nato

July 7 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s defense acquisition chief apologized Tuesday for failing to win Canada’s next-generation submarine project, saying alliance interoperability was the decisive factor in Ottawa’s decision.

Lee Yong-cheol, head of South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration, said South Korea’s submarine proposal was competitive on performance, delivery schedule and maintenance, but Canada placed greater weight on its long-standing NATO defense network.

“I am sorry that we were unable to achieve the expected result despite strong public interest and all-out support from the Industry Ministry, Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Navy and other government agencies,” Lee told reporters at the Defense Ministry press room. “The failure to secure the result was due to my lack of ability.”

Canada selected Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems as the preferred bidder for its Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, which aims to replace the Royal Canadian Navy’s aging submarine fleet.

Lee said Canada appeared to consider several factors, including fuel cell-based air-independent propulsion technology, battery performance, Germany’s record of supplying submarines to more than one-third of NATO members, alliance interoperability, crew sharing, joint training, maintenance, parts supply and industrial benefits tied to jobs and maintenance facilities.

“In terms of submarine performance, early delivery and regional benefits such as maintenance, repair and overhaul, I do not believe there was a meaningful gap with our proposal,” Lee said. “In delivery schedule, even considering Norway’s production slot, we were faster.”

“The decisive difference appears to have been NATO interoperability and cooperation that allows crew sharing,” he said.

A defense acquisition official said South Korea’s submarines should not be seen as inferior in operational capability.

“Submarines, for which stealth is most important, do not operate by constantly exchanging wireless communications,” the official said. “We do not believe our submarine had weaker operational capability. Canada appears to have judged that sharing future operating systems and parts would be relatively easier with Germany.”

The official said Canada’s geography and Arctic security concerns likely shaped the decision.

“Canada stretches across both ends of the North American continent and must cover both the Atlantic and Pacific,” the official said. “Personally, I think the difference in Arctic security priorities also played a major role. For South Korea, the Arctic is more of a conceptual issue, but for Canada it is a real security concern.”

The official said Canada’s Indo-Pacific defense cooperation with South Korea is still developing, while its Atlantic alliance structure has been operating for more than 70 years.

“Training among those allies is routine, to the point where they can discuss sharing submarine crew members,” the official said. “South Korea has only recently begun joint exercises with Canada. Canada chose to strengthen an existing alliance framework, and I think that strategic choice should be respected.”

The agency said the failed bid still produced meaningful results for South Korea’s defense industry.

Lee cited South Korea’s previous loss in Norway’s K2 tank procurement, saying the tank passed performance testing in harsh winter conditions but narrowly failed to win the contract.

“Poland took close note of that performance and moved aggressively to sign a contract,” Lee said. “This challenge may also lead to another reversal.”

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260707010002453

Turkey renewed its push for greater defence cooperation within NATO on Wednesday as President Tayyip Erdogan urged alliance members to remove restrictions that limit defence-industrial collaboration among allies. Ankara has long argued that political disagreements should not prevent NATO members from working together on defence projects, particularly as Europe seeks to strengthen its military capabilities in response to growing security threats.

The appeal comes as NATO leaders gather in Ankara for a summit focused on increasing defence spending, expanding military production and reinforcing the alliance amid continued tensions with Russia and instability in the Middle East.

Erdogan calls for equal defence cooperation

Addressing NATO leaders at the opening of the summit, Erdogan said restrictions on defence cooperation between allies should be removed.

“Restrictions among allies on defence cooperation, especially in the defence industry, must be lifted,” he said.

He warned that excluding NATO members that are outside the European Union from European defence initiatives could create unnecessary divisions.

“At a time when a model of cooperation based on common sense and reason is possible, excluding allies that are not members of the (European) Union would lead to artificial divisions in Europe,” Erdogan said.

Turkey seeks greater role in European defence

Turkey has repeatedly sought participation in European defence initiatives, including the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) funding programme, which aims to strengthen the continent’s defence industry.

Despite possessing NATO’s second-largest military and becoming a major producer and exporter of defence equipment, Ankara has largely remained outside several Europe-led security projects because of political disputes with some EU member states.

Turkish officials argue that NATO allies should cooperate more closely regardless of EU membership.

Trump signals possible policy shift

Erdogan’s appeal came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated Washington could ease some longstanding tensions with Ankara.

During a meeting with Erdogan on Tuesday, Trump said he intended to lift U.S. sanctions imposed on Turkey and would decide whether to allow Ankara back into the F-35 fighter jet programme.

Turkey was removed from the programme after purchasing Russia’s S-400 air defence system in 2019, a move that triggered U.S. sanctions and strained relations between the two NATO allies.

Any decision to reverse those measures is expected to face opposition in the U.S. Congress.

Turkey pledges higher defence spending

Erdogan said Turkey remains on track to meet NATO’s target of spending 5% of gross domestic product on defence by 2030.

He announced that Ankara had allocated an additional $24 billion to its Steel Dome integrated air defence project, which is intended to strengthen both Turkey’s national security and NATO’s collective air and missile defence capabilities.

The Turkish president also called on alliance members to assume greater responsibility for Europe’s security while preserving NATO unity.

Future outlook

Turkey is expected to continue pressing for full participation in European defence initiatives as NATO members expand military spending and industrial cooperation. Whether European governments are prepared to ease political objections remains uncertain, while any U.S. decision on sanctions relief or Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme is likely to face congressional scrutiny. The outcome could shape Ankara’s role in NATO’s evolving defence architecture in the coming years.

With information from Reuters.

ANKARA, Turkey — President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. will give a license to Ukraine to manufacture Patriot air defense systems to help counter Russian missile attacks, a huge coup for Ukraine which has badly needed the technology for the war now in its fifth year.

“We’ll give them the right to make Patriots. We’ll show them how to do it,” Trump said as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a NATO summit in Turkey. “I think they can produce them pretty quickly.”

Patriots are expensive, in high demand and take a long time to produce. Zelensky has for years been asking for more of them, and more recently for a license so that Ukraine can manufacture its own.

The tone of Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian leader was a break from earlier encounters which ended in acrimony, and Trump praised Zelensky’s willingness to reach a deal on ending the fighting in Ukraine.

He said the Ukrainian president has “done an amazing job” and “been very effective” in the war.

“We’ve actually developed a good relationship. It’s hard to believe,” Trump said, adding he believed a deal on ending the war was on the horizon and that the U.S. would “work on some kind of security package” to provide to Ukraine.

Trump takes aim at NATO partners

Trump wasn’t as friendly, however, with some his NATO partners, saying he was unhappy with the alliance for pushing back against his efforts to take control of Greenland and for not supporting his war in Iran.

NATO’s European members plus Canada have scrambled to meet the increased defense spending targets Trump has demanded, as the U.S. draws down the number of troops it has in Europe and insists that the continent take more responsibility for its own security.

But Trump reopened old wounds as he arrived at the meeting of 32 NATO leaders by insisting again that the United States should control Greenland, a semiautonomous Danish territory. He blasted some European countries for refusing to participate in the Iran campaign, singling out Spain as “a terrible partner in NATO” and renewing his threats to cut off trade.

Ahead of the summit, Trump said Greenland “is very important” for the U.S. but not for Denmark, declaring, “We need it for protection of the world, not just the United States.”

But Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her country is “ready to defend every inch of NATO including our own territory” in the event of an attack, and would rely on NATO allies to honor their commitment to defend each other.

