A UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter takes off from Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek on Monday as the United States and South Korea kick off their Freedom Shield joint military exercise. Photo by Yonhap
SEOUL, March 9 (UPI) — The United States and South Korea began their annual Freedom Shield joint military exercise on Monday, as speculation swirled that Washington may be shifting some military assets from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East amid its widening conflict with Iran.
About 18,000 South Korean troops will participate in the exercise, which runs through March 19 and includes command-post simulations and field training drills. U.S. Forces Korea has not disclosed the number of American personnel involved.
The drills come as local media reports have raised questions about whether U.S. military equipment stationed in South Korea could be redeployed to support operations in the Middle East.
South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported Sunday that U.S. C-5 and C-17 transport aircraft landed at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, south of Seoul, late last month before departing between Wednesday and Saturday.
The aircraft movements followed reports that U.S. Forces Korea relocated some Patriot missile defense systems to Osan from other American bases in the country.
Two Patriot batteries deployed with USFK were temporarily rotated to the Middle East in June last year during strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, before returning to South Korea in October.
The Patriot system detects, tracks and intercepts drones, cruise missiles and short-range or tactical ballistic missiles at low- to mid-range altitudes. It forms a key component of South Korea’s layered missile defense network designed to counter threats from North Korea.
U.S. Forces Korea said last week it could not comment on the relocation or movement of its assets due to operational security.
South Korea’s Defense Ministry also declined to address the reports directly during a briefing Monday.
“There is constant communication between the U.S. military and our side,” ministry spokeswoman Jeong Bit-na told reporters. “We are always communicating closely to ensure that there are no security concerns or gaps.”
She added that the Freedom Shield exercise was proceeding as planned.
“The South Korea-U.S. joint exercise is being implemented normally regardless of the situation in the Middle East, and we are thoroughly implementing it as agreed and planned,” Jeong said.
The drills come as the administration of South Korean President Lee Jae Myung seeks to stabilize relations with Pyongyang, which routinely condemns the allies’ joint exercises as rehearsals for invasion.
The number of field training exercises during this year’s Freedom Shield has been reduced to 22, down from 51 conducted during the previous iteration of the drills under the conservative government of impeached former President Yoon Suk Yeol.
North Korea recently concluded a major congress of the ruling Workers’ Party, where leader Kim Jong Unpledged to expand the country’s nuclear arsenal and improve its delivery systems and operational capabilities.
At the same time, Kim appeared to leave the door open to future negotiations with the United States, saying there was “no reason” the two sides could not improve relations if Washington abandons what he described as its hostile policy.
Kim has previously said he has “fond memories” of U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he met three times during Trump’s first term. South Korean officials have pointed to Trump’s planned visit to China later this month as a possible opportunity to revive diplomacy with Pyongyang.
Kim has continued to take a hostile tone toward Seoul, however, recently describing South Korea as “the most hostile entity.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s newly-elected supreme leader. While some Iranians have celebrated, many are dismayed the 56-year-old cleric, accused of human rights abuses, has ascended to the country’s highest office.
Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader, just over a week after the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in joint United States-Israeli strikes that have plunged the entire region into a sprawling war.
The 56-year-old, who will now be charged with leading the Islamic Republic through the biggest crisis in its 47-year history, was named by clerics as his father’s successor on Sunday.
Key leaders, Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the armed forces were quick to pledge their backing to the new leader.
Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who has been tasked with steering Iran’s security strategy since the US and Israel launched their all-out offensive, called for unity around the new supreme leader.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf welcomed the choice, saying that following the new supreme leader was a “religious and national duty”.
Mojtaba Khamenei has never run for office or been subjected to a public vote, but has for decades been a highly influential figure in the inner circle of the supreme leader, cultivating deep ties to the IRGC.
In recent years, Khamenei has increasingly been touted as a top potential replacement for his father. His selection could be a sign that more hardline factions in Iran’s establishment retain power, and could indicate that the government has little desire to agree to a deal or negotiations in the short term as the war enters its second week.
Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem described Khamenei as his “father’s gatekeeper”.
“He adopts the positions of his father with respect to the United States, with respect to Israel. So we are expecting a confrontational leader. We’re not expecting any moderation,” he said.
“However, if this war comes to an end and he is still alive, and he is able to continue running the country, there is going to be big potential… to find new routes for Iran,” Hashem said.
Rami Khouri, a distinguished public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut, said Khamenei’s appointment signals “continuity” and that it remains to be seen whether the new supreme leader will push for negotiations to end the war.
Either way, he said, the appointment was “an act of defiance”. Iran is “telling the Americans and Israelis, ‘You wanted to get rid of our system? Well … this is a more radical person than his father who was assassinated,’” he said.
Heidari Alekasir, a member of the Assembly of Experts that was tasked with choosing the supreme leader, said the candidate had been picked based on the late Khamenei’s advice that Iran’s top leader should “be hated by the enemy” instead of praised by it.
“Even the Great Satan [US] has mentioned his name,” the senior cleric said in reference to US President Donald Trump’s earlier statement that Mojtaba Khamenei would be an “unacceptable” choice for him to lead Iran.
Israel’s military had previously warned any successor that “we will not hesitate to target you”.
On Sunday, Trump again promised to exert influence over who is selected as Iran’s next supreme leader, saying that, without Washington’s approval, whoever is picked for the role is “not going to last long”.
The selection of Khamenei’s son is certain to enrage Trump.
Supreme leader not decided by ‘Epstein’s gang’
The 88-member Assembly of Experts said on Sunday that it “did not hesitate for a minute” in choosing a new supreme leader, despite “the brutal aggression of the criminal America and the evil Zionist regime”.
Earlier, the clerical body had indicated it had reached a majority consensus on its choice, without naming who it was, with one member saying, “The path of Imam Khomeini and the path of the martyr Imam Khamenei has been chosen. The name of Khamenei will continue.”
Mojtaba Khamenei studied under conservative clerics in the seminaries of Qom, the heart of Shia theological learning, and holds the clerical rank of hojjatoleslam, a mid-level clerical ranking.
Ali Khamenei, who led Iran for 37 years, succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had led the 1979 revolution, was killed in a US-Israeli strike on Tehran on February 28, at the outset of the war, which has now unleashed chaos throughout the Middle East.
The Israeli military has already threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the war may only end once Iran’s military and leaders have been wiped out.
“He’s going to have to get approval from us,” Trump told ABC News. “If he doesn’t get approval from us, he’s not going to last long,” Trump said on Sunday of any new supreme leader.
Iranian officials have rejected Trump’s push to be involved in the selection of the next leader, insisting that only Iranians can decide the future of their country.
On Friday, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf appeared to ridicule the US president’s demands.
“The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf wrote on X, referring to the late sex offender who had ties to rich and powerful figures in the US.
Dark skies
As clerics selected the new supreme leader, a dark haze hung over Tehran after Israel struck five oil facilities in and around the capital city overnight, setting them ablaze and filling the skies with acrid smoke.
As the war extended into its ninth day, the IRGC said they had enough supplies to continue their drone and missile attacks across the Middle East for up to six months.
IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said Iran had so far used only first- and second-generation missiles, but would use “advanced and less-used long-range missiles” in the coming days.
Trump again refused to rule out sending American ground troops into Iran, but continued to insist that the war was all but won, despite the ongoing Iranian missile and drone strikes.
Analysts warn there is no clear path to ending the conflict, which US and Israeli officials say could last a month or longer.
