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Private Credit Crash Fears Are Overstated

Despite investor fears, private credit is far from a meltdown because not all risks are the same.

The cracks in the private credit market appear to be widening.

Private credit is a significant alternative to syndicated bank loans as a source of corporate capital provided predominantly by private equity (PE) firms. The market is heavily involved in financing data center capacity, which is burgeoning along with the demand for artificial intelligence. Investors fear that the artificial intelligence capital spending boom poses a threat to the software industry and may be creating a market bubble that leaves private credit funds overly exposed.

Yet there are reasons to believe the potential damage to the private credit market remains manageable and contained.

This article appears in the May 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine. .

To be sure, when auto parts seller First Brands announced its bankruptcy late last year, which was financed by a credit fund sponsored by investment bank Jefferies Group, it raised alarms in some quarters. Underscoring the opacity of private credit, which is largely unregulated, were allegations that First Brands had borrowed against the same receivables more than once. Meanwhile, defaults elsewhere in the credit sector hit a record high in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings, reaching a 9.2% rate, more than double the 3.6% recorded in 2023. Default rates this January continued upward, reaching 9.4% before slightly easing in February to 5.4%.

As the First Brands financing reveals, banks as well as PE firms are involved in private credit, either by financing investment funds sponsored by Ares Capital, Antares, Apollo, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and the like, or via funds of their own. With pension funds, insurance companies, and increasingly, individuals investing in private credit, law firm Quinn Emanuel warned in a March client memo that the trend may pose systemic risk, even though private credit is still a relatively small part of the overall loan market.

“The result is a transmission chain that runs from the technology companies, through private credit originators, to the regulated banks that lend to them, to the insurers and pension funds that invest alongside them, and potentially to the retirement accounts of ordinary Americans,” the memo’s authors warned.

Only a minority of small corporate borrowers are in trouble, and companies with EBITDA of $25 million or less experienced significantly higher default rates—15.8%—than larger companies in 2025. Healthcare and consumer companies have higher default rates. Fitch also notes that realized losses for first-lien lenders have been limited, with most cases resulting in full or high-percentage recoveries.

Notably, private credit default rates historically tend to run higher than those on broadly syndicated loans, a trend some observers attribute to more customized, and sometimes distressed, lending terms. The January uptick was largely driven by “distressed” exchanges and payment-in-kind (PIK) interest, according to Fitch.

AI Anxieties

Alen Lin, Fitch Ratings, Private Credit Analysis
Alen Lin, Fitch Ratings

Concerns are growing about PE funds exposed to software. Investors worry that AI will disrupt the software industry, leading to defaults within portfolios of private-credit loans to the sector. But most such funds are diversified, and even those that aren’t may not be as vulnerable to disruption by AI as investors fear. That’s because the large language models underpinning AI require application program interfaces to operate, so software may still be needed to facilitate the technology’s use.

“Implementing AI still requires significant effort to get it to work in a particular environment,” Alen Lin, senior director of North America corporates, technology, at Fitch Ratings, told audiences at a recent webinar held by the firm.

Of course, much depends on the type of application involved. As Fitch notes, companies producing software that is either deeply embedded in enterprise technology systems, leverages proprietary data, or operates in more regulated industries like health care and financial services could benefit from the development of AI. By contrast, those producing software for applications that aren’t so embedded, such as digital content creation or certain types of analytics and visualization tools, are more exposed to AI disruption.

Even if the AI bubble bursts, that risk is unlikely to evaporate, Lyle Margolis, senior director in Fitch’s corporates group, where he manages its private credit business, said in an interview with Global Finance. “AI is here to stay and is going to be disruptive to certain segments of the software market,” he says.

Yet the risks may be overstated. Whether measured by leverage, interest coverage, or EBITDA, “the trends in the software sector have actually been somewhat positive,” he noted. Refinancing risk for the sector is relatively benign. And data-center build-out provides one of several “significant tailwinds” for private credit in the software sector, added Dafina Dunmore, Fitch’s senior director of North American non-bank financial institutions.

Another mitigating factor: Redemption risk, which can see large outflows of capital. However, it is limited largely to business development companies (BDCs), a more liquid, retail-oriented variety of private-credit investment vehicle. Blue Owl, for example, recently blocked redemptions at one of its BDCs and liquidated some others. And the $33 billion Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund, the largest US private-credit interval received redemption requests on 14%.

Although defaults are rising for these portfolios, redemption risk isn’t a problem for most credit funds, because investors are locked in until maturity. In addition, stress is concentrated in direct lending: corporate loans that fund working capital and growth.

Hidden Risks

To be sure, many such risks may be hidden, given private credit’s opacity. Blue Owl’s exposure to software loans, among the highest in the industry, is roughly twice as extensive as its public filings indicate, according to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal. The paper also found other PE firms whose credit funds exhibit software exposure exceeding what’s publicly disclosed include Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo.

Investor worries may exacerbate Blue Owl’s redemption woes since its data center financing deals involve accounting practices that obscure the risk involved. The main source of concern is likely Blue Owl’s $27.3 billion financing of Meta’s Hyperion data center in Louisiana.

Yet, S&P rates the bond backing the deal, called Beignet, as Meta’s obligation, reflecting that it bears the risk of default. Indeed, investors seem to like that cash-rich Meta stands behind Beignet. The bond was recently spread over a bond financing the CoreWeave data center, which isn’t backed by the hyperscaler.

