Northern Ireland Football League CEO Gerard Lawlor has said member clubs “cannot continue doing the same things” after falling to 51st in Uefa’s association coefficient rankings.
Iberia 1999’s 1-1 draw at home to Mjallby in the Uefa Conference League on Thursday night moved Georgia’s domestic league up the standings, dropping Northern Ireland out of the crucial top 50.
While NIFL have said that their “final position remains subject to UEFA’s rankings and access arrangements”, as it stands that would mean the Irish Premiership will have only three European spots in the 2028-29 season.
Currently the Irish Premiership’s top two and Irish Cup winners automatically qualify for the next season’s Uefa competitions, while the league’s final spot is decided by an end-of-season play-off.
Lawlor called the expected loss of a European spot “a major concern and a potentially significant setback” for the game in Northern Ireland.
“The reality is that we are now facing the very real prospect of having just three clubs competing in Europe rather than four,” he said.
“European football provides vital opportunities for our clubs, players and supporters, alongside important financial investment that benefits the wider game.
“While we have witnessed some excellent individual European performances, collectively we must acknowledge that our results have not been good enough.”
Places in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League are allocated on the basis of a five-year performance ranking.
This season, Glentoran, Linfield and Coleraine all fell at the first hurdle, while Larne squandered a two-goal aggregate advantage to lose to Lincoln Red Imps when 90 minutes away from the league phase of Conference League.
Poor showings in Europe are one factor in the ongoing debate over so-called summer football in the Irish Premiership, with 75% of NIFL’s 38 member clubs required to vote in favour of a calendar change.
“We cannot continue doing the same things, in the same way, and expect different outcomes,” said Lawlor.
“This reinforces why NIFL has been challenging clubs to think differently about their future, including seasonality, investment, player development and how we create a more competitive domestic environment.
“We must ask whether our current structures give clubs the best possible opportunity to succeed in Europe. We need to stop measuring ourselves solely against each other domestically and start measuring ourselves against European standards.”
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While England’s League A campaign has gone well so far, Wales’ has been trickier.
In a tough group with Portugal, Denmark and Norway, Wales have picked up three points from four games after beating Norway 2-1 in Cardiff.
With Portugal already qualified for the last eight, Wales will need close to maximum points in their final matches against Norway and Portugal to stand any chance of making the last eight.
A third-place finish would put them in a play-off to avoid relegation in March, while coming last in the group would guarantee a drop down to League B.
Like England, Scotland have three rounds of fixtures remaining. They face Slovenia at Hampden Park on Tuesday.
Going into that tie, they are third in League B1 but only behind Slovenia on goal difference. A win for Sebastien Pocognoli’s side would put them second behind Switzerland heading into the November break.
With Scotland’s penultimate match coming against bottom of the table North Macedonia, wins in their next two games would all but seal a place in the top two heading into their final match against Switzerland, who are expected to clinch the automatic promotion spot.
Northern Ireland have had a successful international break with two wins, two draws and no goals conceded in their four matches in Group B2.
They sit top of the group by a point, with their remaining matches against bottom side Georgia and second-place Hungary.
Should they beat Georgia and Hungary fail to beat Ukraine in November’s first round of fixtures, they will guarantee top spot and promotion. A win for them and Hungary doing the same would mean the two sides face off in a promotion-decider in the final round of games.
The Republic of Ireland are third in Group B3 following five points from their first four matches.
Their remaining two fixtures are against the top two teams Austria and Kosovo. Wins in both would guarantee a top-two finish and would also put them in a strong position to win the group, depending on goal difference and the result of Austria’s meeting with Israel.