Strait

Aug. 18 (UPI) — A ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under attack on Tuesday, sustaining at least one casualty, amid claims by Tehran’s top negotiator that the critically important sea route would remain closed pending the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.

The British Royal Navy’s U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center said in an alert that the security officer of the ship’s owner had reported that the engine room of the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while sailing outbound through Strait of Hormuz [from the Persian Gulf].

“The impact caused damage to the engine room and resulted in a crew casualty. The remaining crew are currently being assisted by the Omani Coast Guard. At present, no environmental impact has been reported,” said UKMTO which did not identify the ship.

It was not immediately clear if the affected crew member was injured or killed, or what type of weapon was used in the attack.

The incident coincided with comments by Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, vowing not to permit shipping to pass through the strait until the United States complied with terms set out in a cease-fire deal the two sides signed in June, including the lifting of sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil abroad.

“I want to state clearly that the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the American commitments stipulated in the memorandum of understanding… are implemented,” Ghalibaf said in an address carried on Iranian state television.

Sailings through the strait have remained drastically curtailed, as they have been since the war started on Feb. 28, despite the 14-point framework calling for it to be reopened to commercial vessels for the duration of the 60-day deal, which expired Monday.

The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency added the ending of all military threats and operations by the United States to Ghalibaf’s list of demands.

The U.S. Navy is currently enforcing a blockade preventing ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

President Donald Trump on Friday said he would designate the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States “pretty soon” as the status of the waterway, a global chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes, remains under a military and diplomatic deadlock.

Iran has fired back, dubbing Trump’s threats as “nonsense” as the memorandum of understanding signed between the two in June expires on Sunday.

Tehran has blocked the passage to leverage it as a global economy kill switch, while Washington has maintained a military naval blockade against Iran’s ports, choking its economy further.

In the apparent game of who blinks first – though Trump says negotiation with Iran “is like chess” – the US president’s military rhetoric has also followed a pattern throughout the ongoing war, which began on February 28. On many occasions, he has threatened to attack Iran only to pull back at the eleventh hour.

So, can the US actually make the Strait of Hormuz its territory? And what does that even mean?

What has Trump said?

“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said during a speech at a police academy in New York.

Referring to the naval blockade, Trump went a step further to suggest that the Strait of Hormuz is already a US territory. “Essentially, that’s what it is,” he added.

“We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to,” he said.

Iran maintains that it controls the waterway — and despite the US claims, some vessels have transited the passage despite the blockade, maritime navigation data shows.

“It’s clear the US president, with a chuckle as he said that, even himself, is not taking this particularly seriously,” said Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett, reporting from Washington, DC.

“These are the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. But what the US president likes to do is get under the skin of adversaries, and, in this case, it’s Iran,” she said.

“What we should point out, though, is what the US president is not backing down on is the fact that there is a naval blockade by the United States in effect in the Strait of Hormuz, and that is ongoing.

How has Iran reacted to it?

Several Iranian officials have sharply reacted to Trump’s remarks. The head of the judiciary came out with furious rhetoric, calling the US president criminal and feather-headed, his remarks “nonsense” and saying the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, also responded, saying, “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by tweet, nor by aircraft carrier, nor by issuing an order, nor by an election speech.”

“The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian; this strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iran has been holding talks with Oman, the only other coastal country in the strait, to reach a settlement on the management of maritime traffic in the strait. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in comments carried by the Iranian Students’ News Agency, said negotiations between Tehran and Muscat “may reach a conclusion soon”.

The reopening of the waterway, however, is a separate issue, Araghchi said, where Washington has to adhere to promises made in the June memorandum of understanding, including removal of the naval blockade and sanctions on Iran.

That is the new Iranian position on the ongoing war, where Tehran is now seeking these US concessions for mere reopening of the waterway, which were originally conditions for ending the war.

Is Trump’s claim even practical?

First, sovereignty does not exchange hands over a mere unilateral presidential proclamation.

For instance, Trump had earlier threatened to send US boots to Iran’s Kharg Island to take over the key Iranian oil export hub in the Gulf. Tehran then responded by saying that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would be waiting for them, “with fingers on the trigger”. Trump had previously also threatened to take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark.

Bruce Fein, associate deputy attorney general under President Ronald Reagan, says Trump is constitutionally powerless to annex on his own.

“A treaty ratified by the Senate or statute is constitutionally required to annex territory, as with the Louisiana Purchase or annexation of Hawaii or Panama Canal or acquisition of Puerto Rico or the Philippines in ending the Spanish-American War.

If he goes ahead with annexation, Fein says, it would “constitute the crime of aggressive war under international law, including the UN Charter”.

Natalie Klein, a specialist in international law and associate dean at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, said, “Essentially the only way Trump’s claim could have any plausibility under international law would be if the US was asserting control over the Strait as an occupying power perhaps comparable to the authority the US exercised over Japan immediately after World War II.”

“But in that scenario, the US would need to have military control over Iran or at least its coastal areas.”

Trump’s war on Iran is also widely unpopular in the US, where the president and his fellow Republicans are seeking to defend their narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections. Barely 35 percent of Americans approve of the war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Several US media publications have reported that Washington is running short on munitions, including the crucial Patriot antimissile interceptor. Petrol prices have also increased, and are now averaging more than $4 a gallon – a major issue for Americans.