Still, some wonder if the risks are adequately priced into these issues.

Quinn Emanuel warns that the vagaries of Meta’s accounting treatment may lead to litigation between the parties over who bears the loss if AI fails to meet expectations and Meta chooses not to renew the lease. Blue Owl finances an Oracle data center in similar fashion, but that bond is trading at a discount to Meta’s, partly because Oracle doesn’t back it and partly because the ultimate tenant is less financially stable OpenAI.

“When we rate data centers, to some extent we look at the credit quality of the ultimate tenant,” says Victor Leung, vice president for project finance at ratings firm DBRS Morningstar.

This type of complexity led Quinn Emanuel to warn in its March 13 memo that, “the AI data center buildout—projected to require $5.2 trillion in infrastructure investment by decade’s end—has spawned complex financing structures that are generating significant litigation risk.”

Mark Koziel, CEO of the International Association of International Certified Professional Accountants and president-CEO of the American Institute of CPAs, says he would raise the issue of current accounting rules for such financing arrangements at an upcoming meeting with the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Also last month, the US Department of the Treasury said it would meet with industry and investor representatives to discuss private credit’s potential risk to the financial system.

Thus far, warnings of a private credit meltdown seem overstated.

Credit funds focused on asset-backed finance (ABF), which is based on the value of a borrower’s assets and is the fastest-growing sector in the market, are relatively immune to stress, thanks to their self-liquidating feature. In contrast to direct loans, principal on asset-backed financings is paid back during the life of the loan. As a result, ABF funds don’t face the same refinancing risk as direct lenders.

Sponsors of direct lending funds “don’t have the benefit of those cash flows directed to pay down the loans,” notes Fitch’s Margolies.

Apart from First Brands’ receivables deal with Jefferies, the ABF segment has yet to be fully tested. But a test may soon be underway: Beignet is also asset-backed. Or sort of.

Debt principal remains outstanding at each renewal point, so it isn’t completely self-amortizing. As a result, DBRS Morningstar’s Leung notes, “you face a risk that your facility will lose its source of revenue.” Hence, Meta’s guarantee that it will make up any loss facing investors if it fails to renew the lease and the facility’s residual value falls below a certain threshold.

That scenario is not far-fetched, Quinn Emanuel warns, noting that it’s expensive to convert an AI data center to general-purpose cloud computing or other uses: “If demand for AI computing contracts, these facilities may function as stranded assets with limited alternative use and depressed liquidation value.”   

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Europe Vies To Close Stablecoin Gap

France pushes euro stablecoins and tokenized deposits as EU banks race to close the gap with dollar-led digital payments.

France is pressing European banks to accelerate the development of euro-denominated stablecoins, as policymakers grow concerned that the region might fall further behind the U.S. in the shift toward digital payments and tokenized finance.

Recently, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure publicly called for more euro-based stablecoins and urged banks to explore tokenized deposits, saying the limited circulation of euro-pegged tokens compared with dollar-backed alternatives was “not satisfactory,” during a pre-recorded address to a crypto industry conference.

Meanwhile, a consortium of European banks, called Qivalis, plans to launch a more competitive alternative to dollar-pegged stablecoins in the second half of this year, subject to approval from the Dutch central bank.

Qivalis, which includes banks like ING, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, was formally unveiled in December and has received continued praise from European authorities. Referring to the initiative, Lescure said, “That is what we need, and that is what we want.” At the same time, he strongly encouraged banks to further explore launching tokenized deposits.

Enter Fireblocks

Late in April, the consortium selected Fireblocks as the technology provider for its planned MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin, a step that provides it with the tokenization, wallet, and settlement infrastructure needed to move the project from planning to a planned launch in the second half of 2026.

Around the same time, Societe Generale’s digital assets unit, SG-Forge, said it was expanding its crypto client base to 15 firms, including exchanges, brokers, and wallet providers, showing that bank-linked activity is growing but remains small.

Stablecoins are already widely used in crypto trading and are increasingly being explored for settlement, cross-border payments, and liquidity management, but the market remains overwhelmingly dollar-based as industry participants debate whether euro-pegged coins face demand or regulatory constraints.

Recent research from RBC Capital Markets found that two-thirds of European banks surveyed still view demand for euro-pegged stablecoins as limited. Conversely, Jean-Marc Stenger, CEO of SG-Forge, has argued that a better-regulated infrastructure remains a key condition for broader adoption.

“[There is] a very, very strong need for well-regulated, robust offering in the crypto and stablecoin space,” he said in an interview with Reuters.

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Delcy’s Fragile Reopening Meets the Old Power Crisis

When US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Venezuela in February, he left Miraflores with an ambitious message. After meeting Delcy Rodríguez in Miraflores, he told reporters: “This year, we can drive a dramatic increase in Venezuelan oil production, in Venezuelan natural gas production and Venezuelan electricity production.”

Three months later, large parts of the country are enduring heavy electricity rationing, with daily cuts lasting between five and eight hours. Even after the government imposed a 45-day electricity-saving plan in late March to cope with high temperatures and surging demand, the situation continues to deteriorate. As the system faces renewed strain, the US Embassy in Caracas publicized a meeting with Ronald Alcalá, Delcy’s new electric energy minister, where US Chief of Mission John Barrett said Washington will “work with the interim authorities to rebuild the power grid.”