Trump’s criticisms have in the past drawn European countries closer together as they confront wars in Ukraine and Iran, a ballooning trade deficit with China, and threats from Russia.

The president’s renewed interest in Greenland could put at risk the entire future of NATO, which was founded in 1949 to counter the threat to European security posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sought to tamp down the president’s ire by giving him credit for recent increases in defense spending from NATO allies.

“Grab the win. It’s there,” Rutte told Trump on Wednesday.

NATO chief backs latest U.S. strikes on Iran

Ahead of the summit, Rutte praised Trump for the series of U.S. strikes on Iran overnight, after Tehran struck three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think what you did last night was absolutely necessary,” Rutte said to Trump. “It was a very strong response, and I’m with you on this.”

The U.S. strikes, as well as the revoking of a license allowing Iran to sell its oil on global markets, underscored the fragility of an interim deal to end months of fighting.

Trump said of the interim agreement with Iran: “For me, I think it’s over” — but added he will allow talks to continue.

“It’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” he said.

NATO leaders sought to show Trump they were boosting defense

Rutte has dedicated a huge amount of energy to keeping Trump’s support for NATO and to holding the summit together.

The NATO chief pointed to countries including Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Denmark that are investing more in defense, but noted the Trump administration expects “the Europeans and Canadians will equalize their spending with the United States.”

Last month Rutte went to Washington to hail the “Trump Trillion” — the $1.2 trillion that European allies and Canada have added to defense spending since Trump came to power in 2017.

As leaders converged on Ankara, Rutte hosted a “big reveal” event to showcase the many deals planned for the increased spending — much of it to be spent on U.S. companies, creating thousands of jobs for Americans.

At last year’s summit, the allies agreed to invest 5% of their gross domestic product on defense — 3.5% on their defense budgets and 1.5% on infrastructure so troops and equipment can move faster in times of conflict.

Yet figures released by NATO on Tuesday showed that Slovenia, Belgium, Spain and the Czech Republic have struggled to meet the alliance’s old spending target of 2% of GDP.

The Trump administration wants to see a leaner “NATO 3.0,” with Europe taking responsibility for its own security, including Ukraine, with conventional weapons while America would continue to provide its nuclear umbrella.

The Pentagon has launched a six-month review of U.S. military presence in Europe, leaving allies to seek clarity on just how deeply Trump intends to cut U.S. force numbers.

Ukraine’s Zelensky pushes for NATO entry

Zelensky made a fresh appeal Tuesday for Ukraine to be allowed to join the alliance, saying Ukrainian armed forces are highly experienced and would only boost NATO’s defense capabilities.

He’s highlighted Ukraine’s adaptability and its ability to strike deep inside Russia. He said Ukraine’s armed forces are “eliminating” on average 30,000 Russian troops every month.

Concern has been mounting among some countries with borders near Russia that Moscow might be preparing a hybrid attack — a combination of conventional warfare with tactics like cyberattacks — on the continent as President Vladimir Putin struggles to secure victory in Ukraine.

Trump will also meet with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former insurgent who led the offensive that unseated autocrat Bashar Assad in December 2024. Despite having once been an al-Qaida fighter, al-Sharaa has won Trump’s backing as he seeks to rebuild Syria and restore its shattered ties with the West.

Cook, Kim and Fraser write for the Associated Press. AP journalists Collin Binkley and Michelle L. Price in Washington contributed to this report.

US President Donald Trump says the US will ‘probably’ carry out another round of strikes on Iran on Wednesday night, following overnight strikes he said were launched in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

July 8 (UPI) — NATO countries in Europe, plus Canada, agreed Wednesday to jointly spend $50 billion over the coming decade on developing new ground-based “deep precision strike capabilities,” including an advanced missile with a 1,250 mile range to defend the continent and beyond.

Launched by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the NATO Summit in Ankara, the project brings together Britain, France, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Greece, Czechia, Slovakia, Turkey and Canada, Downing Street said in a news release.

The initiative was, Britain said, proof that allies were taking action to strengthen Europe’s ability to defend by “radically boosting NATO’s defense and deterrence capabilities” and ensuring a “more European NATO.”

“We must step up to deliver a stronger, more European NATO. The U.K.is already working with partners to develop exquisite capability that will give our Armed Forces the ability to defend and deter thousands of kilometres from the front line, but this U.K.-led initiative will allow us to step up our cooperation, bringing European Allies together to ensure NATO remains safe and secure for years to come,” said Starmer.

NATO said in a statement that the breakthrough came after NATO allies “made progress on providing innovative and cost-effective solutions for munitions and deep strike systems, delivering them faster and at greater scale.”

The costs and complexity involved in developing and making advanced strike capabilities, together with recurring compatibility and interchangeability problems and the rapidly evolving threat of long-range strikes requiring a nimble response, meant it made sense for allies to work together, NATO said.

Leveraging multinational projects and shared defense purchasing would spread the cost, realize economies of scale and deliver field capabilities much faster than working individually, it added.

Britain, France, Italy, Denmark, Norway and Turkey will work together on developing the proposed long-range missile deterrent and other “novel deep precision strike capabilities,” including new missiles and launchers.

The remainder of the countries — plus Denmark, Norway and Turkey — agreed to work together to address issues created by the array of different weapons systems used by NATO member states by developing a prototype generic NATO artillery round, aimed at establishing standards for a “future fully interchangeable, interoperable NATO 155mm munition.”

Speaking in Ankara, British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the new deep precision strike capability would deter would-be aggressors by enabling NATO to target high-value military assets and “the logistical engines that drive armies.

“At Ankara we are sending a clear message to President Putin; NATO is stronger, more European and ready to defend our citizens against the long-term threat posed by him and the Russian state,” said Cooper.

Britain is already working on a multi-billion-dollar project to jointly develop long-range stealth and hypersonic missiles with Germany as part of an enhanced defense cooperation pact between the countries signed in summer 2024.

It is also working with France and Italy on Stratus, a new family of long-range cruise and anti-ship weapon, to replace the Storm Shadow cruise missile and Harpoon and Exocet anti-ship weapons used by the militaries of the three countries.

Stratus is being developed by the pan-European defense contractor MBDA Missile Systems.

Wednesday’s developments came amid a summit at which the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has been doubling down on its burden-sharing message that Europe must shoulder more responsibility for its own defense and for member states to meet pledges made in The Hague in 2025 to up core military spending to 3.5% of GDP, or 5% total defense and security-related spending.

ANKARA, Turkey — President Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. will lift sanctions on Turkey that were issued after Ankara purchased a Russian missile defense system that led to the country being kicked out of the F-35 fighter jet program.

There are still a number of legal hurdles before Turkey could be fully admitted back to the U.S. program, but the removal of the sanctions — issued under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act — would help ease the process for Ankara to regain access to the F-35s, a top goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and one that Trump has predicted for some time would occur.

“We’re going to be taking the sanctions off, OK?” Trump said in response to a question during a meeting with Erdogan at the presidential palace in Ankara. He said Cabinet officials were working on the matter. Earlier in the meeting, he said the possibility of selling the F-35s to Turkey is “certainly something we will consider.”

Trump and Erdogan repeatedly underscored their warm relationship as they met soon after the U.S. president arrived in Ankara for the NATO summit. Erdogan greeted the U.S. president with an elaborate welcome ceremony involving cannons, military officials on horseback and jets flying overhead emitting red, white and blue smoke.

