IMF

The Bank of the South: An Alternative to IMF and World Bank Dominance

In July, 2004, the IMF and
World Bank commemorated the 60th anniversary of their founding at Bretton Woods, NH to
provide a financial framework of assistance for the postwar world after the
expected defeat of Germany
and Japan.
With breathtaking hypocrisy, an October, 2004 Development Committee Communique
stated: “As we celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Bretton Woods
Institutions….we recommit ourselves to supporting efforts by developing
countries to pursue sustainable growth, sound macroeconomic policies, debt
sustainability, open trade, job creation, poverty reduction and good
governance.” Phew.

In fact, for 63 hellish years,
both these institutions achieved mirror opposite results on everything the
above comment states. From inception, their mission was to integrate developing
nations into the Global North-dominated world economy and use debt repayment as
the way to transfer wealth from poor countries to powerful bankers in rich
ones.

The scheme is called debt
slavery because new loans are needed to service old ones, indebtedness rises,
and borrowing terms stipulate harsh one-way “structural adjustment”
provisions that include:

  • privatizations of state
    enterprises;
  • government deregulation;
  • deep cuts in social
    spending;
  • wage freezes or cuts;
  • unrestricted free market
    access for foreign corporations;
  • corporate-friendly tax
    cuts;
  • crackdowns on trade
    unionists; and
  • savage repression for
    non-believers under a system incompatible with social democracy.

Everywhere the scheme is the
same: huge public wealth transfers to elitist private hands, exploding public
debt, an ever-widening disparity between the super-rich and desperate poor, and
an aggressive nationalism to justify huge spending on security for aggressive
surveillance, mass incarceration plus repression and torture for social
control.

An Alternative to Debt Slavery – The Bank of the South

Last December, Hugo Chavez
announced his idea for a Banco del Sur, or Bank of the South, as part of his
crusade against the institutions of international capital he calls “tools
of Washington.”
The bank will be officially launched at a presidential November 3 summit in Caracas, where it is to be headquartered, with seven
founding member-states – Venezuela,
Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay,
Paraguay, Bolivia and Ecuador.

On October 12, Colombia’s
President Alvaro Uribe announced his nation agreed to become the eighth member
but said “The decision is not a rejection to the World Bank or
Inter-American Development Bank, but a sign of solidarity and fraternity
towards the South American community.” At this time, only four South
American states aren’t included – Chile,
Peru, Guyana and Surinam,
but Chile seems likely to
come aboard following Colombia’s
lead, and the others may decide to join them.

Finance ministers from the
founding countries met in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil
October 8 to finalize the Bank’s Founding Document. Many key operating issues
have yet to be resolved, but unofficial information was that each nation will
commit 10% of its international reserves and have equal oversight over the new
institution. In a concluding news conference, Brazilian finance minister Guido
Mantega stated: the participating countries “have been able to overcome
all obstacles that were in the way of an understanding around the formation of
the Bank of the South. We can now say that the (bank) is close to becoming a
reality” even though Brazil
(Latin America’s largest economy) hasn’t yet
formalized its entry.

Venezuelan finance minister
Rodrigo Cabezas explained the bank will help develop the region by offering
South Americans more credits. It’s being “created to build a new
architecture that assumes an improved relationship of the bank and its capacity
to offer credits for its people.” It also aims to increase liquidity and
revive socioeconomic development and infrastructure investments in
participating countries and keep them outside the restrictive control of the
IMF and World Bank that are fast losing influence and being phased out of the
region.

In 2005, 80% of IMF’s $81
billion loan portfolio was to Latin America.
Today, it’s 1% with nearly all its $17 billion in outstanding loans to Turkey and Pakistan. The World Bank is also
being rejected. Venezuela
had already paid off its IMF and World Bank debt ahead of schedule when Hugo
Chavez symbolically announced on April 30: “We will no longer have to go
to Washington
nor to the IMF nor to the World Bank, not to anyone.” Ecuador’s Rafael
Correa is following suit. He cleared his country’s IMF debt, suspended World
Bank loans, accused the WB of trying to extort money from him when he was
economy and finance minister in 2005, and last April declared the Bank’s
country representative persona non grata in an extraordinary diplomatic slap in
the face.

