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Renoir art heist suspects were planning ‘imminent’ second robbery, prosecutors say.

Two paintings by the impressionist master Renoir which were stolen from a French museum last month have been found damaged behind a false wall in a private home after police made several arrests ahead of what prosecutors say was an imminent second heist.

Marseille prosecutor Nicolas Bessone said six suspects were arrested on Wednesday after authorities discovered they were planning to target the Fondation Maeght in Saint-Paul-de-Vence, home to one of Europe’s largest collections of modern art.

Bessone said the arrests were prompted by the “very strong suspicion that another heist was imminent”.

“We were very clearly looking at the repetition of a criminal scheme”, said Eric Antonetti, the head of the Alpes-Maritimes judicial police.

On September 8, thieves used an electric saw to cut through a fence to enter the Renoir Museum in Cagnes-sur-Mer on the French Riviera, according to investigators.

An alarm sounded and police officers arrived four minutes later, a swift response that “apparently caused the perpetrators to panic,” Bessone said.

The stolen works, “Madame Colonna Romano” and “Young Woman at the Well” by impressionist painter Pierre-Auguste Renoir, were valued at about 4.2m euros ($4.7m), Bessone said.

The thieves also attempted to steal two other Renoir paintings, “Madame Pichon” and “Coco Reading”, which depicts Renoir’s young ‌son ‌Claude. They abandoned them in the museum gardens while fleeing police.

“As they fled, they were unable to take all four paintings and abandoned two of them, which were later found in a protective sleeve,” he said.

Damaged and torn

The paintings were found hidden behind a false wall in a house on Friday. Both works were damaged and will need ⁠restoration. One of the paintings, “Madame Colonna Romano”, had been torn.

“These two paintings are not simply works of art. They are part of our city’s history,” Bryan Masson, the mayor of Cagnes-sur-Mer, near Nice, said on Friday. “Knowing they have been recovered is an immense relief.”

The recovery came almost exactly one month ⁠after the theft, following an investigation that used ⁠DNA evidence, mobile phone geolocation data and surveillance video.

The two key suspects include a 29-year-old, who was charged after investigators recovered DNA from a bag left behind during the getaway.

They ⁠were charged with organised theft and other offences. A third man, accused of hiding the paintings, was charged with organised handling of stolen goods.

A fourth suspect, who investigators say was approached about buying the artworks, was charged ‌with handling stolen goods and taking part in a criminal conspiracy.

Bessone said the suspects had denied planning a second museum raid, but he added that he did “not believe the principal suspect visited that ‌museum simply out of a love of art”.

Who: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
What: UEFA Champions League, matchday 2
Where: Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
When: Tuesday, October 13, at 9pm (19:00 GMT)
How to follow: Al Jazeera Sport will bring you all the build-up and live updates from 16:00 GMT.

Action in Europe’s premier club competition returns with a matchday two clash between in-form La Liga side Atletico Madrid and Premier League strugglers Manchester United.

There are contrasting moods in the camps ahead of Tuesday’s fixture in the Spanish capital.

Atletico are challenging Barcelona for the top spot in Spain’s top flight, while Man United are in the bottom half of England’s Premier League, several places below all their traditional rivals.

Left winger Alex Baena and striker Jonathan David have been running the show for Atletico, while playmaker Bruno Fernandes and marksman Bryan Mbeumo are trying to keep United’s hopes alive of turning things around.

Atletico and Man United are set to clash for only the fifth time in history and the third in the Champions League.

Here’s all you need to know about the match:

How have Atletico Madrid played this season?

Atletico have made a promising start to the 2026-27 La Liga season, as they sit in second place, five points adrift of leaders and title holders, Barcelona.

Of the eight league games they have played, Atletico have won six, drawn one and lost one.

One of those results included a feisty 2-1 derby win over giants Real Madrid.

How have Manchester United played this season?

United are experiencing one of their worst starts to a league campaign.

They are 12th in the Premier League standings with six points, having won only one of six matches (D3 L2).

Those defeats also include a controversial 1-0 loss to their bitter rivals, Manchester City.

What happened in the first round of Champions League matches?

Atletico suffered a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield in their first UCL match of the season, while Man United thrashed Azerbaijani club Sabah 4-0 in their campaign opener.

That keeps Atletico 25th and Man United fourth in the league phase of this year’s Champions League.

The top eight teams at the end of the league phase qualify directly to the knockout rounds.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: Predictions

Opta’s supercomputer has given Atletico a 48.5 percent probability of victory, while Man United have a 27.2 percent chance and a draw is estimated at a likelihood of 24.3 percent.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: Head-to-head

• Matches: 4
• Atletico wins: 2
• Man United wins: 0
• Draws: 2

Encounters:

• March 15, 2022: Manchester United 0-1 Atletico Madrid (Champions League)
• February 23, 2022: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Manchester United (Champions League)
• November 06, 1991: Manchester United 1-1 Atletico Madrid (UEFA European Cup Winners Cup)
• October 23, 1991: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Manchester United (UEFA European Cup Winners Cup)

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: Form guide

(Last five matches across all competitions, latest match first)

Atletico Madrid: W-W-W-W-L

Manchester United: D-D-L-L-W

Who are the top players to watch?

Alex Baena and Jonathan David (Atletico): Baena is in good form for club and country, with four goals and two assists for Atletico this season. Further up the pitch, centre-forward David has three goals and two assists.

Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo (Man United): Midfielder Fernandes, the United captain, has been the team’s top scorer with four goals in all competitions, while the playmaker also has an assist. Forward Mbeumo, meanwhile, has three goals and an assist.

What have the coaches said?

Diego Simeone (Atletico):

On Julian Alvarez failing to find the net so far this season: “I think strikers with Julian’s characteristics always need goals, not just him. It’s true that beyond his finishing, he’s a team player, a player that can link very well, he can assist and he’s got many more tools than just goalscoring.”

On facing Man United: “The game will be long, it will be tough and we have to manage our efforts to compete well.”

Michael Carrick (Man United): 

On United’s poor form: “We’ve got to stay positive and keep doing the right things. We need to do better and we need more points, of course we do.”

On facing Atletico: “We’ve got big games coming up and are looking forward to Tuesday now. A fresh start, a fresh game and we will go there looking forward to the game.”

Did you know?

• Atleti are unbeaten in the four meetings between the sides (W2 D2). Their most recent encounters came in the 2021-22 Champions League round of 16, where they drew 1-1 in Madrid before winning 1-0 in Manchester.
• Atleti also dethroned United as European Cup Winners’ Cup holders in 1991-92, winning the second-round tie 4-1 on aggregate (3-0 home, 1-1 away).
• United have lost only one of their last 11 matches against Spanish opponents (W7 D3). They beat Athletic Bilbao 3-0 away and 4-1 at home in the last fixtures in the 2024-25 Europa League semifinals to make it three successive victories.
• United’s last 10 matches against Spanish opponents have produced 35 goals, an average of 3.5 per game.

Team news and predicted lineups

Atletico Madrid

Atletico have a fully fit squad.

Predicted starting XI:

Jan Oblak; Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, David Hancko; Marcos Llorente, Pablo Barrios, Koke, Giuliano Simeone; Kang-in Lee, Alex Baena; Julian Alvarez

Manchester United

As many as five United players are out with injuries. Those include Patrick Dorgu (hamstring), Benjamin Sesko (shin), Tom Heaton (abdomen), Manuel Ugarte (knee) and Matthijs de Ligt (back).

Predicted starting XI:

Senne Lammens; Noussair Mazraoui, Leny Yoro, Lisandro Martinez, Diogo Dalot; Youri Tielemans, Kobbie Mainoo; Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha; Marcus Rashford

Thousands of protesters have marched in New Delhi, demanding the resignation of India’s top election official over alleged misconduct during a voter roll revision.

The demonstrations on Monday marked the latest confrontation with authorities in the heavily fortified capital.

Opposition parties and supporters of the youth-led Cockroach Janta Party protest movement have taken to the streets in recent days, defying a strict security clampdown to demand the government stop deleting voters from the rolls and calling for the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

More than 133 million names have been removed from voter lists since last year, according to media reports. About 969 million people were eligible to vote in India’s 2024 polls.

Critics say the large-scale revision of electoral rolls could benefit Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Election Commission of India, which oversees the voting process in the world’s most populous nation, has denied any wrongdoing.

Authorities deployed thousands of security personnel across central Delhi for a third straight day, erecting heavy metal barricades and closing key metro stations.

Public attention has also focused on the police response, after a weekend in which thousands of protesters, including organisers, were detained, according to local media reports.

