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Dodgers defeat the Royals

From Sam Farmer: Tarik Skubal never located his best stuff Monday, missing the strike zone with his fastball far more frequently than usual.

The Dodgers found their way out of their recent downward spiral, though, and that was enough of a relief for their new ace and back-to-back Cy Young winner. Skubal pitched five innings, giving up four hits and three runs. He struck out six.

“I kind of sprayed the ball a little bit,” Skubal said after a 6-5 win over Kansas City in his Dodger Stadium debut. “That’s kind of unusual for me, especially with my command, but I thought I competed well and gave our team a chance to win.”

That was a welcome change for the down-on-their-luck Dodgers, who entered having lost eight of nine, including sweeps by the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs. The Dodgers had lost seven in a row before finally winning Saturday at Arizona, then promptly resumed the slide Sunday with a loss to the Diamondbacks.

So it’s hard to know whether Monday’s win marked a turnaround or simply another tourniquet to pause the bleeding. Tuesday, it’s Blake Snell’s turn. He underwent surgery on his left elbow and hasn’t pitched for the Dodgers since May 9.

The Dodgers (71-48) are hoping for an encore performance at the plate, where Monday there were some familiar flickers of life.Freddie Freeman had three of their 10 hits, driving in two runs. Shohei Ohtani had two hits and scored twice. And Max Muncy — on his bobblehead night — had a bases-loaded double that gave the Dodgers a 5-3 lead in the sixth and ignited the antsy crowd.

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Dodgers box score

MLB standings

Angels lose to the Rangers

Brandon Nimmo singled home the go-ahead run in the 10th inning and the Texas Rangers beat the Angels 4-1 on Monday night to snap a five-game road losing streak.

Texas (60-59) has won five of its last six overall and is a half-game behind AL West-leading Houston.

Nimmo and Elias Díaz each finished with two hits and an RBI.

Peyton Gray (6-0) pitched a 1-2-3 ninth to earn the win. Jacob Latz worked a scoreless 10th for his 23rd save.

Mike Trout hit a 418-foot shot for the Angels (45-74), his 20th home run this season, in the first inning. The three-time AL MVP was one for two and walked three times, one intentional.

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Angels box score

MLB standings

Former NFL quarterback Derek Carr has joined UCLA’s coaching staff as a special advisor to coach Bob Chesney.

The Bruins announced the hiring Monday of the 35-year-old Carr, who is volunteering in his first major coaching role.

The longtime Raiders starter will help Chesney and the Bruins’ offensive staff with game planning and strategy, and he will work with UCLA‘s quarterbacks.

“His experience, leadership and football knowledge will be an incredible resource for our coaching staff and student-athletes,” Chesney said in a statement. “What stands out most is his passion for the game and his commitment to developing young people. Derek will have a tremendous impact on our players and is a great addition to our program.”

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This day in sports history

1919 — Green Bay Packers football club founded by George Calhoun and Curly Lambeau — named after sponsor Indian Packing Company.

1943 — Volo Song, driven by Ben White, wins the Hambletonian Stakes in the third heat.

1948 — Demon Hanover, driven by Harrison Hoyt, wins the Hambletonian Stakes in straight heats.

1974 — Lee Trevino beats Jack Nicklaus by one stroke to capture the PGA Championship.

1979 — Peter Haughton wins his second International Trot at Roosevelt Raceway by driving Doublemint to victory.

1984 — Carl Lewis duplicates Jesse Owens′ 1936 feat, winning his 4th Olympic gold medal as part of the US 4 x 100m relay team; world record (37.83).

1984 — Britain’s Sebastian Coe sets an Olympic record in the 1,500 meter with a 3:32.53 winning time.

1985 — Hubert Green beats defending champion Lee Trevino by two strokes to take the PGA Championship.

1986 — Bob Tway’s bunker shot on the final hole gives him the PGA Championship over Greg Norman.

1991 — John Daly, the last alternate to make the field, wins the 73rd PGA Championship with a 1-under 71 to finish three strokes ahead of Bruce Lietzke.

1995 — Michael Johnson wins the 200 meters in 19.79 seconds in the World Track & Field Championships to become the first runner to capture the 200 and 400 meters in a major championship.

1996 — Mark Brooks makes a 5-foot birdie putt on the first hole of a playoff with Kenny Perry to win the PGA Championship.

2002 — Karrie Webb’s latest comeback establishes a new standard of excellence on the LPGA Tour: the Super Slam — winning the four tournaments currently regarded as majors as well as the du Maurier, which lost its major status in 2000 after 21 years. Webb shoots a 6-under 66, rallying from three strokes behind to the first three-time winner in the Women’s British Open.

2008 — The US 4 x 100m freestyle replay team of Michael Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Cullen Jones & Jason Lezak beats France by 8 seconds to win gold and smash world record at the Beijing Olympics.

2012 — Usain Bolt is a perfect 3 for 3 at the London Olympics — three events, three victories — just like Beijing four years ago. Almost even with the last U.S. runner when he gets the baton for the anchor leg of the 4×100 meters, Bolt steadily pulls away down the stretch to cap his perfect Summer Games by leading Jamaica to victory in a world-record 36.84 seconds. Allyson Felix wins her third gold medal, giving the United States a 20-meter lead after the second leg of the 4×400-meter relay. DeeDee Trotter, Felix, Francena McCorory and Sanya Richards-Ross bring home the victory for the Americans’ fifth straight Olympic title in the event.

2012 — Candace Parker scores 21 points and the heavily favored U.S. women’s basketball team wins a fifth straight Olympic gold medal with an 86-50 victory over France.

2013 — Ashton Eaton of the United States wins the decathlon world championship title to add to his Olympic gold medal. He completes his collection with a season-leading total of 8,809 points in a 10-event competition.

2013 — Jason Dufner wins his first major title with a two-stroke victory over Jim Furyk at the PGA Championship.

2016 — Michael Phelps wins his fourth gold medal of the Rio Olympics and 22nd overall with a victory in the 200-meter individual medley. It was the 13th individual gold and 26 medals overall.

2016 — Simone Biles soars to the all-around title in women’s gymnastics at the Rio Olympics. Her total of 62.198 is well clear of silver medalist and “Final Five” teammate Aly Raisman and Russian bronze medalist Aliya Mustafina.

2017 — The NFL suspends Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott six games after a yearlong NFL investigation of his domestic violence case in Ohio.

2021 — Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi confirms signing a rich 2-year contract with French Ligue 1 champions Paris Saint-Germain after leaving FC Barcelona.

Compiled by the Associated Press

This day in baseball history

1907 — In the second game of a doubleheader, shortened by agreement, Ed Karger of the St. Louis Cardinals pitched a seven-inning perfect game, beating the Boston Braves 4-0.

1926 — Tris Speaker of Cleveland hit his 700th career double but the Indians lost to the Chicago White Sox, 7-2. The double came in the third inning off Joe Edwards.

1929 — Babe Ruth hit his 500th career home run in the second inning off Willis Hudlin at Cleveland’s League Park. The homer was Ruth’s 30th of the year, but it wasn’t enough as the Indians beat the Yankees 6-5.

1951 — Robin Roberts of the Philadelphia Phillies beat the New York Giants 4-0, dropping the Giants 13 1/2 games behind the first-place Brooklyn Dodgers.

1961 — Warren Spahn of the Milwaukee Braves scattered six hits to beat the Chicago Cubs, 2-1, for his 300th career victory.

1970 — Philadelphia’s Jim Bunning beat the Houston Astros 6-5 to become the first pitcher to win 100 games in both leagues since Cy Young.

1980 — Reggie Jackson hits his 400th career home run, off Britt Burns, in the Yankees’ 3-1 victory over the White Sox at Yankee Stadium.

1986 — Cincinnati player-manager Pete Rose, 45, singled four times and doubled to set a NL record with the 10th five-hit game of his career. Rose drove in three runs in a 13-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants, to move one ahead of Max Carey for the record.

1987 — Mark McGwire of the Athletics broke Al Rosen’s AL rookie record by hitting his 38th home run in Oakland’s 8-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners.

2004 — Randy Wolf homered twice and threw seven solid innings to lead Philadelphia to a 15-4 victory over Colorado. Wolf went 3-for-3 and scored three runs.

2007 — Rick Ankiel homered twice and drove in three runs, the latest power display by the former pitcher, and the St. Louis Cardinals beat the Dodgers 6-1.

2010 — Arizona tied a major league record by hitting four consecutive home runs, with Adam LaRoche, Miguel Montero, Mark Reynolds and Stephen Drew all connecting in the fourth inning of an 8-2 win over Milwaukee.

2013 — After Mariano Rivera blew a third straight save for the first time in his famed career, Brett Gardner homered with two outs in the ninth inning to give the New York Yankees a 5-4 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Rivera with a record 643 saves, had never failed three in a row in 936 relief appearances.

2018 — Oakland’s Ramon Laureano pulled off a spectacular double play and the Athletics beat the Angels 7-0. With one out and Eric Young Jr. on first, Laureano raced into the gap in left-center to haul in Justin Upton’s drive. The rookie center fielder then uncorked a 320-foot throw on a fly to first base to complete the double play. Marcus Semien homered twice and Khris Davis also connected for Oakland.

2022 — The Cubs win the second annual Field of Dreams Game, played in a temporary ballpark near Dyersville, IA, next to the site where the eponymous movie was shot, 4-2 over the Reds. Nick Madrigal leads the way, going 3 for 5 as both teams wear retro uniforms for the occasion. Before the game, Ken Griffey Sr. sets the tone by playing a friendly game of catch with his son, Junior, soon joined by a group of kids and then legendary players from both teams in a scene straight out of the iconic movie.

Compiled by the Associated Press

Until next time…

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at houston.mitchell@latimes.com. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.

Washington, DC – A year after United States President Donald Trump deployed the National Guard to Washington, DC, opinions are mixed among residents, politicians and experts about the mission’s success.

Thousands of troops were deployed to DC in August 2025 as part of Trump’s Safe and Beautiful Task Force after he declared a crime emergency in the city.

The arrival of the soldiers triggered immediate opposition from many DC residents, with protests throughout the year. The advocacy group Free DC organised 11 days of demonstrations culminating in a protest outside the White House on Tuesday against what the group calls a “hostile military occupation”.

“I think Trump should go ahead and let them go home,” Ybonne Coles, a 60-year-old restaurant worker who was born and raised in the capital, said on a hot August day in Farragut Square as several soldiers patrolled nearby.

“They ain’t doing nothing but walking,” said Coles. “That money could go towards organisations to help people that really need help.”

The deployment has also faced resistance from legal officials, who have questioned its constitutionality.

On September 4, DC Attorney General Brian Schwalb sued the Trump administration over the deployment, which the lawsuit claimed was an illegal use of military force for law enforcement purposes in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act.

