NEWS

Sudan’s war is showing signs of a changing dynamic. Sudanese armed forces (SAF) have made a series of gains in North Kordofan state; the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is facing a new wave of defections; and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is opening a political track while insisting the military campaign will continue.

Army advances are putting pressure on RSF supply lines; defections are raising questions about the force’s cohesion; and al-Burhan, who also heads the Transitional Sovereignty Council, is seeking to shape a political process from a position strengthened by developments on the battlefield.

But the wider battlefield remains contested. Together, the military pressure, defections and political outreach point to a potentially important shift: battlefield developments may be starting to affect the political balance.

What has the army gained?

The clearest recent gains have come in North Kordofan, a state in central Sudan that links the capital, Khartoum, with the country’s western regions.

In late July, the army announced that it had retaken Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh and Umm Sayala, along with other positions in the state. Al Jazeera reported that the advances also secured the national Exports Road, a key route linking Khartoum, through Omdurman, with el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan.

The gains do not amount to control of the wider Kordofan region. But they have significance beyond the territory captured.

The army’s control of the Exports Road has strengthened its position in North Kordofan and added pressure on RSF supply lines. Al Jazeera reported on August 21 that the army was continuing efforts to cut those supply lines as fighting expanded across Kordofan, Darfur and the Blue Nile region.

What do the RSF defections mean?

The battlefield pressure has coincided with a marked increase in defections from the RSF.

On August 20, the army announced that about 318 people, including four officers, had joined its ranks, arriving in Northern state in about 50 combat vehicles before moving to Omdurman. Al Jazeera also reported separate groups from Kordofan and Khartoum, including 270 people, among them 21 field commanders, as well as 45 fighters and commanders from the Bara area who surrendered to the army.

The numbers alone do not tell the story. The timing does.

Al Jazeera’s August 21 analysis links the growing defections to several factors, including battlefield developments, internal problems within the RSF, social and tribal dynamics, and pressure created by the army’s advances and efforts to disrupt RSF supply lines. It also notes that the trend does not by itself mean the RSF is collapsing.

If the trend continues, it could become increasingly significant, particularly if more commanders and fighters conclude that the battlefield balance is shifting against the RSF.

For now, the more cautious conclusion is that battlefield pressure may be affecting the RSF’s cohesion without yet amounting to a broader breakdown of the organisation.

Why is al-Burhan opening a political track?

The SAF chief’s political initiative is unfolding alongside these military developments.

On August 15, he announced that the state would provide temporary immunity and legal, political and security guarantees to participants in a national dialogue managed by an independent national mechanism. Criminal proceedings against participants facing charges would be suspended during their involvement in the dialogue, without removing the rights of those who had filed complaints.

Al-Burhan said the initiative came from a group of Sudanese who had approached him with a proposal for dialogue. He said the group would independently manage the process and that the state would not determine its agenda or outcomes. He also said he had begun engaging with national forces that had supported the state and its institutions, with the aim of involving them in completing state institutions, including a legislative council.

But this is not a move away from the war.

Al-Burhan said he would not accept what he called a “peace without substance” that would bring RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, and his supporters to power. He also said the path to peace begins with the RSF leaving cities and being gathered in designated areas.

On August 21, Al Jazeera reported that al-Burhan said the fighting would continue until what he described as the rebellion was ended, while the army was working to cut RSF supply lines. He also rejected a truce that would allow the RSF to reorganise, while saying he remained open to a just peace and national dialogue that excluded the RSF.

Al-Burhan is therefore not choosing between war and politics. He is pursuing both, maintaining military pressure while opening a political process he says should preserve the state and its institutions.

What does Malik Agar’s position reveal?

Malik Agar, deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, has made the government’s position even clearer.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on August 22, Agar said the current option was military resolution unless serious conditions for negotiations emerged. He said the RSF would have to withdraw from cities and residential areas before negotiations could begin, stressing that the government remained open to initiatives that preserve Sudan’s unity and state institutions.

In a separate Al Jazeera interview published on August 23, Agar said the army would win but that the war would ultimately end through negotiations.

He argued that Sudan’s crisis was rooted in deeper problems, including the weakness of the state and the failure of political elites to manage the country’s ethnic, cultural, religious and geographic diversity.

His position reflects the government’s broader calculation: maintain military pressure while leaving the door open to negotiations from a stronger position on the battlefield.

Can al-Burhan turn battlefield pressure into political leverage?

The army’s gains in North Kordofan have strengthened its position along a strategically important route. The growing defections from the RSF are raising questions about the force’s cohesion. At the same time, the RSF remains active on several fronts, and the wider battlefield remains contested.

That combination gives the recent developments significance beyond individual battles or defections. The changing military balance may now be beginning to shape the terms of Sudan’s next political phase.

For al-Burhan, the potential advantage is not simply territorial. If military pressure continues to produce defections and weaken RSF cohesion, it could give the SAF greater room to shape who participates in a political process and the conditions under which future negotiations take place.

For the RSF, the challenge is therefore not only to hold territory. It is to prevent battlefield pressure from becoming an internal crisis of cohesion.

That has not happened yet. Military setbacks do not automatically translate into political marginalisation.

The army’s recent gains are best understood not as evidence of a decisive victory, but as a shift in the conditions under which the next phase of the war may be fought, and eventually negotiated.

Can the RSF contain the defections and preserve its bargaining position, or will continued military pressure give al-Burhan greater leverage in Sudan’s next political phase?

Ukrainian drone attacks on targets deep inside Russia have spurred President Vladimir Putin to allow the government to temporarily seize what it deems commercial critical infrastructure that is not sufficiently protection against such strikes. This follows Russia’s move earlier this year to allow private companies to purchase their own air defense systems to protect their own facilities. Beyond calling for increased defenses, the decree signed by Putin also warns that the government will take over facilities that don’t make needed repairs quickly enough once they have been hit.

These actions come as Russia’s economy is reeling after repeated Ukrainian drone hits on its oil refineries and other energy facilities. A more recent Ukrainian campaign against Russian Amazon-like e-commerce distribution centers has added to the financial woes and growing public frustration.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that “often business owners do not pay enough attention to taking measures to ensure safety, anti-drone safety.”

Given the threat to vital economic infrastructure, “we must take measures, we must ensure our own safety,” he added.

Putin’s decree does not specify what actions these facilities are required to take to provide better protection against Ukrainian drone attacks. As we have written about frequently, due to the demands of the battlefield and repeated Ukrainian attacks across a growing portion of Russia, the Russian military already has a shortage of air defense systems. So it’s not clear how much equipment, and of what capabilities, is even available for private firms to purchase. However, the civilian counter-drone industry in Russia is flourishing. Back in May, Russian authorities authorized private companies “to purchase heavy weaponry to defend industrial facilities against drone attacks,” the RBC news website reported at the time, citing sources linked to the Defense Ministry.

