Will ‘Avatar’ box office translate into Oscar success?
Has there been a year this decade when we’ve been sad to see it go?
I thought about that while reading our “25 ways to banish this no good, very bad year” list, which contains some terrific ideas, and I’d be very happy to watch you jump into the Pacific on New Year’s Day, if you feel so inclined. But they’re all predicated on the idea that this year has given off a stench that needs to be smothered, the same way you’d cleanse your dog in tomato juice after an encounter with a skunk.
And this is true. Even Game 7 of the World Series can’t erase the heartache that 2025 has inflicted upon us, though props to Kiké Hernández for doing his best to distract from the headlines.
I’m Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope newsletter, wishing you and yours a better new year. It’s a low bar. I’m optimistic we can jump it.
Predicting ‘Avatar’s’ Oscar chances
Did anyone really want to see a third “Avatar” movie?
Sure, someone must have. It sold $89 million in tickets last weekend, though that number fell short of analysts’ forecast for James Cameron’s three-hour movie. For comparison, 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” brought in $134 million in its opening weekend. That movie, like the series’ 2009 first film, built its $2-billion-plus box office over time.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” may well do the same.
Still, doesn’t it feel like there should be more excitement to go see a movie that might gross $2 billion worldwide? Maybe you were among the first in line to see it last Friday. No judgment. I’ve seen every Cameron movie in a theater, a streak I suspect will continue as long as he’s making films.
The thing is, Cameron himself is giving the distinct impression that he’s ready to move on from “Avatar,” even though he has already written scripts for the fourth and fifth entries in the franchise. He has other projects in the works, adapting “Ghosts of Hiroshima,” which revolves around the true story of the only survivor of both atomic bombs dropped on Japan. And he has teased a “Terminator” reboot.
Cameron is 71, a kid compared to Ridley Scott (88) and Martin Scorsese (83), but still … the clock is ticking.
Do you want him devote another three years (or more) to the lush, gorgeous world of Pandora?
Maybe if “Avatar: Fire and Ash” had spent less time repeating the same themes — and, sometimes, the same scenes — almost beat for beat from the “The Way of Water,” I’d feel differently. The new movie is, of course, a visual feast, though with just three years between the second and third films, the technological advances don’t feel as awe-inspiring this time around. Cameron remains adept at world-building and creating tense action set pieces. He’s also unrivaled at serving up lumpy dialogue, and the new film has serious pacing issues. “Fire and Ash” feels every bit like a 197-minute movie.
When I did my last set of Oscar best picture power rankings on Nov. 3, I put “Fire and Ash” at No. 10, sight unseen. This was in part because Cameron is Cameron and deserves respect and also because would-be contenders like “A House of Dynamite,” “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” “The Smashing Machine” and “After the Hunt” weren’t connecting with voters.
But the franchise fatigue with “Avatar” feels real. It’ll still probably win the visual effects Oscar and pick up a nomination for sound. But I suspect it’s going to fall just outside the 10 movies nominated for best picture.
If that happens, will anyone cry “snub”? Likely not. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” can still inspire wonder, but for the first time in his career, Cameron is spinning his wheels. It feels like he’s ready to return to Earth.