US District Judge Jia Cobb ruled to end the deployment on November 20, but a federal appeals court later granted the administration’s request for a stay on the order as litigation continues.

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser, whose administration Trump blamed for what he described as soaring crime rates, similarly criticised the legality of the deployment.

“We use the Guard to respond to emergencies. We use the Guard for large-scale events. We do not use the Guard to police our local laws,” Bowser said at a DC conference in October.

As the deployment approached its one-year mark, federal officials announced a “summer surge” of National Guard troops in advance of the 250th anniversary celebrations in the capital, requesting an additional 1,500 troops.

‘Peaceful and tranquil’

Not everyone opposes the National Guard’s presence.

Aaron Taslitz, a 30-year-old teacher who also works as a bike courier in DC, said that, though he would prefer that military resources be used on something more urgent than roaming the streets of the capital, he does feel safer with them around.

“For the most part, they’ve kept things peaceful and tranquil here,” he said, as he took a break from his morning bike ride in Dupont Circle.

Trump has often railed against DC, calling it “one of the most unsafe cities anywhere in the world” and claiming that since the Guard was brought in, crime has dropped by 88 percent.

However, the precise impact of the National Guard’s presence on crime in Washington, DC, remains unclear.

A report from the Niskanen Center in May found that the deployment has had no significant impact on violent crime, which has been in consistent decline in the district over the past few years.

Although the report found notable reductions in property crimes, it showed a limited impact of the troop presence on “opportunistic” crimes.

“They’re not trained police officers,” explained Richard Hahn, a co-author of the report. “The best thing a National Guard member can be, in terms of a crime deterrent, is a sentinel.”

Troop patrol zones have also concentrated in “high-traffic” areas, including tourist hubs like the National Mall and Union Station.

“Violent crime really concentrates in specific places in DC,” said Hahn. “And those are places where, by and large, the Guard was not deployed.”

Currently, 4,636 soldiers are deployed to the DC mission, including nearly 700 from the DC National Guard and thousands from various other state guards, according to a Joint Task Force-DC spokesperson. The largest out-of-state contributors are Georgia, South Carolina and Mississippi.

Despite the high number of troops, local news stations in DC have reported a notable absence of troops east of the Anacostia River, where several neighbourhoods post some of the highest violent crime rates in the city.

Commanding General Leland D Blanchard II indicated in a news conference on August 3 that patrol zones would shift in the coming weeks, but declined to provide further details.

‘Unnecessary’ use of force

A Senate investigation and report, authored by Senators Gary Peters and Andy Kim in February, also expressed concerns that the deployment risked harming local trust in law enforcement, politicising the armed forces and reducing troop preparedness.

The report further identified a threat to civilian privacy posed by the Guard’s software tools, including social media monitoring systems Meltwater and Cision, and the Palantir Technologies platform Maven Smart System.

The National Guard has also faced multiple lawsuits since the deployment began last August.

On July 29, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a claim on behalf of retired US Army captain Anna King after members of the Idaho National Guard violently detained her in May for allegedly assaulting an officer two days earlier.

King has denied the allegation and instead believes she was detained for her vocal criticism of the Guard’s presence in the city.

“What you see here is an aggressive use of force that was totally unnecessary and totally disproportionate,” said Michael Perloff, a lawyer representing King, “and this illustrates the broader concerns with the reliance on the National Guard to patrol this district.”

While no official cost has been reported for the first year of the operation, the Senate Committee on Homeland Security reported an annual estimate of $602m.

In July, the Pentagon announced plans to keep the Guard in DC through the end of Trump’s term. According to an estimate obtained by Senator Elizabeth Warren, the deployment will cost an additional $1.4bn from October 2026 to January 2029.

The figure comes on top of an already steep deployment cost so far.

One service member from the Indiana National Guard, who was deployed for a few months as part of the DC mission in November and asked not to be named, expressed mixed feelings about his time patrolling the streets of DC.

“My time there was to help the citizens of DC,” said the soldier, adding that he took pride in providing this service.

“It didn’t matter who they were, what they were doing – I was just there to help in any way that I could,” he said. “I’ve seen people impacted by us in a positive light.”

At other times, though, he said he had his doubts about the mission, noting especially low morale in his unit while they were away from their families during the holiday season.

“There were days when I was like, ‘What are we doing here? We’re not really doing anything.’”

Death sentences will be replaced with life imprisonment with aggravated hard labour.

Lebanon’s parliament has passed a law to abolish capital punishment, making it the first country in the Middle East to do so.

The Lebanese parliament’s speaker’s office said lawmakers signed off on the legislation Tuesday after making several amendments.

A majority of the 128-member assembly voted in favour of ending the death penalty, with the exception of the parliamentary bloc of Hezbollah.

Justice Minister Adel Nassar, who was in parliament, called it a “historic step” for the country.

The new system replaces the death sentence with life imprisonment with aggravated hard labour.

While Lebanon has observed an unofficial moratorium on executions since January 2004, courts have continued to issue dozens of death sentences.

At the end of 2025, 85 people were facing death sentences, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Justice’s Directorate of Prisons.

‘Lasting legal protection’

Rights group Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa director, Heba Morayef, praised Lebanon’s move to end capital punishment as “a major milestone and a victory for human rights in the country”.

“After more than two decades without executions, today’s step transforms a precarious hiatus in executions into lasting legal protection upholding the right to life and bringing Lebanon in line with the global trend towards abolition,” Morayef said.

It is unclear how aggravated hard labour would be enforced, with some legislators saying the terms of the new punishment are not yet clear. Lebanon does have the punishment of hard labour written into law and court decisions, but even those have been rarely enforced in recent years due to cash-strapped Lebanon’s lack of resources and capacity within its overcrowded prisons.

Lebanon’s abolition of the death penalty comes as parliament also debates a controversial general amnesty law, the largest since the end of its 15-year civil war in 1990, that could reduce sentences or even release some people convicted of violence offences.

Family members of Lebanese soldiers and servicemen killed in attacks have repeatedly protested against the law, some saying they had hoped to see the perpetrators who killed their family members executed rather than be issued reduced prison sentences.

Leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement last Friday, pledging to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stating that an armed attack on any one of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.

The pact comes as the three countries navigate growing regional tensions, including concerns over Israel’s expanding military reach and Iran’s regional influence.

Together, these countries form a sizeable military bloc. Riyadh is a top oil exporter, Ankara has NATO’s second-largest military, and Islamabad is the only nuclear-armed Muslim country.

In this explainer, Al Jazeera breaks down their combined land, air and naval strength.

Joint land, air and naval strength

Together, the three countries combine nearly 1.4 million active military personnel, 3,400 aircraft, 6,000 tanks and more than 340 naval assets according to the 2026 Global Firepower Index, which ranks the defence capabilities of 145 countries.

The index scores each country’s potential war-making capability across land, air and sea, drawing on factors including manpower, equipment, natural resources, finances and geography.

• Manpower: Combined, the three countries include about 1.4 million active personnel, backed by large paramilitary and reserve forces. Pakistan provides the largest pool of active personnel at 660,000, followed by Turkiye at 481,000 and Saudi Arabia at 247,000.
• Air power: Together they operate 3,415 military aircraft including fighter jets, helicopters, transporters and training military aircraft. Pakistan possesses some 1,397 aircraft, followed by Turkiye at 1,101 and Saudi Arabia with 917.
• Land forces: The three countries field some 6,046 tanks and more than 179,000 armoured vehicles, alongside thousands of artillery systems and multiple-launch rocket systems. Pakistan has the highest number of tanks at 2,677, Turkiye has 2,284 and Saudi Arabia, 1,085.
• Naval power: Their combined fleets include 344 naval assets, including 33 frigates, 24 corvettes and 22 submarines. Turkiye comes out top here with 192 naval assets, followed by Pakistan’s 120 and Saudi Arabia’s 32.
• Defence spending: Their combined defence budgets amount to about $124.4bn annually. Saudi Arabia has the largest military budget of the three at $63.9bn in 2026, while Turkiye set aside $51.4bn and Pakistan $9.1bn according to Global Firepower.

Complementary military powers

Andreas Krieg, an academic, security analyst and political risk consultant specialising in the Middle East and North Africa, said the pact’s significance lies in how the three countries’ different capabilities could complement one another.

“Saudi Arabia contributes capital, geography, infrastructure and political convening power. Turkiye contributes an increasingly sophisticated defence-industrial base, drones, missiles, sensors, electronic warfare, naval systems and NATO-derived military expertise,” he said.

Meanwhile, Pakistan contributes manpower, a large professional military establishment, operational experience, defence production and nuclear capability.

What does the alliance mean for each country?

For Saudi Arabia, the pact diversifies its defence partnerships beyond the United States, adding Turkiye’s advanced military capabilities and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent, amid growing threats to vital maritime corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

Pakistan is one of nine states that possess nuclear weapons, which it first tested in 1998. The country of more than 250 million people relies heavily on China for its arms imports.

Turkiye, which joined NATO in 1952, has no nuclear weapons of its own but hosts US warheads under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements.

David Des Roches, a former director of Arabian Peninsula affairs in the US Department of Defense, told Al Jazeera that the deal also serves Saudi arms diversification amid Western export unpredictability, since Turkiye and Pakistan can supply items like 155mm artillery shells at scale.

For Turkiye and Pakistan, it opens Saudi financial markets for their defence industries – both have manufacturing capacity exceeding what their own economies can sustain.

Zaid M Belbagi, managing partner at Hardcastle Advisory, told Al Jazeera that, for the US, the stakes are high. “Pakistan is a recipient of US aid, Saudi Arabia is the largest foreign buyer of US military equipment, and Turkiye is NATO’s second-largest army after the United States – so the spectre of the US within this agreement is quite interesting,” he said.

Krieg added that the US remains highly important, particularly for intelligence, advanced missile defence, and high-end military technology – but said that regional actors want to convert their own resources into usable power rather than purchasing from Washington.

“The old model was overwhelmingly hub-and-spokes, with Washington at the centre and individual states looking primarily to the United States for security. What is emerging now is horizontal connectivity between regional powers,” said Krieg.

Which other countries could join the pact?

Egypt is the only country whose potential membership has been publicly raised by a signatory. Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called Egypt a “natural partner” and said he expected Cairo to join once technical issues are resolved.

Krieg said Egypt’s military weight, strategic geography and control of the Suez Canal would make it a significant addition to the pact.

But Cairo may be wary of binding military obligations and the impact on its existing agreements, analysts said. “Egypt may join only if the language protects its aid relationship with Washington, doesn’t undermine existing alliances and peace treaties, and maintains its own freedom to decide when and where it fights,” said Karim Elgendy at Chatham House.

Despite risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, seafarers from the Philippines are still competing for jobs.

Manila, Philippines – Monsoon rains may have forced schools to shut down and suspended government services in the Philippine capital last week, but applicants at shipping companies and employment agencies still formed long lines that snaked around street corners.