Last week, US Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration’s top priority in the war was to control increasing petrol prices, while stopping Iran’s supposed race to a nuclear weapon now comes second.

Tehran has also attacked its neighbours in the Gulf, which analysts say are aimed at forcing the regional countries to push Washington into a corner at the negotiating table.

Even Iran does not enjoy unfettered sovereignty over the strait as a whole, under international laws, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), but only some coastal sites near its own borders.

The UNCLOS recognises coastal-state sovereignty over territorial waters, but limits that territorial sea to 12 nautical miles (22km), and notes that ships enjoy a right of passage that “shall not be impeded”.

The Strait of Hormuz is in international waters, sandwiched between the coasts of Iran and Oman. At its narrowest point, the strait is only about 21 nautical miles (39km) wide — and the two countries’ 12-nautical mile territorial seas overlap across it.

While neither the US nor Iran has ratified UNCLOS, the convention’s rules on international straits are widely regarded as customary law.

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Trump usually makes such statements primarily to speak to a US audience, especially his support base.

It is important to remember, he added, that Trump is a product of US reality TV and is, at the end of the day, a “showman”.

“This is a guy who speaks big. You have to take him seriously in some cases but not literally,” Musgrave cautioned.

Trump cannot be taken seriously, especially in this case because making the strait US territory is physically and legally impossible, he said. But the statements do show that Trump is determined not to back down from Iran and accept defeat in the months-long war, he added.

Israel kills 11 in deadliest attacks on Lebanon since June truce as Iran and Oman continue talks on Hormuz.

Aug. 15 (UPI) — President Donald Trump on Friday said he wants the Strait of Hormuz to become U.S. territory.

Speaking at an event in New York, Trump said he plans to declare ownership of the waterway between Oman and Iran once the war is over.

“After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said, as reported by the Guardian.

“Essentially, that’s what it is,” he added. “We have the blockade — no ships get through unless we want them to.”

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, on Saturday called the president’s remarks “fanciful delusions.”

“Once and for all, accept the reality: up to this point, you have suffered strategic and heavy defeats,” Gharibabadi said in a statement on X. “The Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian.”

“This strait will only be closed and opened under Iran’s command, and as long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and cease your fanciful delusions, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” Gharibabadi added.

Traffic through the strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas usually pass, has slowed dramatically since Trump launched the war with Iran on Feb. 28.

Six ships traveled through the strait last weekend, where usually as many as 140 would pass in a single day, The Hill reported.

Both Trump and Iranian officials claim to have control of the strait.

“We have control over it, nobody else, only us,” Trump told reporters earlier this week, The Hill reported. “Our Navy is unbelievable and things are going great for our country.”

Published on
12/08/2026 – 16:50 GMT+2

Two of the most influential voices in energy markets set out opposing readings of the year on Wednesday.

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The IEA now expects the world to burn less oil in 2026 than it did in 2025, its first such call since Covid-19 ground the global economy to a near-halt, while OPEC still pencils in growth, leaving them more than two million barrels a day apart.

The Paris-based IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, a downgrade of 510,000 b/d from July.

“The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices continue to weigh on oil consumption,” it said, cutting its second-half forecast by roughly 550,000 b/d.

OPEC still expects demand to grow, though its estimate has been trimmed for a fourth consecutive month, to 580,000 b/d from 780,000 b/d.

The producer group has consistently argued the war has done less damage to consumption than Western forecasters believe, and the two sets of numbers imply a difference of about 2.2 mb/d in what the world will burn this year.

Supply still 6.3 million barrels short

The supply picture explains the pessimism.

Global production rose by 2.4 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d in July but remained 6.3 mb/d below year-earlier levels, with 8.3 mb/d of Gulf output still shut in.

Gulf production climbed to 23.9 mb/d, yet regional exports fell 2.1 mb/d to 15 mb/d after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed again in early July and tankers and infrastructure came under attack, with loadings sliding from 20 mb/d to around 12 mb/d.

With no deal to reopen the waterway or secure passage through Bab el-Mandeb, the IEA cut its supply forecasts again and now expects output to fall by 4.3 mb/d this year.

Observed global stocks also dropped by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 billion, down 410 million since the war began.

Both bet on 2027

Where the two agree is next year.

OPEC now expects demand to grow by 2.2 mb/d in 2027, an upgrade from the 1.94 mb/d it forecast last month, while the IEA goes further still at 2.4 mb/d.

That is an inversion worth highlighting, as the gloomier forecaster for this year delivers a more bullish read for the next.

The IEA reads the damage as a blockage rather than a collapse, oil that cannot reach buyers rather than demand that has vanished, so the deeper this year’s hole, the steeper the climb out of it once Hormuz reopens.

OPEC, which never accepted that consumption fell much, has less ground to make up for.

The agency’s outlook rests explicitly on de-escalation, assuming flows gradually recover and turning this year’s supply contraction into growth of 8.3 mb/d, flipping a 1.3 mb/d deficit into a 4.6 mb/d surplus.

Aug. 12 (UPI) — The International Energy Agency warned Wednesday of a sharp drop in global stocks oil amid renewed disruption to exports via the Hormuz Strait and Caspian Sea resulting in “lower volumes of oil” transiting the seas to markets around the world.

In its August Oil Market Report, the agency said measurable global oil inventories — strategic reserves, on tankers at sea — plunged by 69 million barrels in July to just under 7.9 million barrels, down from 410 million barrels per day at the start of the war at the end of February.