The Banco del Sur will replace
these repressive institutions with $7 billion in startup capital when it begins
operating in 2008. It will be under “a new financial architecture”
for regional investment with the finance ministers of each member nation
sitting on the bank’s administrative council with equal authority over its
operations as things now stand. Venezuelan Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas
stressed the bank’s Latin roots, saying: “The idea is to rely on a
development agency for us, led by us” to finance public and private
development and regional integration projects. He added: “There will not
be credit subjected to economic policies. There will not be credit that
produces a calamity for our people and as a result, it will not be a tool of
domination” like the international lending agencies.

Hugo Chavez’s vision is to
liberate the region’s countries from IMF, World Bank, and Inter-American
Development Bank (IBD) control that condemn millions to poverty through their
lending practices. Helped by windfall oil profits, his government is already doing
it with an unprecedented commitment to provide financial aid and below-market
priced oil to regional and other countries. So far this year, it’s on the order
of around $9 billion, and, unlike the Washington-controlled kind, it comes at
low cost and with good will, a cooperative spirit and few if any strings.

Nobel laureate economist Joseph
Stiglitz recognizes Chavez’s efforts and stated his support for the Banco del
Sur on an October 10 visit to Caracas.
He said “One of the advantages of having a Bank of the South is that it
would reflect the perspectives of those in the South (while in contrast IMF and
World Bank conditions) hinder (regional) development effectiveness.”

Stiglitz met with Hugo Chavez
on his visit and praised his redistributive social policies. He also criticized
Washington Consensus neoliberal practices that exploit the region’s people,
“undermin(e)….Andean cooperation, and it is part of the American
strategy of divide and conquer, a strategy trying to get as much of the
benefits for American companies” at the expense of the region and its
people.

Venezuela’s acting ambassador to
the Permanent Mission to the UN, Aura Mahuampi Rodriguez de Ortiz, warned the
world body about Latin American debt during her participation in the General Debate
on Macroeconomic Policies in October. She stressed: “The persistence of
the foreign debt of the developing countries affects negatively on its process
of development. It is not worthy to direct resources for the development of
poor countries if such resources end up directed to the payment of the foreign
debt” instead of going to economic development internally. She also spoke
of the new Bank of the South, how it will help strengthen regional integration
and also fairly distribute investments and finance projects to reduce poverty
and social exclusion.

A less publicized Bank of ALBA
(Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas) will also begin operating by year end
under “a new regional financial architecture under principles that create
a new form of channeling financial resources” to its four country alliance
– Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua.

Chavez first proposed ALBA as
an alternative to the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) in 2001 with Venezuela, Cuba,
and Bolivia
its original members in December, 2004. Nicaragua then joined the alliance
in January, 2007 under its newly elected president, Daniel Ortega, who signed
on as his first act in office. ALBA’s goal is ambitious. It is the
comprehensive integration of the region and development of the “social
state” for all its people. It is boldly based on member states’
complementarity, not competition; solidarity, not domination; cooperation, not
exploitation; and respect for each participating nation’s sovereign right to be
free from the grip of other countries and corporate giants.

In April, the 5th ALBA summit
was held in Caracas
to discuss ways to improve the alliance. Initiatives covered included a
Permanent (coordinating) Secretariat and a plan to create 12 public companies
to be co-managed by ALBA member states. Its goal is to strengthen key economic
sectors in areas of energy, agriculture, telecommunications, infrastructure,
industrial supplies and cement production. ALBA country foreign ministers then
agreed in June to create a development Bank of ALBA to help finance these
ventures with low-cost credit. It will complement the Banco del Sur and also be
headquartered in Caracas.

