NEWS

US president says deal secures majority US control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela.

The United States has struck a deal with Caracas that would give them control of some 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves, President Donald Trump has announced, while reviving the OPEC nation’s battered energy industry.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the “historic transaction more than doubles American oil reserves” and “will substantially lower gas prices for all Americans”.

“At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority US control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer,” Trump wrote.

Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez welcomed the deal, which is expected to bring about $209bn to the state’s treasury.

The announcement followed weeks of negotiations over an agreement that would give American companies long-term access to a group of Venezuelan oilfields and guarantee the resulting crude supply to the US.

Venezuelan officials are preparing to sign agreements next week granting new oil exploration and production rights to a number of companies, particularly US firms.

Sources previously told Reuters news agency that a lease model was under consideration, with fields potentially auctioned to US producers, but the arrangement could face legal and constitutional challenges in Venezuela, where the state retains control over core oil industry activities.

The new deal would represent a dramatic expansion of Washington’s role in Venezuela’s oil industry as the Trump administration seeks to revive the country’s production and secure more crude for US refineries. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but produces only 1.25 million barrels per day, far below its potential after years of underinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions.

Trump did not disclose the structure of the agreement, the fields or companies involved, nor how the US would exercise majority control over the reserves.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the agreement as a win for both countries, saying on X that it would secure stable, low-cost oil for the US and help lower petrol prices.

For Venezuela, Rubio said the deal would bring nearly $100bn in private investment, support thousands of high-paying jobs and help rebuild the country’s economy.

Rayan Cherki refuses to hide his emotions, an open book for all to see and hear in times of joy and disappointment.

Moments after Manchester City had put down their first heavyweight marker of the post-Pep Guardiola era by brushing aside Crystal Palace, he was asked live on TV how much he enjoyed the game. Rather than providing the usual textbook answer, he instead gave a colourfully uncomplimentary – and unprintable – description of his own first-half performance.

Erling Haaland, standing alongside Cherki as he waited to hand over the player-of-the-match award, could only laugh at the France attacker’s sweary honesty.

Indeed, the 23-year-old also refuses to hide his talent, making a nonsense of his self-criticism by unveiling a Selhurst Park masterclass with two brilliant second-half goals in the 4-1 victory.

Cherki made his impact under Guardiola last season, although there was always a feeling the mercurial signing from Lyon for a bargain £30m could produce more. He made 33 Premier League appearances – but 14 of those were as a substitute.

And there is a sense that he already has something to prove under new boss Enzo Maresca amid City’s vast attacking resources, coming off the bench to assist the two late goals that gave them victory against Bournemouth on the opening weekend.

Cherki was seen in animated conversation with Maresca after the final whistle, but his reward was a start at Selhurst Park and he delivered the sort of irresistible performance he, as well as City, needed.

DRC’s is the fastest-spreading Ebola outbreak ever recorded, with 5,794 confirmed cases and 2,786 deaths.

The fastest-spreading Ebola outbreak in history has reached two new health zones in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with a total of 60 areas now affected, according to the latest government figures.

The two new zones affected are Biena and Manguredjipa in DRC’s North Kivu province, where the fatality rate is much higher than the overall rate of 48 percent, partly due to delayed response efforts, according to data by the Ministry of Health released on Friday.

The ministry said the outbreak in DRC has recorded 5,794 confirmed cases, including 2,786 deaths, and is spreading at an unprecedented speed – faster than efforts to track and slow it.

Efforts to contain the outbreak have been hampered by armed conflict in the affected provinces, displacement, attacks on medical personnel and facilities, a mobile working population, and a lack of critical infrastructure.

The outbreak is now on track to surpass the deadliest Ebola epidemic on record – the 2014 to 2016 outbreak in West Africa that killed more than 11,000 people.

Meanwhile, aid group Doctors Without Borders – known by its French acronym MSF – said on Friday it had opened a new treatment centre in Beni in North Kivu in the country’s northeast to enable a faster response in what it said was one of the hardest-hit areas.

Beni has recorded 122 confirmed cases and 87 deaths since the start of the outbreak in mid-May, with an Ebola fatality rate of close to 69 percent, one of the highest in the country, according to the latest government figures.

Aid workers have said that a shortage of bed capacity is one of the factors hampering the response to the outbreak. The new centre “enables the rapid treatment of patients, strengthens contact tracing and supports the health authorities in their efforts to contain the spread of the virus,” MSF said in a statement.

There is no approved vaccine or treatment for this particular strain of Ebola, known as Bundibugyo, which is rarer than the virus type behind most past outbreaks. This means that relief workers are more reliant on traditional methods like tracing contacts and ⁠isolating patients to try to control ⁠its spread.

MSF currently has 1,400 staff in DRC supporting the response, ‌and operates ‌treatment centres with a total of 400 beds.

“Early diagnosis and treatment as soon as the first symptoms appear significantly increase people’s chances of survival, whilst reducing the risk of transmission ‌ within families and communities,” MSF emergency coordinator Albert Stern said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on Thursday that Ebola is spreading faster than efforts to contain it.

“The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the fastest-spreading Ebola epidemic ever recorded,” he said in a post on US social media company X. “It’s growing faster and wider than the response to contain it.

“We know how to contain Ebola and save lives. The world must urgently step up action to get it under control.”

British right-wing political commentator Milo Yiannopoulos has apparently been detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), according to the agency’s records.

Yiannopoulos, 41, a former editor of Breitbart News and a onetime employee of rapper Kanye West, appears to be held in Louisiana, according to a search of ICE’s inmate registry.

The self-styled provocateur has called himself the “most fabulous supervillain on the internet”. His critics call him a purveyor of hate speech.

Neither ICE nor Yiannopoulos has responded to the BBC’s request for comment, but his name and British origins appear in a search of detainees nationwide.

The circumstances around his apparent detention were unclear. Yiannopoulos, who grew up in Kent in the south of England, has been residing in the US.

He was an early supporter of Donald Trump during the 2016 election, headlining an event that year called Gays for Trump during the Republican National Convention.

But he fell out with Trump’s movement. Yiannopoulos still voices support for the Republican president’s agenda. “Total legal immunity for ICE agents when they’re on duty,” he posted on X last year.

But he posted in March this year on X that Trump “has lost his way, bought off by foreign interests”.

Yiannopoulos has courted controversy with his comments on transgender people, Muslims, Black Lives Matter, feminists and gay people, even though he himself identified as gay. He now calls himself an “ex-gay”.

He has written columns titled “Birth Control Makes Women Unattractive and Crazy” and “Would You Rather Your Child Had Feminism or Cancer?”

In 2017, Yiannopoulos was uninvited from speaking at CPAC, a US conservative conference that also hosted Trump, after footage emerged of him appearing to condone paedophilia. He also later apologised and resigned from Breitbart.

He denied the allegations, and said he had been speaking about his own experiences as a child.

Yiannopoulos was once regularly linked with the alt-right, a disparate group that is outspoken against political correctness and feminism and which includes neo-Nazis and white supremacists.

He has said he does not consider himself part of the alt-right, although he has called it “energising and exciting”.

The U.S. Air Force has stood up a new squadron at Andrews Air Force Base to manage the arrival of HH-60W Jolly Green II helicopters to replace aging UH-1N Twin Hueys. Originally designed for combat search and rescue (CSAR) missions, the HH-60Ws assigned to the 5th Helicopter Squadron will be in a specialized configuration to take on the tasks of ferrying VIPs around the nation’s capital and supporting continuity of government plans. Questions have been raised about using Jolly Green IIs in these roles, and how this may impact the ability of the overall fleet of these helicopters to meet CSAR demands.

The Air Force held a ceremony at Andrews yesterday to mark the formal activation of the 5th Helicopter Squadron, also sometimes abbreviated as 5 HS. The 1st Helicopter Squadron (1 HS), with its UH-1Ns, will continue to operate throughout the transition to the HH-60W, which is expected to be completed in 2030, to avoid any gaps in capacity to meet critical operational requirements. A total of 26 Jolly Green IIs are set to be based at the facility, which is situated just outside Washington, D.C., a one-for-one replacement for the Twin Hueys that are there now. The arrival of the new helicopters will also lead to a small increase in total personnel, 60 in total, at Andrews.

The Air Force originally planned to supplant all of its UH-1Ns worldwide with new MH-139 Grey Wolf helicopters, which is a more direct replacement in terms of size and capability. The service is still acquiring MH-139s to supplant UH-1Ns elsewhere, including ones assigned to Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) units that help provide security around Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. We will come back to this later on.

“The HH-60W’s increased speed, range and carrying capacity will better deliver safe operations for U.S. senior leaders, service members, and the communities around the region,” the Air Force said in a press release regarding the 5th Helicopter Squadron’s activation.

The Jolly Green II also has in-flight refueling capability, something that is not found on the UH-1N or MH-139, and could be very valuable for missions around Washington, D.C. The HH-60Ws heading to Andrews are set to receive additional modifications, including to the main cabin seating arrangement, communications suite, and defensive capabilities, as you can read more about here.

Combat Rescue Helicopter Successfully Executes Major Test Milestone: Aerial Refueling

“In the next few years, the 5 HS will train aircrew and maintainers, establish operational and maintenance processes, and receive new aircraft as it prepares to execute the national security mission within the National Capital Region,” the release yesterday added.

National Capital Region (NCR) refers to a larger area that surrounds Washington, D.C., proper. Air Force operations in and around the NCR are primarily managed through a unit called the Air Force District of Washington (AFDW).

The HH-60Ws will be taking over an AFDW mission set from the UH-1Ns that currently includes daily airlift sorties transporting U.S. and foreign VIPs around the nation’s capital. The helicopters will also be in position to swing into action as part of continuity of government plans. In such a scenario, the Jolly Green IIs would be tasked to help rush senior officials and lawmakers to safety to ensure the continued functioning of federal authorities following an attack or a similarly serious contingency. 1st Helicopter Squadron’s role in responding to the terrorist attack on the Pentagon on 9/11 was highlighted during the activation ceremony at Andrews yesterday.

The NCR presents particular challenges for crisis response missions and routine day-to-day flight operations. The airspace around Washington, D.C., is most densely defended and heavily monitored anywhere in the United States, and packed full of military and civilian air traffic every day. Where and when military helicopters can operate over the nation’s capital has been a hot topic of debate since a fatal mid-air collision involving an Army UH-60 Black Hawk and a PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet in January 2025. The Black Hawk was conducting a continuity of government training flight at the time. This has been more recently highlighted by an incident involving a Marine One helicopter carrying President Donald Trump earlier this month. A subsequent Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) investigation has highlighted communication issues and factors tied to the construction of a new helipad at the White House.

