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US says it has destroyed Iran missile capacity: How is Iran still shooting? | US-Israel war on Iran News

Joint attacks by the United States and Israel have severely reduced Iran’s capacity to fire missiles and drones, experts say, but Iran retains enough capabilities to inflict significant damage.

“Iran’s ballistic missile capacity is functionally destroyed. Their navy assessed combat ineffective. Complete and total aerial dominance over Iran,” the White House said on Saturday. “Operation Epic Fury is yielding massive results,” it said in reference to the war launched by Israel and the US on February 28.

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On Sunday, President Donald Trump said US forces had decimated Iran’s drone manufacturing capacity.

Still, on Monday afternoon, Qatar announced it had intercepted the latest in a series of missiles fired from Iran towards the country. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also issued alerts. A missile landed on a car in Abu Dhabi, killing a person.

So are Iran’s missile capabilities severely reduced? And how is it still firing projectiles at its neighbours and Israel?

Is Iran firing fewer missiles now?

Indeed, the number of retaliatory missiles and drones that Iran has fired towards Gulf countries, Israel and other nations in the region has seen a steep decline since the start of the war.

In the first 24 hours of the conflict, Iran had fired 167 missiles (ballistic and cruise) and 541 drones at the United Arab Emirates, for instance. By contrast, on day 15 of the conflict, it had shot four missiles and six drones, according to a tally compiled by Al Jazeera based on the emirate’s Defence Ministry statements.

The barrage against Israel has also decreased, from nearly 100 projectiles over the first two days to a single-digit number in the past few days, according to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Last week, the Pentagon said missile launches were down 90 percent from the first day of fighting and drone attacks were down by 86 percent.

How big is Iran’s missile arsenal – and how much has it been hit?

Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessed in 2022. While there are no official accounts on how many missiles it has, Israeli intelligence reports suggest it counted around 3,000 missiles, a figure that dropped to 2,500 following the 12-day war last June.

Key to the US-Israel strategy has been hunting down Iran’s launchers. Each missile launch generates a signature, such as a large explosion, that can be picked up by a satellite and radar systems.

According to a senior Israeli military official cited by the Institute for the Study of the War, Israel has put up to 290 launchers out of service, out of an estimated 410 to 440 launchers.

But Iran is a vast country, and without boots on the ground, it will be hard to completely eliminate Iran’s capacity to shoot despite the US and Israel having nearly full control of the country’s airspace, said David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.

“It is not obvious to identify launchers,” Des Roches told Al Jazeera. “What we see are missiles that were put in hidden places or places not associated with the military before the war, when there was less observation”.

According to Des Roches, the slowdown in launches is due to Iranian forces having lost the capacity to launch volleys. As a result, Iran has been firing one or two missiles at a time towards civilian and commercial infrastructure, especially in Gulf countries, instead of aiming volleys at military targets. Iran insists that it is targeting only US interests in the region.

“Militarily speaking [Iran’s action] is not significant – this is what is called harassment fire to exhaust alert systems in nearby countries and scare people off,” Des Roches said.

What’s Iran’s strategy?

According to Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWB), Tehran’s central calculation is that the Gulf and Israel may run out of their defensive capabilities before Iran runs out of missiles.

“There might be some interest in making this a war of attrition,” he said, pointing at the lower, yet constant, number of weapons launched from Iran each day.

“Although the US and Israel have been successful in taking out some of the launchers and major missile bases, the Iranians have decentralised the missile bases and missile command and they have been increasingly relying on mobile launchers which makes it more difficult for the other side to detect and target,” Azizi said. “This is a race about time.”

And in that race, Iran believes it has a chance, say experts.

“It does not matter how many you launch as long as you maintain a credible threat,” Muhanad Seloom, an assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera. “It takes one successful drone to shatter a sense of security.”

Iran has long experience in producing cheap yet effective drones. The Shahed 136 can be made quickly and in large numbers in relatively simple factories, and several of them can be fired at once, overwhelming defences. It also doesn’t need complex launchers that can be targeted in air strikes. With a speed of just 185km/h (115mph), Shaheds can be shot down by helicopters. Still, many have managed to get through US and Gulf air defence systems.

Just on Monday, a fire broke out near the UAE’s Dubai International Airport in a drone-related incident that temporarily disrupted flights; another drone attack caused a fire at the Fujairah industrial area, also in the UAE; air sirens sounded in central Israel due to a missile fired from Iran; and in the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which 20 percent of global energy supplies are shipped – hundreds of vessels remain paralysed over fear of being struck despite few attacks on ships. Since the start of the war, a maritime tracker has reported 20 incidents related to vessels.

This, say experts, is part of Iran’s defensive doctrine of asymmetric warfare against militarily superior powers, such as the US and Israel. The weaker party, Iran in this case, turns to unconventional methods of warfare, wearing down the enemy by targeting key infrastructure to inflict economic pain.

Tehran has already pushed oil prices to higher than $100 a barrel and sent global markets into panic mode. The second-biggest exporter of natural gas, Qatar, continues to keep shut its production; Bahrain’s state oil company has declared force majeure on its shipments, and oil production from Iraq’s main southern ⁠oilfields has plunged 70 percent.

If Iran can keep raising global oil prices, “it will inflict equal or more damage to the US than American bombs in Iran,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.

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No, MAGA is not divided on the Iran war | US-Israel war on Iran

Sometimes, journalists indulge in myths and delusions they claim to decry.

This grating inclination has been on almost giddy display in the still evolving aftermath of United States President Donald Trump’s rash decision to join Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in launching a war with Iran.

Like falling dominoes, a “narrative” gathered momentum among the America’s “progressive” commentariat, insisting that Trump’s order to go to war offended large swaths of the MAGA movement and set off a seismic split in his ardent base.

It is a silly myth and a seductive delusion.

Sure, a handful of familiar MAGA personalities have grumbled that another Middle East conflict betrays the “America First” pledge that helped propel Trump back to the White House.

Conservative commentator Megyn Kelly has questioned whether the US is drifting, yet again, into an endless war without purpose or meaning. Podcaster Joe Rogan has talked about the conflict’s disastrous, unintended consequences. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson has warned that the unprovoked attack could trigger chaos across an already volatile region.

Trump, of course, parried the backlash with trademark coarseness. He lashed out. He dismissed the naysayers. He mocked allies who briefly turned detractors.

Headlines blared that a domestic quarrel threatened to engulf his MAGA disciples in a “civil war.”

The idea that MAGA has fractured is fantasy. Disquiet is not rupture. Dissent is not rebellion.

The MAGA “movement” is not a conventional coalition held together by consensus around a coherent, considered set of principles or policies.

MAGA remains what it has always been: a political phenomenon built to burnish one man’s ego and narcissism. As long as that man is Trump, the “movement” bends to his designs and whims. It adjusts; and, inevitably, snaps back into loyal line.

That loyalty remains the movement’s signature force.

For nearly a decade, Trump has tested its limits. He has weathered scandals that would have devoured most politicians. Two impeachments. Criminal convictions. A litany of controversies, including his close and lengthy friendship with the architect of a worldwide sex trafficking ring, the notorious paedophile, Jeffrey Epstein.

Through it all, MAGA has, if anything, tightened its loving embrace of Trump.

The notion that a fraternal dispute over foreign policy would shatter the vice-like bond is absurd. That bond is emotion. It is visceral.

For his embittered supporters, Trump is the embodiment of grievance-fuelled defiance. He is a charismatic champion against enemies in Washington — the gilded establishment, the media, the global order who treats them with derision and contempt.

Within that parochial framework, Trump’s actions at home and abroad are filtered through the prism of fidelity. When Trump unleashes a war that he once opposed, his devout followers accept his shifting rationales — however obtuse or contradictory. They believe he sees threats others ignore. They believe he acts when others hesitate.

Indeed, polls confirm their steadfast confidence in Trump’s judgement and his enduring appeal.

The Republican Party has always harboured different instincts. Some supporters lean towards isolationism. Others favour aggressive displays of the America’s unparalleled power.

While there may be hints of unease among Republicans about the prospect of a long, costly war with Iran, that unease has not led, and likely will not lead, to a broad revolt anytime soon.

Trump’s standing within the Republican Party remains strong. His approval among Republican voters remains high. They trust him.

That trust trumps the simmering doubts raised by a small, albeit prominent, slice of MAGA fawning pundits and a few recalcitrant members of Congress.

Kelly knows it. Rogan knows it. Carlson knows it.

The trio understands that they operate inside a MAGA universe fashioned and controlled by Trump. Their popularity and influence depend on staying there. They know the defining rule of Trump’s gravitational pull: stray too far and you will be cast out.

Predictably, Carlson avoided escalation.

Instead, he declared his allegiance. He made plain that he still “loves” Trump. He reminded listeners that Trump had reshaped American politics.

Kelly and Rogan may question the risks and dangers of war, but neither would wage a sustained attack on the president. Neither would dare tell Trump’s loyalists to abandon him.

A fleeting disagreement over Trump’s reckless adventure in Iran will not translate into a lasting break.

Even the most high-profile MAGA hucksters recognise that confronting Trump invites retribution and disaster. Their audiences overlap. Their reach thrives in the same ideological ecosystem.

Picking an ultimately losing fight with the ecosystem’s vengeful anchor is rarely good business.

So, MAGA is, at the moment, experiencing a touch of turbulence. It will pass.

Which is why the constant search by establishment media for a dramatic MAGA schism keeps producing the standard result.

Nothing much changes.

