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USC, Notre Dame renew rivalry series with a key adjustment

USC coach Lincoln Riley said he is glad to have the Trojans’ annual rivalry game with Notre Dame back without compromising the Trojans’ biggest need.

The schools announced they agreed to a four-year series starting in 2030 during Week 1 of the season at the Coliseum. The following year the teams will play in Week 1 at Notre Dame Stadium. The 2032 and 2033 games will be played during Week 1-3 of the season.

“We felt like the best thing for our program was to play this game early in the season,” Riley said. “As I’ve said publicly, we’re a part of a conference. We have a conference schedule to answer to. We don’t make our own schedule, we don’t choose our own kickoff times. And so with that, we have much less flexibility and so it made more sense for us to play this game in a traditional nonconference window.”

Riley, who took many jabs locally and nationally for letting one of college football’s most prestigious rivalry series expire, has been steadfast in noting the inequity between USC playing Notre Dame amid a grueling Big Ten schedule and independent Notre Dame’s ability to surround the contest with less taxing matchups to aid its College Football Playoff push.

Ultimately, both schools said they valued the rivalry and they found a way to reach an agreement announced Monday.

USC owns a 37-53-5 all-time record against Notre Dame, excluding the Trojans’ 2005 victory, which was later vacated due to NCAA sanctions (original record: 38-53-5). Riley is 1-3 during his Trojans tenure against the Irish. The teams battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh.

“I think this benefits everyone,” Riley said. “I think this benefits USC. I think this benefits Notre Dame. I think this benefits college football. This is important. We know its important to our fan base, we know it’s important to alumni, we know it’s important to former players and coaches.”

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Though California could be key to House control, it now has few battlegrounds

The nation is set to have its least competitive congressional election cycle in years by some measures, with California partly driving the shift.

The redistricting carried out in California and nine other states since 2024 has left the nation with an unusually low number of truly competitive districts, narrowing the battle for U.S. House control in this year’s historically consequential midterms cycle to a few dozen races at best.

In California, that looks like a paradox: The state has both a shrinking number of political battlegrounds and a handful of critical races that could help decide which party controls the House. Both are a result of Proposition 50, the Democratic-led, voter-passed redistricting effort designed to offset new maps drawn by Republicans in Texas and other states.

Only three California races are rated as competitive by Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan analyst, compared with 12 races in 2024 and nine in 2022, according to a Times analysis of Cook data.

California was also the biggest driver in the nationwide decline of competitive seats, according to a separate Cook analysis released Wednesday. Six of the 14 U.S. House seats that dropped out of the swing-seat zone in 2026 were in the Golden State.

“There’s no question that we’re seeing the consequence” of the state’s redistricting, “of having fewer competitive districts,” said Michael Latner, a professor of political science at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.

That doesn’t dilute the key role California is expected to play in Democrats’ effort to win the House majority, however. The new map made some blue seats safer and gave the party the chance to flip up to five red seats.

“The path to the House majority still runs through California,” said Anna Elsasser, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who said the party is investing heavily to flip those seats.

‘Not backing off’

The fight for the majority at the halfway point of President Trump’s second term is fierce. Republicans, who control both chambers of Congress, face headwinds fueled by voters’ feelings on the economy and the war in Iran. Democrats have built their campaigns around Americans’ economic frustration in an attempt to win the House majority and regain some power in Trump’s Washington.

Having more safe seats positions California to have a greater effect on the election, said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego, and in Congress afterward, where the state is expected to have a large blue delegation.

The less-competitive map is a return to the 2000s for California, when the state’s two parties agreed on a congressional map that created safe districts for both, Kousser said.

That decade saw fewer competitive House races before new maps created more battleground areas in 2010 and 2020, the result of regular redistricting that occurs every decade after the U.S. census.

The shift in the state’s competitive seats caused by Proposition 50’s partisan redistricting was so acute because the existing 2020 map was relatively neutral, Cook senior editor David Wasserman said in the report. In Florida, Missouri and Texas, by contrast, the maps Republicans replaced were already partisan, making the shifts less extreme.

Three of the seats Democrats targeted with Proposition 50 are rated as solidly blue, while two present fights: the Central Valley seat held by Republican David Valadao, the state’s only toss-up race per Cook, and the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Darrell Issa in the San Diego area, where the redrawn district now slightly favors Democrats.

Just one seat Republicans hope to flip is rated competitively by Cook, that of Democrat Adam Gray in the Central Valley. Democrats are slightly more favored there under the new map, but it presents a challenge for both parties.

Both parties view California’s three most competitive races as key to win, and each is putting resources toward a few additional contests.

“We’re not backing off a single seat in California,” said Christian Martinez, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “We’re on offense.”

Shrinking battlegrounds nationwide

This year’s push by Republicans to redo state maps ahead of the November election — and California’s move to respond in kind — was without precedent. Ten states approved new maps; before this year, only two states had voluntarily redrawn maps between censuses for partisan advantage since 1970, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

It was partly enabled by a spring Supreme Court decision that cleared the way for states to redraw their election maps to eliminate voting districts that were drawn with race as a consideration.

The 10 new maps supercharged an ongoing national trend of polarization that has seen the number of competitive seats shrink over the last 30 years. The country used to see election cycles with as many as 50 seats rated as toss-ups, said Erin Covey, who leads the Cook Political Report’s U.S. House coverage, something that has not happened since 2010. As of this week, just 18 of 435 House districts are rated as toss-ups by Cook.

California is not alone in having fewer battlegrounds; no state has a high concentration of competitive seats this cycle. Michigan had four under Cook’s ratings, and Pennsylvania, Iowa, New York and Texas each had three as of this week.

That could be unhealthy for democracy, experts said. Voters can feel as though their votes matter less, and it may contribute to negative public opinion about how the electoral system functions, Latner said.

“The very premise of a free republic is that you are going to have differences in views,” Latner said. “The way those differences get resolved is through electoral competition.”

The erosion of “free and fair competition … is a threat to all voters, regardless of their partisanship,” he added.

Eyes on key races

In California’s most competitive race, Valadao is being challenged in the redrawn 22nd District by progressive college professor Randy Villegas. Republicans are bullish about their chances to retain the seat.

In the neighboring 13th District, which the new map aimed to make safer for Democrats, Gray faces former Stockton mayor and Marine veteran Kevin Lincoln. Also important for both parties is the battle for the 48th District, the seat vacated by Issa. Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, faces Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member.

Republicans have also targeted Rep. Derek Tran’s Democratic seat in the 45th District, another former battleground that Proposition 50 made safer for Democrats, and three other seats that Cook rates as solidly Democratic.

Democrats’ safer flips target Northern California’s 1st and Sacramento County’s 6th districts. They also expect to gain a seat in the new 41st District, which now covers parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties. The new map gave Democrats a Democratic voter registration edge there and forced Republican incumbent Ken Calvert to run in the newly drawn 40th District against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim.

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Why Saudi Arabia holds the key to Palestinian statehood | Opinions

Nearly eight decades after the establishment of Israel, the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state remains the defining question of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Wars have been fought, peace treaties signed and diplomatic initiatives launched, yet this central strategic issue remains unresolved.

Today, Saudi Arabia is at the forefront of the efforts to establish a Palestinian state and deliver a lasting peace arrangement with Israel. Its commitment to the issue is made clear by its decision to cosponsor the creation of the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution in 2024, which is currently meeting in Rome.

King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are following in the footsteps of successive Saudi monarchs. For more than half a century, the kingdom has maintained a remarkably consistent position. The question has never been whether peace with Israel is possible, but whether the political conditions required to make such a peace comprehensive, legitimate and irreversible were present.

Within that framework, recognition of Israel and the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state are parallel components of a single settlement. Neither is intended to precede the other.

That doctrine originated under King Faisal, who made Palestinian self-determination a central pillar of Saudi national security policy. His successors preserved the principle while adapting its diplomatic expression to changing regional realities. The objective remained constant even as the diplomatic environment evolved.