It is also worth noting here that Marine Helicopter Squadron One (HMX-1), the primary unit responsible for the Marine One presidential helicopter mission, would play a role in any continuity of government scenario in the NCR. Helicopters from the U.S. Park Police, as well as ones belonging to other law enforcement and civilian agencies, would be utilized, too.

Military and police helicopters land at the US Capitol this evening.

As mentioned, there are significant questions about the impacts of basing HH-60Ws at Andrews will have on the rest of the Air Force’s Jolly Green II fleet. This is something TWZ highlighted when the Air Force confirmed it was moving ahead with the AFDW HH-60W plan with the release of its 2027 Fiscal Year budget request earlier this year.

A particular issue is the Air Force’s decision years ago to scale back total purchases of HH-60Ws, from 113 helicopters down to 91. If the service does not order more Jolly Green IIs in the coming years, this will mean that roughly a third of the entire fleet will be assigned to the AFDW mission.

Up close with the HH-60W Combat Rescue Helicopter at Nellis AFB for The War Zone.

The Air Force previously confirmed the plan will involve taking HH-60Ws out of “back up inventory.” In the past, the service has defended this decision as being “more cost effective” than a move to “procure additional MH-139A aircraft” to meet AFDW requirements. Whether or not there were other specific operational considerations that factored into the decision to use Jolly Green IIs to meet these needs instead is unknown. The acquisition plan for the Grey Wolf has also been significantly truncated, with the Air Force now planning to buy just 56 of these helicopters instead of 80.

“The MH-139A Grey Wolf was competitively selected to replace the UH-1N for intercontinental ballistic missile security and National Capital Region missions, including continuity of government and transport of United States government officials and security forces,” members of the House Armed Services Committee wrote in a report accompanying a draft of the annual policy bill, or National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for the 2027 Fiscal Year, back in May. “The committee remains concerned regarding the justification for transitioning these missions to an alternate rotary-wing platform and seeks additional details on cost and operational implications.”

At that time, the House Armed Services Committee explicitly directed “the Secretary of the Air Force to submit a report to the congressional defense committees not later than December 1, 2026, assessing operational, cost, infrastructure, and readiness impacts of assigning any non-MH-139A rotary-wing aircraft to continuity of government and transport of United States government officials and security forces in the National Capital Region.” The lawmakers stressed that the report had to include “a comparison of procurement cost, cost per flight hour, infrastructure and aircraft modification requirements, and training and manpower impacts” and an assessment of the cost, schedule, and operational disruption associated with required upgrades to Joint Base Andrews facilities for each aircraft type.”

Separate questions have been raised in recent years about the utility of traditional CSAR helicopters in future operations, especially in the context of a high-end fight, such as one between the United States and China in the Pacific. Air Force officials openly talked about exploring alternatives for rescuing aircrew downed deep inside contested environments, but details about those plans remained limited.

At the same time, demand for traditional CSAR capabilities has certainly not gone away entirely. This was underscored by the operation to retrieve the crew of an F-15E Strike Eagle that went down inside Iran in April. HH-60Ws were part of the larger force package sent into Iranian airspace to help recover those aviators.

In the meantime, the Air Force’s UH-1Ns, a type the service first began operating in the early 1970s. are only getting older and harder to sustain, too. Three of the UH-1Ns currently assigned to 1st Helicopter Squadron saw combat during the Vietnam War. Just last week, one of the unit’s Twin Hueys made a precautionary landing in an open field in Maryland “after experiencing unusual mechanical noise” while on a training flight. This is hardly the first time such an incident has occurred.

There is a possibility that Congress could more directly intervene in the Air Force’s move to start flying HH-60Ws around Washington, D.C. With the expectation that UH-1Ns will remain in service at Andrews for another four years, there is time for the service’s own plans to evolve further.

With the activation of 5th Helicopter Squadron, the Air Force has now taken an important step toward an all-new helicopter force in the nation’s capital.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Canada’s economy has rebounded sharply in the second quarter after six months of virtually no growth, aided by a strong jump in exports and solid domestic demand, though a new round of tariffs from the United States brings renewed uncertainty.

The economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter, the fastest rate since 2023, after a revised 0.3 percent increase in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

The upward revision to first-quarter growth means Canada was not in a technical recession, usually defined as two straight quarters of contraction.

Healthy domestic demand, led by consumer spending and business investment, signals the economy is slowly brushing off the impacts of more than 18 months of US import tariffs that upended North American supply chains and increased costs.

Renewed tariff dispute

A strong domestic consumption and expenditure pattern puts Canada on a firm footing to withstand a new 50 percent US import tariff that President Donald Trump imposed this week on $20bn of Canadian exports. Canada retaliated with its own countermeasures on US imports.

“It seems like households and businesses were beginning to find ways of navigating the trade-related uncertainty before the latest round of tariffs,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins, wrote in a note.

“While it helps that the economy was on stronger footing heading into August, the fresh wave of protectionism injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the outlook,” Mendes said.

Michael Davenport, senior Canada economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note to Al Jazeera that while the gross domestic product (GDP) growth was along expected lines, “the economy is set to slow in the coming quarters amid escalating US-Canada trade policy uncertainty, new bilateral tariffs, and a shrinking population”.

The Canadian dollar weakened slightly after the GDP data, with the loonie trading down 0.01 percent at 72.17 US cents.

On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.8 percent for the period ended June, from an upwardly revised 0.1 percent in the previous quarter.

Second-quarter annualised growth was higher than the Bank of Canada’s July forecast of 2.5 percent growth.

Higher exports were one of the main contributing factors for the second-quarter growth, with outbound shipments growing 3.6 percent, the biggest increase in over three years, Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said.

Stronger household spending

Final domestic demand, the sum of all consumption and capital spending and a crucial metric to assess domestic health, rebounded to 1 percent in the second quarter, from a minor contraction in the first quarter.

Domestic demand has been muted for several quarters as consumers and businesses remain cautious while Canada navigates its trade war with the US.

But household final consumption expenditure, the main indicator of consumer spending, rose 0.8 percent, its highest level in three quarters, highlighting stronger household spending. This was mainly driven by higher wages and government benefits, economists said.

Business investment, or business gross fixed capital formation, sprang to a solid 2.3 percent growth in the second quarter from a contraction of 1.3 percent, the first time in the last year and a half that business investment has expanded.

That growth was led by investment in both residential and non-residential structures, machinery and equipment, StatsCan said.

However, the general gross fixed capital formation, essentially government expenditure for creating assets, continued to decline with a second-quarter contraction of 2.9 percent, after shrinking 2.6 percent in the previous quarter.

On a month-to-month basis, GDP for June grew 0.3 percent against a forecast of 0.2 percent, and an advance indicator showed that the economy was largely flat in July, the statistics agency said.

Saab’s first Gripen F two-seat fighter has taken to the air, marking the beginning of the flight-test campaign for a variant being developed in close cooperation with Brazil.

The aircraft departed Saab’s airfield at Linköping, Sweden, at 9:40 a.m. local time today and remained airborne for approximately 40 minutes. Saab chief test pilot Jakob Högberg and Brazilian Air Force test pilot Lt. Col. Aviator Abdon de Rezende Vasconcelos were in the cockpit for the inaugural sortie.

According to Saab, the flight was intended primarily to verify the aircraft’s core systems and initial flying characteristics. The company says the aircraft will now enter a more extensive test program, including progressive expansion of its permitted flight envelope.

That work will eventually cover the aircraft’s speed, altitude, G-loading, and angle-of-attack limits, as well as the tactical capabilities and systems associated specifically with the rear cockpit.

“This first flight represents an important step forward for both Saab and the Brazilian Air Force,” said Lars Tossman, head of Saab business area Aeronautics.  “Seeing Gripen F take to the skies is particularly significant for all the Swedish and Brazilian teams whose years of engineering work have helped turn this aircraft into a reality. It is designed to accelerate pilot training while and enhancing operational performance in advanced combat missions.”

The Gripen F is the two-seat derivative of the Gripen E, but it is not simply a conventional trainer version of the single-seat fighter. Saab has designed the rear cockpit to be independently functional, allowing the aircraft to retain an operational combat role while carrying a second crew member.

The configuration is therfefore intended to support conversion training and mission preparation while also offering potential advantages during complex combat missions through the division of cockpit workload. This could also include as a ‘drone controller,’ a growing area of interest for many air forces and something that Saab is also working toward with its uncrewed aircraft plans.

Combining the Gripen F, in particular, with a high-end drone of the kind that Saab envisages, would make a good deal of sense.

Saab has already pitched its stealthy, supersonic Autonomous Collaborative Platform (ACP) ‘fighter drone’ as an adjunct for the single-seater, describing it as “a great asset to the Gripen E.” Saab envisages the Gripen E serving as a tactical mission commander for one or more ACPs, working in conjunction with the company’s GlobalEye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.

The dual-crew benefits of the Gripen F, combined with the ACP, could give Saab an even more compelling route into the CCA market. After all, a fourth-generation fighter like the Gripen (Saab, it should be noted, rigorosly avoids using this generational terminology), can remain highly relevant when teamed with CCAs, and a high-performance, stealthy drone like the ACP could make that combination even more potent. It could, at least possibly in some cases, allow air forces to skip the sixth-generation crewed combat air platforms altogether, or at least greatly reduce the need for them.

Brazil is central to the Gripen F program. The country was the launch customer for the two-seat variant and participated directly in its development as part of the broader technology-transfer arrangement underpinning its Gripen acquisition.

The first Gripen F was formally rolled out at Saab’s Linköping facility in June. Brazil’s original 2014 agreement with Saab covers 36 aircraft, in the form of 28 single-seat Gripen E fighters and eight Gripen F two-seaters. Deliveries of Brazilian Gripens began in 2020.

The F-model has also attracted interest beyond Brazil. Saab has subsequently received Gripen F orders from Thailand and Colombia. The South American nation will get two Gripen Fs, while the breakdown of Thailand’s Gripen E/F order has not been revealed. According to Saab, the 16 new-build Gripens ordered for Ukraine will all be single-seaters.

As for the Swedish Air Force, this plans to buy 60 single-seat Gripen Es, but bearing in mind the changing security situation in Europe, and the increasing focus on uncrewed aircraft, a future Gripen F order should not be ruled out. In particular, Saab has said it expects the Swedish government to acquire new Gripen E/Fs to backfill the 12 earlier Gripen C/D variants it has donated to Kyiv, and which are expected to arrive in Ukraine early next year.

Saab also remains upbeat about the prospect of a Canadian order for the Gripen E/F.

Sweden has made a strong push to sell Gripen to Ottawa, and Saab offered to build the jet in Canada, in an effort to secure support for its previous bid, which it lost to Lockheed Martin and the F-35. Since then, Saab has also emerged as the preferred candidate to supply Canada with its future AEW&C capabilities via its GlobalEye.