Every time Trump sparks outrage, the same prediction appears. This time, the base will rebel. This time, the coalition will splinter.

This forecast is a tired ritual. It ignores the fundamental nature of the MAGA compact. That connection is not rooted in briefs or blueprints. It is a secular religion where the leader is never wrong.

Myopic scribes mistake a fracas for a collapse. They see tension and hope for a divorce. The believers are not preoccupied with the logistics of war or the mercurial logic of “America First”. They care about the man who gave them a voice.

Once the friction fades, the sceptics will retreat. They have nowhere else to go. The undeniable magnetism of Trump’s celebrity and command of MAGA reels most reluctant strays back.

To leave that agreeable orbit permanently is to vanish into irrelevance — a bleak fate for provocateurs who have forged lucrative careers amplifying Trump’s ignorance, intolerance, and fury.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Iran war fuels S. Korean tanker bet as shipping heir’s strategy pays off

The homepage of South Korean shipping company Sinokor Merchant Marine (Janggeum Shipping) is shown in this screenshot. Captured by Asia Today from Sinokor website

March 16 (Asia Today) — A bold bet by a South Korean shipping heir on ultra-large oil tankers is paying off handsomely as the war involving Iran disrupts global energy markets and drives tanker demand sharply higher.

Bloomberg reported that Sinokor Merchant Marine, a major South Korean shipping company, positioned itself to profit from the crisis after securing a large fleet of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) months before the conflict escalated.

The strategy was led by Jeong Ga-hyun, a director at Sinokor Petrochemical and the son of Sinokor Chairman Jeong Tae-soon, according to the report.

Bloomberg described the move as an unprecedented large-scale bet in the global tanker market, executed well before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Tankers deployed to Gulf before war

On Jan. 29, weeks before the war erupted in late February, Sinokor reportedly deployed at least six empty VLCCs to the Persian Gulf, positioning them to wait for cargo.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed tanker demand and charter rates sharply higher, the strategy began generating massive returns.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handling roughly 20% of global oil shipments.

Tanker rates surge to $500,000 a day

With oil exports disrupted and storage facilities across the Middle East filling rapidly, oil producers have increasingly turned to tankers as floating storage units.

According to Bloomberg, Sinokor is now chartering vessels for about $500,000 per day, roughly ten times last year’s average tanker rates.

Industry estimates suggest that by late February the company controlled around 150 VLCCs, representing roughly 40% of available tankers not already tied up in sanctions or long-term contracts.

Quiet heir behind massive shipping strategy

Jeong is known in the shipping industry as the low-profile heir to one of South Korea’s major maritime families.

Bloomberg reported that he rarely appears publicly and is known internally for a military-style management approach. Industry anecdotes even describe him challenging employees and business partners to arm-wrestling contests.

Oil supply disruptions reshape tanker market

The Iran war has dramatically altered global oil transportation patterns, forcing ships to reroute and increasing the need for offshore storage.

Under those conditions, Sinokor’s aggressive tanker acquisition strategy is now being viewed as one of the biggest winners of the crisis, Bloomberg said.

WSJ: Sinokor among winners of Hormuz crisis

The Wall Street Journal earlier identified Sinokor as one of the companies benefiting from the Strait of Hormuz tensions.

According to the newspaper, the company purchased dozens of oil tankers and deployed some of them to the Gulf region even before the conflict intensified.

Sources told the Journal that Sinokor is leasing several vessels to ADNOC, the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil company, to be used as floating storage facilities.

These vessels can earn up to $500,000 per day in charter fees, the report said.

As land-based storage in Gulf oil-producing countries approaches capacity, producers have increasingly stored crude at sea. Drilling firms in Iraq and Kuwait have even slowed production due to storage shortages.

The WSJ also noted that Greek shipping magnate George Prokopiou adopted a similar strategy, sending at least five tankers to the Strait of Hormuz through his company Dynacom, which is reportedly earning up to $440,000 per day – about four times pre-war rates.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260316010004394

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Israeli And U.S. Officials Indicate War Could Go On For Another Three Weeks (Updated)

Neither the U.S. nor Israel seem close to ending their attacks on Iran as the war stretches into its 16th day. U.S. President Donald Trump says he is not yet prepared to make a deal with Tehran while Israeli officials say there are still “thousands of targets” to be hit.

In an interview with NBC News Saturday night, Trump said he wants Tehran to offer a better “deal” before he would agree to ending hostilities.

“Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” the president told the network in a 30-minute phone call. He added that the terms offered would have to be “very solid.”

The U.S. leader, however, declined to say what conditions he is seeking.

“I don’t want to say that to you,” Trump stated, while acknowledging that Iran would have to completely abandon any nuclear ambitions as part of any agreement.

Israel, meanwhile, told CNN it plans for at least three more weeks of its campaign in Iran. 

“We have thousands of targets ahead,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told the cable outlet. “We are ready, in coordination with our U.S. allies, with plans through at least the Jewish holiday of Passover, about three weeks from now. And we have deeper plans for even three weeks beyond that.”

Defrin added that the IDF is “not working according to a stopwatch, or a timetable, but rather to achieve our goals” which are to “weaken the Iranian regime severely.”

💥Israel plans at least 3 more weeks of war, with “thousand of targets” remaining, @IDFSpokesperson Effie Defrin told @CNN. IDF isn’t “working according to a stopwatch or timetable, but rather to achieve our goals,” which he defined as to “weaken the Iranian regime severely.” pic.twitter.com/LepQpT7MOG

— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي (@NTarnopolsky) March 15, 2026

At the same time, Chris Wright, Trump’s Energy Secretary, has also said the war will end within the next few weeks:

“I think that this conflict will certainly come to the end in the next few weeks – could be sooner than that. But the conflict will come to the end in the next few weeks, and we’ll see a rebound in supplies and a pushing down in prices after that,”

(Reuters) – U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that he expects the U.S. war with Iran to end within “the next few weeks,” with oil supplies rebounding and energy costs declining afterwards.

“I think that this conflict will certainly come to the end in the next few…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 15, 2026

While another three weeks of war would roughly fit into Trump’s previous statements that the conflict could last as long as five weeks, this is such a fluid situation that it is extremely difficult to make predictions about timelines.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to pound targets in Iran, including the continued use of bomber sorties.

تواصل القوات الأمريكية مهمتها في تقويض القدرات العسكرية الإيرانية. pic.twitter.com/O1se3fwI8v

— U.S. Central Command – Arabic (@CENTCOMArabic) March 14, 2026

Explosions were heard across major Iranian cities, including Tehran and Shiraz, with significant smoke rising from Isfahan and Jask Port while US CENTCOM confirmed that B-52 bombers participated in a night mission targeting Iran’s infrastructure.https://t.co/tueO3wqWJL

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 15, 2026

A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress takes off for a night mission during Operation Epic Fury. Strikes from U.S. forces continue to be unpredictable, dynamic, and decisive. pic.twitter.com/LU9zogVy7C

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 15, 2026

Video has revealed the Iranian Space Research Centre in west Tehran has suffered significant damage from Israeli-US strikes.

The ISRC is Iran’s leading satellite and intelligence mapping research agency. pic.twitter.com/JdGLpFwg0e

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 15, 2026

The biggest change in targeting came from the U.S. attacking Kharg Island. This is the epicenter of Iran’s oil exporting that sits roughly 20 miles off Iran’s northern coastline along the Persian Gulf.

CENTCOM posted:

“Last night, U.S. forces carried out a precise and wide-ranging strike on Kharg Island in Iran. This strike destroyed naval mine storage depots, missile storage bunkers, and numerous other military sites. U.S. forces succeeded in targeting more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving the oil infrastructure.”

نفذت القوات الأمريكية، ليلة أمس، ضربة دقيقة واسعة النطاق على جزيرة خرج في إيران. وقد دمرت هذه الضربة مستودعات تخزين الألغام البحرية، ومخابئ تخزين الصواريخ، والعديد من المواقع العسكرية الأخرى. نجحت القوات الأمريكية في استهداف أكثر من 90 هدفاً عسكرياً إيرانياً في جزيرة خرج، مع… pic.twitter.com/wLGBZtCdah

— U.S. Central Command – Arabic (@CENTCOMArabic) March 14, 2026

Just a day ago, TWZ Editor-In-Chief Tyler Rogoway stated this would be at the top of the list of targets intended for U.S. Marines heading to the region, as well as one of the smaller islands closer to the Strait of Hormuz, if indeed the Marines from USS Tripoli and its MEU are indeed used. According to one tracking source, USS Tripoli is currently sailing through the South China Sea, moving fast to join U.S. forces amassed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

There are also a number of islands in and around the Strait of Hormuz that could be used help put up a screen against shipping attacks etc. Also risky for obvious reasons. pic.twitter.com/0nolqdew9J

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 13, 2026

The strikes took out the island’s airfield as well as air defenses and other targets that were military related. They were not focused on the energy transfer services the island provides. These strikes would be critical to preparing the island for future operations.

After the attack, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

“We totally demolished Kharg Island, but we may hit it a few more times just for fun.”

Trump says he has directed strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, an oil hub.

There has been widespread speculation it could be targeted for strikes, U.S. seizure or both. pic.twitter.com/qO3H1olaiI

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 13, 2026

We will be talking a lot more about Kharg Island in the near future.