Onshore stocks declined by just 6 million barrels per day as the pace of IEA releases of its emergency stocks eased, even as China continued to draw down on its crude oil reserves.

“Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting,” the IEA said.

The IEA data comes two days after the U.S. Department of Energy said the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve had fallen to less than 300 million barrels in the previous week, its lowest level in 43 years — but still well above the 70 million barrel minimum for it to run as intended.

President Donald Trump ordered 172 million barrels to be released in March after exports from Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE were severely curtailed by Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Use of other routes to move oil and the drawing down of inventories, including China’s massive 1.4 billion barrel reserve which has seen a sharp drop in its oil imports, have so far helped ward off the damaging global oil shortage it was feared the closure of the Hormuz Strait would trigger.

The IEA also warned that the destruction of global demand for oil was escalating, driven by the continuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices suppressing consumption, forecasting a 1.6 million barrels per day drop in demand in 2026, up from its previous estimate of 1 million barrels per day.

However, it said said the pace of market contraction would slow, down from a 4.9 million barrels per day decline in the second quarter to 2.8 million barrels per day drop in the third quarter, and return to growth in the final quarter, with expansion of global demand of 2.4 million barrels per day expected in 2027.

On the supply side, the IEA said overall production for 2026 would fall more sharply than demand, but would bounce back to outpace demand in 2027.

Production rose by 2.4 million barrels per day to 101.5 barrels per day in July, but remained well short of the 6.3 million barrels per day supply growth pace seen in July 2025, with 8.3 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf output “still shut in.”

“Renewed hostilities and maritime disruptions in July and early August undermined the recovery efforts, reducing projected third quarter 2026 oil supply by 1.7 million barrels per day compared with last month’s report.

“Global oil supply is now projected to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day on average in 2026 and rebound by 8.3 million barrels per day next year to 110.3 million barrels per day,” the IEA said.

President Trump signaled he’s prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes to force a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as the Islamic Republic reiterated that the conditions still aren’t in place to allow free passage through the key waterway.

“We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump told Axios in an interview on Sunday, saying that a US naval blockade of the country was deepening its financial woes. “We are low-keying it.”

The president’s comments mark a shift from his repeated threats to escalate the bombing campaign against Iran and come amid lingering talks between Tehran and Oman to reopen Hormuz. Iran has said it’s nearing a deal, while laying out a list of demands for Washington to meet before shipping can resume — including the lifting of sanctions.

“As long as hostile actions continue, the conditions for ensuring the safety of this waterway are not in place,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday. “Its reopening is contingent on the US ceasing its illegal actions, lifting the siege and compensating for damages.”

Brent crude rose 1% on Monday to over $84 a barrel, extending a rally of more than 5% over the previous three sessions. The contract is still down since the start of the month.

The Islamic Republic’s economy has taken a hammering from the war, with much of its industrial capacity destroyed, crude exports severely curtailed by a US blockade and central bank data showing year-on-year inflation recently reaching 77%.

The currency, meanwhile, has fallen more than 10% from its prewar level, adding to the economic pressure on Iranians. A depreciation of the rial sparked violent nationwide protests that peaked early this year, leading to a crackdown by authorities that left thousands dead. There have been no signs of the anti-government demonstrations resuming.

Iran reemphasized its determination to continue wielding control over Hormuz in the face of US opposition by naming hard-line former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohsen Rezaee to its top security post over the weekend. An advocate for full Iranian control over the waterway, he served as military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and will now head the Supreme National Security Council, which coordinates decisions on the war and negotiations to end it.

Rezaee replaces Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a fellow hard-liner who accepted a new position as political adviser to the supreme leader. The appointments were reported by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency late Sunday.

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a pact with Oman to establish a shipping route through the strait was “very close,” without providing details on the substance. He ruled out direct talks with the US for now, but said the two sides are exchanging messages through intermediaries.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transited before the war, has become a key sticking point in the negotiations to bring a lasting end to the fighting that began when the US and Israel staged airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Trump has demanded free passage for months.

Tehran’s demands for a full reopening include the US lifting its naval blockade on Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and compensation for war damage. It has also called for a permanent end to attacks on groups it backs in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Gaza. It’s unclear how strictly Iran will stick to the list of conditions.

Some of the demands will be difficult for the US to meet alone. In Gaza, a proposal by US-backed mediators to disarm Iran-backed Hamas and push Israeli army out of the Palestinian enclave was rejected by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday.

In Yemen, clashes between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and forces from the internationally recognized government supported by neighboring Saudi Arabia, have escalated. The Houthis claimed to have struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, while Saudi authorities reported a fire that was quickly extinguished, with no injuries.

The incident would mark at least the second blaze at the 400,000 barrel-a-day complex in a month. Satellite images in late July showed a tank fire following another claimed Houthi attack.

Sykes writes for Bloomberg.

Published on
10/08/2026 – 7:43 GMT+2

Oil prices rose in early trading on Monday as market participants weighed mixed signals from the US and Iran, with concerns that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could take longer to materialise.

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Futures for international benchmark Brent crude for October delivery gained 1.04% to $84.42 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate futures for September advanced 0.83% to $78.83 a barrel.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards insisted on Sunday that they would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the US complied with a list of demands.

Tehran insists on retaining control of the waterway – through which a fifth of world oil and LNG pass – after the war and wants to charge tolls for passage, which Washington has pushed back against.

