Hormuz

When the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes each day—effectively ceased to function as a shipping corridor. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by warning off tanker traffic, and within days maritime transit had fallen to nearly zero. The consequences were immediate and severe: Brent crude has not dropped below the $100 threshold since March 13 and touched $119 on March 19 following Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gasfield and retaliatory Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and the UAE. For Venezuela, a country sitting atop the world’s largest proven reserves but producing around 900,000 to one million barrels per day (a fraction of its historical capacity of over 3 million in the late 1990s) the disruption arrived at a peculiar moment. It was not a crisis of Venezuela’s making. But how Caracas responds to it may define the country’s energy trajectory for years to come.

On paper, the arithmetic is striking. Alejandro Grisanti, director of Ecoanalítica, estimates that Venezuela receives approximately $400 million in additional revenue for every extra dollar in the average crude price. This figure, at current price levels, represents a fiscal windfall without precedent in the post-Maduro transition. Venezuelan crude exports had already rebounded sharply in February to around 788,000 barrels per day (up from a depressed 383,000 bpd in January, when the post-Maduro-arrest disruption had frozen trade flows), with US refineries absorbing the majority of shipments directly through Chevron or energy intermediaries. Of course, production and exports are different things: Venezuela produces roughly one million bpd but consumes some 230,000 bpd domestically, meaning effective export capacity sits considerably below gross output.

The Hormuz disruption accelerated the export recovery dynamic: with Gulf supply stranded and Asian buyers scrambling for alternatives, Venezuelan crude became a more attractive proposition. Washington has responded in kind. On March 18, the US Treasury issued a broad license authorizing established American entities to conduct transactions with PDVSA directly, a landmark shift after years of near-total sanctions isolation, explicitly framed as a supply-side response to the Iran war. There are structural constraints baked into the relief: payments cannot flow directly to sanctioned Venezuelan entities but must pass through US-controlled accounts, and transactions involving Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, or designated Chinese entities remain prohibited. The US will allow the oil trade, but it will control the cash flow.

The production ceiling, however, remains a formidable obstacle, and not merely a financial one. Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt produces extra-heavy crude with an API gravity typically in the 8–16° range and high sulfur content, which cannot simply be blended into a market substitute for the medium-sour grades displacing from the Persian Gulf. To reach export markets, Orinoco crude must either pass through an upgrader—facilities like Petropiar, which converts it to a synthetic crude of around 26° API—or be diluted with imported naphtha or lighter crude to create exportable blends like Merey. This means Venezuelan barrels serve a specific refinery profile: predominantly the cooking-capable refineries along the US Gulf Coast, which are well-suited to process heavy, sulfurous feedstocks. They are not a drop-in replacement for Middle Eastern crude, but a complementary supply for a defined segment of global refining capacity.

The US military backstop, the reformed hydrocarbon law, and now the broad PDVSA sanctions relief have together reduced the perception of expropriation risk and policy reversal that kept capital at bay for two decades.

ExxonMobil, whose assets were expropriated twice under chavismo, announced it would send an evaluation team to Venezuela within weeks, with Senior Vice President Jack Williams acknowledging the company’s heavy oil expertise from Canadian operations in Kearl and Cold Lake. The caveat was pointed: “Today it’s uninvestable,” CEO Darren Woods had said in January, and Williams’ more cautious optimism reflects the institutional memory of a company burned twice.

Chevron and PDVSA have meanwhile agreed on preliminary terms to expand Petropiar into the adjacent Ayacucho 8 block of the Orinoco Belt, while Shell is in advanced talks to develop the Carito and Pirital fields in eastern Monagas. These are among the few areas that produce the light and medium crude needed as diluent and blendstock for Venezuela’s heavy exports. Delcy Rodríguez has projected fresh oil investments of $1.4 billion for the year under the amended hydrocarbons law. These are meaningful steps. But a preliminary deal and a production ramp are different things. Rystad Energy estimates that simply holding production flat at around 1.1 million bpd requires $53 billion in upstream investment over 15 years, and getting to 2 million bpd by 2032 would demand $8–9 billion per year in sustained capital.

What has shifted—materially and quickly—is market sentiment about Venezuela as an investable destination, and the trajectory is meaningfully positive. Dozens of US hedge funds, asset managers, and energy investors are organizing trips to Caracas in the coming weeks: Signum Global Advisors is running a two-day conference in Venezuela from March 22–24 with 55 participants, roughly half of whom are bondholders who own or have recently purchased Venezuelan government and PDVSA debt (both in default since 2017).

Separate delegations invited by Trans-National Research and other groups are arriving, with agendas featuring meetings with Rodríguez and PDVSA CEO Héctor Obregón. The interest marks a sharp break from the isolation of the Maduro years. Country risk, while still elevated in absolute terms, has been repriced substantially since January: the US military backstop, the reformed hydrocarbon law, and now the broad PDVSA sanctions relief have together reduced the perception of expropriation risk and policy reversal that kept capital at bay for two decades.

Venezuela’s challenge is to use this window of geopolitical necessity to lock in investment commitments, debt restructuring negotiations, and production agreements that survive the normalization of oil markets.

What investors are now stress-testing is no longer whether Venezuela is open for business, but whether the legal and institutional architecture is durable enough to support long-horizon commitments. As analysts at Debatesiesa have noted in examining Venezuelan financial markets, sentiment can shift on headlines, but binding investment decisions require structural reforms and credible enforcement mechanisms. The framework is improving; the question is whether it improves fast enough, and on a stable enough trajectory, to convert this geopolitical moment into a genuine investment cycle.

The deeper question the Hormuz crisis forces is one of timing and durability. Oil prices are now trading above $110 per barrel and analysts at Wood Mackenzie and Rystad are no longer dismissing scenarios above $150 while the conflict shows no sign of imminent resolution, with Pete Hegseth signaling the “largest strike package yet” against Iran on March 19. The EIA, in its latest forecast issued prior to these newest escalations, projected Brent to remain above $95 through the next two months before falling below $80 in the third quarter of 2026 if supply flows gradually normalize. Whether that normalization materializes is the variable on which everything else depends. Venezuela’s challenge is not simply to capture today’s price premium, but to use this window of geopolitical necessity to lock in investment commitments, debt restructuring negotiations, and production agreements that survive the normalization of oil markets.

The country has rarely faced a more favorable confluence of factors: surging global demand for its barrels, a reformed legal framework for private investment, an unprecedented degree of US political and financial backing, and prices that make otherwise marginal projects viable. Whether Caracas—and the Rodríguez administration in particular—has the institutional bandwidth to convert a crisis into structural recovery, rather than another cycle of windfall and waste, is the defining question of Venezuela’s energy sector in 2026.

Venerable A-10 Warthog attack jets are helping dismantle Iran’s Navy. Though the A-10 is most commonly associated with missions over land, the jets have a long-standing, if often obscure, maritime role. Moreover, Warthog pilots have been training for decades for the specific scenario of hunting Iran’s fleets of fast boats in and around the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz. All of this comes as the U.S. military works to find ways to reopen the critical waterway to normal maritime commerce, which has ground to a virtual halt in the face of Iranian attacks on shipping and its declaration that the strait is closed.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine discussed the A-10’s contribution to the current conflict with Iran at a Pentagon press conference this morning. The U.S. military has previously disclosed the basic fact that Warthogs have been supporting what is dubbed Operation Epic Fury. A-10s have previously been seen attacking Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The A-10 is very much in the twilight of its career, with the Air Force hoping to have the type retired for good by the end of the decade, if not sooner.

“The A-10 Warthog is now in the fight across the southern flank [of Iran] and is hunting and killing fast attack watercraft in the Strait of Hormuz,” Caine said.

Caine also said that AH-64 Apache attack helicopters are now operating in a similar manner as the A-10, but did not say specifically that they were being used against maritime targets. He did note that U.S. allies in the region have been using their own AH-64s to help shoot down incoming Iranian drones, something that has been observed already in the course of the current conflict. Israel has long used Apaches in the counter-drone role, and TWZ has been closely tracking work to expand the helicopter’s capabilities in this regard, including by the U.S. Army.

“We continue to hunt and kill [Iranian] afloat assets, including more than 120 vessels and 44 mine layers,” the Chairman also said, speaking more broadly. The total destruction of Iran’s naval forces is one of the core stated goals of Operation Epic Fury.

When it comes to the A-10, as noted, despite years of the aircraft being referred to as a ‘single mission’ platform geared solely to close air support missions in support of ground forces, it has long had a maritime role. Just weeks before the current conflict erupted, the U.S. military underscored this reality by releasing pictures showing Warthogs training together with the USS Santa Barbara, a U.S. Navy Independence class Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) in the Persian Gulf.

As we wrote at that time:

“The irony here is that the A-10’s continued use in the Middle East goes against a prevailing narrative that the Warthog needs to go because its utility is limited on the modern battlefield. This argument is not without merit, but it assumes that every tactical air asset in the inventory needs to be able to fight on the front lines on day one of a conflict with a peer-adversary, and that there are not many other tasks needing to be done beyond firing the shots at the ‘tip of the spear’ during such a conflict. It’s also worth noting that the A-10 remains the least expensive tactical jet to operate in the USAF’s stable.”

“Regardless of the A-10’s impending fate, its ability to deliver rapid, highly precise attacks on small, fast-moving targets, and its ability to loiter for extended periods while soaking up small arms fire, means that its talents can be applied directly to the maritime domain. This is especially true when it comes to countering small boats that can pose a big danger to much larger ships. Such asymmetric dangers are only amplified for ships operating in tight, complex littoral environments, where threats can emerge quickly and attack in large packs, leaving even the most powerful warship’s defenses overwhelmed.”

This particular exercise also underscored the danger posed by Iranian naval mines, and how A-10s could help protect ships tasked to clear them. The Santa Barbara is one of three Independence class LCSs configured for minesweeping duties that had been forward deployed in the Middle East last year to fill gaps left by the decommissioning of a quartet of Avenger class mine hunters. Those ships have become a separate topic of discussion after two of them, the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara, emerged thousands of miles away to the east, first in Malaysia and now in Singapore. Why the Navy sent those ships not just out of harm’s way in the Middle East in the run-up to the current conflict, but then to an entirely different theater remains largely unexplained.

In general, threats posed by small boats, especially operating in swarms, are not new. This is also an area where Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has invested heavily for decades, as TWZ has explored in the past. U.S. officials have previously declared the Iranian Navy to have been rendered combat ineffective, but many of the more than 120 ships it has targeted so far have been larger vessels. Iran has hundreds of fast boats, some of which are armed with short-range anti-ship missiles, as well as artillery rockets and other weapons. They can also be used to lay naval mines. These fleets are inherently harder to find and fix, and do not need large ports to operate from. The A-10’s attributes, including its long loiter time, make it a key tool for interdicting these threats.

All of this is now further magnified by the expanding use of explosive-laden drone boats. Though kamikaze uncrewed surface vessels are now firmly in the public consciousness as a result of their use in the conflict in Ukraine, Iran and its regional proxies pioneered their use in Middle Eastern waterways years beforehand. This is a capability that Iran has now brought to bear in its efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to regular maritime traffic.