“The three-phase plan of President Trump and Secretary Rubio focuses on restoring reliable energy supply through experience, investment, and collaboration with the US,” Barrett’s brief statement read.

Caracas has resorted to nationwide measures like banning cryptocurrency mining, as power consumption recently reached its highest levels in nearly a decade. El Pitazo reported that current nationwide rationing has exceeded those seen in 2012 across much of the country, with Caracas remaining the main exception.

The latest chapter of this long-running crisis arrives at a sensitive moment for the post-Maduro regime. As has been widely reported, Rodríguez is trying to boost some parts of the economy and attract foreign investment into oil, gas and mining. But the country’s electrical system—weakened by decades of underinvestment, mismanagement and institutional collapse—has re-emerged as an obstacle.

For Luisa Palacios, a Venezuelan professor and energy executive that served as CITGO’s chairwoman, the current blackout cycle reveals something deeper than previous ones.

“This new episode should serve as a wake-up call about the urgency of restructuring the country’s electrical system,” she says. “We are witnessing a stress test of the system even under a modest recovery in demand.

One huge challenge is to bring back investment and expertise required, Palacios wrote in February along with Francisco Morandi, an AES Corporation executive who did strategic planning for Electricidad de Caracas. However, some major companies are hesitating to join after meetings with officials last month, Reuters reported. One executive shared his view: “I returned very skeptical from Venezuela (…) The power plants have not been properly repaired in 10 years, so the needs are almost infinite. But they still have no clue on how we would get paid.”

“The electricity sector is a highly capital-intensive sector that requires large investments to be made before a single cent of profit is seen,” Palacios told Caracas Chronicles. “That is why counterparty risk is fundamental in the electricity sector: ensuring that the user pays you, and on time, is essential.”

The most immediate problem is straightforward. Except for Haiti, Venezuela is the only country in the region where power consumption has actually declined over the past decade, according to OLADE, with per capita consumption falling by roughly 30% since 2014. Nevertheless, the country still does not generate enough electricity to meet demand.

Palacios was firm in the idea that it is necessary to move beyond the State’s central role in power generation, which can’t afford the necessary investments, and that the time to do so is now. 

“Without increasing power generation offered significantly by the private sector and improving transmission and distribution, the country won’t recover from the structural electric crisis that today remains the main bottleneck in terms of infrastructure”.

One of the central proposals advanced by Palacios and other energy experts is to restore thermal generation using Venezuela’s own natural gas resources. Large volumes of gas currently burned or flared during oil production could instead feed thermal plants and combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) facilities, systems that generate electricity more efficiently by combining gas and steam turbines. Such a shift would not only reduce pressure on the hydroelectric system but also lower emissions associated with gas flaring.

“This could be the single biggest climate action Venezuela could take in the short term,” Palacios argues. 

Other proposals involve allowing independent power producers to generate electricity for specific industrial regions and oil hubs, reducing pressure on the fragile national grid. She has also suggested the creation of autonomous microgrids operating in “island mode” (localized systems capable of functioning independently when the national grid fails) to provide more reliable service to critical industrial, commercial, and residential areas. Battery storage systems could also help stabilize electricity supply.

Renewable energy is also part of the conversation. Venezuela relies on largely clean, hydroelectric energy, but Palacios sees potential for solar, wind and biofuel projects. Other oil-producing neighbors like Brazil, Colombia and Argentina serve as prime examples in that sense.

The challenge is not just technical. Broadly speaking, there is agreement among specialists about what Venezuela’s electrical system needs, and what requires fixing: new thermal generation, modernization of transmission infrastructure, decentralized generation capacity, tariff reform, and a new regulatory framework capable of attracting investment. The financing problem is huge: rebuilding Venezuela’s grid would require enormous amounts of long-term capital. Gelvis Sequera, who chairs the domestic Association of Electrical and Mechanical Engineers, places the required investment at around $20 billion.

“The electricity sector is a highly capital-intensive sector that requires large investments to be made before a single cent of profit is seen,” Palacios told Caracas Chronicles. “That is why counterparty risk is fundamental in the electricity sector: ensuring that the user pays you, and on time, is essential.”

But many investors remain cautious. According to Reuters, several companies that recently held meetings with Venezuelan officials left unconvinced about the prospects of doing business. One executive summarized the dilemma bluntly: “The power plants have not been properly repaired in 10 years, so the needs are almost infinite. But they still have no clue how we would get paid.”

The vicious cycle of regional power cuts affecting refineries and fuel production, and therefore also undermining the power sector, needs a major overhaul to finally be brought to an end.

When considering whether to deploy capital in Venezuela, investors are less confused about the needs and more about the ifs. They are uncertain about whether the Venezuelan State can offer credible guarantees, stable regulation, enforceable contracts, and reliable payment mechanisms over the long term.

As Palacios put it: “Power infrastructure is a low-margin business, established for the long term and highly dependent on regulatory and macroeconomic risks.” For that reason, she argues that regulatory clarity, transparent tariffs, and technically competent institutions are indispensable if Venezuela hopes to attract serious capital into the sector.

This also raises uncomfortable political questions about the future role of CORPOELEC, the omnipotent overseer of Venezuelan electricity. Founded by Hugo Chávez in 2007, the public company serves as the power grid’s service provider, operator and developer.

“Venezuela needs to seriously rethink the role of CORPOELEC and the State in providing such a fundamental service,” Palacios says. “It is not possible to solve this crisis with the current management structure.” At the moment, however, there are few signs that such reforms are imminent.

