Oil prices

International crude oil prices climbed further on Tuesday morning amid uncertainty over US-Iran talks, as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway crucial to oil shipments, faded.

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Hopes that Middle East tensions would ease were dashed at the weekend when Donald Trump rejected Iran’s offer of a seven-day truce.

Mediators are working with the US and Iran on a deal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, officials told the Associated Press. The disruption to shipping through the waterway has affected global trade and added to inflation.

Iran has proposed reopening the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases sanctions, among other conditions. Washington says any deal must also address Iran’s nuclear programme. Officials said the two sides disagree over the timing of concessions and who should act first.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained nearly 2% and traded above $107 a barrel early Tuesday, well above its price of roughly $72 a barrel in late February before the Iran war.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to more than $94 a barrel.

High oil prices have renewed inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again next month. Government bond prices have fallen as a result, pushing yields to multi-year highs.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.27% on Monday, its highest level in 19 years, following a rise of nearly half a percentage point through September. Yields rise when bond prices fall, and this month’s sell-off is the heaviest in two years.

The US two-year yield has risen even further, climbing by more than 0.57 percentage points this month to nearly 5%. In Europe, Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond yield reached 3.62%, its highest level since June 2009.

Government bond yields help set borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to company loans. As yields rise, governments, businesses and households face higher costs, while stocks can become less attractive to investors.

In Japan, a 40-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand since 2020 as relatively high yields attracted investors, according to Bloomberg.

Stock markets also struggled after all three main Wall Street indexes fell on Monday.

In Europe, Tuesday’s open showed a mixed reaction.

The Euro Stoxx 50 was flat in early trading while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 traded 0.2% higher.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Italy’s FTSE MIB, Spain’s IBEX 35 and the Netherlands’ AEX all traded between 0.1% and 0.2% higher than their Monday close.

However, France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX 30 both dropped about 0.5%.

Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.6%. Hong Kong-traded shares of Shein fell 11.7% after the online retailer reported a 67% fall in quarterly adjusted net profit from a year earlier.

The Shanghai Composite was little changed following a report from China’s official Xinhua News Agency late Monday that its State Council had discussed ways to make economic policies more effective.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down more than 0.1% by early morning in Europe.

Australia’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6% on Tuesday, a 15-year high, as rising oil prices fuelled inflation. The Reserve Bank said higher fuel costs were pushing up prices across the economy, while growth and inflation had been stronger than expected.

The US dollar edged up to 157.42 Japanese yen from 157.39 yen. The euro fell to $1.1362 from $1.1371.

Gold remained near $4,160 after steep losses on Monday, as expectations of further rate rises weighed on the metal, which pays no interest.

Investors are also awaiting key US inflation and jobs data this week that could influence the Fed’s next decision. Markets are pricing in another rate rise at the end of October.

Additional sources • AP

Published on
18/09/2026 – 7:54 GMT+2

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 1.9% to 65,332.57 after the Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate to 1.25% from 1.0%, a 31-year high.

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The move had been widely priced in, coming after the Federal Reserve also raised its key rate this week. Pressures have been coming from the US for Japan to raise rates because of concerns about the weakening yen.

The nations intervened together recently to prop up the yen. But the efforts haven’t had a big impact.

In currency trading, the US dollar rose to 157.11 Japanese yen from 155.95 yen. The euro cost $1.1487, up from $1.1480.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.3% to 6,866.83. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, slipping less than 0.1% to 8,731.50. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up nearly 0.7% to 24,769.80, while the Shanghai Composite added 1.0% to 3,916.08.

Falling oil prices and easing pressure from the bond market helped Wall Street reverse many of its losses from the prior day.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% for just its second rise in the last nine days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 316 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.7%.

Wall Street stocks got a boost after the price of a barrel ofBrent crude oil slid from the nearly $110 it reached earlier in the week on worries that the war with Iran will keep oil bottled up in the Middle East instead of going to customers worldwide.

In Asian trading, Brent, the international standard, lost 0.94% to $103.83 a barrel. Benchmark US crude slid 0.83% to $101.06 a barrel.

Brent is still more expensive than the $72 per barrel that it cost earlier this summer, but the recent drop helped pull yields lower in the bond market and removed some pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.93% from 5.01% late Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised the short-term interest rate that it controls, the federal funds rate, by a quarter of a percentage point for its first hike in more than three years. Officials also hinted that they may raise the federal funds rate one more time this year as they try to get high inflation in the US under control.