The rain was the least of their worries. They were taking the first step on a journey that would take them to increasingly treacherous waters – and they say they are fully aware of the risks.

Gerald, a veteran sailor, was sorting out some last-minute paperwork for his next deployment next week. He is going to board the same ship he was last on – a cargo vessel off the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The last time he was there, he was stuck for two months. He was due to return to the Philippines when the United States and Israel launched air attacks on Iran in late February.

“There was one missile that flew over. The navy intercepted it right when it was above us, so we hid,” recalled Gerald, who asked for his full name not to be used to protect his job. “We knew fragments could land on our ship. But what can we do? There was nowhere safe.”

He said he had never had to face and fear and uncertainty in 15 years as a commercial seafarer. As the US-Israel war on Iran spread across the region, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, he and his stranded colleagues for weeks watched projectiles from both directions blow up mid-air. Shrapnel mostly ended up in the water, but the crossfire prevented their usual rations from coming through. They had to brave the danger and fish on the deck to survive.

But none of that has deterred him – not even the on-and-off diplomacy between Washington and Tehran.

“I was able to save enough to buy a property after just two years of sailing,” he said. “I was able to build a house for my parents.”

The sea had always been a source of food and income for Gerald. He grew up in a fishing village. And while he says he was never hungry, sailing in waters beyond his hometown changed his life.

“This job has provided me with a decent income. And it’s the only job I’ve known for a long time. I can’t just go into business or farming. That’s easier said than done,” he said.

‘If I die, my family will be set for life’

At the height of the war in March, nearly 20,000 sailors on 1,500 ships were trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 17 have been killed in attacks since then.

The Philippines supplies more than a quarter of the world’s seafaring workforce. Among the 6,000 sailors currently stranded in the waterway, approximately 2,500 are Filipinos, according to data from the International Maritime Organization in July.

But even when the US and Iran struck an interim deal in June to end the war, there was no mass repatriation of Filipino sailors. The Department of Migrant Workers said more than 60 have since returned home from the Gulf, but most Filipinos on vessels that have been able to transit the Strait of Hormuz remain on board.

Alberto Lobaton was also due to return to sea and was staying at the same apartment complex near Manila Bay where Gerald was. The place has served as a halfway house for seafarers for years and was fully booked despite escalating maritime conflicts.

In addition to the conflict in the Gulf, there has been an increase in attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea as the war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies. In July alone, 35 ships were struck, and more than 20 sailors were killed, including at least three Filipinos.

Lobaton witnessed one such strike last year.

“I felt the ship shake because the explosion was so close. It was just around 300 metres (984 feet) away; I was in our quarters, but those who were on duty that night stood up and ran,” said Lobaton.

The Philippine government has appealed to shipowners to avoid high-risk areas or disembark their Filipino crew. It’s also reminded Filipino sailors they have the right to refuse to sail.

Lobaton says it would be a lie to say he is not concerned for his safety, but the financial rewards outweigh the risk of injury or death.

“If I die, my family will be set for life because we are insured. So if something were to happen to me, I’d prefer it happened while I’m at work at sea.”

The U.S. Navy is planning to acquire 31 E-130J Phoenix II aircraft to replace 16 E-6B Mercury planes now in service. This will nearly double the number of planes the service has configured to perform the Take Charge And Move Out (TACAMO) mission. TACAMO involves providing aerial command and control support for nuclear ballistic missile submarines, including the ability to send them orders to launch strikes while they are submerged. Platforms assigned nuclear support missions like this are commonly called ‘doomsday planes.’

The total planned E-130J fleet size was included in a recently released Pentagon report. The so-called Modernized Selected Acquisition Report (MSAR) was produced as part of work on the U.S. military’s proposed Fiscal Year 2027 budget and is dated April 21, 2026. The report also acknowledges risks to the program associated with operational availability, which the Government Accountability Office (GAO) has previously highlighted publicly. Aviation Week was first to report on the new E-130J MSAR.

In terms of the acquisition plan, the Navy currently expects to acquire six pre-production E-130Js to support the type’s ongoing development, as well as 25 production examples. The service had only previously disclosed that it would be buying six aircraft as part of the development phase and that the initial low-rate production run would comprise three to six additional planes. Whether some or all of the pre-production Phoenix IIs might ultimately be used operationally is unknown.

The MSAR says the estimated Program Acquisition Unit Cost (PAUC), which factors in research and development costs, for all 31 E-130Js, was $732.8 million apiece as of April. The Average Procurement Unit Cost (APUC) for just the 25 production examples, which also does not include research and development costs, was pegged at $360.9 million each. The report also says that these PAUC and the APUC figures are both lower – by 3.29 and 2.64 percent, respectively – than the baseline estimates as of December 2024.

As noted, the E-130Js, which are being converted from four-engine turboprop C-130J-30 Hercules cargo planes, are set to replace the existing fleet of E-6Bs. The Mercury aircraft are based on the larger, jet-engined Boeing 707 airliner. The E-6Bs first began entering service in an earlier E-6A configuration in 1989, and were some of the last 707-based planes ever produced. They were subsequently brought up to the current standard in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and have received additional upgrades since then. The Mercury fleet currently also supports a U.S. Air Force nuclear mission set called the Airborne Command Post (ABNCP), and more commonly known by the nickname Looking Glass. That mission entails providing aerial command and control support to nuclear-capable bombers and silo-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. As part of this role, E-6Bs are equipped to initiate the launch of Minuteman IIIs while in flight. We will come back to this later on, as the stated plan now is for the Phoenix II planes to be capable of supporting the TACAMO mission only.

Overall, the April MSAR for the E-130J says the “program is on track and executing to the APB [Acquisition Program Baseline].”

“An Integrated Baseline Review (IBR) was conducted September 23-26, 2025 and formally closed on February 24, 2026. All actions resulting from IBR Findings have been successfully resolved,” the report adds. “Preliminary Design Review (PDR) for the first test aircraft configuration (AV1) was conducted March 31-April 1, 2026 with the full system PDR planned for July 2026.”

However, the report also lists a risk associated with “Operational Availability,” but says that “additional details can be found at the classified
level.”

This is in line with concerns raised publicly by GAO, a Congressional watchdog, starting last year.

“The C-130J aircraft – selected 4 years before E-130J’s development start – may not meet operational availability requirements. The E-130J’s technical risk assessment highlighted the complexity associated with integrating E-130J systems onto this aircraft,” GAO warned in a report published in June 2025. “The Navy’s technical risk assessment team expects the integration risks to translate to manufacturing issues given the potential deviation from standard components and the security environment required.”

“As we reported in last year’s assessment, the Navy awarded its contract despite significant technical risks it acknowledged the E-130J program faced. A September 2024 independent technical risk assessment highlighted the complexity associated with the program’s planned integration effort, which officials acknowledged could increase as they integrate additional technologies,” per another GAO report released just last month. “Since our 2024 report, the program has delayed its low-rate production decision by approximately a year as these system integration risks have morphed into realities.”

“For example, program officials said that contractors are now focused on modifying already-existing mission systems to reduce their weight, which the independent assessment anticipated would be necessary to accommodate them on the C-130J-30 airframe,” the July 2026 GAO report added.

GAO also said in that report that the Navy “acknowledges technical risk,” but also that the service had highlighted “risk reduction contracts with subcontractors to address obsolescence and size, weight, and power-cooling risks.”

Generally speaking, aircraft assigned the TACAMO mission require a highly specialized and extremely reliable communications suite to ensure they can perform under what could be extremely challenging conditions. Each E-6B notably has the ability to reel out a five-mile-long antenna to communicate with submerged submarines. The E-130J will have a very similar, if not identical, antenna system. Hardening against electro-magnetic pulses (EMP), which would be produced during the detonation of nuclear warheads, is another key requirement for these planes.

“Due to the highly sensitive and distinct strategic command and communications missions, the E-130J programs are managed with a zero-tolerance posture for foreign exploitation,” the April MSAR also highlights. “Program Protection is governed by stringent, continuously enforced plans addressing all Technology Security and Foreign Disclosure (TS&FD) elements, including Supply Chain Assurance and robust Information Assurance. Additional details are available in a classified environment.”

In the past, TWZ has discussed the potential operational readiness and other tradeoffs that could come from selecting a C-130-based platform to replace the 707-based E-6B in the TACAMO role. As we wrote previously:

“It’s certainly worth pointing out that the E-6Bs, conversions of what were some of the last and most modern 707 airliners built, were larger and higher performance platforms than the EC-130Qs. The C-130J-30 is certainly a more capable aircraft than the C-130H on which the EC-130Q was based, but it won’t have the base speed and altitude capabilities of an airliner-sized multi-engine jet. Compared to the Mercuries, any TACAMO-configured C-130J-30 would not be able to get on station as quickly, or fly as high, limiting its ability to get above bad weather or establish a better line of sight for its communications systems.”

“At the same time, as the Navy itself has noted, the C-130J-30 platform does immediately open up the ability to use a larger number of air bases, airports, and airfields, including austere ones that the E-6B cannot operate from. This could be very useful in a contingency scenario where an opponent may have destroyed or otherwise rendered unusable many well-established bases, as well as larger secondary dispersal sites, which include large commercial airports. Being able to fly from smaller, tertiary locations could help to ensure that the TACAMO mission continues without significant disruption under such circumstances. This is also true during peacetime as targeting the TACAMOs on the ground would be much harder if they could easily operate from and sit alert at a much larger number of airports.”

“A C-130J-30 configured for the TACAMO mission would certainly have a mid-air refueling capability and the Hercules is already a platform that has demonstrated the ability to loiter over particular areas for long periods of time. Unlike the Boeing 707, the C-130J is still in production, as well, meaning that TACAMO aircraft based on this plane would be inherently easier to maintain and support logistically, and may also be easier to convert to this specialized configuration to begin with. As time goes on, the J looks set to increasingly become the default base C-130 model across the U.S. military, as well. Compared to the long out of production 707-based E-6, support for the C-130J is already distributed across the U.S., and beyond. Training C-130J crews is even an easier proposition.”

How exactly operational considerations factored into the decision regarding the E-130J fleet size is unknown. There are additional tradeoffs to having a larger total fleet, but it should offer strategic readiness benefits based on available airframes alone. It is worth noting here that the Navy did operate TACAMO aircraft based on older C-130 variants before the E-6A entered service.

There is no debate that the aging E-6Bs are becoming increasingly more challenging to operate and sustain. The Mercury fleet has been further strained over the years given the need to use operational aircraft to support training demands. The Navy is now utilizing a contractor-owned, but government-operated (COGO) Boeing 737NG airliner to support pilot training requirements. This follows an abortive plan to convert an ex-Royal Air Force E-3D Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft, another Boeing 707-based type, into a dedicated TE-6B crew trainer, which came to a halt last year, as TWZ was first to report.