“To build and rebuild a reliable system will depend on having the right actors on the table”, she continues, pointing out that multilateral organizations can provide technical capacity and long-term financing that can “de-risk investment”, giving some assurances to the private sector.

“There’s a lot of Venezuelan entrepreneurship more than willing to invest in a system with clear rules based on international standards”.For now, as hopes of an economic recovery reach their highest levels since the Chávez era, Venezuelans long accustomed to blackouts are desperate to avoid a repeat of the worst 2019-esque scenarios. The contradiction is also acute for Delcy Rodríguez, whose critical infrastructure problem is one of the most immediate constraints on the reopening she is attempting. The vicious cycle of regional power cuts affecting refineries and fuel production, and therefore also undermining the power sector, needs a major overhaul to finally be brought to an end.

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U.S. Antimony targets $125M 2026 revenue while planning 1,000 tons per month 99.9% hydromet output in 2028 (NYSE:UAMY)

Earnings Call Insights: United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) Q1 2026

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  • CEO Gary Evans said, “This is no longer just an antimony company” and pointed investors to a portfolio spanning “antimony, cobalt, gold, tungsten, and zeolite,” alongside ramping processing capacity and government-linked demand.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclaimer: This article was automatically generated by an AI tool based on content available on the Seeking Alpha website, and has not been curated or reviewed by humans. Due to inherent limitations in using AI-based tools, the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of such articles cannot be guaranteed. This article is intended for informational purposes only. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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IMF Won’t Participate in Venezuela Debt Restructuring

The IMF resumed Venezuela ties after a six-year freeze, focusing on data rather than debt relief.

After announcing its resumption of its dealings with Venezuela under acting president Delcy Rodriguez on April 14, the International Monetary Fund plans to take a wait-and-see approach to the Latin American country’s plans to restructure its reported $170 billion in external debt.

The IMF and World Bank halted deals with Venezuela in 2019, citing the government’s failure to provide mandatory economic data and disputing the legitimacy of President Nicolás Maduro’s administration. Venezuela’s reintegration into the global financial system is now underway. The U.S. is helping to facilitate the change following the removal of Maduro in January by U.S. forces, with Vice President Rodriguez as interim leader.

“Restoring fiscal and debt sustainability is obviously a very important priority for Venezuela, and we do stand ready to support the authorities in this very important step that they’re taking,” said Julie Kozack, an IMF spokesperson, during a press briefing. “Typically, when a country chooses to restructure its debt, the discussions are between the country’s authorities and their creditors. The Fund does not participate in those discussions.”

Resuming Business as Usual

The IMF has started regular discussions with the Ministry of Finance and the Banco Central de Venezuela.

“These discussions have focused mostly on the production and provision of economic data,” Kozack said. “Providing and producing this economic data is a requirement under our articles of agreement so that we can assess the macroeconomic developments and provide policy advice ultimately to Venezuela.”

Since the Latin American country resumed work with the IMF, it regained access to its special drawing rights, but the nation has not requested financing from the IMF, said Kozak. “Any financing would require a formal request from the authorities.”

Reaching Debt Sustainability

In the meantime, the Venezuelan government expects to release a macroeconomic framework and debt analysis to the international financial community in June, said the office of the Vice Presidency for Economy in a prepared statement.

“The current debt overhang constrains external financing, limits public investment capacity, and prevents full re-engagement with the international financial system,” wrote the statement’s authors. “It needs to be substantially reduced for Venezuela to engage in a virtuous circle.”

The government plans to normalize the government’s and state oil company PDVSA’s outstanding commercial debt to restore public debt sustainability.

Nic Wirtz contributed to this story

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A former Becerra aide pleaded guilty in a fraud case. I still have questions

Dana Williamson, one of the political heavyweights at the center of a financial scandal involving gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, looked shell-shocked Thursday morning in a federal courtroom in downtown Sacramento, as most folks do when bad choices collide with the hard realities of the justice system.

A thousand-yard stare in her eyes, Williamson responded “guilty” three times in a voice that required a microphone to be heard as the judge walked her through a plea deal reached days before with the U.S. Department of Justice. She likely won’t be sentenced until fall (possibly close to the general election) but will — again, just a likely here — at best face home confinement and at worst upward of three years in prison.

It’s a colossal fall for a woman who wasn’t so much a consultant as a political operative to Becerra, Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Gov. Jerry Brown and a slew of companies including Meta and PG&E. She was known at the Capitol as a woman who got things done, sometimes with finesse, sometimes not.

It was her savvy and ability to deliver whatever was needed through her deep connections and knowledge of the complicated structures — official and cultural — that govern the California halls of power that make her predicament all the more confounding. Especially because, far from stealing money for self-enrichment, she actually paid money to be part of this scheme.

That alone, to me, raises questions.

Though Williamson’s guilty plea may seem like an ending to the saga, it shouldn’t be, because there’s still a lot lurking in the dark corners of this deal.

If Becerra makes it past the primary, which seems (I’ll use that word again) likely, voters have a right to know.

Here’s the simple backstory, according to court documents. Becerra’s close aide, Sean McCluskie, took a pay cut to remain with his boss when he moved to Washington to become President Biden’s secretary of Health and Human Services.

Strapped for cash, McCluskie asked Williamson to receive money from Becerra’s dormant campaign account — which Becerra was legally not allowed to manage while holding federal office — and pass it through a bunch of other accounts before giving it to McCluskie’s wife as payment for a nonexistent job.

