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President Trump’s decision to strike Iran creates new risks for a significant chunk of the world’s oil supply.

The Islamic Republic itself pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day, or 3% of global output, making it the fourth-largest producer in OPEC. But the nation wields far greater influence over the world’s energy supplies because of its strategic location.

Iran sits on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for about a fifth of the world’s crude from key suppliers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. While the waterway remains open, some oil tankers were avoiding sailing through following the attacks and ships were piling up on either side of the entrance, tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Oil markets are closed for the weekend, and there was no initial information on whether the attacks on Iran and the country’s retaliatory strikes across the region Saturday targeted any energy assets.

Here are the pressure points to watch in oil as events unfold.

Iran’s production

Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day, up from less than 2 million barrels a day in 2020 despite continued international sanctions. The country has become more adept at skirting these restrictions, sending about 90% of its exports to China.

The largest oil deposits are Ahvaz and Marun and the West Karun cluster, all in Khuzestan province.

Iran’s main refinery, built at Abadan in 1912, can process more than 500,000 barrels a day. Other key plants include the Bandar Abbas and Persian Gulf Star refineries, which handle crude and condensate, a type of ultra-light oil that’s abundant in Iran. The capital, Tehran, has its own refinery.

For Iran’s overseas shipments, the Kharg Island terminal in the northern Persian Gulf is the main logistical hub. There was an explosion on the island Saturday, according to Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency, which didn’t provide details or make any reference to the oil terminal.

Kharg Island has numerous loading berths, jetties, remote mooring points and tens of millions of barrels of crude storage capacity. The facilities have handled export volumes exceeding 2 million barrels a day in recent years.

U.S. sanctions discourage most potential buyers of Iran’s crude, but private Chinese refiners have remained willing customers, provided they get steep discounts. For international shipments, Iran relies on a fleet of aging tankers that mostly sail with their transponders deactivated to avoid detection.

Earlier this month, Iran was rapidly filling tankers at Kharg Island, probably in an effort to get as much crude on the water and move vessels out of harm’s way in case the facility was attacked. It was a move similar to last June ahead of Israeli and U.S. attacks.

Any strike on Kharg Island would be a desperate blow for the country’s economy.

Iran’s main natural gas fields are farther to the south along the Persian Gulf coast. Facilities at Assaluyeh and Bandar Abbas process, transport and ship gas and condensate for domestic use in power generation, heating, petrochemicals and other industries.

The area is the main point for Iran’s condensate exports. During the June war, an attack on a local gas plant sparked jitters among traders, but didn’t cause a lasting spike in oil prices because it didn’t affect any export facilities.

Regional Dangers

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Feb. 1 of a “regional war” if his country was attacked by the U.S. Tehran has claimed that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz is within its power.

It would be an extreme step that the country has never taken but remains a nightmare scenario for global markets.

Hormuz is the chokepoint for bulk of the Persian Gulf’s exports of crude and also refined fuels such as diesel and jet fuel. Qatar, one of world’s biggest liquefied natural gas exporters, also relies on the strait. At least three gas tankers going to or from Qatar had paused voyages following the latest attacks in the region, according to ship-tracking data.

A seized South Korean-flagged tanker is escorted by Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz in January 2021. If Iran were to close the strait after the U.S.-Israel strikes Saturday, it would likely cause a massive disruption to exports and cause crude prices to spike.

(Tasnim News Agency via AP)

While OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have some ability to reroute their shipments via pipelines that avoid Hormuz, closing the strait would still cause a massive disruption to exports and cause crude prices to spike.

There were signs that other Gulf producers were also accelerating shipments in February. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments averaged about 7.3 million barrels a day in the first 24 days of the month, the most in almost three years. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were set to climb almost 600,000 barrels a day from the same period in January, according to data from Vortexa Ltd.

In the past, Tehran has made retaliatory strikes on some of its neighbors’ energy assets. In 2019, Saudi Arabia blamed Tehran for a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility that halted production equivalent to about 7% of global crude supply.