The Fahd Plan of 1981 – named after King Fahd – translated that doctrine into a formal peace proposal calling for Israeli withdrawal from occupied Arab territories and recognition of Palestinian national rights. Two decades later, the Crown Prince and later King Abdullah expanded the same strategic logic through the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Israel was offered comprehensive peace and normal relations with the Arab world in return for withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967 and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

The current Saudi leadership therefore inherits an established strategic doctrine rather than an unresolved policy debate. Their responsibility is to determine whether today’s diplomatic environment can finally satisfy conditions that have remained fundamentally unchanged for decades.

That continuity also reflects a broader question of state legitimacy. For the Saudi monarchy, support for Palestinian statehood has never been solely a matter of foreign policy. It has become one of the enduring pillars of the kingdom’s political and religious legitimacy, rooted in the monarch’s role as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and reinforced by the kingdom’s longstanding position within both the Arab and Islamic worlds.

The significance of that continuity became clearer after the Abraham Accords of 2020. By establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later joined by Morocco and Sudan, the accords demonstrated that Arab-Israeli normalisation could advance without progress on Palestinian statehood. They reshaped regional diplomacy, but they neither resolved the Palestinian question nor completed the wider peace process.

Successive US administrations have regarded Saudi participation as the decisive missing element. The Abraham Accords could expand without Riyadh, but they could not acquire their full strategic significance without the kingdom’s participation.

The Trump administration has once again placed Saudi-Israeli normalisation at the centre of its regional diplomacy. But this diplomatic push has to be evaluated in the larger post-October 7 context.

The war in Gaza created an entirely new diplomatic environment. The subsequent ceasefire initiative and the establishment of the Board of Peace introduced a framework intended to end the conflict, stabilise the territory and begin reconstruction. Their significance lies not in replacing a political settlement, but in creating conditions under which one might become possible.

For the kingdom, however, the essential political requirement remains unchanged: the actual and irreversible establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.

That position rests upon mutually reinforcing political, religious and economic foundations. The monarch governs not only as head of state but also as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, a responsibility carrying religious authority throughout the Islamic world. Any decision concerning recognition of Israel would therefore require both political approval and broad religious legitimacy. Such legitimacy could not credibly rest upon promises of future negotiations. It would require the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.

The kingdom’s wider influence reinforces that position. It is by far the Arab world’s largest economy, representing about one-third of total Arab economic output. The kingdom is the only regional member of the G20, one of the world’s leading energy superpowers and the world’s leading crude oil exporter. It is also the Middle East’s principal economic engine. Combined with its religious standing, these factors give Saudi decisions consequences extending far beyond bilateral diplomacy.

The implications would reach well beyond the kingdom itself. Several major Arab states, including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Algeria, have not recognised Israel. Their decisions are sovereign, but a Saudi-Israeli settlement founded upon Palestinian statehood would nevertheless transform the political environment in which those decisions are made.

Lebanon illustrates the point. Washington is encouraging Beirut to move towards formal relations with Israel as part of a broader effort to stabilise the Israeli-Lebanese frontier. The domestic political cost of such a decision, however, would look fundamentally different after a Saudi-backed settlement based upon Palestinian statehood than before one.

The same logic extends across the wider Muslim world. Major influential countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malaysia have withheld recognition of Israel because the Palestinian question remains unresolved. A settlement accepted by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques and accompanied by the establishment of a Palestinian state would compel those governments to follow. It would remove the principal political and religious obstacles to reconsidering their positions.

This is what ultimately distinguishes Saudi Arabia from the earlier Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia’s participation would be different in kind, not merely in scale, carrying political, economic and religious significance across the Arab and Muslim worlds.

Whether the current diplomatic process can ultimately reach that point remains uncertain. Israel, the Palestinians, the United States, the European Union and certain regional governments all have indispensable roles to play. The final Saudi decision, however, rests with King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Within the strategic framework they have inherited, Palestinian statehood and recognition of Israel are not sequential steps but parallel obligations. Neither can acquire lasting legitimacy without the other.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Key deals this week: Stripe, IBM, Repligen, LXP Industrial Trust and more (STRIP:Private)

Business mergers and acquisitions concept. Share acquisition, asset business acquisition, amalgamation. Business review and development model. The abbreviation M and A on smart background, copy space.

Parradee Kietsirikul

Here’s a list of key deals reported across sectors this week:

  • Payments firm Stripe (STRIP) is in discussions to acquire the AI startup OpenRouter for about $10B.
  • Arcadis (ARCVF) rose 12% in Amsterdam trading after a report that the Dutch

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Key takeaways as Andy Burnham becomes PM

In his first speech in Downing Street, Burnham announced he would “end rough sleeping in our country”.

This was swiftly followed by a No 10 press release promising an extra £340m for the task over the next five years.

He also promised a new 10-year plan for Britain – to be unveiled later this year – and to build a new economy, putting “life’s essentials back under public control”.

But arguing that people also needed “breathing space now”, he said announcements on tackling the cost of living would start on Tuesday.

Other changes he promised included changing the education system to help young people into work, building more council homes, and honouring commitments to fund defence while sticking to the UK’s spending and debt rules.

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Brits struggle to get medical help abroad – for one key reason

Research shows language barriers on holiday are among the biggest obstacles when falling ill abroad — but a new service aims to help Brits in need.

Just one in three holidaymakers feel confident they could adequately describe a medical problem to a doctor while overseas. A survey of 2,000 adults revealed that language remains one of the most significant obstacles when falling ill on holiday.

A mere 28% are confident they could comprehend medical advice given to them, and 13% have delayed seeking help for a medical issue while abroad because of issues with the language, or a lack of knowledge on how to get help in a different country.

Two thirds of travellers couldn’t request a new prescription if they urgently needed one, and wouldn’t know how to communicate that they were suffering an allergic reaction or had been bitten or stung.

Despite most holidaymakers being perfectly capable of ordering a drink or locating the nearest loo, a mere 5% bother to learn essential medical phrases before jetting off.

The research was commissioned by the Staysure, to launch its free 24/7 Travel Doctor service.

The service will enable travellers to speak to an English-speaking doctor or dentist in many worldwide locations via video call, arrange prescriptions, or make an in-person appointment at a clinic or at their hotel when they need medical assistance abroad.

Spokesperson Simon McCulloch said: “I’m not surprised to see, in true British style, most of us would be able to order a beer in another language when we’re on holiday.

“But while we hope we never need to deal with a health issue while we’re away, the research shows a third of people have had to seek medical advice and come up against language barriers.

“While it’s good to be able to order a drink or ask for the bill in other languages, it’s arguably more important that travellers feel confident they can get the right medical assistance quickly if they’re ill or injured.

“We can’t be prepared for every single eventuality but knowing a few key phrases can help especially if you require fast care, have a medical condition or take medication.

“But the thought of speaking with a pharmacist or doctor abroad can be a worrying and daunting experience especially with language barriers.

“In fact, we’ve already seen 50% of those who use the service opt for a video consultation with an English-speaking doctor taking that stress away.”

Can you tell the difference between ordering a coffee and a cry for medical help? Take the quiz now to find out.

The study found when it comes to communicating abroad, 59% assume they’ll be able to get by in English when travelling to a non-English speaking country. While 37% simply rely on translation tools, and 12% would ask AI to understand.

Others admit they would turn to alternative ways to communicate, including using hand signals or gestures (70%), speaking English slowly (10%) or asking someone else to translate (nine%). With 39% even admitting to putting on a foreign accent to try and communicate better.

But these tactics don’t always pay off, with 39% ending up in an embarrassing or difficult situation due to language mix-ups.

Simon McCulloch, from Staysure, added: “When we travel, we don’t ever imagine we are going to end up needing medical help, but there are many occasions where we do.

“That’s why we launched the free 24/7 service, providing travellers with that extra layer of confidence. Our research also found that 79% of respondents said they would be inclined to use the service”.

