Russian

At least three people have been killed and three others wounded in Russian strikes on Odesa, the city’s military administrator says.

Several people have been killed in Russian attacks on port infrastructure in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and Ukraine said it launched drone strikes on 20 Russian vessels as the warring sides escalated their battle over the Black Sea and key trade routes.

Odesa region Governor Oleh Kiper said on Wednesday that a “massive” Russian drone and missile attack on the southern region continued for a fifth day, with civilian, industrial and port infrastructure coming under attack.

At least three people were killed and three others wounded in the Russian strikes on Odesa, the city’s military administrator Serhiy Lysak said on Wednesday.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence confirmed the strikes on the Odesa and Chernomorsk ports, saying Russian forces targeted infrastructure facilities that it claims are used to store fuel and assemble drones.

Russia in recent days has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in the Greater Odesa area, which handle much of the country’s grain and other cargo and are vital to its wartime economy.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has escalated its campaign to disrupt logistics for Russia’s forces in areas Moscow occupies in southern Ukraine and to isolate Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Kyiv’s drone force commander Robert Brovdi said Ukraine hit 17 Russian oil tankers, two gas tankers and one tugboat in the Black Sea.

He claimed earlier this week that 116 Russian vessels had been “hunted down” over a nine-day period.

Moscow said on Tuesday that it was preparing to redirect exports following waves of attacks on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the Ukrainian attacks on shipping “terrorism”.

The attacks come as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv and said she would announce steps to deepen Ukraine-European Union defence integration.

“I will announce new initiatives to integrate our defence industries. So we can produce more, and faster,” she wrote on X, posting footage of her arrival in the Ukrainian capital.

Ukraine claims that 28 Russian vessels were hit by aerial drones in the Sea of Azov on Saturday. The strikes are the latest in a campaign that Ukrainian authorities assert has resulted in nearly 80 Russian vessels, mostly so-called shadow fleet oil tankers, being attacked in that body of water on a daily basis since July 6. 

As a result of these attacks, “Russia temporarily stopped shipping through the Don-Azov Channel, a navigable waterway linking the Don ​River with the Sea of Azov,” Reuters reported, citing three grain export industry sources.

The move came after 13 Russian vessels, including 10 tankers, were attacked in this body of water on Friday. Market analysts noted to Reuters that about 25% of wheat exports from Russia, the world’s largest exporter ​of the grain, pass through the Sea of Azov.

The Sea of Azov campaign is part of much wider Ukrainian efforts to isolate the Crimean peninsula as well as strike at Russia’s energy infrastructure to damage its economy and reduce its ability to wage war. As we have previously reported, these attacks are inflicting pain on Russian forces in Crimea. Also often striking very deep into Russia, they are also having a devastating effect on fuel supplies across the country. In addition, the attacks are helping to halt Moscow’s gains and pave the way for Ukrainian advances.

“Overnight on 11 July, the Birds of the Unmanned Systems Forces hit 21 tankers, 4 tugs, 2 cargo vessels, and 1 special-purpose vessel in the Sea of Azov,” Ukraine’s 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade, known as “Magyar’s Birds,” stated on X. The cutting-edge unit is named for Ukraine’s drone force commander Robert Brovdi, also known as Magyar. 

In addition to striking the ships, Magyar’s Birds claimed to also have hit “53 legitimate military targets were engaged deep inside the enemy’s rear in Crimea and the southern part of the temporarily occupied territories, including fleet assets and energy infrastructure. Operation ‘Crimean Switch Off’ has no end date.”

The shadow tanker fleet was engaged by drone pilots from a wide array of units, the brigade added. 

“The technological humiliation of the empire continues,” Magyar’s Birds proclaimed. “It will fall because of Crimea.”

TWZ cannot independently verify the claims; however, many videos have emerged on social media purporting to show the results of these attacks. Magyar’s Birds has released six compilations of them. 

The brigade began releasing videos of these strikes on July 6. This first one shows two ships being hit in a compilation of videos showing strikes on targets mostly on Crimea. The targets included S-400 air defense systems, radars and an oil depot.

The next day, July 7, Magyar’s Birds released a video that opened with a wide view of almost two dozen tankers lined up in the Sea of Azov. The video then cuts to show several of those vessels being struck and burning. The unit claimed eight tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry were hit.

On July 8, Magyar’s Birds claimed nine more Russian tankers were attacked.

Magyar’s Birds released another video on July 9 claiming 14 Russian ships were hit overnight.

Friday, July 10, Magyar’s Birds claimed strikes on 10 tankers, a cargo vessel, a ferry and a sea tug.

In addition to the videos released by the unit, others emerged on social media showing the aftermath of these attacks.

❗️Consequences of the 🇺🇦Ukrainian drone strike on the 🇷🇺Russian dry cargo ship FAVORI (Volgo-Don type, Project 1565A) in the Sea of Azov pic.twitter.com/MCfwC5fmPa

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) July 10, 2026

Footage shows Ukrainian Armed Forces drones attacking tankers belonging to the Russian shadow fleet in the Sea of ​​Azov.
In the last four days alone, the Ukrainians have damaged or destroyed 49 Russian vessels. pic.twitter.com/Ejv7aPv9JS

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) July 10, 2026

Magyar’s Birds doesn’t name the types of drones being used, but the video displays show they are from Fire Point, which makes several kamikaze drones as well as the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile.

Roy Gardiner, a former Canadian military officer who is part of the Defense Tech For Ukraine collective and is an expert on Ukrainian drone warfare, surmised that the attacks are by the FP-2 drone.

FP-1 and FP-2 – Drones that inflict pain on the Russian rear! | Weapons with @StarskyUA

“It’s the only UAV available in large numbers and with the range to carry that much explosive, other than the long-range AN-196 Liutyi, which is a lot more expensive and illogical to use for this mission,” Gardiner, who uses the @GrandpaRoy2 handle on X, told us.

Ukrainian UAVs have struck about 175,000 tons of shipping in the Sea of Azov over the last few days — these are World War II numbers. https://t.co/P4IEJb77M0

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 10, 2026

Fire Point co-owner Denis Shtilerman recently told the TSN media outlet that the company has increased the warhead of its FP-2 strike drones to 200 kilograms. A change in the wing design enabled the drone to achieve a flight range of up to 370 kilometers with those warheads, he claimed.

УКРАЇНСЬКІ ДРОНИ СТАЛИ НОСІЯМИ РАКЕТ! Деталі від українських розробників / ТСН.Тиждень

That range gives Ukrainian forces fire control over virtually all of the Sea of Azov, a body of water north of the Black Sea. The videos indicate this is made possible by high-speed satellite data links allowing for man-in-the-loop operations at great distances. This has enabled Ukraine’s sea drones since their arrival but the miniaturization of the technology has now allowed for large-scale use on one-way attack munitions. 

In addition to the aerial drones striking these tankers, Ukraine’s SBU state security bureau used Sea Baby sea drones to attack a Russian tanker in the Black Sea on June 8. As we have frequently reported, Ukraine’s naval campaign has focused overwhelmingly on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Many successful attacks have been recorded against Black Sea Fleet vessels and facilities, forcing the general evacuation of Russian naval assets from occupied Crimea and to bases in Russia proper.

The Sea of Azov campaign has some Russian milbloggers chiding Moscow for not doing enough to protect these tankers.

“The ‘Military Informant’ Telegram channel complained that the defenseless manner in which the tankers had travelled had become in effect a shooting gallery for Ukrainian drone operators, with no cover from a Black Sea Fleet, which could nowadays barely defend itself,” the BBC recently noted.