Many observers say it’s improbable that Iran could keep Hormuz closed for long, making lower-impact actions like harassment of shipping more likely.

During last year’s war on Iran by Israel and the U.S., nearly 1,000 vessels a day were having their GPS signals jammed near Iran’s coast, contributing to one tanker collision. Sea mines are another long-threatened option for deterring shipping.

Market reactions

Oil surged the most in more than three years during the June war, with Brent crude rising above $80 a barrel in London. However, the gains quickly faded once it became clear that key regional oil infrastructure hadn’t been damaged.

Since then, concerns about an oversupply have dominated global markets, with crude in London ending 2025 about 18% lower than where it started.

Despite those fears of a glut, prices have surged 19% this year, partly due to fears of U.S. strikes on Iran.

With the main oil futures closed for the weekend, there’s limited insight into how traders are reacting to the latest attacks. However, a retail trading product, run by IG Group Ltd., was pricing West Texas Intermediate as high as $75.33, a gain of as much as 12% from Friday’s close.

Burkhardt and Di Paola write for Bloomberg. Bloomberg writer Julian Lee contributed to this report.

Emerging markets are roaring back in 2026, staging a rally that has surprised investors not only for its speed — unmatched in decades — but also for the broader global context in which it is unfolding.

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While US software stocks reel from artificial intelligence disruption fears and the S&P 500 remains broadly flat year-to-date, emerging markets are decoupling.

In a reversal of long-standing market dynamics, the asset class is briefly playing an unexpected role: that of a relative safe haven.

The rally is broad, persistent and increasingly supported by flows, macro conditions and structural shifts in global trade.

Emerging markets dominate global performance rankings

Data from CountryETFTracker show that the five best-performing country-specific exchange traded funds so far this year all belong to emerging markets.

Leading the rally is South Korea’s iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), up 43.28% year-to-date after a 96% surge in 2025.

The gains reflect the dominance of chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which are benefiting from strong global demand for AI-related memory and advanced semiconductors, lifting exports and corporate earnings.

It is followed by Peru’s iShares MSCI Peru ETF (EPU), which has gained 25.31%, Brazil’s iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) at 22.03%, Thailand (THD) at 21.38% and Turkey (TUR) at 21.32%.

The broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index, tracked by the iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM), is up nearly 13% year-to-date.

Two elements stand out here: the scale of the relative strength and the remarkable consistency of the rally.

Over the past two months, EEM has achieved the strongest relative surge against the S&P 500 since 2008. Over 12 months, the performance gap has widened to 25 percentage points — the largest divergence since January 2010.

Emerging markets have also recorded 13 positive months out of the last 14 and closed higher for nine consecutive weeks — a streak not seen since 2005.

There is, unmistakably, a structural trend under way.

Record inflows toward geographic capital reallocation

The rally is not only price-driven but also flow-driven.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF attracted more than $4bn (€3.7bn) in January 2026, its strongest month for inflows since 2015.

South Korea alone drew $1.6bn (€1.5bn) in January and over $1bn (€0.9bn) in February, while Brazil attracted nearly $1bn (€0.9bn) in January.

The surge in allocations suggests that institutional investors are actively increasing exposure to emerging markets.

Importantly, flows appear broad-based rather than concentrated in a single thematic trade.

While Asia-focused markets have benefited from AI supply-chain positioning, Latin American funds have drawn support from commodities and cyclical exposure.

Why is this happening?

1) Rotation away from crowded US tech

Much of 2026’s market narrative has centred on artificial intelligence disruption, particularly in long-duration US software stocks.

After years of heavy concentration in mega-cap American technology names, investors are reassessing exposure as valuations look stretched and volatility rises.

Emerging markets, by contrast, began the year trading at sizeable discounts to developed peers.

Capital is rotating away from crowded US growth trades into cyclicals, commodities and regions directly exposed to AI hardware demand.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research highlighted that while the US economy still remains exceptional, emerging economies benefit from expanding middle classes, rising industrial output and export growth that increasingly outpaces advanced economies.