To avoid any gaps in TACAMO coverage, the Navy has also said it will phase out the E-6Bs only as the new E-130Js enter service, which means that Mercury aircraft will have to keep flying until the transition is deemed complete. The initial operational capability timeline for the Phoenix II is currently classified, but the April MSAR says initial operational test and evaluation (IOT&E) is not set to start until June 2033, at the earliest. Completion of IOT&E is not automatically required for an IOC declaration.

As mentioned, despite the fleet size target, the E-130J is not set to take on the ABNCP/Looking Glass mission, at least currently. The Air Force is still in the very early stages of acquiring what it is currently calling Looking Glass-Next (LG-N) to assume this role. Among the questions still to be answered, at least that we know, is how many total planes the service will need to meet those mission requirements. Leveraging the forthcoming Boeing 747-based E-4C Survivable Airborne Operations Center (SAOC) jets has been raised as a possibility. However, the SAOC aircraft are set to have much broader ‘doomsday plane’ roles, just like the four E-4B Nightwatch types they are set to replace, as you can read more about here. The Air Force is also in the midst of a much larger modernization of its nuclear command and control architectures, work that is tied heavily to the much-delayed LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program, as we have detailed in the past. Nuclear command and control functions could increasingly move to space-based assets as part of these developments.

“I have full confidence in our ability to sustain existing capability and bridge to the next generation of capability,” Navy Adm. Richard Correll, head of U.S. Strategic Command, told TWZ and others at a media roundtable last week, when asked for an update on TACAMO and LG-N. Correll deferred to the Navy and the Air Force on more specific questions about those programs.

When it comes to TACAMO modernization, the Navy is pressing ahead with its plans, which are set to result in a major increase in at least the total number of aircraft configured for this critical mission.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Republicans in South Carolina will head to the polls on Tuesday to decide who will replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham in the race to represent the state in the United States Senate.

The vote comes less than five weeks after Graham’s unexpected death on July 11 from cardiovascular disease.

During his 23 years in the Senate, Graham developed a reputation as one of the most hawkish voices in Congress, advocating for military intervention in Iran, Iraq and elsewhere. A longtime ally of President Donald Trump, he had sailed to victory in South Carolina’s Republican primary race on June 9.

A crowded field, which includes his sister, Darline Graham, is now running to succeed Graham. The winner will face Democratic nominee Annie Andrews in the November midterms.

Here’s what to know about Tuesday’s primary re-do:

Who is running to replace Graham?

Ten candidates are running to be the Republican candidate.

They include Darline Graham, who has been appointed to finish her brother’s current term in the Senate, which runs through January.

Businessman Mark Lynch, who finished second to Graham in the June primary, is also in the race.

Two current members of Congress, Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, are also competing, as is the former governor of the state, Mark Sanford.

Rounding out the field are lawyer Duke Buckner, biomedical engineer Samuel Shepherd, former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride, retired Air Force officer Glenda Gail Parker and farmer Danny Lee Ford II.

When do polls open?

Polls are open from 7am to 7pm Eastern US time.

Why is South Carolina holding a special election?

Graham’s death has upended what was expected to be a straightforward race.

Under South Carolina law, if a candidate is elected in a primary but then vacates the race, a special election must be held. Candidates are able to officially enter the race on the second Tuesday after the vacancy occurs, with the filing period open for one week.

Who is leading the race?

Darline Graham was initially seen only as a placeholder for her older brother, but a recent poll has shown her taking a commanding lead in the race.

The Quantus Insights poll found Graham carrying 30.4 percent of the vote, putting her in first place. US Representative Ralph Norman was a distant second at 17.5 percent, with his fellow Congressman Russell Fry taking 16.6 percent.

Former Governor Mark Sanford was in fourth at 15.4 percent.

Who is filling Graham’s seat now?

The US Constitution and South Carolina state law allow the governor to select Graham’s replacement to finish his term.

Outgoing Governor Henry McMaster, a Republican, announced Darline Graham as his pick on July 13, two days after her brother’s death.

She is the first woman to represent South Carolina in the Senate, and she is considered a continuity candidate in Tuesday’s special election, likely to carry forward her late brother’s political platform.

She and Lindsey Graham were said to be very close, as he helped raise her after their parents died. Prior to her appointment to the Senate, Darline Graham served as a former public administrator.

What does this mean for the midterm vote?

A Republican remains favoured to win the open Senate seat in the red-leaning state, but Graham’s death is generally seen as increasing the odds for Democrats.

President Trump’s surprise decision to endorse Darline Graham could prove impactful, though.

The nod likely gave her a bump among Republican voters, but the fact that she has no previous legislative experience could make her more vulnerable in the general election than more tested candidates.

On the Democratic side, Andrews, a paediatrician, has proven an adept fundraiser. She has seized on a measles outbreak in the state, beginning in October 2025, to criticise Republican leadership, as well as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, a prominent vaccine sceptic.

Andrews has maintained that voters in South Carolina are hungry for change.

“They’re looking for something different, and as a doctor and a mom and someone who represents a generational shift in leadership, that’s exactly what I’m offering,” she told the Charleston City Paper.

Last week, the U.S. Navy announced that future stretched Virginia class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) fitted with Virginia Payload Modules (VPM) will be recategorized as guided missile types (SSGN). In doing so, the service disclosed that two Block V Virginia class boats will lack a VPM, and the four large vertical launch tubes contained therein, rather than just one as had been previously understood. Now, the Navy has confirmed to TWZ directly that the second VPM-less Block V will have a one-of-a-kind seabed warfare configuration. This will allow it to conduct espionage missions on the seafloor, a role currently filled by the USS Jimmy Carter, a one-off subvariant of the Seawolf class attack submarine.

In its August 3 press release, the Navy said it planned to acquire 19 VPM-equipped Virginia class SSGNs across the Block V and Block VI subclasses. As TWZ noted at the time, this created a discrepancy of one submarine based on publicly stated procurement plans. It was already known that the first of the 12 Block Vs, the future USS Oklahoma, would lack a VPM, but the expectation had been that the other 11 would have this feature. The Block VI production run is currently set to consist of nine more submarines, all with VPMs. We correctly posited last week that the outlier could be the seabed warfare submarine, the basic plans for which emerged some years ago now.

“19 of the VPMs will be re-classified as SSGNs with two of the Block V SSNs to be built in non-VPM configurations,” a Navy spokesperson told TWZ when asked for clarification.

“A later Block V submarine will not have VPM and will be a Subsea and Seabed Warfare (SSW) focused platform,” the same Navy spokesperson subsequently confirmed to TWZ in response to our follow-up questions.

The Navy has declined to name the specific Block V Virginia class submarine that will be configured for the seabed warfare role. We know from the statement above that it will not be the future USS Oklahoma (also known by the hull number SSN-802). We also know that the second Block V Virginia, the future USS Arizona (SSGN-803), will be the first to feature the VPM.

So the seabed warfare version will be one of the other 10 planned Block V Virginia class submarines. All of those future boats (hulls 804 through 813) have already been assigned official names, which are, in order: USS Barb, USS Tang, USS Wahoo, USS Silversides, USS John H. Dalton, USS Long Island, USS San Francisco, USS Miami, USS Baltimore, and USS Atlanta. As an aside, Barb, Tang, Wahoo, and Silversides will be the first Navy submarines in decades to be named after ‘denizens of the deep.’ Since the 1970s, the service has largely been naming new attack submarines after cities and states, a decision you can read more about in detail here.

As noted, the Navy has previously disclosed plans to acquire a one-off Virginia class submarine in a seabed warfare configuration, but has offered little in the way of specifics to date. General Dynamics Electric Boat has shared some additional information in the past. This company is one of two prime contractors involved in producing Virginia class boats, with the other being the Newport News Shipbuilding division of Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII).

“Our Virginia class submarine program is evolving … over time to accomplish new missions, and we’re taking the existing hull form and modifying that to incorporate new weapons, sensors, and improved stealth features,” Kevin Graney, then President of General Dynamics Electric Boat, said during a presentation as part of a summit hosted by the Connecticut Business and Industry Association (CBIA) in 2022. “One of the most significant design changes we’ve implemented in recent times and currently ongoing is the Virginia Payload Module, which will carry an enhanced strike capability. …basically an 84-foot hull section that includes four additional missile tubes.”

You can watch Graney’s 2022 presentation in full below. His overview of the Virginia class program at that time starts at approximately 21:52 in the runtime, if the video does not advance to that point automatically.

Electric Boat’s ‘Once-in-a-Generation Expansion’

General Dynamics Electric Boat’s main shipyard, as well as other facilities, are in Connecticut. The company also has a major hull-fabrication and outfitting facility in neighboring Rhode Island. Graney retired in 2024.

“We’re developing … a seabed warfare variant, and this ship is designed to interact with the seafloor,” Graney also said during his 2022 presentation. “This design will repurpose some of those missile tubes that I referred to in the VPM design to perform those missions.”

An accompanying slide in Graney’s presentation – seen in part at the top of this story and below – showed a rendering of the seabed warfare variant. As depicted, the design features a pronounced additional bulge under the center of the hull in the same general area where VPM will be fitted on other Block V boats.

This is fully in line with how Jimmy Carter is known to be modified. The main difference between that submarine and the other two Seawolf class boats is the addition of a 100-foot hull extension known as the Multi-Mission Platform (MMP). From what has been publicly released in the past, the MMP is capable of launching and recovering remotely operated vehicles (ROV), uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUV), and other specialized payloads. There is also a reconfigurable command and control room, storage spaces, and other special missionized equipment. The submarine also has auxiliary thrusters and other unique features to help it land on the seafloor or otherwise keep its position underwater. Altogether, Jimmy Carter‘s unique features are understood to be optimized for covert and clandestine underwater espionage missions, including inspecting, manipulating, and even collecting objects of interest from deep on the ocean floor.

Beyond repurposing the space set aside for the VPM, what other modifications the seabed warfare version of the Virginia might receive are unknown. The Seawolf class, in general, is understood to have particularly good deep-diving capabilities, among other attributes, even compared to the Virginia class that came afterward. All three Seawolf class submarines – the other two being the USS Seawolf and the USS Connecticut – continue to be in high demand because of the advanced capabilities the design offers at its core. The continued importance of these submarines is underscored by the Navy’s ongoing work to return Connecticut to service after it suffered major damage, particularly to its bow, from a collision with an underwater seamount in the South China Sea back in 2021.

The floor of the ocean has long been an important, but challenging domain for underwater operations, including when it comes to cutting or tapping into critical fiber optic communications cables and destroying pipelines. Being able to examine, or even recover, objects of interest from the seabed has been and continues to be a critical element of so-called foreign materiel exploitation (FME) operations, as TWZ has explored in great detail in the past.

