Oil prices

Published on 21/04/2026 – 12:14 GMT+2•Updated
12:16

Oil prices edged slightly higher, European indices traded flat, while Asian markets surged on Tuesday morning as investors monitored potential US-Iran negotiations and the final 48 hours of the current ceasefire.

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At the time of writing, US benchmark crude was up 8.5% from last Friday’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was around 9.5% higher at roughly $94.5 a barrel.

As for European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 were trading within a 0.2% range.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were all similarly trading within a 0.3% range.

On Wall Street, US futures were also all trading within a 0.3% range with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower by 0.2% on Monday at 7109 points.

Despite US representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, travelling to Islamabad as part of renewed efforts to secure an agreement, no concrete progress on US-Iran negotiations has been announced.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the current ceasefire ends on Wednesday keeping markets in a state of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that the deal currently being negotiated will be better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed by US President Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

Latest on US-Iran negotiations

Following the arrival of US representatives to Islamabad there has been no developments on the negotiations with Iran.

Even though US President Donald Trump confidently declared that there is a historic deal in the works, public statements from major Iranian figures seem to indicate otherwise.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and the person previously heading the talks with the US, made sweeping declarations via X on Monday stating that the country will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and “has prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Previously, other Iranian representatives have also described US demands as “excessive”.

For the time being, markets eagerly await developments and are highly sensitive to any headlines about the situation.

Associated British Foods and Primark demerger

Although European markets are trading flat, major news in the retail consumer sector has come out of the UK.

Associated British Foods (ABF) is poised to announce the outcome this week of a strategic review into demerging its fast-fashion retail arm Primark, from its diversified food business.

The conglomerate, controlled by the billionaire Weston family, has been working with advisers from Rothschild & Co to assess whether the split would maximise long-term shareholder value.

Analysts argue the move makes sense because of the limited operational synergies between the two divisions: the food arm generates steady cash flows from brands such as Twinings, Patak’s, Jordans cereals and Allied Bakeries, while Primark has pursued aggressive international expansion in a fiercely competitive retail sector.

The decision comes as ABF faces tough trading conditions, with the group warning in January of flat annual sales and declining profits, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, including potential increases in petrochemical prices.

He was asked if now is a good time to open an ISA or not

Martin Lewis has offered some advice on how you could organise your savings. He explained the practical tip amid the current uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the Iran conflict.

The major war has already triggered a surge in oil prices, with fears of long-term consequences for food production and global economic growth.

Mr Lewis was questioned on his BBC podcast about whether now is an opportune moment to open a stocks and shares ISA, given that markets are struggling. When share prices fall, it can present a prime opportunity to invest, as your funds could increase in value when the market bounces back. But if prices decline further, the worth of your holdings could also drop. In response, Mr Lewis outlined the general principle to bear in mind.

He said: “If you’re talking about investing for a long term money that you don’t need for five years and you’re going to do that in a nice spread of investments, like a global tracker fund or an S&P tracker or FTSE tracker, then you just have to accept that you will never know when the perfect time to put money in is.”

£1,000 savings tactic

Nevertheless, he did reveal one strategy you could use to reduce the risk posed by market volatility. Mr Lewis said: “Let’s just imagine you’re putting £10,000 in a stocks and shares ISA, and you’re putting it away for a long time.

“You could put £10,000 in now but you could arrange with the provider that it sits in its cash part. You can hold it in cash, within a stocks and shares ISA, for the moment.

“You could say I’ve got £10,000, over the next 10 months, I’d like you to buy £1,000 a month of that tracker fund that I’m putting my investment into. It’s called pound-cost averaging.

“Because you’re drip feeding the money in, that helps smooth out the short-term volatility of buying at the right moment. So if you’re worried about that volatility, you might want to adopt that tactic.”

Mr Lewis continued in saying that in reality nobody can predict the optimal time to invest. He said: “They are unknowable in the short term, but in a broad spread of investment over the long term, on the balance of probabilities, investing will outperform saving.

“So don’t let the volatility put you off, but you might want to spread the time that you’re putting the money in.”

Major changes to ISA allowances

Savers may also want to note that major changes to ISA allowances are on the horizon. Currently, you can deposit up to £20,000 each tax year, which can be divided as you wish between cash ISAs and stocks and shares ISAs.