“Sometimes you get along with the toughest people, like him,” Trump said, gesturing to Erdogan. The U.S. president repeatedly praised Turkey for its loyalty to the U.S., particularly during the war in Iran.

Trump, who has often upended NATO gatherings with complaints that European allies did not spend enough on defense, had said he would not have attended this year’s summit had it not been for his close ties with Erdogan.

‘Moment of great pride’

Earlier in the day, NATO showcased a series of military projects worth billions of dollars — an investment that the alliance’s secretary-general, Mark Rutte, called “money well spent.”

An energized Rutte was speaking to government ministers and defense industry officials at a forum billed as NATO’s “big reveal,” to the thrum of techno music and a slick video display.

NATO as an organization does not own any weapons — these are the property of the 32 member countries — but it does have a fleet of 14 AWACS early warning radar surveillance planes that are about 50 years old, along with some newer surveillance drones.

A deal to replace the aging planes was announced Tuesday. Swedish manufacturer Saab will be supplying up to 10 new GlobalEye surveillance aircraft for a 10-nation consortium, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced.

“It’s a moment of great pride,” he said, noting that the twin-engine aircraft would be “made within the alliance for all the alliance.”

Some of the projects will be paid for with funds from a system of cheap loans for defense purposes set up by the European Union, comprising up to $170 billion raised on capital markets.

“We need to ensure that we are translating our economic might into military capabilities, putting the cash to work from defense plans to drones, from money to missiles and interceptors,” Rutte said.

Trump has branded NATO a “paper tiger” that would cease to function without American arms and leadership. At the forum on Tuesday, Michael Duffy, a U.S. undersecretary of defense, said “the reality is that we need production increases across the board.”

“We will be looking to increase our exports to those who are looking to buy our equipment, and we’ll also be looking to partner with the expansion of production capacity here in Europe,” he said.

Defense sales announced

Representatives from 15 nations shook hands and patted shoulders on a vast podium under the NATO logo as they announced a multinational effort to buy air-to-air refueling and transport planes from Airbus.

Then Rutte announced a four-country effort to purchase as many as five new Triton surveillance drones to add to NATO’s small fleet.

“It is genuinely made in NATO, and creating jobs on both sides of the Atlantic,” he said.

Rutte told reporters on the eve of the military alliance’s two-day summit in Turkey that “we will announce tens of billions in new contracts that will provide the crucial kit we need to deter and defend.”

However, at Tuesday’s event, no dollar figures were given and the display included some projects long since agreed.

The defense industry splash comes a few weeks after Rutte tried to ease U.S. concerns about military spending at NATO with a new pitch using a chart labeled “The Trump Trillion” — showing $1.2 trillion in spending by European allies and Canada since 2017.

Trump appeared unmoved, saying he was still disappointed at some NATO allies’ refusal to join the Iran war, which he had launched alongside Israel without consulting them.

“We don’t need their money — we don’t need anything,” Trump said. “I just want loyalty.”

Debate over jet sales to Turkey

The summit is being held in Erdogan’s sprawling palace compound in Ankara, and Trump has suggested he would come bearing gifts for the Turkish leader.

Turkey was barred from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019 after it purchased Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. When asked about the fate of Turkey’s return to the F-35 system, Trump said as he sat next to Erdogan that “it’s certainly something we will consider.

Speaking Monday on the morning show “Fox & Friends,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the U.S. not to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, saying that Erdogan “calls openly for the annihilation of Israel.”

Turkey and Israel have acrimonious relations. Erdogan frequently accuses Israel of committing genocide in its war in Gaza, triggered by the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Netanyahu said selling Turkey F-35s would “upset the power balance in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority and also, I think, by America’s posture in the Middle East.”

Turkey beefed up security and banned protests in Ankara during the summit, but a small group of demonstrators gathered on Tuesday in the capital. They were quickly surrounded by police, and a legal association said 22 students affiliated with the leftist Turkish Workers Party and three lawyers had been detained.

Seeking a stronger Europe for a stronger NATO

The Pentagon wants a reboot and is promoting what it calls “NATO 3.0,” a vision of the alliance in which Europe assumes greater responsibility for its own defense, freeing the U.S. to concentrate on other priorities.

But hiking defense spending means increasing taxes or diverting resources from other priorities. U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey unexpectedly quit last month, saying the British government was not willing to spend at a time of rising threats.

Separately on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a fresh appeal for his country to be allowed to join the alliance, saying its armed forces are highly experienced and resilient would only boost the alliance’s defense capabilities.

He highlighted Ukraine’s adaptability and its ability to strike deep inside Russia, hit oil refineries and other energy targets. He said that Ukraine’s armed forces are “eliminating” on average 30,000 Russian troops every month.

“Frankly we take no pride in this,” Zelensky said, noting that the war with Russia — now in its fifth year — is “a war we did not seek but one we are forced to fight.”

Concern is mounting among some northern and central eastern countries that Russia might be preparing a hybrid attack — a combination of conventional warfare with tactics like cyberattacks — on the continent as Russian President Vladimir Putin struggles to secure victory in Ukraine.

Cook, Fraser, Sewell and Kim write for the Associated Press. AP writers Jill Lawless in London and Andy Wilks in Istanbul contributed to this report.

A NATO summit is being held in Turkiye as US President Donald Trump pressures member states over defence spending. Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid explains how NATO has changed since Trump was elected.

July 7 (UPI) — Leaders of the Western world’s premier military alliance will gather in Ankara on Tuesday for the start of this year’s NATO summit, with support for Ukraine and questions over U.S. President Donald Trump‘s commitment to the pact expected to dominate the two-day meeting.

The summit in Turkey’s capital is formally focused on reviewing progress made since last year, when the leaders of NATO’s 32 members agreed to raise their annual defense-related spending from the previous 2% target to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035 amid growing global security concerns.

Major new policy pronouncements are not expected, though several large arms deals are. The focus of the two-day summit will be on progress toward that defense-investment plan and how allies intend to spend the money to increase weapons production, cooperation and joint procurement.

Attention will also be on Trump and the U.S. commitment to NATO after his administration announced earlier this year that it would withdraw some American troops from Germany.

Long a demand of Trump’s, the increase in defense spending has done little to curb the American president’s long-held criticism of the alliance, which has intensified since NATO allies offered limited support for the U.S. war against Iran.

Trump departed Maryland’s Joint Base Andrews aboard Air Force One for Turkey a little after 9:40 EDT Monday, with State Secretary Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and a number of aides with him.

Trump is expected to meet with Zelensky during the summit.

The two spoke Saturday, according to the Ukrainian leader, who said he called the U.S. president to congratulate him on the United States’ Independence Day.

“We are grateful to the United States for all the assistance we have received — from Javelins and Patriots to political support — and we deeply value that America stands by us in defending our independence,” he said online, adding that they had discussed the situation in the Ukraine-Russia war.

“We have agreed to continue these discussions during the NATO Summit in Ankara,” he said.

On the eve of the Fourth of July, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for nearly 90 minutes, according to the Kremlin, which said in a statement that they discussed “the Ukrainian settlement, including in light of Donald Trump’s upcoming participation in the NATO Summit.”

The Kremlin said Putin framed the current situation of the war as Russia “steadily advancing” despite Ukraine making recent gains and expanding its long-range attacks.

However, Russia has been targeting Kyiv with massive attacks leading up to the summit. Zelensky has been calling on allies for additional long-range weaponry, or the ability to produce the arms themselves, arguing that if Ukraine can batter Moscow how the Kremlin has been hitting Kyiv, an end to the war could be rapidly secured.

