Finance Desk

SpaceX sheds $600 billion in three days as it taps the bond market for the first time

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SpaceX shares closed at $154.63 on Monday, down around 16% on the day. That leaves them within touching distance of the $150 at which the shares first changed hands when public trading opened, the level set once underwriters finished building the order book, though still some way above the $135 price at which the IPO itself was struck.


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The slide has erased more than $600 billion (€524.2bn) in market value over three trading days, dragging the company down from a peak that had lifted it past Amazon and, fleetingly, Microsoft, in terms of market capitalisation.

Its valuation now sits just above $2 trillion (€1.74tn), below Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), making it the seventh most valuable company in the world.

The retreat unwinds a remarkable opening run.

After the open at around $150 on 12 June, shares climbed to almost $226 by 16 June, a gain of roughly two-thirds before the company had published a single set of results as a public firm.

Currently, SpaceX is trading over 30% lower than the intraday high of around $226 and only 3% higher than the opening price.

That rally always rested on a thin pool of freely traded shares and lofty expectations for its AI ambitions, leaving it exposed to a sharp reversal once sentiment turned.

Tapping debt to fund the AI push

The latest leg down on Monday coincided with SpaceX’s first move into the corporate debt market.

The company announced an inaugural offering of senior unsecured notes, with people familiar with the plans reportedly putting the target at around $20 billion (€17.4bn).

The proceeds are earmarked chiefly to repay a bridge loan taken on during its merger with Elon Musk’s AI venture xAI earlier this year, with the remainder going to general corporate purposes.

The debut bond sale follows the investment-grade credit ratings awarded last Friday by all three major agencies, Moody’s at Baa1, Fitch at BBB+ and S&P Global at BBB, which open the door to cheaper borrowing and a wider pool of institutional lenders.

In documents tied to the offering, SpaceX also disclosed a cash position of roughly $100.8 billion (€88bn) as of 19 June, much of it raised in the IPO, alongside $29.1 billion (€25.4bn) of long-term debt.

That mix of vast cash reserves and fresh borrowing so soon after a record flotation has unsettled some investors, who see the rapid fundraising as a sign of heavy spending ahead as SpaceX scales its AI and data centre plans.

Opting for debt rather than new shares does, however, spare existing shareholders further dilution, preserving their economic stake while the company funds its expansion.

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Citigroup Names Raj Rathi to Lead India M&A

The bank names former Dream Sports executive and investment banker Raj Rathi to lead M&A business in India.

Citigroup Inc. has appointed veteran investment banker Raj Rathi as its new head of mergers and acquisitions in India, effective this month. The appointment comes as Citi deepens its advisory capabilities to capture opportunities in the Asian market.

Rathi’s hiring follows several high-profile additions to the bank’s regional investment banking team. Citi recently lured Bhavin Shukla from JPMorgan Chase & Co. to serve as managing director and head of Infrastructure Investment Banking for Japan, North and South Asia, and Australia. Last year, Citi hired Vikram Chavali from Goldman Sachs Group as its Asia-Pacific head of Global Asset Managers.

From Fantasy to Finance

Rathi was hired from Dream Sports, the multibillion-dollar parent company of fantasy gaming giant Dream11, where he served as head of Strategy and Corporate Development and oversaw the deployment of about $150 million across multiple strategic transactions.

Citi’s moves underscore a trend in which global banks are recruiting seasoned corporate executives to navigate complex digital infrastructure, the energy transition, and cross-border capital flows. Its recent high-profile transactions in the region include advising United Spirits Ltd. on the sale of its 100% stake in the Royal Challengers Bengaluru cricket team and steering Chinese appliance giant Haier Group through the sale of its 49% stake in Haier India to a consortium backed by Bharti Enterprises and Warburg Pincus.

Before his corporate development role at Dream Sports, Rathi spent five years as an executive director at J.P. Morgan, focusing on technology investment banking. He covered the technology, fintech, and consumer internet sectors, executing deals totaling about $35 billion in transaction value.

His career also included positions at Guggenheim Partners and Guggenheim Securities’ investment banking division, as well as at Ernst & Young, where he focused on financial due diligence and transaction advisory services for institutional clients, following early corporate development experience at Sutherland.

This article appears in the June 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

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How China’s currency makes the EU’s trade deficit worse – and what Brussels can do

As the European Union tries to fight its record-high €1 billion deficit per day with China, the bloc’s leaders are increasingly pointing to the problem of currency manipulation, which they say Beijing is using to make products even cheaper on the EU market – which is already flooded with Chinese imports.


