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PSG vs Arsenal: UEFA Champions League final – 10 things to know | Football News

Al Jazeera runs you through this season’s UEFA Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal.

Europe’s premier club competition concludes on Saturday when the final of the UEFA Champions League is played.

From qualifying to a comprehensive league phase and then the drama of the knockouts, the tournament now comes down to two teams.

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Al Jazeera runs you through the top 10 things you need to know about the showpiece event for European football’s governing body, UEFA.

Who is playing in the Champions League final?

This year’s final will be contested by English Premier League club Arsenal, who overcame Atletico Madrid in the semifinals, and French giants Paris Saint-Germain, who defeated Bayern Munich in their last-four clash.

Who is the defending Champions League winner?

PSG are the defending champions, having lifted the tournament for the first time last season.

The French club beat Inter Milan in the final with an incredible 5-0 scoreline that humiliated the Italian Serie A club in Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.

Desire Doue scored twice to cement his place as one of the biggest names in the game, even at the tender age of 19.

Achraf Hakimi was also on the scoresheet alongside Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Senny Mayulu. Incredibly Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele missed out on netting a goal despite being one of the star names en route to the final.

Who is the favourite to win this year’s final?

PSG are the heavy favourites to defend their crown, but Arsenal are being tipped as one of the rising forces in European football.

The Gunners have never won Europe’s most prized footballing trophy but have just ended a 22-year wait to lift the Premier League.

Who are PSG’s key players for the Champions League final?

Doue and Dembele remain the key figures for PSG although the latter is an injury doubt for the final.

Hakimi is also one of the most recognisable players in the Parisians’ ranks, but he is the major concern for the match, having missed both legs of the semifinal and the last four Ligue 1 games of the season because of an injury.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia tops PSG’s scoring charts across all competitions this season by one goal ahead of Dembele, who has 18. Bradley Barcelo has 13 strikes to his name while Doue has 12.

At the back, PSG are lead by Brazilian international Marquinhos.

Who are Arsenal’s key players for the Champions League final?

Declan Rice is seen as the heart of Arsenal’s team, not least as the England midfielder operates in the centre of the park.

Viktor Gyokeres has grown into the role of leading the line in attack, and the Swedish international has returned 19 goals in his debut season for the North Londoners.

The two players that are often regarded as having the magical touches for the Gunners, though, are England internationals Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze, who have netted 10 and 7 times, respectively.

Much like PSG, Arsenal have a Brazilian powerhouse at the back in the form of Gabriel Magalhaes.

Where is the Champions League final being played?

The final is being staged at Puskas Stadium in the Hungarian capital, Budapest.

The stadium – named in honour of the country’s most famous footballer, Ferenc Puskas – was rebuilt in 2017, and construction was completed for its reopening in 2019. It has the capacity for 67,215 spectators.

What trophies have Arsenal and PSG already won this season?

Arsenal sealed their first league title since 2004 when Arsene Wenger’s “Invincibles” went unbeaten all season. The campaign went to the penultimate match when Manchester City’s failure to win at Bournemouth meant the North Londoners could no longer be caught. The Gunners also reached the final of the League Cup, but they were defeated by City.

PSG finished six points clear of Lens in the French league, beating their nearest challengers in the penultimate round to secure the trophy.

It is their fifth consecutive league title and their 12th in 14 seasons, taking their overall tally to 14 Ligue 1 crowns.

When is the Champions League final, and what time is kickoff?

The match is being played on Saturday and will kick off at 6pm (17:00 GMT).

Will the Champions League final be free to watch?

No. The UEFA Champions League is part of a subscription package across the world, as sold by the continent’s governing body.

How can I follow the Champions League final?

Al Jazeera Sport will bring you our comprehensive build-up before kickoff from 2pm (13:00 GMT) on Saturday before our text commentary stream of the match.

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Inside Ukraine’s Drone Forces Targeting Russia’s Rear Battlefield Positions

In eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using drones launched from slingshots to target military sites held by Russia. Their commander, known as “Kyt,” explained that they focus on enemy bases, ammunition depots, and air-defence systems. The soldiers prepare the drones, programming targets via a laptop before launching them.

Ukraine is increasing its efforts in these “middle strikes,” aimed at Russian defenses and logistical sites located 30 to 180 kilometers behind the frontline. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that these drone strikes have increased fourfold since February, helping to slow Russian advances and shifting the battlefield momentum. According to reports, in the past month, Russia has only captured about 50 square kilometers of territory.

Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced an additional $113 million funding for effective strike units, emphasizing that the enemy’s rear area is no longer safe. The Ukrainian-made drones, called “Drakosha” or “little dragons,” can reach various targets, including parts of occupied Ukraine and even Russian territory. Analysts note that these strikes disrupt Russian logistics and have collateral effects on longer-range drone operations targeting Russian oil infrastructure.

The conflict has seen shifts in technological advantage, with both sides adapting in response to each other’s capabilities.

With information from Reuters

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EU sanctions ‘extremist’ Israeli settlers in occupied West Bank | Israel-Palestine conflict News

EU says the sanctioned individuals and groups violated a range of rights, from the right to physical and mental integrity, to the right to education.

The European Union has sanctioned four entities and three individuals it says are “extremist Israeli settlers” responsible for “serious” human rights abuses against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

The EU said they had violated a range of rights, including the rights to physical and mental integrity, privacy and family life, freedom of religion and education.

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The announcement on Thursday is part of an EU sanctions package agreed earlier this month to punish Israeli settlers and Hamas leaders.

The sanctions include the Nachala Settlement Movement and its director, Daniella Weiss. The EU says the group “encourages and facilitates coercive acts that lead to the forced displacement of Palestinians”.

Israeli NGO Regavim and its director, Meir Deutsch, are also on the sanctions list for lobbying “for the demolition of Palestinian property” in order to expand Israel’s control over the entirety of the West Bank, plus the demolition of an EU-funded Palestinian primary school.

Also sanctioned is the Hashomer Yosh NGO and its president, Avichai Suissa for supporting “at least 28 violent outposts and settlements”. It also recruits armed volunteers and provides guards who engage in violent attacks, the EU added.

The Amana cooperative association of the settler movement Gush Emunim was also sanctioned, the EU stating it had likewise “played a key role in initiating, financing, and facilitating at least 30 violent outposts and settlements”.

Long-awaited sanctions

With Thursday’s additions, the EU said it now sanctions 136 persons and 41 entities from a range of countries under its Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime.

The regime was created in 2020, and applies to acts such as genocide, crimes against humanity and other serious human rights violations or abuses.

The measures targeting Israeli settlers because of violence against Palestinians were long-awaited, having been blocked by the self-styled illiberal government of Hungary’s former premier Viktor Orban.

However, the appointment of new Prime Minister Peter Magyar saw the veto quickly lifted earlier this month.

Israel earlier condemned the sanctions, asserting that Jews have the right to settle in the occupied West Bank, despite that being in violation of international law.

In 2025, the expansion of Israeli settlements reached its highest level since at least 2017, when the United Nations began tracking data.

Since the start of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the West Bank has been gripped by almost daily violence involving Israeli troops and settlers. More than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in the territory, according to the UN.

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Israel’s Netanyahu directs army to seize 70 percent of Gaza Strip | Israel-Palestine conflict News

The Israeli army has already expanded its control of Gaza by 11 percent over the ‘Yellow Line’, beyond the terms of the ‘ceasefire’.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the Israeli army to expand its control of the Gaza Strip to 70 percent, according to remarks aired by Israeli media.

“At this point, we are fully in control of 60 percent of the territory of the Gaza Strip … and my directive is to get to … 70 percent,” Netanyahu said in footage recorded by Channel 12 and aired on Thursday.

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When someone in the audience shouted that Israel should take the entire besieged enclave, the prime minister said “we are going in order”, according to The Times of Israel. “First 70 percent,” he said without disputing that a complete takeover could take place. “We’ll start with that.”

The Israeli army had in mid-March quietly sent maps to aid organisations showing it had already expanded its control to about 11 percent beyond the so-called “Yellow Line” demarcating areas of the enclave occupied by Israeli troops. That line was agreed in a United States-brokered “ceasefire” in October 2025. That meant it controlled 64 percent of the Palestinian territory, instead of 53 percent.

Due to the Israeli army occupation, Palestinians cannot access about two-thirds of Gaza. A further seizure of the territory would force two million of them, already living in disastrous conditions, into an even smaller territory after enduring two years of genocidal war.

Despite the nominal truce reached last year, Israeli bombing in Gaza continues with near-daily attacks. An Al Jazeera tally from October to April counted at least 2,400 Israeli violations. Earlier on Thursday, health authorities said an Israeli air raid killed at least 10 people, including four children, and wounded 20 others.

