looming

High-profile trades before the season showed their fans and the rest of the NFL that with Super Bowl LXI to be played at SoFi Stadium, the Rams were unquestionably all in.

But as the league’s trade deadline came and went Tuesday, the injury-ravaged Rams made only one minor move, essentially saying they’ll handle this all internally.

While the NFC West-leading San Francisco 49ers added veteran receiver Keenan Allen, the Rams — with Davante Adams on injured reserve and Puka Nacua expected to be sidelined for an extended period — brought back receiver Xavier Smith, whom they released in October.

That is a far cry from moves the Rams made in previous Super Bowl seasons. In 2018, they traded for edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. In 2021, they signed free-agent receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and traded for edge rusher Von Miller.

Coach Sean McVay indicated the last few weeks that the Rams were unlikely to be active at the deadline.

But that was before last Sunday, when Nacua suffered knee and toe injuries that are expected to sideline the All-Pro receiver for several weeks. The Rams were already thin at receiver after Adams suffered a hamstring injury that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 7.

“You have to look at all avenues to try to be able to solve some of the issues or situations or scenarios that have come up,” McVay said Monday when asked if the Rams might pursue a receiver. “A lot of new things occur on a daily basis, so I would never rule it out.”

Allen and Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts and Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars were thought to be potential targets for the Rams.

Rams general manager Les Snead.

(Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

But the Jaguars ultimately took Thomas off the market. The 49ers, with receiver depth problems of their own, added Allen, and the Kansas City Chiefs traded for Downs.

The 49ers’ move came after they had traded for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner ahead of the deadline. And the defending Super Bowl-champion Seattle Seahawks had bolstered their roster by trading for All-Pro offensive lineman Quenton Nelson.

Barring the Rams signing a free agent — the Minnesota Vikings released Beckham after the deadline and signed him to their practice squad — they will go into Sunday’s game against the Arizona Cardinals with a receiver corps that includes Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell, rookie CJ Daniels and Smith. The Rams re-signed Smith from the 49ers’ practice squad after placing Jordan Whittington on injured reserve.

The Rams are 5-4 and have won three games in a row. But according to ESPN, they have the league’s toughest remaining schedule.

After playing at the Cardinals, the Rams will have what is essentially a mini-bye before playing the Green Bay Packers at SoFi Stadium on the night before Thanksgiving.

Then they play the Chiefs, at the 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys and games against the Seahawks sandwiched around a game at Tampa Bay.

Defensive lineman Kobie Turner is expected to return against the Packers, and Adams, Nacua, tight end Terrance Ferguson and offensive lineman Steve Avila will be available at some point. But whether the Rams can remain in contention for a playoff spot is the all-encompassing question.

A new report from the think tank founded by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt quantifies the grim realities of the U.S. defense industrial base’s dependence on China for critical rare earth minerals. It also details which weapons systems might face the most impact if that delicate supply relationship breaks down.

The white paper, exclusively obtained from the Special Competitive Studies Project, uses AI intelligence from the supply chain tech firm Exiger to assess how many unique components, identified by National Item Identification Number, or NIIN, contain critical minerals, such as antimony, gallium, germanium and tungsten.

From an assessment of almost nine million parts and 3,000 U.S. military weapon systems, the company identified more than 28,000 unique components  across 1,400 weapons systems containing just these four rare earths. The isolation of these parts is relevant in particular because of a near-term crisis: the expiration of a suspension on Chinese export controls set to take effect in November. Disruption to weapons fielding plans, as well as operational readiness and sustainment activities, according to the white paper, is very much a possibility. Yet according to Kit Conklin, chief strategy and global affairs officer at Exiger, the crisis is already here. 

In an interview with TWZ, he pointed to Japan, which is facing the prospect of a manufacturing halt after China choked off supply of some rare earths to the tune of more than 80% earlier this year.

“There’s no question that right now it’s a crisis for a lot of companies that are trying to get licenses approved by China and just not getting the licenses,” Conklin said. “So there’s real risk to current production, and when I think about us and scaling, whether it’s the drone industrial base or trying to scale our interceptor capacity to 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 interceptors a year, I mean, these are real choke points that we have that are impacting our ability to deliver these to the warfighter right now.”