Days after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed this month, further straining the Canada-United States relationship, Saab chief executive Micael Johansson told TWZ and other journalists that Gripen would be the “perfect” option if Canada moves ahead with a joint fighter purchase. The Swedish jet would add “combat mass” alongside the F-35, according to Johansson.

“I don’t think Canada will give up the F-35 completely; they will go forward with that to some extent,” Johansson said.

Johansson also pointed to the Gripen’s ability to operate from highway strips as well as conventional runways: “You get to use all kinds of airstrips that you cannot use with the F-35,” he added.

Gripen practicing landing and take off from a road base

Part of the Saab pitch to Canada is the establishment of a new domestic final assembly line for the Gripen E/F, which woud be the third such facility after Sweden and Brazil.

As for the Brazilian connection, this extends well beyond aircraft procurement. Saab says more than 350 Brazilian engineers, technicians, and pilots have participated in activities covering Gripen development, production, flight testing, and maintenance. Brazilian industry, including Embraer, has consequently become deeply involved in the program.

Meanwhile, Saab is continuing to expand what the fighter can actually do once it leaves the factory.

Recent work has included a test launch of the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile, as well as last year’s integration of Helsing’s Centaur AI agent, which was tested in a beyond-visual-range combat scenario.

Speaking last week, Johan Segertoft, head of Saab’s Gripen business unit, points to the fighter’s digital architecture as a key enabler of the rapid integration of new capabilities. The company says the Centaur integration took just 10 weeks.

“We chose BVR because it’s one of the most complex things to prove that we could take third-party software and do it, but there’s a lot of things in an aircraft and outside an aircraft that benefit from the advancement of software,” Segertoft said.

Since the Gripen E first flew in 2017, Saab has implemented around 300 capability upgrades, according to Segertoft. He contrasts that with what he describes as a theoretical maximum of around five upgrades for competing aircraft.

That approach is summed up by Saab’s internal mantra, Segertoft says: “code in the evening, deploy in the morning, learn by lunch.”

The Gripen F test campaign will now move beyond basic systems checks toward progressively more demanding flight conditions. Saab’s Flight Test Center in Sweden will conduct the campaign before the aircraft undergoes the remaining acceptance procedures and is eventually handed over to the Brazilian Air Force.

The first flight therefore represents a milestone not only for Saab’s new two-seat fighter but also for the industrial partnership that produced it. Potentially, that model could be repeated in Canada in the future.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

At a Kathmandu hospital, families peer at lists of those who are critical, dead — or have been released.

Kathmandu/Nuwakot/Trishuli, Nepal – Loknath Chaulagain is looking for his 23-year-old nephew Sudarshan at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital.

A bus conductor, Sudarshan was waiting at the checkpoint in Timure, a town bordering Tibet, when the flash flood that devastated parts of Nepal and Tibet struck on Wednesday. His family says a phone call went through to his number at 9:54am local time – after the flash flood struck the border region – but Sudarshan did not pick up the call. Since then, his phone has been unreachable.

The family has been searching for him – near where the floods struck, and now in Kathmandu’s hospitals, where some survivors have been brought. But so far, they’ve had no luck.

They’re not alone. Thousands of families in Nepal are still stranded in the no-man’s land between hope and fear: hopes of an impossible miracle and worst fears of losing someone they love.

Two days after the flash flood swept away much of what lay in its path along the Bhotekoshi River in the northern Himalayan region bordering Tibet, the full scale of devastation is yet to be ascertained in Nepal. The death toll is on the rise, with nearly 500 bodies recovered. The missing toll is well over 1,000 and is expected to rise further.

The wall of water with ice and mud that surged downstream with fury on August 26 caused maximum damage to Timure, Rasuwagadhi and Syabrubesi in the higher Rasuwa region nearer to Tibetan border checkpoints.

Downstream, it washed away buildings, electric poles, bridges, markets, homes and vehicles that stood in its path in Trishuli and Nuwakot regions.

The usually buzzing Trishuli market is today covered in mud, sludge and debris. Locals, including many Indians who have made the area their home for many years, beg and plead with relief workers to take them to their destroyed homes in earthmovers to retrieve whatever may be left of their belongings.

Helicopters whirred nonstop on Wednesday and Thursday in these areas, trying to rescue those trapped under the rubble or washed away and stranded in dangerous situations. Those rescued with lighter injuries are being treated at the army camp helipad medical unit, while those with grievous injuries are being airlifted to bigger facilities in Kathmandu.

At the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, people come by and plaster posters on walls with photographs and contact details of missing friends and family. Other hospital pillars bear lists of those who have been admitted or are in critical condition – or those who have been killed: five-year-old Ishara Tamang in paediatric surgery; 30-year-old Tej Bhadur Tamang in the ICU; 25-year-old male Kusal Magar, listed as dead. Multiple pairs of concerned eyes gaze intensely at these lists, hoping to find their loved ones there.

Among them is Sohan, a young man who does not want to speak to journalists on camera. He is searching for his 42-year-old father, Gyan Bahadur Rana Magar. “Three days on, we are searching and still trying to find him,” he says. His father went with Indian tourists as a guide to Rasuwa, the border district with Tibet that is one of the worst affected.

When the lists on pillars offer no answers, people searching for their loved ones head to the mortuary where photographs of some of the recovered bodies have been glued to the gates. Many bodies were found dismembered; some were missing limbs. When someone finds a hint of familiarity, they inform security officials, who let them in after some identification check to take a look at the body.

Dressed in a red saree and blouse, and wearing a red pothe necklace  – a traditional glass-bead necklace worn by married women in Nepal – Lal Kumari is desperately looking for her husband, Arjun Shreshtha. A tourist van driver in his late 40s, he was swept away by the flood in Rasuwa district. Kumari has three children, including a married daughter and a grandchild, and her only question is: Could her husband, miraculously, still be alive?

At least 17 companies linked to illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank hold United Kingdom public-sector contracts worth more than 2.1 billion pounds ($2.85bn), an Al Jazeera investigation reveals.

The findings come as more than 140 UK Labour MPs are calling on the government to ban trade with illegal Israeli settlements, a move Prime Minister Andy Burnham is considering.

Our analysis of procurement records, company filings and corporate disclosures found that businesses named by the United Nations over their involvement in illegal Israeli settlements – and companies those businesses ultimately own or control as subsidiaries – have secured contracts across the British public sector, including in areas such as road maintenance, transport, emergency services and driving licensing.

“Evidence is growing that the UK may be in breach of its international obligations … by continuing to contract with entities identified by the UN as providing assistance of this sort,” Stephen Humphreys, professor of international law at the London School of Economics, told Al Jazeera.

Data compiled by public procurement analysts Tussell, and shared with Al Jazeera, shows the 17 companies and entities hold 125 public-sector contracts with a combined award value of 2.129 billion pounds ($2.89bn).

Companies owned by Motorola Solutions, the United States technology and communications giant, account for more than 1.7 billion pounds ($2.3bn) of the total – the vast majority through its British subsidiary Airwave Solutions. Other contracts we reviewed are held by firms within four other corporate groups including Heidelberg Materials, a German multinational building materials company; the French engineering group Egis; the Spanish train manufacturer CAF and Chinese conglomerate Fosun.

A report by the United Nations Human Rights Office identifies the five corporate groups as involved in business activities related to illegal Israeli settlements.

Heidelberg Materials’ Israeli subsidiary owns a quarry on Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank, while Motorola is embedded in the security infrastructure of illegal settlements. Egis and CAF are involved in Jerusalem’s expanding light-rail network – a project activists say entrenches Israel’s control by integrating settlements into the city while further fragmenting Palestinian neighbourhoods.

Fosun International, whose subsidiary Breas Medical receives UK public money, also owns the controversial Israeli cosmetics manufacturer Ahava, which operates in the Mitzpe Shalem illegal settlement in the occupied West Bank. Civil rights groups, including the Palestinian Solidarity Campaign in the UK, decry Ahava as a firm that is “complicit” in the theft of Palestinian land and livelihoods.

Meanwhile, violence is escalating in the occupied West Bank.

In July 2024, the International Court of Justice found Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory unlawful and said it must end “as rapidly as possible”. The court also placed obligations on other states “not to render aid or assistance in maintaining the situation created by Israel’s illegal presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory”.

That raises questions over Britain’s continued commercial relationships with the companies identified in Al Jazeera’s investigation, observers said.

‘UK government is propping up apartheid’

Humphreys believes that Britain may also be failing to meet its legal obligations by “failing to launch its own investigation into their activities, with a view to preventing them if necessary”.

The UK has also warned businesses against bidding for construction tenders in illegal settlements.

“Businesses should not consider bidding for construction tenders,” a government statement issued this month said, warning of “legal and reputational consequences” and the risk of involvement in “serious breaches of international law”.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Al Jazeera’s findings expose a contradiction between the UK’s stated position and its economic ties.

“Quite simply, the UK government is propping up apartheid,” Corbyn told Al Jazeera. “Every day, the UK deepens its complicity in Israel’s economy of occupation and, in turn, Israel’s economy of genocide.”

The Cabinet Office told Al Jazeera that individual public authorities make decisions to exclude suppliers case-by-case for each contract. It said public procurement in the UK should not be used to boycott suppliers linked to other countries unless formal UK sanctions, embargoes or restrictions are in place.

Here’s what we found about some of the companies involved in settlement trade:

Motorola Solutions: Tech embedded in illegal settlements

The UN identifies Motorola in connection with two settlement-related activities: the “supply of security services, equipment and materials to enterprises operating in settlements” and the “provision of services and utilities supporting the maintenance and existence of settlements, including transport”.

Al Jazeera contacted the Motorola Solutions group for comment but received no response.

It is the largest beneficiary of UK public money that we investigated.

Motorola’s subsidiaries are entrusted with providing communications equipment to the emergency services in the UK. The largest contract identified by Al Jazeera is held by Airwave Solutions, a Motorola subsidiary. The Home Office awarded Airwave an extension worth 1.562 billion pounds ($2.13bn) to provide the secure communications network used by police, fire and ambulance services across England, Scotland and Wales. Motorola Solutions UK separately holds contracts worth 123.9 million pounds ($170m), including a 36.5-million-pound ($49.8m) Ministry of Defence contract for Airwave radios, accessories and airtime.

Five companies now ultimately controlled by Motorola Solutions Inc – Airwave Solutions Ltd, Motorola Solutions UK Ltd, CRFS Ltd, 3TC Software Ltd and Noggin IT Ltd – hold 91 active UK public-sector contracts worth 1.726 billion pounds ($2.3bn), according to the latest Tussell data.