According to the United Nations Office for Humanitarian Affairs’ (OCHA) latest report, the humanitarian situation for civilians in Gaza remains critical, with displaced families living in overcrowded tents, schools or damaged structures. Clean water is scarce, and poor waste collection is increasing health risks, including the spread of rats and insects. Many neighbourhoods across Gaza are also still dangerous, with frequent air strikes, shelling and shootings happening in or near residential areas, the report said.

Last week, the high representative overseeing the US-founded Board of Peace for Gaza, Nickolay Mladenov, warned that the deteriorating status quo in the enclave risks becoming “permanent”.  Speaking to the UN Security Council, he urged the international body to use “every means at its disposal” to press Hamas to disarm and to push Israel to uphold its commitment under the October ceasefire, pointing to its continued killings and restrictions on humanitarian flow.

The war that Israel launched following the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel by Hamas and other armed Palestinian groups has killed more than 72,775 Palestinians. The Israeli military continues to maintain a strict security regime, and many hundreds more have been killed in the past seven months. Conflict monitors warn that since the US-Israel war on Iran started in February, Israeli bombardment of Gaza has accelerated.

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What’s behind South Africa’s anti-migrant protests? | Migration News

Foreign workers in South Africa are yet again facing violence and protests by anti-immigrant groups. They accuse them of residing and working in the country illegally and are demanding that they leave by June 30.

South Africa has seen recurrent waves of anti-immigrant violence in the past decade – often directed at other African nationals.

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Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the country has become a destination for thousands of workers from neighbouring countries. But many South Africans say the government is not upholding its immigration laws.

So, does South Africa still need foreign workers?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

William Gumede – Associate professor, School of Governance at the University of the Witwatersrand

Lindiwe Zulu – Member of the ANC Committee on International Relations and a former South African minister of social development

Ashraf Essop – Immigration lawyer

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CNN sues Perplexity, alleging unlawful distribution of copyrighted content | Media News

Perplexity unlawfully copied thousands of CNN stories, videos and images to power its products, CNN said in its lawsuit.

United States news channel CNN has filed a lawsuit against Perplexity in New York federal court, alleging the AI search engine provider is unlawfully distributing its copyrighted content, marking the latest legal tussle between the AI firm and a news publisher.

The complaint, filed on Thursday, said that Perplexity unlawfully copied thousands of CNN stories, videos and images to power its products and distribute “identical or substantially similar” competing content.

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“You can’t copyright facts,” Perplexity spokesperson Jesse Dwyer said in response to the lawsuit.

CNN is asking for an unspecified amount of monetary damages and a court order blocking Perplexity from violating its intellectual property rights.

“CNN’s lawsuit stands for the proposition that Perplexity, a company valued at tens of billions of dollars, should not be able to steal from entities that create the original content Perplexity exploits,” the Warner Bros-owned news company said in a statement.

“By exploiting CNN’s reporting in this manner, Perplexity violates the protections afforded by copyright law and undermines the economic incentives that make original newsgathering possible,” CNN said in the complaint.

Since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, news publishers and writers have worried about their content being repurposed to appear in the results of a chatbot query, triggering battles over copyright, compensation and ownership.

CNN’s lawsuit is one of dozens of high-stakes US cases brought by copyright owners, including news outlets, authors and publishers, against tech companies over alleged misuse of their work to train large language models. Anthropic was the first AI company to settle one of these cases last year, agreeing to pay $1.5bn to resolve a class action lawsuit from a group of authors.

The CNN suit is the latest in a series of legal challenges brought against Perplexity, which uses AI to scour websites and answer users’ queries, alleging the company has infringed copyrights and unlawfully scraped data to train its technology.

Perplexity is also facing lawsuits from The New York Times, Reddit and Dow Jones, among others.

Several news firms have now signed licensing deals and partnerships with Big Tech and generative AI companies to ensure that their models have access to verified sources of news, while also compensating publishers and linking back to original articles.

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UN ‘adds Israel to blacklist’ for conflict-related sexual violence | Israel-Palestine conflict News

Israeli ambassador to the UN says Tel Aviv will cut ties with UN chief Antonio Guterres over the upcoming report.

The United Nations has “added Israel to the blacklist of sexual violence in conflict zones”, prompting Israel to cut ties with UN chief Antonio Guterres, the country’s ambassador to the UN says.

“We are done with this secretary-general,” Israeli ambassador Danny Danon added in a video posted on X on Thursday, denouncing the upcoming report from Guterres’s office.

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The UN secretary-general’s annual report on conflict-related sexual violence is customarily presented to relevant states before publication. Last August, the report warned that Israel could be added to the list of parties suspected of, or responsible for, sexual violence in situations of armed conflict.

“The decision to blacklist Israel and accuse us of using sexual violence as a weapon of war is an outrageous decision,” Danon said.

“The secretary-general and his team continue to spread lies against Israel. To put us and Hamas terrorists on the same list, that’s unacceptable.”

The Israeli mission to the UN said in a statement that it will have no contact with the secretary-general’s office as long as Guterres serves as head of the organisation.

The country’s foreign ministry also expressed anger over the upcoming report.

“The shameful and absurd UN decision to include Israeli entities in the annex to the CRSV (conflict-related sexual violence) report is further proof of the UN’s true nature: a politicised and corrupt organisation that has abandoned its founding principles and systematically targets Israel as its primary mission,” Oren Marmorstein, a spokesperson for the Israeli foreign ministry, said on X.

Guterres’s spokesperson said they were aware of Danon’s remarks.

“For our part, the secretary-general’s door remains open,” Stephane Dujarric said.

Systematic pattern of abuse

Last August, the UN cited “credible information” regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centres, and said UN inspectors had been denied access to the facilities.

“We invited the representative of the UN to come to Israel to check those ridiculous allegations. They chose not to come,” Danon said.

Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons, especially those taken from Gaza during Israel’s brutal war since 2023, have long revealed how they suffer dehumanising treatment by guards and soldiers, including torture and sexual violence. According to international human rights organisations, these testimonies are part of a broader and systematic pattern.

Furthermore, a report from the West Bank Protection Consortium last month found that sexual violence and other forms of gender-based abuse committed by Israeli settlers and soldiers are spurring Palestinians to leave the occupied West Bank.

Even foreigners, namely those on board a recent Gaza-bound aid flotilla, say that freed activists who were abducted from international waters faced abuse while in Israeli detention, including at least 15 separate cases of sexual assault or rape.

Earlier this month, Israel also rejected accusations of rape by its forces, which were detailed in a column by longtime New York Times journalist Nicholas Kristof. The Israeli government had responded to the report by stating that it would take the extraordinary step of suing the paper. Kristof’s reporting was based on the accounts of 14 male and female Palestinian victims.

Relations between the UN and Israel are fraught and have reached an all-time low since October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack that preceded Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, which has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians.

Israeli authorities have criticised Guterres and other UN officials for their condemnation of its brutal conduct in Gaza. The UN chief was declared “persona non grata” in Israel in 2024.

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Fire kills 16 students at Kenyan girls’ boarding school | Newsfeed

NewsFeed

At least 16 students were killed and dozens injured after a fire tore through the dormitory of a girls’ boarding school in Kenya’s Rift Valley early Thursday. Panicked parents gathered outside the school searching for their children hours after the blaze was extinguished.

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US Treasury threatens Oman with sanctions over Hormuz Strait | Donald Trump News

A top US official says Oman should know that Washington ‘will aggressively target’ actors that facilitate tolls in waterway.

The United States has warned that it would “aggressively” impose sanctions on Oman if it helps Iran establish a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying President Donald Trump’s threats against the Gulf ally.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that Washington will “not tolerate” either country imposing fees on commercial ships in the strategic waterway.

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“Oman, in particular, should know that the US Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved — directly or indirectly — in facilitating tolls for the Strait and any willing partners will be penalized,” Bessent said in a social media post.

“All nations should reject outright any efforts by Iran to disrupt the free flow of commerce. Tehran’s days of terrorizing the region and the world are over.”

The statement comes less than 24 hours after President Trump threatened to bomb Oman, a key US ally known for its neutrality and mediation efforts in regional crises, including the war between the US and Iran.

While Iran has suggested that the governments in Tehran and Muscat could jointly manage the Hormuz Strait, Oman has not said that it is seeking control over the waterway, parts of which flow through its territory.

It is not clear what is driving Washington’s recent posture toward Oman. It is highly unusual for the US to threaten sanctions and military action against a close security and economic partner.

Since the US and Israel started bombing Iran without direct provocation on February 28, Iran has closed the strait and claimed sovereignty over it.

Around 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed through Hormuz before the conflict, so the Iranian blockade has put a major strain on energy supplies, sending prices soaring.

The US and Iran have been indirectly negotiating to reach an agreement for a comprehensive end to the war, and control over the Hormuz Strait has emerged as a major point of disagreement.

Trump has stressed that the strait must be a free passageway.

When asked whether he would accept joint Iranian-Omani control over the strait in the short term, the US president told reporters on Wednesday: “Nobody is going to control it. It’s international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up.”

Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Thursday that Tehran will not allow Hormuz to be a source of insecurity for the country.

“The powers that have used this passage against Iran’s security must be held accountable,” he was quoted as saying by Iran’s public television.

Bagheri added that Iran seeks to “establish a just order that negates hegemony and domination and strengthens trust and cooperation” in the region.

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Teoscar Hernández injured as Dodgers beat Rockies

Dodgers beat Rockies, but lose Teoscar Hernández

From Maddie Lee: The Dodgers’ recent string of injuries continued Wednesday when left fielder Teoscar Hernández pulled up limping after trying to beat out a grounder to shortstop.

Once he was thrown out in the second inning of the Dodgers’ 4-1 win against the Rockies, Hernández took his time walking across the field back to the dugout.

He sustained a left hamstring strain, and he is headed to the injured list, manager Dave Roberts said after the game. Hernández, after undergoing preliminary testing Wednesday, is scheduled for imaging Thursday.

“Don’t know how severe it is; he tested well,” Roberts said. “…There’s just no timeline, but something like that obviously is going to be a few weeks at the minimum. Disappointing. He’s been playing so well and he’s a big part of what we’re doing. So to lose him for any length of time is not great.”

This series, as results went, was a success for the Dodgers. They swept the Rockies, outscoring Colorado 24-10 over the course of three games. But the injury losses dealt a blow.

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Kiké Hernández’s oblique shows ‘significant tear’ as utility man returns to IL

Dodgers box score

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Go beyond the scoreboard

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Angels shut out by Tigers

Spencer Torkelson homered, doubled twice and drove in three runs, and five Detroit pitchers combined for a two-hitter as the Tigers snapped a season-worst seven-game home skid with a 4-0 win over the Angels on Wednesday night.

Despite winning two of their last three games, the struggling Tigers have lost nine of their last 11, 12 of 15 and 17 of their last 21. Detroit has lost six consecutive series for its longest such drought since 2021 and dropped eight of its last nine.

Drew Anderson (2-1) relieved Casey Mize to start the fifth and pitched three perfect innings with three strikeouts. Mize had six strikeouts, gave up two hits and walked one in four scoreless innings before leaving due to an undisclosed injury.

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Angels box score

MLB standings

Lakers to layoff some people

From Thuc Nhi Nguyen: The Lakers informed employees Wednesday there would be a round of layoffs as the organization continues restructuring under new ownership, according to multiple people.

Those familiar with the situation but unable to speak publicly confirmed to The Times that at least 15 people across multiple departments, including communications, marketing and sales, would be laid off.

Since Dodgers owner Mark Walter took over as the majority owner of the Lakers in a record-setting $10-billion deal that was finalized in October, the franchise has gradually overhauled both business and basketball operations.

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NBA draft reform is a miss

From Mirjam Swanson: In the NBA, it’s all: “Together, on three!” Or “defense, on three!”

Or maybe, “Cancún, on three!”

But when the NBA braintrust breaks a huddle, it’s, “3-2-1, overreact!”

“3-2-1, obfuscate!”

“3-2-1, complicate!”

The NBA’s owners are expected to meet Thursday to approve new “anti-tanking draft reform” via a “3-2-1 lottery.” I just know they’re the type of people who love a good board game — one with rules that take a half-hour to explain, by which time their guests’ eyes have glazed over.

Think they’ll get the hint if someone asks, “Y’all got any Clue instead?”

Actually, I’d prefer to turn on the basketball game, that nuanced, ever-evolving sport that’s beautiful for its simplicity: make or miss.

What’s wild is that a league that brings together the world’s best shooters keeps missing so badly on draft reform — unless it’s actually their feet that they’re aiming at.

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Q&A with UCLA’s Rylee Slimp

From Jordan Puente: UCLA softball coach Kelly Inouye-Perez expected sophomore Rylee Slimp to deliver under pressure.

Slimp earned first-team all-Big Ten honors as the leadoff hitter for a Bruins team that features slugging stars Megan Grant and Jordan Woolery. She leads a group of underclassmen who helped send UCLA to the Women’s College World Series.

“I have seen Rylee Slimp just play big from travel ball to big moments in high school, and she came here to play on this big stage,” Inouye-Perez said. “I think her biggest asset, besides the fact that she can hit a home run, is that she can hit to all areas of the field, and she has such a good eye.

“I think she wanted to be in this position this year. She wanted to be the leadoff and be an impact player.”

The Austin, Texas, native is hitting .428 with 16 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 94 runs. Slimp broke Natasha Watley’s UCLA single-season runs record of 75, set in 2001.

The following interview with Slimp ahead of the Bruins’ WCWS opener against No. 1 seed Alabama on Thursday has been edited for length and clarity.

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This day in sports history

1901 — Parader, ridden by Fred Landry, overcomes a bad start to win the Preakness Stakes by two lengths over Sadie S.

1904 — Bryn Mawr, ridden by Eugene Hildebrand, wins the Preakness Stakes by one length over Wotan.

1958 — European Cup Final, Brussels: Francisco Gento scores the winner in extra time as Real Madrid beats AC Milan, 3-2; 3rd consecutive title for Los Blancos.

1969 — European Cup Final, Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid: AC Milan striker Pierino Prati scores 3 in 4-1 win over Ajax; second title for I Rossoneri.

1975 — 19th European Cup: Bayern Munich beats Leeds United 2-0 at Paris.

1978 — Al Unser wins his third Indianapolis 500, the fifth driver to do so, edging Tom Sneva by 8.19 seconds.

1980 — 24th European Cup: Nottingham Forest beats Hamburg 1-0 at Madrid.

1985 — The San Diego Sockers beat the Baltimore Blast 5-3 to win the MISL title in five games.

1995 — Jacques Villeneuve overcomes one penalty and wins by another in the Indianapolis 500. Villeneuve drives to victory after fellow Canadian Scott Goodyear is penalized for passing the pace car on the final restart.

1997 — 5th UEFA Champions League Final: Borussia Dortmund beats Juventus 3-1 at Munich.

2000 — Dutch swimming star Inge de Bruijn sets her third world record in three days, adding the 100 freestyle mark to the 50 and 100 butterfly marks she set previously at the Sheffield Super Grand Prix. De Bruijn becomes the first swimmer to finish under 54.00 in the 100 freestyle at 53.80 seconds.

2003 — Patrick Roy officially announces his retirement from the NHL.

2003 — 11th UEFA Champions League Final: Milan beats Juventus (0-0, 3-2 on penalties) at Manchester.

2006 — Sam Hornish Jr. overcomes a disastrous mistake in the pits and a pair of Andrettis — Marco and father Michael — to win the second-closest Indianapolis 500 ever, by .0635 seconds.

2011 — Novak Djokovic extends his perfect start to the season at the French Open, beating Juan Martin del Potro 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 for his 40th straight victory this year. Djokovic’s 40-0 start to 2011 is the second-best opening streak in the Open era, which started in 1968.

2011 — UEFA Champions League Final, London: FC Barcelona beats Manchester United, 3-1; 4th title for Barça.

2020 — The Boston Marathon canceled for the first time in its 124-year history. The race had originally been scheduled for April 20 before being postponed for five months because of the coronavirus pandemic.

2022 — UEFA Champions League Final, Paris: Carlo Ancelotti becomes first manager to win CL x 4 as Real Madrid beats Liverpool, 1-0.

Compiled by the Associated Press

This day in baseball history

1918 — Boston’s Joe Bush pitched a 1-0 one-hitter against the Chicago White Sox and drove in the lone run. The only Chicago hit was by Happy Felsch. It occurred when he threw his bat at the ball on a hit and run.

1939 — Philadelphia pitcher Robert Joyce was victimized two straight days by New York’s George Selkirk. Joyce gave up two homers to Selkirk a day earlier. Joyce came on in relief on this day and gave up two more homers to Selkirk. Selkirk ended with four homers in four at-bats against the same pitcher over two successive games. The Yankees won 9-5.

1946 — The Washington Senators beat New York 2-1 in the first night game at Yankee Stadium. The first ball was thrown out by General Electric president Charles E. Wilson.

1951 — After going 0-for-12 in his first three major league games, Willie Mays of the New York Giants hit a home run off Warren Spahn in a 4-1 loss to the Boston Braves.

1956 — Dale Long of the Pittsburgh Pirates hit a home run in his eighth consecutive game, a major league record. Long connected off Brooklyn’s Carl Erskine at Forbes Field.

1968 — The American League announced the league will be split into two divisions. The East division will consist of Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, New York and Washington. California, Chicago, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland and Seattle will make up the West.

1979 — George Brett of the Kansas City Royals hit for the cycle and added another home run to beat the Baltimore Orioles 5-4 in 16 innings.

1986 — Joe Cowley of the Chicago White Sox set a major league record by striking out the first seven batters he faced. He lasted 4 2-3 innings in a 6-3 loss to the Texas Rangers.