Williamson’s attorney, McGregor Scott, said Thursday that Williamson received $7,500 each month from the Becerra account and added $2,500 from her own funds before sending it on to ultimately reach McCluskie — for a total of $10,000 a month.

McCluskie was “living on a government salary,” Scott said Thursday after court. “Wife is home with the kids. They didn’t have enough money, and that’s where this all originated. [Williamson] was simply trying to help a friend in a pinch as best she could.”

Scott, a former Bush and Trump United States attorney, managed to get Williamson’s original 23-count indictment knocked down to the Becerra account issue, along with lying to the FBI and filing a false tax return.

McCluskie entered his own guilty plea in the case last November and is scheduled to be sentenced, along with the third lobbyist, in June.

Becerra, who is a slim-margin front-runner for governor, was the victim in this case — or more precisely, his state campaign bank account was, according to court documents.

There has never been any indication that Becerra was investigated as a participant, and he has forcefully denied wrongdoing, calling it a “gut punch” that his advisers allegedly betrayed him.

That, of course, hasn’t stopped the other candidates from using the case against him.

“My opponents have spent millions spreading lies to purposefully mislead voters,” he wrote Thursday on social media. “Today confirms what I have said from day one: I did nothing wrong. Case closed.”

Meanwhile, Scott, the attorney, also said Thursday that Williamson assumed, based on her conversations with McCluskie, that McCluskie had spoken to Becerra about the concept of the money transfer. Text messages in court records show a brief and ambiguous exchange between McCluskie and Williamson that backs that up.

Scott said that Williamson never spoke directly with Becerra about the scheme.

That leaves the distinct possibility that Williamson believed Becerra knew what was happening — but never asked him. Dumb? Maybe. But Williamson isn’t usually dumb.

“The understanding that McCluskie conveyed to my client was it was OK to proceed,” Scott said.

Becerra has repeatedly said he believed the $10,000 a month was a legitimate fee being paid to manage the funds in the dormant account while he could not — though that is an amount above what is usual for such work, as my colleague Dakota Smith has reported.

Becerra has also repeatedly used some variation of the “case closed” line, seemingly hoping to move past this scandal without further answers.

But at the very least, it deserves some kind of mea culpa from Becerra or lessons learned, a more robust conversation than the brush-off it’s been getting. Because either McCluskie is one heck of a con man who rolled both Becerra and Williamson, making both believe what was happening was kosher with entirely different tales, or someone isn’t being entirely honest.

Did Becerra never question why an account with almost no activity was costing so much to manage? Did he never wonder what Williamson was doing to earn all that money? Should he, with his decades of legal and political experience, have seen red flags, even with a trusted adviser? Or is Williamson, facing sentencing, just trying to paint herself in a sympathetic light?

“I’m not trying to paint my client as a victim,” McGregor said. “She’s accepted responsibility today for what she did by pleading guilty. She’s now a felon. So you know, we’re not trying to do anything to dance away from that.”

Williamson may be done dancing, but the music’s still playing, and the fancy footwork of politics continues.

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Fed rate hikes could be coming, making bank stocks attractive – Regan Capital CIO (KBE:NYSEARCA)

May 14, 2026, 3:29 PM ETState Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE), KBWB, FTXO, , , , , , , , By: Max Gottlich, SA News Editor

Bank building

ultramarine5/iStock via Getty Images

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s public expectations that incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will cut interest rates, one investment expert believes the central bank may actually be forced to move in the opposite direction.

Skyler Weinand, Chief Investment Officer at

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Mobix Labs bull run: 90% surge on defense & critical minerals re-rating

Mobix Labs (MOBX) stock jumped nearly 90% to around $3.24 on Thursday, pushing its monthly gain to about 65%. The stock is now up 41.04% YTD, beating the S&P 500 (SP500) return of 8.75%.

The rally started after Mobix Labs announced

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Becerra’s consultant to plead guilty to skimming campaign funds

A veteran California political consultant has agreed to plead guilty in a scheme to steal campaign funds from Xavier Becerra, now a leading candidate for governor, when he served in the Biden administration, according to filings in her criminal case on Thursday.

Dana Williamson will plead guilty to three counts, including bank fraud and lying to authorities. In exchange, the federal government will dismiss 20 other counts against her related to her tax filings and a federal COVID-era loan she received.

A court hearing is scheduled Thursday morning.

Williamson, a former chief of staff to Gov. Gavin Newsom, was arrested in November and pleaded not guilty. The government secured guilty pleas in December from two advisors who worked with alongside her to skim money from Becerra.

The case against her and a looming plea deal have taken center stage in the California governor’s race as rivals seek to tie the charges to Becerra, who is a Democratic front runner. He hasn’t been charged, and prosecutors paint him as a victim.

Prosecutors say that Williamson, Becerra’s then-chief of staff Sean McCluskie and lobbyist Greg Campbell took part in a scheme to siphon money from Becerra’s dormant campaign account and funnel it to McCluskie.

McCluskie needed the money, according to prosecutors, so he could afford to fly home frequently to see his family in California while working for Becerra, who was Biden’s health secretary, in Washington, D.C.

As part of the scheme, Williamson and another consultant charged Becerra’s account up to $10,000 a month to manage one of his dormant state campaign accounts.

