HomeNewsUS-Iran War Puts Strait Of Hormuz Under Fire, Disrupting Global Energy Trade
US strikes on Iran escalate Strait of Hormuz tensions, spiking energy prices, disrupting trade and heightening global geopolitical risk.
Trade traffic within the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted as fuel tankers and other shipping remain vulnerable to attacks and are virtually uninsurable, amplifying fears that the US-Israeli war on Iran is turning into a broader global conflict with major economic consequences.
Global energy prices, especially, are a key focus point since the Strait serves as a critical maritime artery for roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows — 70% of that oil goes to China, South Korea, India, and Japan.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s standoff with EU leaders over the use of certain military bases is making an already contentious situation worse.
Chokepoint Under Fire
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim total control of the passage just days after US-led airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Center is actively documenting multiple vessel attacks and electronic interference affecting navigation in and around the Gulf.
A bomb-carrying drone boat struck a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, killing at least one mariner, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing Omani authorities.
The economic shock was swift. West Texas Intermediate crude notched its biggest two-day rally since March 2022. European natural gas prices nearly doubled in 48 hours. The biggest jolt came after QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas production following attacks on its facilities, sending European gas prices soaring more than 40%. The United States Oil Fund LP rallied over 15% over the past five days.
Analysts are also at odds over whether a total Iranian blockade will occur.
Insurance Vanishes, Ships Stall
“A sustained, structural military blockade by Iran that totally stops ships from passing through is unlikely,” Morningstar Equity Director Joshua Aguilar said. Still, the commercial reality may produce the same effect.
“Ships may not pass through because no insurance is willing to cover them,” Aguilar added
Mutual insurers such as the London P&I Club, NorthStandard, UK P&I Club and Noord Nederlandsche P&I Club provide coverage for vessels navigating volatile regions. If that coverage drops, shipping companies face untenable exposure — effectively freezing commerce even absent a formal blockade.
In response, Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he had ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to offer political risk insurance and guarantees “for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf.” He also said the US Navy would escort tankers through the Strait.
BIMCO’s Chief Safety & Security Officer, Jakob Larsen, scrutinized the logic of Trump’s plan. Indeed, naval escorts would reduce the threat ships currently face.
“That said, providing protection for all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic,” he says. “This would require a very high number of warships and other military assets.”
CaixaBank, in a research note on Wednesday, issued its own warnings about Iran’s attacks and Strait of Hormuz closures. Energy prices will spike as long as the disruption continues, the firm predicts.
“Iran’s response — expanding the radius of the conflict, effectively closing maritime traffic through Hormuz, and threatening critical infrastructure — is causing a short-term escalation of tensions,” the firm stated. “It remains to be seen for how many days this response can be sustained and what approach will be taken by the new leadership core (and, in particular, by Khamenei’s successor).”
Persistent high prices could prompt hawkish European Central Bank and Federal Reserve moves, increasing economic drag, the firm continued.
Transatlantic Talks Turn Tense
The maritime chaos is unfolding alongside a sharp diplomatic rupture with Europe. Trump on Tuesday threatened to “cut off all trade with Spain” after Madrid refused US access to its military bases. He also criticized the UK’s decision to block the use of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
“This is not the age of Churchill,” Trump said during a White House meeting with European counterparts. “The UK has been very, very uncooperative with that stupid island that they have.”
The remarks underscore mounting friction within NATO and the broader Western alliance at a moment when coordinated action would be critical to stabilizing markets. Instead, the spat adds another layer of uncertainty to global trade flows already strained by inflation and tariff confusion on the heels of the US Supreme Court ruling against Trump.
Many dealmaking plans are also likely on hold, marking a stark contrast to 2025, the second-highest year on record for transaction value.
“The sentiment was that the stars were aligned” for a similar trajectory in 2026, said Kyle Walters, an analyst at PitchBook.
M&A consultancies such as McKinsey & Company and Bain & Co. had projected sustained M&A growth in 2026 due to energy security priorities, sovereign wealth fund firepower, and supportive fiscal reforms.
Then one weekend changed the narrative. As Walters puts it: “Uncertainty is bad for M&A appetite.”
Tariff ambiguity can slow deals. Inflation complicates financing. Armed conflict in a region central to global energy flows is far more destabilizing.
“In periods of uncertainty, buyers take a step back. They’re in wait-and-see mode,” Walters said, adding that domestic M&A has been “flipped on its head.” Cross-border activity is particularly exposed, with capital flight, currency volatility, and political risk creating an “unopportunistic M&A environment.” European firms considering expansion into the Middle East now face heightened scrutiny; “It has to be an A+ transaction to proceed,” Walters said.
Markets Brace For Escalation
What began the year as a story of alignment and acceleration has become one of recalibration — with capital pausing just as geopolitical risk surges.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, outlined a short-term scenario in which the US coordinates with Israel to overwhelm Iran and minimize retaliation against US assets and the Strait itself.
But even a limited campaign carries economic consequences.
Abigail Hall, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, warned that energy markets are likely to bear the brunt. “There are already concerns about shipping and other disruptions — particularly around the Strait of Hormuz,” she said, pointing to “knowledge constraints on the part of policymakers and the presence of misaligned incentives.”
Hall also expressed skepticism that the US-led strikes would produce long-term political transformation inside Iran. “You may have ‘cut the head off the snake,’ but neglected the fact that there were many other vipers in the room,” she said.
Military strikes, she explained, often empower the most extreme factions of a country and produce a “rally-around-the-flag” effects whereby an external attack draws the civilian population toward the existing regime.
“In Iran we’ve seen that military escalation, and the domestic dissent it inspires,” she adds. “It often leads to harsher repression and increased regime control.”
Nguyen The Anh, Director of Private & Priority Banking at Techcombank, spoke with Global Finance about the rapid maturation of Vietnam’s wealth management market and the growing importance of preparing next-generation clients and families for long-term succession planning.
Techcombank was named Best Private Bank in Vietnam 2026 by Global Finance, with the award presented at a ceremony held at Claridge’s in London, bringing together leaders from across the global private banking industry.
The recognition reflects Techcombank’s expanding wealth platform and its commitment to supporting Vietnamese entrepreneurs and families as they navigate intergenerational wealth creation, preservation, and transition.
Three athletes who were led off course when leading the US half marathon championship will receive compensation after ultimately finishing well outside the top three.
Organisers of the event in Atlanta said that police assigned to mark out the route had to respond to an emergency call, which led to confusion from the lead vehicle.
Jess McClain, who was comfortably leading the women’s race, was taken off the main course, along with her closest challengers Ednah Kurgat and Emma Hurley.
The race was won by Molly Born, who had been more than a minute behind, while McClain finished ninth, with Hurley coming 12th and Kurgat in 13th.
The Atlanta Track Club said on Tuesday it will award first-place prize money to McClain while Hurley and Kurgat will split the combined winnings for second and third place as they were shoulder-to-shoulder when they left the route.
“We are responsible for the integrity of these championships,” the club said in a statement.
“We regret that Jess McClain, Emma Grace Hurley and Ednah Kurgat were impacted by this incident and were unable to be recognised as the top three finishers reflective of their performance on the course.”
Organisers said race-assigned police personnel responded to an “officer down” call and replacement officers were unfamiliar with the race’s “unusual route” over a footbridge not normally used by cars.
The lead vehicle’s driver then followed a police motorcycle, believing that the race was being rerouted.
While the US pursues fossil fuel dominance, China is looking to lead the way on renewables. Which model of energy security will the rest of the world follow?
Aside from regime change, a central goal of President Donald Trump’s military actions in Venezuela and against Iran has been to reinforce the US as a dominant petroleum producer while curtailing federal support for alternative energy. The war in the Middle East has already injected new uncertainty into global energy markets — with strikes on Iranian infrastructure driving oil prices higher and disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz — and may prompt some countries to rethink their dependence on fossil fuels even as short-term demand spikes.
In sharp contrast, China is intent on advancing its lead in renewable technology, even as it meets massive domestic demand for coal and oil. These divergent national approaches set up a fundamental global contest: Will fossil fuel dominance or renewable leadership define the future of energy security?
As these two superpowers intensify their competition for economic and geopolitical dominance, the world’s climate future and investment flows will largely hinge on which energy model—oil or renewables—proves most viable. The global energy landscape risks a clear split: one path leading to enduring fossil-fuel dependence, the other to a renewable-powered world.
As a November report by the Washington, DC-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies put it, “Nearly 10 years after the signing of the Paris Agreement, a new energy investment paradigm is taking shape” that is likely to influence, if not determine, government and industry policy decisions on energy security, affordability, and competitiveness.
Ray Cai, associate fellow and CSIS author
At this point, the CSIS report notes, the paradigm shows fragmentation, volatility, and scarcity, even as state intervention rises. Its author, associate fellow Ray Cai, writes: “A widening bifurcation between hydrocarbon and low-emission value chains—in part accelerated by strategic competition between the US and China—is already reshaping global energy investment flows.”
This bifurcation, as Cai describes, is a world of “two tracks.” One track features economies with secure, affordable access to fossil fuels. Most countries are net importers, while exporters are few. As a result, the US has become a significant oil and LNG producer and exporter. According to Cai, this shift also reinforces the country’s retreat from its postwar role as “facilitator and guarantor of global trade.”