“The new system will allow companies to procure anti-aircraft artillery systems, turrets, radar equipment, specialized vehicles and electronic warfare systems,” the outlet added. “In order to promptly provide newly formed mobile fire groups with everything they need, the relevant decisions were recently adopted at the state level.”

In addition, some refineries have already built metal cages around their facilities to help protect against drone attacks.

Russia Puts Cope Cages on Oil Storage Tanks

The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries and Black Sea ports are having a dramatic effect on the Russian economy.

“In the four weeks through Aug. 23, overseas crude flows fell to 3.46 million barrels a day,” Bloomberg news reported, citing tanker-movements data it compiled. “Shipments had previously risen as the strikes on Russia’s refineries left more crude available for export, but that increase is now unwinding, after drone hits on oil tankers cut shipments from the Black Sea.”

“Meanwhile, strikes on Russian oil and gas processing plants continue to be an almost nightly occurrence, sending crude processing rates tumbling and creating domestic gasoline supply issues,” Bloomberg explained. “Falling Russian crude shipments come on top of Kremlin-imposed bans on overseas shipments of key refined products, including most gasoline, diesel and jet fuel supplies, which are further reducing inflows to Moscow’s war chest.”

Ukraine, as we noted earlier, has also targeted Russian logistics infrastructure belonging to major online retailers, such as Amazon-style retail giant Wildberries, to increase the financial pain on other sectors of the Russian economy. 

“Ozon, Russia’s second-largest online retailer, is now next in Ukraine’s crosshairs,” CNBC reported. “Shares of the company plunged nearly 30% on the Moscow Exchange on Monday after it reported drone strikes in southern Russia, which brought the number of facilities targeted in the last three days to six.”

Overnight on Monday, Ukraine continued striking inside Russia, attacking the Afipsky Refinery and Gas Separation Units at the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant, according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff. The extent of the damage is still being clarified.

“Afipsky Refinery is one of the large oil refining facilities in the Krasnodar region,” the general staff noted. “The project capacity is 6.25 million tons of oil per year. The plant produces, among other things, diesel, gasoline components, and is involved in supplying the Russian occupation army.”

The governor of the Krasnodar region, Veniamin Kondratiev, acknowledged the attack.

“Debris from a drone fell on the territory of the Afipskaya railway station,” he stated on Telegram. “Sadly, two people were killed. I express my deepest condolences to the families. Two more people were injured, and I wish them a speedy recovery. In addition, at least 10 private homes were damaged in the village of Afipsky. A fire broke out in one of them. A fire also occurred on the territory of a refinery. Firefighters and emergency services are currently working at the scene.”

Russia isn’t alone in worrying about Ukrainian drone strikes. Financial Times reporter Christopher Miller noted on X that the Trump administration asked Kyiv not to strike Moscow, St. Petersburg or northern regions of Russia Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, “when the U.S. would send a plane carrying a senior-level official to the Russian capital.”

On Tuesday, a U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster III strategic airlifter arrived in Moscow, reportedly ferrying CIA Director John Ratcliffe. You can read more about that in our initial story here.

Ratcliffe was visiting as the U.S. struggles to end Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war, though “the reason for the visit wasn’t immediately clear,” The Wall Street Journal noted. “The U.S. has collected intelligence showing Russia’s early preparations for a possible military mobilization in Ukraine and plans for testing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s resolve.”

Analysts said Ratcliffe could meet with Putin to deliver a warning, the newspaper noted.

“It could be to say, ‘We know what you are thinking about doing, and you better not,’” Beth Sanner, a former U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration, told the Journal. “It could also be about the Iran ceasefire and putting someone else in the discussion,” she said, adding Ratcliffe might also touch upon the Kremlin’s support for Iran following a new U.S. sanctions campaign against the regime.

The Latest

Ukraine is making some small advances in the southern section of the front while Russia continues to put heavy pressure on the Donetsk region in the east. Here are some key takeaways from the latest Institute for the Study of War assessment.

• Sumy: Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on August 23 and 24 but did not make confirmed advances.
• Kharkiv: Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Borova, Kupiansk and in the Velykyi Burluk direction on August 23 and 24 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.
• Donetsk: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction. Russian forces continued attempts to isolate Ukrainian forces in Mykolaivka (east of Slovyansk), and attacked in the Dobropillya tactical area, the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Oleksandrivka on August 23 and 24 but did not advance.
• Zaporizhia: Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Kherson: Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces reported ground activity in the Kherson direction on August 24.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered some positive news Tuesday about badly needed air defense systems and interceptors.

“We received confirmation regarding several Crotale air defense systems and missiles for them. And AIM missiles, which we use to shoot down enemy missiles. And a little more Patriot missiles have arrived,” Zelensky told reporters. He did not offer specific figures.

Zelensky added that Ukraine had received confirmation from the United Kingdom regarding the production of SCALP long-range missiles.

He added that “French President Emmanuel Macron had confirmed the unblocking of SCALP missiles and the necessary licenses,” the Kyiv Post reported. You can read more about that effort in our story here.

“We will act. I believe this is a strong positive and a strong decision,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky also said Ukraine expects to receive a schedule for the Freya domestic air defense interceptor initiative within seven to 10 days, including information on meetings and areas where cooperation with defense companies is currently blocked.

Earlier this month, we told you about two drone-related incidents at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany that represented the most serious threats yet in the wave of small drone incursions that have plagued Europe for the past few years. German police said an explosive-laden drone was located on the ground near a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 Condor cargo jet and that there was a midair collision between an object and another cargo aircraft.

More news about that situation emerged today.

German investigators uncovered a third drone and suspected military explosives thought to be connected to the attempted attack on Leipzig airport, the Guardian reported, citing local media.

“The drone was discovered in Kabelsketal, just to the west of the airport, along with about 50g (1.8oz) of a suspected military explosive on 14 August, 10 days after the unsuccessful sabotage,” the publication stated. The office of the prosecutor general, which is leading the investigation, declined to comment on Tuesday. But the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said the government would soon provide information about who it believed was behind the drone attacks.

“They will pay for this,” Merz said, stopping short of naming a suspect, before a cabinet meeting in Brandenburg. He added that the government was “working intensively on this together with the security authorities and we will present our findings and comment on them shortly.”

“Intelligence sources cited by the broadcasters NDR and WDR and the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung said they suspected the involvement of Russian intelligence in the attempted attack,” the Guardian added. Moscow has denied involvement.

Leipzig airport is a cargo and military logistics hub used by NATO and Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines for transporting military supplies. As we noted in our initial piece, the Condor, in particular, represents an unsurprising target for Russia. Ukraine’s An-124s are a source of national pride and a big flying symbol of the country’s defiance and survival. They also provide much-needed revenue to Ukraine and strategic airlift to support the conflict. Ukraine’s An-124s have long provided charter cargo services for western militaries, companies and NGOs. Since the war began, Antonov Airlines An-124s have been used to deliver war materiel bound for Ukraine.

