TODAY

Another year of football is over and it’s time to start looking ahead to 2026.

The Premier League will reach its conclusion in May, with Arsenal looking to win their first title in over two decades – but can the Gunners see the job through this time?

Will an English club be crowned champions of Europe? Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham are all looking to reach the last 16.

Could Chelsea‘s hold over the Women’s Super League be set to end? Manchester City, now under the guidance of Andree Jeglertz, lead the way in an enthralling title race.

The World Cup, expanded to 48 teams and complete with a round of 32 for the first time, is bigger than ever before – but who will come out on top?

The winners of the Women’s Champions League, Ballon d’Or and Scottish Premiership will also be known.

So now it’s over to you, the BBC Sport audience… Here is your chance to predict who will win the biggest of trophies, both domestically and globally, in 2026.

In an African media landscape often praised from afar but punished up close, the real story of leading an independent newsroom rarely makes the headlines. People romanticise the adrenaline of the newsroom, the thrill of the scoop, the excitement of breaking news. But leadership in accountability journalism—in a country where truth does not trend—is a different story entirely. It is a story of hidden battles, bruised spirits, and a vision stretched thin by a society that prioritises entertainment gossip over existential truths.

This reflection is a continuation of my thoughts from June 3, 2025 – The Unseen Struggle of Leading a Media Platform in a Turbulent Environment.

In Nigeria, where insecurity is the biggest factor shaping daily life, the public’s attention is captured instead by comedy skits, celebrity feuds, gossip threads, political gaffes, and Premier League debates. This is the ecosystem in which independent journalism is expected to survive.

And so, every morning, I walked into the HumAngle building, feeling the weight of a mission at odds with its environment—carrying not just the hopes of nearly 40 staff members, but also the invisible pressure to prove that public-interest journalism can exist in a society that has never been structured to sustain it.

Across Africa, there is no real culture of donations, subscriptions, or even crowdfunding. Journalism is consumed as if it should be free, but demanded as if it should be perfect. Donors are inconsistent, and local philanthropy often fails to acknowledge the media as a public good. Here, running a newsroom is not merely difficult—it is punishing.

Leadership in this terrain? It is an unending battle.

The weight no one talks about

There is no handbook for running a mission-driven newsroom in Africa. No manual for balancing editorial courage with collapsing revenue. No chapter explaining the emotional labour required when staff look to you for stability, even as you drown quietly inside.

Personal and organisational debts blur. Health suffers. Nights become battlegrounds of fear and self-doubt. To the world, you remain the unshakeable face of the mission. Inside, you are a flickering candle refusing to die out.

And then comes the perpetual churn of young talent. Some join the newsroom committed; others see it as a stepping stone to something more glamorous or better-paying. Training becomes constant. Expectations clash with reality. The hunger to build a long-term institution is met with the short-term ambitions of individuals trying to survive.

These are the unseen struggles—never spoken, barely acknowledged. But none of these internal pressures compares to the most suffocating question of all: How do you keep the lights on in a continent that does not invest in the truth?

Here, many media outlets pay little or nothing, causing many workers to moonlight. The public expects reliable news for free. Donor funding becomes increasingly precarious year after year, and local businesses view journalism as little more than an expense.

Yet the expectation is always that we must remain fair, independent, ethical, and unbroken.

It is a war fought alone.

The year the floor gave in

At the start of 2025, HumAngle lost nearly 90 per cent of its income. Years of careful building felt undone in a single moment. By mid-year, we had clawed back a small fraction of that loss, but over 60 per cent of what sustained us in 2023–2024 never returned. The ground under our feet cracked open. 

I drafted a resignation letter twice. But who would I send it to? To the staff who trusted me beyond the title? To the public, would my exit be seen as a surrender? To the displaced communities whose stories depend on our presence? I stayed—not because I felt strong, but because leaving felt weaker.

And yet somehow, we built more

The cruel irony is that even in our most challenging year, we produced some of our most important work. We published roughly 450 written stories and over 70 video reports in the forms of:

• Deep investigations.
• Ground reporting from places others avoid.
• Explainers, data stories, GIS maps.
• Cartoons and motion graphics.
• VR documentaries.
• Stories of insurgency, displacement, bureaucracy, climate vulnerability, abductions, disappearances, corruption, and the human will to survive.

We created an animated series. We mapped conflict. We exposed truths hidden in plain sight. While our budget shrank, our creativity expanded and our resolve sharpened. 

In-between the nonstop cycle of proposals, investor pitches, and fundraising, I managed to write about 20 articles; one ended up HumAngle’s number one most-read story of 2025.

If leadership is measured by scars, 2025 carved its initials into my spirit.

A break in the clouds

Then, in November—when the exhaustion in my bones felt older than the year—I received the news that I had been selected as a 2026 Yale Peace Fellow.

It felt like the universe placing a hand on my back, whispering, “I see your sacrifices. Keep going.”

It was both validation and oxygen. A reminder that the mission is still worthy. For the first time in months, I exhaled.

Gratitude

To the team members who witnessed the storm’s impact on me yet never wavered in their confidence—thank you. Your presence gave me the strength to keep fighting and to ensure the wheels of HumAngle continued to turn.

And to myself, I owe a whisper of recognition:
I stood when it made no sense to stand.
I held the line when hope dimmed to a shadow.
I carried HumAngle through a year that nearly broke me.

Abandoning the communities we serve would have been a more profound betrayal than any financial strain.

This is Ahmad Salkida saying: Thank you—and I see you—to Ahmad Salkida.

Why we must continue

Our reporting led to the release of over 1,000 men who had been arbitrarily detained for years by the military. It also strengthened accountability in the management of IDP camps and contributed to several rescues as well as improved humanitarian response efforts. There is so much more that our reporting and advocacy have achieved.

If we stop, who documents the disappeared? Who tracks the terrorists expanding violently across borders? Who exposes the illicit financial networks funding terrorism? Who tells the stories of those the state has forgotten? Who protects truth in a time when truth is expendable?

Looking toward 2026

I do not know what the coming year holds. But I hope— stubbornly—that it will be kinder. Kinder to those who witness suffering so others may understand. Kinder to organisations like HumAngle that stand between injustice and oblivion. Kinder to the idea that journalism still matters.

The year 2025 almost broke us. It almost broke me. But ‘almost’ is not the same as ‘did’.

HumAngle stands—scarred, stretched, humbled—but standing. And in 2026, we continue, more determined than ever to continue to bear witness.

The foundation has so far raised £65,000 through, in part, events like a ball at Worcestershire’s New Road and a golf day. But Lisa and Paul have hit an obstacle. Spending the money is proving more problematic than raising it.

“I thought it would be the other way around,” says Paul. “Raising money is never easy, but how do we change people’s lives, how do we make things better for people and have success stories to tell on the back of it?

“The aim is to give something back to the sport of cricket that we cherish as a family.

“It’s not something we have the expertise in, so we’re finding out how we can divert funds into helping people, clubs, or the medical side of the game. It could be helping juniors get to matches, or helping families where finances are a barrier.”

Now, Lisa and Paul are asking anyone who can give the JB33 Foundation some direction to get in touch via the charity’s Instagram page.

“It’s something we’re very passionate about, because it means so much to us,” says Lisa. “We need to start spending and shouting about what we’re doing.”

Even while they’re in Australia, Lisa and Paul are continuing to take calls and hold meetings about the Foundation. When they get home in the new year, they want to press on with their work before the new season begins.

Before then, they will finish their Ashes trip in Sydney. On day one of the fifth Test they will once again be wearing their JB33 T-shirts, as they have on the opening day of each of the previous four.

“It hurts like hell because they have his face on the back, but it’s also beautiful,” says Lisa.

Like Melbourne, returning to Sydney will stir unbearable emotions that no parent ever should feel.

It was outside the Sydney Cricket Ground where Josh bowled during the Ashes Test of 2011, and it was in the city when Josh had his winter cricketing adventure just months before he passed away.

