NEWS

Published On 8 Sep 20268 Sep 2026

Russia has struck Kyiv after a three-day pause in attacks on the Ukrainian and Russian capitals expired, following a visit by two US envoys that yielded no tangible progress towards peace.

Two residential buildings were damaged by Russian air raids early on Tuesday, city officials in Kyiv said. Drones hit buildings in the capital city as well as in the Boryspil and Fastiv districts on the outskirts of Kyiv, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

An air raid alert, published by the Kyiv city military administration, urged residents to take shelter due to the threat of an “enemy” drone attack.

Following the reported attacks in Ukraine, Russian regional Governor Roman Busargin said a Ukrainian drone attack injured several people after hitting civilian infrastructure in Saratov, nearly 1000km from Moscow. The number of casualties from both incidents remains unconfirmed (621 miles).

Russia and Ukraine pledged to halt strikes on each other’s capitals for three days as Washington dispatched envoys to Moscow and Kyiv. However, fighting continued elsewhere.

Attacks paused after leaders Vladimir Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine announced the ceasefire during the visits by US President Donald Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to Moscow and Kyiv over the weekend.

Russia’s state news agency TASS confirmed that the three-day suspension Putin had ordered for his forces expired on Monday evening local time.

Witkoff and Kushner held talks with officials in Moscow and Kyiv regarding ending the conflict. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov called the more than three-hour meeting in Moscow on Saturday “highly useful”.

After talks with Ukraine’s Zelenskyy, Witkoff said: “We’ve had a very meaningful discussion, substantive, important, and we are very encouraged, and we look forward to continuing this as long as it takes.”

Witkoff also raised the prospects of reviving three-way negotiations to end the war.

A White House official told the Reuters news agency that the next steps regarding the war, which Russia began with a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022, would be announced in the coming weeks.

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Japan’s Ministry of Defense has included an intriguing description of the ASM-3 Kai missile in its record fiscal year 2027 defense budget request, referring to the weapon as an “air-to-surface/anti-air missile.” Until now, the ASM-3 family has been publicly associated with the air-launched anti-ship (anti-surface) mission, and the wording potentially hints at an additional capability or intended role for the upgraded weapon.

The reference appears in Japan’s FY2027 defense budget request, submitted today, which seeks a record ¥8.89 trillion (approximately $56 billion) for the fiscal year beginning in April 2027. The request is part of a broader push by Tokyo to expand standoff strike, air defense, uncrewed systems, and other advanced capabilities.

The reference appears under a sub-section entitled Durability and Resilience, which calls for funds to “secure ammunition and fuel, increase the number of operational units (by addressing parts shortages, etc.), enhance the resilience of facilities (through facility upgrades associated with the formation of new units and the introduction of new equipment, etc.), and strengthen the operational infrastructure (by enhancing manufacturing capabilities, etc.).”

https://t.co/ntiASteLJx
というわけで概算要求ですが、個人的にはずっと導入を訴えてきたAARGM-ERの導入決定が嬉しい。あとは、ASM-3（改）がまさかの「空対艦/対空ミサイル」とは。 pic.twitter.com/XX09mrx2cE

— 因幡のよっちゃん（稲葉義泰 Yoshihiro Inaba） (@japanesepatrio6) August 31, 2026

In terms of securing ammunition, the document highlights the breadth of weapons systems involved, ranging from 5.56mm small arms ammunition and 30mm cannon rounds, via 155mm precision artillery rounds, up to advanced missiles including the Type 23 ship-launched air defense missile and the ASM-3 Kai.

The Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) ASM-3 is Japan’s domestically developed supersonic air-launched anti-ship missile, originally intended to arm the Mitsubishi F-2 fighter. The improved ASM-3 Kai (“Kai” meaning modified or revised) represents a significant evolution of the weapon, although the full nature of its capabilities and performance have not been officially revealed. The missile has already been observed undergoing testing on F-2s.

2年半振り以上？に飛んでいる102号機を撮影しました👍
ASM-3改にカメラポット吊してありがたや🙏

2026.06.01
岐阜基地 RJNG
F-2B 102 pic.twitter.com/oUJImUagsI

— ボボ・AKEBOVO (@AKEBOVO) June 1, 2026

The ASM-3 program has also gone through a number of different configurations over its development history, with at least five distinct external configurations identified in previous reporting. The existence of multiple iterations leaves open the possibility that the newly identified “anti-air” designation could ultimately correspond to a dedicated air-to-air variant or derivative of the ASM-3 family, rather than simply a secondary capability of the baseline ASM-3 Kai.

Reportedly, the ASM-3 Kai is capable of flying more than 400 kilometers (about 250 miles), although the exact range of the operational weapon remains classified. It is powered by a ramjet engine, giving it sustained high-speed performance — reportedly around Mach 3. If it indeed has an air-to-air capability, this would be an advantage in some scenarios, compared to relying solely on a brief but very powerful rocket boost as many air-to-air missiles do.

The weapon is also understood to employ an active/passive radar seeker, providing it with both an active radar mode for detecting and engaging targets and a passive mode that can home in on their electromagnetic emissions. While an active radar seeker is common on long-range air-to-air missiles, the latter passive capability could also be of extreme value in an air-to-air application.

The ASM-3 is also a substantially larger missile than typical fighter-launched air-to-air weapons. While that imposes obvious carriage and aerodynamic penalties, it also allows for a larger propulsion system, seeker, and warhead than would be practical in a smaller missile.

A weapon capable of traveling hundreds of miles at high speed, while carrying an active/passive radar seeker, could potentially be especially useful against high-value airborne assets such as airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. These platforms provide vital wide-area surveillance, battle management, and targeting capabilities. At the same time, their powerful radars are necessarily emitting, potentially making them detectable and trackable by a missile employing a passive seeker.

China’s rapidly expanding AEW&C fleet is an increasingly important part of its ability to generate situational awareness, coordinate fighters, and extend its sensor coverage well beyond its immediate borders. The force, which already numbers dozens of increasingly capable fixed-wing aircraft, is a growing operational challenge for Japan and other regional air forces.

The ability to threaten such aircraft from well beyond the range of conventional air-to-air engagements could force an opponent to operate its AEW&C fleet even further from contested airspace, reducing the effectiveness of its sensors and command-and-control architecture. Although a passive seeker could also offer an avenue for homing in on relevant radar emissions, exactly how the ASM-3 Kai’s seeker would operate against airborne targets is not publicly known. Equally, a different variant of the missile, optimized for anti-air missions, could incorporate both passive and active seekers specially adapted for that mission set, although it is very possible a single configuration can accomplish both missions. As well as AEW&C aircraft, such a missile would be just as relevant for other high-value, non-maneuvering targets at long ranges, including intelligence-gathering platforms, tankers, and other support aircraft.

The budget language by itself falls short of establishing whether the ASM-3 Kai has been tested or validated against aircraft. The designation could reflect a broader classification within the budget documents, or it could point toward a genuine expansion of the weapon’s intended target set.

XASM-3 Supersonic anti-ship missile test launch

Such a weapon would not necessarily be a replacement for Japan’s existing air-to-air missile arsenal. Instead, an “anti-air” ASM-3 Kai could occupy a specialized niche focused on high-value or otherwise particularly important airborne targets at extended ranges.

The possibility is consistent with Japan’s broader effort to expand the flexibility and reach of its air-launched weapons. Tokyo is pursuing a growing family of standoff weapons as part of a major expansion of its counterstrike and deterrence capabilities, including longer-range missiles capable of striking targets well beyond the immediate vicinity of Japan.

Other air-to-air missiles mentioned in the same section of the document comprise the U.S.-made AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) and the domestically developed AAM-4B, another medium-range weapon, thought to be the first of its kind to be fitted with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) antenna.

Between the exclusive AESA radar and Japan’s labour cost, Mitsubishi’s AAM-4B might be the most expensive air-to-air missile on the planet pic.twitter.com/rfBnXB8RzS

— Lia Wong (@LiaWong__) May 3, 2022

The FY2027 defense budget request also mentions another apparently new air-launched weapon for Japan, the AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile-Extended Range (AARGM-ER). Japan has not previously been publicly documented as an international AARGM-ER customer, but the weapon would be an obvious candidate for integration with its F-35 fighters if it wishes to bolster their suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) capabilities.

In terms of F-2-related developments, the document calls for the upgrade of an initial 10 of these aircraft to make them compatible with the air-launched version of the Upgraded Type 12 anti-ship guided missile, a significant new weapon that you can read more about here.

TWZ has contacted Japan’s Ministry of Defense seeking clarification on the “air-to-surface/anti-air” designation and what it means for the ASM-3 Kai’s intended capabilities and target set. It could also be the case that the description is an error in the budget document.

However, the emergence of such a capability would also come at a time when very-long-range air-to-air weapons are becoming increasingly important as anti-access/area-denial challenges make it harder for fighters to get close to enemy aircraft and the high-value assets supporting them. China has fielded weapons such as the PL-15 and the much larger PL-17, while the United States is developing the AIM-260 and has just revealed the AIM-424 Malice, a U.S. Navy missile reportedly capable of reaching more than 250 nautical miles. The U.S. Navy is also fielding the AIM-174B, a very-long-range weapon developed very much with the Chinese threat in mind, and which we discuss in the video below.

How The Navy’s New Very Long-Range AIM-174 Will Pierce China’s Anti-Access Bubble

For now, exactly what prompted the “air-to-surface/anti-air” designation for the missile is unclear, but if it reflects a genuine expansion of the ASM-3 Kai’s mission set, it would represent a particularly interesting development in Japan’s rapidly evolving air-launched weapons portfolio.

Hat-tip to Yoshihiro Inaba for bringing this development to our attention.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

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The first of Japan’s two new cruiser-sized Aegis System Equipped Vessels (ASEV) is continuing to take shape, recently receiving its huge main integrated mast, giving the vessel a new and remarkably imposing silhouette. The four very large fixed arrays for the ship’s powerful AN/SPY-7(V)1 radar will eventually be integrated onto this structure. The ASEV’s stated primary mission is missile defense, but Japanese authorities plan to give the vessels additional counter-drone, anti-ship, and land attack capabilities in the future. Tomahawk cruise missiles are notably set to be added to the ship’s arsenal down the line.

The ASEVs are large surface combatants, set to be some 620 feet long, have a beam (the widest point of the hull) of some 82 feet, and a standard displacement of 12,000 tons. For comparison, Japan’s largest surface combatants today, its Maya class destroyers, are just over 557 feet long, have a beam of some 73 feet, and a standard displacement of around 8,200 tons. It is worth noting here that the size of new and advanced destroyers, often optimized for anti-air warfare missions, has been trending upward globally in recent years. This, in turn, has caused the line between destroyers and what have more historically been categorized as cruisers in certain cases.