Middle Eastern crises seldom stay localized. They frequently go well beyond the battlefield in terms of politics, strategy, and psychology. Officials in Beijing, Moscow, Taipei, and Kyiv will be keeping a tight eye on events surrounding Iran today, in addition to those in Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv. Power perceptions are shaped by situations like this, and in international politics, perception can be almost as important as actual power.
The current state of affairs presents an unsettling question for China and Russia. A large-scale military operation against a prominent regional actor will unavoidably send signals about the balance of power in the international system if it continues without significant opposition from other big states. The Middle East is not where those signals will end. They will visit other geopolitical hotspots, like Taiwan and Ukraine, where credibility is crucial to deterrence.
Iran has progressively evolved into more than simply another diplomatic friend in Beijing’s eyes. It now plays a part in China’s larger Eurasian economic and strategic strategy. Beijing has been building energy and transportation networks that connect western China to the Arabian Sea through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Chinese planners considering long-term energy security have taken note of the geographical proximity of the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Iran’s Jask Oil Terminal.
Beijing has long sought variety, which these lines provide. Chinese strategists have been concerned about dependence on maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca for decades. The energy lifelines of the second-largest economy in the world could be threatened by any interruption there. Iran fits into China’s attempt to lessen that vulnerability because of its location and resources. Trade in energy has already strengthened ties between the two nations. Iran has quietly emerged as a major supplier of cheap crude to China in spite of U.S. sanctions. Both nations are able to avoid some aspects of the Western financial architecture since many of those transactions go through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System and are settled in renminbi.
However, the partnership has grown beyond oil. Beijing and Tehran signed a long-term strategic agreement in 2021 with the goal of working together on infrastructure, energy, and technology for decades. Later, China backed Iran’s admission to groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Then came a diplomatic surprise: Beijing assisted in mediating the reestablishment of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, a development that surprised many Western observers.
Taken together, these actions indicated a significant development. China was starting to portray itself not only as a regional economic force but also as a diplomatic player with the ability to influence its political environment.
That ambition makes the current moment particularly sensitive for Beijing. Governments in the Middle East and a large portion of the Global South frequently evaluate great powers based on their actions during times of crisis rather than their words during times of peace. Some capitals may discreetly reevaluate how reliable such support would be in an actual security crisis if China seems unwilling to protect the strategic environment surrounding its alliances.
The ramifications go well beyond Iran. Chinese officials have made it clear time and time again that they would not support Taiwan’s formal independence efforts and will not allow outside meddling in the Taiwan Strait. The legitimacy of those warnings is just as important to deterrence as military prowess. Some Washington policymakers may assume that China is unlikely to take more aggressive action in other areas if Beijing’s response to significant geopolitical shocks involving its partners primarily consists of diplomatic criticism.
Russia faces a different—but no less consequential—set of calculations. Moscow has positioned itself as a major Middle Eastern political mediator for the majority of the last ten years through its military engagement in Syria. Russian soldiers established a key base on the Mediterranean coast and assisted in stabilizing Bashar al-Assad’s regime starting in 2015. From such a vantage point, Moscow participated in almost all meaningful discussions regarding the future of the area.
However, that impact has been diminished. The political landscape has drastically changed as a result of the fall of the Syrian government and the growing power of actors supported by the West in Damascus. In addition to losing a strategic ally, Russia has also lost a significant portion of the regional clout it developed over the course of almost 10 years of diplomatic and military engagement.
In that context, Iran now occupies a far more important place in Moscow’s strategic thinking than it once did. Defense and energy cooperation are two areas where the two nations’ relationship has grown. Iranian drones have contributed to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, establishing a clear connection between the conflict in Eastern Europe and events in the Middle East. The message would reverberate much beyond the immediate battlefield if Iran were to sustain a significant military defeat at the hands of a concerted operation by the United States and Israel. While opposing major powers stayed mostly on the sidelines, observers from all around the world would see that Washington still had the capability to change regional dynamics.
These impressions build up in geopolitics. Credibility develops gradually, frequently over years, but it can deteriorate rapidly. Some governments may start to doubt the geopolitical benefit of aligning with Moscow if Russia seems incapable—or unwilling—to react when a close ally is under severe strain. However, competing nations might feel more confident to test Russian interests in other disputed areas, such as the Black Sea or Ukraine. However, Moscow’s choices are far from straightforward. In order to lessen the impact of Western sanctions, Russia has been fostering stronger commercial connections with a number of Gulf governments in recent years. Openly supporting Iran might make those relations more difficult. But staying completely silent runs the danger of conveying a contrary message: that when tensions rise, Russian alliances provide little strategic defense.
It seems unlikely that either China or Russia will move quickly to engage in direct combat. There would be significant risks of escalation. However, great-power competition seldom relies solely on choices made on the battlefield. There are plenty of other ways to be influential. Both nations have permanent seats in the UN Security Council. They can guarantee that any military action is politically disputed on the international scene by imposing debates, contesting legal justifications, and introducing resolutions, even symbolic ones. Beyond the Security Council, diplomacy is also important. Sovereignty and non-intervention have long been valued in nations like South Africa, Brazil, and India. Even if it doesn’t instantly change the situation on the ground, coordinated pressure from a larger group of states could influence how the issue is portrayed worldwide.
Another option is economic levers. The energy markets continue to be extremely vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Major exporters continue to have the power to affect supply and pricing decisions by working with producers in organizations like OPEC+. Even little changes can serve as a reminder to the globe that regional conflicts have far-reaching economic repercussions. Great powers are also capable of sending quieter signals. Regional balances are not changing in isolation, as seen by intelligence collaboration, defensive technology transfers, and conspicuous naval deployments in nearby waterways. These actions convey that other important actors are keeping a close eye on them even while they avoid open confrontation.
Ultimately, this moment’s significance goes well beyond Iran. Expectations about how power functions in the international system are gradually shaped by incidents such as these. The precedent starts to take hold if armed action consistently reshapes regional orders without significant opposition from opposing nations. That precedent unavoidably affects Taiwan’s future for China. For Russia, it relates to both the larger security balance throughout Europe and the continuing conflict in Ukraine. Credibility is crucial in both situations.
Moments like this become inevitable tests if Beijing and Moscow want to maintain an international system where power is more widely spread. It is not always necessary to escalate conflict in order to respond. It often involves proving that significant changes in regional power will not happen completely unchallenged through diplomacy, economic pressure, and strategic signaling. There is meaning in silence as well. In places far from the Persian Gulf, how Tehran interprets that silence now could influence strategic decisions tomorrow.
Crude oil prices rise by as much 20 percent as sprawling regional conflict threatens global energy supplies.
Published On 9 Mar 20269 Mar 2026
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Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, amid the widening fallout of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose by as much as 20 percent on Sunday, topping $111 a barrel, as fears grew of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.
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US President Donald Trump, who campaigned heavily on cost-of-living concerns in the 2024 election, brushed off the surge.
“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
“ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
Crude oil prices have surged by about 50 percent since the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28.
Iranian threats and attacks in response have brought an effective halt to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of the global oil supply.
Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, three of the biggest producers in The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have been forced to cut production amid dwindling crude storage capacity due to the collapse of shipping through the waterway.
Iran and Israel have also launched strikes on key energy facilities in Iran amid the sprawling regional conflict.
Stocks in Asia fell sharply on Monday morning, as investors braced for the fallout of rising energy prices.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged about 6 percent in early trading, while South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled nearly 7 percent.
US stock futures, which are traded outside regular market hours, also saw substantial losses.
Futures tied to Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 were down by 1.7 percent, while those for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.90 percent.
March 8 (UPI) — The Pentagon on Sunday afternoon announced that a seventh U.S. service member has died during the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran.