In terms of air defense threats around the Strait of Hormuz, this likely comes mainly from shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, or man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), at this point in the conflict. Despite concerns voiced about their survivability over the years, A-10s are capable of fighting in that kind of threat ecosystem.

U.S. Central Command has previously released pictures showing Warthogs flying in support of Epic Fury carrying loadouts that include 70mm APKWS II laser-guided rockets and AGM-65 Maverick air-to-surface missiles, as well as AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. The A-10s also have their iconic built-in 30mm GAU-8/A Avenger cannons. APKWS IIs, AGM-65s, and the GAU-8/A are all weapons that can be effectively employed against targets at sea, including small boats, along with various threats on land.

These are also just the A-10 loadouts that have been shared publicly. The Warthogs can carry a wide array of other precision-guided munitions that could be employed against Iranian boats sitting in port or on the move in and around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as other targets.

As an aside, when A-10s carry AIM-9Ms, it is typically for self-defense, but the Warthogs could also possibly use those missiles to engage Iranian one-way attack drones if the opportunity were to arise. A-10s are also capable of employing air-to-air optimized versions of the APKWS II rocket against drones, as you can read more about here.

Chairman Caine’s confirmation this morning that A-10s are flying missions over and around the Strait of Hormuz also comes amid a clear uptick in overall U.S. operations in this particular area.

“As reported by U.S. Central Command yesterday, the U.S. military dropped 5,000-pound penetrator weapons into underground storage facilities storing coastal defense cruise missiles and other support equipment,” Caine also said. “These [bunker-buster] weapons are bespokely designed to get through concrete and or rocks and function after penetrating those barriers.”

The Chairman did not name the bombs in question, which have previously been reported to have been new GBU-72/B types, as you can learn more about here.

“We continue to hunt and kill mine storage facilities and naval ammunition depots,” Caine added.

It is possible that the A-10’s role in the littorals along Iran’s southern coast could expand in the coming weeks. Reuters reported yesterday that the U.S. military is considering a range of new options for trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including a possible ground incursion to temporarily occupy parts of the Iranian shoreline. A potential mission to seize control of Iran’s highly strategic Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf has also been raised. A group of Navy amphibious warfare ships laden with Marines is already reportedly on its way to the Middle East. U.S. Navy warships escorting convoys of commercial vessels through the strait is another possibility, but American officials have downplayed the prospect of that starting any time soon. Any of these courses of action entails significant risks.

U.S. President Donald Trump has notably gone back and forth in recent days about a desire for a broader international mission to help get commercial ships flowing again through the strait. After being publicly rebuffed by several allies and partners, Trump said the United States no longer required any help.

“I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Straight?’ [sic],” Trump then wrote yesterday in a post on his Truth Social site. “That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!”

Trump: “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Straight?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!! President DJT” pic.twitter.com/pwbF1lYELS

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 18, 2026

In the meantime, we know that A-10s are now actively on the hunt for Iranian maritime threats around the Strait of Hormuz as part of what could be one of the Warthog’s last major combat deployments ever.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Few people know the Middle East as well as Joseph Votel. From March 2016 to March 2019, the retired Army general served as the commander of U.S. Central Command, overseeing American military operations in the region. A big part of that job was planning for contingencies like what would become Operation Epic Fury, and especially how they would affect the massively strategic waterway that joins the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman — the tumultuous Strait of Hormuz. This waterway, in which about 20% of the world’s oil passes, is currently shutdown by Iran.

In the first part of our wide-ranging exclusive interview with Votel, we focus on what is happening in the Strait. The author transited the Strait with Votel, now a Distinguished Military Fellow at the Middle East Institute, in 2016 and got a first-hand look as Iranian ships shadowed the USS New Orleans.

Some of the questions and answers have been lightly edited for clarity.

Q: How surprised were you that the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, attacked shipping and Arab nations?

A: I’m not particularly surprised. I expected that they would attack some of the Gulf partners, but I did not think they would go after civilian targets. I thought they would go after military installations, particularly our military installations in most countries, but going after things like hotels and civilian airports, things like that, I think was, was not expected. I was a little surprised that they would do that. I think we certainly expected them to respond to it and of course, trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, I think was very expected.

Q: Did you expect that?

A: Oh yeah.

Q: Why?

A: Because it’s their principal advantage. They control that terrain. They have the advantage over the Strait of Hormuz. They know it’s a critical choke point. They know it’s a pain point for many, and they knew it would cause the discussion that it’s causing right now.

Q: How much pain do you think the Arab allies can sustain during this fight?

A: Well, I think they’re actually proving pretty resilient right now and they’re doing a good job defending themselves. Some of [the missiles and drones] are getting through, but it hasn’t been catastrophic in terms of that. Obviously, some damage… That’s not good. But they’re doing a pretty good job of defending themselves. 

And I think as you have seen from some of the open source reporting today, some of the Arab countries are beginning to run out of patience here, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, of course, and we may see them lash back out. But they are also watching very carefully what the United States is doing, along with the Israelis, and they see that we are striking back very, very hard at the Iranians. So I think that that helps them to be a little bit more patient. We haven’t stepped away from this. We’re still very, very engaged, and I think that allows them to be a little bit more patient as we work through this.

Q: How feasible or not is a mission to escort ships in the Strait and de-mine it? What are the challenges and dangers of that?

A: Well, first of all, it’s very feasible. The United States Navy has a history of doing this kind of stuff, and they have, for the most part, all the resources that are required for this. 

I think the most important thing to appreciate before we really kind of get into the Strait of Hormuz here, is to appreciate what’s preparatory to doing all that. We really have to kind of finish this campaign that’s already been started. That is focused on reducing the Iranian capabilities to a very significant degree. And that’s what’s happening right now.

I think we need to appreciate that CENTCOM is executing a war plan here that’s going to take some weeks to destroy the military capability, and then they will be in a position – they’ll set the condition, so to speak – so they can actually go and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and then direct and escort tankers through there. 

For the most part, we have all the resources that we need for that. As I mentioned, it might be helpful to get some additional resources from our international partners. And I’m not sure that’s going to happen based on some of the politics around all that and how we engaged and not engaged them in the lead up to this. But the United States Navy and Marine Corps and other joint services are, I think, are fully prepared to do that.

Q: Have the engagements we’ve had with foreign nations been helpful or hurtful or the ability to draw in assistance for any escort effort?

A: Well, we’ve had a pretty adversarial discussion going on, particularly with our European allies for at least the last 12 to 14 months with them. We haven’t really sent a positive signal. And the whole thing about Greenland and getting everybody fired up over that, and pushing that kind of thing, I think really gave some pause to them. 

And of course, you know, there’s continuous rhetoric coming from across the administration towards this, and in the lead up to this, we apparently didn’t do any kind of consultation with any of our partners that we expected would be impacted by this, or whose resources we thought we would need.

Now, coming back after things have been joined and they haven’t been consulted, I think makes it really, really hard for us to get them involved. And I think it makes it hard for those international partners to sign on with this readily, very, very readily, without a lot of debate and understanding what they’re getting into. So we really didn’t set the conditions very well for if we thought we needed international support on this. 

And we usually do. I mean, that’s a normal thing that we do. We generally always try to fight as a coalition, because it gives us credibility. It gives us additional resources. And it kind of helps share the burden a little bit, and it makes everybody feel like they’re part of the solution to this. But in this case – with the exception of Israel – we pretty much chose to go it alone.

Q: We talked about the importance of keeping the Strait open while we were transiting it when you commanded CENTCOM. What’s your worst case scenario for the Strait now, given the current situation?

A: I think the worst case now would be if we’ve found positive evidence of the Strait being mined… That would really extend out the time [for opening the Strait]. We probably have to assume that there are mines in there right now. But a serious mining effort by Iran could really complicate and slow things down. 

Mine clearing is very deliberate. It’s very slow. It’s very frustrating. It’s that way if you’re doing it on land, and it’s that certainly if you’re doing it at sea. So to me, I think that kind of represents the most challenging thing that we would have to deal with. I mean, we can get [combat air patrols] Air CAPs up over this. We seem to be doing a good job going after missiles and drones and shore-based systems. We’ve destroyed a lot of the Iranian Navy and the IRGC Navy, and we can continue to ping on [Fast Attack Craft] FACs and [Fast Inshore Attack Craft ] FIACS – things like that that they might send in there. 

But the mines, I think, are a really, really hard issue. And when we think about one of these big tankers, so they are just really vulnerable, they’re thin-hulled, getting into this very narrow traffic scheme that’s there – two miles wide, right in the middle of the Strait and then hitting a mine and being disabled on the spot. Not only will we have a mine problem, we have a disabled ship problem and an ecological disaster, and a whole bunch of other things there. So in my view, I think the worst case situation kind of looks like a deliberate mining effort by the Iranians.

Q: Can the Gulf allies protect the Strait on their own? Some have expressed fear that the U.S. could end Epic Fury before the Strait is secured.

A: I don’t know. I don’t think so. They are a little dated in some of their capabilities. There hasn’t been a huge investment in the resources that would be necessary for keeping the Strait open in an armed conflict scenario. You need destroyers. You need a bunch of them. You need to be able to maintain several air CAPS up over it. You need to have extensive ISR. You need to have boarding parties. You need to have all the other stuff, like mine sweepers.

And I don’t know that they have that. They may have all the pieces and parts of it across some of the Gulf countries, although I doubt they have the number of frigates that would be needed. But then bringing that together, they don’t necessarily have a great history of coming together for these kinds of things and combining these capabilities under a unified command other than the United States. I think it would be a challenge for the Gulf partners to be able to do that.

In our next segment, Votel talks about the highly strategic Kharg Island and how recovering uranium in Iran would be a more massive effort than most people think, among other topics.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Several European nations and Japan have issued a joint statement saying they would take steps to stabilise energy markets, a day after several strikes on energy facilities in the Gulf region sent oil and gas prices soaring amid the United States-Israel war on Iran.

The leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan issued a joint statement on Thursday expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the [Hormuz] Strait.”

They did not specify what those efforts may entail but urged for “an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations”.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) last week authorised a coordinated release of its members’ strategic petroleum reserves, the largest in its history, in an attempt to counter rising global energy prices. “We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations ‌to increase output,” the statement said.

Markets have been hammered since the start of the war on February 28, with Tehran hitting sites across the Gulf and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas flows.

European leaders have rejected demands by United States President Donald Trump ⁠to help ensure freedom of navigation in the Gulf’s key oil chokepoint by deploying warships as part of a naval coalition.

Thursday’s joint statement came ahead of a long-scheduled White House meeting between Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, aimed at burnishing the decades-old security and economic partnership between Washington and its closest East Asian ally.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said before the meeting on Thursday that he would expect that Japan, which gets 95 percent of its crude oil supplies from the Gulf, would want to ensure its supplies are safe.

Takaichi has sought to move Japan away from ⁠a pacifist constitution imposed by Washington after World War II, but with the Iran war unpopular at home, she has so far not offered to assist in clearing the Strait of Hormuz.