The Kremlin is certainly paying attention to Ukraine’s targeting of refineries, oil depots, ports, ships and other energy infrastructure.

Russian nationalist and Z-blogger Vitaly Voronov is disgusted that Ukrainian drones have reached Omsk, well to the east of the Urals in Siberia.

“Well, after Ukrainian drones started reaching Siberia and striking the Omsk oil refinery, I believe in Vladimir Putin even more.
1/ https://t.co/sFA9sLevl9 pic.twitter.com/WvbccZppt9

— Roy🇨🇦 (@GrandpaRoy2) July 8, 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin “is concerned enough to address the fuel shortage publicly on state TV, insisting the Ukrainian attacks are ‘obviously creating problems’ but insisting ‘it’s not critical,’” BBC explained.

There’s good reason for Putin to be concerned.

“Russian gasoline output fell to a level equivalent to only around 65% of the ​seasonal average consumption after Ukrainian drone attacks led to stoppages at large oil refineries,” Reuters reported on Friday, citing “two industry sources ‌and Reuters calculations.”

As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, Russia – long a major oil exporter – is now turning to imports to cover the gap and meet the demands.

“Supplies of gasoline and diesel from Belarus to Russia hit a monthly record in June, while industry sources said last week that Russia had ‌started ⁠seaborne from India,” Reuters added. “Traders said that up to 6,000 tons of gasoline per day are delivered from neighboring Belarus to Russia. Stockpiles are also being tapped.”

Russia is also taking the drastic step of considering bans on exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel.

All this comes as both Ukraine and Russia are jockeying for territory and influence amid a slow-churning, on-again, off-again effort by President Donald Trump to end the conflict.

Ukraine’s success in targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure and isolating Crimea has likely had an effect on Trump, who has repeatedly changed his stance on which side he favors.

As we recently reported, Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a remarkably warm bilateral meeting at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, earlier this week. So much so that the American leader promised his counterpart licenses to manufacture Patriot air defense system interceptors, something Zelensky has sought for years without success.

Ukraine continues to struggle badly to fend off Russian ballistic missile barrages and remains overmatched in terms of troops and equipment on the battlefield, where fighting has ground to a virtual standstill. Despite that, Kyiv is proving that asymmetric efforts like the Sea of Azov campaign are helping to offset Moscow’s advantages.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

July 10 (UPI) — A bipartisan group of senators on Friday reached an agreement with the Trump administration on a long-stalled effort to sanction buyers of Russian energy resources.

First introduced in 2025, the Sanctioning Russia Act would have imposed 500% tariffs on countries purchasing petroleum and natural gas from Russia.

But the legislation — spearheaded by Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. — has repeatedly failed to pass muster.

The senators now believe they finally have a version of the bill that could be approved in both chambers and signed into law by the president.

“As Russia intensifies its slaughter of civilians, it is imperative that the legislative and executive branches work together to create tools to exact a heavy price on those who buy Russian oil and natural gas, fueling the Putin war machine,” the senators said in a statement.

Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker, R-M.S., and Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., also signed into the statement.

The senators did not provide details on the updated text of the legislation.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv on Friday, however, Graham said he’s “never been more optimistic than I am today that we have the formula to end this war.”

He added he hopes the sanctions will “help Ukraine be more lethal [and] let those supporting Russia to know it’s going to be a price to be paid if you keep doing it,” Ukrinform reported.

Emergency crews are searching for survivors after a Russian air strike on the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia killed at least one person and injured 29, including two children. The city’s mayor says Russian troops have advanced to just over 20 kilometres away.

Ukraine appeared to have begun large-scale strikes against Russian shadow tankers attempting to supply occupied Crimea with fuel, as an energy crisis on the peninsula worsens.

At the same time, Ukraine has continued to cause fuel shortages in Russia itself, striking refineries deep inside the country, including, for the first time, the Omsk refinery in Siberia, Russia’s largest, 2,500km (1,553 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi said his forces had struck 19 Russian tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry between July 6 and 8, including nine tankers on the night of July 7.

Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk told newspaper Suspilne that Russia had rerouted fuel supplies to Crimea after Ukraine deprived it of overland routes.

“They had few options left. It’s either a land corridor or a sea connection,” Pletenchuk said. “As far as we know, they don’t use the Kerch Bridge for such transportation in the necessary volumes,” he said, referring to the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.

Ukraine detonated a truck on the bridge in 2022, setting alight a fuel train that had been travelling alongside it and demonstrating the risk of using the bridge for large volumes of fuel.

Ukraine pivoted to attacking Crimea in the past few weeks after disabling the oil offloading terminal at Novorossiysk, on the opposite Russian coast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.

“We were slowing down the militarisation of our peninsula occupied by Russia,” he said. “We cut off the logistics and took control of the fuel and energy complex. We showed what it means to operationally control the sky at a specific point, at a specific time.”

The Ukrainian Presidential Office in Crimea said these strikes had caused “a management crisis on the peninsula”.

In Sevastopol, fuel has stopped being sold to civilians, and more than a dozen Crimean regions are suffering from electricity blackouts.

Ukraine continued strikes on the peninsula in the past week, destroying seven Sukhoi aircraft and two sheds containing Shahed aerial drones at the Saky airfield on July 3, the Kerch oil transhipment terminal on July 6 and three hangars at the Guardsman airfield on the same day.

Ukraine also kept up pressure on Russia, launching what mayor Sergei Sobyanin said was its largest strike on Moscow in two years.

More than 400 Ukrainian drones were downed while heading for the city on July 7, which was the first day of a NATO summit in Ankara.

“When our drones weren’t flying to Moscow and St Petersburg, [Russian president Vladimir]  Putin didn’t think much about it. He understood that the war was far from the Kremlin,” Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.

“When not a hundred drones, but a thousand would start flying to Moscow, and when he would feel and see this, he would be advised to move somewhere beyond the Urals. This would be a moment like a new page on the path to ending the war.

Ukraine struck several energy targets during the week, furthering its twin goals of starving Russia of petrol and export revenue from oil.

The SBU said it struck and set alight the St Petersburg oil terminal on July 4, which it described as “one of the largest oil product transshipment terminals in the Baltic region”. Zelenskyy posted video purporting to show the terminal in flames.

On Sunday, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces had struck the Slavneft Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, 700km (430 miles) from Ukraine, the Ust-Luga refinery on the Baltic Sea, and the Omsk Refinery. Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down 613 of 625 Ukrainian drones detected in the airspace overnight.

Ukraine’s Air Force said that Russia had lost 42.7 percent of its refining capacity over the past year, and suffered $13.5bn of damage to oil infrastructure.

These strikes have cumulatively caused petrol and diesel shortages in the Russian market, with consumers in urban hubs lining up to fill their cars.

During the week, Ukraine also struck the Kremny EL Group in Bryansk, which it said manufactured microchips, semiconductors and other electronics for the armed forces.

Zelenskyy said the air war would prove “decisive”, because in 2026 Ukraine’s ground troops had effectively stopped Russia’s slow advance of the last two years.

Independent assessments have suggested that Russia gained a total of 97 square kilometres (37 square miles) in the first six months of the year.

“The war is ongoing, but the front line is no longer moving. When the front line is almost not moving, and the enemy cannot invade by sea, the sky remains,” Zelenskyy said.

US President Donald Trump handed Zelenskyy a major victory at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, saying he would license Ukraine to produce interceptor missiles for anti-air systems.