We are also seeing U.S. aircraft operating over Iranian population centers at lower level, pointing to the degraded state of Iranian air defenses. The video below shows a Super Hornet over Chabahar, which still is a coastal city, so it’s not like the aircraft is seen deep inside Iran, and this seaside town, which is near the border with Pakistan on Iran’s southern shore, was heavily struck during the opening stages of the conflict:

Israel also remains highly active with strikes in Iran:

Video footage published this morning by the Israel Defense Force shows a recent strike on a drone storage facility in Western Iran, followed by subsequent strikes on Iranian personnel that fled from the building after the initial attack by the Israeli Air Force. pic.twitter.com/K1idaicILp

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 15, 2026

Israel claims about a third of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers are still usable. This appears to be a similar figure floated over the past week.

“Israel believes that less than one-third of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers are still operational, with the rest destroyed or buried beneath rubble in bunkers.”https://t.co/Rk3dy5xpJm

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) March 14, 2026

Footage shows the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force preparing launchers and firing ballistic missiles targeting Israel. pic.twitter.com/uNMkx3imVi

— OSINTWarfare (@OSINTWarfare) March 15, 2026

Five U.S. aerial refueling tankers were struck by an Iranian ballistic missile that landed at Print Sulan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Trump, however, pushed back on the reported claims about the KC-135s, calling them “fake news” and that “Four of the five had virtually no damage and are already back in service.”

NEW: President Trump dismisses reports by The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times that U.S. refueling tanker aircraft were destroyed in a strike in Saudi Arabia, saying none were destroyed and most are already back in service. https://t.co/A61K2ZKNDb pic.twitter.com/wJLEovvGSb

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 14, 2026

Claims about these tankers follow a March 12 mishap that put out of action one KC-135 and destroyed another with six airmen onboard. On Saturday, the Pentagon announced the names of the airmen killed in the above-mentioned incident when two KC-135s reportedly collided with each other.

Maj. John A. Klinner, 33, of Auburn, Ala.

Capt. Ariana G. Savino, 31, of Covington, Wash.

Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, 34, of Bardstown, Ky.

Capt. Seth R. Koval, 38, of Mooresville, Ind.

Capt. Curtis J. Angst, 30, of Wilmington, Ohio

Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons, 28, of Columbus, Ohio.

🚨BREAKING: Washington hero among the six Air Force airmen who were killed in a KC-135 refueler crash on March 12 supporting Operation Epic Fury.

– Capt. Ariana G. Savino, 31, of Covington, Wash.
– Maj. John A. Klinner, 33, of Auburn, Ala.
– Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, 34, of… pic.twitter.com/A4PC9dXl3c

— Lynnwood Times (@LynnwoodTimes) March 15, 2026

A drone attack on the U.S. Embassy in the Green Zone in Iraq destroyed a Giraffe 3D radar system that would be an important component used in the protection of the facility from incoming drone strikes. It isn’t clear if this was a near-field or long-range attack, although a near-field one seems most likely. Regardless, targeting of critical radar systems has been a key component of Iran’s retaliation campaign.

A report from Axios claims Putin said he would move Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal that could see the end of the war, but Trump rejected the offer. This needs to be taken as unconfirmed at this time, but Russia taking the material has long been floated as a potential part of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. Considering Russia’s tight relationship with Iran, which has only gotten more intense since the war in Ukraine kicked off, and the fact that Russia is not exactly a friendly country to the U.S. and the West, skepticism here is not illogical.

During the phone call earlier this week, Russian President Putin reportedly proposed to US President Trump to move Iran’s 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium to Russia as part of a deal to end the war.

Trump rejected the offer, per Axios.https://t.co/cFkmrt0zam

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 13, 2026

The Economist has a report that states the damage to the world economy is mounting from the closure of the strait and a major further spike in oil prices could send the globe into recession.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed just until the end of the month, some analysts reckon crude could surge to $150 or even $200 a barrel. That would be a recipe for global recession https://t.co/EiuojqPv5T

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 14, 2026

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump ignored advice from Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine about the damage Iran could inflict on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The Wall Street Journal story came a day after War Secretary Pete Hegseth decried as “fake news” assertions that the Trump administration underestimated the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz.

Hegseth on Iran:

Reports that the Trump administration underestimated the Iran war’s impact on the Strait of Hormuz are ridiculous.

For decades, Iran has threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This is always what they do — try to hold the strait hostage.

Does CNN think… pic.twitter.com/UfJh04QpWV

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 13, 2026

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday said that the country’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, “is in good health condition and manages the country strongly.”

Araghchi’s comments come two days after War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Khamenei was wounded and “likely disfigured.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei has been wounded as part of the US and Israeli campaign against the country.

“We know the new so-called, not-so-supreme leader is wounded and likely disfigured,” he said Friday https://t.co/b2fYt8Nsfn pic.twitter.com/FGAs1rEWUu

— Bloomberg (@business) March 13, 2026

Regardless of Mojtaba Khamenei’s current condition, his later father had misgivings about his son replacing him, according to CBS News. An analysis by the U.S. intelligence community “showed Khamenei was wary of Mojtaba taking power because he was perceived as not very bright, and was viewed as unqualified to be leader, according to sources,” the network claimed.

🚨 Scoop via @CBSNews: U.S. intelligence has circulated to Trump and to a small circle around him that Iran’s late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, had misgivings about his son replacing him. The analysis showed Khamenei was wary of Mojtaba taking power because he was perceived as…

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) March 15, 2026

The IRGC is unsurprisingly stating they are actively trying to kill Prime Minister Netanyahu. This should come as no surprise, but the message is certainly overt.

Iranian ballistic missiles are still piercing Israel’s air defenses:

Footage shows the aftermath and extent of the damage caused by the recent Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv and central Israel.

Iranian warheads continue to reach the heart of the country. 🇮🇱🚀 pic.twitter.com/6S4LPRo7y0

— إسحاق حمومي | יצחק אל-חמומי 🇮🇱 (@A_Ham96) March 15, 2026

There is a report that says Israel is running low on interceptors. Israel has said the report is not accurate. It would be of no surprise that Israel is running low of these advanced weapons, especially after just eight months since the 12-Day War. This issue has been highlighted in multiple reports in the months following that operation. If this is indeed the case, and we cannot confirm it is at this time, it will put more pressure on U.S. THAAD and SM-3 interceptor systems and the stockpile overall.

👀 scoop from @ShelbyTalcott:

“Israel informed the US this week that it is running critically low on ballistic missile interceptors as the conflict with Iran rages on, US officials told Semafor.”https://t.co/Bp1M6WDUQQ

— Elana Schor (@eschor) March 14, 2026

تتعامل حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية مع اعتداءات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة قادمة من إيران وتؤكد وزارة الدفاع أن الأصوات المسموعة في مناطق متفرقة من الدولة هي نتيجة اعتراض كل من منظومات الدفاع الجوي للصواريخ البالستية، والمقاتلات للطائرات المسيرة والجوالة.

UAE air defences are… pic.twitter.com/MR1kcPLGhg

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 15, 2026

Iran continues to target gulf allies’ oil production facilities:

An Iranian drone attack on an oil refinery in Erbil, Iraq, caused a major fire:

Western sources: Turkey is dispatching aircraft to Qatar to assist in intercepting missiles and drones from Iran.

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 15, 2026

A video has been released showing Iraqi militia FPV drones attacking Baghdad International Airport. In the clip, it shows two flying around the facility for a prolonged period of time before diving into a soft shelter and a hangar.

Iraqi Aletejah TV broadcast what it reported to be a drone attack on the American base at Camp Victoria, near Baghdad International Airport.

These drones are likely operated by Iraqi militias. It is the first time I have seen an attack on a US base by Iraqi militias from the… pic.twitter.com/pNe2TgbEJU

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) March 14, 2026

President Trump says that Iran wants to make a deal, but the terms aren’t good and that he doesn’t even know if Iran’s newly appointed leader is alive.

EXCLUSIVE: President Trump told me in a phone call today that Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire but he’s not yet ready to make a deal.

“Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” he said.

Trump also told me of Mojtaba…

— Kristen Welker (@kwelkernbc) March 14, 2026

Trump appears to be looking to build a coalition to reopen the Strait, including long-time European allies. That ask does conflict with his previous statements on Truth Social about the war already being won and not needing at least one key ally, the UK. At the same time, the UK has opened its bases to U.S. bomber deployments. Trump has also commented that the “last person he needs help from is Zelensky” in regard to Ukraine sending capabilities to the region to defend against drones.

Trump:

Countries that receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz must take care of that passage, and the U.S. will help — a lot.

This should have always been a team effort. pic.twitter.com/Ge5v106ZRM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 14, 2026

France has said an emphatic “non” to the American president’s request for military support in his Middle Eastern campaign.https://t.co/aPLB1v5POR

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) March 15, 2026

Zelensky, for his part, told CNN that Russia is supplying Iran with Shahed drones and is aiding Iran in targeting U.S. assets in the Middle East. Though Iran initially supplied these weapons to Russia for its war on Ukraine, Moscow has made numerous improvements since as we have frequently noted.

While unofficial, this basic chart can be used as an informal data point in terms of drone and missile launches out of Iran. It shows drone and missile launches had leveled off for a number of days, but drone launches have spiked a bit in the last day or so. Clearly, Iran continues to execute standoff launches that are doing significant damage over two weeks into the conflict.

A 3-day moving average of Iranian ballistic missile launches and drones. Clearly trending in the right direction on missiles. Drone launches ticking up though

Credit to @MarioLeb79 for aggregation of raw data pic.twitter.com/yqxU95F3Yu

— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) March 14, 2026

UPDATE: 4:17 PM EST

The IDF is preparing to deploy more forces in southern Lebanon and expand its buffer zone to push away the threat of Hezbollah from the border, Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel “Mannie” Fabian stated on X.

