Iran

As the prospect of a conflict between the United States and Iran looms, analysts within Israel have questioned the country’s capacity to determine the outcome of a confrontation in a region that, just months ago, it had regarded itself as on the brink of dominating.

“The [Israeli] opposition are accusing [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu of giving in to [US President Donald] Trump and ending the war on Gaza too soon,” said Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg. “[Israel is] being hounded out of Lebanon, [its] freedom to operate within Syria has been halted. All that’s left to [Israel] is the freedom to kill Palestinians, and with Qatar, Turkiye and Egypt now being involved in Gaza, over Israel’s objection, it won’t be allowed to do that for much longer.”

While senior Israeli figures including Netanyahu are liaising directly with the Trump administration over a possible attack on Iran, analysts say it is increasingly clear that Israel’s ability to shape regional developments is diminished.

After two years of genocide in Gaza, where Israel has killed more than 71,800 Palestinians, the US now appears to have taken the lead and has overruled Israel when it objected to the admission of Turkiye and Qatar to the board that will oversee the administration of Gaza.

In Syria, Israeli ambitions to hobble the new government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa also appear to have fallen foul of Trump’s White House, which is actively pushing the Netanyahu government to reach an accommodation with Damascus. In Lebanon, too, the US continues to play a defining role in determining Israeli actions, with any possible confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel said to be dependent upon Washington’s green light.

What influence Israel could wield over US action in Iran, according to many, is uncertain, even to the point that Washington could enter negotiations with no regard for Israeli concerns.

“There’s a worry that Donald Trump will not strike in Iran, which will continue to endanger Israel, and instead negotiate a conclusion that’s good for him as a peacemaker and leave the regime in place,” Netanyahu’s former aide from the early 90s and political pollster, Mitchell Barak, told Al Jazeera from West Jerusalem. “He’s transactional. That’s what he does. It’ll be like Gaza. Israel will secure their ultimate victory, then lose control to the US, whose interests – under Trump – don’t always align with ours.”

‘Big Bad Wolf’

While analysts’ expectations that Netanyahu could influence Trump’s actions in Iran may be limited, their sense that a fresh war would buy the Israeli prime minister relief from his current difficulties seems universal.

“Iran is Israel’s ‘Big Bad Wolf’,” Chatham House’s Yossi Mekelberg said of the geopolitical opponent that many in Israel believe exists only to ensure Israel’s destruction.

Mekelberg added that a war with Iran would serve as a useful distraction from Netanyahu’s domestic troubles, such as an inquiry into government failures related to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, his attempt to weaken the oversight powers of the judiciary, and his ongoing corruption trials.

“There’s a saying in Hebrew: ‘the righteous have their work done by others.’ I’m not for a moment saying that Netanyahu is righteous, but I’m sure he’s keen on having his work done by others,” Mekelberg said.

War fears

How much public appetite there may be for a confrontation with Iran is unclear.

Israel was able to heavily damage Iran during the conflict it started in June last year. But Iran was also able to repeatedly pierce Israel’s defences, making it clear that the Israeli public is not safe from the wars its state pursues in the region.

The threat – rather than the reality – of a confrontation with Iran also serves the prime minister’s ends, Goldberg noted. “Netanyahu has no need for a war. He doesn’t really need to do anything other than survive, which he’s proven adept at,” the analyst said, referring to the absence of any credible political rival, as well as the risk that an actual war may highlight Israel’s diplomatic weakness in its dealings with the US.

“There’s this joke phrase that became popular with those resisting Netanyahu’s judicial reform: ‘This time he’s done’,” Goldberg said. “Netanyahu’s never done. He committed a genocide, and all people in Israel can object to is the management of it. He’s currently losing military and diplomatic influence across the region, and few are noticing. I can’t imagine that this will be ‘it’ either.”

US President Donald Trump has said that talks with Iran are continuing to try to de-escalate tensions in the Gulf, even as the US military announced shooting down an Iranian drone that approached its aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

Video has emerged that is said to show a Russian-made Mi-28NE Havoc attack helicopter flying over the Iranian capital Tehran. Last week, pictures had also appeared online that looked to show at least one Mi-28NE in Iran. The arrival of Havocs in Iran might also point to the delivery of weapons and other materiel from Russia, or plans to do so soon, amid a new spike in geopolitical friction between the Middle Eastern country and the United States.

TWZ has not been able to independently confirm where and when the footage in question, seen in the social media post above, was taken. However, the pictures that began circulating online last week look to have taken at a hangar belonging to Iran’s Pars Aerospace Services Company (PASC). Situated at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, PASC is tied to Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and is subject to sanctions in the United States and other Western countries.

🇷🇺🇮🇷 It is believed that Iran has received the first batch of Mil Mi-28NE attack helicopters ordered in Russia.

Photos of a Mil Mi-28 helicopter in digital desert camo stationed in a hangar have emerged on social media.

The arrival of the first Havocs in Iran was also… pic.twitter.com/SgZxwy9ivP

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) January 28, 2026

Geo-Location of the warehouse where the recently delivered to Iran Mil-28 helicopter photo is taken.
Pars Aerospace Services Company in Tehran.
35.69899, 51.29459 pic.twitter.com/VV7ruGVPWj

— Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) January 28, 2026

In addition, on January 3, Iranian journalist Mohamad Taheri wrote “Inshallah you have a good military service,” according to a machine translation of a Persian-language post on X, which included a stock picture of an Mi-28 wearing a two-tone desert camouflage scheme. Taheri has been associated with Iran’s quasi-official Tasnim News Agency. Tasnim was among the first to report on a possible Iranian acquisition of Havocs, as well as Su-35 Flanker fighters and Yak-130 jet trainers, all the way back in 2023. The Yak-130s appeared in Iran that same year. There had been talk of a batch of Su-35s originally built for Egypt, but that were never delivered, being sent instead to the Iranians. However, at least some of those jets appeared instead in Algeria last year.

The two-seat Mi-28 traces back to before the fall of the Soviet Union, with the original variant making its first flight in the 1980s. The project was shelved in the 1990s and then subsequently revived. The first version to enter actual operational service was the Mi-28N in the late 2000s. Russia subsequently introduced an NE export version, different subvariants of which have been delivered to foreign customers in the past. A further upgraded NM variant for the Russian military was also developed in the 2010s, but has been slow to enter operational service. You can read more about the Mi-28 family in this past TWZ feature.

Mi-28s are armed with a 30mm automatic cannon in a turret under the nose and can carry various munitions, including anti-tank guided missiles and unguided rockets, on four pylons, two on each of a pair of stub wings on either side of the fuselage. The default sensor suite on the Mi-28N includes a mast radar and a turreted infrared video camera under the nose.

The exact configuration of any Mi-28s for Iran, and how many the country may have ordered in total, is unclear. The recently emerged video is too low quality to see any fine details, though it does appear to be fitted with a mast-mounted radar that has been lacking on certain other export versions of the Havoc. The still pictures show a partially disassembled helicopter, which also makes it very difficult to assess the overall configuration. The images do not offer a clear view of the nose, either, where various sensors, as well as the turreted main gun, are located.

Russian Helicopters, the main helicopter conglomerate in Russia today, also notably unveiled a further improved NE variation in 2018 that was said to incorporate lessons learned from the conflict in Syria. This included a directional infrared countermeasure system to provided add defense against incoming heat-seeking missiles, as well as other survivability improvements. It had new engine air filters, a particularly desirable feature for operations in desert environments, and a digital camouflage scheme, as well. The Mi-28 seen in the pictures that emerged last week looks to have the air filters, though they are covered by tarps, and has a digital paint job.

