Hormuz

Energy markets remain on tenterhooks as the prospect of prolonged war in the Middle East grows.

Oil prices have again risen above $100 per barrel as energy markets see little relief amid the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in a generation.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged more than 9 percent on Thursday as traders weighed the prospect of weeks, or even months, of turmoil in energy markets as the United States and Israel wage war on Iran.

Brent futures, which are traded outside of regular market hours, were priced at $101.13 as of 03:00 GMT.

Asian stock markets, including exchanges in Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong, opened sharply lower on Friday, following steep losses on Wall Street overnight.

The latest surge in oil prices came after Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports about one-fifth of global oil supplies.

In a statement read out on his behalf on Iranian state television, Khamenei described Tehran’s threats against shipping in the waterway as a “lever” that “must continue to be used”.

US President Donald Trump struck a similarly defiant tone on Thursday, posting on Truth Social that stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons was of “far greater interest and importance” than rising oil prices.

‘Lack of tangible goals in this war’

Traffic through the strait has effectively ground to a halt due to Iranian threats, with only a handful of vessels passing through each day, many of them claiming links to China, Iran’s key economic partner.

According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, no more than five ships have passed through the waterway each day since the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, compared with an average of 138 daily transits before the war. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region since the start of the conflict, according to the UKMTO.

Tehran has claimed responsibility for several of the attacks, including a strike on Wednesday that crippled a Thai-flagged vessel off the coast of Oman.

Efforts to bring calm to the market have so far done little to tame prices, which are up nearly 40 percent compared with before the start of the war.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) announcement on Wednesday that member countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles drew a tepid response among traders eyeing a daily shortfall in global supplies estimated at 15-20 million barrels.

The US Department of the Treasury’s issuance on Thursday of a temporary licence authorising countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil that has been stranded at sea also failed to move the market, with Brent crude staying above $100 a barrel after the Treasury announcement.

“The key problem is a lack of tangible goals in this war,” said Adi Imsirovic, an energy security expert at the University of Oxford.

“It makes it hard for oil traders to see the light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

Trump has repeatedly floated the possibility of using the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait, but the Pentagon has yet to conduct such operations amid concerns about the risks posed by Iranian attacks in the narrow waterway.

In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that Washington was “not ready” to provide navy escorts but that such operations could begin by the end of the month.

“It’ll happen relatively soon but it can’t happen now,” Wright said.

Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said Tehran will not close the Strait of Hormuz and remains committed to freedom of navigation. His remarks came after Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the waterway would remain closed to pressure Iran’s enemies. 

WASHINGTON — Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed retaliation Thursday against the United States and Israel and signaled that Tehran will continue to choke off the world’s most critical oil route, as the war strained global energy markets and raised new security concerns in the United States.

In his first public remarks since U.S.–Israeli strikes killed his father, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei swore revenge. The new leader, notably, did not appear in person for the televised statement. Instead, his written words were read aloud on Iranian state media.

“We will never retreat and vow to avenge the blood of our martyrs,” he said. “Our revenge will be never ending, not only for the late supreme leader, but also for the blood of all of our martyrs. … Those who killed our children will pay the price.”

The new leader expressed condolences to families who lost children in a strike on a girls school in Minab that killed more than 165 people, many of them children. He also warned that the war could expand, declaring that the continuation of the conflict “depends on the interests of the parties.”

The Associated Press, citing two sources, reported that outdated intelligence likely led to the United States carrying out the deadly missile strike on the elementary school. U.S. Central Command relied on target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, according to a person familiar with the preliminary finding.

Khamenei indicated that Tehran would maintain its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point through which 20% of the world’s oil supply is shipped. He also said he believes in friendship with his country’s neighbors, but that attacks on U.S. military installations in the region will continue. He described maintaining pressure on the passage as a necessary part of Iran’s war strategy.

His remarks came as attacks continued to disrupt shipping and energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. The war sent oil up 10% Thursday as hostilities in Iran drag on.

Reports from the region said Iranian forces have intensified strikes on vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving hundreds of ships stranded at its entrances and rattling global oil markets.

Two oil tankers were struck by explosives in Iraqi waters near the port of Basra. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the attacks, which killed at least one crew member and set both vessels ablaze, according to the Associated Press. A third unnamed vessel was reported to have been struck by an “unknown projectile” near Dubai and Jebel Ali, causing a small fire, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported.

The latest incidents come after drone strikes targeted fuel storage facilities across the Gulf, including at energy sites in Bahrain and at the port of Salalah in Oman, an important hub for tankers seeking to bypass the Strait.

“They will pay the price. We will destroy their facilities,” Khamenei said. “It is necessary to continue our defensive activity, including continuing to close the Strait of Hormuz.”

The U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but it will happen. This is the synopsis provided by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in an interview with CNBC. The development comes as Iran continues to pummel international shipping in and around the critical channel, which the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vows to keep closed.

“It’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now,” Wright said, of the planned naval escort mission. “We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities.” Wright added that the Navy should be able to escort tankers through the strait by the end of this month.

Khamenei, it appears, is also resolute in his plan to keep the strait closed to all maritime traffic, reportedly having turned down approaches from several countries that were seeking an end to the attacks.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 3 that “the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.”

Putting a date of the end of this month on the escort mission is certain to trouble markets that are already feeling the pressure of the conflict. At the very least, this is an indicator that the war or its hostile aftermath will continue for weeks to come.

Equally pessimistically, there have been reports from analysts suggesting that fully reopening the strait may require some kind of ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline adjacent to it.

“Strategic priorities, like opening the Strait of Hormuz and securing what remains of Iran’s nuclear stockpile, will likely require some ground troops if no diplomatic options are pursued,” Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The Wall Street Journal. “What we are looking at is potentially a very messy situation.”

Even without boots on the ground, which now seems like a remote prospect, running a tanker-escort mission, which would involve convoys protected by warships and accompanied by mine-clearing assets, is fraught with difficulty. Military unwillingness to take on missions of this kind is an issue we have explored in the past at TWZ.

The warships involved in any such endeavor would also be at extreme risk, especially from Iranian ground-mobile anti-ship missiles, which are relatively small and can be easily disguised in utility trucks. Eliminating that threat is one potential driver for a ground operation along the coast of the strait.

The U.S. military has made extensive efforts in recent days to remove the Iranian minelaying capability, but, according to the U.K. Defense Secretary, there are now increasing signs that Iran may have started mining the strait.

The Ambrey maritime security firm told us that a Malta-flagged crude oil tanker and another merchant vessel were targeted in an attack in Al Basrah Anchorage, Iraq. One fatality was reported. At least 38 individuals were rescued from both vessels according to the Iraq Port Authority, with further search and rescue operations ongoing as of this morning.

Video footage of the incident shows a vessel engulfed in fire with a large plume of smoke rising from the area of impact. Fire can also be seen in the water as a result of the oil spill.

Unverified reports state that the two tankers were struck by uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs).

Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil identified the two vessels as crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu and the combined chemical and oil tanker Zefyros. While the Zefyros is Malta-flagged, the Safesea Vishnu is owned by a U.S. company but was sailing under the Marshall Islands flag. A dramatic video has appeared that is said to show the moment of the explosion that targeted the Safesea Vishnu.

In a statement, the IRGC said that it considered the Safesea Vishnu as an asset of the U.S. military and claims that it was struck after ignoring repeated warnings and alerts from the IRGC Navy.

Ambrey also reports that a container vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 38 nautical miles north-northeast of Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates. The strike was reported to have caused a small fire on board the vessel, and the crew was reported to be safe.

Another vessel, the Japanese-flagged container ship One Majesty, was reportedly also damaged while anchored in the Persian Gulf. The damage was only discovered later, around 60 miles from the Strait of Hormuz. There were no reports of casualties.

The vessel seen burning in the video below, from the perspective of crew members who evacuated on a liferaft, is the Thai-flagged cargo vessel, Mayuree Naree Bangkok, which was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.

The United States military is “not ready” to accompany oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a top official in President Donald Trump’s administration says as Iran continues to block the strategic waterway.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the CNBC business news channel on Thursday that the markets are experiencing a “short-term disruption”, predicting that the war would go on for “weeks, not months”.

Despite Trump’s repeated threats, Iran has largely succeeded in shutting down the strait, which links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean. The closure has sent oil prices soaring.

Wright described the effects of the crisis as “short-term pain for long-term gain”, arguing that the US is “destroying” Iran’s ability to threaten the energy market.

Last week, Trump suggested that the US Navy would escort ships through the Gulf, but Wright said on Thursday that the move “can’t happen now”.

“We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities,” the energy secretary said.

“We don’t want this to be a brush-off for a year or two. We want to permanently destroy their ability to build missiles, to build roads, to have a nuclear programme.”

His comments came as Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, affirmed in his first public comment since being selected to succeed his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei, that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed during the war.

“The will of the people is to continue effective and deterrent defence,” Khamenei said in a written statement. “The tactic of closing the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used.”

The Iranian military has said it would “welcome” the US Navy escorting oil ships, suggesting it is prepared to strike US forces in the narrow waterway.

On Wednesday, three commercial vessels were attacked near the strait.

Wright announced earlier this week on social media that the US Navy had escorted an oil ship through the strait, then quickly deleted the post. The White House subsequently confirmed that the claim was not true.

It is not clear why the statement was released and then retracted.

Assurances by US officials that Washington would open the strait have temporarily calmed markets, only for prices to spike again.

The price of a barrel of oil peaked at about $120 on Sunday, up from about $70 before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. It has been yo-yoing between $80 and $100 for the past few days.

In addition to the marine blockade, Iran has targeted oil installations across the Gulf.

As one of the world’s largest oil producers, the US is largely self-sufficient. But possible shortages in Asia and Europe have put a strain on prices globally.

According to data from the American Automobile Association, the average price of one gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol in the US is now $3.60, up from $2.94 last month.

Rising energy prices could fuel inflation and affect the cost of basic goods, including food.

But Trump suggested on Thursday that the US is benefitting from skyrocketing oil prices.

“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” the US president wrote in a social media post.

“BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World.”

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, and Trump reiterated for months before the current conflict that US strikes against Iranian facilities in June had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear programme.

As the Operation Epic Fury joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran moves into its 12th day, Tehran is intensifying its campaign against shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. At least three commercial ships were struck today, according to a British monitoring organization.

Each were hit in separate incidents by an “unknown projectile,” according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a monitoring agency that is part of the U.K. Royal Navy. One was a cargo ship traveling north of Oman. Another was a bulk carrier hit north of Dubai. The third was a container vessel struck near Ras al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, The Washington Post noted.