On the other track, he continues, economies are turning to electrification and renewables. Nearly 90% of energy generation capital expenditure in the Global South in 2024 was allocated to low-emission sources, about double the share from 10 years ago. “Driving this shift is China,” says Cai, noting that the nation has led global supply chain and manufacturing investment both at home and abroad.
Much of the globe, including China, is adopting what Martin Pasqualetti, an Arizona State University professor and author of several books on energy geography, calls “an all-of-the-above” approach to energy policy, pursuing all power sources, including oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, geothermal, and wind.
Meanwhile, the US under the Trump administration has ended subsidies for electric vehicles and other alternative-fuel applications as it seeks to boost fossil fuel production and exports. Yet this emphasis risks squandering its many competitive advantages across other energy sources, including alternatives, according to a September report by JPMorgan Chase.
“North America has a significant strategic advantage in energy because of the sheer number of energy resources it has a competitive advantage in—fossil fuels, solar, geothermal, and wind,” the authors noted, adding that if the US fully takes advantage of all those energy resources, it will be unrivaled in what they call “the New Energy Security Age.” But they point out, “recent policy shifts from Washington are creating uncertainty for America’s offshore wind ambitions—which can be a key strategic advantage for the US alongside fossil fuels, geothermal, and nuclear.”
Cai agrees that recent US policy shifts are creating uncertainty for investors in alternatives, telling Global Finance in an interview that “policy pullbacks and regulatory obstruction can raise financing costs, slow project timelines, and erode competitiveness for US firms.”
Navigating The Valley Of Death
Pasqualetti says moving from fossil fuels to renewables means passing through a “valley of death,” a period when returns must prove profitable before funding runs out. Sometimes these investments rely on government subsidies until they can become profitable at scale. He notes that the “valley” has narrowed sharply as the prices of renewables have dropped. “We’re not going to make conversion quickly,” he says, “but we’ve been making it faster than expected.”
On the other hand, oil is proving less profitable for producers at its recent price of around $60 a barrel. Experts estimate that the “heavy” oil that characterizes Venezuela’s hefty reserves may cost at least $80 a barrel to extract and process for sale. So Pasqualetti finds the Trump administration’s plans to take over its petroleum industry puzzling. “If you increase our domestic supply, increase production, capture Venezuelan ghost ships and sell the oil on the market,” he asks, “won’t that just drive the price down?”
Cai noted in the interview that while the Trump administration has signaled its clear intent to advance the US fossil fuel and mining industries, “industry stakeholders remain constrained by market fundamentals and capital discipline.” He continued, “Producers and investors alike have shown limited appetite for aggressive expansion due to soft demand expectations and oversupply conditions in global markets.”
Cai doubts the Trump administration will see its stated policy goal materialize quickly, if at all. “Heightened geopolitical risk resulting from further military action may increase volatility and suppress near-term investment,” he said in the interview.
In contrast, China is forging ahead on all fronts, as the JPMorgan report notes: “For the foreseeable future, Beijing will continue to deploy an energy strategy that seeks to dominate … global renewable energy innovation, exports, and markets while still relying on sources like coal at home to power China’s industrial and technological rise.”
If China is hedging its bets, much of the rest of the world is as well. JPMorgan notes that India and Brazil, along with China and others, are forming new energy alliances and setting their own standards based on competitive advantages in natural resources, shifts toward energy self-sufficiency away from fossil fuels, and technological exports. “Strategic energy independence actions are strengthening to reduce geopolitical exposure to former trade partners,” the authors note.
India, the world’s most populous nation, is especially active in pursuing alternatives to fossil fuels. Renewables account for 89% of India’s newly installed power capacity, with the majority being solar.
Despite holding the third-largest oil reserves after Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, Iran aims to get two-thirds of its power from natural gas over the next five to seven years. Pasqualetti says, “They want to move to renewables as fast as they can.” Of course, Tehran’s plans are in question now that it is under attack by the US and Israel. And the regime faced Western sanctions and popular unrest even before war broke out in the region.
Imports Versus Exports
To better understand global energy trends, Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects, an energy consultancy based in London, says it’s helpful to distinguish between countries’ domestic and international policies. Bronze describes China’s “pragmatic” energy strategy, for example, as embracing both fossil fuels and alternatives for domestic purposes and exporting large quantities of green technology while resisting international climate agreements. He says this reflects China’s reliance on fossil fuels to power domestic consumption and on green technology to power exports.
Richard Bronze, co-founder of Energy Aspects
Similarly, he says Saudi Arabia is successfully diversifying its economy. Reliance on oil for government revenues has fallen from almost 90% in 2014 to 60% in 2024. While the country aims to be less of a “petro state,” shifting power generation from oil to natural gas and solar, it still sees itself as “the last man standing” in oil exports before the global shift to renewables.
Bronze sees the world as three groups, not just two tracks: One group is pursuing alternatives, including Europe and India. A second “all-of-the-above” group includes China and Saudi Arabia. The third focuses on fossil fuels and nuclear power, as in the US and Russia. While the third group may oppose transitioning to renewable energy, Bronze says this strategy has short-term geostrategic logic for the Trump administration.
In effect, Trump’s policy aims to counter Chinese influence everywhere. This includes discouraging imports of Chinese technology and products, affecting alternative energy and high-tech exports such as rare-earth minerals. This may explain the recent, though apparently abandoned, interest in acquiring Greenland, which has significant reserves.
And of course, the Trump administration is “championing a domestic oil industry,” as Bronze puts it. In sum, by using petroleum to counter China’s exports of alternatives, US policy reflects what he calls “a somewhat coherent political thesis.”
Still, he notes that the transition to renewables is inevitable if you accept the premise that a sustainable environment requires moving away from fossil fuels. “All the science says it’s necessary if we’re going to keep a livable world,” he asserts.
Cai sees energy geopolitics differently. Rather than countering China’s advantage in alternatives, he contends that the central motivation of recent US moves is to reinforce US comparative strengths, particularly in fossil energy, in service of what he terms the administration’s “hemispheric security ambitions,” as outlined in its recent National Security Strategy.
Regardless, Bronze notes that a change in US administrations may be accompanied by a shift in energy policy. “We saw a handbrake turn” away from the Biden administration’s policy by his successor, Bronze observes, suggesting a similar turn is possible, if not likely, in the future.
Alice C. Hill, senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations,
Other observers are skeptical that a U-turn by the US is likely anytime soon. As Alice C. Hill, a senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations, told a roundtable discussion last March, “The US is not going to be a player in the international arena on climate. We’ve got this pendulum that swings back and forth, and so it’s very hard to maintain that sort of true north right down the middle.” In an interview with Global Finance, Hill added that given the Trump administration’s policies, “it will be harder for a new administration to turn back, because there will be that much more to unravel.”
The Reign Of Uncertainty
As a result, the only certainty at this point may be uncertainty. The Trump administration’s actions in Iran and Venezuela could produce what Bronze calls “a spectrum of outcomes,” ranging from chaos to the reintegration of oil exports into the market. And while the latter outcome might indeed bring oil prices down further, he says it would also serve the administration’s goal of lowering inflation. At present, however, with oil prices soaring, that goal is in doubt.
If Trump seems isolated in insisting that global warming is a hoax, that view is increasingly shared, to some degree, among right-wing political parties in Europe, Bronze points out. There’s been a real politicization of the energy transition,” he says.
Cai of CSIS agrees, noting that recent electoral results have contributed to policy diversity. As he sees it, the European Union “is moderating from an aggressive decarbonization drive to rebalance for energy security and industrial competitiveness.” In contrast, he adds, “the US has retreated from climate leadership in favor of fossil fuel abundance and trade protectionism. China, on the other hand, has deepened its commitment to renewables manufacturing and exports while maintaining coal capacity.”
Still, most countries accept that renewable energy must eventually replace fossil fuels. Notwithstanding rising opposition in some European circles, the European Union and China recently pledged an expanded partnership, JPMorgan notes, “even as Brussels drives forward on a campaign to diversify its supply chains away from China.” One of the agreements between Beijing and the EU is to accelerate the deployment of global renewable energy. Pasqualetti contends that US efforts to slow a similar renewable future are misguided. “We’re not going to get out of the oil age because we ran out of oil,” he says.
Cai puts it more even-handedly. “Ultimately, the policy challenge ahead is pragmatic rather than ideological,” he says, noting that it will likely shape global investment flows. “Investors are gravitating toward jurisdictions that can combine strategic clarity with consistent execution.” By that standard, he argues, neither the US nor China fully qualifies. “Most countries will not replicate either model wholesale,” he tells Global Finance.
“The fracturing of the post-World War II global system is reinforcing divergence in energy pathways shaped by political economy and practical constraints.”
As a result, Cai adds, energy investors—and policymakers elsewhere—now face risks under both regimes. “Heightened policy uncertainty in the US has contributed to capital outflows that have, in some cases, even raised concerns about the dollar’s reserve-currency status,” he says.
China, by contrast, presents what he calls “a different trade-off.” Investors increasingly recognize its structural advantages in renewable manufacturing and supply chains, yet remain wary of geopolitical risk and the broader trajectory of decoupling. He points to Canada’s recent electric-vehicle trade deal with Beijing as an example of how widening rifts between the US and its traditional allies may create new opportunities for China.