From April 2027, you will only be permitted to save up to £12,000 as you choose. The remaining £8,000 will only be available for deposits into investment-based accounts.

Savers aged 65 and over will be exempt from the new regulations, retaining the existing £20,000 allowance. ISAs are entirely tax-free, with no tax liability on any interest earnings or investment gains within these accounts.

European stocks were mostly steady on Wednesday as investors weighed signals from Washington that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war could be imminent.

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The pan-European Stoxx 600 had ticked down 0.1%, Germany’s Dax edged 0.11% higher and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.11%. The CAC 40 in France fell by a slightly greater margin, at 0.65%.

US President Donald Trump said fresh talks between Washington and Tehran “could be happening over the next two days” in Islamabad, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough, and added that the war was “very close to over” — despite continued uncertainty over key sticking points in negotiations.

Asian markets were broadly higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7%.

The Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to its gains from the previous day, and the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is now just 0.2% below its record set in January.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2%.

On Wednesday, benchmark US crude inched up by 1 cent to $91.29 a barrel.

Brent crude added 48 cents to $95.27, or less than 1%, after falling 4.6% the previous day. While that is still above its roughly $70 level from before the war began in late February, it remains well below the peak of $119.

Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses across the economy. However, some analysts noted that the war is still ongoing, warning that the optimism may prove unfounded.

“The counterintuitive decline in crude appears driven by growing hopes that a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran could soon materialise, after the first attempt fizzled out,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

“Traders are clearly choosing to price in the possibility of de-escalation rather than the immediate reality of restricted flows,” he added.

Asian nations depend on access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is the main route for crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf to reach customers worldwide. Disruptions there have kept oil off the global market, driving up prices.

Global inflation this year is expected to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, which had previously forecast a slowdown to 3.8%.

The IMF also downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% this year, from 3.3% projected in January.

Overall, the S&P 500 rose 81.14 points to 6,967.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 455.35 points to 23,639.08.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30% late Monday.

In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.03 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro stood at $1.1780, down from $1.1797.

US stocks climbed to the brink of a record high on Tuesday, while oil prices eased as hopes grew that Washington and Tehran may resume talks to end their war.

The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, leaving it just 0.2% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2%, tracking broader global market gains.

Investors are betting that renewed diplomacy could prevent a prolonged surge in oil prices and inflation, allowing focus to return to corporate earnings.

Brent crude for June delivery fell 4.6% to $94.79, down from recent highs, though still above pre-war levels.

However, volatility remains high, with markets sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.

Trading on Tuesday began with high expectations that the Iran war is inching to a close, fuelling gains across major stock markets and pushing oil back under $100 a barrel.

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Investors remained hopeful for a lasting de-escalation of the conflict, now in its seventh week, as the US and Iran are said to be weighing a second round of talks before a temporary ceasefire agreement expires next week.

The US military on Monday began a blockade of Iranian ports as Washington steps up pressure on Tehran, following weekend ceasefire talks between the two sides that ended without agreement.

Trump also suggested on Monday that the United States is still willing to engage with Tehran.

“I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side,” he said, without elaborating further.

Oil prices continued to pull back on Tuesday from earlier gains.

Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.8% at $98.62 per barrel, nearing 8 am CET.

It reached nearly $104 early on Monday amid Iran war concerns and limited progress in weekend ceasefire talks.

Benchmark US crude fell 1.7% early Tuesday to $97.40 a barrel.

The global energy shock stemming from maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil is typically transported, has led to surging fuel prices and threatens to push up inflation in many countries and weigh on economic growth.

Stock markets are hungry for good news

Investors were quick to recover after the dismal first trading day on Monday. Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to 6,004.30.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 25,759.75, while the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,010.45.

This comes as China on Tuesday reported worse-than-expected export growth.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded its exports by 2.5% in March year on year, significantly slower than the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand.

The March data missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded in January and February.

Wall Street rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.

Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 1.9% despite the investment bank posting better-than-expected quarterly profits.

In other trading, gold and silver prices rose on Tuesday. Gold was up 0.6% at $4,796.60 (€4,219.62) an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $77.05 (€67.80) per ounce.

The US dollar fell to ¥159.08 from ¥159.45. The euro was trading at $1.1766, up from $1.1759.

Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.

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Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.

This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.

US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).

Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.

“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.

“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.

Hungarian election and the forint

The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.

The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.

Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.

Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.

Stock markets face a turbulent session

Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.

Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.

Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.

“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.

“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”

Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.

In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.

What markets are watching this week

Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.

In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.

This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.

The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.

Published on 08/04/2026 – 9:14 GMT+2•Updated
9:25

Oil prices have fallen sharply and Asian markets surged on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz but traders are cautious so far until the truce proves durable.

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Brent crude stood at $92.99 per barrel as of Wednesday morning, up 28.30% since the war began in late February but well below the peaks of recent weeks which went up to $110 per barrel.

WTI crude sat at $94.70 per barrel, still 41.30% above pre-war levels despite the ceasefire-driven selloff. Wholesale gasoline was at $2.94 per gallon, also up more than 41% since the conflict began.

The moves follow a dramatic overnight plunge after US President Donald Trump said he was holding off on threatened strikes against Iranian bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure.

Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would be open to shipping for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.

Asia surges, Europe slides

Asian markets responded with enthusiasm. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 5.0% in early Wednesday trading, South Korea’s Kospi soared 5.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.6%.

European markets told a different story. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 6.82% in early trading, reflecting the accumulated damage from weeks of war-driven volatility rather than Wednesday’s ceasefire bounce — European markets having closed before the overnight news broke.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is down by 3.81% in pre-market US trading, having swung sharply during Tuesday’s session before clawing back losses after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline and called on Iran to reopen the strait.

Cautious optimism

The ceasefire has done little to fully settle markets.

Attacks were still reported in Israel, Iran and across the Gulf region in the early hours of Wednesday, and neither side has specified when the truce formally begins.

The worry that has stalked markets since late February remains, namely that a prolonged disruption to Gulf oil flows will keep energy prices elevated long enough to push a fresh wave of inflation through the global economy — with or without a ceasefire.

A UK airline has scrapped some flights from mid-April to early June following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which has sent the price of aviation fuel soaring

A UK airline has cancelled flights due to the impact of the Iran war, while Ryanair is warning that up to 10% of services could be binned.

Aurigny of Guernsey has scrapped some flights from mid-April to early June following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which has sent the price of aviation fuel soaring, the Independent reports.

The airline, which links up the Channel Islands with the UK, described the cuts as “proactive measures to address the impact of global instability”, also adding a “temporary fuel adjustment surcharge” of £2 on all new bookings.

Demand for flights has fallen 13% in May, Aurigny has said, leading the airline to cancel some departures to and from Guernsey.

Aurigny’s chief commercial officer, Philip Saunders, told the Independent: “While a small island community, we are not immune from the realities presented by the global travel ecosystem. Current global events are impacting consumer confidence and changing travel behaviours. Furthermore, significant increases in global oil prices are now filtering through to aviation.

“Unfortunately, we have to pass on some of the resulting costs to customers to ensure sustainable air services to and from Guernsey.”

European jet fuel prices hit a record $1,900 per metric ton on Thursday, according to specialized publication Argus. It warned of potential shortfalls in the coming months.

READ MORE: Five key passport checks for Easter holidaymakers to avoid missing flightREAD MORE: Ryanair hits out at passengers wearing 1 common item on planes

Argus project that Portugal could run out of jet fuel in four months, Hungary in five, Denmark in six, Italy and Germany in seven, and France and Ireland in eight.

Last week, the chief executive of Ryanair warned that the airline may not be able to run its full summer schedule due to the cost of fuel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Michael O’Leary predicts that European airlines will begin canceling scheduled flights “by the end of April” if the key shipping lane is not opened.

“The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 30 days. If it remains closed for 60 or 90 days, then we’re all facing an unknown scenario, and we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5%–10% of flights through May, June and July,” he told ITV.

O’Leary explained that airlines won’t be able to choose which routes to cancel as cuts will depend on which airports suffer fuel shortages.

Later speaking to SkyNews, the Ryanair boss added: “Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market. We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated,” he told Sky News.

“We think there is a reasonable risk, some low level, maybe 10% to 25% of our supplies might be at risk through May and June, so like everyone else in this industry, we hope the war ends sooner rather than later.

“If the war finishes by April and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, then there is almost no risk to supply.”

