Pakistan

WASHINGTON — Vice President JD Vance departed Friday for Islamabad, Pakistan, to open the first direct negotiations aimed at ending the war between the United States and Iran.

Together with a delegation of deeply mistrusting negotiators from Tehran, Vance is tasked with striking a lasting peace between rival nations which have failed to keep promises made days ago in a delicate last-minute ceasefire. Ongoing military activity in the Middle East and disagreements over Iran’s control of key shipping routes have left the diplomatic effort vulnerable to collapse before the talks even begin.

“If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand,” Vance told reporters before boarding Air Force Two. “If they’re gonna try and play us, then they’re gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

On Tuesday, President Trump called off his plans to unleash “hell” on Iran based on assurances that it lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but traffic through the vital waterway was still at a trickle Friday, as more than 600 ships remained stranded in the Persian Gulf, according to marine tracking data. Trump accused Iran on Thursday of doing a “very poor job, dishonorable some would say,” of allowing oil through the strait.

“The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!” he wrote on Truth Social Friday.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has emerged as the central dispute threatening to derail the talks before they begin.

Hours after the ceasefire took effect, Israel launched what Lebanese officials described as its heaviest wave of strikes since the war began, killing at least 303 people, according to local health officials.

Jerusalem argues the Lebanese front is still on the table, but Iran and Pakistan disagree.

“The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier this week. “The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”

Vance has acknowledged a “legitimate misunderstanding” over whether Lebanon was included in the ceasefire terms, telling reporters Washington never made that promise.

Separate negotiations regarding Lebanon are expected next week in Washington, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed Friday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also OK’d the talks, but said a ceasefire is not possible.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and the Iranian delegation arrived early Saturday in Islamabad, Iranian state media reported. Hours earlier he said a ceasefire in Lebanon “must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.”

Bagher Qalibaf added a second condition — the release of frozen Iranian assets — which he suggested must be returned before Tehran takes its seat at the bargaining table. Little is known about the halted Iranian funds overseas, but such assets are typically held back as a result of U.S.-imposed sanctions.

The vice president’s role in peace talks has grown in recent weeks. Administration officials have cast Vance as one of the few leaders Tehran would be willing to engage with directly. With a global economy upended by Trump’s far-reaching military ambitions, a victory in Islamabad could spike Vance’s standing as a prospect to lead the GOP post-Trump.

That’s if he’s able to take pressure off American wallets with an agreement that liberates Iran’s grip over the strait, which has choked much of the world’s oil supply,

Americans have continued to feel the fallout at the gas pump and grocery stores, as U.S. inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, the highest annual rate in nearly two years, according to the data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly prices rose 0.9%, a sharp increase from February’s 0.3% monthly rise, when annual inflation sat at 2.4%, the new data showed.

The White House characterized the rising inflation as a short-term disruption caused by the Iran war, while noting that the administration is “diligently working to mitigate” rising costs.

“As the Administration ensures the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, the American economy remains on a solid trajectory thanks to the Administration’s robust supply-side agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai wrote on X.

Britain announced a meeting next week with dozens of countries to coordinate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The summit will focus countering Iran’s proposal to charge transit tolls to allow ships through the waterway.

In a televised address to the nation, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke of a “devastating storm of inflation,” if peace talks don’t succeed in liberating the Middle East’s oil supply. He characterized the current stage as a “make-or-break moment.”

“We will make every possible effort to ensure the success of the peace process,” he said.

Donald Trump said he is “very optimistic” that a peace agreement with Iran is close, as a diplomatic team led by Vice President JD Vance heads to Pakistan for high-stakes talks this weekend aimed at ending the war. Meanwhile, however, there is no indication that Iran is easing its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has triggered what is reportedly the most severe disruption to global energy supplies on record.

Vance is leading the American delegation, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, both of whom participated in three rounds of indirect nuclear talks with Iranian negotiators in Oman before the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

Boarding Air Force Two on his way to the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, the vice president said, “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s gonna be positive. We’ll of course see.”

Vance also cited Trump, adding: “If the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we’re certainly willing to extend the open hand.”

But he said: “If they’re gonna try and play us, then they’re gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive.”

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said on Friday that two previously agreed conditions — a ceasefire in Lebanon and the unfreezing of Iranian assets — must be fulfilled before any negotiations can begin.

Posting on X, he stated that these steps were part of mutual commitments between the parties and cautioned that talks should not proceed until they are implemented, as disagreements over ceasefire terms and ongoing fighting in Lebanon continue to escalate.

President Trump said that Iran has “no cards,” in a post on social media today.

Writing on Truth Social, he said: “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short-term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!”

Islamabad, Pakistan – With key differences in the Iranian and American positions seemingly intact, Pakistan is aiming for what officials describe as a realistic – if modest – outcome from the negotiations between the two warring nations set to commence in Islamabad on Saturday.

The aim: to get the United States and Iranian negotiators to find enough common ground to continue talks.

On Friday, US Vice President JD Vance left Washington for Islamabad, where he will lead the American team, which will also consist of President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. While Iran has not formally confirmed its representatives at the talks, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are expected to lead Tehran’s team.

These high-level talks follow days after the US and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire, and will be held exactly six weeks after the US and Israel launched their war on Iran with the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Experts and sources close to the mediation effort said there was little expectation that a major breakthrough would be reached on Saturday. But by setting a more realistic ceiling – an agreement in Islamabad to continue deeper negotiations aimed at finding a lasting peace deal – Pakistan is hopeful it can help build on a truce that led to a collective sigh of relief globally.

“Pakistan has succeeded in getting them together. We got them to sit at a table. Now it is for the parties to decide whether they are willing to make the sacrifices necessary to reach an eventual solution,” Zamir Akram, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, told Al Jazeera.

Now, he added, it will aim to secure an agreement for the US and Iran to continue dialogue.

The ‘proximity format’

The US and Iranian delegations will land at the Nur Khan airbase outside Islamabad and then drive to the Serena Hotel, where they will stay, and where the talks will be held.

Though the two teams will be in the same hotel, they will not come face to face for the negotiations, officials said.

Instead, they will sit in two separate rooms, with Pakistani officials shuttling messages between them.

In diplomatic jargon, such negotiations are known as proximity talks.

Pakistan’s experience with such a dialogue is not new. In 1988, Islamabad itself participated in the Geneva Accords negotiations on the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, where UN-mediated indirect talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan produced a landmark agreement.

Akram, who has represented Pakistan at the UN in Geneva from 2008 to 2015, said that history was relevant.

“Proximity talks have been used before. Pakistan itself participated in one in Geneva in 1988 on the Afghan issue,” he told Al Jazeera. “If the parties did not trust Pakistan, they would not be here. The metric of success should be an agreement to continue this process in search of a solution. It will not happen in a couple of days.”

Building diplomatic momentum

In the days between the ceasefire announcement on April 7 and the arrival of the delegations in Islamabad, world leaders moved quickly to register support.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres welcomed the ceasefire and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s role. Kazakhstan, Romania and the United Kingdom also issued statements endorsing Islamabad’s mediation.

French President Emmanuel Macron called Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to congratulate him, while Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also spoke to the Pakistani leader.

Analysts say these calls were not only expressions of goodwill but signals of international backing, aimed at strengthening Pakistan’s hand in pushing both Washington and Tehran to deliver results.

Sharif spoke with eight world leaders, including the emir of Qatar, the presidents of France and Turkiye, the prime ministers of Italy and Lebanon, the king of Bahrain and the chancellors of Germany and Austria.

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also deputy prime minister, engaged with more than a dozen counterparts over the past two days and held an in-person meeting with China’s ambassador in Islamabad.

In total, Pakistan’s leadership made or received more than 25 diplomatic contacts in roughly 48 hours.

Salma Malik, a professor of strategic studies at Quaid-i-Azam University, said the scale of engagement reflected confidence in Pakistan’s role.

“The two main parties showed confidence in Pakistan to act as a neutral agent, that is the first and most critical litmus test for any mediating country, and Pakistan passed it,” she told Al Jazeera.

The Lebanon problem

The most immediate threat to Saturday’s talks lies outside the negotiating room.

Iran has framed Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a direct challenge to the ceasefire. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who spoke to Sharif earlier this week, warned that continued attacks would render negotiations meaningless.

Hours after the ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its most widespread bombardment of Lebanon since the start of the conflict, killing more than 300 people across Beirut and southern Lebanon in a single day.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran could abandon the ceasefire entirely if the strikes continued.

Sharif, in a call with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on April 9, strongly condemned Israel’s actions.