How durable or profitable those openings prove remains to be seen. But on current trends, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Hill warns, “the US will isolate itself over the long haul.”
The US-Israeli military campaign that began on Saturday has already killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders, triggered retaliatory strikes across the region and raised the spectre of prolonged disruption to global energy flows.
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While diplomats scramble and the UN calls for restraint, certain defence contractors and energy majors have emerged as early market victors.
As the conflict enters its fourth day, demand for advanced weaponry, missile-defence systems and intelligence platforms is projected to surge.
Lockheed Martin’s stock, the world’s largest defence contractor by revenue, hit a new all-time high on Monday, closing at $676.70 after rising over 4%.
Its F-35 fighters, precision munitions and radar systems are central to the air campaign under way over Iran.
The rally extended across the defence sector.
Northrop Grumman shares jumped 6%, lifted by its stealth-bomber and missile-defence technologies.
RTX, formerly Raytheon, gained nearly 5% while L3Harris Technologies and General Dynamics also recorded solid increases.
Palantir Technologies, whose data-analytics tools support intelligence operations, rose almost 6%.
European companies followed the upward trend on a more modest scale. Germany’s Renk and Italy’s Leonardo posted gains as investors eyed possible increases in NATO procurement and export orders.
Analysts note that defence budgets, already earmarked for growth in 2026, now face even fewer hurdles in Washington and European capitals.
With President Trump stating that operations could last “four to five weeks” or “far longer”, and Iran continuing missile and drone barrages, markets are positioning for weeks of high-intensity military activity.
The gains reflect classic geopolitical risk pricing.
Other market outliers
These rises stand in sharp contrast to broader equity weakness, highlighting how narrowly the benefits are concentrated. Beyond the pure-play defence names, energy companies have been the other clear outperformers, riding the oil and gas wave.
Iranian retaliation has already included strikes to energy sites in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, which could choke off roughly 20% of global oil supply and send energy prices soaring.
The international benchmarks for oil, Brent crude (BZ) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are trading at over $82.50 and $75.50 respectively, at the time of writing.
Alongside them, integrated oil majors moved swiftly higher.
ExxonMobil shares rose more than 4% recording a new all-time high, while Chevron, Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips posted comparable gains.
In Europe, Shell and TotalEnergies advanced in line with the global pricing surge.
The QatarEnergy LNG production halt announced on Monday, following Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities, sent European benchmark TTF gas prices over 50% higher, reaching €62/MWh by Tuesday.
Markets reacted swiftly as the indefinite shutdown raised immediate fears of rerouted demand and renewed energy inflation risks in Europe.
LNG equities climbed notably since Monday’s open on the news.
Cheniere Energy, the largest LNG exporter in the US, Venture Global and Australia’s Woodside Energy, all saw intraday strength at the start of the week.
However, analysts caution that actual substitution will take time due to shipping and contract constraints, keeping price action geopolitically sensitive.
The European Commission announced it is closely tracking both price and supply developments and will convene an Energy Task Force with Member States, in liaison with the International Energy Agency, for a meeting sometime this week.
Nedbank is one step closer to acquiring 66% of Kenya’s NCBA, expanding East African footprint and fueling continental growth strategy.
African banking giant Nedbank continues to pursue a calculated growth strategy on the continent, receiving regulatory approval to acquire a 66% controlling stake in NCBA for $855.5 million.
The deal, while subject to the remaining conditions of the waiver and NCBA shareholder approval, would be one of the largest cross-border banking transactions in Africa’s recent history.
Driving the purchase is Nedbank’s realization that its South African home market is stagnating while other markets are hitting saturation mode, largely due to stiff competition. For this reason, the bank is taking bold steps to sustain growth and has identified the East Africa region as the next frontier.
Nedbank said in a statement that the strategic acquisition brings it “complementary strengths” to fuel its growth in East Africa, a region underpinned by expanding economies, a large and growing population, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, and the fact that there is primary trade corridor linking Africa with the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.
One of the leading lenders in Kenya, the bank would bring more than 60 million customers, $5.4 billion in assets, and leadership in asset finance, digital banking, and innovation to Nedbank. NCBA also has a presence in Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, and offers digital banking services in Ghana and the Ivory Coast. This would expand Nedbank beyond its presence in Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe
By combining the two banks, Nedbank is building a “compelling platform for sustainable growth in the region,” said Jason Quinn, Nedbank Group CEO. The transaction is pending regulatory approval and is expected to close later in the year.
NCBA saw its profits surge by 8.5% to $127 million for the nine-month period ending September 2025. It has also delivered an average return on equity of approximately 19% since 2021. Nedbank has made it clear that the acquisition, which will see NCBA remain independently governed and retain its brand identity, is not an end in itself. Rather, it serves as a springboard for further expansions to high-potential markets like Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The benchmark European gas price, traded on the Dutch TTF hub, rose by as much as 45% to around €46 per megawatt-hour in early afternoon trading.
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UK natural gas prices also surged, with the NBP benchmark climbing sharply in tandem with continental markets.
High market volatility has driven sharp minute-by-minute swings.
The sharp increase follows US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have heightened tensions in a region critical to global energy flows.
QatarEnergy announced early Monday afternoon that it had halted liquefied natural gas production linked to the giant North Field gas reservoir following an attack on its facilities, but gave no further details as to the extent of the impact on operations.
Strait of Hormuz disruption raises global concerns
A large proportion of the world’s energy supply comes from the Middle East, and before the announcement from Qatar, the seaborne oil and gas transport was at the centre of market fears.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage largely controlled by Iran, is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints for oil and LNG, including exports from Qatar.
Iran has moved to block traffic through the strait following the strikes, raising concerns about supply interruptions.
“In modern history, the Strait of Hormuz has never been actually closed, albeit a temporary slowing of traffic has occurred,” said Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.
He added that “about 20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz and 38% of seaborne crude oil trade.”
Carulli does not expect oil shipping companies to send through their vessels until “the military situation de-escalates”, due to the risk of ship damage or seizures, as well as temporary unavailability of insurance cover.
“Satellite data shows that oil tanker transit had virtually halted over the weekend, a precautionary measure by shipping companies,” he added.
Any sustained disruption could affect LNG shipments from Qatar, which supplies around 12% to 14% of Europe’s LNG imports.
Europe exposed to global competition
While Europe does not rely primarily on Qatari gas, analysts say the indirect impact could still be significant.
If supplies to Asia are disrupted, buyers there may seek alternative cargoes, increasing global competition for LNG.
This would likely push prices higher worldwide, including in Europe.
Qatar, the world’s third-largest LNG exporter after the United States and Australia, has become an increasingly important supplier to Europe since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced European countries to reduce their dependence on Russian pipeline gas.
Low storage levels increase vulnerability
Europe’s relatively low gas storage levels have added to market anxiety.
Storage across the European Union is currently below 30% capacity as the winter heating season draws to a close, compared with around 40% at the same point last year.
Germany and France, the bloc’s two largest economies, are among the most vulnerable.
Germany’s gas storage facilities were 20.5% full as of Saturday, while France’s stood at 21%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
Lower reserves leave countries more vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility, particularly if global LNG markets tighten further.
European markets cratered on Monday as the fallout from a dramatic weekend of US and Israeli strikes on Iran rattled investors across the continent.
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The Euro Stoxx 50 shed 2% at the open, with the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 close behind at -1.8% — and the selling shows no signs of stopping.
Regional indices from Frankfurt to Paris to Milan are all in the red, spooked by an escalating conflict that has choked shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and drawn Hezbollah into the fray on Sunday.
In London, the FTSE 100 is having the more durable response, only falling around 0.3%.
However, Germany’s DAX 30 edged down 1% whilst France’s CAC 40 dropped more than 1.4%.
Italy’s FTSE MIB fell roughly 1.8%, the Netherlands’ NL 25 declined over 1% and Spain’s IBEX 35 has seen a sharp drop of more than 2%.
Before European markets opened, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was already in free fall and is currently down over 2.3%.
Likewise, US futures opened lower on Sunday with the E-mini S&P 500 dropping over 1.6% and E-mini NASDAQ down more than 2%.
In the UAE, regulators have taken the dramatic step of shutting down both the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for the next two days.
The Capital Market Authority made no attempt to dress it up and the closures are explicitly designed to prevent panic selling after a staggering 165 ballistic missiles, 541 drones, and 2 cruise missiles rained down on the country over just 48 hours.
Oil and precious metals
While global markets sink into negative territory, crude oil prices rose in early trade on Monday morning as investors continue to weigh the potential impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on the supply of energy.
The price of a barrel of US benchmark crude initially surged by about 8%. It later traded 5.9% higher at $71.00 per barrel. Brent crude rose 6.2% to $77.38 per barrel.
Gold is up roughly 2.5% while silver climbed 2% and platinum 1.2% as well.
Oil prices climbed on Monday morning as investors assessed the economic impact of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, which triggered swift retaliation from Tehran targeting assets in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
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In early trade, the price of a barrel of US benchmark crude initially surged by about 8%. It later traded 5.9% higher at $71.00 per barrel. Brent crude rose 6.2% to $77.38 per barrel.