“We have proven to all our partners both the need, and more importantly, the possibility of providing greater protection of lives,” Zelensky said in a Monday statement.

“It is simply nonsensical that, in today’s world, production has still not been scaled up to the level that is actually needed to protect people from ballistic terror. We have long made the case that we are capable of producing such defensive weapons ourselves. If Ukraine were granted U.S. licenses to produce Patriots, our own production would be sufficient both to protect Ukraine and to help partners in need.”

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Monday night that Russian forces were likely timing these large-scale strikes to send a political message ahead of the summit.

NATO leaders are meeting in Ankara, Turkiye on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The summit gets underway as US President Donald Trump renews pressure on member states over defence spending. European nations are expected to respond with billions of dollars in new military contracts.

At the NATO summit last year, members agreed to increase their target to 5 percent of GDP: 3.5 percent on military spending by 2035 and 1.5 percent on security-related needs.

Who is there and what is at stake?

Leaders from all 32 NATO member states are at the summit in Turkiye this week.

Two non-alliance heads of state will also be there: Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South Korea’s Lee Jae-myung.

Australia, Japan and New Zealand are sending defence or foreign ministers, as are Gulf countries affected by the US-Israel war on Iran: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is not expected to attend the summit but is holding a bilateral meeting with Trump in Ankara.

What Trump wants from NATO allies

Trump has questioned NATO’s value since his first presidential campaign. He argued that the US carried an unfair share of the costs. At the time, only five countries spent the agreed two percent GDP on defence.

His questions about shared defence responsibility have produced some results in recent years within the alliance as member states pledged an increased defence budget.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the German Marshall Fund’s regional director for Turkiye, believes NATO this year will focus on implementing its promises from last year. “NATO allies just decided to increase their defence spending to five percent last year at The Hague and European allies took action to upgrade their defence industries,” he said. “This year in Ankara the discussion will be on how to translate spending to capabilities. It is therefore stronger than it was last year.”

But Paolo von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute, noted that any capability gains from increased spending are years away, saying that more orders mean more military hardware but only eventually. “You can spend a lot and obtain not too much,” he said.

What Ukraine needs from this summit

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting Trump for a bilateral meeting on Wednesday. Ukraine is not a NATO member.

Zelenskyy will be using his face-to-face with the US president to request additional Patriot air defence systems as Russian attacks are intensifying on Ukrainian cities. A drone attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv killed at least 11 people on Monday morning.

Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute said that Ukraine is looking for ongoing political and military technical support from alliance members, to signal to Russia “that this support will be sustained”.

The idea, he said, was “to show Russia that there will be no diminution in its defensive capacity over the next 12-24 months”.

“There is a direct correlation between the number of interceptors supplied to Ukraine and the damage that Russia can inflict with ballistic missiles,” says Watling.

What European nations are trying to solve for

The billions in contracts expected to be announced by European nations at this summit are seen by some analysts as trying to appease the Trump administration.

When European nations didn’t join the war on Iran, Trump stated he didn’t want their money, just their “loyalty”. He added he might not have attended the summit if it wasn’t hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey has in recent years not only increased its defence spending, it also has grown into one of NATO’s largest military exporters.

For now, the tone around defence spending remains sharp. On the eve of the summit, Trump called Germany’s defence spending “ridiculous”. Chancellor Friedrich Merz defended his country’s budget, saying that “this is the greatest effort we have ever made to strengthen our defence capabilities”.

Meanwhile, the US has gone a step beyond rhetoric and announced a phased withdrawal of warplanes, destroyers and submarines from NATO countries. “Less US infantry or armour in Europe has an impact on messaging but little else,” Watling said. But, he added, “the withdrawal of US air power has a more tangible impact”.

Whether the alliance can project unity amid the rhetoric and withdrawals is a key question, said analysts.

“The main value of this summit is political, it shows that the allies are still talking, still meeting, still trying to project unity, even if the underlying disagreements and doubts haven’t disappeared,” von Schirach of the Global Policy Institute said. “Ankara is more about reassurance and signalling than about concrete, immediate changes on the ground.”

Defence spending and support for Ukraine’s military needs are expected to top the agenda of summit in Turkish capital.

WASHINGTON — The leaders of Europe are bracing for another turbulent summit with President Trump this week as NATO members gather for their annual meeting in the Turkish capital.

European diplomats view Trump’s decision to attend as a positive sign of his continued commitment to the alliance. But the president’s grievances with several European governments over their refusal to join the U.S. war with Iran have cast a pall over a summit already strained by Trump’s wavering support for the continent.

The secretary-general of the transatlantic alliance, Mark Rutte, told reporters on Monday that Trump had aired his resentments in a recent phone call. But Rutte countered with a mix of flattery and countervailing facts that has thus far kept Trump engaged.

While Trump has accused European leaders of denying U.S. forces access to allied bases for takeoffs and refueling during the war, Rutte noted that about 5,000 sorties supporting Operation Epic Fury launched from European airfields. And last Friday, France and Britain committed to a joint military mission with Oman to support freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz — “an extremely important development,” Rutte said.

At last year’s summit, held in The Hague, all NATO member states — with the exception of Spain — agreed to spend 5% of their GDP on defense by 2035, marking a significant increase in historic spending goals for modern Europe. The pledge is divided into two categories, with 3.5% of spending allocated to core military requirements, and the rest committed to a broad set of security-related investments.

Trump’s tough love on the alliance “is, I think, bringing NATO closer together,” the secretary general told reporters.

“You could argue that he is the first president of the U.S. since Eisenhower who was able to come to this situation where the Europeans and the Canadians will spend the same as the Americans” on security, Rutte said. “This equalization was a wish for 50, 60 years, and now it’s happening — I think in large part due to his leadership.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte speaks to reporters Monday ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

(Hussein Malla / Associated Press)

In a video message posted on social media Monday, Trump’s ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, said the summit this week would serve as a “report card” to determine whether countries were beginning to fulfill their commitments from last year.

He offered a note of optimism and suggested the president’s goal is to enhance, rather than undermine, the alliance.

“The United States will be here, but we also need our allies to be here. We cannot do it alone, and the American taxpayer should no longer bear the burden,” Whitaker said.

A White House schedule for Trump’s trip lists bilateral meetings with Rutte and the leaders of Turkey, Syria and Ukraine, in between alliance-wide meals and conferences.

Ukraine will remain at the top of the agenda, Trump told reporters Monday, expressing hope that the war could soon come to an end after four brutal years of fighting.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused the greatest loss of life in Europe since World War II, resulting in more than 1 million casualties, including an estimated 600,000 dead. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022, following his covert invasions of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and eastern regions in 2014, Russian forces have captured roughly 12% of Ukraine’s territory.

The war has settled into a deadly stalemate since a 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to break Russian defensive lines. While Russian forces have occasionally advanced, they have only managed to hold marginal gains along the front, at tremendous cost.

In recent weeks, however, expanded Ukrainian drone and missile capabilities have shifted the dynamic, striking military production sites deep inside Russia and targets near Moscow, bringing the war more directly into the Russian public consciousness and raising questions in the Russian capital whether the war effort is sustainable.

Ukraine’s boldness has impressed the Trump administration, Alexander Stubb, the president of Finland, told the Financial Times this week.

“I think he does feel pressure,” Trump said of Putin, addressing reporters in the Oval Office before departing for Turkey on Monday.

