fears

TAIPEI, Taiwan — A resolute Secretary of State Marco Rubio took to the White House lectern Tuesday and declared the United States, under President Trump’s leadership, had launched a bold new operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, based on the principle that international waterways must remain free.

An hour later, Trump walked it all back, ending the complex military endeavor after less than a day.

It was just the latest evidence to America’s allies that the word of the U.S. government is subject entirely to the president’s whims. And such is the worry fueling concerns in Taipei ahead of Trump’s state visit to China this week.

Privately, senior administration officials have assured Taiwanese leadership ahead of the trip that Trump has no intention of changing long-standing U.S. policy on the island, two sources familiar with the discussions said — a stance of “strategic ambiguity” that has avoided any declarative statements on Taiwanese independence since it was coined by Henry Kissinger 55 years ago.

A White House official was definitive that U.S. policy toward Taiwan “remains the same as the first Trump administration.”

“The U.S. One China policy, as our cross-strait policies are collectively known, is based on the Taiwan Relations Act, the three U.S.-PRC Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances to Taiwan,” the official said. “There is no change to our policy with respect to Taiwan.”

But Chinese officials told The Times that their president, Xi Jinping, intends to raise the matter as a top priority, knowing that only one person — Trump himself — speaks for the administration today.

Whether Xi can leverage the intimacy of a private audience to shift Trump’s stance, potentially linking it to other U.S. objectives, is the source of significant concern here.

Taiwanese officials fear even the most subtle rhetorical change in policy from Trump could imperil a delicate status quo that has held, to its benefit, for decades. They have similarly sought assurances that the administration will follow through on a pending U.S. arms sale worth over $10 billion, which received approval from Taiwan’s legislature on Friday.

“The most serious scenario would be if President Trump were to make an impromptu statement, such as, ‘I oppose Taiwanese independence,’ particularly if he were to link this to trade, the Iran issue, or a summit agreement,” said Chienyu Shih, of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan. “This would constitute a rhetorical concession of substantial significance to Beijing.”

Rubio told reporters at his news conference Tuesday — with a similar confidence he expressed on the Iran file — that China understands Washington’s long-standing position on the island.

“I’m sure Taiwan will be a topic of conversation. It always is. The Chinese understand our position on that topic — we understand theirs,” Rubio said.

“I think both countries understand that it is in neither one of our interests to see anything destabilizing happen in that part of the world,” he added. “We don’t need any destabilizing events to occur with regards to Taiwan, or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific. And that’s to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese.”

Trump has suggested a willingness to shift U.S. policy on Taiwan before.

During his initial campaign for the presidency in 2016, Trump openly questioned the One China policy, drawing ire from Beijing for suggesting he might endorse Taiwanese independence. He accepted a call from Taiwan’s president after his victory and would later support significant arms sales to Taipei.

And yet, at a 2017 meeting with Xi, Trump vacillated, telling the Chinese leader he could “deal with” the Taiwan issue in “a matter of months,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The Chinese were reportedly so flabbergasted by the comment that they dismissed it as rhetorical flourish.

“There is concern that the conversation between the two leaders could veer into sensitive territory on the topic of Taiwan,” said Brian Hart, deputy director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “but there are many in the administration who would still appreciate the importance of general continuity in U.S. policy.”

U.S. support for Taiwan’s democratic movement used to be a matter of principle. Today, Washington sees it as a matter of national security. Over 60% of semiconductors are produced in Taiwan, including 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. And it is viewed as the clasp of the first island chain guarding against Chinese maritime expansion.

A robust debate between Taiwan’s Cabinet and the opposition in parliament ended Friday not over whether to accept U.S. defense equipment, but over how much to spend. The Legislative Yuan approved $24 billion in purchases — including a defense package passed by Congress in December and the pending arms sale — falling short of Taipei’s $40-billion proposal.

Anticipation for the president’s state visit is high here in the capital city, where local news is filled with questions over the influence Trump’s war in Iran might have on his appetite for supporting Taiwan.

Chinese defense analysts have seen the war as a sign of U.S. weakness. But Taiwanese defense experts have taken away a different lesson: cheap equipment from a lesser military, such as dumb mines thrown in a strait, may just be enough to paralyze a superpower.

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy, released by the Trump administration in December, emphasized the importance of support for Taiwan and the status quo.

But the Taiwanese took note that the strategy also called for an end to forever wars in the Middle East, offering little preview of the president’s sudden strategic pivot on Iran in February, launching a war few saw coming.

What Trump chooses to say in China “might be difficult to predict,” said Jyh-Shyang Sheu, a scholar of Chinese politics and military capabilities based in Taiwan.

But “in Taipei, we are still focusing on the U.S. policy,” he added, “more focusing on what he does instead of what he says.”

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) has urged its European members to consider switching to US-made jet fuel amid rising concerns over possible shortages caused by the Iran oil crisis

European airlines should contemplate switching to US-manufactured jet fuel amid mounting worries over shortages triggered by the Iran oil crisis, a trade body has warned. The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents carriers, said its European members could “ease some pressure” by altering the type of fuel they use.

Commercial aviation mainly depends on two fuel grades: Jet A-1, which is utilised across most of the world, and Jet A, which is chiefly used in North America. They are comparable, with the principal distinction being that Jet A-1 has a lower maximum freezing point, offering greater versatility on long-haul and polar routes.

Jet A is predominantly manufactured outside the Gulf, from where fuel supplies are restricted by Iran’s limitations on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. IATA’s director of flight and technical operations, Stuart Fox, stated in a blog that using Jet A “could give airlines facing a possible shortfall in fuel supply more options”.

He proposed this could “help the industry make better use of the fuel we have” and “keep schedules intact”. He continued: “Fuel supply could come under pressure if the war in the Middle East continues.

“Using Jet A, which is produced at scale outside the Gulf, could be a practical way to help ease some pressure on existing supply chains.

“This would have to be done through a controlled transition from one approved fuel grade to another. In normal times, that flexibility might not be noticeable. But in today’s circumstances it’s critical to keeping the whole system moving.”

Mr Fox noted that airlines looking to switch from Jet A-1 to Jet A would need to implement crucial safety precautions, including accounting for the higher freezing point and ensuring crew members are fully briefed on which fuel is on board.

On Friday, British Airways’ parent company International Airlines Group cautioned that its profits would take a hit, anticipating spending approximately two billion euro (£1.72 billion) more than budgeted on fuel this year. Chief executive Luis Gallego stated that he does not believe the group will experience “any interruption for the summer” with regard to fuel supply.

BEIRUT — Confusion reigned on Monday over the fate of a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran after a wave of fresh strikes on the United Arab Emirates and Oman, along with reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, undermined confidence in the truce.

The drone and missile strikes, the first since a ceasefire halted fighting in early April, come after the Trump administration launched a wide-scale naval operation on Monday to “guide” stranded maritime vessels out of the vital waterway.

But fears over a return to war have driven another surge in oil prices, pushing them above $114 per barrel — levels not seen since the ceasefire nearly a month ago. Hundreds of cargo ships from dozens of countries remain stuck in the Gulf. And strikes in Dubai have raised concerns about further disruptions to international air travel at one of the world’s busiest airports.

Iran’s state-run news agency, IRNA, said the new U.S. operation was part of President Trump’s “delirium,” after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that passage through the strait required prior approval from Tehran.

“We warn that any foreign armed force, especially the invading American army, will be attacked if they attempt to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz,” said Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi, according to a statement reported by the Iranian state-run Mehr News Agency on Monday.

The operation, which Trump over the weekend dubbed “Project Freedom,” is supported by 15,000 U.S. servicemen and 100 aircraft, according to U.S. Central Command. Their aim is to deny Tehran control over the strait, a narrow, 21-mile-wide passageway through which a fifth of global energy supplies flows.

On Monday, Trump vowed Iran’s forces will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attempt to disrupt Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” Trump was quoted as saying in an interview with Fox News.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases all over the world. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

Iran blocked traffic through the strait soon after the United States and Israel launched their campaign on the country. Last month, days after a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran came into effect, the United States enforced its own naval blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to pressure Iran to make concessions in stalled negotiations.

On Monday, Central Command said in a statement that two American-flagged merchant ships were able to successfully transit the strait, while Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper said the U.S. military sank six Iranian boats and intercepted missiles and drones targeting civilian vessels.

“We have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions,” he said.

“Project Freedom is a defensive operation, and we have deployed anti-ballistic missile destroyers,” he added. “Ships in the Gulf waters belong to 87 countries, and we urge ships to cross the strait.”

IRIB, Iran’s state-run broadcaster, quoted a senior Iranian military official who denied Cooper’s claim of sunk Iranian boats. The IRGC said in a statement on the messaging app Telegram that claims of commercial vessels or tankers traversing the strait were “baseless and completely false.”

Though Cooper did not clarify if the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was now over, a raft of attacks throughout Monday spiked fears that the war would restart, spurring sharp price increases in already-jittery energy markets.

The UAE said a fire broke out and three Indian nationals were injured in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key export hub for the country, after what it described as an Iranian drone attack.

It also accused Iran of targeting a tanker linked to the country’s state oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz, while the country’s defense ministry also reported four cruise missiles launched from Iran, saying that it intercepted three of them while the fourth fell in the sea.

“These attacks constitute a dangerous escalation and an unacceptable transgression,” said a statement from the UAE’s foreign ministry, adding that it “reserves its full and legitimate right to respond to these attacks.”