The first ASEV was laid down at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ (MHI) shipyard in Nagasaki in July 2025. The second was laid down in February of this year at Japan Marine United Isogo shipyard, which is situated in Yokohama City near Tokyo, according to a past report from Naval News. The Japanese Ministry of Defense is currently aiming to have the first of these vessels in service before the end of the country’s 2027 Fiscal Year, which runs from April 2027 to March 2028. The second is expected to follow in the 2028 fiscal cycle, which extends into 2029.

Significant progress in the overall construction of the first ship has been made just this year. The addition of the main mast structure, installed on top of the main superstructure, as seen in pictures at the top of this story and below, has drawn particular attention in recent weeks.

Japanese are very fast with ship building.

March 26 and today. ASEV-class destroyer.

190 m hull, SPY-7 Aegis, 128cell Mk 41 VLS. SM-3 for ballistic missiles, SM-6, plus Japan’s long range Type 12 SSM. pic.twitter.com/RQZixtqWwe

— 信濃 Æýà (@Shinano_AEya) August 30, 2026

The especially large size of the ASEV’s integrated mast is driven by that of the AN/SPY-7(V)1 active electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar from Lockheed Martin. Each one of the radar’s four rectangular arrays is reportedly around 14 feet (nearly 4.3 meters) tall. This would put them in the same general size category as the arrays for Raytheon’s AN/SPY-6(V)1 Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) found on U.S. Navy Flight III Arleigh Burke class destroyers. That being said, the pictures we have now raise the question of whether the AN/SPY-7(V)1 arrays are bigger than previously assessed. The AMDR is another notably large design heavily optimized for missile defense.

The size and location of the mast provide a centralized, elevated position for the AN/SPY-7(V)1’s large arrays, which will also require significant power generation capacity and thermal management to keep everything cool. This is a notable departure from the placement of the arrays on the main superstructure on existing Japanese destroyers, as well as the U.S. Arleigh Burke class, and offers an unobstructed, elevated line-of-sight to the horizon. Beyond the ballistic missile defense mission, this view farther out over the horizon would be important for tracking and engaging low-flying drones and cruise missiles, which might be targeting the ship itself. This is something we will come back to later on.

“With five times the tracking capability of the SPY-1, it [the AN/SPY-7(V)1] counters lofted trajectories and simultaneous multiple ballistic missile threats,” according to a machine translation of a section of the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s 2026 defense policy white paper, which was released earlier this month.

The passive electronically-scanned array (PESA) AN/SPY-1 was the first radar to be paired with the Aegis Combat System, and both were first introduced in the 1970s. Variants of the SPY-1 are still found on a variety of U.S. and foreign Aegis-equipped warships, including Japan’s Kongo, Atago, and Maya class destroyers.

The AN/SPY-7(V)1 is also a derivative of the U.S. military’s static, land-based Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) in Alaska. Japan also originally planned to employ the AN/SPY-7(V)1 on land at a pair of Aegis Ashore missile defense sites. However, that effort was subsequently cancelled, with the ASEV emerging to fill the resulting gap.

Additional versions of the AN/SPY-7 with much smaller arrays are also being integrated onto new F110 Bonifaz class frigates for the Spanish Navy and the Royal Canadian Navy’s forthcoming River class destroyers (also known as the Canadian Surface Combatant). The use of the AN/SPY-7(V)1 on the ASEV could impact decisions regarding new radars for other future and existing Japanese warships. Raytheon is also pitching versions of its increasingly popular AN/SPY-6 family for use on a successor to the Kongo class and for refit on the Maya class, according to a recent report from Naval News.

When it comes to the ASEV, as already noted, the AN/SPY-7(V)1 is central to the ship’s main stated missile defense mission. As the name makes clear, the ship will also feature the Aegis Combat System. The vessel will be capable of “remote engagement and guidance against anti-air targets tracked by other vessels” via a “Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC),” per the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s most recent annual defense white paper.

The video below provides details about the U.S. Navy’s Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) developments, which are likely very similar to what Japan has planned for the ASEV.

Cooperative Engagement Capability

In terms of armament, when the ASEVs first enter service, their main weaponry is expected to be a mix of variants of the Standard Missile-3 and -6 (SM-3 and SM-6). The SM-3 family is designed to engage ballistic missile threats during the mid-course portion of their flights while they are traveling outside of the Earth’s atmosphere. The SM-3 also has a demonstrated anti-satellite capability. The SM-6 is a multi-purpose missile that was originally designed with an anti-air focus. It can be used to target incoming ballistic missiles in the terminal phase of flight and also has at least a degree of capability for engaging hypersonic weapons. SM-6 can be used in a surface-to-surface mode, including against ships, as well. Japan is also a partner in the U.S.-led development of a new Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), which is being designed specifically to intercept unpowered, but highly maneuverable hypersonic boost-glide vehicles.

SM-3, SM-6, and future GPIs will be loaded into either of the ASEV’s two Vertical Launch System (VLS) arrays, one at the bow end and another toward the stern. Each one of the ships will have a total of 128 VLS cells. For comparison, Japan’s Maya class destroyers, as well as the U.S. Navy’s Flight IIA and III Arleigh Burke class destroyers, have 96 VLS cells apiece. The U.S. Navy’s Ticonderoga class cruisers each have 122 VLS cells, and 128 is also the number of VLSs currently expected to be found on the future Trump class battleships.

At the time of writing, Japanese authorities do not appear to have explicitly mentioned plans to arm the ASEVs with other missiles when they first enter service. That being said, any VLS array capable of accommodating SM-3s and SM-6s should be able to fire a variety of other weapons, including shorter-ranged SM-2s and Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM), which the ship could use for more localized air and missile defense, as well as protecting the ship itself.

Renderings and models of the ASEV do show the design also armed with a five-inch naval gun in a turret on the bow, along with two Phalanx Close-in Weapon Systems (CIWS) and other automatic cannons for point defense.

As mentioned, while missile defense is the immediate focus for the ASEVs, there are already plans to significantly expand their capability to engage other ships and targets on land. Tomahawk cruise missiles and a new, extended-range version of the Type 12 anti-ship cruise missile are set to be added to the arsenal of these vessels in the 2032 timeframe, according to the latest official Japanese defense white paper.

Japanese authorities want the ASEVs to eventually be able to help fend off waves of enemy drones, too. High-energy laser-directed energy weapons are set to be integrated onto the ships down the line to help address those threats. The overall size and other general characteristics of the ships would leave the door open to the possible addition of high-power microwaves and other capabilities in the future.

TWZ has long noted that the ASEVs will bring huge new boosts in naval air and missile defense and long-strike capability to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces. The vessels also reflect a significant evolution in post-World War II Japanese doctrine, toward what officials currently frame as a “stand-off defense” construct that remains within the bounds of the country’s current pacifist constitution.

Just with SM-3, SM-6, and GPI, the ASEVs will offer an important addition to the air and missile defense bubbles around Japan’s home islands and outlying territories in the face of growing geopolitical friction with China and Russia, two countries that are increasingly cooperating militarily. The vessels will also add to Japan’s deterrent against long-standing and still evolving threats posed by the regime in North Korea, which has its own close ties to the Chinese and Russian governments. All three of these nations continue to expand their arsenals of ever-more capable ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles. Long-range one-way-attack drones are another growing part of the equation, with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and fighting in the Middle East in recent years underscoring just how real a threat they pose.

With the addition of Tomahawks, the ASEVs, along with other Japanese warships, will gain the additional ability to threaten counterstrikes against targets on land (and potentially at sea) at least around 1,000 miles in any direction. As part of the broader stand-off defense strategy, the Japan Self Defense Forces is developing new land-based long-range strike capabilities, including hypersonic missiles, as well.

It is worth noting that with current plans to acquire only two ASEVs, these will be high-value but also low-density assets, which will have to be very deliberately deployed for maximum effect. They will also stand out as top-priority targets in any future conflict, and will need to be protected as such.

It is possible that the roles and missions of the ASEVs, just like their designs, could evolve further as time goes on. The threat ecosystem facing Japan will continue to evolve, likely more rapidly, in the coming years. The country is also expanding its naval capabilities in other ways, and with an eye toward more blue water operations. This includes expanded light carrier capabilities through refits of existing Izumo class ships. Anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic cruise missiles, among large volumes of more traditional threats, could see the ASEVs used as escorts, even if experimentally. While just two hulls are barely enough to keep one on patrol to protect Japan, more could be built for expeditionary applications.

Regardless, the ASEVs are set to be a major addition to the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force’s fleets that will have big ramifications. From the progress that is visible at the shipyard in Nagasaki, MHI looks to be well on track to deliver the first of these ships next year or two.

Special thanks to @kensakai9310 on X, who also goes by “Sakai,” for sharing recently taken pictures of the first ASEV under construction at MHI’s yard in Nagasaki with us.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

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A new Ukrainian intelligence report details the complex production chain behind Russia’s shadowy 3M22 Zircon missile and identifies U.S.-origin electronics inside one of Russia’s most advanced weapons. New details also add weight to the theory that the weapon is a maneuverable quasi-ballistic missile rather than a true hypersonic cruise missile.

The unusually detailed new breakdown of the Zircon missile identifies 70 enterprises and 84 individuals involved in its development and production while providing a component-by-component look at one of Moscow’s most closely watched — and least-understood — weapons.

‼️DIU exposes details of russia’s 3M22 Zircon ballistic missile — including its components, production chain, 70 companies involved, key personnel, and foreign equipment used to manufacture the weapon: https://t.co/oOBqjUb8dS pic.twitter.com/VqRSSA41iV

— Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (@DI_Ukraine) August 31, 2026

The first evidence of Zircon’s combat use emerged in February 2024, when Ukrainian officials displayed recovered debris after a Russian strike. The wreckage included distinctive engine and steering-system components that Ukrainian specialists used to identify the weapon.

Russia has since employed the missile on other occasions. Ukrainian authorities reported that a Zircon was launched from occupied Crimea during a major missile and drone strike in January 2026, as we reported at the time.

While initially developed for use from warships and submarines, Zircon is understood to have been employed from ground-based launchers against Ukraine, with modified launchers from the K-300P Bastion coastal defense system considered the most likely candidate.

The new entry on Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) War & Sanctions portal includes an interactive 3D model and identifies systems ranging from the missile’s radar seeker and onboard computer to its propulsion system and warhead. It also identifies foreign-origin electronics, including components associated with U.S. manufacturers.

Among them, according to the GUR report, is a TGA2704 amplifier associated with TriQuint Semiconductor, now part of U.S. company Qorvo. The GUR also identifies an Altera Cyclone II EP2C5T144I8N field-programmable gate array (FPGA) associated with Altera Corporation, now part of Intel, and lists it as originating in the United States.