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Key takeaways from Donald Trump’s controversial speech on election security | Donald Trump News

United States President Donald Trump has delivered an extraordinary primetime speech, alleging government “cover-ups” and “vulnerability” in the nation’s electoral system.

But experts were quick to point out that Trump failed to present any conclusive evidence that past presidential elections had been swayed by malfeasance.

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In many ways, Trump’s speech on Thursday revisited any themes familiar to the Republican leader.

He made broad accusations about a “deep state” conspiracy involving his Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and he lashed out at familiar foes, including the news media and China.

For years, Trump has spread baseless claims that his loss in the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” and “stolen”.

Trump stopped short of repeating his false claim that he had, in fact, won that race. But in his remarks, he sought to raise suspicion about the election’s outcome, pointing to declassified government documents.

Those files, however, painted a more nuanced picture than Trump portrayed, and they failed to substantiate his claims of a conspiracy.

After the speech, Democrats criticised Trump for attempting to mislead the public and reduce confidence in US electoral systems, with months to go until the November midterm election.

Here are the key takeaways from his address:

Trump claims China compromised election data

One of the biggest accusations of the night was levied against China, the US’s geopolitical rival.

“Starting during the 2020 election cycle, the People’s Republic of China carried out what is believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history,” Trump said near the outset of his speech.

He claimed that Beijing, through “illicit” means, had acquired 220 million US voter files, including names, addresses and party preferences.

“Think of that: Tens of millions of voters’ data in 18 states have been bought, stolen or hacked by China,” Trump said.

A spokesperson for China’s embassy denied such claims, saying the country “has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the US”.

Trump, however, did not say that the information had been used to influence any election.

But critics pointed out that such voter information is already publicly available. Some states even sell that public data, for prices ranging from $0 to $37,000, as the US Election Assistance Commission explained in a 2020 report.

The documents declassified by the White House also appeared to indicate Beijing was, at least in part, drawing from publicly available data. It did, however, express curiosity at China’s increasing interest in such information.

“While the PRC [People’s Republic of China] government has historically demonstrated interest in US elections, this is a newly-identified interest for this individual actor,” a heavily redacted assessment said.

“The US voter registration information is available for public download, with 2021 voter registration information available for some states.”

Trump claims a ‘deep state’ cover-up, vows retribution

In Thursday’s speech, Trump returned to a conspiracy theory that helped define his first successful bid for public office in 2016: that so-called “deep state” actors had sought to undermine his presidency.

He claimed there was a “shadow government” with “rogue bureaucrats” who attempted to cover up Chinese efforts to influence the 2020 vote.

They even sought to suppress information from his daily presidential brief, Trump alleged.

“ These were briefings I would get almost every day. Everything was kept out that was of importance,” he said.

Experts, however, have noted that presidential briefs are usually heavily curated to contain intelligence perceived to be of high importance.

An intelligence community report compiled in January 2021 assessed with “high confidence” that China had considered launching an influence campaign in 2020 — but that it eventually decided against it.

The report was declassified in March 2021. It contained a minority opinion that indicated China “took at least some steps” to undermine Trump’s re-election chances “primarily through social media and official public statements and media”.

The publication of the report would appear to contradict Trump’s claims of a “cover-up”.

Still, in his speech, Trump said he had instructed his top law enforcement officials to “fire those involved in the cover-up and to file criminal charges, if appropriate, against these people”.

Trump says public ‘blatantly lied to’ about election security

Critics had warned that Trump could use Thursday’s speech to undermine confidence in US elections by spreading falsehoods.

Some television news outlets, including ABC, NBC and CNN, even opted not to air the speech in full on their main broadcast channels.

The timing of the speech is significant, as it comes less four months ahead of the midterm elections, which decide control of Congress.

Trump did indeed spend part of his speech voicing allegations that American voters had been deceived by the same “deep state” actors he accused of targeting him.

“For many years, Americans were blatantly lied to about the security of our election infrastructure, including voting machines and ballot counting systems,” Trump said.

“They’re vulnerable, and they’re easily compromised, and people within our government knew that.”

But the declassified documents released by the White House did not appear to contain any major revelations about such claims. Potential vulnerabilities have long been known, and local and federal officials have sought to address them.

The fact that elections are administered on the state and local level has also been cited as a barrier against any widespread tampering.

Given the decentralised nature of US election administration, the US intelligence community has long assessed that large-scale voting manipulation would be all but impossible.

After Trump’s speech, Democrats dismissed Trump’s remarks as distortions designed to disincentivise voters from participating in elections.

“President Donald Trump continues to lie, distort the truth to try to sow doubt and suppress the 2026 election,” US Representative Jason Crow said in a video statement. “He doesn’t want Americans to vote. He doesn’t want their voice to be heard.”

Trump rehashes Michigan investigation

Trump made a gesture at unity in Thursday’s speech, arguing that election security should not be a “partisan issue”.

“It should cause to unite us, not to divide us,” he said at one point.

But the Republican leader fired off dubious claims against targets big and small.

He called for broadcasters that did not air his speech to lose their licenses. He berated California as “worse than any third world country”. And he rehashed a incident in the swing state of Michigan that took place well before the 2020 election.

The case involved allegations of fake voter registration forms. But the forms were not processed and did not have any bearing on that year’s election; they were flagged months before the vote took place.

The state Attorney General’s Office probed the incident, as did the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Neither found evidence that fraud had been successfully committed. It is believed that the forms were not part of an election scam but rather an attempt to meet workplace quotas.

Still, Trump portrayed the incident as a significant breach in Thursday’s speech.

“It was pay, play, and cheat,” he alleged, proceeding to blame former President Biden for failing to pursue the case. “The Biden Department of Justice slow-walked the investigation and killed it.”

He added that he had instructed the FBI to re-open its investigation, although the declassified documents the White House released did not appear to provide new evidence in the case.

Speech sought to cast doubt, but contained few revelations

Trump’s speech had been hyped as a major moment in the president’s second term.

On Tuesday, when the primetime address was first announced, Trump said it would contain “really big news”. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, warned reporters earlier in the day that the speech would “shock”.

But Democrats and election experts have argued that the speech was underwhelming — and would mostly serve to fire up Trump’s Republican base.

Indeed, Trump opened his remarks on Thursday with a resume of his second-term accomplishments, from border security to efforts to combat crime.

And he closed his speech with an appeal to pass the SAVE America Act, a piece of legislation he has repeatedly championed to heighten voter requirements.

The bill would increase voter identification standards, requiring proof of citizenship in the form of documents like birth certificates and passports that some US citizens may not have.

Rights groups have argued the requirements could disenfranchise some citizens.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, political analyst Eric Ham said the speech was yet another push in Trump’s effort to bring elections under federal control.

“This is something that the president has had an ambition of doing for quite some time, and I think what we saw tonight was another shot across the bow at trying to fundamentally change elections,” Ham said.

Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, also decried the speech as a distraction from Trump’s political woes ahead of the midterms.

“Donald Trump is a feeble, unhinged conspiracy-peddling 80-year old failed President,” Jeffries wrote on social media. “The economy is a disaster under this guy and the American people know it.”

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New Zealand v Ireland: Robert Baloucoune starts as Irish recall key men for Nations Championship game

Fit-again wing Robert Baloucoune returns to the Ireland line-up for Saturday’s much-anticipated Nations Championship game against New Zealand in Auckland.

Baloucoune, who won the Six Nations Rising Player award after starring in Ireland’s Triple Crown campaign earlier this year, missed the wins over Australia and Japan with a hamstring issue.

Head coach Andy Farrell recalls a host of key players after fielding a heavily rotated in last week’s 36-20 victory over Japan, with the return of captain Dan Sheehan, prop Tadhg Furlong and fly-half Sam Prendergast among nine changes.

Tom O’Toole, Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Stuart McCloskey and Jimmy O’Brien are the six players retained in the line-up.

Having beaten the Wallabies and Brave Blossoms, Ireland aim to round out the southern hemisphere leg of their Nations Championship campaign with a statement win at Eden Park (08:10 BST).