Elsewhere, two foreign workers were injured in an attack on a residential building in the Omani coastal province of Bukha, according to a statement from an unnamed security source quoted by the state-run Oman News Agency. Authorities were investigating the incident but did not elaborate on the perpetrator.

The U.K.’s Maritime Trade Operations Center reported on Monday that a commercial vessel was on fire off the coast of the UAE, while a South Korean bulk carrier ship said it suffered an explosion and a fire in its engine room and the cause was being investigated.

Bulos reported from Beirut, Wilner from Washington.

NEW rules will now allow airlines in the UK to axe flights without repercussions this summer due to ongoing fears of a jet fuel crisis.

The Department for Transport has unveiled new measures which will allow airlines to cancel flights up to two weeks in advance, without losing their airport slots.

Instead, airlines will be able to group passengers onto other flights that same day, and operate fewer routes a day.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said it would “give families long-term certainty and avoid unnecessary disruption at the departure gate this summer“

While this is said to be “protecting summer holidays” it could see passengers forced onto flights at completely different times that they had booked.

Which? Travel editor Rory Boland said: “It’s not fair for the rules to now be bent in favour of airlines and potentially leave passengers holding the bill.

STRAIT TALK

European airlines could go bust by September if fuel crisis continues

PLANE EXPLAIN

Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet, TUI, BA and Virgin – UK airlines on the fuel crisis

“Many passengers will understand that disruptions can occur and may be happy to travel a few hours or a day later, but for those on short trips or connecting flights it could mean the trip is no longer worthwhile.

“Before any changes are made, passengers need cast-iron assurances that their rights will not be weakened and that airlines cannot use reform as cover to shift the cost of disruption onto travellers.”

However, it has been backed by Airlines UK, which represents UK carriers, as they said it would “avoid unnecessary flying and continue operating as efficiently as possible while protecting connectivity for passengers and trade”.

While jet fuel shortages – caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are yet to massively effect UK airlines, many others around the world have ben formed to axe flights.

According to Cirium, two million seats have been scrapped across May, with airlines including Lufthansa, Air New Zealand and United just some affected.

Here’s what all the UK airlines are saying about cancelled flights and fuel surcharges.

Budget airlines have spoken amid warnings that the UK faces greater exposure to jet fuel shortages due to the Middle East conflict

Following warnings from a leading analyst over potential jet fuel shortages that could hit the UK during the summer, Europe’s biggest budget airlines have stated they remain confident in their ability to keep flights running as normal throughout the peak holiday season.

Ano Kuhanathan, head of corporate research at insurer Allianz, has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leaves Britain considerably more exposed than other European countries to supply disruptions. Roughly three quarters of Europe’s jet fuel comes from the Middle East and passes through the vital shipping lane.

He explained: “The UK is Europe’s most structurally exposed market to jet fuel shortages, relying heavily on imports to meet aviation demand and running persistent refining kerosene deficit, leaving it particularly vulnerable to supply shocks.”

Despite these concerns, senior figures at Britain’s top budget airlines have voiced confidence in their capacity to deliver a full flight schedule throughout the summer.

A spokesperson for Jet2 said: “We remain in continual dialogue with our fuel suppliers, as is standard practice. Based on the conversations we have been having, we see no reason not to look forward to operating our scheduled programme of flights and holidays as normal.”

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The announcement comes in the wake of a separate warning from Heathrow airport on Wednesday, which stated it anticipates passenger numbers for the remainder of the year to be impacted by the ongoing situation in the Middle East. Laura Lindsay, spokesperson for the price-comparison site Skyscanner, suggested that travel demand is changing rather than vanishing. She told The Independent’s daily travel podcast: “We know that people do still want to get away. It may be reduced internationally and increased domestically, for example.”

Jet2 has revealed that holidaymakers are increasingly making last-minute bookings since the outbreak of the Iran conflict amid growing concerns over the impact of the war and fears surrounding jet fuel supply.

The company said summer passenger bookings to date are up 6.2% thanks to expansion across its airline and package holiday operations, but in a sign of rising unease among travellers, it disclosed that the “booking profile has become increasingly close to departure” due to the Middle East conflict.

It stated it is well shielded from the fuel cost surge triggered by the Iran war for the crucial summer period, adding it is “maintaining frequent dialogue with our fuel suppliers and airport partners on fuel supply”.

Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive, said that “the risk of ‌a supply disruption is receding”, with no disruption risk before the end of June. However, he pointed out that the UK faces greater vulnerability compared to other major nations. EasyJet has confirmed it intends to run “a full schedule across its network”. Garry Wilson, chief executive of easyJet Holidays, said: “Our operations remain unaffected, so customers can be confident that not only will their holiday go ahead as planned, but there will be no surprise extra payments.”

Yvonne Moynihan, managing director of Wizz Air UK, said: “We have just launched our biggest-ever network from the UK and in particular from Luton.

“Despite the challenging geopolitical crisis, business goes on as usual. In airlines, we are well used to crises, so we are resilient and we’re well adapted.

“For low-cost airlines like Wizz in the UK, we don’t see any shortage of fuel.”

The airline boss explained that if a shortage were to emerge in the UK, Wizz Air could source fuel from alternative countries – a tactic known as “tankering”.

“We can take more fuel than is required in those destinations,” she said. “We can even fly to other countries and and pit-stop, if you will, if we need additional fuel

“But we’re not seeing an Armageddon situation. We have fuel supply. We have other mechanisms for uplifting fuel.” Wizz Air is Europe’s third-largest budget airline, behind Ryanair and easyJet.

Jet2, easyJet and TUI have all committed to not imposing any additional charges on passengers for fuel price increases.

April 30 (UPI) — Oil prices briefly topped $126 a barrel in Asian trade overnight as markets reacted to news the United States might resume its military offensive against Iran and fears the Hormuz Strait might remain closed for much longer than anticipated.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged to $126.31, its highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, after a report that U.S. military commanders were pitching a campaign of “short and powerful” strikes to U.S. President Donald Trump, to force Iran back to the negotiating table.

The price retreated to around $120 by the time markets in Europe opened on Thursday and continued to fall through the morning. The Brent contract for June delivery was trading at $113.91 a barrel in mid-afternoon trade in London, while American crude for June delivery was changing hands at $104.82.

Oil prices have already elevated since the war began on Feb. 28 and began climbing further on Wednesday after Trump met with executives of U.S. oil companies the previous day about how to deal with supply disruption from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has vowed it will continue until the United States’ blockade of its ports is lifted.

The group discussed “steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize impact on American consumers,” a White House official said.

Around 25% of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait and the prospect of it remaining effectively closed for months has set alarm bells ringing in markets as traders’ faith in an early resolution fades and “the reality of the supply situation” sets in.

“The breakdown of talks between the U.S. and Iran, along with President Trump reportedly rejecting Iran’s proposal for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has the market losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows,” said William Patterson, ING’s Singapore-based head of commodities strategy.

Trump has said he believes the regime in Tehran will blink first, saying they were less afraid of the bombing than the blockade, with U.S. officials banking it will force Iran to shutter oil production because the oil has nowhere to go and the country lacks sufficient storage facilities.

Government spoke out to passengers booked with carriers like Ryanair, easyJet, Jet2 and Wizz Airs amid fears of fuel supply disruption and potential flight cancellations

The Government this afternoon issued a statement to passengers across the UK amid growing concerns over jet fuel shortages and the prospect of flight cancellations. The Department for Transport stepped in to respond following warnings from the European Union.

EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said this week: “Unfortunately, it’s very likely that many people’s holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets.”

He added: “Even if we do everything we can do, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there. [Currently] it is primarily a crisis of prices and not yet a crisis of supply, but unfortunately we cannot be sure to prevent a crisis of supply, especially on jet fuel in the future, if the crisis continues.”

Earlier today, President Trump suggested the Iran situation could drag on for weeks, stating he ‘wouldn’t rush’ a deal. The DfT then issued direct guidance to passengers booked with carriers including Jet2, Ryanair, Wizz, easyJet and British Airways.

It said: “There is no current need for passengers to change their travel plans. UK airlines buy jet fuel in advance, and airports maintain stocks to support their resilience. The government is working closely with the aviation industry to monitor risks and minimise disruption to passengers.”

“If your flight is cancelled, you have clear legal rights, including the right to a full refund or re-routing. Read this factsheet for the full picture on the current situation and what it means for you.”

Is there a shortage of jet fuel in the UK?

DtT said: “UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel. It is typically bought in advance, with airports and their suppliers keeping stocks of bunkered fuel to support their resilience.”

Do you need to change your travel plans?

Officials explained: “There is no current need to change upcoming travel plans. Government regularly meets with industry to monitor risks, understand pressures and ensure clear communication with passengers, should circumstances change.

“We recognise that families may be concerned, and that aviation and tourism businesses are operating in challenging global conditions. We are working hand‑in‑hand with industry to help flights keep operating.

“We advise passengers to continue checking with their airlines before they travel, and to check the FCDO travel advice for the latest updates. You should also ensure you have appropriate travel insurance.”

How is the government protecting passengers?

Under UK law, if your flight is cancelled, you are entitled to either a full refund or to be booked onto an alternative flight if you:

• depart from an airport in the UK on any airline
• arrive at an airport in the UK on an EU or UK airline
• arrive at an airport in the EU on a UK airline

For more information about your rights, you can:

What is government doing?