The alleged findings do not establish that either company knowingly supplied Russia’s defense industry, nor do they explain precisely how the components reached Russian production lines. The GUR says it’s seeking additional information on their origins and supply chains. Bearing in mind previous precedents, China could potentially be one source, being a known vector globally for recycled chips.

Nevertheless, the disclosure highlights the continued presence of Western-origin electronics in Russia’s advanced weapons programs despite sanctions and export controls.

The GUR lists the Zircon as approximately 26 feet long, with a body diameter of 2.2 feet, and a warhead weighing about 265 pounds.

The agency gives a maximum speed of Mach 8-9, a flight altitude of approximately 19-25 miles, and a separate “maximum fixed speed” (presumably, sustained cruising speed) of Mach 6.8. These are Ukrainian intelligence assessments and cannot be independently verified.

The database identifies the 3B222 active radar-homing head, manufactured by NPP Radar MMS, and a Baget-83 onboard digital computer produced by KB Korund-M.

It also identifies the 3B915 guidance units, the 3G22 warhead, and the 3L2211 solid-fuel rocket motor manufactured by NPO Iskra. Other Russian companies provide altimeters, control systems, power supplies, and other components.

The reported propulsion information is particularly significant.

Russian and other sources have consistently described Zircon as a hypersonic cruise missile, implying an air-breathing propulsion system burning liquid propellant, capable of sustaining hypersonic flight.

However, the physical evidence for such a propulsion system has always been less clear.

Open-source analysis by Fabian Hinz has highlighted the apparent absence of a conventional air intake on Zircon. A scramjet- or ramjet-powered missile requires an intake to bring atmospheric oxygen into the engine, yet available imagery does not clearly show one. A Russian patent associated with the missile’s jettisonable launch cap likewise does not reveal an obvious intake arrangement.

Just published my new OSINT investigation into Russia’s secretive Zircon missile whose combat use has risen sharply in 2026.

Available evidence suggests that Zircon is not a hypersonic cruise missile but rather a quasi-ballistic system.

Link: https://t.co/8DoQePRpX3 pic.twitter.com/bIBS532FUB

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) June 17, 2026

More significant is evidence from recovered missile debris.

Material examined by Ukraine’s Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise included a circular metal structure interpreted as part of a solid-propellant rocket motor. The hardware appeared to be associated with Zircon’s second stage rather than simply its launch booster (which would be used on a true hypersonic cruise missile to bring it up to operating speed). This suggests a two-stage weapon, with a solid-propellant rocket in each. This would match with what we have seen during shipboard launches.

That finding is consistent with Russian patent activity involving NPO Mashinostroyeniya and NPO Iskra. Patents associated with the companies describe solid-propellant rocket motors incorporating arrangements for aerodynamic-control equipment around the motor’s exhaust system.

There is also evidence that Russian engineers developed advanced composite solid propellants specifically for Zircon.

None of this conclusively proves the missile lacks an air-breathing engine, but it certainly raises more questions about its classification. It should be noted that there are also some solid-fuel ramjet concepts, but these are much rarer applications.

If Zircon is primarily rocket-powered, it may be better understood as a maneuverable quasi-ballistic missile that nonetheless reaches hypersonic speeds.

Such a weapon would use rocket propulsion to accelerate rapidly and climb to high altitude before descending toward its target along a trajectory that is partly ballistic but incorporates aerodynamic maneuvering — a so-called ‘porpoising’ or ‘skip-glide’ trajectory. It could therefore reach hypersonic speeds without requiring sustained cruise under the power of an air-breathing system. The combination of high speed and unpredictable trajectory also makes it notably difficult for air defenses to deal with, characteristics shared with the air-launched Kinzhal, another Russian quasi-ballistic missile.

That interpretation could also help explain reports of a highly variable Zircon speed profile.

Russian officials have claimed that the missile can reach approximately Mach 9. During a 2020 test, Russian military leadership said Zircon reached more than Mach 8 while flying to an altitude of roughly 17 miles.

A Russian Ministry of Defense video that claims to show the Zircon test in the White Sea on Oct. 6, 2020:

Первый пуск гиперзвуковой ракеты «Циркон» с борта фрегата «Адмирал Горшков»

Ukrainian assessments have described a more complicated profile, with the missile reportedly flying at around Mach 5.5, accelerating to approximately Mach 7.5 near the target, and then slowing before impact. Those figures cannot be independently confirmed, but a boost-and-glide or quasi-ballistic trajectory could produce such a profile more naturally than sustained powered cruise.

At the same time, it should be recalled that ‘hypersonic’ does not necessarily imply a ‘hypersonic cruise missile.’ A ballistic or quasi-ballistic weapon can travel well above Mach 5, which appears to be the case here. The characteristics of the Zircon, as presented by the GUR, would also help explain official Ukrainian claims that the missiles have been intercepted successfully by Patriot PAC-3 air defense systems.

There is also a relevant technological precedent. NPO Mashinostroyeniya has previously patented solid-propellant missiles using quasi-ballistic trajectories, including designs intended to maneuver at high-supersonic and hypersonic speeds. That does not establish a direct lineage to Zircon, but it does show that the concept is consistent with the company’s history.

The other major takeaway from the release is the scale of Zircon’s production network.

One of Russia’s leading missile houses, NPO Mashinostroyeniya is identified as the missile’s main designer and manufacturer and prime contractor for Russian Ministry of Defense contracts covering its development and production.

But the weapon depends on dozens of other organizations. NPO Iskra supplies the solid-fuel motor; NPP Radar MMS provides the radar seeker; KB Korund-M produces the onboard computer; and other enterprises supply guidance systems, altimeters, control electronics, warheads, power systems, and other specialized equipment.

Another video, released by the Russian Ministry of Defense in May 2022, is said to show the Gorshkov launching a Zircon, although the missile is seen only at a distance with no details visible:

Russia shows off Zircon hypersonic cruise missile

The U.S.-origin electronics claimed to have been identified by GUR are particularly notable because they demonstrate how Russia’s sophisticated weapons production remains connected to international semiconductor supply chains.

By linking specific enterprises and individuals to individual missile components, Ukraine has provided governments and investigators with new information that could be used to pursue sanctions, export-control enforcement, and efforts to disrupt Russia’s supply chain.

The report also adds weight to continued open-source assessments of what kind of missile Zircon actually is.

Regardless of its classification, Zircon remains a formidable weapon. A rocket-powered missile capable of reaching hypersonic speeds, flying at high altitude, maneuvering, and potentially accelerating during its terminal approach presents a serious challenge to missile defenses. With Ukraine’s ability to intercept even more conventional ballistic missiles already severely eroded, the weapon further complicates the country’s troubling air defense picture.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

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“Pravac Potocari” or “Direction Potocari” were the words used by former Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic as he entered Srebrenica on July 11, 1995.

Mladic was referring to the nearby village of Potocari, which hosted a United Nations peacekeeping base and was the initial gathering point for Bosniak refugees during the war in Bosnia. Under Mladic’s command, Bosnian Serb forces committed a genocide against thousands of Bosniak men and boys in the days that followed.

“Pravac Potocari” was also the slogan the fans of the Serbian football team Red Star chose on Sunday to honour the so-called “butcher of Bosnia”, who died in The Hague, the Netherlands, on August 27, while ⁠serving a life sentence for ‌genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. During a match against city rivals Partizan in the Serbian capital, the supporters also unveiled a giant image of Mladic and observed a minute of silence in his memory.

The tribute came days after European football governing body UEFA fined Red Star a total of 98,250 euros, or $114,100, over a banner -“General, eternal glory and thanks” – dedicated to Mladic that was unveiled by the club’s ultras during a Europa League playoff away leg in Plzen, in the Czech Republic.

The penalty included a ban on Red Star supporters travelling to the club’s next two European away fixtures, in Lugano, Switzerland on October 15 and Ghent, Belgium on November 26.

It was not the first time Red Star supporters had expressed support for Mladic during a European match. Nine years earlier, fans displayed similar messages during a Europa League tie against Belarusian club BATE Borisov.

‘Most shameful event this stadium has seen’

For Slobodan Georgiev, a news director at TV Nova S in Serbia, the minute of silence at Belgrade’s Marakana stadium marked a qualitative shift rather than a repeat performance.

“Glorifying a convicted war criminal is nothing new, but officially paying tribute to him with a minute of silence is new – and it’s the most shameful event this stadium has witnessed,” Georgiev said. “Displaying the shameful slogan ‘Pravac Potocari’ cannot be justified, though in the coming days we’ll surely see attempts to do so.”

He placed the display in a much longer lineage. “Since the breakup of Yugoslavia, the terraces have served as a recruitment centre for paramilitary formations, and in various forms that haven’t changed to this day,” he said. “The worst messages have always travelled through the terraces – everything the authorities didn’t dare say themselves, they most often said through the stands, as they did … at the Red Star–Partizan match.”

But what made Sunday’s so-called “eternal derby” notable was not only the Red Star display.

Partizan’s own hardcore supporters, the Grobari, had raised their own banner in tribute to Mladic – reading “General, thank you” – just a week earlier, on August 31, during a Serbian Super Liga match against OFK Beograd, with Mladic’s flag flying over the north stand for the full 90 minutes.

For Georgiev, the fan groups are not an autonomous phenomenon, but an instrument. “The state, through its secret services and through criminal groups, has always managed these groups and used them for the worst tasks: Mobilisation in war, crime in peacetime, and delivering the ugliest political messages,” he said. “A stand that boasts it was founded by Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan, and that sings in praise of Ratko Mladic without facing any legal consequence for it, speaks for itself.”

Georgiev was referring to Arkan, the Serbian paramilitary leader whose unit committed atrocities during the Yugoslav wars and who, before his assassination in Belgrade in 2000, was closely associated with Red Star’s hardcore fan base, the Delije – a group he is widely reported to have helped organise.

‘Clearest indication issue deeply ingrained’

Sasa Djordevic, a senior analyst at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), sees the same continuity Georgiev described, tracing it back further still. “The connection between football hooliganism, nationalism and politics in Serbia dates to the late 1980s and became particularly evident during and after the breakup of former Yugoslavia,” he said. “Certain elements of the hooligan scene have since been exploited as a political ‘rent-a-mob,’ and some group leaders have reaped benefits from political protection or business opportunities.”

What worries him most now is not the display itself, but how unremarkable it risks becoming. “Incidents like those that occurred at Marakana last night risk being perceived as routine rather than serious manifestations of hate speech,” he said. “Public debate has nearly vanished, and society seems increasingly desensitised to violence and hate speech in stadiums. When such behaviour starts to feel normal, it may be the clearest indication that the issue has become deeply ingrained.”