The importance of the seabed is only set to grow going forward. China, Russia, and others are working to expand their undersea infrastructure, often in support of nominally civilian activities that could have obvious dual-use applications. The Russian Navy, in particular, and the Soviet Navy before it, has its own particularly long history of covert and clandestine seabed warfare operations utilizing special mission submarines and submersibles, specialized surface ships, and uncrewed platforms.

Overall, including a new highly specialized version of the Virginia class design to supplement, or even eventually supplant, Jimmy Carter makes good sense. The Navy currently expects the Block V Virginia class submarines to be delivered between 2028 and 2034. Jimmy Carter was commissioned in 2005 and will be 29 years old when the last Block V boat arrives, at least according to the present schedule. This one-of-a-kind subvariant of the Seawolf class itself replaced the equally uniquely modified Sturgeon class attack submarine USS Parche, which was inactivated in 2004 after three decades of service.

As TWZ discussed in detail last week, the decision to recategorize VPM-equipped Block V submarines as SSGNs is meant to underscore the Navy’s separate commitment to filling separate looming capability gaps. The Navy is now starting the process of retiring its four Ohio class SSGNs, all of which were originally built as nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Those boats are also among the most heavily in-demand submarines the Navy has in service today. They are really more multi-mission platforms able to provide a wide range of special operation support, underwater command and control, and intelligence fusion functions, on top of their long-range strike capabilities, as you can read more about in this past feature of ours.

It has also been pointed out that the Navy is now unlikely to acquire a new SSN class, at least technically, for many years. The Navy has plans to acquire a new class of attack submarines, currently referred to as SSN(X), which has been discussed in the past as more of a true successor to the Seawolf class. However, the service does not now expect the first of those boats to enter service until the mid-2040s. At the same time, it is also worth noting that the decision to change the hull classification of VPM-equipped Virginia class from SSN to SSGN is largely administrative from what has been disclosed so far. Block V versions, at least, are expected to have the same capability mix as before.

SSN(X) “will complement the Virginia class to create a mixed attack submarine force built to penetrate and dominate heavily defended adversary areas,” according to the long-term shipbuilding plan the Navy released back in May. “With a larger payload volume, superior survivability, and organic hosting of unmanned robotic and autonomous systems (RAS), SSN(X) will assure continued persistent access to denied zones and eliminate enemy safe havens.”

“Block VI, really, that will become the jumping-off point, we think, for the SSN(X) program, and we expect to continue to incorporate even more advanced stealth and performance features,” General Dynamics Electric Boat’s Graney had also said back in 2022.

Whether the new SSGN nomenclature for Virginia class submarines equipped with the VPM results in any significant changes to how the submarines are employed remains to be seen.

What we do know now for sure is that two of the Navy’s future Block V Virginia class submarines will lack the VPM, and the second one will be a highly specialized seabed warfare version completely unlike any other.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Search and rescue teams are racing against time across western Colombia after a powerful earthquake killed at least 132 people and left thousands missing, authorities say.

The magnitude 7.4 quake struck on Monday, rattling Cali, Quibdo, Pereira and dozens of other cities and towns. About 1,600 buildings have been reported damaged or collapsed, with soldiers, emergency crews and residents working side by side, passing chunks of concrete by hand as they search for survivors under the rubble.

Families are posting details of missing relatives on citizen-run websites; by Monday night more than 2,700 people had been reported missing. In El Cairo, near the epicentre in San Jose del Palmar, local officials say 80 percent of the town, home to about 7,000 people, has been damaged. Many of its traditional houses, made of sticks and mud, crumpled in the tremors.

President Abelardo de la Espriella, facing his first major crisis since taking office on Friday, has deployed “the entire military and police apparatus”, sending engineers, rescue teams and search dogs into the worst-hit areas. The US has pledged $15.5m in emergency aid, as regional governments also offer support to one of Colombia’s poorest and most isolated regions.

Stronger Food System Offers Cushion Against El Niño

Near-record food inventories, advances in agricultural technology and the emergence of major exporters such as Brazil and Russia have made the global food system more resilient to this year’s potentially powerful El Niño than during previous severe episodes.

Global agricultural production has generally outpaced consumption and population growth since the 1980s, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and analysts.

Higher-yielding crop varieties, increased fertiliser use, improved irrigation and better crop protection have significantly raised production of major staples including rice, wheat, corn and soybeans.

“Even during drought conditions, better irrigation management and crop science mean we can still produce marketable yields,” said Andrew Whitelaw of Australian agricultural consultancy Episode 3.

While El Niño can still disrupt global supplies and push prices higher, improved agricultural preparedness means the consequences could be less severe than during previous major events.

El Niño Gathers Strength

The effects are already being felt across major agricultural regions.

Drier conditions linked to El Niño have disrupted planting across parts of Asia, including India, Southeast Asia and Australia. At the same time, shortages of fertiliser and diesel caused by the Iran war have created additional risks for global agricultural production.

India is experiencing a deficient monsoon season, while Australia’s major wheat-producing regions face the prospect of drier conditions. Crops in Indonesia, Thailand and other parts of Southeast Asia are also suffering from insufficient moisture.

The situation could deteriorate further as El Niño is expected to intensify during the fourth quarter and early next year.

U.S.-based meteorologist Chris Hyde said the event could become one of the strongest on record, meaning the biggest impact from drought may still be ahead.

El Niño is associated with warmer ocean surface temperatures across the eastern and central Pacific. The weather pattern typically produces drier conditions across large parts of Asia while increasing rainfall across the Americas.

Previous major El Niño events in 1997-98 and 2015-16 caused substantial damage to crop production, contributing to food shortages, inflation and weaker economic growth.

Drought pushed up sugar and palm oil prices after damaging production in countries including Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Tight rice supplies also prompted some Southeast Asian producers to restrict exports.

Australia suffered lower wheat production and exports, while countries in southern Africa were forced to increase corn imports.

Record Inventories Provide a Buffer

One of the biggest differences between previous El Niño events and the current environment is the level of global food reserves.

Near-record grain inventories, drought-tolerant seeds, improved weather forecasting, precision agriculture and better irrigation could help absorb some of the production losses.

India’s crop sowing has broadly recovered from an initial delay, although rainfall during August and September will remain important for crop maturity and grain formation.

India also holds a particularly important position in the global rice market. The country accounts for around 40% of global rice exports and has accumulated such large reserves that storage capacity is being stretched.

China, meanwhile, holds nearly half of global wheat stocks. As the world’s largest wheat producer and consumer, its large reserves could reduce the need for imports if drought damages production in major suppliers such as Australia.

Global palm oil inventories are also near historic highs, although Indonesia’s expanding biodiesel programme is expected to reduce stocks in coming months.

Brazil and Russia Strengthen Global Supply

The emergence of major agricultural exporters that were far less important several decades ago has also increased the resilience of global food markets.

Brazil has become the world’s largest soybean exporter, with shipments increasing more than 13-fold since the 1997-98 El Niño period.

Russia has also emerged as a major wheat supplier, with exports reaching 48 million tons last year compared with roughly 1 million tons in 1997-98.

These additional sources of supply give global markets more alternatives if weather damages production in individual countries.

Agricultural science has also improved. Drought-tolerant corn hybrids have become widely used across Africa and the Americas, while heat- and drought-resistant wheat varieties have gained ground in India and Australia.

Short-duration rice varieties are increasingly being used across South and Southeast Asia, allowing farmers to reduce exposure to increasingly unpredictable monsoon conditions.

Technology Changes the Equation

Farmers today also have access to technologies that were largely unavailable during the 1997-98 El Niño.

Satellite crop monitoring, seasonal climate forecasts, detailed soil-moisture maps and GPS-guided fertiliser application allow farmers to make more precise decisions about planting, irrigation and inputs.

AI-powered agricultural platforms are also increasingly combining weather forecasts, soil information and crop data to advise farmers on planting schedules, irrigation, fertiliser use and pest management.

The result is a food system that can identify and respond to weather risks earlier.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said governments now have significantly better information and can prepare earlier because forecasting and market transparency have improved.

Wars Could Undermine the Resilience

Despite these improvements, the global food system remains exposed to risks beyond weather.

The wars in the Middle East and Black Sea region could undermine some of the protection provided by stronger inventories and agricultural technology.

The Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertiliser supplies, while higher fertiliser costs could reduce farmers’ ability to maintain production.

Torero warned that much will depend on how conditions develop during the second half of 2026, particularly because agricultural input use has been affected by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Before its blockade during the Iran war, the Strait carried around one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Disruptions to the waterway have therefore created additional pressure on fuel and fertiliser markets.

Analysis: Is the Global Food System Ready?

The biggest takeaway is that El Niño is no longer operating against the same fragile agricultural system that existed during previous major events.

Higher productivity, larger inventories, diversified exporters and better technology provide several layers of protection. If one major producing region suffers a drought, supplies from countries such as Brazil and Russia, combined with existing reserves, can help prevent a sudden global shortage.

However, resilience does not mean immunity.

The greatest risk comes from the interaction between climate shocks and geopolitical disruptions. A powerful El Niño could reduce production at the same time that wars restrict fuel, fertiliser and transport. That combination could rapidly turn a manageable agricultural disruption into a broader food-price problem.

For now, large inventories provide an important buffer. But if the El Niño intensifies as expected while geopolitical disruptions continue to constrain agricultural inputs, the real test will be whether those reserves and technological gains are sufficient to prevent another surge in global food inflation.

With information from Reuters.

For most golfers, the biggest hazards are ponds and sand traps. President Donald Trump, the target of frequent attempts on his life, including while golfing, has bigger threats to worry about, especially from Iran. Which is why images and videos have emerged showing U.S. Army Humvee-based Avenger system short-range air defense systems (SHORAD) in the background when Trump hits the links.

The latest such imagery was from Sunday, when Trump was attending the final round of the LIV Golf Bedminster tournament at his New Jersey golf course.

One photo shows Trump wielding a wedge with an Avenger behind concertina wire in the background. There is another photo of an Avenger, but it is unclear it is the same one. There are certainly other protection platforms we don’t see, especially electronic warfare systems.

The White House on Monday confirmed the authenticity of the photos to us.

The following video shows the Avenger and an AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air defense radar in the background.

As if to highlight the concerns, while Trump was at Bedminster on Sunday, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) F-16 Fighting Falcons intercepted two general aviation aircraft that violated the Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) airspace over the area.

“All general aviation aircraft were safely escorted out of the area by NORAD aircraft,” the command stated on X.

On Aug. 1, the White House shared a video of Trump talking with soldiers at Bedminster. In the background was an Avenger.

“I’m not worried about missiles and drones,” the president joked.

“We got it covered,” a colonel responded with a smile, pointing his right thumb over his shoulder to the Humvee-mounted SHORAD system.