The Japanese prime minister told parliament on Monday that Tokyo had received no official request from the US, but was checking the scope of possible action within the limits of its constitution.

Soaring energy prices

Major economies have been scrambling to cushion the impact of soaring energy prices after the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.

Concerns were compounded on Wednesday when Iran hit the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility, Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, in retaliation for an Israeli attack on its South Pars gas field.

QatarEnergy reported “extensive damage” from Iranian missiles in Ras Laffan, which produces about 20 percent of the world’s LNG supply and plays a major role in balancing Asian and European markets’ demand for the fuel.

The company’s CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, said Iran’s attacks damaged facilities that produce ⁠17 percent of QatarEnergy’s LNG exports and that it would take ‌three to five years to repair.

Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said Iran’s claims that it is targeting US bases are “unacceptable and unjustified”, as the attack on Ras Laffan shows that it is targeting energy infrastructure that is vital for Qatar and the entire world.

Energy prices have soared and stocks sunk amid the region’s protracted instability, reigniting fears over global supplies and inflation as well as the likely damage to economic growth.

European gas prices were up 25 percent and Brent crude oil futures nearly 6 percent at $113 at 13:00 GMT on Thursday after briefly surging about 10 percent. European gas prices have leapt by over 60 percent since the war began on February 28.

James Meadway, co-director of the Verdant economic policy think tank, said this would not be “a temporary blip” in the prices of oil and gas.

“In addition to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, we now have a severe disruption to the basic production of oil and gas,” Meadway told Al Jazeera.

“At this point, this looks like it will be a significant rise in those prices stretching off into the distance.”

WASHINGTON — The Iranian government remains “intact but largely degraded,” National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard told Congress on Wednesday, as Israel continued to hunt down the Islamic Republic’s leadership with an overnight airstrike that killed the nation’s spy chief.

The death of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, announced Wednesday by Israel, was the third high-level assassination in roughly 24 hours in a series of strikes that have hollowed out Tehran’s leadership ranks.

Israel ordered strikes Tuesday that killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani and Basij paramilitary commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Additional senior Iranian figures could be targeted, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday. “Israel’s policy is clear and unequivocal: No one in Iran has immunity — everyone is a target,” Katz said.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, issued a rare statement Wednesday addressing Larijani’s assassination.

“Undoubtedly, the assassination of such a person shows the extent of his importance and the hatred of the enemies of Islam towards him,” he wrote, according to the Associated Press. “All blood has its price that the criminal murderers of the martyrs must pay soon.”

Tehran responded with renewed missile and drone attacks on Israel and U.S.-aligned countries across the Persian Gulf, further disrupting strained energy infrastructure and shipping lanes. Fighting has halted oil and gas production throughout the region, as shipping was stalled through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supplies.

The war has triggered a severe global oil shortage that has destabilized electronics, agriculture, pharmaceutical and energy supply chains.

Exacerbating those disruptions, the U.S. and Israel carried out a coordinated attack on the South Pars natural gas field on Wednesday. The strikes drew swift condemnation from Qatar, a U.S. ally that shares the reservoir with Iran. The Qatari Foreign Ministry called the attack “dangerous and irresponsible” and “a threat to global energy security.”

The attack is a major blow to Iran’s supply of electricity too, as most of the country’s energy grid relies on gas, analysts said. The field accounts for about 75% of Iran’s natural gas production.

Tehran promised to respond with more attacks on its Mideast neighbors, the Associated Press reported.

Meanwhile, near-constant Israeli strikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have displaced over 1 million people, and killed 968 civilians, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

With the war in its third week, deaths now number in the thousands across Iran, Israel and neighboring countries.

International reaction has sharpened as the fighting showed no sign of relenting. Russia condemned the “murder and liquidation” of sovereign leadership and called for an immediate ceasefire, while European leaders voiced growing alarm about the war’s trajectory and the risks of broader destabilization.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testifies Wednesday before the Senate Committee on Intelligence.

(Jose Luis Magana / Associated Press)

All allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have refused to heed President Trump’s call to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a deepening rift in the world’s most powerful military alliance. Trump has sought to sever the U.S. from the alliance.

“We no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! “ he wrote on social media Tuesday.

Trump on Wednesday signaled little appetite for de-escalation, floating the prospect of a decisive military endgame.

“I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State,” he wrote on his social media website.

The president visited Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, where the remains of six U.S. service members killed in the crash of a refueling aircraft were returned to their families. The visit marks the second time since the Feb. 28 launch of the war with Iran that Trump has attended the solemn military ritual known as a dignified transfer, the Associated Press reported.

At a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on “worldwide threats” Wednesday, Democrats grilled Gabbard and other intelligence leaders over their preparation for Iranian retaliation against Mideast energy infrastructure, civilian areas and American military sites and personnel.

Trump has maintained that the U.S. was caught off guard by Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

“Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” he said at a Kennedy Center board meeting Monday. Later in the day, when asked at an Oval Office news briefing whether he had been warned about the possibility of Iranian retaliation, Trump reiterated his surprise.

“Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit,” he said.

Last year, intelligence agencies testified to Congress that Iran was capable of inflicting substantial damage on an attacker, executing regional strikes and disrupting shipping, “particularly energy supplies, through the Strait of Hormuz,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said at the hearing, reading from last year’s worldwide threats report.

“In other words, every problem we’re seeing now was not only foreseeable, but was actually predicted by the intelligence agencies,” Wyden told Gabbard. “It’s hard to see how you can sit here and say that the intelligence agencies couldn’t provide a clear warning that if attacked, the Iranians would respond by attacking our people.”

Gabbard refused to confirm whether intelligence agencies briefed the president on the subject, saying she “won’t divulge internal conversations.”

She also testified that U.S. strikes on Iran had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear enrichment program, including underground facilities, and said officials are now watching to see whether Tehran attempts to rebuild. So far, she said, Iran has not restarted the program.

But Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) challenged that assessment, noting that Trump had used the same word — “obliterated” — to describe strikes just months before. He pressed Gabbard on how serious the nuclear threat was leading up to the February operation, given that timeline.

The intelligence community assessed that Iran “maintained the intention to rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment,” Gabbard said adding that the “only person” who can determine what constitutes an imminent threat is the president.

“False,” Ossoff shot back. “It is precisely your responsibility to determine what constitutes a threat to the United States.”

PARIS — We’ve long had your back, now it’s our turn. That is how the famously transactional President Trump is framing his demands that allies help him with the Iran war. He wants to call in IOUs for decades of U.S. security guarantees.

The string of refusals indicates his stock of European goodwill is low. He has put allies through the wringer since returning to the White House, bullying them over tariffs, Greenland and other issues, and disparaging the sacrifices their soldiers made alongside U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Now he’s demanding — not just requesting — that they send warships to help the U.S. unblock the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes — essentially mop up behind the conflagration that he and Israel ignited in the Middle East.

The reply has been a “global raspberry.”

That’s how a veteran French defense analyst, François Heisbourg, described allied responses.

No close ally has come forward with immediate help. Britain is flat-out refusing to be drawn into the war. France says the fighting would have to die down first. Others are non-committal. China, which is not an ally but was also asked to help, is ignoring Trump’s call.

“This is not Europe’s war. We didn’t start the war. We were not consulted,” European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said Tuesday.

Trump’s frustration with the ‘Rolls-Royce of allies’

Trump has singled out the refusal from the United Kingdom. Prime Minister Keir Starmer cultivated ties with Trump and reached an early trade deal with the administration, but is now among allies who refuse to join a regional war with no clear endgame.

The U.K. “was sort of considered the Rolls-Royce of allies,” Trump said Monday, adding that he’d asked for British minesweeping ships.

“I was not happy with the U.K,” Trump said. “They should be involved enthusiastically. We’ve been protecting these countries for years.”

Starmer said Britain “will not be drawn into the wider war” and that British troops require the backing of international law and “a proper thought-through plan” — suggesting those were not in place.

He initially refused to let U.S. bombers attack Iran from British bases before accepting their use for strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, said allies are “looking at the United States in a way that they never have before. And this is bad for the United States.”

Having previously appeased Trump, some European leaders are “starting to realize that there’s no benefit or value in using flattery,” he said.

European leaders say it’s not their war

Going to war without consulting allies was in keeping with Trump’s America-first outlook.

“My attitude is: We don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world,” he said Monday.

But failing to get an international mandate, as the U.S. did before intervening in the 1990 Gulf War, is boomeranging.

“It is not our war; we did not start it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. “We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict. Sending more warships to the region will certainly not contribute to that.”

French President Emmanuel Macron envisions possible naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz — but only once fighting has died down.

“France didn’t choose this war. We’re not taking part,” he said.

After bruising tariff battles with Trump last year, the first months of 2026 have further strained alliances. Trump’s renewed pressure for U.S. control of Greenland, including a tariff threat against eight European nations, and his false assertion that allied troops avoided front-line fighting in the Afghanistan War, upset partners in the NATO military alliance.

“Allies, or at least the Europeans, aren’t willing to be at the beck and call of a demand from Donald Trump,” said Sylvie Bermann, a French former ambassador to China, the U.K. and Russia.

“And even in asking for a helping hand, he is doing so in a brutal manner, saying: ‘You’re useless, we’re the strongest, we don’t need you, but come,’” she said.

A dangerous mission

Retired naval officers say that unblocking the Strait of Hormuz with military escorts while the war rages and without Iran’s consent would be dangerous.

France, which has rushed its Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean, is working with other countries to prepare such a mission once the air war has subsided. French military spokesman Col. Guillaume Vernet said any escorting would be conditional on talks with Iran, and Macron has publicized two calls in eight days with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

That has won points with Trump.

“On a scale of zero to 10, I’d say he’s been an eight,” Trump said Monday. “Not perfect, but it’s France. We don’t expect perfect.”

But he’s fuming at other allies.

“We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need,” Trump said Tuesday.

Trump has leverage, including in Ukraine

Allies in Europe and Asia need oil, gas and other products from the Middle East to flow again. That gives Trump some leverage.

Allies also know from experience that resisting Trump carries risks of retaliation.

“It really could be anything. Are the Europeans prepared for that?” asked Ed Arnold, a former British army officer and now a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think tank.

European allies need Trump’s continued blessing for U.S. weaponry, intelligence, and other support for Ukraine, as well as financial pressure on Russia. The U.S. has started to chip away at some sanctions on Moscow by temporarily allowing shipments of Russian oil to ease shortages stemming from the Iran war. Allies also want him to reengage in talks to end the war.

“That was what kept European leaders quiet for a lot of last year in the face of the rhetoric and actions,” said Amanda Sloat, a former U.S. national security adviser who now teaches at Spain’s IE University.

“It is also the thing that is making them a little bit nervous now.”

Leicester and Burrows write for the Associated Press. Burrows reported from London. AP journalists Jill Lawless in London, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Suman Naishadham in Madrid, Geir Moulson and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, Simina Mistreanu in Taipei, Taiwan, and Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.