An image reportedly depicting an Mi-28NE attack helicopter recently delivered from Russia to Iran, featuring digital desert camouflage and lacking specialized screen-exhaust devices (SEDs), also known as infrared signature suppressors. https://t.co/e6AZK0g7OW pic.twitter.com/Etc5eo4RPo

— H. Memarian (@HEMemarian) January 28, 2026

New Mi-28s in any configuration would be a notable addition to the Iranian arsenal. The main attack helicopter in service in Iran today is the AH-1J International Cobra, which the country first acquired during the reign of the Shah. The Islamic Republic has made some upgrades to its AH-1 fleet since the 1970s, with the resulting helicopters variously referred to as Toufans or Panha 2091s. However, at their core, these are American-made helicopters that are increasingly difficult for the current regime in Tehran to sustain. The Havoc is more survivable overall and can carry a greater weapons load, as well.

IR Iran unveils Toufan 2 helicopter (upgraded Cobra)

If Iran’s Mi-28s feature the infrared sensor turret and the mast-mounted radar, the helicopters could offer an even greater boost in capability, even at night or in poor weather. That, in turn, could be valuable for responding to any kind of foreign ground incursion in the future, or to internal threats to the regime. At the same time, when an Iranian Havoc fleet might reach a level of real operational capability, and how well the country is able to sustain the helicopters going forward, remains to be seen. Moscow’s own demands in relation to the war in Ukraine have created additional challenges for foreign operators of Russian-made helicopters and other materiel.

As noted, the appearance of Mi-28s in Iran could also reflect larger deliveries of weapons and other materiel from Russia, or the potential for that to occur in the near future. In January, online flight tracking data showed at least five flights by Il-76 airlifters from Russia to Iran, which could have been carrying Havocs or other cargo. Those aircraft could also have been bringing cargo back to Russia from Iran, or carrying payloads both ways. Ties between Moscow and Tehran have grown, in general, in recent years, as Russia has found itself increasingly isolated globally over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. There has been much talk of Iran receiving exchanges in kind for its support to the Russian war effort.

Flight-tracking data from Flightradar24 shows at least five Russian Il-76 cargo aircraft flying to Tehran in the past 48 hours, pointing to a spike in undeclared Russian deliveries to Iran. pic.twitter.com/jLP8bz45iA

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) January 1, 2026

In addition, since the end of the 12 Day War with Israel, Iran has been looking to bolster various ends of its depleted arsenal. There have been reports that Iran has also been seeking new air defense systems from China, another country the regime in Tehran has been working to expand its ties with. China reportedly continues to be an important source of materials to support Iranian missile programs, as well.

The Mi-28 imagery has come amid the backdrop of a new surge in geopolitical friction with the United States. Just today, American authorities announced that an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter flying from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea shot down an Iranian drone that had “aggressively approached” the ship. U.S. officials also accused the IRGC of harassing a U.S.-flagged merchant vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

All of this follows a major build-up of U.S. military forces in the region for weeks now, together with a steady stream of reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering new strikes on Iran, at least in part in retaliation for that country’s violent crackdown on nationwide protests last month. Trump has also expressed interest in finding a negotiated arrangement of some kind with Tehran, with reports that American and Iranian officials could meet as early as Friday in Turkey.

Speaking earlier on Fox News, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirms the shoot down of an Iranian drone that was “acting aggressively” towards the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) today over the Arabian Sea, though states that President Trump remains committed to… pic.twitter.com/sVPzPjZIy8

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 3, 2026

When it comes to Mi-28s for Iran, evidence is growing that at least one of the helicopters has now been delivered, and more details may now continue to emerge.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Tehran, Iran – Several of Iran’s former leaders, including some who are currently imprisoned or under house arrest, have released damning statements over the killing of thousands during nationwide protests, garnering threats from hardliners.

The Iranian government claims that 3,117 people were killed during the antiestablishment protests. The government has rejected claims by the United Nations and international human rights organisations that state forces were behind the killings, which were mostly carried out on the nights of January 8 and 9.

The United States-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says it has verified 6,854 deaths and is investigating 11,280 other cases.

“After years of ever-escalating repression, this is a catastrophe that will be remembered for decades, if not for centuries,” wrote Mir Hossein Mousavi, a former reformist presidential candidate who has been under house arrest since the aftermath of the Green Movement of 2009.

“How many ways must people say that they do not want this system and do not believe your lies? Enough. The game is over.”

Mousavi told state forces to “put down your guns and step aside from power so that the nation itself can bring this land to freedom and prosperity”, and stressed that this must be done without foreign intervention amid the shadow of another war with the US and Israel.

He said that Iran is need of a constitutional referendum and a peaceful, democratic transition of power.

A group of 400 activists, including figures from inside and outside the country, backed Mousavi’s statement.

Mostafa Tajzadeh, a prominent jailed former reformist politician, said that he wants Iran to “move beyond the wretched conditions that the guardianship of Islamic jurists and the failed rule of the clergy have imposed on the Iranian nation”.

In a short statement from prison last week, he said this would be contingent upon the “resistance, wisdom, and responsible action of all citizens and political actors” and called for an independent fact-finding mission to uncover the true aspects of “atrocities” committed against protesters last month.

‘Major reforms’

Other former heavyweights have heavily criticised Iran’s current course, but have avoided calling for the effective removal of the Islamic Republic from power.

Former President Hassan Rouhani, who many believe is eyeing a potential future return to power, last week gathered his ex-ministers and insiders for a recorded speech, and called for “major reforms, not small reforms”.

He acknowledged that Iranians have been protesting for a variety of reasons over the past four decades, and insisted the state must listen to them if it wants to survive, but did not mention the internet blackout and killing of protesters during his tenure in November 2019.

Rouhani added that the establishment must hold public votes on major topics, including foreign policy and the ailing economy, in order to avoid further nationwide protests and prevent the population from looking to foreign powers for help.

Mohammad Khatami, the reformist cleric who was president from 1997 to 2005, adopted a softer tone and said violence derailed protests that could have helped “expand dialogue to improve the country’s affairs”.

He wrote in a statement that Iran must “return to a forgotten republicanism, and an Islamism that embraces republicanism in all its dimensions and requirements, placing development together with justice at the core of both foreign and domestic policy”.

Mehdi Karroubi, another senior reformist cleric who had his house arrest lifted less than a year ago after 15 years, called the protest killings “a crime whose dimensions language and pen are incapable of conveying” and said the establishment is responsible.

“The wretched state of Iran today is the direct result of Mr. Khamenei’s destructive domestic and international interventions and policies,” he wrote, in reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in absolute power for nearly 37 years.

Karroubi noted one prominent example as the 86-year-old leader’s “insistence on the costly and futile nuclear project and the heavy consequences of sanctions over the past two decades for the country and its people”.

Political prisoners rearrested

Three prominent Iranian former political prisoners were arrested and taken to prison by security forces once again last week.

The Fars news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said the reason for the arrests of Mehdi Mahmoudian, Abdollah Momeni, and Vida Rabbani was that they had sneaked out Mir Hossein Mousavi’s statement from his house arrest.

Mahmoudian is a journalist and activist, and co-writer of the Oscar-nominated political drama movie, It Was Just an Accident, which won the Palme d’Or at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival. Momeni and Rabani are also political activists who have previously been arrested by the Iranian establishment multiple times.

