Chris Weafer, the CEO of Micro-Advisory Partners, says the UAE’s OPEC exit frees one million barrels of spare capacity. He warns Kazakhstan and Venezuela may follow, leaving OPEC far less influential on global oil pricing.
Published On 30 Apr 202630 Apr 2026
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Oil markets face renewed instability following the United Arab Emirates’ formal exit from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance (OPEC+), announced on Tuesday and taking effect on Friday.
The move, which ends decades of membership, comes as the global economy continues to reel from the ongoing war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.
Investors are currently weighing the potential for higher future output from the UAE against the immediate and acute risks posed to global supply routes, as well as the increased chances that more countries drop out of OPEC and OPEC+.
Following the announcement, markets reacted swiftly as the potential for oversupply from the UAE was priced in. Oil prices fell by between 2% and 3%, particularly in futures contracts a couple of months ahead.
However, the move was just as quickly offset by the risk premium associated with the Middle East conflict and the current halt to US-Iran negotiations.
At the time of writing, US benchmark crude, WTI, is trading above $105 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, is over $112. Both prices are around 4% higher on Wednesday from the UAE announcement low.
The UAE’s decision follows years of simmering tension between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over production quotas. The UAE has invested over $150 billion (€128bn) in the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to expand its capacity to five million barrels per day.
However, under OPEC’s restrictive framework, much of this capacity remained underutilised, now prompting the government to prioritise its national interest.
The departure of the group’s third-largest producer is a significant blow to the cohesion of the 60-year-old organisation. Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, noted the limitations this exit places on the remaining members.
“Until tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is safe again, OPEC’s ability to stabilise prices is sharply constrained, while US producers have gained outsized influence,” Carulli explained.
While the UAE has pledged to bring additional production to the market in a “gradual and measured” manner, the sudden lack of coordination within OPEC has introduced a new layer of uncertainty.
For the UAE, the blockade served as a final catalyst for its exit. With its primary export route under threat, Abu Dhabi has sought the diplomatic flexibility to forge independent security and trade partnerships outside the traditional cartel structure.
Despite the geopolitical turmoil, energy equities have remained resilient.
According to Carulli, “integrated majors such as BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, ENI, Chevron and ExxonMobil are benefitting from a price uplift that could add 5-10% to operating cash flow for every $10 increase in oil prices.”
In a separate but related development, the security situation in the Middle East remains precarious despite a fragile ceasefire. Iran has recently offered a ten-point proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange for restoring maritime traffic, Tehran is demanding a full withdrawal of the US naval blockade and an end to the current hostilities.
US President Donald Trump, who recently extended the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, described the latest Iranian offer as “much better” than previous iterations but still did not accept the terms.
Shortly after, Trump posted on social media claiming that Iran is in a dire and desperate condition with no leverage to negotiate.
Washington continues to insist on a permanent settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and an “unconditional” reopening of the waterway before sanctions are lifted.
The impact of this blockade on global energy security cannot be overstated.
“The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 12% of global oil supply from the market, according to the IEA, a bigger disruption than the Yom Kippur war, the Iran‑Iraq conflict, the invasion of Kuwait or even the fallout from Ukraine,” Carulli highlighted.
A HUGE new “world class new visit destination” is set to open in the UK.
Xanadoo is a new indoor attraction concept that has been designed by some of the people behind the Eden Project.
They claim it will be “unlike any other museum” with massive playgrounds, art areas and food halls, as well as being educational.
When guests arrive, the will be a market hall with food and drink stalls.
The first area is the “Road to Happiness” with a series of art installations along the way.
Then there is “The Gallery of Marvellous Situations” which they say will take people “back in time” using immersive experiences.
The Playground in the third area, with images showing slides, a huge helter skelter, climbing structures, mazes, and even a life-size snakes and ladders.
Then in the fourth area is “Tomorrow’s World” with futuristic designs showing the world in hundreds of years time.
“Call to Action” is the final area, which has a life-size “game” with levers and dials that show the impact on the current world.
The entire attraction ‘will bring “science and art” together, and be for all ages.
The cost of the project hasn’t been revealed, but it is thought that £840million will be brought to the local economy, they predict.
They hope it will encourage year-round visitors, including families and school trips as well as locals.
Where it will be built is also yet to be revealed, although they are looking at locations across South Wales.
Gaynor Coley, co-founder of the Eden Project, told local media: “We believe Xanadoo can do the same for South Wales as the Eden Project did for Cornwall.
