revenue

President Trump came to battleground North Carolina doubling down on a tantalizing and implausible midterm promise. “If we win,” he said, “we’re going to get you $5,000. So that’s it. Very simple.”

The Republican candidates who spoke at the rally had nothing to say about it.

Their silence reflects a broader pattern. About a week after the president unveiled his “Trump dividend” pledge at the party’s unusual midterm convention in Dallas, there is little evidence that Republicans in competitive races have incorporated it into their campaigns.

The pledge hasn’t been a staple of television advertising, whether from Trump’s own political operation or his party’s candidates. It usually only comes up when reporters ask about it, prompting most Republicans to sidestep the idea.

The Republican National Committee considers the proposed payments part of Trump’s broader economic vision and says candidates should get behind it.

“Of course we encourage all Republican candidates to run on his agenda, and that includes efforts to put more money in the pockets of the American people,” spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said.

There are some exceptions. Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who is seeking reelection in a battleground Wisconsin district, has praised the proposal.

The idea comes as the economy confronts rising interest rates, continuing inflation and climbing fuel costs. Republicans are fighting to keep their majorities in the House and Senate.

Trump previously promised to use savings from his White House advisory team, which he calls the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, and revenue from tariffs on imports to distribute payments of $2,000 or more, but none of that came to pass. The president has said he did not think congressional approval would be needed for the idea, which could cost more than $1 trillion, but House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) indicated the promise would require lawmakers to act.

Democrats point to those previous suggestions for a payout to raise skepticism about the $5,000 pledge.

“This idea is nothing more than a recycled broken promise that voters know Republicans will never deliver,” said Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the House Democratic campaign arm.

Republican campaign advertising has largely focused on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including provisions that temporarily cut taxes on tips and overtime. Other candidates are concentrating on local issues or attacks against their opponents.

Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former Republican National Committee communications director, said there is little mystery about why candidates have been reluctant to embrace the pledge.

“It’s a dumb idea,” Heye said. “There’s no way to pay for it and it would spike inflation.”

Catalini writes for the Associated Press.

Donald Trump Jr. has a lot more in common with his dad than just a name, sharing the president’s penchant for shady dealings and for kleptocratic Russians. Sometimes the two proclivities go together. That was the case in May, we learned this week from ProPublica, when Don Jr. married his second wife during a three-day Bahamian bacchanal bankrolled partly with hundreds of thousands of dollars from a Putin-allied oligarch the Trump scion met only recently.

I had to wonder — recalling Don Jr.’s response in 2016 on learning Russia helpfully wanted to dump dirt on Hillary Clinton — whether he replied in kind when his new Russian friend, Umar Kremlev, offered the wedding grift, er, gift: “If it’s what you say I love it.”

My second thought was that Don Jr. is just like his dad in wanting to spend other people’s money, even as the Trump family has accrued billions since President Trump has been back in office. (Cue the continued silence from the sleuths of Hunter Biden’s laptop.)

Just days before ProPublica’s exposé, at last week’s midterm Republican convention in Dallas, the elder Trump proffered a gift of $5,000 to every one of the roughly 270 million adult Americans. But the eponymous “Trump dividend” would come only if Republicans keep their House and Senate majorities after the November midterm elections.

The tab? More than $1 trillion, roughly $1.3 trillion. How generous Trump is with the U.S. Treasury, despite the news just last month that rattled bond markets and raised interest rates: The United States’ gross debt has exceeded $40 trillion. As Trump told CNBC in 2016: “I love debt. I love playing with it.” We can’t say he didn’t warn us. Even before his proposed 5K giveaway, Trump was on track to break his first-term record for adding to the unsustainable U.S. debt ($8.4 trillion).

Trump’s unprecedented offer of a post-election payout provoked predictable cries of “bribery” from Democrats and other critics. But legality aside, even the appearance of a bribe isn’t what bothers me most about the proposal.

For one thing, it won’t happen. No one will be receiving a $5,000 Trump dividend, just like no one received the DOGE dividend or $2,000 tariff refund he previously promised. Even if Republicans pull off a miracle and retain control of Congress, those in power show no zeal for his budget-buster, not after their complicity in adding trillions to the debt since last year with tax cuts, war costs and this, that and the other Trump pet project. And Congress indeed would have to act, under the Constitution, despite suggestions from the obsequious Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, that Trump could act alone. (But “I’m not ready to discuss it at present,” Bessent told a House committee on Tuesday.)

No, what bothers me most about Trump’s idea — what outrages me — is the damnable fiscal irresponsibility of it.

Trump has turned much of historical Republican orthodoxy on its head, including on immigration, trade and policy toward Russia. But his utter disregard for annual deficits — a record $2 trillion for this fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 — and his shameful profligacy with taxpayers’ money is something Americans haven’t seen in their lifetimes, in either party. Worse, Trump implies otherwise, that he is fiscally responsible, and he does it with lies that are so easily refuted, so often contradicted by his own words, that it’s a marvel that even such a chronic prevaricator as himself can utter them.

This week Trump is still claiming that the $5,000 dividend will be paid for because “we’re taking in trillions and trillions of dollars” in revenue from his inflationary tariffs on more than half of the goods imported into the country. The actual number isn’t even close to that, and he should know it: The data that nonpartisan analysts are crunching are from the government he supposedly runs.

In 2026, tariff revenue through August was just under $200 billion, but more than half of that already has been spent on refunds to big corporations including Amazon, Walmart and Home Depot, in keeping with a Supreme Court ruling against some of Trump’s tariffs. And as if Trump’s dividend proposal weren’t mendacious enough, in making it he seems to have forgotten his claim in his State of the Union address in February that he would use the tsunami of tariff revenue to abolish the federal income tax.