Becerra approved the payments, even though he had never paid such a high amount for a similar job. He told The Times that McCluskie told him to pay the fees.

Becerra’s rivals in the governor’s race are hammering him over his decision, arguing he should have known something wasn’t right. Becerra has said that he didn’t know about the criminal behavior and has called the charges a “gut punch.”

Known as an hard-nosed and aggressive operator, Williamson’s career in politics also included working for former governors Jerry Brown and Gray Davis and mentoring other women.

McGregor Scott, Williamson’s attorney, told reporters last year that federal authorities initially approached Williamson about helping them with a probe into Newsom. She refused, he said, and was subsequently charged.

Details contained in the indictment and other public records suggest that federal authorities were looking into the state’s handling of alleged sexual harassment at Activision Blizzard Inc., a video game company.

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US 30-year bond yield tops 5% as Kevin Warsh takes Fed helm and inflation rises

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Long-term US borrowing costs climbed to levels not seen since before the global financial crisis after the Treasury auctioned $25bn (€21.3bn) in 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.058% on Wednesday, according to the department’s own data.


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The sale came only hours after the US Senate voted to confirm former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman, succeeding Jerome Powell.

The auction result immediately complicated the backdrop for Warsh’s arrival at the central bank, underlining the pressure facing policymakers as inflation is rising.

At the time of writing on Thursday, US 30-year bonds are trading at 5.02% while 10-year notes are selling with a yield of 4.44%.

US inflation figures released earlier this week showed consumer prices rose 3.8% from April 2025 as the 10-week Iran war pushed energy costs higher and distanced inflation from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Producer price data also pointed to persistent underlying cost pressures across the economy, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may struggle to ease monetary policy quickly.

Rising Treasury yields have broad implications for the economy because they influence borrowing costs on mortgages, corporate debt and other forms of credit.

Higher long-term yields can also increase financing costs for the US government at a time when public debt is nearing $40 trillion (€34.1tn).

Investors are increasingly concerned that a combination of resilient economic growth, elevated energy prices and sustained government borrowing could keep inflationary pressures alive despite two years of restrictive monetary policy.

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond being auctioned above 5% is a symbolic threshold last reached in 2007 before the onset of the global financial crisis.

While market conditions today differ substantially from that period, the move nonetheless underscores the sharp repricing that has taken place in global bond markets over the past two years.

Kevin Warsh inherits a difficult policy environment

Kevin Warsh takes over the Federal Reserve at a delicate moment for the US economy.

The former Morgan Stanley banker and Fed governor has previously argued in favour of maintaining the central bank’s credibility on inflation, while also signalling support for reforms to the institution’s communication strategy and balance sheet policies.

Warsh’s confirmation comes as financial markets remain divided over how aggressively the Federal Reserve should respond to persistent inflation pressures.

Some investors believe rates may need to stay higher for an extended period, while others warn that maintaining tight monetary conditions for too long could weigh heavily on economic growth and employment.

The main driver of the rise in inflation is the current disruption to global energy markets caused by the Iran war which also leaves the central bank at the mercy of geopolitics and not able to effectively control the situation.

Analysts stated that Wednesday’s Treasury auction illustrated the immediate challenge confronting the incoming Fed chair.

Elevated bond yields can help tighten financial conditions without additional rate increases from the central bank, but they can also amplify risks for heavily indebted households, businesses and the federal government itself.

For Warsh, the market reaction served as an early reminder that restoring confidence on inflation may prove more complicated than simply holding interest rates at restrictive levels.

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Shoulder Innovations forecasts $65M-$68M 2026 net revenue as it raises guidance following Q1 growth (NYSE:SI)

Earnings Call Insights: Shoulder Innovations (SI) Q1 2026

Management View

  • “I’m very pleased to report that 2026 is off to a strong start” and the company “deliver[ed] first quarter net revenue of $16.7 million, an increase of 65% year-over-year and 16% sequentially,” with “first quarter gross margin” at “77.7%,” according to (Executive chairman, CEO & president

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Two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports to come from the US amid increased reliance

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Europe’s reliance on American liquefied natural gas is set to increase further next year as the EU continues efforts to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports, according to new analysis published by the IEEFA on Wednesday.


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The report estimates that the US could supply close to two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports in 2026, reinforcing Washington’s dominant position in the continent’s gas market after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran war reshaped global energy flows.

According to IEEFA, the US already accounted for 57% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025, a sharp increase compared with pre-war levels.

The organisation warned that the share could continue rising over the coming years if current import trends persist and additional long-term supply contracts enter into force.

The findings come as most European governments seek to fully eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 under the European Commission’s REPowerEU strategy.

Since 2022, EU member states have rapidly expanded LNG purchases, particularly from the US, to compensate for declining Russian pipeline deliveries.

The IEEFA stated that the shift had improved Europe’s short-term energy security but also created a growing concentration risk.

The think tank argued that replacing dependence on Russian gas with heavy reliance on another single alternative supplier could expose Europe to future political and market instability.

Lower demand but higher imports and investment

The report noted that LNG imports from the US generally come at a higher cost than pipeline gas because of liquefaction, shipping and regasification expenses.

The IEEFA estimates that EU countries spent roughly €117 billion on US LNG imports between early 2022 and mid-2025.

Several European policymakers and regulators have previously warned against excessive dependence on imported LNG.

Earlier this year, European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera said the bloc should avoid replacing one energy dependency with another and accelerate investment in renewable power and electrification instead.