“An economic impact assessment has just been carried out and it has bought £6 billion to Cornwall and the West Country which is more than the whole of European funding and we’d like to do the same for South Wales.
“It will bring sustainable tourism, support hospitality and creativity, storytelling, digital and health and wellbeing.”
Eden Project opened in Cornwall back in 2020, and remains the only one of its kind.
However, a second site – Eden Project Morecambe – is set to open next year.
Other planned Eden Projects include Scotland as well as Costa Rica, China and Australia.
And another huge indoor attraction set to open in the UK is Therme Manchester, a massive water resort with pools, slides and spas.
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Germany’s Dax, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB and the UK’s FTSE 100 are expected to open in the green, according to IG data, despite peace talks between the US and Iran coming to a halt.
The White House called off plans to send envoys to Pakistan for more negotiations and US President Donald Trump cited a lack of progress over the weekend.
“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”
In addition to monitoring progress in the Middle East, investors will also be keeping across central bank decisions this week, including from the ECB and Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, markets were mixed overnight in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh record, surging 1.4% to 60,564.18. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.1% to 6,617.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower to 25,951.86 and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2% at 4,089.04. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,759.40.
Taiwan’s Taiex rallied 2.6%, helped by a revival of buying of tech shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.
In other dealings early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude to be delivered in July, rose $1.44 to $100.57, while US benchmark crude oil added $1.28 to $95.65.
The dollar fell to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59. The euro climbed to $1.1723 from $1.1701.
U.S. oil sanctions swings add uncertainty for markets, global trade
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Météo-France has initiated an inquiry to determine whether the meteorological infrastructure managed by them was targeted by individuals seeking to influence prediction markets.
This development follows reports of highly unusual temperature spikes that triggered significant financial payouts on the blockchain-based site Polymarket, where users place wagers on real-world events.
Investigators are examining if the integrity of the national weather network was breached through physical or digital interference, as the precision of the winning bets suggests the actors involved may have had direct control over the reported data.
Online rumors, which remain unverified for the time being, claim the temperature reading was manipulated by someone using a hair dryer to generate a higher temperature.
Polymarket reportedly settles Paris temperature bets on a single Météo-France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle airport perimeter.
On 6 April, the reading from the sensor abruptly rose 4°C in twelve minutes, crossing the 22°C threshold despite data from other sources showing different figures.
A user on Polymarket aggressively bet on readings above 21°C on that specific day, even though the consensus was lower at 18°C, and profited almost €30,000.
A second similar anomaly occurred on 19 April leading to suspicions that the sensor was tampered with.
Météo-France announced that it has filed a complaint with the Roissy air transport gendarmerie brigade “for [the] alteration of the operation of an automated data processing system,” after an analysis of sensor data.
Polymarket suspended its reliance on the compromised weather data source for Paris, shifting its resolution metric from the sensor in Charles de Gaulle airport to the one in Paris-Le Bourget airport.
However, it did not cancel the contracts or refund the bets, leaving the resolved contracts final, even though on previous occasions it has suspended the resolution of certain bets until further clarification on the rules and circumstances.
This incident has reignited the debate over the reliability of the “oracles” that feed data to prediction markets in order to settle bets.
In decentralised finance, an oracle is the mechanism that feeds external, real-world information into a smart contract to determine a financial outcome.
Polymarket relies on these feeds to settle its contracts, often pulling data directly from official government websites. If the primary source of that data is corrupted, the betting market lacks any internal mechanism to verify the truth.
Additionally, the decentralised nature of these platforms makes it difficult to freeze assets even if an investigation identifies the individuals behind suspicious trades.
This is the latest case that highlights a new frontier of white-collar crime, where the manipulation of the physical world is used to exploit the vulnerabilities of automated prediction markets in order to win bets on real-world events.
Published on •Updated
Oil prices edged slightly higher, European indices traded flat, while Asian markets surged on Tuesday morning as investors monitored potential US-Iran negotiations and the final 48 hours of the current ceasefire.
At the time of writing, US benchmark crude was up 8.5% from last Friday’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was around 9.5% higher at roughly $94.5 a barrel.
As for European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 were trading within a 0.2% range.
The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were all similarly trading within a 0.3% range.
On Wall Street, US futures were also all trading within a 0.3% range with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower by 0.2% on Monday at 7109 points.