Ivana Jeremic, an editor at the Balkan Insight publication, pointed to why sports venues serve that function so well. “Stadiums have long ceased to be merely sporting arenas – they are fertile ground for sending messages that can’t be spoken publicly, or that come wrapped in a softer form,” she said. “Matches involving Partizan, Red Star, and the national team stand out in particular for this.”

The political ties, she argued, are an open secret. “The political connections between the fans leading the stands and those in power are something of a public secret, with a number of documented examples of direct influence. What we hear or see on the terraces could hardly happen without some form of ‘permission’ from the authorities,” Jeremic said. “When it comes to Mladic, we’ve seen a rise in such messages in recent days. Red Star’s fans, as well as the club itself, are currently perceived as a mouthpiece of the government.”

On Thursday, a Serbian government plane carried Mladic’s body from The Hague to Belgrade for burial, where it was received with military honours.

From the terraces to paramilitary structures

Djordevic traced the mechanism behind this convergence to the same period cited by Georgiev. “During the breakup of Yugoslavia, football stadiums became spaces for nationalist mobilisation, and for some young men the step from organised football violence to paramilitary structures was short,” he said. “Hooligan groups since then cultivate loyalty, hierarchy, readiness to use violence and rapid mobilisation to achieve their extremist views that go beyond strictly football supporter beliefs.”

That structure is not unique to Serbia, but it is particularly acute there. GI-TOC’s regional research examined 122 fan groups, identifying 78 as ultras – and found 21 groups combining violent hooliganism with links to extreme politics. “The most problematic situation was in Serbia, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Djordevic said, while cautioning against overreach. “The term ‘terrorism’ should be used cautiously: The evidence points to particular groups or individuals linked to violent extremism and paramilitary structures, not supporter groups as a whole.”

UEFA’s disciplinary decision detailed the layers of the punishment: A  50,000-euro ($58,000) fine for transmitting a message unfit for a sporting event, an 8,250-euro ($9,580) fine for team misconduct, and the activation of a suspended sanction originally imposed in April 2025 over racist conduct by Red Star fans – a suspended stadium ban now converted into a one-match travelling ban, conditionally extended for a further two years.

But fines on paper, Djordevic said, rarely reach the people who are actually liable. “The problem is that fines imposed on clubs do not necessarily affect those responsible for the incidents,” he said. “If hooligans remain untouched, financial penalties can become simply another cost of doing business rather than a tool for changing behaviour. That does not mean clubs do not care. They respond when sanctions are certain, substantial, and consistently enforced, as seen more clearly in basketball games than in football.”

The gap, he argued, is not a lack of rules. “Serbia already has a solid legal framework,” he said. “The real issue is enforcement. Sanctions need to be applied quickly, consistently and without exceptions, both to clubs and to individuals responsible for violence and hate speech.”

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Published On 7 Sep 20267 Sep 2026

A multistorey building in the Indian capital, New Delhi, has collapsed, killing at least six people and trapping dozens of others.

Rescue teams are searching the rubble of the collapsed building, which housed mostly students, near a Delhi University campus in Satya Niketan on Sunday.

The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) said it treated several victims after the incident.

“Out of the 10 patients, five were brought dead, while one patient who was in critical condition later succumbed to his injuries,” AIIMS said in a statement.

Crews from India’s disaster response agency, police and firefighters cleared debris with earthmovers and used detection dogs to search for those trapped inside. A nearby building was evacuated over concerns that it could also collapse.

Up to 40 people remain trapped under the rubble, according to fire officer Abhilash Malik. The number of survivors and the cause of the accident were not immediately clear.

A video filmed by a man trapped under the rubble as onlookers called for rescuers to help him has circulated online. Additional footage showed residents attempting to rescue survivors before disaster response teams arrived.

“The most important thing for us is to save the lives of these students. Rescue operations will carry on,” Delhi Chief Minister Rekha Gupta told local news outlets.

“I assure you we won’t spare the guilty,” she said.

“Condolences to those who lost their loved ones. Praying for the speedy recovery of the injured. Authorities are working at the site and assisting those affected in the mishap,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s office said on X.

Building collapses are frequent in parts of India during the rainy season from June to September. A similar incident occurred on Saturday after a three-storey building collapsed in northern India following heavy rain. No casualties were reported.

In 2025, at least 11 people were killed after a residential building collapsed in the northeastern district of New Delhi.

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Published On 7 Sep 20267 Sep 2026

Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has warned that Beijing could view recent cuts to the joint US-South Korea military drills as an opportunity to reassert itself in the Asia Pacific.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Seoul Defense Dialogue, an annual multilateral security forum, Teodoro said that “China is very quick to exploit gaps”, when asked on Monday whether Beijing could seize on the move.

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He added that Washington had given Manila “definite assurances” that the US commitments to the Philippines remained unchanged.

He also accused China of exploiting democratic systems to spread “distortive narratives”.

South Korea and the US shortened the duration of their annual joint military drills and scaled back field training exercises last month after US President Donald Trump ordered a “substantial reduction” in the annual war games.

The US-led Ulchi Freedom Shield war games ended six days earlier than originally planned.

Trump cited his “very good relationship” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and linked the decision to Seoul’s refusal to join the US and Israel’s war on Iran at the time.

Last week, South Korea’s presidential office said it was mulling “contributions” to the US’s freedom of navigation ⁠in the Strait of Hormuz. The presidential office later clarified that nothing has been decided, as any military deployment by South Korea requires a decision by the country’s National Security Council, a resolution at a cabinet meeting, and consent from the National Assembly.

Trump said he planned to meet with Kim later this year. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, later released a statement denying any ongoing communication between the US president and her brother and maintained that Washington continues to engage in a “hostile” policy towards her country, despite the warm relationship between the two leaders.

US, South Korea and Japan hold trilateral military drills

The US, South Korea and Japan are due to hold five days of military drills in waters east and south of South Korea’s Jeju Island starting on Monday.

South Korea’s military said in a statement that the Freedom Edge exercise is defensive in nature and meant to respond to North Korean nuclear and missile threats as well as promote regional peace and stability.

North Korea has previously slammed the trilateral drill as a “reckless show of strength” that proved its adversaries’ confrontational stance. Pyongyang has also said the drill contained a US intention to lay siege to China and exert pressure on Russia.

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Published On 7 Sep 20267 Sep 2026

A Jamaican delegation to the United Kingdom has said it will file a petition addressed to King Charles III to seek legal guidance on the question of slavery reparations.

This is the first time a British Commonwealth state will use this legal route “for the cause of reparatory justice”, the Jamaican delegation said, as the visit to London kicks off Monday.

Jamaica’s Ministry of Culture, Gender, Entertainment and Sport said its minister, Olivia Grange, will lead the delegation “to advance Jamaica’s push for reparations for the African ancestors who suffered under hundreds of years of enslavement”.

The ministry added that it will meet with the British Museum to discuss “the repatriation of cultural artefacts taken from Jamaica”.

The petition will ask the king, Jamaica’s head of state, to answer three questions on the transatlantic slave trade to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council, the Caribbean island’s highest court of appeal based in London.

Under the Judicial Committee Act of 1833, the UK monarch has the authority to refer legal matters to the court for an advisory opinion.

The questions include: whether the enslavement of Africans in Jamaica was legal under English common law, whether it violated international law, and whether the UK has a legal obligation to provide a remedy for the harm caused by slavery.

Grange said she would not speculate on whether Jamaica was asking the UK to pay reparations for the slave trade.

“We want the answers. Once we get the answers, or once we get a response to those questions, then the next steps will be determined,” she said.

“We understand the Jamaican government is seeking a petition to be heard before the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council,” a Buckingham Palace spokesperson said in response to Jamaica’s inquiry.

The palace acknowledged the king’s constitutional role in the petition as Jamaica’s head of state but said he had no role in deciding the substance of the claim.

British merchants enslaved and forcibly transported 600,000 to 1 million Africans to Jamaica between the 17th century and the early 19th century.

Shortly after abolishing slavery in 1833, the UK paid slave owners $27m in compensation, amounting to 40 percent of the Treasury’s annual income. To raise the cash, the government took out considerable loans, finally paying off its debts in 2015.

The Jamaican government estimates that the country is owed about $10bn, but the UK has repeatedly refused to pay for historical slavery.

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American Rheinmetall and General Dynamics Land Systems have now delivered the first prototypes of their proposed XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle (MICV) designs to the U.S. Army. The XM30 program is the Army’s latest attempt to replace its fleet of Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The competing MICV designs are set to be put to the test alongside early prototypes of the next-generation M1E3 Abrams tank in the spring.

The U.S. subsidiary of Germany’s Rheinmetall has been developing a version of its Lynx family to meet the Army’s MICV requirements, and announced the delivery of the first example today. General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), which is offering the Wolf, a further evolution of the company’s Griffin III, itself derived from the ASCOD 2 infantry fighting vehicle, said last week that its first prototype had arrived at the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. Variants and derivatives of the Lynx and ASCOD 2 are already in service with several countries, which we will come back to later on.

The press release today from American Rheinmetall says the company will eventually deliver eight prototypes to the Army for further testing. It is very likely General Dynamics Land Systems will be supplying an equivalent number of vehicles, but the company does not appear to have confirmed that explicitly at the time of writing. Army budget documents released earlier this year show the service is planning to acquire at least 108 XM30s through Fiscal Year 2031. The Army has some 2,500 Bradleys in service today, a figure that includes multiple variants and subvariants.

“Delivering our first prototype to the Army is an important step as the XM30 Combat Vehicle program enters a more visible phase,” Matt Warnick, CEO of American Rheinmetall, said in a statement accompanying the release. “Team Lynx now has the opportunity to show the Army that we can deliver on the promise of a modern replacement for the Bradley.”

“I could not be happier to be part of the GDLS team that is delivering this incredible new capability on schedule to the Army – they need it now,” Geoffrey Norman, Director for U.S. Strategy & Growth at General Dynamics Land Systems, had written last week in a post on LinkedIn. “The work continues as this first vehicle gets into the Army’s hands.”

The Lynx and Griffin III-based XM30 designs both feature hybrid-electric propulsion. This will offer improved fuel economy, added electrical power generation, and other benefits compared to the Bradley with its traditional diesel engine. The vehicles both have remotely operated turrets, with their two-person crews, as well as up to six passengers, all riding in the hull.

The Army expects the winning XM30 to provide significant boosts in lethality and other capabilities compared to any existing version of the Bradley. The main weapon on both competing designs is an XM913 50mm automatic cannon, offering a significant increase in firepower compared to the 25mm M242 on the Bradley.