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has also raised concerns about supply concentration risks linked to the growing role of US LNG in the European market.

The increase in LNG imports also comes despite a broader decline in European gas consumption in recent years.

High prices following the energy crisis, industrial weakness, energy-saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy have all contributed to lower demand.

The IEEFA data shows Europe’s LNG imports declined in 2024 as gas consumption fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. However, imports rebounded in 2025 amid colder weather conditions and efforts by governments to replenish storage sites.

At the same time, several EU countries continue expanding LNG import infrastructure.

Germany, which previously relied heavily on Russian pipeline gas, has rapidly developed floating LNG terminals and emerged as one of the largest buyers of US LNG in Europe.

Analysts have also questioned whether Europe risks building excess LNG import capacity as long-term gas demand is expected to weaken further during the energy transition in the coming years.

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Becerra’s advisor pleaded guilty. Gubernatorial rivals are piling on

As Xavier Becerra rose to the top echelons of power in Washington and Sacramento over the last two decades, his trusted advisor Sean McCluskie joined him at every step.

The son of a Scottish immigrant, McCluskie had a reputation as a political street fighter and his gruff style complemented Becerra’s more measured, cerebral approach.

Now Becerra is under attack in California’s wide-open governor’s race after McCluskie, 57, pleaded guilty in December to stealing more than $200,000 from Becerra’s campaign account.

The charges were part of a broader scandal that implicated or brushed up against some of Sacramento’s most influential Democratic political advisors, a scheme prosecutors allege included payments, bank fraud and an FBI sting operation that swept McCluskie’s incriminating private conversations and texts into evidence.

Rivals in the California governor’s race have seized on the case to question whether Becerra, one of the front-runners in the contest to succeed outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom, is fit for office and could be swept up in the case.

“We can’t have someone who is running as a Democrat who could run into legal difficulties,” said candidate Tom Steyer, who is close to Becerra in the polls.

Becerra has not been accused of wrongdoing, and prosecutors’ court filings describe him as a victim. He told The Times that he cooperated with investigators, including appearing before the grand jury.

“Sean was as close as any staffer that I’ve ever had,” Becerra said in an interview last week, describing how McCluskie moved across the country twice to work for him.

He added that he’s “racked” his brain to understand the case involving McCluskie and his longtime political consultant, Dana Williamson, both of whom he described as “very highly accomplished people.”

Williamson, who also served as Gov. Gavin Newsom’s chief of staff, was indicted in November. She had refused to cooperate with federal investigators and pleaded not guilty, but recently discussed a plea deal with prosecutors. A court hearing is set for Thursday, according to court filings.

An agreement could unearth more details about the case in the coming weeks, a possibility not lost on the Democrats and Republicans running for governor.

Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, one of the Democrats who has watched Becerra’s rapid ascent in the race, said in a CNN interview Monday that California can’t risk having Becerra in the race with the specter of the ongoing criminal case.

She acknowledged that “I do not have the facts” about the case, but said if Becerra were to finish in the top two in the June 2 primary and then be indicted by the Trump administration’s Department of Justice, a Republican ultimately could win the governor’s race in November.

“Secretary Becerra cannot and has not guaranteed or promised the people of California that he will not be named as a co-conspirator and indicted,” she said.

Other candidates, and reporters, have questioned whether Becerra had a blind spot in trusting McCluskie.

Appearing on Fox40 News last year, Becerra likened the criminal case to being “married for 20 years” and “all of a sudden you find out that your spouse has been cheating.”

According to prosecutors, McCluskie, Williamson, and another consultant skimmed $225,000 from one of Becerra’s dormant campaign accounts and funneled it to McCluskie through various entities.

McCluskie, who declined to speak to The Times, sought the money because he’d taken a pay cut after joining Becerra in Washington when Becerra became Health and Human Services secretary in 2021, according to prosecutors.

And unlike Becerra, he didn’t move full-time to D.C., and was splitting his time between the nation’s capital and California, where his family lived.

On a phone call recorded by the FBI in 2024, McCluskie talked about the scheme and told a consultant, “This money you guys are giving me is helping me fly back and forth to D.C. and live there half part time.”

Becerra, in an interview, said McCluskie never mentioned his money problems. The pair worked together when Becerra served in Congress and as California attorney general.

After President Biden appointed Becerra to lead Health and Human Services, the pair discussed the move back to D.C.

“Even before we went to HHS, we had talked about whether we wanted to do this,” Becerra said. “We both agreed, ‘Yeah, you know, it’s going to be a sacrifice. We’re going to have to make changes.’”

Former Becerra staffers told The Times that Becerra and McCluskie were such a close team that they have a hard time imagining Becerra working in government without McCluskie.

Another former staffer, Amanda Renteria, said the two men bonded over their humble immigrant backgrounds. McCluskie’s family came from Scotland and Italy; Becerra’s relatives came from Mexico.

McCluskie relished going to battle for those less fortunate, she said.

“When Becerra became A.G., [people questioned] whether or not he had the style that could really take on Trump. If you were to meet Sean, you’d be like, Oh yeah, Sean is totally ready for a fight, he’s ready to take him on.

“That was sort of a difference with Becerra. Becerra had that fight in him. Sean wore it a little bit more,” said Renteria, a political strategist.

Becerra has faced repeated questions about his financial judgment after the criminal case revealed that he agreed to pay up to $10,000 a month to Williamson and another consultant to oversee one of his dormant campaign accounts.

The consultants charged him the fee as part of the scheme to divert money to McCluskie, prosecutors allege.

At the time, Becerra, a Biden Cabinet member, was barred from involving himself in campaign matters.

Becerra defended the payments during an interview with Fox40 last year, stating, “I was told that’s the rate I would have to pay to get someone who could manage that and make sure that I don’t have to worry about [violating any federal rules].”

Campaign finance records show Becerra had never paid such a high fee for his other accounts.

Becerra told The Times that his longtime attorney Stephen Kaufman, whom he was also paying to oversee the account, didn’t flag the payments. “I would have expected him to raise issues if he thought there was something wrong,” Becerra said.

Kaufman didn’t respond to questions about the account.

Los Angeles-based political consultant Eric Hacopian told The Times that the fees are “certainly high.”

“It’s obviously something he should’ve noticed. Either he was not paying attention, or was too trusting of these people,” said Hacopian, who isn’t involved in the governor’s race. “At the end of the day, he’s the primary victim.”

At a debate last week, rival candidate Antonio Villaraigosa pounced on the payments made by Becerra, saying that the politician “has to be under suspicion because it doesn’t pass the smell.”

Danni Wang, a spokesperson for Steyer, said in a statement, “So, which is it — did Becerra know about the illegal payments and participate in the campaign’s corruption, or was he a totally incompetent manager oblivious to what was going on underneath his nose?”

Renteria, the former Becerra staffer, said the allegations against McCluskie and others are particularly surprising given Becerra’s reputation as a “straight A student.”

“Part of it broke my heart,” she said.

Jonathan Underland, a Becerra spokesperson, said Becerra “has always been consistent and clear: Every action he took was in accordance with the law.”

“What he didn’t know — and what the FBI’s own investigation goes out of its way to clarify — is that his staff cooked up a scheme designed to deceive him.”

Becerra, in an interview, repeatedly said that he relied on McCluskie. It was McCluskie, he said, who advised him to make the payments. “I trusted him to handle the accounts,” he said.

He also said he was unaware of some of the details laid out by prosecutors.

Prosecutors said Williamson and others created a “no show” job for McCluskie’s wife, Kerry MacKay, to do work for the consultants.

MacKay never was paid, however, and the money went to an account controlled by McCluskie. MacKay, who didn’t respond to requests for comment, was not charged.

McCluskie’s plea agreement states that he told Becerra about his wife’s job with the consultants, though he didn’t tell the politician that his wife wouldn’t actually be doing any work.

Becerra, in an interview, said he didn’t recall McCluskie informing him about his wife’s work.

McCluskie’s sentencing is scheduled for June 4, two days after the primary.

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Exclusive: EU negotiators find deal on key clauses of the EU-US deal

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EU lawmakers have reached a provisional deal to make the EU-US trade agreement suspendable in the event of a market disruption caused by a surge in US imports, Euronews has learned from two sources close to the talks.


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Intense negotiations have been underway between EU governments and the European Parliament over the implementation of the deal, which would cut EU tariffs on US goods to zero, under pressure from the Trump administration.

The US has suggested it will double tariffs on European cars if an agreement to swiftly implement the deal is not approved by the European Parliament by 4 July

MEPs have been pushing for tougher conditions since the agreement was clinched last summer between Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, arguing that it must not become a vehicle for extortion of the EU.

The deal sees tariffs tripling on EU goods entering America, although the duties are not stackable, while US industrial goods are reduced to zero. Members of the European Parliament have been delaying a vote to implement the accord, arguing that it needed to be rebalanced and include clauses to protect the EU’s interests.

In recent days, a provisional compromise was found on a safeguard mechanism allowing the EU to reimpose tariffs on US industrial goods if a surge in imports disrupts the European market. The details of the wording of the clause are still under discussion.

Negotiators also agreed in principle to include a “sunset clause” that would automatically terminate the deal unless renewed. Parliament initially sought an expiry date of March 2028, though the final timeline remains under negotiation, the sources said.

‘Sunrise’ clause sparks tensions

However, talks remain at a standstill over a proposed “sunrise clause” defining when the agreement would begin to apply. The EU Parliament wants the implementation date to start only once Washington complies with the 15% tariff cap, while the Commission opposes the condition and wants it done immediately, one source said.

The sunrise clause was introduced by MEPs after a US Supreme Court ruling in February declared the 2025 US tariffs illegal, prompting Washington to introduce new duties on EU goods that now average above the agreed ceiling, therefore in violation of the deal.

The European Commission is also pushing to remove references to the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument, seen as the EU’s trade bazooka that could curtail US access to the European single market in unprecedented ways.

The Commission is also pushing back against provisions allowing the suspension of the deal if Trump were to threaten the bloc’s territorial integrity again, one of the source said.

Following Trump’s threats earlier this year to target EU countries refusing to support a US acquisition of Greenland, MEPs also added provisions allowing the suspension of the deal in the event of threats to the EU’s territorial integrity.

The Anti-Coercion Instrument is one of the EU’s strongest market defence tools, designed to counter economic pressure from third countries through measures including restrictions on licenses and intellectual property rights. Its use was repeatedly discussed at the height of transatlantic trade tensions last year, but never approved.

EU negotiators are aiming to finalise the agreement by June ahead of a plenary vote in the European Parliament the same month, in time for the 4 July deadline set by Trump.

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