Whether Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire remains contested. Pakistan has maintained that the truce extends across the wider region, including Lebanon, as reflected in Sharif’s statement earlier this week.

Washington has taken a different view. US Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the American delegation, said in Budapest that Lebanon falls outside the ceasefire’s terms, a position echoed by President Donald Trump and the White House.

Seema Baloch, a former Pakistani envoy, said the issue ultimately rests with Washington.

“Lebanon is key and Israel will use it to play the spoiler role,” she told Al Jazeera. “It is now the US decision whether it will allow Israel, which is not seated at the negotiating table, to play that role.”

There are, however, signs of limited de-escalation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel was ready to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible”, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and reaching a peace agreement.

The announcement followed US pressure. Trump told NBC he had asked Netanyahu to “low-key it” on Lebanon.

However, Netanyahu made clear there was no ceasefire in Lebanon, saying Israel would continue striking Hezbollah even as talks proceed.

Salman Bashir, a former Pakistani foreign secretary, said Lebanon remains within the ceasefire’s scope.

“Lebanon is very much part of the ceasefire, as was mentioned in the prime minister’s statement,” he told Al Jazeera. “The Israelis may be inclined to keep the pressure on Lebanon, but not for long if the US is keen on a cessation of hostilities, as it seems.”

Stumbling blocks

Beyond Lebanon, several other obstacles remain.

Washington is expected to push for verifiable restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme, including limits on enrichment and the removal of stockpiled material.

Tehran, in turn, is demanding full sanctions relief, formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium and compensation for wartime damage.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes in peacetime, remains a key pressure point, with Iran retaining the ability to disrupt maritime traffic.

Bashir said there could be movement on some of these issues.

“There may be an opening on the Strait of Hormuz, under Iranian control. Iran will not give up on the right to enrichment. If nothing else, there should be an extension of the ceasefire deadline,” he told Al Jazeera.

Muhammad Shoaib, a professor of international relations in Islamabad, said progress would depend on movement on core issues.

“Both parties agreeing on the need to continue or even extend the ceasefire, while in principle agreeing on crucial points such as the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s right to enrichment and respect for sovereignty, will suggest that the first round is meaningful and successful,” he told Al Jazeera.

The regional atmosphere has also been shaped by sharp rhetoric from some of Iran’s Gulf neighbours.

The United Arab Emirates, which faced hundreds of missile and drone attacks during the conflict, has been among the most vocal.

Its ambassador to Washington wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a ceasefire alone would not be sufficient and called for a comprehensive outcome addressing Iran’s “full range of threats”.

Bahrain, meanwhile, presented a United Nations Security Council resolution on April 7 calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The measure received 11 votes in favour but was vetoed by Russia and China, with Pakistan and Colombia abstaining.

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt are not expected to have a formal presence at the talks, despite being closely involved in pre-negotiation diplomacy. The four countries held meetings in Riyadh and later in Islamabad aimed at securing a pause in hostilities.

Israel, a party to the conflict, will also not be represented. Pakistan, like most Muslim-majority countries, does not recognise Israel and has no diplomatic relations with it.

A slight easing

There are, however, tentative signs of easing tensions ahead of Saturday’s talks.

On Friday, as he was departing from Washington, Vance said that the US team was “looking forward to the negotiations”.

“We think it’s going to be positive. We’ll, of course, see. As the president of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we are certainly willing to extend an open hand,” the US vice president said. “If they try to play us, they’re going to find that the negotiating team is not that receptive. So we’ll try to have a positive negotiation.”

He also said that Trump had given the US team “some pretty clear guidelines”.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister spoke with his Iranian counterpart for the first time since the war started.

And Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said on April 8 that discussions could continue for up to 15 days, suggesting readiness for a prolonged process.

Akram, the former envoy, said the benchmark for success was clear.

“What they need to agree is that they will find a solution, and that in itself would be a step in the right direction,” he told Al Jazeera. “Finding a long-term solution will take time. It will not happen in a couple of days.”

Malik, the academic in Islamabad, said Pakistan’s expectations remained modest.

“What Pakistan expects is breathing space, an opportunity for peace. It is not expecting anything big. It is a small wish, but realising it will be very difficult,” she told Al Jazeera.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warns ‘time is running out’ amid Israel’s continuing attacks on Lebanon.

WASHINGTON — Pivotal negotiations in Pakistan this weekend between the United States and Iran could hinge on developments in Lebanon, where ongoing Israeli strikes Thursday risked derailing a wider regional ceasefire.

Tensions only deepened amid reports of limited Iranian drone attacks across the region, and as Arab states warned that the Strait of Hormuz — a vital global shipping route — had only partially reopened despite President Trump’s assurances that Tehran had guaranteed full access.

Yet tests of the ceasefire have not deterred Iranian and American officials from their plans to travel to Pakistan on Saturday for the highest-level talks between the two nations, aimed at a final agreement to end the war, now in its sixth week.

The stakes are high for Iran, which has been pummeled by U.S. attacks, and for Trump, whose pursuit of the war has been domestically unpopular. The plan appeared precarious early Thursday, amid ongoing disagreement over whether the ceasefire included Lebanon.

Iran warned that continued Israeli attacks targeting the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon could jeopardize the two-day-old truce. Hours later, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government would open direct negotiations with Lebanon — but subsequently declared he would not cease strikes there.

His move to negotiate with the Lebanese came the day after President Trump asked Netanyahu to slow operations in Lebanon ahead of the Pakistan talks, a source familiar with the matter told The Times. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, told reporters Thursday that the talks starting would be “contingent” upon hostilities ceasing in Lebanon.

As Israel’s posture on Lebanon injected uncertainty into the situation Thursday, the Strait of Hormuz — which Iran agreed to reopen in the ceasefire deal — remained closed, according to Sultan Al Jaber, a government minister in the United Arab Emirates. Traffic through the strait was below 10% of its usual volume Thursday, with only seven ships passing through in a 24-hour period, Reuters reported.

Trump, however, projected optimism Thursday about the weekend negotiations in Islamabad — even as the U.S. position appeared to weaken.

“I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said in an interview with NBC News. He said he was “very optimistic” that a deal with Iran was in reach.

A White House official said Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. delegation, which will also include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. They would be the highest-level talks between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

An Israeli official said the separate talks with Lebanon, to be conducted by the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington, would start next week at the State Department. A State Department official confirmed the agency would host the talks.

Israel is not a direct party to the weekend negotiations in Pakistan between the U.S. and Iran. But “the United States knows our red lines in terms of nuclear disarmament, proxies, ballistic missile production,” the Israeli official said. “We believe we’re on the same page here.”

The Tuesday night ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran came after 39 days of conflict in the region, set off by Trump’s Feb. 28 attack on Iran. The full terms have not been publicly disclosed, and much remains uncertain about the agreement.

The agreement got off to a shaky start Wednesday: The strait remained restricted as the Iranians accused Americans of violating the agreement and it emerged that the U.S. and Israel were at odds with Iran over whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire.

Trump threatened late Wednesday on his social media website that if Iran did not comply with the ceasefire, “then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

The deal’s status became even more fragile as Thursday dawned and Iran said Israeli strikes in Lebanon overnight violated the agreement. European leaders and the prime minister of Pakistan, which is brokering U.S.-Iran talks, warned that the operations could be putting the truce at risk.

“This is a dangerous sign of deception and lack of commitment to potential agreements,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday. “The continuation of these actions will render negotiations meaningless.”

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned of “explicit costs” for any moves Iran views as violations of the ceasefire, saying Lebanon was an “inseparable part” of the deal.

Israel and the U.S. have said that Lebanon, where Israel says it is targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, was not part of the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu said in a Thursday evening statement that he was pursuing negotiations at the request of the Lebanese government.

“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with full force, and we will not stop until we restore your security,” he said.

Also Thursday, House Republicans rebuffed an attempt by Democrats to vote on restricting Trump’s war powers. Democratic leaders — who have raised concerns about Trump’s Easter Sunday threat to wipe out Iranian civilization and said his statement amounted to threatening war crimes — afterward called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring Congress back to session.

Meanwhile, Trump railed on his social media website against conservative figures who have criticized his approach to the war, including former Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, calling them “stupid people” and proclaiming that the United States “IS NOW THE ‘HOTTEST’ COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD!”

He also continued to attack NATO members for not living up to his expectations in helping him with the war in Iran. In a post earlier Thursday, the president said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been “very disappointing” and suggested the United States needs to pressure allies in order for them to respond to its needs.

That followed a meeting Wednesday afternoon with NATO Secretary Mark Rutte at the White House, after which Trump asserted online that “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN.”

