of Homer’s epic work The Odyssey, released next month, is expected to give a huge tourism boost to Greece this summer. We’d love to hear about your favourite travel experiences in Greece, whether it’s island hopping, exploring antiquities in Athens, trekking in the Peloponnese or watching the sun set into the Aegean from the perfect beachfront taverna.

The best tip of the week, chosen by Tom Hall of Lonely Planet, wins a £200 voucher to stay at a Coolstays property – the company has more than 3,000 worldwide. The best tips will appear in the Guardian Travel section and website.

Keep your tip to about 100 words

If you have a relevant photo, do send it in – but it’s your words we will be judging for the competition.

We’re sorry, but for legal reasons you must be a UK resident to enter this competition.

The 52 clubs involved have outlined in the letter an agenda they hope to discuss at the meeting with the FA.

Among the issues they raise are:

The letter asks that the FA is bound by a notice period to agree the meeting and confirm an agenda, which is believed to be between seven and 14 working days.

Anthony Shaw, operations manager at Hashtag United FC, pulled the 52 clubs together and signed the letter on their behalf.

All clubs were listed. Among them were Middlesbrough, Derby County, Halifax, Doncaster Belles and Hull City.

Former Women’s National League chair Carol West has strongly opposed the proposals, writing on social media: “The damage being done here should not be underestimated. I can’t quite believe it’s being allowed to happen.

“The overriding issue with all of this is that the vast majority of clubs do not want PGA (Professional Game Academy) teams in their league but have repeatedly been denied their democratic right to vote to formalise this once and for all.

“Instead, they’ve been told it’s happening regardless which isn’t right.”

June 6 (UPI) — Democrat Xavier Becerra is advancing to the November election in the California governor’s race, while Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer battle for the second spot.

California’s primary is nonpartisan, so the top two finishers advance, regardless of party.

If elected, Becerra, 68, would be California’s first Latino governor since 1875. The state’s population is about 41% Latino.

“The people of the great state of California, in the greatest nation on Earth, have spoken — loudly and proudly,” Becerra said in a statement. “We will not be bought. We will not be bullied. And we are never backing down.”

Becerra was the U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary under President Joe Biden and is a former California attorney general.

No Republican has won statewide office since 2006. Hilton has also been endorsed by President Donald Trump, who is unpopular in the state. California Gov. Gavin Newsom can’t run for re-election because of term limits.

The vote count has taken several days because California has mail-in voting. It’s not unusual for California’s elections to take a long time to count. Trump-endorsed Hilton led early, but it’s likely that’s because Republicans voted early, while Democrats waited because they had many more contenders from which to choose, The New York Times reported.

Hilton, 56, is a British-born former Fox News host who once worked for Prime Minister David Cameron. Steyer, 68, is a New York-born billionaire philanthropist and climate activist who ran for president in 2020.

On Friday, the Department of Justice sent a federal prosecutor to observe ballot counting in Los Angeles after Trump claimed that the count was being rigged by Democrats.

The Los Angeles County registrar-recorder said in a statement Friday: “Our office was notified late yesterday that the U.S. attorney’s office would send an assistant U.S. attorney to the Ballot Processing Center to observe ballot processing activities.”

“The individual arrived this morning, was provided an overview of the public observation program and participated in a walkthrough of the ballot processing operations,” spokesperson Mike Sanchez said in an email to CNN.

Sanchez noted that ballot processing is open to the public.

California law gives election officials 30 days to complete the counting and certification process, California Secretary of State Shirley Weber said in a statement.

“Our commitment is immediate: in California, every ballot is counted properly and every ballot is accounted for,” Weber said.

BUENOS AIRES, June 5 (UPI) — Argentine retirees have become one of the groups hardest hit by President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity measures, which have pushed a growing number of older adults back into the workforce to supplement incomes that no longer cover the cost of living.

Over the past two years, the number of employed Argentines age 65 and older increased 12.7%, sociologist Candelaria Rueda, a researcher at the Argentina Grande Institute, told UPI.

The trend has had a particularly strong impact on women. Labor force participation among people older than 65 increased 14.5% for women, nearly four percentage points higher than the 10.8% increase recorded among men, according to a report by the think tank based on official data from the National Institute of Statistics and Census, known as INDEC.

One of those women is Patricia Guscione, 63. She worked as a teacher for decades and retired in 2021 at age 60, the legal retirement age for women in Argentina.