1995 — The White Sox and Tigers set a major league record with 12 homers, and combined for an American League-record 21 extra-base hits in Chicago’s 14-12 victory in Detroit.

1998 — Arizona manager Buck Showalter intentionally walked Barry Bonds with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the ninth, and the Diamondbacks held on to beat San Francisco 8-7.

2003 — Atlanta became the second team in major league history to start a game with three straight homers in its 15-3 win over the Reds. Rafael Furcal, Mark DeRosa and Gary Sheffield hit consecutive home runs off Jeff Austin in the bottom of the first. The Padres did it against the Giants on April 13, 1987.

2006 — Barry Bonds hit his 715th home run during the San Francisco Giants’ 6-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies to slip past Babe Ruth and pull in behind Hank Aaron and his long-standing record of 755.

2007 — Adrian Beltre tied a franchise record with four extra-base hits, including two homers, as Seattle pounded the Angels 12-5.

2010 — Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera hit three homers in a 5-4 loss to Oakland. Oakland’s Ben Sheets gave up three runs — on Cabrera’s first two homers — worked seven innings in his longest start of the season.

2012 — The Cubs end a 12-game losing streak, their longest since 1997, with an 11-7 win over the Padres at Wrigley Field.

2010 — Matt Cain pitched a one-hitter to match a career best, giving up only a two-out double in the second to Mark Reynolds, and San Francisco beat Arizona 5-0.

2013 — The Mets honor Yankees great Mariano Rivera, who has announced his retirement at the end of the year, by having him throw the ceremonial first pitch before the game between the two teams from the Big Apple at Citi Field, with retired Mets closer John Franco acting as his catcher for the occasion.

2016 — In the thirdrd inning of a game against the Dodgers, Mets P Noah Syndergaard is ejected for throwing at Chase Utley, in apparent retaliation for Utley’s aggressive slide which injured Mets SS Ruben Tejada in last year’s NLDS. Umpire Adam Hamari also tosses Mets manager Terry Collins for arguing his decision, then Utley gets his revenge when he opens the score with a solo homer off Logan Verrett in the 6th and adds a grand slam off Hansel Robles in the 7th. The Dodgers hit five homers in total as they win the game, 9-1.

2019 — Derek Dietrich continues his unlikely homer binge as he hits three, all two-run shots, in leading the Reds to an 11-6 win over the Pirates. With 17 homers this year, he has already topped his career high, and 12 of his last 17 hits have gone over the fence. For the Pirates, rookie Kevin Newman hits his first career homer, a grand slam off Lucas Sims.

2023 — Spencer Strider of the Braves becomes the fastest starting pitcher to record 100 strikeouts in a season, doing so in his 61st inning in an 11-4 win over the Phillies. Last year, Strider set the record for the fastest pitcher to reach 200 Ks in a season.

Compiled by the Associated Press

Until next time…

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

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Sinner shocked in French Open exit as Cerundolo recovers from two-sets down | Tennis News

World number one Jannick Sinner beaten by 56th-ranked Argentinian opponent Juan Manuel Cerundolo at Roland Garros.

Jannik ‌Sinner’s bid for a maiden French Open title and career Grand ⁠Slam went up ⁠in smoke as he experienced physical issues in his second-round match against Juan Manuel Cerundolo and fell to a 3-6 2-6 7-5 ⁠6-1 6-1 defeat.

Sinner arrived in Paris as the favourite for the title, having lifted claycourt titles in Monte Carlo, Madrid and ⁠Rome, with his main rival and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz ruled out with injury and Novak Djokovic searching for his best form.

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But Cerundolo tore up the script in a dramatic clash on a scorching Thursday where he held his nerve even as last year’s runner-up ‌Sinner crumbled while on the verge of a big win, sending shockwaves through Roland Garros.

As the temperature climbed over the 30 degrees Celsius (86F) mark for the first time in the afternoon, Sinner had already breezed through the first set on the back of a solitary break, and the 24-year-old Italian looked to be in cruise mode.

Cerundolo offered resistance towards the end ⁠of the second set, but the 56th-ranked Argentinian was ⁠left with a mountain to climb after Sinner unleashed a huge forehand winner to double his lead in the match for the loss of only five games.

The four-time Grand Slam champion cooled ⁠off with an ice towel in the break and turned up the intensity on his unseeded opponent in the ⁠third set to go 5-1 ahead, before he ⁠began to struggle and halted play when serving at 5-4.

Sinner returned from an off-court medical timeout five minutes later and was immediately broken for 5-5, and dropped the next two games to hand ‌the set to his opponent, who sensed the chance to pull off a major upset.

Still not at his best, Sinner surrendered the fourth set ‌tamely ‌and was broken early in the decider, as Cerundolo took full advantage to leave the Grand Slam without its title favourite.

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US attacks Bandar Abbas again: Why is the port so important for Iran? | US-Israel war on Iran News

The United States has carried out strikes near Bandar Abbas, the second attack in less than a week on Iran’s strategically important port city, escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire that has been in place between Washington and Tehran since April 8.

Reuters and The Associated Press, quoting unnamed US officials, reported that US forces shot down four Iranian drones and struck a ground control station for drones on Wednesday in Bandar Abbas.

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The strikes followed explosions in Bandar Abbas on Tuesday. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Washington of violating the ceasefire through “aggressive acts” in Hormozgan province, where the port city is located.

The semiofficial Iranian news agency Tasnim also reported that Iranian forces had fired on an “American airbase” in the region in response to a US attack near Bandar Abbas.

The escalation came after US President Donald Trump said during a cabinet meeting in Washington, DC, on Wednesday that “nobody’s going to control” the Strait of Hormuz as he spoke about ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Bandar Abbas, home to key Iranian naval forces, occupies one of the most strategically sensitive positions in the Gulf. Its location on the Strait of Hormuz has made it central to both Iran’s military position and the wider confrontation with the US. Here is what we know:

Where is Bandar Abbas?

Bandar Abbas lies on Iran’s southern coast, on the northern side of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.

The city, which had a population of more than 526,000 people at the time of Iran’s 2016 census, sits roughly 60km to 70km (35 to 45 miles) north of the strait’s narrowest point.

Its position gives Iran oversight of one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. About one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies transit through the Strait of Hormuz during peacetime.

Since the ceasefire was announced on April 8, Iran has continued to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz while US forces have imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.

Map

What is the military significance of Bandar Abbas?

Bandar Abbas is the headquarters of both Iran’s conventional navy and the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The conventional navy has used it as its base since 1977 when Iran moved much of its fleet from Khorramshahr at the western edge of Iran’s Gulf coastline, to Bandar Abbas, transforming the city into the country’s main southern naval command centre.

According to the Middle East Institute, the IRGC navy later relocated its headquarters from Tehran to Bandar Abbas to improve operational control along the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Trump and Israeli officials claimed Iran’s naval capabilities have been heavily damaged in their recent attacks, Tehran still maintains a fleet of fast attack boats operated by the IRGC navy.

The vessels are designed for “swarm” tactics and are being used against commercial ships that do not have authorisation from Iran to sail through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. They were used recently against two Indian ships and two foreign container vessels, the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and the Liberian-flagged Epaminondas, which Iran said had not been given approval to transit the waterway.

INTERACTIVE - IRGC releases map of control over Strait of Hormuz - May 5, 2026-1777975253
(Al Jazeera)

Why is Bandar Abbas important to Iran’s economy?

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a military chokepoint but also an economic lifeline.

Analysts estimated that more than 90 percent of Iranian crude shipments transit through the strait.

That makes Bandar Abbas and nearby Gulf infrastructure critical to government revenues, including the trade networks that help Iran circumvent sanctions, particularly by exporting oil to China.

Why are the US attacks significant?

Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera the ceasefire has not yet formally collapsed despite these latest exchanges of fire.

He described those incidents as “limited” compared with strikes carried out before April 8. These attacks can be characterised as “tit-for-tat military-to-military engagements rather than attacks on infrastructure or widespread destruction en masse”, he said.

“What the US military is attempting to do is explore whether it can physically deny the IRGC and Iran the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

“Iran, of course, wants to show it cannot be denied that capability.”

What does this mean for peace negotiations?

Diplomatic and military operations are unfolding simultaneously as Iran and the US have exchanged a volley of proposals and counterproposals for peace since the ceasefire began.

“This is unfolding on parallel tracks. There is a military track and a negotiating track all unfolding at the same time,” Puri said. These limited strikes are, therefore, ultimately being launched as part of the negotiations, he said.

“The negotiators can only present the leverage they have from the field of battle. Is the US going to put itself into a position in which it can say to Iranian negotiators that they do not control the Strait of Hormuz? Because if you try to amass forces around Bandar Abbas and launch attacks from that coastal area, we can strike back.

“But Iran will not want to be pushed into that position and will want to say it retains the ability to strike shipping and US bases hosted by Gulf allies and partners. So that’s the duality that’s unfolding right now.”