Since Epic Fury was launched on Feb. 28, UKMTO “has received 17 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz (SOH) and Gulf of Oman,” the organization stated. That figure includes 13 attacks and four suspicious incident reports.

Iran said it is increasing these attacks to serve as an economic weapon against the U.S., Israel and allies.

The U.S. “will not be able to control oil prices,” the spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters vowed on Wednesday.

“We won’t allow even one liter of oil to reach the U.S., Zionists and their partners,”  Ebrahim Zolfaqari proclaimed. “Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target.”

“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilized,” Zolfaqari added.

As one example of market volatility, Brent Crude was trading at just over $90 a barrel as of Wednesday morning Eastern Day Light time, according to OilPrice.com. The prices have fluctuated wildly, surging to a recent high of more than $116 a barrel on March 8 and dropping to a little more than $84 a barrel yesterday.

🚨Iran is threatening to not allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, also saying they will force oil to $200 per barrel.

“Not a single liter of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the U.S., Israel, or their partners.”

pic.twitter.com/AdabOT8t3Q

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 11, 2026

Even as it cuts off the Strait for others, Iran is “exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers,” The Wall Street Journal reported.

Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers https://t.co/CeZTClmHBa

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 11, 2026

The world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Qatar hasn’t exported a shipment for five days, Bloomberg News reported. It marks the longest streak in data going back to 2008.

“A loaded tanker hasn’t left the Ras Laffan facility in five days,” according to a Bloomberg analysis of Kpler ship-tracking data. “No LNG ship traversed the Strait of Hormuz after Feb. 28, when the US and Israel began strikes on Iran.”

The unprecedented closure of the liquefaction plant, which supplies nearly 20% of the world’s LNG, came after an Iranian drone attack early last week — resulting in a jump in gas prices in Europe and Asia, the news organization noted. Ras Laffan did load a handful of shipments after stopping output, likely using fuel from storage tanks, the last of which was on Friday.

The world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar hasn’t exported a shipment for five days — the longest streak in data going back to 2008 — threatening to further boost prices for the fuel https://t.co/BKFTpIV0dH

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

Two pipelines were built – one in Saudi Arabia, the other in UAE – just to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict, The Wall Street Journal posited, has highlighted their importance since they are the only ways to get a significant amount of oil out of the Persian Gulf and into world markets.

The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly made Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline one of the most critical pieces of infrastructure in the world https://t.co/6bwxev9vKc

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 11, 2026

Iran’s closure of the Strait to most foreign shipping has thrown the world energy market into chaos, causing oil and gas prices to fluctuate dramatically.

“Japan, Germany and Austria will release oil from their strategic reserves in response to disruptions in the supply from the Middle East, officials in those countries said on Wednesday,” according to the Post. “They made the announcements hours before a meeting of leaders of the Group of 7 industrialized nations, including the United States, to discuss jointly releasing oil in consultation with the International Energy Agency.”

Japan will begin releasing oil from its reserves as early as Monday to offset disruptions in Middle Eastern supply, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Wednesday in Tokyo.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, the largest such action in the organization’s history, CNBC reported.

“The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market,” the news outlet noted. “It said that the reserves would be released over a timeframe that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.”

The U.S., meanwhile, has yet to tap into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a network of salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana that can hold up to 714 million barrels of crude.

PARIS/LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency is to recommend the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in IEA history, to try to restrain soaring crude prices amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

Iran is not preventing all ships from passing through the Strait. Tehran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil vessels with safe passage. The move comes as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has officially agreed to grant safe passage to Bangladeshi oil and LNG vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the new agreement, Bangladeshi ships must notify Iranian authorities before entering the strategic waterway to ensure secure transit.

The move comes… pic.twitter.com/24spSuaLKl

— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) March 11, 2026

Some vessels are also using their AIS system to identify as Chinese owned, shipping expert Sal Mercogliano noted. Iran’s closure of the Strait does not pertain to Chinese-owned ships.

The Marshal Islands-bulker KSL Laiyang is running the Strait.

She is broadcasting on AIS “China Owners & Crew”.

This is EXACTLY what we saw happen in the Red Sea against the Houthis. Expect to see more of this. pic.twitter.com/LSCESnEDKI

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 10, 2026

The New York Times claimed that Iran’s ongoing attacks on shipping, as well as its continuing missile and drone barrages are an example of how the Trump administration miscalculated Iran’s response to Epic Fury.

The Trump administration has said it will send U.S. Navy warships to escort commercial vessels through the Strait, but that plan has yet to be implemented. Such a deployment would put American warships at far greater risk than they are facing now at standoff distances from Iran. It remains unclear how much longer Epic Fury will continue. The longer it does, however, the more Iran can bring economic pain around the globe with even just threats against Strait shipping. The Iranian attacks have led to Trump proposing that the U.S. provide political risk insurance for seaborne trade in the Gulf. “However, Lloyd’s of London, the heart of maritime insurance globally, emphasizes it has not stopped providing contracts to those who ask – although at the right tariff,” The Guardian reported.

Though no escorts have been set up, the U.S. is continuing to strike Iran’s Navy, including the sinking of the last of Iran’s Soleimani class catamaran warships, the head of U.S. Central Command said in a video statement on Wednesday morning.

“To date, we have struck more than 5,500 targets inside Iran, including more than 60 ships using a variety of precision weapon systems,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video. “Just yesterday, we had strike waves nearly every hour from different locations and directions going into Iran. We also took out the last of four Soleimani class warships. That’s an entire class of Iranian ships now out of the fight.”

Cooper did not name which of the catamarans was hit, but the video shows one from the Soleimani class and one from a smaller class. The hull number on the smaller ship – PC313-01 – indicates it was the IRIS Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The ship was unveiled in a ceremony at Bandar Abbas in January 2024, the Iranian Press TV news outlet reported at the time.

U.S. Army Sgt. First Class Cory Hicks told ABC News about the Iranian drone attack on a command center in Kuwait that killed six soldiers on March 1.

Sgt. First Class Cory Hicks described the horrific moment a drone struck a U.S. command center in Kuwait and killed six service members: “I turned to my right, and that’s when it blew up and just blew the whole building apart.”

What You Need to Know is streaming on @DisneyPlus.… pic.twitter.com/7Zf0WQLYIp

— ABC News (@ABC) March 11, 2026

The deadly attack was more severe than previously known, with dozens of troops suffering injuries that included brain trauma, burns and severe injuries from shrapnel, according to CBS News.

NEWS via @CBSNews: An Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed U.S. service members in the early hours of the war with Iran was more severe than previously known, with dozens suffering injuries that included brain trauma, shrapnel trauma and burns, per sources. More than 30…

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) March 11, 2026

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is “safe and sound” despite war injuries, Yousef Pezeshkian, a government adviser and the son of Iran’s president, claimed on Wednesday.

“I heard news that Mr Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured. I have asked some friends who had connections,” Pezeshkian stated on Telegram. “They told me that, thank God, he is safe and sound.”

State television had called Khamenei, 56, a “wounded veteran of the Ramadan war” but never specified his injury.

BREAKING Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “safe and sound” despite reports of an injury during the war with Israel and the United States, the son of the Iranian president said on Wednesday pic.twitter.com/97ofF4dS1G

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 11, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to attack “economic centers and banks” related to United States and Israeli entities in the region after what it called an attack on an Iranian bank, Al Jazeera reported.

A spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, a group described as IRGC-owned by the United Nations, said on Wednesday that “the enemy left our hands open to targeting economic centres and banks belonging to the United States and the Zionist regime in the region.”

To the people of Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait: Do not remain within one kilometer of banks

Khatam al‑Anbiya Headquarters spokesperson: After the U.S. and Israeli attack on an Iranian bank, we are now free to target U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks across the region.

— IRAN MILITARY ☫ (@IranMilitaryEN) March 11, 2026

The warning came after a reported attack on a Bank Sepah branch north of Iran, which is said to have killed many putting in extra hours ahead of the Persian New Year.

The Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense HQs warns people in the entire region to stay away for 1km from banks after American-Zionists attacked a Bank Sepah branch in north of Tehran, killing a lot of personnel working extra hours ahead of Persian New Year. pic.twitter.com/JYcAaCQlLI

— Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی 🟩 ☫ 🟥 (@fresh_sadegh) March 11, 2026

Iranian officials claimed to have hit several other U.S. targets in the region on Wednesday.

(Reuters) – The Iranian military said on Tuesday it had launched missiles at a U.S. base in northern Iraq, the U.S. naval headquarters for the Middle East in Bahrain, and at Be’er Ya’akov city in central Israel.

Explosions rang out in Bahrain, while in Dubai four people were…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 11, 2026

IDF Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir claimed that “many thousands” of Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed so far in this war.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir says “many thousands” of Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes in Iran, warning that “no one is immune.”

“We are in a campaign that is deepening the damage to the Iranian regime and its foundations and pushing… pic.twitter.com/0C5XvjBFTy

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 11, 2026

The IDF released new video showing airstrikes on what it claims were Iranian troops preparing to launch drones.

The IDF releases footage showing airstrikes on Iranian soldiers who were preparing to launch drones at Israel from western Iran this week.

According to the military, the Iranian soldiers were identified on Monday at a drone launching site. A short while later, an Israeli Air… pic.twitter.com/XRWXO7YVaq

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 11, 2026

The IDF completed another wave of strikes in Dahiyeh in Beirut against what it claims were Hezbollah command centers and weapons storage sites. IDF said it issued a warning to residents before the attacks and also struck a Hezbollah command post in the coastal area of Tyre.

צה”ל השלים גל תקיפות נוסף בביירות

הבוקר , צה”ל השלים גל תקיפות נוסף בדאחייה שבביירות נגד מפקדות טרור ואתרים בהם אוכסנו אמצעי לחימה של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה.

בנוסף, צה”ל תקף אתמול , מפקדה של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה במרחב צור שבלבנון.

טרם התקיפות ננקטו צעדים כדי לצמצם את הסיכוי… pic.twitter.com/9nx1X4ZCJ2

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) March 11, 2026

The IDF justified the strike by claiming the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy is hiding missiles, drones and other weapons in the heart of the Dahieh neighborhood in Beirut.

INTELLIGENCE REVEALS: Hezbollah is hiding its strategic weapons in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut, beneath the residential buildings of Lebanese residents. These are missiles, drones and additional weapons funded by the Iranian terror regime and designed to harm Israeli…

— LTC Nadav Shoshani (@LTC_Shoshani) March 10, 2026

The owner of this white pickup may be the luckiest person in the Middle East. Video emerged on social media showing Lebanese Army troops removing an unexploded bomb from the vehicle’s cargo bed.

Faced with growing threats from Hezbollah, Zamir ordered the Golani Brigade to be transferred from the Southern Command to operations in the Northern Command sector.