“He wasn’t a big Christmas person,” says Lisa. “I don’t doubt that he wouldn’t have spent a Christmas at home for a long time – he’d have been out here playing cricket.

“He loved his life. Music was a big part. Certain songs come on and I have to take a deep breath. He loved his music. He was always singing.

“Coming to Australia is very special to us now. We feel closer to him out here at Christmas than we would at home.”

Over the past week or so, U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been spotted carrying increasingly greater numbers of AGM-114 Hellfire missiles on sorties from Puerto Rico. This includes at least one Reaper seen armed with 10 Hellfires, a loadout that does not previously appear to have been disclosed as being an option for these drones. This all now comes amid reports that it was the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that recently carried out a first-of-its-kind covert strike on a target in Venezuela using an unspecified drone.

The unusually large Hellfire loads are the latest in a series of changes in U.S. force posture in the region that go well beyond simply bolstering support to the U.S. military’s ostensibly expanded counter-drug operations. Readers can first get up to speed on this and other recent developments in the Caribbean in our recent reporting here.

CNN was first to report yesterday that a CIA-directed drone strike targeted what has been described as a “port facility” and a “dock” somewhere along Venezuela’s coast sometime earlier this month, citing anonymous sources. The site is said to have been used by the Tren de Aragua criminal organization, which the U.S. government designated as a terrorist organization earlier this year, to smuggle drugs. The New York Times has also now reported that the CIA led this operation, per its own unnamed sources. TWZ has previously highlighted ports and other logistical nodes as among the likely first rungs in a kinetic escalation ladder for operations inside Venezuela.

President Donald Trump had first mentioned the strike publicly in a phone call with WABC radio in New York last Friday. He brought it up again while speaking to the press yesterday alongside visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The President did not say in either case who had carried out the mission. Back in October, Trump said he had authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.

When it comes to U.S. MQ-9s in the region, Reapers have been operating from Rafael Hernandez Airport in Aguadilla in Puerto Rico since September. They have generally been seen carrying between two and four AGM-114 Hellfire missiles at a time, as well as range-extending fuel tanks and pods, the latter of which we will come back to later on. This is a very typical combat loadout that has been seen on Reapers operating globally in the past.

However, between December 21 and December 24, MQ-9s started being seen flying from Aguadilla armed with six, eight, and then a whopping 10 AGM-114s. Local spotter Michael Bonet has shared some images of Reapers operating from the airport with larger Hellfire loadouts, seen earlier in this story and below, directly with TWZ.

At least as of 2021, the Air Force had said its Reapers could carry no more than eight Hellfires at once. The MQ-9 can also carry a variety of other munitions, including 500-pound-class Paveway and Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) series precision-guided bombs. Only Hellfires have been seen so far on Reapers in Puerto Rico.

The growing loadouts seen on Puerto Rico-based Reapers have also necessitated the use of four-rail launchers. TWZ has so far been unable to find any past imagery of U.S. MQ-9s flying with these quad-launchers. They are commonly seen on U.S. Army AH-64 Apache and U.S. Marine Corps’ AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters, as well as the U.S. Navy’s MH-60R and MH-60S Seahawks. It is worth noting that General Atomics, the MQ-9’s manufacturer, has touted the ability of its Mojave drone to carry loads of up to 16 Hellfires using the four-rail launchers.

Many of the MQ-9s with the larger AGM-114 loads have also been seen carrying a still-unidentified pod. The pod first emerged following the loss of two U.S. Reapers in what was said to have been a mid-air collision over Syria in 2020.

The mysterious pod has since been observed on MQ-9s operating in Romania, Japan, and South Korea. It is typically seen on Reapers that are also fitted with a very large ventral blade antenna under the rear of the fuselage. The pod’s exact purpose remains unconfirmed, but it is assumed to contain additional sensors and/or communications relay and data-sharing capabilities, as you can read more about here.

Why Reapers have begun flying more heavily armed missions from Aguadilla recently is unknown, but the loadouts are at odds with the scope and scale of the existing campaign of strikes on small boats in the region. Between September 2 and December 29, the U.S. military is known to have attacked 31 vessels in the Caribbean Sea, as well as the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This averages out to one strike every four days, a general tempo that does not point to an immediate need for more ordnance per sortie. At least a portion of these missions have been carried out by AC-130J gunships, as well. Questions about the legality of these operations and the underlying intelligence behind them also continue to be very hot topics of debate.

On Dec. 29, at the direction of @SecWar Pete Hegseth, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations in international waters. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known… pic.twitter.com/69ywxXk30N

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) December 29, 2025

For weeks now, TWZ has already been highlighting an influx of additional U.S. forces into the Caribbean that do not simply align with a bolstering of capacity to support counter-drug operations, or even more recent efforts to seize oil tankers as part of the maximum pressure campaign against the dictatorial regime in Venezuela. This includes the recent arrival of Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) CV-22 Osprey tiltrotors and MC-130J Commando II special operations tanker-transports at Aguadilla to join the MQ-9s. A host of other American air, naval, and ground assets have been flowing into the region for months now, as you can read more about here.

There is also now Trump’s disclosure of at least one covert action against a target inside Venezuela proper. To be clear, much about that operation, including exactly what the target was and what type of drone may have been used to strike it, remains murky.

The CIA is understood to operate a fleet of MQ-9s capable of flying armed missions. Earlier this year, reports said that the Agency’s Reapers had also been flying unarmed sorties over Mexico to snoop on drug cartels. At the same time, Reapers are not the only drones that the CIA has access to. Depending on the exact location and nature of the target, the attack could have been more localized and involved shorter-range armed uncrewed aerial systems, including ones under the control of individuals operating covertly inside the country, but this seems less likely to have been the case.

The aforementioned descriptions of the target in Venezuela as being a “port facility” and a “dock” would seem to point to something of substantial size. This, in turn, could well have necessitated the employment of a relatively large amount of ordnance, such as what we’ve recently been seeing on Puerto Rico-based MQ-9s, to ensure adequate destruction.

It is also worth noting here that there have long been strong indications of some form of overlap in both ownership and operational control of drones, including MQ-9s, between the CIA and the U.S. military’s secretive Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), as well as the U.S. Air Force. JSOC has been directly involved in at least some of the strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats in the Caribbean since September. In response to CNN‘s report, U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM), to which JSOC is technically assigned, did notably send that outlet an on-the-record statement denying any involvement in the recent strike in Venezuela.

More clandestine assets could still have been used instead, but there also would have been no real need to do so if something like a Reaper could have accomplished the job with a reasonable level of survivability. The strike on the target in Venezuela, which did not prompt any kind of immediate response on the part of Venezuelan authorities, at least that we know of, raises additional questions about the effectiveness of the country’s air defenses. Whether or not any standoff electronic warfare support, of which there is plenty in the region currently in the form of Navy EA-18 Growler jets and at least one Air Force EC-130H Compass Call plane, was utilized during the operation is unknown, but this seems likely to have been the case. As TWZ has explored in detail in the past, Venezuela’s air defense capabilities are limited, but could certainly present real threats.

A video posted to social media yesterday (20 Dec) shows the arrival of a USAF EC-130H at Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport (SJU/TJSJ) in Puerto Rico.

There are only a few EC-130Hs left in USAF inventory.

Credit/permission: pinchito.avgeek (IG). pic.twitter.com/IxqBaKSBtE

— LatAmMilMovements (@LatAmMilMVMTs) December 22, 2025

As already noted, it is not otherwise clear what new mission requirements and/or intelligence streams may have fueled the decision to begin arming MQ-9s flying from Puerto Rico with the significantly larger loads of Hellfires. The need to respond to drug cartels sending out larger waves of boats in order to survive, or to provide armed overwatch due to concerns about surface threats from small boats, are possibilities, but there are no indications so far of either of these being the case.