Traders were betting that oil supplies from Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East could slow or grind to a halt. Attacks across the region, including on two vessels travelling through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf — have restricted countries’ ability to export oil to the rest of the world.
“Roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) flows squeeze through the Strait of Hormuz. This is not an obscure canal. It is the aorta of the global energy system,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary note.
A prolonged war would likely result in higher prices for other fuels and petrol, and could ripple through the global economy, adding to overall production costs.
Likewise, prolonged interruptions to oil flows through the Middle East would have “huge implications for oil and LNG and every market everywhere if it occurs. Energy is an input to all production,” RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets said in a report.
Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China. Beijing may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran’s exports are disrupted — another factor that could push energy prices higher.
However, China has ample oil reserves of up to 1.5 billion barrels and could offset a decline in Iranian oil by increasing imports from Russia, said Michael Langham of Aberdeen Investments.
The attacks had been anticipated, following a significant build-up of US forces in the Middle East, so traders had already adjusted their positions to account for that risk.
In other early trading on Monday, the price of gold — usually viewed as a safe haven in times of uncertainty — rose 2.4% to about $5,371 per ounce.
Elsewhere, futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down about 0.8% by mid-morning in Bangkok.
Asian shares also opened lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 initially fell more than 2%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 1.6% to 26,215.91, while the Shanghai Composite was flat at 4,163.01.
Taiwan’s benchmark index fell 0.6% and Singapore’s dropped 1.9%. In Bangkok, the SET declined 2.1%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.3% to 9,173.50.
The STOCK Act requires public disclosure of securities trades by Congress members.
Disclosures can be accessed through government websites and third-party databases.
Democratic-tracking ETF outperformed Republican-tracking ETF since February 2023.
ETFs face trading and information delays due to disclosure rules.
Both ETFs have a high expense ratio of 0.74%.
Curious about where lawmakers invest their money? Politicians’ investment choices often attract attention because of their unique position in shaping policy. In fact, a 2024 report by the trading platform Unusual Whales found that more than 20 members of Congress earned nearly double the S&P 500’s average gain.
Thanks to the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, the public can see what members of Congress are investing in. But how do you actually find this information? And what can it tell you about market trends or potential conflicts of interest?
What Is the STOCK Act and Why Does It Matter?
The STOCK Act was passed in 2012 following high-profile reports of lawmakers making well-timed trades around major economic events, such as the 2008 financial crisis. It was designed to boost transparency and restore public trust. The law requires members of Congress and senior federal officials to disclose any securities transaction over $1,000 within 45 days of the trade. These disclosures cover politicians, as well as their spouses and dependent children.
It’s important to note that insider trading by members of Congress is prohibited under federal securities law, just like it is for everyone else. The STOCK Act reaffirmed this prohibition and made clear that lawmakers can’t use nonpublic information gained through their official duties for personal financial gain. However, proving insider trading requires demonstrating that someone knowingly used material, nonpublic information. That’s a high legal bar, which is one reason there haven’t yet been any prosecutions under the STOCK Act.
After reported outsized gains by senior White House officials and members of Congress just before major tariff announcements in April 2025, the push to ban securities trading altogether by those in Congress gained new momentum, with Senators Mark Kelly and Jon Ossoff reintroducing their Ban Congressional Stock Trading Act in May 2025.
How To Access Congressional Stock Trade Information
So, how can you get information on what politicians are buying and selling? Here are several options:
Official disclosure portals:The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate both maintain searchable online databases. Here, you can look up individual lawmakers’ financial disclosures, including all reported stock trades. Just enter a name, date, or transaction type, and you’ll find detailed records.
Third-Party Trackers: Several third-party tools have emerged to make tracking even easier. Sites like Smart Insider, Quiver Quantitative, and InsiderFinance aggregate and analyze congressional disclosures, letting you search by politician, stock, or sector. These platforms often highlight recent trades, show which lawmakers are most active, and even track the performance of stocks favored by Congress.
Key Considerations for Using Data on Congressional Stock Trades
Congressional trades are disclosed after the fact—often 45 days later or more—so you’re seeing moves that may already be reflected in prices. In 2023, Business Insider identified 78 members of Congress who violated the law, highlighting enforcement gaps. As such, you should treat these disclosures as just one piece of your research puzzle, not a shortcut to guaranteed profits or market timing.
In addition, not every politician is an expert investor, and many hold portfolios riskier than most professionals would recommend. Following these trades too closely can expose you to unnecessary volatility or lead you to overlook your own financial goals. Always balance congressional data with your personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and a diversified investment approach.
Tip
Two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now let you mirror congressional trades—the Democratic-focused NANC and Republican-focused GOP. Since launching in February 2023, the Democratic ETF has significantly outperformed with a 58.9% return compared with the Republican ETF’s 30.2% return. Both funds charge a high expense ratio (0.74%) and face trading and information delays since trades aren’t disclosed for up to 90 days after they occur.
The Bottom Line
The STOCK Act provides important access to what lawmakers are buying and selling. While tracking these moves can offer insights into emerging sectors or companies that may be in the regulatory spotlight, remember that disclosure delays and enforcement gaps limit the practical value for investment timing.
The real story here may be transparency itself. As public pressure mounts for stricter rules or outright trading bans, these disclosures serve more as a window into potential conflicts of interest than a reliable investment strategy.
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Much has been made of the Dodgers’ exorbitant spending, magnified by a pair of World Series titles for the franchise, as Major League Baseball enters the final year of the current collective bargaining agreement.
The Dodgers open 2026 with a record $381 million payroll, while having over $1 billion in deferrals. As if signing Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández and Blake Snell, and extending Tyler Glasnow and Will Smith weren’t enough, the club once again opened up its wallet this winter, spending a combined $309 million on four-time All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker and three-time reliever of the year Edwin Díaz.
Relief pitcher Blake Treinen, one of the longest-tenured players on the Dodgers heading into his seventh season with the team, did not mince words when asked about how outsiders view the organization.
“Perception is built from the media and maybe owners that don’t like what the Dodgers are doing because they would have to do something similar,” Treinen said earlier this week. “And I say to that, ‘Maybe you’re in the wrong business.’”
Treinen thinks more teams should spend the way that the Dodgers do.
“Is it a bad thing that the people who pay our checks and our salaries want a winning product?” Treinen said. “If you’re going to complain about a team willing to do what it takes to win, then I think you’re in the wrong business. And, if you win, to say that you lose money by winning is a wild statement, so I think the perception is more or less if you don’t like what the Dodgers are doing, either take a look in the mirror or look at the people who aren’t putting a product on the field.”
Treinen went on to say that teams don’t necessarily need to be lavish spenders in order to compete, pointing to how the Milwaukee Brewers posted baseball’s best record a season ago, with the 22nd-highest payroll. The Brewers bested the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central by five games, despite having a payroll nearly $100 million lower than their rival, and reached the National League Championship Series.
“You don’t always have to spend money to be great, look at the Brewers,” Treinen said. “But to say that you can’t compete — like they did — is a wild thing, because [they had] the best record in baseball last year. Draft and development is a big deal, a lot of teams have leaned into it. So, if you either invest heavily in one or the other, and the Dodgers have done a great job of doing both and that’s why players sign here. If you don’t like it, then maybe find a new business model.”
How the Dodgers operate has garnered some praise — the Padres’ Manny Machado and the Phillies’ Bryce Harper weighed in on the subject early in spring training — but the front office wasn’t really seeking it out.
“We’re not looking externally for validation,” Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said earlier this month at Camelback Ranch. “The validation is winning championships and putting out as good a team as we can each and every year, and all we’re trying to do is get a little bit better each and every season, with the goal of winning championships. [Our] coaching staff, our players I think view it as that. Good, bad or indifferent, the external stuff is something we can’t worry about.”
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, speaking at Cactus League media day earlier this month, said the fixation on the money spent makes people miss the things they do well.
“It does get lost, the things that we do well,” Roberts said. “Scouting and player development, I think we do as well as anybody in baseball … to get superstars to play well every night, to put out a good product every single night, I think we do a good job at that.”
“That’s why the biggest conversation should be that instead of a payroll question,” Roberts added. “Why are we good for baseball? Because our players play the game the right way.”
Mexican writer-director Michel Franco (“Memory”) explores dynamics of money, class and the border through the spiky, unsettling erotic drama “Dreams,” starring Jessica Chastain and Isaac Hernández, a Mexican ballet dancer and actor.
In the languidly paced movie, Franco presents two individuals in love (or lust?) who experiment with wielding the power at their fingertips against each other. The film examines the push-pull of attraction and rejection on a scope that’s both intimate and global, finding the uneasy space where the two meet.
Chastain stars as Jennifer McCarthy, a wealthy San Francisco philanthropist and socialite who runs a foundation that supports a ballet school in Mexico City. But Franco does not center on her experience, but that of Fernando (Hernández), whom we meet first escaping from the back of a box truck filled with migrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border. He’s abandoned in San Antonio on a 100-degree day.
His journey is one of extreme survival, but his destination is the lap of luxury: a modernist San Francisco mansion where he makes himself at home and where he’s clearly been before. A talented ballet dancer who has already once been deported, he’s risked everything to be with his lover, Jennifer, though, as a high-profile figure, she’d rather keep her affair with Fernando under wraps. He’s her dirty little secret but he’s also a human being who refuses to be kept in the shadows.