2) Dollar weakness supports emerging markets

Currency dynamics are reinforcing the move towards emerging markets.

Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, indicates that the US Dollar Index is close to breaking its long-term uptrend, with expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts adding pressure.

Central banks’ gradual diversification away from the US dollar towards gold, alongside a persistent US trade deficit that continues to expand the global supply of dollars, is also exerting downward pressure on the greenback.

For emerging markets, a softer dollar eases financing conditions and improves relative returns.

Bank of America strategist David Hauner describes the near-certainty of the next Fed move being a cut as a ‘volatility compressor’ — a backdrop that has historically supported EM assets.

3) AI hardware boom supports Asia

While AI concerns weigh on US software, the hardware backbone of artificial intelligence is largely produced in Asia.

Taiwan dominates advanced semiconductor production, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics remains a global leader in memory chips.

In Taiwan, technology-related goods now account for roughly 80% of exports and the bulk of recent growth. Revenue at TSMC continues to track the island’s export momentum, with analysts expecting another year of solid expansion in 2026.

4) Commodities and cyclicals add further support

The strength is not confined to technology exporters. Commodity-linked economies such as Brazil and Peru are benefiting from firm metals and agricultural demand, while Thailand and Turkey are gaining from improved financial conditions and cyclical recovery dynamics.

Against a backdrop of stabilising global growth and easing US monetary policy expectations, emerging markets combining export momentum with improving external balances are regaining investor attention.

Why this matters

The resurgence of emerging markets is more than a short-term performance story.

After a decade dominated by US exceptionalism, the current rally points to a potential broadening of global leadership — driven by currency dynamics, shifting capital flows and the geography of AI-driven production.

If sustained, the move could reshape portfolio allocations and challenge the long-standing concentration of global equity returns in a narrow group of US mega-cap stocks.

Feb. 23 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s government said Sunday it would maintain round-the-clock market monitoring after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled reciprocal tariffs invalid, adding that the immediate impact on global markets appeared limited.

U.S. and European equities rose on the day of the ruling, while the dollar index remained stable, officials said. Still, Seoul warned that trade uncertainty persists amid signals from Washington about possible new tariff measures and the continuation of sector-specific duties.

First Vice Minister of Economy and Finance Lee Hyung-il chaired an emergency market review meeting in Seoul attended by officials from the central bank and financial regulators.

Participants said global markets reacted calmly on Thursday, when the U.S. court issued its decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.69%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.18%. The dollar index fell 0.2%, and yields on 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury notes each climbed 2 basis points.

Officials said improved risk appetite contributed to broadly stable trading conditions.

However, they cautioned that policy uncertainty remains after the U.S. government signaled it could impose a 10% tariff on goods from all countries, with a possible increase to 15% the following day. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine were also cited as potential risks.

The government said it would continue operating a 24-hour joint monitoring system among relevant agencies and strengthen coordination to respond quickly if volatility increases.

Separately, officials noted that tariffs on automobiles and steel imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act remain in place, and that a new investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act has been launched.

Participants agreed to closely track follow-up measures by Washington and responses from major trading partners, and to work to ensure that South Korea’s export conditions to the United States are not adversely affected.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260223010006557

U.S. trade policy uncertainty has sent shockwaves through global markets, as President Donald Trump moved to impose a 15% tariff following the Supreme Court of the United States ruling invalidating his emergency trade levies. Investors reacted quickly, rotating out of risk assets and the dollar, while seeking shelter in gold, silver, and safe-haven currencies. The turbulence highlights the fragility of global investor confidence when policy reversals collide with high-stakes geopolitical and economic risks.

Wall Street and Currency Volatility

U.S. stock futures fell sharply, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures slipping 0.6%. The dollar weakened across major pairs, losing 0.21% versus the yen and 0.34% against the Swiss franc, while the euro gained 0.23%. European equities also reflected caution: the STOXX 600 fell 0.19%, Germany’s DAX slid 0.36%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 edged down 0.1%.