As a general point, taking direct action against a target in Venezuela does mark another significant escalation, regardless of how it was carried out. The full extent of plans now for this covert campaign, and whether it might be intended as a prelude to overt action, remain to be seen.

At the same time, the expanding Hellfire loads on Air Force MQ-9s flying from Puerto Rico add to the growing evidence that U.S. operations in the region, and with respect to Venezuela, specifically, are entering a major new phase.

Special thanks again to Michael Bonet for sharing his pictures of MQ-9 Reapers operating recently from Rafael Hernandez Airport with us.

Howard Altman contributed to this story.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

These are the key developments from day 1,406 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Wednesday, December 31:

Fighting

• Russian forces shelled the town of Kostiantynivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, killing one person, an official said. The deadly attack came a day after an attack in Druzhkivka killed another person and wounded four, according to the Ukrinform news agency.
• Russian forces also launched waves of attacks on the Black Sea ports of Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk in Ukraine’s Odesa region, hitting two Panama-flagged civilian vessels – Emmakris III and Captain Karam – as they approached to load wheat, the Ukrainian navy said.
• Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said that oil storage tanks were also hit in the port attacks.
• Authorities in Ukraine’s northern Chernihiv region introduced a mandatory evacuation order for the residents of 14 border villages in four districts. The order will affect some 300 people who still live in the Novhorod-Siverskyi, Semenivka, Snovsk, and Horodnya communities, which have been experiencing daily shelling, an official said.
• Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Energy Olha Yukhymchuk said that 75,000 households in Chernihiv remain without electricity following Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. There were also settlements in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions that were fully or partially without electricity, she said.
• Yukhymchuk also said that repair work had been completed on transmission lines near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to ensure “stable and reliable power supply to the station in the event of damage or shutdown of the Dniprovska overhead line due to” Russian shelling.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said it had taken control of two more settlements in eastern Ukraine. It identified them as the village ⁠of Lukianivske in the Zaporizhia region and ​the ‌settlement of Bohuslavka in the ‌Kharkiv ‌region.
• Russian authorities said that a Ukrainian ‍drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse ‍damaged port infrastructure and a gas pipeline in a residential area there. The regional administration said no ⁠injuries were reported.
• Other Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s Belgorod region killed a woman and wounded four other people, local authorities said.

Alleged attack on Putin’s residence

• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will “toughen” its negotiating position in talks on a deal to end the war in Ukraine as a “diplomatic consequence” of an alleged attempted drone attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in northwestern Russia’s Novgorod on Sunday.
• Peskov said the attack, which Ukraine denies, was aimed at collapsing the peace talks and accused Western media of playing along with Kyiv’s denial.
• Ukraine has dismissed the Russian claim as lies aimed at justifying additional attacks against Kyiv and prolonging the war.
• Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha said Russia had not provided any plausible evidence of its accusations. “And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened,” Sybiha said on X.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slammed countries, including India and the United Arab Emirates, that have condemned the alleged attack, which he said “didn’t even happen”. He called the moves “confusing and unpleasant”.
• China said “dialogue and negotiation” remain the only “viable way out of the Ukraine crisis”, when asked for a comment on the alleged attack on Putin’s residence.
• Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also called on “relevant parties to follow the principles of no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of fighting and no provocation by any party”, to work towards the de-escalation of the situation, and to “accumulate conditions for the political settlement of the crisis”.
• The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, said that its analysts found that the “circumstances” of the alleged attack did not fit the “pattern of observed evidence” usually seen “when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia”.
• The US ‌ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, cast doubt on Russia’s accusation, saying he wants to see US intelligence on the incident. “It is unclear whether it actually happened,” Whitaker told Fox Business’s Varney & Co.
• The ‍German ‍government also said it shares Ukraine’s concern that Russian ⁠allegations of the attack could be used as a pretext for ‍further ⁠escalation of Moscow’s war.

Diplomacy

• Zelenskyy said ‍that Ukraine and the Coalition of the Willing group of nations ⁠backing Kyiv plan to ​hold their next meetings at ‍the start of January. Zelenskyy said that the countries’ national ‍security advisers would ⁠meet in Ukraine on January 3, and with the leaders in France on January 6.
• He also told reporters that Kyiv was discussing with US President Donald Trump the possible ⁠presence of ​US troops in Ukraine ‍as part of security guarantees.
• “Of course, we are discussing this with President Trump and with representatives of the [Western] coalition [supporting Kyiv]. We want this. We would like this. This would be a ‍strong position of the security ⁠guarantees,” the Ukrainian president said.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told officials that there is reason to hope for peace in Ukraine quite soon. “Peace ⁠is on the horizon; there is no doubt that things ​have happened ‌that give grounds for hope that this war ‌can end, ‌and quite quickly, ⁠but it is still a hope, far ‌from 100 percent certain,” he said.
• Tusk said security guarantees offered to Kyiv ‌by the US were a reason to hope the conflict could end soon, but that Kyiv would need to compromise on territorial issues.
• The US removed sanctions on Alexandra Buriko, the former chief ⁠financial officer ​of Russia’s state-owned ‍Sberbank, according to the US Treasury Department.
• Buriko was among ​a ‌group of senior executives and board members who ‌resigned from Western-sanctioned ‌Sberbank shortly after ⁠Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. She sued the Treasury Department in a Washington federal court in December 2024, arguing she had severed ‌ties with Sberbank days after it was sanctioned and that her continued inclusion on ‌the sanctioned list was unlawful.

Weapons

• Romania’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the country would spend 50 million euros ($58m) to support a European initiative to buy weapons made by US companies for Ukraine, known as the Priority Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).
• Belarus ‌released a video of what it said was ‍the deployment on ‍its territory of the Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile system, a development meant to bolster Moscow’s ability to strike targets across Europe in the event of a war.

Gold and silver have seen a rollercoaster end to a year in which their prices are on track to record their biggest annual gains since 1979.

The price of gold soared by more than 60% this year to hit a record high of more than $4,549 (£3,378) an ounce before slipping after Christmas to stand at about $4,350 on New Year’s Eve.

At the same time, silver was trading at about $74 an ounce after hitting an all-time high of of $83.62 on Monday.

This year’s gains were fuelled by a number of reasons including expectations of more interest rate cuts, gold purchases by central banks and as investors buy so-called “safe haven” assets due to concerns about global tensions and economic uncertainty.

“Gold and silver prices are experiencing a notable rise due to the interplay of several economic, investment, and geopolitical factors,” said Rania Gule from trading platform XS.com.

The main driver of the price rises of precious metals, she added, are expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in 2026.

Also this year, central banks around the world added hundreds of tons of gold to their reserves, according to the World Gold Council trade association.

Daniel Takieddine, co-founder of investment firm Sky Links Capital Group, points to “supply tightness and industrial demand” for helping to push up the price of silver.

China, which is the world’s second biggest producer of silver, has said it would restrict the export of the precious metal.

In October, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced new restrictions on exports of silver as well as the metals tungsten and antimony to “to step up the protection of resources and the environment”.

Responding to a post on social media about Chinese government restrictions on silver exports, Tesla boss Elon Musk said: “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.”

Mr Takieddine also highlighted the large amounts of money that have flowed into the precious metals market through investments like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

ETFs are baskets of investments that trade on a stock exchange like a single stock. They can be seen as a convenient way to trade precious metals as investors do not have to take possession of physical bullion.

Ms Gule said she expects gold to continue to rise in 2026 but “at a more stable pace compared to the record highs observed in 2025”.

Silver also has the potential to rise again in the coming year, said Mr Takieddine. But he warns “rallies may be followed by sharper corrections.”

Eight European nations, Japan, and Canada on Tuesday expressed “serious concerns” about the renewed deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, Anadolu reports.

In a joint statement, foreign ministers of Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK recalled the “catastrophic” humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave.