Published on 06/04/2026 – 9:46 GMT+2•Updated
9:56

OPEC+ members met virtually on Sunday and afterwards announced plans to hike crude quotas by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May as the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most important route for black gold, continues to face disruptions as a result of the US-Iran conflict.

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However, the modest rise agreed by the eight key producing countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — is not likely to bring down oil prices as it represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure. Moreover, the increase is more symbolic than material as the oil can’t be exported until the Strait of Hormuz opens.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026,” the group said in a statement.

The members’ statement also noted that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement also said.

Efforts to stabilise soaring oil prices

The latest statement from OPEC+ comes as oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, with Brent and US crude nearing $120 a barrel, driving up fuel costs and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan said in a note on Thursday that oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel if supply flows remain disrupted until mid-May.

US President Donald Trump has given Iran a deadline of Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz and has vowed to hit the country’s power plants and bridges otherwise.

European markets were closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.

Published on
01/04/2026 – 9:58 GMT+2

Renewed optimism over a possible de-escalation in the Iran war, now in its fifth week, gave a strong boost to stock markets in Europe and Asia on Wednesday.

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At the time of writing, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up over 1%, while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 is around 2.5% higher.

In London, the FTSE 100 has risen roughly 0.8% with Germany’s DAX 30 and France’s CAC 40 making equal moves to the upside. Italy’s FTSE MIB has jumped the most and is 1.7% higher.

During a press gaggle at the White House on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that the country would “probably” stop attacks on Iran within two to three weeks “‘whether we have a deal or not”.

Following Trump’s comments, the front month future contracts for oil also saw a sharp decline, with Brent crude and WTI both trading around 4% lower and below $100 a barrel.

Trump also stressed that the US would “not have anything to do with” what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the relief, markets are eagerly anticipating Trump’s address to the nation about the conflict, which will occur overnight on Wednesday, according to the White House Press Secretary.

Asian markets, US futures and precious metals

Asian shares also rose sharply on Wednesday after Trump’s statement.

At the time of writing, South Korea’s Kospi has recovered losses from earlier this week, surging over 8%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 2%.

A survey by Japan’s central bank released on Wednesday showed that business sentiment among major manufacturers had improved despite concerns over the Iran war.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is also over 2% higher, while the Shanghai Composite has jumped around 1.5%. Additionally, India’s Sensex rose roughly 2%, Australia’s ASX 200 is up 1% and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed more than 4%.

“De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if it were to end soon,” said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, in a research note on Wednesday.

US futures are also all trading between 0.7% and 1.2% higher.

The move comes after US stocks recorded their strongest day in almost a year on Tuesday, when the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, its largest gain since May.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.5%, while the Nasdaq jumped 3.8%.

“It’s worth considering how markets might respond if the war were to end very soon. Do markets have further to recover if sentiment continues to improve? The answer is almost certainly yes,” Mathews added.

In other trading, gold rose is up 1.4% trading at around $4,730 while silver is down roughly 1% to $74.3 an ounce.

Investors remain wary, as the Wall Street Journal report came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran’s key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting that diplomacy was making progress.

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The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also seeking to conserve energy, with around one-fifth of global crude oil and gas passing through the waterway.

The Wall Street Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had concluded that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend beyond his four- to six-week timeline. It added that he had decided to focus on targeting Iran’s missiles and navy, before seeking to pressure the country diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Further fuelling concerns, a drone struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters, causing a fire on Tuesday morning. Dubai authorities said the blaze had already been extinguished, but concerns about a potential oil spill remain.

Maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, remain a key pressure point for global energy supplies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump has “options available” in response to Tehran’s threats to control the strait, after Iran was reported to have effectively created a “toll booth” there.

Both major oil benchmarks fell on Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude remained well above $100 a barrel. At 7 a.m. CET, the international benchmark Brent was trading at nearly $113, while WTI crude was above $102 a barrel.

Most equity markets in Asia rose briefly, but by this point Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi had fallen 3.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng had shed 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.4%.

US futures were up between 0.6% and 0.8%.

In other early Tuesday trading, gold and silver prices rose. Gold was up 0.7% at $4,587.80 an ounce, while silver climbed 2.4% to $72.25 per ounce.