The XM30 will also be able to launch loitering munitions. AeroVironment’s Switchblade 300 has been integrated onto General Dynamics Land Systems’ design. American Rheinmetall’s entry is designed to be able to fire versions of Raytheon’s Coyote Block 3, but whether it can launch other munitions is unclear. The launchers on the Lynx-based XM30 are known to also be capable of firing anti-tank guided missiles, such as the TOW and Javelin. The Army has demonstrated the ability to fire a version of the Coyote from the TOW missile launcher on the Bradley, as well.

Next-generation fire control, sensor, and networking/communications capabilities are also key to the Army’s current Bradley replacement plans. With its improved network connectivity, the service envisions XM30s acting as controllers for uncrewed ground vehicles, as well. The Army has already been working to prove out future crewed-uncrewed teaming concepts using the Bradley.

Overall, the Army sees the XM30 as a future “cornerstone of the Armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT), designed to enhance lethality, survivability, and maneuverability in high-intensity combat against near-peer adversaries,” according to the Army’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget documents. “The XM30 is versatile in its operational roles, capable of leading the charge, scouting ahead, or providing overwatch while Soldiers dismount and maneuver. Its ability to control robotic systems and semi-autonomous platforms adds another layer of capability, allowing the formation to extend its reach and maintain dominance across the battlefield.”

“The XM30 program is not just a replacement for the Bradley Fighting Vehicle – it represents a transformative leap in ground combat vehicle development. The XM30 is more than a vehicle; it is a software-defined platform designed for interoperability and adaptability, ensuring it evolves with changing technologies and operational demands,” the budget documents continue. “By leveraging digital engineering and modular open systems architecture (MOSA), the XM30 ensures infantry units always have the cutting-edge tools they need to outmaneuver and outgun the enemy. The XM30 also achieves a level of logistical efficiency that ensures sustained operational readiness while reducing costs and complexity.”

The Army now plans to put the XM30 prototypes to the test during a regular rotation at the sprawling National Training Center (NTC) at Fort Irwin in California next spring, according to a report last month from Breaking Defense. Soldiers assigned to the 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division out of Fort Hood in Texas, will operate the vehicles. 1/1st Cavalry is one of the Army’s so-called Transformation In Contact (TIC) units, which are supporting the service’s broader modernization objectives. The brigade is expected to bring prototypes of the next-generation M1E3 Abrams tank to the NTC, as well.

The Army has talked in the past about aiming to field a winning XM30 design by Fiscal Year 2029. However, it remains to be seen when it might make a final selection and when the first of those vehicles actually enter operational service.

“We have a plan to carry two vendors as long as we possibly can. It becomes a question about resourcing the money, because you’re not paying necessarily double, but you’re kind of paying double,” Army Brig. Gen. Troy Denomy, Program Acquisition Executive of Maneuver, told Breaking Defense for its story in August. “We’re absolutely trying to keep our options open as long as we can, but money matters.”

That being said, “if there’s not a clear winner at the end of the NTC rotation, ‘then it may be worth not selecting at that point,’ Denomy said,” per Breaking Defense.

This is hardly the first time the Army has attempted to replace the Bradley since it first entered service in the 1980s. Cost, weight, and other factors have derailed several previous attempts, including the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle (OMFV) effort that directly preceded the current MICV program. In February, another report from Breaking Defense had raised questions about the XM30’s future after at least a temporary program pause within the last year. That was followed by a new request for information for a different, but very similar-sounding vehicle.

As mentioned, the two competing XM30 designs are based on vehicles that are in operational service today. Hungary became the first operator of a Lynx variant last year, and Ukraine is also in the process of procuring versions of that design. Today, Spain is the primary operator of the ASCOD 2, with Latvia also working to field a fleet of those vehicles. The British Army’s much-troubled Ajax is also derived from the ASCOD 2. The U.S. Army’s now-cancelled M10 Booker ‘light tank’ is another member of this broader family.

It is worth noting here that there has been much debate in recent years about the utility of heavy armored vehicles like the Bradley, as well as the Abrams tank, in future conflicts. Armored and unarmored vehicles face a growing multitude of threats, including more and more capable anti-tank guided missiles and especially kamikaze drones. Reporting earlier on in the conflict in Ukraine had underscored the continued value of heavy armor, including of the Bradley, even if its place as a decisive factor on the battlefield was diminishing. However, a report just last week from The New York Times indicated that tanks, in particular, have become increasingly sidelined, largely due to the threat of drone attacks.

The Army is also now in the midst of a new leadership shakeup with the resignation of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. Reports say Driscoll’s departure follows growing friction with Secretary Pete Hegseth, including over modernization efforts.

In the meantime, examples of both of the designs competing to become the future XM30 are now in Army hands and are set to be tested alongside the M1E3 next year.

Update: 5:23 PM ET –

GDLS has now put out a brief press release regarding the delivery of the first Wolf prototype to Aberdeen Proving Ground, which it says occurred on August 21.

“This on-time delivery will allow Soldiers to start putting the Wolf through its paces, with the ultimate goal of getting it fielded into armored brigades as quickly as possible,” GDLS’ Norman said in a new statement accompanying the release. “I would like to congratulate our XM30 team on the successful design and production of this game-changing solution. The Wolf is the most technologically advanced combat vehicle ever assembled.”

The release also included the picture below, showing the Wolf prototype entirely under wraps on a trailer.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The post Competing Bradley Fighting Vehicle Replacement Prototypes Delivered To The U.S. Army (Updated) appeared first on TWZ.