Attacks in the strait, which was free to transit before the war, led to the collapse of an April ceasefire, and mediators have urged both sides to return to the terms of a subsequent June memorandum that set out a path for peace talks.

Iran on Saturday released a list of conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to the war on all fronts, the lifting of a US counterblockade of Iranian ports, the end of sanctions, the release of frozen assets and compensation for wartime damage, the Tasnim news agency reported.

Those conditions echoed the terms of the June agreement, which included a provision to create a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that their strategy was to maintain their blockade “until the enemy accepts all our conditions… the strait is now actually a theatre of war for us and not just a waterway”.

For his part, US President Donald Trump said in an interview: “We are low-keying it.”

“We are only semi-negotiating with them,” he was quoted as saying. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

“It will work out,” he added. “It’s like a chess game.”

Additional sources • AFP

Aug. 9 (UPI) — Iran has replaced its top security official with another commander of its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a spokesman for Iranian Masoud Pezeshkian said late Sunday.

Mohsen Rezaei, who had been an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will be the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. He replaced Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who resigned.

Zolghadr had been in the post since his predecessor, Ali Larijani, was killed in an Israeli air strike in March. He will serve as political adviser to Khamenei.

The shakeup came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is not talking directly with the U.S. to end the war with Tehran and open the Strait of Hurmuz, despite claims by U.S. officials that the sides are near a deal.

Araghchi was quoted by the Mehr news agency as saying that “messages are being exchanged through intermediaries” and Iran isn’t talking directly with Washington. He reportedly added Washington must meet conditions by Iran if a deal is reached with Oman to open a trade route through the waterway.

U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Sunday his administration is “low keying it” in negotiations with Tehran.

“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” Trump said. “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.”

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Khamenei would have to agree to any deal to open the strait.

On Saturday, Zolghadr said U.S. forces should be withdrawn from near Iran. He added that the U.S. should compensate Iran for war damages as well as lift sanctions.

Iranian diplomats said earlier last week that Tehran and Oman were near a new agreement to manage the strait.

IRGC sets terms to reopen Hormuz as US seeks commitments to end attacks on ships in the waterway.

Gulf and Arab governments condemn Iran over missile strike on Emirati tanker.

The United Arab Emirates has accused Iran of striking a tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) with a missile as it crossed the Strait of Hormuz, drawing swift condemnation from Gulf and Arab governments.

The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Saturday that the vessel was hit in the early hours of the morning while transiting the strategic waterway, a chokepoint for a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.

Abu Dhabi described the strike as an act of piracy by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and called on Tehran to halt the attacks and reopen the strait fully and unconditionally.

ADNOC confirmed one of its ships had been targeted by a missile while crossing the strait, according to the state news agency WAM. ADNOC did not provide details on any damage to the vessel or its exact location at the time of the attack.

The UAE ministry said using the waterway as a tool for pressure or economic blackmail threatened regional stability and global energy security.

The IRGC have previously threatened action against any vessels transiting the strait if they are linked to Tehran’s adversaries, or if they fail to comply with Iranian directives.

ADNOC said on Friday that it had been significantly affected by what it described as unprovoked attacks on its personnel and assets, while continuing to meet customer requirements in an “exceptionally challenging environment.”

The company said 15 of its vessels had been attacked by missiles and drones while transiting the strait since the start of the conflict, including three this week, killing one crew member and injuring 20 others. ADNOC did not identify those responsible for the attacks in its Friday statement.

Regional governments condemn attack

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jassim Mohammed al-Budaiwi condemned the latest attack as a “dangerous and unacceptable escalation”, calling for international action to protect maritime navigation and reaffirming the bloc’s solidarity with the UAE.

Qatar also condemned the attack and rejected the use of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, calling for the waterway to be reopened without conditions. Doha’s foreign ministry warned that its continued closure threatened the interests of regional states and the global economy.

Saudi Arabia condemned the targeting of the tanker “in the strongest terms,” saying Iran’s continued attacks constituted a grave breach of international law and Resolution 2817. Riyadh held Tehran responsible for the consequences and demanded an immediate halt to the strikes.

Jordan also condemned the attack as a flagrant violation of international law, affirming its full support for the UAE.

The reported attack marks a sharp escalation in tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where the UAE and its Gulf neighbours have pressed for the passage to remain open to international shipping.

Eight of the world’s largest shipping associations have urged the United Nations to oppose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz amid reports that Iran and Oman are nearing a deal to manage the critical waterway.

In a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez, the group said that allowing authorities to charge vessels to transit the strait would violate international norms and harm the global economy.

“Introducing compulsory charges for transit, or service fees that are a toll in all but name, through the Strait of Hormuz would represent a significant departure from established international practice,” the groups representing shipowners and operators said in the letter, which was sent to the UN on Monday but made public on Wednesday.

“Beyond the immediate financial implications for global trade, it would establish a precedent that could undermine the internationally recognised legal framework governing straits used for international navigation and transit passage.”

Internationally recognised rights of navigation should not be “compromised or used as part of broader political negotiations,” the group said, warning that a permanent de facto “toll booth” would lead to higher energy prices, inflation and economic uncertainty.

“Ultimately, these impacts will carry a human cost, affecting livelihoods around the world. It is vital that we continue supporting the preservation of freedom of navigation as the foundation of international maritime governance,” the group said in the letter.