Most of those detained, including three top leaders of the Cockroach movement, have since been released.

Several journalists covering the protests said they were detained despite clearly displaying their press cards.

The demonstrations have become a major political challenge for Modi, drawing together opposition parties, student groups and activists angered by the voter roll revision.

Critics say the measure has disproportionately affected minorities, particularly Muslims.

Election authorities say the move was intended to eliminate duplicate, deceased and fraudulent names.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says renegotiating relationship with the EU could reverse some post-Brexit ‘damage’.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to push for closer relations with the European Union, confirming he will attend a bilateral summit in Brussels next month.

Addressing parliament on Monday, Burnham said parts of the trade deal agreed with the EU after the UK voted to leave in 2016 would be renegotiated.

Burnham said that the British public would be “the boss” at every stage of renegotiating Britain’s relationship with the EU and that he wanted “serious dialogue” about long-term ties.

He told members of parliament that his focus at the summit would be boosting growth in the economy and controlling illegal immigration.

Among the topics of discussion at November’s summit are cutting bureaucracy for British food exports and emissions trading, as well as a “new youth experience scheme” and deeper cooperation on immigration.

The prime minister, who came into office in July, said the agreements could reverse some of the “damage” done to the post-Brexit British economy.

He told MPs that Britain needed to “take a calm, clear-eyed look at the world as it is today”.

“Sticking to the status quo is not good enough,” he said, adding that “public opinion currently supports a pragmatic approach like the one I am suggesting”.

After his address, the leader of the opposition, Kemi Badenoch, said Burnham would be unable to secure a better deal as the EU was ” tough negotiators” and warned that he had already “shown his hand”.

Muslim governments backed the genocide case against Myanmar. They must now show that their commitment to the Rohingya goes beyond words.

The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has made Muslim solidarity central to how it presents itself. Nine years ago, Myanmar’s military massacred Rohingya civilians and drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. The persecution has not ended: the Rohingya remain stateless, face continuing violence and risk death while fleeing by sea. Throughout those years, the OIC has held summits and passed resolutions. Yet it has failed to protect them.

When I founded the Burma Human Rights Network 14 years ago, I believed that if we gathered evidence carefully and put it before institutions with the power to act, they would act. We have gathered testimony from survivors of massacres. We have documented the systematic destruction of Rohingya villages, the denial of their citizenship and the deliberate starvation of a people. Yet despite all this documentation, the situation facing the Rohingya has mostly grown worse. The International Court of Justice is expected to rule later this year on whether Myanmar’s actions constituted genocide.

I have sometimes asked myself whether a ruling could help stop the atrocities. The Rohingya survivors who gave evidence in The Hague relived the worst moments of their lives before international judges because they trusted that their testimony would matter. Many of them are still in Bangladesh, still in limbo, dependent on food assistance worth as little as $7 per person per month. One in every seven Rohingya who attempted sea crossings last year was reported dead or missing. They are unprotected, and governments that could do more have not done so.

People often ask me why we continue. I have never had a satisfying answer. What I know is that without a record of these atrocities, it becomes easier to deny they happened. I continue because, after hearing these accounts and seeing the evidence, I do not know how to walk away from it.

We have published evidence that governments did not want to confront, and we have called the atrocities what they are: genocide. If the court finds that Myanmar committed genocide, it would be the first time in the International Court of Justice’s 80-year history that a state has been held responsible for the crime.

I now address the OIC foreign ministers who will gather in Baghdad on October 17. The OIC backed this case, and your governments supported the effort to hold Myanmar accountable for its treatment of the Rohingya. Many Rohingya, along with many of us who work with them, took those commitments seriously. When the ruling arrives, I expect statements welcoming it and renewed promises of accountability. But another communiqué will not protect anyone. OIC governments should refuse to forcibly return Rohingya to Myanmar, protect Rohingya who reach their territory, sustain support for refugees in Bangladesh and agree on diplomatic and economic measures against those responsible for their persecution. These are choices your governments can make.

The way Rohingya are treated across the region is hard to reconcile with those commitments. Some governments that speak about the Rohingya in international meetings do not offer the same protection to those who arrive at their borders. A government cannot demand accountability from Myanmar and at the same time send people back into danger.

Bangladesh hosts 1.2 million Rohingya and has faced years of pressure to send them back. The OIC must also challenge abuses against the Rohingya by governments outside its membership. In 2025, according to testimony documented by Amnesty International, Indian authorities forced at least 40 Rohingya from a naval vessel into the Andaman Sea, leaving them to swim towards Myanmar. If the OIC says nothing when governments expose Rohingya to that kind of danger, those governments have little reason to change course.

To the Rohingya community organisations that kept working, the journalists who reported despite restrictions on access, those who helped survivors bring their testimony to international forums, and the advocates who stayed with this issue when official attention moved elsewhere, I can only say this: you did work that governments with armies and treasuries should never have left to you. The evidence you preserved is now part of the record.

The 57 governments meeting in Baghdad have repeatedly pledged solidarity with the Rohingya and supported efforts to hold Myanmar accountable for genocide. But solidarity means little if it does not translate into action. A judgment from The Hague will not protect the Rohingya by itself. What those governments do after it will show whether their support for this case has consequences beyond the courtroom.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities have signalled they intend to disrupt an Arab-operated and United States-assisted shuttle system that has enabled more energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Israel war on Iran.

With the US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports in place and sanctions tightening, Tehran has said it will pursue military and diplomatic efforts to put pressure on Washington to submit to its demands regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

This strategic waterway, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas flowed before the war, has been largely closed to shipping following Iranian attacks since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

But the US Navy has reportedly opened up a route so Gulf states can export oil and other commodities amid an energy crisis.

Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei responded on Sunday night, saying the shuttle system is now an explicit target for Tehran.

Rezaei claimed that the US Central Command, with the assistance of the United Arab Emirates military, was using smaller vessels to transfer oil to larger tankers. He claimed Iran had been striking five or six participating vessels nightly for weeks.

“You are smuggling, but the strait is under Iran’s control, and we manage it,” he asserted.

This appeared to be a taunt aimed at US President Donald Trump, who has hailed energy exports at times reaching pre-war levels over recent weeks.

Rezaei appeared to give the impression that Iran wants to have lasting authority over Hormuz, and promised a harsh response if Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure were attacked again.

His threats appeared aimed at Arab regional states, with a warning that digital infrastructure could be targeted. Rezaei threatened US-linked cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Rezaei also accused Saudi Arabia of helping the US move oil around Iran’s restrictions. But he did not threaten a direct attack against Riyadh – which is currently being targeted by Yemen’s Tehran-aligned Houthis.

In early September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened tankers at ports and anchorages in Kuwait and Bahrain, citing US attacks on Iranian tankers. It accused both countries of complicity through hosting US armed forces.

Iran has claimed the US accepted some of Tehran’s seven conditions for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. But Tehran insists that a deal will only materialise when all its demands are met.

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, said this reflects Tehran’s apparent assessment that it is under no immediate pressure to reach an agreement with the US since its pressure in the Hormuz has a global impact.

“The question, however, is whether Tehran is overestimating its ability to sustain this pressure, given the growing economic costs of the confrontation for Iran itself,” Azizi wrote on X.

Transfer system

The system involves very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and smaller vessels coordinating with the US military to load crude oil at Arab ports and use southern corridors near the coast of Oman to exit the strait.

Vessels often switch off their transponders and travel at night to minimise the risk of being targeted by the Iranians. After ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, some of the shuttles come back to load more.

Multiple vessels were targeted overnight Sunday to Monday, including two outbound tankers and one in anchorage near Oman’s port city of Sohar, where ship-to-ship transfers are allegedly being conducted.

Other vessels were targeted by projectiles last week, indicating that attacks have extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz to target the shuttle system.

The IRGC has also increasingly driven a narrative that naval mines, believed to have been planted across the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war, pose a serious threat to vessels attempting to navigate the waterway without coordinating with Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

The IRGC said three tankers suffered major damage over the weekend after being struck by mines. It also released footage of one ship ablaze that is said to have been struck by a mine, although the footage did not appear to show a mine going off.

‘Cascading impact’

The shuttle system has provided Arab national oil companies with a way out of Hormuz via the southern corridor near Oman.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a London-based senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, said this system has proven highly effective.

“Under international maritime law, which underpins 11 billion tonnes of seaborne trade annually, vessels have what’s called the right of transit passage,” Bockmann told Al Jazeera. “So, what Oman has done is allow vessels to go through under international maritime law, but they have had US military assistance.”

