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Ukraine’s Shahed-killing Antonov An-28 Cash twin-turboprop utility aircraft are now air-launching interceptor drones to provide another means of defeating their targets. This is among the latest developments in Ukraine’s battle against Russian long-range one-way attack drones, one that has seen each side introduce new technologies and countermeasures in what has become one of the fastest-moving aspects of the conflict.

⚡️The legendary civilian Ukrainian An-28, modified into a “Shahed hunter” with over 150 confirmed kills, has now been adapted to launch interceptor drones in flight. pic.twitter.com/aAv3by9gLA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 23, 2026

The video of the An-28 armed with interceptor drones was apparently first published by Ukrainian pilot and volunteer Tymur Fatkullin, who has previously documented other extemporized aviation initiatives, including using the six-barrel Gatling-type M134 Minigun to blast Russian drones out of the air.

In this new iteration, the An-28 has underwing hardpoints mounting two types of Ukrainian-made interceptor drones, the SkyFall P1-Sun and the Merops AS-3 Surveyor. Earlier this month, we wrote about how the Merops drones have been effectively used by the U.S. military to counter Iranian Shahed attacks in the Middle East.

Alongside the video, Fatkullin provided the following account:

“Aircraft-launched P1-Sun interceptor against hostile Shaheds. This method has already proven effective in real combat conditions. We have also tested several other interceptor drones during training flights. You could call it a cheap air-to-air missile.”

Fatkullin also added that, at this point, the An-28 has additionally brought down 222 Russian drones using gun armament.

A passenger An-28 aircraft armed with miniguns is shooting down Russian drones over Ukraine, French TF1 got an inside. The crew consists of civilian volunteers who have already destroyed nearly 150 drones during air defense missions. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/x1E921TPT2

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) February 5, 2026

As we have previously reported, Ukraine has been successfully using several locally produced drones to counter Russian Shaheds for some time now.

Both the P1-Sun and the AS-3 Surveyor are small, relatively inexpensive drones built specifically to zip through the skies and intercept long-range one-way attack drones.

In the case of the P1-Sun, this uses a modular, 3D-printed airframe, can operate at altitudes up to 16,400 feet (5,000 meters), and reach speeds of up to 280 miles per hour (450 km/h). This is sufficient to intercept jet-powered drones such as the Russian Geran-3, under some circumstances.

Meanwhile, the AS-3 Surveyor is a somewhat more expensive and more capable option, intended for use against higher-end threats. These interceptors can operate autonomously or be remotely piloted and are equipped with onboard sensors for target tracking. The interceptor carries an explosive warhead and destroys targets either through a direct collision or a proximity detonation.

A video shows the AS-3 Surveyor during a live-fire demonstration in Poland in November 2025:

A new system to identify and take down Russian drones is deployed to NATO’s eastern flank

According to the U.S. Army, a single example of the Merops-made drone costs around $15,000, with the potential to reduce this to between $3,000 and $5,000 if production is scaled up. This compares with the estimated cost of between $30,000 and $50,000 for a Shahed. Provided the interceptor drones are effective, the economic case is a very compelling one.

Having interceptor drones launched from aircraft provides a number of advantages. The An-28 is able to bring the interceptor drone closer to the target and to use its own sensors to help locate these. As we have reported in the past, the An-28 crew initially relies on air traffic controllers to guide them to the area where drones are known to be flying. One of the crew is a ‘camera operator,’ monitoring a feed from an infrared camera. Members of the crew are also provided with night-vision goggles (NVGs) for spotting the mainly nocturnal drones.

The turboprop also offers significant loiter time for standing anti-drone patrols, which can be set up as a screen where they are most advantageous. At the same time, having the drone launched from the air reduces the response time. Launching from height gives the interceptor drone additional altitude and range.

There is also the benefit of having a choice of weapons (different types of drones, guns, and potentially also rockets) to respond to various drone threats.

Furthermore, the An-28’s short takeoff and landing (STOL) capability makes it ideal for operating in and out of shorter and more austere airstrips, of the kind that Ukraine makes extensive use of in the conflict with Russia.

This threat is only set to grow. Russia, as we have previously noted, now manufactures Shahed/Geran drones at the rate of 2,000 per month and has announced plans to nearly triple that.

Already, interceptor drones have established themselves as a much more cost-effective option compared to surface-to-air missile interceptors like the Patriot system, and even cheaper, less advanced missiles when it comes to countering Shahed-type drones. Although these drones lack the payload and range of high-end munitions, they can be deployed in large numbers, allowing them to cover broad areas. This, in turn, helps preserve the limited supply of more sophisticated interceptors and reverses the unfavorable cost dynamic between targets and defensive systems. Even so, such solutions are most effective when integrated into a layered defense, particularly for protecting high-value sites and critical infrastructure.

The small size of interceptor drones also makes them suitable for arming lighter aircraft, crewed and uncrewed. Ukraine already makes use of ‘mothership’ drones, while helicopters and even gun-armed Yakovlev Yak-52 prop trainers, also used to hunt drones, could potentially carry them under their wings. Already, light aircraft and helicopters are said to be responsible for downing between 10 and 12 percent of all drones claimed by Ukrainian air defenses of all kinds.

Inside the Cockpit of Ukraine’s Secretive Unit Hunting Russian Drones | WSJ News

It isn’t hard to see how this concept could be rapidly evolved and executed even more effectively and efficiently with better technology. For instance, having MQ-9 Reapers loaded with these drones and equipped with air-to-air radar would allow for a long-range, long-endurance picket aircraft of sorts. In the context of the war in the Middle East, parking these between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran, over the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, could go a long way to stopping incoming Shahed-136 and other one-way attack drones at a tiny fraction of the cost of surface-to-air missiles.

Arming crewed aircraft with interceptor drones is the latest expression of Ukraine’s fast-developing counter-drone arsenal. If it proves successful, we will likely see its wider adoption. After all, anything that helps change the calculus for Ukraine in the drone war is likely to be enthusiastically adopted.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Russia launched more than 600 drones and 47 missiles as it targeted eight regions in Dnpiro, authorities say.

Overnight Russian attacks in eight regions of Ukraine have killed at least five people and wounded 30 others, Ukrainian officials say.

The central Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hardest hit, with more than 20 people reported wounded, including a nine-year-old and two police officers, according to a Telegram statement from Ukraine’s National Police.

Two people died in the city of Nizhyn in the northern region of Chernihiv, while a one-year-old boy was among the wounded in Kharkiv region, police said.

A rescue operation was underway at a residential building in Dnipro, while emergency services worked in regions across Ukraine, including in Chernihiv, Odesa and Kharkiv.

Donetsk Governor Vadym Filashkin wrote on Telegram that one person was wounded in attacks on Sloviansk, and another in Kramatorsk. Six homes, five high-rises and buildings, including a post office and a church, also reported damage.

Ukraine’s Air Force tallied 619 Russian drones and 47 missiles launched during the attacks. Air defences shot down or suppressed 610 of them, it said.

“Russia’s tactics remain unchanged – attack drones, cruise missiles, and a significant number of ballistic missiles. Most targets are civilian infrastructure in cities,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X on Saturday, along with a video of emergency workers responding to shelled-out buildings.

The latest attacks came on the heels of the killings of a Ukrainian married couple, both aged 75, during a Russian strike on the port city of Odesa yesterday. Strikes also destroyed residential buildings and hit a foreign ship, Ukrainian authorities said.

The European Union this week approved a new round of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy, banking and trade sectors. Discussions had previously stalled amid opposition from Hungary.

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, called on Friday for a new package of sanctions, telling reporters in Cyprus that the EU is “really pushing”.

Zelenskyy urged European leaders to expedite the process in light of the latest attacks.

“The pause caused by the blocking of the 20th package gave the aggressor additional time to adapt – it is important to counter this,” he added.

Africa has shown itself in the past week again as a continent of dramatic contrasts, in which moral leadership, political turmoil, and financial aspiration come into collision in a manner that would not only chart its own future but also that of the world. The continent is going through a time that is both precarious and radical, as the potent moral rhetoric of a papal visit gives way to an ever-worsening political persecution and systemic economic disparities.

A Moral Voice in a Fractured Continent

The visit of Pope Leo in some parts of Africa, such as Angola and Cameroon, has been one of the most intriguing this week. His message attracted crowds of more than 10,0000 people, and it was not only religious but also very political, declaring Africa a beautiful but wounded continent and demanding unity, justice, and an end to violence.

It is not only the size of the meetings but also the content of the message that is important. The Pope was outspoken in an attack on corruption, inequality, and exploitative governance systems—the problems that are at the core of most of the struggles in Africa today. His words about people being more important than corporate interests are well-received in a continent where natural resource wealth has not always translated into widespread prosperity.

This visit was, in a sense, a symbol of a greater fact: Africa is not merely economically or politically challenged; it is morally and structurally challenged. The unity cry in Angola, the nation that is yet to overcome the adverse effects of decades of civil war, is a symptom of the bigger continental necessity to mend the wounds of the past and deal with the inequalities of the present.