The three were among 17 human rights defenders, filmmakers and civil society activists, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi and internationally recognised lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, who co-signed a statement last week that put the blame for the protest killings on the supreme leader and the theocratic establishment.

“The mass killing of justice seekers who courageously protested this illegitimate system was an organised state crime against humanity,” they wrote, condemning the firing on civilians, the attacks on the wounded, and the denial of medical care as “acts against Iran’s security and betrayal of the homeland”.

The activists called for holding a referendum and constituent assembly to allow Iranians to democratically decide their political future.

Hardliners incensed

In hardline-dominated circles and among their affiliated media, the mood has been entirely different.

On Sunday, lawmakers in parliament donned the uniforms of the IRGC, which was last week designated a “terrorist” organisation by the European Union.

They chanted “Death to America” and promised they would seek out European military attaches working at embassies in Tehran to expel them as “terrorists”.

Nasrollah Pejmanfar, a cleric who represents northeast Mashhad in the parliament, told a public session of parliament on Sunday that former President Rouhani must be hanged for favouring engagement with the West, echoing a demand also made by other hardline peers in recent years.

“Today is the time for the ‘major reform’, which is arresting and executing you,” he said, addressing Rouhani.

Amirhossein Sabeti, another firebrand lawmaker, condemned the government of President Masoud Pezeshkian – but not Khamenei or the establishment – for proceeding with mediated talks with the US.

“Today, the people of Iran are waiting for a pre-emptive attack on Israel and US bases in the region, not talks from a position of weakness,” he claimed.

A massive fire has broken out at a bazaar in western Tehran, authorities say, sending thick plumes of black smoke over the Iranian capital.

The cause of the blaze on Tuesday morning was not immediately unclear.

The fire has “so far resulted in no injuries”, Tehran emergency services operations commander Mohammad Behnia said.

The blaze started at a market in the Jannat Abad neighbourhood in the west of the capital, an area packed with stalls and shops, state television quoted the city’s fire department as saying.

“The fire is extensive, to the extent that it is visible from various parts of Tehran,” Fire Department spokesman Jalal Maleki said.

Maleki later said the blaze had been “brought under control” and that “smoke removal and spot-check operations” were under way, according to Iran’s official IRNA news agency.

State television said firefighters were dispatched to the site immediately to contain the blaze.

Last month during the violent clashes between Kurdish forces and the Syrian army, the United States delivered a devastating message to Syria’s Kurds: Their partnership with Washington had “expired“. This was not merely a statement of shifting priorities – it was a clear signal that the US was siding with Damascus and abandoning the Kurds at their most vulnerable moment.

For the Kurds across the region watching events unfold, the implications were profound. The US is no longer perceived as a reliable partner or supporter of minorities.

This development is likely to have an impact not just on the Kurdish community in Syria but also those in Iraq, Turkiye and Iran.

Fears of repeat marginalisation in Syria

US support for Damascus under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa paves the way for a centralised Syrian state – an arrangement that Kurds throughout the region view with deep suspicion. Their wariness is rooted in bitter historical experience.

Centralised states in the Middle East have historically marginalised, excluded and assimilated Kurdish minorities. The prospect of such a system emerging in Syria, with US backing, represents a fundamental divergence from Kurdish hopes for the region’s future.

The approach the Assad regime to the Kurdish question was built on systematic denial. Kurds were not recognised as a distinct collective group within Syria’s national fabric; the state banned the public use of the Kurdish language and Kurdish names. Many Kurds were denied citizenship.

Al-Sharaa’s presidential decree of January 16 promised Kurds some rights while the January 30 agreement between Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) included limited recognition of Kurdish collective identity, including acknowledgment of “Kurdish regions” – terminology conspicuously absent from Syria’s political vocabulary and government documents in the past.

These represent incremental gains, but they are unfolding within a transitional government structure that aims for centralisation as its ultimate objective. That is why Syrian Kurds remain suspicious of whether the promises made today will be upheld in the future.

While a consensus has emerged among the majority of Kurdish groups that armed resistance is not strategically viable at this stage, any future engagement with the US will be perceived with mistrust.

Possibility of renewed Shia-Kurdish alliance in Iraq

After years of power rivalries between Shia and Kurdish parties in Iraq, both groups are now observing developments in Syria and potential changes in Iran with a shared sense of threat and common interests. If in 2003, their alliance was driven by a shared past – the suffering under Saddam Hussein’s regime – today it is being guided by a shared future shaped by fears of being marginalised in the region.

At both the political and popular levels, Shia and Kurdish parties and communities have had much more in common over the past few weeks than in the past. This convergence is evident not only in elite political calculations but also in public sentiment across both communities.

For the first time in recent memory, both Kurdish elites and ordinary citizens in Iraq are no longer enthusiastic about regime change in Iran, a position that would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago.

In addition, last month, Iraq’s Shia Coordination Framework, an alliance of its Shia political parties, nominated Nouri al-Maliki for prime minister, the most powerful position in the Iraqi government. Remarkably, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the dominant Kurdish political force, welcomed the nomination.

The KDP’s support for al-Maliki was not solely a reaction to anger over US policy in Syria. It was also rooted in Iraqi and Kurdish internal politics. The endorsement is part of an ongoing rivalry between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) over Iraq’s presidency, an office reserved for the Kurds. The KDP needs allies in Baghdad to ensure its candidate, rather than the PUK’s, secures the position.

However, Washington might see an alignment between the KDP-led Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq and an al-Maliki-led government or a similar government in Baghdad as not conducive to its interests in Iraq, especially its efforts to curb Iranian influence.

Before casting blame, Washington should ask itself why the Kurds feels compelled to adopt this position. The Kurdish stance cannot be fully understood without factoring US policy in Syria into the discussion. From a Kurdish perspective, the US has not been a neutral arbiter in Syria.

The peace process in Turkiye

Over the past year, many believed that the sustainability of Turkiye’s peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) hinged on a resolution of the Kurdish question in Syria and the fate of the SDF.

The violent clashes between Damascus, backed by Ankara and Washington, and the SDF threatened to close the door on negotiations. Remarkably, however, not all avenues have been shut.

It now appears the two issues are being treated as separate files. Negotiations with the PKK are likely to continue within Turkiye’s borders, and crucially, PKK leaders have not translated their disappointment over the weakening of the SDF into a definitive rejection of talks with Ankara.

What sustains this dynamic is that the SDF has not been entirely dismantled, leaving some breathing room for continued dialogue between Ankara and the PKK.

The Iranian Kurds

The Iranian Kurds, although farther away from Syria, have also observed events there and made their conclusions. The abandonment of the SDF reveals the unpredictable nature of US support for the region’s minorities.

In light of this and given continuing US incitement against the Iranian regime, it is quite significant that the Iranian Kurds collectively and deliberately decided not to be at the forefront of the recent protests or allow themselves to be instrumentalised by Western media.

The Kurdish community in Iran is not enthusiastic about a potential return of Reza Pahlavi, who clearly enjoys support from Washington, and the restoration of the shah’s legacy, which was also oppressive. Iranian opposition groups – many of them based in the West – have not offered a better prospect for the Kurdish question. There is widespread fear that the current regime could simply be replaced by another with no guarantee for Kurdish rights.