As Jennifer and Fernando attempt to navigate what it looks like for them to be together, it seems that larger forces will shatter their connection. In reality, the only real danger is each other.
The storytelling logic of “Dreams” is predicated on watching these characters move through space, the way we watch dancers do. Franco offers some fascinating parallels to juxtapose the wildly varying experiences of Fernando and Jennifer — he almost dies of thirst and heat stroke; she arrives in Mexico on a private plane, but both enter empty homes alone, melancholy. During a rift in their relationship, Fernando retreats to a motel, drinking red wine out of plastic cups with a friend in his humble room, ignoring Jennifer’s calls, while she eats alone in her darkened dining room, sipping out of crystal.
These comparisons aren’t exactly nuanced but they are stark and, for most of the film, Franco just asks us to watch them move together and apart, in a strange, avoidant pas de deux. Often dwarfed by architecture, their distinctive bodies in space are more important than the sparse dialogue that only serves to fill in crucial gaps in storytelling.
Cinematographer Yves Cape captures it all in crisp, saturated images. The lack of musical score (beyond diegetic music in the ballet scenes) contributes to the dry, flat affect and tone, as these characters enact increasing cruelties — both emotional and physical — upon each other as a means of trying to contain each other, until it escalates into something truly dark and disturbing.
Franco loses the plot of “Dreams” in the third act. What is a rather staid drama about the weight of social expectations on a relationship becomes a dramatically unexpected game of vengeance as Jennifer and Fernando grasp at any power they have over the other. She fetishizes him and he returns the favor, violently.
Ultimately, Franco jettisons his characters for the sake of unearned plot twists that leave the viewer feeling only icky. These events aren’t illuminating and feel instead like a bleak betrayal. The circumstances of the story might be timely, but “Dreams” doesn’t help us understand the situation better, leaving us in the dark about what we’re supposed to take away from this story of sex, violence, money and liberty. Anything it suggests we already know.
Katie Walsh is a Tribune News Service film critic.
The digital euro is facing fresh delays in the European Parliament after the file’s lead rapporteur, Spanish lawmaker Fernando Navarrete Rojas of the European People’s Party (EPP), formed a minority bloc with far-right groups — leaving shadow rapporteurs unable to secure a workable majority around the draft.
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The latest compromise text seen by Euronews would also narrow the project’s scope in a way that goes to the heart of the Commission’s plan.
Brussels proposed a digital form of cash that could be used both online and offline. Navarrete, by contrast, is pushing for an offline-only model.
As rapporteur, Navarrete is responsible for steering the legislative text and building agreement across political groups through negotiations with shadow rapporteurs — a process designed to produce a majority-backed position in Parliament.
The Parliament has already signalled broad support for a digital euro.
On 10 February, lawmakers adopted the European Central Bank’s annual report and backed two pro–digital euro amendments, with opposition mainly coming from some centrist and far-right MEPs.
The EPP itself is split on the file. The German delegation is strongly in favour, amid pressure from Berlin. In mid-February, Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil told journalists that those opposing the digital euro were harming Europe.
Two sources familiar with the talks told Euronews that amendments tabled by Navarrete in the latest compromise text are a non-starter for groups backing the Commission’s plan, pushing the file into a legislative deadlock.
Euronews contacted lead rapporteur Navarrete for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.
The impasse surfaced again at a meeting on Thursday, when lawmakers attempted to bridge differences after a heated discussion, claiming “the text is going nowhere”.
Another meeting is scheduled for 10 March, but sources expect a vote currently pencilled in for May to slip.
EU countries have already agreed their position in the Council. Without a Parliament mandate, the legislation cannot move to the next stage.
What is digital euro?
The digital euro has taken on new political weight as economic tensions between the EU and the US sharpen the debate over Europe’s reliance on American payment giants.
Visa and Mastercard, both US-based, underpin much of day-to-day card spending in Europe. ECB data for 2025 shows the two networks account for 61% of card payments in the EU and nearly all cross-border card payments.
The project would create an electronic form of cash issued by the European Central Bank, designed to sit alongside banknotes and the payments services offered by commercial banks.
Supporters argue it would give citizens direct access to digital “public” money — something that, for now, largely exists only in the form of cash.
Under the Commission’s proposal, users would have a digital wallet for both online and offline payments, with transactions designed so they are not trackable.
Critics say the latest compromise text in Parliament risks stripping out key parts of that vision.
“This first taste of a compromise from Mr. Navarrete sadly shines little light on any actual shift in his direction for the digital euro,” Laura Casonato, head of policy at Positive Money Europe, told Euronews.
Casonato said the draft does contain some welcome elements, including language recognising that the digital euro “should be a sovereign and secure digital means of payment that safeguard public access to central bank money” alongside clearer provisions on privacy and data security.
The NYSE is building a blockchain-powered platform for 24/7 trading and instant settlement of tokenized securities, aiming to modernize global capital markets and challenge traditional trading hubs.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is developing a platform for continuous trading and on-chain settlement of tokenized securities, a development some analysts are hailing as a revolution in global capital markets.
In a January announcement, the Big Board said that, subject to regulatory approval, the digital platform will enable 24/7 operations including “instant settlement, orders sized in dollars, and stablecoin-based funding.”
According to the NYSE, the proposed trading site will blend its proprietary Pillar matching engine with blockchain post-trade systems, “including the capability to support multiple chains for settlement and custody.” The announcement describes the initiative as “a new NYSE venue that supports trading of tokenized shares fungible with traditionally issued securities as well as tokens natively issued as digital securities.”
The announcement signals that the world’s largest traditional exchange is committing to blockchain-native market infrastructure, says Aditya Singh, head of product and strategy for brokerage firm INFINOX. A 24/7, on-chain settlement model removes many of the frictions that have defined capital markets for decades, including delayed settlement, operational risk, and restricted trading hours.
A Wake-Up Call To Competition
“From a global perspective, this puts immediate pressure on financial centers like London, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai to accelerate their own digital asset strategies or risk falling behind as liquidity and institutional participation migrate towards more-efficient, always-on markets,” says Singh.
NYSE parent company Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is advancing a broader digital strategy that includes preparing the clearing infrastructure to support round-the-clock trading and integration of tokenized collateral. ICE is currently working with BNY Mellon and Citi to facilitate tokenized deposits.
“We are leading the industry toward fully on-chain solutions, grounded in the unmatched protections and high regulatory standards that position us to marry trust with state-of-the-art technology,” Lynn Martin, president, NYSE Group said in a statement.
In December, NYSE competitor Nasdaq said it was seeking approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to allow close to 24-hour trading, five days a week. If approved, the new schedule would roll out in the second half of this year. But the development was criticized at the time by some traders as being unnecessary.
Gaza City – Amid the buzz of customers in the Remal neighbourhood in Gaza City, Samar Abu Harbied stops at a small, makeshift roadside stall to buy groceries to prepare an Iftar meal for her family, to break their fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
With no cash in her purse, the 45-year-old housewife asks the grocer if she could put the bill on credit, until her husband or son could wire the money to him.
“I have not touched a paper note for months. I don’t even have money to pay for a taxi. Now we walk a lot, for long distances,” Abu Harbied said.
Najlaa Sukkar, 48, was trying to catch her breath at the same stall, which is run by her son Abdallah, after a failed journey on foot to see a doctor for a post-surgery check-up and to buy medication.
Najlaa said she did not have enough money to pay the 30 shekel (US$9.5) check-up fees, and the only banknote she had, a 20-shekel bill, was so worn out that the pharmacist turned it down.
“I returned without receiving medical care,” she told Al Jazeera.
“At the pharmacy, they didn’t accept the banknotes as they were frayed. The taxi driver didn’t accept a banknote, only small change, which I don’t have. It is very difficult to get by. What a mess, we don’t know what to do!”
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are struggling to conduct their daily lives amid a severe cash flow problem imposed by Israel immediately after it embarked on its genocidal war on Gaza in October 2023.
A US-brokered ceasefire that went into effect in October has brought little reprieve to Palestinians, who are still using worn-out currency they had from before the war, or must rely on a new system of electronic payments conducted through smart telephones amid limited internet coverage.
Palestinians in Gaza use the Israeli currency, the shekel, in their daily transactions, and depend on Israel to supply banks with new banknotes and coins.
A customer pays for groceries using bank account transactions [Ola al-Asi/Al Jazeera]
Electronic payments
Palestinians were forced to turn to a digital payment system as a way to get around a severe shortage of Israeli shekel banknotes, a problem that has been exacerbated by the destruction of an estimated 90 percent of bank branches and cash machines.
The Palestinian Monetary Authority, working with internet service providers, has pushed for mobile-based electronic payments, including PalPay and Jawwal Pay, to help Palestinians overcome the liquidity problem.
Abu Harbeid said her son switched to electronic payments after he faced many problems using the 50 shekels per shift he was receiving while working as a night guard.
“My son, Shady, was receiving his daily wage in cash, which was worn and torn. We could hardly break it into smaller change or buy anything, as sellers don’t accept overused paper bills,” she told Al Jazeera.
