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This article appears in the October issue of Global Finance Magazine.
U.S. banks are merging again as a rare combination of a friendlier regulatory environment, excess capital among the bigger players, and the rising cost of competing in artificial intelligence continues to drive broad industry consolidation.
S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that 81 banking deals were announced in the U.S. in the first half of 2026, the largest first-half tally since 2021.
The resurgence in banking mergers and acquisitions follows a regulatory shift that began in May 2025, when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency restored expedited review and a streamlined application process for the industry’s mergers. Two months later, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. rescinded its 2024 policy statement on bank mergers and returned to its earlier guidelines, broadening the regulatory overhaul.
The practical effect has been a shorter path from announcement to completion: Median deal time fell from 187 days in 2024 to 134 days in 2025 and 94 days so far this year, according to S&P Global.
Bankers responded with a series of deals, including Huntington Bancshares’ acquisitions of Veritex and Cadence Bank and PNC’s purchase of FirstBank. By the fourth quarter of 2025, bank deal value had reached $26.3 billion, the highest quarterly total since early 2019.
“If you are a bank looking ahead at succession planning or at the technology investments to compete as you get bigger, there is this window within this administration,” said Catherine Mealor, a Keefe, Bruyette & Woods managing director. “If you think you might want to sell within the next three or four years, you might as well go now. You can get it closed quickly.”
According to PwC research, five banking deals worth more than $5 billion were announced in the latest four-quarter period, pushing aggregate deal value to roughly the same level as the previous four quarters despite a lower volume of transactions.
The consolidation pressure is also coming from the capital side of the equation. Recent research by Bain & Co. found that 17 U.S. lenders each held more than $10 billion in excess capital at the end of June, with seven above $20 billion.
The same research also found that deals combining scale with new capabilities delivered total shareholder returns 14 to 18 percentage points above scale-only transactions over the past two years, as banks face rising costs to build and maintain technology and artificial intelligence capabilities.
That appetite for scale is visible in this year’s largest transactions. Santander’s $12.2 billion acquisition of Webster Financial created a $327 billion-asset bank, while Fifth Third’s $10.9 billion purchase of Comerica produced the ninth-largest U.S. bank. Pinnacle Financial Partners’ merger with Synovus created another institution with more than $120 billion in assets.
Sellers, though, may not agree with buyers regarding a franchise’s worth. The median price paid for a bank seller is about 141% of tangible book value, according to Piper Sandler, while 68% of banks surveyed by Bank Director say they would require at least 175% to sell.
Thomas Monteiro is a contributing writer based in Spain.
The post U.S. Banks’ Urge to Merge appeared first on Global Finance Magazine.
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An unusual blast of warm weather across the U.S. Midwest and Mid-Atlantic has coincided with the middle of PJM Interconnection’s fall maintenance season, which prompted the Department of Energy to issue an emergency order for the October 13-16 period
Fuel prices flared again in September, driving a sharp rise in headline consumer inflation even as everyday expenses like food, cars and healthcare remained relatively calm.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index accelerated to +0.6% M/M in September from the
As ships bypass the Red Sea, increased traffic around the Cape of Good Hope could benefit African economies.
The ongoing conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by the Houthis, a Yemen-based militant group, in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have forced many shipping companies to explore alternative routes around Africa. While the financial and operational costs are significant, the shift presents new economic opportunities for African countries, particularly those positioned to serve the growing volume of maritime traffic.
The main detour causes international shippers to bypass the Red Sea and the Suez Canal corridor, traveling around the southern tip of Africa past the Cape of Good Hope. This longer route can add up to two weeks to a trip from Europe to Asia, increasing energy and shipping costs.
The Cape of Good Hope was already one of the world’s busiest sea routes before recent developments, driven by the conflict with Iran that began in February 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) World Oil Transit Chokepoint Report, released in March 2026, approximately 9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass around the Cape of Good Hope, accounting for 11% of global seaborne oil trade.