Some Iraq-based Iranian Kurdish armed groups did carry out attacks on Iranian positions near the Iran-Iraq border. But the main Iranian Kurdish armed actors chose not to engage directly or escalate militarily. Their calculations are based on the uncertainty about the endgame envisioned by Israel and the US and the reality that any escalation would provoke Iranian retaliation against Iraqi Kurds.

With each abandonment of its Kurdish allies, the US further erodes the foundation of trust upon which its local partnerships rest. Iraqi and Syrian Kurds have learned to live with American unreliability, but this arrangement may not endure indefinitely. When it fractures, the consequences for US influence in the region could be profound.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s economic outlook appears increasingly grim more than three weeks after the start of what became one of the most comprehensive and prolonged state-imposed internet blackouts in history, impacting a population of more than 90 million people.

Iranian authorities abruptly cut off all communications across the country on the night of January 8, at the height of nationwide protests that the United Nations and international human rights organisations say were suppressed with the use of deadly force.

Most of Iran’s internet bandwidth, local and international phone calls and SMS text messages have been restored over recent days. But most of the country is still unable to freely connect to the global internet amid heavy filtering by the state.

The increased bandwidth allows more people to circumvent state restrictions using a variety of proxies and virtual private networks (VPNs), but solutions are often costly and temporary.

Last week, Information and Communications Technology Minister Sattar Hashemi told reporters his ministry estimates that the Iranian economy suffered at least 50 trillion rials (about $33m at the current exchange rate) in damages on a daily basis during the blackout.

But the minister admitted that the true toll is likely much higher, and said that other ministers and economic officials have privately offered heftier estimates that he did not expand upon.

‘Can’t do anything without the internet’

The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian has said the decision to fully block connectivity was taken outside of its control by the Supreme National Security Council.

Pezeshkian, who had made scaling back internet filtering a main campaign promise, has refrained from talking about Iran’s largest internet blackout to date, instead focusing on economic reforms and cash subsidies.

The administration has promised to offer online businesses financial support, but the losses have already been sudden, acute, and too heavy to bear for many.

Simin Siami, a travel agent working in Tehran, told Al Jazeera that her company lost most of its income and had to lay off a number of employees.

“Most international flights were cancelled, and there was no way to purchase tickets or compare existing flights,” she said, adding that her company was also unable to book hotels for customers, who were initially even unable to renew their passports.

“Unfortunately, that limited our services to selling tickets for local flights and booking local hotels, and cancelled all our previous international tickets and bookings.”

Saeed Mirzaei, who works at an immigration agency in the capital, said 46 employees at his company had to go on mandatory leave for weeks amid the shutdown.

He told Al Jazeera that they suddenly lost all contact with foreign counterparts, were unable to get updated information from embassies, and missed deadlines to apply for universities on behalf of their customers wishing to leave a heavily sanctioned Iran for better opportunities.

“We can’t do anything without the internet because our work deals directly with it,” Mirzaei said.

National internet a ‘bitter joke’

During the blackout, Iran’s theocratic establishment even struggled to sustain basic services using the so-called National Information Network, a limited nationalised intranet.

The connection to the intranet was slow and patchy, many companies remained disconnected from it, and those that were allowed to connect retained only a fraction of their customer base amid general economic stagnation across the country.

Hashemi, the communications minister, said a demand by hardliners within the establishment to move away from using the international web in favour of a domestic connection was a “bitter joke” that is not feasible to enforce.

He said his ministry estimates that the country’s online businesses could survive under a blackout for roughly 20 days, signalling that the state had no choice this week but to gradually restore internet bandwidth.

Figures for economic damages incurred by the blackout published by officials reflect only the visible costs and do not account for hidden losses, according to Abazar Barari, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce.

“In the import and export sector, processes are heavily dependent on the internet from the very initial stages – such as price negotiations, issuance of pro forma and other invoices – to coordination with transportation companies and the verification of documents. As a result, the internet shutdown effectively disrupted foreign trade,” he told Al Jazeera.

“During this period, customer attrition also occurred, with the damage being particularly severe in certain food commodities, as many countries are unwilling to tie their food security to unstable supply conditions.”

‘They have no right to do this’

In a tumultuous country with one of the highest inflation rates in the world, numerous Iranians who tried to make money online to stay afloat are now deeply anxious as well.

From owners of small online businesses to teachers, chefs, crypto traders, gamers and streamers, people are taking to social media to ask others for extra support after the gradual reconnect this week.

Mehrnaz, a young video editor in Tehran, said she only went back to work this week after her company put her on forced leave without pay from the start of the protests in the city’s business district in late December.

“I was on the verge of having to move back to my parents’ house in another city. I’m only 25, and I hit near-zero for the second time this year. There might not be another time,” she said, pointing out that the first time was during the 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June.

Iran’s National Post Company announced on Sunday that postal deliveries experienced a 60-percent fall at the height of the blackout, mainly damaging small and home-based businesses that depended on mailing their products.

But beyond livelihoods, many in Iran are also angered by the fact that the state can cut off communications on command, violating the people’s right to benefit from the internet.

“They had the nerve to create a tiered internet and decide which type of use is ‘essential’,” said a woman who asked not to be identified for safety reasons.

“My child wants to search about his favourite animation movies, my mom wants to read news on Telegram, and my dad wants to download books. I want to go online and write that they have no right to do this.”

Iran examines regional proposals to ease tensions with the US as it expects a framework for talks in the coming days.

Iran has said that it expects progress on a framework to restart nuclear talks with the United States as unverified reports suggest the country’s president has ordered the revival of the negotiations.

Tehran said on Monday that it is examining several diplomatic processes pitched by countries in the region to ease tensions with Washington, adding that it expects a framework for talks in the coming days.

The announcement came as Tehran and Washington appear to be pulling back from the threat of military action.

US President Donald Trump sent warships to the Middle East after Iran violently put down mass protests in January, but he then called for Tehran to make a deal to resume talks on its nuclear programme, which were abandoned in June when Iran was attacked by the US and Israel.

On Sunday, Trump said the US is talking with Iran. Tehran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has now confirmed indirect negotiations are ongoing.

“Countries of the region are acting as mediators in the exchange of messages,” he said on Monday without giving details on the content of the negotiations.

“Several points have been addressed, and we are examining and finalising the details of each stage in the diplomatic process, which we hope to conclude in the coming days.”

The state news agency IRNA reported that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had telephone calls with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye to discuss the latest developments.

Later, the Fars news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying Pezeshkian had ordered the resumption of nuclear talks.

“Iran and the United States will hold talks on the nuclear file,” Fars reported without specifying a date. The report was also carried by the government newspaper Iran and the reformist daily Shargh.

Araghchi is due to meet US envoy Steve Witkoff for negotiations against this backdrop, Iranian news agency Tasnim also reported on Monday. Neither Tehran nor Washington has verified a meeting has been arranged.

The reports out of Tehran came as the region has been braced for a potential US attack as an aircraft carrier and fighter jets are sitting in the Indian Ocean close enough to assist a strike.

Trump threatened Iran in the wake of mass protests there in which thousands of people were killed in January. The demonstrations, which were triggered by economic distress and the collapse of the country’s currency, morphed into a direct challenge to the government.

However, Trump’s approach has since transformed into a demand for a nuclear deal as the US and European Union are concerned that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran insists its programme is strictly civilian.

While Iran suggested on Monday that it is moving closer to agreeing to reopen talks, it is understood that the US has set some conditions.