Motorola Solutions Inc and its Israeli subsidiary, Motorola Solutions Israel Ltd, were included when the UN Human Rights Office first published its database of businesses involved in specified settlement-related activities in 2020. Both remain in its latest version.

Official records provide a glimpse of how the company’s technology has been embedded in settlements.

Tenders from Mateh Binyamin Regional Council and the municipal corporation of Ariel, both illegal settlements, show Motorola command-and-control technology being used in security and surveillance infrastructure.

Motorola equipment has also been bought by the Israeli Civil Administration, the military body through which Israel administers civilian affairs in the occupied West Bank.

In 2005, the UN reported that Motorola supplied surveillance systems to settlements including Hebron, Karmei Tzur and Bracha.

Motorola’s relationship with the Israeli authorities continues today. An Israeli government procurement document obtained by Al Jazeera shows Motorola Solutions Israel was awarded a 25.5-million-shekel ($8.7m) contract in May 2026 to maintain approximately 19,000 police radios and provide encryption licences until April 2028.

Heidelberg Materials: A controversial quarry on occupied land

The UN has listed Heidelberg Materials over the commercial use of natural resources in occupied Palestinian territory.

In Britain, five Heidelberg Materials companies hold 25 public-sector contracts worth 184.79 million pounds ($252m). Almost all of that – 179.03 million pounds ($244m) – is held by Hanson Quarry Products Europe Ltd. Its contracts include 60 million pounds ($81.9m) from Westmorland and Furness Council for road surfacing and highway works between 2024 and 2027, and a 50-million-pound ($68.3m) surfacing maintenance contract with Somerset Council.

Its Israeli subsidiary, Hanson Israel, owns the Nahal Raba quarry, south of Qalqilya in the West Bank. The quarry sits on land belonging to the Palestinian villages of az-Zawiya and Rafat, according to Who Profits.

An official Civil Administration planning notice reviewed by Al Jazeera shows a proposal was approved to expand the site.

Who Profits, a group that researches links between the private sector and the economy in the Israeli-occupied territories, said the approval was granted on May 28, 2025.

Heidelberg told Al Jazeera that in 2023, Hanson Israel “ceased all activities at the Nahal Raba quarry and the associated asphalt plant and ready-mix concrete plant”, adding that only security personnel are present on site.

Egis: Selling transport infrastructure that supports settlements

French engineering group Egis provides another type of connection via transport infrastructure linking illegal Israeli settlements in occupied East Jerusalem with the rest of the city.

The UN lists Egis in connection with the “provision of services and utilities supporting the maintenance and existence of settlements, including transport”.

Egis’s own material shows that its involvement in Jerusalem’s expanding light-rail network continues today, with the company website advertising a job for an engineering expert based in Jerusalem on its light-rail projects.

Jerusalem Transportation Master Plan procurement documents from 2017 also identify Egis Rail as its general consultant, responsible for supervising and coordinating planning and design work on the Blue and Green lines.

Jerusalem’s light rail crosses into occupied East Jerusalem and links illegal Israeli settlements there with West Jerusalem. UN reports have described the railway as “additional infrastructure serving the illegal settlement network” and said it further isolates occupied East Jerusalem from the rest of the occupied West Bank.

Egis told Al Jazeera it “formally expressed its disagreement with this inclusion” in the UN database.

In Britain, five companies and entities controlled by Egis hold six public-sector contracts worth 133.60 million pounds ($182.4m). Almost the entire amount comes from a single contract, with the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency awarding Egis Projects UK Ltd a 133.23-million-pound ($181.9m) contract for enforcement services across Britain. Egis businesses also hold UK public contracts, including Galson Sciences, Helios Technology, Egis Transport Solutions and architecture practice WestonWilliamson+Partners.

CAF: Constructing project to continue into 2027

Spanish train manufacturer CAF is also involved in Jerusalem’s light-rail network. The company has disclosed that the 1.8-billion-euro ($2.10bn) Jerusalem project was awarded in 2019 to TransJerusalem J-Net Ltd, a firm owned 50 percent by CAF and 50 percent by Israeli construction business Shapir.

CAF said the project includes construction of the Green Line and extension of the existing Red Line, “which partially run through East Jerusalem”. The construction phase is expected to continue until 2027.

The UN identifies CAF over the “supply of equipment and materials facilitating the construction and the expansion of settlements” and the “use of natural resources, in particular water and land, for business purposes”.

Al Jazeera contacted CAF for comment but received no response.

Meanwhile, CAF has an extensive relationship with Britain’s public sector, including supplying trams for one of the country’s major urban networks. The West Midlands Combined Authority awarded CAF an 83.5-million-pound ($114m) contract for a new generation of trams for the West Midlands Metro. The contract runs until December 2027, according to Tussell data.

Fosun: Owner of a cosmetics company accused of excavating Dead Sea mud in occupied territory

Chinese conglomerate Fosun International is identified by the UN under the category covering the commercial use of natural resources, particularly water and land.

Its connection to the occupied West Bank centres on Israeli cosmetics manufacturer Ahava Dead Sea Laboratories. Fosun itself announced in April 2016 that it had agreed to acquire Ahava for 290 million shekels ($76.8m).

Fosun’s subsequent statutory reporting recorded Ahava as 99.46-percent owned.

A European Commission statement in 2018 said Ahava “does have operations in the settlement Mitzpeh Shalem, located in Occupied Territories”.

According to the Quaker-founded organisation, American Friends Service Committee (AFSC), repeated site visits confirmed that Ahava’s former factory in the illegal Mitzpe Shalem settlement remained operational as of 2026.

The group said Dead Sea mud was excavated in the occupied Palestinian territory and initially processed at the site before being transferred to Ein Gedi for further production.

In Britain, Breas Medical, which is ultimately owned through Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical by Fosun International, holds two public-sector contracts worth 1.29 million pounds ($1.76m). Fosun International is the controlling shareholder of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical.

Al Jazeera contacted Fosun for comment but received no response.

It has been six months since February 28, when the US and Israel shocked the world by launching missile strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials in Tehran, as well as scores of children in a school in Minab, southern Iran.

US President Donald Trump then claimed the conflict would only last “four to five weeks”.

In the months since, the war has erupted on several other fronts, reaching as far as the Caspian Sea. It has triggered a global oil supply crisis as the US and Iran battle for control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one-fifth of oil and natural gas cargo transited.

And it has resulted in an estimated 8,000-10,000 deaths, as well as tens of thousands of injuries.

The conflict is also realigning the global order, experts say, as new alliances form and dominant ones show signs of crumbling.

Here’s what we know:

Has the US achieved any of its war objectives?

The US’s goals were not initially clear: officials first claimed the strikes were carried out in preemptive self-defence.

According to demands presented on the eve of the war, and a jumble of sometimes contradictory statements from Trump and senior US defence officials, they include the following:

Iran’s nuclear programme

Despite Trump’s claim that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when it joined in at the end of Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June 2025, the US and Israel again claimed in February that Tehran was just weeks away from developing nuclear weapons.

Repeated strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites during the war have likely caused vast damage to the facilities, but it is believed Tehran still possesses 440kg of highly enriched uranium, which could be used to make a weapon.

The Trump administration wanted Iran to hand over this stock to the US and to commit to zero enrichment of uranium going forward. Iran refused to do this, although at one point appeared open to the possibility of handing the stock over to a third country. Iran also insisted on retaining the capacity to develop a nuclear power programme, which requires much lower levels of uranium enrichment.

Later, Trump briefly floated the idea of US troops retrieving the stock by force – a potentially dangerous mission.

In the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by both sides, Iran agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon – something it had always pledged anyway. The MoU unravelled as its vague wording led to disagreements about what it actually stipulated.

Clark Summers, a US military veteran and professor at Belmont Abbey College in North Carolina, said the US “can rightly assert that these ends have been achieved. Although for how long before Iran can rebuild is difficult to assess.”

But Iranian expert and professor at the Australian National University (ANU), Alam Saleh, disagreed, and noted that Iran’s nuclear power programme is still intact. “The US lost even before the war,” he said, adding that the effort also shows that Washington failed in last year’s 12-day war.

Regime change in Iran

On day one of the war – February 28 – the US killed Khamenei alongside several other senior officials. Trump, two days earlier, said regime change is “the best thing that could happen”.

As the US launched missiles, he also called on “Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country”.

Iran’s political leadership has, however, remained largely the same under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei – the late ayatollah’s son.

Summers told Al Jazeera that the goal may have been “ad hoc” or improvised rather than well-planned. But “killing leaders does not mean strategic achievements, even if it’s a tactical success,” Saleh said.

Ending support for regional proxy groups

Iran’s “axis of resistance” is an umbrella comprising a number of armed groups around the region that it funds. This includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and several smaller groups in Iraq and Syria.

There are no signs that Tehran’s support for them has ended, and this demand did not appear in the MoU signed by the US.

Hezbollah went to war with Israel in Iran’s defence, and Iran has refused to negotiate an end to the war unless the Lebanon front is included. The Houthis, meanwhile, have launched a blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, partly in support of Iran.

Iran’s ballistic missiles programme

Washington swore it would “raze” Iran’s missile facilities to the ground when it launched the war on February 28. The US also pledged to destroy Iran’s navy.

Trump has since claimed that about 82 percent of Iran’s missiles are gone and the navy is degraded.

In April, he also said that 158 Iranian naval vessels had been hit, while US Central Command (CENTCOM) has continued to announce dozens of strikes on command centres of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iran, however, has continued to fire missiles, most recently launching a long-range missile in July that killed three US soldiers in Jordan.

Furthermore, the demand for an end to Iran’s ballistic missiles programme was also absent from the July MoU.

Control of Iranian oil

In June, Trump said the US would seize and control Iran’s Kharg island, the heart of Iranian oil production.

To date, the US does not control any Iranian territory.

What have the US and Iran gained and lost during the war?

Besides the US demands at the start of the war, several other pressure points have emerged during the conflict.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz

Soon after the war began, Iran in effect closed the narrow but critical Strait of Hormuz, which passes through its territorial waters as well as those of Oman. Since then, shipping traffic has slumped from more than 100 ships per day to an average of about five.

To enforce this closure, Iran began striking vessels in the strait, the only route to the open ocean for Gulf oil and gas producers, which had not gained its explicit permission to pass through.

The US responded with its own naval blockade on Iranian ports in and around the strait. This is continuing.

Despite a large number of expletive-laden demands from Trump since then – many of them on social media – that Tehran reopen the strait, Iran has not budged. It is currently negotiating plans for the future of the waterway, through which more than one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies were shipped before the war, with Oman.

As part of these negotiations, Iran announced this week that it has agreed to a shipping route, which it will partially control, with Oman.