Among the weapons systems most at risk for supply chain and manufacturing disruption, according to the data, is the vital Virginia-class submarine, which requires more than 300 critical NIINs containing the four elements, including 190 parts requiring germanium.

Germanium, used in optics, night vision systems, EO/IR equipment and more, is a byproduct of zinc ore. In January, the Pentagon announced an $18 million investment in the country’s only germanium production facility in St. George, Utah to expand refining capacity “sevenfold” to more than 20 metric tons annually by an unspecified deadline.

China controls some 68% of the world’s refined germanium. It has a far greater chokehold on gallium, used in semiconductors and solar cells, and especially advanced radars, controlling up to 99% of production. Each Virginia-class sub requires 50 unique parts containing gallium.

China controls about half the production of antimony, used to harden ammunition and to manufacture optics and electronics; and up to 80% of the supply of tungsten, used in manufacturing tools, warheads and heat-resistant components.

While it doesn’t break down components by weight, the report notes that the rare earth requirements for the Virginia-class sub are also considerable by mass: each sub required 9,200 pounds of the elements, while an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jet requires 900 pounds.

The Virginia-class submarine is America’s only in-production fast-attack nuclear-powered sub that has been in service since 2004. Twenty three of these critical vessels are in service today, or roughly half of the total planned program, with the remaining boats yet to be built. It’s notable in the context of the paper because it has multiple points of exposure to supply chain disruption. Another of these exposure points: its 1,700 mission or safety-critical parts requiring casting, forging or extrusion. As the report lays out, supply chain bottlenecks around limited metal casting, forging and extruding capacity are delaying production timelines and putting manufacturing at risk.

China, again, produces about half of the world’s casting output and “is often the sole option for large castings,” the paper found. The analysis shows that more than half, or nearly 8,000, unique supply items containing steel castings have delivery lead times of more than 36 weeks. More than 9,400 items containing extruded aluminum, about 47% of these parts, have lead times that long.

“Virginia-class submarines, already threatened by U.S. reliance on China for critical minerals, are reportedly also three years behind schedule, potentially due in part to the lack of domestic large-scale casting capacity,” the report finds. An analysis of Navy construction timelines published earlier this year does indeed find that 10 of the 12 Virginia subs now under construction face delays of 36-44 months.

Alarmingly, a recent war game simulation found that the U.S. could not replace ships, planes and missiles lost to combat specifically due to casting and forging shortfalls, the report notes. That’s despite a $2 billion Pentagon initiative launched in 2024 aimed at revitalizing this industry.

Beyond submarines, the report shows that aircraft, including some of the nation’s workhorse fighter jets, face outsized production and sustainment risk due to rare-earth elements and casting/forging dependencies.

The B-2 Spirit bomber – the nation’s only nuclear-armed stealth bomber until fielding begins on the B-21 Raider sometime next year – requires 782 parts containing the four rare-earth elements isolated in the report.

The F/A-18 Hornet family of fighters flown by the Navy and Marine Corps, including the Navy’s Growler electronic warfare variant, tops the list for dependency on steel castings, with 3,800 individual parts requiring the process. Following is the KC-135 Stratotanker, with 2,570 parts. All 10 of the systems requiring the most metal castings for production are aircraft, the analysis shows. The legacy Hornet and the KC-135 have been out of production for decades, while the Navy’s Super Hornet will see its production line go cold in 2027. Any ongoing demand for castings for these systems would thus be in spares and repair parts. 

Military aircraft also represent the highest-need category among weapons systems requiring cadmium plating, a process used to make aerospace components corrosion-resistant.  The domestic supplier base has shrunk due to EPA safety limitations established in 2008. All of the top 10 weapons systems requiring the most cadmium-plated parts are aircraft, with the KC-135 topping the list with 2,780 unique components. The C-130 Hercules transport, B-52 Stratofortress bomber and Galaxy C-5 transport all have more than 2,000 parts.

The B-52, which is undergoing a service life extension to take it into the 2050s – past its century mark – may run into modernization delays not only over cadmium-plated and steel-casted components, but also due to overly rigid military specifications, which increase lead time and delays. The white paper cites the bomber’s rib airfoil and fuel vent valve components, which both have lead times of more than 400 days due in part to production being burdened with dozens of mil-spec compliance requirements, which the authors say have not kept pace with today’s commercial practices.