The IDF is preparing to deploy more forces in southern Lebanon and expand its buffer zone to push away the threat of Hezbollah from the border.

Last week, the military deployed troops deeper in southern Lebanon, beyond the five positions it already had, saying it aims to… pic.twitter.com/449Romg8Hi

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 15, 2026

The IDF on Sunday reported that 85% to 90% of Hezbollah’s pre-2023 rocket arsenal has been destroyed, according to The Jerusalem Post.

“The IDF’s update on Sunday suggests that over the course of 2025, and more intensely since Hezbollah entered the war on March 2, the military has gradually reduced that total to between 10,000 and 23,000 rockets,” the publication noted.

IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split.

IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split.

Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March.

Still missing is the flow rate, however. https://t.co/eBH8Fx14yb pic.twitter.com/czLAxJfL4Z

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 15, 2026

Retired Admiral Kevin Donegan, who commanded the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in the Middle East during President Trump’s first term, told ABC’s This Week that the Trump administration was not taken off guard by Iran attempting to shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. air strikes.

“If you look at the campaign CENTCOM initiated, this was built into it from the beginning,” he explained. “Think about it in terms of the things that the chairman said and the things that Admiral Cooper said his mission was, one of the things in there was to just to go after the Navy. And what they really meant was, Iran’s capability to control the straits when this is over.”

The Kurdish coalition forces have organized a military and are now awaiting external material support to arrive before they carry out any ground operations in Iran, the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) representative in the UK, Razgar Alani, told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

Interview: Kurdish opposition forces are ready to take military action against Iran’s regime, according to a PDKI official, but they are waiting for crucial external support before they proceed with their operations.
✍️ @DanielleGreymanhttps://t.co/3fR78xmNPD

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 15, 2026

Newt Gingrich suggested setting off a dozen thermonuclear blasts across the UAE to create a new, wider, safer transit than the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear if the former Speaker of the House of Representatives was being serious or facetious.

Instead of fighting over a 21-mile-wide bottleneck forever, we cut a new channel through friendly territory. A dozen thermonuclear detonations and you’ve got a waterway wider than the Panama Canal, deeper than the Suez, and safe from Iranian attacks. https://t.co/Et21kHCiAw

— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) March 15, 2026

UPDATE: 3:38 PM EST –

Israel’s Kann News reports that Jerusalem is recalibrating its objectives for the war because Iranians are not protesting against the regime as much as initially anticipated.

“We need to reassess the war’s objectives. We’re not advancing at the pace we set,” the outlet said security sources told it  “In Israel, they explain that the war’s opening strike was ‘beyond expectations,’ and so were the days that followed, However, according to them, there is a significant challenge in getting the Iranian people to pour out into the streets in droves.”

גורמי ביטחון אומרים לכאן חדשות: ״צריך לעשות הערכה מחודשת של יעדי המלחמה. אנחנו לא מתקדמים בקצב שקבענו״.

בישראל מסבירים שמכת הפתיחה של המלחמה היתה ״מעבר לציפיות״, וגם בימים שלאחר מכן. אך לדבריהם, יש קושי משמעותי בלהביא את העם האיראני לצאת בהמוניו לרחובות.

עוד הוסיפו הגורמים:… https://t.co/JuTqTFfvDh

— Suleiman Maswadeh סולימאן מסוודה (@SuleimanMas1) March 15, 2026

Qatar was attacked by several Iranian drones today, its Defense Ministry stated on X.

تعلن وزارة الدفاع القطرية عن تعرض دولة قطر لهجوم بعدد من الطائرات المسيّرة من الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية، اليوم الأحد، ونجحت قواتنا المسلحة “بفضل من الله” بالتصدي لجميع الطائرات المسيّرة.

حفظ الله قطر وأميرها وشعبها والمقيمين على أرضها.

The Qatari Ministry of Defense… pic.twitter.com/kOwRCD6IhO

— وزارة الدفاع – دولة قطر (@MOD_Qatar) March 15, 2026

Online tracking shows that while few ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there.

MAP OF THE DAY: While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (other than a few tankers, notably from India), the Red Sea is witnessing the arrival of an oil tanker armada to the Saudi terminals there.

(Tracking via @TheTerminal)
(Blue arrows are oil tankers DWT >120,000) pic.twitter.com/uPTfxDu0j3

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 15, 2026

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on Sunday that “he was sceptical about a potential widening of the European Union’s Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz,” Reuters noted on X. Wadephul said that the mission to help commercial shipments pass through the Red Sea was “not effective.”

what a fool indeed. lives up to his name

— Alabi temitope (@Topedatrinitie) March 15, 2026

The Iran war threatens to deal significant blows to the Gulf’s biggest economies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, if it doesn’t end soon, Bloomberg News reported.

“Qatar and Kuwait could each see their gross domestic product contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through April, resulting in a two-month halt of the Strait of Hormuz,” the outlet posited, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Farouk Soussa.

Goldman Sachs on the Gulf:

Qatar and Kuwait could each see their GDP contract by 14% this year should the conflict continue through April, resulting in a two-month halt of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE would fare better given their ability to re-route oil…

— Annmarie Hordern (@annmarie) March 15, 2026

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright downplayed concerns that the U.S. was not prepared for Iran’s closure of the Strait.

Q: If you were prepared, why is the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed right now?

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Because it’s right next to the Iranian shoreline. pic.twitter.com/TJuOt171LJ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 15, 2026

Israel attacked a site near the Bushehr nuclear reactor without knowing that Russian scientists were there, Israel’s I24 News reported, adding that there were no injuries.

🇮🇱🇷🇺🇮🇷 כמעט משבר בין ישראל לרוסיה: ישראל תקפה באתר סמוך לכור הגרעיני בבושאר מבלי לדעת ששם שהו מדענים רוסיים (שלא נפגעו) pic.twitter.com/wU8oKPNS66

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) March 15, 2026

Zelensky said a drone deal with the U.S., centered on the exchange of technologies, expertise and production, was possible despite Trump’s rejection.

At the same time, the Ukrainian leader warned private drone makers in Ukraine not to pursue direct export deals outside of government oversight. You can read more about that effort in our story here.

“I have never heard that the United States isn’t interested. I have heard the opposite – that the United States is very interested,” Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv on Saturday.

UPDATE: 1:44 PM EST –

As of Sunday, “neither Israel nor the US has announced any success in neutralizing 40-plus kilograms of  60% enriched nuclear uranium covered in rubble after IDF attacks on nuclear sites and the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility,” The Jerusalem Post reported. “Further, the IDF declined to provide assurances that these two threats would be dealt with before the end of the war.”

The US and Israel believe that Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility is still a threat, despite heavy blows to the regime during the war with Iran. @jeremybob1 reports https://t.co/w1ABDbHlNV

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 15, 2026

The world’s top central banks convene this week facing a renewed inflation threat from the war in Iran and the possibility that they’ll be forced to delay interest-rate cuts and in some cases consider hikes, Bloomberg News reports.

“Changes aren’t imminent yet,” according to the outlet. “The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all expected to keep borrowing costs steady as they assess how much surging energy costs will feed through to consumer prices and growth.”

The world’s top central banks face a renewed inflation threat from the Iran War and the possibility that they’ll be forced to delay rate cuts and in some cases consider hikes https://t.co/FbQuqqdNeQ

— Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2026

An Italian Air Force remotely piloted aircraft was destroyed during a drone attack on Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, according to the Italian Defense Ministry (MoD). No personnel were harmed in the incident. 

The IAF published images and video of its F-35I fighters heading to Iran to carry out strikes.

Days after an Iranian attack on fuel storage tanks at the port of Salalah, Oman, plumes of smoke can be seen rising for dozens of kilometers in satellite imagery.

Dense smoke plumes stretch for dozens of kilometers from the fuel storage tanks at the port of Salalah, Oman 🇴🇲.

The fuel tanks were struck by UAV’s launched from Iran on March 11. pic.twitter.com/963oqTDhaP

— Ben Tzion Macales (@BenTzionMacales) March 15, 2026

In a post on X, CBS News published a graphic of targets hit by all parties in the Iran war.

At about 7 p.m. local time (noon EST). Baghdad International Airport and its surroundings came under attack by five rockets, resulting in injuries to four airport staff and security personnel, in addition to an engineer, with varying degrees of wounds, the Iraqi Security Media Cell announced on X.

“In response to the targeting, directives and orders were issued to relieve the sector commanders and intelligence officers in the affected sector, while the competent authorities have begun taking the necessary legal measures, alongside tightening security procedures around the targeted areas,” the media cell added.

رئيس خلية الإعلام الأمني، الفريق سعد معن: في تمام الساعة 19:00 من مساء هذا اليوم، تعرض مطار بغداد الدولي ومحيطه إلى هجوم بـ (5) صواريخ، أسفر عن إصابة (4) من موظفي وعناصر أمن المطار، إضافة إلى مهندس بجروح متفاوتة.
​وقد توزعت أماكن السقوط داخل حرم المطار الدولي، وفي محطة تحلية…

— خلية الإعلام الأمني🇮🇶 (@SecMedCell) March 15, 2026

UPDATE: 1:05 EST –

Araghchi disputes Trump’s claim that Iran wants to negotiate an end to the war.