Puri said both Washington and Tehran still appeared to have incentives to continue mediation but the two sides are approaching negotiations with very different objectives.

“Trump and the US administration want to impose a victor’s peace on Iran. Iran’s reading of the same script that they’re being handed is very different, and Iran probably wants to stretch out these negotiations for as long as possible without conceding.”

“So again, you end up in a situation that wars elsewhere have seen – negotiations without an endpoint or even the promise of an endpoint but still an incentive for both parties to participate, for now.”

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Anthony Gordon transfer news: Why are Barcelona signing Newcastle forward?

So why have Barca moved for Gordon?

After all, the La Liga champions also had the option – and still do – of making Marcus Rashford’s loan move from Manchester United a permanent one for £26m.

However, Barca have so far prioritised a move for his international team-mate, who also offers versatility on the left and through the middle, but is three years younger and on a lower wage.

There is also a belief within the club that there is more to come from Gordon both with and without the ball.

When Barcelona manager Hansi Flick spoke about Newcastle being a “very intense” side, earlier this season, the 25-year-old will have been among those at the forefront of his thoughts with his speed and aggression.

Flick places as much importance on players’ work rate as their flair and Gordon ranks in the top 40 Premier League forwards for possession won in the final third, high pressures applied and high pressures in the opponent’s half this season.

Yet it is Gordon’s goal return in Europe which clearly caught the eye of Barca and, indeed, fellow suitors Bayern Munich.

Although there were a few penalties along the way, and he came up against some leaky defences, only Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappe (15) and Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane (14) have scored more goals in the Champions League this season than Gordon (10).

It is a stage Gordon has relished, having sounded like someone who had grown a little jaded with how the Premier League had become “a lot slower and a lot more set-piece based”.

“Sometimes it’s about duels – who wins the duels wins the game – or moments,” he said of the top flight back in January.

“The Champions League is a bit more of an older style game. It’s a bit more football based. Teams come and try and play proper football.”

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Escape or escalate: Trump’s tactical crossroads in the Iran conflict – Middle East Monitor

The war that Donald Trump declared won last month looks rather different from the inside of the Pentagon. The resulting stalemate has drained American military stockpiles, emboldened Iranian commanders, and left the US with far worse options than before the conflict began.

The administration’s triumphalist framing has struck a jarring note among those who have spent careers studying the Iranian military and the limits of American power projection. Declaring victory when the enemy is still standing, still armed, and still controlling the waterway you went to war over is not a strategy. It is a wish dressed up as a press release.

At the heart of the impasse are two demands that Tehran has consistently and categorically rejected. Iran will not surrender what it regards as its sovereign right to develop its uranium program, and it will not yield control of the Strait of Hormuz. Those two positions were Iran’s red lines before the fighting started. They remain Iran’s red lines now. Nothing in between has changed.

What has changed is the arithmetic of munitions. The United States entered this conflict with a military built around expensive, technologically sophisticated weapons systems, precision instruments that take years to design, years more to manufacture, and that have now been expended at a rate the American defense industrial base is poorly positioned to replenish. Iran, by contrast, relies on a dispersed network of robotic small boats, undersea mines, tactical ballistic missiles, and unmanned systems. These weapons are cheap, simple, and easy to produce at scale.

The United States essentially deployed a Ferrari into a demolition derby. The Iranians didn’t need high-end technology; they just needed a relentless volume of cheaper assets to overwhelm the defense.

Trump, for his part, has shown no appetite for nuance. “We have totally obliterated their military capacity, there’s nothing left, believe me, nothing,” he told supporters at a rally in Georgia. Pentagon planners reviewing the same battlefield data have reached a rather different conclusion.

The American strikes produced mixed results. Iran does not maintain a conventional naval fleet or a modern air force in the Western sense. Its control of the strait rests not on destroyers or fighter wings but on a distributed, resilient system of asymmetric capabilities. The Iranian systems that dispersed into the terrain absorbed the strikes and began reconstituting almost immediately. Defense analysts point out that the Iranians have adapted from what they observed, replenished their stocks, and may now be better positioned than when the conflict began.

The strategic picture is further complicated by the political pressures that shaped the original decision to go to war. Analysts describe a decision driven less by tactical opportunity than by commitments made to Israeli leadership and to influential pro-Israel donors whose support was central to Trump’s political coalition. The result was a military campaign calibrated to political timetables rather than operational logic.

READ: Israeli premier expresses concern over US handling of Iran nuclear file in call with Trump: Report

Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, a member of the Armed Services Committee, called the conduct of the conflict “a case study in how not to use military force.” Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, before his defeat in his primary, was more pointed: “We went in without a declaration of war, without a clear objective, without an exit strategy, and now we’re supposed to celebrate because we used up half our missile inventory and the Iranians are still there.”

The regional picture adds further complexity. Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf monarchies are acutely aware of their own exposure. A major Iranian strike on above-ground oil and desalination plants could critically impede the GCC’s government’s ability to maintain economic prosperity. The GCC states have no appetite for an escalation that leaves their vital water infrastructure in ruins. While they favor the containment of Iran, preventing a regional war is a matter of sheer survival.

The broader strategic damage extends well beyond the Gulf.

The conflict has exposed, with uncomfortable clarity, the brittleness of an American military model that prioritized theoretical sophistication over the practical demands of sustained combat. The long-overlooked vulnerability of the missile supply chain has now emerged as the primary constraint on future American options. Restoring that capacity, according to officials, will require years of industrial retooling.

Washington has come to realize that Iran acutely recognized US vulnerabilities, designing asymmetric systems specifically to deplete America’s most expensive capabilities with its cheapest assets. This is not a temporary setback; it is a structural crisis.

For now, President Trump appears caught between the political cost of acknowledging stalemate and the military risk of a second round of strikes that the Pentagon itself doubts would achieve different results. The operational pause is not a logistical necessity. The forces are forward-deployed and ready. The pause is a search for a rationale, a way to resume the fight that does not require the White House to explain why the first attempt failed.

By most accounts, the search has not yet succeeded.

OPINION: The bell tolls in Beijing: Xi’s warning and the shadow of Thucydides

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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How Middle East Supply Risks Are Growing in Impact on Global Oil Trading

The Middle East has been a difficult region to deal with in oil markets. When it comes to energy geographies, the region has proven to be a disproportionately significant part of the world’s energy resources, with export facilities traversing a handful of maritime routes and political situations that have been tense, if not outright volatile, at times. The change in 2025 and into 2026 isn’t the nature of the forces but rather the confluence of overlapping pressures: ongoing sanctions enforcement, multiple theaters of conflict, OPEC+ tensions that are more public than ever in previous years, and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which now seem to have become a semi-permanent part of the shipping route landscape.

There is no background information for commodity traders, market analysts, and energy investors. It’s a real-time, constantly evolving dynamic that can make all the difference in the day-to-day performance of prices, and it’s particularly important when prices are sliding around rapidly, and the stories behind them are changing just as fast.

The Behavior of Prices and the Risk of Middle East Supplies

The area is responsible for about one-third of the world’s crude production. That should make it significant in and of itself. What makes matters worse is that export infrastructure is concentrated in a handful of terminals, pipelines, and maritime corridors where a disproportionately large share of oil is exported. The disruption of any of them (even for a moment) reduces a large supply signal to an extremely short time frame.

Traders who follow crude oil price live data are the first ones to witness this. Real-time feeds are a reflection of more than just the fundamental supply-demand elements, but the market’s real-time assessment of the value of geopolitical risk and how much it “should” be worth at any given moment. A news event, which is a minor detail in a more stable environment, can cause future prices to move $5 or more in less than an hour. The consistent and tough question – and it is a tough one – is, which events actually have physical supply implications and which ones are sentiment-driven moves that die in a session or two?

The Strait of Hormuz

About 20-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products go through the Strait of Hormuz, which is about 20% of the world’s oil consumption. No readily available bypasses can be found that can absorb that flow at a similar cost. There are partial alternatives, including the IPSA pipeline and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, but they would not even come close to filling the deficit should the Hormuz be closed en masse.

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It is a strait between Oman and Iran. Geography makes it so that any serious disruption in U.S.-Iran relations or of security conditions in the Gulf in general puts Hormuz back on the market’s agenda. Traders are all familiar with this: when there is a lot of Iranian tension, the futures positioning will always reflect the chokepoint risk, even if there is no incident per se.

Production Outages That Don’t Make the Front Page

The issue of the supply is something that generally doesn’t get the same kind of attention it should get, but the clearest example of this recurring issue is Libya. In recent years, internal political squabbles about how to divide up oil revenues have led to several production shutdowns that have temporarily increased the tightness of the light sweet crude grades refined by European and Asian plants. The disruptions are likely to persist when there is no political agreement, and the pattern is robust. In recent years, Iraq’s export pipeline to the North through Turkey has also been down for extended periods of time. These relatively inconspicuous disruptions can add up and impact medium-term supply dynamics, though not necessarily have the same impact as a more conspicuous incident.