In an interview with CNN, Rutte said Trump had made his disappointment with NATO allies clear. Rutte said he had emphasized to Trump that a large majority of European nations have given the U.S. some logistical military help, such as allowing American warplanes to land at their bases and fly over their territories.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said Israel’s surprise barrage of airstrikes on Wednesday killed 303 people and wounded about 1,150 others, in a preliminary toll. It added that the numbers were likely to rise while search efforts for bodies and DNA testing continue.

If direct negotiations with Israel do take place, they would break a long-standing political taboo for Lebanon. Successive governments have dealt with Israeli diplomats only as far as allowing technical discussions with Lebanese military officials via the United Nations.

The prospect of direct negotiations is likely to kick up fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its political ally, the Lebanese Shiite party Amal.

Both parties — which together form the so-called Shiite Duo, are part of a voting bloc in parliament and hold important portfolios in Lebanon’s Cabinet — are already in a war of wills with the Lebanese government, which recently declared the Iranian ambassador-designate persona non grata and ordered his departure.

Amal and Hezbollah officials told the ambassador-designate to remain in Lebanon and exhorted the government to reverse its decision. He remains at the embassy in Beirut.

McDaniel and Wilner reported from Washington and Bulos from Amman, Jordan. Times staff writer Ana Ceballos in Washington contributed to this report.

Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator in ceasefire talks between the United States, Iran and Israel, hosting negotiations in Islamabad. The announcement of the initial ceasefire by Shehbaz Sharif signaled Islamabad’s unexpected diplomatic centrality in a high stakes conflict.

This role is not incidental. It reflects Pakistan’s long standing regional ties, security concerns, and strategic positioning between major global and regional powers.

Historical Leverage with Iran
Pakistan’s mediation draws on decades of close ties with Iran, shaped by shared borders, religious linkages, and past strategic cooperation. Since 1947, both states have supported each other in regional disputes, creating a baseline of trust that allows Islamabad to act as a credible interlocutor.

Despite occasional tensions, Iran continues to view Pakistan as a state willing to engage without overt hostility, making dialogue politically feasible.

Security Driven Diplomacy
Pakistan’s involvement is rooted in hard security calculations. Instability in Iran could spill over into Balochistan, where separatist movements already challenge state authority. A fragmented Iran risks amplifying cross border militancy and separatist narratives.

Additionally, Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power makes regional de escalation a priority, as prolonged conflict increases the risk of external pressure on its own strategic assets.

Military Influence and US Access
The central role of the military, particularly Asim Munir, has strengthened Pakistan’s credibility with Donald Trump. Direct engagement between military leadership and Washington has enabled Islamabad to maintain influence within US strategic circles.

This relationship enhances Pakistan’s ability to act as a bridge, especially under an administration that values strong security partnerships.

Emerging Strategic Alignments
Pakistan’s deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and parallel coordination with the United States suggest the emergence of a loose strategic alignment. At the same time, Islamabad maintains close relations with China, which has a vested interest in Gulf stability due to energy dependence.

This dual alignment uniquely positions Pakistan as a mediator acceptable to multiple competing blocs.

Implications
Pakistan’s role signals a shift in regional diplomacy, where mid tier powers can leverage geography and relationships to shape major geopolitical outcomes. Successful mediation could elevate Pakistan’s global standing, while failure risks exposing its strategic vulnerabilities.

The talks also highlight how regional conflicts are increasingly multi layered, involving overlapping alliances and competing security priorities.

Analysis
Pakistan is not acting as a neutral peace broker but as a strategic actor pursuing its own stability. By engaging all sides, it reduces the risk of regional spillover while enhancing its diplomatic relevance.

Its ability to maintain simultaneous ties with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh and Beijing gives it rare flexibility. However, this balancing act is inherently fragile. Any perceived bias could undermine trust and derail negotiations.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s mediation reflects a broader geopolitical reality: influence in today’s conflicts belongs not only to superpowers, but to states that can navigate between them.

With information from Reuters.

US Vice President JD Vance says Lebanon is not part of the US-Iran ceasefire, stressing that neither Washington nor Israel agreed to that. After Pakistan said Lebanon was included, Israel killed hundreds of people when it carried out around 100 strikes across Lebanon in just 10 minutes.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Just under 90 minutes remained until United States President Donald Trump’s deadline to destroy Iran’s “civilisation” late on Tuesday in Washington, DC, when he took to his favourite social media platform, Truth Social, again.

He said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran after almost six weeks of bombing.

Soon after, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the ceasefire on X, giving a world on edge a chance to breathe again.

Beyond the fact of the ceasefire, much remains unclear. Trump claimed Iran would allow unimpeded transit through the Strait of Hormuz while Araghchi said passage through the waterway would need to be done under the auspices of the Iranian armed forces. Other key differences quickly emerged: Was Lebanon included in the ceasefire? Has the US agreed to allow Iran to pursue uranium enrichment? Has Trump agreed to a 10-point Iranian list of demands or accepted that merely as a conversation starter?

But there also was a common glue that bound both Trump’s statement and Araghchi’s assertions: acknowledgement of Pakistan’s central role as the mediator that managed to persuade warring nations deeply distrustful of each other back to the negotiating table.

Trump said he agreed to the ceasefire “based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan”, adding that they had “requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran”.

Araghchi was even more profuse in his praise for Pakistan. “On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for his dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region,” he said in a statement, adding that Iran had accepted the ceasefire “in response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif”.

Sharif, who had publicly called on the US and Iran to accept a ceasefire a short time before, posted again 90 minutes later, highlighting what may be Pakistan’s most significant diplomatic achievement in years.

“With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote, inviting both delegations to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes”.

By Wednesday afternoon, Sharif had spoken directly with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian too. Formal talks were expected to begin in Islamabad on Friday with a US delegation that could potentially be led by Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had previously been engaged in dialogue with Iran before the war.

The war, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and struck Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, has killed more than 2,000 people in Iran in five weeks, disrupted roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supplies and threatened to draw in regional powers.

That it has been paused, even temporarily, is the result of weeks of painstaking diplomacy that few believed Pakistan could deliver.

Early moves and a balancing act

Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement began almost immediately after the first US-Israeli attacks of the war, largely behind the scenes.

When the first strikes hit Tehran, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also deputy prime minister, was in Saudi Arabia, attending a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Within hours, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, and Dar called Araghchi to convey solidarity.

By March 3, Dar was addressing the country’s Senate, outlining Pakistan’s position. “Pakistan is ready to facilitate dialogue between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad,” he told lawmakers.

At home, meanwhile, protests erupted. In Karachi, demonstrators tried to storm the US consulate on March 1, leaving at least 10 people dead.

Pakistan’s Shia Muslim population, estimated at 15 to 20 percent of the country’s roughly 250 million people, was watching closely. As sectarian tensions rose, Munir summoned Shia clerics to Rawalpindi and warned that violence inside Pakistan would not be tolerated.

At the same time, Islamabad was dealing with multiple pressures. It remained engaged in what officials described as an “open war” against the Afghan Taliban. It was also grappling with rising fuel costs due to disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over remittances from Pakistani workers in Gulf states.

On March 12, Sharif travelled to Jeddah with Munir to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expressing “full solidarity” while urging restraint against mounting Iranian attacks against Gulf countries.

It was a delicate balancing act. Pakistan had to maintain its mutual defence pact with Riyadh, signed in September, without being drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran, its southwesterly neighbour with which it shares a nearly 1,000km (620-mile) border.

Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, said Pakistan’s early condemnation of the US-Israeli strikes proved crucial.

“When Pakistan condemned American strikes,” he told Al Jazeera, “that was where Pakistan won over the Iranians as well. This role as a global peacemaker is the result of personal diplomatic investment in Iran and the protection of international law.”

Masood Khan, a former Pakistan ambassador to the United Nations and the US, said regional actors were looking for “reliability, impartiality, consistency, restraint and deliverables”.

“We fit the bill and delivered on all counts,” Khan told Al Jazeera. “We did not seek strategic opportunism. We earned their trust.”

War escalates as diplomacy deepens

On the night of March 16-17, Israeli strikes killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and, since Khamenei’s death, one of the most powerful figures in Tehran.

On March 18, Israeli jets struck South Pars, the world’s largest natural gasfield, which Iran shares with Qatar and which accounts for roughly 70 percent of Iran’s domestic gas production.

The attack triggered a new wave of Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure, sending oil and gas prices soaring.

Against this backdrop, Dar arrived in Riyadh on March 18 for a meeting of 12 foreign ministers convened by Saudi Arabia.