The president referred to an ongoing U.S. effort to end the war, a goal that has remained elusive for Trump since returning to office.

“I think we’re getting much closer than people realize,” he said. “President Putin wants it to end, I will tell you that. Very strongly. Had a good call. And President Zelensky actually wants it to end now.”

“We’re going to be going to NATO, and we’re going to be talking about it,” Trump added. “And I think we’re going to get it ended. It’s been terrible.”

A Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s capital has killed at least 10 people and injured 46 on the eve of a NATO summit. Al Jazeera’s Audrey MacAlpine reports from a residential building that was hit.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had warned of a likely attack ahead of meeting with US President Donald Trump.

A Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s Kyiv has killed at least 10 people and damaged more than a dozen residential buildings in the second large-scale assault on the Ukrainian capital in less than a week.

The attack early on Monday morning injured at least 46 people in Kyiv, according to Tymur Tkachenko, head of the city’s military administration.

Another person was killed and 10 others were injured in districts surrounding Kyiv, according to authorities.

Ukraine’s military said Russia fired 68 missiles and 351 drones overnight.

The Kyiv Independent reported that the first explosions were heard at about 1:40am local time, followed by more strikes at 2:10am and 3:15am.

Thousands of residents fled to underground shelters, it reported, as air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine.

At least 15 buildings were damaged in Kyiv in the strikes, including four in the capital’s historic Podilskyi district, Tkachenko said.

Rescue work is under way across the capital and the death toll could rise, he said.

“Unfortunately, this is not the final information,” Tkachenko told reporters as the death toll jumped to nine from seven in Kyiv.

In his nightly address on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that another Russian assault might be coming before the NATO summit in Turkiye this week.

He is due to meet United States President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the summit, which begins on Tuesday.

“Intelligence once again indicates that the Russians are preparing a new massive strike,” Zelenskyy said, according to the Kyiv Independent.

“This is typical of Putin: right after America’s Independence Day and before the NATO summit in Ankara.”

Late last week, Russia hit the Ukrainian capital with dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones, killing 31 people.

The strikes were the deadliest to hit Kyiv this year.

Both Russia and Ukraine have recently expanded their use of long-range weapons, including missiles, marking a new front in the four-year war.

Ukraine has focused its attacks on Russian energy facilities to weaken its war efforts.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of Russian-controlled Sevastopol, a Black Sea port in Crimea, said on Monday a Ukrainian strike near the city had knocked out electricity supplies.

“Following an enemy attack on energy infrastructure near Sevastopol, our city was temporarily left without electricity,” Razvozhayev wrote on Telegram.

Rescuers in Kyiv are racing to find people trapped under the rubble of partly demolished apartment blocks, after at least nine were killed in Russia’s second round of strikes on the Ukrainian capital in a week.

Kyiv’s top military administrator Timur Tkachenko said 46 people were injured, with at least five children injured.

The strikes come on the eve of the Nato summit in Turkey, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to hold talks with US President Donald Trump.

Hours before the latest strikes, Zelensky warned that Moscow was preparing a second “massive strike” on Kyiv following its attacks on Thursday that killed 30 people.

Russian ballistic missiles hit several buildings across the city, Mayor Vitaly Klitschko said, adding that fires had broken out in some apartment complexes.

Warehouses and a garage workshop were also damaged, according to the mayor.

Photos emerging from Kyiv show smouldering wreckage and charred cars littered throughout the city. Footage also shows crews continuing to comb through wreckage on Monday morning to find survivors.

Zelensky said on Sunday, hours ahead of the strikes, that intelligence indicated that Kyiv would come under a second wave of Russian attacks in a week.

After a barrage of drone and missile strikes through Thursday night, tens of thousands of residents evacuated to metro stations around the city as alarms blared in the early hours of Friday morning.

Ukraine accused Moscow of deliberately attacking civilian areas in the attack, which left at least 30 people dead. Russia said it had targeted military and energy bases in retaliation for recent Ukrainian strikes on power stations and energy facilities in Russian territory.

Such attacks continued overnight with power being cut off temporarily in the city of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Ahead of the Nato meeting, Zelensky urged allies to not delay on supplies of long-range missiles to be used against Russia.

He wrote on X: “Any delay with missiles for our air defense… means the loss of lives, and it encourages Russia to continue the war.”

Zelensky has also appealed to the US to grant Ukraine licences to manufacture Patriot defence missiles.

July 3 (Asia Today) — South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Türkiye and Mongolia next week to promote defense industry cooperation, strengthen the country’s ability to respond to future warfare and expand economic ties with the resource-rich Central Asian nation.

Lee will attend the NATO summit in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday at the invitation of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, national security adviser Wi Sung-lac said during a presidential office briefing Friday.

He will then make a state visit to Mongolia from Thursday through Saturday.

The South Korean government said Lee’s participation in the NATO summit would provide an opportunity to promote the country’s defense products among members of the world’s largest military alliance.

Seoul also hopes to improve cooperation with NATO in emerging military technologies including drones, artificial intelligence and space systems.

Lee is scheduled to arrive in Ankara on Tuesday afternoon and hold talks with Rutte on strengthening cooperation between South Korea and NATO.

He will participate in a small-group meeting with Rutte and representatives of NATO’s four Indo-Pacific partners: South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Lee will also attend the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, which brings together government officials and defense executives to discuss industrial production, investment and technological innovation.

He is scheduled to deliver a keynote address during a session titled “Shared Values, Stronger Industrial Base” and participate in a panel discussion.

Lee will attend an official welcoming dinner hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Tuesday evening.

The South Korean president plans to hold bilateral meetings Wednesday with leaders of countries that have significant potential for defense and other economic cooperation. The presidential office said the schedules for those meetings were still being coordinated.

Wi said the visit would establish a foundation for South Korean defense companies to expand into NATO markets and participate in more resilient international supply chains.

South Korea is not a NATO member, meaning its weapons and communications systems must meet alliance standards to be integrated smoothly with equipment operated by NATO countries.

“We need to advance partnerships that strengthen interoperability in line with NATO standards so South Korean defense products can be exported smoothly to NATO allies,” Wi said.

South Korea has increased defense exports to European countries in recent years, particularly Poland, which has purchased K2 tanks, K9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light combat aircraft and Chunmoo multiple-launch rocket systems.

The government has set a goal of making South Korea one of the world’s four largest defense exporters.

Wi said Lee would use the defense industry forum to emphasize South Korean manufacturers’ technological capabilities and ability to deliver weapons quickly.

“We will directly communicate the excellence and rapid procurement capabilities of South Korea’s defense industry to NATO allies and partners,” Wi said.

The government also hopes South Korean armed forces and private companies can participate more actively in NATO innovation networks involving drones, space technology and other emerging defense systems.

Wi said such participation could give South Korean organizations opportunities to acquire critical technologies, conduct joint research and strengthen their ability to respond to future conflicts.

Mongolia state visit

Lee will travel to Ulaanbaatar on Thursday after completing his NATO schedule.

He will meet Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh for a summit followed by an exchange of agreements and memorandums of understanding and a joint news conference.

The two governments plan to issue a declaration titled “A Golden Era of South Korea-Mongolia Relations,” outlining a long-term vision for their strategic partnership.

Lee will deliver a keynote address Thursday evening at a South Korea-Mongolia business forum attended by government officials and business leaders from both countries.

The forum will focus on expanding cooperation in resources, supply chains, infrastructure and other industries.