Zelenskyy has been campaigning for a licence to build Patriot interceptors, which he believes Ukraine can do faster and more cheaply than the US or European manufacturers.

But Zelenskyy said Patriots ultimately are not the answer for European air defence, announcing his intention to develop FREYA, a Ukrainian-designed anti-ballistic system like Patriot “but with a higher production capacity and at a lower cost”.

Is Russia losing?

Zelenskyy’s commander-in-chief warned against dismissing Russia too easily.

“It’s still too early to talk about a qualitative turning point in the war,” Oleksandr Syrskii wrote on his Telegram messaging channel. “The aggressor is showing signs of exhaustion, but retains significant offensive potential,” adding that Russia “plans to extend the front line, which already exceeds 1,250 kilometres (777 miles).”

Putin relaunched the narrative that Moscow will overrun the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, four-fifths of which Russia already controls.

In a televised meeting with his top generals on July 3, Putin was told that Russia has seized 3,000sq km (1,160sq miles) of Ukraine so far this year, and “liberated” 133 settlements. His commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov, also claimed to control the cities of Kupiansk in Kharkiv, and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk.

The Institute for the Study of War, which uses geolocated footage to assess advances, estimated that Russian forces have a presence in 2.4 percent of Kupiansk and 37 percent of Kostiantynivka – and most of that in the form of infiltrations, not firm control.

The Ukrainian military has estimated the number of Russian servicemen in Kostiantynivka at between 100 and 250.

Putin was told that Russian forces seized 636sq km (245sq miles) of Ukraine in June alone. The ISW estimates the real number at 30sq km (11sq miles).

Kostiantynivka is politically important to the Kremlin because it is the first of four heavily fortified cities, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which Moscow must seize to take control of Donetsk – which Putin considers a puppet state and has repeatedly prioritised.

“The capture of Kostyantynovka by the troops of the South battlegroup opens a direct road for further advance to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, other fortified areas in the Donbas, and is, of course, the key to liberating the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” Putin said.

The Donbas includes Donetsk and Luhansk, which Putin mistakenly claimed to have taken in its entirety.

“I understand that we should no longer speak of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynovka line, but simply of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk line,” Putin told the gathering.

If you want to get a sense of the fuel crisis gripping Russia, all you need to do is spend a day driving around Moscow. At almost every petrol station we passed there was a queue of cars and lorries. Some lines were long, some short; some static, others moving steadily.

If there was no queue, that meant the garage had run out of fuel entirely and was closed.

Remember: this is Moscow, the wealthy, populated capital that draws in so much of Russia’s vast resources. Even here the authorities cannot ensure there is enough petrol and diesel to keep Muscovites on the road.

Yet, in the queues, the mood was more frustrated than angry. Yekaterina told us she was “not happy” and there was “panic because everybody thinks there will be no oil”. But it would OK, she said, “we just need to reorganise the oil distribution”.

The situation according to Elmar was “very bad” and he complained prices were going up as fuel stocks ran low. “You are wasting hours to fill up,” he said. “At the moment I am planning a trip to Dagestan but I don’t know if I should drive there or not because there are so many problems with petrol.”

I asked him who was to blame. “In our country, you can’t say what is to blame and who is to blame,” he said, with a knowing smile.

In Russia, criticism of the president, or even the Kremlin, is not something most feel they can do in public.

Valery said it was strange having to queue in a country that extracts so much oil. He blamed the lack of Russian preparedness as much as Ukrainian missiles. “I have no desire to get used to queues,” he said. “I hope the situation will change soon and won’t be continued.”

So the war is coming closer to home for many across Russia.

President Vladimir Putin has worked hard to insulate most people from the consequences of what he calls his special military operation, now well into its fifth year. On the streets of Moscow, one can see little sign of the war, just a few posters about heroic soldiers.

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

The attacks have triggered fires in two districts of Kyiv, according to the city’s mayor.

Russian missile attacks have struck Kyiv in the third large-scale assault on the Ukrainian capital in less than a week.

Early on Wednesday, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a statement on Telegram that the Russian strikes had triggered fires in two districts of the city. It is not clear if there have been any casualties or damage.

Moscow also launched a large-scale attack on Kyiv on Monday, killing at least 14 people and damaging at least a dozen buildings.

Both Russia and Ukraine have recently expanded their use of long-range weapons, including missiles, marking a new front in Moscow’s four-year war.

Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russian energy facilities to weaken its war efforts.

Ukraine said on Tuesday that its drones attacked a dozen tankers from Russia’s “shadow fleet” over the past two days that were delivering fuel to Moscow-occupied Crimea. Kyiv’s military said they had struck eight vessels subject to sanctions in the Sea of Azov, each with a deadweight of about 7,000 metric tonnes. Two more tankers were hit later in the day.

The Sea of Azov is a key supply route for Russian forces in Crimea and other occupied parts of southern Ukraine.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 – in a move that has been unrecognised internationally – eight years before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow has not publicly commented on this week’s attacks on Ukraine, which also included strikes on electrical substations, radar systems, and missile installations.

Attacks amid NATO Summit

The latest exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine also comes amid NATO’s annual summit, which began on Tuesday. The military alliance’s leaders have gathered in Turkey’s capital Ankara for the two-day summit, where defence spending and the Russia-Ukraine war is under discussion.

NATO is expected to pledge further military support for Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges the alliance to step up aid for the country’s air defences following a deadly escalation of Russian attacks on Kyiv.

Zelenskyy – who has renewed his call for Ukraine to be allowed to join the alliance – wrote on social media on Tuesday that he had signed new agreements with Estonia, the Netherlands, and Denmark in Ankara.

The deals create “new opportunities for joint production, the development of innovative defense technologies, systematic exchange of expertise, and the export of Ukrainian battlefield-proven solutions”, he said.

Further agreements are expected with Germany, Norway, Finland, and Canada.

US President Donald Trump is also expected to meet Zelenskyy on the summit sidelines on Wednesday, having spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of the NATO gathering.

Asked about Russia’s war in Ukraine, Trump said he hoped it would be settled “soon”.

“I think they both want to make a deal,” Trump said.

“It’s too bad it took so long, but I think something’s going to come out.”

Russian athletes could be allowed to compete at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles after the International Olympic Committee provisionally lifted their suspension.

The IOC suspended the Russian Olympic Committee in 2023 in response to the war in Ukraine.

It says that ban is “no longer applicable” and athletes from Russia can compete again as long as they “meet relevant anti-doping requirements”.

No decision has yet been taken on whether Russia can display its flag, colours and anthem at the Olympic ‌Games.

Some Russian athletes competed at both the 2024 Paris Games and this year’s Winter Olympics in Milan as neutrals.

Russia welcomed the decision, saying the Games must be “free from politics”.

“The IOC is sending a clear signal: the Olympic movement must remain free from politics,” Russian sports minister Mikhail Degtyarev said on Telegram, adding that Russia planned to participate in qualifiers for the 2028 Olympics.

More to follow.

A Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s capital has killed at least 10 people and injured 46 on the eve of a NATO summit. Al Jazeera’s Audrey MacAlpine reports from a residential building that was hit.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned of a likely attack ahead of meeting with US President Donald Trump.

A Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s Kyiv has killed at least 10 people and damaged more than a dozen residential buildings in the second large-scale assault on the Ukrainian capital in less than a week.

The attack early on Monday morning injured at least 46 people in Kyiv, according to Tymur Tkachenko, head of the city’s military administration.