While Trump has recently claimed that the US has “full control” of the strait and that it is open to vessels, shipping remains at an all-time low and Iran has continued to fire at any vessels trying to pass without its permission.

Iran sees the strait as its main piece of leverage in the war with the US, which Salah said, Iran views as an “existential threat”.

Economic impact

• Iran: The war’s impact on Iran’s economy has been severe. The Iranian rial has in effect collapsed. Food prices have surged amid the war, and the US blockade and renewed sanctions have hampered Iranian oil exports, with the blockade cutting oil revenue by at least $6bn. Tehran’s economy has long been battered by US sanctions, although the fragile ceasefire provided temporary relief. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last week that economic pressure is a “rerun we know by heart” and that the country knows how to survive it.
• US: US consumers have also felt the pressure of the war at the petrol pump, making the conflict highly unpopular. A July poll by The Associated Press revealed that two-thirds of Americans are against the conflict. While many tend to forget there’s a war, Summers said, they do remember it acutely when petrol prices rise. In states like California, gasoline prices doubled. That anger will likely translate into a political backlash against Republicans in November’s midterms, experts say.

Relations with allies

• Iran: Iran’s targeting of US military assets as well as both military and nonmilitary infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and Jordan has not made it popular regionally, experts note. Iran has hit infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. Those states have called this a violation of their sovereignty. However, Iran’s economic and political ties with China have held, as Beijing has managed a delicate dance by advocating against sanctions on Iran while refraining from becoming fully entangled in the conflict. Trade relations with Russia also remain strong.
• US: The US has faced reluctance from its NATO allies to back it up in this war. Despite being asked directly by Trump, they have refused to join the war. Spain and Italy, in particular, have highly criticised the conflict, while Germany, Israel’s strongest ally in Europe, has done the same. France rejected calls to send warships to enforce the blockade. Gulf allies, Pakistan and Turkiye have all similarly refused, while in Asia, Japan, Australia and South Korea all declined to get involved. Gulf allies are also likely weighing the fact that it is the US’s war on Iran which has caused them to become targets.

Military capabilities

• Iran: US experts say that claims Washington has degraded Iran’s military capabilities are correct. Several army bases have been struck while Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles are down by about 82 percent, according to Trump. However, Iran is still launching missiles and, while nuclear facilities have been damaged, it still has possession of its enriched uranium stockpile. Experts point out that Iran likely has a bigger appetite for an atomic weapon now than before the war began. Tehran has also continued to produce and deploy its mass-produced, cheap Shahed drones. An estimated 1,221 military personnel were killed by April, although the real toll is likely higher.
• US: The US has lost 18 soldiers and more than 750 have been wounded. That’s “quite low”, Summers said. However, US media reports suggest the Pentagon has severely depleted stockpiles of some of its most powerful and most expensive weapons – particularly its Patriot defence missiles – something Washington denies. Those missiles are only produced in the dozens annually and cost millions of dollars each. In August, the US signed a $22.9bn deal with manufacturer Raytheon to boost Tomahawk cruise missile production from 60 to more than 1,000 annually.

Is there an outright ‘victor’?

Observers say there is not.

“Both of them have not achieved anything,” Saleh of ANU said, noting that the US has failed to translate military superiority to actual gains despite being a “superpower” fighting a “middle power”.

China and Russia are likely observing Washington’s weaknesses, making new military calculations in the event of a future conflict with the US, he said. That has implications for Taiwan, especially as the US has now deployed its last aircraft carrier in the Pacific to the Middle East. The shift leaves the US without an aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific, despite Washington’s previous strategic emphasis on the region.

“Iran surviving also does not mean it’s a winner,” however, Saleh said. “This might be a defeat for the US, but it’s not a victory for Iran either.”

The season of Honey Deuce cocktails at Flushing Meadows is upon us as the 2026 US Open main draw gets under way in New York this Sunday.

This year’s fourth and final Grand Slam will feature some of the biggest names in tennis and breakout players on the up and up, although there will also be some notable injured absentees.

The mixed doubles title has already been claimed by Czech pair Karolina Muchova and Jakub Mensik on Wednesday night after defeating Switzerland’s Belinda Bencic and Italy’s Flavio Cobolli.

Here’s everything you need to know about the US Open main draw:

Where and when is the US Open?

All the main draw action from August 30 until September 13 is at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, just outside New York City.

The men’s and women’s quarterfinals begin on September 8 , followed by:

Women’s singles semifinals: September 10

Men’s singles semifinals: September 11

Women’s final: September 12

Men’s final: September 13

Who are the top seeds?

Women’s singles: 

1. Aryna Sabalenka
2. Elina Rybakina
3. Jessica Pegula
4. Coco Gauff
5. Mirra Andreeva
6. Karolina Muchova
7. Linda Noskova
8. Iga Swiatek
9. Amanda Anisimova
10. Elina Svitolina

Men’s singles: 

1. Alexander Zverev
2. Carlos Alcaraz
3. Felix Auger-Aliassime
4. Alex de Minaur
5. Ben Shelton
6. Novak Djokovic
7. Daniil Medvedev
8. Flavio Cobolli
9. Taylor Fritz
10. Alexander Bublik

What are some major storylines?

• Top-ranked Jannik Sinner withdraws: The World number one said he was “very sad and disappointed” to withdraw from after being unable to recover from a right knee injury that has sidelined him since winning the Wimbledon title. The Italian pulled out of hard-court tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati that serve as a warm-up for the US Open.
• Carlos Alcaraz back in action: The Spaniard will look to defend his title after a four-month hiatus from tennis due to a wrist injury, but Sinner’s absence means the crowd will not see the beloved “Sincaraz” rivalry this time.
• Serena Williams, Alcaraz pair up for iconic mixed doubles duo: Two generational greats teamed up for this year’s mixed doubles, although their star power faded as they fell to Cobolli and Bencic in the quarterfinal.
• Serena and Venus Williams receive doubles wildcard: The 23-time Grand Slam champion received a women’s doubles wildcard alongside older sister Venus. They have played together at the US Open nine times, winning in 1999 and 2009. Venus also received a wildcard for the women’s singles.
• 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka handed last-minute wildcard: The former world number three was left off the initial list of wildcard entries in his farewell season, but was handed the entry on Wednesday after several days of outcry from fans over his exclusion.
• Teen sensation Moise Kouame makes US Open debut: The 17-year-old made history at this year’s French Open when he became the youngest male Grand Slam winner in 17 years. However, the Frenchman’s US Open debut ended in the qualifying round after defeat to Nishesh Basavareddy of the US.
• Novak Djokovic continues pursuit of elusive 25th slam: The world number five Djokovic has been in relentless pursuit of a record 25th Slam title since winning his 24th at the US Open in 2023. The Serbian’s ambition has repeatedly been tested by age as the 39-year-old struggled with stifling humidity at this month’s Cincinnati Open. Still, he reached the Australian Open final this year as well as the Wimbledon semifinal.

Is Roger Federer making a comeback?

No. The 45-year-old Swiss icon categorically ruled out a Williams-esque return.

His brief on-court appearance in New York this week was for primetime exhibition matches ahead of a trip to Newport, Rhode Island to be enshrined in the International Tennis Hall of Fame on Saturday.

Who’s likely to lift the trophy?

With Sinner out of contention, Alcaraz has a clear shot at his title defence for a third US Open win.

Wimbledon champion and top seed Alexander Zverev will also be looking to carry momentum from his maiden Slam win in June, although the German was knocked out in the fourth round at last week’s Cincinnati Open.

Arthur Fils, seeded 23rd, could be a surprise contender in the final four after the Frenchman defeated American Frances Tiafoe to clinch his maiden Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati last week.

Over on the women’s side, Gauff will look to defeat top-ranked Sabalenka for a repeat of her maiden US Open title in 2023, although the Belarusian will be eyeing a third consecutive win in New York.

That being said, the 28-year-old has faltered this season after a fourth round defeat in Cincinnati, the Toronto Masters, Wimbledon and a quarterfinal exit at Roland Garros.

World number two Rybakina is hot on Sabalenka’s heels for the top spot with 8,141 points to Sabalenka’s 8,575.

At 32, Jessica Pegula is the oldest top 10 player, but has been a finalist and semifinalist in the past two years and will look to continue that on home soil this year too.

Russian teenager Andreeva bagged her maiden Slam title at the French Open this summer and sits at a career-high world number five, although a fourth round appearance in New York will be her deepest at the US Open.

Alex Eala of the Philippines will be a force to watch after the 21-year-old found her breakthrough with a maiden WTA title this month at the Washington Open.

She received a wildcard for the US Open mixed doubles with Auger-Aliassime, although the duo fell in the first round to husband-and-wife duo of Gael Monfils and Svitolina.

Eala will headline the Stars of the Open exhibition event at Arthur Ashe on Thursday alongside young players Joao Fonseca, Iva Jovic and Learner Tien.

What’s the prize money this year?

A record $108m prize pot is up for grabs this time:

Singles

Winner: $5.5m
Finalist: $2.8m
Semi-finalist: $1.45m
Quarter-finalist: $780,000
Round of 16: $480,000
Round of 32: $290,000
Round of 64: $190,000
Round of 128: $140,000
Qualifying Round of 32: $66,000
Qualifying Round of 64: $48,000
Qualifying Round of 128: $32,000

Doubles ($ per pair)

Winner: $1m
Finalist: $500,000
Semi-finalist: $250,000
Quarter-finalist: $125,000
Round of 16: $75,000
Round of 32: $45,000
Round of 64: $30,000

Who are some notable absences this year?

Alongside Sinner, Brazil’s Fonseca (ATP 26th ranking) and Briton Jack Draper (ATP 141st ranking) will be absent from the men’s side.

Emma Raducanu of Britain, world number 15 Victoria Mboko of Canada and Hailey Baptiste of the US, ranked 34rd, are other big names who won’t be in action.

London, United Kingdom – Sulaiman and Kasim Khan have not heard their father’s voice in almost six months.

The last time they spoke to Imran Khan, the imprisoned former prime minister of Pakistan and cricket legend, was over Eid al-Fitr in March. The call lasted 20 minutes.

“We don’t know how much time we have to speak,” Kasim, 27, told Al Jazeera in London. “Usually it’s around the 20-minute mark. He frantically asks about our lives and gives us advice. But when we ask about him, he very quickly shuts it down. He doesn’t seem to want to talk too much about how he is.

“You know, it is what it is,” Kasim recalled him saying.

Three years have passed since Khan, 73, was imprisoned in Rawalpindi’s Adiala Jail. He has faced more than 100 legal cases since his 2022 ouster in a vote of no confidence, including charges of bribery, leaking state secrets and illegally selling state gifts. He denies all of the accusations against him.