Tehran says shipping will be disrupted so long as the US continues its choking naval blockade against Iran, which has also stepped up its efforts to counter efforts by Arab states to export oil. At least 15 ships are believed to have been targeted in October so far, according to Winward.

“The more effective the route has become in facilitating the transport of oil and gas, the less leverage Iran has over Hormuz, and more attacks we are seeing on vessels that are using that southern corridor,” Bockmann said.

Windward’s data shows 31 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily in the final week of September. This was considerably lower than the 138 before the war.

Eighty-seven percent of the 45 ships targeted by Iran during the third quarter of 2026 were tankers.

Around 47 percent belonged to Gulf Arab energy companies’ national shipping fleets, Windward noted, and 93 percent of the strikes took place in the Strait of Hormuz. Most attacks targeted vessels transiting the southern corridor with their transponders turned off.

These attacks have contributed to a massive increase in freight costs. Freight represented 25-30 percent of Gulf crude’s cost, versus just 1 to 3 percent before the war, according to Windward. National oil companies have resorted to offering discounts of up to $35 per barrel below official selling prices.

The main reason for the rise is a shortage of tankers willing to make the dangerous crossing. Between 15 and 20 percent of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are tied up with an inefficient logistics system that relies on shuttle transfers, complicated by escalating attacks and exposure at loading ports and anchorages.

“This is having cascading impacts for all vessel classes on freight and values across the world,” Bockmann said.

Iran has offered to facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi group after a series of deadly attacks on the kingdom, raising questions about Tehran’s diplomatic calculations as fighting intensifies across the region.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, on Sunday, in their first publicly reported contact since the Iran-aligned Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The diplomatic outreach comes after strikes on Riyadh’s international airport over the weekend killed 14 people and wounded hundreds, while Saudi-backed forces continued their offensive against the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, in Yemen.

The talks also come against the backdrop of the wider US-Israel war on Iran, with Tehran potentially seeking to avoid being dragged into another confrontation.

“Tehran is an ally of Ansar Allah and has influence with the movement, although it does not control its decisions,” Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera.

“By offering to facilitate talks with Riyadh, Iran is positioning itself as an indispensable party to a broader regional settlement.”

So what discussions are happening between Riyadh and Tehran, and why is Iran offering to facilitate talks?

What did Iran and Saudi Arabia talk about?

According to the Saudi state news agency, the two foreign ministers discussed the recent escalation in the region and efforts to reduce tensions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed the development.

Following the discussions, Araghchi on Sunday warned against pursuing a military solution to the conflict and offered Tehran’s assistance in facilitating dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

“Insisting on a military approach and disregarding a political solution would only further complicate the situation,” Araghchi said, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

On Monday, ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei reiterated Tehran’s willingness to mediate, saying Iran was deeply concerned about developments in the Arabian Peninsula.

“We absolutely do not want hostilities and war to continue between two Islamic countries,” Baghaei said, urging dialogue to resolve the conflict.

What is Iran’s stance on the war in Yemen?

Iran has repeatedly called for a diplomatic settlement to Yemen’s conflict and says it supports a political solution rather than continued military action.

Tehran backs the Houthis, who control Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and other parts of the country.

The armed group forms part of the Iran-aligned “axis of resistance”, which also includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah and armed groups in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has led a military coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government since 2015.

Baghaei said on Monday that the conflict served Israeli interests, framing a negotiated settlement as preferable to further fighting.

What is the latest in the Yemen fighting?

Fighting has intensified in Yemen, after the internationally recognised government’s forces announced Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 4 to reverse recent Houthi territorial gains, including the capital, Sanaa.

Government forces, backed by Riyadh, have reported advances near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait, a vital international shipping route. However, competing battlefield claims remain difficult to independently verify.

The Houthis have responded with missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports, energy infrastructure and other targets.

Two strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on Saturday and Sunday killed 14 people and wounded more than 300. The casualties included foreign nationals from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Palestine.

The escalating violence has also disrupted commercial flights, businesses and schools in Riyadh, underlining the growing economic and civilian consequences of the conflict.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg warned on Friday that Yemen had returned to “full-scale war”, with civilians bearing the brunt of the attacks.

Why is Iran willing to facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis?

Iran’s offer to facilitate talks between Riyadh and the Houthis could be an attempt to strengthen Tehran’s diplomatic position and secure a wider regional agreement that extends beyond Yemen.

“I think Iran is trying to turn Yemen from a military liability into a diplomatic asset,” Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security analyst at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

He said Tehran recognises that Saudi Arabia is struggling to reverse Houthi territorial gains, particularly around Taiz and Bab al-Mandeb, despite intensifying its military campaign.

“Araghchi’s offer is an attempt to position Iran as part of the solution to a crisis in which it has also helped sustain the problem,” Krieg said.

Analyst Mortazavi, meanwhile, said Iran’s diplomatic outreach is part of a broader effort to link the conflicts unfolding across the region.

“The larger political objective is an informal non-aggression arrangement between Iran and its allies on one side and the United States and its regional partners on the other,” she said.

Such an agreement, she argued, would require an end to hostilities across multiple fronts, including Yemen and Lebanon, rather than a settlement confined to the US-Iran conflict.

Moreover, academic Krieg said there was also an important “Saudi dimension” to the discussions.

“Riyadh is increasingly uncomfortable with its dependence on Washington, frustrated by the limited American willingness to intervene in Yemen and reluctant to become dependent on the UAE again,” he said.

“Iran sees an opportunity to demonstrate that engagement with Tehran can deliver something Saudi Arabia’s traditional security partnerships have struggled to provide.”

There are also economic considerations, the analysts noted. Iran is under significant pressure from the US blockade, while Gulf countries are gradually recovering their energy exports to pre-war levels despite Iranian disruptions.

“Offering Riyadh a way out of Yemen potentially gives Iran leverage well beyond the Yemeni theatre, particularly in negotiations over Hormuz, sanctions relief and the wider regional security architecture,” Krieg said.

However, Krieg cautioned against overstating Iran’s influence over the Houthis, who have their own political ambitions and demands.

“Ansar Allah is not simply an Iranian proxy awaiting instructions,” Krieg said. “Its leadership has its own political ambitions, increasingly sees itself as a regional military actor and believes its recent territorial gains have strengthened its negotiating position. Iran can facilitate talks and potentially influence the intensity of escalation, but it cannot simply order the Houthis to surrender their gains around Mocha or Bab al-Mandeb.”

For Mortazavi, the broader message is that regional security cannot be addressed in isolation.

“Ultimately, Tehran’s message is that regional security cannot be divided,” she said. “Saudi Arabia cannot obtain security from attacks, while Iran and its allies remain under military and economic pressure.”

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Prep Rally. I’m Eric Sondheimer. It’s looking like the game of the year this week in high school football: No. 1 Santa Margarita at No. 2 St. John Bosco.

Assistants in spotlight

Kuika Moaalii, a 6-foot-5 sophomore, makes tough catch for St. John Bosco. He had four catches for 119 yards and one touchdown in 28-14 win over Orange Lutheran.

(Craig Weston / For The Times)

Santa Margarita (7-0) at St. John Bosco (6-1) on Friday night has all the makings of your typical Trinity League title decider. Great coaching, great players, great atmosphere.

While many will focus on the head coaching matchup of Santa Margarita’s Carson Palmer vs. St. John Bosco’s Jason Negro, the real spotlight should fall on the highly respected coordinators who will need to be smart, creative and be ready to improvise and adjust.

For Santa Margarita, that will be offensive coordinator Lenny Vandermade and defensive coordinator Steve Fififa. For St. John Bosco, offensive coordinator Steve Lo and defensive coordinator Chris King have lots of respect for their counterparts. Don’t expect any to be dismissed in the middle of the game.

All need to figure ways to get the ball to their star athletes on offense and prevent big plays on defense.

It’s the defensive chess match that will be most interesting. Santa Margarita has been getting excellent production from a group of freshmen and recorded three shutouts. This will be their biggest game yet. St. John Bosco has fixed some secondary issues with the addition of Kingston Fatu, who has two interceptions in two games. This will come down to which defensive line can apply enough quarterback pressure without having to blitz.

The winner should be in good position to be the Trinity League champion.

Cleveland’s offensive line has been a strength, including right tackle Carlos Gomez (left), right guard Carter Fitzgerald, center Pedro Castaneda, center Adam Garbisch, left guard Jovanni Orellana and left tackle Josue Fonseca.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times )

In case you haven’t noticed, history is being made at Cleveland High, which is 7-0 and has the inside track to win the West Valley League title under 34-year-old third-year head coach Mario Guzman. It has been decades since a young coach at not one of the City Section power schools has guided his team to contention at the highest level in City football.