Another person was killed and 10 others were injured in districts surrounding Kyiv, according to authorities.

Ukraine’s military said Russia fired 68 missiles and 351 drones overnight.

The Kyiv Independent reported that the first explosions were heard at about 1:40am local time, followed by more strikes at 2:10am and 3:15am.

Thousands of residents fled to underground shelters, it reported, as air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine.

At least 15 buildings were damaged in Kyiv in the strikes, including four in the capital’s historic Podilskyi district, Tkachenko said.

Rescue work is under way across the capital and the death toll could rise, he said.

“Unfortunately, this is not the final information,” Tkachenko told reporters as the death toll jumped to nine from seven in Kyiv.

In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that another Russian assault might be coming before the NATO summit in Turkiye this week.

He is due to meet United States President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit, which begins on Tuesday.

“Intelligence once again indicates that the Russians are preparing a new massive strike,” Zelenskyy said, according to the Kyiv Independent.

“This is typical of Putin: right after America’s Independence Day and before the NATO summit in Ankara.”

Late last week, Russia hit the Ukrainian capital with dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones, killing 31 people.

The strikes were the deadliest to hit Kyiv this year.

Both Russia and Ukraine have recently expanded their use of long-range weapons, including missiles, marking a new front in the four-year war.

Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russian energy facilities to weaken its war efforts.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of Russian-controlled Sevastopol, a Black Sea port in Crimea, said on Monday a Ukrainian strike near the city had knocked out electricity supplies.

“Following an enemy attack on energy infrastructure near Sevastopol, our city was temporarily left without electricity,” Razvozhayev wrote on Telegram.

Tuareg fighters in Mali have released footage claiming to show a Russian Africa Corps Mi-24 helicopter crashing after it was reportedly shot down. The incident comes amid escalating clashes between Malian forces, their Russian allies and armed groups.

One of Russia’s commercially flagged vessels in the Baltic has appeared armed with heavy machine guns, and it isn’t just any cargo hauler. The weapons fit is likely intended to provide close-in protection against naval drone attacks but is also evidence of increasingly bold measures taken by Moscow to ensure that military bases in its strategically important Kaliningrad exclave continue to be supported. After all, the ship in question, the Marshal Vasilevskiy, is a highly strategic one — Russia’s only floating storage and regasification vessel — that plays a key role in supporting Kaliningrad.

This comes at the same time that Russia ramps up efforts to protect its notorious ‘shadow fleet,’ used to circumvent Western sanctions on oil exports, despite efforts to interdict it.

Evidence of the armed tanker development was brought to light in an exclusive report from Holger Roonemaa, an investigative journalist working for Delfi Estonia, an Estonia-based news website.

Roonemaa secured the release of imagery from the Estonian Border Guard showing the Marshal Vasilevskiy operating in the Baltic Sea last month, with machine gun positions on either side of the deck above the bridge.

The Marshal Vasilevskiy, a 945-foot liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker of 118,000 gross tonnage, was spotted by an Estonian Border Guard surveillance aircraft as it was sailing past Estonia’s western islands toward the Russian port of Bolshoi Bor in the Gulf of Finland.

The sandbagged gun positions were armed with 12.7mm Kord heavy machine guns, a belt-fed weapon that is used by infantry, as well as being mounted on vehicles and ships.

KORD Heavy Machine Gun

The Marshal Vasilevskiy is not a part of the shadow fleet, but it has been subject to sanctions. Moreover, this appears to be the first direct evidence of Russia installing weapons on a civilian ship in the Baltic region.

The vessel is owned by the Gazprom company and regularly supplies Kaliningrad with natural gas, with four such voyages identified since last August.

Almost certainly, the guns on the Marshal Vasilevskiy are intended to help defend against Ukrainian drone attacks.

The Kord fires at a rate of 600-650 rounds per minute and has an effective range of around 2,000 yards.

Earlier this month, Ukraine used aerial drones to attack the prestigious Russian Navy base at Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, in what appears to have been the first strike of its kind against the Baltic Fleet.

By targeting Kronstadt, Ukraine signaled the opening up of a new front in its drone war with Russia, namely against the Baltic Fleet while it is in port.

Previously, Ukraine’s naval campaign had focused overwhelmingly on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Many successful attacks have been recorded against Black Sea Fleet vessels and facilities, forcing the general evacuation of Russian naval assets from occupied Crimea and to bases in Russia proper. Ukrainian attacks on Russian-linked shipping have also extended, to a more limited extent, into the Mediterranean.

These attacks have also involved a growing and increasingly advanced array of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs, or ‘drone boats’) as well as uncrewed underwater vessels (UUVs).

Ukraine’s proven ability to launch long-range aerial drone attacks, as seen in the video below, as well as to bring kamikaze drones closer to Russian targets, and strike them from short range, underscores the potential vulnerability of Russian tankers working the Baltic, too.

While Ukraine, as far as is known, has not launched any USV or UUV attacks in the Baltic, it would certainly be within its capabilities to do so.

At the same time, Russia has no doubt also considered the possibility of an Operation Spiderweb-type attack in the Baltic, in which short-range drones could be launched covertly, in mass, from locations much closer to their targets.

In the same way that Operation Spiderweb used commercial trucks as covert launch platforms for one-way aerial attack drones, any suitable vessel could be used in the same way by Ukraine in the Baltic, whether to launch aerial drones, USVs, or UUVs.

In this context, the Marshal Vasilevskiy would be a particularly prized tanker. It is currently Russia’s only floating storage and regasification vessel, a ship that takes on board super-cooled LNG and then converts it into gas that is then fed into pipelines, in this case, in Kaliningrad.

As well as countering potential drone attacks, putting guns on the Marshal Vasilevskiy sends a signal to NATO forces not to interfere with it. Warning shots could be fired to send a message to boarding parties or helicopters. Russia’s willingness to use warning shots was demonstrated in the English Channel earlier this month. With the Kord gun, the vessel could bring down a helicopter with ease, forcing a boarding force to kinetically attack the ship before attempting boarding.

Typically, the crew of a vessel such as the Marshal Vasilevskiy would not be trained to operate heavy machine guns. This raises the likelihood that the ship’s crew includes members of the Russian military or, more likely, the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s principal security agency. It is not inconceivable that man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) could also be stowed below decks to defend against an aerial drone attack.

The development comes as Russia takes increasingly forceful measures to protect the vessels of its shadow fleet. These provide Russia with a critical lifeline, allowing oil to be sold and funds generated to continue the country’s war against Ukraine. Both China and India regularly accept such deliveries.

Over the past year, European authorities have intercepted shadow fleet tankers on several occasions, typically on the grounds of flying a false flag or for being suspected of damaging undersea cables.

There have been previous reports indicating that shadow-fleet oil tankers regularly include former mercenaries and soldiers among their crews.

Holger Roonemaa has helped establish that almost half of the “passengers” listed as going aboard the Marshal Vasilevskiy also have backgrounds in the Russian military, the National Guard, and/or the FSB.

At the same time, Russian Navy warships are increasingly used for escort, monitoring, and security missions for shadow fleet tankers as they transit the Baltic Sea carrying sanctioned Russian oil to markets prepared to bypass Western restrictions. You can read more about this here.

Returning to this vessel, the appearance of heavy machine guns on it is significant because it illustrates Russia’s militarization of civilian shipping supporting critical operations. There are many historical precedents of merchant vessels being armed during wartime, but it remains unusual to see a commercially flagged tanker openly carrying heavy machine guns in this region. In areas with piracy, it is not uncommon for security crews on vessels to be equipped with small arms, but this is a different kind of weapon, and the ship is operating in waters with no piracy risk attached.