The US dollar stood at 159.61 Japanese yen, down from 159.71 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1472, up from $1.1465.

Published on 30/03/2026 – 7:07 GMT+2•Updated
8:29

European markets are set to open lower on Monday, with futures pointing to declines across major indices as investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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As of early morning trading, Germany’s DAX was down around 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell roughly 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 was also in negative territory, according to IG data.

The weaker outlook follows losses in Asia, where shares mostly dipped overnight as concerns persisted around soaring oil prices and the potential for further escalation in the US war with Iran.

The declines follow steep losses on Wall Street on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive losing week — the longest such streak in nearly four years.

“US equity markets remained under sustained pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 sliding 3.2%. The Dow Jones held up comparatively better, declining 0.9%, owing to its lower technology weighting. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones have now officially entered correction territory after recording drawdowns of more than 10% below their respective peaks,” IG market analyst Fabien Yip said in a commentary note.

Asia-Pacific markets lower overnight

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 4.5% in early trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 3.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.7% lower.

Investor worries have been particularly acute due to the risk of disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Benchmark Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking an increase of more than 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Prices were just over $70 a barrel when the war started. US benchmark crude was also up, at around $101 a barrel, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.

The surge comes as US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of American forces seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. He made the comment in an interview published early Monday by the Financial Times.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the newspaper. “It would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked about Iranian defences there, he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

The US has already launched airstrikes it said targeted military positions on the island. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and new attacks if US troops land on its territory.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors are set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the conflict and its consequences. It will mark the fourth time since the start of the war in Iran the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.

Asian stock markets saw major declines on Monday as gold futures dropped 8% and crude oil prices continued to climb amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.

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As the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply, benchmark US crude rose above $100 a barrel on Monday morning in Europe.

Brent crude, the international standard, went up to more than $113 a barrel. The price of Brent crude has zigzagged lately from about $70 per barrel before the war began to as high as $119.50.

European stock indexes opened with losses, with the FTSE in London losing 1.5%, the CAC-40 in Paris being down by 1.6%, and the DAX in Frankfurt dropping by 2% at the opening.

Earlier on Monday, the International Energy Agency warned that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war and that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries were damaged.

Meanwhile, the de-escalation of the conflict is nowhere near in sight.

Trump warned over the weekend that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, prompting Tehran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.

“Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s retaliatory warnings point to a widening conflict that keeps energy disruption and market volatility elevated, with no clear off-ramp in sight,” said Ng Jing Wen, analyst at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

In Europe, the benchmark natural gas futures were trading above €60 per MWh at the market open.

This follows last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions.

In Asia, stock markets were also significantly impacted by the uncertainty around the Middle East crisis, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropping 3.5%. In Taiwan, the Taiex shed 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 6.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 3.8% and the Shanghai Composite declined 3.6%.

Higher oil prices, which also shook stock markets on Friday, dashed hopes for a possible upcoming cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, analysts said. Before the war, traders were betting that the Fed would cut rates at least twice this year. Central banks in Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom also recently held their interest rates steady.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Friday to close its fourth straight losing week, its longest such streak in a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 443 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2%.

On Wall Street, roughly three out of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell on Friday.

Stocks of smaller companies, which can feel the pinch of higher interest rates more than their bigger rivals, led the way lower. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell a market-leading 2.3%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury finished last week with a jump to 4.38% Friday from 4.25% late Thursday and from just 3.97% before the war started.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed might do, rose to 3.88% from 3.79%.

In currency trading, the US dollar rose to 159.53 Japanese yen from 159.22 yen. The euro cost $1.1526, down from $1.1571.

Published on 18/03/2026 – 16:20 GMT+1•Updated
16:25

Brent crude oil prices reached $110 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, after Iranian state media reported that part of the South Pars gas field, the largest plant in Iran, and the Asaluyeh oil facility were struck by Israel.

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Moreover, the US oil benchmark WTI also rose and is trading at $98 a barrel at the time of writing.

In response to the latest Israeli attacks, the IRGC announced that some Gulf energy sites are once again “legitimate targets”.

The prospect of escalation and prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, resulting in further destruction of energy infrastructure, and consequently disruption to global markets, has sent oil prices higher once again.

The climb occurs despite other positive news that would normally have a dampening effect on energy markets.