Political Tensions and Disappearance of Space of Dissent

As the moral pleas of unity reverberated in stadiums, political realities on the ground painted an even more disturbing scenario. The South African arrest of activist Kemi Seba is part of an increasing trend in some parts of Africa, where there is an increased crackdown on dissenting voices.

Seba, the anti-colonial and anti-Western rhetoricist and critic of Western influence, now risks extradition to Benin on charges of inciting rebellion. His detention highlights a broader conflict: the fight between state power and political activism in an area where the democratic institutions are not yet balanced.

This is not a one-time event. Governments all over the continent are striking a fine balance between ensuring stability and political expression. In other instances, this equilibrium is leaning towards control over being open, and this leaves one worrying about the future of democratic governance.

The consequences are not confined nationally. The political situation in Africa is a topic of keen interest to the rest of the world, not just due to its size and population but because it offers one of the final avenues of democratic growth in the 21st century. Political space is reduced here, causing ripples way beyond the continent.

Structural Gaps in Economic Promise

Africa is still a puzzle economically. On paper, the figures are encouraging. Recently, South Africa obtained the promise of billions of investments, which indicates a great interest of other countries in the areas of green energy, infrastructure, and digital development. But the facts speak otherwise. Of these promised investments, only around 42 percent have been translated into real economic activity—much less than world averages. This delivery gap is indicative of an ongoing problem: it is one thing to attract investment and another to implement it.

Simultaneously, the recent climate financing agreement of South Africa with Germany that provides hundreds of millions of euros of loans and green energy assistance reminds us about the increased role of the continent in the global climate plan. Africa is also being increasingly viewed not only as a beneficiary of aid but also as a prime actor in the shift to sustainable energy.

However, structural problems are quite rooted. The effectiveness of economic initiatives is still hampered by policy inconsistency, poor infrastructure, and governance issues. Even the most ambitious plans of investment have a chance of failing without these underlying problems being addressed.

The Overlooked Crisis: Environment and Illicit Economies

The other trend of importance this week has been the further increase in wildlife trafficking in Nigeria, even though the legislation has been taking measures to reduce it. A lack of complete legislation on wildlife protection has allowed the illegal trade to continue, with several seizures of endangered species over the past few months.

The problem is indicative of a larger problem: that of a nexus between environmental degradation and ineffective enforcement. Africa has one of the most biodiverse regions in the world, but it is rapidly being threatened by illegal trade, climate change, and the exploitation of resources.

The inability to adequately deal with such problems not only damages the ecosystems but also weakens the governance and the stability of the economy. In places where there is poor regulation, illegal economies flourish and, as a result, establish parallel economies that undermine state power and promote corruption.

Africa: Moment between Opportunity and Uncertainty

Collectively, what happened this last week shows a continent at a crossroads. On the one hand, there is an increasing international appreciation of the significance of Africa, be it in climate policy, economic investment, or geopolitical strategy. Conversely, internal threats persist to restrict its ability to exploit these opportunities to their full potential.

The message of unity and justice that the Pope is calling for is the spirit of this moment. Africa is not poor in resources, talent, and potential. The greater challenge it confronts is alignment itself, leadership and citizens, economic growth and social equity, and global engagement and local realities.

Conclusion: A Turning Point, Not a Passing Moment

The events of this week do not represent one-off headlines, but they are evidence of larger trends that are defining the future of Africa. The continent is not just responding to the global events—it is steadily becoming one of the main arenas where the global issues are acted out.

The doubt now arises whether Africa will be able to utilize this moment of attention to become a changed continent. Will investment be translated into development? Will politics become more open? Do ethical demands of cohesion result in practical change?

The responses are unclear. Nevertheless, there is one thing that is clear: Africa is never at the periphery of world affairs any longer. It is here in the center, and what occurs here during times of this kind will make the continent and indeed the world.

A prominent shipping organisation has condemned the United States and Iran’s tit-for-tat capture of commercial ships and is calling for the immediate release of their crews.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, John Stawpert, marine director of the International Chamber of Shipping, said seafarers must be allowed to go about their business “freely and without persecution”.

Stawpert, whose organisation is the top trade association for merchant shipowners and operators worldwide, called the capture of the vessels an affront to freedom of navigation as enshrined in international law.

“All these people are doing is transporting trade. And really, we can’t have a situation where ships are being seized, ultimately for political ends, to prove a political point,” said Stawpert, whose organisation represents about 80 percent of the world’s merchant fleet.

“These are innocent farers and they should be allowed to go about their jobs without fear of, essentially, imprisonment.”

Stawpert said Iran’s stated wish to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz had no basis in international law and would set a dangerous precedent.

“If you can do it in the Strait of Hormuz, why can’t you do it in the Strait of Gibraltar, say, or the Straits of Malacca?” he asked.

Stawpert also said the US President Donald Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports had heaped further uncertainty on shipping companies already reeling from Iran’s effective closure of the strait.

“We don’t know what conditions are in place. We don’t know what the targeting criteria of Iran are really,” Stawpert said. “And so we then have another state coming in, effectively doing the same thing through the blockade of the straits”.

The US and Iranian militaries have each announced the capture of two commercial vessels over the past week as Washington and Tehran continue to face off in the strait and in waters beyond the Gulf.

The US defence department on Thursday said it had captured the Iran-linked Majestic X as it was transporting sanctioned oil in the Indian Ocean, days after announcing the interception of another ship, Tifani.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday said it seized the Panamanian-flagged MSC Francesca and the Greek-owned Epaminondas for “operating without the necessary permits and tampering with navigation systems”.

The Philippines’ Department of Migrant Workers on Wednesday confirmed 15 Filipino seafarers were on the two vessels.

Officials said they had been assured by Iranian authorities that all the crew were “unharmed” and “safe.”

Montenegro’s maritime minister, Filip Radulovic, said in an interview with the state broadcaster earlier this week that four Montenegrin crew on the MSC Francesca were “fine”.

There have been no official updates on the condition of the crews on the vessels captured by US forces.

“It seems they’re not being maltreated,” Stawpert said. “But even so, that’s not really the point. The point is they shouldn’t be in custody in the first place”.

Stawpert also expressed concern for the well-being of an estimated 20,000 seafarers who have been left stranded in the Gulf due to the effective closure of the strait.

“Their welfare is also a priority for us,” he said. “The psychological burden, I think, will be beginning to tell on them after seven weeks now of what’s, to all intents and purposes, house arrest”.

Stawpert called on both the US and Iran to respect freedom of navigation.

“Let’s resume freedom of navigation and respect the right to innocent passage as soon as we possibly can,” he said.

The blockage of the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, has driven up fuel prices worldwide and forced many governments to start emergency energy-saving measures.

Traffic in the waterway remains a fraction of pre-war levels, with reports saying just five ships transited the strait in the last 24 hours.

Before the US and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, the strait saw a daily average of 129 transits, according to the United Nations Trade and Development.

A day after President Donald Trump ordered U.S. forces to destroy Iranian ships laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Friday said efforts to prevent mining are already underway.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) “has a variety of smaller Boston Whaler-size boats,” Air Force Gen. Dan Caine told reporters, including from The War Zone, during a Friday morning media briefing. “We have forces up there deterring and preventing them from continuing to [lay mines], and will continue to do so pursuant to the orders of the Secretary and the President.”

You can hear Caine’s comments on Iranian mining at the 23-minute mark in the following video.

Caine did not offer specifics about what assets are involved, when they arrived or what actions they have taken. The Pentagon and CENTCOM have declined to comment. A U.S. official, however, did provide us with some additional information.

“Iran likely placed some mines in or near the Strait at some point during the conflict,” the official told us, speaking anonymously to discuss operational details. “We’re not talking about a high volume. In fact, more than 95% of Iran’s naval mines were destroyed during Operation Epic Fury.”

U.S. forces “are actively addressing the matter using a combination of manned and unmanned capabilities to ensure passage through the Strait is safe.” The official declined to say if the U.S. is actively searching for mines already laid or provide further details. In our story yesterday, we spelled out what assets the Navy has for its surface fleet to conduct demining operations, though it remains unclear how many are in the region. You can read more about that here.

As we noted, the Independence class littoral combat ship USS Canberra is the only confirmed mine sweeper currently in CENTCOM, according to a post on the Pentagon’s image sharing site that shows the ship patrolling in the Arabian Sea.

As we have frequently reported, the IRGC has invested heavily in its fleet of small boats for decades. In addition to being armed with short-range anti-ship missiles, as well as artillery rockets and other weapons, they can also be used to lay naval mines. While the president claimed that 159 Iranian ships have been destroyed, the IRGC still has a large number of these small vessels.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth, also speaking at the briefing, said “reckless mining like that is a violation of the cease fire.” He declined to say how long it will take to clear the Strait of mines.

“We would not speculate on a timeline,” he proffered in response to a question about a Washington Post story claiming Congress was informed it could take up to six months to do so. “We feel confident in our ability, in the correct period of time, to clear any mines that we identify, and we encourage other countries to be a part of such an effort as well. But we’re tracking that very closely.”

It isn’t clear why these efforts to keep small boats from mining the Strait have not been persistent and ongoing from early in the conflict, but especially now that Iran professes control over the strategic waterway. However, Hegseth derided the IRGC as a fighting force.