“The requirement for a part to meet so many mil-specs, if not reasonably necessary, may limit the number of possible suppliers of that part, potentially increasing its lead time and bottlenecking production,” they write. “For the B-52, this could inhibit current modernization efforts intended to keep the airplane operational through the 2050s.”

A final risk the paper addresses is workforce shortages and dangers from limited suppliers creating single points of failure. Across defense, the number of small suppliers has decreased by 43% in the last decade, it notes. It cites, as a case study, the February 2025 fire that forced the closure of SPS Technologies in Jenkintown, Penn. – a fastener maker that produced components for more than 1,000 weapons systems and was deemed critical for 90, including the Nimitz-class carrier, the F/A-18 fighter and the M1 Abrams tank. For systems including the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile and the MH-60 Black Hawk helicopter, the facility was a single-source supplier.

With operations offline until at least 2028, the supply chain has been “actively disrupted” due to the outage of just one facility, according to the paper.

“This case underscores the risk of single sourcing in the defense industrial base and the need to qualify alternate sources to avoid such significant chokepoints,” the authors write.

The paper hails work that has already begun to invest in domestic critical minerals production and shore up the defense industrial base. But it does hint that these efforts may be too late to avoid a crash if China shuts off or severely reduces exports. The paper notes that, on average, it takes the U.S. 29 years to open a new mine. The U.S. has one established domestic mine: The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, just outside of Las Vegas. Initially established in 1952 and reopened in 2018 after a long hiatus, it now produces more than 50,000 tons of rare earth oxides annually. Last year, for the first time in seven decades, a new domestic rare-earth mine opened in Wyoming, stating plans to start producing ores extracted from coal, including gallium and germanium, by 2029. Production is projected to total 456 tons of rare earths per year. The project had been in development for more than a decade before opening. 

Conklin said a July executive order aimed at developing domestic production of rare earths while collecting data on what elements systems required created opportunities for smart policy creation – perhaps in the next National Defense Authorization Act – around holistically attacking the problem. 

“I would love for us to figure out a way to get out of thinking about these supply chain risks system by system. We tend to have disparate requirements to look at the nuclear triad or subs or interceptors,” he said. “I think with the executive order that came out earlier this year, there’s a real opportunity for Congress to legislate on some of these issues beyond just figuring out what the risk [is] for antimony in the sub industrial base, and thinking about it a little bit more holistically.”

One potential solution he proposed: an agency within the executive branch (led, perhaps, by a critical minerals czar) who can coordinate production needs and resourcing and develop the most efficient pathways to secure needed materials.

While no U.S. defense manufacturer has yet publicly cited manufacturing disruptions due to rare earth availability, signs are increasing that the federal government is taking supply concerns seriously. In addition to Project Vault, a $12 billion White House initiative announced in February that would create a strategic stockpile of rare earths akin to existing stockpiles of critical medical supplies and petroleum, the U.S. Army has begun extending long-term leases on military land to companies seeking to build critical mineral processing facilities.

Conklin said he doesn’t anticipate major changes in rare earth exports between now and the end of the year, describing the U.S.-China supply relationship as “in a bit of a détente.” That said, with new policies pending, we could be only days away from new revelations about the extent of the impact of these materials on the defense manufacturing enterprise.

Contact the editor: Tyler@twz.com

This year, the Dodgers watched the World Series from home, with the Milwaukee Brewers’ World Series victory over the Tampa Bay Rays officially ushering in a fresh slate for the Dodgers to plan their 2027 championship pursuit.

“When you take the experience and the talent of our core guys, and you look at what is coming [up through the farm system], that is what gives us a high degree of confidence about being able to sustain this,” said Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, in his end-of-season news conference, “not just in 2027, but as we look out.”

As the Dodgers attempt to strengthen their roster to climb back to the top, however, they’ll have to navigate a disjointed winter transaction window.

MLB owners are expected to impose a lockout when the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1. If that happens, the offseason will grind to a halt, suspended indefinitely until the two sides sign a new agreement.

Will that expected shutdown spur early action in free agency?

Will the threat of a salary cap freeze the player market?

It’s unclear, but teams are readying themselves to jump into action whenever the market does move.

“There’ve been a number of things that we’ve done over the last couple of years that, in October, early-November planning we didn’t think was likely or that possible,” Friedman said. “An opportunity popped up, and we were at least prepared enough to act in the time to get something done — there’ve been trades, there’s been free-agent signings.