“We never asked for a ceasefire or negotiations,” the Iranian foreign minister told Face The Nation Sunday morning. “We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the regime is not in a war of survival, telling @margbrennan the regime is “stable and strong enough.”

“We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and… pic.twitter.com/AQdyeWBiFu

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 15, 2026

The decision to appoint Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father was a signal that the regime wants to maintain control of the country, former CIA operative told Face The Nation.

Former CIA operative Jonny Gannon says the decision to appoint Motjaba Khameini as the new supreme leader “is the message from the regime that they are still in control.”

Mojtaba Khamenei is clearly not a charming public face; what he is is a systems operator,” he says. “So, he… pic.twitter.com/oP6zveXtvO

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 15, 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil from an unprecedented stockpile release will be made available immediately in Asia,” Bloomberg News reported. Buyers there “are clamoring to replace barrels lost to war-related disruptions in the Middle East,” the outlet noted.

The International Energy Agency said oil from a record stockpile release will be made available in Asia immediately to replace barrels lost to Iran war-related disruptions. https://t.co/zx6SvbOIWg

— Bloomberg (@business) March 15, 2026

Though UKMTO reports that there have been no confirmed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman or Arabian Gulf in the past 72 hours, the situation there remains “at a critical level due to recent attack patterns, continued navigation interference, and persistent operational disruption, to include port facilities, across the region.”

The heavy consumption of MICA air-to-air missiles used by French Air Force Rafale pilots to intercept Iranian Shahed drones over the UAE is creating tensions in Paris, according to the French La Tribune news outlet.

 “A crisis meeting is convened Tuesday by Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron  to find solutions to maintain capacities over time,” the publication reported.

« Depuis une quinzaine de jours, les pilotes français de Rafale ont intercepté plusieurs dizaines de drones Shahed en tirant des missiles air-air MICA avec un taux de réussite très élevé. » https://t.co/aJPMisCgE9

— MENA Defense & Security 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇬🇱 (@Arn_Del) March 15, 2026

Contact the authors: tyler@twz.com

howard@twz.com

Tyler’s passion is the study of military technology, strategy, and foreign policy and he has fostered a dominant voice on those topics in the defense media space. He was the creator of the hugely popular defense site Foxtrot Alpha before developing The War Zone.


Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for The War Zone, and a former Senior Managing Editor for Military Times. Prior to this, he covered military affairs for the Tampa Bay Times as a Senior Writer. Howard’s work has appeared in various publications including Yahoo News, RealClearDefense, and Air Force Times.




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Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia denies attacks on its oil facilities | US-Israel war on Iran News

Alireza Enayati says relations with Saudi Arabia are ‘progressing naturally’ and he’s in direct contact with Saudi officials.

Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia denied Tehran is responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, saying if it was behind the strikes, it would have announced it.

Alireza Enayati did not suggest who carried out the attacks, but added Iran is only attacking United States and Israeli military targets and interests during the ongoing war, Reuters news agency quoted him as saying on Sunday.

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After the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, Tehran retaliated against US and Israeli military assets, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Last week, the Ras Tanura oil refinery was forced to stop operations after debris from a drone caused a small fire. Attempted attacks were also reported on the Shaybah oilfield in the desert near the border with the UAE.

So far, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry has not blamed anyone for the attacks.

Enayati said he’s in direct contact with Saudi officials, explaining that relations are “progressing naturally” in many areas.

Talks included Saudi Arabia’s publicly stated position that its land, sea, and air would not be used to target Iran. He didn’t elaborate.

Iran and Saudi Arabia re-established diplomatic relations in 2023, in a deal brokered by China, that saw the two sides, which backed rival groups across the region, agree on a new chapter in bilateral relations.

‘Reliance on external powers’

Enayati reiterated to the Gulf states that the war “has been imposed on us and the region” following coordinated US and Israeli attacks.

Asked about the attacks on Gulf nations, Enayati replied: “We are neighbours, and we cannot do without each other; we will need a serious review.”

“What the region has witnessed over the past five decades is the result of an exclusionary approach and an excessive reliance on external powers,” he said, calling for deeper ties between the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six members along with Iraq and Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also denied his country is targeting civilian or residential areas in the Middle East, and said Tehran is ready to form a committee with its neighbours to investigate the responsibility for such strikes.

So far, the UAE, which normalised relations with Israel in 2020, has faced the brunt of Iran’s attacks, with US bases and oil refineries heavily targeted.

While all countries targeted have strongly condemned Iran’s missile and drone strikes, regional sources say there remains growing frustration at the United States for dragging them into a war they did not sign up for but are now paying the heaviest price for, Reuters reported.

Enayati said to resolve the conflict, the US and Israel need to stop their attacks, and international security guarantees to prevent future “aggression” must be given.

Paul Musgrave, associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said the administration of US President Donald Trump has lost much of its leverage in the region, and the US engaged in the wrong conflict at the wrong moment, without proper planning.

Iran’s strategy, meanwhile, now seems to be “not who has a bigger bomb or bigger munitions, but who has the highest threshold for pain”, Musgrave told Al Jazeera.

INTERACTIVE - DEATH TOLL - tracker - war - US Israel and Iran attacks - March 15, 2026-1773559836

 

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What is force majeure and why are some Gulf countries invoking it? | US-Israel war on Iran

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Several Gulf energy producers have declared force majeure on oil and gas shipments after disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli war on Iran. Al Jazeera’s Alma Milisic explains what the legal term means and how it could affect global energy markets.

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Ukraine eyes money and tech in return for Middle East drone support | US-Israel war on Iran News

Ukraine’s leader previously said advisers were sent to Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to help thwart Iranian drone attacks.

Ukraine wants money and technology as payback after sending specialists to the Middle East to help down Iranian drones during the ongoing Israel-United States war with Iran.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters on Sunday that three teams were sent to the region to undertake expert assessments and demonstrate how drone defences work as countries in the Middle East continue to be targeted by Iran over hosting US military bases.

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“This is not about being involved in operations. We are not at war with Iran,” Zelenskyy said.

Earlier this week, Ukraine’s leader announced military teams were sent to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and a US military base in Jordan.

But he explained that more long-term drone deals could be negotiated with Gulf countries, and what Kyiv gets in return for its assistance still needs to be established.

“For us today, both the technology and the funding are important,” Zelenskyy said.

Throughout the four-year Russia-Ukraine war, Moscow has widely used Iranian Shahed-136 “suicide” drones, giving Kyiv expertise in knowing how to down the unmanned aerial vehicles through cheap drone interceptors, electronic jamming tools, and anti-aircraft weaponry.

However, US President Donald Trump has said he does not need Ukraine’s help in taking down Iranian drones attacking American targets.

INTERACTIVE - SHAHED 136 drone

‘Rules must be tightened’

Zelenskyy said he doesn’t know why Washington hasn’t signed a drone agreement with Kyiv, which it has pushed for months.

“I wanted to sign a deal worth about $35bn–50bn,” he said.

Still, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with no end in sight, Zelenskyy raised concerns that the ongoing war in the Middle East will impact Kyiv’s supplies of air defence missiles.

“We would very much not like the United States to step away from the issue of Ukraine because of the Middle East,” he told reporters.

But as interest has grown for Ukrainian drone interceptors in light of the war, Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s rules to buy the drones must be tightened, with foreign countries and firms being unable to bypass the government and talk directly to manufacturers.

“Unfortunately, representatives of certain governments or companies want to bypass the Ukrainian state to purchase specific equipment,” Zelensky told reporters.

“Even in some free countries, we do not initially receive contracts from the private sector. A contract comes to me through the political channel. Only then does the private sector start negotiating with us.”

 

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How Congress became an afterthought in the war with Iran

Secretary of State Marco Rubio had some explaining to do when he arrived on Capitol Hill for a classified briefing with lawmakers in early March.

Members of Congress wanted to know why, two days earlier on Feb. 28, the United States and Israel had attacked Iran and killed its supreme leader — without notifying them first. After the briefing, Rubio told reporters the U.S. preemptively struck Iran to get ahead of an Israeli attack. A day later, he tried to clarify his remarks.

“The bottom line is this: The president determined we were not going to get hit first,” Rubio said. “It’s that simple, guys.”

For members of Congress, the moment underscored how marginal a role Congress has been able to play in a war that, two weeks in, has spread into more than a dozen neighboring countries, led to the deaths of at least 13 American service members and cost billions of dollars.

In the two weeks since the war began, Congress has largely been sidelined. Lawmakers have cycled through classified briefings, TV interviews and hallway scrums with reporters, but have taken little formal action related to Trump’s war efforts — just two unsuccessful votes aimed at limiting the conflict.

Most of the debate has taken place online, where some GOP lawmakers have drawn rebukes from colleagues for saying America “needs more Islamophobia” and other Islamophobic rhetoric about Iran and its people.

At the same time, Trump has pressed Congress to focus instead on a controversial voting law, signaling to the Republican-led Congress that he wants their focus on the election rather than a historic moment abroad. The president, meanwhile, has offered shifting explanations on how much longer he intends to be at war in the Middle East, telling Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade on Friday that he will conclude the hostilities when “I feel it in my bones.”

Taking Trump’s statements at face value, Democrats and some Republicans have begun to worry that more American troops could be deployed inside Iran to complete the mission — and lawmakers are still trying to understand the war’s threat to the global energy markets as fighting encroaches on the Strait of Hormuz and Americans face soaring gas prices.