Saudi Arabia confirmed on Wednesday that its biggest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, restarted operations on 13 March.

Additionally, the Trump administration officially announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law that restricts the movement of cargo between US ports to vessels that are American-built, American-owned, American-flagged and crewed.

However, in the face of increased tensions and more attacks on oil infrastructure, these potentially mitigating developments have not had any effect in taming prices.

Trump administration confirms Jones Act waiver

The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the Trump administration’s decision to issue a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act.

The measure lifts the restriction on the movement of cargo between US ports, allowing foreign tankers temporarily and cheaply to transport vital resources such as oil, gas and fertilisers along the US coastline.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Leavitt explained that the decision is “just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”

The last Jones Act waiver was issued in October 2022 for a tanker supplying Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona.

Before that, the Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy, after a cyberattack crippled a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Trump renews pressure on allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz

In a separate development, US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on allies to join a naval escort mission in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz and normalise the circulation of vessels in the region.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump argued that allied countries need to use the Strait of Hormuz while the US does not, and warned that they could be left managing it on their own in the aftermath of the war.

Since President Trump’s original request, no firm commitments have emerged, but on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to join the escort mission.

The report also stated that officials are still deliberating whether such an operation would start before or after the war ends.

After meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers discussed extending the bloc’s Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately declined to participate.

In a blow to Brits planning to get away for summer 2026, experts have revealed that the situation in the Middle East could cause holiday prices to rise, even in destinations not affected by the conflict

Brits planning to get away overseas for Easter or summer this year are being warned they may need to expand their budget, as holiday prices could rise across all destinations.

Hannah Mayfield, a qualified financial advisor, has explained that the situation in the Middle East could have a “knock-on effect” on prices, following similar patterns seen during times of instability. Even those who opt for a UK-based staycation, or visit countries nowhere near the Middle East, could see higher prices for flights, accommodation, and even everyday spending.

Hannah explained: “Rising tensions in the Middle East can have a knock-on effect on holiday costs, even if you’re travelling somewhere completely different. But this isn’t a new phenomenon. We’ve seen similar patterns during previous periods of geopolitical instability, where travellers change their plans and demand shifts toward destinations perceived as safer.”

Hannah, who is working with travel insurers PayingTooMuch, gave the reasons why flight prices could rise: “Airlines can face higher operating costs during periods of geopolitical instability. If flights need to avoid certain airspaces, routes can become longer. At the same time, global oil prices usually rise during conflicts in major energy-producing regions, and that can eventually feed through into the price for fuel. For travellers, that might mean more expensive plane tickets.”

And it’s not just overseas jaunts that could become more expensive. Hannah said: “There’s also the potential impact on taking holidays, especially to destinations closer to home. If some holidaymakers decide not to travel as far afield, demand for popular destinations such as coastal towns, national parks and major cities can increase.

“When that happens, accommodation prices often rise during peak periods, particularly if availability is limited.” This could mean that, like during Covid, staycations could become pricier.

If you’re planning a trip, even to ‘safe’ destinations, you Hannah advises: “When travel feels more uncertain making sure you have the right level of cover for your trip becomes even more important, so you are less likely to face unexpected costs. Booking early, staying flexible with travel dates, comparing travel insurance policies and prices for flights can make a noticeable difference to the overall cost of a trip.”

She also had this warning: “Most standard travel insurance policies don’t cover acts of war, so conflicts itself may not typically have a direct impact on premiums. However, travellers should always check their policy details carefully, so they understand exactly what is and isn’t covered.

“Consider getting a policy that offers additional cover for travel disruptions which can offer another layer of protection in situations where official government travel advice changes and costs can’t be recovered elsewhere. It’s also worth noting that travel insurance does not cover events that are already known at the time the policy is purchased.”

Hannah, who also runs What is Wealth, which offers financial education for women, also gave some additional money saving tips for holidaymakers: “Keeping an eye on exchange rates and fuel prices can also help holidaymakers budget more accurately and avoid unexpected costs closer to their trip.”

Have a story you want to share? Email us at webtravel@reachplc.com

The global energy landscape is facing its most volatile period in decades following the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on 28 February that triggered a wider and potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

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What began as a targeted military operation has rapidly escalated into a direct confrontation with global economic implications.