The statement mentioned the appalling conditions that are exacerbated by winter, noting that 1.3 million Gazans still require urgent shelter assistance.

The foreign ministers cited the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report, which was published earlier in December, as evidence that the situation remains desperate.

The statement expressed their appreciation for the ceasefire in Gaza but stated that they will not lose sight of the plight of Gaza’s civilian population.

It called on Israel to ensure that the UN, its partners, and NGOs can continue their vital work and lift unreasonable restrictions on imports considered to have a dual use.

Saying that many established international NGO partners are at risk of being deregistered because of Israel’s restrictive new requirements, it warned that deregistration could result in the forced closure of humanitarian operations within 60 days in Gaza and the West Bank.

“This would have a severe impact on access to essential services including healthcare,” said the statement.

READ: Israeli Knesset passes bill halting electricity, water supply to UNRWA facilities

Ensuring UN, its partners can continue their vital work is ‘essential’

It also underlined that ensuring the UN and its partners can continue their vital work is “essential” to the impartial, neutral, and independent delivery of aid throughout Gaza.

“This includes UNRWA, which provides essential services, such as healthcare and education, to millions of Palestinian refugees,” said the foreign ministers.

The statement also called on Tel Aviv to open crossings and increase the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

“The target of 4,200 trucks per week, including an allocation of 250 UN trucks per day, should be a floor not a ceiling,” it said, adding that these targets should be lifted so they can be sure the vital supplies are getting in at the vast scale needed.

The nations also underlined that ongoing restrictions limit the capacity for aid to be delivered at the scale needed, in accordance with international humanitarian law, or for repairs to be made to support recovery and reconstruction efforts.

“We now urge the Government of Israel to remove these humanitarian access constraints, and to deliver and honour the Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” it added.

Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to keep Gaza’s crossings largely closed, preventing the entry of mobile homes and reconstruction materials and worsening the humanitarian crisis affecting over 2 million people.

Palestinian officials say that at least 414 people in Gaza have been killed since the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas took place on Oct. 10.

Since October 2023, Israeli attacks have killed over 71,000 Palestinians in the enclave, most of them women and children, and rendered it largely uninhabitable.

READ: 25 Palestinians die in Gaza amid severe weather since start of December

New-build F-15 Eagle fighters are headed to Israel again, with a contract for 25 new F-15IA aircraft placed with Boeing. These will be the first new Eagles that the country has acquired since 1999, when it received the last of its F-15I Ra’am jets and continues the enduring legacy of the F-15 in Israeli Air Force service.

The Pentagon announced on Monday that Boeing had been awarded a Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contract with a ceiling of $8.58 billion for the F-15 Israel Program. The contract covers the design, integration, instrumentation, test, production, and delivery of 25 new F-15IA aircraft, with an option for an additional 25. Work will be performed at St. Louis, Missouri, and is expected to be completed by the end of 2035. The aircraft will almost certainly feature extensive Israeli-specific modifications, as was the case with previous Eagles, especially when it comes to electronic warfare, weapons, and communications systems.

The contract announcement came after U.S. President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida.

In August 2024, Israel was given U.S. approval to buy as many as 50 F-15IAs, as well as upgrade its existing F-15Is as part of an overall package valued at $18.82 billion that you can read about here.

Subsequently, in November of last year, the Israeli Ministry of Defense announced that it had agreed to buy the 25 F-15IAs, reserving the option to buy the other 25 jets.

At that point, the Israeli Ministry of Defense said that deliveries of the F-15IAs would start in 2031, with between four and six aircraft being supplied annually. The stated cost was $5.2 billion, and it’s not exactly clear why that has since increased substantially. We reached out to Boeing for clarification, and the company deferred to the U.S. government.

“The new F-15IA will be equipped with cutting-edge weapon systems, including state-of-the-art Israeli technologies,” the ministry said at the time. “The upgraded aircraft will feature enhanced range capabilities, increased payload capacity, and improved performance across various operational scenarios.”

As we have discussed in the past, the F-15IA that Israel will be receiving is based on the F-15EX used by the U.S. Air Force.

In the past, Boeing and the U.S. Air Force have both stressed the aircraft’s range and stores-carrying capabilities. In a U.S. context, these attributes are seen as being especially relevant for operations across the vast expanses of the Pacific. Meanwhile, Israel has long prized the F-15 for its ability to strike targets at long range while carrying heavy loads of ordnance.

The latest versions of the F-15 also have a notable ability to carry outsize weapons, including hypersonic missiles, as well as simply larger numbers of legacy weapons. Once again, this is a feature of the jet that will be of particular interest to Israel. The Israeli Air Force’s recent operations against Iran have demonstrated the increasing importance of air-launched ballistic missiles and other air-launched standoff weapons, which would also be very well suited to the F-15IA.

The 25 new F-15IAs will provide the Israeli Air Force with an additional Eagle squadron. This will double the number of strike-optimized F-15s available to the service. Currently, the 25 F-15I Ra’am jets, delivered in the second half of the 1990s, serve with 69 Squadron “Hammers” at Hatzerim Air Base.

While it’s unclear for now if the F-15I fleet will also be upgraded, as once proposed, it seems reasonable to assume that the F-15IAs will go some way toward replacing the older F-15A-to-D Baz, which survive with two squadrons stationed at Tel Nof Air Base, which you can read more about here. If the F-15I fleet is upgraded, it would parallel the approach taken by Saudi Arabia, which bought new-build F-15SA jets and upgraded existing F-15S aircraft to the same standard.

The Baz is used for both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, but these are mainly very old jets, with the first examples having seen combat as long ago as 1979. Successively upgraded and also bolstered through transfers from U.S. Air Force stocks, these jets remain very valuable to the Israeli Air Force, as demonstrated by their prominent role in recent combat operations.

The F-15IA deal has been widely viewed through the prism of the conflict that began in the Middle East after the surprise attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, 2023.

However, Israeli interest in buying more F-15s dates back many years; it is Israel’s continued demand for F-15s of any kind that has seen the aging Baz jets progressively upgraded to keep them in frontline service.

Whatever color they are painted, F-15s are very much one of Israel’s primary long-range strike weapons.

At the same time, the F-35I Adir fighter is increasingly becoming a weapon of choice for combat missions both in close proximity to Israel and over much greater distances.

With that in mind, Israel has opted for procuring a mix of fighters, the benefits of which we have described in the past:

“Buying the F-15IA and F-35I will provide the Israeli Air Force with two complementary platforms, both of which are among the most capable anywhere in the world, especially when it comes to long-range strike. Israeli F-15s, in particular, are also used for forward networking and command and control nodes, vital for managing long-range operations. On the other hand, both the F-15IA and F-35I are also more than efficient for air defense, including against drone threats, as well as air-to-ground operations closer to Israel, such as the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.”

As part of this strategy, Israel opted to buy a third squadron of F-35Is last year. Covering 25 more F-35Is worth approximately $3 billion, this will expand the Israeli Air Force Adir fleet to 75 aircraft. The latest batch of the stealth jets will begin to be delivered in 2028, meaning at least some will be delivered in parallel with the F-15IA.

Whether Israel chooses to add more F-15s or even upgrades, the current security situation in the Middle East means it would be unwise to rule out the prospect of further combat aircraft acquisitions.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

BREAKINGBREAKING,

Mamady Doumbouya faced eight rivals for the presidency, but the main opposition leaders were barred from running.

Guinea coup leader ⁠Mamady Doumbouya has ​been ‍elected president, according ‍to provisional results, paving the way for a ​return ‌to civilian governing after a military takeover nearly five years ago.

The provisional ‌results announced on Tuesday showed Doumbouya winning ‌86.72 percent of the vote held on ⁠December 28 – an absolute majority that allows him to avoid a runoff.

The ‌Supreme Court has eight days to validate the results in the ‍event of any challenge.

Doumbouya, 41, faced eight rivals for the presidency, but the main opposition leaders were barred from running and had urged a boycott of the vote.