In practical terms, a pair of Kord machine guns could be effective against small drones or boats at close range, but would offer little protection against larger, coordinated attacks, let alone modern anti-ship missiles.

With that in mind, it’s possible Russia might further boost the weapons fit of the Marshal Vasilevskiy to provide a more comprehensive defense. After all, this vessel is a critical asset, due to its unique capabilities in the Russian merchant fleet, and its special role supporting Kaliningrad. This makes it a strategic vulnerability that demands protection. If lost, it could have an asymmetric impact, threatening the ability to keep military assets in the exclave operational.

More broadly, this is evidence of Russia’s growing concern that logistics vessels, including civilian ones supporting critical infrastructure, could become targets in the Baltic region, too, as the war increasingly extends beyond traditional battlefields and further from Ukraine.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The Ukrainian SBU launched a drone strike on Russia’s Saki Air Base in Crimea on Friday. The attack, the latest in a string of strikes against Russian aviation and logistic assets on the peninsula, is part of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest campaign to inflict so much pain on Russia that Vladimir Putin moves to end the war.

SBU claimed to have destroyed several Russian tactical combat jets today as well as on Wednesday. Saki is home to the Russian Navy’s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, which flies mostly Su-30SM Flankers. It has been a frequent target of Ukrainian strikes and was hit by a devastating attack in the early days of the war.

“At the ‘Saki’ airfield, seven hangars storing aviation equipment were hit, in which Su-30SM, Su-30, and Su-24 fighter jets and frontline bombers were located,” SBU added. “According to preliminary information, at least seven aircraft were destroyed or damaged.”

SBU told us it had no visual evidence from either attack to back their claim, but we reached out to Vantor to see if they had any satellite imagery of the base. Vantor provided us a picture that showed damage to four hardened aircraft shelters that was taken this morning. Some of shelters have clear damage to their structures, others literally have their doors blown off and laying on the taxiway in front of them. From the overhead angle of the image, it is impossible to determine if aircraft were in those shelters at the time, and if they were, what, if any damage, was inflicted. In addition, we can’t tell when this happened from just one picture, although imagery we reviewed from Planet Labs dating to June 27th doesn’t appear to show the same damage to the shelters.

It is very possible that any aircraft in those shelters could have been damaged by fire, as the SBU claimed, or by shrapnel, but we just don’t know. Regardless, the shelters remain generally intact. We have written frequently about Russia’s efforts to protect its aircraft this way, including on Crimea.

Regardless, these attacks come after months of Ukrainian strikes on bridges connecting the peninsula with the mainland and on it’s fuel infrastructure. The situation has gotten so bad on Crimea that the officials there have tried to initiate gasoline rationing, making life miserable at the height of the traditional summer vacation season there.

Amid the ongoing Ukrainian pressure campaign, a Russian military officer said he recently took part in an exercise to see what it would take to fend off Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.

“I participated in the operational command-staff military game ‘Crimean Alert,’” Russian reserve colonel and military expert Viktor Murakhovsky claimed on Telegram. “The game was dedicated to the landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea and our measures to repel it. The staffs were organized according to the scenario from officers (in reserve and retired) of our armed forces.”

“The ‘Blue’ side acted unconventionally, widely using the latest means of detection and destruction,” he added. “The ‘Red’ side was forced to act ‘on the defensive.’ Overall, the exercises went smoothly and at a high level thanks to the organizers.”

Clearly, Ukraine does not possess much of a Navy, let alone landing craft to carry out a Normandy-style invasion. However, that is not the scenario played out in this wargame, according to an analysis by the award-winning The Insider news outlet.

“The scenario clearly simulates an amphibious or maritime operation: numerous blue arrows and routes are drawn across the Black Sea, extending from the direction of Odesa and the northwestern Black Sea toward Crimea,” the publication noted. “Red defensive positions are marked on the map within Crimea, particularly around Sevastopol, in northern Crimea, and in the eastern part of the peninsula.”

The map “shows the Kerch and Kerch Strait area on the right—also densely marked with red icons—indicating that the game scenario accounted for the eastern flank in addition to western Crimea and Sevastopol,” The Insider proffered. “Judging by Murakhovsky’s post, the scenario likely envisioned not a classic World War II-style amphibious landing—with hundreds of ships approaching the shore—but rather a modern operation involving the mass use of drones, long-range precision-guided weapons, reconnaissance systems, and possibly small, high-speed boats.”

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has for years been using its air and sea drones to attack Russian air defenses and radars inland, its seaports and largely driven the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea through the use of its innovative sea drone campaign.

Ukraine, as we reported in the past, has already carried out several incursions on the peninsula. In October 2023, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sent a small raiding party into a point north of Tarkhankut Bay. It was carried out by troops traversing the Black Sea on Sea-Doo GTX 300 personal watercraft. They were loaded down by grenade launchers, machine guns, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and other equipment needed to assault Russian positions. You can read more about that raid in our interview with the unit commander here.

Those attacks did not lead to a sustained presence, but they were not intended to. They were meant as a morale-boosting reminder to Moscow that Crimea would never be completely out of reach.

Whether Ukraine can marshal enough of its asymmetric assets and troops to really carry out any sort of a wide-scale amphibious landing on Crimea remains questionable bordering on impossible. One thing, however, is not. Ukraine is inflicting significant amounts of pain on Russian forces and assets on the peninsula.

UPDATE: 4:49 PM EDT –

Vantor provided us with additional satellite images of Saki. A very cursory analysis shows that six out of seven hardened aircraft shelters were damaged, with doors blown off of four of them.

There appears to be possible damage to two other shelters seen in a wider shot of Saki.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

June 28 (UPI) — Ukrainian long-range weapons struck two major Russian oil refineries on Sunday as President Vladimir Putin promised to ramp up security against Kyiv’s attacks in an address to United Russia party members.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in a social media post that the Slavyansk oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and another facility in the Yaroslavl region were hit, accompanying those claims were video showing buildings ablaze with thick smoke pouring into the sky.

The Slavyansk refinery is about 186 miles from the front lines of the Russian invasion in eastern Ukraine, while the Yaroslavl facility significantly farther away, at approximately at 434 miles.

Zelensky said Ukrainian forces celebrated the nation’s Constitution Day with the attacks, which continued Kyiv’s recent ramping up of its strikes on Russian infrastructure located far behind the front lines through the use of sophisticated long-range weaponry.

“We continue our operations that weaken Russia’s ability to wage this war,” Zelensky said. “Each of our long-range sanctions means fewer resources serving Russia’s war machine, and another step toward peace.”

Sunday’s strikes appeared to be a continuation of Zelensky’s newly announced 40-day “influence campaign” of using intermediate- and long-range weapons against Russia’s oil infrastructure in a bid to bring Putin to the negotiating table.

The Russian-installed occupation authorities in the Crimean Peninsula announced a regional state of emergency on Friday amid gas shortages shortly after the initiation of campaign.

In Moscow, meanwhile, Putin on Sunday obliquely admitted Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign was affecting Russians’ lives, but then quickly dismissed those concerns.

In a speech to the 23rd congress of his United Russia Party, Putin vowed to improve security and defenses against Ukrainian attacks.

“The congress of United Russia, our leading political party, is taking place at a difficult time — it would be safe to say that it is a pivotal moment for our country and a period of radical and systemic transformation of the entire world,” the president said, while pointing the finger at “Western elites.”