Based on claims by Iranian state media and regional reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has ostensibly adopted a strategy of “energy blackmail” to leverage the international community into pressuring the US and Israel to cease its attacks.

The $200 per oil barrel threat was first articulated shortly after the conflict began.

On Sunday 1 March, a senior IRGC spokesperson warned that if “cowardly anti-human actions” continued, the world should prepare for a massive price surge, even as high as $200 per oil barrel.

This rhetoric has since become a central pillar of Tehran’s messaging.

As recently as this Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, told state media: “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200, because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised.”

Iran’s tactical disruption

The IRGC’s current strategy relies on “internationalising” the cost of the conflict.

By disrupting the flow of nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to drag the global economy into the fray.

This is why the IRGC has targeted vessels from neutral nations, including ships sailing under Thai, Japanese and Marshall Islands flags, among others.

According to energy analysts, this disruption is designed to create domestic political pressure within Western nations, to in turn force the US and Israel to pull back on military action in exchange for energy stability.

By striking countries that have not attacked them directly, Tehran is signaling that no maritime trade is safe as long as the strikes on its soil continue.

The main vector of this strategy is precisely the disruption of energy markets, an element Iran can influence directly through its geographical advantage.

A history of oil price shocks

While $200 per barrel sounds astronomical, oil has approached similar levels in the past when adjusted for inflation.

The highest nominal price ever recorded was around $147 in 2008, driven by peak oil fears and rampant speculation just before the global financial crisis. When adjusted for 2026 inflation, that 2008 peak represents roughly $211 per barrel.

Previous major shocks, such as the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, saw prices quadruple and double respectively from pre-crisis levels.

In 1980, prices hit a nominal peak of about $39.50, which would be approximately $160 in today’s terms.

However, the current crisis involves a total physical blockade of one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, increasing the risk of a price “moonshot”.

Market response and reserves

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading just above $100 per barrel, a sharp increase from the $60 range seen in mid-February before the Iran war began.

The International Energy Agency has attempted to stabilise the market by orchestrating the largest-ever coordinated release of strategic reserves, but the continuation of Iranian strikes agaisnt oil infrastructure and tankers has largely neutralised the effort.

With insurance providers cancelling war-risk coverage and shipping companies redirecting fleets, the market remains in a state of high anxiety.

If the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz persists, the $200 figure may shift from a political threat to an increasingly likely scenario.

In a recent report, Oxford Economics identified $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

Brent futures rose sharply on Thursday, spiking above $100 before easing slightly but remaining higher than levels seen earlier in the week as markets stay incredibly volatile.

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This comes despite an unprecedented decision by the 32-member International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels to calm markets, more than double the volume released after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Following the IEA decision, Iran stepped up its offensive campaign and launched strikes on Omani oil storage facilities at the Salalah port and multiple ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz, sending prices higher again.

Record coordinated release of reserves

The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels. Germany, France and Italy also confirmed they would tap their stocks, while Japan said it would begin releases next Monday.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol described the current Iran-related crisis as an “oil market challenge unprecedented in scale”, adding that the collective response reflected “strong solidarity” in defence of global energy security.

Exports of crude and refined products from the region have dropped to 10-15% of pre-war levels, with the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil, effectively closed to the large majority of tankers.

Iran’s attacks blunt expected price relief

The new Iranian strikes came at lightning speed, directly after the IEA announcement.

Drones targeted fuel storage tanks and silos at Oman’s Salalah port, igniting fires that Omani authorities were still working to contain late on Wednesday.

British maritime security firm Ambrey confirmed damage to the facilities, while Danish shipping giant Maersk temporarily halted port operations.

Omani officials stressed there had been “no disruption to the continuity of oil supplies or petroleum derivatives” inside the country itself, while Iranian state media reported that President Pezeshkian had assured Oman’s sultan the incident would be investigated.

At the same time, six vessels were struck in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Among the reports, there was confirmation of a projectile hitting a container ship near the UAE and strikes on two tankers in Iraqi waters.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, and other monitoring groups, attributed the incidents to Iranian forces or proxies.

These developments, occurring the very day of the reserves release, appear to have smothered the anticipated calming effect on prices.

As of Thursday, the number of ships struck in the region since the beginning of the conflict rose to at least sixteen.