The service member was seriously wounded during an attack on U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia on March 1, military officials said.
“Last night, a U.S. service member passed away from injuries received during the Iranian regime’s initial attacks across the Middle East,” U.S. Central Command said in a post on X.
“Major combat operations continue. The identity of the fallen warrior will be withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” CENTCOM said.
The seven service members have been killed during the first week of Operation Epic Fury, which the United States and Israel launched on Feb. 28.
Since the beginning of the onslaught, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes at its neighbors, some of which host U.S. bases and assets that are being used in the war.
A March 1 retaliatory strike on an Army sustainment unit based in Kuwait killed six service members and injured 18 others, whose remains returned to the United States on Saturday.
Overall, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have killed at least 20 people across the region, The New York Times reported, while between 800 and 1,300 hundred people in Iran have died during the widening conflict.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., speaks to the press outside the U.S. Capitol on Thursday. Earlier today, President Donald Trump announced Mullin would replace Kristi Noem as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo
Iranian state television has announced that the Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after a “decisive vote”. He’s the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by the United States on February 28.
VICKY Pattison and her husband Ercan Ramadan are making their way back to the UK after becoming stranded in Dubai amid the Iran war.
Last Saturday (February 28), Iran launched a barrage of rockets at nations across the Middle East after vowing revenge for Trump and Israel’shuge blitz on the rogue nation.
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Vicky and Ercan shared an update after fleeing Dubai in favour of nearby OmanCredit: InstagramThe pair shared they chartered a bus to take them and their friends across the borerCredit: InstagramThe star thanked the company for their help amid the crisis, and assured fans she was OKCredit: InstagramThe pair travelled for 11 hours, including spending three hours at the border on the busCredit: Instagram
Vicky was en-route with Ercan for a planned trip to Australia and New Zealand, and had a planned stop in Dubai when the attacks started.
She’s since only given small updates, noting how she didn’t want to speculate to scare her followers and was “limiting time spent on social media due to a growing amount of misinformation that feels really counterproductive to staying calm.”
However, she returned to Instagram today to share “a little update” on where she and Ercan were, after Dubai airport was also subject to a drone attack amid the evening of strikes, with both Iranian and Iraqi airspace closed as the conflicts intensify.
Sharing a photograph of herself and Ercan with a group of other people on a mini-bus this afternoon, she apologised for the “radio silence” over the past week, noting things were “changing so rapidly” and she didn’t want to say anything that could be deemed insensitive.
“We really appreciate all your messages of concern and just wanted to reassure everyone that we’re fine,” she wrote.
“After three cancelled flights and the realisation that we definitely weren’t going to make it on to Australia and New Zealand we wanted to try and get home as quickly and safely as possible.
“I understand that there are a lot of people still in Dubai feeling really calm and safe however, we wanted to be back to our babies, work and normality and we felt like Oman was our best option.”
The star went on to explain that she had arranged a public transfer van with friends, with the team driving for 11 hours to get to Oman – including two to three hours to cross the border.
“For anyone stuck in Dubai and wanting to get home via Oman, I will put more information on @vickysvacays,” she said. “I just don’t want to overwhelm or bore anyone on here.
“We are going to try and enjoy our last days away and explore Oman hopefully 🥹”
“The last week has been quite unsettled and we understand people feeling unsafe and uncertain,” she added. “We have experienced moments like that, but ultimately feel like it’s important we acknowledge our position of privilege.
“We are extremely grateful to be making our way home and are thinking of anyone feeling fearful or unsettled, anywhere in a world that is rapidly becoming an increasingly scary place to be.”
“Finally just a little Thankyou to @addressbeachresort and [the UAE government] for keeping us safe, calm and informed when possible 🩵”
Friends and fans were quick to send their well-wishes to the star, saying they were glad she and Ercan were somewhere safe.
“Glad you’re both okay! Not what you had planned, but such is life. Not long until you’re reunited with the boys” wrote one.
Candice Brown added: “So glad you are on your way back darling x”
“So happy you’re both safe, sending you all the love” wrote another.
Vicky and Ercan have limited their social media use to prevent spreading misinformationCredit: AlamyThe star said she was “extremely privileged” to charter a bus to drive her and her friends across the borderCredit: InstagramVicky and Ercan were in Dubai while on route to go to AustraliaCredit: Instagram/vickypattisonThe couple have said that they are safeCredit: Instagram
WASHINGTON — President Trump promised that 2026 would be a bumper year for economic growth, but instead it has kicked off with job losses, rising gasoline prices and more uncertainty about America’s future.
In his State of the Union address less than two weeks ago, the Republican president confidently told the country: “The roaring economy is roaring like never before.” The latest batch of data on jobs, pump prices and the stock market suggests that Trump’s roar has started to sound far more like a whimper.
There is a gap between the boom that Trump has predicted and the volatile results he has produced — one that could set the tone in this year’s midterm elections as he tries to defend his party’s majorities in the House and Senate. With Trump’s tariffs uncertainty ongoing, the war in Iran has suddenly created inflationary concerns regarding oil and natural gas.
The White House says it is still early in the year and stronger growth is coming.
No signs of a jobs boom
“WOW! The Golden Age of America is upon us!!!” Trump posted on social media Feb. 11 after the monthly jobs report showed gains of 130,000 jobs in January.
Since then, the job market has evaporated in worrisome ways.
Friday’s employment report showed job losses of 92,000 in February. The January and December figures were revised downward, with December swinging to a loss of 17,000 jobs. Monthly data can be rocky, but a trend has emerged that shows an enduring weakness. Without the healthcare sector, the economy would have shed roughly 202,000 jobs since Trump became president in January 2025. His administration notes construction job gains outside of the housing sector, which it says point to future hiring growth.
Trump often claims that jobs are going to people born in the United States, rather than to immigrants. But the latest report punctured some of that argument.
The unemployment rate for people born in the U.S. has climbed over the last 12 months to 4.7% from 4.4%. This means a greater share of the people who Trump said would get jobs because of his immigration crackdown are, in fact, searching for work.
Prices at the pump are going up
“Slashing energy costs is among the most important actions we can take to bring down prices for American consumers,” Trump said in a February speech in Texas just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. “Because when you cut the cost of energy, you really cut — you just cut the cost of everything.”
The president has repeatedly told Americans that keeping gas costs low would be key to defeating inflation. He has talked up the decline, citing figures that were far below the national average to persuade the public that driving was getting cheaper.
But the strikes against Iran that began Feb. 28 have, for the moment, crushed that narrative. Prices at the pump have jumped 19% over the last month to a national average of $3.45, according to AAA. The investment bank Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that, if higher oil prices persist, inflation could rise from its 2.4% reading in January to 3% by the end of the year.
The administration is banking on plans to contain any energy price increases, essentially betting that either the conflict will end shortly or the administration can succeed in getting more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump advisors on Sunday sought to assure anxious Americans that surging fuel prices are a short-term problem.
“We never know exactly the timeframe of this,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on CNN’s “State of the Union. “But in the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.”
Stocks are off their highs
“You know, we set the all-time record in history with the Dow going to 50,000,” Trump said Thursday at the White House.
This frequently repeated talking point has grown stale. The Dow Jones industrial average, one of Trump’s preferred measures of success, has dropped 5% over the last month. Stocks are up during his presidency, just as they were when Democrat Joe Biden was president. The recent decline could be reversed if the war with Iran ends and companies see solid profits over the next year and beyond. The recent dip, however, should be a warning sign as the administration has stressed the importance of more people investing in the stock market through vehicles such as “Trump accounts” for children.