Iranian sources told the Reuters news agency that for talks to resume, Trump has demanded that Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium, curtail its missile programme and halt support to its network of allied armed groups in the region.

In the past, Iran has shown flexibility in discussing the nuclear file, but missiles and regional allies have long been treated as nonnegotiable.

It is not clear whether Iran would change its position now that the country urgently needs sanctions relief to improve the economy and stave off future unrest.

In June, American and Iranian officials had kicked off negotiations in Oman, but the process stalled after Israel attacked Iran and then the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.

On Sunday, Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with the US but insisted, “We have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has also maintained a defiant tone, warning on Sunday that any attack would result in a “regional war”.

As officials in the region geared up their diplomacy to avoid another confrontation, the EU last week designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a “terrorist organisation”.

On Monday, Iran said it had summoned all EU envoys in recent days over the move, adding that it was considering “countermeasures”.

Iran has announced that it now considers all European Union militaries to be ‘terrorist groups’. This follows the EU’s terror designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over a deadly crackdown on protesters.

Move comes after a European Union decision to label the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a ‘terrorist organisation’.

Iran has declared European armies “terrorist groups” after a European Union decision to apply the same designation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over a bloody crackdown on recent protests.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday the decision was made under “Article 7 of the Law on Countermeasures Against the Declaration of the IRGC as a Terrorist Organisation”.

“Europeans have in fact shot themselves in the foot and, once again, through blind obedience to the Americans, decided against the interests of their own people,” Ghalibaf said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced the bloc’s designation of the IRGC on Thursday, saying repression could not “go unanswered”.

“Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise,” she wrote on social media.

The United States-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says it has confirmed 6,713 deaths during the nationwide protests that began on December 28 over economic grievances but soon evolved into a serious challenge to the government.

Iranian authorities have not announced any official arrest numbers, but said at least 3,117 people were killed during the protests, including 2,427 described as “innocent” protesters or security forces.

Internet and mobile access were cut off by the state across Iran on the night of January 8, during the height of the protests.

The IRGC is a branch of Iran’s military, established after the 1979 Iranian revolution. Operating alongside the regular armed forces, it answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and plays a central role in Iran’s defence, foreign operations, and regional influence.

Iran’s retaliatory move came amid weeks of rising tensions, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatening military strikes and building up its naval presence ⁠in the Middle East. Trump, however, said on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking” with the US, hours after Iran’s top national security official said arrangements for negotiations were progressing.

Iranian officials have warned that any attack would draw a “comprehensive” response. Tehran has also planned a live-fire military drill for Sunday and Monday in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes.

Meanwhile, the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday said if ‍the US ‍attacked Iran, it would become a regional conflict.

“[Trump] regularly says that he brought ships […] The Iranian nation shall not be scared by these things, ‍the Iranian people will ⁠not be stirred by these threats,” Khamenei said.

“We are not the initiators and do not want to attack any country, but the Iranian nation will strike a strong blow against anyone who attacks and harasses them.”

US President Donald Trump says Iran is ‘seriously talking’ with the US and hopes that talks with Tehran will lead to a nuclear deal. Trump also reiterated that he’s sending ‘powerful ships’ to the Gulf.

Jan. 31 (UPI) — The Iranian military intends to conduct two days of live-fire naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, starting on Sunday, despite warnings against it from the U.S. military.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is conducting the drills amid civic unrest and U.S. President Donald Trump deploying a “massive armada” to the area, led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

“U.S. forces acknowledge Iran’s right to operate professionally in international airspace and waters. Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization,” CENTCOM officials said in a statement on Saturday.

“CENTCOM will ensure the safety of U.S. personnel, ships, and aircraft operating in the Middle East. We will not tolerate unsafe IRGC actions, including overflight of U.S. military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of U.S. military assets when intentions are unclear, high-speed boat approaches on a collision course with U.S. military vessels, or weapons trained at U.S. forces,” CENTCOM said.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, with Iran situated along its northern shore and Oman and the United Arab Emirates along its southern shoreline.

More than 100 merchant vessels per day sail through the strait, which makes it an “essential trade corridor” that supports the region’s economy, CENTCOM said, as reported by Fox News.

The deployment comes as the Trump administration considers potential military intervention in the Iranian unrest.

Various estimates place the number of protestors and other civilians killed at between 6,000 and more than 30,000 since protests began on Dec. 28.

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman attended a private briefing in Washington, D.C., on Friday and warned that Iran would grow stronger if the United States does not act in Iran is warranted if military action is warranted, Axios reported.

Trump has threatened to target Iran’s leadership with military strikes if widespread killings of protesters continued, but he delayed any strikes after Saudi leaders cautioned against it.

Salman’s comments on Friday indicate a change among Saudi Arabia’s leadership regarding potential military action in Iran.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday accused the U.S. military of trying to dictate how the Iranian military conducts “target practice on their own turf.”

“Freedom of navigation and safe passage of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are of vital importance for Iran, as much as it is for our neighbors,” Araghchi added.

“The presence of outside forces in our region has always caused the exact opposite of what is declared: promoting escalation instead of de-escalation,” he said.

The pending military exercise also is scheduled after Iranian state media reported an explosion damaged a nine-story residential building and killed a young girl and injured 14 in Bandar Abbas, which is an Iranian port city located on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Fars News Agency denied reports that IRGC Navy leader Brigadier Gen. Alireza Tangsiri died in the blast, which local officials said likely was caused by a gas leak.

“The initial cause of the building accident in Bandar Abbas was a gas leak and buildup, leading to an explosion,” Bandar Abbas Fire Chief Mohammad Amin Lyaghat told Iranian state media. He called the explanation an “initial theory.”

Ali Larijani says efforts to get a framework for negotiations are advancing, as a US naval deployment in the Gulf fuels concerns.

Iran’s top security official has said progress is being made towards negotiations with the United States, even as the Iranian foreign minister again accused Washington of raising tensions between the two countries.

Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a social media post on Saturday that, “unlike the artificial media war atmosphere, the formation of a structure for negotiations is progressing”.

Larijani’s post did not provide further details about the purported framework for talks.

Tensions have been rising between Iran and the US for weeks amid US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to attack the country over a crackdown on recent antigovernment protests, and his push to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme.

The Trump administration has also deployed a naval “armada” to Iran, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, escalating fears of a possible military confrontation.

Senior Iranian leaders have said they are open to negotiations with Washington, but only once Trump stops threatening to attack the country.

Earlier this week, Trump said the US vessels being sent to Iran were ready to use “violence, if necessary” if Iran refused to sit down for talks on its nuclear programme.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) also warned Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Friday over its plans to hold a two-day naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, a Gulf maritime passage that is critical to global trade.

“Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near US forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization,” CENTCOM said in a statement.

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi hit back on Saturday, saying in a social media post that the US military, operating off Iran’s shores, “is now attempting to dictate how our Powerful Armed Forces should conduct target practice on their own turf”.

“CENTCOM is also requesting ‘professionalism’ from a national military the U.S. Government has listed as a ‘terrorist organization’, all while recognizing the right of that same ‘terrorist organization’ to conduct military drills!” Araghchi wrote.

The US designated the IRGC, an elite branch of the Iranian military, as a “terrorist” organisation in 2019, during Trump’s first term in office.

Araghchi added, “The presence of outside forces in our region has always caused the exact opposite of what is declared: promoting escalation instead of de-escalation”.

Reporting from the Iranian capital, Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said the situation remains “quite fragile and delicate” amid the US military buildup in the region.