Britain has signed a partnership with Ukraine to jointly develop artificial intelligence tools for defense and security, ​”giving British researchers access to a Ukrainian battlefield data platform ‌used to train military AI systems,” Reuters reported.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Zelensky signed the agreement in Kyiv, making Britain the first international partner to access Ukraine’s ​Avengers AI Labs, a government statement said.

Avengers Labs “was built ​around an annotated dataset of 5 million battlefield images, Ukraine’s ⁠Defense Ministry said earlier in August, largely drawn from the military’s DELTA ​combat system – a domestically developed battlefield management and situational-awareness system,” the outlet added. “The platform uses ​data collected from cameras and sensors across Ukraine’s battlefield, including information on tanks, artillery systems, drones and other military targets.”

The Ukrainian ministry said “AI models trained on ​the data were already being used in an automated target-detection system that ​analyses more than 100,000 drone video feeds each month and can identify about 70% ‌of ⁠enemy targets in real time,” Reuters noted.

In early 2023, donated tanks began arriving in Ukraine with great fanfare and hopes that additional armor would help turn the tide against Russia.

Fast forward to today and many of those tanks that survived combat “now mostly sit idle, hidden in forests and collecting cobwebs,” according to a New York Times report. “The $10 million machines, procured with great fanfare, proved no match for cheap drones that now dominate the battlefield. Yet Ukraine still maintains them and trains soldiers to use them, while trying to imagine new ways to deploy them.”

“We’re making virtually no use of armored vehicles,” Oleksandr Syrskyi, who until last month was Ukraine’s top general, said recently, the newspaper noted. “This raises the question: How can we neutralize this advantage enjoyed by drones and give our armor a new lease on life?”

The situation has changed so drastically that tanks are being used largely as tractors to tow damaged equipment, the Times proffered. Some of the troops are now more involved with drones than tanks. Newer recruits to a unit that was among the first to receive donated armor “have never even touched a tank. Among them was Korzhyk, 33, who joined the brigade in 2025 and spends his days repairing ground drones in a dark workshop,” the publication added.

Video emerged on social media of a Ukrainian MiG-29MU1 Fulcrum fighter dropping U.S.-made GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) toward enemy drone operators inside Russia’s Belgorod region.

Ukraine’s mid-range drone attacks against Russian logistics have proven quite successful; however, the following picture shows not every that not every strike resulted in complete destruction. As you can see, a Hornet one-way attack drone got stuck in the windshield of a truck in occupied Crimea.

That’s it for now.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

In 2022, a satellite image emerged showing unusual fighter-like ‘shapes’ with a very loosely similar appearance to the stealthy J-20 at a remote Chinese airbase. Three years later, another image appeared showing a broadly similar, but also distinctly different-looking object at a different airport in China. The mystery of these ‘airframes’ now seems to be at least partially solved with new pictures of a mock-up being used for airfield firefighting training.

Images of the aircraft fire trainer in question are now circulating on social media, but where or when they were taken is not immediately clear. Markings seen on the tarmac are different from what is present on the aprons at Lintao Air Base, where the ‘shapes’ were spotted back in 2022, as well as at Jining Qufu Airport, where the other object was spotted in 2025.

The overall design of the vaguely J-20-like aircraft fire trainer also aligns more with the object that previously appeared at Jining Qufu Airport. Both share a distinct modified diamond-like delta planform, as well as canards, and twin vertical tails. It is worth noting that the ground-level images we have now also show a cockpit configuration that is more representative of the newer J-35. Regardless, the articles seen at Lintao had differently shaped wings and longer, more slender noses.

In general, aircraft fire trainers can be anything that loosely represents a desired class of aircraft – fighter, airliner, etc – and can range from specially built systems to repurposed old aircraft hulks. Training aids of this kind are designed to offer a readily reusable way to add realism to airfield firefighting drills. They are in widespread use globally by national militaries and civilian fire departments. The shapes previously seen at Lintao could still serve some other purpose as full-scale mock-ups, or decoys, as well.

The emergence of the firefighting trainer also comes as the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) fleet of real J-20s continues to expand, something TWZ explored in detail earlier this year. The PLAAF may have some 500 J-20s in service now, with examples assigned to at least 14 operational units and three training bases, according to one estimate. There are projections that the total fleet could grow to 1,000 airframes by 2030 if production of the jets continues apace. This is inclusive of all variants, including a two-seat version that first broke cover in 2021.

The growing size of China’s fleets of J-20s, as well as other more modern fighters, can only increase demands for training, both for pilots and ground crew, as well as maintenance and sustainment requirements. Ever larger numbers of routine day-to-day sorties raise the risk of crashes and other accidents just as a matter of course.

Also, while the object spotted at Jining Qufu Airport in 2025 now seems pretty definitively to have been a firefighting trainer, a steady stream of new, real advanced aircraft designs have been emerging in China in recent years. This includes crewed and uncrewed types with a multitude of shapes and sizes, ranging from the J-36 and J-XDS next-generation fighters to various sleek combat drones to several types of pilotless flying wings. New Chinese aviation developments do have a history of emerging suddenly, as TWZ has often been the first to report.

As China’s fleets of more advanced operational aircraft continue to expand in scale and scope, we can expect to see similar growth in the infrastructure and other assets necessary to support their operations, including new aircraft fire trainers.

Special thanks to Andreas Rupprecht, an expert on Chinese aviation and contributor to this website, who goes by @RupprechtDeino on X, for bringing this to our attention.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The amended law was an attempt by state Republicans to crack down on unproven claims of voting by noncitizens.

A United States federal court has temporarily blocked an Ohio law that required proof of US citizenship from residents who wanted to register to vote while they obtained a driver’s license.

In his ruling on Tuesday, US District Judge Solomon Oliver Jr granted a preliminary injunction against the law, saying it likely violates the US National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) because it requires more information than necessary to determine a resident’s eligibility to vote.

“Election officials do not need documentary proof of citizenship to assess a voter registration applicant’s citizenship because signed attestation of citizenship is enough,” Oliver wrote.

The judge also pointed to a clause in the act that says each US state’s driver’s license application “shall serve as an application for voter registration with respect to election for Federal office unless the applicant fails to sign the voter registration application”.

Oliver said that Ohio must offer applicants the opportunity to register once they’ve submitted their driver’s license application, not after it’s been approved by the state’s Bureau of Motor Vehicles (BMV).

“To interpret this section of the NVRA otherwise would allow States to make registering to vote at the BMV more onerous, and could result in fewer voter registrations because the opportunity to apply was not proactively offered to otherwise eligible citizens,” Oliver added.