The Republican majorities have for the most part rallied behind President Trump, and have blocked measures in both the House and Senate that would have halted the war against Iran and forced him to seek congressional approval for additional hostilities.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) likened efforts to rein in Trump’s war efforts to siding “with the enemy.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) was even more effusive, arguing there is a precedent for presidents using military force without congressional authority.

“The norm in this country is not to declare war by Congress, but for the military to be used by the commander in chief. Sometimes authorization from the Congress is requested, sometimes it is not,” Graham said during a Senate floor speech. “More than not, it is not requested.”

Presidents have frequently used military force without a formal declaration of war — including in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq — but experts argue there is a difference between bypassing a formal declaration and sidelining Congress altogether.

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who served under President Obama, pointed to the 2011 raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind behind the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, as an example of how the process once worked.

Even though it was a covert Special Forces operation, Panetta said, he personally briefed key congressional leaders before Bin Laden’s killing took place.

That kind of consultation, he said, no longer happens. Instead, lawmakers learn about military operations the same way ordinary Americans do — by watching the news — and then demand to be briefed, he said.

“By that time, the country is pretty much committed to war,” Panetta said.

Presidents of both parties have expanded their power to wage war unilaterally, but Panetta said he believes Trump has crossed a new threshold by dispensing not just with congressional approval but with the courtesy of a briefing.

“It’s not good for our democracy. It’s not a good process,” he said. “It’s not what our forefathers would have wanted.”

Rubio, however, has argued the administration has kept congressional leaders apprised. He told reporters there is no legal requirement to notify all members of Congress and that he briefed the Gang of Eight — a group made up of the top Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate, as well as the leaders of the respective intelligence committees — within 48 hours of the attack against Iran.

“We notified congressional leadership,” Rubio said. “The law says we have to notify them 48 hours after beginning hostilities. We’ve done that.”

In the statement issued Friday, the White House defended the president’s approach to the war in relation to how its involved Congress, adding that Trump and administration officials “continue to keep bipartisan lawmakers in Congress apprised of the operation as the United States continues to dominate.”

“Past presidents have talked about this for 47 years — but only President Trump has had the courage to do something about it,” White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said.

Democrats say they’re ‘flying blind’

Democratic lawmakers, including some who have been included in classified briefings, have accused administration officials of keeping them “in the dark” and are beginning to demand public congressional hearings.

“I want this administration to testify in public, under oath, regarding a bunch of questions we have in order for the American people to see for themselves,” said Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles). “I do believe this administration has lied to the American public and Congress.”

Gomez, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said he never expected that he would have to spend so much time trying to discern if the administration is lying to lawmakers.

“I think it’s that’s what makes the job harder,” he said.

Democrats, who are in the minority, have limited power to call those briefings, but have continued to put pressure on the administration in a public way.

Senate Democrats last week sent a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, demanding answers by Wednesday about reports that a U.S. airstrike hit an Iranian elementary school.

Iranian officials said the explosion killed at least 175 people, most of them children. The U.S. has not taken responsibility for the attack, and Hegseth has said the matter is under investigation. Trump, without providing evidence, has claimed Iran was responsible for the attack.

Seeking answers has been a common theme among Democrats since the start of the war. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), for instance, said after a classified briefing last week that he had “left with more questions than answers” and a real concern about the possibility of deploying American troops to Iran.

Power of the purse

If the war continues, Congress still retains some leverage.

Under the War Powers Resolution passed by Congress in 1973, unauthorized deployments into hostile situations must end after 60 days unless Congress votes to declare war or passes legislation authorizing the use of the military.

Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), who sits on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he has told Hegseth and Rubio that if they violate that provision it will be like “stealing money” for actions that are not approved by Congress and warned they could be held civilly liable.

The 60-day deadline will be a key moment for Congress to step in, Sherman said; otherwise there will be growing concern about Trump having “unchecked power.”

So far, he thinks Republicans in control view their job as “butler to the president,” and that the Constitution already gives Trump “too much power over the military.”

“If Congress is controlled by people who want to be servants to the president, it’s going to do an incredibly bad job of being a check on the president,” he said.

Beyond the War Powers Resolution, lawmakers also have power over the appropriations process and could deny the administration’s request to boost military funding.

“The Congress can stop military action by cutting off funding. If you don’t like the war in Iran, say we won’t pay for it. We have the constitutional power of the purse,” Graham said in a Senate floor speech early in March.

The Trump administration’s war with Iran cost $11.3 billion during its first six days, according to the Associated Press.

But Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Diego), who sits on the House Appropriations Committee, says he is aware of the figure only because of news reports — not because the Pentagon has been transparent.

“We are flying blind in the sense that we just don’t know. We don’t know how much is being spent or what it’s being spent on,” Levin said.

Levin says the military will probably need to bolster its munitions stockpile at the rate the conflict is going.

If the Pentagon does request more money, Levin said, he would try to ensure that “not one more dollar goes toward any of this without clear answers and a clear plan.”

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Finalissima: Argentina v Spain match set for Qatar cancelled because of Middle East war

BBC Sport has contacted the Argentine FA for comment.

Uefa said: “Argentina made a counter suggestion to play the game after the World Cup but, as Spain has no available dates, that option had to be ruled out.”

The Spanish FA said, external it had “worked intensively” to get the game on in any format possible, whether in Spain or at a neutral venue.

It said: “Spain was prepared to play as it has always been stated. They set no conditions.

“Spain, together with Uefa, has offered all possibilities.”

On Saturday the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Formula 1 Grands Prix due to be held in April were cancelled.

Formula 1 said it is not safe to stage the races because of the conflict across the region.

The Finalissima, which is staged every four years and is organised by Uefa and the South American Football Confederation (Conmebol), was last won by Argentina at Wembley in 2022.

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How Trump’s unchecked power has changed the world | US-Israel war on Iran News

The decision by United States President Donald Trump to launch a war on Iran has left many international law experts questioning if the world order established after World War II is actually working.

In his second presidential term, Trump seems to be wielding total power without restraint, and the system of checks and balances enshrined in the US Constitution appears to be failing to limit his power.

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Since Trump was sworn in in January 2025, he has ordered two unprovoked attacks on independent states, Venezuela and Iran; threatened to annex Greenland; strained traditional alliances with Europe; undermined the United Nations; and rattled international trade with his sweeping tariffs.

Previous constraints set by the UN system and international law appear supplanted by what Trump told reporters in January was a vision of power limited only by his “own morality”.

Trump holds up a key in front of the FIFA Club Cup Trophy
President Donald Trump holds the key to unlock the FIFA Club World Cup trophy, which he said is staying at the White House, requiring a replica to be presented to the tournament’s winners, Chelsea, in July 2025 [File: Pool via AP]

So what checks are there on Trump? Is he really free to attack states, set tariffs at will and, as leader of the world’s most powerful state, essentially dictate global policy? And if so, why are so many observers now saying his war on Iran is faltering?

Has international law put any checks on Trump?

Not so far.

According to analysts, both his attacks on Venezuela and Iran were in clear breach of international law and the UN Charter, principally the prohibition on the use of force under Article 2(4).

Debates about international law, how it has been geared over the decades to underpin the interests of the West and the US specifically, are hardly new. However, experts said, the Trump presidency has seen even the notional restraints of international law trampled underfoot.

Trump himself has brushed aside international law, saying in January that it would be up to him to decide when and how much international law applied to the US and his actions.

“In many respects, international law has historically served US interests, and self-interest should continue to generate US support for a rules-based order organised around the core principles enshrined in the UN Charter,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin who previously worked at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, told Al Jazeera, “But finding value in international law often requires adopting a long-term outlook that does not sit easily with short-term political agendas.”

“In the current geopolitical climate, the capacity of international law to provide a meaningful constraint on US action under Donald Trump has proven negligible,” Becker added. “That seems unlikely to change, especially given the failure by other states to strike a united front against Trump’s gangsterism.”

What about the UN?

Not so much.

From its founding, the role of the UN has been to promote dialogue instead of conflict and provide a global response to international challenges. However, Trump’s relationship with the body, like so many of the president’s associations, has rarely been so straightforward. On the one hand, while appearing to try to supplant the body with his members-only Board of Peace as well as sidelining UN aid efforts in Gaza, he has on occasion sought the legitimacy of the UN for a number of his projects, such as his calls in August for the UN to establish a Support Office in Haiti, to help limit migration to the US.

However, while the support of the UN may be helpful, it is clear that Trump has no intention of abiding by its charter, Richard Gowan, the Crisis Group’s UN director from 2019 to 2025, said.

“While other UN members see the US is breaking international law on a regular basis, they often hold back from criticising Washington too loudly in forums like the Security Council because they fear blowback from Trump,” Gowan said. “So Trump is learning he can sidestep the UN when he wants to and get away with it while occasionally using it for instrumental purposes.”

What about other powers?

Up to a point.

Many countries known as “middle powers”, such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and other Western and European states, have proven successful so far in pushing back against Trump’s efforts to unilaterally annex Greenland. But European powers have failed to condemn Trump’s unprovoked war on Venezuela and Iran, exposing their double standards in conflicts in the Middle East and the Global South.

Many analysts expect that a withdrawal of investments in the US by Gulf states, which are bearing the brunt of Iran’s retaliation to US and Israeli attacks, may also hasten the war’s end.

“Middle powers can generate friction but not a veto,” HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London said. “Collective action – European governments, Gulf states – can raise costs and extract tactical adjustments. The structural imbalance remains: The US retains decisive military, financial and institutional primacy.”