Asian markets, however, were mixed. The MSCI Asia index excluding Japan rose 0.83%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.53% on expectations of lower tariffs for China. Japan’s Nikkei futures fell 0.4% ahead of a holiday, highlighting regional divergence driven by perceived winners and losers in U.S. tariff policy.

Safe-Haven Assets Rally

Amid the uncertainty, investors sought protection in gold and silver, which climbed 0.6% and 2% respectively. Safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, appreciated as risk-off sentiment grew. Government bonds saw slight gains, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.077%, reflecting flight-to-quality buying. Brent crude prices fell 1.1% to $70.97 a barrel, reversing gains from earlier geopolitical risk sentiment linked to U.S.-Iran tensions.

Tariff Confusion and Its Economic Implications

Trump’s latest tariffs add layers of ambiguity. While the Supreme Court struck down his emergency powers, the new 15% levy relies on Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, an untested statute. Questions remain over timing, exclusions, and applicability by country. Some nations, including the UK and Australia, had lower tariffs under prior rules, while many Asian exporters faced higher duties. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate at 13.7% following the announcement, down from 16% pre-ruling, with the 15% rate potentially dropping to 9.1% after 150 days.

“This circular process of tariff announcements, legal challenges, and revisions is creating profound uncertainty for markets,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

The episode reflects broader structural concerns about U.S. trade policy’s unpredictability. Investors are no longer just reacting to tariffs themselves, but to the instability and volatility of policy enforcement. The uncertainty affects supply chains, corporate earnings forecasts, and capital allocation decisions. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, for example, are being closely watched, given the company’s 8% weighting in the S&P 500, demonstrating how trade policy shocks can amplify market sensitivity to specific corporate results.

Analytical Outlook

Trump’s oscillating trade policy highlights a critical tension between political objectives and market stability. While tariffs are framed as instruments to advance domestic economic priorities, the resulting unpredictability imposes systemic costs: currency swings, equity market volatility, and flight to safe assets. The mixed regional responses Asian equities partially rallying, European markets cautious underscore how interconnected global trade and finance are, and how unevenly shocks are absorbed.

In essence, this episode illustrates a modern economic paradox: protective trade measures intended to strengthen domestic interests can, in practice, destabilize markets worldwide. Investors now must hedge not only against tariffs themselves but also against the policy volatility that accompanies them a scenario likely to persist as long as U.S. trade decisions are made unilaterally and unpredictably.

Trump’s approach has transformed trade from a predictable framework into a high-stakes, reactive arena, forcing global markets to continuously recalibrate. The lesson is clear: in today’s interconnected financial system, the cost of policy uncertainty often outweighs the intended protectionist benefit.

With information from Reuters.

ONE of the UK’s most famous streets is getting a massive glow-up.

Portobello Road Market in London, which is well-known for its thriving market with curiosity shops, attracts millions of visitors a year.

And now it will be undergoing a £4.4million makeover.

As part of the upgrade, there area will be getting wider pavements, new lights, better accessibility, more greenery and parking bays.

There will even be a new draining system to prevent flooding, which the area is prone to.

Portobello Road’s concrete anti-terror barriers will also be replaced with sliding bollards.

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Work is expected to begin in January 2027.

Portobello Road Market, found in the Notting Hill area, features a lot of antique shops, restaurants and independent boutiques.

And the market is one of the most famous and historic in the world, dating back over 160 years.

Visitors can explore hundreds of stalls, full of different curiosities, bric-a-brac, jewellery, antiques, clothing and more.

On Fridays and Saturdays – which tend to be the busiest days – the market stalls actually stretch over a mile long from start to finish.

And then on Sundays, there are less stalls, but still plenty to explore and the shops remain open as well.

One recent visitor said: “Lots of interesting stuff, the vintage market section was the best, but the main road itself was insane with people even early in the morning.

“Worth a visit at least once.”

Another added: “Portobello Road and its market is fun to experience.

