Russia

Kyiv, Ukraine – Hennady Kolesnik never expected the full-scale Russian invasion to last this long.

“These are the worst and longest years of my life,” the 71-year-old retired welder told Al Jazeera four years after the aggression that began on February 24, 2022.

In the first days of the war, he and many Ukrainians were afraid Kyiv would be lost, as well as the third of their France-sized nation that lies on the left, eastern bank of the Dnipro River.

Tens of thousands of Russian troops, including elite airborne units and motor rifle brigades, occupied north of the Kyiv region, while the Kremlin’s supporters triumphantly touted that the capital would be seized “within three days”.

Months later, “we were ecstatic about what we’d regained” after Russian forces withdrew from around Kyiv and were ousted from northern Ukraine, said Kolesnik, a grey-haired, pallid-faced and emaciated pensioner, clutching a cane.

He is recovering from a case of pneumonia that he feared he would not survive amid days-long power outages and disruptions of central heating caused by Russian drones and missiles during a cold spell, when temperatures plunged to as low as -23 degrees Celsius (-9.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

“But we’re still standing, and that’s the most important thing in a fight,” Kolesnik, who used to dabble in boxing, said with a smile.

His wife, Marina, 70, agreed: “Nobody expected us to last that long, and we’re still here.”

However, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to cut Moscow’s “land bridge” from western Russia to annexed Crimea, and Russian troops keep inching forward.

But their advance is glacial amid staggering losses. Last year, they occupied less than 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 sq miles), or about 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s total area, according to Ukrainian officials and Western analysts.

Overall, Russia controls about 19 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

“The front line froze like during World War I,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University told Al Jazeera. “So far, Russia doesn’t have enough forces or new technologies for a decisive and successful advance, but it can still squander thousands of [its soldiers’] lives.”

This month, Russian forces encountered a dual communication problem that reversed their progress.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX company shut down smuggled Starlink satellite internet terminals used by Russian soldiers, while Moscow’s efforts to block the Telegram messaging app further disrupted coordination.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked, regaining about 200 sq km (77 sq miles) in the eastern Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

But in other front-line areas, the pressure is mounting.

Russian drones with attached optic fibre immune to jamming began reaching a heavily-fortified town in the southeastern Donetsk region.

“It has gotten a lot noisier. There are more outages; some locals are panicking,” Sviatoslav, a serviceman stationed in Kramatorsk, told Al Jazeera. He withheld his last name in accordance with wartime protocol.

Moscow insists Kyiv surrender Kramatorsk and the rest of Donetsk – about 1,000 sq km (386 sq miles).

What could affect Ukraine’s stance is further Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.

“Ukraine keeps the front line well, but the functionality of its energy system is hanging by a thread, which may affect a lot,” Mitrokhin said.

Eighty-eight percent of Ukrainians think Russia’s strikes are designed to “force them to capitulate”, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Sociology Institute (KMIS) conducted in late January.

Nevertheless, two-thirds of those polled said Ukraine’s armed forces should fight for “as long as it takes”.

“People en masse are more ready to keep resisting [the invasion] than to capitulate,” Svetlana Chunikhina, vice president of the Association of Political Psychologists, a Kyiv-based group, told Al Jazeera.

And even though there is a spike in depression, anxiety, and chronic stress among Ukrainians, there are no “abrupt jumps” in these conditions, she said.

“People adapt – including through depression – to the war’s horrible circumstances; people keep functioning,” she said.

Ukrainians still hope for a better future, she said.

Only one in five polled Ukrainians hopes the war will end this year, but two in three are sure that in 10 years, Ukraine will be a “thriving” member of the European Union.

“This is the literal realisation of the philosophic principle: ‘get ready for the worst, hope for the best,’” Chunikhina said.

However, brain fog and cynicism are on the rise, she said.

“For the Ukrainian public whose fight against the Russian aggression is largely fuelled by moral virtues – including high ones, such as altruism, patriotism, responsibility to future generations – cynicism could be really destructive,” she said.

News brings little relief.

United States President Donald Trump has so far failed to deliver on his pre-election pledge to end the war “in 24 hours”.

Meanwhile, Russian public figures who support the Kremlin still try to present the invasion as a step to “protect” Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Moscow-based analyst Sergey Markov claims that the war began on February 23, 2014, when pro-Russian protesters began rallying in Crimea, urging the Kremlin to annex the Ukrainian peninsula.

“It was a peaceful uprising of the Russian people for freedom, peace and true democracy,” he wrote on Telegram on Monday.

Ukraine officials say infrastructure damaged as Russia strikes Zaporizhzhia on the war’s fourth anniversary.

Slovakia had issued a two-day ultimatum to Ukraine to reopen the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline so that it could receive Russian oil deliveries.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has said his country will halt emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine until Kyiv reopens a key pipeline transporting Russian oil to Slovakia, making good on an ultimatum he issued to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Fico’s announcement on Monday came two days after he warned Zelenskyy on social media that he would ask state-owned company SEPS to halt emergency supplies of electricity if flows of Russian crude oil via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline crossing Ukraine did not resume.

“As of today, if the Ukrainian side turns to Slovakia with a request for assistance in stabilising the Ukrainian energy grid, such assistance will not be provided,” Fico said in a video on his Facebook page.

Ukrainian grid operator Ukrenergo said in a statement that it had not been officially informed yet, but that it would “not affect the situation in the unified power system of Ukraine”.

“The last time Ukraine requested emergency assistance from Slovakia was over a month ago and in a very limited volume,” it said.

Fico said the stoppage would be lifted “as soon as the transit of oil to Slovakia is restored”.

“Otherwise, we will take further reciprocal steps,” he said, adding his country would also reconsider “its previously constructive positions on Ukraine’s EU membership”.

He said the stalled oil supply was a “purely political decision aimed at blackmailing Slovakia over its international positions on the war in Ukraine”.

Slovakia and neighbouring Hungary, which have both remained dependent on Russian oil since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago, have become increasingly vocal in demanding that Kyiv resume deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which was shut down after what Ukraine said was a Russian drone strike hit infrastructure in late January.

Ukraine says it is fixing the damage on the pipeline, which still carries Russian oil over Ukrainian territory to Europe, as fast as it can.

Slovakia and Hungary say Ukraine is to blame for the prolonged outage and have declared emergencies over the cut in oil deliveries.

The EU imposed a ban on most oil imports from Russia in 2022, but the Druzhba pipeline was exempted to give landlocked Central European countries time to find alternative oil supplies.

Meanwhile, the European Union failed to agree on new sanctions on Russia for the fourth anniversary of Europe’s biggest war since World War II, after Hungary vetoed the move.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban – the friendliest EU leader to the Kremlin – is stalling the sanctions and a 90-billion-euro ($106bn) EU loan to Ukraine until Kyiv reopens the oil pipeline.

Fico also said he has refused to “involve the Slovak Republic” in the latest EU loan due to Zelenskyy’s “unacceptable behaviour”, alluding to Ukraine’s earlier halting of Russian gas supplies after a five-year-old transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025, which Fico claimed is costing Slovakia “damages of 500 million [euros; $590m] per year”.

