Experts have given their take on where the Pound is
The Pound is slipping(Image: Cristian Blázquez Martínez via Getty Images)
Experts have urged Brits to buy holiday cash now as the Pound is expected to weaken over this week’s market chaos with a warning that “it’ll hit wallets immediately”. Bond yields have risen sharply, increasing the cost of government borrowing and renewing concerns about whether Britain’s growing public-debt burden is sustainable.
Although higher yields can sometimes support a currency by offering investors better returns, Sterling has weakened as markets focus instead on inflation, rising debt costs and the Government’s limited financial room ahead of the Budget. The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% this month, leaving it caught between supporting economic growth and preventing higher energy and import costs from fuelling another wave of inflation.
For households, a weaker Pound could mean more expensive holidays, fuel, food and other imported goods. Rising gilt yields can also push up swap rates, placing further pressure on fixed mortgage pricing just as many borrowers prepare to refinance.
Dave Huggett, founder of Lucid Foreign Exchange, said there was no need to be patient when buying your holiday cash.
He added: “Higher gilt yields and worries about debt sustainability tend to weigh on the Pound. Not always straight away and not always by much, but it’s one more thing dragging on sentiment. When investors get nervous about a country’s finances, they usually want more reward to hold that currency, or they just move their money elsewhere.
“So what do you do? Buy it all now, or hold in the hope of a recovery. The answer to that always lies in the need, not the want. If you’re buying currency to go on holiday, you basically get what you’re given. ‘Getting it right’ on a few thousand Pounds still doesn’t really move the dial. But if the numbers are bigger, and the situation can afford a bit more patience, then zooming out and looking at the situation objectively often pays.”
Iain Thompson, director of Evolve Finance, said everything was affected by a weaker Pound.
He added: “A sliding Pound is a quiet inflation tax on everyday households. When the Bank of England holds interest rates down while government borrowing costs climb, currency markets lose confidence, causing Sterling to steadily weaken against the Dollar and Euro. For the average person, this isn’t just an abstract financial chart – it’ll hit wallets immediately.
“A weaker Pound means everything the UK imports, from petrol to supermarket groceries, becomes instantly more expensive, keeping domestic inflation sticky. Holidaymakers will feel the sting the fastest at the exchange bureau. If you have a trip planned over the coming months, waiting and hoping for a sudden Sterling recovery is a high-risk gamble.
“While predicting currency is never guaranteed, the downward pressure is real. If your holiday budget is tight, locking in half of your travel cash now protects you from worst-case rate drops, ensuring a sudden currency dip won’t derail your family holiday budget before you even pack your bags.”
Tony Redondo, founder of Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said the Bank of England was between a rock and a hard place.
He added: “Rising UK gilt yields are a double-edged sword for the Pound. At first, they boost Sterling’s appeal, a fatter carry-trade return over rival currencies. But soon markets ask why yields are climbing: borrowing costs rising as investors fret over debt sustainability, with the UK’s debt pile racing toward £3 trillion.
“That leaves the Bank of England boxed in; raise rates to choke off the inflationary wave from Brent crude above $95 or hold rates down to protect growth. My money’s on Sterling grinding lower, toward $1.30 and €1.13 ahead of the 28 October Budget, as fiscal deficits erode investor confidence.
“For consumers, a weaker Pound means pricier holidays abroad and imported inflation with higher supermarket bills, fuel costs, and goods prices. Elevated yields also lift swap rates, pushing fixed mortgage pricing higher. Anyone with confirmed overseas costs should buy currency in tranches now, hedging against further falls without gambling on timing.”
Prem Raja, head of trading floor at Currencies 4 You, said people could save as much as €230.
He added: “The rise in gilt yields is not automatically good news for Sterling. UK 10-year borrowing costs reached 5.29%, their highest since 2007, but the Pound still fell below $1.35. Investors appear more concerned about inflation, debt costs and the Government’s limited room ahead of the October Budget than attracted by higher yields.
“The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% this month. If markets scale back expectations of a later rise, Sterling could lose another 1-2% over the coming months. GBP/EUR is around €1.16-€1.17, but €1.15 is realistic if fiscal concerns grow. GBP/USD could retest $1.33-$1.34, although US developments matter too.
“Travellers would notice that: a 2% fall means roughly €230 less when exchanging £10,000. I would not tell everyone to buy everything now, but anyone with a confirmed Euro or Dollar requirement should consider securing part of it and staggering the balance. That limits the risk of further weakness without committing everything at one rate.”
Anita Wright, chartered financial planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said a weaker Pound arrived in people’s shopping baskets within weeks, not months.
She added: “Everyone will watch the Pound against the Dollar and Euro. That’s the wrong yardstick. Those currencies are run by governments with the same problem so the Pound can look stable at the bureau de change while quietly losing purchasing power where it matters the supermarket, the petrol station, the energy bill.
“The real test of a currency is what it buys at home, and on that measure Sterling has been slipping for some time. What’s actually going on is this. The BoE holds bank rate down while the gilt market demands 5% and more. That gap gets filled by the Bank buying gilts, which is printing money by another name.
“More Pounds chasing the same goods. Diesel is already tightening and Britain imports most of its energy and much of its food, so a weaker Pound arrives in your shopping basket within weeks, not months. On holiday money swapping Pounds for Euros just moves you from one leaking boat to another.”
Samuel Mather-Holgate, managing director and IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said there was no point waiting for the Pound to get stronger.
He added: “Sterling is not staring at an instant cliff edge, but the warning lights are flashing. With 10-year gilt yields around levels last seen in 2008 and the Pound slipping below $1.35, markets are telling Britain the free lunch is over. Higher borrowing costs squeeze the Treasury, unsettle mortgage markets and make imported goods, fuel and holidays more expensive if the Pound weakens further.
“For families, this is felt at the airport exchange desk, in supermarket prices and in the next remortgage quote. I would not tell people to gamble on currencies, but anyone with a known Euro or Dollar cost in the next few months may prefer certainty over trying to outguess a very twitchy market. Waiting for a stronger Pound is starting to look like a heroic assumption.”
Nouran Moustafa, practice principal and IFA at Roxton Wealth, said the weak Pound could be seen in airports.
She added: “The Pound is being squeezed from both sides. UK borrowing costs are rising, but markets still expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% this month. Sterling has already slipped to around $1.35 and €1.16. For households, this becomes painfully real at the airport.
“A weaker Pound means your hotel, meals and spending money abroad quietly become more expensive without the price tag changing. But I would not tell somebody to panic-buy thousands of Euros today based on a currency forecast. Nobody can reliably call Sterling over the next few weeks.
“If you know you need €2,000 or $3,000 for a trip, buying it in stages is far more sensible than gambling your entire holiday budget on one exchange-rate prediction. The bigger warning is this: when markets lose confidence in government finances, ordinary people eventually feel it. The bond market may look boring. Its consequences absolutely are not.”