Mongolia has significant deposits of coal, copper, rare earth elements and other minerals important to advanced manufacturing and clean-energy technologies.

South Korea, which depends heavily on imported energy and industrial resources, has sought to diversify its supply chains by expanding cooperation with Mongolia and other mineral-producing countries.

On Friday, Lee will visit a memorial honoring Lee Tae-jun, a Korean physician and independence activist who supported Mongolia’s medical development and Korea’s independence movement while living in the country in the early 20th century.

The president will then attend a luncheon with members of the Korean community in Mongolia.

Lee is also scheduled to meet Sandag Byambatsogt, speaker of Mongolia’s State Great Khural, and Prime Minister Nyam-Osor Uchral.

Khurelsukh will host a state dinner for Lee on Friday evening.

On Saturday, Lee and Khurelsukh will attend the opening ceremony of the Naadam Festival, Mongolia’s largest national celebration. Lee will attend as a guest of honor.

Naadam features traditional Mongolian wrestling, horse racing and archery and is one of the country’s most important cultural events.

Wi said the visit was expected to strengthen the strategic partnership between South Korea and Mongolia, expand practical economic cooperation and establish a closer partnership in efforts to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula.

Mongolia established diplomatic relations with North Korea in 1948, becoming the second country after the Soviet Union to recognize Pyongyang. It has maintained relations with both South and North Korea.

The presidential office said Mongolia’s traditional ties with North Korea could make it a useful diplomatic partner in efforts to reduce regional tensions and restart dialogue with Pyongyang.

“The two leaders will discuss peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula as well as practical ways to ease regional tensions and build trust,” Wi said.

“They will also explore feasible paths toward resuming dialogue with North Korea,” he said.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260703010001267

Back and forth over defence spending comes as NATO leaders set to meet in Ankara next week.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has defended his country’s NATO defence spending, shortly after US President Donald Trump re-upped his criticism of alliance members.

The statement on Friday came as NATO leaders were set to meet next week in Ankara. Trump has decried defence spending by members of the bloc throughout his political career, calling the balance of spending “ridiculous” and “one-sided” in his latest Truth Social posts on the issue earlier this week.

In one post, Trump said Germany’s spending was “MUCH ⁠LOWER” between 2014 and 2025 than the US or other NATO allies, which he again called “Ridiculous!”

When asked about the comment, Merz said Germany would double its defence budget within four years.

“This is the greatest effort we have ever made to strengthen our defence capabilities. In this respect, we have ‌no reason to shy away from anyone,” Merz said.

“We will state this, with all due modesty, and we are doing so as the European Union’s largest member state, bearing a responsibility within Europe,” he said.

US and European ties have been strained throughout Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021 and his current term, which began in January 2025.

However, while largely dismissive of the president during his first four years in office, several European leaders have sought a more amenable approach to the president this time around.

At the behest of the US, NATO leaders agreed to spend 3.5 percent of their countries’ GDP on core defence items, such as weapons and troops, ⁠by 2035, an increase of the previous goal set by the bloc of 2 percent of its GDP.

However, relations have since frayed over several issues, including Trump’s pledges to take control of the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland. Denmark is a member of NATO.

The US-Israeli war in Iran has also proven to be a major wedge, with Trump launching the conflict without consulting European allies who have dealt with the fallout of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump had repeatedly condemned European allies for not joining the war effort.

Merz, meanwhile, roiled the president by saying in April the US had been “humiliated” by Iran. Trump, in turn, said the US would withdraw 5,000 troops currently stationed in Germany.

Speaking on Friday, Merz said Germany was ahead of schedule to reach its NATO commitments.

“We will reach the 3.5 percent benchmark set in The Hague as early as 2029,” he told reporters, “well ahead of the agreed deadline”.

Plan includes more than 5 billion pounds for drones and autonomous systems over four years, Ministry of Defence says.

Outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced that Britain will spend almost 300 billion pounds ($397bn) over the next four years to modernise its armed forces amid rising threats.

Starmer, expected to leave office next month after losing the support of Labour MPs, announced on Tuesday that the overall defence budget would increase by 15 billion pounds ($20bn) over the next four years to almost 300 billion pounds as he launched his long-awaited defence investment plan.

“Last year I made the decision in the national interest to reprioritise aid spending towards defence and achieved the biggest uplift in defence spending since the end of the Cold War,” Starmer said.

“That was the right choice because the world has changed. National security is economic security.

“Today we uplift defence spending further – an additional 15 billion pounds worth of funding – by … reprioritising spending across government.”

The plan includes more than 5 billion pounds ($6.6bn) for drones and autonomous systems over the next four years, the Ministry of Defence said in a news release.

The announcement followed months of wrangling within Starmer’s Labour government over the resources required to modernise the United Kingdom’s armed forces in the face of rising threats, including from Russia.

Two defence ministers quit this month in a row over the spending proposals, including Defence Secretary John Healey, who said the plans risked making Britain “less safe”.

Starmer’s pledge came as United States President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged NATO allies to spend more on defence and become less reliant on Washington for security.

Starmer will take the plan, which foresees spending nearly 80 billion pounds ($105.7bn) a year by 2029, to Ankara for a NATO summit on July 7-8. He wants to signal Britain is on track to spend 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product on defence by 2035.

With likely successor Andy Burnham due to take power as early as July 20, Starmer acknowledged new governments could “build” on his blueprint.

Critics said the plan, delayed for more than nine months, was too little, too late.

NATO chief Mark Rutte visited the White House to ease tensions with US President Trump ahead of next month’s NATO summit. Trump has said NATO isn’t doing enough, ordering a review of US forces in Europe after saying allies did not support the US war on Iran.

One of Russia’s biggest advantages in the war against Ukraine is its ability to launch tactical airstrikes from bases largely out of reach of kinetic responses. While we have frequently reported about Ukrainian attacks on these bases, they aren’t sustained enough to stop Russia from generating devastating sorties.

Now Ukraine and NATO are looking to the private sector for ways of changing that equation through what is being called the Airfield Denial Challenge. It offers a 250,000 Euro award to companies or individuals who come up with workable ideas to prevent Russia from being able to use its air bases.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) operational experience has firmly established that the ability of the adversary to project air power from secure rear-area airfields remains one of the most consequential asymmetries in the current conflict,” according to NATO’s Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT). “Enemy tactical aviation, operating from bases beyond the reach of conventional Ukrainian strike assets, continues to conduct strikes using guided aerial bombs, cruise missiles, and stand-off munitions against friendly forces, critical infrastructure, and civilian population centers.”

The goal of this program is lofty.

“Each sortie originates from an airfield. Every airfield is a node of vulnerability: if it can be persistently denied, the adversary’s air campaign is fundamentally disrupted at source,” SACT suggested.

You can see video from one of the Ukrainian attacks on Russian tactical aviation bases below.

Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to halt these attacks are insufficient, SACT posited.

“Current workarounds: manned strike aviation, ground-based long-range fires (MLRS, ballistic missiles), and conventional single-unit loitering munitions have demonstrated limited effectiveness against defended airfield targets,” SACT argued. “They lack the mass-effect, persistence, and EW (Electronic Warfare)-resilience required to simultaneously suppress airfield infrastructure across multiple aim points in a contested environment.”

The “battlefield logic is clear,” the NATO subcommand added. “Point-defense and reactive interception of individual weapons must be complemented by persistent denial at the source.”