Despite US representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, travelling to Islamabad as part of renewed efforts to secure an agreement, no concrete progress on US-Iran negotiations has been announced.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the current ceasefire ends on Wednesday keeping markets in a state of uncertainty.
US President Donald Trump has asserted that the deal currently being negotiated will be better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed by US President Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018.
Following the arrival of US representatives to Islamabad there has been no developments on the negotiations with Iran.
Even though US President Donald Trump confidently declared that there is a historic deal in the works, public statements from major Iranian figures seem to indicate otherwise.
Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and the person previously heading the talks with the US, made sweeping declarations via X on Monday stating that the country will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and “has prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.
Previously, other Iranian representatives have also described US demands as “excessive”.
For the time being, markets eagerly await developments and are highly sensitive to any headlines about the situation.
Although European markets are trading flat, major news in the retail consumer sector has come out of the UK.
Associated British Foods (ABF) is poised to announce the outcome this week of a strategic review into demerging its fast-fashion retail arm Primark, from its diversified food business.
The conglomerate, controlled by the billionaire Weston family, has been working with advisers from Rothschild & Co to assess whether the split would maximise long-term shareholder value.
Analysts argue the move makes sense because of the limited operational synergies between the two divisions: the food arm generates steady cash flows from brands such as Twinings, Patak’s, Jordans cereals and Allied Bakeries, while Primark has pursued aggressive international expansion in a fiercely competitive retail sector.
The decision comes as ABF faces tough trading conditions, with the group warning in January of flat annual sales and declining profits, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, including potential increases in petrochemical prices.
European stock markets slipped on Monday as investor sentiment weakened amid renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. The downturn followed the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship by US forces and Tehran’s vow of retaliation, raising fears that a fragile ceasefire nearing its expiry may collapse.
The situation has been further complicated by Iran’s rejection of fresh peace talks and ongoing uncertainty over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.8%, reflecting broad-based caution across financial markets. Major indices also moved lower, with Germany’s DAX down 1% and France’s CAC 40 falling 0.9%.
Losses were concentrated in sectors sensitive to geopolitical risk. Travel and leisure stocks led declines, followed by banking and automobile shares, which also came under pressure. In contrast, energy stocks rose as oil prices surged, reflecting concerns about supply disruptions.
Crude oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent crude rising more than 5% to around $95 a barrel. The increase reflects heightened fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global energy trade passes.
Energy-dependent European economies remain particularly sensitive to price volatility, adding to investor caution across broader markets.
Market sentiment shifted sharply from the previous week’s optimism, when easing signals from the Strait of Hormuz had briefly boosted equities. That optimism faded quickly after renewed maritime incidents and political escalation.
The United States and Iran continue to exchange accusations over ceasefire violations, while diplomatic efforts appear increasingly uncertain. The rejection of fresh negotiations by Iran and continued US pressure have added to concerns that the conflict could intensify further.
Financial markets remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East. With the ceasefire approaching its expiration and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, volatility is expected to persist.
Investors are likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity on both maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of US–Iran relations.
With information from Reuters.
The benchmark US equity indices surged to new territory entering price discovery, reflecting a market that appears to be looking past immediate geopolitical risks in favour of potential de-escalation and corporate strength.
On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed 0.8% higher at 7,022 points, up on the day and surpassing its previous peak from January of this year.
The S&P 500 is now 11% higher since it bottomed on 30 March and after it first dropped 9% during last month.
The Nasdaq Composite also posted a record, rising 1.6% to over 24,000 points while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.15% lower and continues significantly below its all-time high.
The advance comes despite persistent headwinds.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been severely disrupted since late February following Iranian actions and a subsequent US naval blockade.
Traffic has dropped sharply, with Iran declaring the strait closed to vessels linked to the US, Israel and their allies.
The US Central Command also confirmed its blockade of Iranian ports took full effect earlier this week, stating that “ten vessels have now been turned around and ZERO ships have broken through since the start of the US blockade on Monday”.
Oil prices, while easing in the last two weeks, remain elevated.
At the time of writing, Brent crude stands at around $96.5 per barrel and WTI at $92.5, still well above pre-war levels and contributing to inflationary concerns.
The International Monetary Fund has responded by lowering its global growth outlook. In its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Monday, the IMF cut the 2026 forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously projected, citing energy price spikes and supply disruptions.
Headline inflation is now seen at 4.4% for the year, under a reference scenario assuming a short-lived conflict, with risks of even weaker growth and higher prices if tensions escalate and prolong.
