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The United States military is “not ready” to accompany oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a top official in President Donald Trump’s administration says as Iran continues to block the strategic waterway.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the CNBC business news channel on Thursday that the markets are experiencing a “short-term disruption”, predicting that the war would go on for “weeks, not months”.

Despite Trump’s repeated threats, Iran has largely succeeded in shutting down the strait, which links the Gulf to the Indian Ocean. The closure has sent oil prices soaring.

Wright described the effects of the crisis as “short-term pain for long-term gain”, arguing that the US is “destroying” Iran’s ability to threaten the energy market.

Last week, Trump suggested that the US Navy would escort ships through the Gulf, but Wright said on Thursday that the move “can’t happen now”.

“We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities,” the energy secretary said.

“We don’t want this to be a brush-off for a year or two. We want to permanently destroy their ability to build missiles, to build roads, to have a nuclear programme.”

His comments came as Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, affirmed in his first public comment since being selected to succeed his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei, that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed during the war.

“The will of the people is to continue effective and deterrent defence,” Khamenei said in a written statement. “The tactic of closing the Strait of Hormuz must also continue to be used.”

The Iranian military has said it would “welcome” the US Navy escorting oil ships, suggesting it is prepared to strike US forces in the narrow waterway.

On Wednesday, three commercial vessels were attacked near the strait.

Wright announced earlier this week on social media that the US Navy had escorted an oil ship through the strait, then quickly deleted the post. The White House subsequently confirmed that the claim was not true.

It is not clear why the statement was released and then retracted.

Assurances by US officials that Washington would open the strait have temporarily calmed markets, only for prices to spike again.

The price of a barrel of oil peaked at about $120 on Sunday, up from about $70 before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. It has been yo-yoing between $80 and $100 for the past few days.

In addition to the marine blockade, Iran has targeted oil installations across the Gulf.

As one of the world’s largest oil producers, the US is largely self-sufficient. But possible shortages in Asia and Europe have put a strain on prices globally.

According to data from the American Automobile Association, the average price of one gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol in the US is now $3.60, up from $2.94 last month.

Rising energy prices could fuel inflation and affect the cost of basic goods, including food.

But Trump suggested on Thursday that the US is benefitting from skyrocketing oil prices.

“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” the US president wrote in a social media post.

“BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stopping an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World.”

Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon, and Trump reiterated for months before the current conflict that US strikes against Iranian facilities in June had “obliterated” the country’s nuclear programme.

A video out of RAF Fairford in England shows American B-1Bs getting prepped for a strike mission against Iran. In addition to the staple AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles being readied for loading onto the ‘Bones,’ we see GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) equipped with BLU-109 2,000-lb bunker buster warheads. We can also see the revolving weapons rack being extracted from the B-1’s weapons bay. The move from cruise missiles to JDAMs, at least for some targets, is a sign that air supremacy over Iran is becoming more assured, at least in some areas. You can read all about how the U.S. and Israel had not achieved air supremacy last week in our report linked here.

The videos were posted on X by journalist Richard Gaisford and can be seen below:

The bomber force at RAF Fairford has expanded even larger over the last couple of days. There were nine American bombers at Fairford — three B-52s and six B-1s — as of the start of this week. Now there are 15 total — three B-52s and 12 B-1Bs.

Bomber aircraft can achieve far greater and more varied effects if they are allowed to directly strike targets instead of relying on cruise missiles fired at standoff ranges. This is especially true for delivering withering assaults on large target areas via a belly full of JDAMs. It also allows the aircraft to do this against targets that require bunker-buster capabilities. So far, we only know of the B-2 that has executed large-scale bunker buster attacks in Iran, using its stealth capabilities, as well as support from the total force, to ensure it can safely return from the mission. Fighters have been able to deliver much smaller numbers of these weapons onto targets deeper in Iran. Opening up these same target sets to forward-deployed B-1s and B-52s would help change the pace and impact of the air campaign.

Potential targets include large industrial complexes used for long-range weapons production and development, command and control bunkers, nuclear-program related sites, and, maybe most likely, keeping Iran’s underground ‘missile cities’ entombed by bombing their entrances so that the weapons that are housed inside can not be put to use.

B-1s first mission to Iran out of RAF Fairford UK

Still, B-1s and B-52s will likely operate over western Iran, where degradation of enemy air defenses has been the focus for nearly two weeks. Venturing into the eastern part of the country, which has seen far less attention, probably remains too risky. This is underscored by the map below, which the Pentagon released yesterday, showing the distribution of strikes across Iran during the first 10 days of the conflict (February 28 to March 9).

We still don’t know if the U.S. military will activate Diego Garcia as another forward operating location for its bombers. The U.K. government approved the use of both Fairford and Diego Garcia last week after denying that access leading up to the war. We have seen some heavy transport movements in satellite imagery to the remote island outpost in the Indian Ocean, and KC-135 tankers and force protection F-16s are still there, so it’s possible this could occur or has already happened. Cloud cover has kept the island obscured in satellite imagery for the last few days. Of course, such a deployment all depends on how long this campaign will actually last, with conflicting signals from the Trump administration as to its planned duration and exit strategy.

Regardless, it looks like the B-1s are going to be using their extremely large payload capacity to directly attack hardened Iranian targets in the very near future.

Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has laid out terms for ending the war with the United States and Israel in what analysts say is a possible sign of de-escalation from Tehran as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 13th day on Thursday.

In a post on Wednesday on social site X, Pezeshkian said he had spoken to his counterparts in Russia and Pakistan, and that he had confirmed “Iran’s commitment to peace”.

“The only way to end this war – ignited by the Zionist regime & US – is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” Pezeshkian wrote.

This is a rare posture from Tehran, which has maintained a defiant stance and initially rejected any possibility of negotiations or a ceasefire when war broke out nearly two weeks ago.

Pezeshkian’s statement comes as pressure mounts on the US to halt what has become a very costly mission. Analysts say speculation from Washington that Iran would quickly submit after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were misguided.

Tehran is likely going to determine the end of this war, not the US or Israel, because of its ability to inflict economic pain broadly, they say.

Amid a military pummelling by the US and Israel, Iran has launched heavy retaliatory strikes at US assets and other critical infrastructure in Gulf countries, upsetting global supplies. It has also adopted what analysts call “asymmetric” tactics – such as disrupting the critical Strait of Hormuz and threatening US banking-linked entities – to inflict as much economic pain on the region and wider world as it can.

This is what we know about Pezeshkian’s stance and what the pressures are on both sides to draw the conflict to a close, quickly.

What has the war cost so far?

Economically, both sides have weaponised energy. Israel first targeted Iran’s oil facilities in Tehran on March 8, prompting an outcry from global health experts over the potential risk of air and water pollution.

Iran has, meanwhile, tightened its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route – the only route to open sea for oil producers in the Gulf – with its military promising on Wednesday that it has the capabilities to wage a long war that could “destroy” the world economy.

Attacks on ships in the strait, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas traffic normally passes, have effectively closed the route.

Oil prices rocketed above $100 per barrel late last week, up from around $65 before the war, with ordinary buyers feeling the increases at pumps in the US, Europe and parts of Africa.

On Wednesday, Iran upped the ante, saying it would not allow “a litre of oil” to pass through the strait and warned the world to expect a $200-per-barrel price tag.

“We don’t know how quickly it’ll revert back,” Freya Beamish, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, told Al Jazeera. “We do think it’ll revert back to $80 in due course, but the ball is to some degree in Iran’s court,” she said, adding that because Iran needs oil revenue, the price hikes are expected to be time-limited.

The International Energy Agency agreed on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels from the emergency reserves of several member states but it is not yet clear what impact that will have, nor how quickly this quantity of oil can be released.

Tehran has also been accused of directly attacking oil facilities in neighbouring countries this week. Iraq shut all its oil port operations on Thursday after explosive-laden Iranian “drone” boats appeared to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member.

A drone was filmed striking Oman’s Salalah oil port on Wednesday, although Tehran has denied involvement.

What are Iranian officials saying about ending the war?

There has been conflicting messaging from the Iranian leadership.

Iran’s elite army unit and parallel armed force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), continues to show defiance, issuing threats and launching attacks on Israel and US military assets and infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries.

However, the political leadership has appeared more inclined towards diplomacy, analysts say. On Wednesday, President Pezeshkian said that ending the war would take the US and Israel recognising Iran’s rights, paying Iran reparations – although it’s unclear how much is being asked for – and providing strong guarantees that a future war will not be waged.

In a video recording last week, he also apologised to neighbouring countries for the strikes and promised that Iran would stop hitting its neighbours as long as they do not allow the US to launch attacks from their territory.

“I personally apologise to the neighbouring countries that were affected by Iran’s actions,” the president said, adding that Tehran was not looking for confrontations with its neighbours.

However, it is not known how much sway the political leadership has over the IRGC. Hours after the president’s apology last week, air defence sirens went off in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, as strikes continued on the Gulf.

So, what is Iran’s actual position?

“Iran wants to go to the end to make sure that the United States and Israel never attack Iran again … so this has to be the final battle,” Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas explained.

Indeed, the IRGC sees this as an existential war, but the timing of Pezeshkian’s statement about ending the conflict also shows Tehran is pressured economically, politically and militarily, Zeidon Alkinani of Qatar’s Georgetown University told Al Jazeera.

“These differences and divisions [between IRGC and political leaders] always existed even prior to this war but we may notice it now more, given the fact that the IRGC believes that it has the right to take the front seat in leading this regional war, which is why a lot of the statements and positions are contradicting with the official ones from Pezeshkian,” he said.

The IRGC reports directly to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and not to the country’s political leadership. That council is led by Ali Larijani, a top politician and close aide to the late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who analysts describe as a “hardliner”.

In a post on X on Tuesday, Larijani responded to threats from Trump about attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, saying: “Iranian people do not fear your hollow threats; for those greater than you have failed to erase it … So beware lest you be the ones to vanish.”

The newly elected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was once in the IRGC and was put forward by the unit as the next ayatollah after his father was killed on the first day of the war, analysts say. He is thus not expected to follow the reformist, diplomatic ideals of President Pezeshkian and other political leaders which his father managed to marry with the IRGC militarised stance, they say.

What do the US and Israel say about ending the war?

There have also been conflicting messages from the Trump administration and Israel regarding when the war mission on Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury, is likely to end.

Trump told US publication Axios on Wednesday that the war on Iran would end “soon” because there’s “practically nothing left to target”.

“Anytime I want it to end, it will end,” he added. He had said earlier on Monday that “we’re way ahead of our schedule” and that the US had achieved its goals, even as speculation mounts about a possible US ground mission.

On the other hand, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that the war would go on “without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign”.

Analysts say Trump’s stance that the conflict will be quick reflects increasing pressure on his administration ahead of upcoming mid-term elections in November.

Trump’s advisers privately told him this week to find a quick end to the war and avoid political backlash, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal. That came as polls from Quinnipiac University and The Washington Post suggested that most Americans are opposed to the war in Iran.

In his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to lower prices, and inflation had stabilised at 2.4 percent ahead of the war, according to government data released on Wednesday. Analysts speculate the conflict will likely push it back up.

The US spent more than $11.3bn in the first six days of the war, Pentagon officials told lawmakers in a classified briefing on Tuesday, Reuters reported this week – nearly $2bn a day.

The Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimated that the war cost Washington $3.7bn in its first 100 hours alone, or nearly $900m a day, largely due to its expenditure on costly munitions.

“It’s quite ironic that [Trump] chose a war that would make affordability worse, not better,” Rebecca Christie, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, told Al Jazeera’s Counting the Cost.

“Every time the US loses even one object, air defence or a plane or something like that, that represents an awful lot of money that could have been used on some of these issues that have an impact on people’s day-to-day lives in the United States.”

Multiple explosions have been reported across Iran’s capital, Tehran, and other cities as United States-Israeli attacks and Iranian retaliation continue.

As the conflict saw its 13th day on Thursday, Iran’s representative to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said at least 1,348 civilians have been killed.

The humanitarian toll continues to mount with more than 17,000 injured in Iran since the US and Israel launched their war on February 28. UNICEF described the situation as “catastrophic”, noting that more than 1,100 children have been reported injured or killed.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that up to 3.2 million people have been displaced within Iran since the conflict began. “This figure is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs,” UNHCR said in a statement.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israeli attacks since March 2 have killed at least 687 people, including 98 children, according to Information Minister Paul Morcos.