Still, he said that Saturday’s statement by Larijani, the Iranian security official, about progress being made on efforts to hold negotiations was a “positive” sign.

“Diplomatic [efforts] are [on]going,” Asadi said, noting that senior Iranian officials have held talks with allies in recent days amid a push to prevent a confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani met with Larajani in Tehran on Saturday to discuss “efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region”.

Sheikh Mohammed reiterated Qatar’s “support for all efforts aimed at reducing tensions and achieving peaceful solutions that enhance security and stability in the region”, the ministry said of the talks in a statement.

“He also stressed the need for concerted efforts to spare the peoples of the region the consequences of escalation and to continue coordination with brotherly and friendly countries to address differences through diplomatic means,” the statement added.

Ever since the crackdown on protests in Iran between January 8 and 10, there has been contention on what the true death toll of those bloody events is. According to figures provided by the Iranian government, 3,117 people were killed, including civilians and security forces. Yet estimates from outside the country have put the number at anywhere between 5,000 and a staggering 36,500.

This wide range not only reflects the fact that it has been extremely difficult to verify these reports, but also that there has been a concerted effort to use the death count to manufacture global consent for an attack on Iran and, in a deceitful rhetoric, downplay the official death toll of the genocide in Gaza.

Since the outbreak of the protests, there has been a race to estimate and report on the casualties – something I call a “Death Toll Olympics”.

Iran-focused human rights organisations led by dissident activists have been going through all sorts of evidence and testimonies to verify the number of the dead. As of writing this piece, the US-based organisation HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) has cited more than 6,000 deaths and a further 17,000-plus cases under examination.

However, there are valid doubts about the speed of the activist-led verification process.

For every reported death, multiple accounts have to be examined, possible duplications must be identified and eliminated; and dates, locations and specific circumstances must be cross-checked against the timeline of events.

Furthermore, any visual evidence has to be localised and authenticated based on open-source data or corroborated by the accounts of multiple witnesses. From an investigative standpoint, the reliability and quality of activist-led counts that increase rapidly on a daily basis, therefore warrants caution.

The UN Special Rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, has cited a conservative estimate of around 5,000 deaths. At the same time, she has mentioned that unverified numbers of up to 20,000 have been reported to her by medical sources.

The described obstacles, and difficulties of verification over the past weeks, have been further exacerbated by Iran’s severely restricted internet access. Despite this, major media outlets have begun distributing much higher figures, solely based on vague anonymous sources who claim privileged access within Iran’s government or health sector.

On January 25, for example, UK-based TV network Iran International published a report claiming 36,500 were killed, citing “extensive reports” allegedly obtained from the Iranian security apparatus – reports it has neither published nor otherwise made transparent.

The same day, United States news magazine Time published an article titled “Iran Protest Death Toll Could Top 30,000, According to Local Health Officials”. It claimed that “as many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone” based on the accounts of two senior officials of the country’s Ministry of Health, whose identities were not revealed for security reasons. Notably, the magazine admitted in the text that it did not possess any means to independently confirm that number.

Two days later, British newspaper The Guardian followed the same trend with an article titled “Disappeared bodies, mass burials and ‘30,000 dead’: what is the truth of Iran’s death toll?” The piece introduced the figure of 30,000 based on estimates of an anonymous doctor, who spoke to the newspaper. He and his colleagues in Iran, the outlet admitted, were actually hesitant to provide a concrete figure.

Other media – from the Sunday Times to the Pierce Morgan Uncensored show – have cited papers circulated by Germany-based ophthalmologist Amir Parasta claiming death toll numbers between 16,500 and 33,000. However, the latest available version of the paper, dating back to January 23 uses disputable extrapolation methods to reach its figures. Strikingly, Parasta does not make any secret of his affiliation with Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s ousted Shah

The exiled crown prince and his team, whose extensive social media manipulation and disinformation efforts have been exposed by recent investigations by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz and University of Toronto’s The Citizen Lab, have been key actors in inciting and escalating the recent protests towards confrontation. Accordingly, the fatality numbers disseminated by Mr Parasta cannot be perceived as neutral and constitute partisan estimates at best.

Despite acknowledging their own inability to verify these estimates, the media in question nevertheless put these extreme figures in titles and subheadings. It didn’t take long for other outlets to report on these inflated numbers, referring to these major publications as primary sources. Activists and Western politicians have also used them to push their respective agendas, thereby further fuelling a spiral of disinformation campaigns on social media. – In other words, a “death toll olympics” was born.

All of this has served two ends.

First, it has supported efforts to manufacture consent for foreign military intervention and malicious political action. While the protests were still ongoing, US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatened military action against Iran in the event of a deadly crackdown. As of writing these lines, there has been a significant US military build-up around Iran, effectively thickening the war cloud.

Second, the speculation about the Iranian death toll has helped pro-Israel politicians and commentators in the West to downplay the casualties of the Israeli war on Gaza. In this way, it has become a utilitarian tool for relativising the genocide of the Palestinian people.

Confronted with mounting pressure regarding the death toll, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the authorities to “publicly publish the names and personal data of those deceased during the recent bitter incidents”. His director of communication has even promised that a procedure has been set up to examine and verify any conflicting claims.

It remains to be seen how effective and transparent the promised procedure will turn out. It is undeniable that thousands have been killed in Iran, mostly by Iranian security forces, amid a multi-day brutal crowd and riot control effort.

Structural obscurity and the restricted access to Iran for independent experts will likely mean that the exact death toll will never be determined. However, the more transparency can be established regarding the scale of the killings, the more likely it is that the perpetrators can be held accountable.

An arduous verification process of the recent deaths is crucial not only for the sake of accountability, but also to expose the media manipulation that is once again preparing the ground for a unilateral US-led act of aggression in the Middle East. In light of this, the “Death Toll Olympics” remains an ignominious disservice to the wretched of the Earth from Palestine to Iran.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

Local fire official says gas leak likely caused blast that ripped through residential building in Iranian port city.

An explosion that rocked a residential building in the Iranian port city Bandar Abbas was likely caused by a gas leak, the local head of the fire department told Iranian media.

The Bandar Abbas fire chief said residents were evacuated from the building in the city’s Moallem Boulevard area, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Saturday.

“The initial cause of the building accident in Bandar Abbas was a gas leak and buildup, leading to an explosion. This is the initial theory,” fire chief Mohammad Amin Lyaghat said in comments broadcast on state television later.

The exact number of casualties was also not immediately clear.

Mehrdad Hassanzadeh, the head of crisis management in Hormozgan province, where Bandar Abbas is located, was quoted by the IRNA news agency as saying wounded people were being transferred to hospital, without reporting any deaths.

The Reuters news agency reported that a local official told Iranian news agencies that at least one person was killed and 14 others wounded. Al Jazeera could not independently verify that information.

State television said the explosion occurred at an eight-storey building, “destroying two floors, several vehicles, and shops” in the area.

Images carried by Press TV showed the building’s facade blown out, exposing parts of its interior, with debris scattered around.

The explosion took place amid soaring tensions between Iran and the United States and fears of a military confrontation between the two countries.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack Iran over a recent crackdown on antigovernment protests and Washington’s push to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme.

After rumours circulated online about the Bandar Abbas explosion, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) denied that any of the buildings belonging to its naval forces in the province had been targeted, according to a statement carried by the Fars news agency.