The modest decline in energy prices followed reports that the two-week ceasefire is holding and that fresh talks between the US and Iran could resume soon.
US President Donald Trump also indicated that negotiations for lasting peace might restart by the end of the week.
Investors appear to be pricing in an eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a contained negative impact of the war in general.
Speaking to Euronews, Alan McIntosh, chief investment officer of Quilter Cheviot Europe, explained that “although the first round of talks led to no agreement, a likely extension of the ceasefire gives optimism that an early resolution can be reached”.
“Assuming a fairly swift end to hostilities and a resumption of oil shipments, the economic damage to global inflation and growth should be fairly limited,” he added.
Analysts point to several factors behind the market resilience.
Hopes of a swift end to hostilities have encouraged risk-taking, while corporate America is showing strength. Bank executives highlighted a strong US consumer and a healthy pipeline for deals and initial public offerings.
Earnings expectations for the first quarter have been revised higher, with S&P 500 companies now forecast to report combined profits of over $605 billion (€513bn), up from earlier estimates.
Tech shares, particularly those linked to AI, provided additional support. The Nasdaq’s outsized gain reflected renewed enthusiasm for growth-oriented stocks even as broader economic projections softened.
McIntosh told Euronews that “the capital spending boost relating to AI shows no sign of slowing down so this continues to support US economic growth. We have just started the US quarterly results season and so far there is limited evidence of a negative impact from the current Middle East conflict”.
The indices also include defence companies that have all performed well with the war in the backdrop pushing governments, in particular the US, to increase military budgets.
History also offers context for the current rebound. In past US-involved wars, equity markets have frequently experienced short-term volatility followed by recovery and gains.
During the 2003 Iraq War, for example, the S&P 500 rose over 25% in the first full year after the invasion began.
The Gulf War of 1990-1991 saw an initial 11% decline in the index, but a strong relief rally followed the swift coalition victory, delivering positive returns in the subsequent year.
Similar patterns emerged in the Korean War and Vietnam War eras, where stocks posted solid long-term advances despite prolonged uncertainty.
Data compiled by the Royal Bank of Canada and other sources indicate that, across multiple conflicts, equities rose in the first year of hostilities around 60% of the time.
Markets have tended to focus on eventual outcomes rather than immediate shocks, rewarding resolution and economic adaptability. The latest record for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq underscore this enduring pattern.
While risks remain if the Iran conflict worsens, investors are currently betting that diplomacy and corporate fundamentals will prevail.
European stocks were mostly steady on Wednesday as investors weighed signals from Washington that a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran war could be imminent.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 had ticked down 0.1%, Germany’s Dax edged 0.11% higher and the FTSE 100 climbed 0.11%. The CAC 40 in France fell by a slightly greater margin, at 0.65%.
US President Donald Trump said fresh talks between Washington and Tehran “could be happening over the next two days” in Islamabad, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough, and added that the war was “very close to over” — despite continued uncertainty over key sticking points in negotiations.
Asian markets were broadly higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.5%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped 3.0% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.7%.
The Shanghai Composite added 0.2%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, up less than 0.1%.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to its gains from the previous day, and the index at the heart of many 401(k) accounts is now just 0.2% below its record set in January.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317 points, or 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2%.
On Wednesday, benchmark US crude inched up by 1 cent to $91.29 a barrel.
Brent crude added 48 cents to $95.27, or less than 1%, after falling 4.6% the previous day. While that is still above its roughly $70 level from before the war began in late February, it remains well below the peak of $119.
Lower oil prices help reduce costs for businesses across the economy. However, some analysts noted that the war is still ongoing, warning that the optimism may prove unfounded.
“The counterintuitive decline in crude appears driven by growing hopes that a second round of peace talks between Washington and Tehran could soon materialise, after the first attempt fizzled out,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“Traders are clearly choosing to price in the possibility of de-escalation rather than the immediate reality of restricted flows,” he added.
Asian nations depend on access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that is the main route for crude oil produced in the Persian Gulf to reach customers worldwide. Disruptions there have kept oil off the global market, driving up prices.
Global inflation this year is expected to accelerate to 4.4% from 4.1% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, which had previously forecast a slowdown to 3.8%.
The IMF also downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% this year, from 3.3% projected in January.
Overall, the S&P 500 rose 81.14 points to 6,967.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 317.74 points to 48,535.99, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 455.35 points to 23,639.08.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased as falling oil prices reduced inflationary pressure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.30% late Monday.