“It is located in the charming residential neighborhood of Notting Hill.

“Interesting mix of touristy and local shops, eateries, and temporary booths/stalls. Highly recommended!”

A third said: “The market is full of life, colours, and unique finds.

“I especially enjoyed browsing the small stalls with handmade and vintage jewellery — I found some truly beautiful and one-of-a-kind pieces.

“A must-visit spot in London if you enjoy local art, antiques, and something different from the usual shops.”

Portobello has also featured in a number of films, perhaps most notably Notting Hill, starring Hugh Grant and Julia Roberts.

And you can actually visit the bookshop that inspired the bookshop in the film.

Called the Notting Hill Bookshop in real life, the store features the same façade and interiors today that the original shop did which was used in Notting Hill as The Travel Book Co.

There is a lot to do in the surrounding area as well.

For example, you could head to the Museum of Brands to see how household products have changed their look over the years.

It costs £11.50 per person to visit.

Or perhaps wander to Kensington, where you can explore Kensington Palace and Gardens, which costs from £20.60 per person to visit.

In other travel news from London, the city’s most underrated attraction is the best place for families on a budget.

Plus, London’s best family attraction that ‘feels like it was created for kids’ to get a huge new nature playground.

Tehran, Iran – Iran says it will continue efforts to get out of a blacklist of a prominent global watchdog on money laundering and “terrorism” financing despite “20 years of obstruction” from domestic opponents.

The statement by the Financial Intelligence Unit of Iran’s Ministry of Economic Affairs on Sunday came two days after the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force (FATF) renewed its years-long blacklisting of Iran, according to a report by the official IRNA news agency.

The FATF also ramped up measures aimed at isolating Iran from global financial markets with a particular focus on virtual asset service providers (VASPs) and cryptocurrencies.

It recommended member states and financial institutions around the world to:

• Refuse to establish representative offices of Iranian financial institutions and VASPs or consider the noncompliance risks involved.
• Prohibit financial institutions and VASPs from establishing offices in Iran.
• On a risk basis, limit business relationships or financial transactions, including virtual asset transactions, with Iran or people inside the country.
• Prohibit financial institutions and VASPs from establishing new correspondent banking relationships and require them to undertake a risk-based review of existing ties.

Even the flow of funds involving humanitarian assistance, food and health supplies as well as diplomatic operating costs and personal remittances are recommended to be handled “on a risk basis considering the “terrorist” financing or proliferation financing risks emanating from Iran”.

What does the FATF move mean?

Iran has been blacklisted by the FATF for years and is currently on the list in the company of just two other countries: North Korea and Myanmar.

Since October 2019, Iran has had “heightened measures” like supervisory examination and external audit requirements recommended against it and has been subject to “effective countermeasures” since February 2020.

This contributed to making access to international transactions increasingly difficult or impossible for Iranian banks and nationals and made the country more dependent on costlier shadowy third-party intermediaries for transactions.

The new countermeasures emphasise existing frameworks but also specifically cite virtual assets, signalling an increased focus.

The fact that the FATF also urges countries and global institutions to remain wary of risks of having any dealings with Iran may mean even more limited transaction opportunities for Iranian entities and nationals.

Small banks maintaining old correspondent relations with Iranian counterparts may also reconsider after being recommended to re-evaluate existing links.

The isolation has hobbled state-run or private income streams and contributed to the continuous depreciation of the Iranian rial over the years.

Links with Iran’s nuclear dilemmas

The FATF, formerly known by its French name, was established by the Group of Seven (G7) countries in 1989 to combat money laundering but later had its mandate expanded to countering financing of “terrorism” and weapons of mass destruction.

It has been formally raising concerns about Iran since the late 2000s, which is also when it started calling for countermeasures as international tensions grew over Iran’s nuclear programme and the country was sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council.

But a year after Iran signed a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that lifted the sanctions, the FATF also acknowledged a “high-level political commitment” from Iran and agreed to an action plan for the country to address its compliance requirements.

