looms

WASHINGTON — The specter of a Democratic wave on Tuesday and retreat of Republican power has quietly sparked conversations within GOP circles about President Trump’s eventual exit from the political stage — and the future of a party that has revolved around him for the past decade.

Heading into the vote, Trump faces the lowest job approval ratings of his career. Factions of the Republican Party long loyal to his brand are beginning to break ranks. Candidates who have aligned themselves most closely to the president are among the most imperiled. From the shores of Lake Ontario to rural Kansas, signs point to a voter coalition under strain, as Republicans grappling with a troubled economy question the party’s direction.

Recent polls show that 67% of Trump’s 2024 voters approve of his job performance, down from 95% early in his second term. The steepest drops are among younger voters and Latino support, according to a Pew Research Center poll.

While a majority of Republicans still want to see the next leader of the party follow Trump on most issues, a third want to see the next GOP presidential nominee take a different approach, according to a New York Times/Siena poll in May.

President Trump throws MAGA hats to supporters during a midterm campaign rally at Lubbock Memorial Civic Center in Lubbock, Texas, on Oct. 27.

(Kent Nishimura / AFP via Getty Images)

Marc Short, who served as Trump’s first White House director for legislative affairs, said that Republicans were “essentially in triage mode” entering the midterms, citing “inflation challenges” and an “avalanche of corruption stories.” Bryan Lanza, a former communications director for Trump, expressed concern last week that Republican enthusiasm has reached such lows that races in Mississippi and Texas are genuine toss-ups.

The Republican reckoning tests a party infrastructure reshaped around the president since his insurgent rise in 2015 transformed the GOP.

At the top of the party, warning signs of a splintering coalition have not changed the view that Trump still maintains the grip on the GOP’s future — and that any future decisions should take that into account.

“I think he’ll help decide who the next president is going to be,” Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said. “I think he’ll be super involved with not only the party but the process, and I welcome that as the chairman.”

Gruters called Trump “the single most important person in the Republican Party” and said he doubts the movement will reshape itself into a different kind of coalition based on the outcome of Tuesday’s election.

“I think it will continue to be Trump’s movement for as long as he’s alive,” he said. “It will be Trump’s movement.”

Others in Trump’s inner circle are making the same bet. His team is still staking Trump’s movement on the same thing that has defined it in the past: Trump himself.

“We’ve been with him for 10 years,” the official said. “Do you think he’s going away after the next two? No.”

What comes after that, the official wouldn’t say.

A person wears a sequined jacket as President Trump speaks on stage during an election rally on Oct. 9 at the Oncenter in Syracuse, N.Y.

(Alex Wong / Getty Images)

“Everyone wants to jump ahead and ask what 2028 looks like and what does beyond look like,” the official said. “I think the really smart thing about the president, and he’s even admitted it about himself, he’s always focused on the now, and he just works his a— off at the task at hand.”

The question of who inherits the movement is already taking shape, but Trump has avoided saying much when asked who he thinks should be the heir apparent.

Asked in the Oval Office last month whether he would endorse Vice President JD Vance — who had said a day earlier that he expected Trump’s backing if he decides to run for president in 2028 — Trump called Vance a “very talented person” and a “very good person,” but would not commit.

“I don’t think we’ve ever talked about it,” Trump said. “It’s early, very early right now. We have to get through the midterms.”

A New York Times/Siena poll released last week found that Republican primary voters favor Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio to be the party’s next nominee. Underscoring Trump’s grip on the party, the poll found, 8% said they want it to be Trump, who cannot run because of term limits.

The challenge for Republicans in the future will be to figure out a way to capture the MAGA base without isolating themselves from more mainstream Republican voters, said a GOP lobbyist with ties to Trump speaking on condition of anonymity to speak candidly.

“I think it would be foolish to ignore the MAGA base for any future candidate,” the lobbyist said. “The movement can evolve, but you need those voters to come out and vote.”

People wait for President Trump to arrive at a political rally at Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio on Oct. 7.

(Sam Owens / San Antonio Express-News via Getty Images)

Mike Madrid, a longtime Republican political strategist and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, which staunchly opposes Trump, argued that the future of the GOP will be influenced more by right-wing media personalities than policy because Trump consciously upended the party’s ideology over the last decade.

“The Republican Party is far, far more likely to balkanize than split along ideological lines because there is no ideological glue holding the GOP together anymore,” he said. “That’s gone.”

Madrid doubts Trump will change course even if Republicans suffer big losses on Tuesday night.

“Donald Trump is not going to adjust. He’s not capable of that. He never has. He never will,” Madrid said. “It doesn’t even occur to him. And even if it did, he wouldn’t know how to do it.”

If Democrats win a majority in Congress, history shows that it can be an opening for a president to pivot.

“What often happens in the last two years [of a term] is presidents bounce back,” said Christopher Warshaw, a Georgetown University public policy professor.

Presidents who “lose control of Congress and get shellacked in the midterms” often pivot to the political center, and tell voters “we’re going to try a new approach,” Warshaw said.