Key Risk Factors Shaping Market Sentiment in 2026

The Middle East is a geopolitical risk that has many variables. It’s a combination of interwoven pressures that work in various ways and to varying effects on the length of the price impact. The issues that currently have the greatest attention of serious analysts are generally of three types:

  • Export infrastructure and production infrastructure are currently under physical threat to production.
  • Sanctions regimes and the dynamics of their enforcement.
  • Disruption of shipping routes and attendant disruption of the trade economics.

Everything is unique, and sometimes they are not in the same direction at the same time. That’s part of what makes the current situation more complicated than any one risk headline implies.

Active Conflict Zones and Exposure to Infrastructure

The latest example of large-scale infrastructure targeting is the 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities in the country, which was carried out using drones and missiles. The loss in output occurred temporarily, amounting to about 5.7 million bpd, the largest sudden supply shock in modern oil market history. The recovery was quicker than many expected, partly because of the operational robustness of Aramco and partly because the situation was swiftly contained diplomatically. But the event has permanently changed the way markets view the vulnerability of infrastructure in the Gulf, and that repricing has not been complete.

The Persistent Iranian Supply Question

Iran’s petroleum sales have also been sustained in the face of sanctions, largely via Asian markets out of reach to Western sanctions. A full-fledged deal between Tehran and Western governments has yet to be hammered out, as of early 2026. That has left volumes of Iranian supply in a limbo of sorts: they could be rapidly reduced by stepped-up enforcement, and they could be dramatically increased by a change in diplomatic circumstances. Both of these results can have significant price consequences, and even the uncertainty can be a factor in the market without a clear decision.

Infrastructure Concentration Risk

The concentration levels in Saudi Arabia’s export system warrant a more significant focus than is generally found outside of export specialist circles. Abqaiq processes and stabilizes a huge percentage of Saudi crude before it is shipped to export terminals, removing the sulfur from it. That kind of ‘single point of failure’ is not typical in most industrial supply chains. In the case of oil, it’s a structural aspect of the market and one that has been proven, not just thought.

OPEC+ Internal Dynamics

However, OPEC+ compliance has been quite lackluster at times, notably from Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have had a history of overproduction. This gives rise to an everlasting discrepancy between OPEC+ declarations and the actual supply data. For analysts, the bottom line is that it is important not to take production decisions at face value but to also consider the track record of implementation once a deal has been agreed on to see what the real supply impact was.

Non-State Actor Activity and Shipping Friction

Since late 2023, the Houthis have started to attack commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea more frequently, and these attacks have persisted through 2025. What those disruptions drove home is that it’s not necessary to blow a wellhead to impact oil market economics. A round-the-Cape voyage will increase the time in transit by about ten to fourteen days, as well as the fuel costs. During periods of increased Houthi activity, insurance costs for tankers traveling in the Gulf area skyrocketed. Both impacts are not a direct factor in the crude benchmarks, but both impact the effective landed cost of Middle East barrels in destination markets.

How the Market Prices Geopolitical Risk

Knowing the difference is important, as geopolitical events do not affect oil prices in a single manner. Some effects are immediate and visible: a surge in the price of Brent futures within minutes of an incident report. Others come more slowly, via changes in freight rates, changes in the repricing of insurance, and changes in buyer behavior, which may take days or weeks to be reflected in trade flow data. The rate of these impacts varies, and so do their effects.

Then there is the issue of what the market “already” had in place whether there was an event or not. When there is a constant regional tension, there is usually some risk premium in prices. The incremental market move may therefore be less than anticipated when an event then reinforces concerns, the surprise element of the event, which is typically the one that produces the biggest market moves, is already discounted.

Risk Premium in Practice

Geopolitical risk premiums in times of heightened Middle East tension have varied from around $4 to $10 per barrel, depending on the market participants’ views on the probability of actual physical supply disruptions in the case of Brent crude, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s a fairly broad window for economic trading, and it has a tendency to close up very fast when the tension subsides and without a supply event, which is the more common scenario.

The geopolitical risk premium factors analysts may consider are:

  • The nearness to active conflict, producing fields, or the working export terminals.
  • Production capacity that would be available to make up for the loss of production elsewhere.
  • The availability and magnitude of the IEA’s strategic stockpiles to be tapped.
  • Current tanker market conditions and the viability of an alternative route.
  • Diplomatic messages sent by governments in the area, including the United States and other great powers
  • Past examples of similar events, which have had identifiable supply impacts.

It is not easy to give exact weights to these inputs. Part of the reason for the price action to seemingly be different with comparable geopolitical events can be due to different analysts forming different conclusions from the same events.

Historical Supply Disruptions and Price Responses

The following table shows some of the more significant supply events that took place in the Middle East and the approximate market impact. The trend of most entries was that the first price movement has been greater than the actual physical supply effect, at times much greater, and then it has partially retraced to a more stable situation.

Event Year Estimated Supply Impact Approximate Brent Price Reaction
Abqaiq/Khurais Attacks (Saudi Arabia) 2019 ~5.7 mb/d temporary loss ~15% intraday spike
Libyan Civil War Output Collapse 2011 ~1.4 mb/d reduction ~$20/bbl over several weeks
U.S. Re-imposition of Iran Sanctions 2018 ~1-1.5 mb/d reduction ~15% sustained over several months
Iraq-Northern Field Disruptions 2014 Partial northern output loss ~$10/bbl elevated premium
Houthi Red Sea Disruptions 2023-24 Rerouting; limited direct supply loss Moderate – primarily freight cost impact
Iran Sanctions + Red Sea Friction 2025-26 ~0.8-1.2 mb/d constrained Iranian output Persistent $4-8/bbl risk premium in Brent

The 2025-2026 entry is a more diffuse form of market pressure than those acute events listed above. It is not one particular incident, but rather sanctions enforcement and Iranian volumes kept low and shipping activity in the Red Sea continuing to cause friction in the transport system, which has kept transport costs elevated. The World Economic Outlook from the IMF pointed out that this type of persistent supply constraint is likely to have a longer-lasting impact on medium-term price expectations than acute supply shocks, which markets have historically been able to absorb and turn around in relatively short periods of time. Thus, a slow-burning risk premium can be more ‘sticky’ than a dramatic risk premium.

Broader Market Implications

Crude oil benchmarks are not the only place where supply risk from the Middle East exists. It extends out to related markets in ways that are not always apparent when the world’s focus is on the Brent or WTI headline price.

The second-order victim is likely to be refined product markets. In times of crude supply shortages or increased uncertainty, refinery margins and regional product availability may be affected to a greater extent, and the effects on end consumers may be magnified, especially in regions where there is little local refining or a high concentration of import logistics. The energy crisis of 2022 in Europe was a prime example of how the upstream pressure to supply energy flows through the downstream more quickly than most market players would have thought.

Other segments of the market that are impacted by increased supply risks in the Middle East are:

  • Tanker freight rates, which can also rise sharply without reference to crude prices during times of major-scale rerouting.
  • In oil-dependent economies, currency markets can be affected by changes in the prices of the oil that the state supplies, which change expectations of fiscal revenue and sovereign credit risk.
  • LNG markets with some short-term fuel switching demand in the exposed economies as a result of regional geopolitical pressure.
  • In agricultural commodity markets, where there is known overlap between energy input costs and food production, processing, and transport economics

Strategic Reserve Releases (SRRs) as a Counterweight

During the IEA’s coordinated strategic reserve release in 2022, it was seen that policy tools are in place to mitigate short-term supply shocks and that they can be implemented on a material scale when political conditions are right. However, there are drawbacks to those processes. During that time, reservoir levels were lowered significantly, and a rebuild takes time. There are also doubts about the effectiveness as a deterrent because, over time, markets will factor in the possibility of a release during the next big disruption event, effectively canceling the effect of a release in advance.

Geopolitical Risk Analysis: What It Does and Doesn’t Accomplish

It’s easy to fall into the temptation, because of the amounts of money potentially involved, of viewing geopolitical risk analysis as a predictive tool. It generally lacks it there. It’s actually helpful for comprehending markets and its actions, as well as for charting structural weaknesses that are price-relevant. What it doesn’t do well is tell you when an event will happen, or how big the market’s reaction will be when it does.

Instead of getting lost in qualifications, the specific limitations should be called out:

  • Escalation and de-escalation are non-linear and unpredictable to a great extent. Conflict situations that appear to be intractable can be solved in a flash, and stable times can fall apart in an instant. Both directions remain silent and don’t herald themselves.
  • When demand for a commodity is the same, the market price may be quite different in the two market conditions. There are interactions between the geopolitical trigger and positioning, sentiment and open interest that are not modelable in advance.
  • Secondary effects (such as freight repricing, product supply shifts and insurance cost changes) happen at varying rates to the initial crude price move, and thus the total impact of the market is more difficult to gauge in real time.
  • Analytical path dependency can occur when geopolitical narratives set up a framework that later information gets filtered through, without being recognized as such.