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“An artificially low currency is an advantage for those who want to improve their economic competition positions,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after the European Council summit on 19 June.

The matter of the Chinese currency and its management was also high on the agenda of last week’s G7 summit in France.

The signs are that this is a new front in Europe’s trade battle against Beijing. To understand why the devaluation of the yuan (or renminbi) matters, here are three things to know.

What’s wrong with the Chinese currency?

According to a report by the Haut Commissariat à la Stratégie au Plan, a French government advisory body, the undervaluation of the yuan is estimated at around 20-25 percent.

“While there is no universally recognised method for determining unequivocally whether a currency is significantly overvalued or undervalued, the assessment that the renminbi (RMB) is significantly undervalued is now widely shared, including among international institutions,” the report said.

In theory, China’s trade surpluses should naturally create demand for the yuan, leading to an appreciation of the currency, but it is not the case.

However, the devaluation of the yuan might not be the direct result of central bank intervention. Alicia Ferro Herrera, an expert at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told Euronews that China prevents its currency from appreciating faster by not bringing all of its export revenues back to the mainland.

“They stay in Hong Kong and they are not converted into RMB,” she said.

How does it impact trade between China and the EU?

The EU deficit with China hit a record-high €359.9 billion in 2025. That same year marked the first time that all EU member states had a trade deficit with Beijing, including Germany, the EU’s largest economy.

“This is simply not sustainable,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last Friday.

According to the Haut Commissariat au Plan report, the undervaluation of the yuan plays a large part in keeping Chinese products competitive; as things stand, they are assessed by EU industry to be around 30-40 percent cheaper than European equivalents.

However, Ferro Herrera pointed out that the inflation differential also plays a great part.

“My estimate is that the inflation differential and its accumulation in Europe since the invasion of Ukraine explains about three quarters of the loss in external competitiveness,” she said.

What can the EU do?

In his remarks last Friday, Merz suggested the EU begin dialogue with China on the currency issue.

“We have to talk about this topic with each other,” he said. “It is in the interest of both sides.”

The German chancellor cited the 1985 Plaza Agreement, which saw the US, Japan, West Germany, the UK and France agree to depreciate the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the Deutsche Mark. The goal was to head off a protectionist turn from the US as its trade deficit deepened.

Merz also referred to the European Monetary System, which before the adoption of the euro relied on exchange-rate bands to limit currency fluctuations.

“That was a system where countries could coordinate through exchange-rate corridors,” he said.

Conversely, Ferro Herrera points out that the US did not push for any such negotiation when economic imbalances were discussed during the G7 last week.

In her view, Europe should monitor China’s export prices for major sector-by-sector deviations, since this is an important sign of overcapacity, as negative price growth occurs when goods cannot be sold.

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Assessing the Legacy of the Fed’s ‘Maestro’

As the financial world remembers the former Fed chair, economists weigh his massive macroeconomic legacy.

Alan Greenspan, the second-longest serving chairman of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, has died just months after his 100th birthday.

Known as “The Maestro,” Greenspan helmed the Fed under five U.S. presidents, from August 1987 until January 2006. He managed the central bank through two market crashes, two recessions, and various financial crises. Through it all, the U.S. economy experienced significant macroeconomic expansion, rising asset prices, and a dramatic shift in corporate finance.

The Greenspan Put

Early in his tenure, Greenspan intervened to mitigate the impact of the 1987 stock market crash, a move known as the “Greenspan put.” The monetary policy lowered interest rates and injected liquidity, stabilizing the economy, restoring investor confidence, and mitigating financial shocks. However, Fed intervention also incentivized investors to take excessive risks, fueled speculative bubbles such as the 1990s dot-com bubble, and led to market expectations of future interventions.

The Greenspan put is a bit of an illusion, Kenneth Rogoff, professor of Economics at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, wrote in an email exchange.

“When markets collapse, the interest rate required to maintain stable inflation will typically also temporarily collapse,” Rogoff wrote. “His biggest mistakes were in regulatory policy, where he had too much faith in financial market innovation and too hands-off an attitude towards regulation. We are now, in the second year of the [second] Trump administration, repeating that mistake.”

A Man Remembered

“He was a great central banker who helped lead his country through two decades of prosperity,” said Ben Bernanke, a Distinguished Fellow in Residence at Brookings Institution and Greenspan’s successor at the Fed, in a statement. “I always found him generous with his time and insights. We are still learning from him, even if he is no longer with us.”