Hungary and Slovakia have accounted for 68 percent of Ukraine’s imported power this month, according to Kyiv-based consultancy ExPro. It was not immediately clear if emergency electricity supplies were included in that figure.

Feb. 23 (UPI) — A new package of European Union sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the 20th such set of measures, was stalled Monday after being blocked by Hungary, which is demanding Ukraine reopen a pipeline supplying it with Russian oil.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said there was “not going to be progress” on the new round of sanctions at Monday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels in time for the fourth anniversary of the war, which falls Tuesday.

“We are doing our utmost to have the sanctions package, through, and we are looking for ways how we can do it. But as we have heard some very strong statements from Hungary. I don’t really see they are going to change this unfortunately today,” she said.

“We should not tie together things that are not connected to each other at all. But let us listen to them explaining the reasons why they are blocking, and then see whether there are possibilities to overcome.”

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto took to social media Sunday to make Hungary’s quid pro quo stance clear.

“The EU aims to adopt the 20th sanctions package at the Foreign Affairs Council. Hungary will block it. Until Ukraine resumes oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline, we will not allow decisions important to Kyiv to move forward,” Sijjarto wrote on X.

The pipeline was damaged in a Russian attack, but Hungary insists Ukraine is dragging its feet getting it up and running again.

The financial services, trade and energy sanctions package drawn up by the European Commission would bring in a full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil, reducing its income from energy and making it more difficult to find customers. Access to oil tankers for Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” will also be tackled, along with measures targeting its gas exports.

Transaction bans will be imposed on 20 more Russian banks as part of an effort to hobble Russian efforts to create its own payment systems to circumvent a ban on using the SWIFT international payments system while tightening restrictions on exports to Russia, including military-use goods and technologies, and import bans on Russian rare earth minerals, metals and chemicals, worth at least $1.1 billion in total.

Hungary’s block drew sharp criticism from Hungary’s EU partners with Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard telling Euronews it was a “shame” and a “disgrace.”

“Every delay that we have in the adoption of a sanctions package is a failure for Europe,” she said.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he was certain the sanctions package would pass, saying it was a matter of when, not if, while Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw accused the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban of leveraging anti-Ukrainian sentiment it had whipped up to boost its fortunes in elections in April.

Hungary announced Friday it would also block a $105 billion EU loan to Ukraine, accusing Ukraine of blackmailing Hungary by shutting off the pipeline and conspiring with Brussels and the Hungarian opposition to “create supply disruptions” in Hungary to push up fuel prices ahead of the election.

Orban previously agreed not to veto the loan, along with Slovakia and the Czech Republic, provided it was exempted from contributing financially.

Populist Orban has been in power since 2010 after a first term between 1998 and 2002 and has been president of his Fidesz, or Hungarian Civic Party, for the past 23 years.

At its peak, the BRICS coalition of economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – was seen as a serious attempt to move away from the United States dollar and the domination of Western economic institutions like the World Bank, Group of Seven (G7), and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

But BRICS members have different political agendas, and new forces are at play, argues economist Jim O’Neill, a member of Britain’s House of Lords.

O’Neill, who coined the term “BRIC” 25 years ago, tells host Steve Clemons that the US’s economic policies may be the driver of its own decline, coupled with the economic rise of China and India.

Main target was the energy sector, but residential buildings and a railway were also damaged, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says.

Russia has launched dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones at Ukraine, killing at least one person, according to Ukrainian officials.

The most powerful attacks were reported in the regions of Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv, the officials said on Sunday.

Ukraine’s air force said Moscow launched 50 ballistic and cruise missiles and 297 drones overnight, the majority of which were intercepted.

“Moscow continues to invest in strikes more than in diplomacy,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, adding that this past week alone, Russia launched more than 1,300 drones, ‌more than 1,400 guided aerial bombs and 96 missiles against Ukraine.

The president added that Sunday’s attacks targeted the Dnipro, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava and Sumy regions.

The main target of the attack was the energy sector, but residential buildings and a railway were also damaged, he noted.

In a separate incident in the western city of Lviv, which has been largely spared the worst of the conflict, a policewoman was killed and 25 people were injured in the detonation of explosive devices inside a shop on a central shopping street.

Hours later, law enforcement said it had arrested a Ukrainian woman suspected of carrying out the bombing, without providing any further details and saying an investigation was ongoing.

Kyiv attack

Mykola Kalashnyk, head of Kyiv’s military administration, said on Telegram that Russian forces targeted five districts in the Kyiv region, injuring at least 15 people, including four children, and killing one person.

Russian attacks were also reported in the eastern region of Kharkiv, where Governor Oleh Syniehubov said at least 12 settlements were targeted and six people injured.

In southern Ukraine, fires broke out in the region of Odesa as Russian drones struck energy infrastructure, according to Governor Oleh Kiper.

“Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries. An assessment of the state of energy facilities and elimination of the consequences is ongoing,” Kiper wrote on Telegram.

Attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities have become a near-daily occurrence in winter during Russia’s war in Ukraine, which started almost four years ago when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of the neighbouring country.

These attacks deprive millions of Ukrainians of heat, power and running water as temperatures have dropped below minus 10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit), causing thick ice to cover roads and the Dnipro, Europe’s fifth largest river.

Last week, Russia unleashed a barrage of nearly 400 drones and 29 missiles on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the first day of two days of peace negotiations in Geneva, its second large-scale blow in six days.

On February 12, another attack had left 100,000 families without electricity and 3,500 apartment buildings without heat in Kyiv alone.

Sunday’s attacks come as the United States is trying to reach a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

But these efforts – including the talks in Geneva last week and two earlier sessions in the United Arab Emirates – have failed to reach any breakthrough.

A core sticking point is territory. Russia wants Ukraine to pull out from the remaining 20 percent of its eastern region of Donetsk that the Kremlin’s forces have failed to capture – something firmly rejected by Kyiv.

Ukraine does not want to make territorial concessions and is demanding clear security guarantees that it will not be attacked by Russia again if a ceasefire is reached.