“So for us, it’s just about our internal meetings, getting as prepared as we can be. Because things are going to play out in ways and timing and things that we can’t anticipate, so be as prepared as we can be.”

Amid those unique circumstances, here’s a guide to the Dodgers’ offseason:

The vital moment comes a couple of hours into the walk. I drop down from a tussocky hill towards the village of Y Fron. There’s an abandoned slate-quarrying machine and a grassy track that suddenly emerges on the rim of a deep lake-filled crater. The water is the colour of an old bruise. Around the rim is a fence of lichen-crusty slates like gravestones. It’s a dark, brooding spectacle and totally unexpected. At that moment, I know that whoever designed this route knew what they were doing.

This is the Llwybr Llechi Eryri (Snowdonia Slate Trail), an 83-mile hike that follows a great loop around the national park, starting in Bangor and ending in Bethesda. It strings together a series of abandoned slate quarries with some of the finest riverside and mountain walking in the UK. I’m doing just three days, starting in Llanberis and heading to Betws-y-Coed via stops in Beddgelert and Llan Ffestiniog.

Beyond Y Fron village, I descend into my first quarry, and it proves to be a classic. This was once the Dorothea slate quarry, a vast abandoned complex of railways, cottages and chasms. I start exploring: tunnels, cuttings, huge looming stone towers like Maya temples, all overgrown with ash, birch and oak. What strikes me is the craftsmanship and precision in construction, each stone hand-fitted without mortar, all for workaday industrial buildings.

The quality of this slate was known from early times. Edward I is thought to have had his Welsh castles roofed with it, but industrial production began in the 1820s and peaked in the 1870s. Soon, there was a railway to Caernarfon and the area bristled with steam pumps, aerial cables and chains. The last-ever Cornish beam engine was installed to pump water from the deep pits, sucking up 10 gallons a second from 500ft down.

From here, the trail burrows eastwards into the Welsh mountains, until Yr Wyddfa (Snowdon) appears on the horizon when it turns south, occasionally following the line of the Welsh Highland Railway all the way into Beddgelert, my first overnight stop. Named after a dog or a saint, depending on who you believe, this is a good base for hikers, having pubs, cafes, restaurants and outdoor gear shops.

The second day begins along a path combining the Slate Trail and the Cambrian Way, one of the grandees of the long-distance genre at 298 miles. I follow the route as it heads south along the River Glaslyn, with some spectacular sections on crags with the torrent below. We are getting along very nicely – so well, in fact, that I start to get footpath envy. When the Cambrian Way turns east, heading up the Matterhorn-shaped peak of Cnicht, I cannot resist. The weather forecast is bad, but the sun is out. If I pop over the peak, I can see how the two paths cross each other later.

Views of the Irish Sea open up as I climb, but there is an ominous black cloud approaching. As I reach the summit, a howling wind threatens to blow me off course. I face down the hailstones and get back to the Slate Trail, which now descends into Cwmorthin quarry. Not on the scale of Dorothea, Cwmorthin still seems epic today, dominated by vast heaps of spoiled stone – it took 10 tons to make 1 ton of marketable material. In the late 19th century, Cwmorthin was known locally as “the slaughterhouse” for its propensity to slay workers in fatal accidents. From here, the path runs down a desolate valley before dropping into Blaenau Ffestiniog, where I find a good cafe, Burrito Blasus, to fire me up the last miles into Llan Ffestiniog.

I stay in the Y Pengwern, a community-owned pub that has an excellent, friendly bar and basic rooms and food. Outside, a storm is buffeting the building, but the next day the rain has stopped and I begin with a rare treat: a magical trail beside the tumbling River Cynfal. Here, thunderous white spumes of water and dark powerful currents punch their way through a deep mossy gorge overhung by ancient fern-decked oaks. One of the midstream rock towers is said to have once been the “pulpit” of a magician called Huw Llwyd and, according to the 18th-century traveller and naturalist Thomas Pennant, his voice could be heard at night, ringing down the enchanted chasms.