The Avengers, which fire Stinger heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles, are a fast-reacting point defense asset, and do make some sense for protecting a golfing president. They have been upgraded to deal with drones and there is also a known rooftop Avenger missile turret near the White House for air defense purposes, which was installed not long after 9/11.

When deployed to assist the Secret Service in protecting POTUS, the Avenger systems are operated by the 263rd Army Air and Missile Defense Command, NORAD told us. A spokesperson declined to provide further details about how often the Avengers are used this way.

Drone technology, including first-person view types and those equipped with fiber optics, is rapidly proliferating around the world and Iran has been both a user and distributor of these weapons.

Trump, as we noted earlier in this story, has already been the subject of several assassination attempts and threats. A number of these threats involve golf. The most recent incident came earlier this month. 

“Authorities arrested a suspect who was allegedly photographing and recording security preparations ahead of a scheduled fundraising dinner at the Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes, California,” Fox News reported. “The suspect, Jeanine John Taele, 38, was found carrying a 16-round magazine loaded with ammunition, while investigators recovered an additional pistol and a fake ‘security protection agent’ badge from his truck.”

Prior to that, there was an attempt against Trump on Sept. 15, 2024, at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

As Trump golfed, a Secret Service agent conducting a perimeter security sweep saw the partially obscured face of a man in the brush along the fence line near the sixth hole, according to a Justice Department media release at the time. 

“The agent observed the barrel of a rifle aimed directly at him,” the release stated. “As the agent began backing away, he saw the rifle barrel move, and the agent fired” at the man, later identified as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, of Hawaii. Routh survived and is currently in prison awaiting trial.

A few months earlier, on July 13, 2024, at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, a man fired a shot at Trump, then the Republican presidential nominee. Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, was later killed, and a bloodied Trump was whisked away. 

Prior to those attempts, Iran made a golf-related threat against Trump.

An image highly suggestive of a drone targeting the then-former President Trump on a golf course in a “vengeance” strike in retaliation for the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was posted on Twitter by an account for Iran’s then-Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. military killed Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020, which had already prompted public threats from Iranian officials, including against Trump specifically.

Twitter suspended the @khamenei_site account around 15 hours after the post when the image first appeared on Jan. 21, 2020.

Khamenei himself was killed Feb. 28 during the opening night of Operation Epic Fury.

There has been extreme concern for Trump’s safety following the launch of that operation, with an Iranian revenge hit on the president being more plausible now than ever. This has triggered major changes in safety protocols, some of which have made headline news.

The Avenger isn’t the only specialized vehicle used to protect Trump while he golfs. As we previously reported, during a golf outing with his son Eric at his course in Scotland last year, Trump was trailed by an armored Polaris Ranger X utility task vehicle (UTV) designed to provide ballistic protection. The vehicle, dubbed Golf Force One by the press, was “part of the Presidential fleet of specialty vehicles,” a White House spokesperson told The War Zone at the time. The White House provided no further details. Trump was in Scotland to host a meeting with former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at his resort, where security was beefed up.

So the next time you are having a tough time on the course, just remember this. At least you probably don’t need a Stinger-launching weapons system to ensure you make it safely to the clubhouse.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Caracas, August 10, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia held a meeting with Orthodox Rabbi Isaac Cohen on Sunday in which the latter formally requested that Caracas reestablish diplomatic ties with Israel.

According to a Foreign Ministry statement, Cohen delivered a letter addressed to Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, arguing that normalizing relations with Tel Aviv is necessary to “tend to the needs of the Jewish community” in Venezuela.

“Venezuela has historically welcomed with open arms an important Jewish community, which has contributed to the development and well-being of our nation,” Plasencia wrote on social media.

Venezuela’s top diplomat thanked Cohen, on behalf of the Rodríguez administration and the Venezuelan people, for Israeli “assistance” following the June 24 double earthquake.

Cohen, a rabbi from the Venezuelan Jewish Association (AIV), was reportedly one of the intermediaries for the arrival of an Israeli diplomatic and military mission one week after the earthquake. The delegation included IDF officers and weapons contractors, while several Tel Aviv-aligned organizations likewise deployed on-the-ground teams.

Rodríguez held multiple meetings with the Israeli team, praising its members as “highly trained and professional” and thanking them for their work. IDF spokesman Roni Kaplan stated that the Israeli team had created a “dashboard” for Venezuelan authorities to evaluate damaged buildings, while Brigadier General Elad Edri was pictured presenting a “Project for Future Reconstruction” slideshow.

The Israeli mission has sparked growing protests, with Venezuelan popular movements reaffirming support for Palestine, condemning the genocide in Gaza and Lebanon, and burning Israeli flags.

Former President Hugo Chávez severed ties with Israel in 2009, fiercely denouncing the US ally for genocide and demonstrating unwavering support for the Palestinian cause. His stance was maintained by Maduro, who endorsed South Africa’s activation of the Genocide Convention against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2024.

Following the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of Maduro, Rodríguez fast-tracked a diplomatic rapprochement with Washington alongside a broader radical shift in Caracas’ geopolitical alignment. 

Apart from re-engagement with Israel, the Venezuelan government is also reestablishing ties with far-right US allies in Latin America, including Chile, Peru, and the Dominican Republic, while distancing itself from historic partners in Havana and Tehran. During the recent US-Israel war against Iran, Caracas offered no backing for Tehran, instead voicing “solidarity” with US Gulf allies such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Philadelphia, USA.

China’s test of a nuclear-capable missile into the Pacific has exposed the growing divisions among Pacific island nations over the increasing militarisation of a region they have sought to preserve as an “Ocean of Peace”.

The July launch, China’s first known ballistic-missile test into the Pacific since September 2024, took place just hours after Fiji and Australia signed a major defence treaty, marking Fiji’s first formal alliance. The timing highlighted the increasingly complex security environment in a region where China, the United States and their allies are competing for influence.

More than a month after the test, Pacific Islands foreign ministers were unable to agree on a collective statement condemning Beijing’s missile launch, despite individual leaders expressing concern about the growing military presence in the region.

Papua New Guinea Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko described the test as “totally inappropriate”, while stressing that China remained a close friend and ally of Papua New Guinea. He said Beijing had provided advance notice of the launch but had not given details about where the missile would land.

China defended the test, saying it had been conducted safely and urging countries not to over-interpret the launch.

Growing Military Activity in the Pacific

The missile test came after a year of increasingly visible military activity across the Pacific, a region that has become a major arena of strategic competition between the United States and China.

Chinese naval deployments and live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea have coincided with U.S.-allied military exercises around Guam and Hawaii. Warship visits and expanding security partnerships have also increased across the region.

The United States retains a substantial military presence in the Pacific, including in Hawaii, Guam and the Marshall Islands.

For Pacific island governments, the growing military presence creates an increasingly difficult choice. Security partnerships can provide valuable capabilities for surveillance, disaster response, policing and training, but they can also increase the possibility that Pacific territory and waters become incorporated into wider strategic competition.

Tuvalu permanent foreign secretary Pasuna Tuaga expressed concern about the broader militarisation of the region, including security arrangements such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States.

Pacific Nations United in Principle but Divided in Practice

Pacific leaders endorsed the Ocean of Peace Declaration in September 2025, committing themselves to protecting the region and strengthening international peace and security.

The initiative reflected a long-standing desire among Pacific states to ensure that their security agenda is not dictated by larger external powers.

The defence agreement between Australia and Fiji, known as the Ocean of Peace Alliance, emerged from this broader regional framework.

But the growing number of security partnerships has created an inherent contradiction. Pacific governments want greater security capabilities while simultaneously opposing the militarisation of their region.

Australia and other partners argue that defence cooperation can strengthen regional resilience. Critics, however, fear that expanding bilateral arrangements could eventually leave Pacific nations with less influence over how their territory, waters and infrastructure are used.

Solomon Islands Foreign Minister Rick Houenipwela said the regional agenda must remain “conceived by the Pacific, shaped by the Pacific and only by the Pacific.”

Yet the failure to produce a unified response to China’s missile test demonstrated just how difficult that principle is to implement.

China Divides Regional Consensus

The disagreement over the missile test reflects the different political and economic interests of Pacific island nations.

Kiribati and Nauru, which have deepened their relations with Beijing after switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan, did not support the wording of the proposed statement, according to an official familiar with the discussions.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters blamed foreign influence for the failure to reach consensus, although he did not identify a particular country.

The disagreement demonstrates that Pacific nations do not share a uniform approach toward China.

Some governments see Beijing as an important economic and diplomatic partner, while others are increasingly concerned about its military activities and the strategic implications of its expanding regional presence.

At the same time, many Pacific governments remain wary of becoming closely aligned with either China or the Western powers.

The Security Dilemma Facing the Pacific

The central problem for Pacific nations is the tension between security and strategic autonomy.

Countries require surveillance capabilities, military training, disaster-response mechanisms and other security resources. Defence partnerships can provide those capabilities.

But greater reliance on external powers can also make it more difficult for Pacific governments to maintain an independent regional agenda.

Fiji Foreign Minister Sakiasi Ditoka acknowledged this tension, saying countries wanted to be free from “war-making paraphernalia” while also recognising that some security capabilities helped keep them safe.

Fiji’s participation for the first time in U.S.-led RIMPAC military exercises further illustrates this balancing act.

The country is simultaneously promoting the idea of an Ocean of Peace while becoming more involved in established regional security structures.

Analysis: The Pacific Is Becoming a Strategic Battleground

The significance of China’s missile test goes beyond the launch itself. It has exposed the growing gap between the Pacific’s aspiration to remain an “Ocean of Peace” and the strategic realities surrounding it.

The region is increasingly being shaped by competing security partnerships, military exercises and the expanding strategic presence of major powers. China is becoming more active militarily, while the United States, Australia and their partners are strengthening their own defence relationships.

For Pacific island states, the challenge is therefore not simply whether to oppose China’s military activities. It is how to respond to them without allowing the Pacific’s security agenda to become dominated by great-power rivalry.

The failure to agree on a common statement is particularly significant because regional unity is one of the Pacific’s strongest tools for maintaining its diplomatic autonomy. When governments cannot agree on how to respond to a major security development, external powers gain greater room to shape the regional agenda.

At the same time, completely rejecting security partnerships would leave many Pacific states without capabilities they consider increasingly necessary. The result is a difficult balancing act: accepting enough external security assistance to address genuine threats while preventing those partnerships from transforming the region into a military theatre.

China’s missile test therefore exposes a deeper strategic dilemma. The more Pacific states seek security through external alliances, the greater the risk that the region becomes militarised; yet the more they reject those partnerships, the harder it may become to respond to an increasingly competitive security environment.

The upcoming Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting in Palau is likely to bring these questions back to the centre of regional diplomacy. The key issue will be whether Pacific nations can establish a collective security approach that protects their interests without allowing the strategic competition between China and Western powers to define the future of the region.