In 1995, Ohio passed a so-called “motor-voter” law that allowed residents the opportunity to register to vote when they applied for a driver’s license

But that law was amended last year by the state’s Republican-controlled legislature in an attempt to crack down on unproven claims, pushed in part by US President Donald Trump, that noncitizens were voting in the state’s election. US law prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections.

The ruling marks a victory for voting rights advocates like Red Wine & Blue, which sued Ohio’s secretary of state, Frank LaRose, over claims that the law disenfranchised eligible voters and violated the NVRA.

One of the group’s lawyers, Ben Stafford, praised the ruling, calling it “a win for Ohio voters.”

“With the registration deadline just weeks away, eligible Ohioans will now have the opportunity to register to vote at the BMV without having to produce unnecessary paperwork that is not required by federal law,” Stafford, an attorney at Elias Law Group, said in a statement.

LaRose said his office disagrees with the decision and will appeal.

US President Donald Trump has said that the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the Strait of Hormuz – the vital waterway which Iran has largely closed since the beginning of the war in the Middle East.

“Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be immediately and systematically destroyed,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

There is no comment from Iran.

Closure of the strait has caused wild fluctuations in the price of oil on world markets. Trump has often said the US has control of the area – but Iran has fired against vessels it says have sought to cross without its permission.

Some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas used to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the war, which began on 28 February with US and Israeli air strikes against Iran.

In addition to closing the strait, Iran retaliated against Israel and against US bases in the region as well as US Arab allies in the Gulf.

A ceasefire aimed at facilitating talks to end the war has collapsed and there has been intermittent exchange of fire between the US and Iran.

However, this week the US announced a raft of economic sanctions against Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that any nation financially partnering with Iran would be isolated.

Iran and the US signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in June – a 14-point document which set a 60-day deadline to reach a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, before substantial negotiations on resolving the nuclear issue – allegations that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, which Tehran has consistently denied.

However, that deadline has now expired and talks have collapsed leading to the new US sanctions that Trump believes will lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime.

Iran has been under sanctions for most of the time since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979 and Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said Tehran was “fully prepared” for the wider sanctions, which he added would lead to “another defeat” for the US.

Its economy, however, has suffered as a result of the war – and a blockade of Iranian ports that the US has been maintaining for weeks not to allow trade to continue.

On Tuesday, China – the biggest buyer of Iranian oil – said it was firmly opposed to what it called the US’s “illegal unilateral sanctions” and would take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its rights.

The US announcement comes ahead of planned talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month.

Washington is likely to be wary of potential retaliation from Beijing, which processes the majority of the world’s rare earths and other critical minerals, crucial in the manufacture of many high-tech products.

Beijing has already tightened export controls on rare earths as part of previous trade negotiations with the US.

India’s Supreme Court has ordered an inquiry into police conduct during last month’s “cockroach” protests.

Police have rejected an Amnesty International report accusing them of brutality.

With more protests planned, how big a problem has the youth-led movement become for the government?

Presenter: Cyril Vanier

Guests:

Sravasti Dasgupta – senior political correspondent at The Wire in New Delhi

Shaina NC – national spokesperson for Shiv Sena, a political party in India aligned with the governing Bharatiya Janata Party

Uday Chandra – professor of comparative politics and international relations at Ashoka University

Police used water cannons and batons as a few thousand protesters broke through security barricades in Bihar’s capital.

Indian students and unemployed youth have clashed with police as they marched towards the residence of the chief minister of the eastern state of Bihar, ruled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party, demanding access to jobs and transparency in recruitment exams.

The government forces in Bihar used water cannons and lathis – the Indian version of batons – as a few thousand protesters broke through security barricades in the state capital Patna, videos seen by Al Jazeera showed on Tuesday.

The demonstrations came a month after massive Gen Z protests in New Delhi pushed for the ouster of India’s education minister over alleged irregularities in conducting key competitive examinations.

The July 25 resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan also marked a significant political defeat for PM Modi, who has tried to maintain a strongman image, while India has continued to slide in multiple democratic indices under his rule since 2014.

Police in Bihar, home to about 130 million people, detained at least 25 protesters in Patna and released them later, according to the Indian Express newspaper.

Local police accused some protesters of attacking security personnel.

“Police will identify those involved in stone pelting at police and will take action against them,” Patna Police Superintendent Kartikeya K Sharma told reporters on Tuesday.

The protests began last week with unemployed youth demanding jobs, but they later expanded to include calls for education reform.

Bihar Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary said his office was “listening to every student’s voice”.

A delegation of student representatives met Bihar’s top bureaucrat, Pratyaya Amrit, after the protests. Amrit then told reporters that the discussion “was positive, and we were assured of a favourable response within a couple of days”.

The tight employment market in India makes government jobs, which offer long-term stability, a major draw for millions.

Since the massive youth-led protests organised by the online Cockroach Janta Party in New Delhi, there have been similar demonstrations in other states challenging both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and opposition parties.

In southern Karnataka, members of a BJP-linked student body staged a protest near the state chief minister’s residence on Tuesday over alleged irregularities in recruitment for government jobs.

Bihar’s regional Education Minister Mithilesh Tiwari said the government had addressed students’ demands, without giving more details, and added that the door for dialogue remained “wide open”.

In New Delhi, the Cockroach movement has also announced a march next month to protest against what it says is the Modi government’s failure to fulfil several promises of change, including the withdrawal of police cases against protesters.

In an intriguing development, Poland has been named among the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers covered by a massive new U.S. contract with Boeing for the F-15 program. This has prompted renewed speculation that Warsaw could eventually acquire the F-15EX Eagle II. Poland’s Ministry of National Defense, however, says there is currently no such plan, but there is a precedent here, with the Polish order for AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters following a very similar path.

The U.S. Department of War announced Monday that Boeing had received an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract with a ceiling value of $131.23 billion for the “F-15 Eagle Crest” program. The agreement covers production, systems integration, modernization, upgrades, retrofits, sustainment and the establishment of depot-level maintenance capabilities for F-15 aircraft. Work is expected to continue through August 2037, with orders initially permitted through August 2031 and an option to extend that period to 2036.

The distinction is significant. An IDIQ contract establishes a mechanism through which orders can subsequently be placed; it does not itself constitute an aircraft purchase by every country named within it. The $131.23 billion figure is therefore a maximum contractual ceiling for the wider F-15 program, rather than the value of aircraft already ordered by the United States and its foreign customers.

Importantly, the contract also covers Foreign Military Sales customers. The Pentagon specifically lists Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, and Poland.

Of these, it should be noted that Indonesia was once in line to be the first export operator of the F-15EX, but, earlier this year, Boeing confirmed the country had abandoned its plans to buy the jets. The deal had been in stasis for the previous two years.

Poland, however, had never formally announced plans to order the F-15EX, although Boeing eyes the country as a potential customer for the aircraft.

Boeing has actively promoted the F-15EX to Warsaw, while Polish military officials have previously visited the company’s facilities in the United States. In 2025, then-Inspector of the Polish Air Force Gen. Ireneusz Nowak flew an F-15EX at Boeing’s facilities.