All this does not negate the analysis. It’s about calibration and about honesty when the power of explanation runs out, and speculation sets in.

Conclusion

Middle East supply risk is not a succession of shocks that will come and go and be completely addressed but rather a structural state in global oil markets. The combination of production weight, geographic concentration of export infrastructure, and political complexity of the region always comes with a certain level of supply uncertainty as a base case. The level of that uncertainty and the extent to which that uncertainty is priced into securities on a given day are what change.

The hard part for traders, analysts, and energy investors is not recognizing that there is risk – that’s obvious. It’s gaining a good enough sense of what matters most at a given moment, what the big picture supply-demand dynamics are, and at what point a careful study of the facts begins to look like well-informed guesswork. The clear understanding of that boundary is, in fact, probably more valuable than any single analytical framework that can be applied to the boundary.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, commodity, or derivative product. Trading in energy markets, including crude oil futures, CFDs, and related instruments, involves substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of capital invested. Past market behavior and historical price patterns referenced in this article are not reliable indicators of future performance. Geopolitical developments described may not materialize as anticipated or may evolve in ways that differ materially from historical precedent. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions. Nothing in this article should be interpreted as a trading signal, directional market recommendation, or endorsement of any specific trading approach.

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Argentina’s ‘El Loco’ faces Uruguay mutiny ahead of World Cup | World Cup 2026 News

Marcelo Bielsa is widely revered as a pioneer of coaching, but his unconventional methods risk ruining Uruguay’s World Cup chances before the tournament has even begun, with rumours of dressing room unrest.

Nicknamed “El Loco”, which means madman, the 70-year-old’s bold, attacking approach has proved an inspiration to a younger generation of coaches, including Pep Guardiola and USA boss Mauricio Pochettino.

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Yet, his famously demanding standards have often caused friction during a nomadic coaching career, and his stint in Uruguay has been no exception.

The Argentinian’s arrival initially generated huge excitement, which was fuelled by landmark victories over Brazil and Argentina in qualifying.

But they needed that flying start just to make it through after winning just three of their final 12 qualifiers.

The tipping point for many in the squad came at the Copa America in 2024.

Uruguay finished a creditable third, eliminating Brazil along the way, but Bielsa’s intensity during the monthlong tournament did not endear him to his players.

Luis Suarez hit out at Bielsa’s methods after retiring from international football months later, claiming he had reduced former Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez to tears at half-time of a 2-0 win over Argentina, such was the force of his criticism.

Bielsa accepted that after the former Barcelona striker’s backlash, his “authority was affected” with the rest of the dressing room.

Results have also regressed, with Bielsa stating he was “ashamed” by a 5-1 friendly defeat by the USA in November.

Now, as his third World Cup with a third different nation approaches, the question is whether Bielsa can win back the faith of his players for a country so used to punching above its weight on the world stage.

And there are doubts as to how his high-energy style will fare in the gruelling conditions of Miami and Guadalajara, where Uruguay will face Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde and Spain in Group F.

Pochettino hails Bielsa as a ‘genius’

Bielsa made his name winning three league titles in Argentina with Newell’s Old Boys, where the stadium now bears his name, and Velez Sarsfield.

“For me, he’s a person I will always admire,” said Pochettino, whom Bielsa recruited for Newell’s as a 13-year-old.

“He’s a genius. A person with charisma and a personality very different from us, normal coaches, and that’s what makes him special.”

Bielsa’s sides in Bilbao with Athletic Club, where he reached the Europa League and Copa del Rey finals in 2011-12, and Marseille, where he led Ligue 1 at the halfway stage in 2014-15, were also admired but ended up empty-handed as their energy ran out.

In Leeds, murals still bear Bielsa’s face, four years on from his departure, after he led a sleeping giant of English football back to the Premier League for the first time in 16 years in 2020.

His time there ended in familiar fashion with an exhausted squad that was relegated to the second tier the season after he departed.

Yet, the esteem with which he is held for his daring tactical approach endures.

“To be loved is this biggest title, bigger than the Champions League or Premier League or whatever,” said Guardiola, who went to visit Bielsa in Argentina before setting out as a coach at Barcelona.

“To be loved is the most important thing, and I think Marcelo has that more than any other manager in the world.”

Bielsa, who oversaw Argentina’s group-stage elimination in 2002 and Chile’s round-of-16 loss to hosts Brazil in 2014, has already hinted ‌that he may not remain as manager ⁠of Uruguay beyond ⁠July, saying his job with the team ends with the World Cup.

“Our job ends with the World Cup,” ⁠Bielsa said at an event organised by the Uruguayan Football Association last Friday.

Although he did not elaborate on his remarks, local media reported ⁠that the Argentinian will not continue once his current contract expires at the end of the June 11-July 19 tournament.

“It is a miracle in any ‌professional’s sporting career to take part in the World Cup,” he said. “I will be forever grateful to Uruguay for allowing me to enjoy a competition like the World Cup.”

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Delcy’s ‘Gatekeeper’: Sources Say ex-Trump Official Claver-Carone Holds Keys to Caracas

The US has leveraged threats to extract major concessions from Caracas, with Claver-Carone allegedly playing a key role. (Archive)

A mastermind of Trump’s hardline Latin American policies, Mauricio Claver-Carone no longer serves in the administration. But according to well-placed sources, he’s “picking who can operate” in Venezuela, controlling access to the government, and creating conflicts of interest.

Speaking with reporters on May 21, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez was on her way to New Delhi to discuss energy issues, and that he would be in India as well.

“This is an important trip, I’m glad we’re able to do it,” Rubio chirped after explaining the trio of nations would discuss how to increase Venezuelan oil sales to India.

His statement — and his announcement of Rodriguez’s trip before she had — perfectly illustrated Washington’s newfound dynamic with the Venezuelan government. Following over twenty years of hostile relations with Venezuela’s socialist-oriented leadership, the US Secretary of State was apparently so intimately involved with day to day affairs in Caracas that he was claiming responsibility for Rodriguez’s international itinerary.

In fact, according to an insider who enjoys close contacts within both the Venezuelan and US governments, Rubio’s influence over Rodriguez is said to be traced to one “gatekeeper”: former Trump Latin America envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone. “Mauricio [Claver-Carone] is picking who can operate and Delcy [Rodriguez] is taking instructions,” the source told The Grayzone. 

A former senior US official with access to leadership in both Caracas and Washington offered the same assessment, remarking to The Grayzone, “Mauricio’s calling the shots on private sector economic positions, and if anyone wants in, they have to go to him.”

Hand-selected by former National Security Advisor John Bolton to serve as his Latin America charge during Trump’s first term, Claver-Carone no longer occupies an official governmental role. Instead, he has leveraged his legacy in the public sector to establish a Miami-based investment firm called the Lara Fund which could become a key player in the MAGA financial feeding frenzy in Caracas.

Described by the New York Times as the “architect of Trump’s tough Latin America policies,” Claver-Carone is a Cuban-American regime change zealot who once engaged in fisticuffs with Cuban diplomats as a young man. During Trump’s first term, he unleashed a financial “flamethrower” on Cuba, issuing scores of new sanctions that unraveled the Obama-era normalization policy and plunged the island back into economic misery. 

Claver-Carone has similarly masterminded many of the policies that define Trump’s relationship with Venezuela, from its recognition of the previously unknown Juan Guaido as the country’s “interim president” to the deportation of hundreds of Venezuelan migrants from the US to El Salvador’s maximum security CECOT prison. Many of those migrants had been prompted to journey to the US by the economically crushing sanctions unleashed at Claver-Carone’s direction. 

The Grayzone’s sources described the Trump veteran as the architect of the military invasion that saw Maduro spirited away to a federal penitentiary and installed Rodriguez as president following a stand-down by Venezuelan security forces.

“If he was in charge of implementing the kinetic side, maybe [Rodriguez] thinks she has to listen to him on finance,” the Venezuela insider said of Claver-Carone.

report this January by investigative journalist Aram Roston described Claver-Carone as a “key backer” of Rodriguez following Maduro’s abduction, and cited sources who claimed he exercised decisive influence over Venezuela policy despite having left the administration.

Claver-Carone is now said to be at the heart of the most sensitive and consequential task Venezuela faces: the restructuring of its $170 billion in defaulted sovereign debt. Forced from several previous positions by corruption scandals and rancorous clashes, an operative with no official governmental position appears to be shaping the economic contours of Project Venezuela. 

“He’s got a lock on everything”

This May, the US Treasury Department authorized Caracas to hire a financial advisor to assist with the herculean task of restructuring its debt. The Venezuelan government selected Centerview Partners, a top-drawer investment and financial advisory firm based in New York City.

According to the former US senior official, Claver-Carone’s romantic partner and business colleague, Jessica Bedoya, boarded a private jet to Caracas soon after the big announcement, arriving with a top advisor from Centerview. It was her second trip to the Venezuelan capital, they said, after visiting in February to discuss financial matters. 