And one last thing: Even if each adult American got $5,000, subtract from that the nearly $2,000 that each household has paid, on average, because of higher tariffs since Trump took office, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.

In this one dumb idea, in sum, the giveaway manifests just about all that is wrong with Trump as president: The lying, of course. Fiscal recklessness. The trashing of commendable Republican doctrines. The Trump bubble of sycophantic yay-sayers. And, in turn, the seat-of-his-pants policy idiocy, from war-making to White House demolishing.

The lack of any actual policy deliberation behind Trump’s $5,000 shocker was clear in his lackeys’ flailing and contradictory reactions — not just Bessent’s specious claim of presidential authority, but also Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s inane insistence the administration could somehow “earn the money that Donald Trump wants to pay out” and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett’s comment, contrary to Bessent’s, that the White House is indeed looking to Congress for funds.

The good news? Americans get it. Recent polls have the percentage approving of Trump’s handling of the economy as low as 28%. Significant majorities say they are worse off since he became president again.

Such numbers portend an election result that isn’t likely to be changed by a promise of $5,000. Especially from a serial promise-breaker.

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Dell’s management highlights persistent shortages, especially in DRAM and NAND, as limiting supply, with additional constraints in CPUs, optics, and other components. Supply issues are cited as the primary limiter to fulfilling record AI and infrastructure demand.

Nvidia posted quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion (€82.4bn) on Wednesday, comfortably beating the $92.2 billion (€79bn) Wall Street had expected, as chief executive Jensen Huang declared that artificial intelligence had reached “its inflection point” and guided next quarter revenue to $108 billion (€92.5bn) — again, above forecasts.

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“AI has reached its inflection point,” Huang said in a statement. “It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue, and demand is accelerating.”

Shares initially dipped after the release before recovering in after-hours trading.

Days on which Nvidia reports its quarterly results have an outsized importance for the world’s most valuable company.

At a market capitalisation north of $5 trillion (€4.3tn) it is the most valuable company in the world, worth more than the GDP of Japan, the fourth largest economy in the world.

Yet there is a strange rite that plays out each quarter: Nvidia beats expectations, and the stock falls anyway. It happened after the first-quarter beat this year, when shares slid close to 5% in the days that followed.

The pattern has left a dynamic where the company needs to significantly outperform an already-bullish consensus, or provide a stronger-than-expected outlook, to move the share price higher.

The concentration problem

The main concern around Nvidia is not whether it can grow; it is more of a question of who it is growing for.

The firm still draws the bulk of its revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft, each of which is now designing its own chips to reduce reliance on the company. The new disclosure will show precisely how large that dependence remains.

Chief Executive Jensen Huang’s commentary on demand into 2027 therefore carries more weight than any single figure. The question has grown sharper since July, when markets fell on doubts about whether vast AI investments will ever generate proportionate returns.

Nvidia’s answer has been to help finance the buildout itself. This month alone it assembled a $500bn (€428bn) capital pool with six Wall Street asset managers for data centre projects, and separately committed up to $105bn (€90bn) to back an OpenAI data centre in Pike County, Ohio, with an initial capacity of 4.25 gigawatts and an option for a further 3.75.

The China wildcard

Export policy to China has been one of the most volatile threads in Nvidia’s recent history and is likely to feature heavily on the earnings call.

Washington barred sales of the China-specific H20 chip in April 2025, reversed course, and Nvidia has since received approval to ship the more capable H200 chip to vetted Chinese customers.

Reports have surfaced of large allocations to ByteDance and Tencent, though Beijing has been encouraging domestic firms to limit their purchases and prioritise homegrown alternatives.

Vera Rubin and the road ahead

Nvidia’s current growth is being driven by its Blackwell chips, the generation of processors powering most AI data centres today. Their successor, known as Vera Rubin, is expected to begin shipping in the second half of the year.

Nvidia has a tradition of naming its chip architectures after scientists and past generations include Ampere, named after physicist André-Marie Ampère; Hopper, named after computer scientist Grace Hopper; and the current Blackwell chip named after mathematician David Blackwell.

Vera Rubin continues that pattern. She was an American astronomer whose observations of how galaxies rotate provided some of the strongest early evidence for the existence of dark matter, the invisible mass thought to make up much of the universe. She died in 2016 and is widely seen as someone who was overlooked for a Nobel Prize during her lifetime,

The company has pointed to an order backlog it says is worth around $1 trillion (€857bn) across 2026 and 2027, though that figure comes from company commentary rather than independently verified financial disclosure.

A week stacked with catalysts

Wednesday’s data offered no relief on inflation.

The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose 0.2% in July against expectations of 0.1%, leaving the annual rate at 3.7% rather than easing to the 3.6% forecast. Core prices held at 3.3% over the year, above the Fed’s 2% target for a 65th consecutive month.

The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favour of a quarter-point increase.

Markets currently put the probability of a September hike at around 40%.

Attention now shifts to Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his keynote on Friday morning, his first since taking office in May, 19 days before the next rate decision. The ECB’s Isabel Schnabel joins a panel the same afternoon.

US stock markets drifted through a quiet session on Wednesday after data showed inflation last month was a touch higher than economists had expected.

The S&P 500 edged down less than 0.1% and remains near the all-time high it set earlier this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq composite slipped 0.1%.

Treasury yields ticked higher after the inflation update, which has traders still largely betting the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate before the end of this year. Oil prices fell after another volatile session.