United Nations refugee agency says forced displacement likely to increase as US and Israel continue deadly strikes across Iran.

More than three million people have been displaced in Iran since the United States and Israel launched a war against the country late last month, the United Nations says, as concerns mount over a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said on Thursday that as many as 3.2 million people – representing between 600,000 and one million Iranian households – have been forcibly displaced since the war began on February 28.

“Most of them are reportedly fleeing from Tehran and other major urban areas towards the north of the country and rural areas to seek safety,” UNHCR official Ayaki Ito said in a statement.

“This figure is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs.”

The US and Israeli militaries have continued to bombard Iran despite mounting international condemnation and calls for de-escalation.

More than 1,300 people have been killed in US-Israeli attacks across the country to date, according to the latest figures from Iranian officials.

While the US and Israel have said they are targeting Iranian leaders as well as military and nuclear infrastructure, Iran says thousands of civilian sites, such as schools and hospitals, have been attacked.

Iran’s Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian told Al Jazeera on Thursday that medical teams have been responding to a growing number of casualties as strikes on urban areas have intensified in recent days.

“Most of these people are civilians,” Jafarian said, adding that more than 30 hospitals and health facilities have been damaged due to the attacks.

On Thursday, explosions were heard in several parts of the capital, Tehran, and other Iranian cities as the strikes continued.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said rescuers were digging through mounds of rubble as several multistorey apartment buildings were heavily damaged in recent attacks on a hard-hit eastern neighbourhood of Tehran.

“We saw bodies taken out [of the rubble] … and the situation was far beyond what I can call disastrous,” Asadi said.

Iran has responded to the US-Israeli assault by launching a barrage of missiles and drones at US bases and other sites in countries across the wider Middle East region.

It has also shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil transits, raising serious concerns of disruptions to global energy supplies.

Despite United States President Donald Trump’s repeated declarations of victory in the US-Israeli war on Iran, Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel and US military assets in the region have continued, upending global financial and energy markets.

“We’ve had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west. We’ve incorporated lessons accordingly,” Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X on March 1, the day after US and Israeli strikes on Tehran killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials.

“Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war,” he wrote.

According to analysts, Iran has made use of “asymmetric” warfare tactics while striking the US and Israel. So, are Tehran’s war tactics working?

Here’s what we know:

What is ‘asymmetric’ warfare?

When the balance of capabilities is unequal in a conflict – as it is in relation to weapons in this one – the weaker party can turn to unconventional methods of warfare, John Phillips, a British safety, security and risk adviser and a former military chief instructor, told Al Jazeera.

This is known as “asymmetric” warfare.

This can include the use of guerrilla tactics, terrorism, cyberattacks, use of proxies and other indirect tools, Phillips said, in order “to offset conventional inferiority, avoid the enemy’s strengths, and exploit vulnerabilities in political will, logistics, and legal or ethical constraints”.

“Iran is conventionally weaker than the US and Israel, but relatively strong compared to many neighbours,” he said.

“What makes Iran distinctive is not that it uses these methods at all, but that they sit at the centre of its grand strategy rather than at its margins.”

Why is Iran using asymmetric warfare?

In the ongoing war between Iran and the US-Israel, Washington and Tel Aviv have been using expensive missiles and drones to attack Iran and to intercept missiles Iran has fired back. The Patriot and THAAD defence systems, for example, which launch interceptors to take out incoming drones and missiles, can cost millions of dollars for each missile they fire. This compares with the $20,000-$35,000 cost of each Iranian Shahed drone.

As a result, the US has reportedly spent $2bn a day in its war on Iran and there are fears it could run out of interceptor missiles altogether if the war goes on for more than a few weeks.

It is therefore in Iran’s interests to focus on holding out against strikes and protecting its own weapons supplies while it does so, military experts say.

However, Phillips explained that precision strikes and sabotage by Israel and the US have demonstrated that Iran is not able to fully shield its missile, drone and nuclear‑related assets, while sanctions and domestic pressures have limited its capacity to sustain a very high‑tempo confrontation.

“As a result, Iran’s asymmetric approach is best understood as an effective ‘survival and leverage’ mechanism that produces a chronic, costly ‘shadow war’, rather than a path to decisive regional hegemony or victory,” he said.

Iran began using asymmetric warfare techniques following the 1979 Iranian revolution, which overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

“Instead of trying to match high‑end aircraft, precision munitions, or blue‑water fleets, [Iran] has built a ‘forward deterrence’ posture that operates in the grey zone between war and peace,” Phillips said.

“This is backed by large inventories of ballistic and cruise missiles, mass‑produced drones [often handed to proxies], cyber-operations, and a posture of underground, dispersed and hardened facilities that make preemption difficult and preserve some retaliatory capability.”

What asymmetric tactics has Iran been using?

Enemy depletion tactics

Since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched a wave of ballistic missiles targeting Israel and US military bases across the Gulf region.

Using a mix of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, as well as drone swarms through this defence system, Iran aims to deplete Israeli and US interceptor stockpiles.

Economic warfare

Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies are shipped. Linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, the strait is the only waterway to the open ocean available to Gulf oil producers.

On Thursday, Iran attacked fuel tankers in Iraqi waters. Instability in and around the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude oil prices past $100 a barrel last week, with wild swings ongoing, prompting fears of a global energy crisis.

Iran has also targeted civilian infrastructure like airports and desalination plants which are crucial for water supply in the region, and it has launched drones targeting oil depots.

War on global finance

Meanwhile, on Wednesday this week, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to attack “economic centres and banks” with links to United States and Israeli entities in the Gulf region after what it claimed was an attack on an Iranian bank, with the war in its 12th day.

Since then, many banks like Citibank and HSBC in Qatar, have begun shutting, further threatening global financial stability.

Top technology companies such as Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia and Oracle, as well as the listed offices and infrastructure for cloud-based services, are also located in several Israeli cities and in some Gulf countries, which Iran has also threatened to attack.

Use of proxies

Iran has aimed to keep the much more powerful US military and its allies off balance through proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Hezbollah in Lebanon, for example, has fired missiles and drones into northern Israel since March 2 as part of Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

“At the core of this [asymmetric] approach is a network of proxies and partners – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, groups in Syria, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen – which receive weapons, training, funding and ideological guidance from Iran,” Phillips said.

These actors allow Tehran to threaten Israeli and US forces, as well as regional shipping lanes, on multiple fronts, “often with a degree of deniability and at a fraction of the cost of deploying its own regular forces”, Phillips noted.

‘Mosaic’ defence system

Iran has organised its defensive structure into multiple regional and semi-independent layers instead of concentrating power in a single command chain that could be paralysed by a decapitation strike. This concept is most closely associated with the formation of the parallel military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), particularly under former commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, who led the force from 2007 to 2019.

The doctrine has two central aims: to make Iran’s command system difficult to dismantle by force, and to make the battlefield itself harder to resolve quickly by turning Iran into a layered arena of regular defence, irregular warfare, local mobilisation and long-term attrition.

What damage have these tactics done to the US and Israel?

Iran’s asymmetrical playbook has made the war more expensive for the US. It has been forced to spend money on replacing stockpiles of expensive missiles like Tomahawks and defensive systems such as Patriot and THAAD interceptors.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the first 100 hours alone of Operation Epic Fury – the codename for the US-Israeli assault on Iran – cost the US approximately $3.7bn, mostly unbudgeted. Israel, already reeling from the economic strain of its prolonged wars in Gaza and Lebanon, faces mounting domestic pressure as daily sirens force millions into bunkers.

While the Pentagon has not yet announced an official estimate for the cost of the war, late last week, two congressional sources told US broadcaster MS NOW that the war is costing the United States an estimated $1bn a day.

A day later, Politico reported that US Republicans on Capitol Hill privately fear the Pentagon is spending close to $2bn a day on the war.

Meanwhile, officials from President Donald Trump’s administration estimated during a congressional briefing this week that the first six days of the war on Iran had cost the US at least $11.3bn, a source familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency.

Reporting from Washington, DC, following the publication of the CSIS analysis last week, Al Jazeera’s Rosiland Jordan said the Pentagon had put together a $50bn supplemental budget request in order to replace Tomahawk and Patriot missiles and THAAD interceptors already used in the first week of the war, along with other equipment that had been damaged or worn out so far.

Are Iran’s tactics working?

To a certain extent, they are.

According to a report by The Soufan Center, the “pattern of Iranian counterattacks suggests a layered operational approach designed to generate pressure on Gulf states, create regional disruption on land, sea, and air, while simultaneously attempting to exhaust US and allied defensive resources”.

“Tehran appears to be fighting a war of endurance: prolong the conflict, expand the economic battlefield, make the costs increasingly prohibitive, ration advanced capabilities, and impose steady human and financial costs on its adversaries. All with the hope that political tolerance erodes faster in Jerusalem and Washington than in Tehran,” the report noted.

This may be working. Questions about the cost of the war are already causing a political headache for the Trump administration in Washington.

Congress’s House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters at a Capitol Hill news conference last week that President Donald Trump is “plunging America into another endless conflict in the Middle East” and “spending billions of dollars to bomb Iran”.

“But they can’t find a dime to make it more affordable for the American people to go see a doctor when they need one,” he said. “Can’t find a dime to make it easier for Americans who are working hard to purchase their first home. And they can’t find a dime to lower the grocery bills of the American people.”

Trump won the presidency in 2024 largely on the back of a promise to handle the rising cost of living and he faces mid-term elections this year. It is likely that the cost of the war will not play well with voters, analysts say.

In Israel, opposition politician Yair Golan has also criticised his government’s economic management of the war.

In a post on X on Sunday, he wrote: “The war with Iran has been planned for months. The fact that the Israeli government has not prepared an orderly economic plan to support citizens during the war period is a disgrace.

“The serving and working public should not be the one footing the bill for the war out of its own pocket while billions of shekels go to the evading and non-working sector,” he said, adding that the opposition will soon replace the government.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that at a fraction of the cost – and despite a significant technological gap – Iran has demonstrated an ability to hold the global economy at risk, to pressure Washington into “blinking first”.

“A steady stream of inexpensive drones and limited missile strikes can disrupt the thriving economies of Israel and the Gulf, sending shockwaves through energy markets and ultimately translating into higher prices at American gas stations,” he said.

Phillips, the British safety, security and risk adviser, said the strategy has worked in important but limited ways.

“It has helped the Islamic republic survive intense sanctions, clandestine campaigns and periodic strikes while maintaining a credible ability to hit US bases, Israeli territory and Gulf infrastructure, which in turn raises the political and military cost of any attempt at regime-change war,” he said.

“Iran’s reach – stretching from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen – allows it to shape crises, quickly raise the stakes of local conflicts, and force adversaries to devote substantial resources to missile defence, counter‑UAV systems, naval protection and regional coalition management,” he noted.

“However, there are clear constraints and growing problems. Key proxies such as Hezbollah and various militias have suffered leadership and infrastructure losses; the network has become more fragmented and sometimes less controllable, increasing the risk of unwanted escalation even as its coherence as an instrument of policy erodes,” he added.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi shows the aftermath of US-Israeli airstrikes on a residential neighbourhood in Iran, where rescue teams have been searching for survivors among the rubble.

Authorities have said most of those who died were found buried in mud.

The death toll from landslides and flooding in the Gamo Zone of southern Ethiopia has risen to at least 64, with dozens more people missing, police have said.

“The number of people missing due to the recent flood in Gamo zone has reached 128, and according to the latest information, 64 bodies have been found,” said the South Ethiopia Regional State Police Commission in a statement on Facebook on Thursday.

The Gacho Baba district communication chief, Abebe Agena, said most of those who died were found buried in mud. It is not yet clear how many households were affected.

Gamo Zone director of disaster response Mesfin Manuqa said that one person was pulled out of mud alive during rescue operations.

Tilahun Kebede, president of the South Ethiopia Regional State, expressed his sorrow over the disaster and urged residents to move to higher ground as rains continue.

“Given that it is the rainy season and these types of disasters could happen again, I am calling on communities living in the highlands and flood-prone areas to take the necessary precautions,” he said.

Flooding caused by heavy rains has led to the deaths, with most of East Africa seeing heavy flooding in recent days.

Dozens were killed in neighbouring Kenya after torrential rain hit the capital, Nairobi, and other areas on Friday.

Mudslides and floods caused by heavy rainfall are common in Ethiopia, especially during the rainy season.