“Iran’s battered military, the IRGC, specifically, has been reduced to a gang of pirates with a flag,” the secretary scowled.

Sec. Of War Pete Hegseth: “The IRGC specifically has been reduced to a gang of pirates with a flag… They know that we, the United States of America, control the flow of global shipping — and we know that they know. Their real navy is at the bottom of the Arabian Gulf.” pic.twitter.com/94HNDITkMn

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) April 24, 2026

UPDATES

Caine offered some new details about the three Iranian-linked ships the U.S. interdicted this week. Those efforts started Sunday with the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska, which was fired upon and later boarded.

At about 9 a.m. EDT on Sunday, the Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Spruance “disabled the Touska‘s engine by firing nine inert rounds from the destroyer’s Mk-45 5-inch gun precisely into the engine room and engine space on board the Touska,” he explained. Seven hours later, CENTCOM gave the command for Marines to fast-rope in from helicopters and “seize the shot,” Caine added.

.@thejointstaff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine: As of this morning, 34 ships have met the U.S. blockade and made the wise choice to turn around. One ship did not. Over several hours this past Sunday, the U.S. conducted maritime interdiction operations against the Touska, whose crew… pic.twitter.com/GG5UxxDACa

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 24, 2026

China on Friday pushed back against Trump’s claim that the Touska contained a “gift from China perhaps.” The president made that claim earlier this week on CNBC. .

“China rejects any assertion and speculation that lack factual evidence,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded. “Normal trade between countries should not be disrupted.”

MFA Spokesperson’s response to President Trump’s remarks that the Iranian cargo ship intercepted by the U.S. might have carried a “gift” from China:

China rejects any assertion and speculation that lack factual evidence. Normal trade between countries should not be disrupted. pic.twitter.com/0aGAa7174N

— CHINA MFA Spokesperson 中国外交部发言人 (@MFA_China) April 24, 2026

The Touska was carrying “vital dialysis supplies and medical equipment,” Al Jazeera reported on X, citing the Iranian Red Crescent Society. The War Zone cannot independently verify that claim.

Caine also addressed the fate of two other Iranian-linked ships – the Tifani and the Majestic X – that were stopped in the Indian Ocean this week. The vessels and their crews “remain in U.S. custody, and we will continue to conduct similar maritime interdiction actions and activities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans against Iranian ships and vessels of the Dark Fleet,” Caine noted.

Jeanine Pirro, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, said the Tifani and Majestic X each contained 1.9 million barrels of oil.

Overnight, pursuant to a seizure warrant submitted by my office and signed by a federal magistrate, U.S. forces interdicted the dark fleet vessel, M/T Majestic (formerly known as the M/T Phonix), while carrying approximately 1.9 million barrels of Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean.…

— US Attorney Pirro (@USAttyPirro) April 23, 2026

German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd told us that one of its ships has recently transited the Strait of Hormuz.

“For security reasons, we will not comment on the timing or provide further details regarding this passage or on individual ships still in the Persian Gulf,” the company explained. “What we can tell you is that of the original six ships, we currently have four remaining in the Persian Gulf with approximately 100 seafarers.”

“The safety of our crews remains our highest priority,” Hapag-Lloyd’s spokesperson added. “We are in close contact with the vessels, local authorities and naval forces, and continue to monitor the situation closely. At this moment, it is not possible to predict any change of this situation.”

Overall, global trade intelligence firm Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker showed that transits through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be reduced.

Between April 22 and 23, “traffic remained low at 17 crossings of both commercial and non-commercial vessels, well below pre-crisis levels,” Kpler stated. “Ongoing monitoring provides critical insight into supply flows and potential disruption risks.” 

Strait of Hormuz | Daily Vessel Crossings:

Kpler’s Risk & Compliance tracker provides daily monitoring of vessel activity through one of the world’s most strategic maritime routes. Across 22–23 April, traffic remained low at 17 crossings of both commercial and non-commercial… pic.twitter.com/8J0pE4XjO7

— Kpler (@Kpler) April 24, 2026

Oil output from Persian Gulf nations has been running 14.5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels this month, Bloomberg News reported, citing Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which estimated any resumption would take months.

The region-wide total is 57% lower than before the outbreak of the Iran war, analysts including Daan Struyven said in an April 23 note. A possible restoration would likely take “a few months,” a scenario based on a full-and-safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and no renewed strikes, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman: Oil output from Persian Gulf nations has been running 14.5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels this month. The region-wide total is 57% lower than before the outbreak of the Iran war. A possible restoration would likely take “a few months,” a scenario based on a…

— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) April 24, 2026

Saudi Arabia has “achieved a huge boost in crude exports through its Red Sea terminals, but has yet to stabilize flows at its target level for the route,” Bloomberg also noted.

Shipments of crude to overseas destinations from Yanbu “have averaged about 4 million barrels a day in the first three weeks of April,” data compiled by the outlet show. “That’s about five times as much as Saudi Arabia exported on the route before the conflict in Iran started, but still only about 80% of Riyadh’s target.”

Saudi Arabia has achieved a huge boost in crude exports through its Red Sea terminals, but has yet to stabilize flows at its target level for the route. https://t.co/uzIybMCFqk

— Bloomberg (@business) April 24, 2026

CENTCOM provided some additional context to the arrival yesterday of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush into the region.

Joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford, it marks the first time since 2003 that there were three carriers in the area of responsibility since 2003. Combined, the three carrier strike groups have 200 aircraft, nine Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers, and 15,000 sailors and Marines.

For the first time in decades, three aircraft carriers are operating in the Middle East at the same time. Accompanied by their carrier air wings, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) include over 200 aircraft and 15,000… pic.twitter.com/fbMdz1IYn8

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 24, 2026

There may be some movement toward new talks to end the war. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the U.S. is sending a negotiating team to Pakistan where Iran’s foreign minister is already headed. The swiftly moving situation follows on the heels of previous diplomatic efforts that failed to end the 55-day-old conflict.

“I can confirm that Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be off to Pakistan again tomorrow morning to engage in talks, direct talks – intermediated by the Pakistanis who have been incredible friends and mediators throughout this entire process – with representatives of the Iranian delegation.”

“The Iranians want to talk,” Leavitt told reporters. “They want to talk in person. And so the president is, as I’ve said many, many times, to all of you, always willing to give diplomacy a chance. So Steve and Jared will be heading to Pakistan tomorrow to hear the Iranians out. We hope progress will be made, and we hope that positive developments will come from this meeting, and we will see that the President, the Vice President, the Secretary of State, will be waiting here in the United States for updates.”

Vice President JD Vance, she added,”is on standby and will be willing to dispatch to Pakistan if we feel it’s a necessary use of his time.”

CNN reported that Witkoff and Kushner will “participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.”

Scoop: Trump is sending his special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan to participate in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, two administration officials tell CNN.

VP JD Vance is not currently planning to attend given Iran’s Speaker of the…

— Alayna Treene (@alaynatreene) April 24, 2026

The move to send a U.S. team to Pakistan follows Araghchi’s announcement earlier on Friday that he will head to Pakistan Friday night and then to Oman and Russia to “closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.”

Embarking on timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow.

Purpose of my visits is to closely coordinate with our partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments.

Our neighbors are our priority.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 24, 2026

At the time of Araghchi’s announcement, it was believed that the Iranian delegation was not expected to speak with US representatives, CNN reported, citing a U.S. source and Iranian state media. However, “the Pakistanis anticipate the meeting will lead to a second round of talks between the US and Iran,” the cable network suggested. 

All this follows a second round of peace talks that failed to materialize this week after Iran declined to send negotiators to Islamabad. However, Trump extended the ceasefire to what has been reported to be sometime over this weekend. As we discussed yesterday, a large reason for Iran’s reluctance to talk may be a schism between hardliners in the IRGC and more moderate elements of the government like Araghchi. While Trump is pushing that narrative, Iranian officials are pushing back, claiming no such divide exists.

In response to Trump’s claim that there are divisions among Iranian officials, the country’s authorities released a joint statement, whose translation was also shared in a tweet by President Pezeshkian 👇 https://t.co/DnhWk9l9KD pic.twitter.com/miTVh211a4

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) April 24, 2026

Another factor that may be contributing to Iran’s lack of a concrete response to U.S. demands may be the condition of its putative leader. A reporter from The New York Times said that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei was so badly injured on the first day of Epic Fury that his face and lips are burned to the point where he has trouble speaking and that one of his legs may have been amputated.

NYT reporter says Supreme Leader Khamenei’s face is severely burned, he has trouble speaking and may need a prosthetic leg. She also says he uses a long chain of human couriers to send hand-written messages from hiding. pic.twitter.com/f9dyjuDBIK

— Erin Burnett OutFront (@OutFrontCNN) April 24, 2026

Pakistan says Araghchi called its Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar today. 

“Both sides exchanged views on regional developments, the ceasefire, and ongoing diplomatic efforts being pursued by Islamabad in the context of US-Iran engagement,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry stated on X. Dar “underscored the importance of sustained dialogue and engagement to address outstanding issues, in order to advance regional peace and stability at the earliest. Araghchi appreciated Pakistan’s consistent and constructive facilitation role in this regard, and both leaders agreed to remain in close contact.”