In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.03 Japanese yen from 158.79 yen. The euro stood at $1.1780, down from $1.1797.
US stocks climbed to the brink of a record high on Tuesday, while oil prices eased as hopes grew that Washington and Tehran may resume talks to end their war.
The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, leaving it just 0.2% below its January peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2%, tracking broader global market gains.
Investors are betting that renewed diplomacy could prevent a prolonged surge in oil prices and inflation, allowing focus to return to corporate earnings.
Brent crude for June delivery fell 4.6% to $94.79, down from recent highs, though still above pre-war levels.
However, volatility remains high, with markets sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply.
Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee: Inflation shocks from the energy markets crisis will delay interest rates in 2026
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Trading on Tuesday began with high expectations that the Iran war is inching to a close, fuelling gains across major stock markets and pushing oil back under $100 a barrel.
Investors remained hopeful for a lasting de-escalation of the conflict, now in its seventh week, as the US and Iran are said to be weighing a second round of talks before a temporary ceasefire agreement expires next week.
The US military on Monday began a blockade of Iranian ports as Washington steps up pressure on Tehran, following weekend ceasefire talks between the two sides that ended without agreement.
Trump also suggested on Monday that the United States is still willing to engage with Tehran.
“I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side,” he said, without elaborating further.
Oil prices continued to pull back on Tuesday from earlier gains.
Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.8% at $98.62 per barrel, nearing 8 am CET.
It reached nearly $104 early on Monday amid Iran war concerns and limited progress in weekend ceasefire talks.
Benchmark US crude fell 1.7% early Tuesday to $97.40 a barrel.
The global energy shock stemming from maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil is typically transported, has led to surging fuel prices and threatens to push up inflation in many countries and weigh on economic growth.
Investors were quick to recover after the dismal first trading day on Monday. Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street gains.
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to 6,004.30.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 25,759.75, while the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,010.45.
This comes as China on Tuesday reported worse-than-expected export growth.
The world’s second-largest economy expanded its exports by 2.5% in March year on year, significantly slower than the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand.
The March data missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded in January and February.
Wall Street rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.
Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 1.9% despite the investment bank posting better-than-expected quarterly profits.
In other trading, gold and silver prices rose on Tuesday. Gold was up 0.6% at $4,796.60 (€4,219.62) an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $77.05 (€67.80) per ounce.
The US dollar fell to ¥159.08 from ¥159.45. The euro was trading at $1.1766, up from $1.1759.
Relief for global markets comes after Trump says Iranian officials are keen on a deal.
Published On 14 Apr 202614 Apr 2026
Asia’s main stock markets have surged, and oil prices have declined amid renewed hopes for ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.
The relief for global markets on Tuesday came after US President Donald Trump said overnight that Iranian officials had reached out to his administration and expressed their openness to a deal.
list of 4 itemsend of list
“We’ve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly,” Trump said in remarks at the White House.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose as much as 2.5 percent on Tuesday, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 3.7 percent.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed about 0.6 percent.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up about 0.4 percent in the early afternoon, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai was about 0.5 percent higher.
The rally in Asia followed gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500 finishing up 1 percent overnight.
Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, dipped nearly 1.5 percent, falling below $98 a barrel.
The positive turn for markets came despite the US following through on its threat to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that analysts warn is likely to exacerbate the energy shortage that is roiling the global economy.
Brent had surged above $103 per barrel after Trump on Sunday threatened to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.
The US military later clarified that the blockade would only apply to vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, in an apparent scaling back of Trump’s threat to fully close the waterway.
Iran has effectively halted shipping through the strait since the start of the war on February 28, throwing the global energy market into a tailspin.
Only 21 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, according to maritime intelligence provider Windward, compared with roughly 130 daily transits before the start of the conflict.
Suphanat Khumsap
Global investors are increasingly focused on the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, as geopolitical tensions intensify following Washington’s indication that it may enforce a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports.
The narrow waterway—one of the world’s most critical energy and
The Budapest Stock Exchange jumped over 3% to a record high of more than 136,000 points on Monday as markets priced in the end of 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s time in power and the potential return of Hungary to a more mainstream European path.
Increased investor appetite pushed the country’s largest listed companies, including OTP Bank, MOL, Richter, and Magyar Telekom to gain between 2%-5% by 1 p.m. CET.