These are the key developments from day 1,459 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Sunday, February 22:

Fighting

• A Russian drone attack on Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region killed four people, including a 17-year-old boy, while another attack on the southeastern Zaporizhia region killed a 77-year-old man, according to Ukrainian authorities.
• Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa region wounded two people and caused damage to homes, cars and an energy facility, officials said. Another Russian attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region wounded a 77-year-old man.
• In the Donetsk region, Russian shelling wounded four people in 18 attacks throughout the day, Governor Vadym Filashkin wrote on Telegram. Authorities evacuated 562 people, including 244 children, from front-line settlements.
• Russian forces also hit the facility of US snack food company Mondelez in Sumy, sparking a reaction from Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha, who wrote on X that Russia was “targeting American business interests in Europe”.
• “Moscow cannot speak of economic dialogue with the United States while attacking US-owned production facilities,” Sybiha added.
• In the front-line Kherson region, Russian shelling wounded two police officers and one civilian, Ukraine’s National Police wrote on Telegram. Three apartment buildings, 18 homes, a hospital and numerous public buildings sustained damage.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian security forces “neutralised Russian mercenaries preparing assassination attempts” against “high-profile” figures, including military personnel, intelligence officers and journalists.
• Moscow’s ⁠forces ⁠took control of the village of ⁠Karpivka in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk ⁠region, the Russian RIA state news agency reported on Saturday, citing ‌the Ministry of Defence.
• A Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Belgorod region wounded a man and a three-year-old child, according to the Russian TASS news.
• The Ukrainian General Staff said Ukraine’s home-produced “Flamingo” cruise missiles hit a Russian ballistic missile plant in the Udmurtia region, as well as a gas plant in the Samara region.

Politics and diplomacy

• Zelenskyy held discussions with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the next round of trilateral negotiations with the US and Russia, as well as Ukraine’s energy situation. He said on X that “in many areas, our views align”.
• Zelenskyy said in his evening address that “we continue working every day… so that the next round of negotiations can deliver results for Ukraine, results for peace”.The Ukrainian leader said he was closely coordinating with European partners so that the European Union is “involved in all processes and grows only stronger”.
• Demonstrators in Washington, DC, Paris, and Prague rallied in support of Ukraine ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24.
• Zelenskyy awarded Ukraine’s civilian award, the Order of Princess Olga, to Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo in the Ukrainian capital. Hidalgo’s visit marked her sixth trip to Kyiv since the start of the war.
• Sybiha, the Ukrainian foreign minister, condemned Russia’s alleged ongoing recruitment of Kenyans and other Africans into Moscow’s war, writing that it “evokes the worst memories of colonial attitudes from the past” and warning Africans against signing contracts with Russian recruiters.
• Ukraine enforced new sanctions against the captains of vessels allegedly transporting Russian oil, a list that Zelenskyy said totalled 225 people.

Energy

• Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to stop providing emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv resumed Russian oil transit to Slovakia over Ukrainian territory, through the Druzhba pipeline. Hungary said it would block a 90 billion euro ($106bn) EU loan for Ukraine for the same reason.
• Shipments of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia have been cut ⁠off since January 27, when Kyiv says a Russian drone strike hit pipeline equipment in Western Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary say Ukraine is to blame for the prolonged outage.
• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “rejects and condemns” Hungary and Slovakia’s statements and that the “provocative, irresponsible ultimatums threaten the energy security of the entire region”.
• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticised Hungary’s move on X, writing, “Guess who’s happy”, in an apparent reference to Russia.

Military aid

• The Czech Republic transferred 200 reconnaissance drones to five Ukrainian brigades, equipment worth about $800,000, Ukraine’s Interfax news agency reported.
• Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in an interview with the BBC that the United Kingdom and the EU should send “peaceful ground forces” to “show our support for a free, independent Ukraine”.

Feb. 21 (UPI) — Britain announced it has made a deal with four NATO allies to launch an initiative that would see the five nations manufacture low-cost drones to protect Europe.

The European Group of Five (E5) — Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland — announced on Friday that they will launch the Low-Cost Effectors & Autonomous Platforms initiative, or LEAP, which is “inspired by Ukraine’s battlefield innovation,” the British government said in a press release.

The purpose of the program is to jointly develop low-cost autonomous drones that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization can use to counter Russian provocation in the airspace above NATO-allied nations, Politico reported.

The first focus of LEAP, according to British officials, will be the development of a new surface-to-air weapon that is lightweight and affordable in order to defend against Russia’s drone and missile threats.

“European security is at a pivotal moment,” Luke Pollard, Britian’s Minister for Defense Readiness and Industry, said after the E5 meeting. “The U.K. and our E5 partners are stepping up — investing together in the next generation of air defense and autonomous systems to strengthen NATO’s shield and keep our people safe.”

Over the course of the last year, Russian fighter jets have violated NATO partner’s airspace, including fighter jets over Estonia and drones over Poland, which the E5 countries said has spurred their new plans.

At a meeting Friday in Krakow, Poland, the E5 members met to with NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska to discuss the plans, which she said would be beneficial for Ukraine, which she said needs its allies to step up their support, as well as for all member nations of NATO in Europe.

Britain noted Friday that the new drone initiative comes as it also works with its European allies to develop long-range precision weapons and hypersonic weapons, with plans to spend more than $500 million on those initiatives just this year.

“The stronger each ally becomes, the stronger NATO will be,” Shekerinska said.

Slovakia and Hungary vexed after Russian oil flows via Ukraine halted by alleged Russian drone strike last month.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has issued Ukraine a two-day deadline to resume the pumping of Russian oil through its territory, threatening to cut off electricity to the war-torn country if this demand is not met.

Fico issued his ultimatum to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday, warning on X that he would ask state-owned company SEPS to halt emergency supplies of electricity if flows of Russian crude via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline crossing Ukraine are not resumed by Monday.

Slovakia and neighbouring Hungary, which have both remained dependent on Russian oil since the Kremlin launched its invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago, have become increasingly vocal in demanding Kyiv resume deliveries through the pipeline, which was shut down after what Ukraine said was a Russian drone strike hit infrastructure in late January.

The Slovak leader accused Zelenskyy of acting “maliciously” towards his country, alluding to Ukraine’s earlier halting of Russian gas supplies after a five-year-old transit agreement expired on January 1, 2025, which he claimed is costing Slovakia “damages of 500 million [euros; about $589m] per year”.

Describing Zelenskyy’s actions as “unacceptable behaviour”, he said that his refusal to “involve the Slovak Republic in the latest 90 billion euros ($105bn) military loan for Ukraine” had been “absolutely correct”.

Slovakia is a major source of European electricity for Ukraine, needed as Russian attacks have damaged its grid. Energy sector experts say Slovakia provided 18 percent of record-setting Ukrainian electricity imports last month.

EU loan in peril

Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all opposed the interest-free European Union loan package, which was agreed to by the bloc’s member states back in December to help Ukraine meet its military and economic needs over the coming two years.

While the three nations opposed the package, which replaced a contentious plan to use frozen Russian assets that ran aground over legal concerns, a compromise was reached in which they did not block the initiative and were promised protection from any financial fallout.

However, as tensions mounted over the interrupted supply of Russian oil this week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban threatened on Friday to overturn December’s deal by vetoing the EU loan package.

“As long as Ukraine blocks the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary will block the 90‑billion-euro Ukrainian war loan. We will not be pushed around!” the Hungarian leader wrote on Facebook.

Slovakia and Hungary both received a temporary exemption from an EU policy prohibiting imports of Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine responds

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs slammed Slovakia and Hungary on Saturday for what it called their “ultimatums and blackmail” over energy issues, saying the two countries are “playing into the hands of the aggressor [Russia]”.

