surges

Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

Mexico’s monarch butterfly population surged 64 percent this winter, raising hopes for the endangered species’ spring migration to the United States and Canada.

Published on 18/03/2026 – 16:20 GMT+1•Updated
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Brent crude oil prices reached $110 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, after Iranian state media reported that part of the South Pars gas field, the largest plant in Iran, and the Asaluyeh oil facility were struck by Israel.

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Moreover, the US oil benchmark WTI also rose and is trading at $98 a barrel at the time of writing.

In response to the latest Israeli attacks, the IRGC announced that some Gulf energy sites are once again “legitimate targets”.

The prospect of escalation and prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, resulting in further destruction of energy infrastructure, and consequently disruption to global markets, has sent oil prices higher once again.

The climb occurs despite other positive news that would normally have a dampening effect on energy markets.

Saudi Arabia confirmed on Wednesday that its biggest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, restarted operations on 13 March.

Additionally, the Trump administration officially announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law that restricts the movement of cargo between US ports to vessels that are American-built, American-owned, American-flagged and crewed.

However, in the face of increased tensions and more attacks on oil infrastructure, these potentially mitigating developments have not had any effect in taming prices.

Trump administration confirms Jones Act waiver

The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the Trump administration’s decision to issue a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act.

The measure lifts the restriction on the movement of cargo between US ports, allowing foreign tankers temporarily and cheaply to transport vital resources such as oil, gas and fertilisers along the US coastline.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Leavitt explained that the decision is “just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”

The last Jones Act waiver was issued in October 2022 for a tanker supplying Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona.

Before that, the Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy, after a cyberattack crippled a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Trump renews pressure on allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz

In a separate development, US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on allies to join a naval escort mission in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz and normalise the circulation of vessels in the region.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump argued that allied countries need to use the Strait of Hormuz while the US does not, and warned that they could be left managing it on their own in the aftermath of the war.

Since President Trump’s original request, no firm commitments have emerged, but on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to join the escort mission.

The report also stated that officials are still deliberating whether such an operation would start before or after the war ends.

After meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers discussed extending the bloc’s Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately declined to participate.

Tourism consultant David Evans has warned that the cost of flying is likely to rise sharply

A travel expert has advised folks to snap up flights now in anticipation of a predicted ‘surge’ in airfare costs. Tourism consultant David Evans revealed that aviation fuel prices have rocketed by 70 per cent in the wake of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live, he suggested that this could soon make flying considerably pricier. This situation is likely to be compounded by the financial strain many airlines are under due to the cancellation of numerous flights amid the unrest in the Middle East.

When asked by host Rachel Burden whether people should book now before flight prices soar, Mr Evans responded: “If you can get a flight that you feel is offering you a really good value-for-money price and it is via somewhere like Singapore (then yes).

“It’s also worth bearing in mind that, once all this blows over, which hopefully won’t be too far off, the Middle Eastern airlines will undoubtedly be introducing some attractive fares into the market to try and recoup the demand they’ve lost over the past few weeks.

“According to the data we’ve seen, the cost of jet fuel has risen by about 70 per cent. Fuel accounts for roughly a quarter of an airline’s operating cost, so the maths are pretty straightforward – if the fuel price is climbing that much, it won’t be long before air fares start to rise. If this carries on for many more weeks, travelling is likely to become more expensive.”

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Mr Evans’ remarks follow revelations that holiday-goers are eschewing Easter trips to traditionally favoured destinations such as Cyprus, Turkey, and Dubai, opting instead for western locations like Spain, Italy, and Portugal, as well as the Caribbean and Mauritius. According to Thomas Cook, bookings to Portugal saw a 42 per cent surge in the fortnight leading up to 13 March.

British Airways has axed some Middle East flight routes until June due to ‘airspace instability’, whilst the UAE and Dubai have been compelled to repeatedly shut down both airports and airspace following retaliatory Iranian strikes. Iraqi officials reported that Iranian strikes over the country on Monday (March 16) were the most intense they had seen throughout the entire war.

“I think the announcement from BA is probably good news in that it gives those people who would otherwise have been in complete limbo thinking, ‘crikey, is this situation going to improve or not over the next few months’ – now they know their flight is cancelled, they can either rebook on a different route or they can get a refund and use the money to either holiday domestically or to go to a different destination, so at least it provides certainty,” Mr Evans added.

“I guess we could say that the 2020s have been a bingo card of doom and this is the square for 2026, but it is also worth saying that the tourism industry and indeed tourists are incredibly resilient.

“Yes, clearly many people are being disrupted if they had either to or from the UK to or via the Middle East, but there are lots of other destinations that are still open for business and lots of other visitors able to get to the UK very easily.”