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Please enter a full UK postcode\\\”,\\\”news_vj_search_lookup_one_result_available\\\”:\\\”1 result is available: {{suggestion}}.\\\”,\\\”news_vj_search_lookup_multiple_results_available\\\”:\\\”{{numberOfResults}} results are available.\\\”,\\\”news_vj_search_lookup_selected_result\\\”:\\\”{{suggestion}} is selected.\\\”,\\\”no-js-msg\\\”:\\\”A modern browser with JavaScript and a stable internet connection are required to view this interactive.\\\”,\\\”source\\\”:\\\”Source:\\\”,\\\”updated\\\”:\\\”Updated:\\\”,\\\”methodology-cta\\\”:\\\”Find out more about the data\\\”,\\\”up_from\\\”:\\\”up\\\”,\\\”down_from\\\”:\\\”down\\\”,\\\”mega_link_text\\\”:\\\”See more key stats on hotels, small boats and asylum\\\”,\\\”mega_link_url\\\”:\\\”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70989jrdweo\\\”,\\\”amp_click_to_expand_text\\\”:\\\”Click to expand\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__include-title\\\”:\\\”UK migration data at a glance\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__title\\\”:\\\”Net migration (change in population), {{netMigration.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__figure\\\”:\\\”{{netMigration.value}}*\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{netMigration.change}} over 12 months\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{netMigration.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-1__source\\\”:\\\”ONS\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__title\\\”:\\\”Immigration (people arriving), {{immigration.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__figure\\\”:\\\”{{immigration.value}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{immigration.change}} over 12 months\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{immigration.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-2__source\\\”:\\\”ONS\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__title\\\”:\\\”Emigration (people leaving), {{emigration.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__figure\\\”:\\\”{{emigration.value}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{emigration.change}} over 12 months\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{emigration.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-3__source\\\”:\\\”ONS\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__title\\\”:\\\”Asylum applications, {{asylumApplications.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__figure\\\”:\\\”{{asylumApplications.value}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{asylumApplications.change}} over 12 months\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{asylumApplications.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-4__source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__title\\\”:\\\”Returns and deportations from the UK, {{returns.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__figure\\\”:\\\”{{returns.value}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{returns.change}} over 12 months\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{returns.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-5__source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__title\\\”:\\\”Arrivals by small boat, 1 January 2026 to {{smallBoats.period}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__figure\\\”:\\\”{{smallBoats.value}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__percentage-tag\\\”:\\\”{{smallBoats.change}} same period {{smallBoats.period_previous}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__timestamp\\\”:\\\”{{smallBoats.updated_date}}\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__frequency-tag\\\”:\\\”\\\”,\\\”at-a-glance__summary-1__component__section-6__source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”small-boats__include-title\\\”:\\\”Small boat crossings and other illegal arrivals\\\”,\\\”small-boats__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people cross the English Channel in small boats?\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Between 1 January and {{smallBoats.period}}, a total of {{smallBoats.value}} people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. This {{smallBoats.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”These crossings have become the most common way for people to be detected entering the UK illegally since 2020.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Nearly all those who arrive by small boat claim asylum. Under international law, this means they are allowed to stay in the country while their asylum application is considered.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Small boat arrivals made up {{smallBoatsAsylum.percent}} of asylum applications between {{smallBoatsAsylum.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25572774?2496655\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25572774\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A step chart of small boat crossings over a calendar year for each year starting in 2021. The year-end totals were as follows 2021: 28,526, 2022: 45,755, 2023: 29,437, 2024: 36,816, 2025: 41,472. As of 28 August, there have been 16,513 small boat crossings to the UK in 2026. Out of the years plotted, this is the fifth highest number of small boat arrivals by this date.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”Boats that arrived in the UK from {{boatSize.period}} carried an average of {{boatSize.value}} people. This {{boatSize.change}} 2021.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-6\\\”:\\\”Experts say [overcrowding in boats makes crossings riskier](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9j8r8z90wo). At least 84 people died while attempting to cross the Channel in 2024, according to the United Nations (UN).\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-7\\\”:\\\”When looking at the scale of small boats crossings, the number of these arrivals is about {{smallBoatsImmigration.percent}} of the size of total immigration into the UK from {{smallBoatsImmigration.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-1__component__para-8\\\”:\\\”The government has pledged to [“smash the gangs”](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo) behind these crossings in order to reduce the numbers.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Who is arriving in the UK on small boats?\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”People from {{nationalities.top}} accounted for {{nationalities.percent}} of all arrivals from {{nationalities.period}}.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25573101?2496655\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25573101\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries from which the UK receives most arrivals by small boat. The countries and corresponding arrivals detected are as follows: Eritrea with 5,875 arrivals detected, Sudan with 4,191 arrivals detected, Afghanistan with 4,042 arrivals detected, Somalia with 3,901 arrivals detected, and Iran with 3,657 arrivals detected. The figures are for July 2025 to June 2026.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”FALSE\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”In the latest figures covering {{modernSlavery.period}}, at least {{modernSlavery.value}} people who arrived by small boat were found to be potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery, according to the Home Office.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How else do people stay in the UK without permission?\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Another {{otherMethods.value}} people were detected entering the UK without permission via other methods including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries or through airports from {{otherMethods.period}}. This {{otherMethods.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”There are also individuals who arrive legally, for example via a work or study visa, and then overstay their limit.\\\”,\\\”small-boats__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”The total number of people who live in the UK illegally after arriving legally is not known.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__include-title\\\”:\\\”Asylum applications and hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people are in asylum accommodation?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”An asylum seeker is someone who wants to be in the UK because they say they cannot live safely in their own country due to persecution or violence.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The government must house an asylum seeker if they cannot financially support themselves while their claim is being considered. There were {{accommodation.value}} people in asylum accommodation as of {{accommodation.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”About {{accommodationHotels.percent}} of those people, {{accommodationHotels.value}}, were in hotels. These are used when there is not enough shared housing available, such as houses of multiple occupation (HMOs) or [former military sites](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjr0lx7n0y3o).\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”The government [has pledged to stop the use of hotels](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo) by 2029.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”More people are in hotels across the south of England than elsewhere in the UK, while HMOs are more common in the north of England and Scotland.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Numbers of asylum seekers in hotels by council area\\\”,\\\”lookup-noscript-message\\\”:\\\”A modern browser with JavaScript and a stable internet connection is required to view this interactive\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__component__lookup-1__subtitle\\\”:\\\”Type in a postcode or the name of a local council below to see how many asylum seekers are housed in the area\\\”,\\\”news_vj_search_lookup_invalid_postcode\\\”:\\\”Please enter a full UK postcode\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_title\\\”:\\\”Asylum accommodation in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_as-of\\\”:\\\”as of {{date}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_per\\\”:\\\”per 100,000 residents\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_this-is\\\”:\\\”This is\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_much-lower\\\”:\\\”less than half\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_lower\\\”:\\\”lower than\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_average\\\”:\\\”about the same as\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_higher\\\”:\\\”higher than\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_much-higher\\\”:\\\”more than double\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-header\\\”:\\\”Asylum seekers in hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-zero-figure\\\”:\\\”There were no asylum seekers in hotels in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_hotels-comparand\\\”:\\\”the average for a UK council with asylum seekers in hotels, if you calculated it as a share of its population\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-uk-figures\\\”:\\\”{{number}} of {{total}} councils across the UK have asylum seekers in hotels\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25656794?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25656794\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map_alt\\\”:\\\”A map of which local authorities in the UK use hotels to house asylum seekers. 101 of 361 local authorities are using hotels as of June 2026.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map__mega_height\\\”:\\\”500\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-map__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_hotels-source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-header\\\”:\\\”Asylum seekers in other forms of accommodation\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-zero-figure\\\”:\\\”There were no asylum seekers in other forms of accommodation in {{council}}\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_comparison_other-comparand\\\”:\\\”the average for a UK council with asylum seekers in non-hotel accommodation, if you calculated it as a share of its population\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-uk-figures\\\”:\\\”{{number}} of {{total}} councils across the UK have asylum seekers in non-hotel accommodation\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25656669?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25656669\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-map-alt\\\”:\\\”A map of which local authorities in the UK use HMOs or other accommodation types to house asylum seekers. 321 of 361 local authorities are using hotels as of June 2026.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-2__search-results_other-source\\\”:\\\”Home Office\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How many people apply for asylum in the UK?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”A total of {{claims.value}} people applied for asylum in the UK from {{claims.period}}. This {{claims.change}} same period in the previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25573132?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25573132\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A bar chart of the total number of people applying for asylum in the UK, including main applicants and dependents, from July to June in the years 2002 to 2026. In the 12 months to June 2002, there were 75,668 claims. By 2005, this figure had more than halved. Applications hovered under or around 40,000 until 2022, when they reached 88,213. Levels swelled to around 100,000 in 2023, 2024 and 2025. From July 2025 to June 2026 there were 85,891 asylum applications.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”320\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”Most people who arrive in the UK by small boat claim asylum, but they were only {{smallBoats.percent}} of all asylum seekers from {{smallBoats.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”The rest include people who arrived by other illegal means or who came to the UK legally and applied for asylum while holding, or just after holding, a valid visa.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__header\\\”:\\\”How big is the asylum backlog?\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”It can take years for the government to decide whether someone should be granted asylum.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”In {{initialBacklogPeople.period}}, {{initialBacklogPeople.value}} people – across {{initialBacklogApplications.value}} asylum applications – were waiting for an initial decision. The number of people awaiting an initial decision {{initialBacklogPeople.change}} previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”As of {{appealsBacklog.period}}, a further {{appealsBacklog.value}} refused asylum applications were part of a second backlog, waiting the outcome of an appeal in the courts. This {{appealsBacklog.change}} previous year.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Together, these initial decision and appeal cases form the government’s total asylum applications backlog, [which it has pledged to clear](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo).\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25616291?2496655\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25616291\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A stacked bar chart of applications awaiting a first decision and appeals caseload at first-tier tribunal, by quarter from, June 2015 to June 2026 The backlog increased from around 25,000 in 2015 to around 180,000 in 2023. This was largely due to more applications awaiting an initial decision. Since 2023, the number of applicants awaiting an initial decision has declined, but the appeals caseload has widened. In June 2026 there were 32,401 initial decisions. Appeals data for June 2026 is not available.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”450\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”384\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”Refugee status was granted in about {{initialBacklogDecisions.percent}} of asylum decisions made by the Home Office from {{initialBacklogDecisions.period}}.\\\”,\\\”hotels-and-applications__accordion-4__component__para-6\\\”:\\\”About {{appealsBacklogDecisions.percent}} of asylum appeal cases concluded between {{appealsBacklogDecisions.period}} resulted in a previous refusal decision being overturned.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__include-title\\\”:\\\”Returns and deportations from the UK\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people are returned or deported from the UK?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The government requires people who are in the UK, but no longer have permission to live or work in the country, to leave.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”This is called a return and can happen voluntarily or involuntarily.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”People can lose the right to be in the UK for different reasons, such as a visa expiring, an asylum claim being refused, or by receiving a criminal conviction that results in deportation.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”There were {{returns.value}} returns from {{returns.period}}. This {{returns.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-1__component__para-5\\\”:\\\”That number of returns is equivalent to about {{emigration.percent}} of total emigration from the UK from {{emigration.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”Who is returned from the UK?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Of all returns from {{smallBoatReturns.period}}:\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”- {{offenderReturns.value}} had been convicted of a criminal offence\\\\n- {{asylumReturns.value}} had lodged an asylum claim at some point\\\\n- {{smallBoatReturns.value}} had arrived in the UK by small boat\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”People from {{nationalityReturns.top}} made up {{nationalityReturns.percent}} of all returns from {{nationalityReturns.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25609746?2496655\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25609746\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries by number of returns from the UK, from July 2025 to June 2026. The countries and their figures are as follows: India: 10,859, Brazil: 5,559, Albania: 3,901, Romania: 2,065, and Nigeria: 1,528\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”What is the ‘one in, one out’ deal with France?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The UK is [trialing a scheme with France](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg653r06jgo) to return people who arrived in the country on a small boat.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”For every person the UK sends back to France, the UK will accept an equal number of asylum seekers.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”This is called the \\\\\\\”one in, one out\\\\\\\” deal. As of {{oneInOneOut.period}}, {{oneInOneOut.value}} people have been returned through this arrangement.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__header\\\”:\\\”How do people leave the UK under immigration control?\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Returns can happen in different ways. \\\\\\\”Enforced returns\\\\\\\”, which includes deportations, means the government arranges transport to return people to a different country. In some cases, people are escorted by officers.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”All other returns are \\\\\\\”voluntary\\\\\\\”. This means a person has agreed to leave and may receive government help with travel and other costs to help facilitate the return.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Some people classed as leaving the country voluntarily do so completely independently and without [any government knowledge or involvement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyw8jw11jwo).\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Independent returns made up {{independentReturns.percent}} of the total from {{independentReturns.period}}.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25575553?2496655\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25575553\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A stacked area chart of the number of immigration returns from the UK each quarter. The area is segmented by the type of return: government involved or independent. Independent includes those who left the country without telling authorities and were discovered later. Excludes those denied entry at a port. The chart covers each quarter from March 2015 to June 2026. In 2015, returns per quarter hovered around 11,000. Returns decreased throughout the latter half of the decade and in the pandemic; total returns were around 2000 in 2020. Independent and government-involved returns, however, have since increased. In the quarter ending June 2026 there were 6,769 government involved returns and 2,808 independent returns.\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”416\\\”,\\\”foreign-nationals__accordion-4__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”368\\\”,\\\”visas__include-title\\\”:\\\”Visas for legal migration\\\”,\\\”visas__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How do people come to the UK legally?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Most people who come to the UK do so legally, after being granted a visa before they travel.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”A visa gives someone permission to enter or stay in the UK for a specific purpose, such as work, study or joining family members.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”There were {{entryVisas.value}} people who came to the UK via visas from {{entryVisas.period}}, not including visitors or people transiting through the UK. This {{entryVisas.change}} same period the previous year.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”That does not mean all those people travelled to the UK, only that they were approved to do so.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”What are the most common reasons for entry each year?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The most common type of visa people came to the UK on was {{topVisaType.top}}, which made up {{topVisaType.percent}} of all visa entries from {{entryVisas.period}}.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25575781?2496655\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25575781\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the number of visa entries by type of visa from July 2025 to June 2026. The number of visas by type is as follows: Study: 385,974, Work: 234,841, Family: 57,590, and Other: 49,082. For contrast, there were 38,086 entries without permission in the same period.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”450\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”400\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”Who gets the most common UK visas?\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”People from {{topVisaNationality.top}} were the most common group to come to the UK on {{topVisaType.top}} visas, making up {{topVisaNationality.percent}} of the total.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”Together, people from China and India accounted for nearly half of all study visas. This has been the case for many years.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25610589?2496655\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25610589\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries who receive the most study visas to the UK from July 2025 to June 2026. The countries who receive the most study visas are as follows: China: 87,123, India: 83,962, Nigeria: 33,082, Pakistan: 21,330, and Nepal: 17,151. Figures include both main applicants and dependants.\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”352\\\”,\\\”visas__accordion-3__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”288\\\”,\\\”country-compare__include-title\\\”:\\\”Migration to Europe\\\”,\\\”country-compare__cta\\\”:\\\”Tap the questions below\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__header\\\”:\\\”How many people cross to Europe illegally in boats?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The EU and UK monitor the number of people crossing borders in the Mediterranean and English Channel by sea without permission.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”There were {{seaArrivalsEU.value}} sea arrivals to the UK, Greece, Italy, Spain and Cyprus from {{seaArrivalsUK.period}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”Crossings to the UK accounted for about {{seaArrivalsUK.percent}} of the combined total.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”Sea arrivals into mainland Europe peaked in 2015, when the UN said [more than a million people](https://www.unhcr.org/news/stories/over-one-million-sea-arrivals-reach-europe-2015) crossed the Mediterranean.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25617710?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25617710\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A line chart showing yearly arrivals by sea without permission to European countries from April 2018 to July 2026. Italy has generally had the highest numbers, peaking in March 2024 at around 140,000. Greece, Spain, and the UK have fluctuated around 50,000 a year. Cyprus has remained lower than 8,000 throughout.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted\\\”:\\\”TRUE\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”448\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-1__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”416\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__header\\\”:\\\”How many people apply for asylum in Europe?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”The top three countries with the most people claiming asylum from {{asylumClaims.period}} were {{asylumClaims1.value}}, {{asylumClaims2.value}} and {{asylumClaims3.value}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The UK ranked at number {{asylumClaims.rank}} for asylum claims over the same period when compared with 26 other European countries with populations over one million.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”When adjusted for population size, the UK ranks at number {{asylumClaimsRate.rank}} for asylum applications per 100,000 people.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25996564?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25996564\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of European countries with the highest asylum applicants per 100,000 residents from January 2025 to December 2025. Applications includes dependents. Only EU+ countries with a population of over a million were and that include asylum and refugee figures in migration data were included.The top five countries and their rate of asylum application per 100,000 residents are as follows: Greece, ranked first: 532, Spain, ranked second: 290, Switzerland, ranked third: 261, Ireland, ranked fourth: 243, and Belgium, ranked fifth: 233. The UK, also shown, ranks ninth, with 145 asylum applicants per 100,000\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__flourish_classes\\\”:\\\”flourish-embed\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__mega_height\\\”:\\\”496\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-2__component__embed-1__hoisted_height\\\”:\\\”448\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__header\\\”:\\\”How does net migration compare across Europe?\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-1\\\”:\\\”Net migration measures the overall change in a country’s population due to migration over a given period. It is everyone coming into the country (immigration) minus everyone who leaves (emigration).\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-2\\\”:\\\”The latest available data to compare the UK with other European nations is {{netMigrationEU.period}}.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-3\\\”:\\\”At that point, the countries with the biggest increase in their population were {{netMigrationEU1.value}}, {{netMigrationEU2.value}} and {{netMigrationEU3.value}}, after taking into account the people who left the country, and those who arrived.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__para-4\\\”:\\\”When adjusting for population size, the UK was in position {{netMigrationEU.rank}} for increase in population due to migration, alongside 13 other European countries with comparable data per 100,000 residents.\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__type\\\”:\\\”flourish\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_visualisation_id\\\”:\\\”25702682?2496655\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_fallback_id\\\”:\\\”25702682\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_iframe_title\\\”:\\\”Data chart\\\”,\\\”country-compare__accordion-3__component__embed-1__flourish_alt\\\”:\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top 5 European countries by net migration per 100,000 residents. The countries and figures are as follows: Ireland: 1,308, Spain: 1,288, Switzerland: 926, Netherlands: 658, Norway: 613, and UK: 498. 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class=\\\”embed-wrapper embed-wrapper–module\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-topper\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__fallback\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture\\n sm-picture–ratio-\\n sm-picture–fit-\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cpicture class=\\\”sm-picture__picture\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25572774/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25572774/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25572774/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\”>\\n \\u003csource srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25572774/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003cimg loading=\\\”eager\\\” src=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25572774/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” alt=\\\”A step chart of small boat crossings over a calendar year for each year starting in 2021. The year-end totals were as follows 2021: 28,526, 2022: 45,755, 2023: 29,437, 2024: 36,816, 2025: 41,472. As of 28 August, there have been 16,513 small boat crossings to the UK in 2026. Out of the years plotted, this is the fifth highest number of small boat arrivals by this date.\\\” width=\\\”100%\\\” height=\\\”\\\” />\\n \\u003c/picture>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__flourish-container hidden hoisted\\\” style=\\\”height: 22rem;\\\” >\\n \\u003cdiv id=\\\”embed\\\” data-height=\\\”100%\\\” class=\\\”flourish-embed flourish-embed-iframe\\\” data-src=\\\”visualisation/25572774?2496655\\\” style=\\\”height: 100%; width: 100%\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”crosshead-cta\\\”>Tap the questions below\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>How many people cross the English Channel in small boats?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>Between 1 January and 1 September 2026, a total of 16,513 people crossed the English Channel by small boat from France. This was down by 43% on the same period the previous year.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>These crossings have become the most common way for people to be detected entering the UK illegally since 2020.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>Nearly all those who arrive by small boat claim asylum. Under international law, this means they are allowed to stay in the country while their asylum application is considered.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>Small boat arrivals made up 40% of asylum applications between July 2025 to June 2026.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>Boats that arrived in the UK from 2 September 2025 to 1 September 2026 carried an average of 68 people. This has more than doubled since 2021.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>Experts say \\u003ca href=\\\”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9j8r8z90wo\\\” target=\\\”_top\\\”>overcrowding in boats makes crossings riskier\\u003c/a>. At least 84 people died while attempting to cross the Channel in 2024, according to the United Nations (UN).\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>When looking at the scale of small boats crossings, the number of these arrivals is about 5% of the size of total immigration into the UK from January 2025 to December 2025.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>The government has pledged to \\u003ca href=\\\”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dqqj0v1ndo\\\” target=\\\”_top\\\”>“smash the gangs”\\u003c/a> behind these crossings in order to reduce the numbers.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>Who is arriving in the UK on small boats?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>People from Eritrea accounted for 18% of all arrivals from July 2025 to June 2026.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__fallback\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture\\n sm-picture–ratio-\\n sm-picture–fit-\\\”>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-picture__content\\\”>\\n \\u003cpicture class=\\\”sm-picture__picture\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25573101/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25573101/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003csource type=\\\”image/webp\\\” srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25573101/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\”>\\n \\u003csource srcset=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25573101/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” media=\\\”(min-width: )\\\”>\\n \\u003cimg loading=\\\”eager\\\” src=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/25573101/thumbnail?v=1.1\\\” alt=\\\”A horizontal bar chart of the top five countries from which the UK receives most arrivals by small boat. The countries and corresponding arrivals detected are as follows: Eritrea with 5,875 arrivals detected, Sudan with 4,191 arrivals detected, Afghanistan with 4,042 arrivals detected, Somalia with 3,901 arrivals detected, and Iran with 3,657 arrivals detected. The figures are for July 2025 to June 2026.\\\” width=\\\”100%\\\” height=\\\”\\\” />\\n \\u003c/picture>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”sm-flourish-embed__flourish-container hidden \\\” style=\\\”height: 22rem;\\\” >\\n \\u003cdiv id=\\\”embed\\\” data-height=\\\”100%\\\” class=\\\”flourish-embed flourish-embed-iframe\\\” data-src=\\\”visualisation/25573101?2496655\\\” style=\\\”height: 100%; width: 100%\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cp>In the latest figures covering January 2025 to December 2025, at least 2,335 people who arrived by small boat were found to be potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery, according to the Home Office.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003cdetails class=\\\”sm-accordion\\\”>\\n \\u003csummary class=\\\”sm-summary\\\”>\\n \\u003cspan>How else do people stay in the UK without permission?\\u003c/span>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”toggle-icon\\\”>\\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/summary>\\n \\u003cp>Another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission via other methods including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries or through airports from July 2025 to June 2026. This was down by 17% on the same period the previous year.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>There are also individuals who arrive legally, for example via a work or study visa, and then overstay their limit.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003cp>The total number of people who live in the UK illegally after arriving legally is not known.\\u003c/p>\\n \\u003c/details> \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cdiv class=\\\”embed-footer\\\”>\\n \\u003ca href=\\\”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70989jrdweo\\\” target=\\\”_blank\\\”>See more key stats on hotels, small boats and asylum\\u003c/a>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n \\u003cnoscript>\\u003clink href=\\\”https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/newsspec/41039-migration-dashboard-2025/assets/embed/css/small-boats.css??v=1.0.202609021540.undefined\\\” rel=\\\”stylesheet\\\”>\\u003c/noscript>\\n \\u003cscript src=\\\”https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.js\\\”>\\u003c/script>\\n \\u003c/div>\\n\\u003c/div>\\n\\u003cstyle 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The U.S. Navy’s newest stated requirements for its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) effort point toward a drone that sounds very much like an advanced uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), rather than a smaller and less capable autonomous ‘loyal wingman’ intended to economically augment crewed fighters. Overall, the new requirements serve as a tacit admission that the Navy is still looking for the kind of drone that it previously explored with extreme promise in the X-47B and Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) program. The UCLASS requirements were abruptly shelved and replaced with an uncrewed carrier-based tanker effort, which resulted in the MQ-25 Stingray. This act was seen by some as one of the most controversial and puzzling procurement decisions in modern naval aviation history.