Claver-Carone did not respond to calls to his personal phone from The Grayzone, or to detailed questions sent by text and email. 

His partner, Bedoya, is the founder of the Lara Fund investment firm where he serves as managing partner. Her bio notes that she has also worked in the CIA and National Security Council.

Jessica Bedoya and Mauricio Claver-Carone’s headshots, as featured on Lara Fund’s webpage

Some insiders worry that her reported presence in the Venezuelan capital, together with Claver-Carone’s outsized influence, could represent a conflict of interest, allowing them to steer debt restructuring agreements to their own personal benefit.

“Now he’s got a lock on everything,” the Venezuela insider said of Claver-Carone. “He could say to anyone who wants to work in Venezuela, I’m the guy. I have the keys. If you want to play ball, invest with me.”

The former US official said Claver-Carone was raising capital for his Lara Fund while he served as a special government employee at the State Department. While Bedoya was running the firm, they said Claver-Carone was leveraging his position inside the Trump administration to pitch potential investors.

“Arbitrary and authoritarian actions that showed him to be a real thug”

When Trump appointed Claver-Carone to serve as the first American president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in 2020, he hired Bedoya as his chief-of-staff. The couple’s secret romance at the bank triggered an embarrassing ethics investigation after a hand-written contract was discovered showing they had agreed to pursue “absolute happiness,” and included a clause with punishments including “candle wax and a naughty box” if either party breached the deal. 

An independent probe ordered by the IDB discovered that Claver-Carone had increased his paramour’s salary by 40% – a $133,000 reward in less than a year. Investigators also found that the couple had racked up expenses on an IDB credit card during romantic getaways. 

Claver-Carone refused to participate in the investigation while accusing its authors of “fabrications.” In the end, IDB governors voted unanimously in favor of his firing. The US government endorsed their decision.

“President Claver-Carone’s refusal to fully cooperate with the investigation, and his creation of a climate of fear of retaliation among staff and borrowing countries, has forfeited the confidence of the bank’s staff and shareholders and necessitates a change in leadership,” they wrote.

The Argentine governor of IDB, Guillermo Francos, delivered a similarly harsh assessment of Claver-Carone’s tenure. “Claver was a disaster for several reasons,” Francos remarked in 2022. “For having an inappropriate relationship, for having disproportionately increased the salary of this inappropriate relationship, for having lied, and for these arbitrary and authoritarian actions that showed him to be a real thug.”

When Claver-Carone returned to the second Trump administration, it was not long before his proclivity for conflict jeopardized his position.

Throughout 2025, Claver-Carone’s spiteful attitude reportedly complicated Trump administration attempts to prop up a key right-wing ally in South America, Argentine President Javier Milei. Milei’s chief of staff happened to be Guillermo Francos – the former IDB governor whom Claver-Carone held personally responsible for outing his secret relationship with Bedoya. According to the Argentine paper Clarin, Claver-Carone attempted to retaliate by unsuccessfully pressuring Milei to fire Francos. He then attempted to undermine a major IMF loan package to Argentina by demanding the country first sever its credit line from China. This was met with an apparent rebuke from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who visited Buenos Aires to express confidence in the IMF loan just weeks after Argentina’s central bank extended its credit line from Beijing.

The following month, in May 2025, Claver-Carone announced he was leaving the State Department to return to his Lara Fund. His departure gave the appearance that he had been forced out of his job. However, he maintained his clout through his direct line to Rubio.

The former US official told The Grayzone that Claver-Carone is now angling to become a Cuban American version of Jared Kushner, the Trump son-in-law who has leveraged his proximity to the president and role as Middle East negotiator to rake in billions from Israel and several Gulf monarchies despite having no official government title. To do so, he has allegedly inserted himself into the byzantine process of restructuring Venezuela’s debt.

When the Trump administration announced that Venezuela could hire a financial advisor to assist with its sovereign debt, Rodriguez initially planned a public bidding process for the coveted position. But then, according to the ex-US official, Claver-Carone issued support for Centerview, leading to the firm’s selection. (Opposition bloggers have speculated that Centerview was chosen because one of its partners, Matthieu Pigasse, is a self-described “pro-market socialist” who previously worked on deals with Maduro and Venezuela’s state owned PDVSA oil company.)

In recent weeks, according to sources, Claver-Carone has attempted to undermine financial advisors who had been working with the Venezuelan government to restructure its debt since 2014. 

They said that when Claver-Carone’s partner, Bedoya, arrived in Caracas this month, allegedly on a private jet with Pigasse, she began pushing to remove the advisory mandate from David Syed, a seasoned French lawyer who had advised Caracas on debt-related issues for over a decade, and is considered incorruptible. 

“The effort to push [Syed] out created a lot of tension,” remarked the Venezuela insider. “You can’t understand debt restructuring by parachuting in without his knowledge.”

Syed did not respond to The Grayzone’s request for comment. Hamouda Chekir, another Centerview partner who works on Venezuela’s debt, did not respond to calls and text messages sent to his personal phone.

Scandal-stained firms as vehicles for extracting profit from Venezuela

Just before leaving the State Department in May 2025, Claver-Carone convinced Rubio not to renew a sanctions waiver that allowed Chevron to sell Venezuelan oil in the US market. In doing so, he eliminated a mechanism which was explicitly designed to promote transparency and prevent local officials from skimming cash. 

This January, after abducting Maduro, the Trump administration granted confidential licenses to a pair of notoriously corrupt trading houses, Vitol and Trafigura, to export Venezuelan oil. The deal came months after Trump’s re-election campaign received a whopping $6 million donation from a senior trader at Vitol. 

Robert Bachmann, an analyst at the Swiss watchdog Public Eye, told the Washington Post at the time, “Trump is taking advantage of firms that know how to circumvent regulation.”

Both companies had been caught engaging in a series of elaborate bribery schemes across Latin America and Africa. In 2020, the Department of Justice (DOJ) forced Vitol to pay a $135 million penalty for bribing officials for licenses in Mexico, Ecuador and Brazil. Trafigura paid a similarly staggering fine in 2024 for a lucrative bribery scheme in Brazil. In the US, Vitol was rung up by the California Attorney General for manipulating spot market prices of oil.

But almost as soon as the Trump administration entered office, it neutered the DOJ corrupt foreign practices division charged with enforcing the judgments against Trafigura and Vitol on the grounds that it was “impeding America’s national security objectives.” 

Now, the profits these scandal-stained firms generate through oil sales abroad – including to Israel – are channeled back into a US-run account with little public oversight. A percentage of sales is then delivered back to the Venezuelan government. Where the rest goes is anybody’s guess. 

“The Venezuelans are the owners of the oil, and we know nothing. There is no transparency,” said José Guerra, an economist aligned with the Venezuelan opposition, complained to the Washington Post about the Trafigura and Vitol licensing agreements.

Trump, for his part, has essentially admitted Venezuelan oil profits are channeled into a slush fund for his international rampage. “We’ve taken out so much oil in Venezuela, we’ve paid for the cost of the war [with Iran] about 25 times over,” the president boasted during a May 23 campaign rally. While the president’s claim was absurd, as Venezuela is currently exporting only about one million barrels of oil a month – hardly enough to cover a full day of warfare – it revealed his avaricious attitude toward the entire operation.

Among certain Venezuelan opposition activists, Claver-Carone has become a figure of contempt who is partially blamed for Trump’s declaration that their de facto leader, the coup plotter and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, “doesn’t have the support within, or the respect within, the country.”

The Trump administration’s embrace of Delcy Rodriguez, and the Venezuelan president’s faithful compliance with Washington’s financial schemes, have prompted some top Democrats to adopt Machado as a partisan cudgel. This January, Chris Murphy, a ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, praised the opposition leader as “impressive” following a meeting on Capitol Hill, while taking a nasty swipe at Rodriguez. Machado “reminded us that Trump replaced Maduro with Maduro’s head of torture,” Murphy proclaimed.

If the Democrats take Congress after this year’s midterm elections, the Trump administration’s dealings in Venezuela will face intense scrutiny from the House Oversight Committee. Bipartisan pressure will then build for fresh elections to usher in a new government. “Delcy Rodríguez is a terrible person,” the regime change-obsessed Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott told the Wall Street Journal this month. “We’ve got to have an election soon.”

In the meantime, a flock of MAGA-aligned financial vultures has swooped into Caracas to feast on the petro-state’s post-Maduro carcass. Donald Trump Jr. is said to be hunting for opportunities in the capital for his 1789 Capital fund, while a startup backed by pro-Trump tech oligarchs Peter Thiel and Palmer Luckey, Erebor Bank, just struck a lucrative deal to reconnect Venezuela’s central bank to the global economy. In the midst of this frenzy, a figure with no government title, Claver-Carone, appears to be establishing the new pecking order.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

Source: The Grayzone



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