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Generation Z is using social media to voice concerns about a potential U.S. recession, drawing attention to signs they believe are indicators of economic stress: from Lady Gaga’s newest album to 2000s-style low-rise jeans. Is this an exaggerated response to uncertainty, or is Gen Z tapped into early economic warning signs that might typically go unnoticed?

While it can be tempting to get sucked into these theories, ultimately, experts and data suggest that these are unreliable indicators and that a recession is not looming. Here’s what to know.

Insights from Gen Z on Economic Trends

Generation Z is interpreting the return of 2000s trends as indicators of an impending recession. The resurgence of fashion styles such as low-rise jeans, cheetah print, and rhinestone apparel parallels the cultural trends leading up to the 2008 Great Recession. In turn, Gen Z is concluding that these are warning signs of a similar time period, rather than turning to actual economic data and expert analysis.

Music is another way Gen Z is interpreting recession indicators. For instance, Lady Gaga’s latest album has led TikTok users to comment on how the country is heading toward economic turmoil due to the album’s similarity to her pre-recession era music. Newer artists, such as Chappell Roan, are also sparking commentary on the resemblance of 2000s-styled music, reinforcing this theory. 

Economic Data Analysis: Understanding the Trends

So, is there any merit to what Gen Z sees as cultural cues to a souring economy? Established economic indicators suggest no. Traditionally, economists look at gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, and the stock market to gauge recession risk. Let’s break down where each of these stands.

GDP

Government data reports that GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Increases in consumer spending and investment contributed to the GDP increase. For a recession to start, there needs to be an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in GDP for two consecutive quarters.

J.P. Morgan anticipated a 0.25% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second half of 2025. Based on their data, they estimated that the probability of a recession has decreased from 60% to 40% due to a reduction in tariffs on China by the United States.

Unemployment Rates

Economists and policymakers use the Sahm rule to identify if there is a recession, as described by the U.S. Congress. The rule signals a recession if “the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low in the previous 12 months.”

Unemployment rates are currently at 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For comparison, the unemployment rate before the 2008 recession was 5%. Thus, the rule has not been triggered, indicating that there is no recession, though it remains a useful early indicator of a potential recession.

Stock Market

The Dow was down 1% on March 6, 2026. This downturn, however, appears to reflect a weak jobs report and oil futures amid war rather than signal an impending recession. For reference, the Dow declined 7% on Sept. 29, 2008.

The Bottom Line

Gen Z’s recession indicators, such as music and fashion, may be persuasive, but their concerns do not reflect actual trends. While the pressures of federal layoffs and tariff tensions persist, most traditional indicators signal a moderately stable environment and do not suggest the country is in a recession. 

Ultimately, while Gen Z’s recession interpretations may not be reliable, they do highlight a cultural shift in how younger generations understand the economy, relying on cultural cues rather than traditional data.

The landmark Bangladesh election held last week was ⁠triggered by a Gen Z-led uprising in 2024, yet a youth-led National Citizen Party (NCP) – born out of the uprising – managed to secure only six parliamentary seats out of the 297, the results of which are available.

The results, officially declared on Saturday, showed that voters overwhelmingly chose the long-established Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which comfortably defeated a Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance, of which the NCP is a key partner.

Tarique Rahman of the BNP, which has already governed the country three times, most recently from 2001 to 2006, is set to become prime minister following one of the most consequential elections in the country’s history.

Many young Bangladeshis who voted for the first time described the election as historic, but falling short of their expectations.

“As Generation Z, we didn’t get the expected representation and results after shedding so much blood and losing lives,” student Afsana Hossain Himi told Al Jazeera.

“Still, we are very hopeful. We have representatives from the younger generation, and we hope they will do something good,” she said, referring to the six NCP winners.

Many young Bangladeshis felt the NCP failed to build up a big enough support base in time for ‌the vote.

“They did not live up to the hopes and dreams people had after the 2024 uprising,” 23-year-old university student Sohanur Rahman said. “The NCP’s alignment with Jamaat felt like a betrayal, and many young voters like us chose not to support them.”

NCP spokesperson Asif Mahmud said the ⁠party would rebuild itself in opposition and focus on local government elections due in a year.

‘A new beginning’

The South Asian country of 173 million people has one of the world’s youngest populations, with approximately 44 percent of its vote bank – 56 million – between the ages of 18 and 37.

The election outcome is widely seen as a chance to restore stability after months of upheaval that followed the 2024 uprising, which toppled Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Security forces at the time, acting on her orders, killed more than 1,400 people, according to the United Nations. Hasina has since been handed a death sentence in absentia for the crackdown.

Hasina, currently living in exile in New Delhi, and Rahman’s mother, Khaleda Zia, have for decades towered over the country’s political landscape. Rahman’s father, Ziaur Rahman, a key figure in Bangladesh’s independence struggle, also led the nation from 1977 until his assassination in 1981.

Rahman, who is likely to be sworn in on Tuesday, has pledged that his administration will prioritise the rule of law.