Record release may signal deeper market concerns

Some analysts note that the sheer volume of the release could itself be interpreted negatively. Previous coordinated actions never exceeded 183 million barrels.

The scale of the release suggests importing nations already view the disruption as the most severe and long-lasting in decades.

Even worse, a record release may not be enough.

Speaking to Euronews, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, was blunt in his assessment.

“A record 400 million barrel release from emergency reserves is helpful, but it’s not going to go very far to offset the roughly 15 million daily supply currently disrupted.”

Patterson also added that “the only solution that will bring oil prices down on a sustained basis is getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.”

Oxford Economics echoes this concern, warning that “the economic effect of higher energy costs rises as the oil price increases,” in a report that seemingly indicates the crisis is far from over and we have yet to feel the compounding effect of the initial shock.

Russian sanctions relief remains off the table

With the reserve release failing to calm prices, attention has turned to Russian oil as a potential source of additional supply.

The US Treasury last week granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian crude from vessels already stranded at sea, though the measure expires on 4 April and deliberately excludes new shipments.

Following the G7 emergency discussions on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the group had agreed “the situation does not justify lifting any sanctions” on Russia, emphasising the need to increase global production instead.

The contrast between Washington’s narrow waiver and the G7’s firm collective position leaves little prospect of sanctions relief acting as a meaningful pressure valve, a view shared by analysts.

“Any sanction relief for Russia would see some marginal supply increases, but again not enough, with Russia’s oil output having held up well in recent years despite sanctions,” Warren Patterson of ING told Euronews.

$140-$150 oil barrel possible if conflict is prolonged

Should tensions persist, analysts warn prices could climb substantially higher.

Oxford Economics identifies $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

The managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, also stated that every 10% increase in oil prices, provided they persist for most of the year, will push up global inflation by 0.4% and reduce worldwide economic output by as much as 0.2%.

“The risk is stark,” Patterson warned. “It’s only a matter of time before we see oil prices hitting fresh record highs if the conflict is not swiftly and decisively resolved.”

The IEA’s intervention has provided a temporary buffer, but with little visible impact on prices.

One the UK’s biggest tour operators has suspended its profit guidance after revealing impact of Middle East war on bookings

Spooked Brits are putting their holiday plans on hold because of the Middle East crisis.

Leading holiday firm On the Beach revealed a “significant” drop in demand from British families to Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. “The timing of when the conflict will end and the shape of recovery in demand to these destinations are unknown,” it said.

At the same time, there are are warnings that the cost of a summer getaways could jump after a spike in jet fuel prices. It comes as many UK families would be booking sunshine trips for the Easter holidays.

The scale of the hit to bookings was enough for On the Beach to suspend its full year profit guidance. Boss Shaun Morton said: “Following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, our operational teams have been working round the clock to support directly impacted customers in resort and to enable a return home as soon as possible.”

READ MORE: Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ to global fuel suppliesREAD MORE: Mortgage rates hit 5% and deals slump after latest Iran war fall-out

The fall-out from the Iran war has already seen fuel prices jump and the cost of fixed rate mortgages rise. Industry experts Moneyfacts said the average two-year fixed rate mortgage had risen again, from 5.01% 5.04%. The average five-year fixed deal went up from 5.09% to 5.13%.

It came as oil prices remained at around $100 on Thursday – as two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters after what appeared to be Iranian strikes.

The latest wave of attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East came as Iran warned the world should be ready for oil to hit $200 a barrel.

The conflict has spread across the region and prompted the International Energy Agency to recommended releasing 400 million barrels from reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s, the biggest such intervention in history.

Iran has made clear it intends to impose a prolonged economic shock.

Oil prices, which shot up earlier in the week to nearly $120 a barrel before retreating, jumped almost 10% back above $100 amid renewed fears about supply disruption.

Iranian explosive-laden boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters setting them ablaze and killing one crew member.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “Overnight attacks on shipping off Iran are the stuff of nightmares for investors, confirming that one of the world’s key waterways is closed to shipping and resulting in a fresh surge in oil prices.”

US President Donald Trump claimed the IEA decision “will substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world.”

So far there has been no sign that ships can safely sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the now-blockaded channel along the Iranian coast that serves as a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil.

An Iranian military spokesperson said the Strait was “undoubtedly” under Iran’s control.