Air War Against Iran Enters Week Two (Updated)
Over the last seven days, we have watched a joint air campaign unlike what we have ever seen before. New capabilities and evolved threats have made headlines as the world watched much of the Middle East become a free-fire zone. At the same time, many questions surrounding how long the war will take and its true scope and goals grow louder. These calls for clarity are becoming more pronounced globally, as well, as the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a heart attack of sorts, with energy shipments stopped on the strategic waterway’s northern edge.
While missile and drone launches have decreased significantly, these weapons continue to score major hits. Beyond U.S. military-related sites in Gulf Arab states, Iran continues to pummel energy production infrastructure. There are real concerns about the ability to defend against these attacks over the long term as interceptor stocks dwindle.
All this is occurring while Iran is experiencing a power vacuum the likes of which it has never experienced. As the U.S. and Israel ramp up strikes across the country during the transition from standoff to direct attacks, what will come of Iran’s fractured government remains a total unknown. Fears are growing that the default control of Iran could fall to its most well-armed and fanatical arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a top possibility we laid out in our feature published before the strikes commenced.
So much has happened in one week, and we were right there providing rolling coverage and breakouts nearly around the clock. Now, once again, we look at the present. Here’s what’s going on as we flow through day eight of the war.
LATEST UPDATES
We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.
UPDATE: 4:29 PM EST-
Check out our feature on the major alarm bells that should be ringing after Iran successfully targeted multiple missile defense radars in the region.
More video has emerged from the dignified transfer of the remains of six soldiers killed in Kuwait on March 1.
Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader in the wake of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, issued a direct threat against Trump via X.
Meanwhile, in Iraq, pro-Iranian members of parliament are shouting the long-familiar phrases “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America.”
Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group, is launching volleys of rockets at Israel.
UPDATE: 2:35 PM EST –
Trump arrived in Dover for the dignified transfer of six soldiers killed by an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait on March 1.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saturday that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told him Washington has no intention of arming Kurdish groups in Iran, a direct response to reports that have rattled Ankara as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Tehran enters its second week.
Given the ambiguity of the situation, the Kurds say they are not rushing into Iran.
To counter Iranian drone and missile fire, a U.S. Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated near the American embassy in Baghdad.
U.S. IndoPacific Command took to X to dispute some claims about the recent sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena by a USN fast attack submarine.
The IDF said it is continuing to strike Iranian ballistic missile production sites.
The IDF launched strikes Saturday evening on Iran’s national oil facilities in Tehran for the first time since the start of the war, targeting dozens of fuel storage tanks, YNET News reported, citing Israeli officials.
“The attack was carried out under directives from the political leadership and with IDF support, marking a significant escalation in Israel’s campaign against Iranian regime infrastructure,” the outlet explained.
The Israel Defense Forces says it’s demolished a majority of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers, causing the number of missiles targeting Israel and other countries in the region to fall throughout the week, Bloomberg News reported.
More than 60% of such launchers have been “neutralized and destroyed,” Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff of the IDF, said in a televised statement on Thursday. Zamir did not say how many had been struck, but the IDF had cited the number as 300 earlier that day.
UPDATE: 1:45 PM EST—
We are getting new satellite images of bomb damage in Iran from Vantor. The images show the airport and port in the city of Bushehr, which sits along the northeastern shore of the Persian Gulf. We also get a shot of the tunnel entrances at the underground facility in Natanz and what looks like a vehicle destroyed nearby, possibly a short-range air defense system.
The entrance to the naval base doesn’t look to inviting anymore:
We are also getting a satellite view of the destruction at Tehran International from the IAF’s strikes there last night:
Another drone strike on a highrise tower in Dubai:
UPDATE: 1:20 PM EST—
Israel is now clarifying its attack on Iran’s international airport, stating they targeted aircraft used by the IRGC for weapons transfers to proxies. These aircraft are well known and include some of the country’s last airworthy 747s.
Looks like a lot of aircraft destroyed:
South Korea is rushing deliveries of SAMs to the UAE as the interceptor crunch deepens:
The scarcity of interceptors continues to raise alarms amongst allies around the globe:
Another round of B-2 strikes appears to be on the way. It will be interesting to see if they recover in Diego Garcia this time instead of the United States:
Emirati fighters are seen prowling over the Gulf Of Oman in search of Iranian drones to kill.
More indications that the Kurds are going to go into Iran, but just how shallow those movements would be isn’t clear.
