MONEY

Published on
06/04/2026 – 15:51 GMT+2

With European markets reopening after the Easter holidays, investors are set to navigate a mix of geopolitical risks and crucial economic data that may shape sentiment over the coming week.

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Attention will focus on Iran’s response to US President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies. Any escalation or de-escalation could quickly affect energy markets, driving oil prices and inflation expectations.

J.P. Morgan noted on Thursday that oil prices could reach as high as $150 a barrel if supply disruptions persist until mid-May.

Beyond geopolitics, inflation data, central bank signals and corporate updates will also draw attention as markets gauge the outlook for the second quarter.

Economic data in focus

The macroeconomic calendar kicks off on Tuesday with the release of eurozone PMI data, a key leading indicator of economic activity. Recent readings have pointed to slowing growth in the bloc, with the composite PMI signalling only marginal expansion amid softening demand and heightened uncertainty.

On Wednesday, investors will examine the latest eurozone retail sales and industrial producer price figures from Eurostat. These will shed light on consumer demand and upstream inflation pressures.

The European data schedule remains relatively light but still significant. Euro area financial accounts will provide additional detail on lending trends, while UK markets stay attuned to labour market and growth signals following recent signs of stagnation.

Focus then shifts to the US, with the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday. These will be scrutinised for hints on policymakers’ views regarding the timing of any potential rate cuts.

Thursday brings key US labour data, including weekly jobless claims, offering further insight into employment conditions.

The week ends with the US consumer price index for March, including the closely watched core CPI reading. A stronger-than-expected figure could dampen hopes for policy easing and spark volatility in global markets, including Europe.

On the corporate side in Europe, activity is limited, although Raiffeisen Bank International’s annual general meeting on Thursday will be watched for any signals on banking sector health and regional credit conditions.

Published on 06/04/2026 – 9:46 GMT+2•Updated
9:56

OPEC+ members met virtually on Sunday and afterwards announced plans to hike crude quotas by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May as the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most important route for black gold, continues to face disruptions as a result of the US-Iran conflict.

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However, the modest rise agreed by the eight key producing countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — is not likely to bring down oil prices as it represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure. Moreover, the increase is more symbolic than material as the oil can’t be exported until the Strait of Hormuz opens.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026,” the group said in a statement.

The members’ statement also noted that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement also said.

Efforts to stabilise soaring oil prices

The latest statement from OPEC+ comes as oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, with Brent and US crude nearing $120 a barrel, driving up fuel costs and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan said in a note on Thursday that oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel if supply flows remain disrupted until mid-May.

US President Donald Trump has given Iran a deadline of Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz and has vowed to hit the country’s power plants and bridges otherwise.

European markets were closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.

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