Zamir added that a decision will be made regarding additional reinforcements.

🚨NEW: The IDF says Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has ordered significant reinforcements to Israel’s northern front, shifting the Golani Brigade combat team from the south to Northern Command following a new operational assessment.

The move comes amid developments in…

— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) March 11, 2026

In a post on X, the UAE Defense Ministry (MoD) said its air defenses “are currently dealing with missile attacks and incoming drones originating from Iran, and the Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, as well as fighter jets intercepting drones and loitering munitions.”

تتعامل حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية مع اعتداءات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة قادمة من إيران وتؤكد وزارة الدفاع أن الأصوات المسموعة في مناطق متفرقة من الدولة هي نتيجة اعتراض كل من منظومات الدفاع الجوي للصواريخ البالستية، والمقاتلات للطائرات المسيرة والجوالة.

UAE air defences are… pic.twitter.com/aa5b1gw7vh

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 11, 2026

Reuters posted a photograph on X of a building in Manama, Bahrain, reportedly damaged by an Iranian drone strike.

A building damaged in a reported Iranian drone strike, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Seef, Manama, Bahrain, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer pic.twitter.com/luPTavYyJT

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

With Bahrain also being battered by Iranian attacks, Gulf Air has relocated its fleet of aircraft from there to Saudi Arabia, according to Al Jazeera.

Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi “called on regional Muslims and countries to reveal the locations of U.S. and Israeli military assets to enable Tehran to conduct more accurate attacks,” the Jerusalem Post reported, citing official Iranian media.

Shekarchi also framed the request as a way to ensure the safety of the people in the region.

“I call on the Muslim people of the region and the countries of the region to show us the hideouts of US and Zionist forces so that they themselves will not be harmed, and so that we can strike them more precisely,” Shekarchi proclaimed.

Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi called on regional Muslims and countries to reveal the locations of US and Israeli military assets to enable Tehran to conduct more accurate attacks.https://t.co/YSSDWmIZ8s

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 11, 2026

In the wake of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack, The New York Times “has identified at least 17 damaged U.S. sites and other installations, several of which have been struck more than once since the war began,” the publication reported. “Our analysis is based on high-resolution, commercial satellite imagery, verified social media videos and statements by U.S. officials and Iranian state media.”

U.S. Air Force maintainers can be seen in the X post below loading weapons onto B-1B Lancer bombers, which have arrived at Fairford Air Base in the U.K.

US Airforce ground crew work under hatches of a B1 Lancer at RAF Fairford today. What appear to be cruise missiles sit by the warplane. Three B1 bombers returned this morning, on what is believed to be the first attack on Iran from a British base during this conflict. @AJENews pic.twitter.com/80YkxHL5rT

— Richard Gaisford (@richardgaisford) March 11, 2026

Romanian President Nicusor Dan said that U.S. refueling planes, monitoring equipment and satellite communications systems can use his country’s military bases.

BUCHAREST, March 11 (Reuters) – American refueling planes, monitoring equipment and satellite communications could use Romanian military bases during the U.S.’ offensive in Iran, Romanian President Nicusor Dan said on Wednesday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

Turkey has reportedly deployed an ASELSAN’s ŞAHİN 40mm anti-drone system to Northern Cyprus, where it is now operational to defend against low-flying mini and micro UAVs using airburst smart grenades.

Türkiye deployed ASELSAN’s ŞAHİN 40mm anti-drone system to Northern Cyprus, where it is now operational to defend against low-flying mini and micro UAVs using airburst smart grenades. pic.twitter.com/HT641qe6w7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims that Russia may send troops to Iran. That would be in addition to the support Moscow is already providing in the form of drones and air defenses, Zelensky said. He added that Russia will likely send missiles in the not-far-off future.

Ukraine, which has long sought interceptors to help fend off waves of Russian missile and drone attacks, took to social media to note the discrepancy in how much it has been supplied over the course of four years versus how much the U.S. and allies have used during 11 days of Epic Fury.

800 Patriot missiles were used for air defense in just 3 days in the Middle East. Ukraine received 600 in 4 years of full-scale war.

Russia, Iran and North Korea form a new Axis of Evil. Ukraine was the first to confront this Axis. We continue to fight, but we need support.

The… pic.twitter.com/wUQVn9gSVK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2026

Add Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the list of world leaders proclaiming that an Ayatollah-led regime in Iran should never obtain nuclear weapons.

Italy’s Meloni on Iran:

We cannot afford an Ayatollah regime in possession of a nuclear weapon, combined, moreover, with a missile capability that could soon be able to directly strike Italy and Europe. pic.twitter.com/gdQE6HlckA

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

UPDATES:

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.

UPDATE: 5:11 PM EST –

Video has emerged showing a reported attack on an oil tanker near Iraq. Information at this point is scarce. The Ambrey martime security firm said it is investigating the matter.

The U.S. used as much as $4 billion worth of munitions in the first 72 hours of its attacks against Iran, including about 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors, Bloomberg News reported, citing estimates from German defense giant Rheinmetall AG.

“The numbers, released in the company’s earnings presentation on Wednesday, were drawn from ‘publicly available sources and in-house assumptions,’ the slides said,” according to the news outlet. “Other reports have put the munitions cost for the first two days of the conflict higher, at as much as $5.6 billion.”

The US used as much as $4 billion worth of munitions in the first 72 hours of its attacks against Iran, including about 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors, according to estimates from German defense giant Rheinmetall https://t.co/7xiR8WNbtM

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

Trump said that he picked the name Epic Fury from a list of about 20 and that the U.S. has already won.

“You know, you can only do it if you win — and we’ve won,” the American leader proclaimed. “Let me say: we’ve won. You never like to say it too early, but we won the bet in the first hour. It was over.”

Trump on Iran:

Operation Epic Fury — is that a great name? Well, it’s only good if you win.

You know, you can only do it if you win — and we’ve won. Let me say: we’ve won. You never like to say it too early, but we won the bet in the first hour. It was over.

They gave me a… pic.twitter.com/AJOEGY08Eq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system “could not stop about half the 100 rockets Hezbollah launched at Israel just a few hours ago,” New York Post reporter Caitlin Doornbos posted on X.

Exclusive: The Iron Dome could not stop about half the 100 rockets Hezbollah launched at Israel just a few hours ago.

— Caitlin Doornbos (@CaitlinDoornbos) March 11, 2026

The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – “agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf,” according to a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.

(Reuters) – The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf, said a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 11, 2026

Despite threats from the regime to stay home, anti-government protestors are reportedly continuing to take to the streets in Iran demanding change.

For 12 consecutive night, without missing a single day, Iranian people have hit the streets to express their anger over Israel/US attacks on Iran & its leader.

They express support for armed forces & demand harsh revenge.

Video from Urumia, 11 PM. https://t.co/GfIhLwFnzZ pic.twitter.com/w0RAIdrxXm

— Arya Yadeghaar (@AryJeay) March 11, 2026

The U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) provided its latest update on Middle East operations.

The UAE MoD said its air defenses “dealt with 6 ballistic missiles, 7 cruise missiles, and 39 drones coming from Iran” today. “Since the start of the brazen Iranian aggression, UAE air defenses have dealt with 268 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,514 drones.”

الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية تتعامل مع 6 صواريخ باليستية و7 صواريخ جوالة و 39 طائرة مسيرة.

تعاملت الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية (11 مارس 2026) مع 6 صواريخ باليستية، و7 صواريخ جوالة، و 39 طائرة مسيرة قادمة من إيران.

ومنذ بدء الاعتداء الإيراني السافر تعاملت الدفاعات الجوية… pic.twitter.com/8BV5VPkwaE

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 4:48 PM EST –

The IRGC posted video it claims shows missile launches toward U.S., Israeli and allied military bases housing American forces in the region.

Iran’s IRGC published footage of its missile launches towards “Israel” and US bases.

The missiles include Qadr, Emad, Kheybar Shekan, and Fattah missiles against targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and US bases in the region such as the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan & Prince Sultan… pic.twitter.com/Jkb8JRO04q

— Arya Yadeghaar (@AryJeay) March 11, 2026

Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks, the nation’s army announced on X. 

“The General Staff of the Army notes that if explosion sounds are heard, they are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks,” the announcement added.

تتصدى حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الكويتية لهجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة معادية.

تنوه رئاسة الأركان العامة للجيش أن أصوات الانفجارات إن سمعت فهي نتيجة اعتراض منظومات الدفاع الجوي للهجمات المعادية.

يرجى من الجميع التقيد بتعليمات الأمن والسلامة الصادرة عن الجهات المختصة.… pic.twitter.com/vFiXjuXdXP

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 4:18 PM EST –

Three Ukrainian teams of military personnel and engineers have gone to the Middle East to help the U.S. and allies in the fight against Iran, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on X.

After four years of fending off daily bombardment by Russian missiles and drones, Ukraine has a lot of hardearned expertise to share.

Three Ukrainian teams have gone to the Middle East. Strong teams – with experts, military personnel, and engineers. The military are already communicating and working today. The NSDC Secretary, Rustem Umerov, has arrived in the UAE today to discuss areas of cooperation. He will…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 11, 2026

Al Jazeera said a senior Iranian military official claimed that if “Washington commits a strategic mistake, another strait will be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz,” the publication posted on X. “The region may enter a regional war soon, and we still have many cards to play. Any American mistake will complicate the situation in the region, and Iran has phased and graduated military plans.”

#عاجل| مسؤول عسكري إيراني رفيع للجزيرة: إذا ارتكبت واشنطن خطأ استراتيجيا فإن مضيقا آخر سيكون في وضع مماثل لمضيق هرمز
– المنطقة قد تدخل حربا إقليمية قريبا ولا تزال لدينا أوراق عديدة لاستعمالها
– أي خطأ أمريكي سيعقد الوضع في المنطقة ولدى #إيران خطط عسكرية مرحلية ومتدرجة pic.twitter.com/gLm38EUy4D

— قناة الجزيرة (@AJArabic) March 11, 2026

Video is emerging on social media claiming to show Tehran under a large drone attack.

Holy sh*t

Drones are flying all over Tehran tonight hitting basij/IRGC stations

Israel is neutralizing the regime’s crackdown machine…it’s finally happening pic.twitter.com/Yz7Nj3sdNW

— Throwback Iran (@Tarikh_Eran) March 11, 2026

Despite what appears to be a coordinated Israel attack on Basij checkpoints in Tehran, the regime is reportedly keeping a tight lid on any potential anti-government protests, journalist Nilo Tabrizy said a source told her.

“The government constantly sends threatening [text] messages to everyone. It says that if you come to the streets to protest, you will be considered an Israeli soldier and will be killed.”