Don Kohn, a senior fellow at Brookings and former Fed governor and vice chair, remembered Greenspan encouraging Fed staff and fellow policy makers to voice new ideas and analytical insights while asking them to find the weak points in the hypotheses he put forward.

“But those ideas, insights, and challenges need to be backed by evidence and solid reasoning,” he wrote in a post on Brookings’ website. “Once when he asked me what I thought we should be doing on policy, I started my response with, ‘My gut tells me…’ He quickly cut me off: ‘That’s not your gut, Don, that’s your experience and knowledge.’”

Greenspan’s willingness to experiment to lower the unemployment rate, which peaked at 7.4% in 1992, drew many admirers.

“He pushed it lower than the conventional wisdom had ever thought possible, and discovered that it was possible to have more Americans in work without sparking inflation,” Justin Wolfers, professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Michigan, wrote in an email exchange. “Hundreds of thousands more people found work, and their families could afford a better life because he showed that there’s nothing natural about what many economists had called the natural rate of unemployment.”

Although Wolfers did not agree with all of Greenspan’s decisions, he noted that “his intellectual courage and devotion to the public good were never in doubt. He lived a big life and made a difference.”

Contact the author at rdaly@gfmag.com

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Outdoor Holding outlines AI customer service launch “within the next month or so” as it adds FFL services in fiscal 2027 (NASDAQ:POWW)

Earnings Call Insights: Outdoor Holding Company (POWW) Q4 fiscal 2026

Management view

  • “Net sales were $13.9 million, an increase of over 10%,” CEO & Chairman Steven Urvan said, adding that “gross margin remained strong for the quarter at 87.6%” and GMV “increased to $229 million.”

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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Germany to take 40% stake in Leopard tank maker KNDS alongside France

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The German government announced on Monday that it intends to acquire 40% of the defence contractor KNDS, a move designed to bolster European arms production in partnership with its NATO and EU ally France.


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The decision deepens state involvement in a company whose hardware has become central to Europe’s rearmament efforts.

KNDS was created in 2015 through the merger of Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and France’s Nexter. The French state holds a 50% stake, while the other half belongs to the German family behind Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, whose planned exit has opened the door for Berlin to step in.

Based in Amsterdam, the group reported revenue of €4.4 billion last year and employs more than 11,000 people.

The timing reflects a broader scramble across Europe to expand military spending and manufacturing capacity, as governments weigh the continued threat from Russia’s war in Ukraine against growing doubts about the reliability of the US as a security guarantor.

Berlin framed the investment in explicitly strategic terms, saying it would secure lasting influence over a business it considers vital to European security and defence.

The German government added that the stake would reinforce domestic industrial output, technological independence and the safeguarding of key national security interests and technologies.

In a joint statement, Germany and France said they had agreed on the future strategy and governance of KNDS, which they intend to co-own through arrangements aimed at giving both countries equal shareholdings.

Clearing the path to a stock market listing

Neither government specified a timeline or the final level at which their holdings would settle, but they stated the agreement opens the way for a possible flotation of KNDS in the near future.

According to people familiar with the matter cited by the Associated Press, the two states plan to trim their stakes to around 30% within two to three years of any listing, while retaining equal voting rights regardless of the size of each holding.

The two governments cast the deal as a joint commitment to building up Europe’s defence industry and armed forces, and to securing the continent’s strategic independence well into the future.

State participation in the firm was first floated by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius in 2025 as a way to protect strategic expertise and jobs.

Beyond its tanks, KNDS also manufactures the Puma infantry fighting vehicle and the Boxer and Dingo armoured personnel carriers, equipment which is in growing demand as European armies replenish stocks depleted by years of underinvestment and donations to Ukraine’s defence.

Additional sources • AP

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Synthetic Data & Agentic AI in Banking: Banks Send in the Clones

Banks are testing products on fake customers. It’s faster, cheaper, and ethically murky.

Financial institutions are quietly substituting real customers with algorithmic clones to bypass stringent data privacy laws and speed up time-to-market. 

Testing a new credit card or AI investment app traditionally takes months of vetting. For bank product developers, the synthetic consumer, who never sleeps or complains to regulators, and costs fractions of a penny to interview, represents a faster, highly attractive alternative, prompting adoption across the industry.