With information from Reuters.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation warns it may halt operations at the country’s largest operating refinery if drone attacks continue.

Firefighters in Libya are battling a massive blaze at the Zawiya refinery following a drone attack, with the country’s national oil company warning it may declare a force majeure and shut down operations if attacks continue.

Libya’s Ambulance and Emergency Service said in a statement on Tuesday there were no “serious injuries” from the fire, with most patients treated for smoke inhalation.

Footage verified by Al Jazeera showed huge flames and thick black ‌smoke billowing over the facility, the largest operating refinery in Libya with a refining capacity of 120,000 barrels per day.

It is located about 40km (25 miles) west of the capital, Tripoli.

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement on Facebook that the fire broke out on Monday evening at tank number 402-T, belonging to the Brega Oil Company.

It said the tank, which contained about 4.5 million litres (1.2 million gallons) of gasoline, was “directly targeted, resulting in a severe fire before the tank completely collapsed”.

The NOC said the attack followed drone strikes on a water desalination plant at the refinery on Sunday and on a naphtha reservoir on Saturday.

The company declared a “maximum emergency” in the region and urged authorities to launch an investigation and bring the perpetrators to justice.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, and the company did ‌not say who they believed was behind them.

In a statement hours later, the NOC said the refinery was “still being subject to sabotage attacks” with a drone targeting an oil blending and filling ⁠plant operated by the Zawiya Oil Refining Company.

It said the drone fell near its main oil tank and a pipeline network used to produce oils for the domestic market, without causing any casualties or damage.

“The company’s board of directors also confirms that if these attacks continue, it will have to declare a state of force majeure and suspend operations at the refinery,” it warned.

The Brega Oil Company, meanwhile, appealed to “all parties to stop the fighting and stay away from oil facilities and depots”. It said “oil facilities are vital infrastructure and owned by all Libyans” and that “protecting them is a national responsibility that does not tolerate any negligence”.

The attacks highlight the continuing security challenges in Libya, where rival administrations and armed groups have retained influence despite a ‌2020 ⁠ceasefire that halted major warfare. The country split in 2014 after a NATO-backed uprising that toppled longtime leader Muammar ⁠Gaddafi in 2011.

Two governments are currently vying for power: the United Nations-recognised administration in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and a rival in the east backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar.

In a statement, the Tripoli-based government said Dbeibah held a meeting earlier in the day with key officials, including the interior minister and the chiefs of some armed groups in the capital, “to follow up on the latest security developments”.

Dbeibah “stressed the need to deal firmly with any transgressions or actions that threaten security or harm vital facilities and installations”, the statement said.

Separately, a Libyan parliamentary panel condemned the attack and called for stronger protection of oil installations.

“The House of Representatives’ Energy and Natural Resources Committee condemns in the strongest terms the criminal attack targeting the Zawiya Refinery, one of the most vital facilities in the oil and gas sector that is a cornerstone of the national economy,” it said in a statement.

The South American nation is only the second country to recognise Israel’s claims over the illegally annexed Syrian territory.

Colombia has become only the second country to recognise Israel’s claim of sovereignty over the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, just days after far-right President Abelardo de la Espriella took power.

Colombia’s Foreign Ministry made the announcement on Monday, joining the United States as the only other country to recognise Israel’s annexation of the territory in 1981.

“The Government of Colombia recognises Israeli sovereignty over this territory, as well as that State’s right to protect itself against external threats,” read a statement published on X.

“Colombia recognises that maintaining Israel’s control and sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an essential component of its national defence,” it added.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar thanked his “good friend” de la Espriella for the “historic” recognition.

He said the pair had agreed on the move in the Colombian city of Barranquilla a day before de la Espriella’s inauguration.

Israel captured most of the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War, before illegally annexing the territory in 1981. The move was rejected by most of the international community, although the US formally recognised Israel’s claim in 2019 during President Donald Trump’s first term in office.

The United Nations recognises the region as a part of Syria, and last month, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres reiterated that stance, describing Israeli occupation as “totally unacceptable”.

Syria tried to regain the Golan in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, but was thwarted. Israel and Syria signed an armistice in 1974, and the Golan has been relatively quiet since.

Colombia’s recognition of the Israeli claim comes as Israel expands its military footprint in Syria following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024. Israel has moved troops into a UN-monitored buffer zone and seized strategic territories, including the Syrian side of Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon), which overlooks the capital, Damascus.

De La Espriella, the new Colombian president, ran a bombastic campaign during which he promised close relations with the US and Israel as a way to combat armed groups in his country.

The US-backed millionaire has promised to restore Bogota’s ties with Israel after his predecessor, Gustavo Petro, criticised Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, severed diplomatic relations and halted Israeli arms imports.

De La Espriella has also cancelled Petro’s plans to open an embassy in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank.

President Donald Trump has signed an order that calls for fewer childhood vaccines and also recommends splitting the mumps, measles and rubella (MMR) shots.

“Decades ago, children received only a small fraction of the vaccines required today,” Trump said on Monday. “In those times, people were much healthier and of course the high rates of autism now observed did not exist.”

The president has long cast doubt on the safety of MMR vaccines, but multiple studies have found no connection between the shots and autism.

The order also recommends that the number of childhood vaccines drop to 11 from the existing 18 recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP).

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said that his administration “is recognising gold standard childhood vaccine recommendations for only 11 core vaccinations against the most serious and dangerous diseases”.

The immunisations recommended for all children under the order are for measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, Haemophilus influenzae type B, pneumococcal disease, human papillomavirus, and varicella or chicken pox.

“We’re reducing them,” Trump said. “It’s not only that you’re doing fewer vaccines, or jabs, as they say, but you’re doing them in a series of visits to the doctor.”

The president suggested that the MMR vaccine could be “quite lethal” if given at once. He compared it to pouring a bottle of soda into a child’s body.

Experts say that allowing time between jabs means children are more likely to contract diseases in the interim or that they are more likely to miss appointments if there are multiple shots.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, external (CDC), there is “no published scientific evidence that shows any benefit in separating the combination MMR vaccine into three individual shots”.

The agency says “most people who get MMR vaccine do not have any serious problems with it”, and that getting the vaccine “is much safer than getting measles, mumps, or rubella”.

Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Robert F Kennedy Jr said the proposed changes were meant to give parents choice, not prohibit access to childhood vaccines.

The federal government does not have the authority to implement the new recommendations. Shots that are required for school attendance are set at the state level.

Dr Andrew Racine, president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, called Trump’s executive order “disheartening” and “dangerous”, pointing out it comes as measles cases reach a 35-year high in the US. Measles cases have also been rising globally.

“Instead of ensuring every family can access life-saving vaccines for measles, influenza, RSV and more, federal leaders are once again spreading misleading claims,” Racine said in a statement on Monday.

He said there was no new evidence to justify the significant changes, adding that the order was not based on “gold-standard science”.

“Delaying or skipping shots is risky, especially as measles continues to spread and children go back to school,” Racine said.

Republican Senator Bill Cassidy also admonished Trump’s executive order on Monday, labelling it “wrong”.

“The President does not have the expertise to make these changes,” Cassidy, who is a physician, wrote on social media. “Vaccines are overwhelmingly safe. Vaccines are effective. Vaccines DO NOT cause autism.”

The lawmaker, who chairs the Senate health committee, urged parents to “listen to their child’s pediatrician about vaccines rather than listening to an inaccurate executive order”.

Experts fear that if parents refrain from getting their children vaccinated as a result of the discredited idea that childhood vaccines are linked to autism, it risks the re-emergence of diseases like measles.

Multiple studies have found no link between the MMR vaccine and autism. A recent high-quality study from Denmark in 2019 looked at 657,461 children and concluded that the data did not support the MMR vaccine causing or triggering autism.

On its website, the US CDC recommends that two doses of the combined MMR vaccine be given to children, starting with the first dose at 12-15 months and the second between the ages of four and six.

How often and how many vaccines children in the US receive is based on the times when vaccines will work best with their immune systems and when they are most vulnerable to certain diseases, according to the AAP.

There is no medical reason to delay or skip recommended immunisations, the AAP says.

Grace Adama puts on her earrings in her two-room flat in Abuja before grabbing her handbag and heading to work.

The health NGO worker earns 135,000 naira ($99) a month, nearly twice Nigeria’s minimum wage. Yet she says her income now disappears within days as the cost of housing, electricity and food continues to rise.

“If I’m paid today, my salary stays with me just for one week,” she told Reuters. “If you see the cost of living, house, electricity, everything has gone up.”

Adama’s experience reflects a wider cost-of-living crisis confronting millions of Nigerians as the country approaches elections. Living standards have deteriorated sharply since President Bola Tinubu introduced a series of sweeping economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, the devaluation of the naira and reductions in electricity subsidies.

The government and investors argue that the reforms were necessary to prevent a deeper fiscal crisis and put Africa’s largest oil producer on a more sustainable economic path.

But for many ordinary Nigerians, the promised benefits have yet to materialise.

The cost of preparing the country’s staple jollof rice has more than doubled since Tinubu took office, according to Lagos-based SBM Intelligence. Petrol prices, meanwhile, have risen roughly sixfold following the removal of subsidies, the weakening of the naira and higher global oil prices.

With elections approaching in January, Tinubu faces the difficult task of convincing voters that the economic pain they have endured will eventually translate into better living standards.

NIGERIANS FEEL THE PAIN AS INVESTORS CHEER

The contrast between economic indicators and everyday life has become increasingly striking.

The World Bank estimates that just over half of Nigeria’s population lived in poverty last year, compared with roughly 42% in 2022.

Some Nigerians have responded to the rising costs by cutting household spending, moving to cheaper accommodation and relying on loans to cover basic expenses.

Adama said she had stopped buying meat regularly, moved to a smaller apartment and was still forced to take short-term loans to pay her bills. She also said she could no longer send money to her elderly mother in Benue state as she had done previously.

“I can’t even send money to my aged mother at home,” she said. “I can’t do a lot of things that I used to do before.”

Yet investors have taken a markedly more positive view of Nigeria’s economic direction.

“This is the most positive investors have been about Nigeria probably in the last two decades,” said Thys Louw, a portfolio manager at Ninety One. “They’re taking the tough medicine now.”

That divergence creates a major political challenge for Tinubu. Financial markets can respond positively to reforms long before their benefits reach households, while voters tend to judge governments according to the immediate cost of food, transport, housing and electricity.

Tinubu has been nicknamed “T-Pain” by some Nigerians frustrated by the rising cost of living.

REFORMS AIM TO END YEARS OF ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS

Tinubu inherited an economy burdened by years of policies that had created significant distortions.

Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, the government maintained petrol subsidies, imposed import restrictions and operated tight currency controls. While those measures were intended to protect consumers and encourage domestic production, they also contributed to shortages, foreign-exchange difficulties and growing pressure on government finances.