“MAGA” merchandise is for sale as supporters listen to President Trump speak at a midterm campaign rally at Guardian Centers of Georgia in Perry, Ga., on Oct. 24.

(Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images)

President Clinton did that after Republicans swept Congress in 1994, Warshaw said. President Biden did not after the 2022 midterms, a choice Warshaw said probably hurt Democrats in 2024, when Trump was elected. If Democrats win on Tuesday, Trump has signaled that he would be open to working with them to get things done.

“I hope that won’t be the case, but if it is, that has happened before with many presidents,” he told reporters. “You have strong veto and you end up working out deals.”

However Trump might deal with a divided Washington, the coalition he built is unlikely to dissipate when he leaves office, said Lynn Vavreck, a political science professor at UCLA.

“They want to build a very specific kind of world,” Vavreck said. “Those desires are not going to go away next Wednesday, or in 2028.”

Times staff writer Justine McDaniel contributed to this report.

NATO member Finland is preparing to reintroduce anti-personnel landmines into its military arsenal, with a contract for around one million examples due to be signed soon, following the country’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention that aims to eliminate these weapons. The move comes as Helsinki looks to strengthen its territorial defenses against a longstanding Russian threat and the prospect of a larger Russian military presence along its eastern border in the years ahead.

Finland’s withdrawal from the treaty, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of anti-personnel mines, took effect on January 10 of this year. Reflecting growing concern among NATO’s eastern-flank members about Russia’s military posture and the lessons of the war in Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have also moved to leave the convention.

Mines have, for many centuries, been used to complicate an attacker’s movement, slow operations, and force troops to devote time and resources to clearing obstacles. Anti-personnel mines, in particular, have long been employed in defensive campaigns, but they come with significant humanitarian risks. They can kill or maim civilians long after hostilities end, which has seen them fall foul of international humanitarian law in many countries — at least when those nations don’t see a realistic risk of invasion.

It is a measure of how badly the European security environment has deteriorated that anti-personnel mines are back on the agenda.

The Finnish Defense Forces previously said that discussions with the domestic defense industry and preparations to train military personnel would begin early this year. It has now announced that the project seeks two different types of anti-personnel mines, of Finnish manufacture.

The two weapons will comprise a modern tube mine activated by a tripwire trigger, and a pressure-activated step mine. In the future, more technically advanced mines may also be procured, including cluster-type mines of the kind deployed by Russia in Ukraine. In general, anti-personnel mines have been very widely used by both sides in that conflict, with Kyiv notably receiving them as part of U.S. air packages, as you can read about here. Neither the United States nor Russia are signatories of the Ottawa Convention.

“The aim is for production of the new anti-personnel mines to begin in Finland in 2028,” said Col. Riku Mikkonen, inspector of engineers for the Finnish Army Command.

“We have a materials procurement project underway, which is currently in the preparatory and market review phase. At the same time, we are drawing up the technical specifications for the mines,” Mikkonen added. “We will soon move on to the stage where we issue requests for tenders, so that we can eventually proceed to a competitive tendering process and conclude contracts.”

At this point, no contracts have been signed. However, once the procurement effort is underway, the Finnish Defense Forces are set to return their anti-personnel mine stockpile to what it was before acceding to the Ottawa Convention in 2012.

The first new mines and associated training equipment are expected to become available during 2027. Ultimately, all conscripts will be trained to employ anti-personnel mines. The total cost of the project is around $110 million, with the last of the mines scheduled to be delivered in the 2030s.

Helsinki has stressed that it does not intend to lay anti-personnel mines during peacetime. Mikkonen said the weapons would be used only under emergency conditions.

Finland’s decision reflects a national defense philosophy that has long been shaped by direct experience with Soviet aggression. The Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939, beginning the Winter War, and fought another conflict with the country from 1941 to 1944. Finland lost territory but preserved its independence, subsequently maintaining conscription, a large trained reserve, and a defense strategy built around making any invasion costly.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reinforced Finnish concerns that major conventional warfare in Europe remained a realistic possibility. Finland joined NATO in April 2023, and the country shares a little over 800 miles of border with Russia.

Finland’s defensive approach traditionally emphasizes rapid mobilization to defend national territory and delay a much larger attacking force until reinforcements can arrive. The role of anti-personnel mines in that scenario is clear, being sown to slow down infantry movements and hamper advances through vulnerable areas. Their disproportionate effect, at least in theory, is especially relevant for a country with a relatively tiny population compared to the length of its border.

At the same time, anti-personnel mines would form only one part of a much broader defensive system incorporating artillery, airstrikes, engineering obstacles, fortifications, and reserve forces. It should be noted that Finland also has a considerable armory of anti-tank and anti-vehicle mines, most of which are of local manufacture.

In general, Moscow has been restructuring its military command arrangements and starting to establish the foundations for a larger conventional presence across northern Europe.