The move contrasts with broader European markets, which are trading lower, digesting the failure of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend with no indication of further talks.
At the election on Sunday, Péter Magyar’s Tisza party secured 138 seats in the 199-seat Hungarian parliament, securing a supermajority and fuelling expectations of a seismic shift in the country’s politics.
Magyar, a former Orbán ally turned fierce critic, has promised to restore democratic checks and balances and unlock €17 billion in EU funds frozen over democratic backsliding under Orbán’s government.
This could be accompanied by access to low-cost loans for defence and infrastructure, fuelling the fragile growth of the Hungarian economy.
Speaking to Euronews, Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets strategist at RBC Global Asset Management, explained that “the market is reacting to a combination of uncertainty dissipating, as there was a real concern of election results being contested, and renewed optimism for policy changes that should align Europe”.
“Magyar will need better relations with the EU. There are lots of structural funds that will probably get released, and the market knows the economic policy team well,” he added.
Ash also said that the likely pick of András Kármán as the new finance minister, “a very credible person,” will further stabilise the country’s near-term growth.
Kármán is currently Tisza’s economic advisor and previously served as a member of the board of directors at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Investors appear to view the result as removing a long-standing political risk premium that had weighed on Hungarian assets.
The two-thirds parliamentary majority secured by Tisza will allow swift legislative changes, including the potential removal of sector-specific windfall taxes that had squeezed banks, energy firms and retailers.
Morgan Stanley and other analysts have noted that such a shift could lift Hungary’s GDP growth potential by 1 to 1.5% in the coming years through higher investment and restored EU transfers.
The Hungarian currency joined the rally, climbing to its strongest level against the euro in more than four years.
The EUR/HUF rate fell to 366.64, its lowest since April 2022, while the forint also gained sharply against the US dollar.
Market observers attribute the currency’s strength to expectations of reduced political uncertainty and renewed foreign capital inflows once EU funds resume.
However, Ash explained to Euronews that “Hungary has a very high real rate compared to, say, Poland. I think the central bank has maintained very high real rates because of political risk”.
“They were very concerned about maybe the currency weakening around elections, but are very eager to have a stable currency.”
Last month, the National Bank of Hungary held its benchmark rate at 6.25%, whereas in Poland, for example, it is currently steady at 3.75%.
“Maybe we’ll see a normalisation of real rates in Hungary towards [those closer to] Poland, and that means rate cuts, probably. Investors will likely focus on rates more than the currency as Hungary will also need economic stimulus to catalyse growth,” Ash added.
AM Markets Need to Know: Iran blockade, tariff threat on China, and more
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Markets face a sobering Monday after weekend optimism over a peace talks breakthrough faded. Investors are bracing for a high-impact week shaped by geopolitics, inflation data and the start of earnings season.
Oil prices resumed their climb, with international benchmark Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI trading above $100 a barrel. On Monday morning in Europe, Brent front-month futures were up 7%, trading at nearly $102 a barrel, while WTI gained nearly 8% and surged to $104.
This comes as the US military prepares to blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the shipping has been disrupted by Iran since the start of the war.
US President Donald Trump announced the planned blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan ended without agreement. The military said the blockade covering all Iranian ports would begin Monday at 10 am CET (5:30 pm local time in Iran).
Oil prices have been climbing as shipping through the Strait has essentially stalled since late February. Brent crude has risen from roughly $70 a barrel before the war to more than $119 at times.
“Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning,” a Deutsche Bank Research analysts said in a note, adding that “the mood has shifted negatively once again.
“Oil prices have revived fears of a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground globally.
The Hungarian forint took the spotlight in currency trading after Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party won a landslide election, ending the 16-year rule of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.
The euro was trading at 366.18 forints before European markets opened on Monday, a sharp drop from 377.56 late Sunday. The Hungarian stock index rose 2.85% on Monday morning, bucking the negative sentiment weighing on markets across the bloc.
Investors see Magyar’s Tisza Party pushing Hungary in a more pro-EU direction, with a higher likelihood of restoring rule-of-law alignment and closer cooperation with Brussels.
Elsewhere in currency markets, the euro weakened against the dollar to $1.1692 in European morning trading. The British pound also fell against the dollar, down 0.3% at $1.3416.
Stock markets in Europe opened in negative territory, with London’s FTSE 100 opening down 0.4%, the DAX in Frankfurt falling 1%, and Paris’s CAC 40 down nearly 0.9%.