The gathering produced a joint statement condemning Israeli actions. Turkiye and Pakistan resisted harsher language that could have undermined Islamabad’s credibility with Tehran, according to officials aware of the deliberations in Riyadh.

It was in Riyadh that a quadrilateral mechanism also took shape, bringing together Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt.

Betul Dogan-Akkas, assistant professor of international relations at Ankara University, said the format emerged partly from divisions within Gulf diplomacy. While some Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, were by late March increasingly losing patience with Iran’s attacks and raising the prospects of hitting back, others, while also upset with Iran, were still pushing for de-escalation.

“The intra-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] disagreements over a ceasefire and a diplomatic dialogue with Iran created the need for exactly that kind of actor,” Dogan-Akkas told Al Jazeera, adding that Pakistan’s ties with both sides made it a natural choice for a mediator.

From March 22 to 23, officials confirmed that Munir spoke directly to Trump. The US president had already announced a five-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure by then, signalling he was open to a diplomatic exit.

On March 23, Pakistan formally offered to host talks. Sharif echoed the offer publicly hours later on X, tagging Trump, Araghchi and Witkoff.

Initial reactions were mixed. Reports suggested talks could take place in Islamabad within days with Vance, Witkoff and Kushner named as possible members of a US delegation.

Iran, however, denied that negotiations were under way while the White House sought to dampen speculation. “The US will not negotiate through the press,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said.

On March 26, Dar confirmed that the US had shared a 15-point proposal with Iran via Pakistan. It demanded commitments on Iran’s nuclear programme, limits on its ballistic missiles and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran rejected the proposal and responded with a 10-point counteroffer, demanding an end to hostilities, sanctions relief, reparations, recognition of its sovereignty over the strait and the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

The positions remained far apart. But the fact that both proposals passed through Islamabad underscored Pakistan’s central role.

On March 29, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt reconvened in Islamabad. Before the meeting, Sharif held a lengthy call with Pezeshkian, his second in five days.

After the talks, Dar travelled to Beijing, reflecting China’s growing involvement. He met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the two sides outlined a five-point initiative that included a ceasefire, early dialogue, civilian protection, restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a larger UN role. On Tuesday, Trump confirmed that China appeared to have played a role in pushing Iran towards talks.

Some critics have described Pakistan’s role as that of a messenger, but Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor emeritus of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, rejected that notion.

“A messenger transmits, but Pakistan shaped the sequencing, timing and framing of proposals,” he told Al Jazeera. “It had leverage with all sides.”

Dogan-Akkas said Tehran’s choice of Pakistan as mediator was deliberate.

“I believe it is a strategic choice to not project a powerful middle power with a US military base as the mediator but to have another regional country convey the message,” she said.

The Munir factor

Central to Pakistan’s role was its army chief, Munir.

His relationship with Trump dates back to early last year when Pakistan arrested the alleged perpetrator of the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul in 2021, which occurred as thousands of Afghans tried to flee after the Taliban takeover. Thirteen American service members were killed in that attack.

But their relationship truly took root after the brief conflict between Pakistan and India in May when Trump publicly claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire, a claim acknowledged by Pakistan but rejected by India.

That episode opened a direct channel between Munir and the White House. He has since visited Washington, DC, twice, and Trump has publicly praised him on several occasions.

Pakistan also maintained connections with figures close to the Trump administration, including through business engagements involving Witkoff’s family.

Trump himself acknowledged Pakistan’s ties with Iran, telling reporters that Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most,” after hosting Munir for an unprecedented lunch in June.

However, Ahmad cautioned against overstating the personal dimension.

“The personal equation helped accelerate decision-making at a critical moment, but the mediation was not built on personalities alone,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It rested on institutional alignment between Pakistan’s civil and military leadership and on sustained engagement with Washington over the past year. Even if personalities shift, the channel Pakistan has built is now institutionalised,” he said.

Cheema argued that the calculus was also structural.

“Trump understands that in the entire Muslim world, this is the only nuclear-capable country, and it can change the course of history,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to Pakistan.

Countdown to a ceasefire

It was on Sunday on the Christian holiday of Easter when tensions peaked. As Pope Leo XIV called for peace from the Vatican, Trump issued a stark warning on Truth Social.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he wrote, threatening to blow up all of Iran’s bridges and power facilities if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran dismissed the remarks, but behind the scenes, Pakistani officials intensified their diplomatic efforts.

By Monday, Pakistan had put forward a two-phase ceasefire proposal with Munir in contact with Vance, Witkoff and Araghchi.

Trump initially rejected the plan. He set a final deadline of 8pm Washington, DC, time on Tuesday (midnight GMT) and, hours before it expired, warned of catastrophic consequences.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he posted. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

According to officials, Munir continued engaging both sides in the final hours, even as much of the diplomacy remained out of public view, until Sharif’s public appeal came with about five hours remaining.

The breakthrough followed shortly after.

As Trump announced the ceasefire and Iran confirmed it, the immediate impact was visible.

Oil prices dropped by 16 percent. The Strait of Hormuz was set to reopen for the first time in five weeks. And Islamabad was ready to become the centre of diplomatic activity.

What comes next?

The temporary ceasefire is not a peace deal. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described it as a victory while warning that “our hands are on the trigger.”

Key differences remained unresolved, and expectations for the upcoming talks are cautious.

Despite Sharif’s claim that Lebanon was included, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the arrangement does not cover Lebanon, and Israeli attacks there on Wednesday killed dozens of people and wounded hundreds.

Still, analysts said Pakistan’s role marks a significant shift.

A country that was not at the table for talks that resulted in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or the Abraham Accords has now positioned itself at the centre of a major diplomatic effort.

“This is the first time Pakistan has simultaneously managed active conflict mediation between two adversaries under ongoing military escalation without direct contact between them,” Ahmad said.

Dogan-Akkas offered a more cautious assessment, noting that Pakistan does not have a long history of mediation compared with countries such as Kuwait, Oman or Qatar.

The outcome, she said, reflects Pakistan’s ties in the Gulf and its improving relationship with Washington rather than a deeply institutionalised mediation role.

When Pakistan quietly facilitated US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing in 1971, its role remained unacknowledged for years.

This time, recognition came almost immediately, from both Washington and Tehran.

“Our effort this year is a continuation of the facilitation we undertook between the US and Iran in 2025,” Khan, the former envoy, said.

“But the stakes this time were very high. We did not want to see the richest bloc of the Muslim world decimated nor the world pushed towards a wider war.”

He added a note of caution.

“No relationships are, however, assured in perpetuity. Look at the Trump-Modi bonhomie in the first Trump administration and its unravelling now,” he said, referring to the warm friendship between the US president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which appears to have cooled during Trump’s second term.

Even so, he argued, Pakistan has already secured a lasting gain.

“While ultimate success will depend on the outcome of the process, however, even at this preliminary stage, Pakistan has already carved a niche for itself in diplomatic chronicles,” Khan said.

Tehran says the negotiations will be based on its 10-point proposal, which calls for control over Strait of Hormuz and lifting of all sanctions.

Iran has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with the United States, with its National Security Council saying talks with Washington will begin in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Friday, based on Tehran’s 10-point proposal.

The statement on Wednesday came after US President Donald Trump said he was calling off a threat to end Iranian civilisation and “suspend” attacks on the country for two weeks.

Trump said the truce was contingent on Iran agreeing to the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which a fifth of the global oil supply passes.

Iran’s partial blockade of the strait – imposed in the aftermath of the US and Israel’s attacks on February 28 – has disrupted global trade, driving up oil prices and causing fuel shortages across the world.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks have also reverberated across the Gulf and drawn in Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, both of which have launched attacks on Israel, significantly widening the conflict.

Trump said in his Truth Social statement that the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, “and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate”.

He said the US and Iran have agreed on “almost all of the various points of contention” and that the two-week period will allow the agreement to be “finalised and consummated”.

Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, speaking on behalf of the Iranian National Security Council, confirmed Tehran’s decision to halt the fighting.

“If attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces will cease their defensive operations,” he said in a post on X.

Araghchi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces, and that the decision was taken in light of Trump’s acceptance “of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations”.

For his part, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the warring sides had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere”.

The move is “EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY”, he wrote on X.

Sharif thanked the US and Iran and extended an invitation to “their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes”.

According to Iran’s National Security Council, its 10-point proposal calls for Iranian dominance and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, which it said would grant it a “unique economic and geopolitical position”.

The proposal also calls for the withdrawal of all “US combat forces” from bases in the Middle East and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups across the region. It goes on to demand “full compensation” for war damages, as well as the lifting of all sanctions by the US, the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The proposal also calls for the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and the ratification of any final agreement in a binding UN Security Council resolution.