But rising living costs gradually eroded the value of her pension, leaving her unable to cover household expenses. When a call for retired teachers was issued in 2024, she applied. Today, she is back teaching in public schools.

“I lived on my pension for three years, but the reality is that it lost so much value that there came a point when I could no longer make it to the end of the month. I still have two teenage children who depend on me,” she told UPI.

Rueda said inflation remains a defining factor in Argentina’s economy and “causes incomes to lose value at an unusually rapid pace.”

“In addition, there has been a clear political decision to deregulate prices, which has led private health insurance premiums to rise 400% over the past two years,” she said.

At the center of the issue is Argentina’s minimum pension, the basic benefit received by more than half of the country’s retirees. It currently totals 450,300 Argentine pesos per month, or about $320. That includes a government assistance bonus that has remained frozen since early 2024.

Because the supplement has not been adjusted, the purchasing power of the minimum pension has fallen by nearly 10% compared with late 2023.

At the same time, food prices have continued to rise sharply, further reducing retirees’ spending power. Economic pressures have also intensified following cuts to free prescription drug coverage provided through the Comprehensive Medical Care Program, known as PAMI, Argentina’s main public healthcare system for retirees and pensioners.

Mario Perelli, 70, spent most of his career as an accountant, but now drives for ride-shareing platforms to supplement his income.

“I had never seen an economic situation like the one we are living through now. It keeps getting harder. I thought I had completed my working years and that retirement would allow me to enjoy life, travel and rest. Instead, I ended up driving for an app because I need to help support my household,” he said.

Juan Gómez, 76, faces a similar reality. After years working at an accounting firm, he now work for Uber and drives a taxi.

“I lived through different economic periods, and there were difficult moments under other governments, but this is terrible. I see it in retail stores, butcher shops, auto parts stores and oil-change businesses. There are hardly any customers. I hope things can be resolved and that we can move forward,” he said.

Gala Díaz Langou, executive director of the International Panel on Social Progress, linked the crisis to public spending cuts implemented by the current administration.

“In 2024, which was the year of the deepest adjustment, 19% of fiscal spending cuts were applied to the pension system,” she told UPI.

She also pointed to the continued freeze on the bonus supplement for lower pensions and the end of a program that allowed workers who had not completed the legally required 30 years of contributions to qualify for retirement benefits.

The trend of older adults extending their working lives is not limited to Argentina. It has become a regional phenomenon as Latin America faces a rapid demographic transition, lower levels of economic development and weaker social protection systems.

According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, employment among older adults is increasing across much of the region because pensions are insufficient to cover basic living expenses.

“As a result, employment among retirees functions as a refuge from the shortcomings of the system rather than a choice. When someone who contributed for decades ends up cleaning houses at age 82 or selling goods on the street, what that reflects is a protection system that failed to sustain the old age it helped create,” the commission said.

Carlos Román, executive director of SeniorLab UC, an aging innovation laboratory at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, told UPI that 1 in 4 older adults in Latin America was part of the labor force in 2024.

He said the trend is particularly visible in Chile among older age groups, where a significant share of people who have already reached retirement age continue working.

For Román, the phenomenon raises two key questions: Under what conditions do older adults work and what drives them to remain economically active?

Regarding working conditions, he warned that labor informality rises sharply with age.

“Labor informality does not decline over time. It accelerates, rising from 27.7% among people ages 60 to 64 to nearly 48% in the next age group and exceeding 60% among those older than 70,” he said.

He added that the impact is uneven across social groups.

“Among the poorest women ages 65 to 69, nearly 9 out of 10 work without a contract or pension coverage. About half of older adults working informally are self-employed workers without access to social protection,” he said.

While some older adults continue working because they are living longer and want to remain active, Román said “the evidence shows that, in most cases, the primary reason is economic necessity.”

He contended that the trend reflects a deeper structural problem that goes beyond national circumstances.

“Aging arrived in Latin America before the region built the economic model and social protection system capable of supporting it,” he said. “Economists often summarize this reality with a phrase that has become common in regional discussions: We will grow old before we grow rich.”

He said the region’s long-term challenge is to ensure that longer life expectancy does not translate into more years of economic insecurity and precarious living conditions.

Environmental activists in Rome built a mock rocket with caricatures of Giorgia Meloni and Donald Trump, calling for ‘fascists’ to be launched to another planet. The protest condemned government inaction on climate change and the global rise of authoritarian politics.