Bandar Abbas, home to Iran’s most important container port, lies on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway between Iran and Oman that handles about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.

The port suffered a major explosion in April of last year that killed dozens of people and injured more than 1,000 others.

Separately on Saturday, four people were killed in a gas explosion in the city of Ahvaz near the Iraqi border, according to the state-run Tehran Times.

Crews had begun clearing the debris from that blast to rescue those trapped under the rubble, Press TV reported.

The U.S. Navy’s top officer says global proliferation of increasingly capable air defense systems underscores the vital need to move ahead with work on the F/A-XX next-generation carrier-based fighter. He further warned that the Navy’s “ability to fly with impunity” using non-stealthy types like the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, even against smaller nation-state adversaries like Iran and non-state actors, is now “fleeting.”

Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Daryl Caudle talked about F/A-XX and the threat ecosystem during a live question-and-answer session at the Apex Defense conference in Washington, D.C., yesterday. Breaking Defense was first to report on Caudle’s remarks. F/A-XX has been in purgatory since the Pentagon announced its intention to shelve it last year, primarily to prevent any competition for resources with the U.S. Air Force’s F-47 sixth-generation fighter. Congress is now pushing ahead with legislation that could jumpstart the Navy’s next-generation fighter program. Boeing and Northrop Grumman are currently in the running for F/A-XX. Lockheed Martin was reportedly eliminated from the competition last March. Boeing is also the prime contractor for the F-47.

The “next-generation airframe, F/A-XX, is so vital,” Caudle said yesterday. “This [carrier] air wing of the future design is so important for so many reasons … nothing delivers the mass of an air wing if you want to deliver mass fires.”

“I know these things are expensive, and I know the defense industrial base is compressed, but we have got to figure out how to walk and chew gum here with aircraft,” he added. It is worth noting here that both Boeing and Northrop Grumman have pushed back publicly, to different degrees, on concerns that the U.S. industrial base cannot support work on two sixth-generation fighter programs simultaneously.

You can listen to Adm. Caudle’s full opening remarks at the Apex Defense conference and the follow-on question-and-answer session in the video below.

CNO APEX REMARKS

Caudle has long been outspoken in his support for F/A-XX, which is the Navy’s planned successor to its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets. In addition to being very stealthy, the sixth-generation jets would come with increased range and other advancements, giving the Navy’s carrier air wings a major boost in kinetic capability. F/A-XX will also be able to perform electronic warfare and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, as well as contribute to battle space management.

The CNO highlighted many of these expected capabilities in his comments yesterday. He also called particular attention to how “vital” F/A-XX will be because of “the CCAs [Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones] that it will command and control.”

“But the bigger part is … just the ever-lowering cost of entry” when it comes to air defense threats, Caudle said. “The folks that used to be not in [the] headspace that I needed a stealth aircraft of this level to fly a mission into their country, will gain capability that the F-18 will not match against.”

“This is an ever-evolving theme, and when you’ve got partnerships … well coupled with each other across China and Russia and Iran and North Korea, and terrorist groups that are getting that kit from all of those through back-channel ways, our ability to fly with impunity with our existing airframes is fleeting,” he continued. “So, if I don’t start building that [F/A-XX] immediately, you’re not going to get it for some time.”

“I hate to say it, sounds cliche, but you know, when things heat up in Iran, guess who steamed over there? Right? It was the United States Navy and the Abraham [Lincoln Carrier] Strike Group,” the Navy’s top officer added. “So you can imagine what that looks like 10 years from now, with a different Iran, with different capability, that can go against F-18 capabilities of today.”

U.S. military operations in and around the Middle East in the past two years have provided substantial evidence to underscore Caudle’s remarks. There were multiple reported instances in which Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen were able to threaten existing fourth and fifth-generation U.S. fighters, at least to a degree, with their relatively modest air defense capabilities. Sources differ on the total number, but the Houthis were also able to successfully down 20 or so MQ-9 Reaper drones.

TWZ has previously explored in detail the scale and scope of Houthi air defenses, as well as their ability to punch above their weight, and not just against U.S. forces. Infrared sensors and seekers, including the repurposing of heat-seeking air-to-air missiles as surface-to-air weapons, have been a major factor, given that they are not impacted by radar cross-section-reducing features on stealthy targets. They are also passive, meaning that they do not pump out signals that can give opponents advanced warning that they are being tracked and targeted.

Infrared capabilities can also help in cueing traditional radars, and pairing the two together offers benefits for spotting and tracking targets, whether they have features to reduce their radar and other signatures or not. This also just allows the radars to not have to start radiating (and expose themselves as a result) until very late in the engagement cycle. The Houthis have also focused heavily on mobile systems that are hard to find and fix in advance, and that present additional complications given their ability to pop up suddenly in unexpected locations.

The air defense assets the Houthis have arrayed over the past decade or so are directly reflective of developments in Iran, which has put a similar focus on infrared capabilities and mobile systems. Though B-2 stealth bombers were the centerpiece of the Operation Midnight Hammer strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last year, stealthy F-22 and F-35 fighters were still used to help clear the way by targeting air defense sites in the country.

This all, in many ways, reflects broader air defense global trends that have been emerging in China, Russia, North Korea, and elsewhere. As Adm. Caudle noted yesterday, there has also been cooperation on various levels between America’s adversaries, well beyond Iran and the Houthis, on the development and proliferation of more capable air defense systems.

The threat picture also goes beyond individual anti-air weapons and sensors. Fully-networked integrated air defenses, which offer a multitude of benefits when it comes to operational flexibility and more efficiently utilizing available resources, are only set to become a bigger part of the equation. These networks will be able to detect, successfully track, and engage targets in ways that federated air defense systems cannot. The barrier to entry in acquiring these capabilities is likely to keep dropping as time goes on, as well.

The Navy does still, of course, see F/A-XX as critical to projecting carrier-based airpower into denser, higher-end air defense threat ecosystems, especially in any future conflicts against a major competitor like China or Russia. A year ago, the U.S. Air Force released a report projecting that American aircraft will be challenged by anti-air missiles with ranges up to 1,000 miles by 2050.

“This [F/A-XX] is, again, a global solution, not just for a pressing scenario,” Adm. Caudle said yesterday.

As an aside, it is interesting to point out that the air defense arsenal of another smaller country, Syria, has been credited with helping ensure the F-22 survived post-Cold War drawdowns in defense spending. The program was severely truncated later on as a cost-cutting measure, a decision that has been increasingly questioned in hindsight.

The F/A-XX saga still has yet to play out, but Iranian air defenses, in particular, look to have emerged as a major factor in whatever the future might hold for that program.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Iran’s foreign minister says missile programme not up for negotiation as Trump says he’s sending more ships to the region.

Iran’s foreign minister says the country is ready for “fair and equitable” talks with the United States amid soaring tensions, as US President Donald Trump refused to rule out taking military action against Tehran.

On a visit to Turkiye on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters that, “Iran has no problem with negotiations, but negotiations cannot take place under the shadow of threats”.

“I should also state unequivocally that Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities – and Iran’s missiles – will never be the subject of any negotiations,” Araghchi said during a news conference alongside his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan.

“The security of the Iranian people is no one else’s business, and we will preserve and expand our defensive capabilities to whatever extent is necessary to defend the country.”

Tensions have been rising for weeks between Tehran and Washington amid Trump’s repeated threats to attack Iran over a recent crackdown on antigovernment protests and his push to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme.