“We must find technologies that will help to permanently limit the enemy’s use of aviation infrastructure: aircraft, runways, fuel and ammunition storage facilities, and ground support infrastructure,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD) explained. “Ukrainian miltech companies, startups, and engineering teams are invited to participate.”

SACT said the challenge is technically agnostic and that it is looking for ideas that include, but not are not limited to, the following:

• Uncrewed aerial systems of any configuration or range class

• Autonomous or semi-autonomous munitions and loitering systems

• Swarming and mass-effect approaches

• Alternative delivery mechanisms beyond conventional aerial platforms

• Hybrid solutions combining multiple technologies

Regardless of what type of solution is presented, it “must be capable of operating in GPS-denied and EW-contested environments, across all weather conditions and seasons, and must demonstrate a credible path to rapid fielding.”

In addition, SACT is looking for systems that can conduct sustained strikes deep into contested airspace, operate without “continuous human control,” be fully autonomous and deliver “sufficient mass and precision to suppress multiple aim points across an airfield simultaneously.”

SACT also wants systems that require minimal training, and have AI-assisted target acquisition that “reduces reliance on expert judgment.”

The solicitation comes with the understanding that whatever solutions are presented won’t be proven, but should be at least in the mid-to-upper tier of the military technology readiness level (TRL) scale. It includes systems ranging from those having “high fidelity” laboratory integration of components to those with prototypes “near, or at, planned operational systems.”

Meanwhile, any solution that will take more than a year to be fielded won’t be considered.

The deadline for submissions is July 20. Ten finalists will be selected on August 11 and will be invited to a “pitch day” on Sept. 3, tentatively in Poland, to showcase their designs.

Whether this ambitious program will actually lead to the fielding of any systems that can persistently deny Russia the ability to launch aircraft is very much in question.

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has one of the world’s most innovative defense technology infrastructures that has created drones, missiles and other weapons designed, tested and fielded under intense wartime conditions. However, it has still been unable to achieve the goals being sought by this challenge. 

One of the big issues Kyiv faces is the limited amount of funds to pursue some of these advances and what the Atlantic Council has described as “Ukraine’s inability to mass produce sophisticated weapons or sustain stable military supply chains.” 

Getting an idea into the hands of NATO, which has developed a half-billion dollar fund to develop weapons for Ukraine, could ultimately help turn an idea into a workable weapon to keep Russian tactical aviation at bay. Even if that happens, though, the time it would take to develop these weapons at a scale large enough to make a real difference would be a formidable endeavor.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

France and Germany have announced this week that they are ditching a landmark project to jointly develop a sixth-generation fighter jet.

French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed on Monday that the project is being terminated, in what is being seen as a major blow to efforts to boost defence cooperation between European Union states, a key issue amid uncertainty cast by United States President Donald Trump over the readiness of the US to help defend its NATO allies.

Trump’s disdain for Europe’s reliance on the US has been building for years.

Since 2019, the US president has been flirting with the idea of obtaining Greenland.

His remarks about his desire for the island, a self-governing territory which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, built to a crescendo at the start of this year, with European leaders signalling their displeasure with the idea and Trump even threatening additional trade tariffs on those countries standing in his way.

Both Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly stated that the island is not for sale.

At one point, before Trump backed down after agreeing to a “framework of a future deal” on Greenland during a January meeting with NATO’s Mark Rutte in Davos, it seemed as if the US might even try to take the island by force – a notion that would have been inconceivable before the era of Donald Trump.

The threat of military action set off alarm bells in European capitals.

In addition to all this, Trump has withdrawn much of the US’s support for Ukraine and has consistently berated his European NATO partners for not spending enough on their own defence for years, outright urging them to reduce their reliance on the US for military protection.

More recently, Europe’s refusal to join the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began with strikes on Tehran on February 28, has further irked the US president and deepened concerns that a widening transatlantic rift could weaken the continent’s security and embolden Russia.

Until this week, a counterweight to these burgeoning concerns was in hand – the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) project, a landmark pact to jointly develop a next-generation fighter jet involving France, Germany and Spain.

But disagreements over whether France’s Dassault Aviation, or Airbus, which also represents Germany and Spain, should take the lead on the project have ultimately led to its collapse.

Analysts, however, say all hope is not lost: despite the dissolution of the bellwether venture, Europeans can indeed become strategically autonomous, they say – but the road there runs through shared military integration, rather than shared political aspiration.

The FCAS hoopla does “highlight the limitation of Europe’s defence industrial landscape, where national needs sometimes clash with the broader goal of defence integration”, Giuseppe Spatafora, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“But we also shouldn’t overestimate its impact.”

Setback, not collapse

According to Jamie Shea, a retired NATO official and associate fellow with the International Security Programme at Chatham House, FCAS’s dissolution is certainly a setback – but does not spell the collapse of European defence integration in its entirety.

“It was the type of high-tech, innovative and future-oriented programme that Europeans need to be able to achieve successfully if they are to become strategically autonomous and break their dependence on the US for major weapons systems,” Shea told Al Jazeera.

It had been hoped that FCAS would move the needle forward, particularly in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI), space, data fusion, and the manned and autonomous systems interface space, he said.

Others would have additionally joined the project as it gained momentum, as Spain did, he added, potentially creating a domino effect in next-generation defence technologies across the continent.

But, crucially, Spatafora said, the project dates back to 2017 – a different era, before Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine and before Trump’s return to the White House.

“Nowadays, the project might be designed differently to reflect the scenario,” he said.

“But it doesn’t affect the broader trend in Europe towards reducing dependencies on US military systems and strengthening its own defence capabilities.”

France and Germany will continue with some components of FCAS, such as its “combat cloud” feature, which will increase Europe’s cyber command-and-control capabilities, said Spatafora.

Airbus and a number of other German companies are also seeking to continue the programme in other areas, particularly software architecture and drone technology, Shea said.

“So there may be benefits for European defence and its defence technology base even if a manned fighter aircraft is not built,” said Shea.

Furthermore, there are “scores” of other joint defence projects being launched in Europe at the moment, even if they are not quite as ambitious as FCAS, he added.

Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at the European think tank Bruegel, similarly urged against alarmism.

“I would not interpret this decision overly negatively,” Wolff told Al Jazeera.

“FCAS was a very complicated project and its military relevance may well be overstated at a moment of increasing importance of cheap autonomous systems. In part, the decision also reflects a reassessment of whether the high cost was really warranted.”

Europe, meanwhile, has other strengths it can build on, the analysts said.

The continent is strong in shipbuilding, submarines, short-range missiles and air defence – with systems like the German IRIS-T and the French-Italian SAMP/T – and has demonstrated it can build capable fighter jets, such as the Eurofighter Typhoon, Tornado and Gripen programmes have shown, Shea said.

Lessons and challenges

Europe’s main problem is underinvestment and the difficulty it has in scaling up to the level of mass production that modern warfare demands, said Shea.

This issue was brought into sharp focus this week when the UK’s secretary of state for defence dramatically resigned from government over defence funding.

He simply cannot keep the country safe on what he has been given to spend, he said. In his resignation letter to the prime minister, he wrote: “You have been unable and the Treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats,” he wrote.

Ultimately, European nations are going to have to come together if they have any hope of matching US military might in the future, analysts say.

“It is the challenge of integrating all systems and all domains into a single battlefield management space where the US is in advance of the Europeans,” Shea said.

