The TWZ Newsletter
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As the clock ticks down on a shaky ceasefire that could end Wednesday, Pakistan is attempting to host last-ditch negotiations to stave-off a new round of fighting between the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed after being shut down again by Iran this weekend as negotiations for a peace deal took a nose-dive. The closure occurred around the same time Iran reportedly fired on several ships in the Strait on Saturday. A U.S. attack on and seizure of a cargo ship that was supposedly running the blockade in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday has also resulted in Iran making new threats of retaliation. All this represents a dramatic deterioration in U.S.-Iran relations compared to just a few days ago.
Pakistan has cordoned off parts of Islamabad in anticipation of the pending talks. However, it remains unclear if Iran will send a delegation to meet the U.S. negotiating party of Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law. The meeting is tentatively set for Tuesday.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday insisted the talks are still on despite Iranian suggestions otherwise.
“We’re supposed to have the talks,” Trump told The New York Post Monday morning in a brief interview, brushing aside doubts about whether negotiations would fall apart. “So I would assume at this point nobody’s playing games.”
Trump’s comment to the New York Post came after Iranians claimed they would not take part in any new talks.
“So far, we have no plans to participate in the next round of negotiations,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters on Monday. “The behavior of the United States does not indicate seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process.”
Baghaei added that no decision has been made on how or when negotiations would resume. The Foreign Ministry spokesman also pushed back on Trump’s claims that Iran agreed to give up its highly enriched uranium (HEU).
“It is strictly off the agenda,” Baghaei proclaimed “Iran’s definitive stance is to keep all of its nuclear achievements on its own soil.”
A senior Iranian source told Reuters the continuation of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports was undermining the prospect of peace talks, and that Tehran’s “defensive capabilities,” including its missile program, were not open to negotiation.
However, a Pakistani security source told the news outlet that Pakistan’s key mediator, Field Marshal Asim Munir, informed Trump that the blockade was an obstacle to talks, and that Trump had replied that he would consider the advice.
One big reason for confusion about Iran’s attendance at the Islamabad talks could be a growing schism between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and more moderate elements of Iran’s current leadership.
“There’s a power struggle underway in Iran—and even within the delegation that went to Islamabad for the first round of talks, which offered a sense of the country’s internal tensions,” according to The Economist.
“Their arguments were so ferocious that Pakistani mediators are reported to have spent as much time refereeing among the Iranians as engaging the Americans.”
One visible sign of this power struggle may have come Saturday, when several ships were reportedly struck by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC could have been acting independently, however we don’t know for sure. Thawed relations with the U.S. run counter to the IRGC’s core mission and beliefs, but also could spell degradation in their power within Iran. The idea that the IRGC could end up taking control over Iran, at least to a degree, is a possible outcome TWZ highlighted before the war broke out.
Iran claims its reluctance to negotiate stems in large measure from U.S. Central Command’s interdiction of the Iranian-owned cargo ship M/V Touska on Sunday for what it says was a violation of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. CENTCOM said the Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted the vessel on Sunday as it transited the north Arabian Sea at 17 knots enroute to Bandar Abbas, Iran.
“After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room,” CENTCOM stated. “Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.”
The ship had recently visited China, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Early Monday morning, CENTCOM released a video of Marines fast-roping aboard the Touska. The video shows an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter taking off from the Spruance. It cuts to a scene of Marines repelling from a Seahawk onto the deck of the ship.
CENTCOM on Monday had no update on how long the ship would be held, what cargo was discovered on board or the fate of the crew.
The command previously released video of the Spruance firing three rounds on the cargo ship from its Mk-45 gun. The projectiles have a range of up to 20 nautical miles and can be fired at a rate of between 16 and 20 rounds per minute.
While the Navy used the Mk-45 to take down Houthi drones in 2024, it’s unclear when a 5-inch gun was last used against another vessel. We have reached out to the Navy for more details.
Trump broke the news of the interdiction on his Truth Social site, saying the Spruance stopped the cargo ship, which was under Treasury Department sanctions, “by blowing a hole in the engineroom.”
Calling the incident “piracy,” Iran threatened to strike back.
“Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned that the country’s armed forces will soon give a retaliatory response to the terrorist US forces’ latest act of piracy in the Sea of Oman,” according to Iran’s official Press TV media outlet.
As of 2 p.m. EDT Monday, that response had yet to be delivered, though Iranian media on Sunday claimed it launched drone strikes at U.S. Navy warships.
Hours before the Touska incident, Trump renewed his threats against critical Iranian infrastructure.
“If the deal isn’t done, the deal that we made, then I’m going to take out their bridges and their power plants,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday morning. “If they don’t sign this thing, the whole country is going to get blown up.”
“We’re preparing to hit them harder than any country has ever been hit before because you cannot let them have a nuclear weapon,” Trump added.
