SACRAMENTO — Xavier Becerra is poised to make history as California’s first elected Latino governor, according to a new poll.
But the survey shows voters, and Latinos in particular, have mixed views on the significance and impact of Becerra’s probable win.
According to the poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, the veteran Democratic politician was backed by 61% of likely California voters, compared with 34% who supported his Republican rival, former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton. That is slightly up from a September IGS survey that showed Becerra leading by 25 percentage points.
“He’s solidified almost unanimous support now among Democrats. Republicans are almost unanimous in the other direction,” IGS Poll Director Mark DiCamillo said.
Becerra, a former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, congressman and state attorney general, “hasn’t offended any significant parts of the Democratic Party” and has united the party’s voters by “hammering away” against President Trump, DiCamillo said.
When asked to name one or two top priorities for the election, 40% of likely voters chose pushing back against the Trump administration, followed by 34% who cited reducing the cost of living. It’s a reversal from the mid-September survey, when 44% of likely voters said the cost of living was a top issue and 37% listed fighting Trump.
Both of those issues far outweighed the concerns of California voters about other issues that dominated the political discourse in past elections, including fighting crime, creating jobs and improving public education and healthcare.
Becerra’s supporters “are over the top on fighting Trump administration policies,” DiCamillo said. “I mean, 62% of his supporters state that as their greatest concern in this election. It’s really uniting the Democrats.”
The veteran pollster attributed the surge in anti-Trump sentiment in recent weeks to actions that “irritate” Democrats, such as the federal government’s quest to find illegal voting in California elections, continuing immigration raids and the president’s downplaying voter concerns about inflation and gas prices.
The survey reveals a generational split between voters: Those younger than 50 were more likely to name the cost of living as a top issue, while voters 50 and older were more likely to name Trump’s policies.
Latino voters were more evenly split between the two issues, and more focused on other needs than voters of other ethnic and racial groups. They were more likely to list priorities including reducing taxes, fighting crime and protecting immigrant communities than white, Black, or Asian American likely voters.
Days before voting ends in the Nov. 3 election, 53% of likely voters have a favorable view of Becerra and 41% see him unfavorably. Hilton’s image continues its upside-down trend: 56% view him unfavorably and 34% have a positive opinion.
“There’s been a lot of negative campaigning by Hilton, but it doesn’t seem to have had any impact,” DiCamillo said. “Becerra is just riding high on his image rating with the voters. This is the highest image rating we’ve measured for him.”
The survey asked voters whom they expected to win the race, regardless of which candidate they are supporting. Ninety percent of Democrats and 80% of voters not affiliated with a major party expected Becerra to win. Half of Republicans and 58% of those who identify as MAGA said they believed Hilton will win — a striking number in a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 and the GOP has not won a statewide race in 20 years.
“They are hoping against hope,” DiCamillo said.
If he wins Tuesday’s election to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, Becerra would become the first-ever Latino elected governor and the first Latino in that office in 150 years.
Becerra’s support among Latino and white voters closely mirrors that of the overall electorate, with 60% favoring him. Becerra received a warmer reception from Black and Asian American voters in the state, according to the poll.
Asked how they felt about the possibility of electing a Latino governor, just over a third of all likely voters and 45% of Latino voters said they felt “proud.” But majorities of both groups — 52% of Latino voters and 58% of likely voters — believe electing the state’s first Latino governor is either “not too important” or “not at all important.”
For better or worse, voters also have low expectations about the impact of a potentially historic election.
Sixty-one percent of likely Latino voters, and 57% of total voters surveyed, do not believe that having a Latino governor would reduce racial inequalities in the state. And similar numbers doubt it would worsen racial tensions.
Among Latino voters, 40% believed electing a Latino governor would ease fear in their communities, but 43% disagreed. The remainder had no opinion.
“While greater than 4 in 10 Latinos feel proud and think it is important to elect a Latino governor, they also recognize that it will take much more than a single elected official to ease the fears and difficulties experienced by the Latino immigrant community,” IGS Co-Director G. Cristina Mora said. “With Trump still in office and prices still high, Latino voters seem cautious yet hopeful about the new governor.”
The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 19 to Sunday. Responses for the governor’s race poll came from a weighted sample of 1,477 respondents who already voted or were considered likely to vote in the November election, from a larger group of 2,787 registered voters throughout California. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction.