In July 2024, a deadly mudslide caused by heavy rain killed more than 250 people in southern Ethiopia.

Multiple studies have tracked the increasing frequency of extreme wet and dry periods in East Africa in the last 20 years.

Scientists have long warned that human-driven climate change is increasing the likelihood, length and severity of severe weather events such as torrential downpours.

From Mirjam Swanson: Wham, Bam, pfft.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo scored 83 points Tuesday night, the second most in an NBA game in history, surpassing Kobe Bryant’s iconic 81 points two decades ago.

Congrats to Adebayo, I guess.

The way it went down was highly questionable. Nothing romantic or real about it. We thought flopping and foul-baiting made for unethical hoops, but those are but basketball misdemeanors; Adebayo’s big night was felonious.

Tuesday’s game featured intentional clock-stopping, game-extending fouls by the Heat. And it was ripe with free-throw-abetting fouls by the Washington Wizards, an actively tanking team that got itself blown out, 150-129.

So, no. Bryant’s necessary, organic 81 this was not. The Lakers trailed that game against the Toronto Raptors on Jan. 22, 2006, at halftime and actually needed Kobe’s 55 second-half points to pull away for the win.

The Heat were up by as many as 28 points in the fourth quarter with Adebayo continuing to play pop-a-shot in the historic farce — which also moved him past LeBron James, whose 61 points in 2014 stood as Miami’s previous franchise record.

Now a Laker, LeBron cheered the effort on X, writing: “BAM BAM BAM” with a bunch of fire emojis.

Clippers run up big score in victory

Kawhi Leonard scored 45 points and the Clippers routed the Minnesota Timberwolves 153-128 on Wednesday night, moving above .500 with their third straight victory and sixth in seven games.

Eighth in the Western Conference at 33-32 after opening 6-21, the Clippers had their highest point total of the season. They blew out Minnesota after beating New York on Monday night to open a five-game homestand.

Leonard was 15 of 20 from the the field, six of nine on threes and made nine of 10 free throws. Los Angeles made 19 of 37 threes.

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Clippers box score

NBA standings

USC men’s basketball season ends with a thud

From Luke DeCock: The eventual end of the USC men’s basketball season came the same way that it fizzled out during the past month, with yet another second-half collapse that featured the added pain of overtime.

Tuesday’s 83-79 overtime loss to Washington in the Big Ten tournament, the Trojans’ eighth straight defeat, brought to a close what USC coach Eric Musselman called the toughest stretch of his coaching career. It included not only USC’s longest losing streak in a decade, but a pair of 19-point losses to UCLA and the dismissal of leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara from the team in the past 10 days alone.

The Trojans led the Huskies by 13 in the second half and had chances to win at the end of regulation and overtime, only to miss all three potential game-winning or game-tying shots and go 2-for-5 from the free-throw line in overtime. For a team that was once in NCAA tournament consideration before stumbling, that failure to finish was a persistent flaw.

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Iran won’t play in World Cup

From Kevin Baxter: Iran’s sports minister said his nation will not participate in this summer’s World Cup following the attacks on the country by the U.S., one of the tournament’s hosts.

The U.S. bombing campaign against Iran, which began two weeks ago, has triggered a region-wide conflict and killed more than 1,300 Iranians including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani.

“Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup,” sports minister Ahmad Donyamali said on state television Wednesday.

“Our players do not have security, and fundamentally the conditions for participation do not exist.”

Donyamali’s statement came just hours after FIFA president Gianni Infantino said he had received assurances from President Trump that Iran would be allowed to participate in the tournament, which will be played in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

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This day in sports history

1937 — The first National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA) men’s basketball tournament is won by Central Missouri State. Central Missouri wins the eight-team, single-elimination tournament by defeating Morningside College (Iowa) 35-24.

1966 — In the last race of his 40-year career, John Longden wins the San Juan Capistrano Handicap at Santa Anita, aboard George Royal. He retires with a then-record number of victories, 6,032.

1984 — Jayne Torvill and Christopher Dean of Britain become the first ice dancing team to record nine perfect marks of 6.0 during the world championships.

1985 — Larry Bird scores 60 points, including Boston’s last 16, to set a Celtics record and lead them to a 126-115 victory over Atlanta.

1994 — The Arkansas men’s track and field team wins its 11th straight NCAA Indoor Championship with a meet-record 94 points. The 54-point victory margin is the biggest in the meet’s 30-year history.

2002 — Siena (17-18), with an 81-77 victory over Alcorn State in the play-in game, becomes first team in 47 years to win an NCAA men’s basketball tournament game with a losing record.

2003 — Damian Costantino’s NCAA-record hitting streak ends at 60 games, one day after he broke Robin Ventura’s 16-year-old mark. Costantino, an outfielder for Division III Salve Regina of Newport, R.I., fails to get a hit in the first game of a doubleheader against Baldwin-Wallace. It’s the first time he finishes a game hitless since March 25, 2001.

2005 — Bode Miller becomes the first American in 22 years to win skiing’s overall World Cup title. He finishes ahead of his only remaining challenger, Benjamin Raich of Austria, in the season’s final giant slalom to capture the crown.

2008 — The Houston Rockets are the third team in NBA history to win 20 straight games and ties for the second-longest winning streak with an 83-75 victory over the Atlanta Hawks.

2009 — Syracuse outlasts Connecticut in the second-longest Division I game ever played, capping a Big East tournament quarterfinal doubleheader in which the second- and third-ranked teams in the nation both lose. Andy Rautins hits a three-pointer 10 seconds into the sixth overtime to give the Orange their first lead since regulation and they go on to a 127-117 victory over the third-ranked Huskies. Much earlier in the evening, West Virginia beats No. 2 Pittsburgh 74-60.

2011 — The No. 21 Connecticut Huskies win their seventh Big East championship by winning five games in as many days. Kemba Walker shatters the tournament scoring record, getting 19 points in the ninth-seeded Huskies’ 69-66 victory over No. 14 Louisville.

2017 — Joakim Jensen finally ends what is believed to be the longest game in hockey history, scoring in the eighth overtime in the Norwegian League playoffs. More than 8 1/2 hours after the game started — and after 217 minutes, 14 seconds of play — Jensen breaks through to give the Storhamar Dragons a 2-1 victory over the Sparta Warriors. Storhamar leads the best-of-seven quarterfinal series 3-2.

2018 — Alex Ovechkin scores twice to reach 600 goals as the Washington Capitals beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2 in overtime. The Russian winger is the 20th player and fourth-fastest in NHL history to reach 600 goals.

2018 — Marc-Andre Fleury makes 38 saves to become the 13th goalie in NHL history with 400 wins, and Ryan Carpenter scores the winning goal with 2:40 left to lead the Vegas Golden Knights over the Philadelphia Flyers 3-2.

2020 — 2020 NCAA men’s basketball tournament is cancelled over concerns of the spread of COVID-19; first time ‘March Madness’ not held since it began in 1939; women’s tournament also cancelled.

2020 — NHL announces the pausing of the 2019-20 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Compiled by the Associated Press

Until next time…

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

The surge in oil prices triggered by the war in Iran is increasingly becoming a major concern for global central banks, which are closely monitoring the potential economic and financial consequences of the shock.

More than a week of conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supply routes and pushed crude prices sharply higher, raising fresh fears about inflation. For policymakers already grappling with fragile economic conditions, the oil spike presents a complex policy dilemma.

Historically, oil shocks have posed a difficult challenge for central banks. Rising energy prices can drive inflation higher while simultaneously weakening consumer spending and business activity by raising costs. In such circumstances, policymakers face an uncomfortable choice: tighten policy to control inflation or ease financial conditions to support economic growth and employment.

The current situation could potentially produce both outcomes at once, creating a scenario where inflation rises even as economic demand weakens a combination that complicates monetary policy decisions.

Inflation Versus Economic Growth

Central banks traditionally respond to inflationary pressures by raising interest rates or maintaining tighter monetary policy. Some policymakers argue that responding quickly to inflation triggered by an oil shock can prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched and reduce longer-term economic damage.

Others, however, advocate “looking through” temporary energy-driven price spikes, arguing that aggressive tightening could unnecessarily damage economic growth. This approach gained prominence after the pandemic, when many central banks initially viewed inflation as temporary a judgment widely criticised in hindsight.

The decision facing policymakers now depends on several uncertainties, including how long the conflict lasts, how severely energy supplies are disrupted, and whether governments intervene with subsidies or price caps to protect consumers.

Given these unknowns, many central banks may prefer to adopt a cautious approach, waiting to see how markets and economic conditions evolve before making significant policy adjustments.

Financial Stability Risks Enter the Picture

Beyond inflation and growth concerns, central banks must also consider a third responsibility that has gained prominence since the global financial crisis: financial stability.

Senior policymakers worry that the oil shock could expose vulnerabilities that have been building in global financial markets for years. A large macroeconomic disturbance involving energy prices, inflation, interest rates and currency volatility could trigger a broader financial stress event.

Much of the concern centres on the growing role of “shadow banking” institutions, financial intermediaries operating outside traditional banking regulation. These entities have become increasingly important providers of credit to companies and governments.

One major area of focus is the rapid expansion of private credit funds, which now manage more than $3 trillion globally. These funds allow asset managers to lend directly to businesses, often outside the scrutiny of public markets or traditional banking standards.

Regulators worry that during a major shock, investors could rapidly withdraw funds from these vehicles, potentially creating liquidity problems for borrowers and spillover risks for banks that help finance or manage the funds.

Pressure in Bond and Repo Markets

Another major source of concern lies in government bond markets, where highly leveraged hedge funds have become increasingly active. Many of these funds use repurchase agreements, or “repo” markets, to borrow money and finance large trades involving government bonds.

These strategies often rely on exploiting small price differences between cash bonds and futures contracts, but they involve substantial leverage. While such activity can help smooth government financing, it can also create systemic vulnerabilities during periods of market stress.

The Financial Stability Board, which monitors risks to the global financial system for the G20, warned earlier this year that sudden deleveraging in repo markets could disrupt sovereign bond markets.

More than $16 trillion in repo transactions backed by government bonds were outstanding last year, with about 60% concentrated in the United States. A sudden withdrawal of leveraged investors could therefore have significant ripple effects across global financial markets.

New Fragilities: Stablecoins and Technology Stocks

Regulators are also monitoring emerging risks linked to digital finance. Stablecoins cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies such as the U.S. dollar have grown rapidly and are increasingly investing reserves in government bonds.

With the stablecoin market now worth roughly $300 billion and expanding, any loss of confidence in these assets could trigger large-scale sales of the bonds that back them. Such an event could add stress to already volatile financial markets.

At the same time, some investors remain concerned about high valuations and heavy market concentration in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence sector, which could amplify market volatility during periods of economic uncertainty.

Analysis: Oil Shock Could Trigger Wider Financial Stress

The Iran war oil shock illustrates how geopolitical crises can interact with financial vulnerabilities to create broader economic risks.

Higher energy prices directly increase inflation and strain household finances. At the same time, they can force central banks to reconsider interest-rate policies, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs and greater volatility in financial markets.

Such conditions could expose weaknesses in highly leveraged sectors of the financial system, particularly in shadow banking, hedge funds and digital financial markets.

Although previous shocks including the economic turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not ultimately trigger a major financial crisis, policymakers remain cautious. The brief turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector in 2023 demonstrated how quickly financial stress can emerge when economic conditions shift.

If oil prices remain elevated and central banks are forced to respond aggressively, the resulting tightening of financial conditions could amplify existing vulnerabilities across markets.

For now, the disturbances appear manageable. But the combination of geopolitical conflict, energy market disruption and financial fragility ensures that central banks will continue to watch the situation with increasing concern.

With information from Reuters.

British Armed Forces assets continue to flow into Cyprus, as the United Kingdom bolsters its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean in response to the war in the Middle East. While the British government has not taken part in direct military action against targets within Iran, the expanding conflict has also put Cyprus under direct threat. Meanwhile, the rush to bolster the U.K.’s military capabilities in the region has highlighted some glaring deficits in the British Armed Forces.

The British military response to the conflict in the Middle East has centered on the island of Cyprus in the eastern Mediterranean, which has long been home to a U.K. Armed Forces presence. As well as providing a ‘landing pad’ for British forces operating in the region, for example, during the counter-ISIS mission, Cyprus has long been used by the British for training and exercises. The so-called Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus comprise the airbase of RAF Akrotiri and Dhekelia Station (a former airfield), which have been in British hands since the Republic of Cyprus was established in 1960.

