LongTerm

After two years of relentless bombardment and ground invasions, Israel’s future in Gaza had appeared to be settled with the signing of United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan on October 9, 2025.

Under the terms of that agreement, Israeli forces were meant to withdraw behind what planners called the “Yellow Line”, maintaining control of 58 percent of the territory, with their full withdrawal to be set at a date to be determined.

That withdrawal hasn’t happened. In fact, in the months since, as well as killing at least 922 people in near-daily strikes on the enclave during the “ceasefire”, Israel has expanded its territory by about 11 percent.

According to satellite data gathered in March, it has also established at least 32 military outposts, a ground barrier and infrastructure along what was supposed to be a temporary line.

Since October last year, numerous humanitarian agencies, including Oxfam, have accused Israel of compounding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza by restricting deliveries of aid and other essential goods.

Then, on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will take over yet more territory in Gaza, telling a conference: “We are currently squeezing Hamas; we now control 60 percent of the territory of the Strip – you know this. We were at 50. My directive is to move to …,” he said, pausing briefly as someone in the crowd yelled, “100!”

“Let’s go step by step,” he responded, “First of all, 70. Let’s start with that. We’re pressing them from all sides, we’ll deal with the remnants.”

Al Jazeera contacted the Israeli prime minister’s office for clarification of this, but received no response by the time of publishing.

Can Israel just grab more land in Gaza?

“If Israel’s ultimate plan is to exercise permanent effective control over the entirety of the Gaza Strip, we are talking about unlawful annexation,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin, told Al Jazeera.

“As the International Court of Justice reaffirmed in a 2024 advisory opinion, annexation constitutes a violation of the bedrock prohibition of the acquisition of territory by force.”

Nevertheless, to date, since the onset of its war on Gaza in October 2023, Israeli forces have killed at least 72,819 men, women and children in Gaza, with many thousands more missing and presumed dead under the rubble.

By 2025, Israel had caused a confirmed famine in the enclave and has now decimated nearly all infrastructure needed to support life. It has done all this without experiencing any meaningful international sanctions and still takes part in numerous international sporting and entertainment competitions – despite protests.

Hopes that the US might enforce its own conditions on Israel also appear ill-founded. Since announcing a ceasefire in the enclave in October last year, the US has failed to react as Israel has expanded and entrenched its presence in Gaza, choking off access to about two-thirds of the enclave for its inhabitants by April 2026.

Al Jazeera also contacted the US State Department for comment about this, but received no response by the time of publishing.

Can Gaza’s population survive in such a reduced territory?

It’s very hard to tell. Several agencies, including the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), have expressed deep concern about how Gaza’s remaining population can continue to subsist in an ever-shrinking space.

Israel’s answer to this is simple. “The plan for voluntary emigration from Gaza will also be implemented, all at the proper time and in the proper manner,” Defence Minister Israel Katz wrote in a statement marking the killing of Hamas leader Mohammed Odeh on Wednesday this week.

“Voluntary emigration” is a term used by a number of Israel’s government ministers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Observers typically acknowledge that this means the ethnic cleansing of the enclave.

Israel’s Ministry of Defence did not respond to questions about this from Al Jazeera.

Is any of this legal?

No.

“The idea of permanently removing Palestinians from Gaza smacks of forced displacement and would also violate the fundamental right to self-determination of the Palestinian people,” Becker said. The principle of self-determination serves as a “cornerstone” of the UN Charter, he said.

However, Becker said, the spotlight of international attention has now shifted from the crisis in Gaza to the US and Israel’s war on Iran, as well as Israel’s actions in Lebanon, where it has occupied large swaths of the south of the country.

“While the Trump administration may be willing to diverge from Israel’s interests in seeking a resolution to the disastrous and illegal war that the United States started against Iran, the United States seems to have lost interest in Gaza or pushing for restraint on the part of Netanyahu’s government. It is unclear what role the so-called Board of Peace is willing to play in terms of maintaining a future for the Palestinians of Gaza,” he said.

Iran is reportedly working to solidify its control over the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. objections by seeking a joint deal to impose fees on ships transiting the strategic waterway with Oman. The move comes amid increasing hopes of a peace deal to end the war that began Feb. 28 and highlights just how difficult it will be to reach such an agreement. Iran’s closure of the Strait has created severe global economic impacts and spurred the Trump administration to stand up Project Freedom, a short-lived effort to provide military protection for ships stuck in the Persian Gulf and trying to get out.