The stock market has become a barometer of how people feel about the economy, with stock investors tending to have more confidence and those without money in the markets being more pessimistic.
Joanna Hsu, the director of the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, noted that in February a “sizable” increase in sentiment among people owning stocks “was fully offset by a decline among consumers without stock holdings.”
Productivity is up, but workers aren’t benefiting
Trump can point to a win in that the economy has become more productive — generating more value for each hour of work. That is a positive sign for long-term growth in the U.S. and a reflection of its strong tech sector.
Business sector labor productivity climbed 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the Labor Department reported Thursday. But the challenge is that the gains might not be spread to workers in the form of higher pay as labor’s share of income last year fell to the lowest level on record, noted Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, a nonprofit aligned with liberal economic issues.
Economy grew at a faster pace under Biden
“Under the Biden administration, America was plagued by the nightmare of stagflation, meaning low growth and high inflation — a recipe for misery, failure and decline,” Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
The scoreboard tells a far different story, one that makes Biden’s track record in 2024 look better than Trump’s performance last year. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace during Biden’s last year, compared with 2.2% under Trump in 2025.
As for inflation, the primary measure used by the Federal Reserve is the personal consumption expenditures price index. It was 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.
Trump has staked his economic argument on doing better than Biden. But while he has avoided the inflation spikes that haunted Biden’s presidency — amid the height of the COVID-19 pandemic — Trump has not delivered stronger growth or more hiring.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Over the last seven days, we have watched a joint air campaign unlike what we have ever seen before. New capabilities and evolved threats have made headlines as the world watched much of the Middle East become a free-fire zone. At the same time, many questions surrounding how long the war will take and its true scope and goals grow louder. These calls for clarity are becoming more pronounced globally, as well, as the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a heart attack of sorts, with energy shipments stopped on the strategic waterway’s northern edge.
While missile and drone launches have decreased significantly, these weapons continue to score major hits. Beyond U.S. military-related sites in Gulf Arab states, Iran continues to pummel energy production infrastructure. There are real concerns about the ability to defend against these attacks over the long term as interceptor stocks dwindle.
The London insurance market is willing and able to cover vessels looking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to Gallagher https://t.co/rUogubsv6g
All this is occurring while Iran is experiencing a power vacuum the likes of which it has never experienced. As the U.S. and Israel ramp up strikes across the country during the transition from standoff to direct attacks, what will come of Iran’s fractured government remains a total unknown. Fears are growing that the default control of Iran could fall to its most well-armed and fanatical arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a top possibility we laid out in our feature published before the strikes commenced.
So much has happened in one week, and we were right there providing rolling coverage and breakouts nearly around the clock. Now, once again, we look at the present. Here’s what’s going on as we flow through day eight of the war.
LATEST UPDATES
We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.
UPDATE: 4:29 PM EST-
Check out our feature on the major alarm bells that should be ringing after Iran successfully targeted multiple missile defense radars in the region.
Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call
Iran’s successful targeting of prized missile defense radars in the Middle East highlights global vulnerabilities.
More video has emerged from the dignified transfer of the remains of six soldiers killed in Kuwait on March 1.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attended the dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base of the 6 U.S. Army soldiers killed during an Iranian strike on their operations center. 🇺🇸Capt. Cody Khork 🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens 🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Nicole… pic.twitter.com/akSQntnUnM
Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader in the wake of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, issued a direct threat against Trump via X.
We will relentlessly avenge the blood of our of our Leader and our people. Trump must pay and will pay. #Trumpmustpay
— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 7, 2026
Meanwhile, in Iraq, pro-Iranian members of parliament are shouting the long-familiar phrases “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America.”
Members of parliament from the pro-Iranian factions in the Iraqi parliament are shouting “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America” https://t.co/78WrtfLsvK
Given the ambiguity of the situation, the Kurds say they are not rushing into Iran.
“Certainly, we are staying neutral as Iraqi Kurds b/c there’s no clarity for us on US policy,” a KRG official said. “Our assessment is there can’t be regime change w/o boots on the ground and that the US is not sending [them].” @BarakRavid, @MarcACaputohttps://t.co/kKj6GWOCHs
To counter Iranian drone and missile fire, a U.S. Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated near the American embassy in Baghdad.
A Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated a short time ago in the area of the American embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, due to reported drone and missile fire. pic.twitter.com/f2VOtE1ZbU
U.S. IndoPacific Command took to X to dispute some claims about the recent sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena by a USN fast attack submarine.
🚫 Iran claims IRIS Dena was unarmed – FALSE ✅ Law of Armed Conflict authorized the use of force to target and destroy valid military targets – TRUE ✅ U.S. forces planned for and Sri Lanka provided life-saving support to survivors in accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict -… pic.twitter.com/DdY5RNFUYf
— U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (@INDOPACOM) March 7, 2026
The IDF said it is continuing to strike Iranian ballistic missile production sites.
🎯 STRUCK: 2 main ballistic missile production sites in Parchin and Shahrud.
Over the past week, hundreds of IAF fighter jets struck the Iranian regime’s production industries, which are used for the development and production of missiles and weapons.
The IDF launched strikes Saturday evening on Iran’s national oil facilities in Tehran for the first time since the start of the war, targeting dozens of fuel storage tanks, YNET News reported, citing Israeli officials.
“The attack was carried out under directives from the political leadership and with IDF support, marking a significant escalation in Israel’s campaign against Iranian regime infrastructure,” the outlet explained.
An Israeli security official says recent strikes targeted fuel tanks used by Iran’s regime, adding pressure on the government is increasing and it may soon struggle to provide citizens with basic necessities. “We have not said the last word,” the official said. – N12 https://t.co/5yX69pUMl2
The Israel Defense Forces says it’s demolished a majority of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers, causing the number of missiles targeting Israel and other countries in the region to fall throughout the week, Bloomberg News reported.
More than 60% of such launchers have been “neutralized and destroyed,” Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff of the IDF, said in a televised statement on Thursday. Zamir did not say how many had been struck, but the IDF had cited the number as 300 earlier that day.
Israeli assessments say Iran now has about 100 operational missile launchers remaining out of roughly 420 before the war.
Around 150 launchers were destroyed, while another 150 were struck and buried in underground sites, leaving them currently unusable. pic.twitter.com/LnYpNdGIm0
We are getting new satellite images of bomb damage in Iran from Vantor. The images show the airport and port in the city of Bushehr, which sits along the northeastern shore of the Persian Gulf. We also get a shot of the tunnel entrances at the underground facility in Natanz and what looks like a vehicle destroyed nearby, possibly a short-range air defense system.
The entrance to the naval base doesn’t look to inviting anymore:
We are also getting a satellite view of the destruction at Tehran International from the IAF’s strikes there last night:
Satellite imagery shows that at least 17 aircraft, most of which appear to be passenger planes, were destroyed in last night’s US and Israeli attacks on Mehrabad International Airport.
Another drone strike on a highrise tower in Dubai:
UPDATE: 1:20 PM EST—
Israel is now clarifying its attack on Iran’s international airport, stating they targeted aircraft used by the IRGC for weapons transfers to proxies. These aircraft are well known and include some of the country’s last airworthy 747s.
STRUCK: 16 IRGC Quds Force aircraft used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah.