Stock markets were also down in Asia on Monday. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 1.0% in morning trading to 56,357.40. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,913.50. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.1% to 5,795.15. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped nearly 1.5% to 25,513.42, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% to 3,976.57.
Analysts said global trading was expected to remain turbulent for some time.
“The outcome of the talks was not really what people were hoping for, that’s for certain,” Neil Newman, Managing Director and Head of Strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said in Hong Kong.
“As we stand here at the moment, it doesn’t look very nice. Certainly, the oil prices are a big concern.”
Wall Street ended last week with a second weekly gain in a row. The S&P 500 inched 0.1% lower on Friday after a day of choppy trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. But those gains came amid optimism over weekend peace talks in Pakistan that was later shattered by subsequent developments.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.32% last Friday from 4.29% late Thursday.
In currency trading, the US dollar gained to 159.74 Japanese yen from 159.25 yen. The euro cost $1.1687, down from $1.1729.
Markets are entering a busy week, with all eyes still on developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader implications of the Iran conflict.
In the US, investors are watching the first major wave of corporate earnings reports, including those of big banks and tech companies, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, ASML and TSMC reporting this week.
This is set against a backdrop of key US inflation and producer price data, as well as jobless claims. These figures are critical for gauging whether the Federal Reserve is moving closer to rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington begin this week.
The latest World Economic Outlook from the IMF, out on Tuesday, will also be of interest, and could offer further insight into how these institutions are assessing the global economy’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In Europe, investors are focused on PMI and industrial activity data, which will provide insight into whether the eurozone economy is stabilising or still struggling with weak demand.
Odds of Strait of Hormuz opening plunge on prediction markets
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Vitol trading bet backfires as Iran conflict jolts oil markets: WSJ
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NEW Delhi doesn’t ease you in. Noise and colour come at you from every direction, and it both rewards your curiosity and leaves you exhausted.
One moment you’re weaving through packed markets in a rickshaw, the next you’re sitting in quiet contemplation at the Lotus Temple, which is shaped like an open petal.
Entry is free (Bahaihouseofworship.in).
I also find calm at Crowne Plaza New Delhi Okhla in the south of the city.
Modern design is peppered with subtle Indian touches, and rooms are opulent with light streaming through large windows and bathrooms with big tubs and separate rain showers.
Plus, there’s a rooftop pool, where I take a refreshing dip before tucking into wok-tossed vegetable hakka noodles, £6.50, at the Edesia restaurant.
Come morning, after feasting at the breakfast buffet on an incredible dosa with coconut curd and mouth-watering medu vada (a crunchy, lentil doughnut), a rickshaw ride through the narrow streets of Old Delhi’s Chandni Chowk proves not for the faint-hearted, but essential for soaking up the culture.
I pass street performers walking tightropes, while food vendors fry pakora and kachori at astonishing speed.
Wandering through Khari Baoli, a market dating back to the 17th century, I’m hit by clouds of fragrant spices, before I visit the Red Fort, a magnificent structure built from deep-red sandstone that served as the residence of Mughal emperors for almost 200 years.
Entry costs £4.80 (Asi.nic.in/pages/worldheritageredfort).
The next day, I explore the newer district of the city. Standing proud at the heart of the capital is India Gate, built in 1931 as a memorial to fallen soldiers.
A 10-minute taxi away is the free National Gandhi Museum, which is full of photographs, letters and personal items from Gandhi’s life (Gandhimuseum.org/museum).
And I find I need three hours at the Swaminarayan Akshardham temple, to wander the gardens and explore the exhibitions, which cost just £2.50.
The landmark also comes alive lit up at night with a spectacular fountain show, tickets cost 90p (Akshardham.com).
Hauz Khas Village offers a different rhythm and is a brilliant labyrinth of shops, bars and cafes.
I find Chumbak, an adorable homeware shop filled with playful glassware, notebooks and ornamental plates (Chumbak.com), before unwinding with a masala chai at The Tea Room From Blossom Kochhar (Facebook/Thetearoomhkv).
After a stroll around the calm of Deer Park, home to monkeys, peacocks and a handful of spotted deer, I catch the sunset from the terrace at Hauz Khas Social.
Here, delicious momos – vegetable dumplings coated in rich masala sauce, £3 – pair perfectly with a glass of crisp chardonnay, £6.10 (Socialoffline.in).