“Moreover, the seller doesn’t accept it unless I spend it all, as they don’t have change. Now, as he is paid into his bank account, we buy everything through bank apps,” she added.
But digital payments have added another layer of hardship to a large segment of the population.
Most Palestinians still do not receive bank-transferred salaries, many lack access to smartphones, and those who have phones struggle to keep them charged in an area where electricity services are in severe crisis.
To add to that, there is still the problem of finding a good internet connection for the transfer process.
Abu Harbeid said a proper trip to the market requires her to have her husband or son with her to pay for goods. But neither can leave work to join her.
“I prefer cash in my hand; I could buy anything on the go,” Abu Harbied said.
Abdallah Sukkar, owner of a street grocery stall, recording the details of a customer buying goods on credit [Ola al-Asi/Al Jazeera]
Not only a liquidity shortage issue
Analysts say Gaza’s current economic reality started as a liquidity crisis, but has become an issue of transition from a regulated financial system to a fragmented survival economy shaped by scarcity, informality, and political constraints.
“However, as the months passed, the crisis evolved into something far more structural,” Ahmed Abu Qamar, member of the board of directors of the Palestinian Economists Association, told Al Jazeera.
“The black market now plays a dominant role in determining liquidity conditions. A small group of traders effectively manages cash circulation through high-commission cashing operations.”
He said that when money itself becomes a traded commodity, it signals severe distortion in the monetary system. “Cash, like any commodity, becomes subject to supply and demand dynamics. When it becomes scarce, its value increases beyond its nominal worth. From an economic perspective, this represents a structural disruption of the monetary system.
“The formal banking sector and the Palestinian Monetary Authority were sidelined. What we are seeing is the neutralisation of the formal monetary system,” he said.
Abu Qamar said the deeper issue was confidence – not just in cash, but in the financial system as a whole. “Cash is inherently difficult to track, whereas electronic payments are traceable and can be frozen or restricted. Implementing such a transition abruptly produces severe economic and social distortions,” he warned.
“Widespread selling on credit is not a sign of market stability – it is an indicator of declining incomes and weakened purchasing power. When debt expands rapidly without a parallel increase in income, the result is social fragmentation. Approximately 95 percent of households in Gaza depend on aid,” he added.
People shopping for goods at a grocery store in az-Zawya market [Ola al-Asi/Al Jazeera]
Profiteering from Gaza’s woes
The war has paved the way for middlemen to cash in illegally on the financial woes of Gaza, residents said.
Sukkar said that when her husband or sons needed cash, they were often forced to deal with brokers who charge a hefty commission that could reach 50 percent.
“We lose our money to them for nothing; they steal from us under our full consent,” she said.
Many residents, like Abu Harbeid, also do not trust bank transfers, saying they prefer physical cash in hand.
“I ask my sons, where does that money in the account appear?” said Sukkar.
“Who holds our money in their hands? I used to see money and count it, the banknotes and the change. On some days, when there are technical problems with the bank applications, we get nervous about the possibility of losing the money in their accounts,” she added.
Abdallah Sukkar, whose family ran a well-known family store in the Shujayea area in eastern Gaza before the war, said families who receive direct deposit salaries often buy with bank transfers.
“But I don’t like this method; I prefer cash,” he said.
He said he accepts all banknotes, whether new or worn-out ones, and allows people to buy on credit, but admitted that all of that affects his ability to make improvements to the roadside stall he now runs in place of his family’s old business.
He also complained of unpaid debts, adding that debts had soared by more than 500 percent during the war, while his profits barely reach 2 percent. He said he had given out 20,000 shekels’ worth of goods to new customers, “all of [whom] have become customers during the war”.
“People don’t have money; I can’t turn them away when they come to buy food on credit. It’s already catastrophic in Gaza,” he said.
“From the beginning of Ramadan till now, I haven’t had banknotes and change, which affects the sales. I don’t have small change to give to people who have cash, so they turn to other stalls or shops.
“Yesterday, when the bank application stopped, we were terrified that we might lose our money in the bank,” he said.
Since its public listing on Euronext in 2015, Nicola Perin has served as CFO of Italian mass-market clothing retailer OVS. Previously, he was CFO of the conglomerate Grupo COIN, from which OVS was carved out. OVS operates brands including OVS, Upim, Golden-point, Stefanel, CROFF, and Les Copains, managing a network of 2,600 stores in Italy and abroad.
Global Finance: Over your 10 years guiding OVS’ finances, what are you most proud of doing?
Nicola Perin: What makes me proudest, though not because it is the most difficult task, is that I’ve always kept the machine running smoothly. For a CFO, whether in a listed or private company, nothing is more fundamental than a reliable administrative system: one that produces accurate information, supports mandatory disclosures, and gives management the confidence to make sound decisions. Without that foundation, any other achievement—no matter how ambitious—would have been far less certain.
Among the results I value most, one stands out. In 2014, our CEO, Stefano Beraldo, and I decided to spin off OVS-Upim from the Coin Group to prepare it for listing. It proved to be an extremely successful operation, providing OVS with the financial resources needed for a new phase of growth: expanding our network, increasing volumes, and strengthening our brand portfolio. It laid the financial and managerial groundwork for the significant expansion that followed.
GF:And more recently?
Perin: We have always paid close attention to sustainability. Apparel retail is considered the second most polluting industry after energy, and although we are far smaller than global groups like Inditex, H&M, or Gap, we have always taken these issues very seriously.
Our commitment has often placed us among the leaders, if not always at the very top, and it has also created tangible financial value. In 2022, I proposed and led the issuance of Italy’s first sustainability-linked bond [SLB]. It was a significant milestone; it secured highly attractive financing at a fixed 2.25% and strengthened our market profile. At the time—between 2022 and 2024—sustainability was a dominant theme, and limited supply meant strong demand from investors looking to add green-labeled products to their portfolios. We planned to raise €120 million; we raised €160 million.
GF: Is sustainability still important, given the current political climate?
Perin: Trends aside, the next time we issue a bond—whenever that may be—I will still aim to highlight the company’s sustainability progress. Interest may not be as strong as it was a few years ago, but I believe a sustainability-linked bond remains the right choice for OVS, because it makes our commitment transparent.
An SLB requires us to define clear ESG targets and undergo third-party verification midway through the bond’s life. If we are not on track, the cost of the bond increases. For example, the coupon would rise from 2.25% to 2.45%. In other words, the cost of financing is directly linked to how effectively we deliver on our improvement path.
GF: How deeply are you incorporating AI in the finance function?
Perin: In administrative processes, we rely more on robotics than on AI. By robotics, I mean software that automates repetitive tasks that colleagues once handled step by step. There is some digital intelligence involved, but it’s essentially process automation. A simple example is the DURC check in Italy—verifying that suppliers are up to date on their social security, insurance, and construction fund contributions—which we now execute through robotic processes.
In management control and financing, however, AI is becoming increasingly useful. It helps us write clearer, faster commentary and perform more detailed analyses; work that would take a person eight hours can be multiplied with AI.
But the real frontier for us is in predictive sales. For OVS, Stefanel, Goldenpoint, and all our brands, AI has been supporting forecasting for years. We all know that coats sell earlier in Bolzano than in Palermo, but AI goes much further; it tells us how many to ship, which sizes, how early to move from cotton to wool blends, and what items to substitute when stock runs out. It takes simple, intuitive patterns and transforms them into hundreds of thousands of variables, allowing us to make far more precise decisions.
What began as a largely fintech-led experiment is steadily gaining traction among incumbent banks. Across Europe, established financial institutions are now assessing stablecoins alongside other payment innovations, driven by the need to modernise transaction flows while upholding regulatory discipline, operational resilience and customer confidence.
For many banks, the discussion is no longer about whether stablecoins belong in the financial system, but about how they can be deployed responsibly and at scale. Persistent frictions in cross-border payments, settlement lag and the growing expectation of always-on digital services are exposing the limitations of existing infrastructures, particularly in corporate and wholesale banking. At the same time, Europe faces a strategic question: how to ensure that the future architecture of digital money is not shaped solely by non-European actors or dominated by dollar-based instruments.
Ultimately, the adoption of stablecoins will be determined by practical demand. Different users will gravitate towards different applications, depending on their operational needs and the ecosystems in which they operate. Platforms that integrate stablecoins natively as a payment option are likely to drive early use, especially in cross-border or digital-native environments.
Given their global reach, stablecoins issued by European banks are unlikely to be confined to domestic users. This international dimension implies a diversity of use cases, not only for corporates but also across banks themselves, reflecting differences in business models, geographic exposure and sectoral focus.
Enterprise-first applications
Against this backdrop, a group of major European banks, including CaixaBank, has joined forces to develop a euro-denominated stablecoin backed by regulated financial institutions. Organised through a consortium model and supported by a dedicated entity, Qivalis, the initiative signals a shift towards cooperation as a catalyst for innovation in payments. The initiative is fully compliant with the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), which is set to be completely implemented by mid-2026, marking a significant step forward in regulated digital finance.
In contrast to retail-oriented projects such as the prospective digital euro, bank-backed stablecoins are being designed primarily with enterprise use cases in mind. Features such as near-instant settlement, programmability and cross-border operability create opportunities in areas ranging from treasury management and supply chain finance to the tokenization of financial instruments. For multinational corporates, the value proposition is clear: more efficient, predictable and continuously available payment solutions.