A source in Iran told me about the continued repression by state security forces despite waves of heavy air strikes over their city:

“The government constantly sends threatening [text] messages to everyone. It says that if you come to the streets to protest, you will be…

— Nilo Tabrizy (@ntabrizy) March 11, 2026

Meanwhile, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament is urging pro-government crowds to remain on the streets.

“Dear Iranian nation, to whom I would sacrifice my life a thousand times!” MB Ghalibaf stated on X. “Your presence in the streets has bewildered and enraged the enemy. This humble soldier of yours has three requests from you: the streets, the streets, the streets. Your children in the armed forces have taken their lives in hand to defend #Iran; strengthen their backs by holding the streets firm.”

ملت عزیز ایران که جانم هزاران بار فدای شما!

حضور شما در خیابان‌ها دشمن را گیج و عصبانی کرده است.

این سرباز کوچکتان سه درخواست از شما دارد: خیابان، خیابان، خیابان.

فرزندان شما درنیروهای مسلح جان خود را برای دفاع از #ایران در دست گرفته‌اند، پشت آنها را با حفظ خیابان محکم کنید.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 11, 2026

Alarms have again sounded in Bahrain, as the nation braces for another wave of Iranian attacks, officials there claim.

تم إطلاق صافرة الإنذار ،نرجو من المواطنين والمقيمين الهدوء والتوجه لأقرب مكان آمن ومتابعة الأخبار عبر القنوات الرسمية

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) March 11, 2026

Kuwait National Guard bomb squad engineers have destroyed a drone warhead that fell inside a fuel tank, spokesman Jadaan Al-Fadhel said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that no injuries were reported during the operation.

Kuwait National Guard bomb squad engineers have destroyed a drone warhead that fell inside a fuel tank, Spokesman Jadaan Al-Fadhel said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that no injuries were reported during the operation.

The bomb squads worked for seven days to unload the… pic.twitter.com/dj03OwacvK

— KUWAIT TIMES (@kuwaittimesnews) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 3:45 EST –

During a visit to Thermo Fisher Scientific in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Trump said that for Iran, it’s a “war.” But for America, it’s “easier than we thought.”

During a site visit to Thermo Fisher Scientific in Cincinnati on Wednesday, President Trump told reporters the U.S. military operation in Iran is “both” a “little excursion” and a “war.”

“For them it’s a war,” Trump said. “For us it’s turned out to be easier than we thought.”… pic.twitter.com/RkRZxWuRfN

— ABC News (@ABC) March 11, 2026

The U.S. president also claimed that more than two dozen Iranian mine boats have been destroyed during Epic Fury.

“They started talking about mines. So we hit 28 mine ships as of this moment,” Trump proclaimed. “Twenty-eight. Like, using the same weapon — the exact same weapon that we use against the drug dealers in the water. We have — as an example, we had tremendous drugs pouring in through the water — through the sea. And now we have almost none. It’s down 97%.”

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tells reporters that 28 mine-laying vessels operated by the Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) have now been targeted and destroyed:

“They started talking about mines. So we hit 28 mine ships as of this moment.… pic.twitter.com/znwGK9sydD

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2026

Iran deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The move is likely to complicate reopening the waterway — an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas.

🚨 Western sources in a conversation with N12: “The Iranians have already laid more than 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz and intend to lay more. Both the entry and exit routes are blocked – to put pressure on us. They have created a bypass route and allow only those they want to…

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) March 11, 2026

Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast, Bloomberg News is reporting. The move is seen as “a long-shot bid to help ease the global crude supply crunch spurred by his war with Iran,” according to the outlet.

“Trump is set to soon summon authorities under the Defense Production Act to preempt state laws and ease permitting for Sable Offshore Corp., a Houston-based company looking to restart significant production from a cluster of offshore platforms in California,” Bloomberg added. “The plan was described by a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because it’s not yet public.”

Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast, a long-shot bid to help ease the global crude supply crunch spurred by his war with Iran. https://t.co/uopErGQnUh

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

The fire at Oman’s Salahah Port seems to be intensifying. The port was attacked by Iran earlier on Wednesday.

Several security forces and members of Iran’s paramilitary Basij force were killed by Israeli drones in Tehran today, according to the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency.

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency has reported that several security forces and members of the paramilitary Basij force were killed in Tehran today, accusing Israel of targeting them with drones.

— Ghoncheh Habibiazad | غنچه (@GhonchehAzad) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 2:53 PM EST –

Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets from Lebanon and Iran fired several ballistic missiles at the area, according to Israeli media.

The Israeli military later confirmed that it didn’t intercept some of the projectiles, adding that rescue services and emergency teams are “currently operating at the impact sites.”

Video has emerged showing an Iranian Shahed-type long-range strike drone approaching, then hitting the fuel tanks in the Omani port of Salalah earlier on Wednesday. The attack caused a powerful explosion and fireball.

In a post on X, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he told leaders from Russia and Pakistan that his nation reaffirms its “commitment to peace in the region.”

“The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” he exclaimed.

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.

— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) March 11, 2026

The Coordination Committee of the Iraqi Resistance issued a warning to Syrian leader, Ahmed Sharaa, threatening that any hostile move toward Lebanon, particularly if coordinated with the U.S. or Israel, would be treated as a declaration of war against the entire Axis of Resistance.

Notable: The Coordination Committee of the Iraqi Resistance – a loosely coordinated body made up of Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq that align messaging, threats, and occasionally operations – issued a warning to Syrian leader, Ahmed Sharaa, threatening that any hostile move… pic.twitter.com/ze40sgZcPC

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) March 11, 2026

The threat in Iraq remains real as you can see by the following video, which reportedly shows an interceptor hitting an Iranian drone over Erbil.

There is pushback to claims that the U.S. is sending Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems from Korea for deployment to the Middle East.

According to the latest reports, the six launchers present in Korea left their base, delivered (presumably 48) interceptor missiles to Osan Air Base to be transported out, then returned. (And an anti-THAAD group is demanding the radar be removed, as it is still there) https://t.co/T4igHmcCDq

— Joel Atkinson (@Joel_P_Atkinson) March 11, 2026

UAE reportedly sees an opportunity to reclaim the Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb islands that Iran seized in 1971.

The Bellingcat investigative team geolocated eight videos showing U.S. Tomahawk launches.

Bellingcat has geolocated eight videos showing US Tomahawks cruise missiles in Iraq heading towards Iran. The missiles appear to be flying low across valleys and were most likely fired from the Mediterranean sea, an expert told us. pic.twitter.com/9bTO2BODa1

— Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 2:40 PM EST –

Saying most of Iran’s Navy has been destroyed, Trump urged oil companies to start using the Strait of Hormuz again.

TRUMP: I think oil companies should use the Strait of Hormuz.

“We took out just about all of their mine ships in one night… just about all of their navy is gone.”

pic.twitter.com/vJ53Xr1AiN

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 11, 2026

Meanwhile, India condemned the Iranian attack on the Thai ship bound for Kandla.

“Iran and the terrorist militias allied with it may be planning to target U.S.-owned oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq,” the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad warned. “Additionally, Iran-aligned terrorist militias have targeted hotels frequented by Americans in various parts of Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. “

تنبيه أمني – سفارة الولايات المتحدة في بغداد، العراق – 11 آذار 2026 – تحديث رقم 1

الموقع: العراق

التحديث:
قد تكون إيران والميليشيات الإرهابية المتحالفة معها بصدد التخطيط لاستهداف البنية التحتية للنفط والطاقة التي تملكها للولايات المتحدة في العراق. كما وقامت ميليشيات إرهابية…

— U.S. Embassy Baghdad (@USEmbBaghdad) March 11, 2026

The IDF released a video containing what it says was audio of a radio exchange between an Israeli and U.S. pilot.

UPDATE: 2:06 EST –

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Feb. 28 Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, The New York Times reported, citing U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

The Feb. 28 strike on the elementary school was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S., preliminary inquiry says: “U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency.” https://t.co/sgMwh2wRz1 pic.twitter.com/2cTHHdGg3q

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) March 11, 2026

Iran’s Armed Forces spokesman General Shekarchi warned the U.S. and allies against striking Iranian ports.

“If any threat is made against our ports, all docks and economic ports in the entire region will be our legitimate targets, and we will carry out operations heavier than those we have done so far,” he vowed.

#BREAKING
Spokesperson of Iran’s Armed Forces General Shekarchi:
If any threat is made against our ports, all docks and economic ports in the entire region will be our legitimate targets, and we will carry out operations heavier than those we have done so far. pic.twitter.com/vrtKP4bOkQ

— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) March 11, 2026

Iran may be using a Chinese satellite navigation system to target Israel and United States military assets in the Middle East, intelligence experts say, according to Al Jazeera.

“Former French foreign intelligence director Alain Juillet told France’s independent Tocsin podcast this week that it is likely that Iran has been provided access to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system because its targeting has become much more accurate since the 12-Day War with Israel in June,” the outlet reported.

1:55PM EST—

The NYT reports that Pentagon officials told U.S. lawmakers that Iran has as much as 50% of its missiles and launchers remaining.

“Two military officials said there was concern that the Pentagon did not have full clarity on all of Iran’s launch sites. The officials also said that Iran had kept many missiles in reserve to strike at important battlefield targets like the American radars…. Pentagon officials…

— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) March 11, 2026

A Merlin early warning and control helicopter has arrived in Cyprus to provide a critical ‘look down’ capability for spotting incoming drones. You can read about how critical this capability is and how new assets are being sent to the Middle East to help provide it in our story from yesterday linked here.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Attacks on multiple commercial ships in the waters around Iran on Wednesday increased global energy concerns, pushed nations to unleash strategic oil reserves and sparked fresh critiques of the Trump administration’s readiness for a war it started.

As Trump administration and U.S. military officials continued to claim increasing success and advantage in the conflict — and authorities downplayed a reported threat of drone attacks on California — leaders around the world scrambled to respond to the latest attacks and the International Energy Agency’s call for the largest ever release of strategic oil reserves by its members to help stem energy price spikes.

President Trump also faced renewed questions about a deadly strike on an Iranian elementary school at the start of the war, after the New York Times reported Wednesday that a military investigation had determined the U.S. was responsible.

“I don’t know about it,” Trump said when asked about the report.

In an address Wednesday morning, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had “all but stopped” amid the conflict, driving massive global competition for oil and gas in wealthier countries and fuel rationing in poorer nations.

He said the IEA’s 32 member nations have brought a “sense of urgency and solidarity” to recent discussions on the matter, and had unanimously agreed to “launch the largest ever release of emergency oil stocks in our agency’s history,” making 400 million barrels of oil available.