Here’s a look at what’s been happening at the Reseda campus to accumulate seven consecutive wins to start the season, including victories over Crenshaw and Birmingham.

Franklin and Eagle Rock had their Northern League game postponed Friday because of continuing fallout dealing with the death of a Franklin student. The game will be played Monday night at L.A. Wilson.

There’s a season-long competition to be the best running back in the City Section among Brandon Hernandez of Panorama, Ceasar Reyes of Garfield and Tru Warrior Casas of Fairfax. All are well past 1,000 yards rushing and closing in on 2,000.

Elisha Mueller of St. John Bosco shows off his blocking skills against Orange Lutheran.

(Craig Weston / For The Times)

St. John Bosco set up its showdown with Santa Margarita with a hard-fought 28-14 win over Orange Lutheran. Here’s the report.

Inglewood rallied to defeat Palos Verdes and move to win the Bay League title. Here’s the report.

El Modena knocked off Laguna Beach in the Delta League. Here’s the report.

Crespi junior quarterback Chase Curren became the school’s all-time leader in touchdown passes with 54 by passing for three touchdowns in a 49-0 win over Harvard-Westlake. The old record was 53 held by his offensive coordinator, Bryan Bennett. His standout receiver Bru McFarland, called the record-breaking TD.

There are still 23 unbeaten teams left in the Southern Section and City Section. Here’s the report.

Here’s a look at this week’s top 25 rankings by The Times.

Here’s top individual performances.

Here’s week eight schedule.

The week ahead

Week eight in high school football has the chance to be one of the dramatic in the regular season with many big games.

Besides Santa Margarita at St. John Bosco, there’s Mission Viejo at San Clemente, Bishop Amat at Sherman Oaks Notre Dame, King/Drew at Crenshaw, Hamilton at Palisades, Bellflower at Paramount and Mater Dei vs. Servite at Cerritos College,

Pualani Olotoa-Le’au, a sophomore, has been contributing to Carson in flag football and softball.

(Courtesy Olotoa-Le’au family)

Last week’s heat wave caused lots of postponed flag football games in the City Section. The powerful Northern League needs to catch up. Wilson is 2-0 and Eagle Rock 1-0.

Carson and Narbonne are 4-1 in the Marine League with San Pedro at 3-1. Here’s a look at a two-sport contributor for Carson.

JSerra is 23-0 and few teams are giving the Lions much competition. Here’s this week’s top 10 flag football rankings by The Times.

A big Monday showdown has Huntington Beach facing Newport Harbor.

Roommates at UCLA

Linebacker Scott Taylor (left) and receiver Shane Rosenthal, graduates of Loyola and Newbury Park, have become roommates and contributors for UCLA’s football team.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

Former Loyola High star Scott Taylor and former Newbury Park star Shane Rosenthal are roommates and teammates on UCLA’s football team.

They explain how important it is going off to college to explore and find someone with similar ideas and principles.

Here’s a look at why things are working out.

Water polo

Harvard-Westlake made a big move in the water polo rankings this week with consecutive wins over JSerra and Santa Margarita.

Harry Siafaris was a key player with his scoring skills.

Newport Harbor had a big league win over rival Corona del Mar. Here’s the report.

Notes

Junior pitcher Carlos Acuna of Birmingham, the City Section player of the year, has committed to UC San Diego….

Dezi Delgado from Sherman Oaks Notre Dame has committed to CSUN baseball….

King Rachal of Sherman Oaks Notre Dame has committed to Utah State for basketball….

Standout guard Gene Roebuck of La Mirada has committed to Cal….

Former Monroe High and Cal State Northridge pitcher Lew Lerner has died. He was 74. He was a first-round draft pick of the Twins and led CSUN to a national championship in 1970….

JSerra cross-country star Reese Holley has committed to North Carolina….

Bob Hitchcock, who built the Temple City High football program into a powerhouse, has died. He was 97. He won seven Southern Section championships in the 1970s….

Guard Omar Cuffie from Loyola has committed to play basketball at Navy….

Michael Scarince of South Pasadena won the cross-country invitational race at the Clovis Invitational in 15:01….

Track and field athlete Aidan Antonio of Woodbridge has committed to Georgetown….

Guard Pierce Thompson of Harvard-Westlake has committed to Utah….

The JSerra girls volleyball team claimed the Division 1&2 Diamond Bracket at the Southern California Volleyball Invitational at Alliant University in San Diego….

Here are the latest Southern Section girls volleyball rankings.

From the archives: Cooper Barkate

Cooper Barkate playing for Mater Dei in 2021. He’s now at Miami.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

In Cooper Barkate’s senior season in 2022 at Mater Dei, the team went 12-1 and he was a vey good receiver who chose academics and the Ivy League, attending Harvard for three years and graduating with a degree in economics. Then he transferred to Duke for one season and is now at Miami, where entered the national discussion after catching five passes for 98 yards and one touchdown against Clemson.

His father, Harold, was a punter for UCLA who grew up in the high desert.

Here’s a story from 2023 from Harvard’s school newspaper.

Here’s a story from 2021 from the New York Times explaining Barkate’s decision to go to Harvard.

Recommendations

From Indianapreps, a story on the changing landscape in covering high school sports.

From KGET in Bakersfield, a story on a private eye uncovering ineligible players.

From Oregonlive, a story on former Crenshaw running back De’Anthony Thomas turning to disc golf.

From Axios, a story on how youth sports is affecting Sunday worship.

Tweets you might have missed

Until next time….

Have a question, comment or something you’d like to see in a future Prep Rally newsletter? Email me at eric.sondheimer@latimes.com, and follow me on Twitter at @latsondheimer.

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The Swedish academy says the academics’ models are ‘now used by central banks and ​governments around the world’.

The ⁠2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has been awarded to US academics Robert Hall and Michael ⁠Woodford for their work on how monetary and fiscal policy can help stabilise fluctuations in the economy, according to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

The winners of the prestigious award, formally known ⁠as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel and the final prize to be given out this year, were announced on Monday.

The two laureates developed new macroeconomic models that improve people’s ability to implement effective stabilisation policies, enabling fiscal and monetary policy measures that can reduce damaging swings in the economy.

“The laureates’ work has provided us ‌with a stable theoretical foundation for the models that are now used by central banks and governments around the world,” John Hassler, chair of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences, said in a statement.

“With them, we are better equipped to deal with shocks in the economy, such as energy crises or sudden changes in how much households consume.”

During the oil crises in the 1970s, the existing Keynesian models used to determine when and how measures should be implemented to tackle recessions or other economic fluctuations stopped working. Hall and Woodford then developed new tools to understand what policy responses could be the most effective.

“Rather than basing the models on statistical links between macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, production and consumption, they chose to build them on a microeconomic foundation,” the academy said. “This encompasses an understanding of how the total mass of individual households and businesses affect the economy through their actions.”

The economics prize, first awarded ⁠in 1969, is not part of the five original awards ⁠created in the 1895 will of industrialist and dynamite inventor Alfred Nobel, but was instead established by Sweden’s central bank.

The majority of previous laureates have been from the United States. Only three women have ⁠ever won, most recently Claudia Goldin in 2023 for her work on how gender has affected pay and employment over time ⁠in the US.

Last year’s winners – Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt – won for ‌their work on “creative destruction” and how new technology and production methods can boost growth and living standards.

Like the other Nobel awards, the economics prize consists of a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2m cheque.

The Nobel prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry, literature and peace were announced last ‌week, with South African jurist Navi Pillay and Canadian writer Anne Carson among the winners.

Russell Brand has appeared in court for the start of his rape and sexual assault trial.

The 51-year-old comedian and actor has been charged with three counts of rape, three charges of sexual assault and one allegation of indecent assault, which are alleged to have occurred between 1999 and 2009.

The trial at Southwark Crown Court in London, which could last up to 10 weeks, has now begun with the process of jury selection.

Brand pleaded not guilty to the charges during pre-trial hearings.

The comedian and actor arrived at court wearing a grey suit and sunglasses, accompanied by his wife Laura.

There was a large media presence at the court for the start of the trial, which is expected to last up to 10 weeks.

US President Donald Trump has announced an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, days after easing sanctions on Russian fuel to tackle soaring domestic and global fuel prices.