The letter’s eight signatories are the Asian Shipowners Association, the Baltic and International Maritime Council, the Cruise Lines International Association, the European Shipowners Association, the International Chamber of Shipping, the International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners, the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners and the World Shipping Council.

Dominguez, the head of the UN’s maritime agency, previously told Al Jazeera that imposing fees in the strait would violate international law and set a “very detrimental” precedent for global shipping.

“Countries do not have the right to introduce tolls or payments or charges on these straits,” Dominguez said in April.

Deborah Elms, the head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, said the establishment of a permanent toll system would be felt acutely in Asia, which buys the bulk of the Gulf’s energy exports.

“The cost increases from Hormuz disruption can be seen in Asia, particularly in diesel fuel price increases and shortages, in the skyrocketing cost of fertilisers, and in rising costs and shortages of plastics,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

“Much of the oil currently shipped through Hormuz could be rerouted through pipelines, but natural gas remains a problem. This chokepoint is not a major problem for container shipping, but if tolls were applied to other waterways, containers and bulk carriers would be affected much more,” she said.

Iran established a de facto maritime “toll booth” in the strait shortly after the US and Israel launched their war against the country in late February.

Tehran formalised its fee regime with the establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May.

Iran’s ability to launch attacks on commercial vessels in the region has granted Tehran effective control over the waterway, giving it powerful leverage in negotiations on ending the war.

Dozens of attacks have been carried out on vessels since the start of the conflict, most of which have been blamed on Iranian forces.

The IMO has confirmed 64 incidents and 17 deaths in the region since the war began.

Shipping across the Gulf continues to be severely disrupted more than five months into the conflict, with at least 6,000 seafarers still stranded in and around the strait as of late July, according to the IMO and UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk.

In the latest incident on Wednesday, a tanker reported hearing two explosions while transiting the strait, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO).

Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the IMO and other international agencies have limited ability to influence any deal involving Iran, Oman and the US despite their concerns.

“Despite clear interests in maintaining freedom of navigation in international straits, neither the UN, international organisations or shipowners have adequate leverage or ability to affect Iran’s calculus,” Thompson told Al Jazeera.

“President Trump has the means to continue to use violence to coerce a stubborn and resilient Iran, but he has thus far been ambivalent about international law and freedom of navigation, so it is uncertain if he would use his political capital or military force to prevent Iran from extracting tolls on shipping in the strait,” Thompson said.

Aug. 5 (UPI) — Iran and Oman are in the final stages of a joint agreement to manage commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, agreeing on a route for ships Wednesday, the Iranian foreign ministry said.

However, Iran will not open the strait to traffic until the United States ends its blockade, the ministry said, CBS reported.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi told state-run media that there is agreement between Iran and Oman on proposed inbound and outbound shipping routes in the strait, CNN reported.

Iran and Oman are on opposite sides of the strait, a major commercial waterway used for much of the world’s oil and gas supplies. They’ve been in negotiations over it for about three weeks. Before the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, the strait was an open international waterway, but Iran closed it in response to the attacks.

“The geographic coordinates of the route envisioned by both sides have been agreed upon,” said Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for the Iran Foreign Ministry, told the country’s state news agency, as reported by The New York Times. “If certain third parties do not obstruct the process, a joint statement by the two countries,containing the principal considerations and points of agreement, is currently in the final stages of review and drafting.”

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters there has been a lot of progress on reopening the strait and that it will reopen “soon,” perhaps even as soon as Wednesday or Thursday. However, Gharibabadi denied again that Iran is negotiating in any way over the waterway with the United States, CNN said.

Oil prices fall as US officials tout progress in talks to reopen critical waterway.

The US stock market has hit an all-time high amid growing hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a flurry of bumper corporate earnings results.

The S&P 500, the most popular gauge of US stocks, surged 1.8 percent on Tuesday to top 7,700 for the first time, blasting past its previous record of 7,620.90 set on June 2.

Wall Street’s benchmark index has risen 12.80 percent so far this year, comfortably beating its historical average of about 10.5 percent.

Palantir Technologies, a data analytics company closely tied to the US and Israeli defence sectors, was among the biggest gainers, with its shares soaring 29.5 percent on the back of forecasting-busting second-quarter revenue of $1.94 bn.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks 30 blue-chip companies, set a new record for a second straight day, climbing 1.7 percent to 54,085.88.

The rally continued in Asia on Wednesday morning, with key indexes in Japan and South Korea making major gains.

Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 3 percent as of 01:00 GMT, while the Kospi in Seoul was up 4.6 percent.

Brent crude, the primary international benchmark for oil prices, edged lower after falling about 5 percent overnight on hopes for an end to the months-long disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the start of the US-Israel war on Iran in late February.

Brent futures for October delivery stood at $79.11 per barrel as of 01:00 GMT, down about 13 percent from the previous week.

The growing market optimism came as both US and Iranian officials touted progress in talks between Iran and Oman aimed at restoring shipping in the strait.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that while an agreement had yet to be reached, he hoped that a deal would “happen very ‌shortly”.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC that an agreement on the strait could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, said talks with Omani officials on designating safe routes for vessels have been “positive”.

Maritime traffic in the Gulf has been severely constrained since the start of the war amid the threat of Iranian attacks on vessels in and around the strait, as well as a US blockade of Iranian ports.

Just nine vessels transited the critical waterway on Sunday, according to ship-tracking platform MarineTraffic, compared with roughly 130 daily crossings before the start of the war.