The centrist government of President Hassan Rouhani, who had clinched the deals, pressed ahead with ratifying several laws needed to fulfil the action plan despite opposition from hardliners who were firmly against the increased financial transparency and international supervision.

But United States President Donald Trump unilaterally reneged on the nuclear deal in 2018, imposing a “maximum pressure” campaign that has remained in effect until today. The move empowered the argument from the hardliners in Tehran, who succeeded in blocking the ratification of the rest of the FATF-linked legislation, leaving the issue dormant for years.

Washington has retained the sanctions over the years with some of the latest – including the blacklisting in January of two United Kingdom-based cryptocurrency exchanges – allegedly connected to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The UN Security Council sanctions were also reinstated against Iran in September when Western powers triggered the “snapback” mechanism of the nuclear accord. They include an arms embargo, asset freezes and travel bans as well as nuclear, missile and banking sanctions that are binding for all UN member states.

Support for ‘axis of resistance’

The Iranian hardliners railing against any progress on FATF-related legislation have presented two main concerns.

They assert that fully adhering to the watchdog’s guidelines would curb Tehran’s ability to back its “axis of resistance” of aligned armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine. The axis lost its base in Syria with the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

Hardliners have also suggested that Iran’s ability to circumvent US sanctions may be significantly compromised by disclosing all the information required by the FATF.

Iran has been selling most of its oil to China at hefty discounts, using a shadow fleet of ships that turn their transponders off to avoid detection in international waters. The country has also for years been forced to rely on a capillary network of currency exchanges and intermediaries, some of them based in neighbouring countries, such as Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates.

To assuage some of the domestic concerns, two FATF-related laws ratified by Iran in 2025 were passed with special “conditions” and reservations infused in the text.

One of the main conditions was that the ratified regulations must not “prejudice the legitimate right of peoples or groups under colonial domination and/or foreign occupation to fight against aggression and occupation and to exercise their right to self-determination” and “shall not be construed in any manner as recognition of the Zionist occupying regime”, a reference to Israel.

Iran also said it would not accept any referral to the International Court of Justice and asserted that its own Supreme National Security Council would determine which groups qualify as “terrorist” outfits.

Those conditions were rejected by the FATF, leading to the increased countermeasures.

The watchdog also said it expects Iran to identify and freeze “terrorist assets” in line with relevant UN Security Council resolutions. Some of Iran’s nuclear and military authorities are among individuals sanctioned by those resolutions.

Published on
12/02/2026 – 14:57 GMT+1

European shares extended gains to new highs by early afternoon on Thursday, as strong corporate earnings from luxury and industrial groups fuelled a broad rally across the region’s equity markets.

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The pan-European STOXX 600 was up about 0.5% to 624.67 points by midday, holding near the all-time high level as investors digested a heavy slate of earnings updates.

Major benchmarks also hovered near record levels, with France’s CAC 40 up more than 1.4% on the day and London’s FTSE 100 trading around a record intraday high near 10,535 points.

Luxury stocks were among the biggest drivers of gains, with the sector rising about 1.5%.

Shares in Hermès climbed to a near one-month high after the French fashion house reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales, backed by robust demand in the United States and Japan.

The results helped lift sentiment across the high-end consumer segment, which has faced concerns over slowing growth in China and more cautious spending among middle-income shoppers.

AI-adjacent industries jump

Industrial companies linked to artificial intelligence and data-centred demand were another key pillar of the rally.

French electrical equipment maker Legrand jumped about 5.8% after reporting strong demand tied to data-centre projects.

German engineering giant Siemens also rose sharply, climbing more than 6% after raising its full-year profit outlook, citing strong orders linked to AI-driven automation and digital infrastructure.

Analysts say the surge in AI-related industrial stocks reflects expectations that global spending on data centres, automation and electrification, will continue to accelerate as companies invest heavily in artificial intelligence capacity.

Stronger-than-expected corporate earnings updates were seen as the main catalyst for the rally.