The IAF conducted a wave of precise strikes in Tehran, targeting military infrastructure at Mehrabad Airport, a central hub used by the IRGC to arm and fund its terror proxies across the Middle East.… pic.twitter.com/ZbZJMvikI6
South Korea is rushing deliveries of SAMs to the UAE as the interceptor crunch deepens:
South Korea announced that it will send around 30 ballistic missile interceptors to the UAE via C-17 right tomorrow. It would appear that they brought ROKAF’s reserves. Among the 10 batteries under contract, currently, two M-SAM-II batteries are operating in the UAE. The… pic.twitter.com/WIA3bQE0oo
The scarcity of interceptors continues to raise alarms amongst allies around the globe:
Bloomberg: “Several European Union states warned at a closed-door meeting in Brussels this week that there is a shortage of interceptors across the world, according to people familiar with the matter.”https://t.co/UNB27op4nb
Another round of B-2 strikes appears to be on the way. It will be interesting to see if they recover in Diego Garcia this time instead of the United States:
Emirati fighters are seen prowling over the Gulf Of Oman in search of Iranian drones to kill.
Emirati Vipers and Mirages on counter-UAS patrols in vicinity of Fujairah Port and the surrounding oil infrastructure. These are also flown much farther out for forward intercepts. pic.twitter.com/6DQuvimTTO
More indications that the Kurds are going to go into Iran, but just how shallow those movements would be isn’t clear.
BREAKING: The Secretary-General of Khabat, a Kurdish organization based in Iraq, tells Al Jazeera that Kurdish fighters in Iraq will “likely” stage a ground operation in Iran, confirming communication with the US
The Iranian drone attack on Dubai’s international airport may have been targeting the air traffic control tower. It is possible that this radar is tied into the military’s air defense architecture, but even if it is not, it would be another blow to the economy of the country as it would impact air travel.
An unconfirmed report states that the US warned the Iranian warship Dena to abandon ship multiple times before the Los Angeles class fast attack submarine sunk it via torpedo. This is supposedly coming from one of the sailors aboard that survived.
An Iranian sailor who was killed when the warship Dena was struck by the US near Sri Lanka had called his father shortly beforehand, saying American forces had issued two warnings for the crew to abandon the vessel, a source close to the family told Iran International.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 7, 2026
UPDATE 12:25 PM EST—
Iran is going after the heart of Saudi oil production.
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted and destroyed 16 drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field, one of the kingdom’s largest energy sites producing about 1 million barrels per day. The defense ministry did not say where the drones came from.https://t.co/MuYLumDuPY
There are additional indications that America’s involvement in this conflict will be longer than some anticipated:
A joint letter from the Commanding General and Command Chief of the Air National Guard have published a letter to their subordinates indicating that their continued support will be necessary in the weeks ahead.
Israel also says the chief of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) just flew a combat mission over Iran.
There are reports of additional US wounded from Epic Fury, but CENTCOM tells us that the tally still stands at six troops killed and 10 seriously wounded. This could be due to a delay in information or just erroneous reports, and we will keep you posted.
What appears to be a HIMARS launcher firing a rocket (likely PrSM ballistic missile, the first of which was used operationally in this war) from the beach in Bahrain. It hasn’t been clear where the United States is firing these weapons from, but it would appear that, assuming this video is authentic, Bahrain is one of those locales. It is just 125 miles from Bahrain to Iran, so PrSM would be able to reach nearly two hundred miles into Iran from this distance.
Footage confirms a U.S. M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launching a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) toward Iran from Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/aQBubFQEYS
Israel says it destroyed Iran’s central hub of its air defense efforts:
⭕️The IDF dismantled the air defense situation room of the IRGC Air Force, responsible for the aerial situational assessment and to defend Iran’s airspace.
Additionally, the Israeli Air Force struck air defense systems, a site used to manufacture & launch ballistic missiles,… pic.twitter.com/DYNKhz03e3
B-1B bombers are now operating out of RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. This comes after the U.K. government denied US access to Fairford and Diego Garcia. We should expect bombers in Diego Garcia soon. These will likely include B-2 and possibly B-52s. Forward deploying the bombers will drastically increase sortie rates and put less stress on aerial refueling assets.
USAF B-1B Lancer heavy bomber landing in Britain, following a mission that saw it take off from the U.S. and strike Iran. pic.twitter.com/idujAR9eeY
Yesterday, a total of 4x B-1B “Lancer” bombers departed the USA heading towards Europe. 1 airframe, which used the callsign “PIKE72” (86-0120 #AE6BFA) went to RAF Fairford, while the other 3 aircraft… pic.twitter.com/XMFgf2mwFv
While Iranian launches have decreased, they certainly are far from stopping. Just overnight alone, Iran launched nearly 140 weapons at the UAE alone.
Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles and 121 drones at UAE overnight. Fifteen of the missiles were shot down, one fell into the sea. All drones intercepted except two: MoD
One drone slipped through and hit Dubai’s international airport.
Multiple MQ-9s have been lost over Iran in the conflict so far, but they have been extremely effective in taking out all types of Iranian targets, from missile launchers to drones to fighter aircraft to vessels. As we noted in our previous update, they are also far more expendable and less risky to deploy deep in Iran than crewed alternatives. But as we have explored in depth, air supremacy over Iran has not been achieved and won’t for some time.
Another US MQ-9 Reaper UCAV was shot down by IRGC Aerospace Force air defense over Hormozgan province. Some sources write that this is an Israeli Hermes-900, but this is clearly US MQ-9 with Hellfire missiles pic.twitter.com/7nvOEEoGUz
Iran’s new leadership has stated that the country will stop attacking its neighbors if they do not participate in attacks on Iran. Iranian officials have also made clear that they see the basic act of hosting U.S. bases as contributing to the current campaign. The drones and missiles have continued to be launched at Arab Gulf states, regardless.
This is a misinterpretation, btw, which the President’s office corrected.
#Iran’s President has issued a new video message: The idea of Iran surrendering unconditionally is a dream they will take to their graves… Interim Leadership Council decided yesterday to end strikes on neighboring countries unless Iran is attacked from those territories. pic.twitter.com/TPyMSVPLWz
Some in the Iranian parliament are not pleased with even indicating the country may cease its retaliation efforts aimed at Arab countries across the Persian Gulf:
Iranian parliament member is furious about the remarks made by Iran’s president, Pezeshkian, today.
Iranian MP says: “Mr. Pezeshkian’s weak, unprofessional, and publicly unacceptable televised address has made it the definitive duty of the Presidium and members of the Assembly… https://t.co/D1tF98QV4D
U.S. intel agencies warned prior to Operation Epic Fury that favorable regime change in Iran is unlikely to occur regardless of the military operation used to achieve it, according to The Washington Post.
NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America’s 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵
The lack of preparedness by the Uited Kingdom in responding to the conflict is becoming an issue back home and internationally.
EXC: The US first asked about the use of UK bases to attack Iran on February 11, SIXTEEN days before the first missiles flew. The first warship HMS Dragon will not sail until next week, by which point at least 26 days will have passed https://t.co/tXRyQ2Gq5A
Jordan was “fucking furious,” a former minister with friends in Amman says. “The Emiratis, Kuwaitis, and even the Canadians are all asking, ‘What the fuck are you doing? Whose side are you on?’” The Emiratis pointed out that Britain was failing to help protect the 240,000 British… https://t.co/648pMme7C8
The United Kingdom is moving ahead with its deployment of Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to help in the counter-drone mission after a successful attack on the RAF’s base there that originated in Lebanon.
The RAF has also shared imagery of Typhoon fighters operating in Qatar to help defend against drone attacks.
Four RAF Typhoon aircraft have deployed from RAF Coningsby to Qatar, strengthening the UK’s air presence in the Middle East.