The US military said on Tuesday that the strait was “free and open” to all commercial vessels despite Tehran’s repeated insistence that it has the right to control the movement of traffic in the waterway.

“Over the past three months, US forces have assisted more than 1,000 vessels in successfully transiting the strait despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, and these transits continue today,” US Central Command said in a post on social media.

Iran and Oman are reportedly closing in on a deal that would give the Islamic Republic full control over ships entering the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as a tenuous pause in fighting between the U.S. and Iran enters a sixth day and a day after U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that Iran would fully open the vital chokepoint today or face new and more intense attacks that would include powerplants, other civilian infrastructure and even strikes on leadership. Iran largely closed the Strait after it was hit by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. The American leader is pushing a rekindled effort to find a diplomatic off-ramp to a conflict that has killed 18 American troops, wounded hundreds more, drained U.S. weapons stocks and roiled international relations and global financial markets.

Highlighting the precarious nature of vessel transits through this narrow passage between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), another ship was struck by Iran overnight as it was leaving the Strait, a maritime security official told TWZ.

The Gulf of Oman, which is the eastern approach to the Strait and the Persian Gulf, is largely controlled by Iran to the north and Oman to the south. Under the emerging agreement between those countries, “vessels heading into the Persian Gulf will transit a channel controlled by Iran, and close to its coast. Ships leaving the Gulf will travel on a channel near Oman,” The New York Times reported.

Both Iran and the U.S. are already following this general traffic pattern, with the U.S. Navy recommending transits close to the Omani coastline and Iran pushing shipping toward its shores. The middle of the Strait has been deemed too hazardous because of the threat primarily from mines. The new plan being pushed by Iran and Oman would expand the use of these traffic patterns. Unless there is some special cutout made in the deal, it could require the U.S. Navy to seek permission to enter the Persian Gulf and then have to make the transit deep in Iranian waters, giving American warships degraded defensive options and putting them in the heart of Iran’s weapons engagement envelope.

While Iranian officials say that they won’t impose tolls, the accord does include a charge for service fees to cover the environmental impact of the shipping, security for the cargo ships and tankers, and staffing, the publication added. Revenues would be divided equally between Iran and Oman, two Iranian officials told the Times.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that “Tehran ​is unlikely to change its position,” because it has already shown flexibility by moving from its initial position of seeking full control over ​traffic in both directions in the strait.

But a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations told the Times on Monday that the Iranian account was “not accurate,” and said that any “temporary” routes established through the strait would not involve approvals or permissions by Iran, and would involve no tolls.

Oil prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as senior US officials raised hopes of a deal with Iran to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz waterway.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both announced talks had progressed to allow shipments to potentially resume as soon as this week.

The cost of a barrel of brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, fell by almost 5% to under $80 on the news of supply disruptions potentially being eased.

But the failure of previous negotiations in recent months to de-escalate the conflict between the US and Iran has led to a volatile oil market, with drivers ultimately being hit by higher fuel prices at the pumps.

On Tuesday, along with the drop in Brent crude, US West Texas Intermediate prices were down more than 5%, to $76 a barrel. Both contracts dropped to their lowest levels since 13 July.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been progress made in discussions on getting more ships through the Strait with Iran and Oman.

“There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. We’re hoping that will happen very shortly,” he told reporters at the State Department.

Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be agreed as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

There was a “chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict,” he told CNBC.

“It would be freedom of movement,” he added, when asked whether Iran would be allowed to charge for ships passing through.

While senior figures in the US government have announced talks have been progressing, no details of what a potential deal may look like have been released.

The Strait of Hormuz has been a central point in negotiations between the US and Iran. Before the conflict began in late February, the waterway handled about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

The disruption has sent prices at the pumps up across the world. In the UK petrol prices are now at levels seen at the start of the conflict, with the average cost of a litre of petrol hitting £1.60, according to the RAC motoring group.

In the US, gasoline prices are on average above $4 a gallon, according to the AAA. Diesel is almost $5.40 a gallon.

Qatar, which is one of the key mediators between Washington and Tehran, said it was continuing efforts with other mediators to try to achieve a diplomatic resolution to the war, but admitted no direct talks were currently planned.

On Monday, President Donald Trump warned Iran faced its “last chance” to agree a deal to allow commercial shipping to resume in the Strait.

He said he had called off “massive” strikes on the country for talks to resume.

But Iran has said it was not negotiating with the US – and had no plans to do so – and is instead talking to Oman.

US stock markets were trading higher on Tuesday following news of the negotiations lowering oil prices and also in response to corporate results related to Artificial Intelligence.

Investors have experienced jitters on Wall Street as results from Big Tech firms indicate spending on the technology is set to continue to soar.

Iran’s foreign minister says negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz are entering their “final stages”, as Tehran insists the vital waterway will never return to its pre-war status.

In a post on Telegram on Sunday, Abbas Araghchi said that in a report he presented to the cabinet, he described the negotiations between Tehran and Muscat as “on the way to being finalised”.

Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that Tehran and Muscat were close to reaching a deal on a new maritime route through Hormuz, separate from existing corridors.

“We are now going to reach an understanding on a route acceptable to both sides – neither the northern route nor the southern route – but one that respects the sovereign rights of both sides and safeguards our national interests and security,” Baghaei said in an interview with state television.