Smaller states often hedge their bets, follow Washington or look to regional alliances for protection, Hellyer added, continuing that while pressure was strongest in Europe, where the US is no longer seen as a reliable security guarantor, the idea of establishing an alternative continues to be a hurdle. “The logic of an alternative model is accepted; the capacity to execute it quickly is not. A prolonged interregnum follows. The Gulf Arab states are in an analogous position,” he said.

In the meantime, Trump and the US are free to act as they choose. “These are exposure-management strategies, pursued until structural dependence on the US security umbrella can be reduced,” he said.

China and Russia have so far criticised the breaches of international law while avoiding clear escalation, and India and other members of the BRICS bloc have largely stayed silent, suggesting a preference for strategic ambiguity over confronting Washington directly.

Mark Carney
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Trump of a ‘rupture’ in the Western alliance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2026 [File: Denis Balibouse/Reuters]

What about domestic restraints?

Not really.

The US Supreme Court was able to block Trump’s use of tariffs to manage large parts of his foreign policy by rewarding allies with lower tariffs and punishing critics with punitive import duties.

But none of the other traditional guardrails – such as Congress; the Department of Justice, which has provided unwavering support to the president; and even the news media – has contained the president’s ambitions. This isn’t entirely new. Previous presidents have ordered wars without congressional approval. However, with Trump, analysts suggested, it has been systematic.

Powerful US institutions have largely failed to hold the Trump administration accountable, analysts, such as Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of international affairs at Princeton University, said.

“His base of strong supporters are saying that they are willing to experience short-term increases in gasoline prices if it leads to a friendly government in Iran in the long term. His opponents have been his opponents on everything, so he simply ignores and threatens them,” Scheppele told Al Jazeera.

“Trump pays more attention to market performance than to public opinion, so he started saying that he was minimising costs and saying that the Iran war is short term to boost markets again.”

“What the US is spectacularly missing is leadership to oppose Trump. Congress is not doing its constitutional job to constrain him. The Supreme Court is in his pocket because he packed the court in his first term. Lower court judges are heroic and have done amazing work under serious pressures, but they don’t get foreign policy questions, given the difficulty of anyone getting ‘standing’ … in the area of international matters,” she said, referring to the requirement that parties to a lawsuit must show actual or future direct harm to themselves to bring a case to court.

She noted that lower federal courts, although limited on foreign policy, have repeatedly checked executive overreach on immigration, sanctions designations and emergency powers, often under intense political pressure.

The Galaxy Globe bulk carrier and the Luojiashan tanker sit anchored as Iran vows to close the Strait of Hormuz, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Muscat, Oman, March 9, 2026. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A bulk carrier and tanker at anchor in Muscat, Oman, as Iran has essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz by threatening to attack vessels transiting the waterway [File: Benoit Tessier/Reuters]

So why are so many people saying Trump’s war is faltering?

In the eyes of many observers, Trump, with no clear war aims or a defined resolution, is in danger of losing control of a conflict that appears to be both growing and reaching into economic areas apparently unforeseen by his administration, so while traditional restraints don’t apply, market forces, like gravity, always do.

Trump has repeatedly said the war would be over soon despite none of his claimed war aims being achieved.

Oil prices have surged due to his attacks on Iran, Tehran’s counterstrikes and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes.

The International Energy Agency’s decision on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from international petroleum reserves has failed to tame the prices. Iran has warned that oil could hit $200 a barrel as it continues its stranglehold of the waterway.

“Ultimately, the factors that might be most likely to constrain Donald Trump’s neoimperialist impulses – or his willingness to pursue the policy goals of those who have his ear – are the economic fallout from disrupting global energy markets and a broader disenchantment among US voters with his globe-trotting militarism, his rampant self-dealing and his callous disregard for the human costs of war,” Becker said.

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Trump’s war rhetoric is coarse. It’s also heard differently, depending on the audience

In one of his latest missives on social media, President Trump complained that he wasn’t getting enough credit for “totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise.”

“We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time,” he wrote of a war that has crippled the global supply of oil, sharply increased gas prices, cost U.S. taxpayers billions, left thousands dead and wounded, and so far defied Trump’s own “short term” timetable.

“Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today,” Trump added. “They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!”

Again and again in recent days, Trump and other top officials in his administration — notably Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — have projected confidence and power in Iran in a coarse and triumphant tone that is unprecedented for U.S. wartime presidents and their Cabinet members, according to experts in presidential rhetoric and propaganda.

They have consistently described the war in terms of how hard the U.S. is hitting Iran, rather than why it must do so. They’ve talked of destroying the Iranian navy and air force, wiping out its leadership and making the U.S. “more respected” globally than it has ever been, including by showing no mercy.

“This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be,” Hegseth said.

Missing is the solemnity of past wartime leaders facing dead U.S. soldiers, a recalcitrant enemy and a precarious tactical position, replaced by a message of U.S. mercilessness — of contempt for Iran rather than concern for its civilians or a focus on the American ideals that U.S. presidents have long tried to rally the world around, especially in times of war.

“At a time when people can see the effects of the war when they fill up their gas tank, and when there have been American casualties, the triumphalist tone is just not something a president normally does,” said Robert C. Rowland, a professor of rhetoric at the University of Kansas and author of the book “The Rhetoric of Donald Trump: Nationalist Populism and American Democracy.”

“Many presidents wouldn’t have that tone for personal moral reasons,” Rowland said, “but they also know that it can backfire when things don’t go well.”

James J. Kimble, a communication professor and propaganda historian at Seton Hall University, said U.S. presidents have “by and large” struck a respectful tone in wartime, though there are some exceptions. President Truman, justifying dropping atomic bombs on Japan, wrote that “when you have to deal with a beast, you have to treat him as a beast,” while the U.S. produced World War II posters designed to “demonize and dehumanize the German enemy,” he noted.

Still, Trump’s messaging — including his “expressing glee at the death of foreign combatants” — has been “much coarser,” Kimble said.

“It’s moving beyond the idea of defeating the enemy on the field of battle, and more into a kind of defeat as humiliation — intentional humiliation,” he said. “It’s schoolyard bullying, along with the physical violence.”

Asked about Trump’s rhetoric, Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said Trump “will always be proud to recognize the incredible accomplishments of our brave service members.”

“Under the decisive leadership of President Trump, America’s heroic war fighters are meeting or surpassing all of their goals under Operation Epic Fury,” she said. “The legacy media wants us to apologize for highlighting the United States military’s incredible success, but the White House will continue showcasing the many examples of Iran’s ballistic missiles, production facilities, and dreams of owning a nuclear weapon being destroyed in real time.”

Trump has built his political career around blunt rhetoric, and his messaging on Iran has drawn applause from his supporters. Polling has shown the public is heavily divided on the war — drawing far less public support than past wars, but broad support from Republicans.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has accused the media of ignoring “clear” objectives that the president and others have set for the war effort, including wiping out Iran’s missile systems, preventing it from developing a nuclear weapon and stopping what Trump had a “feeling” was a coming attack on the U.S.

However, Trump and Hegseth have themselves strayed from that framework with their brash rhetoric, and their focus on the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders.

Trump has dismissed reports that the U.S. bombed an Iranian school full of children by suggesting that Iran may actually have been responsible, despite reported findings by U.S. intelligence that it was an American attack.

Hegseth has added to concerns about careless U.S. bombing by expressing disdain for wartime rules designed to limit civilian casualties, calling them “stupid rules of engagement.”

“Our war fighters have maximum authorities granted personally by the president and yours truly,” Hegseth said. “Our rules of engagement are bold, precise and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it.”

The White House has also pushed out a wave of wartime propaganda on social media, often striking the same irreverent, bullish tone, experts noted.

One video interspersed movie clips of superheroes and soldiers with real footage of Iranian targets getting blown up, under the words, “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY.” The clip drew condemnation, including from the actor Ben Stiller, who objected to the inclusion of footage from his film “Tropic Thunder,” saying, “War is not a movie.”

Hegseth’s bravado has also been caricatured on “Saturday Night Live,” which opened two weeks in a row with a satirical portrayal of him as angry, dimwitted and hyped up on the violence of war.

All of it has come against a backdrop of Islamophobic remarks from members of Congress on X, with Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) writing that “Muslims don’t belong in American society” and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) posting a picture of the 9/11 terrorist attack next to an image of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who is Muslim, and writing “the enemy is inside the gates.”

Certainly Iranian leaders have expressed similar contempt for the U.S. for years. Khamenei, killed at the start of the war, was known for stoking anti-American sentiment, speaking to crowds amid chants of “death to America.”

However, U.S. presidents have traditionally spoken with more reserve. They have slammed U.S. enemies, but often by drawing a contrast between them, the U.S. and the values the U.S. purports to defend globally. They have expressed confidence in past U.S. missions, but been wary of taking a celebratory or triumphant tone — especially at the start of a war, amid intense fighting, as American troops are still dying.

Not so with Trump, who on Wednesday said, “You never like to say too early you won. We won. We won … . In the first hour, it was over.”

He also said, “Over the past 11 days, our military has virtually destroyed Iran,” and “they don’t have anything.”

On Thursday, six U.S. service members were killed when a refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq. On Friday, the U.S. military announced it was sending 2,500 Marines and an additional U.S. warship to the conflict.

Kimble said there are several ways to view Trump’s war rhetoric. One is “through the lens of PSYOPS, or psychological operations” — or intentional messaging aimed at discouraging the enemy, akin to the U.S. dropping leaflets in World War II telling foreign combatants that they must surrender or die. In that view, Trump is speaking directly to the Iranians, trying to get them to “perceive victory as impossible.”