Operating alongside 12 Squadron and the Qatari Typhoon squadron, the aircraft will support Bahraini and Emirati air defence. pic.twitter.com/3rzhN7UMB0
A stunning image of the destroyed AN/TYP-2 anti-ballistic missile radar, one of a number of prized radars that have been struck by Iranian weapons. We have a major story coming on this and its implications today. This is a scenario we have been warning about for years. Stay tuned.
Photos have now confirmed the destruction of a AN/TPY-2 Forward Based X-band Transportable Radar operated by the U.S. Army, following an Iranian drone attack earlier this week targeting Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The AN/TPY-2 is the primary ground-based air surveillance… pic.twitter.com/54QyQCxNVW
Another commercial vessel appears to have been attacked in the Persian Gulf:
Israel is back to fighting on two fronts, with major operations in Lebanon ongoing since Hezbollah broke the ceasefire in retaliation for Israel’s air campaign against Iran.
Local sources tell me that the IDF have reportedly conducted an air assault near the village of Al-Nabi Shayth in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley.
Reports state that China is working with Iran to get safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait. China has a high degree of dependence on energy resources from the Middle East.
China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, sources say https://t.co/hJ1KsNsQ68
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 6, 2026
Trump again lauded the achievements of the air war so far, highlighting how the country’s conventional fighting capabilities have been ‘wiped out.’
🚨 JUST IN — PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “Their army is gone. Their navy is gone. Their communications are gone. Their leaders are gone. Two sets of their leaders are gone. They’re down to their third set. Their Air Force is wiped out entirely. Think of it.”
Iran’s attack on the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia appears to have put it completely out of action:
Airstrikes overnight pummeled Iran, including its largest airport:
Massive cloud of smoke rising over the port city of Bushehr in southern Iran following American/Israeli airstrikes on Saturday afternoon. pic.twitter.com/Cf0AGhGtuy
— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 7, 2026
1 of 2 | Iranians carry national flags and portraits of Iran’s Late Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as they participate in a rally to condemn the U.S.-Israeli military campaign after Friday prayer ceremonies outside Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque in Tehran, Iran. Photo by Hossein Esmaeil/UPI | License Photo
March 8 (UPI) — Members of the Iranian body charged with selecting the country’s new supreme leader said a candidate has been chosen, but no name has been revealed.
Mohsen Heydari, a member of the selection body, told Iran’s state-run ISNA news agency that a decision has been made on the successor to supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli air strikes Feb. 28.
“The most suitable candidate, approved by the majority of the Assembly of Experts, has been determined,” Heydari said.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, another member of the assembly, confirmed Heydari’s statement to the state-run Fars news agency.
Israeli forces have pledged to target Khamenei’s successor, as well as anyone involved in appointing a new supreme leader.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz revealed Sunday that Abu-al-Qasem Baba’iyan, who was appointed last week as the new head of the supreme leader’s military bureau, has been killed.
An Iranian missile strike injured five people Sunday in central Israel. One person was reported killed in an Iranian strike in Dubai on Saturday. Sunday morning strikes were also reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The strikes came just one day after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a pre-recorded statement apologizing to neighboring countries targeted in Iranian strikes, and pledged to suspend such attacks, unless attacks on Iran originated from those locations.
Meanwhile, two Israeli soldiers were killed Sunday morning in Lebanon, marking the country’s first fatalities in its campaign against Iran-aligned Hezbollah.
Lebanese health minister Rakan Nasreddine said at least 394 people have been killed in the country since Israeli strikes began last week.
Iran’s IRGC had earlier said they targeted radar systems in locations including Al-Kharj, home to Prince Sultan base.
Published On 8 Mar 20268 Mar 2026
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At least two people have been killed after a projectile fell on a residential location in Saudi Arabia‘s Al-Kharj city, Saudi authorities reported, as Iranian counterattacks on Gulf nations hosting US military assets entered a second week.
The Saudi civil defence said in a post on X on Sunday, without mentioning Iran, that an unspecified “military projectile” had hit a residential area in Al-Kharj, killing two foreign nationals – one Indian and one Bangladeshi – and injuring 12 people.
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had said earlier that it had targeted radar systems in locations including Al-Kharj governorate, which is home to the Prince Sultan airbase used by United States forces, and has come under repeated attack over the past week in the US and Israeli war against Iran.
Reporting from Doha, Al Jazeera’s Laura Khan said the projectile had landed on a residential site belonging to a maintenance and cleaning company.
“This is getting very volatile and dangerous for people across the Gulf,” she said. “It’s really important to emphasise that over 200 nationalities live and work across the Gulf nations. Many of these could be labourers.”
On Sunday, the Saudi Defence Ministry reported intercepting 15 drones, including an attempted attack in the diplomatic quarter of the capital Riyadh.
Kuwait, meanwhile, said an attack hit fuel tanks at its international airport, and Bahrain reported a water desalination plant had been damaged.
Sunday’s attacks came after Israeli warplanes hit five oil facilities around the Iranian capital, killing several people, according to a state oil executive, and blanketing the city in acrid smoke.
A spokesperson for the IRGC said Iran would retaliate if US-Israel attacks on its energy infrastructure did not let up.
“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” said the spokesperson.
As the war extended into its ninth day, the IRGC said it had enough supplies to continue drone and missile attacks across the Middle East for up to six months.
Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the Arab League, said Iran’s attacks on several member states were “reckless”, urging Tehran to reverse what he called a “massive strategic mistake”.
Iran’s Health Ministry said Sunday that at least 1,200 civilians had been killed and around 10,000 wounded since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.
WASHINGTON — The war between the United States and Iran entered its ninth day Sunday with no clear path toward deescalation, as President Trump said deploying American ground troops to the Middle East remains under consideration and Iran’s foreign minister rejected calls for a ceasefire.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Saturday, Trump declined to rule out the possibility of sending U.S. forces inside Iran, saying it could “possibly happen” as the conflict intensifies.
“There would have to be a very good reason,” Trump said. “I would say if we ever did that they would be so decimated that they wouldn’t be able to fight at the ground level.”
As Trump weighs sending ground troops into the widening conflict, Iran has signaled it is not prepared to halt fighting and said it would be ready to fight American soldiers if they descend into the country.
“We have very brave soldiers, who are waiting for any enemy who enters into our soil to fight with them, and to kill them and destroy them,” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
Araghchi added that Iran is not considering a ceasefire at this time. He said the United States and Israel would first need to explain “why they started this aggression and then guarantee there would be a permanent end of the war.”
“Unless we get to that, I think we need to continue fighting for the sake of our people and our security,” he said.
“We allow nobody to interfere in our domestic affairs. This is up to the Iranian people to elect their new leader,” Araghchi said. “It’s only the business of the Iranian people, and nobody else’s business.”
As of Sunday, it remained unclear who would succeed Iran’s former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, who was killed by American and Israeli strikes on the first day of the war. But the clerical body that will choose Iran’s next supreme leader appeared to be close to reaching a majority consensus on its pick, according to several news reports.
Trump said last week that Mojtaba Khamenei — the son of the former leader — would be an “unacceptable” choice.
As the war’s end remains nebulous, the battlefield actions continue to have an economic impact domestically, particularly on oil prices.
“If the war continues like this, there will be neither a way to sell oil nor have the ability to produce it,” Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post Sunday. He added the war would affect not just the U.S., but also the rest of the world “due to [Benjamin] Netanyahu’s delusions,” referring to the Israeli prime minister.
Israeli strikes on Sunday hit an oil storage facility in Tehran, marking what appears to be the first time a civil industrial facility has been targeted in the war.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that there’s currently a “fear premium in the marketplace” and sought to assure Americans that the soaring oil prices are a short-term problem.