Fighter assets

Before the Iran war began, eight Royal Air Force Typhoon multirole fighters were already deployed to Akrotiri, where they were still operating on the U.K. counter-ISIS mission, Operation Shader. Other U.K. Armed Forces personnel were also in Iraq under Shader.

In the wider region, there was also an existing RAF Typhoon footprint in Qatar, where a squadron of the jets is operated jointly with the Qatar Emir Air Force. This unit was strengthened in January, when another four Typhoons deployed there from the United Kingdom, specifically for air defense.

In February, six RAF F-35B Lightnings were sent to Akrotiri in Cyprus, joining the Typhoons already deployed there.

As Iran and its proxies have launched drones and missiles at countries across the region, the U.K. Armed Forces have been active in intercepting drones (and potentially also cruise missiles).

The real wakeup call came overnight on March 1, when a drone launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon hit Akrotiri. There were no reported casualties and only “minimal damage,” although this was, significantly, an impact that tore a hole in the hangar used by the U.S. Air Force U-2 Dragon Lady spy planes that are also regularly detached to Cyprus. Two more drones heading toward Cyprus were reportedly intercepted the same day.

Another two drones heading for Cyprus were intercepted on March 4, according to a Cypriot government spokesperson.

The U.K. Ministry of Defense has confirmed that the four Typhoons in Qatar, as well as the Cyprus-based F-35Bs, have since been active in bringing down hostile drones. The F-35B achieved its first air-to-air victories in British hands when one of the fighters shot down a pair of Iranian drones, announced on March 3.

The pilot involved in that historic engagement was a Royal Navy aviator embedded within the RAF’s joint-force No. 617 Squadron, the “Dambusters.”

The pilot fired two infrared-guided Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (ASRAAM) in the space of 20 minutes, each from a range of less than a mile, to destroy the Shahed-type drones over Jordan. They subsequently told The Telegraph:

“Your adrenaline is pumping pretty hard, you’re working down low at night above the desert in unfamiliar terrain. Emotionally, those things get pushed aside in the moment. It’s not until after landing that it begins to settle in.”

Lt. Col. Mike Carty, commanding officer of No. 617 Squadron, added: “The tempo of flying here is greater than anything the Lightning Force has embarked upon before. The sheer amount of sorties and flying hours is quite high. People are being stretched and working incredibly hard, but nobody is under any particular strain. We are set up here to be able to sustain this.”

The continued threat posed by Iranian drones and cruise missiles has also seen the decision made to send another four Typhoons to Qatar. RAF Typhoons have also successfully shot down drones targeting Bahrain, Jordan, and Qatar.

Destroyer deployment

The United Kingdom has also elected to beef up its defensive capabilities in the eastern Mediterranean with the deployment of a Type 45 destroyer. This was the subject of considerable debate before it was finally announced that HMS Dragon would sail for the region. The warship departed yesterday for a voyage that will take around 10 days.

However, the Type 45 is the United Kingdom’s most balanced and capable air defense platform, at least against drones and cruise missiles.

HMS Dragon has begun her journey to the eastern Mediterranean to join the UK’s defensive operations in the region.

Hundreds of well-wishers, including loved ones of the ship’s crew, lined the seawall as the ship sailed from Portsmouth.

🔗https://t.co/xQqazM6Mcd pic.twitter.com/ScskyAu0CF

— Royal Navy (@RoyalNavy) March 10, 2026

The basic Type 45’s weapons fit includes Aster 30 missiles fired from the Sea Viper system, which represents the Royal Navy’s outer air defense layer. According to the Royal Navy, the Sea Viper is able to track “hundreds” of potential threats to an individual ship or task group at ranges up to 250 miles, using Aster 30 missiles to eliminate them when they close to “around 70 miles.” Other sources suggest the Mach-3 missile has a range of more than 75 miles.

There is also the Aster 15 with a range of around 18 miles, optimizing it for close-in and local-area and point defense. For aerial threats even closer to the warship, the Type 45 can call upon a pair of Phalanx close-in weapon systems (CIWS) armed with 20mm ‘Gatling’ cannons, 30mm guns, and various machine guns.

When it comes to ballistic missile defense, the Type 45 is much more limited, however.

While HMS Diamond did shoot down one of the Houthis’ anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) in 2024, this is an easier threat to deal with than the medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) that Iran is currently launching toward Israel.

“Smoke” (infrared) decoy employment aftermath seen from HMS Diamond’s bridge during the ballistic missile engagement. One of the decoy launchers can be seen beneath the 30mm gun sponson, loaded with the by now familiar mix including Chemring Large Payload Carriers. pic.twitter.com/1TgWrgrDzP

— Gabriele Molinelli (@Gabriel64869839) April 26, 2024

Also in 2024, the U.K. Ministry of Defense announced that it would invest around $515 million to upgrade Sea Viper, making it “even more lethal against new and growing threats from hostile drones and missiles.”

Under the upgrade, the Aster 30 missile will be modernized to improve its capabilities against ASBMs, with an enhanced warhead plus new guidance and seeker software. The upgrade will also address the Sampson multi-function radar as well as the command-and-control system and combat management system.

A second phase will see the evaluation of a new missile, the Aster 30 Block 1NT, currently under development by France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. This missile features a new seeker, which would further improve the ballistic missile defense capabilities of the Type 45. In particular, Block 1NT will be better equipped to intercept MRBMs carrying maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), which you can read more about here.

However, these upgrades are yet to be fielded.

More generally, there have long been questions about the availability of the Type 45s, despite their undoubted capabilities. These six vessels are still very modern, but they have spent a notably long time in maintenance. Typically, only two are actually available to deploy at any given time. With one of the warships normally earmarked for the North Atlantic and Russia, and another needed to escort one of the U.K. aircraft carriers when that is at sea, there is very little capacity left to play with.

This also brings us to the question of the two British aircraft carriers of the Queen Elizabeth class. With the war entering its second week, HMS Prince of Wales appeared poised to deploy, with the crew at five days’ notice to sail. Earlier this week, however, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman gave the following statement: “HMS Prince of Wales has always been on very high readiness. The MoD is increasing the preparedness of the carrier — reducing the time it would take to set sail for any deployment — but there is no decision taken to deploy her.”

Critics of the hugely costly aircraft carrier program might ask why these warships, which are designed to respond to just this kind of crisis, are being held back.

U.S. President Donald Trump also used the lack of carrier deployment as a stick with which to beat the U.K. government. On his Truth Social platform, Trump said that the United States did not need Britain’s carriers in the conflict and suggested they would have been useful had they deployed before the war began.

Short-range air defense

To help cover short-range air defense over Cyprus, the United Kingdom has deployed two Royal Navy Wildcat helicopters armed with Martlet missiles. On the plus side, each helicopter can carry up to 20 of these missiles, which are ideal for bringing down drones. On the other hand, the missiles have a range of only around five miles, and with just two ‘cabs’ available, the Wildcat deployment is really only capable of providing limited point defense.

With that in mind, it’s somewhat surprising that the British Army hasn’t deployed any of its Sky Sabre short-range air defense systems to Cyprus, or anywhere else in the region. The Sky Sabre is intended to bring down aircraft, as well as drones and cruise missiles. However, it’s unclear how many batteries are currently deployable. One is stationed in the Falkland Islands, and another has been deployed on NATO’s eastern flank, in Poland, and the 12 batteries on order are still being delivered.

The Sky Sabre fires the Common Anti-Air Modular Missile, or CAMM, also known as the Land Ceptor. The same CAMM missile is also used in naval applications — including aboard Royal Navy warships — as the Sea Ceptor. Fitted with an active-radar seeker, the CAMM is derived from the aforementioned ASRAAM. The CAAM has a reported range of more than 15 miles and is said to be able to tackle a wide range of threats, including low-observable targets, high-speed missiles, drones, and precision-guided air-to-ground weapons.

Meanwhile, the ability to surveil the airspace around Cyprus received an upgrade yesterday with the arrival of a Royal Navy Merlin HM2 Crowsnest helicopter, with airborne surveillance and control (ASaC) capabilities.

The Merlin brings a look-down sensor capability, making it something of a ‘pocket’ version of the E-7 Wedgetail. From altitude, the radar has an excellent field of view to spot low and slow-flying targets, even if they are relatively small. This makes it especially useful for tracking drones and cruise missiles.

Other British counter-drone units have also been active in the wider region.

Few details have been provided, but these are likely to consist of non-kinetic systems (like the ORCUS) and man-portable air defense systems (like the Starstreak missile) used by troops who have a limited presence in Jordan and Iraq, where they have been since before the Iran war began.

Overall, though, the conflict has highlighted the somewhat limited nature of U.K. ground-based air defense capabilities.

More generally, the deployments so far, in a purely defensive capacity, have raised concerns about the breadth, depth, and readiness of U.K. military power and its relevance in international affairs.

The question of “going kinetic”

The United Kingdom initially denied permission for the U.S. military to use its airbases — including Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean — for strikes against Iran, as we discussed at the time. This was soon revised, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying his government had agreed to a U.S. request to use British military bases for “defensive” strikes.

Were the British stance to change, it is questionable whether RAF jets, as currently deployed, would be able to make a significant contribution, based on their small numbers, their other taskings, and the long distance to targets in Iran.

According to an assessment by the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think-tank, realistically, the fighter force at Akrotiri would only have been able to fly 28 strike sorties against Iran, had they been committed to Operation Epic Fury. This is very much a best-case scenario, and would also have required significant tanker support.

A British offensive campaign against Iran would otherwise rely primarily upon the Royal Navy, which operates nuclear-powered attack submarines that can launch Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM). However, this is a capability that has suffered from poor availability in recent years. Currently, only one of five in-service Astute class submarines, HMS Anson, is at sea, and it was in the Indo-Pacific region as of January.

So far, however, the U.K. government has held back from committing to any kind of direct offensive action against Iran, although there have been voices raised across the political spectrum urging that the United Kingdom should back the United States more actively, including taking part in strikes. Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, berated Starmer this week for not doing more to “stop the people who are attacking us” and said the U.K. Armed Forces should “do more than catch the arrows” and should “catch the archer” — a reference to striking missile and drone facilities directly.

For the time being, the U.K. Armed Forces, ravaged by decades of post-Cold War cuts, are bringing some useful but fairly limited in capacity air defense capabilities to the region. Should the U.K. government’s policy regarding Iran become aligned with that of the United States, then much more serious questions will be answered about the relevance and resilience of British military power in an operation of this kind.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

As the Operation Epic Fury joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran moves into its 12th day, Tehran is intensifying its campaign against shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. At least three commercial ships were struck today, according to a British monitoring organization.

Each were hit in separate incidents by an “unknown projectile,” according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a monitoring agency that is part of the U.K. Royal Navy. One was a cargo ship traveling north of Oman. Another was a bulk carrier hit north of Dubai. The third was a container vessel struck near Ras al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, The Washington Post noted.

Since Epic Fury was launched on Feb. 28, UKMTO “has received 17 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz (SOH) and Gulf of Oman,” the organization stated. That figure includes 13 attacks and four suspicious incident reports.

Iran said it is increasing these attacks to serve as an economic weapon against the U.S., Israel and allies.

The U.S. “will not be able to control oil prices,” the spokesperson for Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters vowed on Wednesday.

“We won’t allow even one liter of oil to reach the U.S., Zionists and their partners,”  Ebrahim Zolfaqari proclaimed. “Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be a legitimate target.”

“Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilized,” Zolfaqari added.

As one example of market volatility, Brent Crude was trading at just over $90 a barrel as of Wednesday morning Eastern Day Light time, according to OilPrice.com. The prices have fluctuated wildly, surging to a recent high of more than $116 a barrel on March 8 and dropping to a little more than $84 a barrel yesterday.

🚨Iran is threatening to not allow ships through the Strait of Hormuz, also saying they will force oil to $200 per barrel.

“Not a single liter of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the U.S., Israel, or their partners.”

pic.twitter.com/AdabOT8t3Q

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 11, 2026

Even as it cuts off the Strait for others, Iran is “exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers,” The Wall Street Journal reported.

Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, showing it is in control of a strategic waterway that it has closed off to the rest of the region’s oil producers https://t.co/CeZTClmHBa

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 11, 2026

The world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Qatar hasn’t exported a shipment for five days, Bloomberg News reported. It marks the longest streak in data going back to 2008.