DPM/FM Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar @MIshaqDar50 received a call today from Foreign Minister of Iran H.E. Abbas Araghchi @Araghchi.

Both sides exchanged views on regional developments, the ceasefire, and ongoing diplomatic efforts being pursued by Islamabad in the context of… pic.twitter.com/eJ1fuVTVKE

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) April 24, 2026

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky returned to Saudi Arabia today, where he said he had a “very productive meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud.”

“We appreciate our constructive cooperation,” Zelensky stated on X. “There is a strategic security arrangement that we are actively developing across three key areas. The first is the export of Ukrainian security expertise and capabilities in air defense. The second is energy cooperation, which makes Ukraine more resilient in this difficult time. The third is the area of food security. We are working together to strengthen our peoples and our partners. We have set tasks for our teams, and I expect their prompt and full implementation.”

Last month, Zelensky said he inked 10-year defense cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

A very productive meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. We appreciate our constructive cooperation. There is a strategic security arrangement that we are actively developing across three key areas.

The first is the export of Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/Uc7fVXBHSs

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) April 24, 2026

After suffering through intense Iranian missile and drone barrages, UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash said it will take a long time to reconcile with Tehran.

“You can’t be attacked with 2,800 missiles and drones then talk to me about trust,” he stated. “That will take ages and ages.”

UAE President MbZ’s Advisor Anwar Gargash on Iran:

You can’t be attacked with 2,800 missiles and drones then talk to me about trust. That will take ages and ages. pic.twitter.com/ComhPnA7fz

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 24, 2026

An internal Pentagon email “outlines options for the United States to ​punish NATO allies it believes failed to support U.S. operations in the war with Iran, including suspending Spain from the alliance and reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands,” Reuters reported. It based the information on what it was told by a U.S. official.

“The policy options are detailed in a note expressing frustration at some allies’ perceived reluctance or refusal to grant the United States access, basing and overflight rights – known as ABO – for the Iran war,” the news outlet added, citing the anonymous official.

However, an alliance official told us that “NATO’s Founding Treaty does not foresee any provision for suspension of NATO membership, or expulsion.”

While Trump and CENTCOM say Iran’s ability to produce weapons has been destroyed during Epic Fury, Tehran says otherwise.

Iran’s Defense Ministry says “the Islamic Republic will continue producing military equipment and that it is fully prepared to meet the armed forces’ needs in all scenarios, including war and peacetime conditions,” Iran’s official Press TV news outlet claimed on X.

Iran’s Defense Ministry says the Islamic Republic will continue producing military equipment and that it is fully prepared to meet the armed forces’ needs in all scenarios, including war and peacetime conditions.

Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTSA3Q pic.twitter.com/yoKrUMFDlt

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 24, 2026

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry (MoD) said two northern border centers were struck by fiber-optic guided drones launched from Iraq.

The attack caused material damage, but no casualties, said MoD spokesman Colonel Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi.F

بيان رقم (60)
صادر عن المتحدث الرسمي لوزارة الدفاع
العقيد الركن سعود عبدالعزيز العطوان

استهدف صباح اليوم موقعان من المراكز الحدودية البرية الشمالية لدولة الكويت، لهجوم عدواني آثم بواسطة عدد (2) طائرة درون مفخخة، موجّهة بسلك الألياف الضوئية، قادمة من جمهورية العراق، ما أسفر عن… pic.twitter.com/UwRQCxGqgv

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) April 24, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Caracas, April 24, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez hosted Colombian President Gustavo Petro for bilateral talks in Caracas on Friday. 

The meeting marked the first official visit by a head of state since the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro during a US military operation on January 3.

Following talks at Miraflores Presidential Palace, Rodríguez said both governments committed to tackling organized crime along their shared border, one of the longest in the region at over 2,200 kilometers.

“We have undertaken a very serious and concrete approach to combating criminal groups and transnational crime,” she said, announcing the development of joint military plans and “immediate” mechanisms for intelligence sharing in a new level of security cooperation.

Petro, for his part, stated that both countries would work toward the “liberation of border communities” through coordinated military, police, and social action.

“Building a fully coordinated common effort to free border populations from mafias engaged in various illegal economies,” he said, accusing irregular groups of human trafficking, drug trafficking, and illegal gold trade activities.

The leaders also agreed on economic initiatives aimed at supporting Venezuelan and Colombian populations in border regions. Petro expressed hope that these efforts would help reintegrate the two territories and boost food security.

The joint action commitments come amid escalating violence in the Catatumbo region of Colombia’s Norte de Santander department, which borders Venezuela’s Táchira state, where clashes between armed groups have displaced thousands in recent weeks.

Armed organizations operating in the area include the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Estado Mayor Central (EMC) and the Segunda Marquetalia, both descendants of the former FARC, and the Clan del Golfo, among others.

Friday’s talks also included the neighboring nations’ trade relations. Rodríguez highlighted discussions on “import substitution” between the two countries.

“It makes no sense for Colombia or Venezuela to look to other regions or hemispheres for what we can produce within our own territories,” she said, noting that bilateral trade currently stands at approximately $1.2 billion per year.

The leaders further addressed electrical interconnection projects for western Venezuela, a region heavily affected by blackouts, as well as reopening a pipeline that would allow Venezuela to export natural gas to Colombia and beyond.

Rodríguez and Petro also discussed the revival of air connectivity to boost tourism, including the development of multi-destination travel initiatives.

Present at the private meeting were Colombia’s foreign minister Rosa Villavicencio and defense minister Pedro Sánchez, alongside Venezuela’s foreign minister Yván Gil and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello. The presidential summit followed an earlier meeting of the two countries’ Neighborhood and Integration Commission, with bilateral working groups established for a number of areas, including trade, energy and defense. 

A prior meeting scheduled between Rodríguez and Petro on the border in early March was suspended due to security concerns.

Rodríguez hosts new US chargé d’affaires

Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez also welcomed the Trump administration’s new chargé d’affaires to Venezuela John Barrett at the presidential palace on Friday.

Alongside Cabello and Gil, Rodríguez held a private meeting that reportedly focused on energy and a “long-term cooperation agenda.” For its part, the US embassy in Caracas stated that Barrett will continue implementing Washington’s “three-phase plan” for the Caribbean nation.

Barrett recently replaced Laura Dogu, who had been on the post since January. A career diplomat, he last served as chargé d’affaires in Guatemala, where he was accused of interference in magistrate elections in March.

Washington and Caracas fast-tracked a diplomatic rapprochement following the January 3 military strikes and kidnapping of Maduro. In March, the White House recognized Rodríguez as Venezuela’s sole leader, while the acting president recently thanked Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their “good disposition” in establishing “cooperation” between the two countries.

The diplomatic reengagement and US recognition have likewise led to a resumption of ties between Caracas and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Edited and with additional reporting by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

Tech firm suspended mass shooter’s ChatGPT account before attacks, but did not inform law enforcement.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has apologised over his company’s failure to warn authorities about the concerning online activities of a teen who went on to commit one of Canada’s worst mass shootings.

Jesse Van Rootselaar, 18, went on a shooting spree in Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, on February 10, killing eight people.

The victims included Rootselaar’s mother and half-brother, and five students at the remote community’s secondary school.

Rootselaar, who was born male but identified as female, died of a self-inflicted gunshot wound.

OpenAI said after the attacks that Rootselaar’s ChatGPT account had been flagged internally the previous June for misuse “in furtherance of violent activities”, resulting in its suspension.

The San Francisco-based AI company said at the time that it had not informed authorities, as Rootselaar’s usage of the chatbot had not met the threshold of posing a credible or imminent threat of harm to others.

In a letter shared on Friday by the Tumbler RidgeLines news site and British Columbia Premier David Eby, Altman acknowledged that OpenAI should have alerted law enforcement to Rootselaar’s suspension.

“I am deeply sorry that we did not alert law enforcement to the account that was banned in June. While I know words can never be enough, I believe an apology is necessary to recognize the harm and irreversible loss your community has suffered,” Altman wrote.

“I reaffirm the commitment I made to the Mayor and the Premier to find ways to prevent tragedies like this in the future,” Altman added.

“Going forward, our focus will continue to be on working with all levels of government to help ensure something like this never happens again.”

Altman’s statement of regret came after Eby said last month that the tech CEO had agreed to apologise to the Tumbler Ridge community over OpenAI’s failure to flag Rootselaar as a threat.

In his letter, Altman said Eby and Tumbler Ridge Mayor Darryl Krakowka had conveyed “the anger, sadness, and concern” being felt in the community in their discussions.

“We agreed a public apology was necessary, but that time was also needed to respect the community as you grieved. I share this letter with the understanding that everyone grieves in their own way and in their own time,” Altman wrote.

“I want to express my deepest condolences to the entire community. No one should ever have to endure a tragedy like this. I cannot imagine anything worse in this world than losing a child.”

Hamas says the Israeli escalation represents the failure of the international community to uphold the truce in Gaza.