Fuel subsidies alone cost the government around $10 billion in 2022.

“We were living in fiscal illusions,” Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said at a recent event in Abuja. “We needed to stop deceiving ourselves so the country can move forward.”

Tinubu’s government therefore moved quickly after taking office to dismantle several of those policies.

The removal of fuel subsidies immediately pushed up transportation and living costs. Currency reforms also caused the naira to lose significant value, increasing the cost of imported goods.

The government argues that these measures were unavoidable and that rebuilding the economy requires accepting short-term pain.

There are signs of progress.

Nigeria’s stock market has risen close to 60% this year. Capital inflows reached a six-year high of $23 billion last year, while the opening of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has created hopes that domestic refining will eventually reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

The government has also pointed to increased investment in domestic oil assets as evidence that its reforms are attracting capital.

But those improvements have not necessarily translated into better household finances.

A BOOMING STOCK MARKET, BUT FEW CAN INVEST

Nigeria’s financial markets have benefited significantly from renewed investor confidence.

However, fewer than 5% of Nigerian adults invest in capital markets, according to the Nigerian stock exchange.

Much of the recent capital inflow has also been concentrated in short-term financial instruments such as Treasury bills, allowing foreign investors to quickly withdraw their money if economic conditions deteriorate.

For ordinary Nigerians, borrowing remains extremely expensive.

The central bank’s key interest rate stands at 26.5% as policymakers attempt to control inflation, which remains close to 16%.

That makes it difficult for businesses to expand and for households to access affordable credit.

At the same time, petrol prices average roughly 1,600 naira ($1.18) per litre nationally. Although that is lower than prices in neighbouring Ghana and Ivory Coast, it remains prohibitively expensive for many Nigerians who had become accustomed to subsidised fuel.

“The solution for me is for government to bring the fuel price down,” said Lagos food seller Eji Uchenna.

She said customers who once purchased food in bulk can no longer afford to do so.

POLITICAL PRESSURE BUILDS

The economic pressure is increasingly becoming a political issue.

In June, federal workers rejected a proposed 100,000-naira minimum wage and threatened an indefinite nationwide strike.

A June voter sentiment tracker by SBM Intelligence found that 80% of Nigerians believed the country was moving in the wrong direction.

Economic hardship is not the only concern. Security, particularly widespread kidnapping, remains a major issue for voters.

Yet widespread dissatisfaction does not necessarily mean Tinubu is vulnerable at the ballot box.

Nigeria’s opposition remains fragmented, reducing the likelihood that dissatisfaction will automatically translate into a coordinated electoral challenge.

“The opposition is disunited, and… the only way the opposition beats Tinubu is if they are united,” said Cheta Nwanze, chief executive of SBM Intelligence.

That gives Tinubu some political space to continue pursuing his economic programme despite the public backlash.

THE TEST IS WHETHER GROWTH REACHES HOUSEHOLDS

Investors remain optimistic that the reforms will eventually produce stronger economic growth, lower inflation and greater investment.

Louw said that if the government maintains its policies, workers could begin to benefit as inflation falls and interest rates decline.

But the transition remains painful, and the government faces growing pressure to ensure that economic gains are not concentrated among investors and businesses while ordinary households continue to struggle.

The central challenge is therefore no longer simply whether Nigeria’s reforms are economically necessary. It is whether the government can make those reforms politically and socially sustainable.

Tinubu must demonstrate that the sacrifices demanded from Nigerians are producing tangible improvements in their daily lives before voters head to the polls.

Finance Minister Oyedele acknowledged that the government must do more to ensure that economic recovery translates into broader prosperity.

“When inequality persists, it becomes dangerous,” he said. “It’s like sitting on gunpowder; it explodes.”

For Nigeria, the coming election will therefore offer a test not only of Tinubu’s political standing but of whether a painful programme of economic reform can deliver benefits quickly enough for ordinary citizens to believe in it.

With information from Reuters.

It is a crucial time for Africa in terms of how it interacts with the rest of the world. Africa is no longer viewed as a place of humanitarian interest or of mere charity. Instead, Africa is increasingly seen as a prize, as a place that contains large populations and is a place where great and emerging powers struggle to win influence. With fifty-five states, more than one billion people, and the youngest population of any continent, Africa’s future will determine the politics of the world for decades to come. However, this potential strategic significance exists in an uneasy context of instability, dependency, and weak governance. The key question this paper seeks to address is whether Africa will remain a subject of outside influence and internal problems, or be able to turn its potential into real strategic power.

A Continent in Transition: Crisis, Change and Transformation

The transition of Africa is evident in its economic output. According to the IMF, it should come as no surprise that sub-Saharan Africa will grow at about 4.3% in 2026 and that the region will be one of the fastest growing in the world, even beating out developed nations facing the challenges of monetary tightening and shrinking populations. It is estimated that nations such as Ethiopia, Guinea, Uganda, Rwanda, and Benin will have growth rates of 7% or more because of mining, construction, industrial parks, and infrastructure spending. Africa’s aggregate nominal GDP will reach around 3.3 trillion dollars in 2026.

This data indicates true evolution; however, these very reports indicate that growth in Africa is uneven since economies relying on resources and importing oil experience worsening trade accounts and increasing cost of living. The contradiction within Africa’s transition process is that while there is economic momentum, there is also economic fragility, which means that growth indicators do not mean development per se.

Shifting Security Landscapes and the Crisis of Regional Stability

One does not have to look further than the Sahel region to see just how critical this problem of stability becomes. Military coups seized control in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger; in these regions, the Alliance of Sahel States was formed and left the Economic Community of West African States. According to the information available from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the level of violence in central Sahel increased dramatically from 2018 to 2024.

Humanitarian organizations working within the United Nations reported approximately nine thousand three hundred casualties in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2025. While the withdrawal of French troops and UN peacekeepers was not completed by an improvement of local armies, the Russia-based Africa Corps, a successor to the Wagner Group, became the main security partner of junta regimes with varied success. Extremist organizations such as Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin and the Islamic State Sahel Province expanded their operations and started to use more often armed drones in their actions with a possibility of destabilization spreading to the countries of the Gulf of Guinea coast.

Economic Crossroads: Resources, Growth and Strategic Dependency

The development of the economy in Africa has a direct connection with the natural resources present in the continent, including the minerals used in the process of energy transition in the world such as copper, cobalt, manganese, and lithium. China has been the largest trading partner of Africa for the past sixteen years, and the expected value of the total trade between these two regions in 2025 is three hundred and forty-eight billion dollars, which is an increase by eighteen percent compared to the preceding year.

The main countries contributing to the largest share of trade include South Africa, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, and Egypt. China is involved in the continent’s economy not only in traditional sectors like natural resources but also in renewables, digitalization, and low carbon technology, as China plans to invest over fifty billion dollars in the continent by 2027 under the Beijing Action Plan. According to Boston University Global Development Policy Center, Africa’s exports to China are mostly raw material and the trade deficit with China is approximately equal to three percent of regional GDP.

Diplomatic Repositioning in an Emerging Multipolar World

The states of Africa are increasingly seeking to assert their independence in a multipolar world. With the admission of the AU to the G20 in 2023, the continent has secured a place among the major powers of the world permanently. Some of the African states have sought membership to BRICS, a power bloc which included Egypt and Ethiopia in addition to the founders and some other new members, making it another power bloc which its supporters argue is an alternative to the Western dominated groupings.

This diplomatic maneuver by the continent represents the larger strategy that the Africans follow in terms of strategic non alignment where they seek relations with all the major centers of power, including the US, China, Russia, Europe, and the Gulf countries. The Africans have used this diplomatic clout to their advantage in securing better deals on debt, trade, and security cooperation. But this diplomatic repositioning itself faces limitations because of the divide among the African states and lack of ability to capitalize on it.

Domestic Politics, Governance and the Crisis of Legitimacy

Underlying the security crossroads and the economic crossroads is a more fundamental crisis of political legitimacy. Since 2020, there have been coups across the Sahel and Central Africa as a manifestation of public discontent with corruption, poor service delivery, and the inability of the civilian government to ensure security. While military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea partly justify their takeover of power by invoking issues of sovereignty and anti-colonial rhetoric – an argument that struck a chord with a lot of people while the indicators of good governance in those countries continued to decline rather than improve.

In other cases, disputed elections, the manipulation of constitutions to prolong the rule of presidents, and the constriction of civic space challenge the viability of the democratic institutions that were put in place after the opening up period of the 1990s. At the same time, a number of countries such as Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia have shown the potential for power transitions and active civil societies, which means that the crisis of legitimacy in Africa is not consistent.

External Powers and the Contest for African Influence

Today’s contest for influence in Africa is characterized by a larger and broader coalition of players than has been seen since the attainment of independence. The United States has attempted to make a comeback through efforts aimed at the development of critical minerals and infrastructure, in response to the increasing influence of China and Russia in the region, although the future of favorable trade policies like the African Growth and Opportunity Act appears to be in doubt due to changes in American trade policy.

The influence of Russia has primarily been gained through security collaboration and disinformation, rather than economic investment. Russian interests lie in forming partnerships without having to be conditional upon the governance of the partner country. Countries from the Gulf region, such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, have invested heavily in ports, agriculture, and renewable energy, especially in the Horn of Africa. The influence of Turkey has been formed in the form of business and military connections, especially in the Sahel and East Africa regions. With so many external partners involved in Africa, there is an increase in the chance that the continent becomes a battleground for great powers, rather than a partner in determining the outcome.

From Strategic Importance to Strategic Agency

The concept of strategic importance and strategic capability is essential to understand the strategic positioning of Africa at present times. Strategic importance is bestowed upon a country by external actors due to the recognition of the natural resources and markets of the region. Strategic capability on the other hand involves the setting of terms by African institutions and states rather than mere reactions to the interests of external forces.

In this regard, the African Continental Free Trade Area, which seeks to create a common market of over one point three billion people is an attempt to exercise such a strategic capability through reduction of dependency on external trade partners and increased intra-African trade which currently constitutes only a limited portion of total trade in the continent. Credibility of organizations like the African Union and Economic Community of West African States in conflict and coup mediation will determine whether African diplomacy will be conducted through collective institutions or ad hoc decisions made by individual African nations.

Now which direction will Africa take?

The geopolitical position of Africa in international politics is that of a paradoxical nature. The African continent can be characterized by both immense economic potential and security crises, both rising diplomatic power and an area of contestation between foreign forces, both a land of resilient democracy and an example of authoritarianism. The statistical information provided above gives evidence of a rising continent, despite the existing weaknesses. Whether or not Africa becomes a strategic player on its own or stays an object of contestation in the new multipolar world will depend solely on decision-making of the African continent. Whether the African continent will follow the path of development or the road of stagnation depends on how Africa will deal with the issues of governance, regional integration and economic diversification.