As I climb higher, the forest dwindles and I emerge on a remote, wind-scoured upland of crags and bog. Even here, you can come across fragments of old quarry workings. In one abandoned cottage, a jacket still hangs on a nail behind the door, as if the occupant had just flounced out: “I’ve had enough. I’m off to America.” Many Welsh slate workers did head to the US, fed up with the poor pay and the repeated failure of strikes. In 1901, sympathetic workers in England sent a two-and-a-half ton Christmas pudding, which briefly lifted morale, but after violent clashes the landowner won, and many quarrymen emigrated.

I stop and brew some tea on my stove. I have not seen another soul all day, yet Yr Wyddfa, with all its crowds, is less than 10 miles away. This remote walk takes me to the top of the old tramway incline down to Rhiwbach quarry – an epic approach, descending to the old engine house. This place peaked in the 1860s, and being so isolated, the miners lived in barracks, some of which remain.

Farther down the valley, I spot peregrine falcons nesting close to a tumbling waterfall, above the little village of Cwm Penmachno. A few miles on, the church of St Tudclud contains an astonishing collection of inscribed stones, including the Carausius Stone. This is thought to be the gravestone of a commander of the Roman empire, who pulled off a coup d’etat in AD286, making himself emperor of Britain and northern Gaul for seven years before his assassination.

Approaching Betws-y-Coed, the path joins the River Conwy, first singled out as a beauty spot in the 17th century, long before the Romantic poets seized on the idea. For me, it’s the finale to this fine route, but the path continues and I’ll be back soon for more mountains of slate and spectacular riverside walking.

The trip was provided by Walkers’ Britain & Europe, which offers Hiking the Snowdonia Slate Trail as a seven-day self-guided 83-mile walk, including six nights’ accommodation, breakfast, luggage transfers, digital app with tour information and navigations, and emergency hotline from £890pp, departing daily from April to October

Without a quick deal to move fertiliser through the strait, agricultural productivity would ‘significantly drop’.

A senior United Nations official has warned that parts of Asia and Africa could face a food security crisis unless Iran and the United States quickly agree on a UN-backed plan to move fertiliser through the embattled Strait of Hormuz.

UN ⁠Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said on Wednesday that it was “absolutely critical” that the two countries agree to the proposal within weeks as planting season approaches. It calls for a UN-staffed coordination centre in Oman to help register vessels and oversee their safe passage in the waterway, through which a large portion of key global fertiliser inputs traditionally flow.

“If we miss that planting season, the productivity of agriculture would significantly drop and the impact on prices will significantly increase,” Moreira da Silva told Reuters on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

Farmers operate strict crop calendars, and even slight delays could severely affect yield.

‘Negligible’ fertiliser shipments

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, with Iran targeting vessels in the strait and the US and Iran exchanging fire in and around the waterway.

The disruption has hit global supplies of urea, the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertiliser, as well as seaborne sulphur, a key input. Before the war, roughly a third of global urea shipments and nearly half of seaborne sulphur passed through the strait.

Although some ships have been able to sail through amid the crisis, fertiliser products have made up a “very negligible” share of moving cargo, according to the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute.

Moreira da Silva said the UN-backed fertiliser mechanism, drawn up in March, could be activated within seven to 10 days if both Iran and the US agree.

Under the plan, UN monitors would work alongside local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading. Ships would be tracked during transit, and additional inspections could ⁠be carried out if countries raised concerns about a vessel or its cargo, said Moreira da Silva. He did not say why the US and Iran have not yet agreed.

The passage of only five vessels per day through the Strait of Hormuz could keep fertiliser supplies flowing to countries in critical need, he added.

‘Let us do our job’

The UN mechanism could work alongside negotiations for a “comprehensive deal” to restore freedom of navigation in the strait, Moreira da Silva said.

Iran and the US have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed. Efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled over Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s insistence on addressing Iran’s nuclear programme from the outset.

“What we are telling them is, while you continue your discussions towards a comprehensive deal, let us work, let us do our job,” said Moreira da Silva.

His plea comes amid growing concern that fertiliser shortages could hit global food supplies.

In May, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned that fertiliser scarcity could tighten food supplies from late 2026 into 2027, and would likely hit countries facing climate or other crises much harder.

In South Asia, where most rely on imported fertiliser, farmers are already struggling because of soaring costs and fertiliser scarcity. On Wednesday, farmers in Spain took to the streets to protest rising production costs amid high oil and fertiliser prices.