The former special forces commander seized power in 2021, toppling then-President Alpha Conde, who had been in office since 2010. It was one in ​a series of ‌nine coups that have reshaped politics in West and Central Africa since 2020.

The UAE says it’s withdrawing all ‘counterterrorism’ units from Yemen after a Saudi-led coalition launched air strikes on a port in southern Yemen. Riyadh has accused the Emiratis of shipping weapons and military vehicles to aid Yemen’s separatist movement, an accusation Abu Dhabi denies.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has accused Israel of violating international law and of ‘illegal aggression’.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned Israel’s decision to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state, calling the move “illegitimate and unacceptable”.

At a joint news conference with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan warned that Israel’s recognition of the breakaway region of Somalia could destabilise the Horn of Africa.

He added that Turkiye and Somalia were deepening energy cooperation after promising signs from joint offshore exploration efforts.

“Preserving the unity and integrity of Somalia in all circumstances holds special importance in our view. Israel’s decision to recognise Somaliland is illegitimate and unacceptable,” Erdogan said.

“The Netanyahu government has the blood of 71,000 of our Palestinian brothers and sisters on its hands. Now it is trying to destabilise the Horn of Africa as well, after its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, Qatar and Syria,” he added, referring to Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

Israel became the first and only country to formally recognise Somaliland last Friday, describing the move as being in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, which normalised ties between Israel and several Arab nations.

‘Illegal aggression’

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the central government after a civil war. Despite maintaining its own currency, passport and army, it has failed to gain international recognition.

Standing alongside Ergogan, Mohamud accused Israel of “illegal aggression”, saying the recognition breaches the United Nations charter and African Union agreements.

“Israel is exporting its problems in Gaza and Palestine, and it is trying to divert the attention of the entire world, including the Arab and Islamic world,” he later told Al Jazeera in an interview.

“Israel will resort to forcibly displacing Palestinians in Somalia. It also wants to control strategically important waterways that connect vital seas, both commercially and economically, between the Red Sea, the Gulf, and the Gulf of Aden.”

Destabilising Africa

Mohamud warned that the move would have international consequences and also said it could mark the beginning of instability in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia.

He recalled that Turkiye had previously played a mediating role between Somalia and Somaliland and continues to support efforts to resolve the dispute peacefully.

Abdinor Dahir, an independent researcher, said that Turkiye has invested heavily in Somalia, supporting its security forces and political process, while mediating talks between Somalia and Somaliland.

Israel’s recognition “threatens Turkiye’s economic interests” and presence in the country and “poses a direct challenge to Somalia’s sovereignty”, he told Al Jazeera.

Dahir warned that Somalia, which has endured years of civil war and continues to fight armed groups including al-Shabab and ISIL (ISIS), has made progress on security, which could be undermined by the move.

The recognition risks “destabilising the wider African region, and could transfer the Middle East conflict into the Horn of Africa”, he said.

Israel says it will suspend more than two dozen humanitarian organisations, including Doctors Without Borders, for failing to meet its new rules for aid groups working in the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.

Organisations facing bans starting on Thursday didn’t meet new requirements for sharing information on their staffs, funding and operations, Israeli authorities said.

Other major organisations affected include the Norwegian Refugee Council, CARE International, the International Rescue Committee and divisions of major charities such as Oxfam and Caritas.

Israel accused Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF, of failing to clarify the roles of some staff members, alleging they cooperated with Hamas.

“The message is clear: Humanitarian assistance is welcome. The exploitation of humanitarian frameworks for terrorism is not,” Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said.

MSF – one of the largest medical groups operating in Gaza, where the health sector has been targeted and largely destroyed – said Israel’s decision will have a catastrophic impact on its work in the enclave, where it supports about 20 percent of the hospital beds and one-third of births. The organisation also denied Israel’s accusations about its staff.

“MSF would never knowingly employ people engaging in military activity,” it said.

International organisations said Israel’s rules are arbitrary. Israel said 37 groups working in Gaza didn’t have their permits renewed.

‘Appalling conditions’

Aid organisations help with a variety of social services, including food distribution, healthcare, mental health and disability services, and education.

Amjad Shawa from the Palestine NGOs Network said the decision by Israel is part of its ongoing effort  “to deepen the humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.

“The limitations on the humanitarian operations in Gaza are in order to continue their project to push out the Palestinians, deport Gaza. This is one of the things Israel continues doing,” Shawa told Al Jazeera.

Israel’s move comes as at least 10 countries expressed “serious concerns” about a “renewed deterioration of the humanitarian situation” in Gaza, describing it as “catastrophic”.

“As winter draws in civilians in Gaza are facing appalling conditions with heavy rainfall and temperatures dropping,” Britain, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Japan, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland said in a joint statement.

“1.3 million people still require urgent shelter support. More than half of health facilities are only partially functional and face shortages of essential medical equipment and supplies. The total collapse of sanitation infrastructure has left 740,000 people vulnerable to toxic flooding.”

The countries urged Israel to ensure international NGOs can operate in Gaza in a “sustained and predictable” way and called for the opening of land crossings to boost the flow of humanitarian aid.

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the joint statement “false but unsurprising” and “part of a recurring pattern of detached criticism and one-sided demands on Israel while deliberately ignoring the essential requirement ‌of disarming Hamas”.

‘Needs in Gaza are enormous’

Four months ago, more than 100 aid groups accused Israel of obstructing life-saving aid from entering Gaza and called on it to end its “weaponisation of aid” as it refused to allow aid trucks to enter the battered Gaza Strip.

More than 71,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023. Hundreds have died from severe malnutrition and thousands more from preventable diseases because of a lack of medical supplies.

Israel claims it’s upholding the aid commitments laid out in the latest ceasefire, which took effect on October 10, but humanitarian groups dispute Israel’s numbers and say a lot more aid is desperately needed in the devastated enclave of more than two million Palestinians.

Israel changed its registration process for aid groups in March, which included a requirement to submit a list of staff, including Palestinians in Gaza.

Some aid groups said they didn’t submit a list of Palestinian staff for fear those employees would be targeted by Israel.

“It comes from a legal and safety perspective. In Gaza, we saw hundreds of aid workers get killed,” said Shaina Low, communications adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council.

Desperately needed lifelines

The decision not to renew aid groups’ licences means their offices in Israel and occupied East Jerusalem will close and organisations won’t be able to send international staff or aid into Gaza.

“Despite the ceasefire, the needs in Gaza are enormous, and yet we and dozens of other organisations are and will continue to be blocked from bringing in essential lifesaving assistance,” Low said. “Not being able to send staff into Gaza means all of the workload falls on our exhausted local staff.”

Israel’s decision means the aid groups will have their licences revoked on Thursday and, if they are located in Israel, they will need to leave by March 1, according to the ministry.

This isn’t the first time Israel has tried to crack down on international humanitarian organisations. Throughout the war, it accused the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, of being infiltrated by Hamas and Hamas of using UNRWA’s facilities and taking its aid. The UN has denied that.

In October, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion saying Israel must support UN relief efforts in Gaza, including those conducted by UNRWA.

The court found Israel’s allegations against UNRWA – including that it was complicit in the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel – were unsubstantiated.

The court also said Israel, as the occupying power, must ensure the “basic needs” of the Palestinian population of Gaza are met, “including the supplies essential for survival”, such as food, water, shelter, fuel and medicine.

A number of countries halted funding for UNRWA after Israel’s accusations, jeopardising one of Gaza’s most desperately needed lifelines.

A newfound ‘openness’

The trouble with prosecutorial independence, however, is that it has not been codified in US law.

Instead, it is a norm that has developed over more than a century, stretching back to the earliest days of the Justice Department.

While the role of the attorney general dates back to 1789, the Justice Department itself is a more recent creation. It was established in 1870, during the Reconstruction period following the US Civil War.