Despite the additional shipping time and cost, many major container operators still chose to divert mid-voyage from the original Suez Canal route because of ongoing threats and blockades, as the Houthi forces continue to advance along the Red Sea coast and target regional maritime traffic.
The increase in traffic around Africa, and more specifically around the Cape of Good Hope, provides various African countries with new economic and diplomatic opportunities. The main economic benefits stem from the expenses and services associated with the new shipping routes.
First, the Institute for Strategic Studies Africa 2026 Report highlights that most vessels do not call at South African ports. These ports can offer international shippers key high-value services, including ship repair and maintenance, crew changes, resupply, and medical support. While major South African and Namibian ports, such as Durban and Walvis Bay, can provide a full range of services and logistics connectivity for this new traffic pattern, other countries, such as Kenya and Mauritius, can also connect this traffic to the Indian Ocean shipping needs.
Second, global pressure to replace shipping fuel with more sustainable, environmentally friendly alternatives is creating strong renewable energy markets and green hydrogen potential in African nations, along with an opportunity to capitalize on this shift. A recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations shows that countries such as Morocco and Kenya can serve as major marine refueling hubs. As trade and investment in renewable energy have become a diplomatic currency in Africa, the ability to influence shippers’ emissions can strengthen diplomatic relations among relevant nations.
Finally, as almost 70% of the previous Red Sea freight has been rerouted around South Africa, according to the Center for Security and International Studies, African nations like Djibouti are becoming key players in the new maritime security space. These nations can offer foreign nations improved physical and technological maritime security and use it to advance negotiated diplomatic and commercial goals.
IMF and World Bank’s annual meeting explores economic resilience amid climate risk, debt pressure, and AI.
While walking around central Bangkok, it’s easy to miss the damage that prompted IMF and World Bank officials at their annual meeting to consider postponing this week’s event.
No evidence of the extreme flooding elsewhere in the city, which caused so much damage and loss of life just a week ago, is visible. Life goes on—scooters buzz and trucks barrel down the expressways and narrow streets where vendors hawk exotic foods and trinkets. Bangkok officials did an admirable job cleaning up to prepare for the arrival of some 15,000 attendees, and the area surrounding the convention center is as dry—and secure—as it’s probably ever been.
Inside the meetings, though, the question was how much more disruption—climate-related or otherwise—the global economy can absorb, and who can afford to recover when the next shock arrives.
At Tuesday’s World Economic Outlook briefing, IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro described a world economy being pulled in two directions. Conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices higher, while investment in artificial intelligence has helped drive growth. The IMF outlook projects global growth of 3.1% this year, but that headline figure masks sharp differences among countries. Energy exporters and countries driving the AI boom are better positioned, she said, than those that must import fuel or have little stake in the massive technology surge.
“The economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” Tenreyro said at the briefing.
The economy is holding up, in part, because countries and companies have navigated disruptions by rerouting supplies, drawing down inventories, improving efficiency, and finding alternatives. Without those adjustments, the IMF estimates global growth would be closer to 2.5%.
But these measures have limits. Inventories run down. Efficiency gains can only go so far. And another shock—whether geopolitical or climate-related—could arrive before economies have recovered from the last one.
The Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development, or G-24, which represents emerging-market and developing economies, brought the issue closer to home. Nigeria’s finance minister and G-24 chair, Taiwo Oyedele, cited the flooding in Thailand to argue that climate commitments need to be backed by money, not just promises.
“Our appeal to world leaders is to put their money where their mouth is,” he said in a separate briefing shortly after WEO’s.
For businesses, resilience has a price. Holding extra inventory, diversifying suppliers, and keeping cash on hand can seem like unnecessary costs when markets are stable. But during a disruption, they can keep production moving and prevent higher costs from affecting the business.