The traditional loyal wingman or CCA concept generally envisions uncrewed ‘fighter’ aircraft whose primary purpose is to complement crewed companions. This typically involves extending the crewed platform’s sensor reach, carrying additional weapons, and opening up a greatly expanded tactics playbook. An advanced UCAV, by contrast, is fundamentally an independent combat aircraft in its own right, designed to deliver weapons and other effects similar to what a crewed platform can provide without requiring a crew onboard or nearby. As such, it is more capable, survivable, and an overall ‘exquisite’ asset with a heavier payload, more capable of taking the place of a crewed aircraft in certain roles, rather than augmenting them, although there is nothing keeping them from working in a loyal wingman type role if required.

Yesterday, Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) released a new Request for Information (RFI) that lays out an unusually demanding set of requirements for a CCA Increment 1 prototype. Among other things, the Navy wants an aircraft capable of operating from its aircraft carriers, carrying plentiful weapons, conducting strike missions in highly contested environments, and operating both independently and as part of a larger crewed-uncrewed team.

The combination of these requirements provides a much clearer picture of what the Navy wants its future carrier-based combat drones to be capable of.

Perhaps the most striking requirement concerns weapons carriage. The Navy says the Increment 1 CCA must have the ability to carry four externally mounted weapons weighing up to 2,500 pounds each throughout the target flight envelope and during carrier certification activities. That equates to a potential external weapons load of 10,000 pounds, although it should not necessarily be interpreted as the aircraft’s normal operational configuration. By way of comparison, a very heavily loaded F/A-18E/F Super Hornet might launch with close to 17,000 pounds of weapons and stores — though that is far from common.

Meanwhile, the kinds of drones that the U.S. Air Force is currently exploring under its own separate CCA Increment 1 effort, namely the General Atomics YFQ-42A Dark Merlin and Anduril YFQ-44A Fury, are air-to-air optimized. Their primary loadout is widely expected to be a pair of AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, which is just a fraction of the Navy’s newly stated payload requirement.