However, he said the most needed change is the “resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

A vendor pumps petrol from Iranian fuel oil tankers for resale near the Bashmakh border crossing between Iraq and Iran.

(Ozan Kose / AFP/Getty Images)

Several countries, including Germany, Austria and Japan, had already confirmed their plans to release reserves.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any U.S. plans to release its strategic reserves, or how much would be released. The U.S. is an IEA member.

Trump told reporters Wednesday that the U.S. has hit Iran “harder than virtually any country in history has been hit,” including by wiping out its naval fleet and eliminating other vessels capable of laying mines, and that he believes oil companies should resume shipments through the strait despite the recent attacks.

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum backed the idea of releasing oil reserves in a Fox News interview.

“Certainly these are the kinds of moments that these reserves are used for, because what we have here is not a shortage of energy in the world; we’ve got a transit problem, which is temporary,” Burgum said. “When you have a temporary transit problem that we’re resolving militarily and diplomatically — which we can resolve and will resolve — this is the perfect time to think about releasing some of those, to take some pressure off of the global price.”

Burgum said that while Iran is “holding the entire world hostage economically by threatening to close the strait,” Trump has made the consequences of such actions “very clear,” and “there’s a lot of options between ourselves and our allies in the region, including our Arab friends in the region, to make sure that those straits keep open and that energy keeps flowing for the global economy.”

The IEA did not provide details as to the release of the 400 million barrels, part of a broader reserve of some 1.2 billion barrels held by its members. It said the reserves “will be made available to the market over a time frame that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each Member country and will be supplemented by additional emergency measures by some countries.”

The agency said an average of 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products transited the strait per day in 2025, and that options for bypassing the strait are “limited.”

While some tankers believed linked to Iran were still getting through the Strait of Hormuz, which under normal circumstances carries about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, Iranian officials threatened attacks on other vessels — saying they would not allow “even a single liter of oil” tied to the U.S., Israel or their allies through the channel, which connects to the Persian Gulf.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. and its powerful Navy would support commercial vessels and ensure the strait remains open to oil shipments, but that has not been the case.

Tankers wait off the Mediterranean coast of southern France on Wednesday.

(Thibaud Moritz / AFP/Getty Images)

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center, run by the British military, reported at least three ships struck in the region Wednesday — including ships off the United Arab Emirates and a cargo ship that was struck by a projectile in the strait just north of Oman, setting it ablaze.

The Trump administration and the U.S. military, meanwhile, have been pushing out messaging about wiping out Iran’s ability to plant mines in the strait — posting dramatic videos of major strikes on tiny boats on small docks.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the leader of U.S. Central Command, said in a video posted to X on Wednesday morning that “in short, U.S. forces continue delivering devastating combat power against the Iranian regime.”

“I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating: U.S. combat power is building, Iranian combat power is declining,” he said.

The U.S. has struck more than 60 Iranian ships, and just “took out the last of four Soleimani-class warships,” he said. “That’s an entire class of Iranian ships now out of the fight.”

Cooper said Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks have “dropped drastically” since the start of the war, though “it’s worth pointing out that Iranian forces continue to target innocent civilians in gulf countries, while hiding behind their own people as they launch attacks from highly populated cities in Iran.”

He also addressed the attacks on commercial shipping in the region directly, saying that “for years, the Iranian regime has threatened commercial shipping and U.S. forces in international waters,” and that the U.S. military’s “mission is to end their ability to project power and harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Other U.S. leaders called the U.S. war plan — and specifically its approach to protecting the Strait of Hormuz — into question.

In a series of posts to X late Tuesday, which he said followed a two-hour classified briefing on the war, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) slammed the administration’s plans as “incoherent and incomplete.”

Murphy wrote that the administration’s goals for the war seemed to be focused primarily on “destroying lots of missiles and boats and drone factories,” and without a clear plan for what to do when Iran — still led by “a hardline regime” — begins rebuilding that infrastructure, other than to continue bombing them. “Which is, of course, endless war,” he wrote.

Murphy also specifically criticized the administration’s plan for the Strait of Hormuz — which he said simply doesn’t exist.

“And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN,” he wrote. “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it [to] say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.”

Ships in the strait remained under threat of various forms of attack Wednesday, as did much of the region as the war raged on.

There was an attack on a U.S. Embassy operations center at Baghdad’s airport, which officials attributed to a drone launched by Iranian proxies based in Iraq. No casualties were reported.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported the death toll there — from fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters — had risen to 634 since last week, including 91 children. Another 1,500 people had been wounded, the ministry said.

Iranian authorities have said U.S. and Israeli attacks have killed 1,255 people since Feb. 28. That includes many Iranian leaders, including then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. U.S. officials have said Iranian attacks in the region have killed seven U.S. service members, with another 140 wounded.

CBS News reported Wednesday that dozens of those injuries were sustained by service members in the March 1 Iranian drone attack on a tactical operations center in Kuwait — which is also where six of the seven deaths occurred.

The outlet reported that the attack was more severe than the Trump administration has revealed, with more than 30 military members still in hospitals Tuesday with a range of battle injuries including “brain trauma, shrapnel wounds and burns.”

Threats extended beyond the Middle East, too — including to California, where law enforcement agencies were warned by federal authorities that Iran “allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack” on California using drones launched from a vessel off the U.S. coast.

However, sources told The Times that advisory was cautionary and not backed by credible intelligence.

Times staff writer Gavin J. Quinton, in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened Iran with unprecedented military consequences if it had placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz and failed to remove them, Anadolu reports.

“If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.

He added that removing the mines would be “a giant step in the right direction.”

Trump, however, also noted that US has “no reports of” Tehran putting out mines in the waterway.

The warning came after a CNN report that Iran has begun laying mines in the strait. Sources told the news outlet that only a few dozen had been placed so far, but Iran still had up to 90% of its small boats and mine-laying vessels intact, leaving it capable of deploying hundreds more.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, with around 20 million barrels of oil passing through it daily. Iran’s IRGC had previously announced the closure of the strait to transit following the start of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, pushing oil prices above and raising fears of a prolonged global energy disruption.

The escalation in the Middle East flared since Israel and the US launched a joint attack on Iran on Feb. 28, and to date killing more than 1,200 people, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was the supreme leader. At least eight US service members have been killed since the beginning of the campaign.

Warning comes as 400 million barrels of oil are being released from global reserves during waterway’s closure.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it will not allow “a litre of oil” through the Strait of Hormuz as the closure of the key Gulf waterway continues to roil global energy markets during the US-Israeli war on Iran.

A spokesperson for the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said on Wednesday that any vessel linked to the United States and Israel or their allies “will be considered a legitimate target”.

“You will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Expect oil at $200 per barrel,” the spokesperson said in a statement. “The price of oil depends on regional security, and you are the main source of insecurity in the region.”

Global oil prices have fluctuated wildly this week during continued US-Israeli attacks against Iran, which has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at targets across the wider Middle East.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies transit, and production slowdowns in some Gulf countries have raised concerns of further disruptions.

Concerns around the duration of the war, which began on February 28 and has shown no sign of abating, are also adding to uncertainty, sending oil prices soaring.

On Wednesday, three ships were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security and risk firms said, including a Thai-flagged cargo vessel that came under attack about 11 nautical miles (18km) north of Oman.

Release of oil reserves

World leaders, including members of the Group of Seven (G7) and the European Union, have been mulling what action to take in response to the war’s impact on global economies.

Christian Bueger, a professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen and an expert in maritime security, said Europe will be facing “a major energy supply crisis” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

“For the shipping industry right now, it’s impossible to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” Bueger told Al Jazeera. “And if there are not stronger signals in the near future that they can at least try to go through the strait, then we are looking at a major shipping crisis, which can last weeks if not months.”

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves to try to lower prices.

“This is a major action aiming to alleviate the immediate impacts of the disruption in markets,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said during an address from the agency’s headquarters in Paris.

“But to be clear, the most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

The reserve supplies will be made available “over a timeframe that is appropriate” for each member state, the IEA said in a statement without providing details.

German Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche said earlier in the day that the country would comply with the release while Austria also said it would make part of its emergency oil reserve available and extend its national strategic gas reserve.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said it would release about 80 million barrels from its private and national oil reserves.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the country, which gets about 70 percent of its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, would begin releasing the reserves on Monday.

March 10 (UPI) — President Donald Trump posted on social media that the United States has destroyed 10 inactive mine-laying vessels on the Strait of Hormuz while the White House cleared up a claim by another administration official.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that the U.S. Navy did not escort an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz after Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed it did on social media.

Leavitt said President Donald Trump may consider using Navy escorts for oil tankers on the strait but that has not happened yet.

“The U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or vessel at this time,” Leavitt told reporters during a press briefing Tuesday.

Earlier in the day, Wright posted that the U.S. Navy “successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.”

Leavitt said she was “made aware of this post,” but had not spoken with Wright about it.

The post was later taken down.

The price of crude oil fell below $80 per barrel briefly following Wright’s post. It climbed again after the post was deleted.

Iran has taken measures to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil trade route, since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Feb. 28.

To combat the impact the military conflict with Iran will have on the global oil market, the United States has discussed plans to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. However, retaliatory strikes by Iran have demanded more military resources, Wright previously said.

WASHINGTON — Some 140 American service members have been wounded since start of the Iran war, with eight of them “severely injured” and receiving medical care, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement.

The casualty toll adds to the seven American troops killed so far in the war, which entered its 11th day with no clear sign of slowing down as U.S. officials indicated that the military campaign was likely to intensify.

Iran, too, took new actions that could escalate the conflict, reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potentially devastating development for the global energy market.

President Trump said that if Iran put mines in the strait and did not remove them immediately, the U.S. military would hit Iran “at a level never seen before.”

“If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The warning was yet another escalation that came after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday would bring the “most intense day of strikes” inside Iran, a fighting tempo that is at odds with Trump’s own assessment that the war is “very complete” and could end “very soon.”

At a Pentagon news conference, Hegseth said “the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes” would be deployed, but declined to say how much longer U.S. forces would be expected to fight in the region. He instead said the president will be the one to “control the throttle.”

“It’s not for me to say whether this is the beginning, the middle, or the end. He will continue to communicate that,” Hegseth told reporters.

That deference places the focus squarely on Trump, who a day earlier delivered mixed signals about the duration of the war, telling reporters at one point that the war is “very much complete” and a later time that it is “the beginning of building a new country.”

At a briefing on Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. military was “way ahead of schedule” on reaching its objectives in Iran, but reiterated that the president alone will decide what victory looks like.

“President Trump will determine when Iran is in a place of unconditional surrender and when they no longer pose a credible and direct threat to the United States of America and our allies,” Leavitt said.