The Iranian drone attack on Dubai’s international airport may have been targeting the air traffic control tower. It is possible that this radar is tied into the military’s air defense architecture, but even if it is not, it would be another blow to the economy of the country as it would impact air travel.
An unconfirmed report states that the US warned the Iranian warship Dena to abandon ship multiple times before the Los Angeles class fast attack submarine sunk it via torpedo. This is supposedly coming from one of the sailors aboard that survived.
UPDATE 12:25 PM EST—
Iran is going after the heart of Saudi oil production.
There are additional indications that America’s involvement in this conflict will be longer than some anticipated:
NBC News reports that Trump has a high interest in deploying ground troops for the war effort.
It appears that U.S. Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopters are active in countering Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq.
IAF states it has intercepted over 110 long-range drones launched from Iran since the war began.
The Israel Defense Forces have posted a video from one of its aerial assets running down what it says are missile launch operators and bombing them:
Israel also says the chief of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) just flew a combat mission over Iran.
There are reports of additional US wounded from Epic Fury, but CENTCOM tells us that the tally still stands at six troops killed and 10 seriously wounded. This could be due to a delay in information or just erroneous reports, and we will keep you posted.
What appears to be a HIMARS launcher firing a rocket (likely PrSM ballistic missile, the first of which was used operationally in this war) from the beach in Bahrain. It hasn’t been clear where the United States is firing these weapons from, but it would appear that, assuming this video is authentic, Bahrain is one of those locales. It is just 125 miles from Bahrain to Iran, so PrSM would be able to reach nearly two hundred miles into Iran from this distance.
Israel says it destroyed Iran’s central hub of its air defense efforts:
B-1B bombers are now operating out of RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. This comes after the U.K. government denied US access to Fairford and Diego Garcia. We should expect bombers in Diego Garcia soon. These will likely include B-2 and possibly B-52s. Forward deploying the bombers will drastically increase sortie rates and put less stress on aerial refueling assets.
While Iranian launches have decreased, they certainly are far from stopping. Just overnight alone, Iran launched nearly 140 weapons at the UAE alone.
Multiple MQ-9s have been lost over Iran in the conflict so far, but they have been extremely effective in taking out all types of Iranian targets, from missile launchers to drones to fighter aircraft to vessels. As we noted in our previous update, they are also far more expendable and less risky to deploy deep in Iran than crewed alternatives. But as we have explored in depth, air supremacy over Iran has not been achieved and won’t for some time.
Iran’s new leadership has stated that the country will stop attacking its neighbors if they do not participate in attacks on Iran. Iranian officials have also made clear that they see the basic act of hosting U.S. bases as contributing to the current campaign. The drones and missiles have continued to be launched at Arab Gulf states, regardless.
Some in the Iranian parliament are not pleased with even indicating the country may cease its retaliation efforts aimed at Arab countries across the Persian Gulf:
U.S. intel agencies warned prior to Operation Epic Fury that favorable regime change in Iran is unlikely to occur regardless of the military operation used to achieve it, according to The Washington Post.
The lack of preparedness by the Uited Kingdom in responding to the conflict is becoming an issue back home and internationally.
The United Kingdom is moving ahead with its deployment of Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to help in the counter-drone mission after a successful attack on the RAF’s base there that originated in Lebanon.
The RAF has also shared imagery of Typhoon fighters operating in Qatar to help defend against drone attacks.
Turkey may also deploy fighters to Cyprus to defend against any possible drone attacks.
We could also be seeing the deployment of a Royal Navy carrier very soon.
Drones continue to hit civilian areas in the Gulf Arab states, including a drone attack on the UAE’s international airport:
A stunning image of the destroyed AN/TYP-2 anti-ballistic missile radar, one of a number of prized radars that have been struck by Iranian weapons. We have a major story coming on this and its implications today. This is a scenario we have been warning about for years. Stay tuned.
Another commercial vessel appears to have been attacked in the Persian Gulf:
Israel is back to fighting on two fronts, with major operations in Lebanon ongoing since Hezbollah broke the ceasefire in retaliation for Israel’s air campaign against Iran.
Reports state that China is working with Iran to get safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait. China has a high degree of dependence on energy resources from the Middle East.
Trump again lauded the achievements of the air war so far, highlighting how the country’s conventional fighting capabilities have been ‘wiped out.’
Iran’s attack on the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia appears to have put it completely out of action:
Airstrikes overnight pummeled Iran, including its largest airport:
Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com