All of his convictions but one have been suspended or overturned, with appeals pending.

Khan’s family and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party believe the charges are politically motivated.

Two of his sisters, Uzma and Noreen, were recently allowed to see him. They said it was the first visit they had had in months.

“They were both quite disturbed by how agitated he was. He’s been mentally tortured with this solitary confinement,” Sulaiman, 29, said.

“His heart rate spikes considerably in his cell. He’s having palpitations due to severe anxiety,” said Kasim. “He’s the most calm, mentally strong person I’ve ever known by a considerable margin. To hear he’s facing anxiety, it’s unfathomable.”

Khan’s lawyers reported in February that he had lost 85 percent of the vision in his right eye.

“He was still wearing an eye patch when he saw our aunt the other day,” Sulaiman said. “For 10 months he wasn’t allowed any visitors. Apart from that brief visit from his sisters, none of the other orders have been followed.”

Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, in a statement sent to Al Jazeera, rejected the family’s allegations, that Khan has been denied appropriate medical care “or that the government failed to comply with the directions of the Honourable Supreme Court regarding his medical examination”.

“Health matters” should not be politicised, the statement continued, adding that the government “has never adopted a disrespectful attitude towards anyone’s health”.

On August 18, a three-judge Supreme Court bench ruled that Khan be moved to the private Shifa International Hospital within two days, that he be granted weekly family visits and twice-weekly calls with his sons, and ordered that his personal physician and sister, both doctors, be allowed to take part in his medical care. Earlier, a cardiac board review found Khan had fluctuating blood pressure and anxiety, attributed to limited contact with his family.

But he was instead taken to a government hospital, PIMS, for a brief check-up before returning to jail on August 20. Khan’s party has since filed a contempt petition.

“These government doctors are essentially told what to say,” said Sulaiman. “We want him independently checked, so we have proof. What are they hiding?”

“The establishment currently has absolute power. Any efforts by the Supreme Court seem ineffective,” said Kasim. “We’re just trying to make as much noise as possible.”

The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said reports of Khan’s ill health were “not supported by prison or medical records”.

It said Khan has undergone 30 medical examinations since his imprisonment began “in addition to regular examinations by the prison doctor” and that doctors had recently concluded that he appears “oriented, stable and without any recorded acute or unmanaged deterioration”.

Support from the UN to cricketers

Support for Khan’s release has come from the United Nations, Amnesty International, politicians in Washington and London, and 21 former cricket captains.

“We’re hoping the UK could make a difference,” said Kasim. “Our father lived here a long time, and he’s always spoken very highly of England.”

Their mother, Khan’s ex-wife Jemima Goldsmith, has called on Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband for help, saying Khan has “endured three years of solitary confinement” in what has become a “human rights emergency”.

She said that their sons, who are British citizens, have been denied visas and warned they risked arrest if they travelled to see Khan, calling the situation “a human-rights emergency.”

Khan’s sons last met him in November 2022 after an attempted assassination on his life.

“We have plans, but we can’t disclose exactly what they are, because anything we say publicly is often very quickly intercepted by those in Pakistan,” Kasim said.

“Now is the toughest time, the bleakest it’s looked. But at least there’s more attention now,” Sulaiman added. “We’re lucky to have good friends and a strong family unit who keep us sane.”

The Pakistani ministry also denied claims that Khan has been isolated or denied contact, saying, “Records show approximately 198 interview sessions involving more than 900 visitor entries. These include his sisters, family members, lawyers, doctors, political representatives and other approved visitors.”

It described his prison conditions as humane, saying the facilities allow for “sleeping, sanitation and exercise”.

“He receives separately prepared meals, including meat, chicken, fruit, milk, nuts, juices and bottled water,” it said. “At the same time, access to a prisoner cannot be used as a platform for unrestricted political communication or political activity from inside prison.”

Khan had kept his sons out of the limelight and neither sought a life in front of the cameras.

Kasim said he holds the government responsible for their father’s deteriorating health.

“Where is the humanity in not allowing someone to receive basic health checks or treatment? It’s the pettiness, the petty torture techniques, not allowing him to have books, phone calls with his children, keeping him for 23 hours in an isolated cell,” he asks.

“If they reject any claims of mistreatment, prove it. Bring him to an unbiased doctor and hospital, and show the medical reports. It puts our minds at ease, and shows the people of Pakistan that their elected leader is healthy.”

But he continues to believe in his father’s strength.

“If there’s hope that anyone can remain resilient through this period, it’s him, even though it’s so brutal in these conditions,” said the younger brother.

Nepal and China have paused rescue efforts for survivors of the devastating flash flood that hit the border region two days ago as a “barrier lake” formed during the disaster began to overflow.

Chinese rescue teams and vehicles were forced to pull back to safe ground, state broadcaster CCTV reported, as the risk of the lake bursting rose. Nepalese authorities also paused search operations for 90 minutes, an army officer confirmed.

The “barrier lake”, formed as Wednesday’s flash flood carried huge volumes of mud and debris down a steep valley, is threatening to unleash another huge and destructive wave.

In Nepal’s Rasuwa district, on the border with Tibet, residents were seen scrambling up hillsides to escape potential surges in the river level, according to the Reuters news agency.

The disaster unfolded as a glacier collapsed and sent a huge torrent of ice, water, rock, and mud down Himalayan river valleys, burying entire villages and destroying roads, bridges, and hydropower plants.

In its wake, leftover debris trapped water to form a barrier lake, a natural dam created when landslides block a river.

With water continuing to pour into the lake, the threat to downstream communities of another wave of flooding is rising.

China has deployed an engineering team to conduct aerial surveys and 3D modelling of the site. By Friday, the lake’s volume had swelled to more than 2.5 million cubic metres, up from the estimated 1.5 to 2 million cubic metres recorded just a day earlier.

Downstream in Nepal, officials received warnings that the lake had begun breaking its bank, according to Narendra Pariyar, the top administrator in the hard-hit Rasuwa district.

“We can see that the level of water in the river is rising,” he said, adding that the exact height of the surge remains unclear.

Relief supplies blocked

The death toll from the disaster has surpassed 470. On Friday, the Nepalese prime minister’s office reported 469 confirmed deaths, with 977 people still missing. About 1,550 people have been rescued.

Chinese authorities reported on Friday that the death toll in Tibet has now risen to at least five, with 558 missing.

Bishal Nath Upreti, president of the Nepal Centre for Disaster Management, told Al Jazeera that conditions are “extremely difficult” for those trapped in the disaster zone, as destroyed roads have left them completely cut off.

So far, about 800 people have been rescued by helicopter and 700 by land, with airlifts delivering vital aid to survivors.

Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, reporting from Beijing, said the number of missing is expected to rise. China has deployed about 500 military and paramilitary personnel and sent Premier Li Qiang to supervise operations on the ground, while Nepal has deployed 30,000 security personnel to search remote, cut-off valleys, she said.

More ⁠than ⁠90,000 people are estimated to have been affected ⁠by disaster, the ⁠Red Cross said on Friday, adding that the delivery of relief supplies has been blocked by the overflowing lake.

“We’re of course very concerned about the secondary flood,” said David Fisher, head of delegation ⁠for the International Federation ⁠of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in ⁠Nepal.

The administration of former US President, Joe Biden, knowingly allowed Israel’s genocide in Gaza to continue long after it had lost any clear military objective, with senior officials in Washington privately admitting it amounted to “killing and destroying for the sake of killing and destroying”. This damning assessment, along with revelations of political manipulation, diplomatic cover-ups and sabotaged peace efforts, comes from a bombshell investigation aired by Israel’s Channel 13. Details of the investigation have been translated by Drop Site News and shared on X.

The Biden administration allowed Israel unprecedented leeway to carry out its military offensive, despite the enormous death and devastation it inflicted on Gaza. Former Israeli ambassador, Michael Herzog, made a startling admission about Biden’s support: “God did the State of Israel a favour that Biden was the president during this period. We fought [in Gaza] for over a year and the administration never came to us and said, ‘ceasefire now.’ It never did. And that’s not to be taken for granted.” His remarks encapsulated a broader sentiment that the White House gave Benjamin Netanyahu all the political space he needed to execute the military offensive, which has claimed the lives of more than 52,000 Palestinians, mainly women and children.

READ: ICC judges order prosecutor to keep arrest warrant requests confidential in Gaza probes

The investigation, which included interviews with nine current and former US officials, reveals a deeply troubling portrait of US complicity in Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Former national security aide, Ilan Goldenberg, stated that the war amounted to “killing and destroying for the sake of killing and destroying”, with no viable political alternative ever established. Despite the White House’s public messaging about restraining Israel, the internal consensus appeared to be that the administration had no intention of exerting real pressure on the Occupation state.

The Biden administration also shielded Israel from allegations of war crimes, prompting a major backlash from staffers in the State Department. Lawyer Stacy Gilbert, for example, resigned in protest after being excluded from a key report that falsely claimed Israel had not violated US arms laws. Gilbert described the report as “shocking in its mendacity”, pointing out that aid obstruction and settler attacks were well documented, yet ignored. Meanwhile, Washington continued to certify Israeli compliance with US law, ensuring the uninterrupted flow of weapons.

The investigation also revealed that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, deliberately sabotaged hostage negotiations in order to prevent a ceasefire. US officials confirmed that Netanyahu tanked talks out of fear that a deal would compel him to halt the war.

Despite public backlash, Biden’s private approach remained deferential. Even after reportedly telling Netanyahu he was “full of shit” and hanging up mid-call, Biden ultimately maintained support. After briefly halting a shipment of 2,000-lb bombs due to concerns about their use in densely populated areas of Gaza, Netanyahu publicly accused Washington of broader arms delays. Biden, rather than escalating pressure, resumed the shipment process shortly thereafter.

The Channel 13 exposé further confirms that Biden’s reluctance to push Israel was deeply tied to a failed diplomatic initiative with Saudi Arabia. A landmark normalisation deal was in sight, but it required Israeli recognition of Palestinian statehood. These were flatly rejected by Netanyahu’s far-right coalition. Former US ambassador, Jack Lew, said he found Israel’s refusal “shocking”, while Amos Hochstein expressed disbelief that such a strategic opportunity was squandered. Sources confirmed that Netanyahu deliberately stalled negotiations in hopes that President Trump would return to office and claim the diplomatic win for himself.

These revelations lend significant weight to long-standing accusations that the Biden administration has not only provided diplomatic cover for Israel’s propaganda by repeating lies, but also actively enabled what many view as a campaign of ethnic cleansing. Critics note that Biden himself amplified false Israeli claims, such as the widely discredited allegations of Hamas beheading babies, rhetoric that helped to dehumanise a population in order to carry out genocide.