“Once again, Russia is confidently repelling any attempts to deter our progress. We have sufficient resources, means, and political will, and nobody should doubt that,” he declared.

Putin did not mention the wide-scale gasoline shortages being felt around the country but vowed to ensure the security of Russia.

One of Russia’s biggest advantages in the war against Ukraine is its ability to launch tactical airstrikes from bases largely out of reach of kinetic responses. While we have frequently reported about Ukrainian attacks on these bases, they aren’t sustained enough to stop Russia from generating devastating sorties.

Now Ukraine and NATO are looking to the private sector for ways of changing that equation through what is being called the Airfield Denial Challenge. It offers a 250,000 Euro award to companies or individuals who come up with workable ideas to prevent Russia from being able to use its air bases.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) operational experience has firmly established that the ability of the adversary to project air power from secure rear-area airfields remains one of the most consequential asymmetries in the current conflict,” according to NATO’s Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT). “Enemy tactical aviation, operating from bases beyond the reach of conventional Ukrainian strike assets, continues to conduct strikes using guided aerial bombs, cruise missiles, and stand-off munitions against friendly forces, critical infrastructure, and civilian population centers.”

The goal of this program is lofty.

“Each sortie originates from an airfield. Every airfield is a node of vulnerability: if it can be persistently denied, the adversary’s air campaign is fundamentally disrupted at source,” SACT suggested.

You can see video from one of the Ukrainian attacks on Russian tactical aviation bases below.

Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to halt these attacks are insufficient, SACT posited.

“Current workarounds: manned strike aviation, ground-based long-range fires (MLRS, ballistic missiles), and conventional single-unit loitering munitions have demonstrated limited effectiveness against defended airfield targets,” SACT argued. “They lack the mass-effect, persistence, and EW (Electronic Warfare)-resilience required to simultaneously suppress airfield infrastructure across multiple aim points in a contested environment.”

The “battlefield logic is clear,” the NATO subcommand added. “Point-defense and reactive interception of individual weapons must be complemented by persistent denial at the source.”

“We must find technologies that will help to permanently limit the enemy’s use of aviation infrastructure: aircraft, runways, fuel and ammunition storage facilities, and ground support infrastructure,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD) explained. “Ukrainian miltech companies, startups, and engineering teams are invited to participate.”

SACT said the challenge is technically agnostic and that it is looking for ideas that include, but not are not limited to, the following:

• Uncrewed aerial systems of any configuration or range class

• Autonomous or semi-autonomous munitions and loitering systems

• Swarming and mass-effect approaches

• Alternative delivery mechanisms beyond conventional aerial platforms

• Hybrid solutions combining multiple technologies

Regardless of what type of solution is presented, it “must be capable of operating in GPS-denied and EW-contested environments, across all weather conditions and seasons, and must demonstrate a credible path to rapid fielding.”

In addition, SACT is looking for systems that can conduct sustained strikes deep into contested airspace, operate without “continuous human control,” be fully autonomous and deliver “sufficient mass and precision to suppress multiple aim points across an airfield simultaneously.”

SACT also wants systems that require minimal training, and have AI-assisted target acquisition that “reduces reliance on expert judgment.”

The solicitation comes with the understanding that whatever solutions are presented won’t be proven, but should be at least in the mid-to-upper tier of the military technology readiness level (TRL) scale. It includes systems ranging from those having “high fidelity” laboratory integration of components to those with prototypes “near, or at, planned operational systems.”

Meanwhile, any solution that will take more than a year to be fielded won’t be considered.

The deadline for submissions is July 20. Ten finalists will be selected on August 11 and will be invited to a “pitch day” on Sept. 3, tentatively in Poland, to showcase their designs.

Whether this ambitious program will actually lead to the fielding of any systems that can persistently deny Russia the ability to launch aircraft is very much in question.

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has one of the world’s most innovative defense technology infrastructures that has created drones, missiles and other weapons designed, tested and fielded under intense wartime conditions. However, it has still been unable to achieve the goals being sought by this challenge. 

One of the big issues Kyiv faces is the limited amount of funds to pursue some of these advances and what the Atlantic Council has described as “Ukraine’s inability to mass produce sophisticated weapons or sustain stable military supply chains.” 

Getting an idea into the hands of NATO, which has developed a half-billion dollar fund to develop weapons for Ukraine, could ultimately help turn an idea into a workable weapon to keep Russian tactical aviation at bay. Even if that happens, though, the time it would take to develop these weapons at a scale large enough to make a real difference would be a formidable endeavor.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Diplomatic sparring between Ukraine and Belarus escalated sharply on 19 June, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded that Belarus dismantle communications infrastructure allegedly used by Russia to extend the range of its strike drones. Zelensky has offered a week for such removals to take place, reportedly saying, “I am giving a week for it to be withdrawn; otherwise, we will do it ourselves.” This marks a severe deterioration in relations since Belarus allowed Russian forces to cross Ukraine’s northern border using Belarusian territory in 2022. Following Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine’s northern regions, Belarus has not enabled further assaults from its own territory but has actively aided Russian efforts, in part, by allowing drones to operate over Belarusian territory to strike Ukrainian targets with less warning. These increased tensions follow recent statements from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko aimed at easing tensions, stating, “If Volodymyr Oleksandrovych was offended, I apologize to him for those words… Perhaps I shouldn’t have spoken so sharply about it. But, on the other hand, he should understand, as we often say: you get what you give.” As Zelensky applies pressure to Russia’s key European ally, Lukashenko’s response may determine whether his country will begin to withdraw support or play a larger part in this war.

Belarus’ Assistance in Putin’s Invasion

Belarus has played a vital role in Russia’s aggression since 2022, remaining one of Moscow’s most important enablers throughout the war. On the opening days of the conflict, 45,000 Russian soldiers crossed into the capital region of Kyiv. Since Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine, Belarus has remained a tacit supporter of the invasion, finding auxiliary ways to support its key strategic ally’s actions in Ukraine without directly becoming involved itself. While weapons transfers and diplomatic support aid Moscow’s war effort, Belarus’ most valuable contributions come from two primary sources. First, Belarus’ expansive border with Ukraine. The two countries share a border that stretches over 1,000 kilometers. The existence of a Russian ally on Ukraine’s northern border introduces the risk of another attack from this direction, requiring the dedication of over 100,000 soldiers to the defense of a region that may not become active for the duration of the war. Second, neutral airspace was made available to long-range strike drones. Without this advantageous lane of attack, Russian drones, such as the Geran-2, must spend hours loitering over Ukrainian territory, where they are exposed to interception attempts while trying to reach their targets. Additionally, and central to Zelensky’s latest ultimatum, Belarus has reportedly allowed Russia to build a network of relays along Ukraine’s border to expand the range of its strike drones, allowing greater operational reach and improved resistance to electronic warfare.