“A loaded tanker hasn’t left the Ras Laffan facility in five days,” according to a Bloomberg analysis of Kpler ship-tracking data. “No LNG ship traversed the Strait of Hormuz after Feb. 28, when the US and Israel began strikes on Iran.”

The unprecedented closure of the liquefaction plant, which supplies nearly 20% of the world’s LNG, came after an Iranian drone attack early last week — resulting in a jump in gas prices in Europe and Asia, the news organization noted. Ras Laffan did load a handful of shipments after stopping output, likely using fuel from storage tanks, the last of which was on Friday.

The world’s biggest LNG export plant in Qatar hasn’t exported a shipment for five days — the longest streak in data going back to 2008 — threatening to further boost prices for the fuel https://t.co/BKFTpIV0dH

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

Two pipelines were built – one in Saudi Arabia, the other in UAE – just to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict, The Wall Street Journal posited, has highlighted their importance since they are the only ways to get a significant amount of oil out of the Persian Gulf and into world markets.

The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly made Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline one of the most critical pieces of infrastructure in the world https://t.co/6bwxev9vKc

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) March 11, 2026

Iran’s closure of the Strait to most foreign shipping has thrown the world energy market into chaos, causing oil and gas prices to fluctuate dramatically.

“Japan, Germany and Austria will release oil from their strategic reserves in response to disruptions in the supply from the Middle East, officials in those countries said on Wednesday,” according to the Post. “They made the announcements hours before a meeting of leaders of the Group of 7 industrialized nations, including the United States, to discuss jointly releasing oil in consultation with the International Energy Agency.”

Japan will begin releasing oil from its reserves as early as Monday to offset disruptions in Middle Eastern supply, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Wednesday in Tokyo.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to address the supply disruption triggered by the Iran war, the largest such action in the organization’s history, CNBC reported.

“The IEA did not set out a timeline for when the stocks would hit the market,” the news outlet noted. “It said that the reserves would be released over a timeframe that is appropriate to the circumstances of each of its 32 member countries.”

The U.S., meanwhile, has yet to tap into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a network of salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana that can hold up to 714 million barrels of crude.

PARIS/LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency is to recommend the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest such move in IEA history, to try to restrain soaring crude prices amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

Iran is not preventing all ships from passing through the Strait. Tehran has agreed to provide Bangladeshi oil vessels with safe passage. The move comes as the Bangladesh government has intensified efforts to maintain a stable fuel supply through multiple strategic measures amid escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Bangladesh has sought assurances from Iran for the safe passage of its oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG)-carrying vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Iran has officially agreed to grant safe passage to Bangladeshi oil and LNG vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Under the new agreement, Bangladeshi ships must notify Iranian authorities before entering the strategic waterway to ensure secure transit.

The move comes… pic.twitter.com/24spSuaLKl

— Middle East Monitor (@MiddleEastMnt) March 11, 2026

Some vessels are also using their AIS system to identify as Chinese owned, shipping expert Sal Mercogliano noted. Iran’s closure of the Strait does not pertain to Chinese-owned ships.

The Marshal Islands-bulker KSL Laiyang is running the Strait.

She is broadcasting on AIS “China Owners & Crew”.

This is EXACTLY what we saw happen in the Red Sea against the Houthis. Expect to see more of this. pic.twitter.com/LSCESnEDKI

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 10, 2026

The New York Times claimed that Iran’s ongoing attacks on shipping, as well as its continuing missile and drone barrages are an example of how the Trump administration miscalculated Iran’s response to Epic Fury.

The Trump administration has said it will send U.S. Navy warships to escort commercial vessels through the Strait, but that plan has yet to be implemented. Such a deployment would put American warships at far greater risk than they are facing now at standoff distances from Iran. It remains unclear how much longer Epic Fury will continue. The longer it does, however, the more Iran can bring economic pain around the globe with even just threats against Strait shipping. The Iranian attacks have led to Trump proposing that the U.S. provide political risk insurance for seaborne trade in the Gulf. “However, Lloyd’s of London, the heart of maritime insurance globally, emphasizes it has not stopped providing contracts to those who ask – although at the right tariff,” The Guardian reported.

Though no escorts have been set up, the U.S. is continuing to strike Iran’s Navy, including the sinking of the last of Iran’s Soleimani class catamaran warships, the head of U.S. Central Command said in a video statement on Wednesday morning.

“To date, we have struck more than 5,500 targets inside Iran, including more than 60 ships using a variety of precision weapon systems,” Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video. “Just yesterday, we had strike waves nearly every hour from different locations and directions going into Iran. We also took out the last of four Soleimani class warships. That’s an entire class of Iranian ships now out of the fight.”

Cooper did not name which of the catamarans was hit, but the video shows one from the Soleimani class and one from a smaller class. The hull number on the smaller ship – PC313-01 – indicates it was the IRIS Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. The ship was unveiled in a ceremony at Bandar Abbas in January 2024, the Iranian Press TV news outlet reported at the time.

U.S. Army Sgt. First Class Cory Hicks told ABC News about the Iranian drone attack on a command center in Kuwait that killed six soldiers on March 1.

Sgt. First Class Cory Hicks described the horrific moment a drone struck a U.S. command center in Kuwait and killed six service members: “I turned to my right, and that’s when it blew up and just blew the whole building apart.”

What You Need to Know is streaming on @DisneyPlus.… pic.twitter.com/7Zf0WQLYIp

— ABC News (@ABC) March 11, 2026

The deadly attack was more severe than previously known, with dozens of troops suffering injuries that included brain trauma, burns and severe injuries from shrapnel, according to CBS News.

NEWS via @CBSNews: An Iranian drone attack in Kuwait that killed U.S. service members in the early hours of the war with Iran was more severe than previously known, with dozens suffering injuries that included brain trauma, shrapnel trauma and burns, per sources. More than 30…

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) March 11, 2026

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is “safe and sound” despite war injuries, Yousef Pezeshkian, a government adviser and the son of Iran’s president, claimed on Wednesday.

“I heard news that Mr Mojtaba Khamenei had been injured. I have asked some friends who had connections,” Pezeshkian stated on Telegram. “They told me that, thank God, he is safe and sound.”

State television had called Khamenei, 56, a “wounded veteran of the Ramadan war” but never specified his injury.

BREAKING Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei is “safe and sound” despite reports of an injury during the war with Israel and the United States, the son of the Iranian president said on Wednesday pic.twitter.com/97ofF4dS1G

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 11, 2026

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to attack “economic centers and banks” related to United States and Israeli entities in the region after what it called an attack on an Iranian bank, Al Jazeera reported.

A spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, a group described as IRGC-owned by the United Nations, said on Wednesday that “the enemy left our hands open to targeting economic centres and banks belonging to the United States and the Zionist regime in the region.”

To the people of Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait: Do not remain within one kilometer of banks

Khatam al‑Anbiya Headquarters spokesperson: After the U.S. and Israeli attack on an Iranian bank, we are now free to target U.S. and Israeli economic centers and banks across the region.

— IRAN MILITARY ☫ (@IranMilitaryEN) March 11, 2026

The warning came after a reported attack on a Bank Sepah branch north of Iran, which is said to have killed many putting in extra hours ahead of the Persian New Year.

The Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense HQs warns people in the entire region to stay away for 1km from banks after American-Zionists attacked a Bank Sepah branch in north of Tehran, killing a lot of personnel working extra hours ahead of Persian New Year. pic.twitter.com/JYcAaCQlLI

— Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی 🟩 ☫ 🟥 (@fresh_sadegh) March 11, 2026

Iranian officials claimed to have hit several other U.S. targets in the region on Wednesday.

(Reuters) – The Iranian military said on Tuesday it had launched missiles at a U.S. base in northern Iraq, the U.S. naval headquarters for the Middle East in Bahrain, and at Be’er Ya’akov city in central Israel.

Explosions rang out in Bahrain, while in Dubai four people were…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 11, 2026

IDF Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir claimed that “many thousands” of Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed so far in this war.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir says “many thousands” of Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes in Iran, warning that “no one is immune.”

“We are in a campaign that is deepening the damage to the Iranian regime and its foundations and pushing… pic.twitter.com/0C5XvjBFTy

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 11, 2026

The IDF released new video showing airstrikes on what it claims were Iranian troops preparing to launch drones.

The IDF releases footage showing airstrikes on Iranian soldiers who were preparing to launch drones at Israel from western Iran this week.

According to the military, the Iranian soldiers were identified on Monday at a drone launching site. A short while later, an Israeli Air… pic.twitter.com/XRWXO7YVaq

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 11, 2026

The IDF completed another wave of strikes in Dahiyeh in Beirut against what it claims were Hezbollah command centers and weapons storage sites. IDF said it issued a warning to residents before the attacks and also struck a Hezbollah command post in the coastal area of Tyre.

צה”ל השלים גל תקיפות נוסף בביירות

הבוקר , צה”ל השלים גל תקיפות נוסף בדאחייה שבביירות נגד מפקדות טרור ואתרים בהם אוכסנו אמצעי לחימה של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה.

בנוסף, צה”ל תקף אתמול , מפקדה של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה במרחב צור שבלבנון.

טרם התקיפות ננקטו צעדים כדי לצמצם את הסיכוי… pic.twitter.com/9nx1X4ZCJ2

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) March 11, 2026

The IDF justified the strike by claiming the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy is hiding missiles, drones and other weapons in the heart of the Dahieh neighborhood in Beirut.

INTELLIGENCE REVEALS: Hezbollah is hiding its strategic weapons in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut, beneath the residential buildings of Lebanese residents. These are missiles, drones and additional weapons funded by the Iranian terror regime and designed to harm Israeli…

— LTC Nadav Shoshani (@LTC_Shoshani) March 10, 2026

The owner of this white pickup may be the luckiest person in the Middle East. Video emerged on social media showing Lebanese Army troops removing an unexploded bomb from the vehicle’s cargo bed.

Faced with growing threats from Hezbollah, Zamir ordered the Golani Brigade to be transferred from the Southern Command to operations in the Northern Command sector.

Zamir added that a decision will be made regarding additional reinforcements.

🚨NEW: The IDF says Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has ordered significant reinforcements to Israel’s northern front, shifting the Golani Brigade combat team from the south to Northern Command following a new operational assessment.

The move comes amid developments in…

— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) March 11, 2026

In a post on X, the UAE Defense Ministry (MoD) said its air defenses “are currently dealing with missile attacks and incoming drones originating from Iran, and the Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, as well as fighter jets intercepting drones and loitering munitions.”

تتعامل حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية مع اعتداءات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة قادمة من إيران وتؤكد وزارة الدفاع أن الأصوات المسموعة في مناطق متفرقة من الدولة هي نتيجة اعتراض كل من منظومات الدفاع الجوي للصواريخ البالستية، والمقاتلات للطائرات المسيرة والجوالة.

UAE air defences are… pic.twitter.com/aa5b1gw7vh

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 11, 2026

Reuters posted a photograph on X of a building in Manama, Bahrain, reportedly damaged by an Iranian drone strike.

A building damaged in a reported Iranian drone strike, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Seef, Manama, Bahrain, March 10, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer pic.twitter.com/luPTavYyJT

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

With Bahrain also being battered by Iranian attacks, Gulf Air has relocated its fleet of aircraft from there to Saudi Arabia, according to Al Jazeera.

Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi “called on regional Muslims and countries to reveal the locations of U.S. and Israeli military assets to enable Tehran to conduct more accurate attacks,” the Jerusalem Post reported, citing official Iranian media.

Shekarchi also framed the request as a way to ensure the safety of the people in the region.

“I call on the Muslim people of the region and the countries of the region to show us the hideouts of US and Zionist forces so that they themselves will not be harmed, and so that we can strike them more precisely,” Shekarchi proclaimed.

Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi called on regional Muslims and countries to reveal the locations of US and Israeli military assets to enable Tehran to conduct more accurate attacks.https://t.co/YSSDWmIZ8s

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 11, 2026

In the wake of the joint U.S.-Israeli attack, The New York Times “has identified at least 17 damaged U.S. sites and other installations, several of which have been struck more than once since the war began,” the publication reported. “Our analysis is based on high-resolution, commercial satellite imagery, verified social media videos and statements by U.S. officials and Iranian state media.”

U.S. Air Force maintainers can be seen in the X post below loading weapons onto B-1B Lancer bombers, which have arrived at Fairford Air Base in the U.K.