As United States President Donald Trump tries to build a coalition of navies willing to open the Strait of Hormuz, some countries are negotiating safe passage directly with Iran, underscoring a new de facto reality, analysts say: Regardless of military results, Tehran is calling the shots on who gets to use the world’s most important energy waterway.

After US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 and killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian military leadership responded by focusing on its most potent form of leverage – Iran’s geography. The country controls the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global crude oil and natural gas supplies pass. It is 33km (20 miles) wide at its narrowest point, so any naval force that wants to cross it becomes easy prey for Iranian attacks coming from the mainland.

Considering insurance companies’ low appetite for risk, it took relatively few attacks on vessels in the strait – or just the threat of them – to undermine market confidence and send insurance premiums shooting up, causing a near paralysis in maritime traffic. About 20 vessels have been attacked since the start of the war.

“Iran has effectively proven that it dictates the terms of passage through the strait. They have now shown they are the gatekeeper of this important chokepoint. This will elevate the status of Iran in the geography of the Gulf,” said Andreas Krieg, an associate professor in Security Studies at King’s College London and a fellow at King’s Institute of Middle Eastern Studies. This will be the new reality for the foreseeable future, he added.

Meanwhile, crude prices have risen above $100 a barrel, more than 20 percent higher than pre-war prices, forcing countries to make the biggest releases of emergency reserves in history. Gas prices have risen by more than 40 percent since the war began.

Trump initially floated the idea of ordering the US Navy to escort vessels through the waterway. He then appealed to some countries to send warships and warned NATO members they would face “a very bad” future if these allies failed to help in opening the strait. But the appeal was either turned down or received noncommittal responses. Japan said it had no plans to deploy naval vessels. Australia ruled out sending ships. The United Kingdom said it would not be drawn into the wider war. Germany sent a clear message: “This is not our war”.

Others decided to take action – but not of the kind that Trump asked for. On Saturday, two India-flagged gas tankers passed through the strait after days of negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, including a phone call between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ships from Pakistan, Turkiye and China also have transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The Financial Times has reported that Italy and France have also reached out to Iran for deals although Italian authorities have rejected making such an overture.

Meanwhile, Windward, a maritime intelligence tracking group, said that while traffic in the strait on Tuesday remained 97 percent below average, a growing number of ships have been passing through Iran’s territorial waters, suggesting that Tehran is allowing “permission-based transit”.

‘It is up to us to decide’

There is a precedent for US naval forces to escort convoys through the strait dating back to the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. But today’s scenario is different, experts said. Back then, the US, while it was backing Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, was not a direct party to the conflict. Iran was still in a post-revolutionary process of consolidating power, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was nowhere near as organised as it is today.

Today, Iran has drones that its factories are capable of producing on a large scale and has been using them. Iranian forces could also use small boats to assault tankers, deploy mines and engage in other guerrilla-style tactics. While there are conflicting reports on whether Iran has placed mines in the strait, experts said it would be a counterproductive move for Tehran because it would disrupt the passage for any ships – Iranian vessels included – and it would take away from Tehran the power to choose who may pass.

Iranian officials are aware of their geographic advantage. “This is up to our military to decide,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday, referring to who will be allowed to use the strait.

Pro-government figures increasingly frame the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining tool beyond the war itself, suggesting the waterway could be used to extract compensation, sanctions relief or broader economic concessions after the war, Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, commented on X.

Recent attacks seem to suggest that Iran wants to increase its pressure on the energy market.

On Tuesday, a drone attack caused a fire at the port of Fujairah, the United Arab Emirates’s only crude export terminal. It is located outside the eastern entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing its exports to circumvent it. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen could also further squeeze oil prices by disrupting the Bab al-Mandeb strait. That would force the US to operate across multiple maritime theatres. So far, the Houthis have not carried out such attacks, but this month, they said they were ready to strike at any ‌moment.

Still, the US is focused on applying maximum pressure on Tehran and forcing it to open the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command, the US military’s combat command responsible for operations in the Middle East, said early on Wednesday that its forces had used 2,270kg (5,000lb) bunker-busting munitions against antiship missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has also ordered amphibious ships carrying thousands of US Marines to move to the Middle East, and some experts believe the US might try to seize Kharg Island, a tiny piece of land in the northern Gulf where 90 percent of Iranian crude oil is exported from. The US has already bombed what it said were military sites on the island.

Such an operation, however, might do little to force Iran into opening the Strait of Hormuz, Krieg said. The island is 500km 310 miles) from the strait, and should the US take control of it, it would expose US Marines to Iranian fire. Should Iran see its key terminal being seized, it could also opt to mine the strait outright, having fewer reasons to allow some vessels to pass through.

“The issue with the Strait of Hormuz is really not a military one. … It’s a market issue, and confidence cannot be restored by the military. Confidence can be restored through diplomacy only,” Krieg said.

A day after several allies rejected his demand they send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said he no longer wants their help. In a post on his Truth Social platform, the U.S. leader excoriated the NATO alliance and other countries for not coming to America’s aid when needed.

Trump’s comments come as the global economy is roiled by rising energy costs in the wake of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz for most ships and attacking fuel infrastructure across the Middle East. Trump wanted international help in forcing Iran to reopen the Strait.

“…I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street,” Trump fumed. “We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need.”

“Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again!,” Trump added. “Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

As we noted yesterday, the U.K., Germany, Luxembourg, Japan and Australia rejected Trump’s demand while other countries were on the fence. In a post on X, Axios reported that the U.K. has drafted a plan for a Strait of Hormuz coalition and shared it with the U.S. and several other countries.

Highlighting the threat posed by Iran, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center reported that an oil tanker was hit by debris from an interception near the ship, located 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah, UAE. The vessel received minor structural damage and the whole crew was confirmed safe. A maritime industry official told The War Zone that the ship was the Kuwaiti-registered Gas Al Ahmadiah.

Despite increased concerns, this was the first incident involving a ship in the area since March 11, according to UKMTO.

Since the start of Epic Fury, UKMTO has received 21 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There have been 17 attacks and four suspicious activity reports.

Members of the NATO alliance are denying U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that they send warships to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after frequent Iranian attacks. As we noted yesterday, the president said that “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

Germany on Monday outright rejected the demand.

“This is not our war; we did not start it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin on Monday. “We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict, but sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul doesn’t see NATO playing a role in dealing with the blockade of the Strait.

“I don’t see that NATO has made any decision in this direction or could assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz,” he said Monday ahead of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels. “If that were the case, then the NATO bodies would address it accordingly.”

Wadephul added that despite the volatile situation in the Middle East, Ukraine remained Europe’s top security priority, the BBC noted. When the prices for oil and gas rise, he explained, it contributes to Russia’s war chest.

Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel offered a blunter response to Trump’s demand.

“Blackmail is not what I wish for,” he stated, adding that NATO is there to react when members are attacked, not for all defensive or military requests, Bloomberg News noted.

“I want to remind that none of us has been directly attacked,” he said. “There are no grounds for now to invoke Article 5,” he added, referencing the alliance’s collective defense clause.

Germany and Luxembourg joined Japan and Australia in rejecting Trump’s call for help in reopening the Strait, at least for now.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said while the Strait must be reopened, it is not up to the alliance to do so.

“Let me be clear, that won’t be, and it’s never envisioned to be, a NATO mission,” he said, adding that Britain will not be “drawn into the wider war.”

Britain “is working with allies on a ​collective plan to reopen ‌the Strait of Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation in ​the Middle East ​but it will not be ⁠easy, ” Starmer posited, according to Reuters.

“Ultimately, ​we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability ​in the (oil) market. That ​is not a simple task,” Starmer ‌told ⁠reporters.

Britain and Germany, after Australia, become the latest allies not jumping to send warships to protect the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump wants. https://t.co/wxDkAnoIa4

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 16, 2026

Some nations are willing to listen to any plan Trump might present to NATO.

“We have to look into it and consider it,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Bloomberg TV in an interview in Brussels. “I would look for an in-depth debate within NATO.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski concurred.

“If there is a request with NATO to discuss the issue, we will of course consider it out of respect and sympathy for our allies,” he said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas encouraged member states to consider expanding their Aspides naval mission, originally launched in 2024 while Houthis attacked shipping in the nearby Red Sea.

“If we want to have security in this region, it would be easiest to already use the operation we have in the region and maybe change a bit,” Kallas said.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts the global economy and helps Russia fund its war.

It is affecting our partners in the region and is dangerous for global energy supplies.

Today, EU Foreign Ministers will discuss how to better protect shipping in the region, including… pic.twitter.com/iJSVdT7FqA

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) March 16, 2026

While the Aspides vessels are currently allowed to navigate in the Strait of Hormuz, its mandate doesn’t allow more than that,” Bloomberg News posited, adding that EU countries would have to unanimously agree to change those directives, which could be difficult.

“There is no change to Aspides mission or posture,” Lt Colonel Socrates Ravanos, an Aspides spokesman, told us on Monday. “EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to carry out its mandate, ensuring the protection and security of commercial maritime traffic within its area of operations.”

The operation’s “assets in the area of operation monitor the situation closely and remain vigilant,” he continued. “Maritime security developments in the region are continuously assessed in coordination with partners and relevant maritime authorities.”

Concern over Iranian attacks in the Strait date back many decades. Back in 2012, The Washington Institute estimated that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class (mine counter measure) MCM vessels.


The Washington Institute estimated years ago that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class MCM vessels.⁰
The Navy has three MCM-equipped LCS in the region. https://t.co/vFTRppfdwL

— Hunterbrook (@hntrbrkmedia) March 13, 2026

As we previously reported, however, the last four of those decommissioned vessels left Bahrain in January aboard a larger heavy lift vessel.

The Navy has three MCM-equipped Littoral Combat Ships in the region, Hunterbrook noted. As we reported yesterday, two Independence class Littoral Combat Ships configured for mine-sweeping duties that were previously deployed to the Middle East showed up in port in Malaysia. Both the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara had arrived in Bahrain in the past year or so to take the place of a group of now-decommissioned Avenger class mine hunters. You can read more about that in our story here.

In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday reiterated that the administration is forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up and do more to open the Strait of Hormuz, and our NATO allies especially need to step up,” she told Fox News. “President Trump has been very frank with our friends in NATO for a very long time… now he’s calling on them to do the right thing.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on the administration forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz: “The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up… pic.twitter.com/SgxvPSExab

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) March 16, 2026

In his latest update on Epic Fury, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Monday said attacks are “zeroed in on dismantling Iran’s decades old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, through a combination of air, land and maritime capabilities. We have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren’t done.”

Iranian attacks on shipping seem to have tapered off.

Between the start of Epic Fury on Feb. 28 and March 12, The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office received 20 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There were 16 attacks on ships, and four reports of suspicious activity. There have been no verified reports of attacks since March 12, according to UKMTO.