That period was marked by an increasing rejection of political patronage: the system of rewarding political allies with favours and jobs.

Reformers argued that, rather than having law enforcement officers scattered across various government agencies, consolidating them in one department would make them less susceptible to political influence.

That premise, however, has been tested over the subsequent decades, most notably in the early 1970s under then-President Richard Nixon.

Nixon courted scandal by appearing to wield the threat of prosecutions against his political rivals — while dropping cases that harmed his allies.

In one instance, he allegedly ordered the Justice Department to drop its antitrust case against the company International Telephone and Telegraph (ITT) in exchange for financial backing at the Republican National Convention.

Key Justice Department officials were also implicated in the Watergate scandal, which involved an attempted break-in at Democratic Party headquarters.

But Sklansky, the Stanford Law professor, noted that Nixon tended to operate through back channels. He avoided any public calls to prosecute his rivals.

“He believed that, if he called for that openly, he would’ve been pilloried not just by Democrats but by Republicans,” Sklansky said. “And that was undoubtedly true at the time.”

But Sklansky believes the second Trump administration has abandoned such discretion in favour of a public display of power over the Justice Department.

“Trump’s openness about the use of the Justice Department to go after his enemies is really something that is quite new,” he said.

Belarus has announced the deployment on its territory of Russia’s still-shadowy Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. The development comes soon after the appearance of satellite imagery that suggests that Moscow is likely stationing the nuclear-capable missiles in Belarus. However, there remain questions about the status of the Oreshnik, as well as its overall capabilities.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense today released a video that it says shows the deployment of the Oreshnik system on its territory. The footage shows a flag-raising ceremony involving Russian troops in Belarus as well as a column of vehicles moving out into a firing position in the field, where they are then covered in camouflage netting.

It’s notable that the vehicles shown appear to all be associated with support roles, rather than being transporter-erector launchers (TEL) for the missile itself. It could be the case that the TELs (and missiles) have yet to arrive in Belarus, or that they were deliberately omitted from the footage. It may also be that the missiles themselves are based elsewhere.

A senior officer is seen telling troops that the systems have officially been placed on combat duty and talks about the missile crews’ regular training and reconnaissance drills.

The location of the missile systems and the date of the video were not disclosed.

The release of the video follows Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s announcement earlier this month that the Oreshnik would be deployed in his country, part of his extensive military support for his staunch ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Only last week, evidence emerged pointing to the likely stationing of the Oreshnik at a former airbase near Krichev (also known as Krichev-6) in eastern Belarus, around 190 miles east of the capital of Minsk, and 300 miles southwest of Moscow.

After assessing available satellite imagery, researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, in California, and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research and analysis organization in Virginia, said they were “90 percent certain” that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be stationed there, if they weren’t already.

Lewis and Eveleth highlighted a hurried construction project that began at the site between August 4-12, which was consistent with a Russian strategic missile base. By November of this year, key evidence included a “military-grade rail transfer point” surrounded by a security fence, from where TELs and other components could be unloaded. There were also signs of a concrete pad being constructed at the end of the former runway, “consistent with a camouflaged launch point.”

According to Lewis and Eveleth, the site near Krichev is large enough to accommodate three launchers. Previously, Lukashenko said up to 10 Oreshniks would be based in Belarus, suggesting that more might yet be fielded at other locations.

The researchers’ assessment “broadly aligns with U.S. intelligence findings,” Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with the matter who spoke to the news agency on the condition of anonymity.

After a December 2024 meeting with Lukashenko, Putin had made clear his plan to station Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, but the exact location had not previously been reported. The Russian leader had said the deployment would occur in the second half of 2025.

As for the Oreshnik (Russian for hazel tree) system itself, U.S. officials have said this is an intermediate-range design derived from the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The new missile first emerged in public after it was used in an unprecedented attack on Ukraine in November 2024. Ukrainian authorities said that the missile that was fired at them carried six warheads, each containing six more sub-payloads, but that these contained no explosives.

Ok, two reasons why I think Russia probably used a variant of the long-gestating RS-26 Rubezh IRBM: (1) Russia hinted that it resumed development of the RS-26 this summer and (2) that’s what the Ukrainians predicated a day ago, down to the launch site. https://t.co/eUIPx7eqVt

— Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) November 21, 2024

Otherwise, details about the Oreshnik remain limited. After its use against Ukraine, Putin described it as a “medium-range missile system” and “a ballistic missile equipped with non-nuclear hypersonic technology” capable of reaching a peak speed of Mach 10. “The kinetic impact is powerful, like a meteorite falling,” the Russian president also said.

Overall, Russian claims of hypersonic performance for the Oreshnik are questionable. There is no evidence of true hypersonic boost-glide vehicles, for example, but larger ballistic missiles, even ones with traditional designs, do reach hypersonic speeds, typically defined as anything above Mach 5, in the terminal stage of their flight.

The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed that Russia struck the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a conventionally armed ICBM this morning, marking the first combat use of an ICBM in history.

Footage from Dnipro showed glowing reentry vehicles hitting the ground around 5 AM local time. pic.twitter.com/PWTGajH9bT

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 21, 2024

Western estimates suggest the missile has a range of up to 3,400 miles.

While positioning the Oreshnik marginally farther west does extend its reach further into Europe, the difference is less significant, bearing in mind its already considerable maximum range is enough to hit every NATO capital city in Europe from within Russian territory. With that in mind, stationing these missiles in Belarus does little to practically enhance Moscow’s ability to deliver these kinds of weapons across Europe.

In fact, the missile’s likely minimum range, forward deploying the Oreshnik to Belarus might actually limit the ability to employ it against certain targets, such as those in Ukraine. For example, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv lies less than 60 miles from the border with Belarus.

Another option might be to use a very high lofted trajectory that would allow the missile to hit targets at shorter ranges, but there would still be a limit to what could be achieved in this way. At the same time, we don’t know for sure what kinds of trajectories the Oreshnik can actually be fired on.

Regardless, the deployment does carry important political and strategic signals. It means that Belarusian and Russian affairs are even more deeply intertwined, with the former firmly and openly under the protection of the latter’s nuclear deterrent umbrella. Russia had already begun deploying nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory in cooperation with that country’s armed forces in 2023.

Russia really wants West to see they’re doing a tac nuke exercise. After several exercise videos they put the head of the 12 GUMO in front of a Belarusian Su-25 (possibly at Lida air base) loaded with what is said to be “training nuclear ammunition.” https://t.co/h9rHp2qvGv pic.twitter.com/sTzAqSNd9f

— Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) (@nukestrat) June 13, 2024

Placing these missiles (and air-dropped nuclear bombs) in Belarus is indicative of the Kremlin’s new nuclear strategy, which includes basing these kinds of weapons outside its territory for the first time since the Cold War.

The apparent deployment also comes only weeks before the expiration of the 2010 New START pact, the last U.S.-Russia treaty that puts limits on the deployments of strategic nuclear weapons by these two powers.

For NATO, it’s very much arguable whether Russia’s placing of the Oreshnik in neighboring Belarus, rather than on Russian territory, will really be seen as a more direct threat.

“The military implications of this missile being in Belarus are not all that different from the missile being in Russia — the technical support site is already very close to the Russian border,” Eveleth wrote on X last week.

For Belarus, the situation is different. For a country in the international wilderness, the deployment does underscore Russia’s guarantee of providing Belarus with (nuclear) protection.

Russia’s revised nuclear stance also relies increasingly on these kinds of weapons to deter NATO members from supplying Kyiv with weapons that can strike deep inside Russia, although it’s questionable whether placing the Oreshnik in Belarus will have a significant, if any, effect in this regard.