Israeli forces have killed 12 Palestinians in attacks throughout Gaza, medical sources in the enclave tell Al Jazeera, as Israel continues its daily violations of the ceasefire struck last year.

An Israeli attack on a police vehicle on Friday killed at least eight people, including three civilian bystanders, in Khan Younis. A separate attack in Gaza City also killed two police officers.

Two other people were killed in the bombing of a house in Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza.

Gaza’s Ministry of Interior called on the international community on Friday to intervene and end the Israeli targeting of local police forces working to restore security in civilian areas.

It said the attack in Khan Younis came after security forces intervened to break up a fight in the area.

“The continued silence of international organisations … regarding the targeting of civilian police officers constitutes complicity with the Israeli occupation, encouraging it to commit further crimes against a civilian institution protected under international law,” the ministry said.

“We emphasise that the police force provides services to citizens in the Gaza Strip across various aspects of daily life. There is absolutely no justification for targeting it or killing its personnel.”

Israel has been systemically killing police officers in Gaza, as it allies itself with criminal gangs in the occupied territory.

During its genocidal war on Gaza, which started in October 2023, the Israeli military regularly targeted officers securing aid convoys, which led to intensified looting. That, in turn, deepened the hunger crisis that Israel imposed on the territory.

A ceasefire, brokered by United States President Donald Trump, came into effect in October of last year. That decreased the intensity of the Israeli bombardment.

But Israel has nevertheless continued its attacks on the territory, killing at least 984 people and injuring 2,235 others since the truce was announced, according to health authorities.

Just this week, Israeli strikes killed five people, including three children, on Wednesday.

The overall death toll in the war has surpassed 72,500, with more than 172,000 others injured. Thousands of missing people are believed to be dead and buried under the destroyed buildings.

The number of confirmed casualties represents more than 7 percent of the enclave’s population of two million people. The Israeli assault also turned most of Gaza’s structures into piles of rubble.

Leading rights groups and United Nations investigators have concluded that the Israeli military campaign amounts to genocide: an effort to destroy the Palestinian people.

Under the far-right government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel has continued to bomb Gaza as it simultaneously attacks south Lebanon, in violation of a separate truce with Hezbollah.

Hamas on Friday called the deadly attacks in Gaza part of the Israeli government’s “unprecedented bloody, fascist approach”.

“This escalation … by the government of the war criminal Netanyahu represents a clear failure of the role of the mediators and guarantors [of the ceasefire] and the international community to quell the barbaric Zionist killing machine,” it said.

More than six months into the ceasefire, Trump has struggled to implement the 12-point plan on which the truce was based.

Israel continues to occupy most of Gaza. Reconstruction in the territory has not begun. An international security force envisioned by the agreement has not been formed.

In February, Trump convened his so-called Board of Peace that is supposed to govern Gaza through a council of Palestinian technocrats, but it is not clear when or how these forces will take over government agencies in the territory.

While the US president is a self-avowed fan of the royals, he regularly criticises the UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, and dismissed UK aircraft carriers as “toys” compared with US equivalents. The King is, of course, the head of the British Armed Forces. And the political relations between the US and the UK, and other Nato allies, are at a perilously low ebb.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

Airmen from the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing sit inside of a bunker during a base-wide exercise at an undisclosed location within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, May 24, 2024. The exercise assessed the responsiveness of Airmen and first responders during a simulated attack. (U.S. Air Force photo) 

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad, but Tehran yet to commit to more talks with US delegation.

United States President Donald Trump is sending envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan as Iran’s foreign minister arrived in the country, raising hopes of new talks on ending the US-Israeli war on Iran amid a fragile ceasefire and growing tensions over control of the Hormuz Strait.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Friday that US envoys would sit down with Abbas Araghchi, expressing hope that parties would “move the ball forward to a deal”, but it remained unclear whether the Iranian delegation had agreed to hold talks.

Writing on X on Friday, Iran’s top diplomat had said he was off on a “timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat, and Moscow”, to coordinate on “bilateral matters”, with no specific mention of any intention to meet with US negotiators.

Trump expressed optimism over a potential deal, telling the news agency Reuters that Iran was “making an offer” aimed at satisfying US demands, which include ending its nuclear programme.

Earlier, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran had a chance to make a “good deal”. “Iran knows that they still have an open window to choose wisely … at the negotiating table,” he said, adding that all they had to do was “abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways”.

But two Pakistani government sources told Reuters that the Iranian foreign minister’s visit would be brief, focusing on Iran’s proposals for talks with the US, which mediator Pakistan would then convey to Washington.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem said a “senior official” had “made it clear” to him that there would not be any US-Iran talks in Pakistan.

“These regional partners all have their own ideas on how to solve this deadlock, but for the moment, Iran has said it would not meet for a new round of talks,” he said.

Top negotiators from last round absent

Reports on Araghchi’s trip in Iranian state media made no mention of Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, who was the head of its delegation at talks with a US delegation earlier this month that ended with no breakthrough.

The Iranian parliament’s media office denied a report that Ghalibaf had resigned as head of Iran’s negotiating team, adding that there was no new round of talks scheduled yet, according to Reuters.

US Vice President JD Vance also participated in the first round of talks, but is not travelling to Pakistan on this occasion, though Leavitt said he remained “deeply involved” and was on “standby” to join if needed.

She said Trump decided to send Witkoff and Kushner to Pakistan “to hear the Iranians out”. “We’ve certainly seen some progress from the Iranian side in the last couple of days,” she maintained, without offering any further details.

Reporting from Washington, Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna said there appeared to be a “graded process” in place, describing it as “an initial exploratory phase” that could lead to “higher-level engagement if negotiations deepen”.

A new round of talks had been expected to start on Tuesday but did not materialise, with Iran saying it was not yet ready to commit to attending.

Trump had unilaterally extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday to allow more time to reconvene the negotiators as the US continued its blockade on Iranian ports.

Iran says it will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime trade chokepoint, until Trump lifts his blockade. On Friday, the US applied more pressure on Tehran by freezing $344m in cryptocurrency assets in a bid to “systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds”.

Judge had previously blocked move to end temporary legal status for those who entered US via Biden-era application.

The administration of President Donald Trump plans to again end the temporary legal status of hundreds of thousands of people who applied for asylum in the United States via the CBP One app.

The plan was detailed in a court filing in Boston, Massachusetts, and comes after a judge ruled that Trump’s earlier effort to terminate the legal status of those individuals was unlawful.

Under US President Joe Biden, individuals who registered for an appointment with US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) were preliminarily vetted and granted temporary legal status in the US as their asylum cases were adjudicated.

About 900,000 people were granted so-called humanitarian parole under the programme.

But in April of last year, just months after Trump took office for a second term, many of those individuals received emails saying their status had been terminated.

The message told its recipients it was “time for you to leave the United States”.

Federal Judge Allison Burroughs subsequently ruled that the Department of Homeland Security did not follow the proper procedures in terminating the legal status immigration status of CBP One users.

The US Department of Justice, in the new filings, told Burroughs that the Trump administration was complying with ⁠her order.

However, the department said the administration would begin issuing new parole termination notices, pursuant to a Tuesday memo from CBP’s head, Rodney Scott.

The memo is not public, but according to the Justice Department, Scott provided ‌an explanation for why, in his opinion, “parole is no longer appropriate for those aliens”.

Lawyers for Democracy Forward and Massachusetts Law Reform Institute, which represent the individuals whose status faces termination, urged Burroughs in a subsequent filing to prevent what they called a “deliberate attempt to evade compliance with the court’s order”.

The next hearing was set for May 6.

During his second term, Trump has pursued a hardline immigration policy that has included staunching nearly all asylum claims at the southern border.

Shortly after taking office, Trump’s officials also dissolved the CBP One app and relaunched it as CBP Home, a tool for self-deportation.

His administration has claimed there was an “invasion” at the border that constituted a “national emergency”, thereby allowing Trump to bypass legal requirements to allow individuals seeking asylum into the country.

Asylum, however, is a right enshrined both in domestic and international law, to protect people fleeing persecution on the basis of race, religion, nationality, political opinion or membership in a particular social group.

Separately, on Friday, a federal appeals court ruled against the Trump administration’s ban on asylum at the southern US border, potentially clearing the way for applications to once again be processed.

The administration is expected to appeal the decision.

Judges say Trump’s order for swift removal at the border ‘cast aside federal laws affording’ right to seek asylum.

An appeals court has ruled that President Donald Trump’s ban on asylum applications in the United States is unlawful, dealing a setback to the administration’s immigration crackdown.

In a decision released on Friday, a three-judge panel from the US Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, found that existing laws — namely the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) — give people the right to apply for asylum at the border.

Trump had issued the asylum ban in a proclamation on January 20, 2025, on the first day of his second term.

But the appeals court questioned whether suspending asylum unilaterally was within the president’s power.

“Congress did not intend to grant the Executive the expansive removal authority it asserts,” the ruling said.

“The Proclamation and Guidance are thus unlawful to the extent that they circumvent the INA’s removal procedures and cast aside federal laws affording individuals the right to apply and be considered for asylum or withholding of removal protections.”