The aircraft has frequently appeared in discussions about Poland’s requirement for additional fourth-generation fighters. Warsaw has already committed to a large expansion of its fifth-generation F-35 fleet, with Polish officials confirming plans for another 32 F-35As in addition to the 32 aircraft already ordered.

F35 – HUSARZ

As we have discussed in the past, the F-15EX could provide a compelling complement to the F-35, providing a large weapons payload, long range, and a substantial air-to-air weapons capacity. But there is currently no indication from Poland that such a procurement has entered a formal acquisition phase.

Poland’s Ministry of National Defence told Defence24 that the Polish Armed Forces “do not plan to acquire F-15EX aircraft” and that the country’s inclusion in the U.S. framework contract does not mean a decision has been made or that a procurement process has begun.

As it is, the wording of the U.S. announcement is best understood as identifying countries that can potentially participate in F-15 Foreign Military Sales under the new contractual framework.

For Poland, Washington has established a long-term contractual vehicle that could facilitate a future F-15EX purchase, even though Warsaw says it has no current plan to acquire the aircraft.

Whether that changes in the future remains a separate question. However, as Gareth Jennings, aviation desk editor at Janes, has pointed out, in 2017 the U.S. Department of Defense denied that Poland had selected the AH-64 after it was named in a similar contract, for sensors. Not long after, Warsaw became the largest international customer for the Apache, buying 96 examples of the attack helicopter.

Boeing today told Jennings that Poland has not yet made a decision about the F-15EX.

As for the Apache buy, this is just one part of an extraordinary military expansion underway since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Warsaw has pursued major acquisitions across nearly every part of its armed forces, including 48 FA-50 light combat aircraft, 180 K2 tanks and 250 M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tanks, alongside its 32-aircraft F-35 order. Its existing fleet of F-16 fighters is also set for a major upgrade.

With the FMS case for Indonesia having expired earlier this year, an F-15EX sale to Indonesia now looks far less likely.

For now, there is no Polish F-15EX deal, and Warsaw is clear that no procurement process has begun. But the country’s inclusion in the U.S. framework, combined with Boeing’s continued interest and the Apache precedent, means the possibility is worth watching.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The trip is thought to be Ratcliffe’s first trip to Russia as CIA director, although he has maintained contact with his intelligence counterparts in Moscow.

John Foreman, who served as a British military attaché to Moscow between 2019 and 2022, told Radio 4’s PM programme that the visit could be focused on “escalation management” given speculation recent drone activity in Germany could be linked to Russia.

He said: “The Americans don’t normally send such a high ranking official to Moscow unannounced at short notice unless something is up.”

Foreman said the trip could also concern the release of US detainees currently being held in Russia.

Ratcliffe played a role in negotiations for the release of Russian-American citizen Ksenia Karelina’s, who was jailed in Russia for over a year after being accused of providing support to Ukraine.

The CIA was also involved in a 2024 prisoner swap deal with Russia that saw the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, as well as former US marine Paul Whelan and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva.

The US has had strained relations with Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since then, Russia has been isolated on the world stage and faced international economic sanctions.

Ratcliffe appears to be one of the highest-ranking US officials to visit the country during President Donald Trump’s second term.

Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit in Alaska last year but the meeting did not lead to a breakthrough. Subsequent US-led peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appear to have stalled.

Additional reporting by BBC Verify

Fire containment has reached 27 percent in the rampant wildfire that first erupted in the Sierra Nevada foothills near the city of Reno in the state of Nevada in the United States. At least seven people – three first responders and four civilians – have been injured.

The blaze first broke out on Saturday and exploded in size by Sunday, destroying at least 32 homes and damaging six as it spread perilously close to dense neighbourhoods. Local officials, speaking at an afternoon news briefing on Monday, said those numbers are sure to rise as assessment teams begin to survey the charred areas.

They also said the fire had no new growth and has held steady at about 60 square kilometres (23 square miles) since it burned out of control on Sunday.

“We are making progress,” assured US Forest Service District Ranger Matt Zumstein.

Videos posted on social media showed the smouldering ruins of homes and cars, with only a scorched basketball hoop still standing.

By Monday, the number of residents under evacuation orders and warnings was lowered to about 63,000, down from more than 90,000 people when the blaze first mushroomed over the weekend. While winds have eased, there are still concerns that gusts could propel the flames through dry brush into newly developed neighbourhoods in Nevada’s largest city outside of metro Las Vegas. Reno is home to about 280,000 people.

Schools across the local area were closed because of the evacuations and to keep roads clear for emergency crews.

‘Like nothing I’ve seen before’: Reno faces third wildfire in two weeks

Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve said the way the fire spread so quickly at its peak had her fearing for the worst.

“It lit up these areas like nothing I’ve seen before,” she said Monday, adding, “it took your breath away, in the worst way”.

This is the third large wildfire in the craggy, high-desert region north of Reno in just the past two weeks – driven completely by human behaviour, according to fire officials. They have not disclosed whether the Hawk Fire, which is what the blaze is known as due to having started near the Hawk Meadow Trail, was intentionally set or accidental. Much of the area that burned was sagebrush and grass.

Resident Crystal Hallock, 53, has lost her home to a fire twice in under a decade. She moved into the rebuilt house in 2019, a year after an electrical fire burned it down.

Nevada’s governor quickly declared a state of emergency in Washoe County over the weekend after mobilising the National Guard to help with aerial firefighting and protecting evacuated neighbourhoods northwest of downtown Reno. But at one roadblock, residents expressed frustration that they could not get back into their homes, according to The Associated Press news agency.

“There’s no fire here! Why are the National Guard here?” a driver yelled.

Washoe County Sheriff Darin Balaam said he understands that some residents are frustrated that they can’t get home, but the danger isn’t over yet. “It just takes that little breeze and one ember,” he said.

Reno is southwest of Nevada’s Black Rock Desert, site of the annual Burning Man festival, which begins on August 30.

Many who travel to Burning Man make Reno a regular pit stop. Organisers on Monday requested that attendees not take hotel rooms and other resources away from fire evacuees, while being mindful of closures.

“Treat our neighbors, first responders, hospitality workers and everyone affected by this emergency with patience and care,” a Burning Man statement read.

Western wildfire risk stays high

Much of Nevada’s western edge is under an increased risk of wildfires this week because of high winds and low relative humidity, the National Interagency Fire Center said. The National Weather Service says the region will see warm, dry and breezy conditions, and that critical fire weather conditions are possible in the week’s latter half. Reno sits at an elevation of 1,370 metres (4,500 feet).

Extremely dry conditions across the American West have sparked a rash of wildfires this summer. Fires in eastern Washington state forced the evacuation of 60,000 people in the Spokane area in early August.