The All Blacks, who beat France and Italy in their first two games, have not lost at the Auckland venue since 1994, a run of 52 Tests.

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Key type of sugar found near center of Milky Way galaxy

The Artemis II crew captured this photo of the Milky Way. Scientists said Monday that they’ve discovered erythrulose, a sugar also found in raspberries, in a gas cloud near the center of the galaxy. Photo by NASA/UPI | License Photo

July 13 (UPI) — Scientists have discovered erythrulose, a type of sugar also found in raspberries, in a gas cloud near the center of the Milky Way, the galaxy that also includes our solar system.

This is the first time that researchers have discovered this sugar outside our solar system, although they have found other sugars, including ribose and glucose, in meteorites and asteroids. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Astronomy.

Along with water and carbon, sugars are a key ingredient in life as we know it. They help to provide energy and serve other important purposes, researchers said.

“We were able to achieve this detection thanks to the combination of exceptionally sensitive observations, extensive frequency coverage and highly accurate laboratory spectroscopic data,” said Dr. Izaskun Jiménez-Serra, study co-author and staff researcher at the Spanish National Research Council. “In addition, our astronomical target is one of the richest chemical inventories in the galaxy, which enhances the probabilities of detection.”

Jiménez-Serra said erythrulose is “particularly relevant for the field of origins of life.”

Erythrulose is made up of four carbon atoms. It was confirmed by use of the Yebes 40-meter telescope and IRAM 30-meter telescopes in Spain, the study said.

The discovery is notable in part because it shows researchers that erythrulose could be found in the interstellar medium before finding its way into rocky planets such as Earth when they first formed, rather than later developing on the young planet. Lab experiments had shown that not enough of the sugar could have formed on pre-life Earth.

“The findings suggest that erythrulose can be made from simpler molecules on dust grains in space, and may then become part of more complex chemical systems,” researchers said.

Erythrulose is important because it changes the makeup of threose, another sugar, which in turn may be part of the origin of the nucleic acids that became RNA and DNA.

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FIFA World Cup: Key players to watch as France play Spain in semifinal | World Cup 2026 News

Spain-France clash is filled with superstars like Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and Lamine Yamal, among others.

European giants France and Spain will compete for a place in the World Cup final on Tuesday, as the first semifinal kicks off in Dallas.

Both sides have some star names among their ranks, with the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Lamine Yamal set to play a key role in securing their country’s place in Sunday’s final.

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Here’s a closer look at some of the key players who will decide Tuesday’s first semifinal.

Kylian Mbappe in action against Paraguay during their round of 16 match
Kylian Mbappe in action against Paraguay during their round of 16 match [Bill Streicher/Reuters]

Kylian Mbappe

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 8
  • Assists: 3
  • Minutes played: 563

The French captain has been in remarkable form at this World Cup, breaking numerous records along the way.

After bagging four goals in the group stages, Mbappe has now scored in every knockout round so far, and he has also provided a number of assists.

The Real Madrid forward is in the form of his life and is the biggest threat in a star-studded Les Bleus XI.

After scoring a hat-trick in a World Cup final loss to Argentina in Qatar, Mbappe will be determined to go one step further this year.

Michael Olise in action against Paraguay
Michael Olise in action against Paraguay [Bill Streicher/Reuters]

Michael Olise

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 0
  • Assists: 5
  • Minutes played: 488

Michael Olise may not have got himself on the scoresheet at this World Cup so far, but he is the player that has provided the most assists.

He has set up five goals for France, and his partnership with Mbappe has been a highlight of the tournament.

The Bayern Munich midfielder has the technical ability to unlock defences, and he will be a key attacking threat in the semifinal with Spain.

France’s Ousmane Dembele celebrates scoring their second goal against Morocco
France’s Ousmane Dembele celebrates scoring their second goal against Morocco [Mike Segar/Reuters]

Ousmane Dembele

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 5
  • Assists: 2
  • Minutes played: 492

The dynamic Paris-Saint Germain (PSG) forward came into this tournament looking for his first-ever World Cup goal. He now has five of them.

He scored a first-half hat-trick in a group game with Norway and also bagged the second in France’s 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarterfinals.

Les Bleus have been having their own Golden Boot competition, with Dembele pushing Mbappe all the way.

The pair have now scored 13 goals between them at this World Cup, a feat that has not been achieved by two players from the same country since Brazil’s Ronaldo and Rivaldo in 2002.

Spain’s Lamine Yamal celebrates after the match as Spain qualify for the semifinals
Spain’s Lamine Yamal celebrates after the match as Spain qualify for the semifinals [Gary Vasquez/Reuters]

Lamine Yamal

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 1
  • Assists: 0
  • Minutes played: 405

At a tournament where stars like Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane have been prolific, 18-year-old Lamine Yamal has just one goal to date, in a routine 4-0 group drubbing of Saudi Arabia.

Despite this, the Barcelona teenage sensation remains a key attacking threat for La Roja and scored against France in the semifinals of Euro 2024.

He was awarded player of the match for his performance in Spain’s quarterfinal win over Belgium, and he has also recorded the most successful dribbles at the tournament so far.

“I know I can contribute even if I don’t score. I know my movements draw in many opponents, so I do everything I can to help the team,” Yamal said after Spain’s victory over Belgium.

Mikel Oyarzabal, left, celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the round of 32 match between Spain and Austria
Mikel Oyarzabal, left, celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the round of 32 match between Spain and Austria [Etienne Laurent/AFP]

Mikel Oyarzabal

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 4
  • Assists: 1
  • Minutes played: 519

The Real Sociedad forward is Spain’s top scorer at this World Cup, and he will be La Roja’s biggest hope for goals in Tuesday’s semifinal.

He scored six goals in six games during World Cup qualification and has followed that up with four goals at the tournament proper.

Oyarzabal also has experience of scoring crucial goals at the business end of tournaments. He bagged an 86th-minute winner against England in the Euro 2024 final, proving he can perform under pressure on the biggest stage.

La Roja will hope for more of the same this week.

Mikel Merino celebrates scoring his team’s second goal against Belgium in the quarterfinals
Mikel Merino celebrates scoring his team’s second goal against Belgium in the quarterfinals
[Paul Ellis/AFP]

Mikel Merino

World Cup 2026 statistics:

  • Goals: 2
  • Assists: 0
  • Minutes played: 180

If Spain need a goal against France in the closing stages of the semifinal, then Luis de la Fuente will be turning to one man on his bench.

Mikel Merino has twice played the role of super-sub at this World Cup, coming off the bench to score late winners against Portugal and Belgium.

The Arsenal midfielder is unlikely to start against Les Bleus on Tuesday, but he remains a key part of Spain’s squad and will pose a real threat against tired legs towards the end of the match.

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Dearica Hamby’s relentless effort and loyalty helped her retain key role with Sparks

It was never actually in doubt. Dearica Hamby was going to stay a member of the Sparks. That was just how she worked.

Even when Nneka Ogwumike came into the fold and the frontcourt became crowded, Hamby didn’t doubt her decision to return to the organization that traded for her four years ago.

Loyalty mattered more than anything else.

“That’s who I am,” she said. “I don’t run away from things. I wanted to stay here and help L.A. get back to where it was and is capable of being.”

In a loaded frontcourt, the 32-year-old Hamby has still found ways to shine. Hamby has led the Sparks in scoring four times and led or tied for rebounding 16 times this season after signing a three-year, $3.5-million contract.

She ranks in the top 20 in the league in rebounds and field-goal percentage (plus 25th in scoring) and is eighth in offensive rebounds in establishing herself as an essential piece to the Sparks’ “win now” attempt.

“I think it’s the challenge, because we are so good and we have so much talent,” said Hamby, who is averaging 14.8 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 52.8% from the field. “You’re forced to produce, but it’s also a blessing. I know it’s probably hard for coach to manage the three’s playing time and stuff like that, but it’s a beautiful problem.”