The council said that while Tehran has agreed to talks, it does so “with complete distrust of the American side”.

It said Iran will allocate two weeks for these negotiations and that the time period “can be extended by agreement of the parties”.

The council added that Iran stood ready to respond with “full force” as soon as “the slightest mistake by the enemy is made”.

There has been no comment from Israel.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israeli war on Iran are ‘progressing steadily’ as he urged US President Donald Trump to postpone his threatened deadline for two weeks. Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid explains Islamabad’s ‘last-ditch effort’.

Kabul’s foreign minister expresses hope that minor interpretations will not hinder progress.

Afghanistan has said that peace talks with Pakistan being held in China have been “useful”.

The comment was issued by the foreign ministry in Kabul amid talks aimed at halting cross-border fighting between the two neighbours, which were launched last week following an invitation by China.

The peace process in the western Chinese city of Urumqi is an effort to stop the conflict that began in February, which has seen hundreds killed and perturbed Beijing, which is sensitive to the violence close to its western regions.

Pakistan, which declared it was in “open war” with its neighbour, has carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan, including in the capital, Kabul.

The United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Afghanistan posted on X on Tuesday that the conflict had displaced 94,000 people overall, while 100,000 people in two Afghan districts near the border have been completely cut off by the fighting since February.

The conflict has alarmed the international community, particularly as the area is one where other armed groups, including al-Qaeda and the ISIL (ISIS) group, still have a presence.

Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesman Zia Ahmad Takal said Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met China’s ambassador to Afghanistan on Tuesday, and thanked Beijing for arranging and hosting the talks, while also crediting Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates for their mediation efforts.

“Noting that constructive discussions have taken place so far, FM Muttaqi expressed hope that minor interpretations would not hinder the progress of the negotiations,” Takal wrote.

Separately, Muttaqi said that “useful discussions have taken place”.

There have been few official statements regarding the discussions since they began on April 1 between mid-level delegations from the two sides.

Accusations

Even as the talks have been taking place, Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of carrying out shelling across its border on several occasions, killing and wounding civilians.

Pakistan has not commented. Islamabad often accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven to armed groups that carry out attacks, especially the Pakistan Taliban, known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP.

The group is separate from but allied with the Afghan Taliban, which took over Afghanistan in 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of US-led troops. Kabul denies the charge.

The recent fighting, the most severe between the two neighbours, began after Pakistan carried out air strikes aimed at such groups. Afghanistan then launched cross-border attacks in response.

The clashes disrupted a ceasefire brokered by Qatar in October, after earlier fighting had killed dozens of soldiers, civilians, and suspected fighters.

On March 17, a Pakistani air strike hit a drug-treatment centre in Kabul, which Afghan officials claimed killed more than 400 people.

Pakistan denied it had targeted civilians, saying its strikes were against military facilities.

Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to end the war as the United States and Israel intensify their attacks on Tehran and a deadline looms that was set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, whose near-closure has triggered a global energy crisis.

At the White House on Monday, Trump called the 10-point plan a “significant step” but “not good enough”.

Iran’s top university and a major petrochemical plant were hit on Monday after Trump threatened to target power plants and bridges until Tehran agreed to end the war and open the strait, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass.

Here is more about Iran’s 10-point plan and Trump’s response to it:

What is Iran’s 10-point plan?

On Monday, Pakistan, which has mediated talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war, put forth a 45-day ceasefire proposal after separate meetings with US and Iranian officials. The Iranian and US negotiators have not met face to face about the 45‑day truce plan. In late March, Trump told reporters that his envoys were talking to a senior Iranian official, but this was not confirmed by Iran. Tehran has denied holding talks with US negotiators.

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said Tehran had conveyed its response via Islamabad. Iran reportedly rejected the proposed ceasefire, putting forward instead a call for a permanent end to the hostilities.

The Iranian proposal consisted of 10 clauses, including an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and reconstruction, IRNA reported. The conflict has spread to the Gulf region and Lebanon, where 1.2 million Lebanese people have been displaced due to Israeli attacks.

Details about the 10 clauses have not been published.

How did the White House respond?

Speaking to reporters about Iran’s plan, Trump said: “They made a … significant proposal. Not good enough, but they have made a very significant step. We will see what happens.”

“If they don’t make a deal, they will have no bridges and no power plants,” he added.

In a profane Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump threatened to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****** Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.

The deadline is set for 8pm Washington time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT). Tehran has rejected this ultimatum and threatened to retaliate.

Human rights organisations and members of the US Congress have criticised Trump for threatening to attack civilian targets, which is considered a war crime.

The Axios news website reported that an unnamed US official who saw the Iranian response called it “maximalist”.

What other proposals have been on the table?

The last time the word “maximalist” was used to describe a peace plan in this war was late last month when Iran called a US plan “maximalist”.

An unnamed, high-ranking diplomatic source told Al Jazeera on March 25 that Iran had received a 15-point plan drafted by the US. The plan was delivered to Iran through Pakistan.

The source said Tehran described the US proposal as “extremely maximalist and unreasonable”.

“It is not beautiful, even on paper,” the source said, calling the plan deceptive and misleading in its presentation.

The 15-point plan included a 30-day ceasefire, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities, limits on Iran’s missiles and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In return, the US would remove all sanctions imposed on Iran and provide support for electricity generation at Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, arguing it would give the US and Israel time to regroup and launch further attacks. Tehran has pointed to Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June. The US joined that conflict for one day, hitting Iran’s three main nuclear sites with air strikes. Trump claimed at the time that the US had destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities but months later justified the current war by saying Iran posed an imminent threat.

The UN nuclear watchdog, however, said Iran was not in a position to make a nuclear bomb.

The US and Israel launched the war on February 28 as Washington was holding negotiations with Iran. On the eve of the war, Oman, the mediator of the talks, had said a deal was “within reach”.

Tehran has said for years that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes and it does not intend to create nuclear weapons. It even signed a deal with the US in 2015 to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. But Trump withdrew from the landmark deal in 2018 and slapped sanctions back on Iran.

In response, Iran decided to enrich uranium from 3.6 percent, which was allowed under the 2015 deal, to almost 60 percent after its Natanz nuclear facility was bombed in 2021. Iran blamed Israel. A 90 percent level of purity is required to make an atomic bomb.

Why does this matter?

With Tuesday’s deadline fast approaching, chances for a ceasefire appear remote as the two sides remain far from agreement and the conflict is now in its second month.

On Tuesday, Reza Amiri Moghadam, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, posted on X: “Pakistan positive and productive endeavours in Good Will and Good Office to stop the war is approaching a critical, sensitive stage …”

“Stay Tuned for more”.

Pakistan has proposed a two-stage plan to end the US-Israel war on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides now mulling the framework, a source has told the Reuters news agency.

Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Monday acknowledged diplomatic efforts by Pakistan, which has shared a plan with Iran and the United States to end hostilities, according to Reuters.

Baghaei added that Iran is focused on its security amid the latest attacks from the US and Israel.

A top university in Tehran and the South Pars Petrochemical Plant in Asaluyeh were bombed on Monday, killing at least 34 people in Iran.

Axios first reported on Sunday that the US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a “two-phased deal” that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing US, Israeli and regional sources.

The source told Reuters that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact “all night long” with US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, adding the initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, the sole communication channel in the talks.

Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 days given to finalise a broader settlement.

The deal, tentatively dubbed the “Islamabad Accord”, would include a regional framework for the strait, with final in-person talks in the capital of Pakistan.

The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, the source said.

‘No reopening of Hormuz’

Tehran has responded by stating that it will not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, adding that it will not accept deadlines as it reviews the proposal. Washington also lacks the readiness for a permanent ceasefire, the official said.

The US has not yet responded to Pakistan’s plan.

“Pakistan officials tell me that Islamabad is involved in ‘frantic diplomacy’, as they put it,” said Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid.

“The problem they’re facing, as one official put it, is essentially that it’s a schoolboy brawl that they are dealing with. It is egos that they have to manage, and it is also a sea of distrust over which they have to build bridges.”

One source told Javaid that Pakistan is speaking to Iran’s clergy, diplomats, and military commanders, but the level of distrust is still high.

“You heard the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman mention that they have come under attack multiple times by the US and Israel. And then, if there is some sort of rapprochement, if there is some sort of agreement, what are the guarantees that their leaders are not going to be targeted?” said Javaid.

US’s 15-point plan ‘illogical’, says Tehran

Baghaei, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said on Monday that Tehran would never accept a 15-point plan put forward by the US last month. He stated that Tehran had finalised its demands amid recent proposals to end the war, but would reveal them only when appropriate.