Uncertain Future Prospects

Socially responsible regional
banks, like those discussed above, will challenge the dominant institutions of
finance capital if they fulfill their promise. But therein lies the problem.
These new institutions aren’t panaceas and they may end up letting capital
interests exploit them for their own advantage. In addition, financial autonomy
alone won’t free the region from Washington’s
grip without greater change. What’s needed are sweeping nationalizations of
basic industries, an end to one-way WTO-style trade deals, socially
redistributing national resources, developing local economies, achieving land
and housing reform, plus a sweeping commitment to social equity and a resolve
to end a 25 year neoliberal nightmare. From 1960 to 1980, the region’s per
capita income growth was 82%. From 1980 to 2000, however, it was 9%, and from
2000 to 2005 only 4%. For the region, it meant sweeping poverty, inequality and
the most extreme disparity between the super-rich and desperate poor in the
world. 

Change is needed, and Venezuela under
Hugo Chavez has done most in the region to achieve it. Finance Minister Rodrigo
Cabezas just presented his government’s 2008 budget to the National Assembly
that allocates 46% of it to social spending. It devotes special attention to
health and education but also to subsidized and free food, land reform,
housing, micro credit, job training, cooperatives and more as Chavez continues
to use his nation’s resources to address the needs of his people. Since he took
office, social spending per person is up more than threefold and in 2006 was
20.9% of GDP.

Chavez now has an ally in Ecuador under
Rafael Correa, whose early efforts are promising. Hopefully, they’ll continue
under a new constitution to be drafted in the next six months and then put to a
national referendum next year. Other Bank of the South founding countries like Brazil, Argentina,
and Bolivia,
however, claim to be center-left but, in fact, embrace 1990s neoliberalism, and
financial autonomy won’t change that. The Bank of the South will only work if
it fulfills a mandate to prioritize local needs and development, not corporate
ones. That’s a tall order, and achieving it won’t be easy with its dominant
member, Brazil under Lula,
closely tied to Washington
and in its grip.

Nonetheless, small signs of
change are emerging, the Bank of the South may be one of them, and a new
generation of leftist leaders may in the end break Washington’s weakening (but still strong)
hold on the region. That’s the hope, and every step forward means more power to
the people and another possible world.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago
and can be reached at [email protected].

Also visit his blog
site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to The Steve Lendman News and
Information Hour on TheMicroEffect.com Mondays at noon US central time.

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After Bangkok Floods, IMF and World Bank Weigh Global Risks

IMF and World Bank’s annual meeting explores economic resilience amid climate risk, debt pressure, and AI.

While walking around central Bangkok, it’s easy to miss the damage that prompted IMF and World Bank officials at their annual meeting to consider postponing this week’s event. 

No evidence of the extreme flooding elsewhere in the city, which caused so much damage and loss of life just a week ago, is visible. Life goes on—scooters buzz and trucks barrel down the expressways and narrow streets where vendors hawk exotic foods and trinkets. Bangkok officials did an admirable job cleaning up to prepare for the arrival of some 15,000 attendees, and the area surrounding the convention center is as dry—and secure—as it’s probably ever been. 

Inside the meetings, though, the question was how much more disruption—climate-related or otherwise—the global economy can absorb, and who can afford to recover when the next shock arrives.

At Tuesday’s World Economic Outlook briefing, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro described a world economy being pulled in two directions. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, while investment in artificial intelligence has helped drive growth. The IMF outlook projects global growth of 3.1% this year, but that headline figure masks sharp differences among countries. Energy exporters and countries driving the AI boom are better positioned, she said, than those that must import fuel or have little stake in the massive technology surge.

“The economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” Tenreyro said at the briefing.

The economy is holding up, in part, because countries and companies have navigated disruptions by rerouting supplies, drawing down inventories, improving efficiency, and finding alternatives. Without those adjustments, the IMF estimates global growth would be closer to 2.5%.