U.S. Bank deploys synthetic audiences to model consumer segments, such as high-net-worth households, and test messaging and refine campaigns before launch. Regulatory sandboxes encourage this practice to keep pace with AI-driven fintech. Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, and UBS are part of the UK FCA’s AI Live Testing initiative, utilizing advanced AI systems to test products and simulate market stressors.

NatWest, Monzo, and Santander, meanwhile, explore synthetic data ecosystems to train AI models, while JPMorgan Chase generates synthetic financial data to simulate market behaviors for risk management and product design.

Adoption Accelerates, Zero Governance

Industry experts warn that the true challenge is balancing the speed of agentic AI with the need for strong governance.

“Most banking leaders believe agentic AI can move faster if governance weren’t perceived as a constraint. But in practice, governance is what makes these systems deployable at scale. A critical part of that is robust testing against representative ground truth, and synthetic data provides a powerful proxy that enables banks to stress-test products against rare scenarios and edge cases,” said Mudit Gupta, EY Americas Financial Services Consulting AI Practice Leader.

“The trade-off,” he added, “is privacy: synthetic data is often treated as inherently safe when it can still leak sensitive signals through inference and linkage risks. It can also replicate and scale historical biases, embedding them behind a layer of abstraction that makes them harder to detect, audit, and challenge—turning a governance shortcut into a long-term ethical exposure.”

Ultimately, the rush to deploy synthetic consumers offers undeniable speed, but the industry must quickly confront whether these powerful proxies—if not rigorously governed—will fulfill their purpose as a testing shortcut or simply institutionalize Wall Street’s next major ethical crisis.

This article appears in the June 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

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Oil prices slip as progress in US-Iran talks eases supply concerns

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At the time of writing, Brent crude was down 0.91% at $79.12 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude had fallen 0.70% to $75.32 a barrel.


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Lower crude prices reflected broader investor sentiment in early trading after Qatari and Pakistani mediators said the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran aimed at securing a final agreement to end the conflict had concluded with “encouraging progress”.

A memorandum of understanding signed last week includes a commitment to reach a final agreement within 60 days, an end to fighting on “all fronts” – including in Lebanon – and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets mixed as analysts monitor US-Iran negotiations

Meanwhile, Asian stocks were mixed on Monday, with markets in Japan and South Korea trading higher, while US futures traded lower.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.6% to 72,364.82 after reaching a new all-time high of 72,831.73 during intraday trading, helped by technology stocks fuelled by enthusiasm over the global artificial intelligence boom.

Japan’s SoftBank Group, the multinational investment holding company with a strong AI focus, rose 2.4%, while chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron gained 2.3%.

South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4% to 9,084.37 and was trading near record highs, led by AI-related shares. Memory chip maker SK Hynix surged 4.7%.

“We’re seeing another strong market today,” Neil Newman, managing director and head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said. He cautioned that the Japanese market was “probably getting a little stretched” from an investor’s point of view, “especially with what’s going on in the Middle East”.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1% to 23,690.86, while the Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.2% higher to 4,098.01.

Additional sources • AP

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JPMorgan Names Aiyengar as Head of Investment Banking

A veteran dealmaker takes the helm as large-cap M&A shows signs of a selective recovery.

JPMorgan Chase, the global leader in investment banking revenue, has named Anu Aiyengar global chair of Investment Banking and M&A, signaling a renewed emphasis on dealmaking as a pillar of its investment banking strategy.

As part of a broader divisional shift, the bank also named Dorothee Blessing, Kevin Foley, and Jared Kaye as co-heads of Global Investment Banking, while Charles Bouckaert succeeds Aiyengar as global head of M&A.

The changes come as deal activity shows signs of recovery after nearly two years of sluggish momentum. Dealogic estimates that global deal announcements reached nearly $2 trillion by May 11. That’s a 33% increase from the same period last year.

Still, observers note that the current cycle is far from a repeat of the free-flowing deal market of 2021. Higher financing costs have made boards more disciplined about price and timing, while closer regulatory scrutiny from antitrust watchdogs in both the U.S. and Europe has raised the financial and reputational cost of getting large transactions wrong.

A Selective, Large-Cap Rally

“This has not been a full-spectrum, feel-good rally. It has been a highly selective one, skewed toward strategic, large-cap deals,” said Marc Cooper, CEO of Solomon Partners. “Deals valued at $5 billion and up accounted for more than half of all volumes. That distinction matters.”