Earlier this week, the US president said a “massive armada” – led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier – was moving towards Iran and was ready to use “violence, if necessary” if Iranian leaders did not agree to negotiate a nuclear deal.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Friday, Trump said his administration was sending “a larger number of ships” to Iran.

“And hopefully we’ll make a deal,” he said. “If we do make a deal, that’s good. If we don’t make a deal, we’ll see what happens.”

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett noted that Trump said he gave Iran a deadline, but “only Iran knows what that deadline is”.

“So he’s left the world in waiting, trying to determine what the next steps will be,” Halkett said.

Trump, who in 2018 unilaterally withdrew from a previous deal that saw Iran agree to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions, has been pressuring Iran to halt all uranium enrichment.

Washington has accused Tehran of seeking a nuclear weapon – a claim Iranian leaders have repeatedly denied.

Amid the latest tensions, senior officials in Tehran have repeatedly said they are open to negotiations, but only once Trump ends his military threats against the country.

They also have stressed that Iran’s armed forces are ready to respond if attacked.

Meanwhile, regional allies including Turkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to try to prevent a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier on Friday told his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in a call that Ankara was ready to play a “facilitator” role between the two sides.

Fidan, the Turkish foreign minister, also said he had long discussions on the issue with US special envoy Steve Witkoff on Thursday and would keep lines open with Washington.

Speaking alongside Araghchi on Friday, Fidan said US-Iran nuclear negotiations must restart and would pave the way to lifting sanctions on Iran.

“We call the parties to the negotiating table” to address the issues “one by one”, he said.

President Donald Trump says he is speaking to Iran’s leadership amid a significant US military build-up in the Middle East, as regional leaders push for diplomacy to avoid a new conflict.

Numerous US military assets in the Gulf region are ‘within the range of our medium-range missiles’, Iran’s military spokesman warns.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday the US is prepared to use “all options” to prevent Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons, while emphasizing that Washington is still leaving room for a diplomatic deal, Anadolu reports.

“With Iran right now, ensuring that they have all the options to make a deal. They should not pursue nuclear capabilities,” Hegseth said at a Cabinet meeting along with US President Donald Trump.

Trump reiterated Wednesday that a “massive armada” is headed to Iran, expressing hope that Tehran will “come to the table” and negotiate with Washington.

READ: Iran warns of uncontrollable consequences if attacked

Hegseth stressed that the Pentagon stands ready to carry out any directives issued by Trump, signaling that military options remain firmly on the table if diplomacy fails.

“We will be prepared to deliver whatever this president expects of the War Department, just like we did this month,” he said, referring to the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have reacted strongly to the latest threat issued by Trump, as a US military fleet moves toward Iranian waters amid escalating tensions between the longtime adversaries.

READ: Israeli, Saudi officials visit US for Iran talks amid military buildup: Report

The US has intensified threats against Iran if it doesn’t agree to its demands, as Trump says a ‘massive armada’ is amassing in the region. Al Jazeera’s Virginia Pietromarchi answers key questions on the latest escalation.

Published On 29 Jan 202629 Jan 2026

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As the Sundance Film Festival winds down its final edition in Park City, Utah, this week, ahead of its move to Boulder, Colo., next year, its sway over the nonfiction field at the Oscars remains as steady as ever. All five current Academy Award nominees for documentary feature premiered at last year’s festival, with Sundance films winning the category six times over the last decade.

“Sundance has been a kick-starter for my entire career,” says Ryan White, director of “Come See Me in the Good Light,” his fourth film to premiere at the festival. The intimate portrait of Colorado poet laureate Andrea Gibson, who faces a terminal diagnosis with a spirit of resilience, needed the boost. “The lead words are poetry and cancer, and it’s a character-driven film about a non-binary person,” White says. “It wasn’t the easiest film to get off the ground.” A similar challenge could apply to other nominees, including “Mr. Nobody vs. Putin” and “Cutting Through Rocks,” which focus on everyday individuals taking on oppressive systems in Russia and Iran, respectively. “There are the types of films that can get lost because they’re not about a celebrity, and they don’t have these marquee descriptors. Sundance does such an amazing job of discovering these diamonds.”

Andrea Gibson, left, and Megan Falley in “Come See Me in the Good Light.”

The exposure at the start of the film festival season “gives you that one-year runway that allows you to play festivals all year long,” says White, who was back at Sundance to celebrate the end of an era. He also knows the pain of not making the cut. “My first two films didn’t get into Sundance, and then my third one did. I’m always telling young filmmakers to use the Sundance rejection as fuel.”

A festival berth was strong motivation for “Mr. Nobody” filmmaker David Borenstein, who collaborated with his subject, a schoolteacher near the Ural Mountains named Pavel (“Pasha”) Talankin, as he quietly documented Russian propaganda efforts to rally his young students around the war in Ukraine. “That was the goal the entire time making this film,” says the director, an American based in Copenhagen. “I never thought once about anything after Sundance.” When the Danish Film Institute submitted his film as the country’s entry for the international feature Oscar, he had a new goal. “We were the last to start campaigning because we didn’t have a streamer behind us.”

Borenstein interrupted a family vacation in the Dominican Republic to return to Sundance for meetings and figure out next steps. “Forget winning or losing,” he says. “You have six weeks where you have a voice, where Pasha has a voice. How do you use it?” Talankin, who fled his home — first for Turkey, then the Czech Republic — is, for the moment, no longer “Mr. Nobody,” but as Borenstein notes, “He sacrificed his whole life to do this.”

Iranian American filmmakers Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki were well into the eight-year production of “Cutting Through Rocks” when they became recipients of a 2020 Sundance Documentary Fund grant. “The timing was perfect and we really, really, really needed that support,” says Khaki, joining Eyni on a video conversation from Park City, where their film won the Grand Jury Prize in the world cinema category last year. “Sundance is something beyond only the festival for us,” Eyni says. “It’s more about persistence as a filmmaker and the cinematic approach to the stories and sense of community.”

“Cutting Through Rocks” follows Sara Shahverdi, the first woman elected to the council of her northwestern Iranian village, as she challenges the practice of child marriage and other patriarchal norms and empowers young women by showing them how to ride motorbikes, as she does herself. The message of resistance feels relevant worldwide, but most urgently in Iran, where estimates of deaths during recent protests top 30,000 people. “We want small stories and anecdotes to remind us that we can bring change,” Eyni says, “even when it’s tough, even when it seems impossible.” Although the film is the first documentary from Iran to be nominated for an Oscar, the news has been hard to share there because of the government’s weeks-long internet blackout.

“We are experiencing a lot of complex emotions,” Eyni says.

Sara Shahverdi, the subject of Oscar-nominated documentary feature “Cutting Through Rocks.”

(Gandom Films)

Sundance thrives on exactly those kinds of feelings. The dramatic premiere of “Come See Me in the Good Light” was, for its filmmaker, “The best night of my entire career.” What began as a film about the end of Gibson’s life quickly became a story about the joy of a life well-lived, experienced alongside the charismatic subject’s wife, poet Megan Falley. When White broke the news about the film’s acceptance, “Andrea was so emotional saying, ‘You’re telling me if I survive for six more weeks, I might see this movie?’” he recalls. And they did.

“I think people fell in love with Andrea during the course of that film, but they probably assumed that Andrea had passed away, and they were about to see a card at the end of the film,” White continues. Then Gibson walked up. “It was like a rock star rising from the ashes. You could literally feel the theater vibrating.”