The UK Government said: “Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we have been closely monitoring UK jet fuel stocks and working with airlines, airports and fuel suppliers to ensure passengers keep moving and businesses are supported.

“We continue to plan for a range of contingencies, while focusing on securing a long lasting and workable solution to get shipping flowing freely again through the Strait of Hormuz.”

How are airlines being supported?

In terms of carriers the DfT said: “At some UK airports, airlines are given scheduled times known as ‘slots’ in which to take off or land.

“Under normal rules, airlines must use at least 80% of their allocated slots during a season to keep them for the following year. If they fall below this threshold, those slots can be reassigned to another airline. This is known as the ‘use it or lose it’ rule.

“Airport Coordination Limited, the independent body that manages slot allocation at UK airports, has updated its guidance so that airlines will not lose their slots if fuel shortages prevent them from flying. Airlines can now apply for an exemption from the ‘use it or lose it’ rule in these circumstances.

“This means airlines can focus on minimising disruption for passengers, rather than feeling pressure to operate flights purely to protect their slots.”

JET2 has issued an update to all travellers about increasing flight fares and holiday prices.

The UK’s biggest tour operator has confirmed that it will not be raising flights or holidays prices to cover increased costs caused by the fuel crisis.

The announcement comes as the ongoing fuel crisis has resulted in a number of airlines increasing their flight prices, including Virgin Atlantic.

The update applies to all flights and holidays with the provider, booked through any channel – whether that be online, via the app or via an independent travel agent.

It means that when passengers book with Jet2, the price that is shown for their holiday or flight, will be the price they pay.

Holidaymakers will still need to pay tourist taxes, which is usually done once you are on holiday at the resort or directly to your accommodation provider.

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Steve Heapy, CEO of Jet2 said: “Holidaymakers should have every right to book their hard-earned break in the sun, without worrying about being hit with additional costs, and they can have that complete assurance when they book a flight or holiday with Jet2.

“As a result of today’s announcement, customers booking with Jet2 know that they are locking in their price without additional cost surprises later and we strongly believe that is the right thing to do by them.

“Ahead of a busy summer this is yet more evidence of why, on top of our incredible holidays and award-winning customer service, nothing beats a Jet2holiday.”

In a previous statement, a Jet2 spokesperson also told Sun Travel: “We remain in continual dialogue with our fuel suppliers, as is standard practice.

“Based on the conversations we have been having, we see no reason not to look forward to operating our scheduled programme of flights and holidays as normal.

“We understand that our customers work and save very hard for their holidays, and we are looking forward to making sure that they enjoy their award-winning Jet2holidays.”

The announcement comes as a number of other airlines have issued statements regarding upcoming flights and holidays.

TUI holidays confirmed that bookings have not been impacted or cancelled by the fuel crisis.

A TUI spokesperson told Sun Travel: “We’re closely monitoring the developing situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on global aviation fuel supplies.

“At present, we’re not anticipating disruption to our flight schedules or holiday programmes from fuel shortages.”

Budget airline easyJet has also said that flights are currently not impacted by the fuel crisis.

A spokesperson for the airline told Sun Travel that there was “no disruption to flights” and “no plans to make any changes to our flying schedule”.

However, earlier this week, easyJet’s CEO for Spain and Portugal did comment that it was “difficult to see” what would happen in the next few weeks.

Here’s a full rundown of what all the UK airlines have said about fuel crisis concerns.

And in other flight news, a major UK airport is set for May bank holiday weekend travel chaos as staff are to walk out.

Plus, Ryanair is axing thousands of flights from a European airport this summer.

WASHINGTON — Polls show that record numbers of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Anxious voters find no shortage of corroboration. Seeming proof of national decline is everywhere–the savings-and-loan bailout, an imperial Congress, overpaid executives at the top of underperforming companies, record murder rates in cities, declining school quality, an intractable drug epidemic, spiraling health-care costs and a flat economy riddled with deep pockets of regional recession. We haven’t felt good about ourselves, our country or our future since the Gulf War.

President George Bush’s decline in the polls mirrors this trend. As long as voters were concerned about foreign policy, his high standing compensated for lower ratings on domestic affairs. The Cold War’s end has changed the issue mix of presidential races forever.

The recession is an immediate problem, but that will decline in importance when the growth most economists predict resumes this spring. But the recession masks a deeper fear that our post-Cold War inheritance is a declining standard of living, with high-paying jobs and prosperity flowing overseas. That fear will not recede quickly.

With the recession ending by spring, campaign planners will be tempted to heave sighs of relief and run a status-quo candidacy against the uncertainties of a switch to the Democrats. That would be a serious mistake.

For Bush will never have more fertile ground to lay out a new GOP agenda that addresses the deep fear voters have about the future of America. He can capitalize on the public’s thirst for certainty by laying out a set of ambitious goals–in government, in jobs, in schools and in social progress.

He can start with government. A recent Gallup poll shows 20% blame Bush for the economy’s condition, but 54% blame Congress. Support for term limits and a Trumanesque campaign to fix what’s wrong with Congress will not only pay political dividends, but give him a governing coalition for a second term. Beginning with this week’s State of the Union, Bush should challenge Congress to pass his economic recovery program within 100 days and return it to him for signature. He should also push legislation on health-care reform, education and crime by similarly challenging Congress. To dramatize the push for excellence, he might consider national middle-class merit scholarships for college.

Nor should he give up on trade, despite the Japan trip. Presidential involvement in a few trade confrontations will make his claim to fight for American jobs more credible. Where unfair trading practices are found, executive action on import relief should be swift.

By establishing his vision for the post-Cold War future, contrasting his own activism with Democratic and congressional obstruction, showing that he thinks free trade should benefit us as well as our partners and fighting hard for the middle class–in essence charting a course the country thinks takes us in the right direction and gets us off the wrong track–he’ll win not only reelection but a mandate.

It’s also important to understand this is not the 1984 reelection. Compression of the primary calendar means there are fewer days between the first Iowa caucuses, Feb. 10, and Super Tuesday, March 10, and the Democratic winner-take-all rules could give a front-runner enough momentum to be the apparent nominee by April. There is little prospect for a protracted Democratic primary battle like 1984’s between Gary Hart and Walter F. Mondale.

Because the Democrats won’t be tearing each other apart as long, Bush should engage the Democrats early. But he needs to shore up his own vulnerabilities before he begins to contrast with the Democratic nominee. He needs to sharpen his middle-class message, starting with the economy and people’s fears about the future.

This should be done well before the summer Democratic convention, when the Democratic ticket will have a solid week of national television coverage to engage in Bush-bashing.

It’s also critical to understand this is not 1988. The Democratic nominee will also have learned a lesson from Michael S. Dukakis–define your candidacy before your opponent gets a chance to define it negatively for you. It’s highly unlikely the ’92 Democratic nominee will be kept on the defensive for months as was Dukakis.

This year’s presidential election takes place in politically uncharted territory. It is the first contest of the post-Cold War era, probably the last election with a World War II veteran running for President. World events, from Eastern Europe’s velvet revolutions of 1989 to last summer’s failed Soviet coup, have irrevocably reshaped America’s political landscape.

Foreign policy and defense no longer matter much to voters. Communism’s death also buried anti-communism as an issue. With few external threats, Americans see old relationships through a new prism. They supported the post-war alliance with Japan for mutual security; without the Cold War, that same relationship looks one-sided.

To win reelection, it’s critical to understand what this dramatic shift means. The old rules are gone–now is the time for a new political order in American campaigns. For four decades, we’ve elected presidents against a Cold War backdrop. Now that we’ve won the Cold War, we need a new presidential agenda that’s relevant for the ‘90s.

KERRY Katona has revealed she’s experiencing speech difficulties after she was rushed to hospital over stroke fears.

The Atomic Kitten singer said she was with her partner Paolo Margaglione and her daughter Heidi who noticed that her mum’s face didn’t ‘appear right’.

Kerry, 45, was in London at the time of the incident, watching her eldest daughter Molly in a new play, when she fell unwell midway through the performance.

The TV personality was then rushed to hospital in an ambulance where it was treated “as a stroke”.

Although it was later ruled out as a stroke and most likely a result of stress, the mother-of-five said she’s still dealing with aftereffects.

Writing in her New column, she said: “I know I’m talking differently and I know my face looks different after my suspected stroke, but it’s actually loads better.

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“It comes and goes.”

Kerry admitted that the terrifying ordeal had sent her anxiety through the roof.

She continued: “I’ve just got to try and not think about it, because I’m the worst hypochondriac in the world.

“It’s awful for my family, I think they’re all fed up and sick of me at this point.

“I have severe health anxiety, so when I start reading all the comments and I start learning all these new things that could be wrong, it makes me truly panic.”

Kerry opened up about the hospital dash earlier this month.

She told the Mirror: “I went to the toilet and noticed my face wasn’t right.

“And Heidi was like, ‘Mum, what’s wrong with your face?’ I started panicking. I discreetly left, went to my hotel and asked to see a doctor. I told the staff, ‘Something’s not right.’”

The mum-of-five was subsequently rushed to hospital in an ambulance.

“I got there, and they said, ‘We’re treating this as a stroke,’ so they blue-lit me in an ambulance from St Thomas’ to King’s College Hospital,” explains Kerry.

“They were shining lights in my eyes while my face and speech were getting worse.

“An hour ago I was watching our Molly in a play and now I’m being treated for a stroke. What the actual f**k? It just shows how quickly things can change.”