The ministry said that Ukraine had provided information on the damage that resulted from “Russian attacks” on the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia, and that repair work is under way.

In the meantime, it said, it has “also proposed alternative ways to resolve the issue of supplying non-Russian oil to these countries”.

Maryna Bondarenko, a 51-year-old journalist, has three packed suitcases in her apartment in Poland, hopeful for the return of peace in Ukraine. She fled Kyiv with her son and mother when Russia invaded on February 24, 2022, expecting to be away for just a month or two. Now, four years later, she continues to work in a Ukrainian language newsroom serving over 1.5 million Ukrainians in Poland. Bondarenko recounts many moments of anticipation for returning home, having even packed her belongings multiple times, convinced the war would soon end.

The ongoing war has resulted in Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War Two, with over 5 million Ukrainians dispersed across Europe, particularly in Central and Eastern regions. Most refugees are women and children due to martial law in Ukraine that prevents military-age men from leaving. Bondarenko expresses a strong desire to reunite with her husband, Andrij Dudko, who works as a drone operator on the front line. However, the harsh conditions in Kyiv, including devastating air strikes and bitter winter, keep her from returning with her child.

In Poland, large Ukrainian communities have formed in cities like Warsaw and Krakow, but this has sometimes led to tensions with local residents over jobs and welfare benefits. Bondarenko wishes to return home but acknowledges that Ukraine will be significantly changed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hopes that 70% of Ukrainians abroad will go back after the war, but surveys indicate that many want to stay away, particularly among younger generations. Her 11-year-old son, Danylo, finds it hard to remember life in Ukraine and finds Poland more familiar, though he has faced some hostility at school.

Additionally, Iryna Kushnir and Olga Yermolenko, who were high school friends in Kharkiv, found each other again in Istanbul, where they moved at the start of the war. Kushnir had hoped for a quick return home but remains in Turkey, now married and employed as a teacher at Istanbul University, while she left her 19-year-old daughter Sofia to study in Ukraine. Yermolenko works remotely for Ukrainian clients and stays in touch with her mother who still lives in Kharkiv. Despite her efforts to adapt to life in Turkey, she feels caught between her past and an uncertain future. Both women follow the war closely, with Yermolenko expressing fear when seeing news of missile strikes in Kharkiv and making sure to check on her mother’s safety.

With information from Reuters

Kharkiv regional administration head, Oleh Syniehubov, reported that 175 ‘combat clashes’ were recorded over the past 24 hours.

A Russian attack on the Kharkiv region killed two police officers Saturday during an evacuation in the village of Seredniy Burlyk, as Moscow and Kyiv continue trading attacks.

The head of Kharkiv’s regional administration, Oleh Syniehubov, reported that the city and 10 populated areas had been subjected to Russian attacks over the past 24 hours.

In Seredniy Burlyk, five people were also wounded by shelling.

“Over the past 24 hours, 175 combat clashes were recorded. On the South-Slobozhansky direction, the enemy four times stormed the positions of our units in the areas of the populated settlements of Staritsa, Lyman, Vovchansky Khutory, and Krugle,” Syniehubov wrote.

Moreover, three people were injured, including a woman, after a Russian air strike targeted one of the private sectors of Sumy, the National Police of Sumy Oblast reported.

According to the police, the Russian attack destroyed two residential buildings and damaged at least 10 neighbouring houses and a gas pipe.

It added that three people who were injured included two children aged five and 17, as well as a 70-year-old woman who was hospitalised.

Attack on an industrial site

Ukrainian drones targeted an industrial site in Russia’s Udmurt Republic, injuring 11 people, three of whom were hospitalised, according to the local health minister, Sergei Bagin, who issued an update on Telegram.

The head of the Udmurt Republic, Alexander Brechalov, also wrote in a Telegram post that “one of the republic’s facilities was attacked by drones”, adding that injuries and damage were reported.

Brechalov did not elaborate on what the targeted facility was responsible for. However, an unofficial Russian Telegram channel, ASTRA, reported after analysing footage from residents that the strike targeted the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a major state defence enterprise.

The Votkinsk factory produces Iskander ballistic missiles, which are often used against Ukraine, as well as nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Ukraine’s military confirmed the attack on the Votkinsk factory and said in a post on Facebook that a “fire was recorded on the territory of the object. The results are getting real.”

The army added that its troops hit a Russian gas processing plant in the Samara region, which caused a fire.

Separately, Russia’s TASS state news agency reported that Ukrainian drones were attempting to ⁠attack production facilities in ⁠Almetyevsk in Russia’s Tatarstan region, citing the head of the city as saying that defence systems were operating.

Russia’s RIA news agency also reported, citing the defence ministry, that Moscow’s forces took control of the village of Karpivka in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine.

One train journey takes a staggering 167 hours to complete, with the railway spanning eight time zones to make it the longest in the world

The longest direct train journey in the world stretches a staggering 5,771 miles and takes almost a week to complete. Passengers on board the train undertake a mammoth journey through eight time zones.

The Trans-Siberian Railroad claims the title of the longest single rail system in the world. It connects east and west Russia, running from Moscow to Vladivostok.

To travel the length of the railway, it takes approximately 167 hours and requires no passenger changes. Heading east from Moscow, the train crosses the country to the Pacific Ocean.

There are even non-stop train options, so all passengers remain on board throughout the seven days. If you prefer to get off and explore the local surroundings, passengers can opt for the stopping service.

However, this takes between 14 and 20 days to complete. The Trans-Siberian railway runs through cities such as Moscow, Yaroslavl, Chelyabinsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Ulan-Ude, Chita, Khabarovsk, and Vladivostok.

There’s also the Trans-Manchurian line, which runs through northern China to Beijing, and the Trans-Mongolian, which heads to Beijing but passes through Ulan Bator.

A famous train on the Trans-Siberian railway is Rossiya (the Russia), which has second-class sleepers, third-class open-plan sleeper bunks, and a restaurant car.

Passengers can pay for four tickets to ensure sole occupancy of a four-berth compartment, even if they’re the only ones travelling. The bunks convert to seats during the day, with toilets and washrooms at the ends of the corridors.

Many tourists who travelled the route chose not to start or end their journey in Russia. Tourists once began in London and made their way to Moscow before boarding the Trans-Siberian Railroad.

Once in Vladivostok, tourists could then head to Korea, Japan, or China without taking a plane. National Geographic also ran tours along the route, offering tourists the chance to travel on “one of the world’s most legendary railways.”

They described the journey: “Set out on an epic train journey across one-third of the world, travelling from Vladivostok, Russia to the heart of Moscow along the legendary Trans-Siberian Railway.

“From the Mongolian steppe to Lake Baikal’s remote shores to the snow-capped Ural Mountains, trace the history of tsars, exiles, and Mongols in the comfort of our luxury train, the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian Express. Encounter remote cultures and the unique architecture of Siberia’s wooden cottages and Moscow’s onion domes.”

Tours like these have been halted, yet the train is reportedly still being used by Russians. The UK Government warn against all travel to Russia.