The decision validated a ruling by a lower court. While the judges blocked Trump’s order, it is unclear what its immediate impact will be. Already, the White House has signalled it plans to appeal.

Trump made immigration a major pillar of his 2024 re-election campaign, pledging to repel what he describes as an “invasion” of migrants by shutting down the southern border of the US.

Asylum in the US can be granted to people facing “persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group”. Such protections have been recognised as a fundamental human right under international law.

But unauthorised border crossings reached record levels during the administration of President Joe Biden, which had itself imposed asylum restrictions.

Millions of migrants — many suffering from gang violence and political persecution in Central and South America — have claimed asylum upon reaching the US.

Nearly 945,000 filed for asylum in 2023, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

In his January 2025 decree, Trump suspended “the physical entry of aliens involved in an invasion into the United States across the southern border”.

The proclamation was quickly challenged in court, as other measures in Trump’s immigration crackdown have been.

But the appeals court panel concluded that the INA does not authorise the president to remove the plaintiffs under “procedures of his own making”.

Nor does it allow him to suspend the plaintiffs’ right to apply for asylum or curtail procedures for adjudicating claims of torture and persecution.

“The power by proclamation to temporarily suspend the entry of specified foreign individuals into the United States does not contain implicit authority to override the INA’s mandatory process to summarily remove foreign individuals,” wrote Judge J Michelle Childs, a Biden appointee.

The Trump administration will likely appeal the ruling to the full appellate court and subsequently to the Supreme Court.

The White House stressed after the court’s decision that banning asylum is part of Trump’s constitutional powers as commander-in-chief.

“We have liberal judges across the country who are acting against this president for political purposes. They are not acting as true litigators of the law. They are looking at these cases from a political lens,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters.

The announcement on Friday is expected to clear the path for the confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh.

The United States Department of Justice has ended its probe into US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, clearing a major roadblock to the confirmation of his successor, Kevin Warsh.

US Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeannine Pirro said on X on Friday that her office was ending its probe into the Fed’s extensive building renovations because the Fed’s inspector general would scrutinise them instead.

Pirro, a Trump ally and the top federal prosecutor in Washington, DC, said she had instead asked the Fed’s internal watchdog, the Office of Inspector General, to examine cost overruns in renovations of the central bank’s Washington headquarters.

“The IG has the authority to hold the Federal Reserve accountable to American taxpayers,” Pirro said in a social media post. “I expect a comprehensive report in short order and am confident the outcome will assist in resolving, once and for all, the questions that led this office to issue subpoenas.”

The move could lead to a swift confirmation vote by the Senate for Warsh, a former top Fed official whom US President Donald Trump, a Republican, nominated in January to replace Powell. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15.

Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, had said he would oppose Warsh until the investigation was resolved, effectively blocking his confirmation.

The leadership transition at the world’s leading central bank could now proceed quickly.

Republicans praised Warsh during a Tuesday hearing even as Democrats questioned his independence from Trump, the lack of transparency around some of his financial holdings, and what they said was his flip-flopping on interest rates. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the committee, questioned if Warsh will be a “sock puppet“.

Still, Trump’s previous appointment to the Fed’s board of governors, Stephen Miran, was approved by the full Senate just 13 days after his nomination.

No evidence

The investigation was among several undertaken by the Department of Justice into Trump’s perceived adversaries. For months, it had failed to gain traction as prosecutors struggled to articulate a basis to suspect criminal conduct.

A prosecutor handling the case conceded at a closed-door court hearing in March that the government had not yet found any evidence of a crime, and a judge subsequently quashed subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve.

The judge, James Boasberg, said prosecutors had produced “essentially zero evidence” to suspect Powell of a crime. Boasberg branded prosecutors’ justification for the subpoenas as “thin and unsubstantiated”.

More recently, prosecutors made an unannounced visit to a construction site at the Fed’s headquarters but were turned away, drawing a rebuke from a defence lawyer in the case who called the manoeuvre “not appropriate”.

Warsh said during the Senate hearing on Tuesday that he never promised the White House that he would cut interest rates, even as the president renewed his calls for the central bank to do so.

“The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, period,” Warsh said during the hearing. “Nor would I ever agree to do so if he had … I will be an independent actor if confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve.”

Warsh’s comments came just hours after Trump, in an interview on CNBC, was asked if he would be disappointed if Warsh did not immediately cut rates and responded, “I would.”

The decision to abandon the investigation represents a rare pullback for a Department of Justice that over the last year has moved aggressively, albeit unsuccessfully, to prosecute public figures the president does not like.

Robert Hur, an lawyer for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, did not immediately respond on Friday to an email seeking comment.

On April 20, the United States fired at and then seized an Iranian-flagged container ship close to the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Arabian Sea, amid its blockade of Iranian ports.

It was similar to a scene which played out in the 1980s during the so-called Tanker War between Iran and Iraq, during which both countries fired on each other’s tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to cripple each other’s economies.

As naval tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz – this time between Iran and the US – we break down what happened in the 1980s and examine the parallels and differences between the situations then and now:

How the 1980s Tanker War played out – a timeline

The war between Iran and Iraq began in 1980 when then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein launched a full-scale invasion of Iran following Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution.

In 1984, this war reached the Gulf when Iraq attacked Iranian oil tankers, seeking to cripple its oil-revenue-dependent economy. Iran retaliated by firing at oil tankers belonging to Iraq and its allies in the Gulf.

According to a report by the University of Texas’s Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law, Iran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz then, but did not do so since its own economy, already crippled by the war, was dependent on exporting oil to the rest of the world through it.

In November 1986, when Iran struck Kuwait’s ships, Kuwait asked for foreign help. The former Soviet Union was the first to respond and helped escort the nation’s ships in the Gulf.

The US, led by then-president Ronald Reagan, launched Operation Earnest Will in July 1987, also seeking to protect tankers in the Gulf and render more assistance than Moscow. The operation involved reflagging Kuwaiti tankers with the US flag so they could legally sail under US protection.

According to an article by the Veterans Breakfast Club, a US-based website which shares experiences of former US military veterans, during Washington’s very first escort mission in July 1987, a reflagged tanker hit an Iranian mine in the Gulf.

“The convoy continued, but the incident made clear that the United States had entered a shadow war with Iran at sea,” the article said.

“Over the next fourteen months, dozens of US warships rotated through the region escorting tankers and protecting shipping lanes. US forces also conducted special operations to hunt Iranian mine-layers at night and conducted strikes against Iranian military positions and ships. The mission wasn’t a small one, consuming 30 US Navy ships at one time,” the article added.

Then in April 1988, the US frigate USS Samuel B Roberts was damaged by an Iranian mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Historian Samuel Cox, writing for the US Naval History and Heritage Command (NHHC), noted in 2018 that by the end of 1987 that vessel was so badly damaged, that “the only thing actually holding the ship together was the main deck”.

So, the US launched Operation Praying Mantis, seeking to destroy Iranian vessels.

The tanker war eventually ended in August 1988, following a United Nations-brokered ceasefire agreement between Iran and Iraq.

Cox noted that by the end of 1987, “Iraq had conducted 283 attacks on shipping, while Iran attacked 168 times. Combined, the attacks had killed 116 merchant sailors, with 37 missing and 167 wounded, from a wide variety of nationalities.”

“Initially, there was great concern that the attacks would cut off the vital flow of oil from the Arabian Gulf, but all they really did was drive up insurance rates. The world’s need for oil was so great, that over 100 dead merchant seamen was apparently an acceptable price,” he wrote.

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz now?

The current hostilities between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz began when Tehran, whose territorial waters extend into the strait, closed passage to all vessels after the US and Israel began bombing the country. On March 4, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared that it was in full control of the strait, and ships would need to get clearance from them to pass through it.

Shipping through the strait collapsed by 95 percent, sending the price of oil – 20 percent of global supplies of which are shipped this way – soaring above $100 a barrel.

Iran, through its imposition of control over who passes through Hormuz, has for almost eight weeks now, determined which vessels can exit the strait from the Gulf into the Gulf of Oman.

At first, Iran indicated that it would allow “friendly” ships to pass if they paid a toll. On March 26, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iran’s state TV: “The Strait of Hormuz, from our perspective, is not completely closed. It is closed only to enemies. There is no reason to allow the ships of our enemies and their allies to pass.”

Vessels from Malaysia, China, Egypt, South Korea, India and Pakistan passed through the strait through most of March and early April.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) provided these vessels with an alternative route through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid potential sea mines. US officials, including Donald Trump, have said mines have been placed there by Iran, although it has not officially confirmed or denied this.

But on April 13, alarmed that Iran was continuing to ship its own oil out of the strait, the US imposed a naval blockade of all Iranian ports. Since then, US Central Command has said US forces have directed 33 Iran-linked vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port.

On Monday, the US military fired on and then captured the Iranian-flagged container ship Touska close to the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Arabian Sea, and, a day later, detained another oil tanker sanctioned for transporting Iranian crude oil as it sailed in the Bay of Bengal, which links India and Southeast Asia.

In a post on social media after detaining the Touska, the Pentagon wrote: “As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran – anywhere they operate.
International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels.”