He stressed that Iran would not bow to pressure, the IRNA news agency reported.

“A few days ago, they put forward proposals through intermediaries, and the 15-point US plan was reflected through Pakistan and some other friendly countries,” Baghaei said. “Such proposals are both extremely ambitious, unusual, and illogical.”

Baghaei underlined that Iran has its own framework.

“Based on our own interests, based on our own considerations, we codified the set of demands that we had and have,” he said.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman also rejected the idea that engaging with mediators signals weakness.

The latest diplomatic push by Pakistan comes amid escalating hostilities that have raised concerns over disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fuel supplies. More than 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes through the waterway, which remains under a de facto Iranian blockade.

Trump, in an expletive-laden post on Sunday, threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday that would reopen the strait.

More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran since the war began on February 28, according to Iranian authorities.

Israel has also invaded southern Lebanon and struck Beirut, where Lebanese authorities say 1,461 people, including at least 124 children, have been killed. More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced.

Soon after the war between the US, Israel and Iran began, its ripple effects were evident.

Pakistan stands out as one of the countries paying a heavy price.

It’s heavily dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf.

And with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the government increased the fuel price twice in a month.

The increases triggered mass protests, with people furious at the government’s decision to pass on the burden of higher costs.

Why is Pakistan more vulnerable to the current crisis than other countries?

Presenter: Rishaad Salamat

Guests:

Kaiser Bengali – Economist and former head of the Chief Minister’s Policy Reform Unit for Balochistan

Michael Kugelman – Senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council

Ali Salman – Founder and CEO of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy

Islamabad, Pakistan – At the start of this year, Pakistan had more imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it could use. Demand had been falling for three straight years, from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025, as cheap solar panels flooded the market and factories cut back.

The government quietly sold excess gas shipments to other countries and shut down domestic gas wells to prevent pipelines from bursting under the pressure of oversupply. Gas that could not be diverted would be pushed into household networks at a financial loss, adding billions to an already crippling debt pile in the energy sector.

Then the war came. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched hundreds of strikes against Iran in an operation named Epic Fury. The strikes targeted Iranian missiles, air defences, military infrastructure and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening assault.

Iran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones across the region, and as a result, traffic passing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, almost came to a halt.

The energy consequences were immediate. As a part of its retaliation against US-Israeli attacks, on March 2, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s gas facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export complex.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the United States, halted all production and declared force majeure, a legal term meaning it was released from delivery obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.

The conflict escalated further on March 18, when Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, off Iran’s southern coast.

South Pars and Qatar’s North Field sit above the same underground reservoir, meaning the attack threatened both countries’ gas production simultaneously. Iran struck Ras Laffan again in retaliation.

QatarEnergy said that the hit had forced it to cut LNG production by 17 percent, with repairs expected to take up to five years.

Brent crude, the industry benchmark, was priced at more than $109 a barrel on Thursday,

Oil prices on Thursday climbed to $109 a barrel, while European gas prices jumped 6 percent in a single trading session.

For Pakistan, which secures nearly all its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and holds no emergency reserves, the shift from surplus to shortage happened almost overnight.

A system built on imports

Pakistan meets its daily gas needs from three main sources. The bulk, about 2,700 million cubic feet per day, comes from domestic gas fields that have been in slow decline for years.

The rest comes from imported LNG, supplied by Qatar under long-term contracts, adding roughly 600 million cubic feet per day when shipments flow normally.

The third source is bottled LPG, used mainly by households in rural areas not connected to the pipeline network. Pakistan gets more than 60 percent of its LPG from Iran, a supply also disrupted by the conflict.

Pakistan began importing LNG in 2015 when domestic production could no longer meet demand. Today, imported LNG powers roughly a quarter of the country’s electricity, with the power sector its largest consumer.

Qatar and the UAE together account for 99 percent of Pakistan’s LNG imports, according to energy analytics firm Kpler.

Of that, Pakistan’s LNG supply is dominated by two long-term government-to-government agreements with Qatar, one spanning 15 years and the other 10. Together, they cover nine shipments a month.

From glut to scarcity

Monthly cargo data from Pakistan’s energy regulator, OGRA, reflects the impact of the war. The country received between eight and 12 LNG shipments a month through 2025 and into early 2026, with 12 arriving in January alone. In March, the month the war began, only two shipments arrived.

Prices have been affected too. According to data compiled by researcher Manzoor Ahmed of the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), on February 13, state-owned entities Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited procured eight combined cargoes at an average cost of $10.47 per MMBtu, totalling $257.1m.

MMBtu is the standard international unit used to measure and price natural gas and LNG.

By March 12, the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu, a 19 percent increase in a month, reflecting tightening global conditions even before the war’s full impact.

Pakistan had already been consuming less gas. Its share of Asian LNG markets fell from roughly 30 percent in 2020 to about 18 percent in 2025, driven largely by the rapid expansion of solar power. Millions of Pakistanis, frustrated by high electricity costs and frequent blackouts, have installed rooftop panels in recent years.

By 2025, the country had 34 gigawatts of solar capacity, with an estimated 25 gigawatts feeding into the national grid. Overall electricity demand from the grid fell nearly 11 percent between 2022 and 2025.

Gas-fired power plants built to run on imported LNG were left underutilised, especially during daylight hours.

“Of course, solarisation helps manage daytime demand, reducing the need for running thermal power plants,” said Haneea Isaad, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), who has tracked Pakistan’s gas sector for years.

But the contracts with overseas gas suppliers still needed to be adhered to — so Pakistan kept buying and paying, she told Al Jazeera.

Ahmed of PRIED pointed to two compounding challenges. First, the nature of Pakistan’s gas supply contracts were such that the government had to “buy LNG even when demand collapsed,” he told Al Jazeera.

Second, “rapid solar growth and suppressed grid demand were underestimated, and their effect on overall planning was not accounted for,” the Islamabad-based analyst added.

LNG consumption dropped by 1.21 million tonnes in 2025 alone. With no large storage capacity, surplus gas was pushed into domestic pipelines at a loss.

The resulting circular debt in the gas sector now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees, approximately $11bn. By January, Islamabad was negotiating to offload 177 unwanted gas shipments projected through 2031, a liability of $5.6bn.

Isaad of IEEFA said the surplus was predictable.

“Pakistan’s energy planning has mostly been bound by long-term contracts with very little flexibility,” she said. Once considered necessary for energy security, these rigid contracts, she added, have become a financial albatross in a market increasingly prioritising flexibility and low-cost generation.

She described the government’s pre-war response, diverting excess cargoes, as “reactive crisis management” that prioritised short-term fixes over better forecasting and procurement flexibility.

Supply shock

Qatar’s LNG shipments to Pakistan have stopped almost completely since March 2. Of the eight shipments scheduled that month, only two arrived. The six expected in April are unlikely to reach the country.

At a public hearing of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Central Power Purchasing Agency chief executive Rehan Akhtar said LNG supplies were under force majeure, though coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia remained unaffected.

Officials have warned of near-zero LNG availability in the coming months, even if the war ends quickly. LNG accounts for more than 21 percent of Pakistan’s power generation.

“With Pakistan’s LNG supply completely halted after Qatar’s declaration of force majeure, LNG plants are effectively out of the running order,” Isaad said.

The government has responded by restoring domestic gas production that had been deliberately curtailed during the surplus period.

Isaad said Pakistan had been holding back roughly 350 to 400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas to accommodate LNG imports.

“There will also be the option to rely on other power generation sources such as imported coal and hydropower,” she added. But, she warned, “even with hydropower, imported coal and restored domestic gas production covering some of the gaps left by LNG, there might still be an energy shortage.”

For now, mild weather and increased solar output have provided temporary relief.

“So far, Pakistan has somehow miraculously survived any prolonged energy shortages in the power sector through a combination of mild weather and a pre-existing reduced reliance on imported LNG,” Isaad said. “But peak summer months may be a different story.”

Summer pressure

With an energy crisis looming, Pakistan is bracing for a few hours of daily planned power cuts this summer, alongside other energy conservation measures and higher electricity costs.

According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s State of Industry Report 2025, peak electricity demand last summer exceeded 33,000 megawatts.

Winter demand currently stands at about 15,000 megawatts, partly because solar panels now generate between 9,000 and 10,000 megawatts daily, reducing reliance on the grid.

Furnace oil, the main backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit, about $0.12, and its price has more than doubled since the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Analysts say the burden will fall unevenly. Consumers reliant on grid electricity will face both higher bills and outages, while industries dependent on gas will see production disruptions. Those with rooftop solar and battery storage will be best insulated.