Official advice from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office says: “FCDO advises against all travel to Russia due to the risks and threats from its continuing invasion of Ukraine, including security incidents, such as drone attacks, and Russian air defence activity, lack of flights to return to the UK and limited ability for the UK government to provide support.”

These are the key developments from day 1,458 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, February 21:

Fighting

• The death toll from a Russian attack on a warehouse in Malynivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region rose to three after rescuers found two more bodies under the rubble, the State Emergency Service said on the Telegram messaging app.
• A Russian drone attack killed two police officers as they were on their way to evacuate residents near the village of Serednii Burluk in Kharkiv, the National Police of Ukraine said on Telegram.
• Russian forces launched a ballistic missile and 128 drones towards Ukraine overnight on Thursday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said on Facebook. Ukrainian forces shot down 107 of the drones, the ministry added.
• Russian attacks caused dozens of injuries and damage to homes and infrastructure, including oil and gas facilities in Ukraine’s Poltava region, according to the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz.
• Russian forces attacked Komyshuvas in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region with guided bombs, causing a fire in residential buildings that injured a 22-year-old woman and a 27-year-old man, regional governor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram.
• In Russia, two people were killed and three were wounded in a Ukrainian drone attack on a car in the rural Maksimovskoye settlement located on the front line in the Belgorod region, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram.
• The attack was one of several by Ukrainian forces across Belgorod, including another strike that killed a man in the village of Pochayevo, the regional emergency task force wrote on Telegram.
• Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of Russia’s Bryansk region, said Ukrainian forces attacked a hospital in the village of Voronok with drones, though no casualties were reported.
• A “significant portion” of the northwest of Russian-occupied Zaporizhia was left without electricity due to “a massive attack” by Ukrainian forces on the region’s electric grid, Russia’s TASS state news agency reported, citing a Russian-appointed official, Yevhen Balitsky.
• Yevgeniya Yashina, communications director at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, told TASS that there was heavy Ukrainian shelling in the vicinity of the facility, which has been under Russian occupation since 2022.

Politics and diplomacy

• French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chair a video conference of Ukraine’s “Coalition of the Allies” on February 24, which will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Macron’s office said on Friday.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters in a WhatsApp group that no positive movement has been made regarding negotiations over the future of Ukrainian land occupied by Russia in peace talks with Moscow mediated by the United States.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that he cannot yet confirm when and where a new round of talks on Ukraine will take place after TASS reported the next talks will take place in Geneva.

Energy

• The European Commission has allowed the German government to take trusteeship of the German assets of US-sanctioned Russian oil group Rosneft, which supplies most of the fuel to Berlin via its PCK Schwedt refinery, when the current arrangement expires on March 10.

• The US Department of the Treasury has extended a sanctions waiver on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil firm NIS until March 20, giving the Balkan country another month to import crude oil supplies, Serbia’s Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said in a statement.
• Hungary will block a 90 billion euro ($106bn) European Union loan for Ukraine until oil transit to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline resumes, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.
• “By blocking oil transit to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, Ukraine violates the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, breaching its commitments to the European Union. We will not give in to this blackmail,” Szijjarto said on X.

Regional security

• Britain and European allies – including France, Germany, Italy and Poland – will work together to develop new low-cost air defence weapons to protect the continent’s skies, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement.

Ukraine expressed frustration with its ongoing peace talks with Russia and the United States this week, saying US pressure was too one-sided against it.

“As of today, we cannot say that the outcome is sufficient,” Zelenskyy told Ukrainians in a Wednesday evening video address.

Before Wednesday’s talks in Geneva had begun, Zelenskyy told Axios news service that ceding the remaining one-fifth of the eastern Donetsk region that Russia doesn’t control, as Moscow has demanded, would not be accepted by Ukrainians.

“Emotionally, people will never forgive this. Never. They will not forgive … me, they will not forgive [the US],” Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukrainians “can’t understand why” they would be asked to give up additional land.

Russia currently controls about 19 percent of Ukraine, down from 26 percent in March 2022.

Last month, 54 percent of surveyed Ukrainians told the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology they categorically reject transferring the whole of the Donetsk region to Russian control, even in return for strong security guarantees, with only 39 percent accepting the proposal.

Two-thirds of respondents also said they did not believe the current US-sponsored peace negotiations would lead to lasting peace.

Instead of ceding land now, Zelenskyy favours freezing the current line of contact as a pretext for a ceasefire and territorial negotiations.

“I think that if we will put in the document … that we stay where we stay on the contact line, I think that people will support this [in a] referendum. That is my opinion,” he told Axios.

Blaming Ukraine

US President Donald Trump told Reuters last month that Ukraine, not Russia, was holding up a peace deal.

But Zelenskyy said it was “not fair” that Trump was putting public pressure on Ukraine to accept Russian terms, adding, “I hope it is just his tactics.”

US senators visiting Odesa last week agreed with him, saying they want their government to put more pressure on Russia.

“Nobody, literally nobody, believes that Russia is acting in good faith in the negotiations with our government and with the Ukrainians. And so pressure becomes the key,” said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island.

Russia unleashed a barrage of 396 attack drones and 29 missiles on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the day of the Geneva talks, its second large-scale blow in six days. On February 12, another attack had left 100,000 families without electricity, and 3,500 apartment buildings without heat in Kyiv alone.

“Russia greets with a strike even the very day new formats begin in Geneva – trilateral and bilateral with the United States,” said Zelenskyy in a video address. “This very clearly shows what Russia wants and what it is truly intent on.”

Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked Western allies to stop Russian energy sales that circumvent sanctions, and to stop exporting components to third countries, which re-export them to Russia’s armaments industry.

Russia is believed to be using a shadow fleet estimated at between 400 and 1,000 oil tankers to carry and sell its crude oil. France has seized two of those tankers, and the US seized a second tanker on Monday.

The US Senate has held off voting on a sanctions bill that has 85 percent support because of opposition from Trump. The bill would impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil – notably India and China.

Can Russia take Donetsk anyway?

Russia has fought since 2014 to seize the two eastern regions of Ukraine, which triggered its invasion – Luhansk and Donetsk – where it claimed a Russian-speaking population was being persecuted by the government in Kyiv.

Late last year, Russia managed to seize all of Luhansk, but analysts believe it is doubtful that it could take the remainder of Donetsk without serious losses, because Ukraine has heavily fortified a series of cities in the western part of the region.

That task has now become even harder, according to observers, since Russia this month lost access to Starlink terminals, which helped it communicate, fly its drones and coordinate accurate counter-battery fire.

As Russian ground assaults have faltered, Ukraine has seized the initiative to make gains in Dnipropetrovsk, said Ukrainian military observer Konstantyn Mashovets.

Ukrainian forces gained 201sq km of territory from Russian occupation forces between February 11 and 15, according to observers, reportedly their fastest advance since a 2023 counteroffensive.

Russia has been trying to replace Starlink using stratospheric balloons, reported Ukrainian Defence Ministry adviser Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov.