She said she felt ‘really scared’ and feared the worst but a stroke was later ruled out after a CT scan.

The Celebs Go Dating star revealed that her health scare was down to ‘delayed stress’ that can affect a person after they’ve ‘found peace’.

Following the incident, Kerry jetted off on holiday to Spain with her family to celebrate Dylan-Jorge’s 12th birthday but said she would see follow-up care when back in the country.

Kerry has Molly, 24, and Lilly-Sue, 23, with ex Brian McFadden; Heidi, 19, and Max, 17, with ex Mark Croft; and daughter Dylan-Jorge (known as DJ), 12, with late-husband George Kay.

Kerry exclusively told The Sun how things have been looking up for her ever since coupling up with new beau Paolo – 12 years her junior.

“Paolo is just a complete one-off,” she said.

“I’ve never met a human being like him. It actually makes me anxious, because I keep thinking it’s just too good to be true. I get emotional talking about him.

“I am so lucky I found him. I feel loved and wanted. I’ve never felt like that. I don’t think I’ve ever really truly been in proper love until I met Paolo. I don’t think I realised how starved I was of affection.

“I wasn’t even looking for a boyfriend or to get married again – I couldn’t think of anything worse. I wanted a pay cheque, exposure and a therapist [from the show]. Then I met him and thought, ‘You’re different.’”

OFFICIALS have warned that there is just weeks of jet fuel supplies left before airlines start running out.

Earlier this week, the head of the International Energy Agency warned that vital supplies remain blocked by conflict in Iran – as a result, many airlines have already started axing routes.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is holding up major supply chains which has led to a huge hike in fuel costs – and shortages.

ACI Europe, which represents European airports, said the key trade route must open within three weeks or fuel reserves will run drastically low.

In response, a number of major airlines have been cancelling flights in preparation for shortages – with thousands affected.

Here are the major eight airlines that have already cut back on their routes…

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United Airlines

United Airlines said that five per cent of flights would be cancelled in the second and third quarters of 2026.

With up to 5,000 flights a month – working out to around 4,000 domestic and 800 international routes – this means it affects around 250 flights a month.

United Airlines has the world’s largest airline fleet with more than 1,075 aircraft.

Scandinavian Airlines

SAS was the first major airline in Europe to axe flights because of of the cost of fuel going up.

It said in mid-March that it would cancel 1,000 flights throughout April.

Lufthansa

Lufthansa‘s subsidiary airline CityLine is to cease operations due to both the Iran crisis and ongoing strike action.

The division ran business flights between European airports but will ground its entire fleet of 27 aircraft. 

Flight routes typically connected London to Frankfurt and Munich.

It will also cut six planes from its international fleet after the summer holiday season, warning that the cutbacks could last into winter.

KLM

Dutch airline KLM has cancelled 160 flights for the coming month, but has said it will affect less than 1 per cent of its schedule

The airline insists there is no shortage of jet fuel, saying the move is purely down to spiralling costs.

A KLM spokesperson said: “Passengers affected by these changes will be rebooked onto the next available flight.

“KLM expects a busy May holiday period and is making sure passengers can travel to their holiday destinations as planned.”

Cathay Pacific

Cathay Pacific has confirmed that two per cent of passenger flights will be cancelled from May 16 to June 30.

This will affect a number of regional routes, as well as longer-haul connections to destinations across Australia and South Asia.

Its budget airline HK Express is set to cut six per cent of flights due to increased costs.

Air New Zealand

Air New Zealand announced in March that it will be cutting back on flights over the next two months.

Chief Executive of Air New Zealand Nikhil Ravishankar said the airline would see roughly a five per cent reduction in its services which would continue until the beginning of May 2026.

This reduction equates to around 1,100 flights which in turn will affect 44,000 passengers out of its 1.9million.

Norse

Norse Atlantic Airways has removed all flights to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) from its summer schedule.

A spokesperson said: “Due to the continued increase in fuel constraint risks, fuel prices, and the resulting impact on our operating costs, we have had to make the difficult decision to suspend our LAX operations this summer, May to October.”

Norse operated a summer route from London Gatwick to LA.

British Airways

British Airways will drop its service from London Heathrow to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia permanently from April 24, 2026.

The airline had been operating a four flights a week service since November 2024.

BA said the terminating of the service was due to a shift in demand rather than fuel costs as hasn’t axed any flights because of that so far.

Virgin Airways

Virgin Atlantic announced earlier this month that it would be permanently scrapping its London flight to Riyadh from April 7, 2026.

It said some of the reasons were the “evolving situation in the Middle East” and “operating costs.”

Here’s why you should book your summer holiday now – easyJet boss says.

And here are the European holiday destinations Brits are flocking to instead of Turkey and Egypt due to Iran crisis.

WASHINGTON — It was hard to miss President Trump’s very public spat with Pope Leo XIV this week.

The split was the first time in modern memory that an American president has so openly badmouthed a sitting pontiff, or, for that matter, distributed an image depicting himself as Jesus Christ. Critics cried “blasphemy!” even as supporters continued to stand behind the man whose presidency, some argue, was God sent.

Students of American history will recall an earlier incident that pitted papal and presidential authority against each other. The concern: that a president would align himself too closely to the church, or even take orders from the pope.

That anxiety seeped into the 1960 presidential campaign of John F. Kennedy, whose eventual victory would make him the first Catholic president.

Back then, Kennedy was constantly fending off accusations from Protestant ecclesiastic types who were wary that his nomination meant the pontiff, John XXIII, was already packing his bags for a move into the White House.

President John F. Kennedy meets with Pope Paul VI at the Vatican in July 1963, one month after Paul succeeded John XXIII as pontiff.

(Bettmann Archive / Getty Images)

The issue was so pronounced that 150 clergymen and laypeople formed Citizens for Religious Freedom, which in a pamphlet warned, “It is inconceivable to us that a Roman Catholic President would not be under extreme pressure by the hierarchy of his church to accede to its policies and demands.”

One particularly loud voice among the ministers was the Rev. Norman Vincent Peale, a popular and influential pastor and author. Peale was especially disturbed by Kennedy’s prospects.

“Our American culture is at stake,” he said at a meeting of the ministers. “I don’t say it won’t survive, but it won’t be what it was.”

The group asked Kennedy to “drop by Houston” to make clear his views on faith and government. He agreed, making a televised speech at the Rice Hotel, where he famously spelled out his firm opinions on the separation of church and state.

“I am not the Catholic candidate for president,” Kennedy told the group. “I am the Democratic Party’s nominee for president who happens to be Catholic.”

Time magazine reflected on the address some years later, concluding that the speech had gone so well for Kennedy “that many felt the dramatic moment was an important part of his victory.”

Since then, modern presidents have occasionally found themselves at odds with the Vatican. Typically Republican presidents would hear from the pope about foreign wars, while Democratic presidents were derided over abortion policies.

But such disagreements tended to be handled with the decorous language of diplomacy.

President George W. Bush presents Pope John Paul II with the Presidential Medal of Freedom in Rome on June 4 , 2004. The pope reminded Bush of the Vatican’s opposition to the war in Iraq. Bush praised him as a “devoted servant of God.”

(Eric Vandeville/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

Then came Trump, who is now being accused of openly mocking the Catholic faith and the 1st Amendment. He called Leo weak on crime and foreign policy, among other things. A self-described nondenominational Christian who says his favorite book is the Bible, Trump’s hasn’t shied from bashing the pontiff, nor has he hesitated to blur the line separating church and state.

Where Kennedy argued for an absolute separation, Trump has advanced a model of religious resurgence, promising “pews will be fuller, younger and more faithful than they have been in years.” Through initiatives including the “America Prays” program launched last year, the White House has sought to bring “bring back God” by inviting millions of Americans to prayer sessions. The webpage for the program focuses features only Christian Scripture.

“From the earliest days of the republic, faith in God has been the ultimate source of the nation’s strength,” Trump said at a National Prayer Breakfast in February.

President Trump, then-Vice President Mike Pence and faith leaders say a prayer during the signing of a proclamation in the Oval Office on Sept. 1, 2017. .

(Alex Wong / Getty Images)

In the United States, the Catholic Church historically has “loved the 1st Amendment” and its guarantee of religious liberty and, as a result, largely kept some distance from government, according to Tom Reese, a Jesuit priest and religious commentator. After its failures attempting to influence monarchs and politicians in Europe, the Catholic Church “didn’t want the government interfering with them and knew that it wasn’t their right to interfere with the government,” Reese said.

Kennedy loved the 1st Amendment too. He put it above his own religious beliefs, and said as much on his way to the White House.

“I would not look with favor upon a president working to subvert the 1st Amendment’s guarantees of religious liberty,” he said. “Nor would our system of checks and balances permit him to do so.”

Pope Leo XIV meets with members of the community in Algiers at the Basilica of Our Lady of Africa on April 13, 2026.

(Vatican Pool via Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — Eric Swalwell’s downfall has raised the possibility of a broader reckoning on Capitol Hill as congressional staffers, reporters and opposition researchers race to verify long-standing rumors of a sordid underground culture among the city’s most powerful.

Former lawmakers across the political spectrum have warned for years of a hushed congressional bacchanal marked by inappropriate revelry and sexual misconduct. But a sense of growing momentum gripped Congress on Tuesday, as Democrats grappled with Swalwell’s resignation and Republicans called for other lawmakers to face scrutiny.

The 72-hour collapse of Swalwell’s political career has shifted attention not only to his closest associates in Congress, but also to a larger set of sitting lawmakers from both parties suspected of lurid sexual activity. Several members have claimed that Swalwell’s alleged behavior was an open secret amid a cacophony of rumors on social media of other potential offenders.

“I think that many people knew about this for a while,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Florida Republican, said in an interview with The Times.

Luna, who planned to lead the charge to expel Swalwell before he resigned, alleged that young staffers would talk among one another about Swalwell’s conduct. Lawmakers should have done more to approach him about the rumors, she said.

Multiple current and former female staffers who spoke with The Times described a broader culture of warning one another about lawmakers with reputations for inappropriate conduct.

But the warnings, passed privately among junior aides, have focused on “sleazy” activity and boundary-crossing behavior, said one former legislative aide, who asked to remain anonymous. Whispers about sleazy behavior generally do not meet the coverage threshold for traditional newsrooms, which are bound by strict ethical standards.

Another former aide said that quiet guidance shared among female staffers focused on behavior that is legal, but nevertheless viewed as unprofessional and unbecoming of members of Congress — a line that has prevented many from speaking out publicly.

Now, a race is on for leverage between two political parties facing comparable strategic risks — each with members facing growing questions over their alleged conduct — and for scoops among news outlets, seeking to break the story first.

The Monday resignations of Swalwell and Texas Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who faced his own sex scandal, was also forcing lawmakers to address the issue publicly. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) — one of Swalwell’s closest friends in Congress — answered questions from reporters at length Tuesday, telling them he should have confronted Swalwell when he heard rumors about his behavior.

“You let your guard down. I let him into my circle. … I deeply regret it,” Gallego said.

He denied knowing about Swalwell’s alleged misconduct when asked about the behavior.

“Look, we socialized. We went out. But I never saw him engage in any of the predatory behavior, harassment, sexual assault,” Gallego said.

Notably quiet was President Trump, who has faced sexual assault accusations of his own and frequently parried with Swalwell throughout his presidency. Although Trump posted an article reporting Swalwell’s resignation on social media, he has not commented on the matter in his own words.

The unraveling scandal comes at a time when lawmakers have come together across party lines to push for transparency in the case of Jeffrey Epstein, the late sex offender and alleged sex trafficker whose network of powerful associates included Democrats and Republicans alike.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, details of the Swalwell scandal continued to unfold Tuesday, as a Beverly Hills woman accused him of drugging and raping her in 2018. The Times could not immediately reach his attorney; he previously denied allegations of rape and sexual misconduct made by multiple women in published accounts last week.

Sex scandals are not a new phenomenon on Capitol Hill, which has seen over a dozen members embroiled in controversy over the last decade, including Katie Hill of California, Cory Mills and Matt Gaetz of Florida, and Blake Farenthold of Texas, among others.

But several prominent former members — including former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy — have warned of a more widespread cultural problem.

“Every member in Congress knows not to let any young staffer get around Swalwell or Matt Gaetz. It’s not a secret there,” McCarthy said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

Luna had pressed lawmakers to address alleged sexual misconduct on Capitol Hill. In February, she called on the “predatory freaks” in Congress to leave office as she complained about the process to get ethical complaints handled.

“It pisses me off because while some of us are actually working and busting our asses, these clowns are sexually harassing their own staff, doing illegal crap, insider trading etc,” Luna wrote at the time.

Luna said Monday that she was encouraged to see bipartisan support for expelling Swalwell and Gonzales.

A longtime staffer who spoke on condition of anonymity said Tuesday that allegations against Swalwell have sparked conversations about how to do more to help staffers report sexual misconduct, such as reforming procedural rules that would allow staffers to report any of their concerns directly to ethics panels, and about the need for ethics investigations to move more quickly.

“Congress has a short-term memory, that is the difficulty here,” the staffer said. “After these guys leave their seats, there needs to be a concerted and consistent effort for reforms to be established and be made permanent.”

The airline has issued guidance online after a passenger shared their concerns

EasyJet Holidays has responded after passengers shared concerns online that they may miss their flights due to long queues at popular European airports. As the European Union’s (EU) new Entry/Exit System (EES) continues to roll out across the continent, passengers face long waits because it requires non-EU travellers to register biometric data, such as fingerprints and photos, on arrival, replacing passport stamps.

The new automated digital border system launched on October 12, 2025, and is expected to be fully operational in the Schengen Area by April 10, 2026. A statement on Gov.uk reads: “EES may take each passenger extra time to complete, so be prepared to wait longer than usual at the border.”

The countries in the Schengen area include: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. Many airports are reportedly facing long border check queues due to the new system.

The Republic of Ireland and Cyprus are not part of the Schengen area, so EES is not required when travelling to either country. Gov.uk adds: “You may also be asked to provide either your fingerprint or photo when you exit the Schengen area. The checks may take slightly longer than previously, so be prepared to wait during busy times.”

People have taken to social media to share their concerns about missing their flights due to long passport control queues, including EasyJet passengers. One woman, called Jenny, who goes by the username @MunchkinMumsie on X, posted about her worries of not getting through border control on time for her upcoming flight home.

She said: “Hi @EasyJetholidays, I’m returning home from Palma tomorrow, our coach transfer is picking us up at 12.30, our flight is at 15.40 and we are 90 minutes away from the airport. I’m worried this will not give us enough time to get through the airport with my child, will this be ok?”

A spokesperson replied: “Hello Jenny, thanks for reaching out. Our transport providers are the local experts and will use their knowledge of the destination and airport experience to calculate your transfer pick up time to ensure your journey to the airport is stress free and that you arrive with enough time to drop off your bags and clear security. Do let us know if you’d prefer to make your own way, and we’ll be happy to update our suppliers! – Alex.”

Jenny then asked: “If we catch your transfer and don’t get through in time, do you cover all our expenses and book our alternate flight home?” The spokesperson told her: “Yes – our dedicated On Holiday Support teams will be more than happy to assist with rescue flights if required – Alex.”

Jenny responded with: “Thank you, there are lots of posts on Mallorca travel forums of the children’s queue for border control at Palma being 2-3 hours long. It seems crazy you are not arranging transfers for families to get to the airport earlier.”

Updating Jenny with guidance, the spokesperson issued an alert about ‘missed flights’ and what happens. They told her: “If we are alerted to any flights being missed, we will work alongside our in destination teams to address the issue at hand. As it stands, our customers have not advised us of any major issues with flights being missed – Alex.”

In another post in the thread, the spokesperson added: “Please do let us know if you are looking to make your own way to the airport on this occasion, and we’ll be more than happy to update our suppliers. We are unable to assist with adjusting your pick-up time – Alex.”

A statement on Palma Airport’s website reads: “The EES is mainly designed to save time and improve border security. It automates passport checks, identifies travellers who overstay, and helps detect fraudulent documents. It also supports authorities in preventing and investigating terrorism and other serious crimes.”

When passengers find out they might be late to their boarding gate, they should tell their airline using their app, email, or phone. They can also ask airport staff for assistance, since some airports have electric cars or allow passengers with short connections or flights leaving soon to skip to the front of the line.

It is advised that passengers arrive at the airport early to handle any unexpected delays at security or passport control. A spokesperson for ABTA, the association of travel agents and tour operators, says: “We’re advising passengers to go straight to passport control as soon as you have gone through check-in and security; that way you get the EES checks out of the way as early as possible.

“We’re also advising passengers to follow their transport provider’s advice on when to arrive at airports/ports etc. If flying, the usual rule is to arrive at the airport for a flight from Europe at least two hours before, so we’d encourage people to apply that as a minimum, but to also check with their airline and airport.”

April 9 (UPI) — Oil prices were on the rise again on Thursday amid concerns a “fragile” cease-fire between the United States, Iran and Israel could unravel over continued fighting in Lebanon and few signs the Strait of Hormuz was about to reopen to shipping.

The Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate international benchmarks were both trading around 4% higher at $98.62 and $99.94 a barrel respectively in early afternoon trade on Thursday, after prices plunged Wednesday on the announcement of a two-week cessation of hostilities.

Share prices in Asia also fell overnight with the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo giving up some of the gains made on Wednesday with European stocks following suit when exchanges opened Thursday morning.

The market reacted to warnings from both sides that they were prepared to resume military action if the other did not adhere to truce terms neither party accepts are the same, with Tehran saying Israeli strikes on Lebanon were a “grave violation” and Washington saying Iran must comply with the “real” agreement.

There was also growing concern over the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, a key term of the agreement which must be implemented to ease the disruption to global oil supply that has sent prices soaring.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told BBC Radio on Thursday that Iran would “provide security for safe passage” through the sea lane via which around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas is exported, but only “after the United States withdraws this aggression” — an apparent reference to the Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

He stressed that while the 21-mile wide strait had been “open for millennia” prior to the war, it was not international waters and that shipping only transited on the goodwill of Iran and Oman” — the sovereign countries on either side of the channel.

Khatibzadeh dodged questioning over how safe vessels would be and whether they would be required to pay tolls, saying Tehran wanted a “peaceful” arrangement, but that it would not permit “misuse” of the Gulf by warships.

However, London-headquartered shipping brokerage SSY Global said the Iranian navy had issued a warning to ships in the Persian Gulf that any vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without permission “will be targeted and destroyed.”

Announcing the cease-fire on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the deal hinged on the “complete, immediate, and safe opening” of the strait, a point pressed home on Wednesday by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who said while there were signs the process was starting Iran was required to fully open the strait.

“The president is very, very clear the deal is a cease-fire, a negotiation. That’s what we give, and what they give is that straits are going to be reopened. If we don’t see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”

The White House announced Wednesday that Vance would lead the U.S. negotiating team at talks due to get underway in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday.

Khatibzadeh said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, would head up the Iranian side.

The talks will try to reconcile two very different visions of the way forward — a 15-point U.S. plan and a 10-point Iranian plan — with Iran’s nuclear program which the Americans want totally scrapped but Iran insists on retaining for civilian energy purposes — topping the agenda.

Gemma Collins and Craig Charles entered the I’m A Celeb All Stars show in dramatic fashion with one of the worst trials ever seen on ITV

Camp late entries Craig Charles and Gemma Collins took part in an epic eating trial called Gut Instincts that pushed them both to the limit. At one stage Craig was sick and during another course Gemma claimed she had to quit that course as she was “going to be hospitalised” if she finished the food.

Before the I’m A Celeb games began, 45-year-old Gemma pleaded with the group: “Just give me a chance guys, please. I’ve got a different mindset this time, don’t write me off.”

Hosts Ant and Dec told Craig and Gemma that their first task will be an eating trial, after which they will split to join separate camps. The main Camp selected Craig to join them, assigning Gemma to Savannah Scrub.

During the trial, Craig and Gemma had to privately decide how many servings of dishes to eat. The player who commits to the highest number of servings then had to eat them to win points, but if they failed their rival could try to eat their food to steal the points.

Dishes included Fish Eye Pie, Terror-rine with blended chicken intestine and Brain Freeze – which was made of Springbok brains. This final one caused Gemma a lot of problems.

Shocked by the sight of one of the dishes, Craig said: “Have you ramped this up because it doesn’t look that bad on the telly?” Dec replied: “This is the Legends.”

The pair made their way through the lengthy menu, and after six of the seven courses, Craig has 12 points and Gemma 10.

The trial will finish tonight(Wednesday) in a dramatic climax that left the campmates in disbelief, as both contestants vowed to consume 30 shots each of Bloody Moory Shots – blended bull’s heart and bull’s blood.

Gemma said: “I’m gonna bang the whole tray. I’m doing my best.”

Once they both decided to go for the maximum, Ant and Dec said it would be race to see who finishes them first and wins meals for their camp. But if either is sick they will forfeit the round.

Scarlett Moffat said: “This is amazing, this is unbelievable.”

Like this story? For more of the latest showbiz news and gossip, follow Mirror Celebs on TikTok, Snapchat, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Threads.

The GB News presenter continued working in a pub even after landing his first TV role at 21

GB News host Eamonn Holmes has enjoyed a career in broadcasting for decades but the Irish TV host admits that he almost never gave up his first-ever job.

The TV veteran had such a fondness for his evening job that he continued it well into the early stages of his blossoming career, until his boss eventually urged him to concentrate solely on his television aspirations.

His first television appearance came in 1979 as a reporter and presenter for Ulster Television (UTV) in Northern Ireland, and his career has gone from strength to strength ever since.

Yet Eamonn was so anxious that his TV career might suddenly dry up that he was determined to keep pulling pints while he still could, and he was in absolutely no rush to abandon his bar job before he finally did relinquish the evening role to dedicate himself fully to his television career.

Speaking to the Express. at the Young Chef, Young Waiter, Young Mixologist awards where he was a judge, Eamonn looked back on his career and said: “Nobody in the UK had been given tea time programmes at 21, so when I did, it went in my favour.

“But I was working in a pub, and the head barman said to me, ‘what is this? You serve them up the news until seven o’clock and then you’re in here at 7.30pm’.”

He revealed that his response to his manager at the time was: “But does this TV business ever last?”

The barman boldly assured Eamonn it would, invited him for a drink, and encouraged him to chase his dreams, with Eamonn saying: “That was my last night in the bar.”

Eamonn credits his bar work with helping him break into television, claiming it drew out his personality and showed him how to connect with people.

He said: “It taught me to be more relaxed with a TV audience and how to talk to people in television, so that was amazing. It was a bitb strange, I didn’t know anybody who was in television or presenting, but that’s what happened.”

His breakthrough in Ireland was merely the beginning of his broadcasting journey, transitioning to the BBC in 1986 and subsequently GMTV in 1993, where he remained until 2005, taking on a host of other television roles along the way, including stints at Sky News, BBC show Jet Set, and periodic appearances on GMB.

Eamonn’s latest venture has seen him comfortably settled at GB News, where he fronts the breakfast show.

GB News’s Breakfast Show is on weekdays at 6am

WASHINGTON — Merely two weeks had passed since the Iran war began when Gen. Randy George, the Army’s highest-ranking officer, began sounding an alarm.

Touring a weapons depot in North Carolina, George warned lawmakers present that the conflict’s vast and ever-growing list of targets was straining U.S. capacity — “depleting our stockpiles faster than we can replace them,” as one congressman recalled. Since assuming Army leadership, George had made it his mission to strengthen the nation’s industrial base in anticipation of precisely this moment, when the United States would be engaged in a major war with a formidable adversary.

On Thursday, in a brief phone call, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired George. No reason was given, a U.S. official familiar with the matter told The Times.

The forced departure of George in the middle of a war created yet another blow to morale inside the Pentagon, where multiple officials expressed dismay over the state of the department’s leadership. Over the last year, Hegseth has fired five sitting members of the joint chiefs of staff, with only two holdovers remaining in their posts.

“Whenever you have a change in leadership, military or otherwise, there is bound to be some churn in information management,” one U.S. official said, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “So what you’re doing, in the middle of a war, as we are taking U.S. casualties, is you’re taking out the general in charge of making sure the right people and equipment are flowing into the Middle East.”

Inside the building, officials believe that Hegseth’s next target is Dan Driscoll, the Army secretary and an ally to President Trump. Driscoll has been seen by Hegseth’s aides as outshining the Defense secretary on prominent policy initiatives.

Gen. Randy George, U.S. Army chief of staff, speaks with soldiers during training exercises at Lightning Academy at Schofield Barracks in Honolulu on Nov. 10, 2025.

(Christopher Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

It is a purge that Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill fear could have tangible, detrimental effects on the war effort. Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Joni Ernst of Iowa, all members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, have expressed private concerns over George’s firing, a second U.S. official said.

Forcing out Army leadership responsible for training and equipping its soldiers, and for ensuring weapons stockpiles continue to meet demand, risks bureaucratic chaos and despair in the ranks at a time when the Trump administration is openly considering a ground operation in Iran.

Others in the Pentagon have raised concern over the U.S. military stockpile, including Air Force Secretary Troy Meink, who last month warned at a defense conference that munitions shortages were a concern even before the war began.

“It was something that we were concerned about even before the operation,” Meink said. “It has just been the fact that we couldn’t see the threat evolving and what we’re facing. So we definitely have to improve on that.”

Trump has denied that the United States faces weapons shortages, even after meeting with the nation’s top contractors last month in a push for them to increase — and on some products, quadruple — their output.

“What interceptors we have for Iran is because of Randy George,” the first U.S. official countered. “He continued to work that problem set up through [Thursday]. It’s a problem set he was working in real time.”

Jerry McGinn, director of the Center for the Industrial Base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said U.S. forces have reached a stage in the war where they can pivot away from standoff weapons systems. With Iran’s air defenses largely degraded, they can instead rely on weapons such as laser-guided bombs, helping ease pressure on stockpiles.

But Iran’s downing of two U.S. aircraft on Friday suggests that longer-range weapons may still be necessary.

“When the stockpile is stressed, as it was after Ukraine and then now with Iran, any surge in need leads to a backlog as they try to replenish,” McGinn said.

“The three things they’ve been using a whole lot of are Tomahawks, [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense] and Patriots, and those inventories were already somewhat depleted after Midnight Hammer last summer,” McGinn added. “You can’t crank those out very fast.”

Beyond his role tending to the nation’s “magazine depth” — making sure the military isn’t firing more weapons than it is able to replenish — George also led the Pentagon’s effort to set up a joint task force last year aimed at speeding up the U.S. military’s ability to counter small unmanned aircraft systems, or drones.

The program has proved critical in the war effort. Tehran now relies heavily on its Shahed drones, with its missile production and launch capacity severely diminished.

Acknowledging the Pentagon expulsions, Iran’s embassy in South Africa posted photos on social media Friday x-ing out portraits of several top U.S. military officials fired in recent months.

“Regime change happened successfully,” the Iranians wrote.

Europe’s Red Sea naval task force tells us it is prepared for the resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the region. The Iranian proxy group has already launched several ballistic missile strikes against Israel since joining the ongoing war in the Middle East over the weekend. Now there is growing concern that the Houthis could effectively shut down the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti. Doing so would choke off a flow of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, especially to east, exacerbating a huge spike in oil prices after Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. Having both straits closed at once is something of a ‘sum of all fears’ scenario for the global energy marketplace.

A new Houthi offensive would be a major cudgel for Iran, because it would open a new front in the war and draw in military resources at a time when they are heavily involved in Epic Fury. A potential activation of the Houthis is arguably Tehran’s biggest military card left to play, but just how much control Tehran retains over the Houthis is unclear.

Operation Aspides “maintains a high level of situational awareness and conducts daily assessments of potential risks to freedom of navigation, making necessary operational adjustments where required,” an Aspides official told The War Zone. “In the event of a resumption of Houthi attacks to merchant vessels – which remains a possibility – we are present and ready to implement our mandate.”