The energy truce, announced on Sunday, marks another shift in Washington’s approach to Russian energy, as the Iran-US war and recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities disrupted global oil supplies and pushed up fuel prices. Trump has even asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil facilities, as Moscow remains a major exporter of diesel.

The spike in diesel prices in recent weeks has particularly put pressure on Trump’s Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections. Surveys show Americans hold the Trump administration responsible for the soaring fuel prices amid the unpopular US war on Iran.

“Attacks on refineries and energy facilities have taken capacity out of an already stretched global fuel market, pushing up costs for transport, agriculture and businesses, with the pain ultimately passed on to consumers,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera, referring to the mutual attacks on energy sites by Ukraine and Russia.

“A genuine ceasefire could help protect supplies and ease some of that pressure, particularly as winter approaches.”

However, she warned it was too early to call it a “diplomatic breakthrough”, citing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that the energy truce came as a surprise to him.

Trump’s decisions have drawn criticism from US politicians and European allies, who warn that allowing Russian fuel back into global markets could provide Moscow with new revenue to finance its war in Ukraine. In March, the Trump administration gave a sanctions waiver to Russian seaborne oil.

So, why has Trump repeatedly changed his position on Russian energy, and what is behind his latest decisions?

What is the ‘energy ceasefire’ Trump announced?

On Sunday, Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to immediately stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure.

“Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on Truth Social, without providing further details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was not aware of the energy truce, saying the deal was “news to me” but welcomed the announcement nonetheless.

However, he said Russian drones continued targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, including a power plant in Kharkiv, after Trump’s statement.

“We are waiting for the details of the conditions between the Americans and Russians, ⁠⁠⁠⁠and we are waiting ⁠⁠⁠⁠to see one specific step the Americans are ready to take,” Zelenskyy said on Monday during a video address to a security conference in Warsaw.

“This ⁠⁠⁠⁠energy ceasefire, it can work, and it can become a major step towards ending ‌‌‌‌the war if the Americans truly step in now and make ‌‌‌‌sure ‌‌‌‌Russians respect it.”

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russian oil refineries, arguing that energy revenues help fund Moscow’s war. Russia, meanwhile, has attacked Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure throughout the four-year conflict.

Academic Alexey Muriaev has urged caution over Trump’s announcement, questioning whether an agreement has actually been reached, and if so, what it entails.

“Is it about suspending attacks on oil refineries? And if that’s the case, then the situation would be inadequate, because Ukraine’s oil refineries have already been taken out by Russia’s strikes beforehand,” Muraviev, senior research fellow in Defence and Strategic Studies at Edith Cowan University, told Al Jazeera.

“So, in this sense, it would mean effectively Ukraine suspending unilateral action against Russia’s oil refinery facilities.”

Muriaev also linked the announcement to Trump’s diesel agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting it may be a signal to Zelenskyy.

“Attacking Russian oil refinery capability would probably be interpreted by Washington as an attack on US economic interests,” he said, referring to the agreement on diesel exports through April 2027.

What’s the state of global oil prices?

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have continued to keep global oil markets under pressure.

On Monday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell to about $103.04 a barrel following Trump’s ceasefire announcement and Russian diesel deal, while US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at about $90.96.

However, prices remain elevated because of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies flow.

Recent attacks on Saudi oil installations and airports by Yemen’s Houthis and the fighting around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait have put further pressure on oil prices.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have compounded diesel shortages, affecting a fuel essential for the agriculture and trucking industries.

The crisis prompted the Group of Seven nations last week to agree to release 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves. The G7 decision came after pressure from Trump.

How has the Trump administration zig-zagged between punishing and embracing Russian energy?

Washington’s approach to Russian energy has shifted repeatedly since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Under President Joe Biden, the US banned Russian oil and energy imports in March 2022, seeking to cut off revenue used to finance Moscow’s war.

But Washington simultaneously supported a G7 price cap on Russian oil, designed to restrict Moscow’s earnings without removing too much supply from global markets.

Moreover, the Biden administration also accepted India’s continued purchases of Russian crude to prevent global prices from rising.

After returning to power last year, Trump initially intensified pressure on Moscow. In August 2025, his administration imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods over New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil.

Two months later, Washington sanctioned Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, accusing Moscow of failing to seriously pursue peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

However, Washington’s approach took a dramatic turn this year. On March 5, Washington issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian oil stranded at sea, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid US attacks on Iran threatened global supplies.

A week later, the Trump administration expanded the exemption, allowing countries worldwide to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, with the waiver lasting until April 11.

In September, Trump urged Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries, blaming the strikes for global diesel shortages.

On October 9, he announced an agreement with Russian President Putin for Moscow to release more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with another 1.5 million tonnes to follow.

Why has Trump changed his position on Russian oil frequently?

Trump’s shifting public position on Russian energy reflects ongoing, and often competing, political and economic pressures.

“Trump is caught between his geopolitical ambitions and the domestic political consequences of expensive energy,” Susannah Streeter of Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera.

She said Washington was trying to pressure Moscow over its war in Ukraine while simultaneously allowing Russian fuel sales that could generate additional revenue for the Kremlin.

“The shift may deliver a short-term political gain if supplies increase and prices ease, but it could come at a longer-term diplomatic cost,” she said, adding that the benefits appeared limited while the Middle East war continued.

US diesel prices reached a record $6.52 per gallon in September, placing Trump under pressure ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

However, according to academic Muriev, the US president’s public rhetoric should be distinguished from his administration’s actions.

“I don’t really see inconsistency in Trump’s approach because, apart from his public rhetoric, apart from his frequent media posting, there’s been a more steady approach on behalf of his administration,” he told Al Jazeera.

He pointed to discussions between Russian and American officials in August and September, suggesting that negotiations over the latest diesel agreement may have begun well before Trump’s announcement last Friday.

Muriev suggested the timing of the announcement could be politically motivated, allowing Trump to claim a victory on energy prices before the midterms.

Moreover, Moscow also has an interest in helping Trump retain political influence because his administration appears more willing to negotiate with Russia than former President Biden was. Trump has  been relatively more accepting of the Russian position on the Ukraine war and has even blamed Zelenskyy for failing to end the war.

“For Putin, it’s not just about scoring immediate economic benefit, but also achieving longer-term political and strategic goals,” Muriev said, referring to other issues such as Iran, cybersecurity, space cooperation and nuclear arms control.

The energy crisis has also created contrasting consequences for American businesses.

While higher oil prices can boost revenues for US energy producers, they increase operating costs for businesses dependent on fuel.

Susannah Streeter said cheaper diesel could provide relief to trucking companies, farmers and manufacturers, although the additional Russian supplies were unlikely to make a significant difference while disruptions in the Middle East continued.

She also warned that frequent changes to sanctions could create uncertainty for companies making long-term investment and supply-chain decisions.

“If sanctions are relaxed, reimposed or changed at short notice, companies face greater uncertainty over sourcing, compliance and the risk of being caught on the wrong side of a policy reversal,” she said.

Tom Cruise’s latest film Digger is expected to lose around $245m (£185m), Hollywood analysts have said, after the film’s continuing poor performance in cinemas.

Ticket sales for the satirical black comedy, which stars Cruise as oil magnate Digger Rockwell, dropped by around 60% in the movie’s second weekend.

It brings Digger’s total box office takings to around $35m (£26m) globally so far. The film is estimated to have cost its studio Warner Bros around $280m (£211m) to make and market.

But Cruise said last week, external that he “never thought of movies when I’m making them [in terms of] opening weekend,” adding he was instead focused on making films that “hopefully will translate, last and evolve”.

The film’s takings relative to its budget mean it could become one of the biggest film flops in Hollywood history.

Digger’s performance is in sharp contrast to the success of IP-driven hits starring Cruise in recent years, such as new instalments of the Top Gun and Mission: Impossible franchises.

Digger is directed by Alejandro G Iñárritu, best known for films such as Birdman, Babel and The Revenant.

Hollywood trade publication Variety said Digger was expected to end its box office run with around $50m (£38m) worldwide.

The film would need around $350m (£264m) to break even, due to its budget, marketing costs, the portion of ticket sales that go to theatres and the likely spend on an awards season campaign.

However, a Warner Bros spokesman pushed back slightly on the figure, telling Variety the film’s break even point was $300m (£227m).

Digger was the last standalone release for the studio before its recent takeover by Paramount.

The EU also announced that it officially added almost 1,600 new sanctions on Russia’s military industrial complex.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of violating the “energy ceasefire” that United States President Donald Trump unilaterally announced at the weekend and promised to respond if the attacks continue.

Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum via videolink on Monday, the Ukrainian president urged the US to step in to ensure ⁠that Moscow abided by the truce, noting that there have already been “Russian violations of the energy ceasefire announced by ‌President Trump.”

“We are waiting for the details of the conditions between the Americans and Russians, ⁠and we are waiting ⁠to see what specific steps the Americans are ready to take,” said Zelenskyy, who expressed surprise at the ceasefire deal.

“This ⁠energy ceasefire, it can work, and it can become a major step toward ending ‌the war if the Americans truly step in now and make ‌sure ‌Russians respect it … If Russia does not agree to an energy ceasefire, we will respond,” Zelenskyy told the Warsaw Security Forum.

Trump’s announcement on Sunday that the two countries had agreed to an “energy ceasefire” caused confusion. It came two days after Trump declared a temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian diesel, prompting outrage from European allies and Kyiv, who said it would only embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Both Ukraine and Russia have been launching mutual attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure for months, adding to upward pressure on global energy prices that have risen amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Zelenskyy initially denied any knowledge of the agreement and said it was “news to him,” according to Axios.

Trump has previously taken to his Truth Social account to announce truces or other arrangements before either Kyiv or Moscow confirmed them.

“An energy ceasefire and other steps to reduce escalation and guarantee security are truly needed here in reality, not just on Truth Social,”  Zelenskyy added.

European leaders expressed encouragement at the proposed ceasefire, but agreed with Zelenskyy that it had not taken effect.

“I have not noted, over‌ the last 48 hours, any energy ceasefire coming from the ‌Russian ‌side,” French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters at a Paris autoshow.

At the Warsaw Security Forum, ⁠Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that “Russia is not interested in ‌a ceasefire, de-escalation, or peace … that is why I will go to Brussels to urge all European partners ⁠to consider increasing ⁠sanctions.”

In Brussels, the European Union announced that it has officially added almost 1,600 new sanctions on Russia’s military industrial complex, including individuals and entities involved in its four-and-a-half-year war, in a bid to maintain pressure on Moscow.

“This is the single largest expansion of our sanctions list since Russia started its war,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas wrote online. “Europe is again showing a united front … We are making it significantly harder, slower and more expensive for Russia to produce the weapons it uses to kill Ukrainians,” she added.

Meanwhile, Russia ⁠attacked Ukrainian gas production facilities belonging to its state ⁠oil and gas ⁠company Naftogaz in the Kharkiv region overnight, which caused a fire, the ‌company said on Monday.

“The attack damaged critical equipment. Our employees are doing everything possible ⁠to repair the ⁠damage as quickly as possible and ⁠prevent risks to ⁠the stable ⁠operation of the energy system,” Naftogaz acting CEO ‌Sergii Fedorenko wrote on Telegram.

A day earlier, Zelenskyy had said that Ukraine was ready to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries if Moscow ceased its own attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Venezuelan provisional president Delcy Rodríguez’s all-smiles photo op with Trump in a Manhattan hotel on September 22 proved too much for some of her erstwhile supporters. For the Spanish leftist Juan Carlos Monedero, a staunch defender of Hugo Chávez, Maduro and at first Rodríguez, her New York appearance “clashed with the previous socialist and anti-imperialist discourse” of her movement.

Shortly before the encounter, Rodríguez evaded a reporter’s question about whether she would visit jailed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in Brooklyn. Her decision to stay clear of Maduro is consistent with her attempt to chart a new course for Venezuela.

Rodríguez became interim president following the bloody U.S. military incursion on January 3, 2026 that resulted in the kidnapping of Maduro and the First Lady Cilia Flores. Facing the prospect of a second, more devastating military attack, Rodríguez shifted sharply toward Washington on foreign and oil policy while reshuffling the public administration and military at the expense of hardline pro-Chávez (Chavista) loyalists.

Rodriguez’s strategy goes too far

Rodríguez’s strategy from the outset was to demonstrate that she was not cowardly submitting to Washington’s dictates or acting as a collaborationist a la Vichy France. Her wholehearted embrace of policies pushed by Washington is designed to dispel any impression that she is bowing to U.S. pressure. On many key issues, she has become as Catholic as the Pope with regard to Trump, while retaining the Chavista label. Shortly after January 3, Rodríguez affirmed “there is no foreign agent” governing Venezuela, a claim unconvincingly echoed by the second in command Diosdado Cabello who alleged “we don’t depend on anyone.”

In a different vein, pro-Rodríguez analysts argue that the interim president has zero options given the U.S. threats. Either submit to Washington or expect massive bombardment and/or a return of the old regime.

But there is clear evidence that Rodríguez has some latitude, albeit limited, which she has declined to fully exercise. That’s because Trump is fully wedded to his partnership with her.

Trump decided to recognize Rodríguez rather than right-wing leader María Corina Machado – much to the disappointment of Miami-based anti-Communist hawks – for good reasons. A confidential CIA report requested by the Trump administration prior to January 3 warned that the Venezuelan opposition lacked support within the pro-Chavista armed forces as well as the police force. The conclusion was obvious: turning power over to Machado was a recipe for chaos, if not civil war.

Trump has assimilated the Pentagon’s assessment of “de-Baathification” following the U.S. invasion of Iraq as a “complete disaster,” responsible for the endless internecine conflict in that nation. Trump has repeatedly invoked the Iraq fiasco when discussing the Rodríguez government. At one press conference he noted with reference to Venezuela “We had, as you remember, Iraq, where everybody got fired…And you know what they turned into? ISIS. And we don’t want that.”

Moreover, the decision to recognize Rodríguez rather than Machado was not taken on a whim but rather followed months of careful deliberation at the highest level of the Trump administration. He now touts his partnership with Rodríguez as a major success at a time in which he has very few of them to tout. It is thus unlikely that Trump will readily turn his back on Rodríguez. The upshot is that Rodríguez has some room to maneuver.

How much wiggle room?

The Chavista movement under Rodríguez has retreated from its defining banner: the uncompromising defense of national sovereignty. To its credit, the movement’s leadership continues to cast itself as an opponent of the traditional elite and a defender of the collective production units known as “communes.” But these positive features fall short for a movement that once raised such high expectations. While retaining a sense of realism, Rodríguez could have at least maintained a more neutral position on issues that compromised national sovereignty.

One of the most troubling examples was Venezuela’s collaboration in the extrajudicial killing of Niño Guerrero, leader of the criminal Tren de Aragua, in a U.S. Southern Command missile strike in the state of Bolívar in June 2026. The Venezuelan government, which provided intelligence information to the Southern Command, issued a statement in which it “congratulated” all participants in the operation. In doing so, Caracas lent credence to Trump’s false narrative that drug traffickers are terrorists. At the very least, the Rodríguez government could have stayed out of the operation while maintaining a neutral public posture.

Equally striking was the marked presence of Israeli military officers, including senior army officer Brigadier General Elad Edri, at a formal farewell meeting on July 21 in which Rodríguez thanked Israel for its earthquake relief efforts. U.S. and Israeli military involvement in the recovery operations drew objections from Chavista social movements, such as the famed Caracas barrio-based Coordinadora Simón Bolívar. They especially resented the conspicuousness of the presence of military personnel of both nations, symbolized by a controversial photograph of a beaming Diosdado Cabello shaking hands with U.S. Southern Command chief Francis L. Donovan, who had overseen the January 3 incursion. This, then, was another instance in which the Chavista leadership offered Washington a level of support that went well beyond what was necessary given the circumstances.

Still another example of the lengths to which Rodríguez has gone in accommodating Washington is her willingness to accept the Pentagon’s participation in the Venezuelan oil industry. The mega oil deal reached between Washington and Caracas in late August gives the Pentagon 35 percent ownership of the operating company that is to exploit 17 Venezuelan oil fields representing nearly 150 percent of U.S. proven reserves. But there is no precedent for the Pentagon’s equity ownership of this nature which is of dubious legality. Venezuelan analyst Phil Gunson, who has been briefed on the deal, told the Guardian that the major oil companies “are concerned about the irregularities.” From Venezuela’s viewpoint, the involvement of the Pentagon in the nation’s oil business makes little sense.

From the perspective of the Pentagon and its Israeli counterpart, Rodríguez’s conciliatory stance appears to be a vindication and a reversal of Chavista defiance – if not a payback for past grievances. In January 2000 Chávez turned back a sizable relief operation that the same U.S. Southern Command was in the process of sending in response to catastrophic floods, which had devastated the state of Vargas the previous month. Chávez’s decision was an embarrassing rebuff for the Pentagon, if not humiliating.