“Our position is clear. Peace and order must be maintained at any cost. No wrongdoing or unlawful activity will be tolerated,” he said at a news conference on Saturday. “Regardless of party, religion, race, or differing opinions, under no circumstances will attacks by the strong against the weak be accepted. Justice will be our guiding principle.”

Shakil Ahmed, a government and politics professor at Jahangirnagar University, said ⁠the Jamaat-NCP alliance pushed away young voters who had wanted a new political class after the fall of Hasina.

“Many saw it as a retreat into old politics rather than a break from it,” Ahmed said. “This decision divided the youth vote and strengthened support for the BNP under Tarique Rahman, which appeared more organised and capable of governing.”

However, for student Farhan Ullash, the vote felt like a long-awaited break with the past.

“After all, the election was a kind of dream for us, a new beginning for Bangladesh,” he said. “I know already BNP is going to make the government. I hope they will listen to us.”

EL TORO — In an extraordinary step, Brig. Gen. Wayne T. Adams has permanently banished from local Marine bases the man he fired as his chief of staff, refusing him access to the officers’ club, the golf course and other facilities usually open to retired personnel.

Col. Joseph E. Underwood, 51, was fired from his post earlier this year and later retired amid allegations that included using base planes for golfing jaunts. Adams decided last week that, because of the charges, the colonel could no longer use the air bases at El Toro or Tustin, his spokesman, Maj. Jim V. McClain, said Monday.

“He’s debarred from this base–period,” McClain said. “He is not allowed to come aboard this base,” except for medical care and commissary visits with his wife, who is ailing, he added.

“The commanding general made the determination that, by the nature of the offenses, Col. Underwood’s presence on the El Toro and Tustin bases was prejudicial to the good order and discipline and proper functioning of these two bases,” McClain said of Adams’ decision.

Adams himself is under investigation by the Marine Corps inspector general’s office for his own use of military planes during trips to Florida, Big Bear and elsewhere.

McClain would not elaborate on what caused Underwood’s banishment. Underwood, however, said he believes that it came as a result of statements he made in an article two weeks ago in The Times Orange County Edition in his first interview since his disciplining.

“It’s so petty. Why don’t they just let it go away?” Underwood complained. “They’ve already killed Col. Sabow–what do they want from me?”

Col. James E. Sabow was the assistant chief of staff at El Toro who killed himself in January, after being suspended also in connection with allegations of misuse of base planes. Underwood and Sabow’s family have charged that what they characterize as the military’s mishandling of the investigation drove Sabow to suicide.

Military officials have vigorously disputed that assertion. McClain on Monday would not discuss Underwood’s claims that he was being “harassed” in the same way that Underwood said Sabow was or that his debarment was spurred by his comments in the Times article.

Underwood, known as “the mayor” of the El Toro base during a sometimes stormy four-year stint as chief of staff, asserted in the article that he had not done anything wrong in his use of base C-12 Beechcraft planes and that Adams had reneged on promises to end the matter quietly.

Underwood also asserted that Adams himself had once ordered a plane to pick him up from a family emergency, even after Underwood had specifically told him that doing so was against regulations.

The Marine Corps is now investigating whether Adams improperly mixed personal and business trips in that case and at least four other flights he took around the country.

In the newest step of that investigation, Adams is to meet in Washington today with the Marines’ inspector general, Maj. Gen. Hollis Davison, officials said.

In his position as commander of the Marines’ western air bases, Adams maintains authority over who can and cannot use government facilities. It was with this authority that he barred Underwood, a move that officials said probably cannot be appealed through the military.

McClain said 175 people–both military and civilian–have been barred from western air bases in the last five years. He did not have a breakdown of these people by rank, but Underwood and three other military officials, in Washington and on the West Coast, said debarments of officers–much less of a colonel–are extremely rare.

“It’s an extraordinary measure for someone of his rank and time of service to be debarred from a base–it’s just not done,” said one high-ranking officer close to the case.

Underwood, a veteran of three decades’ service, said that during his time at El Toro, there were debarments “many times for criminals–drug dealers, thieves, wife beaters, attempted rapists. . . . But how many colonels have ever been barred from a base? The answer I’m sure is zero. . . .”

While Underwood was visiting the East Coast last week, the El Toro command went so far as to boot the tires on his two cars on the base to ensure that he would see the base provost marshal and pick up the letter informing him of his debarment. The letter activates the order.

Since his firing earlier this year, Underwood had been staying in base officers’ quarters for about $5 a day, and he had planned to return there when he gets back to El Toro in mid-May. As a result of his banishment, he will have to find other temporary housing until he joins his wife in a few months to begin a vacation.

He also will not be able to attend official base functions or use facilities such as the officers’ club, the golf course and other recreational sites open to retired officers. He can only use the commissary when accompanied by his wife, McClain said.

One source close to the case said that Underwood’s debarment came in part because of prodding from the Marine Commandant’s office in Washington.

The banishment had been discussed in February at the time Underwood pleaded guilty to charges against him and agreed to pay fines and restitution before his retirement. The ban was not carried out at that time. But later, people from Washington “had seen him on the golf course at El Toro” and it angered them, the source said.