Hamby was in the headlines when the Aces traded her after she was pregnant. In September of that year, she filed a federal discrimination complaint against the team and league, claiming she was traded because she was pregnant. The two sides resolved matters before trial.

The new CBA this year created a new rule that requires a pregnant player’s consent to be traded.

“I feel like she’s such an anomaly,” said forward Rae Burrell. “I remember when she had her son, and it was crazy because everybody was saying she was coming back so early, I thought that was insane, but now being her teammate, I see it, she’s just kind of a freak of nature, like she’s so athletic, she can do all types of things on the court that you think looks unorthodox, but she makes it happen, but also just love being her teammate. She’s just good people.”

Since that trade, she has been a regular in the Sparks’ starting lineup while averaging double-digit scoring and around eight rebounds per game. She’s one of the most efficient scorers in the league, too.

But Hamby’s games have been all over the board. Against the Aces, she missed all seven of her shots. Against Dallas and Indiana, she made six of eight shots. She’s had eight games with a shooting percentage above 60% and four games under 40%.

Sparks forward Dearica Hamby, left, tries to steal the ball from Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner during a game in May.

Sparks forward Dearica Hamby, left, tries to steal the ball from Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner during a game in Phoenix.

(Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Having the three frontcourt players has been an adjustment for coach Lynne Roberts to find how to implement them all in the offense.

“I’m trying to implement the new offense, we’re plugging pieces into play, and things that I may have been able to do last year as freely I’m not as able to do this year,” Hamby said. “So just adjusting for sure, but I think that’s across the board for everybody.”

Before the season, Roberts said that Cameron Brink would come off the bench and Hamby would start. Brink, the only natural center on the team, averages just 17.5 minutes per game primarily because of her 3.7 fouls.

“She’s my vet,” Brink said of Hamby. “I think she’s just such a grounding force for us, and she’s someone that does everything, so I just really feel like I learn from her every day, and I’m just very thankful to be in her presence.”

Hamby averages 3.2 fouls per game and has expressed frustration about the new officiating norms this season, but has avoided true foul trouble. She and Ogwumike work as two fours instead of a team with a traditional five.

“She has a lot of energy,” Ogwumike said. “I think she does a really good job of just having a high motor and going out there and kind of like doing the dirty work. I feel like it’s beneficial to have a loaded frontcourt, to be able to have so many different types of players and a depth where anytime one of us is in, there’s no letdown.”

The Sparks have been the worst defensive team in the league this season and struggled to score when point guard Kelsey Plum was out of the lineup with an ankle injury. Ogwumike might be the other veteran leader, but Hamby has stayed with this Sparks team the past two seasons while Ogwumike was in Seattle.

Now her role has changed, even with that loyalty. She’s playing just over a minute less and they’re asking for better defense and efficiency.

Hamby chose to come back. Now she’s choosing to help build the Sparks up.

“I know my usage is a lot lower,” Hamby said. “A goal of mine the last two seasons was to have those numbers, so to have the same numbers just at a more efficient rate, and so I mean offensively, but with like two fewer shots a game, that’s pretty impressive.”

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Key moments from former Qatar Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani’s life | Obituaries News

The architect of modern Qatar, former Emir ⁠Sheikh Hamad bin ⁠Khalifa Al Thani, has died at the age of 74.

Fondly known as Father Emir, ⁠Sheikh Hamad, who ruled Qatar from 1995 to 2013, leaves behind a legacy that includes sweeping economic, social and cultural reforms in Qatar, raising the Gulf country’s profile on the regional and global stage.

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During his 18-year rule, Qatar’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew more than 24-fold as the small nation of nearly 2.5 million people became one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Sheikh Hamad’s tenure also saw the adoption of Qatar’s permanent constitution and the launch of the Qatar National Vision 2030, a long-term strategy aimed at transforming the country into a knowledge-based economy and achieving sustainable development.

Here is a look at some key moments in the former Qatari emir’s life:

Path to leadership

Born in January 1952 in Doha, Sheikh Hamad was raised and received his early education in the city.

In 1971, he graduated from the British Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, United Kingdom, and joined the Qatar armed forces, where he reached the rank of major-general. He was credited with playing a pivotal role in developing the armed forces in terms of ordnance, according to a statement by the Amiri Diwan.

On May 31, 1977, Sheikh Hamad was appointed the heir apparent and minister of defence. On May 10, 1989, he was appointed the chairman of the Supreme Council for Planning, where he was tasked with developing Qatar’s social and economic policies.

After a successful career in the military and senior government positions, Sheikh Hamad assumed leadership of Qatar on June 27, 1995. He remained the ruler of Qatar until June 25, 2013, when he transferred power to his son, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Qatar former emir Sheikh Hamad
Sheikh Hamad, right, with his son Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani [Handout/The Amiri Diwan]

Economic transformation

Under Sheikh Hamad’s leadership, Qatar saw rapid economic growth driven by the expansion of its energy sector.

He viewed the country’s untapped North Field, which is the largest nonassociated natural gasfield in the world, as the cornerstone of Qatar’s future economic dominance, and invested heavily in the LNG sector. In 1996, the country began exporting LNG, with the first shipment sent to Japan.

According to the Amiri Diwan, in 2006, Qatar became the largest LNG exporter in the world, and in 2010, its LNG production capacity reached 77 million tonnes per annum. Qatar’s LNG exports currently represent 20 percent of the global market, it said.

Besides the energy sector, Sheikh Hamad also formulated comprehensive reconstruction plans which helped Qatar’s development in the education, healthcare, sports, culture and media sectors.

In October 2001, he established the Supreme Council for Economic Affairs and Investment to oversee the economy, energy and investment affairs and diversify local and foreign investments and sources of income.

Emir
Sheikh Hamad walks beside members of a security team as he arrives to attend the National Day celebrations in Doha, Qatar [File: Fadi Al-Assaad/Reuters]

Press freedom and launch of Al Jazeera

A few months after taking office as the emir of Qatar, in October 1995, Sheikh Hamad abolished the censorship of the local press, seeking to improve the country’s press freedom status.

In 1996, he launched the Al Jazeera Media Network, which resulted in “a new dawn” in the Arab and international media world, according to the Amiri Diwan.

Since its launch, Al Jazeera has become one of the world’s most prominent media outlets covering global news, geopolitics and underreported topics and giving a voice to minority communities through its stories.

In August 1995, Sheikh Hamad founded Qatar Foundation for Education, Science and Community Development, which helped expand the country’s influence in media, education, and innovation.

Qatar
Sheikh Hamad with his daughter Hind at the Arab League summit in Doha [File: Marwan Naamani/AFP]

Constitution and national vision

Sheikh Hamad played a key role in introducing democratic measures in the country after he assumed power. In March 1999, he introduced municipal elections, in which women were allowed to vote and stand as candidates.

On June 8, 2004, Sheikh Hamad led Qatar to adopt its first permanent constitution.

According to the Amiri Diwan, the permanent constitution sets out the country’s “preamble, the foundations of democratic rule” and lays out the “basic pillar” for society to guarantee the rights and freedoms of Qatar’s citizens.

In 2004, Sheikh Hamad launched “Qatar National Vision 2030” to guide the country’s long-term development and modernisation and help it transform into a knowledge-based economy.

Global profile

Qatar’s political influence today stretches across North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, with the country using its diplomacy to mediate several conflicts.

Sheikh Hamad drove the country’s mediation efforts in conflicts including the Hanish Islands dispute between Eritrea and Yemen in 1995, the Yemen war between 2007 and 2010, the Lebanese political crisis in 2008 and the Darfur peace process between 2010 and 2011, among others.

In October 2012, he became the first Arab leader to visit Gaza, since the imposition of a widespread international boycott of the Palestinian territory, which was spurred after Hamas began its rule in 2006.

Sheikh Hamad arrived with 90 tonnes of aid and pledged $400m to invest in housing and infrastructure, as he embraced the Hamas leadership of Gaza with an official visit, breaking the isolation of the Palestinian movement, much to the dismay of Israel, its allies, as well as the Western-backed Palestinian leaders in the occupied West Bank.