Against this backdrop, Aiyengar’s appointment suggests JPMorgan sees senior dealmaking expertise as a defining advantage in the current market. The firm expects the dealmaking veteran to work closely with senior clients as boards decide whether to move forward with transactions or wait for better conditions.

Since joining JPMorgan in 1999, Aiyengar has advised on more than $1 trillion in transactions. She became sole head of the bank’s global M&A franchise in 2023, making her the only woman leading M&A at a major Wall Street house at the time.

Her move also carries symbolic weight in an industry where senior dealmaking roles remain dominated by men. In 2025, Business Insider named her the top U.S. M&A banker on its Rainmakers list, making her the first woman to hold the No. 1 position.

This article appears in the June 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

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SpaceX lands investment-grade credit ratings as shares tumble from record high

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Elon Musk’s space and AI firm secured first-time ratings from Moody’s, Fitch and S&P Global on Thursday, a milestone that places its debt firmly in investment-grade territory and could allow it to borrow more cheaply as it funds a vast expansion.


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The endorsements arrive less than a week after the company’s record IPO, which raised around $85.7 billion (€73.8bn) in the largest initial public offering in history.

Moody’s assigned SpaceX a Baa1 long-term issuer rating with a stable outlook. In its report, the agency pointed to the firm’s “exceptional franchise strength” as the world’s leading orbital launch provider and operator of Starlink, the largest low Earth orbit satellite broadband network.

The rating is also slightly higher than Tesla’s Baa3. Reacting to the news in a reply on social media, Elon Musk wrote: “Tesla’s credit rating is ridiculously low to be honest.”

According to Moody’s, Starlink has become SpaceX’s primary cash flow generator, underpinning improving scale, wider margins and a gradual shift away from more cyclical launch revenue.

Moody’s also set out the risks. It said the rating was constrained by the heavy execution and financial demands of SpaceX’s large-scale AI buildout, marked by high capital intensity, sustained negative free cash flow and an uncertain range of returns.

The agency highlighted the company’s dependence on the next-generation Starship V3 vehicle, warning that technical setbacks or delays could pressure long-term growth.

It further pointed to elevated governance risks tied to SpaceX’s controlled structure and concentrated voting power, which it said limit independent board oversight and leave the firm heavily reliant on a single individual, Elon Musk.

However, Moody’s still projects strong revenue and earnings growth through 2028, driven chiefly by Starlink, which counted 12 million subscribers as of early June, alongside an expected turning point in the AI division.

The agency cited recent third-party compute deals with Anthropic and Google worth a combined $75 billion (€65bn) as evidence of that potential.

As for the other credit agencies, Fitch issued a BBB+ long-term issuer default rating, also with a stable outlook, citing the company’s commanding lead in commercial launch, where it has delivered more than 80% of global mass to orbit since 2023.

Meanwhile, S&P Global assigned a BBB rating with a stable outlook, weighing the strength of the launch and connectivity businesses against the risks of the nascent AI segment and the company’s substantial capital needs.

Shares slide from their peak

The ratings did little to steady the stock on Thursday.

SpaceX closed at $185, down more than 18% from the high of $225.6 it reached on Tuesday, when its valuation briefly topped $3 trillion (€2.6tn).

The shares fell as low as $172 during the session before paring losses, as investors weighed whether the company’s lofty valuation had run too far.

The retreat has reshuffled SpaceX’s standing among the world’s corporate giants. The company now ranks once again as the sixth most valuable listed firm by market capitalisation, having given back some of the ground it gained earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, it had overtaken Amazon to claim fifth place, and at its intraday peak, it briefly leapfrogged Microsoft into fourth before this week’s slide pushed it back down.

Even after surrendering some of those gains, SpaceX sits among the most valuable companies on the planet just a week into its life as a public firm, and the investment-grade verdict from all three major agencies marks a notable shift in how financial markets judge a business that spent years operating as a privately funded rocket maker.

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Private Markets Are the New Must-Haves

OpenAI, Anthropic—trillions in wealth are locked in private markets. Banks want in.

With valuations of nonpublic companies reaching record levels on the back of the AI boom, private-market access is increasingly becoming the defining battlefield for client acquisition in private banking.

Consider SpaceX’s public debut earlier this month. It was the largest initial public offering in history, adding $75 billion to its roughly $15.85 billion pre-IPO cash position and creating a market capitalization of over $1 trillion. Once OpenAI and Anthropic go public, the combined valuation of all three companies could be well over $3 trillion.