US Airforce ground crew work under hatches of a B1 Lancer at RAF Fairford today. What appear to be cruise missiles sit by the warplane. Three B1 bombers returned this morning, on what is believed to be the first attack on Iran from a British base during this conflict. @AJENews pic.twitter.com/80YkxHL5rT

— Richard Gaisford (@richardgaisford) March 11, 2026

Romanian President Nicusor Dan said that U.S. refueling planes, monitoring equipment and satellite communications systems can use his country’s military bases.

BUCHAREST, March 11 (Reuters) – American refueling planes, monitoring equipment and satellite communications could use Romanian military bases during the U.S.’ offensive in Iran, Romanian President Nicusor Dan said on Wednesday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 11, 2026

Turkey has reportedly deployed an ASELSAN’s ŞAHİN 40mm anti-drone system to Northern Cyprus, where it is now operational to defend against low-flying mini and micro UAVs using airburst smart grenades.

Türkiye deployed ASELSAN’s ŞAHİN 40mm anti-drone system to Northern Cyprus, where it is now operational to defend against low-flying mini and micro UAVs using airburst smart grenades. pic.twitter.com/HT641qe6w7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims that Russia may send troops to Iran. That would be in addition to the support Moscow is already providing in the form of drones and air defenses, Zelensky said. He added that Russia will likely send missiles in the not-far-off future.

Ukraine, which has long sought interceptors to help fend off waves of Russian missile and drone attacks, took to social media to note the discrepancy in how much it has been supplied over the course of four years versus how much the U.S. and allies have used during 11 days of Epic Fury.

800 Patriot missiles were used for air defense in just 3 days in the Middle East. Ukraine received 600 in 4 years of full-scale war.

Russia, Iran and North Korea form a new Axis of Evil. Ukraine was the first to confront this Axis. We continue to fight, but we need support.

The… pic.twitter.com/wUQVn9gSVK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 10, 2026

Add Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to the list of world leaders proclaiming that an Ayatollah-led regime in Iran should never obtain nuclear weapons.

Italy’s Meloni on Iran:

We cannot afford an Ayatollah regime in possession of a nuclear weapon, combined, moreover, with a missile capability that could soon be able to directly strike Italy and Europe. pic.twitter.com/gdQE6HlckA

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

UPDATES:

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.

UPDATE: 5:11 PM EST –

Video has emerged showing a reported attack on an oil tanker near Iraq. Information at this point is scarce. The Ambrey martime security firm said it is investigating the matter.

The U.S. used as much as $4 billion worth of munitions in the first 72 hours of its attacks against Iran, including about 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors, Bloomberg News reported, citing estimates from German defense giant Rheinmetall AG.

“The numbers, released in the company’s earnings presentation on Wednesday, were drawn from ‘publicly available sources and in-house assumptions,’ the slides said,” according to the news outlet. “Other reports have put the munitions cost for the first two days of the conflict higher, at as much as $5.6 billion.”

The US used as much as $4 billion worth of munitions in the first 72 hours of its attacks against Iran, including about 400 cruise missiles and 800 air defense interceptors, according to estimates from German defense giant Rheinmetall https://t.co/7xiR8WNbtM

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

Trump said that he picked the name Epic Fury from a list of about 20 and that the U.S. has already won.

“You know, you can only do it if you win — and we’ve won,” the American leader proclaimed. “Let me say: we’ve won. You never like to say it too early, but we won the bet in the first hour. It was over.”

Trump on Iran:

Operation Epic Fury — is that a great name? Well, it’s only good if you win.

You know, you can only do it if you win — and we’ve won. Let me say: we’ve won. You never like to say it too early, but we won the bet in the first hour. It was over.

They gave me a… pic.twitter.com/AJOEGY08Eq

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 11, 2026

Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system “could not stop about half the 100 rockets Hezbollah launched at Israel just a few hours ago,” New York Post reporter Caitlin Doornbos posted on X.

Exclusive: The Iron Dome could not stop about half the 100 rockets Hezbollah launched at Israel just a few hours ago.

— Caitlin Doornbos (@CaitlinDoornbos) March 11, 2026

The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – “agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf,” according to a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.

(Reuters) – The leaders of the G7 group of nations – the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany and France – agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf, said a statement from the G7 Presidency on Wednesday.…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 11, 2026

Despite threats from the regime to stay home, anti-government protestors are reportedly continuing to take to the streets in Iran demanding change.

For 12 consecutive night, without missing a single day, Iranian people have hit the streets to express their anger over Israel/US attacks on Iran & its leader.

They express support for armed forces & demand harsh revenge.

Video from Urumia, 11 PM. https://t.co/GfIhLwFnzZ pic.twitter.com/w0RAIdrxXm

— Arya Yadeghaar (@AryJeay) March 11, 2026

The U.K. Defense Ministry (MoD) provided its latest update on Middle East operations.

The UAE MoD said its air defenses “dealt with 6 ballistic missiles, 7 cruise missiles, and 39 drones coming from Iran” today. “Since the start of the brazen Iranian aggression, UAE air defenses have dealt with 268 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,514 drones.”

الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية تتعامل مع 6 صواريخ باليستية و7 صواريخ جوالة و 39 طائرة مسيرة.

تعاملت الدفاعات الجوية الإماراتية (11 مارس 2026) مع 6 صواريخ باليستية، و7 صواريخ جوالة، و 39 طائرة مسيرة قادمة من إيران.

ومنذ بدء الاعتداء الإيراني السافر تعاملت الدفاعات الجوية… pic.twitter.com/8BV5VPkwaE

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 4:48 PM EST –

The IRGC posted video it claims shows missile launches toward U.S., Israeli and allied military bases housing American forces in the region.

Iran’s IRGC published footage of its missile launches towards “Israel” and US bases.

The missiles include Qadr, Emad, Kheybar Shekan, and Fattah missiles against targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and US bases in the region such as the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan & Prince Sultan… pic.twitter.com/Jkb8JRO04q

— Arya Yadeghaar (@AryJeay) March 11, 2026

Kuwaiti air defenses are currently confronting hostile missile and drone attacks, the nation’s army announced on X. 

“The General Staff of the Army notes that if explosion sounds are heard, they are the result of air defense systems intercepting the hostile attacks,” the announcement added.

تتصدى حالياً الدفاعات الجوية الكويتية لهجمات صاروخية وطائرات مسيرة معادية.

تنوه رئاسة الأركان العامة للجيش أن أصوات الانفجارات إن سمعت فهي نتيجة اعتراض منظومات الدفاع الجوي للهجمات المعادية.

يرجى من الجميع التقيد بتعليمات الأمن والسلامة الصادرة عن الجهات المختصة.… pic.twitter.com/vFiXjuXdXP

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 4:18 PM EST –

Three Ukrainian teams of military personnel and engineers have gone to the Middle East to help the U.S. and allies in the fight against Iran, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on X.

After four years of fending off daily bombardment by Russian missiles and drones, Ukraine has a lot of hardearned expertise to share.

Three Ukrainian teams have gone to the Middle East. Strong teams – with experts, military personnel, and engineers. The military are already communicating and working today. The NSDC Secretary, Rustem Umerov, has arrived in the UAE today to discuss areas of cooperation. He will…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 11, 2026

Al Jazeera said a senior Iranian military official claimed that if “Washington commits a strategic mistake, another strait will be in a situation similar to the Strait of Hormuz,” the publication posted on X. “The region may enter a regional war soon, and we still have many cards to play. Any American mistake will complicate the situation in the region, and Iran has phased and graduated military plans.”

#عاجل| مسؤول عسكري إيراني رفيع للجزيرة: إذا ارتكبت واشنطن خطأ استراتيجيا فإن مضيقا آخر سيكون في وضع مماثل لمضيق هرمز
– المنطقة قد تدخل حربا إقليمية قريبا ولا تزال لدينا أوراق عديدة لاستعمالها
– أي خطأ أمريكي سيعقد الوضع في المنطقة ولدى #إيران خطط عسكرية مرحلية ومتدرجة pic.twitter.com/gLm38EUy4D

— قناة الجزيرة (@AJArabic) March 11, 2026

Video is emerging on social media claiming to show Tehran under a large drone attack.

Holy sh*t

Drones are flying all over Tehran tonight hitting basij/IRGC stations

Israel is neutralizing the regime’s crackdown machine…it’s finally happening pic.twitter.com/Yz7Nj3sdNW

— Throwback Iran (@Tarikh_Eran) March 11, 2026

Despite what appears to be a coordinated Israel attack on Basij checkpoints in Tehran, the regime is reportedly keeping a tight lid on any potential anti-government protests, journalist Nilo Tabrizy said a source told her.

“The government constantly sends threatening [text] messages to everyone. It says that if you come to the streets to protest, you will be considered an Israeli soldier and will be killed.”

A source in Iran told me about the continued repression by state security forces despite waves of heavy air strikes over their city:

“The government constantly sends threatening [text] messages to everyone. It says that if you come to the streets to protest, you will be…

— Nilo Tabrizy (@ntabrizy) March 11, 2026

Meanwhile, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament is urging pro-government crowds to remain on the streets.

“Dear Iranian nation, to whom I would sacrifice my life a thousand times!” MB Ghalibaf stated on X. “Your presence in the streets has bewildered and enraged the enemy. This humble soldier of yours has three requests from you: the streets, the streets, the streets. Your children in the armed forces have taken their lives in hand to defend #Iran; strengthen their backs by holding the streets firm.”

ملت عزیز ایران که جانم هزاران بار فدای شما!

حضور شما در خیابان‌ها دشمن را گیج و عصبانی کرده است.

این سرباز کوچکتان سه درخواست از شما دارد: خیابان، خیابان، خیابان.

فرزندان شما درنیروهای مسلح جان خود را برای دفاع از #ایران در دست گرفته‌اند، پشت آنها را با حفظ خیابان محکم کنید.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 11, 2026

Alarms have again sounded in Bahrain, as the nation braces for another wave of Iranian attacks, officials there claim.

تم إطلاق صافرة الإنذار ،نرجو من المواطنين والمقيمين الهدوء والتوجه لأقرب مكان آمن ومتابعة الأخبار عبر القنوات الرسمية

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) March 11, 2026

Kuwait National Guard bomb squad engineers have destroyed a drone warhead that fell inside a fuel tank, spokesman Jadaan Al-Fadhel said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that no injuries were reported during the operation.

Kuwait National Guard bomb squad engineers have destroyed a drone warhead that fell inside a fuel tank, Spokesman Jadaan Al-Fadhel said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that no injuries were reported during the operation.

The bomb squads worked for seven days to unload the… pic.twitter.com/dj03OwacvK

— KUWAIT TIMES (@kuwaittimesnews) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 3:45 EST –

During a visit to Thermo Fisher Scientific in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Trump said that for Iran, it’s a “war.” But for America, it’s “easier than we thought.”

During a site visit to Thermo Fisher Scientific in Cincinnati on Wednesday, President Trump told reporters the U.S. military operation in Iran is “both” a “little excursion” and a “war.”

“For them it’s a war,” Trump said. “For us it’s turned out to be easier than we thought.”… pic.twitter.com/RkRZxWuRfN

— ABC News (@ABC) March 11, 2026

The U.S. president also claimed that more than two dozen Iranian mine boats have been destroyed during Epic Fury.

“They started talking about mines. So we hit 28 mine ships as of this moment,” Trump proclaimed. “Twenty-eight. Like, using the same weapon — the exact same weapon that we use against the drug dealers in the water. We have — as an example, we had tremendous drugs pouring in through the water — through the sea. And now we have almost none. It’s down 97%.”

U.S. President Donald J. Trump tells reporters that 28 mine-laying vessels operated by the Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) have now been targeted and destroyed:

“They started talking about mines. So we hit 28 mine ships as of this moment.… pic.twitter.com/znwGK9sydD

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2026

Iran deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The move is likely to complicate reopening the waterway — an important route for shipping oil and liquefied natural gas.

🚨 Western sources in a conversation with N12: “The Iranians have already laid more than 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz and intend to lay more. Both the entry and exit routes are blocked – to put pressure on us. They have created a bypass route and allow only those they want to…

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) March 11, 2026

Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast, Bloomberg News is reporting. The move is seen as “a long-shot bid to help ease the global crude supply crunch spurred by his war with Iran,” according to the outlet.