Russia would likely take six months to replace Starlink, said a Ukrainian unmanned systems commander, offering Ukrainian forces a window to roll back Russian advances.

It also suffered 31,680 casualties in January, estimated Ukraine’s General Staff – a sustainable number given Russian recruitment levels of about 40,000 a month. But those numbers would rise in the event of a major assault on the remainder of Donetsk, experts say.

“Our goal is to have at least 50,000 confirmed enemy losses every month,” said Ukrainian Minister of Defence Mykhailo Fedorov on February 12, echoing a goal set by Zelenskyy last month.

Fedorov has set out to increase the production of remote-control FPV drones used on the front lines, which Ukraine says are now responsible for 60 percent of all Russian casualties.

As part of that effort, joint drone production facilities are planned in several European countries. The first started operating on February 13 in Germany, Zelenskyy told the Munich Security Conference, and nine more are planned.

In addition, Ukraine’s European allies pledged 38 billion euros ($44.7bn) in military aid this year during a Ramstein format meeting – the alliance of more than 50 countries which plans military aid for Ukraine – including 2.5 billion euros ($2.9bn) for Ukrainian drones – “one of the most successful ‘Ramsteins’,” Fedorov said.

The European Union has additionally voted to borrow 90 billion euros ($106bn) to give to Ukraine in financial aid this year and next.

The US stopped being a donor of military and financial aid to Ukraine after Trump was sworn in as president in January 2025.

Against Trump’s wishes, the US Senate voted to spend $400m in each of the next two years as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays US companies for weapons for Ukraine’s military. Europeans have pledged to spend at least 5 billion euros ($5.8bn) on US weapons this year.

Europe would also be the main contributor to a “reassurance force” policing the line of contact after a ceasefire, and on Ukraine’s insistence, US representatives also met with British, French, German, Italian and Swiss representatives before the talks in Geneva.

These are the key developments from day 1,457 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Friday, February 20:

Fighting

• Russian forces launched 448 attacks on 34 settlements in Ukraine’s front-line Zaporizhia region in a single day, injuring a six-year-old child and damaging homes, cars and other infrastructure, regional governor Ivan Fedorov wrote on the Telegram app.
• Russian drone, missile and artillery attacks on Ukraine’s Kherson region injured five people and damaged homes, including seven high-rise buildings, the local military administration said on Telegram.
• Russian attacks also continued in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions, but local officials there noted that “fortunately, no people were injured”. According to the Kyiv Independent news outlet, overnight was “unusually quiet” following weeks of “heavy fire” in the two regions.
• A man was killed by shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone attack on Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea, Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram.
• A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki in Russia’s Pskov region, local official Mikhail Vedernikov said, according to Russia’s state TASS news agency.
• Russian forces shot down 301 Ukrainian drones, 10 missiles and two guided bombs in a 24-hour period, Russia’s Ministry of Defence said, according to TASS.

Peace process

• United States President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace held its first meeting in Washington, DC, without Belarus participating, despite Trump extending an invitation to the Russian ally.
• Belarus’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that its delegation to the meeting did not receive the necessary visas to enter the US “despite carrying out all the required procedures”.
• The Foreign Ministry questioned, “What kind of peace and what kind of sequence of steps are we talking about if the organisers cannot even complete basic formalities for us to take part?”

• France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Pascal Confavreux expressed surprise to see the European Commission had sent a commissioner to participate in Trump’s meeting, noting that it “does not have a mandate from the [European] Council to go and participate”.

• Confavreux also said France would not take part in Trump’s initiative until the Board of Peace returned its focus to Gaza in line with a United Nations Security Council resolution.
• Several European Union member states have said they will not participate in the peace board after Trump extended an invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is subject to an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.

Regional Security

• Dutch intelligence services AIVD and MIVD said on Thursday that European countries, including the Netherlands, were facing increased hybrid threats from Russia, including cyberattacks, sabotage, influence campaigns and disinformation.

Energy

• Ukraine’s Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is operating on its sole remaining main power line after losing its only backup power line more than a week ago, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said in a statement.
• Hungary is considering halting power and gas exports to Ukraine and will take such steps unless Ukraine resumes the flow of crude oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff told a briefing.
• The Druzhba pipeline, parts of which run through Ukraine, is crucial for the transfer of Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Oil flows have reportedly halted since an attack on the pipeline in January, which Kyiv has blamed on Russia.
• France’s Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry Roland Lescure said his country would provide 71 million euros ($83.5m) in additional funding for Ukraine for services including energy, health and clearing land mines.

Politics and diplomacy

• The head of Russia’s FSB security service accused Telegram messaging app founder Pavel Durov of condoning criminal activity on the platform, in an escalation of Moscow’s rhetoric as it moved to restrict the service that is used by many Russians and Ukrainians to communicate about the war.

•  Dismissing a Russian government allegation that foreign intelligence services are able to see messages sent by Russian soldiers on Telegram, the popular platform said it had not found any breaches of its encryption codes and called Russia’s claims a “deliberate fabrication”, according to the Reuters news agency.

Military aid

• Sweden announced a 12.9 billion crown ($1.42bn) military aid package for Ukraine that will include air defences, drones, long-range missiles and ammunition.

Feb. 19 (UPI) — More than 1,000 Kenyans and other Africans have been deployed by Russia to fight in Ukraine after being recruited by “rogue” agencies that some accuse of human trafficking, a Kenyan intelligence report indicates.

Kenya’s National Intelligence Service on Wednesday reported the number of Kenyans deployed by the Russian military rose from more than 200 in November to more than 1,000 now.

The report indicates at least 89 of those deployed in Russia were serving on the front lines. At least one has died and others have returned to Kenya with injuries or mental trauma.

Kimani Ichung’wah, majority leader of the Kenyan Parliament, blamed a network of corrupt state officials whom he accused of cooperating with human traffickers to provide the Russian military with Kenyans to fight in Ukraine.

Staff at the Russian Embassy in Nairobi and the Kenyan Embassy in Moscow also helped Russia to recruit Kenyans, the Kenyan lawmaker said.

The Russian Embassy denied the allegation and said it never has issued visas to Kenyans to travel to Russia to participate in military operations.

Ichung’wah said many of those fighting for Russia are civilians and former police officers and military personnel ranging in age from their mid-20s to 50 and seeking overseas job opportunities, The Guardian reported.

Russia allegedly is paying them a monthly salary of about $2,700 plus housing and offering bonuses and Russian citizenship for their service.

Kenya is not the only African nation that has citizens allegedly fighting for Russia.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha in November alleged more than 1,400 Africans from 36 countries were deployed by the Russian military to fight in Ukraine.

Many of those soldiers are being held as prisoners of war in Ukraine, Sybiha said.

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and has resisted peace overtures despite participating in ongoing peace talks.