The president’s shifting positions on the war’s conclusion have played out as Trump threatens to hit Iran “twenty times harder” if it attempts to halt the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for the world’s oil supply — and as Democrats in Congress says they are growing concerned about the possibility of Trump sending U.S. ground troops inside Iran.

“We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) told reporters after being briefed on the Iran war.

When asked about Democrats’ concerns, Leavitt said Trump “wisely … does not rule options out as commander-in-chief.”

“I would hesitate to confirm anything that a Democrat says right now about the president’s thinking,” she added.

U.S. says Iran’s fire power is diminishing

As Washington plans out its next steps, the war has shown little signs of slowing. U.S. military officials say Iran’s military capabilities are eroding under sustained strikes that have targeted “deeply buried missile launchers” and made “substantial progress toward destroying” Iran’s navy.

Hegseth said “the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest amount of missiles they have fired yet.”

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that Iran’s ballistic missile attacks “continue to trend downward 90%” since the start of the war, and that drone attacks have decreased by 83%.

U.S. forces are also targeting Iran’s “industrial base in order to prevent the regime from being able attack Americans, our interests and our partners for years to come,” Caine said.

Caine said the Iranian military is adapting to the U.S. strategy, but remains confident in Washington’s ability to overpower Tehran. “They are adapting, as are we, of course. We have very entrepreneurial war fighters out there,” he said. “We are watching what they are doing, and we are adapting faster than they are.”

Asked whether Iran had proved to be a stronger adversary than anticipated, Caine said: “They are fighting, and I respect that, but I don’t think they are more formidable than what we thought.”

Iran, meanwhile, has refused to bow down to Trump’s demands and has issued warnings of its own.

Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official, called Trump’s threat against their targets on the Strait of Hormuz “hollow” and told him that he should instead focus on taking care of himself so that he is not “eliminated.”

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, however, said Iran was determined to keep fighting and was “definitely not looking for a ceasefire.”

“We believe that the aggressor should be punched in the mouth so that he learns a lesson so that he will never think of attacking our beloved Iran again,” Qalibaf said.

New attacks on neighbors

Meanwhile, Iran launched new attacks at Israel and gulf Arab countries. In Bahrain, authorities said an Iranian attack hit a residential building in the capital, Manama, killing a 29-year-old woman and wounding eight people.

Saudi Arabia said it destroyed two drones over its oil-rich eastern region and Kuwait’s National Guard said it shot down six drones. In the United Arab Emirates, firefighters battled a blaze in the industrial city of Ruwais — home to petrochemical plants — after an Iranian drone strike. No injuries were reported.

In Tel Aviv, explosions could be heard as Israel’s defense systems worked to intercept barrages from Iran.

Along with firing missiles and drones at Israel and at American bases in the region, Iran has also targeted energy infrastructure and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for traded oil, sending oil prices soaring. The attacks appear aimed at generating enough global economic pain to pressure the U.S. and Israel to end their strikes.

Brent crude, the international standard, spiked to nearly $120 on Monday before falling back but was still at around $90 a barrel Tuesday, nearly 24% higher than when the war started on Feb. 28.

“The president and his energy team are closely watching the markets, speaking with industry leaders and the U.S. military is drawing up additional options, following the president’s directive to continue keeping the Strait of Hormuz open,” Leavitt said. “I will not broadcast what those options look like but just know the president is not afraid to use them.”

So far, the president has offered to have the U.S. Navy escort oil tankers.

The White House has insisted that soaring gas prices are temporary, but the shock in the energy markets has already prompted the Trump administration to lift oil-related sanctions on some countries, including Russia.

“We are going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump said Monday. “And then who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on because there will be so much peace.”

The war has created an opportunity for Russia to make gains in Ukraine, as hostilities draw the global spotlight away from Kyiv and its struggle to hold back the bigger Russian army. U.S.-brokered talks between the two adversaries have been sidelined as Washington shifts focus to its war in Iran.

As Russia enjoys economic gains from the war-fueled energy crisis in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been gathering forces for a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Key air defense systems have already been diverted from Ukraine to the Persian Gulf, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has dispatched drone interceptors to the region and ordered anti-drone experts to pivot from their war with Russia to help Western allies help intercept Iranian attacks.

“At the moment, the partners’ priority and all attention are focused on the situation around Iran,” Zelensky said on X. “We see that the Russians are now trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the gulf region to the benefit of their aggression.”

Times staff writers Gavin J. Quinton and Michael Wilner, in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report, which also includes reporting from the Associated Press.

Dozens of civilians, including children, wounded by an Iranian drone strike in Bahrain. France deploying warships to secure shipping commerce in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia taking heat from President Trump over its handling of the Iranian women’s soccer team. Markets across Asia plunging as the price of oil surged.

Lebanon reporting half a million people displaced by fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. The U.S. State Department telling nonessential staff to get out of Saudi Arabia after attacks there killed workers from India and Bangladesh. Ukrainian anti-drone experts turning their attention from their war with Russia to help intercept Iranian attacks. The defense minister of ever-neutral Switzerland saying his country believes the U.S.-Israeli war violates international law.

In less than two weeks, the Trump administration has instigated a truly global conflict — and with no quick and clear path to resolution, despite Trump insisting to congressional Republicans gathered at his Miami resort Monday that it would be a “short term excursion.”

“Short term! Short term!” Trump said in a bullish speech about the conflict, in which he said “the world respects us right now more than they have ever respected us before.”

“We’re counting down the minutes until they will be gone,” he said of Iran’s remaining leadership, while adding that the U.S. “will not relent” until Iran is “totally and decisively defeated.”

The war is not isolated to Iran, though it has certainly caused devastation there — with more than 1,300 deaths reported and toxic clouds from strikes on fuel depots hovering over Tehran, a city of some 10 million people.

The war’s effects also are not limited to the Middle East, though they are widespread there — as Israel has pushed into Lebanon and Iran has launched a wave of retaliatory strikes on U.S. allies across the Persian Gulf. The fighting has grounded regional air traffic, threatened desalination facilities that provide drinking water to millions and undermined the safe reputation of modern metropolises such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Unlike the recent U.S. incursion into Venezuela to capture and oust President Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. war on Iran has been met with stiff resistance militarily, drawn in a slew of allies, reignited proxy battles, drastically destabilized the oil trade and shifted dynamics between the U.S. and other major powers such as China and Russia.

China, which gets upward of 50% of its crude oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz, has largely stayed out of the conflict, though China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sunday that the war “should never have happened” and “benefited no one.”

Trump said Monday that the U.S. is less harmed by strait disruptions, and was “really helping China” by securing the strait.

Russia, meanwhile, has emerged the lone winner of energy disruptions in the region, said Robert David English, a UCLA international policy analyst — as the Trump administration considers reducing oil sanctions on Russia to take pressure off of Mideast sources.

Trump said he had a “good talk” with Russian President Vladimir Putin about Iran on Monday. He also said the U.S. was going to suspend sanctions against other countries in order to alleviate strain on oil markets while the Iran conflict persists, but did not provide specifics.

The scope of the war has been dictated in part by Iran, which has historically limited its responses to U.S. strikes but warned after the U.S. bombed its nuclear sites last summer that it would treat any new attacks — large or small — as an act of war, and respond in kind.

Its strikes on U.S. facilities and allies throughout the region reflect that strategy, and are aimed in part at making the war more politically costly for the U.S. by straining global markets and its regional allies, experts said.

However, “you can’t attribute the increasingly global characteristics of the conflict solely to an Iranian strategy, because wars in this region tend to spill over the longer they last, with unintended consequences” including “bringing in all kinds of actors that don’t want to be involved,” said Kevan Harris, an associate professor of sociology who teaches courses on Iran and Middle East politics at the UCLA International Institute.

That can serve as a deterrent to starting wars in the region, he said, but “also makes them more difficult to wind down.”

The surge in oil prices to nearly $120 a barrel Monday — before a remarkable reversal to below $90 by the time U.S. stocks closed — is one of the furthest-reaching effects of the war, and one that clearly had Trump’s attention.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” Trump wrote on social media Sunday.

How long prices will remain elevated or volatile is a matter of debate, but Trump’s “short term” projections have been undercut by increasing strikes on oil and gas facilities in the region.

“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Sunday.

Prices at the pump have surged for average Americans, some of whom were attracted to Trump’s candidacy because of his promises to avoid foreign wars and focus on driving down the cost of living for U.S. citizens.

Now, Trump and other administration officials are facing questions about their own role in putting the world at war, and offering various different justifications. They’ve asserted without proof that the U.S. faced an imminent threat of attack from Iran. Trump has repeatedly hinted that his goal was removing the government.

President Trump speaks at the Republican Members Issues Conference on Monday at Trump National Doral Miami in Doral, Fla.

(Mark Schiefelbein / Associated Press)

In the meantime, Iran has shown no signs of bowing to Trump, rejecting his calls for “surrender” and for him to have a say in naming their next leader. Iran installed Mojtaba Khamenei after Trump said the hard-liner son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be “unacceptable.”

The choice was hailed by the president of Azerbaijan and the leader of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, among other allies.

To date, seven U.S. service members have been killed in the conflict, according to U.S. officials. Every day, U.S. taxpayers are on the hook for nearly $1 billion in war costs, according to one estimate. Democrats have slammed Trump for both.

“This war is coming from the same President that is building a $400 million ballroom in the White House. The same President that says $100 for a barrel for oil is worth it. The same President that doubled healthcare premiums for millions of Americans. But we have money for another endless war?” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) wrote Monday on X.

Other world leaders focused on the global economic impact.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about 20% of the world’s oil, has nearly halted, while producers in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates ceased oil operations without open routes for export.

In response, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested French and other allied naval assets could escort oil tankers in the strait, shifting the security burden there from Washington onto Europe, leaving European vessels vulnerable to hostilities and potentially drawing the European Union deeper into the conflict.

Already, they’ve agreed to allow the U.S. to use bases in their territories, though the U.S. and Spain got into a spat after Spain rejected U.S. use of its bases and Trump threatened U.S. trade with the country.

Macron on Monday also threw additional military support behind Cyprus, following a meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis at a Cyprus air base.

France will dispatch an additional 11 warships to operate across the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, Macron said, after an Iranian drone struck a British military base on Cyprus on Monday.

“When Cyprus is attacked, it is Europe that is attacked,” Macron said.

Located just 150 miles from Israel in the eastern Mediterranean, the island of Cyprus has emerged as a strategic — and exposed — nerve center in the U.S. offensive against Iran. It hosts vital British military bases and acts as an intelligence, surveillance, and logistics hub in countering Iranian influence and proxy attacks.