UPDATES
UPDATE: 5:35 PM EDT –
In a post on X, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said “Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table— in his own imagination— into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering.”
“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he added.
CENTCOM released news images of its forces patroling the Arabian Sea near the seized Iranian cargo ship Touska.
UPDATE 5:15 PM EDT –
A source close to the IRGC told Israel’s Channel 14 that“IRGC Commander Vahidi is taking a positive stance toward not continuing the negotiations. From his perspective, there is no need to rush into a deal. He believes Trump will eventually back down and does not believe his threats.”
Iran has reopened the Imam Khomeini and Mehrabad airports in the capital, Tehran, according to Al Jazeera. The airports were shut after weeks of war with the US and Israel had brought air traffic to a halt.
“According to the ISNA news agency, the Civil Aviation Organization will also give the greenlight to reopen the airports of Urmia, Kermanshah, Abadan, Shiraz, Kerman, Rasht, Yazd, Zahedan, Gorgan and Birjand from Saturday,” the outlet reported.
Iran targeted the UAE with more than 2,800 missiles and drones, 90% of which were aimed at civilian infrastructure, according to the UAE’s embassy in the U.S.
UPDATE: 2:40 PM EDT –
In another Truth Social post, Trump proclaimed the situation in the Middle East is going well and that the blockade is costing Iran a half-billion dollars a day.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country won’t give in to U.S. demands.
“Adherence to commitments is the logic that justifies any kind of dialogue. In addition to the deep historical distrust in Iran toward the background of the U.S. government’s behavior and performance, the non-constructive and contradictory approach of U.S. officials in recent days carries a bitter message: they seek Iran’s surrender,” he stated on X. “The people of Iran will not bow to coercion.”
Meanwhile, “Hormuz transit drops to just three vessels, the lowest level since the blockade began,” according to the Windward maritime intelligence firm. “870 vessels remain in the Gulf, with continued caution and reduced movement. 7 VLCCs detected near Chabahar, indicating potential export shift east of Hormuz.”
“Iranian flows continue via deception, including dark activity and ship-to-ship transfers,” Windward added. Dark activity remains stable at 140 events despite reduced overall traffic.”
Vessel attacks from April 18 “continue to suppress transit confidence and movement,” the company posited.
The State Department will host a new round of ambassador-level talks between Israel and Lebanon, Reuters reported.
Trump on Monday pushed back against assertions that he was goaded into war with Iran by Israel.
“Israel never talked me into the war with Iran, the results of Oct. 7th, added to my lifelong opinion that IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, did,” Trump stated on Truth Social. ”Just like the results in Venezuela, which the media doesn’t like talking about, the results in Iran will be amazing – And if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!”
Since the U.S. imposed the blockade on April 13, it has turned away 27 ships trying to enter or exit Iranian ports, CENTCOM stated on X Monday morning.
In the wake of the Touska incident, Hapag-Lloyd tells us they re-evaluating sailing through the area.
“We assess the new situation and the related risks very carefully,” a spokesperson told us. “We will only make the passage when we are convinced it’s safe enough to do so. Our top priority is the safety and security for our seafarers, the vessels and the cargo of our customers.”
The spokesperson added that “we have now 5 ships in the Persian Gulf, because the contract of one of our charter vessels expired.”
The company offered an optimistic view last week after Iran temporarily reopened the Strait, which it then closed again, blaming the blockade.
Chinese President Xi Jinping called for normal passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz to be maintained, Reuters reported. His comments came during a phone call on Monday with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held as Beijing steps up efforts to help end the Iran war.
China is the main customer for Iranian crude oil and derives much of its energy imports from the Middle East. The Iranian closure of the Strait and subsequent U.S. blockade on Iranian ports is having a negative impact in China.
UAE’s State Security Service exposed an Iranian-linked terror network and apprehended 27 suspects planning to “undermine national unity and destabilize the country by planning terrorist and sabotage attacks,” the Emirati State News Agency (WAM) reports.
When Trump learned that an F-15E was shot down over Iran, “he screamed at aides for hours,” according to The Wall Street Journal. “Trump demanded that the military go get them immediately. But the U.S. hadn’t been on the ground in Iran since the government overthrow that led to the hostage crisis, and they needed to figure out how to get into treacherous Iranian terrain and avoid Tehran’s own military.”
“Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments,” the newspaper added, citing a senior administration official.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said the United States is making an effort to extend a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Reuters reported on X, citing the pan-Arab Asharq al-Awsat media outlet.
Berri spoke to the newspaper after a meeting with the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa.
Despite the ceasefire, Israel continues to strike Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
“Overnight, the IDF struck a loaded and ready-to-fire launcher in the area of Qalaouiye in southern Lebanon, north of the Forward Defense Line, in order to prevent a direct threat to the communities of northern Israel,” the IDF stated on Telegram.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