Along similar lines, Roni Kaplan, spokesperson for the Israeli armed forces and a member of his nation’s aid mission, told CE Noticias Financieras-English on July 22, “it’s like when you fight with someone and they come to apologize, and when they say they’re sorry, you say, “‘I’ve already forgotten all about it.’” Kaplan’s statement puts in sharp relief the extent to which Rodríguez’s posture breaks with the Chavista past.

Where things now stand

The pro-Chavista think tank Misión Verdad puts a positive spin on Rodríguez’s strategy. According to its take, the Manhattan meeting with Trump marked the point at which “Washington’s asymmetric coercion and the strategic adaptation deployed by the Chavista movement converge.” For both Trump and Rodríguez, the aim was the same: “stabilization… to reduce political costs by sacrificing ideological orthodoxy.” The asymmetry according to the Misión Verdad statement “does not erase the agency of the quantitatively weaker actor; it alters its tactics, shifting it from open confrontation toward strategic adaptation.”

The adaptation demanded by the asymmetry is captured in a slogan championed by Diosdado Cabello: “Venezuela: Reborn United.” Strip away the Misión’s lofty language, and the message is that the Chavista movement needs to make a fundamental break with its past in important ways.

Adaption is understandable given the circumstances of January 3. But if Chavismo abandons the banner of defense of national sovereignty, little remains of what defined the movement. And that is precisely where the strategy of being “as Catholic as the Pope” in accommodating Washington has led.

That’s not to say there are easy answers or that an alternative strategy would necessarily succeed, particularly given Trump’s notorious unpredictability. Nor does it mean that Rodríguez deserves to be demonized as a sellout as so many on the left are doing. Such demonization underestimates the challenges and uniqueness of the situation, at the same time that it divides the solidarity movement. The relative unity of the Chavista leadership has been one of its strengths ever since Chávez’s death in 2013, and the same needs to be preserved in the solidarity movement.

The problem is that the options available to Rodríguez are scarce, whereas Trump has many. He need not pull off another January 3. Nearly all Venezuela’s oil-derived revenue is in a U.S. account handled by Marco Rubio. All Rubio has to do is to withhold it or scale it back whenever Rodríguez steps out of line with Washington.

Even with this reality hanging over her, Rodríguez and other Chavista leaders have put forward two major demands: free Maduro and Flores and an end to the sanctions, which remain largely intact. Rodríguez, however, has not put these two demands front and center in her dialogue with the Trump administration – not by a long shot.

As pressure from Miami grows for Venezuela to set an electoral timetable, the position that elections and harsh sanctions are incompatible would shift responsibility for any delay onto Washington. Last Spring, Chavista leader Ernesto Villegas, who headed the government’s Program for Peace and Democratic Coexistence, called for “elections free of sanctions.” Linking elections explicitly to the lifting of sanctions would allow the Rodríguez government to reclaim some distance from Washington, even as U.S. blackmail severely limits its ability to fully assert national sovereignty.

Steve Ellner is a retired professor of the Universidad de Oriente in Venezuela where he lived for over 40 years and is currently Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives. He is the author and editor of over a dozen books on Latin American politics and history. In 2018 he spoke in over twenty cities in the U.S. and Canada as part of a Venezuelan solidarity tour.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

Source: Counterpunch

Israel has expanded its military occupation in the Gaza Strip in violation of a United States-brokered ‘ceasefire’, forcing Palestinians into an ever-smaller share of the besieged territory, devastated by Israel’s ongoing genocidal war.

Nearly two-thirds of Gaza is now under Israeli military control or subject to access restrictions.

The original ‘Yellow Line’, established under US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war, marked the area to which Israeli forces initially withdrew. They were expected to make further withdrawals gradually, but instead, they have seized more territory.

On Sunday, Israeli forces moved yellow concrete blocks dozens of metres west in Shujayea, a neighbourhood in southeastern Gaza City, forcing Palestinian families to flee and bringing more of the neighbourhood under Israeli military control.

“It’s not simply about where the ‘Yellow Line’ is today but where it can move next,” Al Jazeera’s Ibrahim al-Khalili said, reporting from Gaza City. “For families who have been repeatedly displaced in the past three years, the situation remains dire, and they have to make the impossible decision of where they can go.”

More than 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.1 million population has been forcibly displaced by Israel’s war, launched on October 7, 2023, after Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

Using maps, Al Jazeera shows how much of Gaza Israel has grabbed since the ‘ceasefire’.

Gaza before the war

Before the war, Palestinians were spread across the Gaza Strip, a 365sq km (141sq-mile) territory roughly 41km (25 miles) long and from 6km to 12km (4 to 7 miles) wide.

That made it one of the most densely populated places on Earth with about 6,000 people per square kilometre, similar to Nairobi or London. Each person had, on average, about 160sq metres (1,722sq ft) of land.

Even then, not all of Gaza’s land was accessible. Israel enforced a buffer zone along the fence with Israel, and Palestinians who approached it risked being shot. In 2010, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimated that the restricted area covered 17 percent of Gaza’s land and 35 percent of its farmland.

Gaza has been under an Israeli land, air and sea blockade since 2007.

Gaza at the ‘ceasefire’

Under the first phase of the “ceasefire”, Israeli forces were to withdraw to the “Yellow Line” within 24 hours, after which a 72-hour period began for the handover of Israeli captives held in Gaza. Trump first published a map of the line on his Truth Social platform.

The line left Israel in control of 53 percent of the Strip, mostly farmland and border areas in the east, and confined Palestinians to the remaining 47 percent, about 172sq km (66sq miles).

By October 2025, two years of war had killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, and tens of thousands more had left the territory, reducing Gaza’s population to about 2.1 million.

Pushed into less than half of Gaza’s territory under the “ceasefire”, its density doubled to about 12,000 people per square kilometre, comparable to New York City. Each person was left with about 82sq metres (883sq ft).

Gaza today

Since the “ceasefire”, Israeli forces have repeatedly moved the yellow concrete blocks marking the “Yellow Line” farther west, sometimes overnight, expanding the areas under their control. Satellite imagery has also documented continued demolitions in areas held by Israeli forces.

The research group Forensic Architecture estimated that Israel controlled 58 percent of Gaza by December. In March, the Israeli military sent aid agencies maps of a new “orange line”, a restricted zone beyond the “Yellow Line” where humanitarian movements must be coordinated with the army.

According to OCHA, restrictions now cover 65 percent of Gaza. Israel itself said it controls about 70 percent of the territory, a UN official told the Security Council in June.

That leaves 2.1 million people in about 35 percent of the Strip, roughly 128sq km (49sq miles). The population density has nearly tripled since before the war to about 16,000 people per square kilometre, close to central Tokyo.

Each person now has about 61sq metres (657sq ft) of land for everything: shelter, roads, schools, hospitals and farmland.

Unlike Tokyo, Gaza has little space left to house its people. The UN Satellite Centre, UNOSAT, found 82 percent of structures in the Strip are damaged or destroyed. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says only 3 percent of Gaza’s cropland is both undamaged and accessible.

OCHA says the remaining 35 percent of Gaza is “already overcrowded” and access restrictions are a key obstacle as aid groups try to relocate families before the rainy season. More than 950,000 people live in displacement sites at risk of flooding, according to the UN, most of them in tents and makeshift shelters, as seen in the satellite image below.

Approaching the ‘Yellow Line” can be deadly. Israel treats areas beyond it as a free-fire zone, and Palestinians who come near it have been shot. Nearly 1,500 people have been killed across Gaza since the ceasefire was announced.

Chancellor John Healey is facing a funding gap of up to £35bn and must set out “credible” spending plans in his first Budget on 28 October, an influential think tank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that if the government wants to increase defence spending to 3% of national income by 2030 and lift health spending without squeezing other departments, it will need a “top-up” of billions of pounds.

Higher inflation, caused by the Iran war, could eat into what the government hoped to spend on public services, meaning Healey will have to choose between spending cuts, tax rises, or a mixture of both, the IFS warned.

The Treasury declined to comment on “rumour and speculation”.

The IFS urged the government to ensure its spending plans are credible, as opposed to proposing unrealistic future cuts to make the Budget add up.

The government is under growing pressure to show financial markets that it has a tight grip on finances as the cost of borrowing rises.

The IFS cautioned Healey about making any spending announcements in the 28 October Budget speech he has no intention of honouring.

“A ‘steady-as-she-goes’ Budget is not an option available to the chancellor,” said IFS director Helen Miller.

“Choosing to stay the course with the inherited tax and spending plans would mean allowing inflation to blow departments’ spending plans off course.