Britain’s Defense Secretary John Healey said Monday that the United Kingdom was conducting air defense to support the UAE, and that Typhoon jets had taken out two drones — one over Jordan and the other headed to Bahrain.

Trump suggested Monday that the U.S. was on the path toward victory, but acknowledged it had not accomplished all of its goals.

“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said — adding the conflict will end “pretty quickly.”

He said Iran had been “very foolish, very stupid” when it attacked its neighbors, hurting its own chances of success in resisting the U.S.

“Their neighbors were largely neutral, or at least weren’t gonna be involved, and they got attacked,” Trump said. “And it had the reverse effect. The neighbors came onto our side, and started attacking them.”

Iran may still attempt to widen the conflict’s economic and geopolitical impact to keep up pressure and push for a ceasefire in its favor, but that could also backfire, said Benjamin Radd, a political scientist and senior fellow at the UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations.

“Iran’s becoming increasingly like North Korea in this sense,” he said, “isolating itself further.”

French President Emmanuel Macron has said France and its allies are preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz once the “most intense phase” of the US-Israeli war on Iran ends.

Speaking in Cyprus on Monday, Macron said the “purely escort mission” must be prepared by both European and non-European countries.

Its purpose “is to enable, as soon as possible after the most intense phase of the conflict has ended, the escort of container ships and tankers to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz”, the French president said, without providing further details.

Macron’s comments come as global oil prices have surged amid continued attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes across the wider region.

The war has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic Gulf waterway through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass, while Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East also have raised concerns.

Responding to Macron’s comments, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani said, “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region.”

Larijani added in a social media post that security is also unlikely to be restored as a result of plans designed by “parties that were not far removed from supporting this war and contributing to its fanning”.

While European countries have been largely sidelined as the war escalates, several – including France, the United Kingdom and Greece – have sent military assets to Cyprus following an Iranian-made drone attack on a British base on the island.

Greece has dispatched four F-16 fighter planes to the Paphos airbase and its two state-of-the-art frigates Kimon and Psara are patrolling offshore Cyprus, tasked with intercepting any missiles or drones.

Last week, Macron ordered the French frigate Languedoc to waters off Cyprus to bolster the country’s anti-drone and anti-missile defences.

“When Cyprus is attacked, then Europe is attacked,” Macron said after meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Paphos on Monday.

The French president said he would also deploy a total of eight warships, two helicopter carriers and the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider Middle East region, calling the move “unprecedented”.

France’s objective “is to maintain a strictly defensive stance, standing alongside all countries attacked by Iran in its retaliation, to ensure our credibility, and to contribute to regional de-escalation”, Macron said.

“Ultimately, we aim to guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime security.”

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sending oil prices soaring, finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries met in Brussels on Monday to discuss how to respond.

Crude oil prices have increased by about 50 percent since the US and Israel launched the war last month, with international benchmark Brent crude prices surpassing $100 a barrel on Monday.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters that the G7 ministers did not make a decision on the potential release of emergency oil stocks amid the war. “What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools if need be to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles,” Lescure said.

Paul Hickin, editor-in-chief and chief economist at Petroleum Economist, said getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened is the main priority. “That’s not going to happen in any shape or form until there’s a resolution to the conflict,” Hickin told Al Jazeera.

He explained that several countries in the Middle East, such as Kuwait and Iraq, are dependent on the strait to get their energy supplies to market.

“Kuwait and Iraq and those producers, they are really having a shut-in, and it will take a little bit of time to get back up and running,” said Hickin.

“That is the big risk, the knock-on effect … Getting those ships back, getting that infrastructure back up and running, it’s a slow process. So prices won’t come back down as quickly as many may think.”

The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery for the movement of global energy supplies.

Usually, about 20% of global oil and gas passes through the narrow shipping lane in the Gulf.

Iran’s General Sardar Jabbari said that Tehran will now “not let a single drop of oil leave the region”.

A timelapse of marine traffic showed the flow of ships has decreased in the strait since the US and Israeli coordinated military offensive against Iran began on 28 February 2026.

Blocking the strait could further inflate the cost of goods and services worldwide, and hit some of the world’s biggest economies, including China, India and Japan, which are among the top importers of crude oil passing through the waterway.

U.S. Navy could soon be escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, where maritime traffic has effectively stopped due to the current conflict with Iran, according to President Donald Trump. Doing so would demand that American naval vessels transit through the Strait, shifting them away from other duties. More importantly, it would also mean putting them right in a super weapons engagement zone full of Iranian threats that could include cruise and ballistic missiles, one-way-attack drones, explosive-laden kamikaze boats, and naval mines.

“If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible,” President Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social social media network.

“Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf,” he also wrote. “This will be available to all Shipping Lines.”

“No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD. The United States’ ECONOMIC and MILITARY MIGHT is the GREATEST ON EARTH,” he added. “More actions to come.”

U.S. Central Command declined to comment when reached for more details. TWZ has also reached out to the White House.

The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is just 20 nautical miles across at its narrowest point. A significant portion of the waterway falls within Iran’s national waters, which also overlap with those of Oman to the south. Under normal conditions, maritime traffic flows in and out through a pair of established two-mile-wide shipping lanes. Each year, roughly one-fifth of all global oil shipments, and an even higher percentage of seaborne shipments, pass through this one waterway. It is also a major conduit for liquid natural gas exports. Some 3,000 ships, including tankers and container ships, pass through each month.

Politico had earlier reported that President Trump’s administration was considering both of these courses of action, citing unnamed sources.

“It’s becoming a growing concern that the energy markets could face pressures in the coming days as the military campaign intensifies and expands in geographic scope,” one individual said to be familiar with the discussions told that outlet. “Access to the Straits [sic] of Hormuz is obviously vital for both natural gas and crude oil shipments, especially from Qatar and Saudi [Arabia].”

Lloyd’s List has also reported that Trump’s announcement came “less than 24 hours after Navy officials told shipping industry representatives that there was ‘no chance’ of escorts happening any time soon.”

Several civilian vessels have already suffered attacks in and around the Strait since the United States and Israel launched their joint operation against Iran this past weekend. Though American officials insist that Iranian forces have been unable to seal off the highly strategic waterway, maritime traffic through it has now come to a near halt amid the ongoing fighting. Some ships appear to be making the transit with the transporters turned off to reduce the chance of being targeted. The real danger of attack has been compounded by insurers cancelling war risk policies ahead of what are expected to be major rate hikes.

Iranian retaliatory attacks have also been hitting port facilities, as well as energy infrastructure, in multiple Gulf Arab states. As noted, if this situation persists, the potential knock-on effects on global oil and natural gas markets could quickly become severe. Since Iranian authorities have repeatedly threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a major crisis that threatens the regime, TWZ has explored all of this in detail in the past.

Iranian attack drones struck oil storage infrastructure in Fujairah, UAE, this morning, causing a large fire.

Notably, Fujairah is the only major oil export terminal in the UAE that avoids the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/DdAbVOyRoc

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 3, 2026

This is not the first time that the United States has been faced with this predicament or decided to start escorting commercial vessels through the region as a result. The U.S. Navy did just this in the late 1980s during the Tanker War sideshow to the Iran-Iraq War. At the same time, that experience underscores the immense amount of resources such a campaign could require, as well as the risks.

At the peak of those operations, there were some 30 American warships escorting commercial vessels to and from the Persian Gulf. Aircraft, special operations forces, and other assets were also deployed in support. The risks to American service members, as well as the ships they were tasked to safeguard, were very real.

Shortly before the escort mission began in 1987, the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate USS Stark was struck by two French-made Exocet anti-ship cruise missiles fired from an Iraqi aircraft as it sailed in the Persian Gulf. The government of Iraq, then led by Saddam Hussein, apologized, claiming they had mistaken the Americans for an Iranian tanker. In the end, 37 U.S. Navy personnel died, and 21 more were wounded.

In 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, another Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate, was severely damaged after hitting an Iranian naval mine in the Persian Gulf while supporting the escort mission. 10 sailors were injured, but there were thankfully no fatalities.

In the course of the Tanker War, 450 commercial ships also came under attack, and many were damaged or even sunk by missiles, mines, and other threats.

More recently, the U.S. military, as well as the European Union, have established naval task forces to help ensure the free flow of maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as elsewhere in the Middle East. When it comes to Iran, those forces have primarily been called on to respond to attempts to seize ships or otherwise harass them. In the past decade or so, outright Iranian attacks on ships in and around the Persian Gulf have generally been covert and sporadic.

U.S. fires warning shots at Iranian fast boats.

The U.S. Navy released the video below in 2019 in relation to an Iranian covert limpet mine attack on a commercial ship in the Gulf of Oman.

Limpet Mine Attack in the Gulf of Oman: JUNE 13, 2019

Escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz now would involve U.S. Navy warships sailing right into an extremely high-threat zone in the midst of a conflict that has already taken on a regional character.

In general, the U.S. Navy, as well as commercial shipping companies, have loathed convoy operations despite the benefits they offer. As already noted, these missions can be very resource-intensive, as well as risky. Ships tasked with these missions are then also not available for other duties, including striking targets ashore or helping defend other assets. It can also be very time-consuming to assemble maritime convoys and then escort them to their destination. You can read more about all this in a past TWZ feature here.

For all the lessons the U.S. military learned during the Tanker War, Iran has also significantly expanded the scale and scope of anti-ship capabilities since then, as we regularly highlight. Iran’s missile, drone, and naval forces have been degraded just in the past few days of intensive U.S.-Israeli strikes. How much Iran was able to reconstitute missile and other capabilities in the aftermath of losses during the 12 Day War with Israel last year is also unclear.

Two days ago, the Iranian regime had 11 ships in the Gulf of Oman, today they have ZERO. The Iranian regime has harassed and attacked international shipping in the Gulf of Oman for decades. Those days are over. Freedom of maritime navigation has underpinned American and global… pic.twitter.com/nzdkMVMqZC

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 2, 2026

The Iranian regime’s killer drones have been a menace in the Middle East for years. These drones are no longer a tolerable risk. pic.twitter.com/76yhDKI6OW

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 3, 2026

At the same time, much of Iran’s shorter-range missile and drone arsenal is understood to be untouched, as well as dispersed, making interdiction now more challenging. Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio highlighted these threats and the dangers they pose.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The United States is conducting an operation to eliminate the threat of Iran’s short range ballistic missiles and the threat posed by their navy, particularly to naval assets.

That is what the U.S. is focused on right now and is doing quite successfully. pic.twitter.com/zWKBOLVstH

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 2, 2026

Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen were able to cause massive disruptions in maritime traffic in and around the Red Sea between late 2023 and early 2025 using just a portion of what Iran itself could still potentially bring to bear. The U.S. response to Houthi attacks, which included naval deployments to help safeguard commercial shipping, did provide additional valuable lessons learned. It also underscored very real risks to naval assets in environments full of missile and drone threats, as well as to aircraft, including stealth types, flying overhead.