More generally, the deployment of the Oreshnik has to be seen as part of Moscow’s response to U.S. plans to send its own intermediate-range strike capabilities to Germany, and potentially elsewhere in Europe, in the coming years. This includes planned “episodic deployments” of the U.S. Army’s Typhon ground-based missile system, which can fire Tomahawk cruise missiles and multi-purpose SM-6 missiles, as well as that service’s still-in-development Dark Eagle hypersonic missile. The U.S. Navy has also demonstrated its ability to deploy containerized launchers related to Typhon, which can be employed in a ground-based mode and also fire Tomahawks and SM-6s, to sites in Europe.

While these U.S. long-range strike systems are all conventionally armed, it’s worth recalling that the Oreshnik, too, can be utilized in a non-nuclear version, as demonstrated in Ukraine. The missile, therefore, presents a longer-range strategic-level threat that can be employed without crossing the nuclear threshold.

The potential value of a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which some countries may be looking at fielding if they haven’t already, is something that we discussed in detail in this previous story.

Provided that the Oreshnik is indeed now deployed on Belarusian territory, we still don’t know how many missiles might be involved, or what kinds of warheads they might carry. While we may learn more in due course, for now, the missile’s greatest significance is in the political domain.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Washington accuses Tehran and Caracas of ‘reckless proliferation of deadly weapons’ amid spiraling tensions.

Washington, DC – The United States has issued sanctions against a Venezuelan company over accusations that it helped acquire Iranian-designed drones as Washington’s tensions with both Tehran and Caracas escalate.

The penalties on Tuesday targeted Empresa Aeronautica Nacional SA (EANSA), a Venezuelan firm that the US Department of the Treasury said “maintains and oversees the assembly of” drones from Iran’s Qods Aviation Industries, which is already under sanctions by Washington.

The department also sanctioned the company’s chairman, Jose Jesus Urdaneta Gonzalez, accusing him of coordinating “with members and representatives of the Venezuelan and Iranian armed forces on the production of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] in Venezuela”.

“Treasury is holding Iran and Venezuela accountable for their aggressive and reckless proliferation of deadly weapons around the world,” Treasury official John Hurley said in a statement.

“We will continue to take swift action to deprive those who enable Iran’s military-industrial complex access to the US financial system,” he said. The sanctions freeze any assets of the targeted firms and individuals in the US and make it generally illegal for American citizens to engage in financial transactions with them.

In its statement, the US alleged Tehran and Caracas have coordinated the “provision” of drones to Venezuela since 2006.

Iran’s Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) has been under US sanctions since 2020 for what Washington said is its role in both selling and procuring weapons. The US is by far the largest weapons exporter in the world.

On Tuesday, the US Treasury Department also imposed new sanctions against several Iranians it accused of links to Iran’s arms industry.

The actions came a day after President Donald Trump threatened more strikes against Iran if the country rebuilds its missile capabilities or nuclear programme.

The US had joined Israel in its attacks against Iran in June and bombed the country’s three main nuclear sites before a ceasefire ended a 12-day escalation.

“Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down,” Trump said on Monday during a joint news conference with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We’ll knock them down. We’ll knock the hell out of them. But hopefully, that’s not happening.”

Iran was quick to respond to Trump’s threats.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to any oppressive aggression will be harsh and regrettable,” President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote in a social media post.

The Trump administration has also taken a confrontational approach towards Venezuela.

The US president announced this week that the US “hit” a dock in the Latin American country that he said was used to load drug boats. Details of the nature of the strike remain unclear.

Trump and some of his top aides have falsely suggested that Venezuela’s oil belongs to the US. Washington has also accused Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, without evidence, of leading a drug trafficking organisation.

The Trump administration has simultaneously been carrying out strikes against what it says are drug-running vessels in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, a campaign that many legal experts said violates US and international law and is tantamount to extrajudicial killings.

Over the past month, the US also has seized at least two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela after Trump announced a naval blockade against the country.

Venezuela has rejected the US moves as “piracy” and accused the Trump administration of seeking to topple Maduro’s government.

Trump is seeking to end protected status for South Sudan, claiming country no longer poses danger to those returning.

A federal judge has blocked the administration of President Donald Trump from stripping temporary protections from deportations for South Sudanese citizens living in the United States.

US District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston, Massachusetts, granted an emergency request on Tuesday in a lawsuit filed by several South Sudanese nationals and an immigrant rights group.

The order prevents the temporary protected status (TPS) for South Sudanese citizens from expiring on January 5 as the Trump administration has sought.

The lawsuit, led by the African ‍Communities Together, accuses the US Department of Homeland Security of acting unlawfully in its effort to strip South Sudanese citizens of TPS, a US immigration status granted to citizens of countries experiencing natural disasters, conflict or other extraordinary circumstances that could make return to their homelands dangerous.

The status was initially granted for South Sudan in 2011 when the country officially broke away from Sudan. It has been repeatedly renewed amid repeated bouts of fighting, widespread displacement and regional instability.

​The status allows eligible individuals to work and receive temporary protection from deportation.

The lawsuit further alleged that the Trump administration exposed South Sudan citizens to being deported to a country facing what is widely considered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, in a notice published on November ‌5, had argued the country no longer met the conditions for TPS.

“With the renewed peace in South Sudan, their demonstrated commitment to ensuring the safe reintegration of returning nationals, and improved diplomatic relations, now is the right time to conclude what was always intended to ‌be a temporary designation,” she said, appearing to refer to a tenuous 2018 peace agreement.

The statement contradicted the findings of a panel of United Nations experts, who wrote in a report to the UN Security Council in November that “while the contours of the conflict may be altered, the resulting human suffering has remained unchanged.”

“Ongoing conflict and aerial bombardments, coupled with flooding and the influx of returnees and refugees from the Sudan, have led to near-record levels of food insecurity, with pockets of famine reported in some of the communities most affected by renewed fighting,” it added.

The Trump administration has increasingly targeted TPS as part of its crackdown on immigration and its mass deportation drive.

It has moved to similarly ‌end TPS for foreign nationals from countries including Syria, Venezuela, Haiti, ⁠Cuba and Nicaragua, prompting several court challenges.

It has also sought to deport individuals to countries in Africa, even if they have no ties there.

Russia has threatened to retaliate against Ukraine after alleging that nearly 100 drones had targeted one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residences.

The threat on Monday was made as United States President Donald Trump tries to broker a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine, which will enter its fifth year in February.

What has Russia claimed?

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged that Ukraine had launched the attack on the Valdai residence, one of Putin’s residences in the Novgorod region in northwestern Russia. The property is 360km (225 miles) north of Moscow.

Lavrov told reporters that Ukraine had launched 91 drones towards the residence. He added that air defence systems shot down the drones and no one was injured.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said 49 of the drones were shot down over the Bryansk region, one was shot down over the Smolensk region and 41 were shot down over the Novgorod region while en route.

“Such reckless actions will not go unanswered,” Lavrov said. “The targets for retaliatory strikes and the timing of their implementation by the Russian armed forces have been determined.”

Russian officials accused Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of carrying out the strike to derail the prospects of a peace agreement.

In an apparent reference to Zelenskyy, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev wrote on X: “The stinking Kiev b**tard is trying to derail the settlement of the conflict. He wants war. Well, now at least he’ll have to stay in hiding for the rest of his worthless life.”

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said the strike took place on Sunday “practically immediately after” talks were held in Florida between Trump and Zelenskyy on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine.

After that meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy had voiced optimism, saying a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine was “close”.

Putin has not publicly commented on the attack yet. It is unclear where Putin was at the time of the attack, but he was holding meetings in the Kremlin on Saturday and Monday.

How has Ukraine responded?

Zelenskyy has strongly denied Russia’s allegation that Ukraine attacked one of Putin’s residences.

“Russia is at it again, using dangerous statements to undermine all achievements of our shared diplomatic efforts with President Trump’s team,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on Monday.

“This alleged ‘residence strike’ story is a complete fabrication intended to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also condemned Moscow’s claims, saying they were designed to undermine the negotiations.

In a post on X, Sybiha said the claim was intended “to create a pretext and false justification for Russia’s further attacks against Ukraine, as well as to undermine and impede the peace process”.