Isaad is blunt about the options before Pakistan. “Returning to the spot market might not be feasible, given the dire financial consequences,” she said. “Even if it does, competition with wealthier nations may once again price Pakistan out. Furnace oil could be another option, but that will be prohibitively expensive to run.

“The only option the government may be left with is load-shedding [planned power blackouts], probably around two to three hours daily.”

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan intends to continue to nudge the United States and Iran towards negotiations aimed at ending their war, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledges “obstacles” in its efforts.

Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi did not specify the roadblocks on the path to peace that he was referring to. But his comments, made during a weekly media briefing in Islamabad, came hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if it did not accept Washington’s terms for a peace deal.

Pakistan has been leading a multination effort to facilitate negotiations between the US and Iran.

“Despite challenges and obstacles, Pakistan will continue its efforts to promote facilitation and dialogue,” Andrabi said. He added that Islamabad was working to create conditions for “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He said the US and Iran had confidence in Pakistan’s role as a neutral intermediary.

In a sign of that confidence, Iran has allowed 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Andrabi called it “a harbinger of peace” and a positive step for regional stability.

He did not confirm whether any Pakistani ship had so far sailed through the strait.

The Hormuz route has been largely blocked since Iran began restricting oil and gas shipments following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28. The disruption has driven up energy prices and triggered widespread economic strain.

Andrabi also pointed to sustained high-level contact between Islamabad and Tehran. He cited a March 28 call in which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stressing the need to “build trust in order to facilitate talks and mediation” and praising Pakistan for its “supportive role for peace”.

Regional diplomacy

The briefing came just a day after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from Beijing, where he met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The visit produced a joint five-point initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation, and the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Andrabi said the Chinese-Pakistani plan had since been shared with Iran, the US and other stakeholders, receiving appreciation “across the region and beyond”.

He added that the proposals were consistent with the outcome of the four-nation ministerial meeting held in Islamabad the previous weekend — the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt joined Dar for those talks.

Dar travelled to Beijing despite medical advice to rest after sustaining a hairline fracture during the Islamabad talks, a move Andrabi said reflected the importance Pakistan places on its ties with China. “The Chinese side expressed deep appreciation, conveying that China and Pakistan are strategic cooperative partners,” he said.

The Islamabad meeting between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt was the second such gathering in a coordinated regional push to de-escalate tensions. The first was held in Riyadh on March 19.

Following those talks, Dar said Pakistan was prepared to host direct US-Iran negotiations “in the coming days”.

“Pakistan will be honoured to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides for a comprehensive and lasting settlement,” he said on March 30.

At Thursday’s briefing, Andrabi reiterated that offer, confirming Pakistan had formally “offered to host and facilitate negotiations as part of its broader diplomatic outreach”.

He said the next phase of efforts would focus on securing “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He appeared to acknowledge that Iran — which has so far denied any direct negotiations with the US and has insisted that the mediation is limited to messages being passed between Tehran and Washington by Islamabad — was not fully on board with the efforts to push the warring nations towards talks.

“Iran, as a sovereign country, determines its own policies,” Andrabi said.

Afghanistan breakthrough?

Separately, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed sending a delegation of senior officials to the northwestern Chinese city of Urumqi for talks with Afghanistan. It is the first substantive contact since Islamabad launched cross-border strikes in late February.

The Urumqi meeting on Wednesday focused on exchanging views on the current escalation, Andrabi said.

“Our participation is a reiteration of our core concerns,” he said. “The burden of real process, however, lies with Afghanistan, which must demonstrate visible and verifiable actions against terrorist groups using Afghan soil against Pakistan.”

Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq on the night of February 26, targeting what it described as sanctuaries of “terrorists” in Afghanistan, following what it called unprovoked fire from across the border by Afghan Taliban forces.

After a five-day pause from March 18 to 23 for Eid-ul-Fitr, partly in response to de-escalation requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye, Andrabi confirmed the operation was continuing.

“There has been no change in Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, and operations are continuing,” he said.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban administration in Kabul of enabling groups such as Pakistan Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, which have repeatedly launched deadly attacks inside Pakistan, to operate from Afghan soil. Kabul denies those allegations.

Islamabad says its concerns remain unaddressed, and violence has surged since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

China has also played a role in facilitating engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including meetings in Beijing in May and in Kabul in August.

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India – Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year.

Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab’s Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices.

Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha’s wedding.

“I don’t know if we can afford it this year,” he says. “Everything depends on the crop.”

The uncertainty has crept in quietly.

Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain.

“If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” he says. “Maybe delay the wedding. If things get worse … even children’s education becomes difficult.”

School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha’s future wedding.

It’s never easily affordable, even in good times. “We somehow manage,” Kumar says. “But if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay.”

For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran – unfolding thousands of kilometres away – is not just a matter of distant geopolitics.

It is shaping decisions inside their homes.

A distant crisis with local consequences

At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India’s northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets.

About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.

Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply.

Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices.

The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away.

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers – which can hugely boost crop yields – has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region.

The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal.

The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates.

In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector.

The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30–35 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz.

In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan’s fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere – even at home – is on the rise.

In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country’s farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings.

Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh’s imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Livelihoods at stake

Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf – let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz – can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure – for now.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: “Adequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season…The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports… Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded… Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming…”

He added: “Under the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel… I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers.”

On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions.

In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions.

“We hear about war, about shipping problems,” he tells Al Jazeera. “Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.”

Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge.

“If we use less, production will fall,” he says. “But sometimes we have no choice.”

In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle.

“If fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here,” he says.

Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region’s peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop.

According to a statement by Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices.

However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs.

For farmers, even small increases matter

“We already have loans and expenses,” Ahmad says. “If costs go up, we feel it immediately.”

In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable.

“Sometimes it is available, sometimes not,” he says. “And when it comes, the price is higher.”

Meanwhile, in Nepal’s Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear.

“If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,” he says. “If it becomes expensive, we reduce use.”

Bangladesh’s Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is “closely monitoring the situation” and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months.

The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term.

There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says.

Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice.

However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis.

“We have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation,” he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries.

“Authorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers,” he said.

No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves.

Rising food prices on the horizon

The implications extend beyond individual farmers.

Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields – and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.

For governments, the challenge is complex.

In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances.

In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments – but he is walking a tightrope.

He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields.

“It is a risk,” he says. “But what choice do we have?”

Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home.

“School fees have to be paid,” he says. “Household expenses cannot stop.” He looks across his field.

“And the wedding… we will see.”

Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household.

Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding.

In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply.

For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear.

“For others, this is about war,” he says. “For us, it is about whether we can take care of our family.”

A Lahore court has ruled in favour of Pakistani singer Ali Zafar in his defamation case against fellow singer Meesha Shafi. On Tuesday, the court ordered Shafi to pay Zafar 5 million rupees ($17,900) in damages.

Zafar sued Shafi for defamation in 2018 after she accused him of sexual harassment in Pakistan’s highest-profile #MeToo case.

What has the court ruled?

The court’s ruling, which has not been released to the public but has been seen by several Pakistani media outlets, states that a 2018 social media post by Shafi and an interview she gave to a lifestyle magazine contained “false, defamatory and injurious imputations” against the plaintiff, Zafar.

The court found that her allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature had not been proved to be true or shown to be made for the public good, and therefore constituted actionable defamation, according to Pakistan’s leading daily newspaper, Dawn.

The court added that Shafi was to be “permanently restrained from repeating, publishing, or causing to be published, directly or indirectly, the aforesaid defamatory allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature against the plaintiff, in any form of media”.

This order will be appealed to the High Court, Nighat Dad, the lawyer who represented Shafi in court, told Al Jazeera.

As well as a member of Shafi’s legal team, Dad is the executive director of a nongovernmental, research-based advocacy organisation, the Digital Rights Foundation.

She said: “The appeal is likely to challenge the judgement on several grounds: that the trial court misread and selectively interpreted the evidence, failed to properly consider material evidence presented by Meesha, and overlooked the legal context, particularly that her sexual harassment complaint against Ali Zafar is still pending before the Supreme Court.”

What was the #MeToo case involving Shafi and Zafar?

In April 2018, Shafi, now 44, posted a statement through a series of posts on X, then called Twitter, accusing Zafar of sexually harassing her on multiple occasions.

Shafi wrote: “I have been subjected, on more than one occasion, to sexual harassment of a physical nature at the hands of a colleague from my industry: Ali Zafar.”

Shafi added that she was speaking up as an “empowered, accomplished woman who is known for speaking her mind!”

In her posts, Shafi referred to the global “#MeToo” movement by women and girls against sexual harassment and assault.