OPINION: Advisory opinions will not stop genocide

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

The U.S. Army is calling for new potential options for replacing the venerable Stinger short-range heat-seeking surface-to-air missile. The service has already been funding work on two competing designs from Lockheed Martin and Raytheon under its Next-Generation Short-Range Interceptor (NGSRI) program since 2023. The Army is currently aiming to buy 11,000 NGSRI missiles, as well as 2,200 new man-portable launchers, starting in Fiscal Year 2028.

The Army put out a contracting notice regarding what it is calling the NGSRI Alternate Interceptor Demonstration (AID) yesterday. The service is looking to hold an industry day event regarding its plans for the AID at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama next month.

“The Army is seeking to identify additional potential sources to fulfill the NGSRI requirements,” the notice explains. “The Army plans to conduct a demonstration in the Spring 2027 timeframe. A successful demonstration by an offeror may lead to an award for missile procurement.”

“The current NGSRI program was initiated to meet the Department of the Army requirement for Maneuver Short Range Air Defense (M-SHORAD) surface to air missile systems to replace the legacy FIM-92 Stinger man-portable air defense system,” the notice adds. “The NGSRI is a high performance, soldier portable, fire and forget, surface to air missile system capable of defeating rotary wing, fixed wing, and Group 2/3 Unmanned Aircraft System threats.”

In U.S. military parlance, Group 2 covers drones with gross weights between 21 and 55 pounds, that can fly up to altitudes of 3,500 feet, and hit top speeds of up to 250 knots. Group 3, the next tier up, is a far broader category that encompasses uncrewed aerial systems weighing anywhere between 55 and 1,320 pounds, with operational ceilings between 3,500 and 18,000 feet, and with top speeds between 100 and 250 knots.

The Iranian-designed Shahed-136 one-way-attack drone is, by far, the best-known example of a Group 3 design, and one that encapsulates the importance of addressing threats in that particular category. Development of kamikaze drones in the Group 2 tier has also been surging globally, including in the United States. Both categories do also include drones configured for surveillance and reconnaissance and other missions.

It is also worth noting here that the Stinger has received upgrades in recent years to improve its effectiveness against drones. You can read more about that missile’s evolution since it was first introduced in the 1970s here.

Stinger missiles with proximity fuzes destroy UAVs

“The NGSRI missile is backwards compatible with the legacy Stinger missile platforms such as SGT STOUT and Marine Corps Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS),” yesterday’s contracting notice also stresses. This has been a key requirement since the program started.

Sgt. Stout is the name given to an air defense system in Army service today that is based on the 8×8 Stryker light armored vehicle. The Sgt. Stout has a turret that can be fitted with up to two four-round launchers for Stingers. Those launchers can also be swapped out for ones that can be loaded with a pair of millimeter-wave radar-guided AGM-114L Hellfire missiles. The turret also has a 30mm XM914 automatic cannon, which can fire proximity-fuzed airbursting rounds against drones and other aerial threats, and a 7.62x51mm M240B machine gun.

The four-round Stinger launchers used on the Sgt. Stout are the same ones found on the older Humvee-based Avenger air defense systems, which are in increasingly limited use in the U.S. Army and Marine Corps. Army Avengers were recently in the news after images emerged showing them protecting President Donald Trump at his golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey.

In its current form, the Marine Corps’ MADIS consists of two 4×4 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV) in different configurations. One is armed with Stinger missiles, as well as an XM914 cannon and M240 machine gun, all mounted on a single remote weapon station. The other has the same type of remote weapon station, but without Stingers, and also has added electronic warfare, electronic support measures, and sensor capabilities.

Stinger is still perhaps best known in its shoulder-fired form, also known as the Man-Portable Air Defense System (MANPADS) configuration, as seen in pictures earlier in this piece. The Army has already been pursuing new individual launchers, or Control Launch Assemblies (CLA), for use with existing Stingers, which could also be used with future NGSRI missiles. Lockheed Martin has publicly put forward a new CLA design as part of its NGSRI proposal, which is called QuadStar, as seen in the video below.

Whether or not the newly announced AID plans reflect any major issues with the existing NGSRI competition is unknown. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have announced the successful passage of major milestones in work on their respective designs at separate points this year. Raytheon is also the current prime contractor for the Stinger.

Stinger is also in widespread service globally. Any replacement the U.S. military might adopt, especially one that is backwards compatible with existing launchers, could easily translate to interest from foreign armed forces. The ongoing war in Ukraine and other conflicts in recent years have contributed to a new surge in demand for MANPADS worldwide, including to help counter growing drone threats.

The U.S. military has been putting new emphasis on diversifying supplier bases and greater government control of intellectual property rights, especially for munitions, in recent years. This is a general focus area that has grown even more since President Trump’s second term began last year. Officials have been open about their desire to reduce reliance on traditional prime contractors and bring in more smaller and non-traditional firms, even for very high-profile weapon system programs. These efforts reflect a particular push to avoid so-called ‘vendor lock’ and promote greater competition, which can also offer benefits when it comes to cost and scaling production.

When it comes to NGSRI, as mentioned, the Army is looking to buy thousands of these missiles, as well as individual launchers, in the coming years. A new demonstration next year would also not preclude the service from ultimately ordering NGSRIs from either Lockheed Martin or Raytheon.

With plans to start production of the selected NGSRI design in Fiscal Year 2028, which starts on October 1 of next year, the Army will need to make a decision about how to proceed with NGSRI relatively soon.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Court order rules that Pentagon acted illegally, punishing AI company for criticism of government.

A United States judge has blocked the Pentagon’s blacklisting of technology company Anthropic.

In a 59-page written order issued on Thursday night, District Judge Rita Lin ruled that the Department of Defense had acted illegally when it designated the company a supply chain risk to national security.

The decision marks the latest turn in the Claude maker’s high-stakes fight with the US military over artificial intelligence safety on the battlefield. The government is expected to fight the ruling.

The judge’s order rebuked the Pentagon, saying it had targeted and punished Anthropic for the company’s public criticism of the Defense Department’s stance on AI deployment on the battlefield.

“The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics,” Lin, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, wrote.

Autonomous weapons and domestic surveillance

Anthropic’s lawsuit in a California federal court alleges that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth overstepped his authority when he designated the company a national security supply-chain risk.

Hegseth’s move, which blocked Anthropic from military contracts, followed the company’s refusal to allow the military to use its Claude AI models for US surveillance or autonomous weapons.

Anthropic argues that AI models are not reliable enough for autonomous weapons and opposes domestic surveillance. The Pentagon maintains that private companies should not constrain military action.

Executives have said the ban could cost the company billions of dollars in lost business.

During a hearing on July 30, Lin described the government’s position as “really troubling” and “at odds … with the First Amendment”, adding that the record had “gotten worse for the government” over time.

In the same hearing, Department of Justice lawyers argued that the nature of AI models is “so staggeringly enormous and opaque” that the Pentagon cannot evaluate them like physical hardware.

First use of obscure statute

Anthropic welcomed the ruling, stating it remained “focused on working productively with the government to harness AI for our national security so all Americans benefit from this technology”.

The designation was the first time a US company has been publicly labelled a supply-chain risk under an obscure procurement statute aimed at protecting military systems from foreign sabotage.

In its lawsuit, Anthropic alleged the government violated its constitutional rights to free speech and due process by retaliating against its views on AI safety without allowing it to dispute the claim.

The lawsuit called the decision unlawful, unsupported by facts, and inconsistent with the military’s past praise of Claude.

There was no immediate comment from the Pentagon on the ruling.

The Iran war is settling into attrition, with no regime collapse and Gulf economies facing growing uncertainty

Analysts broadly agree the United States and Israel’s war on Iran will not see regime collapse in Tehran or a definite victory for Washington, but rather a dragged-out affair of stagnation and attrition.

The hope among the US leadership at the start of the war, which began after surprise Israeli and US attacks on February 28, was that mounting economic and military pressure on Iran would force a structural shift in Tehran. Six months on, it is clear this vision will not come about, and instead many are preparing for a protracted war and managed fallout.

Oil-dependent economies are still absorbing supply shocks after traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle of pre-war levels following Iran’s attacks on shipping and a US blockade on Iranian ports.

The US military is still entrenched in a region that remains its most militarised in years. Although the war’s intensity has lessened since a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed by Washington and Tehran in June, there is no sign it will conclude, leading to continued uncertainty about the future.

Existing tensions, such as those between the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, look only set to increase as the war drags on. The influence of rival powers, such as those of India and China, remains stalled rather than stopped, with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative having already established itself within the Middle East and North Africa. All in all, the region remains in flux where formal alliances with outside powers no longer guarantee safety.

The defence agreement between Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia recently signed in Mecca will likely be the first of many such military pacts agreed in the region.

“The war has just accelerated trends, but hasn’t really started anything that wasn’t already under way. The Gulf countries were already diversifying their economies,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. “Many were already looking at broadening their defence partnerships beyond existing US security guarantees, as well as increasing their own defence capability.”

Israel, for its part, is still pursuing its regional project of “paramountcy”, HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute said, despite its failure to bring Iran to its knees this year.

“There is no chance of the government in Tehran falling in the next six months,” Hellyer told Al Jazeera. “If everything were to theoretically stay the same … with just increased economic pressure, that could eventually cause a ripple effect that could lead to state collapse in Iran. But we’re talking years, not months, and everything is not likely to stay the same.”

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on regional cities have hindered Gulf states’ plans to use oil revenues as an engine to diversify their economies and build on their reputations as a safe haven to encourage investors.

Shipments of oil, derivative products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been repeatedly and severely disrupted since the US and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in February.

Transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which saw attacks on shipping by the Houthis during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, became even more hazardous in July, when the Iran-allied Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

“The price of oil has increased broadly in line with the Gulf states’ difficulties in exporting it,” John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Gulf Research Center, told Al Jazeera. “Is this going to go for six months? Is it going to go on for longer?”

Exacerbating the Gulf states’ difficulties is that, although the price of oil has risen, so has inflation. In addition to the economic difficulties the war has created, there is also growing pressure for Gulf states to invest more in defence.

For now, the majority of the states caught in the middle will look at ways of living with the turmoil and managing the consequences.

Venezuelan popular artist Luis Mariano Rivera was born on August 19, 1906. His music is a tribute to life and a commitment to his community’s identity and cultural sovereignty. Rivera’s works remind us that when a people sow their land and tell their stories, they become resistant to oppression and invincible against foreign domination.

A brief and affectionate profile

In the fertile and sunny lands of eastern Venezuela, specifically in the lush village of Canchunchú in Bermúdez Municipality, Sucre State, Luis Mariano Rivera was born on August 19, 1906, 120 years ago. His life was shaped by the rural realities of this area, which combined the abundance of nature with the profound inequalities of a latifundista-dominated agrarian economy.