Though U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted the Strait remain open and free of any tolls, Iran is in discussions with Oman, a U.S. ally, to impose financial burdens on vessels passing through the critical chokepoint, The New York Times reported. Together, the countries border both sides of the Gulf of Oman, through which any ship must pass to get into or out of the Strait.

Two people familiar with the discussions over management of the waterway said that “Iran was not planning a toll system, which would charge simply for transit,” according to the Times. Instead, the talks with Oman have “explored a proposal to charge vessels fees for services.”

“Oman had initially rejected a joint partnership with Iran on the strait but is now in discussion over a share of the revenues,” the newspaper stated, citing two Iranian officials familiar with the talks. “The officials said Oman told the Iranians that it was willing to use its influence with neighbors in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and with the United States to push the plan, having realized the potential economic benefits of a fee system.”

Iran and Oman “appear to be emphasizing that the proposed system would involve fees, not tolls, a legally significant distinction,” the Times posited. “A tolling system that simply charges ships to pass through the waterway would be illegal under international law, but charging fees for actual services rendered to vessels, such as waste disposal at a port, is allowed under certain circumstances.”

On Wednesday, Iran’s newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority declared on X that it has “defined the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz management supervision area” as the “line connecting Kuh Mobarak in Iran and the south of Fujairah in the UAE in the east of the strait to the line connecting the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm al-Qaiwain in the UAE in the west of the strait.”

Iran’s claimed area of control includes the coastal waters of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman in addition to its own.

In the face of Iran’s insistence on controlling the Strait, Rubio on Friday reiterated that the Trump administration rejects any form of Iranian tolling on the Strait.

“That’s just not acceptable. It can’t happen,” Rubio said of any Iranian effort to impose payment for the safe passage of vessels. “If that were to happen in the Straits of Hormuz, it will happen in five other places around the world.” 

Rubio added that NATO allies are beginning to think through a worst-case scenario if Iran refuses to open the Strait of Hormuz.

“We all would love to see an agreement with Iran in which the Straits are open and they abandon their nuclear ambitions and so forth,” he told reporters. “We also have to have a plan B…We have to start thinking about what do we do if, a few weeks from now, Iran decides ‘We don’t care, we’re going to keep the Straits closed. We’re going to sink any ship that doesn’t listen to us or doesn’t pay us.’ Then someone’s going to have to do something about it.”

Since implementing the blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, “U.S. forces have redirected 97 commercial vessels and disabled 4 since the start of the blockade,” CENTCOM claimed on X.

Regardless of the blockade, Japan is anticipating the arrival of the first tanker full of oil that transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began.

The Idemitsu Maru, a very large crude carrier that passed through the waterway in late April, could dock as soon as Monday, according to the trade ministry. Hauling two million barrels of Saudi crude, the vessel is on track to arrive at Idemitsu Kosan Co.’s Aichi refinery, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a briefing document on Friday, according to Bloomberg News.

The announcement highlights the difficult choices many nations now have as a result of the war. Japan is a key U.S. ally and risks running afoul of Trump, who maintains opposition to Iranian control of the vital waterway, including tolls on shipping levied by Iran, something Trump vehemently opposes. But Japan is also one of the world’s importers of Middle Eastern oil and the inability to get what it needs as a result of the Iranian Strait closure is having dramatic economic effects.

Most of the ships passing through the Strait under the new Iranian system “were linked to Southeast Asian nations that maintain friendly relations with Iran,” the official state broadcaster IRIB claimed on Friday in a post on X.

There has been a large increase in the number of Iranian-trading tankers at anchor off the country’s main oil export port of Kharg Island in the past week, according to the Windward maritime intelligence firm’s multi-source intelligence (MSI) analysis.

“MSI images show 27 tankers off Kharg Island as of May 21, including 18 assessed as very large crude carriers (VLCC),” Windward reported. “This has expanded from 14 tankers a week ago on May 14, a 93% increase. All were ‘dark’ and not broadcasting their position via AIS.”

Windward “assesses the majority of VLCCs at anchor off Kharg Island are being used for floating storage. About two-thirds of Iranian-trading tankers are now constrained in the Gulf of Oman or Arabian Gulf by the U.S. blockade. The remaining third are either waiting at ports off China or at anchor off the Riau archipelago, in Malaysia’s EEZ.”