Besides diplomacy, the late former leader also focused on improving Qatar’s international status by projecting the country as a suitable venue for global sports and entertainment events.

In 2022, Qatar hosted the men’s FIFA World Cup, the world’s most-watched football tournament. Sheikh Hamad received rapturous applause from fans when he attended the tournament’s opening match.

Sheikh Hamad Qatar former emir Gaza
Sheikh Hamad, centre, and slain Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, third from left, arrive for a cornerstone-laying ceremony for Hamad, a new residential neighbourhood in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, October 23, 2012 [Mohammed Salem/Pool via Getty]

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Key deals this week: MGM, PERF, VRTX, and more (PPLI:NASDAQ)

M A - concept waiting for mergers and acquisitions.3D rendering on yellow background.

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Here’s a list of key deals reported across sectors this week:

  • MGM Resorts (MGM) has reportedly started discussions with People (PPLI) for a potential buyout deal after Barry Diller’s media company offered to acquire the casino giant in

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Trump administration rescinds key rule protecting endangered wildlife

July 10 (UPI) — The Trump administration on Friday rescinded a key provision of the Endangered Species Act that protected habitat crucial to imperiled wildlife.

For 50 years, the ESA definition of “harm” included not only specific species, but also their habitat from modification or degradation.

But on Friday, the administration said it was reversing the rule to focus on “actions that directly injure or kill listed wildlife.”

“For years, federal agencies abused the ESA to obstruct lawful land use and burden American families and businesses,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement.

“That approach turned routine activity into a regulatory trap, drove up costs that impacted people’s lives, and expanded federal authority beyond what Congress intended,” Burgum said. “This action restores common sense, respects private property, provides much-needed certainty for landowners and follows the statute Congress actually passed.”

Enacted in 1973, the ESA has played a vital role in maintaining biodiversity.

Conservation experts say the act was key in saving many species from extinction, including the whooping crane, bald eagle and gray wolf.

Environmental advocates have vowed to sue over the rule change.

“For the first time ever, a presidential administration now claims that species protected by the Endangered Species Act shouldn’t be safe from habitat modification that destroys where they live, raise their young, or search for food,” Earthjustice attorney Kristen Boyles said in a statement.

“Let’s be clear: there is no support for the Trump administration’s rule — no scientific support, no legal support, no public support,” Boyles added. “We will see the Trump administration in court.”

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TUI emails passengers with key change to flights ‘already booked’

Travellers have reacted with anger after the change was made to services on flights

TUI has emailed passengers telling them of an ‘important change’ to holidays already booked. Travellers have reacted with anger after the change was made to services on the flight – with alcoholic drinks off the menu.

In messages posted on Facebook pages from holiday travel companies, it emerged TUI is making the change from November 1. Anyone travelling long-haul with the company has been told that complimentary drinks will no longer be service in economy class.

Instead travellers will receive one complimentary beer or wine with the main meal. All other drinks will now have to be paid for – however, passengers travelling in Premium will continue to receive complimentary alcoholic drinks as part of their experience.

Anyone already booked is being offered a small amount of money back: “If you’ve already booked and paid for a long-haul holiday departing after 1st November, TUI has announced a £12.50 per person, each-way goodwill refund for affected customers.” Many have been sent an email with the subject in caps saying ‘IMPORTANT NEWS REGARDING A CHANGE TO YOUR HOLIDAY’.

The travel operator said: “Everyone will have their own opinion, but for some travellers this could take away a little of that ‘holiday starts on the plane’ feeling.”

TUI traveller Sharon said: “It would be interesting to see if this is reflected in the price.” Another user replied: “Sadly I think we know the answer to that!”

Jamie thought it was a good thing: “Probably a good thing with the number of alcohol related incidents onboard these long-haul holiday flights. “ However, Nigel was taking his trade elsewhere: “Plenty saying book with another airline, good luck with that, particularly if you do not have easy access to London airports.” One user said: “That is a tiny amount of refund.”

Some have not had nice experiences. Charlotte said: “Last time we did long haul paid premium it wasn’t loads of drinks it was moderated and disappointing for the amount of money we spent and rudeness of staff.” A user added: “It would make me consider another airline first. But I’ve had issues with TUI when we were supposed to go to Jamaica last year so already not in my good books. If the £12.50 was ongoing, that’s actually reasonable, but to have to pay for drinks moving forward sucks a bit.”

Graeme added: “This is a total joke.” Olive said: ”TUI can ram that nonsense. The whole idea of long haul is getting smashed.”

June added: “The drinks were never ‘free’…they were complimentary. There’s a difference. The complimentary drinks were meant to be limited, but people just take the proverbial’ **** Not surprised it’s been pulled.”

TUI responded to one user: “Thank you for your comment. We’re sorry to hear of your disappointment with the changes to our long-haul service. This change helps us focus on the things that matter most, like keeping fares competitive, maintaining great value overall, and giving customers more flexibility in how they spend onboard.

“Soft drinks will remain free, customers will still get a complimentary beer or wine with their main meal, and there’ll be a wider range of alcoholic drinks available to buy, so people can choose exactly what they want during their flight. Thanks!”

Last month, it emerged that TUI Airways was ranked among the worst airlines for UK flight punctuality, with one route having an average delay of more than three-quarters of an hour.

The leisure carrier’s departures from UK airports were an average of 20 minutes and 24 seconds behind schedule in 2025, according to analysis of Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data.

The least punctual of its routes with at least 100 flights was from Birmingham to the Greek island of Zante, which had an average delay of 46 minutes.

Rory Boland, editor of consumer magazine Which? Travel, said it was “unacceptable” that airline passengers “continue to face unreliable service” amid fare rises. He went on: “Airlines must do more to support travellers during delays, including clearly communicating their rights and eligibility for compensation.

“It’s worth putting in a claim with your airline if you think it’s responsible – and escalating the complaint if it refuses to pay.” TUI Airways is owned by TUI Group, which also operates the UK’s second-largest package holiday company.

Many of its holiday customers use the airline, which serves more than 20 UK airports.

The punctuality analysis took into account all scheduled and chartered departures from UK airports by the 34 airlines which operated more than 2,500 of these flights last year. Cancelled flights were not included.

Aage Dunhaupt, TUI Group’s director of communications, said: “We fully understand that for holidaymakers, every minute counts. Minimising delays remains a top priority, and our teams work continuously to improve operational performance across our network.”

Mr Dunhaupt said the airline makes “a conscious choice” to operate flights “wherever possible, even if they are delayed, rather than cancelling them”, as this ensures passengers reach their destination “rather than facing the risk of extended disruption”.

He added: “If we were to follow broader industry practices of cancelling flights more readily, our punctuality ranking would improve significantly.

“However, this would come at the expense of our customers.”

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The key global economic risks to watch in the second half of 2026

The second half of the year rests on a delicate chain of dominoes, according to a new briefing from Oxford Economics, and whether the US-Iran peace agreement holds is the factor that determines how the rest fall.


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“Its durability will determine whether the global economy gets an energy-driven disinflation tailwind or absorbs a second oil shock,” stated chief global economist Ryan Sweet in the report, calling the deal “the key domino that will determine whether other risks are amplified or dampened”.

The consultancy expects the global economy to accelerate, forecasting annualised growth of 3.1% in the second half against an estimated 1.6% in the first, powered chiefly by cheaper oil feeding through to household incomes, although Sweet puts the odds of reaching a durable deal at “a coin flip”.

If the truce holds, Oxford Economics sees Brent crude averaging in the low $70s per barrel, easing inflation and financial conditions across emerging markets and tech valuations.

If it breaks, the consequences would not stay contained to the oil market.

Early on Wednesday, the US military attacked Iran after it said Tehran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait. The regional crossfire raised the risk that the interim agreement to halt fighting in the war could break down. However, the exchange of fire followed a pattern of similar attacks during the deal’s shaky ceasefire, and neither country immediately signalled it would step away from the negotiating table.