Broader market sentiment was also supported by a robust US jobs report, which eased concerns about a slowdown in the world’s largest economy and reinforced expectations that growth will remain steady.

Published on
11/02/2026 – 17:52 GMT+1

Spotify stocks spiked 6% higher at market opening this Wednesday, later paring down some of its gains, after the company released its earnings report on Tuesday.

The popular music platform closed 2025 with a little over €2.2bn in net profits which represents a 94% increase, almost double what was achieved the year prior.

The positive result reinforced the historic turnaround the firm accomplished since 2024, when it became profitable on the year for the first time. Before then, Spotify operated at a loss for almost two decades after being founded in 2006.

Last year, the music streaming platform grew in users by 11% and in paying subscribers by 10%. Additionally, Spotify also cut costs and increased prices in several markets achieving a 33.1% profit margin, the highest in its history.

A substantial part of the success in 2025 occurred towards the end of the year, when the company hit a total of 751 million monthly active users (MAUs), after its biggest quarterly increase in activity.

For the first quarter of 2026, Spotify is projecting a continuation of this trajectory. The report points to around €4,5bn in revenue and 759 million MAUs.

The Swedish executive chairman and founder, Daniel Ek, who resigned from the CEO position last month, stated in the earnings call that Spotify has “built a platform for audio but increasingly to all other ways in which creators connect to the public”.

The new CEO, Alex Norström, also declared that “after a year of execution, 2026 will be the year of elevating ambition”.

Music industry and AI

The impact of Spotify’s growth in 2025 was also felt outside the company, in the music industry as a whole.

The firm paid out more than €11bn to artists last year which the earnings report states is “the largest annual payment to music creators by any platform in history”.

Moreover, the Swedish company stated that “we also helped artists generate over one billion dollars in ticket sales, connecting fans to live events”.

Going forward, one of Spotify’s biggest bets is on AI integration, as is the case for most tech companies.

The firm has accelerated the launch of tools such as a playlist generator based on prompts, and a personalised agentic DJ, which have already been used by millions of paying subscribers.

However, artificial intelligence is also presenting new problems for Spotify such as AI-generated music. In the earnings call, the co-CEO, Gustav Söderström, stated that “the issue isn’t new but it has scaled”.

Söderström added that the company is working closely with the music industry to allow artists and record labels to include disclaimers specifying the production methods.

By Euronews with AP

Published on
11/02/2026 – 9:18 GMT+1

Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show. But exactly what she did during that show turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.

At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday’s appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.

Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the results of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.

The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.

More than $47.3mn (€39.69mn) was wagered on Kalshi’s market for: “Who will perform at the Big Game?” A Polymarket contract had more than $10mn (€8.39mn) in volume.

Cameo appearance

Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.

Due to “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance,’” Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.

Polymarket’s contract was resolved as Cardi B had performed, but the Yes was disputed. A final decision on the contract is expected to be announced on Wednesday.

In the CFTC complaint — first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports — the trader alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act with how it resolved the Cardi B contract. The trader — a Yes holder — is seeking $3,700 (€3,104).

Spike in Super Bowl trading

The Super Bowl capped a big NFL season for prediction markets.

Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1bn (€839mn) in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year’s Super Bowl.

The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6mn (€695.32mn) up more than 2,000% from last year.

The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts”.

She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the affected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.

Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction markets when it announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2025 on Tuesday.

“I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,” CEO Vlad Tenev said during an earnings call.

“This year is going to be a big year. The Olympics are going on right now. The World Cup is coming in the summer.”

Published on 10/02/2026 – 17:37 GMT+1•Updated
17:51

The Vatican Bank has announced this Tuesday the launch of two equity indices, both in the US and in the eurozone, selecting stocks from firms that purportedly respect and adhere to Catholic tenets.

The initiative was set up in partnership with Morningstar and represents an abnormal association between the Vatican and the financial sector.

The Vatican Bank is officially known as the Institute for the Works of Religion (IOR) and these new indices are labelled as the Morningstar IOR US Catholic Principles and the Morningstar IOR Eurozone Catholic Principles.