A defining characteristic of these initiatives is their anchoring within a robust regulatory framework. MiCA establishes a common set of rules that addresses concerns around governance, financial stability and user protection. Operating as regulated electronic money institutions, bank-backed stablecoins aim to merge the advantages of distributed ledger technology with the safeguards traditionally associated with the banking sector.
This emphasis on trust alongside innovation is increasingly shaping European banks’ approach to digital assets. As CaixaBank CEO Gonzalo Gortázar has observed, payments are undergoing rapid transformation, with outcomes that remain uncertain. Any new initiatives come with their own set of risks and adoption barriers, but for banks, opting out is not a viable strategy. As with the earlier expansion of instant payments, active engagement is essential to retain strategic flexibility and to help ensure that new instruments strengthen, rather than weaken, the financial system.
A pragmatic approach to blockchain
Beyond efficiency gains, the strategic case also encompasses monetary and technological considerations. A euro-denominated stablecoin issued by a consortium of European banks could contribute to reinforcing Europe’s autonomy in digital finance. In a landscape largely shaped by US dollar-linked stablecoins, a credible euro-based alternative would support global digital transactions while embedding European standards on compliance, data protection and governance.
Qivalis, based in Amsterdam and supported by banks such as CaixaBank, ING, BNP Paribas and UniCredit, illustrates this pragmatic vision. With an experienced management team and governance designed to meet supervisory expectations, the project is targeting a market launch in the second half of 2026. Its focus on concrete economic applications, rather than speculative use, reflects a measured and utility-driven approach to blockchain adoption.
More broadly, the rise of bank-backed stablecoins marks an inflection point for payments in Europe. It suggests a sector that is moving beyond defensive reactions to technological change and instead actively shaping its trajectory. By combining scale, regulatory certainty and collaborative execution, European banks are positioning themselves at the centre of the next phase of digital payments, aligning innovation with stability and efficiency with trust.
As regulation and technology continue to converge, stablecoins are shifting from experimental concepts to practical tools within Europe’s payments ecosystem. Ongoing collaboration between banks, corporates and policymakers will be key to integrating them responsibly and harnessing their potential in support of a more efficient, resilient and competitive European financial system.
After its failure to strike a deal to tap into the EU’s defence for loan scheme, the UK is now on a charm offensive to secure “Made in Europe” access for its industry.
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UK Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle is in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday to press the case for UK involvement in the European preference scheme the Commission is drafting, as speculation circulates that it will be limited to EU countries only.
“We have a shared challenge on the continent of Europe about economic security,” Kyle told journalists after meeting Commission Vice President Teresa Ribera, adding that “the continent of Europe should come together” to build “resilience” at a time of increasing worldwide economic tensions.
The UK fears Brussels’ push to favour “Made in Europe” products will shut London out of EU public procurement and state aid, escalating post-Brexit trade tensions.
London argues that the EU and UK economies are too deeply intertwined to withstand a strict EU-only European Preference.
The EU’s “Made in Europe” strategy is set to feature in the long-delayed Industrial Accelerator Act, held up for months by divisions among member states and within the European Commission. Baltic and Nordic countries have warned that the plan could curb innovation and restrict access to non-EU technologies, joining Germany in calling for a broad definition of “Made in Europe” that includes the bloc’s “trusted” trade partners.
France, by contrast, wants to limit eligibility to members of the European Economic Area – including Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland – as well as countries with reciprocal procurement agreements with the EU.
Limits of participation
London has previously sought to secure preferential access to the EU’s €150-billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence loan scheme – so far, to no avail.
That programme also contains a European preference, with member states required to ensure that at least two-thirds of the weapon systems they buy using loaned EU money are manufactured in an EU or EEA/EFTA country or Ukraine. Third-country participation is capped at 35%.
Talks to bring the UK to the same level as a member state collapsed last November when they failed to find a compromise over how much London would have to contribute financially.
Euronews understands that those talks fell apart over a major gap between the two sides: whereas the final offer on the table from the EU was around €2 billion, the UK estimated it ought to contribute just over €100 million.
But the UK also wants to participate in the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, two-thirds of which is earmarked for military assistance.
Starmer said last month that “whether it’s SAFE or other initiatives, it makes good sense for Europe in the widest sense of the word – which is the EU plus other European countries – to work more closely together.”
But the British premier is walking a difficult political tightrope. His Labour party is consistently polling several points behind the right-wing populist Reform UK, led by arch-Brexiteer Nigel Farage.
Yet, a recent YouGov poll showed that a majority of British people (58%) now believe that it was wrong for the UK to leave the EU, with 54% supporting rejoining the bloc. An even bigger majority – 62% – support having a closer relationship without rejoining the EU, the Single Market, or the Customs Union.
Brussels, however, has always been clear that the UK cannot pick and choose privileged access to the Single Market without accepting the EU’s “four freedoms”: the full freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people – the latter of which would feed into Farage’s anti-immigration platform.
A MUMMY influencer lifted the lid on how much social media stars actually earn for their content.
On Tiktok, Charli Wooley documents her life with her hubby and young children, and also her incredible shopping hauls and skincare routine.
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TikToker Charli Wooley poke about how much she earns on TikTokCredit: tiktok/@charli0191She went viral in 2024 after sharing a compilation of her husband scaring their sonCredit: tiktok/@charli0191The video got 22.2 million viewsCredit: tiktok/@charli0191
The mum-of-two has 89,000 followers on TikTok with a combined 9.8 million likes across her hundreds of videos.
In late 2024, Charli went viral thanks to her hilarious video showing a compilation of her husband scaring their oldest son.
The video has 2.9 million likes and racked up a whopping 22.2 million views.
She recently made a video speaking to the camera where she explained exactly how much she earned for going viral and explained she had joined TikTok’s Creator Fund, which pays content creators for their views.
To join the program TikTokers must be 18 or older, have a minimum of 10,000 followers, a minimum of 100,000 views within 30 days of the video upload and run an account that follows TikTok Community Guidelines.
“So, I had a video that got 22.2 million views and I earned £3,500 from it,” Charli explained but then went into detail about how the rate of pay is calculated.
She told how TikTok pays a ‘rate per minute (RPM)’, but that rate change depending what time of the month the video is viewed.
“When it gets to near the end of the month in the Creator Fund, the RPM seems to drop. So if you do a video from the first to the 15th, my RPMs are normally about 50p, but when it gets past the 15th, it drops,” Charli said.
“And I think I did this video just after the RPM was lower and I’m pretty sure my RPM was only 20p. So, if my RPM would have been 50p, it would have been so much more but I’m super grateful anyway for what I got.”
Charli continued by saying “I would definitely advise joining” the Creator Fund because “it’s ridiculous that you can get that much money from one video.”
According to the TikTok official website, the Creator Fund “gives TikTok’s best and brightest the opportunity to earn money with their creative talent.”
While it is not a grant or ad revenue program, the Creator Fund provides payment to qualified TikTokers based on a “variety of factors” across their content.
“We want all creators to have the opportunity to earn money doing what they love and turn their passion into a livelihood,” the website continues.
With no limit on the number of qualified TikTokers who can join the fund, payments may increase or decrease at different times throughout one’s run on the platform.
Some factors affecting the funds a qualified TikToker may earn include number of authentic views per video, the amount of engagement, and whether or not the work falls within the Community Guidelines.
Charli said she earned a little more than £3,000 for the TikTokCredit: tiktok/@charli0191
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Article content
Strong margin improvement to 16.3% in FY 2025
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Positive growth outlook with continued margin expansion in 2026
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New EUR 200 million share buyback
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COURBEVOIE, France — Bureau Veritas (BOURSE:BVI):
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2
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025 key figures
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1
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› Full-year revenue of EUR 6,466.4 million, up 6.5% organically (with 6.3% organic growth in Q4). At constant currency, the growth was up 7.3% year-on-year and up 3.6% on a reported basis,
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› Adjusted operating profit of EUR 1,052.9 million, up 5.7% versus EUR 996.2 million in FY 2024, representing an adjusted operating margin of 16.3%, up 32 basis points year-on-year and up 51 basis points at constant currency,
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› Operating profit of EUR 992.4 million, up 6.3% versus EUR 933.4 million in FY 2024,
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› Adjusted net profit of EUR 631.4 million, up 1.7% versus EUR 620.7 million in FY 2024,
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› Adjusted EPS stood at EUR 1.42 in 2025, with a 2.8% increase versus FY 2024 (EUR 1.38 per share) and up 9.2% at constant currency,
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› Attributable net profit of EUR 588.0 million, up 3.3% versus EUR 569.4 million in FY 2024,
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› Free Cash Flow of EUR 824.2 million, up 3.9% organically and up 2.6% at constant currency, and cash conversion of 107%2,
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› Adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.1x as of December 31, 2025, slightly up versus last year,
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› Proposed dividend of EUR 0.92 per share3, up 2.2% year-on-year, payable in full in cash.