Countries face a similar trade-off but lack the same resources. Developing economies need funding for infrastructure, climate preparedness, and basic services, even as debt payments consume a large share of public funds. Oyedele cited estimates that developing countries pay roughly $500 billion more in debt costs than developed economies. His broader point is clear: The countries that need to invest in resilience often face the highest financing costs.
Iyabo Masha, director and head of the Secretariat of the G-24, described the dilemma this way: “Debt is something that restrains growth.” When governments spend so much on creditors, she said, they have less left to invest in their economies.
Another uncertainty in the IMF’s outlook is that AI investment may boost growth, but its benefits do not necessarily translate into jobs. Oyedele warned that countries with younger populations could see growth alongside rising unemployment if they do not plan carefully. Growth, he said, “has to be job rich; it has to be inclusive.”
That’s a broad definition of resilience—not simply keeping an economy growing, but ensuring people benefit and that governments retain the capacity to respond when circumstances change.
In Bangkok, the discussions have ranged from growth forecasts to debt and climate finance. But the underlying question is who can afford to prepare for the next disruption and who will be left to pay for recovery.
Central Bangkok shows little sign of the recent flooding, but that doesn’t mean the damage elsewhere was any less severe. The same holds for the global economy: A resilient growth forecast doesn’t mean every country is equally prepared for the next shock. The question is how much each can afford to absorb—and what it might have to give up to recover.
Paul Curcio is the editor of Global Finance Magazine. Contact him at paul.curcio@gfmag.com.
RTX's Raytheon wins $729M in counter-drone contracts for U.S., Qatar, Jordan
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Albertsons Companies Non-GAAP EPS of $0.36 beats by $0.03, revenue of $18.89B beats by $30M
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CAPSS has entered its pilot phase, bringing real-time local currency payments to 11 Caribbean nations.
This article appears in the October issue of Global Finance Magazine.
The long-awaited CARICOM Payment and Settlement System (CAPSS), designed to transform cross-border payment settlement across the Caribbean, has entered its pilot phase, putting the region’s vision for real-time payments in local currencies into practice across 11 jurisdictions.
Developed by the region’s central banks in partnership with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), CAPSS connects national payment systems to enable real-time cross-border payments in local currencies, allowing businesses and consumers to bypass the U.S. dollar as an intermediary.
“While background settlements will still involve U.S. dollars among central banks, day-to-day transactions will use local currencies — a key innovation with broad potential,” said Timothy Antoine, governor of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, which serves eight Caribbean countries and territories that share a common currency.
The project aims to boost intra-CARICOM trade, with goods exports to regional partners accounting for roughly 8% of the bloc’s total goods exports, according to the IMF.
Settling directly in local currencies cuts foreign exchange conversion costs and makes smaller cross-border transactions worthwhile, which matters most to small- and mid-sized businesses, who pay the highest relative costs for international payments.
“If for instance, I am in Barbados and I want to buy goods from Trinidad and I don’t have the U.S. dollars to make that payment, then it becomes simply wishful thinking. We think that stifles trade,” said Okechukwu Ihejirika, acting chief operating officer at Afreximbank’s Caribbean office.
CAPSS also offers a route around the region’s shrinking correspondent-banking network. Research by the Economist Intelligence Unit in 2024 found that about 40% of correspondent banks had withdrawn from the Caribbean over the previous 15 years.
An IMF working paper published in May, “Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint,” found cross-border banking relationships lift CARICOM trade at less than half the global rate.
The system is modeled on the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, or PAPSS, launched by Afreximbank and the African Union in 2022. PAPSS provides a framework for real-time cross-border payments in local currencies and now connects banks and payment providers across 16 African countries.
The Caribbean push began in October 2023, when every CARICOM central bank adopted PAPSS as its preferred settlement system.
A proof of concept took place in February 2025 at the Central Bank of The Bahamas, where a live payment between Barbados and The Bahamas settled in each country’s own currency, with no dollars passing between them. Afreximbank and PAPSS provided a design already running in Africa, while payments software firm Montran Corp. built the connection between the two national systems. Trinidad and Tobago’s central bank took part, and Suriname sent an observer.