“We never know exactly the timeframe of this,” Wright said in an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union.” “But in the worst case, this is a weeks, this is not a months thing.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed the same assurances in an interview with Fox News‘ “Sunday Morning Futures,” calling the rising gas prices a “short-term disruption.”
“Ultimately taking out the rogue Iranian regime is going to be a good thing for the oil industry,” Leavitt said. “Those prices are going to come back down just like they have over the course of the past year, because of President Trump’s American energy dominance agenda.”
The strike on the oil storage facility came as Netanyahu promised “many surprises” for the next phase of the conflict.
Iran also hit a desalination plant in Bahrain, and according to Araghchi, a U.S. airstrike damaged an Iranian desalination plan on Qeshm Island that is a critical drinking water supply in the parched deserts of the gulf.
“Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran,” Araghchi wrote in a post on X.
The United States has also come under scrutiny after evidence suggested that an American strike was likely responsible for an explosion at an Iranian elementary school that killed more than 165 people, most of them children.
Trump administration officials have said the matter is under investigation and that no determination has been made as to who was responsible for the strike. But on Saturday, Trump said Iran was to blame for the explosion.
“It was done by Iran,” Trump told reporters. “They’re very inaccurate as you know with their munitions. They have no accuracy whatsoever. It was done by Iran.”
Asked Sunday if Iran had any evidence that the strike was conducted by the Americans, Araghchi said it had to have been either the U.S. or Israeli military and said that Trump’s suggestion that Iran was responsible for the attack was “funny.”
“It is our school, these are our students and our girls and they are attacked by an American fighter, a jet fighter and they have been killed. Why [is] Iran responsible?” Araghchi said.
Bahrain has said an Iranian drone attack caused material damage to a water desalination plant in the country, marking the first time a Gulf nation has reported targeting any such facility during the eight days of the war between Iran and the US and Israel.
The attack on Sunday comes a day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island in southern Iran was attacked by the United States.
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“Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted. Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The US set this precedent, not Iran,” he said on X on Saturday.
While Tehran has not yet commented on the Bahrain attack, it has raised questions about the vulnerability of the Gulf countries, which depend on desalination plants for the majority of their water supply.
How important are water desalination plants to the Gulf region? Can water security in the Gulf be guaranteed amid a widening of military targets to include energy and other civilian sites?
What are desalination plants?
A desalination plant primarily converts seawater into water suitable for drinking purposes as well as for irrigation and industrial use.
The process of desalination involves removing salt, algae and other pollutants from seawater using a thermal process or membrane-based technologies.
According to the US Department of Energy, desalination systems “heat water so that it evaporates into steam, leaving behind impurities, and then condenses back into a liquid for human use”.
Meanwhile, membrane-based desalination involves “a class of technologies in which saline water passes through a semipermeable material that allows water through but holds back dissolved solids like salts”.
Reverse osmosis is the most popular membrane technology. Most countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) use reverse osmosis since it is an energy-efficient technique.
Why are desalination plants important to the Gulf?
Water is scarce in the Gulf region due to the arid climate and irregular rainfall. Countries in the Gulf also have very limited natural freshwater resources. Groundwater, together with desalinated water, accounts for about 90 percent of the region’s main water resources, according to a 2020 report by the Gulf Research Center.
But in recent years, as groundwater has also begun to deteriorate as a result of climate change, Gulf countries have begun relying heavily on energy-intensive seawater desalination to meet their water needs.
More than 400 desalination plants are located on the Arabian Gulf shores stretching from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Kuwait, providing water to one of the most water-scarce regions in the world.
According to a 2023 research paper published by the Arab Center Washington DC, GCC member states account for about 60 percent of global water desalination capacity, producing almost 40 percent of the total desalinated water in the world.
About 42 percent of the UAE’s drinking water comes from desalination plants, while that figure is 90 percent in Kuwait, 86 percent in Oman, and 70 percent in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia also produces more desalinated water than any other country.
Desalination has also played a crucial role in enabling economic development in the region, according to Naser Alsayed, an environmental researcher specialising in the Gulf states.
He noted that after the discovery of oil in the late 1930s, Gulf states had very limited natural freshwater resources and could not meet the demands created by population growth and expanding economic activity.
“Desalination plants were therefore introduced,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that the importance of desalinated water in supporting the Gulf’s development is often overlooked.
“As a result, targeting or disrupting desalination facilities would place much of the region’s economic stability and growth at significant risk,” he said.
“Secondly, desalination is the main source of freshwater for most GCC states, especially smaller and highly water-scarce countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Because this water is primarily used for human consumption, desalination carries a strong humanitarian dimension and is essential for sustaining daily life in the region, making any disruption to these facilities particularly significant for the population,” he added.
Iran also uses desalination plants, which have been installed in coastal areas such as Qeshm Island in the Gulf. But Iran also has many rivers and dams and is not as heavily reliant on desalination plants as other countries in the Gulf region.
If a desalination plant is attacked, what is the impact?
The Gulf’s heavy reliance on desalination plants has made it vulnerable during times of conflict.
During the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces intentionally destroyed most of Kuwait’s desalination capacity, and the damage to its water supply was severe.
Raha Hakimdavar, a hydrologist, told Al Jazeera that in the long-term, attacking these plants can also impact domestic food production, which mostly uses groundwater.
“However, the pressures from competing needs can divert this water away from domestic production. This can be especially challenging because the region is also highly food import dependent and is facing potential food security challenges due to the compromising of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Hakimdavar, who is a Senior Advisor to the Deans at Georgetown University in Qatar and the Earth Commons.
A 2010 CIA report (PDF) also warned that while “national dependence on desalinated water varies substantially among Persian Gulf countries, disruption of desalination facilities in most of the Arab countries could have more consequences than the loss of any industry or commodity.”
According to Alsayed, the impact of a plant being attacked in the region, however, depends on the local scenario.
“For Saudi Arabia, which is the least dependent on desalination and has significant geographic space, facilities on the Red Sea provide resilience. The UAE has 45 days of water storage aligned with its 2036 water security strategy, so contingency plans are in place to manage potential disruptions,” he said.
“The effects are likely to be felt more acutely in smaller states that are highly dependent on desalination like Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, which have minimal strategic reservoirs,” he noted.
“The most significant impact, in my view, is psychological,” Alsayed said. “Water is essential to human life, and the perception of risk can cause fear and panic, which is particularly challenging in the current environment in the region and where authorities are working to maintain calm.”
How can water security be guaranteed?
As attacks on Gulf countries continue, with energy and civilian infrastructure being targeted, Alsayed highlighted that it is important for GCC countries to view water security as a regional issue rather than an independent concern for each member state.
“The countries need to coordinate more closely and work together. The GCC has a strong platform to prepare for water challenges, but has not fully utilised it,” he said.
Alsayed noted that the GCC Unified Water Strategy 2035 called for all member states to have a national integrated energy and water plan by 2020, but this has not yet been achieved.
“Whether through unified desalination grids, shared regional strategic water reserves, or diversifying water resource goals, this is the way to usher a new era to strengthen Gulf water security,” he said.
Hakimdavar, the hydrologist, said there is no replacement for desalination in the GCC in the near-term.
But she added that the GCC countries can rely on strategic water storage reservoirs – many countries maintain large water reserves that can supply cities for several days or longer.
“Countries can also diversify water supply systems, and also invest in smaller, more distributed desalination plants powered by renewable energy to reduce reliance on a few very large facilities,” she added.