Belarusian Capabilities

Threats made without the capability to enforce them are functionally pointless, suggesting that Zelensky believes Ukraine occupies a militarily advantageous position relative to Belarus. This warrants analysis of Belarus’ military capabilities to determine whether they pose a threat to Ukraine. As of 2022, Belarus reportedly maintained an active-duty army of approximately 48,000 soldiers, with inactive trained reserves and additional supporting personnel amounting to another 300,000 people. The country fields 1,200 main battle tanks and 3,400 other armored fighting vehicles, although it is unclear how many remain in active service. Many of these vehicles are of questionable utility, with Belarus operating mainly vintage Soviet equipment and few vehicles having been modernized to contemporary standards. The Belarusian Air Force fares slightly better, fielding 48 front-line fighter aircraft, of which 16 are new Su-30SM/SM2 airframes. The war and its rapidly changing dynamics have forced Belarus to invest in the modernization of its armed forces. However, in contrast to many Western modernization programs, which frequently involve high-value equipment deals, Belarusian efforts have focused more heavily on improving infantry capabilities. Belarus currently funds several programs for procuring modern armored vehicles and has recently made new equipment purchases from Russia, including the nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile known as Oreshnik. More transformative, however, are efforts to reform the country’s mobilization system and employment of experienced Wagner mercenaries to train Belarusian soldiers in drone-centric combat techniques. This could be interpreted either as an inability to afford more comprehensive reforms or as a deliberate shift away from traditional reliance on armored formations in favor of unmanned systems. Regardless of the motivation, these programs demonstrate substantive efforts to improve the military readiness of a vital ally to Russia.

Ukrainian-Belarusian Diplomatic Efforts

Zelensky’s demand follows months of escalating tensions between Belarus and Ukraine, contrasting Belarus’ traditionally ancillary role in Ukrainian foreign relations. Due to Belarus’ refusal to participate directly in combat operations, Kyiv had little incentive to press diplomatic issues and antagonize its northern neighbor. Until the recent flare-up, it was in Ukraine’s interest to keep Belarus on the sidelines while accepting the reality of Belarusian aid and weapons transfers that benefited Russia. Relations between the two countries followed a repeated cycle of saber-rattling, military posturing, de-escalation, and periods of calm. Lukashenko has repeatedly offered his services as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine, although Kyiv has rejected these offers because of Belarus’ close ties to Moscow. Tellingly, despite Belarus aiding its aggressor, Ukraine has maintained diplomatic ties with Minsk throughout the conflict. Lukashenko further offered to open bilateral talks with Kyiv in late 2025 in an attempt to reduce rising tensions. These efforts failed to bear fruit as relations deteriorated to their lowest point since the beginning of the war in May 2026. Following the construction of additional drone launching facilities in Belarus and an increase in Russian drone strikes, Ukrainian diplomacy shifted towards the application of direct pressure. Kyiv’s announcement that it had identified more than 500 strategic Belarusian targets in the event of conflict culminated in Zelensky’s ultimatum to dismantle Russia’s drone relay network within a week. The ultimatum suggests that Ukraine is abandoning its previous strategy of managing tensions with Belarus in favor of direct pressure. It also followed the largest Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow to date. Viewed in that context, Zelensky appears to be leveraging Ukraine’s growing long-range strike capabilities while simultaneously attempting to disrupt a component of Russia’s own drone warfare infrastructure.

Multiple videos circulating on social media show the crash of a Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire-C bomber today. Footage shows the swing-wing bomber entering a steep nose-down dive before slamming into the ground, producing a large plume of black smoke. The footage has not been independently verified, but Russian authorities have confirmed the loss of the aircraft.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense is investigating reports that a Russian Navy warship fired warning shots near a British-registered yacht in the English Channel, according to a statement provided to TWZ today. The reported encounter is the latest in a series of increasingly tense interactions between the United Kingdom and Russia.

The incident reportedly occurred around 20 nautical miles south of the Isle of Wight, off the south coast of England, and outside British territorial waters. According to the Ministry of Defense, the initial report came from the crew of the U.K.-registered yacht, which alleged that a Russian warship fired warning shots at a distance of approximately 500 yards.

According to the Press Association, the incident occurred at around 11:40 a.m. local time, in waters between the Isle of Wight and Normandy.

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson confirmed to us that they are investigating reports of the incident, but stressed that the investigation remains in its early stages.

“No injuries or damage have been reported by the yacht, which is continuing its journey,” the spokesperson added.

The Royal Navy was already shadowing the Russian vessel when the alleged incident occurred, the ministry confirmed.

“HMS Mersey was monitoring the Russian vessel at the time. We cannot provide further comment while investigations are ongoing. A seaboat from HMS Tyne has visited the yacht to gather details and check that they are safe.”

Both HMS Mersey and HMS Tyne are River class offshore patrol vessels, frequently used to shadow Russian and other warships passing through the Channel, which is widely considered the busiest shipping area in the world. 

According to unconfirmed reports, the Russian warship said to be involved is the Admiral Grigorovich, the lead ship of its class, which is also known to NATO as the Krivak V class. The frigate is seen at the top of this story, during an encounter with Royal Navy vessels earlier this year, again in the English Channel.

[Unconfirmed] Russian frigate Grigorovich has fired warning shots at a British yacht in the channel.

British and French ships are mobilising in response.

Incident comes after the Royal Navy boarded Shadow Fleet tanker SMYRTOS (IMO: 9389100) which has been sanctioned by HM…

— Martin Kelly (@_MartinKelly_) June 16, 2026

The Ministry of Defence also sought to distance the incident from another recent maritime security operation in the Channel, in which British forces boarded the Smyrtos, a sanctioned shadow-fleet oil tanker, which was sailing under a false Cameroonian flag.

The boarding of the Smyrtos by Royal Marine Commandos and specially trained law enforcement officers from the National Crime Agency last Sunday was the first U.K.-led operation of its kind. The six-hour military operation also involved Chinook, Merlin, and Wildcat helicopters, a Royal Air Force P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as the frigate HMS Sutherland and the mine countermeasures vessel HMS Ledbury.

It remains unclear exactly which Russian Navy vessel was involved in the incident today, what prompted the alleged warning shots, or whether any communication took place between the warship and the yacht before the incident.

We will update this post as we find out more about today’s incident.

UPDATE: 2:45 PM EDT –

There is growing speculation that the Russian warship involved in the incident may have suffered some kind of mechanical failure or difficulty at sea.

The U.K. Shadow Defense Secretary James Cartlidge said the incident was “very concerning” and the United Kingdom should “be in no doubt that Russia poses a direct threat.”

The leader of the Liberal Democrat party, Ed MacCleary, said: “These reports are extremely concerning. Russia is quite literally on our doorstep. Aggression and intimidation from Putin in the English Channel cannot be tolerated.”

These reports are extremely concerning – Russia is quite literally on our doorstep.

Aggression and intimidation from Putin in the English Channel cannot be tolerated.

This is a clear reminder that the Government cannot afford any further delays to the Defence Investment Plan. https://t.co/xhnoFQ98tE

— Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) June 16, 2026

UPDATE: 2:50 PM EDT –

According to BBC News, the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich fired warning shots after the two vessels came into close contact.

The broadcaster further reports that the “small, motorless yacht had drifted towards the warship in foggy conditions after setting off from the United Kingdom.”

The BBC cites the Russian Ministry of Defense as saying that the yacht had been on a “dangerous approach” towards the warship, and its crew fired into its path “with rifles” after making several attempts to contact it over the radio and after launching warning flares.

The Russian Ministry of Defense further claimed that its sailors had acted in “strict accordance with international shipping regulations.”

A U.K. government source told the BBC that a couple in their 60s were onboard the yacht at the time. They said they did not hear when the Russian frigate sounded its horn.

There have also been unconfirmed reports identifying the yacht involved:

Russians are saying the yacht was ‘Bright Future’ – a British registered 40′ sailing yaht in transit from the Solent to Cherbourg. pic.twitter.com/m3lKpgeHkJ

— JamesFennell MBE (@FennellJW) June 16, 2026

UPDATE: 2:55 PM EDT –

Data obtained by BBC Verify suggests that the Admiral Grigorovich has been in the Channel for an extended period, repeatedly being re-supplied by a repair vessel, so that it can escort shadow-fleet vessels through these waters.