Another is to view Trump and Hegseth as projecting a tough image for their MAGA base, their Democratic rivals and any other nations they might be preparing to challenge, such as Cuba.

Rowland said Trump “always has to be the big dog in the room,” and his war messaging should be viewed in that context.

“A lot of the rhetoric is performative cruelty,” Rowland said. “It’s more about him coming across as dominant than it is about making a case that the war has been good for the U.S. and the region and the West and the world.”

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Trump is searching for an endgame to the Iran war

After two weeks of war with Iran, the Trump administration is being forced to temper its expectations of a swift end to the conflict, with U.S. intelligence and defense officials expressing doubt it can achieve the overthrow of Iran’s government and the destruction of its nuclear program through military means.

It was an outcome forewarned by analysts at the State Department, the CIA and the Pentagon, who together alerted the administration to the pitfalls full-scale war with Iran would bring before President Trump decided to proceed, two U.S. officials told The Times, granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Certain military goals of Operation Epic Fury laid out at the start of the war are still seen as achievable at the Pentagon, with U.S. and Israeli strikes making steady progress degrading Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure, its drone program and its navy.

But a prewar U.S. intelligence assessment, that an air assault was unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic, still holds, with the intelligence community now casting doubt the assault had any more political effect than to radicalize a government already devoted to the destruction of Israel and harming the United States.

The casket of Ali Shamkhani, Iran's slain influential security adviser, proceeds during a military procession at his funeral

A military procession in Tehran carries the casket of Ali Shamkhani, political advisor to Iran’s last Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was also killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks.

(Atta Kenare / AFP/Getty Images)

Concern has only grown that Iran’s new government will make the fateful strategic decision to build a bomb after the war, unless Trump decides to escalate the conflict with a perilous ground invasion. And the White House now contends with a new mission imperative, created by its decision to launch the war itself, of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to vital shipping traffic that carries 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquid natural gas supply.

The foreign policy strategy Trump publicly laid out as his playbook for the conflict — to come down hard on the government, decapitating its leadership, and hope the remnants would seek mercy — has not worked, with Tehran looking for new ways to expand the war and maximize pain for the U.S. administration.

Trump has minimized the conflict as an “excursion” that would end “very soon,” while also calling it a war, vowing to take the time he needs to “finish the job.” He says it will conclude whenever he decides to end it.

It remains possible that a declaration from Trump that the fighting is over results in a ceasefire, as it did in June of last year, when Trump demanded an end to 12 days of war between Iran and Israel. But the Iranians have a vote, too — and senior leadership in the Islamic Republic have made plain they plan to continue fighting this time whether Trump likes it or not.

On Friday, the Pentagon announced that an additional expeditionary unit of 2,500 Marines was being deployed to the region to support the effort.

“Starting wars is an easy matter,” Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote on social media. “Ending them does not happen with a few tweets.

“We will not leave you until you admit your mistake and pay its price,” he added.

It is a sore lesson for a president whose decade in public life has been distinguished by an exceptional ability to warp reality to his liking.

“The White House has created a dilemma for America: If it declares victory and ends the war, it leaves in place a weakened Iranian government with the means and renewed motivation to pursue nuclear weapons,” said Reid Pauly, a professor of nuclear security and policy at Brown University.

“If it presses on with the war,” Pauly added, “it risks the kind of mission creep that may eventually find American boots on the ground.”

In a news release last week, the White House said that, “from the opening hours of this historic campaign, the objectives were clear: obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity, annihilate its navy, sever its support for terrorist proxies, and ensure the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism will never acquire a nuclear weapon.”

Yet, at the start of the operation, Trump issued a promise to the people of Iran that, at the end of the U.S.-Israeli campaign, Iran’s military and paramilitary infrastructure would be so badly hobbled that a rare, generational opportunity would emerge for them to take their government back.

“To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said. “Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”

Trump said in the days that followed he would need to have a say over the next ruler, after assassinating the country’s longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But the Iranian system of clerics and militants defied the president, selecting in Khamenei’s son a man viewed as even more hostile to the West than his father was.

Israeli leadership, too, set out regime change as a goal of the war. Yet even their officials now say that a substantial leadership change in Tehran is an unlikely result.

Trump would go on to insist on the “unconditional surrender” from the Iranian government, a demand that he later said would be satisfied by the incapacitation of Iran’s military.

Repeating his conviction that the war will end soon, Trump told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade in an interview Friday that he would order an end to the fighting “when I feel it. When I feel it in my bones.”

“The problem with the administration’s approach is that it has constantly shifted its goals. Some are achievable, such as degrading Iran’s conventional force. Others are not, such as picking the next leader of Iran,” said Ray Takeyh, a scholar on Iran at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The mixed messages have led to confusion at home,” Takeyh added, “and lack of planning for oil shortages and getting the Americans out of the region shows that process and personnel can actually matter.”

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign was always designed to unfold in three phases: degrading Iran’s ability to wage war, reducing Iran’s ability to repress democratic forces inside the country, and finally, encouraging the Iranian people to rise up.

“The president controls the strategy, but no president fully controls the endgame because the regime gets a vote,” Dubowitz said. “The endgame is not a scripted political transition directed from Washington. It is a regime under simultaneous military, economic, and internal pressure — to strip of its war-making and repression capabilities — and whether that produces succession, fracture, or collapse will ultimately be decided in Tehran.”

Whether the conflict will achieve the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program is an equally grave question in Washington, where officials are debating over a list of stark options on how to physically destroy, bury or retrieve the fissile material that Tehran could use to build a nuclear weapon — a threat seen as only more grave under the stewardship of an angry and vengeful government.

“The war was publicly justified, to the extent it was justified at all, in terms of destroying Iran’s nuclear program. Very few strikes have been directed against nuclear-related targets, however — almost certainly because those that survived last June’s attacks are invulnerable to air attack,” said James Acton, co‑director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Unless the U.S. and Israel attempt high-risk special forces operations or a ground incursion,” he added, “Iran will end the war with its surviving nuclear infrastructure largely intact and greater incentives to build the bomb.”

Pauly agreed it is unrealistic to expect the United States and Israel can destroy Iran’s nuclear program through air power alone. The U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency believes Iran has roughly 440 kilograms — about 970 pounds — of 60% highly enriched uranium, possibly spread across multiple facilities.

“Securing this material will require either U.S. ground troops or, after some coercive bargain is reached, international inspectors,” Pauly said.

In an exchange with reporters last week at the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had few details to offer on what U.S. options were to remove or eliminate an accessible uranium stockpile, enriched to near weapons grade, that had been buried in a U.S. operation last year intended on obliterating the nuclear threat.

Diplomacy, he suggested, might be required to secure the material.

“I will say we have a range of options, up to and including Iran deciding that they will give those up,” he told reporters, “which of course we would welcome.”

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US-Israeli strike kills 15 at Isfahan factory, Iranian media says | US-Israel war on Iran News

Iranian media report the deaths in central Iran as Tehran launches new missile salvoes at Israeli targets.

A missile strike on an industrial area of the central Iranian city of Isfahan has killed at least 15 people, with workers having been inside a factory at the time of the attack, Iranian media reports.

The strike hit a factory producing heating and cooling equipment on Saturday, a working day in Iran, according to the semi-official Fars news agency, which attributed the attack to US and Israeli forces.

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It came on the 15th day of a conflict that Iran’s Ministry of Health says has now killed at least 1,444 people and wounded more than 18,500 since the US-Israeli attacks began on February 28.

Cities across Iran have been repeatedly targeted following the onset of hostilities.

On March 8, shelling damaged Russia’s consulate in Isfahan, injuring staff, with Moscow calling the strike a “blatant violation” of international conventions.

 

Iran’s Ministry of Culture said on Saturday that 56 museums and historic sites had been damaged, including Naqsh-e Jahan Square, a 17th-century centrepiece of Isfahan, and the UNESCO-listed Golestan Palace in Tehran.

UNESCO said it was “deeply concerned,” noting that four of Iran’s 29 World Heritage Sites had been affected.

Separately on Saturday, Iran’s army confirmed that Brigadier General Abdullah Jalali-Nasab had been killed in an Israeli attack, saying he was “martyred while defending the country”.

Earlier, US forces also struck Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports, though a regional official said operations were continuing normally, and there were no casualties.

US President Donald Trump had previously threatened to target the island’s oil infrastructure if Tehran continued to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.

Any prospect of negotiations appears remote. The Trump administration has rebuffed regional efforts to broker a ceasefire, with a senior White House official telling the Reuters news agency the president is focused on pressing ahead.

“He’s not interested in that right now, and we’re going to continue with the mission unabated,” the official said.

Iran has equally ruled out talks while the attacks continue, Reuters reported, citing an anonymous Iranian official.

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi struck a defiant tone on Saturday, saying the US security framework in the region had “proven to be full of holes” and calling on neighbours to “expel foreign aggressors”.

Israeli Minister of Defence Israel Katz said the war was entering a “decisive phase”, which would “continue as long as necessary”.

Iran launched new missile salvoes at Israel on Saturday, with explosions heard over Jerusalem, according to reporters from the AFP news agency.

Six waves of missiles, some carrying cluster bomb warheads, struck wide areas of the country, the Israeli army said. In Eilat, a cluster munition impact injured three people, including a 12-year-old boy, according to The Times of Israel.

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