“Drones, which Russia and Ukraine are producing in the millions, are a case in point. Even the US suffers from weapons shortages as we have seen in the Iran war,” the former NATO official added.

Spatafora echoed the idea that the Russia-Ukraine war has lessons to offer the rest of Europe.

“The lesson of the war in Ukraine is that, in order to deter and defend itself properly, Europe needs cheap, mass-produced capabilities,” he said.

FCAS was about a very expensive capability, “so it was not really the key need for Europe’s deterrence today”, the analyst said.

The more pressing question that FCAS raises is how European nations will coordinate large projects which single countries cannot produce on their own and which could clash with the interests of numerous national industries. This is the conundrum which will likely shape the design of future EU instruments to support cooperative defence projects, said Spatafora.

Another challenge facing the continent is that major platforms like aircraft, ships or land warfare vehicles can take decades to develop, and contracts signed today will yield equipment that will not be on the battlefield before 2040, Shea said.

Europe will need to upgrade its current capabilities – recent upgrades to the Eurofighter jet and the Leopard tank are examples he cited – and look for gap-fillers elsewhere.

Spatafora argues that the FCAS collapse should not push European countries back towards reliance on American systems – or at least not more than they already have.

“The Trump administration’s approach and the depletion of stock after the Iran war have significantly reduced the reliability of US supplies,” he said.

The reliability of US guarantees, he added, depends on other assets – long-range missiles, forward-deployed troops, command-and-control infrastructure – “rather than on a next-generation fighter jet”, the analyst added.

‘Military requirements’ over ‘political ambition’

The FCAS failure is certainly good news for Russia, Shea said, “and also for the US, which will hope to sell Europe even more F-35s and maintain Europe’s traditional dependency on US military equipment”.

A rebound from the collapsed project, therefore, he argued, is necessary. But that is already in the works, analysts say, as Europe is already turning away from US dependability.

They point to the high likelihood of renewed interest in the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) for a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet, in European Space Agency military space capabilities, and in EU defence financing mechanisms like the Security Action for Europe (SAFE).

Joint ventures with Ukraine, which, under fire from Russia for four years, has mastered mass production of drone technology and AI, should also help keep Europe up to speed in key areas, Shea added.

“The US has proven to be unreliable, or simply unable to remain committed to Europe, and the defence budgets are growing,” Spatfora said.

Washington will continue to remain relevant for certain capabilities – nuclear deterrence above all – but over time, European countries will seek to develop more and more on their own.

The ultimate lesson of FCAS, however, Shea argued, is that defence integration “has to be driven by military requirements rather than political ambition”.

Cooperation between France and Germany has always been difficult, he said – they have large defence companies “that do not want to play second fiddle to the other”, he said.

A more promising model, he said, is the joint UK-Norway agreement to produce a new destroyer-class warship, with BAE Systems as the main contractor and smaller Norwegian companies participating.

“Both countries operate in the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea and share exactly the same concept of what the ship should be,” explained Shea.

“So it is this model of bottom-up, natural cooperation rather than top-down political cooperation that Europe needs to pursue.”

• Population: 1.37 million
• Defence spending: 5.4 percent of GDP
• Border with Russia: 338km (210 miles)

Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic states, has experienced some dramatic incidents.

In September, Tallinn said Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace for 12 minutes. NATO scrambled Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission. Russia denied violating Estonian airspace.

In March, a stray Ukrainian military drone crashed into Estonia’s Auvere power station.

In April and May, Estonian authorities said drones entered their airspace, grounding flights and prompting warnings issued to citizens.

Estonia’s intelligence services have said that the country does not believe Russia is preparing an imminent military attack on NATO, but that Moscow may be rebuilding its forces for the long term while engaging in hybrid attacks through drones, cyber operations, and sabotage.

Tallinn claims one such hybrid method is the so-called “Narva People’s Republic”, a pro-Russian separatist narrative that casts Estonia’s Russian-speaking border region as a distinct political entity, echoing the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” used by Moscow as a pretext for intervention in Ukraine.

Estonian authorities say it is part of a disinformation campaign rather than a credible separatist movement.

Its military has, at times, been bellicose in its statements.

In May, Estonia’s Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo argued that Russia is rebuilding its military much faster than many Europeans realise and that Estonia must be ready for a renewed military threat within the next few years, marking 2027 as a critical benchmark for readiness.

In September 2024, in an interview with the Estonian public broadcaster ERR, Estonian General Vahur Karus stated that if Moscow showed signs of preparing for an attack, Estonia could strike the Russians first.

“Our capability to neutralise the enemy on its own territory is crucial,” he said.

However, the government’s rhetoric has been more measured.

In April, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy suggested in an interview that a new wave of Russian mobilisation may be used to launch an attack on the Baltic states.

But Estonian politicians, including the foreign minister, warned that the remarks echoed Moscow’s objective of stoking fears and made cooperation difficult.

“We do not see Russia concentrating its forces or preparing in any way militarily to attack NATO or the Baltic states; rather, it is the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, and economically as well,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR.

“No one is in the streets panicking,” Tony Lawrence, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, told Al Jazeera.

The air incursions have “put people on edge”, but there is a sense that Russian forces are too preoccupied in Ukraine, he said.

The drone entered Latvian airspace due to ‘Russian electronic warfare’, the military says.

NATO fighters have scrambled to shoot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

The Latvian military said on Monday that French aircraft had destroyed “a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle that had entered Latvian airspace as a result of Russian electronic warfare”, without saying where the drone originated.

The incident adds a growing list of incursions from the Russia-Ukraine war into neighbouring countries that are part of the NATO alliance, sparking fears of escalating spillover effects as Moscow’s siege on Ukraine continues apace.

“Thank you to our French allies for shooting down the drone that penetrated Latvian airspace!” Riga’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braze wrote on social media.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs heralded the “swift decision-making and professional action”.

Defence Minister Raivis Melnis told reporters the drone was shot down just after 9am local time (07:00 GMT) near the village of Berzgale, located about 30km (18 miles) from the Russian border. No one was hurt, and no property was damaged, Melnis said.

The French military said in a statement that the jets took off from Siauliai airbase in northern Lithuania and destroyed the drone “over an uninhabited area”.

It added that the incident demonstrated France’s “commitment to contributing to the security of Europe’s eastern flank”.

Authorities had previously warned residents in some parts of eastern Latvia to shelter in place because of the threat.

Ongoing threat

Countries in the region have reported repeated drone incursions from air and sea in recent months, spawning concerns over the widening impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The issue has raised the political pressure in Latvia, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Evika Silina last month.

The increased frequency of the reports comes as Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russia, with Moscow deflecting drones using electronic jamming. The statement from the Latvian military regarding “Russian electronic warfare” appears to suggest the drone shot down likely came from Ukraine.

Fragments of a Ukrainian drone were also found in a field in Moldova on Monday after it entered from Ukraine, an incident that officials also blamed on Moscow.

Last week, a maritime drone exploded in Romania’s Constanta port. Kyiv later confirmed it involved a Ukrainian drone that was knocked off course by Russian electronic interference.

However, it was a Russian drone that hit an apartment building in eastern Romania in late May, injuring two people and prompting Bucharest to call for NATO to speed up the transfer of anti-drone capabilities.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned after that crash that Russia’s war on Ukraine is “increasingly becoming a direct threat to countries on our Eastern border” and said solidarity with them was “absolute”.

The French military jet that shot down Monday’s drone is part of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, which has patrolled the skies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia since they became part of NATO in 2004.