The signals sent Wall Street on a roller coaster. Stocks initially remained higher for the day after the Fed made its announcement Wednesday. They then slid sharply before recovering a chunk of the losses before trading ended.

On the upside for markets, the shift to higher interest rates built confidence that the Fed is committed to getting inflation back to its target of 2%. On the downside for markets, higher rates undercut prices for stocks and other investments.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 85.95 points to 7,637.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 316.14 to 51,778.04, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 439.87 to 26,418.30.

Additional sources • AP

Published on
15/09/2026 – 7:51 GMT+2

Government bond markets remain under pressure as rising energy prices revive inflation concerns and increase expectations that major central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer.

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The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 5.011% on Monday, according to Dow Jones Market Data, before falling back below 5%. The level was the highest since October 2023.

The yield crossed the psychologically important 5% threshold as higher government borrowing, resilient economic growth and heavy corporate debt issuance linked to artificial intelligence investment compounded pressure on US bonds. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

Rising Treasury yields can feed through to mortgages, corporate loans and other forms of credit, potentially slowing economic growth. They can also make bonds more attractive relative to highly valued equities.

The latest rise followed the US Treasury’s previously announced expansion of its bond-buyback programme. Last week, it offered to purchase up to $6 billion of debt maturing in 10 to 20 years – three times the previous operation’s size.

The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond, meanwhile, remained close to its highest level since 2007.

The sell-off has also spread across Europe. France’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.50% on Monday, while the equivalent Italian yield reached around 4.40%.

Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield climbed as high as 3.538%, according to Dow Jones Market Data, its highest level in 15 years.

Energy prices are a major source of pressure. Brent crude rose to around $107 a barrel on Tuesday morning, while US West Texas Intermediate traded close to $103, as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping in the Gulf intensified concerns about supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% last week and warned that inflation could remain above its target for an extended period. Markets are pricing in at least one further ECB increase this year.

Attention now turns to three major central-bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve announces its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday.

A Reuters poll found that 85% of economists expected the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points, while money markets placed the probability of an increase at around 93%.

The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Economists surveyed by Reuters unanimously forecast no change, although some analysts have warned that a surprise increase cannot be ruled out. The BoJ is widely expected to raise borrowing costs.

Published on 14/09/2026 – 9:40 GMT+2•Updated
9:46

The oil market spent Monday morning pricing in a weekend of bad news from the Gulf.

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Brent for October and November deliveries gained over 3% and crossed $108 a barrel, while the US benchmark WTI for October rose 2.3% to around $102, both extending last week’s advance after each reclaimed the $100 threshold.

Prices moved following Saudi Arabia’s announcement that its East-West pipeline is temporarily closed after drone attacks.

The line carries crude across the kingdom to Red Sea ports, allowing oil to reach export terminals without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, so its loss removes the main alternative at the moment the strait itself is most dangerous.

That danger was also demonstrated on Sunday, when a merchant vessel was hit in the strait, killing one person and injuring three others, according to Iranian authorities.

Passage through the waterway now works very differently from before the war.

Vessels must obtain Iranian permission to transit, and Tehran is weighing a mechanism to charge service fees. Ships that fail to comply are routinely targeted, while US forces periodically bomb the Iranian coastline to contest Tehran’s claim to control the strait.

Diplomatic efforts have stalled too.

Oman has postponed planned talks between Iran and Gulf states on the future of the waterway, which carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

Record fuel prices and finger-pointing

The consequences are extremely visible at American pumps.

The US national average price of diesel crossed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time in history, up from around $5.85 a week earlier and roughly 60% above the $3.71 drivers paid a year ago.

Petrol is also averaging $4.22 after setting records over the Labor Day weekend.

US President Donald Trump has pointed the finger elsewhere.

Speaking to reporters in Ireland on Sunday, where he was attending the Irish Open at his Doonbeg golf resort, Trump stated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia.”

“Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel,” Trump added.

Ukraine has struck more than 20 Russian refinery targets this summer, prompting Moscow to ban diesel exports.

On the flight back from his state visit to Ireland this weekend, Trump reiterated the claim.

However, the supply arithmetic suggests otherwise.

Analysts attribute roughly 800,000 barrels a day of lost diesel supply to Russia’s export ban, against about 1.2 million from disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lipow Oil Associates.

The wider picture is more lopsided still as crude flows through the strait have fallen from around 20 million barrels a day before the war to about 7 million.

Between them, the two wars have also shut refineries representing around 5 million barrels a day of capacity.