UPDATE: 5:25 PM EDT –

Trump convened a meeting with his senior national security team on the war with Iran on Friday morning, Axios reported Friday evening, citing two U.S. officials.

The president “is seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran barring a last-minute breakthrough in negotiations, sources who have spoken directly with the president say,” the news outlet stated.

Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and other officials attended the meeting along with Trump, the sources told Axios.

Hours later, Trump issued his cryptic message on Truth Social about not attending his son’s wedding due to “circumstances pertaining to Government.”

Iran insists it is ready with new tactics, weapons and a threat to extend the conflict beyond the region should a new round of fighting break out.

UPDATES

There are growing indications that the U.S. and Iran could be moving closer to a deal to end the war. However, both sides are poised to resume fighting as major sticking points remain over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the future of its ballistic missile arsenal as well as U.S. sanctions.

In a sign that progress has been made in talks to reach a deal, Pakistani and Qatari negotiators are now in Tehran.

“Field Marshal Asim Munir, is traveling to Tehran on Friday in an effort to reach a deal under which the U.S. and Iran would agree to end the war and launch negotiations for a broader agreement,” Axios reported on Friday, citing a Pakistani security source.

For Arteta, building a legacy of sustained success is the ambition. Winning once is impressive, but repeating it is the mark of a truly great team.

With the Spaniard’s contract up at the end of the next season, the immediate priority for all parties is to agree an extension.

That process is under way and will accelerate after the Champions League final, with a will from all parties to have the new contract tied up before next season.

The expectation is Arteta will sign a new contract that will earn him a sharp increase on his current financial package of a basic £10m per season plus a further £5m for Champions League qualification.

There has been some internal talk, too, about Berta possibly engaging in conversations to extend his contract having been linked with potential moves to Saudi Arabia.

Arsenal are a club now moulded in Arteta’s image, with his job title changing from head coach to manager in September 2020.

The manager sits on the football leadership team with Kroenke, Garlick, James King and Berta. It is that five-man group that makes decisions on the direction of football at the club.

Arteta’s coaching staff are like him – passionate and intense, with even the analysts shouting from the stands.

And the manager was joined last summer by long-term friend and former team-mate Gabriel Heinze, who is an assistant coach. The Argentine has had a big impact this season, and has introduced a motivational huddle for defenders before each game.

Arteta is very hands-on and knows when to make an impact on his players with a strong telling-off and when he should coach.

But he has become good at delegating, too, with all of the backroom team delivering sessions so the squad don’t get tired of hearing one voice.

And now Arteta has guided this group to silverware, the focus can shift to the next campaign.

Arsenal are keen to recruit a midfielder, left-winger and striker, but we should expect a sharper focus on outgoings after last year’s £250m splurge.

The only senior player to depart last summer was Albert Lokonga.

This time, Arsenal have already agreed to sell defender Jakub Kiwior to Porto for an initial £14.7m. It is understood Christian Norgaard, who arrived in a deal worth up to £15m, will be allowed to leave, and the club are expected to listen to offers for Ben White, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Fabio Vieira.

Arsenal are also giving consideration to a significant homegrown sale that would represent ‘pure profit’ on their balance sheet.

There have been internal discussions about selling Nwaneri, who is on loan at Marseille, or Lewis-Skelly though the latter’s emergence as a genuine central-midfield option for Arteta in recent weeks has been noted.

There is also a desire to keep the wage bill manageable. That is easier said than done, though, with defender Jurrien Timber and midfielder Declan Rice both in line for new deals in the not-too-distant future and Gabriel Magalhaes, William Saliba, Lewis-Skelly, Saka and Nwaneri having recently renewed their contracts.

With lucrative bonuses to be paid to players in light of this season’s success – not to mention the expectation Arteta’s salary will move closer to the £20m mark – keeping a rein on the club’s overheads will not be easy.

There is a growing sense behind the scenes the club must start planning a squad rebuild given a number of key players are in their late 20s.

This summer, they have a keen interest in Leicester teenager Jeremy Monga, and with Dowman, Marli Salmon, Edwin and Holger Quintero and Lewis-Skelly all in their teens, there is hope the rebuild may not prompt a noticeable drop in levels.