Amid the debate on how to protect Strait shipping, the first non-Iranian ship has transited the Strait with its AIS transponder on, according to the MarineTraffic open-source tracking site. Several observers have noted how close to the Iranian shore these ships are traveling. This could be due to Iranian mines, even though Trump on Monday repeated the assertion that Epic Fury attacks have destroyed all Iran’s mine-laying ships. Mines can be laid by small boats and Iran has practices doing exactly this in the past. This could also just be a safe deconfliction corridor Iran is using for safe passage.

The U.S. is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships getting through the Strait of Hormuz for now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.

The closure of the Strait has forced several nations to alter their energy policies. Japan started the largest-ever release of oil from its strategic reserves on Monday, according to the Japan Times. The 80 million-barrel effort comes as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and crude oil prices continue to soar.

“The release — 15 days’ worth of domestic demand from mandatory private reserves and one month from national reserves — was the seventh ever conducted in the nation,” the publication noted.

BREAKING Japan says it is beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.

Japan depends on the Middle East for 95% of its oil imports pic.twitter.com/XLqWOFJSl6

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 16, 2026

South Korea is also taking action in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz closure. It is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG, explains Bloomberg energies and commodities columnist Javier Blas in a post on X.

South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG

The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation that Europe didn’t have in 2022

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 16, 2026

Beyond attacking shipping in the Strait, Iran is continuing strikes across the region.

The UAE says it is defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Video emerged from the scene of another Iranian attack on the UAE’s Fujairah Port facility, showing thick plumes wafting into the sky.

נמל אלפוג’יירה באיחוד האמירויות עולה באש לאחר שהותקף בידי כטב”ם איראני pic.twitter.com/A1mgsohK1o

— איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) March 16, 2026

An Indian-flagged crude tanker had a close call when the UAE’s Fujairah port came under attack on Saturday while it was loading crude at the oil terminal, according to the Times of India. The vessel sailed out safely the next day with everyone onboard unhurt.

JAG LAADKI an Indian flagged Crude Oil Tanker is being escorted out of the Gulf of Oman by the Indian Navy as maritime security in the region remains tense pic.twitter.com/0YdR06QxDJ

— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) March 16, 2026

Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on X, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.

(Reuters) – Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Indian authorities…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 16, 2026

In a brief chat with PBS News, Trump repeated his stance, since denied by Tehran, that Iran wants to negotiate.

“We’re doing very well,” he told the outlet, reiterating comments about destroying Iran’s military. He added: “They want to make a deal but they’re not ready to make a deal in my opinion.”

Just had a brief phone call with @potus this morning and asked him several questions about Iran. He noted when he answered that it was not a good time to chat because he was in the middle of a “very important meeting” about it – but said the following:

— Liz Landers (@ElizLanders) March 16, 2026

In addition to frequent conversations with Israeli leaders, Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

“According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake, according to The New York Times.

Just as the war is poised to escalate this leak could be adding fuel to fire. According to @nytimes “Mr. Trump is talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the…

— Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr) March 16, 2026

Axios reported that “some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time” before an attack on Iran.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,’” the source told the outlet. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.”

A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,'” the source said. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.” https://t.co/lJWB1SyOhM

— Axios (@axios) March 16, 2026

The America class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is continuing to speed toward the Middle East after the Pentagon ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to bolster forces in the region. 

The vessel, along with two Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts, was last seen about 420 miles from Manilla, pushing deep into the South China Sea, according to open-source investigator MT Anderson.

“Running an aviation-optimized amphibious assault ship at high speed with a dedicated twin-destroyer escort is a heavily protected, offensive posture,” Anderson assessed. “They are moving with purpose, bringing a major Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) umbrella with them as they sprint toward the theater.”

HIGH-SPEED TRANSIT: USS Tripoli Flanked by Heavy Escorts

OSINT Update (Mar 15 imagery): Tracking the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) as she continues her rapid push toward the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. She is not making this run alone.

The Fix: Spotted ~678 km from Manila,… pic.twitter.com/Zy8ddlp4lW

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) March 16, 2026

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday it had begun a “targeted ground operation against key targets” in southern Lebanon, pushing more forces deeper into the area as part of an expanded buffer zone, The Times of Israel reported. The move came after Hezbollah began attacking Israel earlier this month amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation would continue until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat to the residents of northern Israel, and said displaced Lebanese would not return to their homes until then.

IDF’s 401st Brigade troops of the 91st Division carry out precision raids in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/eYwjr2jwXG

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026

Hezbollah reportedly used its Almas missiles for the first time in this conflict. You can read more about these weapons in our story here.

#Lebanon: Hezbollah has used its first Almas missile amid ongoing conflict with Israel.

While Hezbollah primarily uses anti-tank missiles such as the Konkurs and Kornet, the Iranian-made Almas (a copy of the Israeli Spike) offers more advanced capabilities.

As seen in the… https://t.co/kIpei0jLc8 pic.twitter.com/EmW2P1aSVe

— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) March 16, 2026

The IDF also said it attacked an Iranian space-related compound that researcher Fabian Hinz said was used to conduct research on exoatmospheric guidance.

The Iranians were conducting a lot of research and development work on exoatmospheric guidance technologies as part of their missile and SLV programs. Would not be surprised if they were eventually aiming to develop direct-ascent anti-satellite capabilities as well. https://t.co/sugj1KrDPq

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) March 16, 2026

China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy, Al Jazeera reported on X.

BREAKING: China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy. pic.twitter.com/rWyDn2DxgV

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 16, 2026

Online flight trackers say a Qatari Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week, following a similar flight the week before.

The nature of these flights is unclear. However, with Rzeszów serving as the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, it is possible the flights may have been delivering air defense interceptors originally intended for Ukraine or transporting Ukrainian counter drone specialists. We just don’t know.

A Qatar Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week.

A UAE Air Force C-17A also carried out a similar flight to the same destination last week.

Rzeszów is the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, so the… pic.twitter.com/o5JjxEulpc

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 15, 2026

The flow of videos out of Iran, already greatly reduced because of the regime’s internet blockage, has slowed even further.

“There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours. I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access,” BBC journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh noted on X.

There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours.

I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access. https://t.co/KOCGBS5fXr

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 16, 2026

Still, some videos are making it out, like this one purporting to show Iranian Basij paramilitary forces hiding in a school.

Basij forces and government security agents had gathered inside a school, a citizen who sent a video to Iran International said. pic.twitter.com/RkEjEtMCMK

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 16, 2026

UPDATES:

We have concluded our rolling coverage for the day.

UPDATE: 5:48 PM EST –

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi pushed back on claims that he has established backchannel communications with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

My last contact with Mr. Witkoff was prior to his employer’s decision to kill diplomacy with another illegal military attack on Iran.

Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and the public.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

With speculation rife that is he is badly wounded or perhaps even dead, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will reportedly give a television speech in the coming days. Khamenie, who Iranian officials have admitted was wounded in an airstrike, has not been seen in public since.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry Advisor tells Lebanese Al-Jadeed that the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will deliver a televised speech “in the coming days.”

The advisor stated that Khamenei is in direct contact with military and political leaders, “and the reason for his…

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 16, 2026

Speaking to reporters at The White House, Trump extolled the virtues of the B-2A Spirit stealth bomber.

“Let me hug that little sucker,” he said while asking an aide to hand him a model of the aircraft the president keeps in the Oval Office.

UPDATE: 5:24 PM EST –

MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, home of the command running the war in Iran, is reopening its main gate after a bomb scare earlier today, a spokesman for the 6th Air Refueling Wing, the base host unit, confirmed to The War Zone.

“The incident has been terminated and we are ready to open the main gate and visitor center,” the spokesman told us. The base, however, was not on lockdown.

MacDill is home to CENTCOM, U.S. Special Operations Command as well as the 6th Air Refueling Wing (6th ARW) and the 927th Air Refueling Wing and dozens of other mission partners. Last week, three airmen assigned to the 6th ARW were among six killed in a crash of a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker.

Today’s situation unfolded this afternoon when a suspicious package was found at the Visitors Center near the Dale Mabry entrance gate, according to the FBI. The bureau sent its Special Agent Bomb Techs to the scene, who worked it along with Tampa Police, the FBI said in a post on X.

UPDATE: 4:23 PM EST –

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump seemed surprised that Iran would actually attack its neighbors if it came under fire.

The president was responding to a question about whether he was briefed about possible Iranian strikes on nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Trump on Iran:

I heard they were sending missiles to the UAE. I said, “That’s strange, you know? The UAE is like the banker for Iran.” They’re sort of the banker. Qatar, their neighbors — they got along okay.

Then suddenly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait — Kuwait is getting hit. Bahrain… pic.twitter.com/KVVvX1sKMw

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

🇮🇷📲🇺🇸A direct communications channel between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi & U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official & a source with knowledge. Read the story by @MarcACaputo & me on @Axios https://t.co/izoFpwZV5m

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 16, 2026

Araghchi lashed out at comments made by U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth that America would show “no quarter” in Epic Fury.

“When the U.S. Secretary of War declares ‘no quarter.’ he doesn’t project strength,” Araghchi stated on X. “He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.”

When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn’t project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

The IDF Chief of the General Staff approved plans to continue operations in the Northern Command.

“The impact of the strike and the weakening of the radical regime in Iran is also felt in the campaign against Hezbollah,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. “To date, the Northern Command has eliminated more than 400 Hezbollah terrorists.”

הרמטכ״ל באישור תוכניות להמשך בפיקוד הצפון: ״ההדף של הפגיעה והחלשת המשטר הרדיקאלי באיראן מורגש גם במערכה מול חיזבאללה; עד כה פיקוד צפון חיסל למעלה מ-400 מחבלי חיזבאללה״

״אנו נערכים להמשך ומתגברים את פיקוד הצפון בכוחות נוספים על מנת להרחיב את הפעולה הצבאית, להעמיק את הפגיעה… pic.twitter.com/HrBMLk9LFf

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) March 16, 2026

UPDATE 3:50 PM EST –

CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed to The War Zone that more than 200 troops have been wounded or injured across seven countries since the start of Epic Fury. The injuries took place in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and more than 180 troops have already returned to duty,” he explained, adding that 10 troops were seriously injured.

In addition to the wounded, seven U.S. troops have been killed in Iranian attacks, the most serious being March 1 when six Army soldiers were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait. Another six Air Force airmen died when their KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq, reportedly after colliding with another KC-135.

The Washington Post was first to report the latest casualty figures.

U.S. troops have been wounded or injured in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

More here:https://t.co/IRmwkfwWsN

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 16, 2026

CENTCOM released its latest Epic Fury update, saying it struck more than 7,000 targets, flew more than 6,500 combat sorties and damaged or destroyed more than 100 Iranian ships.

Baghdad continues to be hit.

In what looks like a scene from a video game, a counter rocket, artillery, and mortar C-RAM system is seen engaging with a drone over Baghdad.

C-Ram successful interception of a drone/rocket launched by Iranian-backed militias in Baghdad this evening. The Target was the U.S embassy. pic.twitter.com/EuHGx705gR

— Steven Nabil (@thestevennabil) March 16, 2026

Footage of a reported coalition interception of an Iranian drone can be seen in the following video.