“Simply pencilling in implicit cuts that he has no intention of delivering would make the Budget a work of fiction,” she added.

Speaking ahead of the annual International Monetary Fund meeting this week, Healey said: “The consequences of conflict in the Middle East and Europe are hitting countries worldwide, leading to higher prices at the pumps and more expensive mortgages at home.

“But Britain and our allies can face up to these challenges together.”

He said his Budget “will build on this approach with fiscal discipline helping to deliver economic resilience” and give people “breathing space”.

Miller told the BBC’s Today programme that Healey has inherited spending plans for government departments where spending growth would slow in the coming years.

“[It] already looked likely that he would have to make spending cuts just to live within those,” she said. “Now, along comes the Middle East war, inflation goes up and those spending plans look very tight indeed.”

Added to that, the chancellor has said he wants to get defence spending up to 3% of national income. Under Keir Starmer’s leadership, Healey resigned as defence secretary in June in a battle with the Treasury over military spending.

Miller said: “You put all that together, if he wanted to do all of that within current spending plans he’s looking at having to cut some other services by something like £35bn.”

The chancellor does not have to address spending totals in this Budget, and may choose to leave such decisions until future events – for example, next year’s Spring Statement or Spending Review – by which time the outlook for the economy could look very different.

But the IFS warned not addressing it would cast doubt on the credibility of the government’s plans.

Previous chancellors have relied on a similar strategy of pencilling in unrealistic future spending plans to ensure that they meet the fiscal rules on the day – only to change the plans further down the line.

Miller said Healey’s focus on fiscal discipline was a “good first start but what he needs to do is not just say he’s going to cut borrowing in coming years but actually deliver on those plans.”

US, Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand among countries urging citizens to avoid travel to Kingdom.

Several countries have warned their citizens against travel to Saudi Arabia following a series of Houthi attacks on airports in the kingdom.

On Monday, Australia and New Zealand became the latest to issue advisories against travelling to the kingdom, following similar warnings from the United States, Canada, the UK, South Korea, and Japan.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said Australians should avoid King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and “reconsider” travel to other Saudi airports.

New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade urged citizens not to travel to the Saudi capital’s main gateway and the provinces of Najran, Jazan and Asir for any reason, and to avoid “non-essential” travel to Saudi Arabia as a whole.

The US embassy in Riyadh on Sunday advised US citizens to reconsider travel to the kingdom, citing the threat of attacks by Iran and the Iranian-backed Houthis.

Global Affairs Canada issued an advisory against non-essential travel to any part of Saudi Arabia.

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recommended that its citizens in Saudi Arabia leave unless they are on essential business and advised anyone planning to travel to the kingdom to cancel their trip.

The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office urged citizens to avoid travel to Jeddah and Dammam, and to all airports apart from Medina International Airport, except for essential reasons.

The warnings come as Saudi Arabia reels from five attacks on its airports in less than a week.

One person was killed and 11 others were injured on Sunday when a projectile struck King Khalid International Airport, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA).

A Houthi strike on the same airport on Saturday killed 13 people and injured more than 300 others, marking the deadliest attack on Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.

The Houthis claimed responsibility for all four strikes on Saudi airports before Sunday’s attack, which has yet to be claimed by any group.

King Khalid international airport and King Fahd international airport in Dammam remain closed following the attacks, causing significant disruption to aviation across the Middle East.

The attacks have also disrupted flights to and from King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah.

More than 150 flights were cancelled and 374 flights were delayed at the Jeddah airport on Sunday, according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24.

Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst and consultant in Singapore, said it was too early to predict the ramifications of the attacks for aviation across the region and beyond.

“As has been the case with the Iran war and the impact from that crisis on the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, the impact of this latest crisis really depends on how long it lasts, how long Riyadh airport remains closed, and how long and to what extent are the restrictions once it reopens,” Sobie told Al Jazeera.

Main opposition Congress party announces rally to the top court to demand removal of the chief election commissioner.

Chinese foreign ministry cites national sovereignty and Taiwan separatist activities as reasons behind the measures.

China has sanctioned Paraguay’s communications minister and Belize’s foreign minister over ties to Taiwan.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made the announcement on Monday, citing the safeguarding of China’s national sovereignty and opposition to Taiwan separatist activities as the reasons behind the measures, which went into effect the same day.

The measures against Paraguay’s Communications Minister Gustavo Villate and Belize’s Foreign Minister Francis Fonseca include the freezing of their assets in China and the denial of entry visas to Hong Kong and Macau.

The sanctions also prohibit Chinese organisations and individuals from engaging in transactions, cooperation or other activities with the ministers.

The Foreign Ministry said that “certain anti-China politicians” who are “driven by self-interest” have pushed their nations to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Beijing said the ministers had “taken a series of egregious actions and statements”, which are “damaging China’s core interests”.

Paraguay and Belize are two of 12 countries that maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

China views Taiwan as its territory, a view the island’s government strongly rejects.

The measures come two days after Taiwan’s National Day celebration.

In a National Day speech outside the Presidential Office on Saturday, Taiwan President William Lai Ching-te said the island “cherishes peace” and will “not give up our freedom”.

China’s Taiwan Affairs Office condemned Lai’s speech, saying it “disregards facts, ⁠distorts the truth, misleads the public, and reveals ulterior motives”.

In January, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to achieve the “reunification” of China and Taiwan, calling the goal “unstoppable”.

Diplomatic relations

Paraguay’s Communications Minister Villate marked Taiwan’s National Day with a social media post, saying: “Paraguay reaffirms its relationship of friendship and cooperation, based on shared values and principles: the self-determination of peoples, human rights and democracy.”

The Belize embassy in Taiwan also posted a message on its Facebook celebrating the 37th anniversary of their diplomatic relations.

“Together, we look forward to a future of growth, opportunity, and lasting friendship,” the embassy wrote.

Last month, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung visited Belize. His ministry said the two sides had agreed to deepen ties.

Taiwan’s other allies in the Americas include Guatemala and Haiti. It also has formal diplomatic ties with three Caribbean islands.

The United States does not have ⁠formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, but Washington is bound by law to provide the island with the means to ‌defend itself.

Earlier this month, the US delivered two fighter jets to Taiwan as the island seeks to build its defence capabilities to deter a feared attack from China.

Documentary draws on 24 anonymous Israeli sources accusing military of killing Palestinians in Gaza using AI systems.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for an investigation into the anonymous sources featured in a documentary alleging that Israel’s military killed civilians in Gaza using AI-powered targeting systems.

The award-winning film, NAZA, draws on testimony from 24 unnamed Israeli military whistleblowers accusing the army of using the systems to kill numerous civilians in the besieged territory.

“I demand that the chief of general staff, the head of the Shin Bet, and the attorney general launch a comprehensive investigation into the participants in the film ‘Naza’ and prosecute them for serious information security violations, criminal libel, and harm to Israel’s diplomatic and security interests,” Netanyahu said on X on Saturday evening.

“The film presents a false, misleading, and biased narrative that defames the State of Israel and the [Israeli military] internationally, severely damaging Israel’s standing,” he added.

In a statement last month, the Israeli military said it “categorically” rejected the whistleblowers’ allegations, calling some of their assertions “absurd’ and contradictory.

It insisted that the selection and approval of strikes “are made by human personnel only”, in line with the military’s guidelines.

Israeli army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has called for legal action against the participants to be considered and ordered an investigation into suspected leaks of classified military information used in the film’s production.

NAZA takes its name from the Israeli military term for civilian casualties expected in air strikes, an abbreviated form of the Hebrew phrase for “collateral damage”.

The film was awarded a special jury prize at the Venice International Film Festival and received a historic 25-minute standing ovation.

It has also triggered a political storm in Israel.

The film’s directors, Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, have been accused of “treason”. Netanyahu and Culture Minister Miki Zohar have threatened to revoke their Israeli citizenship.

Last week, the head of Israel’s National Public Diplomacy Directorate, Tzipi Hotovely, awarded the creators of another film, NAZA: The Real Story, certificates of recognition for countering the “blood libels” made in the original NAZA film.

According to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office, NAZA: The Real Story features testimony from soldiers refuting the original claims.

In contrast, 43 Israeli rights groups defended the filmmakers of NAZA and denounced the threats being directed at them, according to Israel’s Channel 12 news.

Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza began on October 7, 2023, after Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, and other Palestinian groups attacked southern Israel, killing 1,139 people and taking about 240 captive.

Since then, Israel has killed at least 74,000 Palestinians, including at least 21,000 children, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health.