In another post on Tuesday, Sybiha wrote: “Almost a day passed and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged ‘attack on Putin’s residence.’ And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened.”

How has Trump reacted?

Trump appeared to accept the Russian version of events on Monday when he told reporters: “It’s one thing to be offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that. And I learned about it from President Putin today. I was very angry about it.”

But when reporters asked Trump if US intelligence agencies had evidence of the alleged attack, Trump said: “We’ll find out.”

Congressman Don Bacon, a member of Trump’s Republican Party, criticised the president for accepting the Russian account of events without assessing the facts.

“President Trump and his team should get the facts first before assuming blame. Putin is a well known boldface liar,” Bacon wrote in an X post.

How have other world leaders reacted?

Like Trump, other leaders appeared to accept the Russian allegations.

In a statement released on Monday, the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs wrote: “The United Arab Emirates has strongly condemned the attempt to target the residence of His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, and denounced this deplorable attack and the threat it poses to security and stability.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote in an X post on Tuesday: “Deeply concerned by reports of the targeting of the residence of the President of the Russian Federation.”

Modi added that the ongoing diplomatic engagement being led by the US is the “most viable path” towards achieving peace. “We urge all concerned to remain focused on these efforts and to avoid any actions that could undermine them.”

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also condemned the alleged attack.

“Pakistan condemns the reported targeting of the residence of His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation. Such a heinous act constitutes a grave threat to peace, security, and stability, particularly at a time when efforts aimed at peace are underway,” Sharif wrote on X.

“Pakistan expresses its solidarity with the President of the Russian Federation, and with the government and people of Russia.”

Have Putin’s residences previously been attacked?

Russia has made previous claims of Ukrainian attacks on Putin’s residences, including on the Kremlin, Putin’s official residence and main workplace.

In May 2023, Moscow alleged that Ukraine had deployed two drones to attack Putin’s residence in the Kremlin citadel but said its forces had disabled the drones. Kyiv denied any involvement.

On December 25, 2024, Russia alleged that it had intercepted and destroyed a Ukrainian drone also targeting the Kremlin. Kyiv again denied responsibility.

Conversely, Ukraine has alleged that Russia has attacked Kyiv and other government buildings in Ukraine.

In September, the Ukrainian military said a Russian drone attack damaged a government building in Kyiv that is home to Ukraine’s cabinet. Plumes of smoke were seen emerging from the building. Russia said it had targeted Ukrainian military infrastructure only.

What has Russia now threatened to do?

While Russia has not outright threatened to end the peace talks, Moscow said it would realign its position in the talks.

“The diplomatic consequence will be to toughen the negotiating position of the Russian Federation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that Moscow’s response “would not be diplomatic”. Indeed, it has warned that it plans to hit back militarily but has given no details of how or when it might do this.

Will this derail the US-led peace talks?

Speaking to reporters after his “terrific” meeting with Zelenskyy on Sunday at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, Trump told reporters that Moscow and Kyiv were “closer than ever” to a peace deal.

But Trump has made this claim several times before. In April, Trump said Russia and Ukraine were “very close to a deal” after Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Moscow.

On December 15, Trump also said Russia and Ukraine were “closer than ever” to a deal after talks in Berlin involving Zelenskyy and the leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and NATO.

However, observers and analysts said the issue of territorial concessions remains a major sticking point. Trump’s 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which he unveiled in November, involved Ukraine ceding large amounts of land that Russia has occupied during nearly four years of war. Zelenskyy has stated on numerous occasions that this is a line Ukraine will not cross.

Most analysts are sceptical that any progress has been made on this point and said the latest accusations against Ukraine will probably have little effect. “I don’t think there is anything to derail at this point,” said Marina Miron, an analyst at King’s College London.

The peace process “is not going well due to disagreements on key issues between Ukraine and Russia”, she told Al Jazeera.

“Trump has repeatedly claimed that a peace deal is close without sustainable agreement,” Keir Giles, a Russian military expert at the London think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera this month.

Russia has occupied nearly 20 percent of eastern Ukraine and has been slowly gaining territory as Ukraine’s military has been weakened by desertions, casualties and dwindling military aid. Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

“It’s probably impossible that Ukrainians will voluntarily withdraw from these territories unless we will also see a withdrawal of Russian forces on the other side,” Nathalie Tocci, director at the Rome-based think tank Istituto Affari Internazionali (Institute of International Affairs), told Al Jazeera.

Giles said there are still parallel negotiation tracks, however – one involving the US and Ukraine and another between Ukraine and European nations. He added, however, that there is no clear evidence that these efforts are fully coordinated or aligned in terms of strategy.

South Korea has announced it’s ending bear bile farming over animal cruelty concerns. The controversial industry was used for traditional medicine, but questions over its effectiveness knocked its popularity in recent years.

Caracas, December 30, 2025 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has reportedly bombed a target inside Venezuelan territory.

According to CNN, citing “sources familiar with the matter,” the CIA carried out a drone strike against a “remote dock on the Venezuelan.” US officials allegedly believed the facility was being used for drug storage and shipping.

There was reportedly no one present on site during the attack, which is only specified to have taken place “earlier this month.” A New York Times report, likewise relying on anonymous sources, presented similar claims and added that the strike took place last Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump first alluded to a purported strike inside Venezuelan territory during an interview on Friday, claiming that US forces had destroyed a “big facility where ships come from” two days earlier. 

Trump elaborated on a Monday press conference, adding that the site was along the Venezuelan shore and that there was a “big explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs.”

US agencies have not confirmed the attack, with the CIA, the White House and the Pentagon refusing comment. Analysts relying on open source data tracked no signs of an explosion on the Venezuelan coast in recent days.

For its part, Venezuelan authorities have not released any statements on the matter.

If confirmed, the land strikes would mark a significant escalation in the US’ military campaign against Venezuela. Since August, the Trump administration has amassed the largest build-up in decades in the Caribbean and launched dozens of strikes against small boats accused of narcotics trafficking, killing over 100 civilians in the process.

Trump has repeatedly vowed to bomb purported drug targets inside Venezuelan territory while escalating regime change threats against the Nicolás Maduro government. The White House allegedly approved lethal CIA operations in the country in October.

Despite recurrent “narcoterrorism” accusations against Maduro and other high-ranking Venezuelan officials, Washington has not provided court-tested evidence to back the claims. Specialized agencies have consistently shown Venezuela to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.

In recent weeks, Trump has turned his discourse toward Venezuelan oil, claiming that the Caribbean nation had “stolen” oil rights from US corporations during nationalization processes in the 2000s and 1970s. 

The US president ordered a naval blockade against Venezuelan oil exports, with US forces seizing two oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude in international waters earlier this month. A third vessel reportedly refused to be boarded and headed toward the Atlantic Ocean. According to Reuters, US forces have been ordered to enforce a “quarantine” of Venezuelan oil in the next two months in order to exacerbate the South American country’s economic struggles. 

A group of UN experts issued a statement on December 24 condemning the US’ maritime blockade as “violating fundamental rules of international law.”

“The illegal use of force, and threats to use further force at sea and on land, gravely endanger the human right to life and other rights in Venezuela and the region,” the experts affirmed, while urging UN member-states to take measures to stop the blockade and the vessel bombings.

The attempted blockade builds on widespread US economic sanctions, particularly targeting the Venezuelan oil industry, the country’s most important revenue source. US coercive measures have been classified as “collective punishment” and found responsible for tens of thousands of civilian deaths.

For its part, the Maduro government has condemned US “acts of piracy” in capturing oil tankers and blasted the Trump administration’s actions as blatant attempts to seize Venezuela’s natural resources.

Caracas has received diplomatic backing from its main allies, with China and Russia both condemning Washington’s military escalations as violations of international law. However, a recent UN Security Council meeting convened by Venezuela produced no resolutions.