Since the US naval blockade of Iranian ports began, Tehran, which was earlier allowing vessels from “friendly” nations to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, has further tightened its grip on the strait.

Justifying the decision not to allow any foreign ships to pass until the US ends its naval blockade on April 19, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the “security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free”.

“One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others,” he wrote in a post on X.

Last Saturday, Iran reportedly fired at two Indian-flagged merchant vessels in the strait. The IRGC said the two ships were attacked because they were “operating without authorisation”, according to state media reports.

Then, on April 22, Iran captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz after firing on them and another vessel.

What are the parallels between the two wars?

Just like during the Tanker War of the 1980s, shipping has been severely disrupted by the US-Israel war on Iran, upending global oil and gas prices.

According to an April 17 article by the World Economic Forum, from the mid-1980s when the Tanker War took place, to the start of the new millennium, a barrel of crude oil averaged $20.

On Friday, while a ceasefire between the US and Iran was in effect, a naval battle was still playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, topped $106 per barrel. During open warfare between the US, Israel and Iran in March and early April, oil rose as high as $119 per barrel.

Mines in the sea are another problem common to both time periods.

While vessels were damaged by mines during the 1980s Tanker War, there has so far been no report of vessels being damaged by mines in the current war. However, the risk is the same.

US President Donald Trump has said the US will ramp up efforts to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz. This has not begun yet, however.

According to CNN, there are only a few US minesweeping ships in the Gulf. The US Navy also told the broadcaster that four dedicated minesweepers stationed in the Gulf region were decommissioned last year.

John Phillips, a British safety, security and risk adviser and former military instructor, told Al Jazeera: “There are some clear parallels between the current situation in Hormuz and the Tanker War of the 1980s. In both cases, the basic idea is the same: pressure at sea can have effects far beyond the water itself.

“A relatively small amount of naval disruption, whether that means mining, harassment of shipping, missile threats, or attacks on tankers, can create real strategic and economic consequences, especially in a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz. So in that sense, the original Tanker War is a useful reminder of how vulnerable global trade can be when the maritime domain becomes part of a wider political or military confrontation.”

What are the differences between the two wars?

During the Tanker War, the US escorted ships to protect them from Iranian attacks and also deployed vessels to remove mines. NATO countries like the United Kingdom, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy also joined.

But in the current standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, US allies like the UK and other NATO nations have refused to join Washington in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or begin minesweeping operations, fearing they will be dragged into the war.

In a post on Truth Social in early April, the US president took aim at allies, “like the United Kingdom”, which, he said, have “refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran”, telling them to either buy US fuel or get involved in the rapidly escalating war.

“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” Trump wrote.

The framework of the US-Israel war on Iran is different from that of the war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980s, experts say.

“In the 1980s, the Tanker War was part of the broader Iran-Iraq War, so the shipping attacks were tied to a much larger land conflict between two regional armies. Today, the situation is more about Iran’s standoff with the United States and its allies, and the maritime activity is less about asymmetrical war at sea and more about deterrence, signalling and the threat of escalation,” said Phillips.

“The military lesson, really, is that Hormuz is still one of those places where limited actions can have outsized effects, but the modern setting is more fast-moving, more technologically advanced and potentially more volatile than the original Tanker War,” he added.

Analysts have also pointed out that, unlike in the 1980s, Iran is currently stronger when it comes to withstanding attacks and naval blockades by the US.

In the Tanker War, Iraq was militarily supported by Western allies, while Iran was under a US arms embargo imposed in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. While this gave Iraq a military advantage, Iran’s IRGC used asymmetric warfare tactics by striking Iraq’s allies’ ships and oil tankers.

Experts also say that since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel last year, Tehran has shifted its military doctrine from one that is primarily about defensive containment to an explicitly offensive asymmetric posture.

“Iran today appears more structurally aggressive in doctrine where it is formally embracing earlier and more extensive use of regional missiles, drones, cyberattacks and energy coercion [when energy resources and infrastructure are targeted or cut off], but is operationally constrained by battle damage, sanctions and internal instability,” Phillips, the risk adviser and a former military chief instructor, told Al Jazeera in an interview on March 2.

A former US ambassador to Bahrain, Adam Ereli, also told Al Jazeera that Iran and the IRGC have “revolutionary fervour”, which means they can “survive”.

“They can tolerate pain for a lot longer than I think most American decision-makers and planners calculate,” he said.

Prestianni suspended ​for homophobic discriminatory conduct in Champions League match ‌against ​Real Madrid in February.

Benfica’s ‌Gianluca Prestianni has been handed a six-match suspension for discriminatory conduct ⁠that was deemed ⁠homophobic in a Champions League match against Real Madrid, UEFA announced.

Prestianni will be banned for two ⁠more matches after UEFA said on Friday that a further three-match suspension would be “subject to a probationary period of two years, starting from the date ⁠of the present decision”. He has already served a one-match provisional suspension.

The Argentinian winger was accused of directing a racist slur at Real Madrid forward Vinicius Jr during the Spanish side’s 1-0 Champions League playoff first-leg win ‌in February.

The first leg was suspended for 11 minutes shortly after Vinicius gave Real the lead early in the second half.

Television footage showed Prestianni covering his mouth with his shirt repeatedly before making comments that Vinicius and nearby teammates interpreted as a racial slur against the 25-year-old.

Prestianni had denied the accusation that he had made ⁠a racist comment, saying Vinicius had misheard him. Real’s ⁠Aurelien Tchouameni said the Argentinian told him he did not call Vinicius a “monkey” but directed a homophobic comment at him.

UEFA also said they would request FIFA to extend the ⁠suspension worldwide.

The suspension includes the one-match provisional suspension Prestianni served during the second leg of ⁠their knockout playoff on February 25, which ⁠Real Madrid won 2-1 to advance.

Benfica said they had been notified about the sanction imposed on Prestianni.

“Of the three-match effective ban, one has already been served and the remaining two ‌must be served in UEFA matches or Argentina national team matches in a FIFA context,” Benfica said.

Prestianni has played for Argentina only once, ‌making ‌his debut as a late substitute in a friendly game against Angola in November.

A United States mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has come under strain after Hezbollah dismissed the agreement as ineffective. The truce, which took effect on April 16, was recently extended by three weeks following talks hosted by Donald Trump at the White House with Israeli and Lebanese representatives.

The ceasefire was intended to reduce hostilities that reignited on March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks in support of Iran amid a broader regional conflict. While the agreement led to a noticeable drop in violence, clashes have not fully stopped. Israeli forces have continued operations in southern Lebanon, maintaining a self declared buffer zone, while Hezbollah has accused Israel of carrying out strikes, assassinations, and destruction of towns.

Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad stated that the continued attacks render the ceasefire meaningless and reaffirmed the group’s position that it reserves the right to respond to any Israeli action.

Why it matters
The fragile ceasefire highlights the difficulty of de escalating conflicts in the Middle East, especially when multiple fronts and actors are involved. Continued violations risk collapsing the agreement entirely, which could lead to a wider confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.

The situation is further complicated by its connection to broader regional tensions involving Iran, making the ceasefire not just a bilateral issue but part of a larger geopolitical struggle. A breakdown could escalate into a more sustained and destructive conflict along the Lebanon Israel border.

Stakeholders
Hezbollah remains a central actor, positioning itself as a resistance force while balancing domestic and regional pressures. Israel is focused on security concerns and maintaining its buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

The United States is playing a mediating role, attempting to prevent escalation and maintain stability. Iran, as a key ally of Hezbollah, continues to influence the group’s strategic decisions and has pushed for Lebanon to be included in wider ceasefire discussions.

The Lebanese government is also a stakeholder, as continued conflict threatens its sovereignty, infrastructure, and already fragile economy.

What’s next
The extended ceasefire will be tested in the coming weeks as both sides continue limited engagements. If violations persist, the agreement could unravel, leading to intensified clashes.

Diplomatic efforts led by Washington may continue, but their success will depend on whether both Israel and Hezbollah show restraint on the ground. Without a broader regional understanding that includes Iran, the chances of a lasting ceasefire remain uncertain.

With information from Reuters.

United States President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is “collapsing financially” and said the country is losing millions of dollars a day due to Washington’s naval blockade of Iranian ports.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately – Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”

The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 14:00 GMT on April 13. Since then, the US has fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, and redirected ships in the open seas carrying cargo to or from Iran. Iran’s armed forces have called this “an illegal act” that “amounts to piracy”.

In response to the US naval blockade, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to all foreign shipping and has captured several foreign-flagged ships. Previously, it had allowed some ships deemed “friendly” to Iran to pass.

On April 19, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the “security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free”.

“One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others,” he wrote in a post on X.

“The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone,” he added. “Stability in global fuel prices depends on a guaranteed and lasting end to the economic and military pressure against Iran and its allies.”

In a statement on social media on Thursday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator in the ceasefire talks, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said a full ceasefire could only work if the US naval blockade is lifted.

Analysts say the blockade is hurting Iran but believe the country has the economic and political will to sustain it.

How long can Iran survive the naval blockade?

Here’s what we know:

How is the naval blockade hurting Iran?