Muscat did not immediately comment on the matter.

Both Iran’s and Oman’s territorial waters border the Strait of Hormuz, the key waterway through which about 20 percent of global oil consumption is normally shipped.

Details of the new route were not immediately clear, but Iran has effectively maintained control over the strait since the outbreak of war. On February 28 , the US and Israel launched strikes aimed at destroying Iran’s missile programme, preventing a nuclear weapon and cutting off support for allied armed groups.

A June ceasefire collapsed within weeks in a dispute over shipping routes through Hormuz and fighting reignited in July.

Baghaei earlier said “an understanding between Iran and Oman on a new route has nothing to do with whether the Strait of Hormuz is reopened or remains closed”. He blamed the US for the closure and accused Washington of breaching its commitments, according to Iran’s Fars news outlet.

“The strait was closed because of the United States’ breach of its commitments, its naval blockade of Iran and all the hostile measures that the United States has taken against the Islamic Republic of Iran during this period,” he said.

Hassam Ghashghavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s national security commission, said on Sunday that mediators were trying to revive the June memorandum of understanding with the US, and were aware that Hormuz remained the central issue, Iranian news outlet SNN reported.

Ghashghavi said it was possible that an Iranian delegation would travel to Muscat again as part of ongoing diplomacy. “This is the nature of diplomacy and this exchange of views continues regularly,” he said.

Two-sided messaging

The comments come after US President Donald Trump said early on Sunday that the US and Israel had agreed to halt new attacks on Iran, provided a deal to end the months-long conflict is reached “rapidly”.

Trump posted on Truth Social that the US was “locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran”, but Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries asked him to hold off on new attacks.

“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”

Trump said the deal “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”.

“The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE,” he wrote.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, (MBS) spoke to Trump by phone on Saturday, urging him to “prioritise dialogue” and “reduce escalation”, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

US news website Axios reported that MBS expressed concern over Trump’s plans for large, new attacks against Iran and reportedly urged him to refrain.

“We know that, in a larger context, Iran is habituated to dancing to the same old tune, as it is receiving this oscillating rhetoric from the US president about the possibility of another round of confrontation on the one hand, [while also hearing] statements about these talks going well and that a potential deal is within reach,” said Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran.

“In that regard, we know that the Iranian side, at the same time, is responding with the same two-sided message, saying that the road for diplomacy is open on the one hand, [while also maintaining] full preparation for another round,” he added.

Oman’s proposal is based on the Strait of Malacca in East Asia, a model whereby ships that use the strait provide voluntary fees.

Iran and Oman have exchanged proposals regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, as points of contention continue to exist between the two nations whose territorial waters border the strategic waterway.

Oman presented a proposal to Iran ⁠for ⁠a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with “voluntary fees”, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Under the Omani proposal, which reportedly has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control ⁠of the strait, an unnamed Gulf source and Western diplomat ⁠told the news agency.

Oman’s proposal is reportedly based on the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. There, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships that use the strait to voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection, and ‌search-and-rescue operations.

This proposal aims to contribute to ending the global disruption to trade caused by the strait’s closure in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Tehran, however, says the strait ⁠cannot go back to its pre-war status where shipping flowed freely,

In comments to Iranian state media on Tuesday, Kazem Gharibabadi, the country’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, said Tehran rejects an Omani proposal for an equal division of transit routes between the two countries, as such a plan does not address Tehran’s security concerns.

Gharibabadi said that Tehran proposed to Oman that Iran would manage shipping through its side of ‌the strait and Muscat would manage part but not all of the opposite lane.

He added that Tehran has “no plans to negotiate with the US”, but affirmed talks are proceeding “step by step” with Oman, warning that Tehran will consider “any action” to maintain control over the strait, including the resumption of war.

“The Omanis are now suggesting three lines for the maritime traffic: one that runs through Iran’s territorial waters, an international one, and one through Omani territorial waters,” said Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran. “Despite public statements, our sources tell us Iran is demonstrating some flexibility.”

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, also reporting from Tehran, said there remain many “points of contention” between Oman and Iran on Hormuz. These include the trajectory of the ships, the fees, the question of who will define the arrangements, and mine clearances – which will reportedly be Iran’s responsibility.

Paul Musgrave, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Oman’s proposal to Iran to get the Strait of Hormuz running again is positive, but it remains to be seen if hardliners in Iran will go for it.

Musgrave noted that under the Strait of Malacca model, voluntary contributions raise about $70m annually, far from the $1m per ship that’s reportedly been proposed by Tehran as a “service fee” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers met via video call on Tuesday to discuss the latest developments in the conflict, including ways to improve cooperation on issues surrounding freedom and navigation through the waterway, a statement from the Qatari Foreign Ministry said.

The United States suspended a nearly two-week-long campaign of air strikes against Iran over the weekend after pressure from regional mediators to find a diplomatic solution and to return to the memorandum of understanding signed in June, which would allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carried one-fifth of global energy supplies before ⁠the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

The U.S. war with Iran escalated again Thursday as Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked two Saudi Araian oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing global oil prices to surge amid fears of yet another vital energy corridor being choked off by the conflict.

The attacks came after the Trump administration threatened additional strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure while pushing a new deal to help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear energy program of its own. Also Thursday, four Republicans in the U.S. House joined Democrats in a vote to halt the American military campaign absent congressional approval. Senate Republicans blocked a similar measure.