Tehran, Iran – Senior religious leaders have signalled that Iran’s government may soon announce a new leader as hardliners and sidelined reformists deliberate their futures amid the quickly escalating United States-Israeli war on Iran.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri – a top figure in the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which will appoint the new supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Tehran on February 28 – said the choice had to be made with care so it would be indisputable internally.
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“An almost decisive opinion has been reached. A significant majority has been formed, but at the same time, some obstacles have to be removed, which we hope will happen soon,” the head of the Qom Academy of Islamic Sciences said in a video released on Sunday by the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The top ultraconservative Muslim leader representing the holy Shia city of Mashhad in the Assembly of Experts, Ahmad Alamolhoda, said on Sunday that the leader has been chosen and the secretariat of the Assembly of Experts must soon announce the result.
Abbas Kaabi, a senior member of the Guardian Council, said on Friday that the powerful 12-member constitutional body was not given any names to consider for the next supreme leader by Khamenei during his lifetime, only attributes.
“He said: Among all attributes, the financial piety of the supreme leader is of primary importance because, given the important powers and responsibilities of leadership, if financial deviation occurs, it will spread to all other matters,” Kaabi was quoted as saying by the IRGC-affiliated Mehr news agency.
The religious leader also quoted Khamenei as pointing to “a rooted belief in the fundamentals of the [1979] Islamic revolution, having insight and knowledge of enemies and sedition, and especially being anti-arrogance and having faith and resistance in confronting America and the Zionist regime” as being among other top attributes for a future leader.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late supreme leader, is believed to be a frontrunner for the position as he enjoys wide backing from powerful commanders in the IRGC who have been launching missiles and drones across the region over the past week.
US President Donald Trump, who has said he wants to play a role in determining the future leadership of Iran, has objected to the younger Khamenei’s ascension.
The Israeli army has said it will try to assassinate Iran’s remaining leaders and has bombed their offices and gathering spots in Tehran, Qom and other cities. Israel and the US have repeatedly expressed their interest in changing the government of Iran.
Israeli media reported on Saturday that Asghar Hejazi, a senior religious leader who was Khamenei’s acting chief of staff, was killed in a series of overnight air strikes targeting an underground compound in downtown Tehran used by the supreme leader and other officials. Iran has not commented.
Reformists weigh in as Pezeshkian creates row
President Masoud Pezeshkian came under fire after he released a video from an undisclosed location on Saturday and apologised to regional neighbours who have been fighting off Iranian missiles and drones.
The armed forces leading the military attacks, including the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters of the IRGC and interim leadership council member and chief justice of the Supreme Court, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, quickly released statements to emphasise that the strikes would continue, with Iran as well as the US and Israel, saying they are ready for months of war if necessary.
The row prompted more hardliners, including religious leaders, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media, to call on the Assembly of Experts to move quickly to announce the next supreme leader. Ayatollah Hossein Nouri-Hamedani said the process should be expedited to “disappoint the enemy and preserve the unity and solidarity of the nation”.
The disagreement has broken out after reformist factions within the establishment have been pushed aside by hardliners in recent years while the conservatives also have lost favour among an increasingly disillusioned public.
Mohammad Khatami, a reformist religious leader who was president from 1997 to 2005, released a statement to mourn Khamenei last week but also signalled that he sees a future for a reformed Islamic Republic.
The establishment is in need of “reforming approaches and practices objected to by the people”, he said without naming any examples.
“Our path is the path of freedom, independence, people-centrism and fair living, and that is a difficult path to tread and requires wisdom and tolerance,” he said.
Khatami and the Reformist Front of Iran also released general calls for reform after thousands of people were killed during nationwide protests in January.
The Iranian government said “terrorists” backed by the US and Israel were responsible for the killings, but the United Nations and international humanitarian organisations blamed state forces for a lethal crackdown against peaceful protesters.
The leaders of the Reformist Front were arrested or summoned by Iranian intelligence and judicial authorities last month for what the establishment called an attempt to “disrupt the country’s political and social order” and working “for the benefit” of Israel and the US during the antigovernment protests.
Most have since been released on bail, but some remain incarcerated as do many of the tens of thousands of people believed to have been arrested during and in the aftermath of the protests.
Hassan Rouhani, the moderate religious leader who was president from 2013 to 2021 and who rejected being part of a reported power grab last month, has remained publicly silent during the deliberations over the next supreme leader.
Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, another influential figure, survived an assassination attempt last week, according to Iranian media.
Fuel reserves and oil refineries in Tehran were bombed by the Israeli military overnight into Sunday, leaving thick plumes of smoke enveloping the sprawling city of 10 million people during the day as oil residue fell as part of a heavy rain.
Windies coach Daren Sammy has been vocal on social media throughout the issue. On Thursday he posted “I just wanna go home”. “At least an update, tell us something,” he also said.
After England’s departure was confirmed, South Africa batter Quinton de Kock said “Funny, we have heard nothing! Strange how different teams have more pull than others.”
West Indies, South Africa and England were all scheduled to depart India via the Gulf – a situation made difficult by the Iran war and subsequent air strikes across the region.
England departed via Egypt on Saturday. West Indies and South Africa will finally travel together on a chartered plane on Monday.
“The safety and well-being of players, support staff, officials, and our own workforce remain our absolute priority as we respond to the evolving situation affecting air travel across parts of the Middle East,” the ICC said.
“The current disruption to multiple airspaces has created a highly complex and fast-moving logistical challenge.
“For instance, the England team and their staff were able to fly out from Mumbai without restriction due to the route’s airspace being unaffected and flights operating as usual.
“The ICC categorically refutes any claims of bias in this or other instances, and has been fully accommodating of specific demands and conditions put forth by teams.
“The ICC’s logistics and events teams have been working continuously with governments, aviation authorities, airlines and charter providers to secure safe travel options for all participating teams and tournament personnel.
“Furthermore, they and the ICC chief executive have maintained regular dialogue with the members’ representative ICC directors, board chairs and CEOs to assure all involved of their teams’ safety and the impact of the rapidly-changing situation.”
The United States-Israeli war on Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which is now in its eighth day, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping.
The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements.
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Global oil prices have surged by more than 25 percent since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.
The national average petrol price reached $3.41 per gallon ($0.9 a litre) on Saturday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), rising by $0.43 over the past week. Goldman Sachs warned oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel if shipping disruptions continue.
The US crude oil settled at just below $91 per barrel on Friday – its largest weekly gain on record in data dating back to 1983, indicating prices could continue to rise.
“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said earlier this week, according to the Reuters news agency.
The conflict has already led to the suspension of about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.
A nearly complete shutdown of the strait means the region’s top oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners.
More than 80 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the World Bank, meaning disruptions in the waterway could increase freight costs and delay deliveries of goods.
Storages in the Gulf filling
As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Gulf is rapidly filling, forcing oilfields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the UAE likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources told Reuters.
“At some point soon, everyone will also shut in if vessels do not come,” a source with a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.
Oilfields forced to shut in across the Middle East as a result of the shipping disruptions could take a while to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy.
“The conflict could be ended, but it could take days or weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, age of the field, the type of shut-in that they’ve had to do before you can get production back up to what it once was,” he said.
Iranian forces, meanwhile, are targeting regional energy infrastructure, including refineries and terminals, forcing them to shut down too, with some of those operations badly damaged by attacks and in need of repairs.
Qatar declared force majeure on its huge volumes of gas exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks, and it may take at least a month to return to normal production levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Saudi Aramco’s mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, meanwhile, has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage.
Economists warn that the situation could create a combination of higher prices and slower growth.