Iran exports oil, gas and other goods including petrochemicals, plastics and agricultural products by sea. Analysts say the US naval blockade of its ports, including in the Strait of Hormuz, could therefore affect this trade.

Soon after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, authorities in Tehran implemented the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the only waterway out of the Gulf, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped from Gulf producers in peacetime.

The near-shutdown of the vital chokepoint sent global oil and gas prices soaring, and since then, Iran has controlled the strait. However, it has continued to export its own energy products through the waterway.

Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 80 percent of its total oil exports. According to Kpler, a trade intelligence firm, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March and has shipped 1.71 million bpd so far in April, compared with an average of 1.68 million bpd in 2025.

From March 15 to April 14, it exported 55.22 million barrels of oil. The price per barrel of Iranian oil – across its three major variants, known as Iranian light, Iranian heavy and Forozan blend – has not fallen below $90 per barrel over the past month. On many days, the price has surpassed $100 a barrel.

Even at the conservative estimate of $90 a barrel, Iran has earned at least $4.97bn over the past month from its ongoing oil exports.

By contrast, in early February before the war started, Iran was earning about $115m a day from its crude oil exports, or $3.45bn in a month.

Simply put, Iran has earned 40 percent more from oil exports in the past month than it did before the war.

Stopping this is a key motivation behind the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on April 14, Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera that the previous six weeks had been a boon for Iran in terms of oil revenues, but with the US blockade, that will change.

“Iran has some buffer in the form of crude oil reserves in floating tanks – basically parked tankers – which was estimated at about 127 million barrels in February. But that doesn’t mean that the blockade wouldn’t hurt Iran,” he said.

On Friday, Schneider told Al Jazeera that Iran, however, seems to be “playing the longer game” and has anticipated and prepared for this sort of conflict to some degree.

“The naval blockade has added economic strain, as several civilian ships have been captured in international waters. But it remains unclear how tight the blockade is, how many ships manage to pass given the considerable amount of floating Iranian oil, and how long Trump can maintain the blockade,” he said.

Can the US keep the blockade going for long?

Schneider noted that Trump will face a legislative challenge by May 1, when the 60 days he can maintain a foreign offensive without congressional approval come to an end.

Dire conditions have been reported on the ships that are upholding the blockade, he said, and it remains to be seen how China will react to the continuing seizure of ships that carry any of its cargo.

“China has already said it sees the blockade of Chinese trade with Iran as unacceptable. Further, the closure of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation is hurting, if not the US itself that much, American allies in the region and globally, raising the pressure on Trump,” he said.

“If we can glean anything from the behaviour of the two sides, it is Iran that is signalling patience and Trump showing impatience,” he added.

Adam Ereli, a former US ambassador to Bahrain, told Al Jazeera’s This is America programme that while the US blockade of Iranian ports and seizure of vessels transporting Iranian oil “makes sense” as a policy, it may not work as intended due to domestic political considerations in the US.

“The Iranians have prepared for this, for this eventuality. They have their own plans. They’ve got alternative means of storing their oil or selling their oil,” Ereli told Al Jazeera.

“Even if they ran out of oil, they have ways to survive a very tough blockade and sanctions regime that, frankly, I think will outlast Trump’s patience and the patience of the American people,” he said.

“Remember, this isn’t just about moving soldiers and ships and planes around on a map. There’s politics involved here in the United States,” he added.

“Trump is nothing if not attuned to the political winds. And for that reason, I think that you’ve got this Iran strategy on the one hand that runs up against an electoral strategy on another hand, and therefore, the question is, which one is going to give?”

Can Iran store the oil the US is blockading in the meantime?

Iran’s domestic refineries have a capacity of 2.6 million bpd, according to consultancy FGE Energy. Its oil and gas production facilities are concentrated in southwestern provinces: Khuzestan for oil and Bushehr for gas and condensate from the South Pars gasfield.

Iran is also the third-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and exports 90 percent of its crude oil via Kharg Island for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US naval blockade has begun affecting the country’s storage capacity, according to TankerTrackers, the maritime intelligence agency. The blockade means Iran has to store more oil, and space could become tight.

TankerTrackers said that on Kharg Island, to prepare for the possibility of running out of oil storage space, Iran has brought an old tanker named NASHA (9079107) out of retirement.

“She’s a 30yo [year old] VLCC [Very Large Crude Carrier] that’s been anchored empty for the past few years; currently spending 4 days on a trip that should take 1.5-2 days,” TankerTrackers said in a post on X, suggesting that the tanker is being used to store oil. It is unclear if the ship has a heading or course.

Can Iran continue to earn revenues from oil?

Yes, analysts say that for a few months, Iran can continue to earn revenue from oil which is already in transit at sea.

Kenneth Katzman, former Iran analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington, DC, said Iran is not exporting new oil amid the US blockade of Iranian ports, but Tehran has between 160 million and 170 million barrels of oil “afloat” on ships around the world currently.

Those supplies, which transited the Strait of Hormuz before the US blockade was imposed, are on board hundreds of tankers and “waiting to be delivered”, Katzman told Al Jazeera.

Katzman said he had been informed by an Iranian professor that, based on those supplies, Tehran could have revenue flows that can last until August despite the US naval blockade.

“Which is a long time. Does President Trump have until August? Probably not,” he said.

“He’s probably going to have to look at kinetic escalation if he wants to bring this to the conclusion that he wants, or he’s going to have to accept less than the deal he ideally wants,” he said.

Iranian ships will still have to avoid US naval ships on the open ocean, as the US Navy has also recently intercepted ships carrying Iranian cargoes.

On Wednesday this week, for example, the US military intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in ‌Asian waters, Reuters reported, and was said to be redirecting them away from their positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.

How else can Iran earn revenue?

Besides oil revenue, Iran is also currently receiving revenue from a “toll booth” system that the country imposed on the Strait of Hormuz in March.

On Thursday, Iran’s deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji-Babaei said Tehran’s central bank had received the first revenues from tolls imposed since the start of the war, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. It is unclear how much that toll revenue is.

Iranian politician Alaeddin Boroujerdi told the United Kingdom-based, Farsi-language satellite TV channel Iran International in March that the country has been charging some vessels as much as $2m each to pass through the strait.

According to Lloyd’s List, the shipping news outlet, at least two vessels that have transited the strait so far have paid fees in yuan, China’s currency. Lloyd’s List reported that one “transit was brokered by a Chinese maritime services company acting as an intermediary, which also handled the payment to Iranian authorities”. It is, however, not clear how much the vessels paid.

How resilient is Iran’s leadership?

In recent days, while pressuring Iran to negotiate a ceasefire deal, US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iranians are “having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is”, alleging that there is “crazy” infighting between “moderates” and “hardliners” in Tehran.

But the country’s officials have insisted that Iran’s government is united.

Mohammad Reza Aref, Iran’s first vice president, said on Thursday: “Our political diversity is our democracy, yet in times of peril, we are a ‘Single Hand’ under one flag. To protect our soil and dignity, we transcend all labels. We are one soul, one nation.”

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also dismissed allegations that the Iranian military may be at odds with the political leadership.

“The failure of Israel’s terrorist killings is reflected in how Iran’s state institutions continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline,” he wrote on X, referring to the assassinations of Iranian political and military figures Israel has carried out in recent weeks.

“The battlefield and diplomacy are fully coordinated fronts in the same war. Iranians are all united, more than ever before.”

One of the strongest messages of unity came from Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian.

“In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates,” he said on X.

“We are all Iranians and revolutionaries. With ironclad unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret.”

How strong is Iran militarily?

Iran has demonstrated considerable military resilience in the face of weeks of US-Israeli strikes through its use of asymmetric warfare.

This includes the use of guerrilla tactics, cyberattacks, arming and supporting proxy armed groups and other indirect tools.

During its war with the US and Israel, Iran has targeted energy infrastructure in Israel and across the Gulf, threatened to target banking institutions and targeted US data centres of technology companies such as Amazon in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Iran has also blocked the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly placed mines in the strait to disrupt shipping, sending global oil prices soaring.

Since the US began its naval blockade of Iranian ports in mid-April, Iranian officials have repeatedly promised that their country will defend itself and respond to any US attack.

Earlier this week, after the US military said it had seized an Iranian vessel and ordered dozens of others to turn around, Iran also retaliated by capturing foreign commercial vessels around the Hormuz Strait, which it said violated naval regulations.

Ereli, the former US ambassador, told Al Jazeera that Iran and the IRGC have “revolutionary fervour”, which means they can “survive”. “They can tolerate pain for a lot longer than I think most American decision makers and planners calculate,” Ereli said.

Ereli said it was unknown how long Tehran could last under “siege conditions” imposed by the US, but probably a lot longer than the US anticipates.

“I think they can go a lot longer, especially than most people imagine, and especially when it comes to kneeling to the Americans,” Ereli said.

“There’s a level of pride and survival. They’re at war with us, and for them it’s a war of necessity. They’ve got to survive,” he added.

People in the Russian city of Tuapse are worried about the toxic effects of a huge oil refinery fire that’s been burning for days after a Ukrainian drone attack. Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapavalova is there.