“Trump is set to soon summon authorities under the Defense Production Act to preempt state laws and ease permitting for Sable Offshore Corp., a Houston-based company looking to restart significant production from a cluster of offshore platforms in California,” Bloomberg added. “The plan was described by a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because it’s not yet public.”

Trump is preparing to invoke Cold War-era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the southern California coast, a long-shot bid to help ease the global crude supply crunch spurred by his war with Iran. https://t.co/uopErGQnUh

— Bloomberg (@business) March 11, 2026

The fire at Oman’s Salahah Port seems to be intensifying. The port was attacked by Iran earlier on Wednesday.

Several security forces and members of Iran’s paramilitary Basij force were killed by Israeli drones in Tehran today, according to the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency.

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency has reported that several security forces and members of the paramilitary Basij force were killed in Tehran today, accusing Israel of targeting them with drones.

— Ghoncheh Habibiazad | غنچه (@GhonchehAzad) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 2:53 PM EST –

Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets from Lebanon and Iran fired several ballistic missiles at the area, according to Israeli media.

The Israeli military later confirmed that it didn’t intercept some of the projectiles, adding that rescue services and emergency teams are “currently operating at the impact sites.”

Video has emerged showing an Iranian Shahed-type long-range strike drone approaching, then hitting the fuel tanks in the Omani port of Salalah earlier on Wednesday. The attack caused a powerful explosion and fireball.

In a post on X, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he told leaders from Russia and Pakistan that his nation reaffirms its “commitment to peace in the region.”

“The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression,” he exclaimed.

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.

— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) March 11, 2026

The Coordination Committee of the Iraqi Resistance issued a warning to Syrian leader, Ahmed Sharaa, threatening that any hostile move toward Lebanon, particularly if coordinated with the U.S. or Israel, would be treated as a declaration of war against the entire Axis of Resistance.

Notable: The Coordination Committee of the Iraqi Resistance – a loosely coordinated body made up of Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq that align messaging, threats, and occasionally operations – issued a warning to Syrian leader, Ahmed Sharaa, threatening that any hostile move… pic.twitter.com/ze40sgZcPC

— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) March 11, 2026

The threat in Iraq remains real as you can see by the following video, which reportedly shows an interceptor hitting an Iranian drone over Erbil.

There is pushback to claims that the U.S. is sending Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems from Korea for deployment to the Middle East.

According to the latest reports, the six launchers present in Korea left their base, delivered (presumably 48) interceptor missiles to Osan Air Base to be transported out, then returned. (And an anti-THAAD group is demanding the radar be removed, as it is still there) https://t.co/T4igHmcCDq

— Joel Atkinson (@Joel_P_Atkinson) March 11, 2026

UAE reportedly sees an opportunity to reclaim the Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb islands that Iran seized in 1971.

The Bellingcat investigative team geolocated eight videos showing U.S. Tomahawk launches.

Bellingcat has geolocated eight videos showing US Tomahawks cruise missiles in Iraq heading towards Iran. The missiles appear to be flying low across valleys and were most likely fired from the Mediterranean sea, an expert told us. pic.twitter.com/9bTO2BODa1

— Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 11, 2026

UPDATE: 2:40 PM EST –

Saying most of Iran’s Navy has been destroyed, Trump urged oil companies to start using the Strait of Hormuz again.

TRUMP: I think oil companies should use the Strait of Hormuz.

“We took out just about all of their mine ships in one night… just about all of their navy is gone.”

pic.twitter.com/vJ53Xr1AiN

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 11, 2026

Meanwhile, India condemned the Iranian attack on the Thai ship bound for Kandla.

“Iran and the terrorist militias allied with it may be planning to target U.S.-owned oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq,” the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad warned. “Additionally, Iran-aligned terrorist militias have targeted hotels frequented by Americans in various parts of Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. “

تنبيه أمني – سفارة الولايات المتحدة في بغداد، العراق – 11 آذار 2026 – تحديث رقم 1

الموقع: العراق

التحديث:
قد تكون إيران والميليشيات الإرهابية المتحالفة معها بصدد التخطيط لاستهداف البنية التحتية للنفط والطاقة التي تملكها للولايات المتحدة في العراق. كما وقامت ميليشيات إرهابية…

— U.S. Embassy Baghdad (@USEmbBaghdad) March 11, 2026

The IDF released a video containing what it says was audio of a radio exchange between an Israeli and U.S. pilot.

UPDATE: 2:06 EST –

An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Feb. 28 Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, The New York Times reported, citing U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.

The Feb. 28 strike on the elementary school was the result of a targeting mistake by the U.S., preliminary inquiry says: “U.S. Central Command created the target coordinates for the strike using outdated data provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency.” https://t.co/sgMwh2wRz1 pic.twitter.com/2cTHHdGg3q

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) March 11, 2026

Iran’s Armed Forces spokesman General Shekarchi warned the U.S. and allies against striking Iranian ports.

“If any threat is made against our ports, all docks and economic ports in the entire region will be our legitimate targets, and we will carry out operations heavier than those we have done so far,” he vowed.

#BREAKING
Spokesperson of Iran’s Armed Forces General Shekarchi:
If any threat is made against our ports, all docks and economic ports in the entire region will be our legitimate targets, and we will carry out operations heavier than those we have done so far. pic.twitter.com/vrtKP4bOkQ

— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) March 11, 2026

Iran may be using a Chinese satellite navigation system to target Israel and United States military assets in the Middle East, intelligence experts say, according to Al Jazeera.

“Former French foreign intelligence director Alain Juillet told France’s independent Tocsin podcast this week that it is likely that Iran has been provided access to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system because its targeting has become much more accurate since the 12-Day War with Israel in June,” the outlet reported.

1:55PM EST—

The NYT reports that Pentagon officials told U.S. lawmakers that Iran has as much as 50% of its missiles and launchers remaining.

“Two military officials said there was concern that the Pentagon did not have full clarity on all of Iran’s launch sites. The officials also said that Iran had kept many missiles in reserve to strike at important battlefield targets like the American radars…. Pentagon officials…

— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) March 11, 2026

A Merlin early warning and control helicopter has arrived in Cyprus to provide a critical ‘look down’ capability for spotting incoming drones. You can read about how critical this capability is and how new assets are being sent to the Middle East to help provide it in our story from yesterday linked here.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Lawmakers express concerns as Trump officials project $50bn more may be needed for Iran war funding.

Officials from President Donald Trump’s administration have estimated during a congressional briefing this week that the first six days of the war on Iran had cost the United States at least $11.3bn, a source familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency.

That figure, from a closed-door briefing for senators on Tuesday, did not include the entire cost of the war, but was provided to lawmakers as they have clamoured for more information about the cost.

Several congressional aides have said they expect the White House to soon submit a request to Congress for additional funding for the war. Some officials have said the request could be for $50bn, while others have said that estimate seems low.

The administration has not provided a public assessment of the cost of the conflict or a clear idea of its expected duration. Trump said during a trip to Kentucky on Wednesday that “we won” the war but that the US would stay in the fight to finish the job.

The $11.3bn figure was first reported on Wednesday by The New York Times.

The human cost

The US-Israeli war on Iran has so far killed about 2,000 people, mostly Iranians and Lebanese, as the conflict has spread across the Middle East, with Iranian retaliatory strikes on neighbouring countries hosting US assets, sending energy prices soaring.

The United Nations children’s agency (UNICEF) says the “intensifying conflict” has killed or wounded 1,100 children, creating a “catastrophic” situation for millions of children across the Middle East.

About 800,000 people have already been displaced in Lebanon by relentless Israeli bombardment.

Administration officials also have told lawmakers that $5.6bn of munitions were used during the first two days of strikes.

Members of Congress, who may soon have to approve additional funding for the war, have expressed concern that the conflict will deplete US military stocks at a time when the defence industry was already struggling to keep up with demand.

Democratic lawmakers have demanded public testimony under oath from administration officials about the Republican president’s plans for the war, including how long it might last and what his plans are for Iran once the fighting has stopped.

Trump on Wednesday said the war with Iran may end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left” for the US military to bomb. He did not provide any evidence for that claim.

Gaza City, the Gaza Strip – Shortly before the call to sunset prayer, Islam Dardouna stretches her hand towards a pot hanging over a makeshift stove fashioned from a battered metal can, with scraps of paper and pieces of wood feeding the fire beneath it.

Then she pauses. She turns her face away from the rising tongues of smoke. Her face stained with a thin layer of soot and her clothes steeped in the lingering smell of fumes, she takes a deep breath but does not immediately lift the lid.

In her right hand, Dardouna holds an asthma inhaler as though it were a ladle or tongs. With her other hand, she tries to prepare food for her three children.

“I can no longer tolerate the fire at all,” the 34-year-old says in a strained voice as she raises the inhaler to her mouth.

“We heat water on it, cook on it … everything. It completely destroyed my health,” she said, pointing to her chest.

Dardouna has been displaced from Jabalia in northern Gaza since the start of Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in the territory in October 2023.

She now lives with her husband – 37-year-old Muath Dardouna – and their children in Sheikh Ajleen, west of Gaza City.

A year and a half ago, their home was destroyed. Since then, the family has moved from place to place until they eventually settled in this camp alongside other displaced families.

Everything changed after the war began. But for Dardouna, having to cook daily over an open fire in the face of cooking gas and fuel ranks among the worst.

“Our entire life now is a struggle, searching for wood and things we never imagined we would need one day,” she says. “There is no cooking gas and no gas cylinders. We lost all of that during displacement.”

What makes the situation even harder is that she suffers from asthma and chronic chest allergies, conditions she says began during Israel’s 2008 war on Gaza when she inhaled the smoke of a phosphorus bomb that dropped on her house. Her situation improved over the years, but has dramatically worsened during the current war.

“I developed airway obstruction, and recently there were masses found in my lungs,” said Dardouna, who in January was hospitalised for six days after suffering from oxygen shortage.

“The doctors prescribed an oxygen cylinder for me,” she says, quietly. “But unfortunately, I cannot afford it.”

A prolonged shortage

Like so many others across Gaza, Dardouna is struggling amid a prolonged shortage of cooking gas and fuel that has persisted since the start of the war.

Supplies have remained severely limited even after a “ceasefire” came into effect in October that included provisions allowing the entry of fuel and essential goods into the territory.

However, the quantities that have entered since then remain far below the population’s actual needs, according to official sources in Gaza and United Nations agencies.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says the availability of cooking gas in Gaza remains “critically constrained”, with the limited quantities entering the territory covering less than three percent of what is required.

As a result, many families have been forced to rely on alternative and often hazardous cooking methods.

UN data indicates that about 54.5 percent of households rely on firewood for cooking, roughly 43 percent burn waste or plastic, and only around 1.5 percent are able to cook with gas.

Humanitarian groups warn that such unsafe alternatives endanger people’s health and the environment due to prolonged exposure to smoke and toxic fumes produced by burning plastic and other waste.

Amid these conditions, cooking over open fires made from wood, scrap materials or plastic has become a daily reality across displacement camps and neighbourhoods throughout Gaza.

The crisis has intensified during the Muslim holy month Ramadan, when families must prepare both suhoor meals before their daily fast and iftar meals afterwards.

Firewood has become expensive, requiring a daily budget. Lighting the fire before dawn is also often difficult due to the lack of lighting and unfavourable weather conditions, so the family often skips the pre-dawn meal entirely.

“Today, for example, it’s raining and windy. I couldn’t light the fire,” said Darduna’s husband, Muath, who is also helping out with the daily cooking.

“Even when we break our fast, we wish we could drink a cup of tea or coffee afterwards, but we can’t, because lighting the fire again is another struggle.”

A former psychosocial support worker for children, Muath says it pains him to see his children fasting without suhoor.

“Every detail of our lives is literally suffering,” he says. “Fetching water is suffering. Cooking is suffering. Even going to the bathroom is suffering. We are truly exhausted,” he added.

“Our lives are covered in soot,” Muath says, pointing to the black smoke stains left by the fire.

He describes gas as “one of our dreams”, recalling how “it felt like Eid day” when the family got a gas cylinder a few months ago. “But we don’t even have the stove to use it, and many families are like us,” he said.

“We are living on the edge of nothing. Displacement and war stripped us of everything,” he adds. “We are willing to live with the simplest rights in tents. But there is no heating, no gas, no lighting. It feels like we are living in open graves on Earth.”