As the U.S. flows assets toward the Middle East, including the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG) now reportedly off the Moroccan coast, Iran, China and Russia will hold their recurring joint naval training exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian media. Moscow and Tehran see the Maritime Security Belt 2026 exercise as particularly relevant in light of current events, and there are reasons for the White House and Pentagon to take note. Having Russian or Chinese warships in these waters amid a U.S. attack on Iran could have military and political implications planners must address. At the same time, the timing of the still ongoing U.S. buildup and the exercise point to it having more of a messaging effect than an operational one.

The exercise, first held in 2019, is being hosted in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, located on the Strait of Hormuz. Russian, Chinese, and Iranian naval units “are expected to participate with various ships and operational capabilities to test coordination, tactical readiness, and rapid-response procedures in the Strait of Hormuz,” the official Iranian Mehr news outlet reported.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) declined to comment on the exercise.

As Iranian and Russian officials gathered Wednesday aboard the Russian corvette Stoiky, a top Iranian official issued a new threat against the growing U.S. Navy presence in the region, which includes the Abraham Lincoln CSG and at least eight other surface combatants. The Ford could arrive in the region in the next four or five days given its location posted by the MarineTraffic ship tracking website. The Navy said only that the ship is now in the Atlantic Ocean.

If the USS Gerald R. Ford keeps her current speed, she will be off the coast of Israel and be able to assist in the defense against an Iranian retaliation by Sunday morning. pic.twitter.com/7OhMJDRxwZ

— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 18, 2026

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has faced threats, noise, propaganda and the presence of extra-regional fleets in West Asia for 47 years, Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Adm. Shahram Irani warned. “The presence of extra-regional fleets in West Asia is unjustified.”

“If the extra-regional fleet feels it has come with power, it should know that the Iranian people will confront them with greater power,” he added. “The faith of the people and missiles are the Islamic Republic of Iran’s deterrent weapons against the enemy.”

Nikolai Patrushev, a top aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, framed the exercise as part of a larger struggle between the U.S. and the BRICS alliance, an informal group of 21 nations that includes Russia, China and Iran. Patrushev took aim at the ongoing U.S. and NATO efforts to seize tankers containing Russian oil as well as the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

“We will tap into the potential of BRICS, which should now be given a full-fledged strategic maritime dimension,” Patrushev posited. “The Maritime Security Belt 2026 exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, where Russia, China, and Iran [will send] their ships, proves to be relevant.”

Both Russia and Iran say the exercise will increase their ability to work together.

“The level of existing interactions and cooperation shows that we can manage and resolve many maritime and coastal issues together,” Captain First Rank Alexey Sergeev, commander of the Russian naval group, said, according to The Telegraph. “We are ready to hold joint exercises in any region, including specialised drills such as anti-maritime terrorism operations that will be executed with vessels and boats from both sides.”

Experts we spoke with say the presence of a small number of Russian and Chinese ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman does not pose a significant threat to U.S. interests, but could complicate efforts to attack Iran. They also note that this exercise was likely planned months ago, well before U.S. President Donald Trump started threatening Iran over its harsh treatment of anti-regime protesters.

“I don’t believe it increases in any significant way the likelihood of conflict with Russia and China, but it probably would introduce additional considerations for any planned strikes against Iran,” Tom Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) think tank and a retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer told us Wednesday morning. 

“For starters, you’d want to make sure that their sensors don’t give advanced warning of your strike to the Iranians, and you’d want to make sure that those Russian and Chinese platforms aren’t in the way,” he explained. “You’d also of course want to ensure that there is no way they could be inadvertently struck a la USS Stark during the Iraq-Iran Tanker Wars of the 1980s.”

The Stark, an Oliver-Hazard Perry class guided-missile frigate, was hit by two Iraqi Exocet missiles while in the Persian Gulf on May 17, 1987. The strike killed 37 sailors and wounded 21 others.   

Shugart downplayed the timing of the exercise, given that its planning has been in the works for a while.

“I also don’t think that the small number of Russian and Chinese ships involved amount to much militarily relative to U.S. naval forces in the region – though their presence might matter politically, should the administration decide it wants to take military action against Iran,” he explained.

“I don’t think this fundamentally changes anything,” former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel told us. “It is an easy way for Russia and China to show support after having abandoned Iran last summer.”

Votel, a retired Army General and current distinguished fellow at the Middle East Institute, was referring to last June’s U.S. Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and Israel’s 12-Day War against Iran. 

How the Israel-Iran ‘12-day war’ unfolded

“Certainly the timing makes it seem more provocative,” Votel added. “There is likely also an internal message for regime supporters – pushing back on the U.S. and Israel.”

“I don’t think it raises the threat of conflict,” the former CENTCOM commander surmised. “I view it as a form of great power competition.”

The presence of Russian and Chinese ships near Bandar Abbas, a major center of Iranian military activity, could complicate U.S. targeting if they remain in the area. The coastal city would be a prime target to take out many types of kinetic capabilities, sensors, and other assets, especially Iran’s naval forces. Still, the Chinese and Russian ships should leave at some point and the U.S. would know their location and it doesn’t appear the U.S. is in a place to strike yet. Unless the exercise goes on for weeks, the Russian and Chinese ships will likely have moved on by the time all the pieces are in place for a U.S.-led kinetic operation to begin.

The joint naval exercise follows a more recently planned drill by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has closed off the Strait of Hormuz for a live-fire exercise. It marks the first time Iran has shut parts of the Strait since Trump threatened Iran with military action in January.

Dubbed “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz,” the drills began Monday and include firing anti-ship cruise missiles at targets and IRGC naval drone and submarine units carrying out operations originating from the three Iranian islands, according to Iranian media.

“The armed drones used in the exercise—capable of engaging both air and sea targets—are among the IRGC Navy’s newest strategic platforms and are deployed in significant numbers, though their names and technical specifications remain classified,” the official Iranian FARS News outlet claimed.

We’ll have to wait and see how the exercises unfold, especially as the U.S. buildup fully matures. But at this time it seems that the presence of these vessels is more of a political factor than an operational one, at least for the time being.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Few places in Ukraine have been spared from the impact of the Ukraine war, including the radioactive exclusion zone around the Chernobyl nuclear plant. Al Jazeera’s Nils Adler has been seeing how the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster has been affected by the war.

Russia is developing a new balloon-borne system that could provide battlefield access to high-speed data communications at a time when its forces are desperate to keep connected. The testing of the Barrage-1 balloon comes as Ukrainian troops are taking advantage of Russia’s loss of access to the SpaceX Starlink satellite constellation network. Both sides have become dependent on the SpaceX system for daily wartime operations, but the restrictions on Russia’s use of Starlink are allowing Kyiv’s forces to fend off attacks in some areas while advancing in others. You can read more about Russia’s Starlink troubles in our initial story here.

As we previously noted, the introduction of Starlink to the battlefield in Ukraine revolutionized how war is waged, giving users high bandwidth, relatively secure communications basically anywhere, all in a small, off-the-shelf package. Though Elon Musk’s SpaceX company provided them to Ukraine, Russians soon came to rely on them as well. However, earlier this month, the company created a list of verified users, cutting Russia off from the system and throwing its troops into disarray. We will talk more about that later in this story.