Oil prices reacted to the attacks by increasing more than 3% by Wednesday morning, with international benchmark Brent trading above $76 a barrel.

“A peace deal breakdown won’t just raise oil prices, it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the US midterms and Israeli elections […] the cascade runs fast,” Sweet stated.

A coinflip with a $20 spread

Not everyone shares Oxford Economics’ outlook for oil prices.

Morgan Stanley’s mid-year outlook, published in May, forecast crude climbing back to roughly $90 a barrel by the end of the year, a gap of some $20 compared with Oxford Economics’ forecast that amounts to two different bets on the same peace process.

The World Bank is also more cautious, forecasting Brent crude to average about $94 a barrel this year while warning that global GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026.

Reflecting on how the recent exchange of attacks is testing the fragile truce, Sweet said, “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a good bellwether. The deal committed to fully restoring traffic through the chokepoint within 30 days, making mid-July the first hard deadline,” he explained.

“A sustained return to 75% or more of pre-war traffic by mid-July would increase the odds that the agreement is holding and vice versa,” Sweet concluded.

The other indicator, he says, is whether Iran formally invokes the accord’s Lebanon clause over Israeli strikes, and whether its response comes in military or rhetorical form.

Tariffs, trade and AI

Trade is another risk that could reshape the outlook.

US Section 122 tariffs are due to expire on 24 July, but Washington has already lined up replacement levies under Section 301. Oxford Economics expects the changes to push effective tariff rates higher from late July as the US seeks to maintain monthly tariff revenues of between $25 billion (€21.8bn) and $30 billion (€26.2bn).

Europe is also taking a tougher stance. The European Commission has more than 50 trade-defence investigations open against China, up from 17 a year ago, and plans to unveil a broader economic security strategy by September.

These trade tensions also feed into the AI boom that has powered financial markets this year.

Oxford Economics notes the US AI industry depends heavily on semiconductors and other hardware shipped from Northeast and Southeast Asia, the regions with the most to lose from any further disruption to commodities passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the umbrella body for central banks, warned that the AI boom increasingly rests on opaque “circular financing” between chipmakers, cloud giants and artificial intelligence labs, as well as lightly regulated private credit, where lending to the sector has quadrupled in five years.

The BIS’s Asia-Pacific chief, Zhang Tao, cautioned that the sector’s reliance on non-bank funding means an AI downturn could trigger a sharper and faster correction than a traditional banking crisis.

Sweet modelled what such a reversal could look like.

“We have created a so-called tech bust scenario where US technology stocks fall by 25% over the course of a year,” he told Euronews.

According to Sweet, such a shock would cause the US economy to “grind to a halt”, spilling over to technology exporters and investor sentiment worldwide, leaving global growth 1.1 percentage points below Oxford Economics’ baseline next year.

Central banks, ballots and the calendar

The final dominoes are policy and politics.

Oxford Economics expects the major central banks to prove more dovish than financial markets currently anticipate, though they could pivot quickly if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falters or AI-input prices signal supply stress.

The nearest test is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision under chair Kevin Warsh later this month, coming on the heels of June’s soft jobs report.

Beyond that lie November’s US midterms and Israel’s general election, due by late October, both of which could influence the Middle East peace process. In September, German state elections could also test the coalition behind Germany’s fiscal policy, a key driver of the eurozone economy.

Oxford Economics also flags genuine upside, from stronger AI-driven productivity to an EU economy that weathered the second quarter surprisingly well.

Whether the resilience in Europe is real will show up first in Germany and in credit data, Sweet argues.

“If corporates were absorbing margin compression from the jump in energy prices without cutting investment and drawing down credit lines, that would strengthen the case that underlying momentum in the economy is better than we expected,” he told Euronews, adding that a contraction in eurozone bank lending would push the other way.

It is important to highlight that the typical Oxford Economics forecast miss is nearly a full percentage point, and the range around this assessment in particular is wider than usual.

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Heavy Machine Guns Appear On Key Russian Commercial Tanker In Baltic

One of Russia’s commercially flagged vessels in the Baltic has appeared armed with heavy machine guns, and it isn’t just any cargo hauler. The weapons fit is likely intended to provide close-in protection against naval drone attacks but is also evidence of increasingly bold measures taken by Moscow to ensure that military bases in its strategically important Kaliningrad exclave continue to be supported. After all, the ship in question, the Marshal Vasilevskiy, is a highly strategic one — Russia’s only floating storage and regasification vessel — that plays a key role in supporting Kaliningrad.

This comes at the same time that Russia ramps up efforts to protect its notorious ‘shadow fleet,’ used to circumvent Western sanctions on oil exports, despite efforts to interdict it.

Evidence of the armed tanker development was brought to light in an exclusive report from Holger Roonemaa, an investigative journalist working for Delfi Estonia, an Estonia-based news website.

Roonemaa secured the release of imagery from the Estonian Border Guard showing the Marshal Vasilevskiy operating in the Baltic Sea last month, with machine gun positions on either side of the deck above the bridge.

A close-up view of one of the heavy machine guns on the bridge of the Marshal Vasilevskiy. PPA/Delfi Estonia, with permission

The Marshal Vasilevskiy, a 945-foot liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker of 118,000 gross tonnage, was spotted by an Estonian Border Guard surveillance aircraft as it was sailing past Estonia’s western islands toward the Russian port of Bolshoi Bor in the Gulf of Finland.

The sandbagged gun positions were armed with 12.7mm Kord heavy machine guns, a belt-fed weapon that is used by infantry, as well as being mounted on vehicles and ships.

KORD Heavy Machine Gun thumbnail

KORD Heavy Machine Gun




The Marshal Vasilevskiy is not a part of the shadow fleet, but it has been subject to sanctions. Moreover, this appears to be the first direct evidence of Russia installing weapons on a civilian ship in the Baltic region.

The vessel is owned by the Gazprom company and regularly supplies Kaliningrad with natural gas, with four such voyages identified since last August.

A rear view of the Marshal Vasilevskiy. PPA/Delfi Estonia, with permission

Almost certainly, the guns on the Marshal Vasilevskiy are intended to help defend against Ukrainian drone attacks.

The Kord fires at a rate of 600-650 rounds per minute and has an effective range of around 2,000 yards.

Earlier this month, Ukraine used aerial drones to attack the prestigious Russian Navy base at Kronstadt, near St. Petersburg, in what appears to have been the first strike of its kind against the Baltic Fleet.

By targeting Kronstadt, Ukraine signaled the opening up of a new front in its drone war with Russia, namely against the Baltic Fleet while it is in port.

Previously, Ukraine’s naval campaign had focused overwhelmingly on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Many successful attacks have been recorded against Black Sea Fleet vessels and facilities, forcing the general evacuation of Russian naval assets from occupied Crimea and to bases in Russia proper. Ukrainian attacks on Russian-linked shipping have also extended, to a more limited extent, into the Mediterranean.

These attacks have also involved a growing and increasingly advanced array of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs, or ‘drone boats’) as well as uncrewed underwater vessels (UUVs).

Ukraine’s proven ability to launch long-range aerial drone attacks, as seen in the video below, as well as to bring kamikaze drones closer to Russian targets, and strike them from short range, underscores the potential vulnerability of Russian tankers working the Baltic, too.

While Ukraine, as far as is known, has not launched any USV or UUV attacks in the Baltic, it would certainly be within its capabilities to do so.

At the same time, Russia has no doubt also considered the possibility of an Operation Spiderweb-type attack in the Baltic, in which short-range drones could be launched covertly, in mass, from locations much closer to their targets.

In the same way that Operation Spiderweb used commercial trucks as covert launch platforms for one-way aerial attack drones, any suitable vessel could be used in the same way by Ukraine in the Baltic, whether to launch aerial drones, USVs, or UUVs.