Serious implications

In a statement on Wednesday, the General Petroleum Authority in Gaza warned of the “catastrophic and dangerous consequences of the continued halt in cooking gas supplies” to the territory, stressing that the crisis “directly affects the lives of more than two million residents” amid already dire humanitarian conditions.

The authority said Gaza had already been facing a shortfall of about 70 percent of its actual gas needs compared with the quantities that entered after the “ceasefire” announcement.

It added that the “complete suspension of gas supplies places the Gaza Strip before a looming disaster that threatens food and health security”, particularly during Ramadan.

The authority also said that preventing gas from entering the enclave constitutes a “clear violation of the ceasefire understandings”, calling on mediators and international actors to intervene urgently to ensure the regular flow of cooking gas into Gaza.

Across Gaza, many families now rely on ready-made meals from aid distributions and charity kitchens because of economic collapse and the difficulty of cooking.

“Even when food arrives ready hours before iftar,” Muath says, “heating it becomes another problem.”

The frustration of daily survival pushes Muath to the brink.

“As a father now, I cannot even provide the most basic things,” he says. “Imagine my son simply wants a cup of tea … even a little wind can stop me from making it.”

‘The fire suffocates you’

In a nearby tent, Amani Aed al-Bashleqi, 26, sits watching food being cooked over an open fire for iftar while her husband stirs the pot.

She said cooking on fire makes food taste “flavourless” – not because the taste changes, but because “exhaustion and suffering have become part of every bite”.

“We start cooking early so we can finish by iftar, and after breaking the fast, my husband and I are completely exhausted and covered in soot.”

Like Dardouna, al-Bashleqi says the smoke causes severe headaches and health problems.

“The fire suffocates you. All the women in the camp suffer health problems from cooking on fire,” she says. “But we have no choice.”

She has a seven-month-old baby, and her biggest worry is boiling water for his milk.

“Sometimes I boil water and keep it in a borrowed thermos, but I don’t always have one,” she says. “And sometimes when he wakes up at night, I mix the milk with water without boiling it, even though I know that’s not healthy. But what can I do?”

Nearby, Iman Junaid, 34, displaced from Jabalia to western Gaza City, sits with her husband Jihad, 36, in front of the fire preparing food.

Junaid blows on the flames while she pushes an empty plastic oil bottle under the fire.

Behind them, bags full of plastic bottles are piled up. The family collected them to fuel the fire because cooking gas has been unavailable for months.

A mother of six, Junaid says she knows the health dangers of burning plastic, but has “no other choice”.

“My little daughter is one year old, and her chest always hurts because she inhales the smoke,” she says. “Our life is collecting and burning plastic and nylon.”

“With the price of wood rising, we now wish we could even find wood. Gas has become almost impossible … we’ve forgotten it.”

She said there were many promises that gas would enter Gaza after the “ceasefire”, but “nothing happened”.

For Dardounah, the solution is not simply bringing cooking gas into Gaza. “What we need is for life to become possible again,” she says.

“Let gas enter. Let goods enter at reasonable prices. Let there be basic necessities for a normal life.”

Israeli journalist and writer, Gideon Levy, says that regime change in Iran is unlikely and the decision to end the war ultimately rests with US President Trump, not Israel.

The National People’s Congress signals firm stance against corruption as China’s 15th five-year plan is approved.

China’s annual legislative meeting is wrapping up after setting the country’s lowest economic growth target in nearly 30 years, excluding during the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Nearly 3,000 delegates participating in the National People’s Congress (NPC) were due on Thursday to formally approve an economic growth target of “4.5 to 5 percent”, as set out in China’s latest five-year plan.

The 15th iteration of the five-year plan, an economic roadmap for 2026 to 2030, also set targets for inflation, the fiscal deficit ratio and urban unemployment.

China has set the longterm goal of becoming a “moderately developed” country by 2035 and raising gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to $20,000. The figure was $13,303 in 2024, according to the World Bank.

Planners in Beijing also continue to grapple with deep economic problems driven by the collapse of the property sector, low consumer confidence and a prolonged period of deflation.

China’s targets for the next five years include industrial self-reliance and increased state support for industries such as AI, aerospace, aviation, biomedicine and integrated circuits, as well as the development of “future energy, quantum technology, embodied artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology”, according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.

Beijing also aims to expand the use of the digital yuan, known as the e-CNY, to improve cross-border payments, according to the Reuters news agency. The digital currency is currently under development by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank.

Among the most closely watched elements of the NPC over the past week has been the release of government “work reports” from China’s many government ministries, which give insight into China’s progress in meeting its goals and the direction of its future policy.

The NPC’s Standing Committee released a work report indicating that China will soon pass a law on combatting cross-border corruption, Xinhua said.

The measure is seen as an extension of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s long-running anticorruption drive across the Chinese state, military and private sector.

The campaign appears to be gaining momentum as the Supreme People’s Court, China’s highest court, reported a 22.4 percent increase in corruption cases last year involving 36,000 individuals, according to Xinhua.

The state also recovered 18.14 billion yuan ($2.63bn) as part of its anticorruption crackdown in 2025, Xinhua said.

China’s military also identified combatting corruption as an important target in its annual work report, as well as ensuring political loyalty to Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.

The NPC typically runs for a week, and it is held alongside the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, a political advisory body.

The meetings are known as the “Two Sessions”, and they bring thousands of delegates to Beijing to approve short- and mid-term policy measures.

Iranian explosive-laden boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck three vessels in Gulf waters, according to reports.

The ships targeted in late-night ⁠attacks on Wednesday in the Gulf near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officials told the Reuters news agency.

“We recovered the body of a foreign crew member from the water,” one port security official said, as Iraqi rescue teams continued searching for other missing seafarers. It was not immediately clear which ship that person was linked to.

One Iraqi port security source said Zefyros is flagged ‌in Malta and provided Reuters with a list of crew names.

Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Baghdad, Iraq, Mahmoud Abdelwahed, said the tankers were loaded with crude oil from the Umm Qasr port in southern Iraq in the Basra province, and were attacked soon after their voyage got under way.

“Iraqi officials say this is a flagrant violation of Iraq’s sovereignty given the fact this act, they say, of sabotage has happened in Iraq’s territorial waters,” Abdelwahed said.

Reuters said that reports of the use of explosive-laden unmanned surface vessels, which Ukraine has used with great effect in its war with Russia, come as Iran has blocked oil shipments from transiting the key Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of ⁠the world’s oil transits but has been blocked amid the United States-Israeli war on Iran.

Reuters, citing two unnamed sources, also reported on Wednesday that Iran ‌has deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, while US President Donald Trump said US forces had struck 28 Iranian mine-laying vessels, amid warnings by Trump of severe repercussions should Iran lay mines in the key waterway for global shipping.

Strait of Hormuz sealed

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have warned that any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted.

The Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree dry bulk vessel was struck by “two projectiles of unknown origin” while sailing through the strait earlier on Wednesday, causing a fire and damaging the engine room, the ship’s Thai-listed operator Precious Shipping said in a statement.

“Three crew members are ⁠reported missing and believed to be trapped in the engine room,” Precious Shipping said.

“The company is working with the relevant authorities to rescue these three ⁠missing crew members,” it said, adding that the remaining 20 crew members had been safely evacuated and were ashore in Oman.

Images shared by Thai news outlet Khaosod English showed what were reported to be crew members of the ship after their rescue by Oman’s navy.

The IRGC said in a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency that the ship was “fired upon by Iranian fighters”, suggesting the first direct engagement by the IRGC, who have previously fired missiles or drones.

The Japan-flagged container ship ONE Majesty also sustained minor damage on Wednesday from an unknown projectile 25 nautical miles (about 46 kilometres) northwest ⁠of Ras al-Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, two maritime security firms said. Its Japanese owner Mitsui OSK Lines and a spokesperson for Ocean Network Express, its charterer, said the vessel was struck while at anchor in the Gulf, and an inspection of the hull revealed minor damage above the waterline.

All crew are safe, they said, adding that the vessel remains fully operational and seaworthy. The owner said the cause of the incident remained unclear and was under investigation.

A third vessel, a bulk ‌carrier, was also hit by an unknown projectile approximately 50 nautical miles (about 93km) northwest of Dubai, maritime security firms said.

The projectile had damaged the hull of the Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth, maritime risk management company Vanguard said, adding that the vessel’s crew were safe. Owner Star Bulk Carriers said the ship was hit in the hold area while it was anchored. There were no crew injuries and no listing.

The US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry ⁠for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Some supporters of the US-Israeli war on Iran are using the treatment of women in the country as a justification for bombing it. Al Jazeera’s Ava Warriner explains.

Satellite imagery from Vantor shows that a site long linked to Iran’s nuclear program has been struck. A trio of very large impact points also raises the possibility that the hardened facility was hit by 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs. MOPs were first used operationally in U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer. The Taleghan 2 site was newly encased in a concrete shell and then covered with soil in the months leading up to the current conflict, which may have created a need to use munitions more capable of burrowing down into it to have a better chance of ensuring its destruction.

Vantor’s post-strike images of Taleghan 2, seen at the top of this story and below, were taken earlier today. As noted, three very large and precise impact points are visible on top of the facility.

Vantor also shared previous images of Taleghan 2 taken on March 6, 2026, and November 14, 2025. Other parts of Parchin were notably struck on March 6, but Taleghan 2 was left untouched at that time.

Taleghan 2 had already been covered in a new layer of concrete by mid-January of this year. Soil had also been added on top weeks before joint U.S.-Israeli operations began on February 28. Iran was also observed taking steps to further harden and/or seal up a host of other key facilities across the country in the lead-up to the current conflict, but not to this degree. TWZ highlighted similar activity at Iranian nuclear sites ahead of the Operation Midnight Hammer strikes last year.

We do not know what munitions were used to strike Taleghan 2, but the impact points are at least broadly consistent with what was seen at Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites after Operation Midnight Hammer. During that operation, B-2 bombers dropped 12 GBU-57/Bs on Fordow and another two MOPs on Natanz.

When reached by TWZ, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) declined to comment on whether GBU-57/Bs had been dropped on Taleghan 2 or any other site in Iran in the course of the current campaign. The only aircraft currently certified to carry MOPs operationally is the B-2 bomber, with each one being able to carry two of the massive bombs at a time. B-2s have been striking Iran since the first night of the conflict.

From what can be seen via satellite imagery, Taleghan 2 does appear to be as deeply buried as either Fordow or the underground facility at Natanz. At the same time, it was very thoroughly and deliberately hardened against attack just in the past few months, which could have driven a decision to target it with GBU-57/Bs. That work was also done relatively quickly with a clear eye toward shielding the site from strikes.

Other aspects of the target may have factored in, as well. In the strikes on Fordow last year, B-2s dropped six MOPs each down two air shafts to achieve the desired penetration. Those air vents offered a weak channel through which the bombs could penetrate far deeper to get to the targeted chamber deep within the mountain. Though it may be shallower, there do not appear to be any similar inlets readily visible at Taleghan 2. Using 30,000-pound bombs would also have helped guarantee more total destruction of this high-priority facility. The determination that MOPs were required might also explain why it was not struck previously.

The video below is a montage of imagery from past GBU-57/B tests that the U.S. military released last year after Operation Midnight Hammer.

GBU-57 MOP test

It is possible that other munitions may have been used to strike Taleghan 2. Smaller bunker busters could be dropped in succession on the same aim point in order to create openings and then create significant effects inside. CENTCOM has previously confirmed B-2 strikes on deeply buried targets in Iran using salvos of 2,000-pound-class bunker buster bombs.

Striking Taleghan 2 otherwise fits with the U.S. military’s stated core objective of neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program. The site is tied to long-standing allegations of nuclear weapons-related work at Parchin, which Iranian officials have consistently denied. Taleghan 2 is specifically believed to have been a production facility for specialized conventional explosives required for nuclear weapons.

The Israelis previously struck Taleghan 2 in 2024 and then targeted Parchin again during the 12 Day War last year. In both cases, Iran subsequently rebuilt key facilities at the complex.

Whether the latest strike on Taleghan 2, whatever munitions may have been used, has taken it out for good remains to be seen.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

During a cabinet meeting, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called for strengthening the country’s ability to withstand “hardship” as the US-Israel war on Iran rages.

Two foreign tankers were seen ablaze in Iraqi territorial waters after a strike near the al-Faw port. Authorities say they evacuated 25 crew members but have confirmed at least one death and are battling to control the flames.