Another evening, I head to Karol Bagh market, home to Hooter Restro & Bar, which offers superb paneer curry with buttered naan, £6 (@Hooter_restrobar), before watching live musicians performing on the buzzy rooftop at Epic Restro Bar (@Epicrestrobar).
India is also the birthplace of yoga, so before I set off to explore this intoxicating country further, I decide to join an early-morning class at Seema Sondhi, £10 (Theyogastudio.info).
It proves to be the perfect moment to reflect on an exhilarating and unforgettable city break.
B&B at Crowne Plaza New Delhi Okhla costs from £72 (Ihg.com/crowneplaza).
Direct UK flights to Delhi cost from £556 return.
The platforms have grown in popularity, with some users making bets on global events.
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A HISTORIC market in England is getting a massive revamp – and its in a town named one of the best places to live.
Founded back in 1170, Kingston’s Ancient Market is one of the oldest in London and even the entire UK.
Today, it is home to about 30 local traders including fishmongers, a bakery and street food.
Plans have now been submitted to give the Kingston Market Square a major revamp turning the square into a ‘piazza’, with 45 new Borough Market-like stalls made from sustainable materials with solar panels on top.
The piazza would host pop-ups as well as farmers’ markets, weekend events and concerts too.
If the plans are approved, the Market House nearby would get a refurb as well with the ground floor turned into a restaurant and cafe and the first floor becoming an events space.
Read more on travel inspo
And there would be a new roof terrace overlooking the revamped square.
The statue of Queen Anne that currently sits in the square, will be relocated to the edge of the square too.
The planned revamp is also part of a bigger project to completely revive the area.
Since last year, Between the Bridges – the same operator as the Between the Bridges attraction on South Bank in London – has been operating the 800-year-old Kingston Ancient Market.
Throughout the year, the market usually hosts a number of different events including a Maker’s Market and Christmas market.
The market is open every day from 10am to 5pm.
One recent visitor said: “The market is charming, and offers some very nice gourmet foods, both to take home and dine out for lunch.
“Great atmosphere, particularly in the lead up to Christmas when it really comes alive with a kind of German Christmas market feel and the smell of mulled wine fills the air.”
Another added: “Kingston-upon-Thames is one of London’s most beautiful suburbs.
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Margate House, Kent
This stylish boutique hotel is in a seaside townhouse, a short walk from Margate’s coolest bars and restaurants. Decked out with plush velvet sofas, candles flickering and striking independent art, inside feels like a warm welcome home. Rooms are stunning, especially the ones that give you a glimpse of the sea.
The Alan, Manchester
The Alan looks extremely grand, being built into a beautiful Grade II listed building. Spread across six floors, with 137 rooms, each one looks like a fancy design magazine. From the concrete coffee tables to the pink plastered walls, the industrial-inspired designs perfectly replicate the history of the city.
The Queen at Chester Hotel
This historic hotel has welcomed the likes of Charles Dickens and Lillie Langtry through its doors. Rooms have richly-patterned carpets with super soft bed linen and premium toiletries in the bathroom. Go for a superior room for extra goodies including bathrobes and snack boxes.
The University Arms Hotel, Cambridge
This Cambridge hotel is in the ideal spot, within walking distance to bars, shops and hotspots like the university colleges and Parker’s Piece. The inside couldn’t be prettier, with huge stained glass windows, grand chandeliers, and rooms with enormous clawfoot bath tubs.
“The historic square is also a delightful place surrounded by beautiful and historic buildings.”
Last year, Kingston was also named the second best place to live in the UK by The Times.
The Better Lives Index, which is produced by the International Longevity Centre (ILC) think tank, ranks the authorities across the UK based on nine categories.
Categories include life expectancy at birth, the child poverty rate, pollution, disposable income, housing costs, ‘avoidable’ mortality, life expectancy at 65, economic activity for over-16s and economic inactivity of 50 to 64-year-olds.
If visiting the market or Kingston, make sure to head to the edge of the market square where you will find All Saints Church, which dates back to 1120.
Venture through the town too, where you can peruse a number of independent shops and grab a bite to eat at one of the restaurants right next to the river.
You can also head to a couple of pubs with outdoor gardens right next to the river.
If the sun is shining, you can even rent your own boat and sail on the River Thames.
From Central London, it takes just 25 minutes to get to Kingston on the train.
For more places outside of London to explore, there’s an English village under an hour from the city that makes the perfect day out.
Plus, have a look at the trendy London neighbourhood with world-famous new museum and cool hotels.