Nationwide wildfires have topped 50,000 this year, marking a 10-year high for the same period, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

A house rammed by a car before the fatal A66 crash in Middlesbrough belonged to the father of a teenager who died in the incident.

Cole Worthy, 17, was one of five young men who died when a Volkswagen Passat travelling in the wrong direction hit a Cleveland Police armed response vehicle, also killing two police officers.

The force said that in the early hours of Saturday, and the previous night, it had received multiple reports of two cars driving dangerously around the town and a Volvo XC60, believed to be linked to the Passat, was seen ramming properties.

There is no suggestion Worthy’s father was involved in criminal activity.

PC Tom Clough, 38, and PC Matthew Blades, 37, died in the crash, as did Michael Robert Cahill, 23, Jacob Matusiak, 23, Makai Saddington, 18, Theo Rae, 17, and Worthy.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct said officers had been pursuing the Passat for almost seven minutes after it was connected to earlier alleged criminal activity, but the pursuit was abandoned 10 seconds before the crash when it turned on to the dual carriageway.

Both vehicles were operating with cloned number plates but were picked up by automated number plate recognition technology.

Yan Diomande topped Real’s transfers, and Jose Mourinho says he is happy despite missing out on Rodri to Barcelona.

Real Madrid coach Jose Mourinho says he is “very happy” with his squad, which he considers complete despite missing out on midfielder Rodri, later signed by rivals Barcelona.

Los Blancos revamped their squad this summer, signing six players including record arrival Yan Diomande, Bernardo Silva and Marc Cucurella.

However, Madrid’s approach for Rodri broke down, meaning that, beyond former Man City playmaker Silva, they have not strengthened in midfield.

“For me the squad is closed, but the market is still open – you never know if a player will come and say ‘I’ve been benched twice and I want to leave,’” Mourinho told reporters on Tuesday.

“In theory, no [more deals]… but something could always happen… In my head the squad is closed, and I have not asked for anyone. I am very happy with the players I have.”

With midfield maestros Toni Kroos and Luka Modric departing in 2024 and 2025 respectively, Madrid have struggled to control matches.

Mourinho’s side snatched a late 2-1 win at Espanyol on Saturday in their La Liga opener, starting with Silva and Federico Valverde together in midfield.

Mourinho said French defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni was not ready to play against Real Sociedad on Wednesday.

“He’s got a problem, the holiday time wasn’t enough [for him to recover], seeing the games approaching, the player wanted to try … but we’ve decided that you can’t start a season in suffering,” explained the coach.

“You can finish a season suffering, the last couple of months, but you can’t start in August not at 100 percent.

“So we decided with him, the staff, the medical department, to get him to return at 100 percent.”

Mourinho said he had faith in Uruguayan international Valverde as a midfielder, despite previous coaches using him in a variety of roles, including right-back and right winger.

“For me he is a player for the centre of the pitch,” added Mourinho.

“Depending on the opponent and our objectives, he might be more set in his position or more mobile.”

Mourinho said that in modern football, players’ positions were less relevant.

“I don’t want to identify Tchouameni as the No. 6, Camavinga No. 6, Fede No. 8, Bernardo No. 10 … things dilute during games.”

Ministers have announced where more than 70,000 social and affordable homes will be built in England over the next 10 years as part of an initial allocation of almost £10bn, in a bid to address the housing crisis.

Funding has been granted to Greater Manchester, the West Midlands, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East England, and Liverpool. An additional £6bn was previously announced for London.

It is the first part of a wider plan to build 300,000 social and affordable homes across the nation, under the government’s £39bn social housebuilding programme.

Earlier this year, before he became prime minister, Andy Burnham had called for the entire 10-year £39bn affordable housing budget for England to be spent on homes for social rent – which means the cost of the unit is about half that of market rents, and there are strict criteria for who can apply for it.

“I would actually devote all of it to social housing,” Burnham told The Social Housing Podcast in May.

But of the new homes announced on Monday, 60% would be for social rent.

Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook told BBC Breakfast he did not accept Burnham had failed to meet his previous commitment, saying the government had taken a “pragmatic approach” and wants to “get money out the door”.

He said the next tranche of funding would be more focused on council houses – which are usually also classed as homes for social rent.

It is understood ministers decided against giving councils more of the funding announced in the first tranche because they did not believe councils would be in a position to build the required number of social homes.

Islamabad, Pakistan — Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir spent Monday moving through the power corridors of Tehran: the presidency, parliament, the Supreme National Security Council, and the foreign and interior ministries.

He met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as well as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is Tehran’s chief negotiator in talks with the United States to end their now six-month-long war.

But amid a deadlock in those peace negotiations, many analysts say that Munir’s true test as mediator will lie in his ability to use his position as one of the region’s most powerful military leaders to convince his Iranian counterparts in olive uniforms to agree to a return to talks with Washington.

Days before Munir’s visit, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told a gathering of doctors in Tehran that it was time to end the war while Iran held the advantage, a message aimed as much at Tehran’s own security establishment as at Washington.

“It is better that we bring the war to an end now as we are in a position of power and dignity,” he said, adding that “the whole world acknowledges our victory”.

Hours later, on August 21, the chief of the general staff of Iran’s armed forces, Major-General Ali Abdollahi, promised “revolutionary, crushing, regret-inducing and devastating” responses to any American miscalculation.

It was a sharp illustration of the gap between Iran’s president and the men now running its military — one that Munir will need to also navigate, analysts say.

And that’s why Munir’s most significant meeting on Monday might have been with General Mohsen Rezaei, a representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei is essentially the bridge between the military and Khamenei.

State of the war

Munir’s visit to Tehran came on a day when the region and the world were bracing for US President Donald Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” sanctions against Iran, accompanied by a threatened punishment for all countries that continue to trade with Tehran.

Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast“, a sweeping sanctions campaign targeting Iran’s digital assets, gold, aviation, technology and shipping networks.

But while warning other countries to sever trade ties with Iran, he held back from actually announcing any penalties for those nations, acknowledging that such a step would “blow up the global financial system”.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking the same day, kept the option of renewed strikes open.

“If we need to use kinetic strikes, we’ll use them. If Iran is foolish enough to overplay their hand or mess with the American military, we’ll do what we need to do,” he said.

It’s unclear whether Munir’s visit helped stave off broader US action against Iran and its trading partners.

But the timing was significant, analysts point out. Munir travelled to Tehran days after taking a phone call from United States President Donald Trump, who reportedly asked Islamabad to use its influence to bring Iran back to the table.

Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said the one-day visit had produced “comprehensive discussions” on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war.

Iranian officials, the ISPR added, “appreciated Pakistan’s constructive role and sincere efforts”.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who travelled with Munir, went further, calling the talks “very positive and productive” and saying “significant progress was made”.

A reshuffled Iranian military

This was his fourth visit to Tehran this year, but his first since Iran’s military hierarchy changed earlier this month.