In 2024, Russia reestablished the Leningrad Military District, an apparent response to Finland’s and Sweden’s subsequent entry into NATO.

The Leningrad Military District is responsible for a strategically important region that covers the approaches to St. Petersburg, areas bordering Finland, and territory extending toward the Arctic. Its reestablishment gives Russia a dedicated command structure for managing forces facing NATO across this northern sector.

While significant, the creation of a military district does not necessarily generate additional combat power.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to drain resources in terms of personnel, equipment, logistics, and more.

Nevertheless, Moscow’s longer-term plans point toward a substantial expansion of its ground forces and military infrastructure in areas facing Finland and the wider NATO alliance.

A central element of Russia’s reorganization is the formation of the 44th Army Corps in the Republic of Karelia, near Finland’s eastern border. The corps was established in 2024 as part of the wider effort to strengthen Russia’s military presence in the northwest.

Russia’s wider military development also encompasses the Kola Peninsula and approaches to the Arctic, where facilities support the Northern Fleet and its strategic nuclear submarine force.

Satellite imagery last year showed construction at the Lupche-Savino garrison near Kandalaksha, including facilities intended to accommodate an artillery brigade and at least part of an engineering brigade. The location is approximately 70 miles east of Finland’s border.

Earlier this year, a separate report by the Finnish Yle media outlet found that the Russian military was expanding a base in the town of Novaya Vilga to hold as many as 6,000 Russian troops. It is located about 100 miles from the Finnish border.

For Finland, the situation could change dramatically if the war in Ukraine winds down, and the Russian military assembles in greater strength closer to its borders.

Finland’s Military Intelligence Review 2026 assesses that Russia’s military reforms have not yet significantly increased its capabilities in its immediate vicinity. But it still anticipates a substantial increase in Russian military capabilities as circumstances permit and identifies Finland as a major direction for future force development after the war.

A ceasefire or settlement in Ukraine would not automatically enable Russia to launch a major offensive against Finland. A ceasefire could ease the immediate military pressure on Russia while still creating a serious economic and political challenge for the Kremlin. Russia’s wartime spending has sustained defense-sector production and employment, but winding that spending down risks exposing structural weaknesses.

With a ceasefire or settlement, Moscow would still need to rebuild units, replace equipment, replenish personnel, and establish the logistical capacity to sustain large-scale operations. However, there are indications that this is already happening, at least to a degree.

Recent imagery analysis indicates, for example, a significant buildup of newly delivered Russian armor, including new T-90M tanks, at the 22nd Central Tank Reserve Base, located around 450 miles from the Finnish border.

Finland’s planned acquisition of anti-personnel mines fits into a broader effort to prepare for a potential future conflict. Prominent in the minds of Finnish — and other Nordic — defense planners is the fact that Russia is rebuilding the command structures and infrastructure needed to support a larger military presence near NATO’s northern frontier, even as the war in Ukraine limits its immediate ability to do so.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Alaric Jackson has a history of violent outbursts. Still, it was surprising to see the Rams star offensive tackle punch Buffalo Bills linebacker Bradley Chubb on the SoFi Stadium field moments after the Bills defeated the Rams 37-34 in overtime on Monday.

Players were milling around midfield, exchanging jerseys and making small talk when Chubb appeared to say something to Jackson, who was chatting with another Bills player. Jackson immediately marched over to Chubb and slugged him once in the face, knocking a cap from his head.

Players from both teams intervened, and the episode was documented on video by the NFL. Based on precedent, Jackson, 28, likely faces a suspension.

One year ago, Detroit Lions safety Brian Branch was suspended for one game after he smacked Kansas City Chiefs receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster in the helmet after a game.

At the time, Branch spoke to reporters in the locker room and admitted his actions were “childish.”

Jackson did not make himself available for an interview after Monday’s incident, although Chubb did.

“It’s just emotions, you know what I mean? Emotional game. It was a close game,” Chubb said. “And, you know, they always catch the second guy. So, I let him swing. And then my teammates held me back, and I just chilled.”

Jackson averted a suspension ahead of this season when authorities declined to file formal criminal charges after he was arrested on suspicion of felony domestic violence. Police responded to a call at a home in West Hills on June 8 at 11 p.m. and said in a report that the 6-foot-7, 338-pound Jackson was arrested for “willfully inflicting physical or corporal injury resulting in a ‘traumatic condition’ [such as a bruise, scratch, swelling, or internal injury] on an intimate partner.”

Jackson, who is in his sixth season with the Rams and fourth as quarterback Matthew Stafford’s blindside protector, entered a diversion program that required him to complete probation and anger management classes. Four months earlier, he had signed a three-year contract that included $35 million in guarantees. He is scheduled to earn $18.4 million this season.

In 2024, Jackson was suspended for two games by the NFL for violating its personal conduct policy following a lawsuit filed by a woman alleging he recorded her without her consent during sex. The woman, who also reported it to the league, alleged that Jackson refused to delete the video and taunted her with it. The civil suit was dismissed.