Each of these indices holds 50 medium and large-cap companies, including Big Tech and major financial firms, that the Vatican Bank argues are “consistent with Catholic teachings on life issues, social responsibility and environmental protection”.

According to Morningstar, the fund’s top American holdings feature companies like Meta and Amazon, while its European counterpart includes firms such as ASML, Deutsche Telekom and SAP.

This partnership between the Vatican Bank and Morningstar comes after initiatives to rehabilitate the IOR’s image, which had been damaged over the years through various scandals involving fraudulent activities such as misappropriation of funds.

The late Pope Francis had already ratified a series of reforms to address those problems.

ESG outflows and Catholic-based investing

This move by the Vatican Bank also occurs during a period when ESG funds are experiencing substantial outflows.

However, the concept of Catholic-based investing is not new or unique. These new indices already face rivals in the sector.

For example, there is a US-based ETF named S&P 500 Catholic Values Index structured in a similar way and worth over $1bn (€840mn).

Additionally, a US-based family fund named Ave Maria Mutual Funds reported over $3.8bn (€3.2bn) in assets under management last year. This fund also claims to follow a Catholic-based investment strategy.

Asian markets edged higher on Monday as Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) convincingly won the elections in Japan, providing greater clarity to investors worldwide.

The Japanese stock index, Nikkei 225, rose around 4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.76%, Korea’s Kospi rose 4.10%, while China’s SSE Composite Index saw a 1.41% gain.

In Europe, markets were mixed, with the STOXX Europe 600 trading less than 0.1% higher by around midday CET. France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 fell, while Germany’s DAX was 0.18% higher and Spain’s IBEX 35 saw a 0.44% lift.

All eyes are now on the New York session open, with US futures trending downwards.

As for precious metals, gold is also up around 0.72% — back above $5,000 — while silver is more than 2% higher, at just under $80 per ounce.

The yen strengthened on Monday after Takaichi’s election victory, reversing six consecutive days of losses.

The PM assured the “continuation of responsible and proactive fiscal policies” after the election, although it’s unclear whether she is pursuing a weaker yen policy, highlighting that there are both advantages and disadvantages to a slide in the currency’s value.

Japan’s perceived stability

The first female Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, has regained a substantial amount of support for the LDP, which it had lost in recent elections due to inflation and corruption.

Following her electoral victory, Takaichi announced plans to accelerate the implementation of her campaign pledge to suspend the sales tax on food for two years.

The consequent loss of government revenue from this initiative, paired with high debt, is partially what caused a rout in Japanese bonds last month.

Nevertheless, Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama talked down concerns over the country’s debt and the recent currency weakness, which many investors believe could prompt a rise in interest rates.

Katayama suggested utilising foreign exchange reserves to fund national expenditures. Although possible, this approach can be challenging as those reserves are usually only used for currency interventions.

The Japanese Finance Minister also underlined the ongoing collaboration and strong communication between the government and the Bank of Japan.

This assurance, together with the political stability provided by the robust mandate given to Prime Minister Takaichi, seems to have mitigated the markets’ distress — at least for the time being.

US economic reports

This week, investors worldwide are also bracing for major economic data releases in the United States, including reports delayed by the recent partial government shutdown.

The focus will be on the January jobs report on Wednesday and the January consumer price index (CPI) which comes out on Friday.

The delayed payrolls report is expected to show modest gains of roughly 60,000 jobs while the CPI is estimated to show inflation cooling to 2.5%.

Together with the release of these reports, multiple Federal Reserve governors, including Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, are scheduled to speak throughout the week.

Investors are paying particular attention to the language used by members of the Fed to gauge the new policy line, following the announcement of Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, as the next Federal Reserve Chair.

Warsh is set to take over in May 2026, pending Senate confirmation.

President Donald Trump picked Kevin Warsh as a figure whose public and private track record is likely to reassure the financial markets. Warsh has advocated lower rates and a reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet.