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More Trillion-Dollar US Banks Expected as Consolidation Accelerates

Lighter regulation and excess capital are setting up the biggest U.S. banking wave since the 2008 crisis.

The U.S. banking industry is bracing for its most significant wave of consolidation since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a new Bain & Co. analysis.

The firm expects the number of trillion-dollar U.S. banks to grow from the “Big Four” — JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., and Wells Fargo & Co. — to as many as seven by 2030. Key drivers include lighter regulation, burgeoning tech and 17 global banks holding over $10 billion each in excess capital. That capital cushion, Bain argues, will lead to a spike in M&A activity.

Banco Santander SA’s August acquisition of Webster Financial Corp. serves as an early example of what could be in store for U.S. banking giants. For Joe Lischwe, a partner in Bain’s financial services and customer strategy practice, the deal illustrates how capital-rich banks are leveraging eased regulatory conditions to combine geographic scale with targeted scope. In this scenario, Santander gets Webster’s health savings account franchise.

“We think there’s a window within this current [Trump] administration over the next two to three years where this will continue to be accelerating,” Lischwe told Global Finance on a call. “You will see more consolidation over the next few years.”

A Capital-Rich Setup

Seventeen U.S. banks currently hold more than $10 billion in excess capital — a figure Lischwe said Bain compiled from a mix of public quarterly filings and third-party data sources, including Refinitiv.

Bain also found that total bank M&A deal value rose 19% in 2025 and is up another 7% so far this year.

“There’s been an uptick in the actual deal value that has been occurring,” Lischwe added. “But I think, probably, the biggest tailwind is from a regulatory perspective.”

The Trump administration continues to move on multiple fronts that matter most to M&A-hungry banks, the latest being on Sept. 17 when the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) proposed new guidelines to make bank mergers easier and faster to approve.

Scale vs. Scope

Not all acquisitions are created equal, according to Bain’s framework, which sorts bank deals into two categories. “Scale” deals expand a bank’s existing footprint — deposits, branches and geographic reach — and generate value primarily through cost synergies.

“Scope” deals, meanwhile, bring in capabilities the acquirer doesn’t already have. Bain predicts that these blended scale-and-scope deals will emerge as the standouts. Capital One Financial Corp.’s acquisition of Discover, which gave Capital One a payments network it previously lacked, produced outsized total shareholder returns on a two-year basis, Lischwe said.

Fifth Third Bancorp’s purchase of Comerica, by contrast, was a more traditional scale play — consolidating similar deposit and branch businesses — without adding new capabilities.

“In general, we were seeing that blended deals, on average, performed better,” Lischwe said. “That’s not to say that scale deals don’t do well.”

The Fintech Integration Trap

Bain’s advice to bank executives is to first conduct a rigorous self-assessment across six dimensions — financial scale, geographic density, business mix, product capability, technology and liquidity — before approaching an acquisition target.

“The answer is not to buy more fintechs,” Lischwe said. “The answer is to know your gaps, diligence those gaps, and then consider every asset that helps you close those gaps.”

Nowadays, fintechs tend to outpace incumbent banks in artificial intelligence, data, payments, blockchain and digital assets — areas that could tempt banks to leapfrog years of in-house development. But evaluating those targets is harder than buying a similar-sized bank, Lischwe said. A fintech operating in an unfamiliar capability area is more difficult to underwrite than a competitor running the same core business.

That complexity introduces significant execution risk for buyers looking to acquire growth quickly.

Winners, Losers, and the Case for Consumers

Jeff Barrington, Windsor Drake Managing Director
Jeff Barrington,
Windsor Drake

Jeff Barrington, Managing Director at tech and payments sell-side advisory firm Windsor Drake, cautions that banks frequently misjudge these acquisitions on several fronts.

“Banks buying fintechs tend to get tripped up in four ways: they pay a growth multiple for revenue that was acquisition cost-fuelled and doesn’t survive inside the bank, they underestimate the cost of bolting a modern stack onto a legacy core, they lose the founders and engineers once the earnout vests, and they misprice the regulatory and partner bank risk that comes attached,” Barrington said. “The recurring error is buying what looks like a growth company and ending up with a bank-owned product that stops growing.”

There’s also the risk of a more concentrated banking landscape: fewer banks means higher fees and diminished access to the kind of relationship-based banking that small towns and entrepreneurs rely on.

Barrington added that while scale can fund improved pricing and technology for users, “consolidation consistently narrows choice, closes branches and thins out relationship lending.

Yes, but …

Banks that fail to acquire or build the AI, data and digital capabilities that are currently reshaping the industry risk falling behind competitively.

“Those [banks] that will be successful are those that will be really ruthless about what are our capability gaps, what can we close inorganically, doing the proper diligence and then properly integrating it,” Lischwe added.

Capital One-Discover, Fifth Third-Comerica and Santander-Webster are recent deals that, so far, have held up. Whether pricier, more speculative targets — he cited digital banking upstart Revolut as an example of an asset banks are watching, despite its rich valuation — get bought will depend on whether acquirers can underwrite a clear strategic fit and value-creation case.

As for whether a change in political control in Washington could derail the trend, Lischwe remains skeptical.

“The regulatory tailwind is going to last,” he said, “through this administration and even into the next one.”

Anthony Noto covers corporate finance and private credit. Contact him at anoto@gfmag.com

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Major gas leak by train tracks causes rush hour chaos as passengers warned ‘do not travel’ & disruption expected all day

MAJOR railway lines are closed due to a gas leak leaving commuters stranded in rush hour – with the disruption expected to last all day.

Passengers are urged not to travel between Reading and Swindon as engineers frantically attempt to fix the issue, while other routes are seeing significant delays.

Train station display board showing two London Paddington trains from Platform 3 cancelled.
Trains to Paddington from Reading cancelled at 6am this morning Credit: Reddit
Modern architecture Class 220 Voyager diesel-electric multiple unit train, Reading railway station, Berkshire, England, UK
The station is among those affected Credit: Getty

The gas leak close to railway land at Didcot Parkway in South Oxfordshire is expected to cause severe disruption throughout Wednesday.

The Reading-Didcot section of the route is the gateway from Paddington towards Swindon, Bristol, Bath, South Wales, Cheltenham and other parts of the West Country.

Diversions are in place but Great Western Rail is cancelling some services outright because trains can’t get through Reading-Didcot.

A total of 72 services to and from Didcot are cancelled, while 39 have been axed at Oxford and 45 at Reading.

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One social media user posted a photo from Swindon showing trains to Paddington cancelled at 6am.

They wrote: “Apparently there’s been a gas leak around Didcot Parkway so they’ve cancelled most of the services, and no replacement bus services running either.

“The staff at Swindon reckon this will last all day and probably tomorrow.”

Another person responded: “Absolutely ridiculous… not good enough.”

GWR is running roughly one train an hour Paddington-Bath/Bristol via a diversionary route – a fraction of the normal capacity.

It has warned only to travel if absolutely necessary.

Replacement buses are running between Swindon, Didcot and Reading but Network Rail says capacity won’t be enough for everyone.

CrossCountry is also telling passengers not to travel between Reading and Oxford – with one person responding to the company’s X post with: “Thanks for ruining my whole day.”

Network Rail said: “Engineers from gas distribution company SGN are on site working to rectify the problem as quickly and safely as possible.

“Network Rail and train operators are working together to manage the impact on passengers, but normal services cannot operate until the leak has been repaired because the railway falls within the safety exclusion zone.

“Severe disruption is expected to long-distance services that would usually travel through Didcot, and passengers are being warned that trains able to run either side of the affected area will be extremely busy.

“GWR will continue to operate as many trains as possible either side of the incident.”

GWR expects to be able to operate services between:

  • Reading and London Paddington
  • Swindon and Cheltenham Spa
  • Swindon and Chippenham/Bath/Bristol
  • South Wales to Bristol Temple Meads
  • Worcester and Oxford
  • An hourly service between London Paddington and Bath/Bristol via an alternative, diversionary route
  • Oxford and Didcot
  • An hourly service Bristol Temple Meads and Didcot
  • Usual timetabled services that do not run between Reading and Didcot
  • A limited bus replacement service will operate between Swindon, Didcot and Reading

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I went to a tiny Greek island to swim with pigs – it was nothing like I expected

Atokos is a tiny island near Lefkada in the Ionian Sea, off the coast of Acarnania. It is one of the most westerly and remotest of the Echinades Islands, home to no one but a colony of pigs

Pig Beach is an irresistible place. It’s a place where a family of adorable hogs, as pink as a Brit at the end of a long summer holiday, trot around on the sand, run through the shallows and piggy-paddle in the waves.

It’s not clear exactly how the colony of oinkers made it to their Bahaman paradise home. Some say the pigs were dropped off by a group of sailors who wanted to come back and cook them, only to get diverted, leaving the pigs to survive on excess food dumped from passing ships. Another tale suggests the pigs were survivors of a shipwreck, while a third argues that they were placed there as a cynical ploy to attract tourists.

If the final explanation is true, then fair play to the inspired swine herder responsible. The Bahamas’ swimming pigs are one of the most popular tourist attractions in the whole region, attracting thousands of porcine enthusiasts into the shallows each year. Pig Beach has about 20 individual piggies and a cast of piglets that varies in size each year, but other islands, including Eleuthera, Rose, Abaco, and Ship Channel Cay, have also gotten in on the action in recent years.

Charmed by the idea of splashing around in the warm waves with a lovely little swine, when I heard that Europe has its very own version of Pig Island, and that it was a short sail away from where I’d be exploring, I couldn’t resist.

Do you have a travel story to share? Email webtravel@reachplc.com

Atokos is a tiny island near Lefkada in the Ionian Sea, off the coast of Acarnania. It is one of the most westerly and remotest of the Echinades Islands. No one lives on Atokos, not even its shipping magnate owner, Panayiotis Tsako. But it attracts a handful of brave yachtspeople who are allowed to anchor in the shallows.

My friends and I found ourselves in their number on a hot May day, jumping into the water and swimming onto the beach, wetsuit shoes providing crucial protection against the burning-hot pebbles. We’d expected to be met by a group of friendly pigs splashing around in the shallows, but the beach was empty. Of both pigs and people.

Assuming that the hogs were sheltering in the woods at the top of the beach, we walked in, finding them ringing with loud cicadas as we wandered down a path. At the bottom was a single two-storey house, which appeared habitable enough despite its doors being locked and its windows boarded up. Not a pig in sight.

We wandered back towards the beach down winding paths thick with pinecones and sticks, swiping away the thick spider webs that stretched between the trees. Despite the intense Greek sunshine and glistening blue water, the place had a spooky atmosphere, intensified by the empty chapel rising above the sand. I’d read it was well looked after by a visiting janitor, but it looked dusty and unloved. I flicked a large spider off my shoulder.

And then the pigs arrived.

Just as we’d resigned ourselves to returning to the boat light of a soul-cleansing frolick with the promised porsine inhabitants, guess who came snuffling out of the woods? Not a sweet piggy, but a hog. A big, hairy, grunting hog. I’m not an expert, but I’d put a 50/50 wager on it being a wild boar.

The pig wandered towards us, stopping about a metre away. He looked at us, and we looked back. Then out of the woods came three more pigs, seemingly a mum and two piglets. They joined the bigger, dad-looking pig.

There was something about the biggest pig’s tusks and the way it was looking at our now shivering, unprotected but for swimming trunks bodies, that made us feel nervous. These piggies didn’t look amenable to a quick pic.

Suddenly, the big pig roared and lurched forward towards us. I don’t know whether we’d strayed too close to his family, looked at him the wrong way, or stayed too long on the creepy island, but the noise was far from an Instagram-reel-friendly oink. To our shame, we ran. We ran all the way into the sea, powering through the shallows before launching ourselves into a swim. It was only once back to our boat that we risked a look back towards the Atokos and its inhospitable pig masters. There they stood, looking out across the water, unfriendly stares boring into us.

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Harvey Elliott to Valencia: Liverpool midfielder expected to join on season-long loan

Liverpool midfielder Harvey Elliott is expected to join Valencia on loan for the rest of the season.

The 23-year-old spent last season on loan at Aston Villa but made only one Premier League start for them.

Valencia, who finished ninth in La Liga last season and did not qualify for Europe, had been working to find a financially viable way of making the loan deal work.

Elliott is yet to undergo a medical at Valencia. La Liga’s transfer window closes on Tuesday at 23:00 BST.

The Spanish club want Liverpool to cover half of the midfielder’s wages. It remains unclear what the exact wage split will be.

Sources indicate there is no option or obligation for Valencia to buy Elliott in the terms of the loan deal.

Elliott featured regularly during Liverpool‘s pre-season under new head coach Andoni Iraola but has subsequently been left out of the club’s first two Premier League squads.

The former England Under-21 international’s contract with Liverpool runs until 2028.

Elliott joined Liverpool from Fulham aged 16 in 2019 and spent the 2020-21 season on loan at Blackburn Rovers in the Championship.

Meanwhile, Liverpool defensive midfielder Stefan Bajcetic has joined boyhood club Celta Vigo on a permanent deal.

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