The price of oil hit $100 a barrel for the first time since May, increasing the financial pressure on Americans at the gas pump and the political pressure on President Trump to end a war he promised would last weeks but has persisted for months. At least 18 U.S. service members have died in the war.

The Houthis, who control the populous northwest of Yemen, receive arms and training from Tehran but had remained largely on the sidelines since the U.S. and Israel launched the war. Their latest strikes complicate already fraught negotiations between the U.S. and Iran after the collapse of a ceasefire this month amid renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the other major energy passageway choked by the conflict.

The Houthis had this week announced a naval blockade of Saudi ships in the Red Sea, which stretches along Saudi Arabia’s western flank. That blockade centered on the Bab al Mandeb strait, the only southbound route for Saudi tankers headed to Asian markets.

Tanker traffic has already been heavily diminished in the Persian Gulf along Saudi Arabia’s northeast flank and between it and Iran, because of Iran’s threats to vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had diverted its oil exports to its Red Sea ports and out the Bab al Mandeb, dispatching some 4.5 million barrels via that route per day.

In a social media post Thursday, Trump said that if the Houthis continue attacking ships in the Red Sea, the U.S. “will hold Iran responsible” because the Houthis are an Iranian proxy, and inflict “major military punishment” on the Houthis and Iran.

He said he was “very disappointed” in the Houthis, “in that they have, until now, acted very professionally and smart” amid the Iran war.

At a later event Thursday, Trump said the U.S. is “doing extremely well” against Iran, which he accused of having “evil intentions.”

Democrats in the House and Senate cited the war’s spread to the Red Sea as yet another reason that Congress should act to pass a war powers measure to halt the president’s military campaign. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), who led the unsuccessful effort in the Senate, cited the expansion while recalling how Trump had claimed victory in Iran as far back as March.

“If we won back in March, why are more Americans getting killed in July? If we won back in March, why is the Strait of Hormuz closed? If we won back in March, why is the war expanding as Houthis attack ships transiting the Bab al Mandeb strait in the Red Sea? If we won back in March, why are oil and gas prices and diesel prices shooting through the roof again, imposing costs on every American family?” Van Hollen said. “Is that their definition of winning?”

The Houthis’ military spokesman, Yahya al-Sarea, said the group’s forces conducted “a qualitative military operation” targeting two Saudi oil tankers with missiles and drones for what he said were violations of the Houthis’ blockade on the Red Sea.

The Houthis have accused Saudi Arabia of imposing a blockade on airports and seaports in northwestern Yemen, where most of the country’s population lives and which the Houthis otherwise control. They also blamed Saudi Arabia for an attack this month on Sanaa’s airport to prevent the landing of a plane carrying a Houthi delegation returning from the funeral of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the start of the war.

Al-Sarea said that in addition to striking the two tankers, the Houthis forced 10 other ships to turn back from their passage, will “continue their naval operations against the Saudi enemy” and will “continue imposing the equation of blockade against blockade.”

The escalation of the war — and the shock wave it sent through global energy markets — added to regional uncertainty already being stoked by the Trump administration’s announcement Wednesday that it had agreed to work with Saudi Arabia to develop a civilian nuclear program.

That announcement, after years of U.S. attempts to block nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, sparked widespread concern in Washington, where lawmakers will vote on the deal, and in Israel, which has long feared a nuclear arms race in the region.

Trump administration officials said the deal would “uphold the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation,” with American firms developing the program. But they provided few details, and questions immediately arose about the absence of clear inspection protocols or any requirement that Saudi Arabia first normalize diplomatic relations with Israel.

On Thursday, Trump said the deal would be conditioned on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later said that Trump had not talked to Saudi leaders since making that condition public, but that they would have to agree to it or “the deal is off.”

Leavitt said that Trump had raised the matter with Saudi leaders in the past, and that it is something Trump “feels very strongly about.”

Asked whether Israel pressured the president to impose the condition, Leavitt said, “Not to my knowledge.”

Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress that the Iran war has already cost the U.S. $37.5 billion. House Republicans on Wednesday pushed through a $1.15-trillion defense policy bill to fund the war moving forward. Most Democrats voted against the measure in protest of the war, and it faces stiff opposition in the Senate.

Trump in recent days has tried to deny polls showing plummeting support for the war among Americans. On Wednesday, before attending the dignified transfer of the bodies of U.S. service members killed in the war to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, Trump claimed Americans don’t want high gas prices but “aren’t against the war.”

On Tuesday, Trump posted statistics showing that more U.S. service members died in past wars, which Democrats denounced as disrespectful to those killed in the current conflict.

The Houthis seized control of the Yemeni capital in 2014, along with much of Yemen’s populous northwest. Their advance triggered a devastating Saudi-led campaign to dislodge them. Since 2022, the two sides have been in a stalemate, though tensions have been rising again in recent months.

Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report, a U.S. risk advisory firm focused on the Middle East and Africa, said the Houthis’ latest escalation comes as their influence is growing because of the increased importance of Bab al Mandeb while the Strait of Hormuz is choked off by Iran.

“This is their moment, because with everything happening in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al Mandeb quadrupled in importance. By exerting maximum pressure in this period, they can maximize the effect of any kinetic action they’re trying to do,” Al-Basha said.

“Their narrative is very aggressive. They want war. And they feel that because they want war and sense that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia don’t, that they will submit to their demands.”