The Barrage-1 balloon recently underwent its first test flight, according to Russia’s Foundation for Advanced Studies (FFAS), which is developing the system. It “is designed to carry up to 100 kilograms (about 220 pounds) of payload at an altitude of up to 20 kilometers (about 12 miles),” FFAS recently announced on Telegram. One of the payloads being considered is “a promising 5G NTN terrestrial communication equipment, the testing of which is planned for the near future,” the organization claimed.

While not reaching anywhere near the low earth orbit (LEO) altitudes as the Starlink constellation – between 341 miles to 298 miles – Barrage-1 could still serve as an alternative access point for high-speed data transfer for troops on ground below. 

Regardless of FFAS intentions, however, even if it is perfected, the Barrage-1 system will not provide the same level of coverage as Starlink, which is made up of thousands of laser datalink-connected satellites covering the globe. In contrast, Barrage-1 will be guided by “a pneumatic ballast system, which allows changing the flight altitude to utilize wind currents and move in the desired direction.”

“Due to this, the platform can maneuver and stay in a specified area or move along the trajectory required for the payload,” FFAS claimed, despite being in the very earliest stages of testing. 

You can read all about how high-altitude balloons can stay on station even in the presence of prevailing winds in this past story of ours. 

Even though it wouldn’t be a direct match to Starlink, at 12 miles high, it could provide wide-area connectivity similar to that offered by Starlink, albeit over a much more limited area. A mini ‘constellation’ of these systems spread over a region and mesh-networked together, could help solve the line of sight limitations of a single balloon.

Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov sees potential in this system.

“The platform is seen as an accessible and efficient alternative to expensive satellite constellations in LEO,” Beskrestnov explained on Telegram. “One of the priority tasks for ‘Barrage’ will be to test 5G NTN communication. Placing transmitters at an altitude of 20 km will allow providing high-speed internet and communication to vast territories where the construction of ground towers is impossible.”

“In theory and in practice, by controlling the altitude of an aerostat, it can be steered, not precisely, but enough to stay over any territory,” he added.

However, the Barrage-1’s comparatively low altitudes could make them targets for Ukrainian air defense systems and other countermeasures. 

“And what’s most important for us? To have the means that can detect such objects over our territory,” Beskrestnov suggested. “And to have the ability to shoot down such targets if they pose a threat. As far as I remember, the S-300 [surface to air missile system] can engage targets at an altitude of 20-30 km (about 12 to 19 miles).”

Still, successfully targeting and engaging a balloon with a small radar signature using SAMs are two different things. Russia worked on this exact problem extensively during the Cold War, which you can read about here.

The balloons could also fall victim to other forms of attack. It isn’t hard to imagine Ukraine producing a drone to specifically hunt for these systems at longer ranges. Their emissions would make them hard to hide. Also, the electronic warfare aspect is worth noting for the same reasons.

The concept of using balloons as communications nodes is far from new. It has been around for many years. The U.S. military continues to eye using balloons to lug communications relays and gateways aloft as well. As we previously noted, the U.S. once even considered sending balloons over Cuba with equipment that would allow citizens to have access after the government cut it off. For homeland applications, high altitude balloons have been eyed to replace cellular towers, especially after natural disasters have wiped-out ground-based communications.

The SpaceX restrictions have impacted everything from Russia’s high-level command and control, to basic communications and data exchange between troops across the entire battlespace. It has also affected Russia’s drone warfare, including interfering with long-range aerial weapons and uncrewed ground vehicles (UGV). The Kyiv Post article claims that some Russian UGVs have relied on Starlink to operate.

“The loss of Starlink has now forced Russian military logistics troops to return to the use of manned trucks, cars, motorcycles or quad-cycle vehicles,” noted Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major general now serving as a military analyst. “These have proven to be more vulnerable to drone strikes.”

Losing Starlink has slowed down Russian offensive actions and increased their casualties while opening up opportunities for Ukraine to advance, Ukrainian military officials have claimed.

“For three to four days after the shutdown, they really reduced the assault operations,”  Lt. Denis Yaroslavsky, who commands a special reconnaissance unit for the Ukraine Armed Forces, told the New York Post.

“The disruption comes as Russia suffers its worst death rate since the start of the four-year-old war,” U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence officials told the publication.

These are the key developments from day 1,456 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Thursday, February 19:

Fighting

• Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, killing one person and injuring seven others over the past day, the region’s military administration said on the Telegram messaging platform.
• The attacks involved 448 drones as well as 163 artillery strikes, causing damage to 136 homes, cars and other structures, the military administration said.
• Russian forces also continued shelling Ukraine’s Donetsk region, forcing 173 people, including 135 children, to evacuate front-line areas over the past day, regional governor Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram.
• A 54-year-old man was killed in a Russian attack in the Nikopol district of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, Governor Oleksandr Hanzha said on Telegram.
• Russian attacks also left many people without electricity across Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Energy, including more than 99,000 households in the Odesa region.
• In Russia, one person was killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Aleynikovo in the country’s Bryansk region, Governor Alexander Bogomaz said.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that Russian forces seized the village of Kharkivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region and Krynychne in the Zaporizhia region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS.
• Ukrainian battlefield monitoring site DeepState said that Russian forces advanced in Nykyforivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
• Russian forces shot down 155 Ukrainian drones, 11 rocket launchers, and two guided aerial bombs in a 24-hour period, Russia’s Defence Ministry said, according to TASS.

Peace talks

• Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine concluded the second of two days of US-mediated talks in Geneva, with both sides describing the negotiations as “difficult”.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that although “progress has been made … for now, positions differ because the negotiations were difficult”.
• President Zelenskyy later told the Piers Morgan Uncensored current affairs show that Russia and Ukraine were close to defining terms for how a potential ceasefire would be monitored, but progress on “political” issues had been slower, including on the most divisive issue of control of territory.
• In Washington, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said there was “meaningful progress made” with pledges “to continue to work towards a peace deal together”, and more talks are expected in the near future.
• Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s top negotiator, said the two days of talks in Geneva were “difficult but businesslike,” telling reporters that further negotiations would be held soon, without specifying when.
• Rustem Umerov, the head of Kyiv’s negotiating team, said that the second day had been “intensive and substantive” and that both sides were working towards decisions that can be sent to their presidents, he said.

Politics and diplomacy

• Ukraine imposed sanctions against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, promising to “increase countermeasures” against Minsk for supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine, including through providing relay stations for Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, Zelenskyy said on social media.
• United States Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire along with three other US senators from the Democratic Party visited Kyiv.
• Shaheen told reporters that she “would hope that we would see a stronger effort and some real work when we get back to put pressure on Putin”.

Sport

• Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a post on Telegram that “allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in the Milano-Cortina Paralympics while Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine is a disgrace”.
• Estonian Public Broadcasting company Eesti Rahvusringhaaling announced it would not broadcast the games in protest at the decision to allow the Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under their own flags.