But these measures have limits. Inventories run down. Efficiency gains can only go so far. And another shock—whether geopolitical or climate-related—could arrive before economies have recovered from the last one.

G-24’s Climate and Debt Dilemmas

The Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development, or G-24, which represents emerging-market and developing economies, brought the issue closer to home. Nigeria’s finance minister and G-24 chair, Taiwo Oyedele, cited the flooding in Thailand to argue that climate commitments need to be backed by money, not just promises.

“Our appeal to world leaders is to put their money where their mouth is,” he said in a separate briefing shortly after WEO’s.

For businesses, resilience has a price. Holding extra inventory, diversifying suppliers, and keeping cash on hand can seem like unnecessary costs when markets are stable. But during a disruption, they can keep production moving and prevent higher costs from affecting the business.

Countries face a similar trade-off but lack the same resources. Developing economies need funding for infrastructure, climate preparedness, and basic services, even as debt payments consume a large share of public funds. Oyedele cited estimates that developing countries pay roughly $500 billion more in debt costs than developed economies. His broader point is clear: The countries that need to invest in resilience often face the highest financing costs.

Iyabo Masha, director and head of the Secretariat of the G-24, described the dilemma this way: “Debt is something that restrains growth.” When governments spend so much on creditors, she said, they have less left to invest in their economies.

The AI Factor

Another uncertainty in the IMF’s outlook is that AI investment may boost growth, but its benefits do not necessarily translate into jobs. Oyedele warned that countries with younger populations could see growth alongside rising unemployment if they do not plan carefully. Growth, he said, “has to be job rich; it has to be inclusive.”

That’s a broad definition of resilience—not simply keeping an economy growing, but ensuring people benefit and that governments retain the capacity to respond when circumstances change.

In Bangkok, the discussions have ranged from growth forecasts to debt and climate finance. But the underlying question is who can afford to prepare for the next disruption and who will be left to pay for recovery.

Central Bangkok shows little sign of the recent flooding, but that doesn’t mean the damage elsewhere was any less severe. The same holds for the global economy: A resilient growth forecast doesn’t mean every country is equally prepared for the next shock. The question is how much each can afford to absorb—and what it might have to give up to recover.

Paul Curcio is the editor of Global Finance Magazine. Contact him at paul.curcio@gfmag.com.

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Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says | Business and Economy News

Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar face double-digit declines in GDP amid the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.

The economy of the Middle East and Central Asia is set to shrink in 2026 amid the fallout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with countries such as Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit contractions, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to contract by 0.3 percent this year, a sharp downgrade from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, the IMF said in its latest economic outlook on Tuesday.

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The IMF cited the prolonged disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies in peacetime, for the downgraded outlook.

Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are forecast to have the most severe economic contractions, with their GDPs expected to shrink by 16.7 percent, 16 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively.

Bahrain’s GDP is forecast to contract by 11.3 percent, while Iran’s economy is projected to shrink by 7.6 percent.

Saudi Arabia, which has partially offset the hit to its energy sector by boosting oil exports through the East-West pipeline, is projected to record negative growth of 3.3 percent.

Kyrgyzstan is expected to have the strongest growth in the region, with GDP forecast to expand 9 percent.

The Middle East and Central Asia is the only region that is expected to experience negative growth in 2026.

Emerging and developing Asia’s GDP is forecast to grow 5.1 percent, while the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to expand 4.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are forecast to register growth of 2.3 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, while the eurozone’s GDP is estimated to grow 1.1 percent.

The IMF said it expected global GDP to grow 3.1 percent, up from 3 percent in its previous outlook.

The Washington, DC-based institution said while economic activity had proved resilient this year, the global economy faced multiple risks.

“Further escalation in conflicts, a reassessment of expectations surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), renewed trade tensions, and fiscal vulnerabilities could weaken growth,” it said.

“On the upside, stronger momentum in AI investment and productivity gains from AI or a sustained easing of geopolitical and trade tensions could strengthen growth.”

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