Not all the interceptions apparently worked. A drone reportedly slammed into the Royal Tulip al-Rasheed hotel in the Iraqi capital.

The Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Sunday that it temporarily transferred its special forces from Iraq due to worsening safety and failure to conduct missions securely.“The Special Operations Task Group was relocated to safe areas because the security situation prevented it from continuing training operations with Iraqi forces,” according to the ministry.

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption, according to Kpler.

Hormuz GPS disruption continues

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption. This interference is triggering false AIS positioning,… pic.twitter.com/VXiaxHwFat

— Kpler (@Kpler) March 16, 2026

Wild video was posted on X of an Israeli interception of an Iranian ballistic missile. No injuries were reported, according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel “Mannie” Fabian.

No injuries are reported in Iran’s latest ballistic missile salvo on Israel, the sixth since midnight, and the first in some six hours.

A small number of missiles were launched, which were likely intercepted, according to initial military assessments.

Sirens had sounded across… https://t.co/9JaXEDgJJm pic.twitter.com/5t2YXuw7AQ

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

UPDATE: 2:42 PM EST –

The war with Iran is expected to last at least another month, according to Israel media, citing a senior Israeli official.

“Israel is reportedly preparing for an extended phase of fighting as it seeks to further weaken the Iranian regime and capitalize on what it views as signs of internal instability within the country’s leadership,” The Times of Israel reported. “According to the source, U.S. President Donald Trump supports Israel in continuing the campaign.”

We reached out to the White House for comment.

❗️ Senior Israeli source: Iran war will continue for longer than expected; we’re preparing to fight for another month at least; Trump is on board.

via N12 News https://t.co/gkDAbmaod1

— Israel Radar (@IsraelRadar_com) March 16, 2026

NATO responded to our query about debate over sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz.

“Allies have already stepped up to provide additional security in the Mediterranean,” a NATO official told us. “We are aware that individual Allies are talking with the US and others on what more they might do, including in the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz.”

In the first 96 hours of Epic Fury, the US-led coalition “expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types,” according to a new report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).

“This carries a munitions-only replacement bill of $10–$16 billion in four days,” FPRI posited. “This represents a significant industrial burden for replacing some munitions that cannot be replenished in 4 days, 4 weeks, or even 4 months. Worse, those estimates do not include combat losses of warfighting assets or damage to bases and the high-end air defense enabling architecture.”

We have an important new analysis of munitions used in the first 96 hours of the war with Iran out at the @FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute).

In the first 96 hours, the US-led coalition expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types. This carries a munitions-only…

— Morgan Bazilian (@MBazilian) March 16, 2026

Video has emerged showing intense flames at Dubai International Airport’s fuel storage area after an Iranian attack.

CENTCOM posted additional video of its attacks on Iranian targets.

Thousands of Iranian military targets have been struck by U.S. forces to neutralize threats posed by the Iranian regime now and into the future. pic.twitter.com/dE4VNxjjW1

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 16, 2026

MT Anderson provided an update on the location of the Tripoli. The ship was spotted on AIS North of the Riau Archipelago, transiting the southern South China Sea at 18 knots.

The Iraqi armed faction Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its spokesperson, known as Abu Ali al-Askari. He was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike after a wave of attacks against U.S. facilities in Iraq.

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
بكل فخر ورضا بقضاء الله وقدره، نزف لكم نبأ استشهاد الحاج أبو علي العسكري إلى جنات الخلد.
  ذلك الصوت الشجاع الذي لم يخرس أمام الظلم، واللسان الصادق الذي زرع في نفوس المجاهدين معاني الإباء والصمود.
  لقد كان الشهيد شريان التواصل بين ميادين التضحية ومنصات…

— صابرين نيوز – Sabereen news (@sabreenS11) March 16, 2026

Six people were injured in a Hezbollah rocket attack in Nahariya, according to medics. The town is located about eight miles south of the Lebanese border.

Six people are injured in a Hezbollah rocket strike on a home in Nahariya, medics say.

Magen David Adom says it treated two adults and four minors with signs of smoke inhalation. They are all listed in good condition.

The IDF says the impact was caused by a rocket launched from… pic.twitter.com/IeKGd0amAB

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry (MFA) condemned the latest Israeli incursion into Lebanon.

“The Netanyahu government’s collective punishment and genocidal policies in Lebanon will lead to a new humanitarian catastrophe in the region,” the MFA said in a statement on Monday. “We reaffirm our solidarity with Lebanon amid these attacks, which violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

UPDATE: 1:50 PM EST –

Speaking at a board meeting of the Trump Kennedy Center, the president claimed he predicted that Iran would attack shipping in the Strait.

NOW – Trump says he predicted Iran would weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, adding, “I predicted all of it. I predicted Osama bin Laden would knock out the World Trade Center. I made that prediction a year before he did it.” pic.twitter.com/6VqkvzamW0

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026

The president added that he does not know Iran mined the Strait.

He also said the U.S. has hit 7,000 targets since launching Epic Fury.

Trump on Iran:

Since the beginning of the conflict, we struck more than 7,000 targets across Iran; these have been mostly military and commercial targets. pic.twitter.com/ppiyztSRDj

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

France has reportedly boosted its deployment of Rafale fighters to Jordan and UAE to 24, more than double the usual 10, according to French defense observer Tom Antonov. The jets have already intercepted dozens of Iranian drones, he added in a post on X.

The MQ-9 Reaper drones have played a big role in the war, and have been heavily targeted by Iran. To date, the U.S. has lost about a dozen Reapers, including one accidentally shot down by an ally, according to The Wall Street Journal.

NATO is considering boosting its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter

“The military alliance already deployed a battery in eastern Turkey to protect an early-warning radar used to track missiles across the Middle East,” the outlet stated. “It’s now considering sending another Patriot missile-defense system to bolster an airbase where American troops are stationed.”

NATO is looking into reinforcing further its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/eQzealf1qp

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

WASHINGTON — President Trump expressed frustration Monday that U.S. allies were not enthusiastic about sending warships to protect merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a sign of Washington’s growing isolation as it tries to stabilize one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes amid its war against Iran.

Trump declined to name the “numerous countries” he said had agreed to help reopen the oil route, which has come under the threat of retaliation from Iran, but was annoyed that most longtime allies were hesitant about joining his international police force. He said they should be “jumping to help us.”

“Some countries that we have helped for many, many years, we’ve protected them from horrible outside sources and they weren’t that enthusiastic — and the level of enthusiasm, it matters to me,” Trump said at the White House.

For Trump, securing allies’ help is as much a domestic economic need as it is international diplomacy. Since the hostilities against Iran began on Feb. 28, Tehran has retaliated by targeting regional oil facilities and at least 20 vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.

The result has been “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” according to the International Energy Agency, and it has led to international oil prices surging more than 30% to over $100 a barrel as the war entered its third week with no clear end in sight.

The diplomatic friction, meanwhile, reflects the limits of Trump’s influence at a moment when the global economy is absorbing one of the worst oil supply shocks in modern history, a dynamic that has prompted Trump to warn that countries refusing to help may find Washington a far less generous partner in turn.

Despite Trump‘s demands, several key allies have publicly rebuffed his calls for support.

French President Emmanuel Macron formally rejected the request, saying that France would maintain a “defensive and protective” posture focused on stability rather than escalation.

German Foreign Minister Boris Pistorius was blunter, saying, “This is not our war; we didn’t start it.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also declined to commit, saying the U.K. “will not be drawn into the wider war.” Italy, Spain, Australia and Japan similarly declined, while South Korea and China have not publicly stated their intentions.

The rejections seems to have only sharpened Trump’s demands. At one point during an event Monday, the president turned to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and said he would share a list of nations that declined to help, suggesting Congress could have a role in any retaliatory measures against reluctant allies.

“Why are we protecting countries that don’t protect us?” Trump said.

Yet Trump also sent conflicting signals about how much allied help he actually needs. At one point he claimed the United States did not require assistance from other countries.

“We don’t need them, but it’s interesting — I am doing it, in some cases, not because we need them, but because I want to see how they react,” Trump said.

On the threat to merchant ships, Trump projected uncertainty. He said the possibility of mines was “enough to keep people” from transiting the waterway, but said that “we don’t even know” if Iran has placed any mines in the strait.

“They may have no mines,” he said. “We hit every one of their mine ships. Every one of them is gone — but it only takes one.”

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump also sent mixed messages about the threats and the need for help. He said the United States was coordinating with roughly seven countries to deploy naval forces to “police the straits — before adding, in the same remarks, that “maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all.”

He suggested American forces should not be there because other nations depend more heavily on oil shipments through the oil route, an about-face that drew criticism from allies, who said it created confusion about Washington’s strategy in a conflict the United States had itself started.

“To keep the strait open, I have a very hard time believing that China and the other countries the president enlisted are really going to be escorting ships through the strait. That just really doesn’t add up to me,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said in an NBC “Meet the Press” interview Sunday.

“The bottom line is, we really don’t know how long this war is going to be,” he added.

Trump, however, is keeping the pressure on allied countries, making the future of the conflict more open-ended depending on their response.

Trump insisted Monday that “numerous countries have told me they are on their way,” but said he would “rather not say” who they are.

He then said the tepid responses from some U.S. allies had reinforced his skepticism about the value of the NATO alliance, echoing comments he made over the weekend when he warned that a failure to assist would be “very bad for the future of NATO” and that the U.S. would “remember” those who did not step up.

When asked if he was confident Macron will help with the reopening of the strait, Trump told reporters: “Yeah, I mean sure. … I think he’s gonna help. I mean I’ll let you know.”

Europe has nonetheless been drawn deeper into the conflict.

The U.K. initially refused to support U.S. military operations, but softened its position after Trump mocked Starmer as “no Winston Churchill” and called Britain a “once great ally.” France also said last week that it was preparing a separate “purely defensive” naval mission to escort commercial vessels through the strait once it was safe to do so.

Moving forward, it is unclear how the European Union and other nations around the world will respond to Trump’s pressure.

“Nobody wants to go actively in this war. And of course, everybody is concerned what will be the outcome,” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, said Monday after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels. “This is not Europe’s war, but Europe’s interests are directly at stake.”

‘For 40 years, we’re protecting you’: US President Donald Trump criticises allies’ reluctance to commit forces to open the key waterway for Gulf oil exports.

United States President Donald Trump has called for a naval coalition to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of world oil shipments transit, as oil markets reel from supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran.

What is essentially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to the attacks by the US and Israel has sent oil prices soaring to more than $100 per barrel.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has promised to keep the maritime artery closed while another top official in Tehran warned that oil prices could shoot up beyond $200 per barrel.

Trump said he hoped a naval coalition could secure the vital waterway, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Iran has struck more than a dozen ships trying to sail through the narrow waterway since the hostilities started two weeks ago.

But will Trump’s solution work?

What has Trump said?

The US president has been facing domestic pressure over starting the war alongside Israel with no endgame or off-ramps in sight.

“On the strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN,” US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote in a post on X. “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it [to] say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open.”