OpenAI filed an S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission June 8 for a confidential IPO. And Anthropic said Claude Code’s run-rate revenue has more than doubled since the beginning of 2026, underscoring how much wealth creation is taking place outside public markets.

“Much of the current innovation and growth is happening within private markets,” said David Frame, CEO of J.P. Morgan’s Global Private Bank. “Clients are increasingly seeking these opportunities,” he added. 

According to a recent Titanbay/Campden Wealth report, the average ultra-high-net-worth investor (UHNWI) holds 20% of their portfolio in private equity, double the level two years earlier, and plans to raise that figure further. 

Likewise, 86% of wealth advisers plan to increase private-market investments this year, with 47% raising allocations specifically to venture capital and growth, according to Hamilton Lane’s 2026 Global Private Wealth Survey.

Racing to Respond

The booming demand has led to a wave of new initiatives from banks and asset managers. In September 2025, Bank of America and Merrill launched the Alts Expanded Access Program for UHNWIs with a net worth of $50 million or more. 

Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched its first-ever green private equity strategy, the North Haven Private Assets Fund, in May 2025. DBS Private Bank partnered with Hamilton Lane to launch PATH for Asian clients, while Goldman Sachs announced plans to invest $1 billion in T. Rowe Price to expand wealth-channel access.

But as interest in private equity rises, experts warn that private banks could be caught between long-term wealth building and growing demand for riskier assets. “There’s a dichotomy in the market,” George Walper, managing principal of CEG Insights, said. “Wealthy investors want more exposure to alternatives, to private markets—meaning more risk. At the same time, they want to be cautious and protect their assets.”

This article appears in the June 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

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Bank of England holds main interest rate at 3.75% as inflation steadies

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The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, extending a pause that began in December 2025, as policymakers weighed the inflationary fallout from the Iran war against signs of resilience elsewhere in the economy.


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Governor Andrew Bailey and fellow Monetary Policy Committee members were widely expected to keep rates on hold and maintain a broadly neutral stance on future policy moves.

The decision came a day after official figures showed UK inflation holding steady. Consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in May, unchanged from April and below economists’ expectations of 3.0%, leaving the headline rate at its lowest level since early 2025.

However, the stable reading masked diverging trends beneath the surface. Transport costs accelerated sharply to 6.8%, driven by higher fuel prices and rising air fares, while food inflation eased to 2.2% and housing costs continued to moderate.

Though inflation remains above the bank’s target of 2%, the figure raised hopes that the upward pressure on prices emanating from the spike in oil and gas prices after the start of the Iran war on 28 February may have been less than anticipated.

Andrew Bailey, the bank’s governor, said the recent fall in oil prices has been “encouraging” while noting they are still higher than before the war.

“Whatever happens in the future, the higher energy prices of the past four months mean there’s already some inflationary pressure in the pipeline,” he said. “The Bank’s job is to make sure that doesn’t turn into sustained inflation above our 2% target.”

Analysts also cautioned that inflation could still accelerate later this year, as higher household energy bills feed through to prices. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said: “Whilst inflation was below expectations in May and currently under 3%, it is still likely to jump closer to 4% later in the year due to the coming impact of a higher energy price cap.”

James added that while oil prices have retreated from recent highs, they remain above last year’s levels, suggesting underlying inflation pressures have not fully disappeared.

The decision to hold the key interest rate was not unanimous, with two of the nine Monetary Policy Committee members voting for a quarter-point rate increase, reflecting concerns that higher energy costs could still feed through into broader inflation pressures.

A labour market losing momentum

Thursday’s labour market release painted a mixed picture.

The unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 4.9% in the three months to April, down from 5.0% in the first quarter, yet payrolled employee numbers fell over the period, pointing to an underlying loss of momentum even as the headline jobless rate improved.

Wage growth, a metric the Bank of England watches closely for signs of persistent price pressure, held firm, with regular pay excluding bonuses rising 3.4% on the year.

“The labour market is still continuing to lose momentum, with the latest figures showing a further cooling,” stated Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, struck a similar note, cautioning that “it’s clear that the labour market is not out of the woods yet,” though he added that the mixed data buys the committee more time to wait and see how the economy evolves.

The combination of cooling headline inflation, a softening jobs market and still-robust pay growth underscores the bind facing the committee. Strong earnings keep alive the risk of so-called second-round effects, where higher wages feed back into prices, even as hiring loses steam.

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