On August 10, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei installed Abdollahi as chief of the general staff and moved Rezaei into the Supreme National Security Council. Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has held his post since March, when his predecessor was killed in the war’s opening strikes.

It is these military men that analysts say are now shaping Iran’s war moves, potentially giving a fellow man in uniform an edge over traditional diplomats in convincing Tehran to get back to talks.

“It is increasingly the IRGC and the wider security establishment driving decisions on war and peace during this crisis,” Ahmed Saeed, a former vice admiral in Pakistan’s navy and a defence analyst, told Al Jazeera.

Naqvi, the interior minister, has travelled to Tehran eight times since April without those visits producing a substantial breakthrough.

But unlike him, Munir is not a politician. He’s a general who appears to enjoy the trust of both the Iranian leadership and, crucially, Trump — who has described the Pakistani army chief as his “favourite field marshal”.

“The call [to Munir a few days ago] was initiated by Trump himself, requesting Pakistani leadership use its influence to bring Iran back to the table,” Saeed said.

Warm words, no movement

What Iranian officials actually told Munir, in accounts carried by Iranian state media, differed little from what they have been telling their own broadcasters all week.

“We distrust America, and it must change its behaviour,” Rezaei told Munir, according to IRNA.

Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, was blunter.

“We are pursuing the implementation of the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding, and it is America that must adhere to its commitments based on the Memorandum of Understanding,” he told Munir, according to IRNA.

Pezeshkian, meanwhile, pressed Munir to tell Washington to “correct its tone and approach”, warning that “relying on force and bullying will only complicate the process”, according to Tasnim, another Iranian outlet.

Two tracks, one strait

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Albusaidi is also expected in Tehran today for a separate round of talks focused specifically on the Strait of Hormuz, a track that has run alongside Pakistan’s mediation for months.

Oman’s involvement is not new. Albusaidi has held recurring talks with Tehran on the strait’s navigation rules.

Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defence analyst, said the Omani and Pakistani diplomatic tracks complement each other.

“Oman and Islamabad channels complement, because clause 5 of the Islamabad MoU stresses a bilateral understanding on the strait [between Oman and Iran],” he told Al Jazeera. The Strait of Hormuz passes through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.

“This [a deal between Iran and Oman to jointly manage the strait] is not in the interest of the US, which is why Trump has threatened to bomb Oman,” Haider said, referring to remarks Trump made on August 17, when he told Fox News he would bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of reopening the strait, the second time he had threatened the US ally over Hormuz.

Where Islamabad’s advantage as a mediator lay was in its “direct access to Vahidi, Abdollahi and Rezaei, the actual architects of Iran’s decision-making”, Saeed, the former naval official, said.

An Iranian official close to the negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Albusaidi would be in Tehran “primarily to hear what Iran has decided and what it has discussed with its Pakistani mediator”.

Who holds the leverage?

Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of defence studies at King’s College London, said the differences that had emerged between the Iranian military and civilian leaderships demonstrate a gulf between their understanding of where the war stood.

Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf, Krieg said, were “essentially warning that Iran cannot live indefinitely in this condition”, while “parts of the IRGC believe the opposite and think time is working against Washington”.

But ultimately, he said, “Mohsen Rezaei, Ahmad Vahidi and the IRGC are central to whether any political understanding [to end the war] can be implemented”, referring to Iran’s top military leadership.

“[Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi can negotiate something, and Qatar can broker it, but none of that matters if the security apparatus does not accept the operational consequences.”

For now, Munir appears to be the candidate mediators believe has the best shot at getting Iranian generals from their war room to the board room.

Yellow weather warnings have been issued by the Met Office as heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast to break out over parts of the UK later this week.

The warnings span Wednesday and Thursday and include parts of east Wales, the Midlands, northern England, East Anglia and southern England – including London.

It is likely to be the one of the most widespread outbreaks of heavy rain across southern and central parts of the UK this summer.

While good news for regions plagued by drought, significant accumulations could lead to flash flooding where the ground is too dry and hard to absorb the downpours. Lightning, large hail and gusty winds are also possible.

The trial judge, Dabney Friedrich, has agreed that the start date should be set aside, underlining the potential importance of the new evidence.

She would have been extremely reluctant to allow an 11th hour postponement after months of preparation and marathon pre-trial legal battles.

For the relatives of those who died and Al-Marimi himself, this latest delay means a verdict might not come until next spring.

It is yet another stunning development in a saga that has witnessed countless twists and turns over nearly four decades.

Pan Am 103 was flying from Heathrow to New York when the bomb exploded in its forward hold, breaking the plane apart at 31,000 feet.

All 259 passengers and crew on board were killed. Another 11 people died in Lockerbie when the wreckage fell on their homes.

Of the victims, 190 were American and 43 from the UK.

Nearly four decades later, the bombing remains the worst terror attack and mass murder in British history.

The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is heading home, finally. After nine months that surely felt longer for the crew and their families and friends waiting at home, the CSG left the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR) over the weekend, formally ending a 200-plus-day combat deployment to the Middle East. The supercarrier was most recently transiting eastbound in the Indian Ocean, once again operating under U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM). The flattop will reportedly make a port call in Thailand, according to a just-released report from USA Today – the first and only liberty port call since deploying late last year – before continuing on to Naval Base San Diego. In Lincoln’s stead, USS George Washington has taken up station in the Arabian Sea, as the Navy maintains dual-carrier coverage in theater to support the ongoing blockade of Iran.

This is TWZ’s weekly carrier tracker monitoring America’s flattop fleet, including deployed Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG), using publicly available open-source information. Check out last week’s report here.

The Lincoln CSG has been deployed for 277 days, as of publication, in what will shake out to be one of the longest deployments in the modern carrier era. The CSG served as the tip of the spear during Operation Epic Fury, pressuring Iran’s southern axis from the northern Arabian Sea, and was instrumental in enforcing the two rounds of blockades that followed. Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9 launched more than 10,000 sorties and dropped over 1.5 million pounds of ordnance in support of both operations, according to a statement from the acting Secretary of the Navy.

For the vast majority of Sailors and Marines aboard the Lincoln, the last time they stepped on solid ground was in November 2025 when the flattop deployed. The carrier has pulled into two ports since departing last year, but they have been characterized as brief “pit stops,” and were not “liberty” calls, where the crew has the opportunity to disembark and disengage. The first, in December 2025, was publicized on DVIDS when Lincoln spent a day in Guam; the second, lesser known and reported, took place in early July at a friendly port in the Middle East that TWZ will not identify for operational security purposes. During the latter stop, CNN reporter Pamela Brown embarked for the first media embed of the war, right around the time that Lincoln was set to break the record for the most consecutive days at sea without a port call, which TWZ was among the first to report. It’s still unclear if the record was broken, or if the flattop pulled into port a few days before.