“At the moment the missile launches from Houthi against Israel mark the first step,” the official added. “Their statement is not as clear and not a direct threat to merchant vessels passing through the Red Sea. Of course as we’ve already mentioned, a resumption of Houthi attacks to merchant vessels still remains a possibility.”

Aspides was created in February 2024 during the Houthi’s 15-month campaign against warships and commercial vessels. It is a defensive operation to provide protection for ships transiting the Red Sea region and situational awareness about Houthi threats.

Operation Prosperity Guardian, a similar effort created months earlier by the U.S. Navy that we were the first to write about, was disbanded a year ago after the Houthis agreed to a ceasefire. Its responsibilities were subsumed by Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 50, the surface warfare task force under U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday declined to comment about what, if any, preparations DESRON 50 is making for the possible resumption of Houthi aggression in the Red Sea.

So far, the Houthis’ intentions for the Red Sea region remain publicly unknown. On Wednesday, the group’s spokesman, Yahya Saree, announced they struck southern Israel with ballistic missiles in coordination with Iran and Hezbollah. No mention was made about the Red Sea.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces, with Allah’s help and reliance upon Allah, carried out the third military operation in the ‘Holy Jihad Battle,’ targeting sensitive Israeli enemy targets…” Saree stated.

However, as we noted yesterday, Iran is pushing the rebels “to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent upon any further escalation by the US in its war on the Islamic Republic,” Bloomberg News reported, citing European officials familiar with the matter.

Houthi leaders “are weighing options for more aggressive action after launching ballistic missiles at Israel,” Bloomberg added. During their previous campaign launched in late 2023, the Houthis attacked so many vessels with missiles and aerial and surface drones that shipping companies avoided the waterway, creating a spike in the price of some goods because alternative routes were much longer, resulting in increased cost of fuel, insurance and wages for crews. 

At issue now are the increasing amount of oil exports flowing through the BAM in the wake of Iran’s Strait closure. 

“Over the first 28 days of March, the amount of crude oil transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait jumped by 21% compared with February,” CNN noted, citing the Vortexa shipping data firm. 

In the past two weeks, Saudi Arabia has diverted nearly five million barrels a day of crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the network added. While just a fraction of the 15 million barrels a day that have been cut off by the Strait closure, the Yanbu exports have helped reduce oil shortages and blunt price increases. Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, reached a high of more than $107 per barrel on March 30 but fell to just over $101 per barrel as of Wednesday morning Eastern Standard Time, according to the latest figures from OilPrices.com.

A disruption of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea transit option could cause oil prices to rise much higher and very quickly, creating a cascading wave of financial impacts across the globe. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened today, it will still take a while for the global economy to recover from the shock. Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia, the simultaneous closure of both straits is a long-standing nightmare, a financial double-whammy that would also send energy prices around the globe skyrocketing.

Beyond the purely economic impact that a resumption of Houthi attacks would bring, defending against them could require military assets at a time when the U.S. is still building up its already heavy commitment for Operation Epic Fury. During the previous Houthi Red Sea campaign that stretched into early 2025, the U.S. and allies deployed many warships, including the Eisenhower and Truman Carrier Strike Groups (CGS) to both defend against Houthi attacks and strike targets in Yemen. These operations resulted in a large expenditure of air defense munitions already under tremendous strain as Iran rains down missiles and drones across the Middle East.

You can see video from some of those encounters below.

Strikes on Iranian-backed Houthi Targets by USS Gravely, USS Carney, and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower

At the moment, the U.S. has only the Lincoln CSG in the Middle East after the departure of the USS Gerald R. Ford for repairs from a fire. While the USS George H.W. Bush is reportedly on the way to replace the Ford, that journey will take a while. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has pushed thousands of Marines and a contingent of the 82nd Airborne to the region in advance of what could be an attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, which would greatly escalate Epic Fury.

The future of the U.S. fight against Iran remains unclear. Monday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran wanted a ceasefire, which he would only consider after they reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pushed back against that, which you can read more about in our story here. We might learn more tonight during Trump’s scheduled 9 p.m. speech about the war.

What role the Houthis may play in this conflict is not fully clear. They are the most independent of Iran’s proxy groups and often act on their own accord. A weakened Iran could further imperil any obedience they have to the regime in Tehran, though there is also the question of what would happen to Houthi weapon stocks should the Islamic Republic, a key supplier, fall. There is also a long history of fighting with Saudi Arabia to consider, as that could be rekindled.

Regardless, if the conflict continues, the Houthis opening a second front in the Red Sea would have wide-ranging military and economic effects and we will continue to closely monitor the situation.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

AT 36, Millie Mackintosh is navigating divorce for the second time in her life, after her seemingly fairytale marriage to Hugo Taylor collapsed earlier this year.

It’s the latest hurdle after a difficult few years, which has seen the star quit drinking and come to terms with an ADHD and anxiety diagnosis, which she had previously numbed with booze and prescription drugs. As she faces the pitfalls of divorce, insiders tell us why she has been left worrying about money and the lengths she’s gone to, to protect herself.

After seven years of marriage, Millie and Hugo, who are parents to Sienna, five, and Aurelia, four, filed for divorce earlier this month. The pair are yet to comment on the break-up but insiders suggested that Millie’s massive lifestyle overhaul played a part in the decision.

Suddenly, Millie, who is worth roughly £6million from her various business ventures over the years, went from a shared income with Hugo, who runs a luxury eyewear company, to fending for herself once again.

Hugo is thought to be worth around £4million – he launched luxury eyewear brand Taylor Morris off the back of his MIC fame, and it’s been a huge hit with the likes of everyone from David Gandy to the Beckhams.

An insider explained: “Millie has always made her own money; she didn’t rely on Hugo, but it is, of course, very different when there are two people instead of just one.

“Almost overnight, friends noticed a huge difference in her spending habits. Suddenly, she started to cut back and seemed to be really thinking about what she was buying.

“She’s worked so hard for what she’s created, and it’s terrifying not knowing what will happen. It’s causing her crippling anxiety.

“It’s very surprising to see someone like Millie fretting about money, but like any couple who has separated, it’s a shock to the system, and it will take time and effort working out how she will maintain her current lifestyle.”

Most people know Millie as one of the original cast members of Made In Chelsea – the reality show about some of London’s wealthiest 20-somethings.

She was billed as a chocolate heiress when she first burst onto the scene in 2011, but was determined to be known as more than that. 

Her great-great-grandfather, John, was a Victorian entrepreneur, known as the Toffee King, who created Mackintosh’s sweet company.

A generation later, her great-grandfather and his brother invented Quality Street, which Brits know and love today, but they sold it in 1988.

Millie insisted: “People severely overestimate how wealthy I am.

“I’m routinely referred to as the heir to the Quality Street fortune, as though I hit 21 and inherited millions. If only.

“It’s not as if I get a cut every time someone eats a toffee. My family sold the business years ago. I’m comfortable, but I don’t live a flash life.”

Millie, real name Camilla, definitely has a comfortable life – her parents, Nigel and Georgina, brought her up in a  £1.4million townhouse in Bath.

And as soon as she was old enough, Millie started working. She was a waitress at first and was working in Space NK when she was approached about her place on MIC when she was just 21. 

She famously dated Hugo on the show, but then met and fell in love with rapper Professor Green. They married in  2013 and split in 2016.

It was a rocky relationship, with Pro Green — real name Stephen Manderson — recently admitting that he had nearly “called off” their nuptials, but they had both felt “pressured” to go through with it.

A decade on from the split, Millie and Pro have reconnected and have bonded over both being diagnosed with ADHD in recent years.

Speaking on Jamie Laing’s Great Company podcast last October, Pro branded her “beautiful”, but added that the pair were toxic for one another at the time of their marriage, describing it as a “trauma bond”.

In another interview, he admitted their quickie divorce had been costly for him.

He told John Bishop: “You know what they say about divorce, it’s expensive, you know why? Because it’s worth it.

“I can’t stop working right now, my mortgage isn’t paid, I am not a house owner. The bank own my house, I own a percentage of it depending on where it sits in the market.”

The summer after their split, she rekindled things with Hugo, and it looked like they would last forever.

Second marriage split

News of their split came as a surprise, but insiders have suggested the writing had been on the wall for some time.

Millie had changed a lot in recent years – she has been open about her massive lifestyle overhaul after quitting drinking in 2022, then dealing with the ADHD and anxiety she had previously numbed with booze and prescription drugs.

What’s more, she revealed last year that, having grappled with her sexuality, she had finally admitted to herself and Hugo that she was also attracted to women.

The pair have now both appointed legal teams and have quietly started divorce proceedings.

A pal said: “Fans will be sad to hear that their relationship is really over, but the pair just want a clean break.

“Millie and Hugo are committed to co-parenting their two young children and keeping everything stable. They are still very amicable with each other and have a lot of respect for one another.

“They want the divorce to go through as painlessly as possible and are focusing on work in the meantime.”

They want the divorce to go through as painlessly as possible

Pal

Millie has always been a grafter – she swiftly turned her reality TV fame into an online following as an influencer, which paved the way for many after her.

She launched her own fashion brand in 2014, proudly saying at the time: “I invested my own money into setting it up.

“I own it, I model it, and they’re my designs. So I would say, yeah, I’ve kind of created my dream.”