Governors expanded the test last November. CARICOM’s central bankers meet again in November, the next point at which the timetable could firm up.
Beyond the pilot, central banks plan to link CAPSS to PAPSS, building a payment bridge between Caribbean and African markets.
Thomas Monteiro is a contributing writer based in Spain.
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Anthropic (ANTHRO) is exploring data center investments across Australia, with a preference for regional locations and brownfield sites powered by renewable energy, Bloomberg reported.
Jeff Bleich, Anthropic’s international special envoy, said at the Australian Financial Review’s Energy and Climate Summit in Sydney
BofA analysts see gold unable to hold above $4,000 over next three months
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LVMH (LVMHF) updated investors that third-quarter revenue reached €18.50B, slightly above analysts’ €18.46 billion consensus. Organic sales growth of 1% was reported, down from the 3% pace seen in the second quarter. Strength in the U.S., Europe, and Japan offsets weaker demand in China.
Morgan Stanley recommends sticking with quality stocks, expanding into higher-quality cyclicals such as capital goods, favoring equal-weight S&P 500 or S&P 600 indices over the lower-quality Russell 2000, and monitoring financials and bond volatility for market stability signals.
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Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) 13-week exponential moving average has crossed above its 34-week average for the first time in three and a half years, according to a weekly chart shared by Raymond James’ David Cox.
The chart marked the crossover as bullish
Starbucks is not buying Chipotle – CNBC
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Euro Tech Holdings Company Limited (CLWT) announced its entry into the Norwegian market through a 50/50 joint venture between its wholly owned subsidiary, Euro Tech Global Pte Ltd, and Sea Clean AS.
The newly formed joint venture, CleanPACT Environmental and Marine
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Microsoft’s (MSFT) president called for urgent global regulation of artificial intelligence, advocating for independent evaluators to assess new developments and warning that AI faces fewer safety standards than milk.
In an interview with the BBC published on Monday, Brad Smith said a
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Faster settlement is forcing banks and treasurers to rethink liquidity, payments, and custody.
This article appears in the October issue of Global Finance Magazine.
The transition to compressed settlement cycles was initially framed as an operational hurdle. In reality, it exposed a fundamental flaw: markets trade 24/7, while legacy custody and payment rails remain shackled to traditional banking windows.
As settlement windows shrink, treasurers no longer have the luxury of multi-day batch reconciliations. Prefunding trades require real-time liquidity optimization to prevent settlement fails. “We are at an inflection point,” said Lim Soon Chong, group head of Global Transaction Services at DBS Bank Ltd. “Intermediaries are reassessing their strategies to capture the shift toward an ‘on-demand’ digital economy.”
Since 2021, DBS has operationalized this through blockchain-powered token services, enabling real-time multicurrency liquidity and automated treasury actions. By integrating these services with custody and digital exchange services, DBS provides the infrastructure for a programmable, real-time financial ecosystem.
Custody transformation is being driven by integrating real-time processing with modular delivery. At the forefront is Citigroup Inc.’s Custody+, a platform designed for an always-on economy.
For Amit Agarwal, head of custody at Citi, the requirement is clear: “To deliver a frictionless, always-on market, cash and securities for fiat and digital assets must settle in real time, 24/7, supported by custody infrastructure that is equally always on.” This vision is operationalized through Citi’s patented Single Event Processing (SEP) technology. Agarwal noted that SEP’s value extends beyond efficiency. By compressing timelines for income events, corporate actions and tax processing, SEP provides clients with earlier liquidity. This transforms faster settlement from a back-office metric into a strategic advantage.