After threatening to bomb Iran more, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to send warships to secure the strait.

Trump claimed “100% of Iran’s military capability” had already been destroyed but added that Tehran could still “send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along, or in, this waterway”.

“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

“In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”

Not long after, Trump returned to the keyboard, extending the invitation to all “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” to send warships, adding that the US would provide “a lot” of support to those who participated.

What has Iran said?

Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, said in a statement that claims by the US about destroying Iran’s navy or providing safe escort for oil tankers were false.

“The Strait of Hormuz has not been militarily blocked and is merely under control,” he said in a statement.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later doubled down on this, saying the strait remained open to international shipping except for vessels belonging to the US and its allies.

“The Strait of Hormuz is open. It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi said.

Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the US-Israeli strikes – suggested in his first statement since taking power that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to provide leverage for Iran during the conflict.

What are the challenges in the Strait of Hormuz?

The strait, which is just 21 nautical miles (39km) wide at its narrowest point, is the only maritime passage into the Arabian Gulf (known as the Persian Gulf in Iran). Shipping lanes in the waterway are even narrower and more vulnerable to attacks.

It separates Iran on one side from Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other.

In brief, there is no way in or out by sea when the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

Alexandru Hudisteanu, a maritime security expert who served 13 years in the Romanian navy, told Al Jazeera that in the type of coalition that Trump is hinting at, “interoperability is the biggest hurdle.”

“That’s the ability of cruises to work together or with different units and different doctrine when basic communication would be an issue,” he said.

Then, there is the geography of the Strait of Hormuz: “a very unforgiving environment to sail with this type of wartime threats”, Hudisteanu said. “Especially difficult under missile threats and these asymmetric potential mines or unmanned systems that could damage or destroy ships.”

Providing escorts to ships would be a costly option, and it would pose risks to participating foreign warships from possible Iranian attacks, which would likely further drag more countries into the ongoing war.

From Iran’s point of view, “the fact that the shoreline is so close and the actual maritime passage is highly congested and confined is an advantage by default,” Hudisteanu added. Geographically, Iran keeps it as a gauntlet, with no way out for the ships unless Tehran allows it.

Another major challenge for any naval coalition trying to secure the passage would be the timeline of any operation.
”The security of the strait could be achieved. It’s just a matter of how much time you need and how many assets you need,” the analyst said. Rushing through it “could have negative implications for the security of the mission and the region”.

How have countries responded?

No country has so far publicly agreed to Trump’s call to send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

London said it is “intensively looking” at what it can do to help reopen the maritime passage. British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: “We are intensively looking with our allies at what can be done because it’s so important that we get the strait reopened.”

Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials said Beijing is calling for hostilities to stop and “all parties have the responsibility to ensure stable and unimpeded energy supply.”

Japan said the threshold is “extremely high” to send its warships on such a mission. “Legally speaking, we do not rule out the possibility, but given the current situation in which this conflict is ongoing, I believe this is something that must be considered with great caution,” said Takayuki Kobayashi, policy chief of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

France also confirmed that it will not send ships. The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Saturday: “Posture has not changed: defensive it is,” in reference to President Emanuel Macron’s assertion that France will not join the war against Iran.

South Korea, which imports 70 percent of its oil from the Gulf, said it was “closely monitoring” Trump’s statements and “comprehensively considering and exploring various measures … to ensure the safety of energy transport routes”.

Are countries negotiating with Iran?

Some countries have been negotiating with Iran to secure passage for their petroleum shipments.

Two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi depends on this passage for 80 percent of its LPG imports.

The war on Iran has caused a critical shortage of cooking gas for India’s 333 million households. New Delhi has long had ties with Iran, but the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not condemned the killing of Ali Khamenei. It has condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries, where millions of Indian citizens work and send $51bn in remittances home every year.

Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad ⁠Fathali, said Tehran had allowed some Indian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in a rare exception to the blockade but did not confirm the number of vessels.

A Turkish-owned vessel was similarly granted permission last week after Ankara negotiated passage directly with Tehran. Fourteen more Turkish vessels are awaiting clearance.

France and Italy also reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials to negotiate a deal to allow their vessels through the strait, but there has been no official confirmation yet.

“Iran is affecting maritime supply,” Hudisteanu said. “It’s affecting the maritime security of the region and the entire ecosystem and bringing the entire world to the table as the global price for oil and gas increases.”

March 15 (UPI) — Israel said it launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran on Sunday as Iran carried out its own attacks on U.S. military sites and against U.S. allies in the Gulf region at large.

The Israeli military said its airstrike hit the Hamedan area of western Iran, hitting multiple military headquarters, The Times of Israel reported. The Israeli military said it plans to expand its attacks on western and central Iran “with the aim of broadly and systematically damaging the regime’s command and control capabilities.”

Israeli officials, meanwhile, said at least five people in the country were injured Sunday by Iranian missiles. Iran’s state-run Mehr news agency reported that the Iranian military has pledged to “pursue and kill” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “with force.”

The United Arab Emirates said it has seen a drop in Iranian attacks within its borders. The defense ministry said it intercepted four ballistic missiles and six drones Sunday.

Since the start of the war, it has faced more than 1,900 attacks by Iran.

Bloomberg reported that a key oil port on the UAE’s east coast — Fujairah — was back in operation Sunday after it was targeted by an Iranian drone Saturday. The port is about 70 nautical miles away from the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed earlier in the month to put pressure on its enemies’ abilities to transport oil. About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait.

Fujairah is situated at one end of a pipeline that allows the UAE to bypass use of the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The site exported an average of more than 1.7 million barrels of crude and refined fuels per day in 2025, about 1.7% of the world’s demand, The Guardian reported.

Officials said they intercepted a drone attack near the site, causing a fire there briefly.

British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said his country was examining ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and keep oil flowing. In an appearance on Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Miliband said Britain was in talks with allies.

“There’s different ways in which we can make maritime shipping possible. We are intensively looking with our allies at what can be done, because it’s so important that we get the strait reopened.”

Hundreds of tankers sit idle on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran has effectively closed the waterway, pushing oil prices above $100 – the highest since 2022, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Oil tanker traffic in the strait, through which one-fifth of global oil passes, has plunged after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Tehran on February 28. Asian countries, including India, China and Japan, as well as some European countries, source large portions of their energy needs from the Gulf. A disruption in supply will rattle the global economy.

With an aim to cushion from the shock, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency’s history. But it has failed to push the prices down.

The agency had released about 182 million barrels after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to stablise the oil prices.

According to the agency, oil shipments through the strategic waterway have fallen to less than 10 percent of pre-war levels, threatening one of the most critical arteries in the global energy system.

IEA members collectively hold about 1.25 billion barrels in government-controlled emergency reserves, alongside roughly 600 million barrels in industry stocks tied to government obligations.

A large number in a massive market

The figure may appear vast, but it shrinks quickly against the scale of global energy demand.

“This feels like a small bandage on a large wound,” energy strategist Naif Aldandeni said, describing the world’s largest coordinated emergency oil release as governments scramble to steady markets shaken by war.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates world consumption of petroleum and other liquids will average 105.17 million barrels per day in 2026. At that rate, 400 million barrels would theoretically cover just four days of global consumption.

Even when compared with normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – around 20 million barrels per day – the released oil equals only about 20 days of typical flows.

Aldandeni told Al Jazeera that emergency reserves can calm panic in markets but cannot replace the lost function of a disrupted shipping corridor.

“The release may soften the shock and calm nerves temporarily,” he said, “but it will remain limited as long as the fundamental problem — the freedom of supply and tanker movement through Hormuz – remains unresolved.”

Oil prices reflect those anxieties. Brent crude ended trading on Friday at $103.14 per barrel, after surging to nearly $120 earlier as fears of disrupted production and shipping intensified.

Geopolitical risk premium

Oil expert Nabil al-Marsoumi said the price surge cannot be explained by supply fundamentals alone.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz added roughly $40 per barrel as a geopolitical risk premium above what market fundamentals would normally dictate,” he told Al Jazeera.

From that perspective, releasing strategic reserves serves primarily as a temporary tool to dampen that premium rather than fundamentally rebalance the market.

Prices above $100 per barrel are uncomfortable for major consuming economies already struggling to curb inflation and protect economic growth.

Recent EIA projections suggest global demand has not yet declined significantly because of the war, remaining close to 105 million barrels per day. The market pressure, therefore, stems less from falling consumption and more from fears of supply shortages and delays in deliveries to refineries and consumers.

Threats to oil infrastructure

The latest escalation could deepen those fears.

United States President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island”.

He added that “for reasons of decency” he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island”, but warned Washington could reconsider that restraint if Iran continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

CENTCOM confirmed the operation, stating US forces had struck “more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure”.

Iranian officials have meanwhile warned they would target energy facilities linked to the US across the region if Iranian oil infrastructure comes under direct attack.

Kharg Island is not simply a military location. It serves as the primary export terminal for Iranian crude, making it a critical node in the country’s oil supply network.

If attacks move from obstructing shipping to targeting export infrastructure itself, the crisis could shift from a chokepoint disruption scenario to one involving direct losses of production and export capacity.

In such circumstances, the oil released from emergency reserves would act only as a temporary bridge rather than a lasting solution to lost supply.

Major oil companies such as QatarEnergy, the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Bahrain state oil company Bapco have shut production and declared force majeure, while Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, and UAE state oil company ADNOC have shut down their refineries.

Limits of emergency reserves

Even under a less severe scenario – where maritime disruption persists but infrastructure remains intact — the ability of strategic reserves to stabilise markets remains constrained by logistics.

The US Department of Energy said the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 415.4 million barrels as of 18 February 2026. Its maximum drawdown capacity is 4.4 million barrels per day, and oil requires about 13 days to reach US markets after a presidential release order.

That means even the world’s largest emergency stockpile cannot flood the market with crude immediately. The release must move through pipelines, shipping networks and refining capacity before reaching consumers.

Aldandeni said the current intervention would likely produce only a temporary stabilising effect, while al-Marsoumi warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz – or the spread of threats to other chokepoints such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea could quickly send prices further higher.

US President Donald Trump says allies who rely on Gulf oil must help keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

March 14 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Saturday said that a coalition of nations affected by Iran choking off the Strait of Hormuz will send warships to open it back up.

Trump said that although the United States and Israel have “destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability” in its war in Iran, its attempt to close the strait — by attacking ships and possibly laying mines along the shipping route — is affecting global trade.

Iran started to limit traffic in the strait since the war started two weeks ago and on Thursday, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojaba Khamenei, said it would remain closed as a tactic to pressure the United States and Israel to end their attacks on the country.

The Strait of Hormuz is a significant global trading route, and sees roughly 20% of the global oil and fuel supply pass through it every day.

“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, Axios and The Guardian reported.

“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated,” Trump said.

On Friday, several news organizations confirmed with the Department of Defense that the USS Tripoli, an amphibious assault ship that was operating in the Philippine Sea, is headed to the Middle East.