Lincoln is scheduled to enter a Drydocking Planned Incremental Availability (DPIA) after returning home, according to budget documents reviewed by TWZ, and when she will return to service is unclear, as lengthy deployments tend to extend maintenance periods. You can read our recent deep-dive on the status of the four carriers undergoing availabilities, and the broader strain on the carrier fleet, here.

USS George Washington has assumed Lincoln’s watch in CENTCOM, joining USS George H.W. Bush to “support maritime security and stability in the Middle East” as the conflict with Iran approaches the half-year mark, without a negotiated deal in sight. Washington is America’s only forward-deployed flattop, homeported in Yokosuka, Japan, and was conducting a routine patrol in the Western Pacific before transiting the Malacca Strait and steaming toward CENTCOM to relieve Lincoln. Prior to deploying, Washington completed a pierside Planned Incremental Availability (PIA) in Japan “to service critical systems and conduct repairs,” the Assistant Public Affairs Officer (PAO) told TWZ earlier this year.

Washington achieved a significant aviation milestone just before entering the CENTCOM AOR, surpassing 200,000 fixed-wing traps. “Two hundred thousand traps is not just a number, it is a testament to the enduring strength of American naval aviation and the unmatching professionalism of the Sailors who make it possible,” the commander of CSG 5, Rear Adm. Jeffrey L. Heames, said. “This milestone reminds the world that U.S. carriers remain ready to launch and recover aircraft anywhere, anytime, in defense of freedom and our allies,” he added. Washington, which has been in active service for 34 years, is “capable of landing one aircraft on deck per minute, and typically lands 70 aircraft across several events throughout the day,” according to a statement released by the PAO.

TWZ reached out to Washington’s PAO to confirm the composition of the carrier’s air wing. Here’s the current accounting:

Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 5

• Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 147 “Argonauts” – F-35C Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (Navy-operated)
• Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 102 “Diamondbacks” – FA-18F Super Hornets
• Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 27 “Royal Maces” – FA-18E Super Hornets
• Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 195 “Dambusters” – FA-18E Super Hornets
• Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 141 “Shadowhawks” – EA-18G Growlers
• Airborne Command and Control Squadron (VAW) 125 “Tigertails” – E-2D Hawkeyes
• Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 12 “Golden Falcons” – MH-60S Seahawks
• Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 77 “Saberhawks” – MH-60R Seahawks
• Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 30 Det. 5 “Titans” – CMV-22B Ospreys

Like Lincoln, Washington embarks a single squadron of F-35C Joint Strike Fighters, as well as three squadrons of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. However, Washington’s F-35C squadron is operated by the Navy, while Lincoln’s is flown by the Marine Corps. The Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) commander for CSG-5 is classified.

The second carrier underway in the CENTCOM AOR, USS George H.W. Bush, has been deployed for more than four months and is operating at an undisclosed location in the Arabian Sea. The ship was spotted on DVIDS, the military’s content-sharing platform, conducting daytime and nighttime flight ops over the past two weeks.

In the continental United States, two carriers are currently underway and working up off the east and west coast. USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, homeported at Naval Station Norfolk, got underway on August 21 and is operating 35 nautical miles off the coast with her AIS transponder on. USS Carl Vinson departed San Diego on August 10 and is conducting Tailored Ship’s Training Availability (TSTA) and Final Evaluation Period (FEP). The next carrier scheduled to deploy, USS Theodore Roosevelt, is still pierside in San Diego, based on commercial satellite imagery.

Overall, three U.S. carriers are deployed (with one heading home), one is preparing to deploy in the near term, two are working up in various states of readiness, four are currently in maintenance, and one is being used primarily for training before deactivation next year. One amphibious ready group is deployed, one is forward-deployed, four are working up or in port, and three are in maintenance.

Note: Positions are general approximations. Non-deployed LHA/LHD amphibious warships are not shown.

Contact the author: ian.ellis-jones@recurrent.io

Mérida, August 24, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) –The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued two general licenses granting specific permissions for telecommunications operations with Venezuela.

Under General License 61 (GL61), published on Friday, OFAC authorized US companies to provide “technology, software, or services for the installation, maintenance, refurbishment, repair, upgrade, operation, or support of telecommunications” to Venezuela’s state-owned telecommunications company CANTV and National Telecommunications Commission CONATEL.

According to official OFAC definitions, telecommunications services encompass fixed and mobile telephony, data transmission, internet connectivity, radio and television broadcasting, news agency feeds, satellite communications, and submarine cables.

GL61 permits specific operational activities, including payment processing, logistics, air freight, insurance, data storage, server maintenance, roaming agreements, and infrastructure leasing. However, the license specifies that Venezuelan state entities must procure new acquisitions directly from US companies or US citizens.

In addition, the Trump administration published General License 62 (GL62), authorizing negotiations for contracts in Venezuela’s telecommunications sector, though specific agreements remain contingent on a separate specific license,

Both sanctions waivers impose that any contracts be governed by the laws of a state or federal jurisdiction within the United States. Furthermore, the licenses demand that “dispute resolution proceedings relating to the contract occur in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, or Singapore.”

The Treasury licenses maintain bans on debt swaps, physical gold, or digital currencies and tokens issued by or on behalf of the Venezuelan government.

Furthermore, GL61 and GL62 maintain restrictions prohibiting “any transaction involving a person located in the Russian Federation, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the People’s Republic of China, or any entity that is owned or controlled by or in a joint venture with such persons”.

Since the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Washington has upheld its wide-reaching coercive economic sanctions in areas such as energy and mining,  while issuing licenses to favor US and Western corporations.

US sanctions and restrictions on Chinese technology firms present a challenge to CANTV’s recent operational landscape. For the past two decades, the Venezuelan government has forged bilateral agreements with Chinese telecom firms, including ZTE and Huawei, establishing joint projects to manufacture and deploy telecommunications equipment domestically. 

Over the last decade, CANTV has worked with Huawei and ZTE to modernize networks, expand fiber-optic infrastructure, and sustain broadband services nationwide. Venezuelan authorities have not commented on the latest US licenses and potential impact on existing agreements.

In addition, CANTV has been identified by analysts as a potential candidate for privatization. The company has recently been mired in controversy after reportedly slashing retired workers’ incomes. Retirees have staged protests in several states in recent days after a US $200 monthly bonus was arbitrarily slashed, while also demanding the restoration of basic medical insurance and health coverage guaranteed by collective bargaining agreements.

In parallel, CONATEL has launched technical and legal working sessions with representatives of SpaceX’s Starlink service to examine radio spectrum allocation, equipment homologation, and regulatory compliance under Venezuela’s Organic Telecommunications Law.

Despite Maduro previously criticizing SpaceX owner Elon Musk for destabilizing politics in Venezuela and Latin America, the acting Delcy Rodríguez government thanked the tech mogul for activating free Starlink services in the wake of the June 24 double earthquake in the Caribbean nation.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.