The RFI NAVAIR put out yesterday also specifically asks respondents to address internal weapons carriage, with both capacity and survivability among the factors the Navy will consider. Internal stores carriage would offer obvious advantages in reducing an aircraft’s radar signature and preserving aerodynamic performance.

The Navy also wants the aircraft to have a substantial combat radius while carrying its required weapons load, as well as the ability to spend at least 30 minutes on station while retaining sufficient fuel reserves to return to the carrier.

For a CCA, carrier operations add another layer of complexity. The aircraft must be capable of catapult launches and arrested landings from both Ford and Nimitz class carriers, while operating within existing carrier deck, elevator, hangar, and support constraints.

Autonomy is similarly central to the concept. The Navy wants mission and flight autonomy that can support the aircraft from launch through recovery, along with the ability to incorporate third-party mission software. The prototype is also expected to demonstrate both individual and multi-aircraft autonomous operations. While crewed-uncrewed teaming is a fundamental part of the concept, the latest requirements make it clear that the aircraft will not depend on a crewed aircraft continuously supervising its actions.

The video below from Collins Aerospace offers a notional look at what crewed-uncrewed teaming involving carrier- and land-based CCA-type drones might look like in the future.

Collaborative Mission Autonomy

In terms of the survivability requirement, the Navy specifically wants the aircraft to operate in highly contested environments and is asking industry to provide approaches for assessing and managing survivability during collaborative operations. The consideration of internal weapons carriage is another indication that signature reduction and survivability are important design considerations, pointing to a low-observable (stealthy) platform.

All of this begins to blur the distinction between the Navy’s Increment 1 CCA plan and a traditional survivable UCAV concept.

That does not necessarily mean the Navy is abandoning the CCA concept entirely in favor of resurrecting the carrier-based UCAV concept. Rather, it suggests that the distinction between the two becomes blurred as requirements overlap. There also remains the strong possibility (or more likely probability) that the Navy will seek to explore CCA designs closer to what the Air Force, as well as the U.S. Marine Corps, are pursuing. This could potentially include development of carrier-based versions of one or more of those designs under a future increment.

The new RFI is also consistent with the Navy’s broader Air Wing of the Future effort (AWOTF).

An earlier NAVAIR sources-sought notice released in July outlined an expansive vision for future carrier-based uncrewed aircraft covering missions including surface warfare; strike warfare; anti-submarine warfare; air warfare; electronic warfare; intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting (ISR&T); mobility; and logistics. That notice also pointed toward aircraft capable of attacking targets at least 1,000 nautical miles from the carrier without requiring aerial refueling, while leaving open the possibility of extending that reach with tankers.

Intriguingly, the new RFI does not include an explicit maximum range target, but based on the payload requirements alone, this would be very considerable, reflecting the Navy’s concerns about fighting a future conflict across the vast distances of the Pacific. Traditional advanced UCAVs usually have a combat radius measured in thousands of miles, not hundreds, far exceeding the reach of their crewed fighter counterparts.

Whatever the possible range target, the planned weapons load also points to a substantial airframe. Indeed, the deck-space requirement outlined in the RFI is relevant here. The CCA’s “spot factor” cannot exceed that of an existing fourth-generation fighter, meaning that it could potentially be as large as an F/A-18E/F.

Otherwise, however, the latest CCA Increment 1 RFI is considerably more concrete.

The Navy wants a first flight of a prototype within 24 months of a contract award and carrier certification during a three-year development effort. It also wants a path toward an affordability target of around $30 million per aircraft. This kind of price point would put it at the top end of the CCA concepts we have seen so far, and is fairly ambitious for a higher-end UCAV.

Navy officials said in 2024 that the CCA’s unit cost target was around $15 million, reflecting the idea that the aircraft would be sufficiently inexpensive to be expendable under some circumstances. The new RFI instead asks industry to outline a path toward an affordability target of $30 million per aircraft. That is still a fraction of the cost of a modern carrier-based fighter, but it suggests the Navy is willing to pay considerably more for an aircraft with substantially greater weapons capacity, range, autonomy, and survivability.

As to the companies that might respond to the RFI, in August of last year, the Navy confirmed that Anduril, Boeing, General Atomics, and Northrop Grumman were all on contract for “conceptual” CCA designs. At that time, the service also said Lockheed Martin had been hired to work on a common control architecture for the drones. Lockheed Martin is already the prime contractor for the control stations and associated software the service is integrating onto its carriers now to support the MQ-25.

The new RFI, however, marks a shift from the conceptual studies described last year toward a specific prototype effort. The Navy is seeking industry input as it shapes the acquisition strategy, with responses due September 18.

In the past, the Navy has said it is aiming for the total makeup of carrier air wings to eventually be 60 percent or more uncrewed, although the precise balance is still to be determined and will certainly be informed by the lessons of Navy CCA Increment 1. Exactly how the CCA might fit in with the Navy’s sixth-generation crewed fighter – known as F/A-XX – is another intriguing prospect, but would clearly be optimized to work alongside that platform.

Now, back to the Navy’s earlier effort to develop a high-end, stealthy, carrier-based UCAV capability. Northrop Grumman built two X-47B demonstrators for that program, both of which underwent extensive flight testing, including carrier operations and aerial refueling. The aircraft flew from 2011 for around half a decade. As of 2022, both X-47Bs had been earmarked for eventual public display at museums.

The two X-47Bs had offered far more than a glimpse of what a carrier-based UCAV capability might look like, and the base design was set to evolve into an operational type. These were large, stealthy UCAVs with thousands of pounds of payload and endurance that far outstripped crewed naval fighter aircraft. The follow-on UCLASS program aimed to see the capabilities the X-47 demonstrated put into operation via a new aircraft procurement effort. However, it transformed into the radically different, less ambitious, tanker-focused Carrier-Based Aerial-Refueling System (CBARS) program in the mid-2010s. This, as noted, led to the MQ-25 Stingray.

To this day, the cancellation of UCLASS remains a very sore spot and is widely seen as a nearsighted and even reckless decision. This mirrored earlier moves by the USAF, which had demonstrated how revolutionary UCAV capabilities could be, only to entirely walk away from the concept. In fact, that service went even further, appearing to erase those developments from recent memory. You can read all about this bizarre and troubling inflection point in American air power history and the glaring questions surrounding it in this past feature.

Fast forward to today, and the Navy is getting the MQ-25, which is primarily a tanker, but clearly, that was not the only mission set that influenced its exotic design. In fact, these Navy requirements could open the door for the Stingray platform to potentially fulfill at least parts of the Navy uncrewed combat drone role in a ‘cleaned-up,’ stealthier configuration, something we have explored in depth in the past.

Overall, the takeaway here is that the Navy’s latest CCA requirements raise the intriguing possibility that its earlier UCAV ambitions are resurfacing, this time under the CCA banner. This is happening as China is moving very quickly with its own stealthy UCAVs, a number of which are in testing, and one of which is very mature and is navalized for shipboard operations – the GJ-11 Sharp Sword. The GJ-11 sounds very similar to the Navy’s requirements wish list, including its ability to act independently and teamed with crewed counterparts, as well as its general size and need for survivability.

While an RFI only represents an early part of the contracting process, in practical terms, it looks like the Navy is asking whether industry can finally make good on the past promise of a U.S. Navy UCAV.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

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A handful of aviation photographers got a suprise eyeful of a very sleek and large aircraft silhouette on Thursday night at Long Beach Airport. One of them was Ricky Schol, who saw the mysterious airframe emerge from a hangar, prompting a double take. It was the first time in his 16 years of aviation photography at the historic airport he’d ever seen anything like it.

“I was driving home past my local airport Thursday evening here in Southern California when I saw a bright light coming from a hangar I haven’t seen open in a long time, so I doubled back to check it out,” Schol told us. “I was blown away when I pulled over and saw the future in front of my eyes. I had no clue what I was looking at. I jumped out of my vehicle and started taking pictures immediately.”

“At first glance I thought it was an F-117 Nighthawk when driving by,” said Schol, a plumber by trade. “That’s why I doubled back to see. And to my surprise I saw something I’ve never seen before, having no cockpit. It left me with a very curious feeling.”

Schol said he did some asking around and learned more details. He would soon learn that the mysterious aircraft design was the RAVN X, an aircraft meant to launch payloads into space, made by Aevum Aerospace of Huntsville, Alabama. Schol was kind enough to share some of the photos he took of the aircraft, which he said he saw from about 100 feet in the distance. You can find his work on Instagram at @aggressoraviation_.

As you can see from the images below, the aircraft bears the FAA N Number N567RX, which has been reserved by Aevum to an address at the airport, but it appears to be a mockup — one we have likely seen before.

A mockup of the drone was introduced online with great fanfare in 2021 and described at the time by company CEO Jay Skylus as the “mothership” for a two-stage rocket able to carry a payload of just over 1,000 pounds. 

From our story when the RAVN X was unveiled: “The twin-engine Ravn X drone — described by the company as the first stage of the system — reportedly weighs 55,000 pounds, is 80 feet long, and has a wingspan of 60 feet — roughly the size of an A-5 Vigilante. The sleek drone… has seemingly been tailored for speed.” 

During the mockup roll-out, the company described what we noted back then was a “very ambitious, if not almost bizarre timeline” for getting Ravn X into the air. The plan was to start with “vehicle-level testing” to obtain the required airworthiness certification and launch licensing for operations, a process that should take 18 months, Skylus claimed. From there, Aevum planned to secure airworthiness certification for the first-stage drone from the Federal Aviation Administration. 

Following that, the next step was to commence orbital launch tests from Cecil Spaceport in Jacksonville, Florida, by late 2021. 

Aevum Ravn X Autonomous Launch Vehicle Rollout

It is unclear whether AEVUM achieved any of its goals. There are no details on the company website and the most recent information about RAVN X is from Gunter’s Space Page, a website that tracks launches.

“In December 2020 Aevum rolled out a mock-up of the Ravn-X carrier plane (although claimed to be a real prototype), but no further activities have been noticed so far,” noted Gunter’s Space Page. “It is doubtful, that any real hardware has been produced so far. By August 2024, all activities seem to have stopped.”

We reached out to Skylus and Aevum for more details.

Given that RAVN X has all but disappeared from public notice, Schol and a few other photographers at the airport caught a rare glimpse.

“I was there from the time they pulled it out to the time they pulled it in,” he told us. “They lined it up on the runway. It moved a little bit, but not much.”

Schol said he didn’t hear the engines or see any exhaust.

“I don’t know exactly what they were testing or trying to accomplish that night,” he proffered.

Mockups can be modified for limited ground tests and other important work, which could be the case here. Regardless, RAVN X does appear to be still alive as a program.

If we find out any details, we will pass them along.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

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