Caracas, April 15, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued two new general licenses on Tuesday facilitating transactions with Venezuelan state institutions.

 for Venezuela on Tuesday: a commercial license (No. 56) and a financial license (No. 57), signaling a partial easing of restrictions while maintaining key controls.

General License 56 (GL56) authorizes US entities to negotiate and sign “contingent contracts” for future commercial operations in Venezuela. This allows firms to move forward with agreements, investments, or projects, though their final execution remains subject to separate OFAC approval.

The waiver maintains important restrictions, including a ban on payments in gold or cryptocurrencies, as well as prohibitions on transactions involving China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Cuba. It likewise forbids transactions involving Venezuelan debt and does not unblock currently frozen Venezuelan assets.

For its part, General License 57 (GL57) permits a broad range of financial operations with the Venezuelan Central Bank (BCV), as well as Venezuela’s public banks: Banco de Venezuela, Banco Digital de los Trabajadores, Banco del Tesoro, and entities in which these institutions hold a 50 percent or greater stake.

The allowed transactions include opening and managing accounts, conducting US dollar transfers, issuing loans, and providing banking services. The BCV was sanctioned in April 2019, effectively isolating Venezuela from international financial circuits and increasing costs for basic transactions.

The latest sanctions waivers are expected to facilitate financial flows to the Venezuelan economy, including the transfer of Venezuelan oil revenues that are currently controlled by the Trump administration. US authorities have returned a confirmed US $500 million out of an initial deal estimated at $2 billion, while US and Venezuelan officials have confirmed the purchase of US-manufactured medicines and hospital equipment using Venezuelan funds.

Analyst Hermes Pérez warned that reincorporation into the SWIFT system and establishment of US-based accounts could take several months due to security and technological requirements. Other economists argued that GL57 could allow the Central Bank to stabilize the Venezuelan foreign exchange system.

For several years, a parallel exchange rate between the US dollar and the Venezuelan bolívar has coexisted with the official one set by the Central Bank, often with a gap above 50 percent that fueled distortions in retail activities and currency speculation.

Since the January 3 military strikes and kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has issued several licenses to expand US influence in the Caribbean nation, particularly in key economic sectors such as hydrocarbons and mining.

In parallel, Venezuelan authorities have promoted several pro-business reforms, while multiple Trump officials and corporate executives have come the South American country and held meetings with the acting government led by Delcy Rodríguez.

The latest waivers coincided with the visit to Caracas of a US Department of Energy delegation led by Assistant Secretary Kyle Haustveit. Rodríguez hosted the official on Wednesday in a work meeting at the presidential palace.

During a short, televised intervention, Rodríguez argued that OFAC licenses do not provide sufficient “legal certainty” and reiterated calls for Trump to lift unilateral coercive measures against the country.

“An investor requires greater legal certainty. A license does not provide long-term legal guarantees because it is subject to temporality,” she argued. Rodríguez claimed Washington and Caracas have “enough maturity” to establish “long-term” energy cooperation ties.

“We are working very hard on changes that can attract investment, and which can build an energy cooperation agenda with the United States,” she said.

Rodríguez additionally disclosed recent meetings with representatives from ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, stating that authorities have “taken into account recommendations” from oil majors in recent legislative overhauls. Both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips refused to accept hydrocarbon reforms under former President Hugo Chávez in the 2000s, later securing multi-billion-dollar arbitration awards against the Caracas as compensation for the nationalization of their assets.

Haustveit and the Energy Department delegation were also present on Monday during the signing of agreements with Chevron that granted the Texas-based conglomerate an increased stake in the Petroindependencia joint venture and awarded an additional extra-heavy crude bloc for exploration to the Petropiar mixed company. Chevron owns minority stakes in both joint enterprises with Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA.

Shell, Eni and Repsol are among the other energy giants to have recently advanced in deals with the Venezuelan government under the improved conditions of the new Hydrocarbon Law.

US Chargé d’Affaires in Venezuela Laura Dogu was also present at the Chevron deal-signing ceremony and the meeting with Haustveit’s delegation. However, the White House announced Wednesday that her post will be taken over by veteran diplomat John Barrett.

Barrett, who previously served as chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy in Guatemala since January 21, 2026, was recently accused by Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo of interference during judicial elections for the Constitutional Court held in March.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.