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2025 highlights
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› 2025 financial targets of revenue, margin and cash met or exceeded,
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› Strong drivers of portfolio organic growth from higher energy investments, from the ongoing buildup of digital infrastructure and from clients demand for corporate and enterprise risk assessment solutions,
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› Progressive LEAP I 28 strategy execution in its second year yielding tangible impact on operational leverage and functional scalability,
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› New organization implementation to accelerate strategy execution,
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› Portfolio refocusing continues with nine bolt-on acquisitions, and two divestments in non-core areas closed. These acquisitions added EUR 96 million in annualized revenue and support LEAP I 28 portfolio priorities of: i) Strengthening leadership positions in Buildings & Infrastructure; ii) Creating new strongholds in Power & Utilities and Renewables, Cybersecurity, and in Sustainability and iii) Optimizing value and impact in mature businesses; in Consumer Product Services and in Metals & Minerals. Year-to-date, three more bolt-on deals have been closed, contributing to c. EUR 5 million in annualized revenue,
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› Double-digit shareholder returns based on EPS growth of c. 9% at constant currency, a dividend yield of c. 3% and enhanced by a EUR 200 million share buyback program (representing c. 1.5% of outstanding share capital).
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2026 outlook
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Bureau Veritas is starting the third year of LEAP I 28 strategy with sound market fundamentals. Building on a strong 2025 performance, the Group aims to deliver full year results for 2026 aligned with the financial ambition outlined in its strategy:
› Improvement in adjusted operating margin at constant exchange rates,
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› Strong cash flow generation.
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Hinda Gharbi, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
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“2025 was a year of solid progress for Bureau Veritas, with sector leading organic growth, strong margin expansion, and a disciplined execution of our LEAP | 28 strategy. I want to thank all our colleagues worldwide for their strong commitment and personal contributions.
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In this passing year, the second of our strategic plan, we delivered results fully in line with our ambition to accelerate growth and enhance returns, supported by a strengthened portfolio and a tangible impact from our performance programs.
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We again achieved double‑digit shareholder returns at constant currency, reflecting both the quality of our portfolio and the effectiveness of our strategy. With our new organizational structure now almost complete, we are better equipped to scale our product lines’ services within our regional platforms, drive cross‑selling, and elevate our customer service and stickiness.
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As we start 2026, we remain focused on executing our growth and margin improvement plans, confident in the resilience of our evolving portfolio and in our ability to generate superior, sustainable value over the mid and long term. We are continuing to improve shareholder returns and will be launching a new EUR 200 million share buyback program, without hindering our M&A plans.”
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2025 KEY FIGURES
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On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors of Bureau Veritas approved the financial statements for the full year 2025. The main consolidated financial items are:
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IN EUR MILLION
2025
2024
CHANGE
CONSTANT CURRENCY
Revenue
6,466.4
6,240.9
+3.6%
+7.3%
Adjusted operating profit(a)
1,052.9
996.2
+5.7%
+10.8%
Adjusted operating margin(a)
16.3%
16.0%
+32bps
+51bps
Operating profit
992.4
933.4
+6.3%
+11.2%
Adjusted net profit(a)
631.4
620.7
+1.7%
+8.1%
Attributable net profit
588.0
569.4
+3.3%
+9.3%
Adjusted EPS(a)
1.42
1.38
+2.8%
+9.2%
EPS
1.32
1.27
+4.3%
+10.4%
Operating cash-flow
1,006.7
1,004.8
+0.2%
+4.6%
Free cash flow(a)
824.2
843.3
(2.3)%
+2.6%
Adjusted net financial debt(a)
1,253.3
1,226.3
+2.2%
(a) Alternative performance indicators are presented, defined, and reconciled with IFRS in appendices 6 and 8 of this press release
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2025 HIGHLIGHTS
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2025 financial targets achieved with some exceeding expectations
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› Mid-to-high single digit organic revenue growth in the full year Group revenue in 2025 increased by 6.5% organically compared to 2024, including 6.3% in the fourth quarter, benefiting from underlying robust market trends across businesses and geographies.
Emerging markets are roaring back in 2026, staging a rally that has surprised investors not only for its speed — unmatched in decades — but also for the broader global context in which it is unfolding.
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While US software stocks reel from artificial intelligence disruption fears and the S&P 500 remains broadly flat year-to-date, emerging markets are decoupling.
In a reversal of long-standing market dynamics, the asset class is briefly playing an unexpected role: that of a relative safe haven.
The rally is broad, persistent and increasingly supported by flows, macro conditions and structural shifts in global trade.
Emerging markets dominate global performance rankings
Data from CountryETFTracker show that the five best-performing country-specific exchange traded funds so far this year all belong to emerging markets.
Leading the rally is South Korea’s iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), up 43.28% year-to-date after a 96% surge in 2025.
The gains reflect the dominance of chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from strong global demand for AI-related memory and advanced semiconductors, lifting exports and corporate earnings.
It is followed by Peru’s iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU), which has gained 25.31%, Brazil’s iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) at 22.03%, Thailand (THD) at 21.38% and Turkey (TUR) at 21.32%.
The broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index, tracked by the iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM), is up nearly 13% year-to-date.
Two elements stand out here: the scale of the relative strength and the remarkable consistency of the rally.
Over the past two months, EEM has achieved the strongest relative surge against the S&P 500 since 2008. Over 12 months, the performance gap has widened to 25 percentage points — the largest divergence since January 2010.
Emerging markets have also recorded 13 positive months out of the last 14 and closed higher for nine consecutive weeks — a streak not seen since 2005.
There is, unmistakably, a structural trend under way.
Record inflows toward geographic capital reallocation
The rally is not only price-driven but also flow-driven.
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF attracted more than $4bn (€3.7bn) in January 2026, its strongest month for inflows since 2015.
South Korea alone drew $1.6bn (€1.5bn) in January and over $1bn (€0.9bn) in February, while Brazil attracted nearly $1bn (€0.9bn) in January.
The surge in allocations suggests that institutional investors are actively increasing exposure to emerging markets.
Importantly, flows appear broad-based rather than concentrated in a single thematic trade.
While Asia-focused markets have benefited from AI supply-chain positioning, Latin American funds have drawn support from commodities and cyclical exposure.
Why is this happening?
1) Rotation away from crowded US tech
Much of 2026’s market narrative has centred on artificial intelligence disruption, particularly in long-duration US software stocks.
After years of heavy concentration in mega-cap American technology names, investors are reassessing exposure as valuations look stretched and volatility rises.
Emerging markets, by contrast, began the year trading at sizeable discounts to developed peers.
Capital is rotating away from crowded US growth trades into cyclicals, commodities and regions directly exposed to AI hardware demand.
Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research highlighted that while the US economy still remains exceptional, emerging economies benefit from expanding middle classes, rising industrial output and export growth that increasingly outpaces advanced economies.
2) Dollar weakness supports emerging markets
Currency dynamics are reinforcing the move towards emerging markets.
Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, indicates that the US Dollar Index is close to breaking its long-term uptrend, with expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts adding pressure.
Central banks’ gradual diversification away from the US dollar towards gold, alongside a persistent US trade deficit that continues to expand the global supply of dollars, is also exerting downward pressure on the greenback.
For emerging markets, a softer dollar eases financing conditions and improves relative returns.
Bank of America strategist David Hauner describes the near-certainty of the next Fed move being a cut as a ‘volatility compressor’ — a backdrop that has historically supported EM assets.
3) AI hardware boom supports Asia
While AI concerns weigh on US software, the hardware backbone of artificial intelligence is largely produced in Asia.
Taiwan dominates advanced semiconductor production, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics remains a global leader in memory chips.
In Taiwan, technology-related goods now account for roughly 80% of exports and the bulk of recent growth. Revenue at TSMC continues to track the island’s export momentum, with analysts expecting another year of solid expansion in 2026.
4) Commodities and cyclicals add further support
The strength is not confined to technology exporters. Commodity-linked economies such as Brazil and Peru are benefiting from firm metals and agricultural demand, while Thailand and Turkey are gaining from improved financial conditions and cyclical recovery dynamics.
Against a backdrop of stabilising global growth and easing US monetary policy expectations, emerging markets combining export momentum with improving external balances are regaining investor attention.
Why this matters
The resurgence of emerging markets is more than a short-term performance story.
After a decade dominated by US exceptionalism, the current rally points to a potential broadening of global leadership — driven by currency dynamics, shifting capital flows and the geography of AI-driven production.
If sustained, the move could reshape portfolio allocations and challenge the long-standing concentration of global equity returns in a narrow group of US mega-cap stocks.
![A customer pays for groceries using bank account transactions [Ola al-Asi/ Al Jazeera]](https://i0.wp.com/www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/When-money-is-scarce-every-choice-counts-bank-cash-or-on-credit.-1772105832.jpg?w=640&ssl=1)
![Abdallah Sukkar, owner of a street grocery stall, writing down customers' details in a notebook [Ola al-Asi/ Al Jazeera]](https://i0.wp.com/www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/When-money-is-scarce-every-choice-counts-bank-cash-or-on-credit-2-1772105835.jpg?w=640&ssl=1)
![People purchasing goods at a grocery shop at Al-Zawya market [Ola al-Asi/ Al Jazeera]](https://i0.wp.com/www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/When-money-is-scarce-every-choice-counts-bank-cash-or-on-credit.-1772105810.jpg?w=640&ssl=1)