In this context, the Marshal Vasilevskiy would be a particularly prized tanker. It is currently Russia’s only floating storage and regasification vessel, a ship that takes on board super-cooled LNG and then converts it into gas that is then fed into pipelines, in this case, in Kaliningrad.

As well as countering potential drone attacks, putting guns on the Marshal Vasilevskiy sends a signal to NATO forces not to interfere with it. Warning shots could be fired to send a message to boarding parties or helicopters. Russia’s willingness to use warning shots was demonstrated in the English Channel earlier this month. With the Kord gun, the vessel could bring down a helicopter with ease, forcing a boarding force to kinetically attack the ship before attempting boarding.

Typically, the crew of a vessel such as the Marshal Vasilevskiy would not be trained to operate heavy machine guns. This raises the likelihood that the ship’s crew includes members of the Russian military or, more likely, the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia’s principal security agency. It is not inconceivable that man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) could also be stowed below decks to defend against an aerial drone attack.

The development comes as Russia takes increasingly forceful measures to protect the vessels of its shadow fleet. These provide Russia with a critical lifeline, allowing oil to be sold and funds generated to continue the country’s war against Ukraine. Both China and India regularly accept such deliveries.

Over the past year, European authorities have intercepted shadow fleet tankers on several occasions, typically on the grounds of flying a false flag or for being suspected of damaging undersea cables.

The Russian shadow fleet vessel Smyrtos is boarded by Royal Marines from 42 Commando and U.K. law enforcement officers on June 14. Crown Copyright

There have been previous reports indicating that shadow-fleet oil tankers regularly include former mercenaries and soldiers among their crews.

Holger Roonemaa has helped establish that almost half of the “passengers” listed as going aboard the Marshal Vasilevskiy also have backgrounds in the Russian military, the National Guard, and/or the FSB.

At the same time, Russian Navy warships are increasingly used for escort, monitoring, and security missions for shadow fleet tankers as they transit the Baltic Sea carrying sanctioned Russian oil to markets prepared to bypass Western restrictions. You can read more about this here.

Returning to this vessel, the appearance of heavy machine guns on it is significant because it illustrates Russia’s militarization of civilian shipping supporting critical operations. There are many historical precedents of merchant vessels being armed during wartime, but it remains unusual to see a commercially flagged tanker openly carrying heavy machine guns in this region. In areas with piracy, it is not uncommon for security crews on vessels to be equipped with small arms, but this is a different kind of weapon, and the ship is operating in waters with no piracy risk attached.

The Marshal Vasilevskiy photographed in port in 2019. Kees Torn

In practical terms, a pair of Kord machine guns could be effective against small drones or boats at close range, but would offer little protection against larger, coordinated attacks, let alone modern anti-ship missiles.

With that in mind, it’s possible Russia might further boost the weapons fit of the Marshal Vasilevskiy to provide a more comprehensive defense. After all, this vessel is a critical asset, due to its unique capabilities in the Russian merchant fleet, and its special role supporting Kaliningrad. This makes it a strategic vulnerability that demands protection. If lost, it could have an asymmetric impact, threatening the ability to keep military assets in the exclave operational.

More broadly, this is evidence of Russia’s growing concern that logistics vessels, including civilian ones supporting critical infrastructure, could become targets in the Baltic region, too, as the war increasingly extends beyond traditional battlefields and further from Ukraine.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Thomas Newdick is a staff writer at TWZ, where he covers military aviation, defense technology, weapons systems, and international security. Based in Berlin, Germany, he reports on conflicts, military modernization efforts, and emerging aerospace technologies around the world, with a particular interest in airpower and its role in contemporary warfare. His reporting is informed by deep expertise in modern and historical airpower, particularly in Europe, with a focus on military aviation, air campaigns, and aerospace developments across the continent and beyond.




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Russia claims it captured the strategic key Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivk | Russia-Ukraine war

Russian forces have claimed capture of Kostiantynivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region after roughly a nine-month battle. The city sits within Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” a defensive network of cities forming Donbas’s main defensive line. Ukrainian officials denied the city fell.

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Key details as UK travellers going to Europe ‘have to pay new £17 fee’ in 2026

Key details as UK travellers going to Europe ‘have to pay new £17 fee’ in 2026 – The Mirror


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Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s relationship so far in key moments

Taylor’s 12th album, The Life of a Showgirl, dropped in October 2025, with a flurry of lovestruck lyrics about her now fiancé.

She reminisced about date nights spent on ferris wheels, and dreamt of raising kids in a house with “a driveway with a basketball hoop”. There’s also an entire song about his, ahem, manhood.

On the promo trail, she was peppered with questions about the wedding, but gave away very little, except to tell the BBC’s Graham Norton it wouldn’t be a small affair.

Since those interviews, Team Taylor has gone quiet.

A rumoured wedding date of 13 June 2026 passed without incident. A few days later, a flurry of activity at Swift’s Rhode Island mansion had fans speculating that a bachelorette party was in full swing.

Then the New York Times reported that Swift had hired the entirety of Madison Square Gardens for a mega event just before Independence Day weekend.

According to officials with knowledge of the booking, the plans involve an intimate gathering of about 100 people on Thursday 2 July, followed by a more extravagant celebration with about 1,000 guests the next day.

TV cameras have captured trucks unloading drapes, lights, food and even a “40-inch mirror ball”.

Tabloids are speculating about wedding performers and bridesmaids. – but we’ll only know for sure, when Taylor decides it’s time.

And given that she’s recently been spotted at New York’s Electric Lady recording studios, there’s even speculation that confirmation could come in the form of a wedding song.

Watch this space.

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F1 Q&A: Russell’s controversial pole, Ferrari’s underwhelming Austria, Verstappen key to driver market and Williams’ regression

Mercedes’ George Russell took his second win of the season with victory from pole position at the Austrian Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen recovered from a crash in the final part of qualifying to finish second at Red Bull’s home race, with championship leader Kimi Antonelli in third.

Russell’s win moves him back up to second in the drivers’ standings, 40 points behind team-mate Antonelli.

BBC F1 correspondent Andrew Benson answers your latest questions before this weekend’s British Grand Prix at Silverstone.

I think a pole position under a yellow flag sets a dangerous precedent, because it’s clear that from now on, everyone will continue to push hard after a small slow down, or else their lap will be cancelled. I’d be curious to hear your opinion – Lorenzo

George Russell’s pole position at the Austrian Grand Prix, the foundation for his victory on Sunday, came about in controversial circumstances.

According to the rules, Russell did nothing wrong.

Marshals trackside initially waved a single yellow flag when Max Verstappen crashed at Turn Nine.

Kimi Antonelli mis-read the light board as a double yellow, and backed out of his lap – the correct response for what he thought to be the case. Under a double yellow, drivers have to “slow down and be prepared to stop”.

But under a single yellow, a driver does not have to abandon their lap. They only have to not set a fastest time in the relevant section of the track.

Russell complied with this, but the rest of his lap was fast enough to put him on pole anyway.

The concern here is less the specifics of these rules, but whether the correct flag was shown in the circumstances.

The answer to that has to be no.

Verstappen crashed at the fastest corner on the track, which is taken at close to 140mph.

Turn Nine is notoriously challenging, with its downhill entry, and an exit kerb that’s easy to over-run.

Both Verstappen and Antonelli questioned the decision to show only a single yellow at the time, when Verstappen’s car was in the barrier at this corner as other drivers were seeking to set what would be their fastest laps of the weekend.

Verstappen described it as “quite crazy”.

Antonelli said: “There was a car in the wall in a fast corner. I don’t know why it didn’t go double-yellow straight away, because it’s a super-quick corner, and if you go off at the same time, it can end up very badly. That was a bit confusing.

“For sure it’s something that needs to be reviewed, especially when it happens in a high-speed corner.

“If it’s a slow-speed [corner], single yellow can be OK but fast corners should be double yellow straight away.”

To underline the point, within 20 seconds, race control upgraded the flag to a double yellow, but everyone had completed their laps by then.

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