But by 2018, the dream was over, and she lost £178,000 of her own money when the company became unsustainable.

It didn’t stop her, though, and she transformed into a lifestyle influencer, with brand deals popping up left, right and centre.

Our insider says: “Don’t be surprised if you see more and more collaborations on Millie’s social media. Her arms are very open to any opportunities that come her way.”

She even wrote a book – Bad Drunk – about her boozing issues.

She has been sober now for over three years and admitted that one of the ways she realised it was such a problem was the fact that it was “stealing her money”.

It hasn’t been an easy road to being financially secure, and the work/life juggle has proved tricky at times since she became a mum.

As a self-employed woman, Millie went back to work just three months after Sienna’s birth and, while it was difficult, she believes it was the best thing for her.

She says she gets up at the crack of dawn to get a head start on emails and tasks.

She explained: “Since becoming a mother, I really want to get the most out of work.

“Your time is your most valuable thing.

“I get up at 5am so I feel I can start my day early enough to get everything I need to do, done.”

She admits she got the “balance wrong” at first when it came to juggling work with kids.

“It weighed on me quite a lot,” she says.

“So I was actually doing some work around this in therapy, and I figured out that my weeks weren’t structured in a way that was beneficial for me and my mental health.

“I had to change the balance.

“And I now have blocked out time in my diary every week, and the kids know that I won’t be working in that time.”

The juggle has no doubt been even harder since her split from Hugo, and just a few days ago, she candidly spoke about her fears, saying: “I think recently I have found it really hard to know how to show up online because of things I’ve got going on in my personal life that I am not going to share online.

“But because I do usually share so much of my life, I felt like this gap, this resistance to posting and like letting you guys in.”

Millie certainly seems to be well aware that sharing her life with fans is helping to pay her bills at the moment, but just how much she will share is yet to be seen.

One thing is for certain, though, with her divorce looming, there is likely to be another very big bill on its way. 

Families heading off on the Easter holidays and days out face paying an average 150p a litre for petrol and as much as 180p for diesel – on top of the usual Bank Holiday misery of congested roads

Brits beginning the Easter getaway face price hikes and possible disruption.

The economic shockwaves from the Middle East war mean the millions taking the road are in for pain at the pumps when filling-up for long journeys. It came as petrol prices rose to close to 150p a litre and diesel nears the punishingly high 180p mark.

And there are warnings those planning to jet abroad face higher fares – if they have not booked ahead – and the risk of cancellations. That is all on top of the usual misery of queues on routes near holiday hotspots for those staying in the UK. The rush is expected to start from Friday as schools break up for the holidays, and will peak over the long Easter weekend.

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The AA said more than 19 million people travelled on Good Friday last year, with 18.5 million on the Saturday and 18.2 million each on Easter Sunday and Easter Monday. Many will end up paying through the nose when they stop off to fill-up, given a sharp rise in fuel prices since the start of the Iran war at the end of March.

The nationwide average for unleaded has jumped to almost 150p a litre, up 17p since before the conflict erupted. Diesel drivers have been hit even harder, with diesel now averaging 176.66p per litre, a leap of 34p in recent weeks.

Motoring groups and ministers have urged drivers not panic buy fuel. Ministers insisted the UK was well stocked, despite Iran’s effective blockade of oil through the key Strait of Hormuz. A handful of forecourts have displayed signs saying they are out of fuel.

RAC mobile servicing and repairs team leader Sean Kimberlin said: “Fuel prices may have risen sharply in recent weeks, but our research with drivers shows they are still determined to make the most of the Easter break. Despite diesel costing around £19 more per tank than last year and petrol about £8 more, only a small number of people are actually changing their plans. For many, Easter is the first real chance to get away since Christmas, so we’re urging drivers to use the myRAC app to find the cheapest forecourts near them.”

He added: “This year we’re expecting one of the busiest Easter getaways since 2022, with planned leisure trips rising again for the second year running.

“Traffic is likely to build from Thursday as schools break up, with the M5 towards Devon and Cornwall and the M25 set to be particularly congested. The worst delays are expected from around 10am, so getting on the road early is still the best way to avoid the queues.”

Predictions that Brits are in for a cracking Easter, with blue skies and temperatures climbing towards 20C, are expected to mean are even busier than normal.

National Highways said it was lifting around 1,500 miles of roadworks between next Thursday and Easter Monday, “meaning 98% of our motorways and major A-roads will be free of roadworks over the bank holiday,” it added.

Airports are also braced for a rush families taking advantage of the Easter break for a week in the sun. Yet it comes amid warnings of possible cancellations to some long haul destinations, partly due to fears of jet fuel shortages. The soaring cost of aviation fuel has also led to concerns that flight prices will rise.

Regulator the CAA says it expects over two million passengers through UK airports across the Easter break, including 1.6 million over the Easter weekend.

It is urging travellers to check the flight status with their airline and ensure they are up to date with the latest government foreign travel advice on any countries they are transiting through before you leave for the airport.

Anticipating possible disruption, it said: “If your flight is delayed or cancelled, you may be entitled to meals, accommodation or alternative travel arrangements provided by your airline.” It went on: “Travel insurance can protect against missed flights, medical emergencies, and lost or stolen belongings. Carefully review the terms and conditions to understand your coverage.”

Selina Chadha, group director for consumers and markets at the CAA, said: “With many UK travellers planning to get away over the Easter holidays, it’s important that those planning to travel know their rights and plan ahead to make their journeys as smooth as possible.”

Gatwick Airport says its near 60 airlines have flights to more than 220 destinations over Easter. “Short-haul breaks are expected to lead over the Easter holidays with bookings for Barcelona, Malaga, Alicante, Dublin and Geneva currently topping the most popular list,” a spokesperson said.

“Passengers are also preparing to travel further afield, with top long-haul options currently including Orlando, Shanghai and Cancun.” The airport’s busiest day over the holidays is set to be Easter Sunday.

Yields on government debt across European countries and the United States have been rising since the start of the Iran war.

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Investors are demanding higher yields as confidence in the global economy has cratered due to the severe negative impact of the conflict on energy markets, supply chains and Middle Eastern infrastructure.

The 2-year notes, sensitive to near-term rate expectations, have risen faster than their 10-year counterparts in a classic bear-flattening move, while longer-dated yields reflect worries over the economic drag caused by more expensive energy.

Speaking to Euronews, BCA Research’s Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Robert Timper, explained that “the aggressive bear flattening of yield curves reflects a hawkish monetary policy repricing in response to inflation fears stemming from the Iran war”.

“The front-end [2-year yields] is more sensitive to changes in monetary policy and has therefore risen more than the long-end [10-year yields] in response to investors’ anticipation of more hawkish central bank policy,” Timper added.

Historically, this specific curve behaviour often precedes an inverted yield curve, which is a well-recognised indicator of a potential economic recession.

European bonds bear the brunt of the sell-off

The repricing has been most pronounced in Europe, with the UK bond market feeling the biggest pressure.

Since the start of the conflict, the 10-year UK gilt yield has risen from 4.2% to a high of over 5% while the 2-year note yield jumped from 3.5% to a peak of 4.6%.

Timper explained to Euronews that past inflation experience has proved decisive, stating that “rate hikes in the UK are more likely than elsewhere because inflation has been more elevated than elsewhere, and the risk of inflation expectations unanchoring is therefore higher.”

On Wednesday, AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould highlighted the UK-specific implications in a detailed press release, noting that the 10-year gilt yield is hovering near 5% for only the third time since 2008 while the 2-year gilt yield comfortably exceeds the Bank of England base rate.

Mould also explained that the gap between the 10-year gilt yield and the FTSE 100 dividend yield has widened to more than one-and-a-half percentage points, making UK equities relatively less attractive.

Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields experienced similar surges.

Germany’s 10-year bund yield increased from 2.65% to around 3%, nearing 15-year highs, while the 2-year note yield climbed from roughly 2% to 2.65%.

In France, the 10-year OAT yield jumped from 3.2% to above 3.7%, approaching 17-year peaks, while the 2-year note yield has risen from 2.1% to over 2.8%.

As for Italy, the 10-year BTP yield was at around 3.3% before the Iran war and has now surpassed 3.9%, approaching two-year highs, while the 2-year note yield has increased from roughly 2.15% to 3%.

In every single one of these bond markets, the yield on the 2-year notes has risen faster than their 10-year counterparts.

The 30 and 20-year bond yields are also all trading higher which denotes deteriorating confidence in the long-term growth prospect of the respective European economies.

US Treasuries face comparable headwinds

Across the Atlantic, US Treasuries have followed a similar trajectory, though the sell-off has been less severe than in the UK for example.

The 10-year note yield has risen from around 3.9% to a peak of 4.4%, reached on Monday, and is currently trading at 4.37%.

Meanwhile, the 2-year note yield increased from 3.35% to a high of over 4%, and it is hovering 3.9% at the time of writing.

The yields on both notes have hit an 8-month high.

Timper’s analysis places US bond performance close to that of the euro area, reflecting broadly comparable inflation histories and policy outlooks. There is scant evidence of investors fleeing European bonds for US Treasuries as a safe-haven trade.

Speaking to Euronews, Timper explained that such shifting flows would be more visible in currency markets as the US dollar benefits from being the predominant denominator for energy exports.

For now the message from bond markets on either side of the Atlantic is consistent, the Middle East conflict has rewritten the near-term outlook for inflation, monetary policy and borrowing costs.