Chris Cox, head of investor services at Citi, added that clients are modernizing legacy models to address cost and regulatory pressures. Cox said the Custody+ ecosystem is the direct answer to these needs. “Customers fundamentally want simplification and improved outcomes,” Cox explained. “Custody+ is our response to addressing those needs—it’s about creating front-office benefits rather than just letting custody be about post-trade. We chose to disrupt our own custody model and bring together our suite of near- and real-time capabilities as a modular ecosystem.”
Yet, technological speed alone is insufficient. Anthony Yeung, chief commercial officer at CoinCover, argues that institutional confidence requires secure key management and transparent recovery. “The regulatory architecture must be matched by institutional-grade safeguards,” Yeung explained. “The real measure of success is whether the ecosystem is built with resilience and operational integrity at its core.”
While Citi’s modular approach serves as a blueprint, this evolution is triggering a cascading effect across the landscape. The move to 24/7 markets is being actively operationalized by major players stripping away the obsolescence of batch-driven infrastructure, fueled by the rise of 24/7 trading, the need for instantaneous collateral fluidity and the proliferation of tokenized real-world assets.
Global custodians are redefining the infrastructure layer through digital adoption. BNY has pioneered a unified omnibus architecture that integrates legacy and digital instruments within a single compliance framework. By using distributed ledger technology, BNY enables microsettlements and real-time collateral movement, bypassing standard clearing hours.
Similarly, J.P. Morgan’s Kinexys platform leverages its institutional blockchain arm for intraday liquidity and near-instant delivery-versus-payment, allowing managers to pledge tokenized money market shares as collateral during weekends, neutralizing settlement drag. State Street Bank and Trust Company is bridging the gap between digital asset solutions and legacy accounting via strategic partnerships, replacing traditional reconciliation feeds with streaming APIs. Specialized players like Sygnum and AMINA, meanwhile, further enable atomic cross-currency settlements and smart-contract-based custody.
The buy side is equally driving the push for modernization. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, in partnership with BNY and Securitize, Inc., enables continuous yield and peer-to-peer collateral transfers. Franklin Templeton’s Franklin OnChain US Government Money Fund uses public ledgers to enable round-the-clock share creation, while Fidelity Digital Assets supports continuous digital clearing. Additionally, UBS Asset Management is piloting automated fund servicing through Project Guardian. These initiatives signal a shift toward programmable financial services.
The infrastructure of 24/7 custody rests on three pillars. First, tokenized liquidity replaces traditional, time-restricted batch messaging windows with programmable cash legs, allowing instantaneous value movement. Second, automated servicing utilizes smart contracts to manage corporate actions, drastically reducing latency. Third, advanced security orchestration, leveraging multiparty computation and hardware security modules, ensures that high-value movements remain secure and verifiable, even outside banking hours. As custodians dismantle legacy constraints, the focus is shifting toward always-on capabilities. The race is no longer about who settles fastest but who builds the most reliable architecture for a global economy that never sleeps.
Moving from traditional, batch-reliant processes to always-on operations transforms custody into a strategic advantage. It allows automated, round-the-clock value movement, continuous yield opportunities, and real-time liquidity management. However, operating in a 24/7 market shifts focus toward new security and regulatory obligations.
Regulatory requirements from the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (such as the crypto asset authorization gateway and CRYPTOPRU prudential rules) and U.S. federal stablecoin rulemaking have effectively shifted compliance from a legal filing into an operational and technical security mandate. As a result, custodians and issuers must move away from treating digital asset security as simple smart contract auditing, moving instead toward protecting off-chain infrastructure.
Ultimately, the era of the “siloed vault” is ending. Custody modernization is no longer merely an IT upgrade; it is a fundamental reengineering of the trust model. By embedding institutional-grade wallet infrastructure directly into core banking rails, custodians are shifting from passive gatekeepers to active enablers of the 24/7 digital economy. This evolution is the critical foundation for the next decade of institutional finance, where speed, transparency, and ironclad security are the primary competitive currencies.
Gilly Wright is a contributing writer based in the U.K.