His childhood was marked by early orphanhood and farm labor. Far from leading to resentment or resignation, this experience shaped in Rivera a loving and vital sensibility that allowed him to dismantle traditional notions of property and patriarchal-landowner hierarchy, enabling him to identify with the land, plants, and animals that surrounded him. This connection to the land enriched his imagination, and his extended family ultimately came to encompass the entire territory.

Rivera’s creative work blossomed after he turned 48. A self-taught musician, poet, and playwright, he composed his first verses using the Venezuelan four-stringed cuatro guitar as his primary instrument. His artistic output became an act of defiance that placed elements dismissed by the dominant culture at the center of Venezuelan poetry: local biodiversity, manual labor, trees, fruits, and wildlife.

Through his popular theater plays and musical compositions, Rivera portrayed a cosmogony in which nature is not merely a resource to be exploited, but a subject with rights to be loved and respected.

Although he never joined any political party nor sought public office, his approach to life and art constitutes a profound political statement. In a Caribbean and Venezuelan context where the neocolonial oil rentier model displaced agricultural production and fueled the exodus from the countryside to the city, Rivera’s insistence on staying in Canchunchú and singing about rural life was a clear act of resistance.

His politics were rooted in pacifism, fraternity, and love for the land. In the face of the metastasizing commodification of life, he prioritized the ethics of care, respect for natural cycles, and community solidarity. Various artists of national and international renown, including Alí Primera, Lilia Vera, Cecilia Todd, Soledad Bravo, Gualberto Ibarreto, and Morella Muñoz, performed his songs, transforming his local message into a banner of continental identity. Alí Primera, in particular, saw Rivera as a beacon of popular dignity, celebrating his ability to transform everyday rural life into revolutionary and loving poetry.

Luis Mariano Rivera passed away on March 15, 2002, in Carúpano, Sucre State, at the age of 95, after nearly a century devoted to cultivating the poetry of life, simplicity, and affection. His legacy is recognized as a symbol of the musical identity that flows directly from the harmonious relationship with the land and the wisdom of the people.

Sound, memory, and collective identity

In many of the ancestral cultures of Abya Yala, sound is part of the creation myth of the women and men who originally inhabited these territories. For all of humanity, sounds have played an important role in the formation of identities. Languages and music stem from this very relationship and our need to connect, to name ourselves, and to determine our own destinies.

Every landscape has its own sonority. In other words, a set of sounds that form its geohistory. This includes our ways of speaking and our music, but also the sounds of the wind, the rain, the sea, the river, birds, insects. In short, all the sounds of life expressing itself, as well as the sounds of human inventions that are now part of our daily lives.

Within this spectrum, there are human beings who manage to connect the sounds of past, present, and future memories to bequeath a sonic identity that transcends the purely artistic realm, becoming the very landscape narrated in their poetry. Luis Mariano Rivera is an example of this transcendental audacity to place oneself beyond time with a unique music.

At the age of 48, driven by the desire to express himself without relying on others to write his letters and thoughts, he taught himself to read and write. Already in his mature years, he began composing verses, parrandas, merengues, and eastern joropos through which he paid tribute to the flora, fauna, and everyday life of his village.

Rivera’s remarkable sensitivity stems from his direct observation of the countryside. His lyrics preserve idioms, sayings, and oral expressions from eastern Venezuela that would otherwise have been lost. Long before the rise of globalized environmental movements, his songs already championed the balance between humans, wildlife, and flora from a local, community-based, and decolonizing perspective. Rivera’s legacy transcends mere musical composition; he represents a defense of communal life and a living example of how it is possible to reclaim one’s own history to create sounds that cement collective identity.

For him, Canchunchú was not merely a geographical reference point, but the center of the world. By singing about his village and embracing rural daily life as a symbol of belonging with a claim to universality, he created an affective geohistory that recognized the dignity of life as equivalent to that of the cherry, the guácara [snail], and the mango. He showed to his community that their own reality is worthy of being celebrated and sung about. As such, his work did not stem from ego. It was born out of the village’s celebrations and gatherings, and like collective knowledge, it has no other purpose than enjoyment and the strengthening of collective unity.

Singing honestly about one’s own village, honoring the vernacular of one’s community without resorting to artificial language, taught us a sense of pride in our ways of feeling, understanding, and reasoning. 

Rivera’s music, paraphrasing Alí Primera, grounds us in our own land, with the profound simplicity of one who surrenders to the magnitude of the surrounding beauty. His deep connection to his native Canchunchú never served as chauvinistic isolation or picturesque folklorism. Rather, it was a gateway to the human condition prior to the violent irruption of Western capitalist modernity, with its imposition of individuality, the commodification of nature, and linear progress, at the expense of communal memory. Rivera’s work operates in the opposite direction: it reconnects with an organic body of knowledge that does not require academia to be legitimate, because it is engraved in the lived collective experience.

It is no secret to anyone that traditional community music, as well as rural poetry, serves as a means of transmitting memory. It is not mere entertainment. Rhythmic patterns, melodic turns, and poetic meter interact with the biological, agricultural, and communal cycles that humankind has cultivated for millennia.

Rivera did not theorize about nature: he embodied it. His philosophy sprang from working the land, from sweat, and from the sounds of the countryside. It is the knowledge transmitted through the body and emotion, that “communal way of life” that predates modernity and remains a reservoir from which to conceive alternatives to capitalism, fascism, imperialism, and Zionism.

True universality does not consist in erasing differences under a single mold with domineering hegemonic pretensions, but rather in reaching our very roots. When we reaffirm the dignity of our communities, we validate the “peripheries” as the center of our own worldviews without the need for external recognition.

Rivera demonstrates that the periphery is a center in and of itself by stripping away the pretensions of colonial modernity. His music taps into the common core of humanity: the wonder of being alive, communal solidarity, and respect for the sacred meaning of life. And this is not a nostalgic gaze toward the past, but rather a reservoir of meaning and hope for the present. It reminds us that beneath the veneer of modernity, the human species remains hardwired to come together, celebrate, and sustain communities.

Finally, Rivera’s production is above all an expression of love. Love toward the full life experience. But when a poet sings about love, it is usually limited to romantic love, or heartbreak in the absence of corresponding feelings. Nevertheless, Rivera did count on a “spiritual companion,” to use his own words: Maximina Marsella, known as La Negra Marsella and whom he affectionately called “la negra,” in what is a very common expression in Venezuela. She was presented as the only woman capable of understanding his silences and his late passion for words. He dedicated many love verses to her, expressing how they shared feelings and devotion for the small things in life and the land.

Writing our own history and cultural sovereignty

The act by which a dispossessed individual reclaims control over the written word is, in essence, an act of sociopolitical liberation. For Luis Mariano Rivera, the decision to learn to read and write on his own as an adult was not merely a matter of functional education or an attempt to conform to bourgeois standards. It represented taking control of his own narrative and a fundamental reaffirmation of his personal and communal sovereignty. In a system dominated by the colonialism of knowledge, where official writing has historically functioned as a mechanism of subordination and administrative control, mastering the alphabet from the campesino perspective means dismantling the monopoly on truth. Rivera lucidly understood that mastering the written code granted him the historical ability to cease being a passive subject, an object of study in folklorism, and become the chronicler and philosopher of his own time. He ceased to be narrated by others and assumed authorship of his territorial memory.

This literacy and poetic endeavor took place against a profoundly adverse historical backdrop. Throughout the twentieth century, Venezuela underwent a traumatic transformation driven by the emergence of the neocolonial oil enclave. Urban modernization advanced aggressively through its ideological and economic strategy of marginalizing the countryside, dismantling traditional community structures, and promoting rural depopulation in favor of slums in the major cities.

The extraction of hydrocarbons by transnational corporations tied to the geopolitical interests of US and European imperialism came alongside an overwhelming wave of cultural propaganda. This ideological penetration sought to impose the American consumerist lifestyle, eroding peasant identity and dismissing local agriculture as synonymous with backwardness and savagery. Venezuela, which was barely emerging from the devastating aftermath of the war of independence and successive nineteenth-century insurrections, revolutions, and civil wars stoked by local elites and foreign capital, saw its food sovereignty and historical memory shaken.

Amid this landscape of alienation, where the country was rapidly transforming into a consumerist, import-dependent enclave, Rivera’s insistence on remaining in his Canchunchú valley and singing about the communal way of life was not a nostalgic or folkloric retreat, but rather a deeply political and assertive affirmation of cultural re-existence.

He sang with such transparent and loving clarity that his powerful message took root in the national collective imagination, ethically reframing the traditions, sufferings, joys, and experiences of campesinos in eastern Venezuela. Against the aesthetics of waste and the logic of neocolonial dispossession, he countered with the ethics of care and the sacredness of everyday life. His compositions served as a mechanism for preserving historical memory: he warned against the collective amnesia regarding the communal way of life driven by the discourse of developmental modernity; he championed food sovereignty in the face of dependence on the globalizing market; he dignified rural labor in the face of urban prejudice, revealing the profound ecological philosophy inherent in popular knowledge. But, moreover, his profound poetic work demonstrates that true national sovereignty is more than just the defense of natural resources or borders. It requires the preservation of the collective soul, the dignity of the living word, and the self-determination of the people’s power.

Luis Mariano Rivera’s life journey teaches us that decolonization is not achieved solely through theoretical confrontation or bellicose rhetoric, but above all through an organic connection to the land and the community. By recognizing himself through his own voice, he prevented imperialist corporations and the oil industry’s maelstrom from erasing the humanity of his surroundings. His music endures as an indestructible testament to cultural sovereignty: living proof that a people who remember their roots, cultivate their land, and tell their own stories become resilient in the face of modern oppressions and invincible against any attempt at external domination.

Fabiola José is a Venezuelan singer. She has performed in countries across South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Her singles and albums are available on all digital platforms. She hosted and produced “Cantante y Sonante” for Radio Nacional de Venezuela. In 2018–2019, she created a series of videos for social media, published on her YouTube channel #HechoEnCasa. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Music from IUDEM, Caracas (2005); specialized under Maestro Tom Krause in Spain (2007); and an M.A. in Arts and Cultures of the South from UNEARTE, Venezuela (2020).

Fidel Barbarito is a Venezuelan musician and researcher, with a bachelor’s and master’s degrees in music and history, respectively. He teaches in the undergraduate and graduate programs at the National Experimental University of the Arts (UNEARTE). Together with Fabiola José, he promotes several musical projects aimed at disseminating traditional repertoires, integrating them with contemporary compositions inspired by these sounds. Joropo llanero. Parranda de reexistencia is one of his published essays.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.