The Tripoli brings with it 2,500 Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Group, along with 2,500 more sailors, after U.S. Central Command requested additional military options for the conflict.

The 31st MEU can conduct ground operations, which the Trump administration has not ruled out in Iran, but Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caines told reporters at a press conference that the Pentagon plans to go after Iran’s mine-laying capability and its ability to attack commercial vessels.

“The US Navy at this point can’t even get anywhere close to the Strait of Hormuz without being attacked.” Experts are pouring cold water on Pete Hegseth’s claims that the US is working effectively to reopen the world’s most crucial shipping lane.

March 13 (UPI) — Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth downplayed the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz during a press briefing Friday and claimed 15,000 Iranian targets have been struck.

Hegseth said the U.S. and Israeli air forces are flying over Iran and Tehran Friday, the 13th day of the operation. He claimed that Iran’s air defenses, navy and munitions supply have been defeated.

Iran’s missile volume was down by 90% and its one-way attack drones were down by 95% on Thursday, Hegseth said.

“Today as we speak we fly over the top of Iran and Tehran,” Hegseth said. “Fighters and bombers, all day picking targets as they choose.”

The defense secretary opened Friday’s briefing at the Pentagon, joined again by Gen. Dan Caine, saying that the United States is “decimating the radical Iranian regime’s military in a way the world has never seen before.”

“We said it would not be a fair fight and it has not been,” he said.

Caine lauded the use of the first precision-strike missiles used in combat by the United States, praising the troops that fired them. One of those soldiers was 20 years old and has only been in the U.S. Army for six months.

Caine’s comments on the precision of U.S. strikes come as the military is investigating a deadly strike on an elementary school for girls in Iran that took place on Feb. 28. The preliminary investigation has found that the United States is likely responsible for the attack that killed more than 170 people, most of them children.

“They’ve done all of this with the precision and determination that comes from relentless training and trust in each other and their weapons systems,” Caine said.

Hegseth said the United States is “dealing with” Iran’s attacks on vessels on the Strait of Hormuz, which has dramatically disrupted the oil trade.

“It’s something we’re dealing with, we have been dealing with it and don’t need to worry about it,” Hegseth said. “We’re on plan to defeat, destroy and disable all of their meaningful military capabilities on a pace the world has never seen before.”

Caine later said that there is some traffic moving through the strait.

As Iran’s military capabilities weaken, Hegseth said, more importantly, it does not possess the capability to build more weapons.

“Soon and very soon all of Iran’s defense companies will be destroyed,” Hegseth. “For example, as of two days ago, all of Iran’s ballistic missile production capacity, every company that builds every component of those missiles, has been functionally defeated, destroyed.”

As for Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Hegseth said he is “likely disfigured.” Khamenei was wounded during the initial strikes by the United States and Israel on Tehran on Feb. 28, which killed his father, former supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

President Donald Trump shared similar speculation about the new supreme leader on Fox News on Friday, saying he believes he is alive but “damaged.”

“I think he probably is,” Trump said. “I think he’s damaged but I think he’s probably alive in some form.”

If you’re looking for the most elegant way to wrap up our “little excursion” in Iran, it’s this: President Trump should follow what might politely be called the “declare victory and head for the airport” strategy.

You know the drill: Announce that we’ve set back Iran’s nuclear programs a decade, pounded their navy into submission, and turned the ayatollah into a fine mist. Mission accomplished! Thank you for flying the friendly skies, and please return your seat backs to their full upright and locked position.

Don’t get me wrong. This “cut and run” routine is less than ideal. Trump will have signaled to the world he (we) can’t endure any insurgent resistance, empowered the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to run the country and likely angered Israel in the process.

But his domestic political base will believe he won, and fan service has always been his top political priority.

Besides, once you’ve entered a war without a coherent justification, clearly defined goals or a credible exit strategy, you’re lucky to get out at all. A salutary outcome no longer exists; that ship has already sailed.

Speaking of which, as I write this, we are drifting toward what feels like a point of no return. Mining the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is now attempting to do, is the ultimate trump card.

Using mines to shut down this narrow shipping lane — which contributes about 20% of the world’s oil supply, not to mention natural gas and fertilizer — could result in a crippled global economy, mass casualties and a situation in which the president can no longer save face while cutting and running.

As retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis writes, “Iran has been planning a Strait of Hormuz closure operation for decades and probably has more than 5,000 mines; just one hit can severely damage a thin-skinned tanker.”

Yes, once laid, minefields can be cleared. But Stavridis predicts it would take “weeks, if not a month or two” to clear thousands of mines. He warns: “The global economy needs to be prepared for a month or two shutdown.” (Complicating matters is the fact that our dedicated minesweepers were recently decommissioned.)

The Iranians are not idiots. They watch American politics. They understand that Trump’s pressure point isn’t Tehran — it’s the S&P 500. A bad week on Wall Street makes him jumpier than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Trump, whatever else you say about him, is a transactional materialist who approaches geopolitics the way a real estate developer approaches zoning disputes: What’s the angle, where’s the leverage, and can everybody just settle already?

Unfortunately, the fellows running Iran are religious zealots who believe — deeply, sincerely and somewhat alarmingly — in something larger than quarterly economic indicators. Their strategic plan appears to consist of two options: survive (which they see as tantamount to victory), or die gloriously while insisting they meant to do that all along.

Which makes their current behavior grimly logical.

The Iranian regime, such as it is, doesn’t have much to lose. But they know exactly what Trump has to lose: His popularity and political legacy are now tied to the price of oil.

Releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves will help to some extent, but this is not a long-term solution. And Iran is betting that when the price at the pump for U.S. consumers starts looking like a luxury car payment, Trump will do what critics like to summarize as TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

Lots of American political observers agree. And it’s not just moderates or RINOs who are teasing this.

Referring to the U.S. military, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business: “They have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. I don’t care what it costs.”

“If they can’t keep it open,” Gingrich continued, “this war will, in fact, be an American defeat before very long, because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil if the strait stays closed very long.”

Perhaps the U.S. military can pull off a delicate trick: keep our “armada” in the region, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, clear any mines that are laid and prevent some unlucky tanker from being hit by a mine — or, for that matter, by a drone or missile fired from the Iranian coast. That final risk is why some military analysts believe reopening the strait would require a ground operation.

Imagine that the U.S. manages to thread these needles. Then what?

Total and complete surrender? Regime change? Boots on the ground?

Absent a swift exit (like, tomorrow), we’re left with the two classic options of power politics: a delayed and more ignominious retreat or increased escalation.

And, historically speaking, American presidents are more likely to double down — with tragic results.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

Energy markets remain on tenterhooks as the prospect of prolonged war in the Middle East grows.

Oil prices have again risen above $100 per barrel as energy markets see little relief amid the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in a generation.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged more than 9 percent on Thursday as traders weighed the prospect of weeks, or even months, of turmoil in energy markets as the United States and Israel wage war on Iran.

Brent futures, which are traded outside of regular market hours, were priced at $101.13 as of 03:00 GMT.

Asian stock markets, including exchanges in Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong, opened sharply lower on Friday, following steep losses on Wall Street overnight.

The latest surge in oil prices came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports about one-fifth of global oil supplies.

In a statement read out on his behalf on Iranian state television, Khamenei described Tehran’s threats against shipping in the waterway as a “lever” that “must continue to be used”.

US President Donald Trump struck a similarly defiant tone on Thursday, posting on Truth Social that stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was of “far greater interest and importance” than rising oil prices.

‘Lack of tangible goals in this war’

Traffic through the strait has effectively ground to a halt due to Iranian threats, with only a handful of vessels passing through each day, many of them claiming links to China, Iran’s key economic partner.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, no more than five ships have passed through the waterway each day since the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, compared with an average of 138 daily transits before the war. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region since the start of the conflict, according to the UKMTO.

Tehran has claimed responsibility for several of the attacks, including a strike on Wednesday that crippled a Thai-flagged vessel off the coast of Oman.

Efforts to bring calm to the market have so far done little to tame prices, which are up nearly 40 percent compared with before the start of the war.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) announcement on Wednesday that member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles drew a tepid response among traders eyeing a daily shortfall in global supplies estimated at 15-20 million barrels.

The US Department of the Treasury’s issuance on Thursday of a temporary licence authorising countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil that has been stranded at sea also failed to move the market, with Brent crude staying above $100 a barrel after the Treasury announcement.

“The key problem is a lack of tangible goals in this war,” said Adi Imsirovic, an energy security expert at the University of Oxford.

“It makes it hard for oil traders to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

Trump has repeatedly floated the possibility of using the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait, but the Pentagon has yet to conduct such operations amid concerns about the risks posed by Iranian attacks in the narrow waterway.

In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that Washington was “not ready” to provide navy escorts but that such operations could begin by the end of the month.

“It’ll happen relatively soon but it can’t happen now,” Wright said.

Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran will not close the Strait of Hormuz and remains committed to freedom of navigation. His remarks came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the waterway would remain closed to pressure Iran’s enemies. 

WASHINGTON — Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed retaliation Thursday against the United States and Israel and signaled that Tehran will continue to choke off the world’s most critical oil route, as the war strained global energy markets and raised new security concerns in the United States.

In his first public remarks since U.S.–Israeli strikes killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei swore revenge. The new leader, notably, did not appear in person for the televised statement. Instead, his written words were read aloud on Iranian state media.

“We will never retreat and vow to avenge the blood of our martyrs,” he said. “Our revenge will be never ending, not only for the late supreme leader, but also for the blood of all of our martyrs. … Those who killed our children will pay the price.”

The new leader expressed condolences to families who lost children in a strike on a girls school in Minab that killed more than 165 people, many of them children. He also warned that the war could expand, declaring that the continuation of the conflict “depends on the interests of the parties.”

The Associated Press, citing two sources, reported that outdated intelligence likely led to the United States carrying out the deadly missile strike on the elementary school. U.S. Central Command relied on target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, according to a person familiar with the preliminary finding.

Khamenei indicated that Tehran would maintain its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point through which 20% of the world’s oil supply is shipped. He also said he believes in friendship with his country’s neighbors, but that attacks on U.S. military installations in the region will continue. He described maintaining pressure on the passage as a necessary part of Iran’s war strategy.

His remarks came as attacks continued to disrupt shipping and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. The war sent oil up 10% Thursday as hostilities in Iran drag on.

Reports from the region said Iranian forces have intensified strikes on vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving hundreds of ships stranded at its entrances and rattling global oil markets.

Two oil tankers were struck by explosives in Iraqi waters near the port of Basra. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the attacks, which killed at least one crew member and set both vessels ablaze, according to the Associated Press. A third unnamed vessel was reported to have been struck by an “unknown projectile” near Dubai and Jebel Ali, causing a small fire, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported.

The latest incidents come after drone strikes targeted fuel storage facilities across the Gulf, including at energy sites in Bahrain and at the port of Salalah in Oman, an important hub for tankers seeking to bypass the Strait.

“They will pay the price. We will destroy their facilities,” Khamenei said. “It is necessary to continue our defensive activity, including continuing to close the Strait of Hormuz.”