Additional sources • AFP

BEIJING: Oil prices jumped more than two percent on Monday, after new Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf compounded supply concerns following the closure of a key Saudi oil pipeline.

Brent crude futures rose $2.90, or 2.77 percent, to $107.51 per barrel as of 2313 GMT. WTI futures rose $2.27, or 2.27 percent, to $102.32 per barrel. Prices had initially risen more than ‌3 percent at market ‌open.

Saudi Arabian state media on Sunday released ​video ‌footage of ⁠damage to ​homes ⁠and a mosque from what it said was a Houthi attack on the country’s southern Jazan province. The Houthis said they had also struck a Saudi military base in a neighboring province.

A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile, causing a fire and forcing the crew to be evacuated, the British maritime security agency UKMTO said on Sunday.

Iran said one person was killed ⁠and four crew wounded aboard an Iranian commercial vessel struck ‌off its coast.

Oil prices had been ‌expected to rise on Monday amid growing concerns about ​risks to supply from Saudi Arabia, ‌the world’s largest oil exporter, whose East-West oil pipeline was shut on Friday ‌by a drone strike that originated in Iraq.

The loss of the pipeline, which helped Saudi Arabia re-route its exports avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, threatens up to 4 percent of global oil supply.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis had reached the strategic island of Perim on ‌Friday, moving to tighten their control over the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, another key oil transit lane that has been shipping ⁠4-5 percent of ⁠global supply in recent months.

Oil surged 8 percent higher on the week due to the disruptions, rising above $100 for the first time since July.

“Looking ahead, unless this week’s talks in Oman produce something operational — or the East-West pipeline is brought back online quickly — the risk is that crude oil continues to extend its gains toward the $119.48 high of early March,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note on Sunday.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said on X later on Sunday, however, that a scheduled Monday meeting in Oman between Gulf countries and Iran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz had been postponed.

No peace talks ​have been held in the ​war, launched six months ago by the United States and Israel, since an interim agreement in June collapsed after a few weeks.

Published on 09/09/2026 – 10:16 GMT+2•Updated
10:22

The front month contract on Brent crude, the international standard for oil prices, crossed $100 per barrel again on Wednesday morning while the US standard, WTI, hovered around $95.

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Prices have risen almost 20% since the middle of last week as fighting around the world’s most important oil chokepoint has once again intensified.

It is also the first time since 23 July that oil has hit the $100 mark.

US Central Command said its forces destroyed five Iranian tankers carrying crude oil on 8 September after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a US Navy warship twice within two days. The command did not identify the ship, but said it was not hit and continued patrolling regional waters.

It followed a similar strike on 5 September, when Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer, both of which evaded the attack. The command responded by disabling or destroying three Iranian tankers.

Tehran retaliated by firing missiles at a US military base in Jordan, where air defences intercepted most of them, and renewed threats to target tankers in Kuwaiti and Bahraini waters.

Iran has also repeatedly warned vessels against using unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran would soon declare an exclusion zone outside the strait, warning that any vessel entering without Iranian coordination would be added to a sanctions list.

Saudi Arabia has been drawn in too, with Aramco facilities at Jazan attacked again on Monday, though damage was reported as limited.

Roughly 7 million barrels a day are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, against about 20 million before the war began on 28 February.

No end in sight

The military escalation is running alongside a financial one.

Washington launched Operation Economic Outcast in late August, an effort to sever Iran from the global financial system by targeting its access to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.

The US Treasury designated close to 60 companies, individuals and vessels at the outset and has signalled fresh measures weekly, with the European Union endorsing the campaign this month.

Rhetoric on both sides has hardened.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the country “will destroy [and sink]” Iranian oil tankers if Iran fires on American vessels while the Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf replied by stating “strike our assets and you get struck”.

US President Donald Trump has continued to insist the waterway is functioning, posting on Truth Social last week that “Hormuz volumes are BACK” and claiming 18 million barrels a day were flowing.

However, the US Energy Secretary Chris Wright put Monday’s figure at 17 million barrels of crude and products combined, while acknowledging the multi-day rolling average is considerably lower.

During last week’s White House press conference, US Vice President JD Vance also declined to categorise the ongoing conflict as a war and stated that “the only reason we do not have a worldwide energy crisis is because of the leadership of the President.”

Faced with the latest developments, analysts are adjusting upward.

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 on Monday to $85 and $80, respectively, for December and warned prices could exceed $120 next year should Gulf output remain 4 million barrels a day below pre-war levels, though the bank does not treat that as its base case.