Based on satellite images it has reviewed, the BBC says the frigate has been re-supplied by the PM-82, an Amur class repair ship, while operating between the Channel and the North Sea in recent months.

In April, the frigate was reported to have escorted six shadow fleet vessels through the Channel while being monitored by the Royal Navy.

Two scenarios with the yacht

1️⃣🇷🇺 response to Smyrtos boarding this weekend – #greyzone
2️⃣Risk of collision with drifting⛵️in low viz, followed by Ch 16 warning(?) then shot across bow in ‘self defence’ – #maritimebuffoonery

Both equally likely, I’d say…

— Tom Sharpe (@TomSharpe134) June 16, 2026

UPDATE: 3:00 PM EDT –

At least one Royal Air Force P-8 Poseidon has transited from its base in Scotland to patrol the Channel this evening, according to publicly available flight-tracking data. The maritime patrol aircraft is very likely tasked wth monitoring Russian naval activity in the area.

More details of the incident have been reported by Deborah Haynes, the security and defense editor at Sky News.

Haynes writes on X that the Russian frigate “fired a couple of warning shots” close to the yacht in the Channel after also sounding an alert to avoid it sailing too close. Citing an unnamed defense source, Haynes reports that it is understood that the Admiral Grigorovich appears to be having difficulty controlling its movements, perhaps due to a propulsion issue. 

The warning shots “were certainly not fired at the yacht,” the same source said.

Additionally, while the Admiral Grigorovich has been escorting Russian-flagged vessels through the Channel in recent months, Haynes writes that it was not involved with escorting the Smyrtos, which was boarded by British forces at the weekend.

UPDATE: A Russian warship fired a couple of warning shots close to a UK-registered yacht in the Channel after also sounding an alert to avoid it sailing too close, a defence source said. 
Investigations are still underway to establish exactly what happened. 
From what is…

— Deborah Haynes (@haynesdeborah) June 16, 2026

UPDATE: 3:05 PM EDT –

After reaching out to the U.K. Ministry of Defense for more clarification, TWZ received the following from a spokesperson:

“Following attempts to contact a British vessel in the Channel, the Grigorovich fired warning shots. These were not aimed at the vessel and were an attempt to prevent a possible collision.”

“We assess that this is an isolated incident and not linked to the UK’s interception of the Smyrtos this weekend. HMS Mersey has been monitoring the Russian vessel and support has been provided to the crew of the yacht.”

“We assess that the Grigorovich was displaying to other vessels that it was drifting rather than being manoeuvred under power, which may have made her feel more vulnerable, leading to warning shots being fired.”

“We assess that after sounding warnings, the Grigorovich fired several warning shots, but these were not aimed at the yacht.”

The spokesperson told us that they further assess that the shots fired were single rounds, rather than automatic fire.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Russian artist Robert Kuzakov, known as Semyon Skrepetsky, was shot dead in Poland just three days after a performance protest in Berlin near the Russian embassy. He was known for his caricatures of politicians including Vladimir Putin and Alexei Navalny.

A suspected Russian drone attack on a residential building in Ukraine has injured at least seven people. Emergency services responded as fire ripped through the building in Zaporizhzhia.

EVIAN-LES-BAINS, France — The United States could soon reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments after President Trump and fellow leaders at the Group of Seven summit of major industrialized democracies moved Tuesday to put the war in Ukraine back on top of their agenda, more than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

The Iran war has recently overshadowed Ukraine, but Trump said he wants to shift the focus following the announcement of an agreement to end the 3½-month-old conflict in the Gulf.

Trump said Iran will soon be “back in the rearview mirror.”

Trump said the sanctions on Russia that were eased during the Iran war to help lower oil prices can go back in place as more oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Soon we’ll be able to do that because the oil is now flowing,” Trump told reporters in Evian, the French spa town close to the Swiss border that is hosting the summit. “We’re in a position to do that soon.”

The U.S. in March temporarily eased some sanctions on some Russian oil shipments as crude prices sharply increased. The waiver has been extended.

Zelensky joins G7 leaders for talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky joined the G7 leaders for talks on the war in his country. They wrapped quickly, after just 75 minutes.

Zelensky said Ukraine is serious about peace while Russia toys with world leaders. “The entire ‘Seven’ supports Ukraine unanimously today,” he said.

Zelensky added that G7 leaders supported Ukraine’s need for more Patriot missiles and discussed how to increase production by licensing production. Patriot missiles are able to counter Russian ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and cities.

As the U.S. under Trump has cut back aid to Ukraine, France and its European allies are now the biggest providers of military and financial support to Kyiv.

Trump downplayed the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the U.S. but lamented the death toll.

“The whole thing is ridiculous,” Trump said. “So, yeah, I’m going to do whatever I can.”

Meanwhile, the U.K. announced new sanctions targeting the “shadow fleet ” Russia uses to ship oil and gas, and the finance networks used by Moscow to evade Western sanctions. The ships targeted include several recently purchased by Russia to transport liquefied natural gas from its sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project.

Russia fires again at Ukraine’s biggest cities

Hours before the summit began Monday, Russia fired hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles at Ukraine’s biggest cities in a barrage that killed 11 people and set fire to a religious landmark.

The attacks came after Zelensky and Putin spoke separately by phone with Trump on Sunday, the U.S. leader’s 80th birthday.

While campaigning in 2024 for a return to the White House, Trump claimed he could end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. However, negotiations have faltered and Trump has acknowledged it has proved much harder than he thought.

Ukraine on Monday officially started European Union membership negotiations, launching a process that will require its government to commit to years of political reforms even as it fights the Russian invasion.

Ukraine sees EU membership as a security guarantee for a stable future once the war ends. Its best guarantee would be membership in the NATO military alliance, but the Trump administration insists that cannot happen, and others are wary of Ukraine joining while the war continues.

Trump says he may send Iran deal to Congress

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal got plenty of attention at Tuesday’s sessions, with Trump voicing his openness to sending the deal to Congress for review. The text has not been made public.

“I like the idea, send it to Congress please,” Trump said at the start of a meeting with United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the summit’s sidelines. He added, “I mean who wouldn’t approve it?”

Republicans on Capitol Hill say they want Trump to provide more information about the agreement, with some expressing skepticism that the deal can deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon.

Trump also met with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. The Gulf nations are not part of the G7, but French President Emmanuel Macron extended invitations to their leaders at a fraught moment for their region.

Trump also expressed frustration over Israel’s continued hostilities with the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, telling reporters he’s “not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah.”

Trump said Israeli operations to target Hezbollah “should have been able to deal with them faster,” adding: “It just goes on forever. And when that happens, it throws a negative light on the big deal. And that’s the deal with Iran.”

Macron said France and other Western partners are “ready to take action very quickly” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz peacefully to ease the economic impact of rising oil prices. France and the U.K. have championed a mission to restore maritime security there as soon as conditions allow.

The G7 comprises France, the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. Other guest nations, including Brazil, India, Kenya and South Korea, were invited to participate in some discussions.

Superville, Corbet and Madhani write for the Associated Press. Madhani reported from Geneva. AP writers Jill Lawless and Samuel Petrequin in London, Collin Binkley in Washington and Illia Novikov in Kyiv contributed to this report.