The hashtag gained worldwide prominence in 2017 when women in Hollywood and beyond began speaking out in the wake of allegations against the former American film producer and now convicted sex offender, Harvey Weinstein.

Within hours of Shafi’s post, Zafar, now 45, responded on X: “I categorically deny any and all claims of harassment lodged against me by Ms Shafi.”

He added that he intended to take the allegation to “the courts of law” and to address them legally rather than “contesting personal vendettas on social media and in turn disrespecting the movement”.

Shafi and Zafar were once known to be friends and are both prominent figures in Pakistan’s entertainment industry. Both have also made appearances in films outside Pakistan. Shafi even performed a small cameo role in 2003 in a music video for Zafar’s first album.

In April 2018, Shafi spoke about her allegations against Zafar during an interview with fashion and lifestyle magazine Instep Pakistan.

She told the magazine that she had not publicly spoken about the harassment at the time it happened because “I’m a public figure and so is he (Ali Zafar). My thought process was who I am and who he is and what that’s going to lead to. Being ready to talk was far off because it had just happened. I buried it.”

Have other women accused Zafar of inappropriate behaviour?

Yes. Several Pakistani celebrities and public figures posted in support of Shafi online after her 2018 X posts.

Additionally, other women came forward to accuse Zafar of sexual harassment.

They included makeup artist and painter Leena Ghani, who wrote in a statement on X in April 2018 that Zafar had on “several occasions” crossed the boundaries of what is considered appropriate behaviour between friends.

“Inappropriate contact, groping, sexual comments should not fall in the grey area between humour and indecency,” Ghani said.

Maham Javaid, a journalist who now works for The Washington Post, alleged in April 2018 that Zafar had tried to kiss her cousin and pull her inside a restroom in a now-deleted X post.

How has the dispute between Shafi and Zafar unfolded?

The pair have filed a slew of complaints against each other.

In June 2018, Zafar filed his one‑billion‑rupee defamation suit against Shafi. At the time, that was equivalent to more than $8m. It is now equivalent to $3.5m, due to the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee.

Shafi then filed a complaint about the alleged harassment before the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women at the Workplace, later in 2018.

Her complaint was rejected on the technical grounds that she and Zafar did not have an employer-employee relationship. An appeal is pending in the Supreme Court.

Zafar also filed a separate cybercrime complaint with the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in November 2018, alleging that Shafi and others were running a coordinated smear campaign against him on social media.

Based on this report, the FIA filed a First Information Report (FIR) against Shafi and eight others in September 2020 under Pakistan’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA).

Those named in the complaint included Ghani, Javaid, comedian Ali Gul Pir and actor Iffat Omar, who had publicly supported Shafi and posted critical comments about Zafar online. The PECA offences they were charged under – criminal defamation provisions covering “offences against dignity” – carried a maximum penalty of three years in prison.

It is not known publicly whether the FIA cybercrime case has reached a verdict.

In September 2019, Shafi filed her own two-billion-rupee civil defamation suit against Zafar in a Lahore court, accusing him of making false allegations about her in the media. Two billion rupees was worth roughly $13m when Shafi filed the suit in 2019; due to the rupee’s steep depreciation, the same amount is now worth about $7m. That case is ongoing.

What has been the response to this week’s defamation ruling?

Actor and television host Iffat Omar, who was also named in the FIA cybercrime case and was also a witness for Shafi in Zafar’s defamation case against her, criticised the court ruling in an X post on Tuesday.

Omar wrote: “People were silenced, pressured, bought, and scared. The entire support system was broken. On top of that, we were accused of running a foreign agenda, of being paid huge amounts in dollars. I said it then, and I say it again – prove it in court. I am ready to open all my bank accounts, everything.”

Last week, Saqib Jilani, another of Shafi’s lawyers, asked the Lahore court to dismiss the defamation lawsuit, arguing that Zafar had not produced any concrete evidence to support his defamation claims.

Also last week, Shafi’s mother, the Pakistani actor Saba Hameed, who has been attending court proceedings in Pakistan while her daughter lives in Canada, told reporters: “We have been fighting this for eight years, and we are not accepting defeat in this matter.”

What happens next?

Shafi’s legal team intends to appeal the defamation ruling in favour of Zafar to the High Court. “This is far from the end of the road,” Dad told Al Jazeera.

She added that other legal actions relating to this are ongoing.

“Meesha Shafi’s original complaint of sexual harassment against Ali Zafar has been pending before the Supreme Court for several years now,” Dad explained, referring to the 2018 complaint dismissed on technical grounds by the Office of the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women, but which Shafi has appealed.

“Separately, Ali Zafar initiated a criminal case alleging cyber-defamation against Meesha and her witnesses, which also reached the Supreme Court and is currently stayed.”

Dad said that Shafi’s civil defamation suit against Zafar is also still pending.

Why is this significant?

“This ruling risks setting a deeply troubling precedent,” Dad said.

Currently, she said, survivors of sexual harassment face major legal, social and reputational barriers. Decisions like the Lahore court’s recent order are likely to discourage victims of sexual harassment “from speaking out at all”.

“If defamation law is interpreted in a way that punishes speech before underlying harassment claims are even adjudicated, it shifts the burden unfairly onto survivors and reinforces silence over accountability,” Dad added.

“And that is the real danger here.”

At least 28 people are killed in Afghanistan and 17 in Pakistan after heavy rainfall causes severe flooding.

Heavy rain that has caused severe flooding and landslides has killed at least 45 people in Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past five days, authorities say.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) said on Monday that 28 people have been killed in the floods and 49 injured with more than 100 homes destroyed.

Most of the deaths in Afghanistan were reported in central and eastern provinces, including Parwan, Maidan Wardak, Daikundi and Logar, according to ANDMA.

The authority added in a statement that weather conditions remained “unstable” in parts of the country and there is a continued risk of more rain and flooding in some areas.

“In total, 1,140 families have been affected,” ANDMA said.

Police spokesperson Sediqullah Seddiqi told the AFP news agency a 14-year-old boy died after being struck by lightning in the northwestern province of Badghis.

He added that in the same province, three people had drowned while trying to gather driftwood to be used for heating.

At the same time in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which shares a border with Afghanistan, 17 people were killed and 56 wounded, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority said.

Extreme weather

Heavy rainfall has continued to sweep across Afghanistan since Thursday, causing floods and landslides in multiple provinces.

The weather prompted the closure of several highways, according to officials in central and eastern Afghanistan. Further rains and storms are forecast for Tuesday.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority has warned citizens to refrain from using “rivers and flooded streams, and follow the weather forecast seriously”.

In the central province of Daikundi, the local disaster management department said a five-year-old was killed when a roof collapsed. A woman was also killed in the same circumstances in the eastern province of Nangarhar, police spokesperson Sayed Tayeb Hamad said.

Afghanistan is vulnerable to extreme weather, particularly heavy rainfall and monsoon seasons, which trigger floods and landslides in remote areas with fragile infrastructure.

In January, flash floods and snowfall caused the deaths of at least 17 people and killed livestock.

Pakistan Super League has been jolted by the ball-tampering accusation against Zaman, which allegedly occurred on Sunday.

Lahore Qalandars batter ‌Fakhar Zaman has been charged with ball-tampering in ⁠Sunday’s Pakistan Super ⁠League (PSL) match against Karachi Kings, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) said in a statement.

The incident occurred in the ⁠final over, with Karachi needing 14 runs to win. Fakhar, Lahore captain Shaheen Afridi, and fast bowler Haris Rauf were ⁠involved in a brief discussion, during which Fakhar and Rauf passed the ball between them.

The umpire then approached Rauf and asked to see the ball. Following consultations with the square-leg umpire, the ‌officials awarded five penalty runs to Karachi and ordered the ball to be changed.

The penalty proved costly, as Karachi went on to chase down a target of 129 with three balls to spare, and Abbas Afridi hitting a four and a six to seal a four-wicket victory.

“Fakhar denied the charge ⁠levelled against him during a disciplinary hearing ⁠led by the match referee Roshan Mahanama,” the PCB said.

“Another hearing is set to take place within the next 48 hours after which the match ⁠referee will share his verdict.”

Afridi said they would look at video footage of the incident.

“I ⁠don’t know about this, and we’ll ⁠see if it’s there in the camera and discuss it,” he said at the post-match presentation ceremony.

Fakhar, 35, could face a ban of one or two matches ‌if found guilty of ball tampering for a first offence in the PSL.

Australian trio David Warner, Steve Smith and Cameron Bancroft ‌were ‌handed lengthy bans by Cricket Australia following a 2018 ball-tampering scandal in South Africa.