The narrowness of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the insular nature of the Persian Gulf, creates additional challenges and risks compared to operations in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden because there is simply less space to maneuver. Iranian anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as one-way-attack drones, can be fired from road-mobile launchers, including ones disguised as civilian trucks, making it even more difficult to find and fix threats in advance. Proximity in the littoral zone to these threats only further reduces the time available to react.

The Iranian regime is using mobile launchers to indiscriminately fire missiles in an attempt to inflict maximum harm across the region. U.S. forces are hunting these threats down and without apology or hesitation, we are taking them out. pic.twitter.com/gv1SfKCrk4

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 3, 2026

Escort operations mean that American warships would need to transit through the highest threat areas repeatedly, as well, which would only give Iranian forces more engagement opportunities. There is a reason why U.S. naval vessels are currently operating well away from the Persian Gulf in the Arabian Sea, as well as the Eastern Mediterranean.

U.S. naval facilities, as well as civilian ports, on the opposite side of the Persian Gulf have also come under Iranian attack in the past few days, and would not be guaranteed sanctuaries to shelter in. Iranian retaliatory attacks across the Middle East are already showing the limits of some of the most modern air defense capabilities on Earth, especially when faced with large volumes and/or complex mixtures of disparate incoming threats.

An Iranian one-way attack drone, likely a Shahed-136, filmed scoring a direct hit earlier Saturday on the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain in Juffair, located in Manama, the capital of Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/O9AVD7DmzC

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 28, 2026

It is possible that U.S. allies and partners could help bolster an operation to protect regional shipping that is sufficiently separate from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The United Kingdom and France are already conducting defense missions to intercept incoming Iranian threats around the Persian Gulf, as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean. Both of those countries, among others, are also sending more forces to bolster defenses around the region. As already made clear, a protracted upending of oil and natural gas exports from the Arabian Peninsula, as well as Iran itself, will reverberate globally.

TWZ has pointed to this reality in the past as raising key questions about whether the Iranian regime would have the political will, let alone the materiel capacity, to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. For now, though, as we wrote just this morning:

“Increased targeting of Gulf Arab States’ oil and natural gas production is part of a clear Iranian strategy to put pressure on those countries to, in turn, create complications for the United States. As the economic pressure builds, the idea is that these countries will seek to end the conflict, and/or that relations with the U.S. will sour. The prospect of major, long-term disruptions in energy exports from the region has global ramifications, as well, which could bring immense external pressure to end the conflict. There is also the aspect of drawing Arab countries into the conflict, which would complicate it politically and militarily. In addition, some energy targets are not as well defended as U.S. bases in the region, for instance, and scoring hits with the now finite weapons Iran has on hand becomes easier.”

How this will continue to play out, especially if more countries begin to take ostensibly defensive action against Iranian threats, is unknown. There is a very real potential for Iran’s strategy to backfire if the crisis begins to take a toll economically well beyond the Middle East.

U.S. Navy warships escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could help soften those impacts, but not without major risks, as well as the expenditure of significant resources. Risks would remain for shipping companies too, who could still be reluctant to make the transit, especially with uncertain insurance guarantees.

Overall, it remains to be seen how a U.S. mission to get oil and gas flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz might materialize.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

March 3 (Asia Today) — Concerns about a potential “second oil shock” are spreading as tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz, but Japanese analysts say a prolonged blockade is structurally unlikely because China and Iran would suffer the greatest damage.

The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil passes, has effectively entered a state of disruption, rattling energy markets and financial investors.

However, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported Tuesday that a sustained closure would impose excessive costs on all parties involved.

The first factor is China. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China accounts for the largest share of crude oil imports transiting the strait, about 30%. An estimated 40% to 50% of China’s total crude oil imports pass through Hormuz.

China’s strategic petroleum reserves are estimated to cover about 110 days of demand. With its economy already strained by a property downturn and youth unemployment, a prolonged surge in oil prices and supply disruptions could intensify pressure on manufacturing, inflation and exchange rates.

The second factor is Iran. While Tehran appears to hold leverage by controlling the strait, its economy depends heavily on oil exports. China has remained Iran’s primary buyer even under sanctions, accounting for roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports.

A long-term blockade would likely reduce export volumes and slash foreign currency earnings for Iran itself. Japanese financial officials were quoted as saying that maintaining a full blockade over an extended period would not be a rational choice. While it may serve as a short-term bargaining tool, a prolonged standoff could inflict serious damage on Iran’s economy.

The third variable is the United States. Since the shale boom, the United States has become the world’s largest crude oil producer. Only about 3% of U.S. crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning a blockade would not directly paralyze the U.S. economy. Although higher global oil prices could weigh on American consumers, analysts say it is unlikely to serve as a decisive strategic weapon against Washington.

Taken together, a prolonged blockade would amount to what analysts describe as an “asymmetric self-harm” strategy, imposing heavy political and economic costs on all sides. Short-term price spikes and volatility are possible, but sustaining such measures over time would be difficult.

Japan holds strategic petroleum reserves equivalent to more than 250 days of supply and says it has sufficient capacity to absorb short-term shocks. South Korea also maintains government and private stockpiles capable of covering several months of demand.

While rising oil prices would burden South Korea’s trade-dependent economy, energy experts say fears of an immediate physical supply cutoff may be overstated. They stress the need to distinguish between short-term price volatility and actual disruptions to physical supply.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260303010000544

March 3 (UPI) — The Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that runs alongside Iran and through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply, in addition to other essential commodities, runs through, has been blocked.

After the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran, blocking the key trade route has been among the reactions that what is left of the nearly half-century-long regime after the attacks were launched over the weekend.

Iranian state media reported Sunday that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced it would fire on any ship looking to pass the route as many shippers were looking to avoid the region amid the burgeoning war, NBC News, Barron’s and The Times of Israel reported.

Ships that look to avoid the Strait of Hormuz would be forced to sail around the Cape of Good Hope, which is the southernmost tip of Africa and will add at least several days to anything taking the alternate shipping route.

“If major carriers restrict bookings and vessels reroute round the Cape of Good Hope, you’re adding weeks to global shipping schedules,” Wasel & Wasel managing partner Mahmoud Abuswasel told NBC. “That effectively removes capacity from the system.”

Cutting off access, however, may not entirely cut off shipping along the Asia-to-Europe shipping route, but according to Barron’s, the freeze on moving through the strait is “unprecedented” and most shipping companies have advised their vessels to avoid the situation and seek safe haven.

Travelling south around Africa adds roughly 10 days and may increase costs for shipping companies by 30 percent.

Abuswasel told NBC that stretching transit times by days to weeks can slow down a range of businesses, starting with raw materials showing up late and the dominoes falling from there.

“Manufacturers feel it first, and consumers feel it soon after in the form of delays, tighter inventories and rising prices,” he said.

Iran strikes energy infrastructure across the Gulf as IRGC announces closure of Strait of Hormuz.

Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, reiterates that the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’.

A commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through will be attacked, according to Iranian state media.

“The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze,” Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the IRGC’s commander-in-chief, said on Monday.

Tehran has targeted infrastructure critical to the world’s energy production as part of its retaliation for the Israeli and US bombing campaign that began on Saturday and killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials.

“We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region. Oil price will reach $200 in the coming days,” Jabbari said in a post on the IRGC’s Telegram channel.

“The Americans, with debts of thousands of billions of dollars, are dependent on the region’s oil, but they should know that not even a drop of oil will reach them,” he was also quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Rising energy prices

The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, with roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies passing through it.

Any disruptions there will further send crude prices soaring and raise fears of a regional escalation.

Energy prices already rose sharply earlier on Monday as disruptions to tanker traffic through the strait, and damage to production facilities, raised uncertainty about how the US-Israeli attacks on Iran would affect supply to the world economy.

The biggest shock was to natural gas prices, which rose by almost 50 percent in Europe and nearly 40 percent in Asia as QatarEnergy, a major supplier, halted the production of liquefied natural gas after its LNG facilities were attacked.

Earlier, Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery also came under attack from drones, and its defences downed the incoming aircraft, a military spokesman told the state-run Saudi Press Agency. The refinery has a capacity of more than half a million barrels of crude oil a day.

In response, the US said it would take action ⁠to mitigate rising energy prices due to the war with Iran, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“Starting tomorrow, you will see us rolling out those phases to ⁠try to mitigate against ⁠that… We anticipated this could be an issue,” Rubio said.

March 1 (Asia Today) — Japan is closely monitoring the risk of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as tensions surrounding Iran intensify, with officials and media warning of possible energy supply disruptions similar to those faced by South Korea.

Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90% of its crude oil imports, most of which passes through the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. South Korea imports roughly 70% to 90% of its crude from the same region, making both economies vulnerable to prolonged instability.

Japanese newspapers including The Asahi Shimbun and The Yomiuri Shimbun reported Saturday that shipping traffic in the strait has already been affected following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. According to Asahi, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has broadcast warnings to vessels transiting the strait, prompting some tankers to halt operations or reroute. British maritime authorities said several ships reported receiving notifications that the waterway was “blocked,” though the actual status could not be independently confirmed.

About 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The Yomiuri said roughly 80% of tankers bound for Japan transit the strait, raising concerns that a prolonged disruption could lead to supply shortages and sharp price increases.

The Japanese government convened a National Security Council meeting Friday night to assess the situation, focusing on the safety of Japanese nationals and potential economic fallout. The Foreign Ministry issued an advisory urging about 200 Japanese citizens in Iran to consider evacuation while commercial flights remain available.

Japan’s trade ministry said the country holds combined public and private petroleum reserves equivalent to about 254 days of domestic consumption as of the end of December, providing a short-term buffer against supply shocks. However, media outlets warned that stockpiles would not shield consumers from rising fuel costs.

On commodity markets, West Texas Intermediate crude has risen about 17% over the past two months, with the April contract settling at $67.83 on Feb. 27, the highest level in six months. Japanese analysts cited projections that oil could exceed $100 per barrel if Hormuz traffic is severely disrupted, potentially shaving 0.3% to 0.6% off Japan’s gross domestic product.

Analysts note that South Korea shares similar structural exposure, as most of its Middle Eastern oil imports also pass through Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, underscoring the broader regional economic risks tied to escalating tensions.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260301010000068

Footage from near the Strait of Hormuz shows a Palau-flagged oil tanker ablaze after what Oman’s maritime security centre said was a hit from an unidentified projectile. At least three ships have been struck in the area. More than 150 others have dropped anchor to avoid entering the strait.